Matchups: Worth Pondering 1:00PM ET Games
New England @ Buffalo
Although his team lost and his fantasy stats didn't overwhelm, Tom Brady put on a passing clinic in last Sunday's game at Baltimore. Tom was Terrific, relentlessly roasting Ravens RCB Cary Williams and throwing for a season-high 335 yards while both Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd cleared the century mark. Brady ranks a disappointing 13th in fantasy quarterback scoring due to a low TD rate on which he's a lock to improve. Since the Pats so often design matchup-based game plans and Buffalo's defense has been most exposable in the back end, it's reasonable to think playcaller Josh McDaniels will draw up a fantasy-friendly Week 4 approach. Through three games, the Bills have faced the weakest slate of quarterbacks in football (Mark Sanchez, Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassel) and allowed them to combine for 69-of-112 (61.6 percent) passing, 804 yards (7.19 YPA), and six touchdowns. Brady is a little bit better than those guys. A blowup game is imminent. ... Brady's target distribution on the season: Lloyd 33, Welker 26, Rob Gronkowski 18, Julian Edelman 15, Aaron Hernandez (injured) and Stevan Ridley 8, Danny Woodhead and Deion Branch 3. ... Lloyd is the No. 1 receiver in McDaniels' attack and will play most of Sunday's snaps against in-over-his-head Bills rookie RCB Stephon Gilmore. Per Pro Football Focus, Gilmore has allowed 12 of the 20 passes thrown at him to be complete for 228 yards and two touchdowns. Keep in mind the bottom-dweller QBs Gilmore has faced and put Lloyd in your fantasy lineup.
The Welker Snap Count Controversy has fast become yesterday's news. The Pats simply need him. Hernandez (ankle) is out until Week 5 at earliest, and Edelman will not play at Buffalo due to a mysterious hand injury. Welker played 73-of-83 (88 percent) downs in Week 3 and may be a 100-percent player against the Bills. Set to face off with oft-burned slot CB Leodis McKelvin, Welker is a must-start WR2 in all leagues. ... Shake off Gronk's slow start and keep him in your lineup. His stat lines in four career meetings with Buffalo: 8-108-2, 7-109-2, 4-54-2, 3-43-1. ... Branch was re-signed because he knows the Patriots' offense. He's a rotating role player and unworthy of a fantasy bench spot. ... Stevan Ridley's underutilization at Baltimore was obviously game-plan based as the Pats went no-huddle heavy against a heavyweight Ravens front seven, attacking it in the hurry-up. Don't read into Danny Woodhead's temporary bump in touches, or Ridley's weak fantasy performance as signs of things to come. Leave Woodhead on the waiver wire, ignore Brandon Bolden's Week 3 goal-line score, and start Ridley in this projected high-scoring affair.
Friday Update: Gronkowski was a late addition to the injury report on Friday and is now listed as questionable with a hip injury. I don't buy that he's in danger of missing Sunday's game, but I don't expect the secretive Patriots to give any further information, either. Check back Sunday morning. If Gronkowski is active -- and I anticipate he will be -- start him with utmost confidence.
At 50.5 points, Pats-Bills has Week 4's second highest over-under. The experts expect scoring in this one, and that's good news for fantasy players involved. ... Stevie Johnson is the first Bill we look to as the featured receiver in Chan Gailey's Pistol Spread. Johnson has a touchdown in four straight games dating back to last year, and six TDs the last nine times he's taken the field. In two 2011 meetings with a similar-looking New England secondary, Johnson dropped lines of 8-94-1 and 4-40-1. He's found pay dirt in three of his past four games against the Patriots. That's some encouraging historical data. Trot him out. ... Ryan Fitzpatrick is fifth in fantasy quarterback points, benefiting from Cleveland's Joe Haden-less pass defense, Kansas City's underachieving group, and Week 1 comeback mode against the Jets. Fitz annually strings together fast starts followed by inevitable late-season fades. While Fitzpatrick remains a big stretch as a QB1, he's worth riding in two-quarterback leagues as long as he's hot. The Pats' pass defense is better than it was last year, but hardly one to avoid with just four sacks and a 5:2 TD-to-INT ratio against through three weeks. Only Tampa Bay and Washington have allowed more completions of 20-plus yards.
Fitzpatrick's updated 2012 target distribution: Johnson 26, Donald Jones 16, Scott Chandler 15, C.J. Spiller 8, Tashard Choice and T.J. Graham 6. ... Though Chandler is never a terrible bet for a red-zone score, he hurts you when he doesn't come up with one. He found pay dirt in the first two games, then didn't last week and finished with 22 yards on two catches against the Browns. He's a desperation play. ... Annual offseason puff-piece all-star Jones has played in 26 career games and cleared 55 receiving yards twice. Leave him on the wire. ... Graham can fly downfield and has big-play ability, but is largely a clear-out route runner in the old Lee Evans role. He runs "goes" to stretch the defense so Johnson and others can secure the ball more cleanly underneath. ... The Bills' Week 4 backfield outlook is shakier than ever, although our tentative expectation is Fred Jackson (knee) will start as Spiller (shoulder) plays a "limited" role off the bench. Jackson is shaping up as the best bet for fantasy production after seeming to turn a corner in his recovery Thursday. Spiller is No. 1 in running back scoring through three games, but has the look of a dicey flex. As well as Spiller has played, though, he might only need 6-10 touches to be a worthy start.
Friday Update: The commentary here all remains relevant, but just to keep you up to date: Jackson and Spiller are both listed as questionable on the injury report. They also both practiced on a limited basis Friday. I think they'll both be active against New England. I would start Jackson as an RB2 and think long and hard about putting Spiller into a flex spot. These guys are playmakers in a projected high-scoring affair.
Score Prediction: Patriots 27, Bills 21
San Francisco @ NY Jets
Darrelle Revis is out for the season with a torn left ACL, and his loss immediately morphs the Jets from a red-light fantasy pass-defense matchup into a unit to fear no more. Revis has missed four career games. In the three matchups when New York's opponent wasn't trotting out Brian Brohm at quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chad Henne, and Ben Roethlisberger combined to complete 62-of-102 passes (60.8 percent) for 766 yards (7.51 YPA), and a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Revis' loss is devastating because Rex Ryan's scheme was constructed with his man-cover skills in mind. Revis eliminated one side of the field and enemy No. 1 receivers, while Ryan's other ten defenders played aggressively, allowing the Jets to compensate for lacking other typically crucial elements like elite outside-edge rushers and ball-hawking center-field safeties with range. This defense will be ordinary going forward. Attack it with your fantasy players. ... Even pre-Revis ACL, New York was springing leaks against the run. The Jets are a lowly 28th in run defense, serving up a generous 4.60 yards a carry. They've allowed four rushing TDs in three games. Don't sweat Frank Gore's slow Week 3 game, which occurred because the 49ers unpredictably fell behind the Vikings 17-3 at halftime. San Francisco is certain to be more competitive in this game, allowing Gore to resume racking up attempts. He's still averaging 5.87 YPC and remains a strong RB2.
The Jets' defense is inherently vulnerable to tight ends because its strength for so long has been outside corner play. Safeties Yeremiah Bell and LaRon Landry are also both coverage liabilities. Maintaining his tear from late in the 2011 season, Vernon Davis has 41 catches for 705 yards (17.2 YPR), and nine touchdowns in his last eight games. Proficient multipliers know that's an 82-1,410-18 line if extrapolated to a full season. Pro Football Focus also grades Davis as a top-eight run blocking tight end through three weeks. Best tight end in the NFL? ... Antonio Cromartie will likely match up with No. 1 wide receivers from here on out, replacing Revis, but "Cro" lacks Revis' versatility and can't cover the slot. Michael Crabtree will continue to be an underwhelming, low-upside WR3, but he plays inside enough to avoid Cromartie's coverage for most of Sunday. ... Cro is more likely to deal with Mario Manningham and Randy Moss down the sidelines. This is not a great matchup for either of them, and it would require a Moss or Manningham injury for the other one to warrant a start-‘em recommendation. They are rotating No. 3 pass-game options in a run-first offense. No, thank you. ... Game manager Alex Smith has yet to hit the 230-yard plateau in three tries, and San Francisco's passing attack has remained extremely conservative in terms of taking shots downfield. Smith is worth a look in two-quarterback leagues this week, but that's all.
To no one's surprise, Mark Sanchez has crashed back to Earth since his fluky, three-touchdown opener against a Buffalo defense that first-year coordinator Dave Wannstedt clearly didn't have ready to play. In the two games since, Sanchez is 31-of-72 (43.1 percent) for 444 yards (6.17 YPA), and a 2:3 TD-to-INT ratio. On its last 22 possessions, the Jets' offense has generated one touchdown and 12 punts. This offense is as bad as we all thought it would be. It will be interesting to see just how putrid Sanchez and the Jets' statistics become after a date with the 49ers' defense. In the meantime, keep Sanchez glued to waiver wires. ... Santonio Holmes dog-walked overmatched Dolphins RCB Richard Marshall in Week 3, burning Marshall for the majority of Holmes' 9-147 stat line. I wouldn't bet on Holmes coming anywhere close to those numbers against Vic Fangio's defense, which plays physical press coverage on the outside and will have Sanchez running for his life in the front end. There isn't a Jets skill-position player worth a fantasy start in Week 4.
Jeremy Kerley has been New York's top all-purpose threat in the season's first three games. With Stephen Hill (hamstring) out and Kerley set to start, I'd say he was worth a WR3 dice roll if the Jets weren't playing the Niners. Grab Kerley in 14-team leagues, but leave him on your bench. ... Dustin Keller is questionable to play with a hamstring injury, and has had too many setbacks for fantasy comfort. Would he even last two quarters? Ryan expressed lingering doubts about Keller's health on Friday. ... Shonn Greene is on the brink of losing his job to Bilal Powell. Powell played more snaps than Greene in Week 2, before essentially rotating with Greene on early downs and getting all of the passing-game work last Sunday. While the two are similarly plodding runners -- often difficult to tell apart with the football in their hands -- Powell at least has a clue when it comes to blitz protection and catching the ball, and can identify a cutback lane when the offensive line opens one. Greene runs like he's overweight and blind. Pick up Powell and trade Greene as soon as humanly possible. Don't start either of them on Sunday.
Score Prediction: 49ers 20, Jets 6
Seattle @ St. Louis
Seahawks-Rams has the lowest over-under of Week 4, which isn't a surprise because defense is both teams' strength and the offenses largely lack explosiveness. The lone fantasy must-start is Marshawn Lynch, who leads the NFC in touches and now faces a St. Louis defense allowing the seventh most yards per carry in football. The Rams have already given up five rushing TDs. As far as I'm concerned, Lynch is a top-eight back in standard scoring leagues. Going forward, I'd rank only Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Ryan Mathews, Darren McFadden, and Jamaal Charles ahead of him. ... Golden Tate should feel a little bit embarrassed this week. He was an absolute slouch on Monday night's last-second, blown-call touchdown* catch in Seattle's win* over Green Bay, pushing a Packers defender to the ground before the jump ball and getting overpowered by S M.D. Jennings for what most certainly should have been an interception. I've always been enamored by Tate's skill set -- I watched every game he played at Notre Dame -- but I wouldn't start him in fantasy because of his impressive* Week 3 box score. Tate did play 50-of-61 snaps (82.0 percent) against the Packers and has clearly bypassed Braylon Edwards as Seattle's No. 1 split end. He'll line up often across from Cortland Finnegan on Sunday, and Finnegan has been an early-season shutdown corner for St. Louis.
Tate is still the choice if you're dying to play a Seahawks non-running back. Sidney Rice has struggled to get open and seen his snaps reduced as a result. It's fair to wonder if the buildup of injuries over his first five NFL seasons has sapped Rice's playmaking ability. He's been a 66-percent player the past two games and has a combined four catches for 55 scoreless yards. ... Russell Wilson's target distribution in Weeks 1-3: Rice 15, Tate 11, Edwards 9, TEs Anthony McCoy and Zach Miller 8, Doug Baldwin 7, Ben Obomanu 4, Lynch 3. ... Dump Miller for a TE2 with upside. ... Baldwin's return from a shoulder injury could help Seattle's offense, but probably not your fantasy team. ... Wilson is going to remain a disappointing QB2 until the Seahawks remove his training wheels and he starts playing better under duress. Wilson is averaging 25 pass attempts per game. For comparison, Christian Ponder is averaging 33. It makes a big difference, especially when Wilson is last in the league in yards per attempt.
Seattle eliminates run games and puts clamps on perimeter passing attacks. They force pass offenses to work the middle, where Danny Amendola does his dirty work. Tied with A.J. Green for fourth in the NFL in targets, Amendola is the Rams' No. 1 offensive option. He's also got the best matchup of St. Louis' receivers as a slot guy who will face 31-year-old slot CB Marcus Trufant while Brandon Gibson and whomever else the Rams trot out at wideout deal with physical outside cover men Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman. Start Amendola in PPR and consider him as a low-end WR3 in standard. ... Sam Bradford is the No. 25 fantasy quarterback and 1-for-3 in terms of productive fantasy games. With Barry Richardson and Wayne Hunter as his bookend tackles against a Seattle defense that sacked Aaron Rodgers eight times last week, Bradford will be 1-for-4 after Sunday. ... Steven Jackson is still a high-octane rushing force when healthy, but he clearly is not and has a brutal Week 4 matchup. He gets Arizona and Miami after this. Jackson will have to show something special to be more than flex-worthy over the next three games. ... Gibson isn't worth your time. He's a below-average talent and Seattle will shut him down. ... Daryl Richardson is a handcuff. Whereas a banged-up S-Jax received 13 touches in Week 3, Richardson got five.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 20, Rams 13
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Carolina @ Atlanta
With Steve Smith entrenched as Cam Newton's go-to guy, there's a weekly ongoing competition of sorts for targets behind him. In Weeks 1 and 3, Greg Olsen was Cam's preferred secondary option. In Week 2 against the Saints, LaFell led the way. Both Olsen and LaFell may struggle for consistency until one clearly emerges, and I’m not so sure one will. Olsen would be a better Week 4 bet, but I wouldn't feel great about either in terms of reliability. This game's high-scoring projection (48.5 over-under) does give Olsen and LaFell plenty of individual upside. ... Newton's 2012 target distribution: Olsen 24, Smith and LaFell 18, Mike Tolbert 10, Louis Murphy 8, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart 1. ... The focal point of Carolina's vertical-based passing attack, Smith has at least 86 yards in each of the first three games and would have back-to-back-to-back 100-yard efforts if not for Giants CB Corey Webster's pass interference last Thursday. Smith will draw Falcons RCB Dunta Robinson in coverage for the majority of Sunday's snaps after burning Robinson for most of his 11 grabs and 191 yards in last year's two meetings with Atlanta. Smith is an elite receiver play in Week 4.
Williams' 3.81 YPC average accurately represents his skill level nowadays. While Williams can still motor upfield with daylight, he's lost short-area quicks and never excelled at pushing the pile. He's a pedestrian talent at this point, and we've now learned our lesson that Williams is not a strong RB2 even when Stewart misses games. His stats in two chances to be Carolina's feature back: 17 carries for 49 yards (2.88 YPC), and three catches for 28 yards. No TDs. ... Cam missed too many open throws against the Giants, and should have had at least two more picks. He let his emotions get the best of him toward the end of the game. The ten-day layoff and return of Stewart -- the real linchpin of Carolina's read-option offense -- should help Newton and the Panthers get back on track. Ultimately, though, I think how Newton responds in Atlanta to last week's adversity will steer the ship in the direction of how his season will go. We'll find out a lot about Cam Newton at the Georgia Dome. I'd definitely still start him in fantasy. ... Stewart's return from an ankle injury should breathe back life into Carolina's rushing attack. Stewart is a really strong all-purpose back and has a consistent impact on the Panthers' offense, but he's not a consistent fantasy producer due to underutilization in terms of workload. Dating back to last season, Stewart hasn't exceeded 13 touches in his last five games. He has topped 14 touches just once in his last nine. Stewart needs Williams to get injured in order to be a reliable fantasy contributor. He's a dicey flex option.
Carolina's defensive front seven was consistently blown off the ball in last Thursday's lopsided loss to the Giants. And New York's offensive line would rarely be mistaken for an overpowering run-blocking unit. The Panthers have built their defense with the old Tim Ruskell design, paying big bucks to and using high picks on linebackers while attempting to get by with mediocrity in the front and back. The results speak for themselves. Carolina's pass rush is inconsistent at best, replacement-level receivers like Ramses Barden run wide open through the secondary, and the Panthers can't stop the run. The Falcons will pour points on this whippable unit. ... While starting Michael Turner in such a favorable matchup makes sense on paper, be aware of his diminishing role. Jacquizz Rodgers led Atlanta's backfield in Week 3 snaps and received just one fewer touch. Rodgers and Turner rotated evenly when the game was in doubt, and this is likely to be a 50:50 timeshare going forward. Turner did the large majority of his damage in clock-killing blowout mode, when San Diego's defense was worn down at the end of the game. Turner and Rodgers are just flex options going forward. Be sure to sell Turner high if he scores another TD this week.
Matt Ryan ranks second to RG3 in fantasy quarterback scoring through three games. He's not slowing down, either. While Carolina's defense has allowed only three passing scores on the young year, it's served up a combined 68.5 completion rate to Josh Freeman, Eli Manning, and Drew Brees, and has been consistently burnable when offenses opt to attack it with the pass rather than run. In an offense now philosophically reliant on the pass, Ryan is destined for more success. ... Carolina is leaving sometimes-shadow corner Chris Gamble at left cornerback this year, while fifth-round rookie Josh Norman has been eaten alive on the other side. (See Barden.) Julio Jones usually squares off with right corners (Norman) as Roddy White deals with LCBs. I thought about stopping short of guaranteeing a monster game for Julio, and then I thought again. It will happen. ... I recall watching Tony Gonzalez two seasons ago and observing that he'd lost a step. I still think he plays slow. But it does not matter. Gonzo gets open at will, and Atlanta's revised offense is keeping his fantasy value elite. Gonzalez ranks second in fantasy tight end points and is an every-week starter. ... Even in Atlanta's fantasy juggernaut pass offense, Harry Douglas has been targeted nine times in three games. Leave Douglas on the wire.
Score Prediction: Falcons 30, Panthers 24
Minnesota @ Detroit
Despite a complete lack of vertical presence in Minnesota's passing game through three weeks, Christian Ponder is the No. 10 fantasy quarterback and poised to climb. During my offseason re-watching of Ponder, I recall thinking that he could solidify himself as a franchise signal caller and viable weekly fantasy option if he improved as a decision maker and completed just a few more shots downfield. Ponder has accomplished the former, turning in the most efficient early-season quarterback performances north of Atlanta. Ponder is second in the NFL in completion rate, fifth in passer rating, has accounted for five all-purpose TDs and no interceptions, and had his best game against the NFL's best defense. He's not just lighting up chumps. Already armed with over-the-middle and down-the-seam playmakers in Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph, Ponder finally has an ability to accomplish the latter with the return of deep threat Jerome Simpson from suspension. For Week 4 purposes, it certainly doesn't hurt that Ponder has a favorable matchup against a porous Lions back end in a likely shootout. With rushing stats, underrated arm strength, and a fast-improving supporting cast on his side, here are some Week 4 quarterbacks I'd strongly consider playing Ponder over: Romo, Rivers, both Mannings, Cutler, Fitzpatrick, and Schaub.
Don't be surprised if playcaller Bill Musgrave makes a concerted effort to get Simpson the football downfield Sunday just to put that vertical threat on tape and give future defensive coordinators something more to think about. Simpson is a boom-or-bust WR3. ... Ultimately, I think Simpson will settle in as largely a clear-out guy in Minnesota; a role player in the Devery Henderson/Lee Evans mold. A decoy who attracts perimeter coverage and makes life easier on Minnesota's offense down the middle. Harvin and Rudolph are the skill-position studs to whom Musgrave will continue to scheme to get the rock. ... Harvin leads the league in receptions, and including rushing attempts is on pace for 187 touches. Regardless of PPR or non, Harvin gives you a weekly fantasy advantage and the touchdowns will come. Start him every single week. ... Through three games, the Lions' defense has allowed 18 catches for 246 yards and three touchdowns to opposing tight ends. That's an average weekly stat line of 6/82/1. Start Rudolph. ... Fantasy owners are an impetuous bunch. And when their guys aren't scoring TDs, they get impulsive. Adrian Peterson is running as well as any back in football, but he hasn't found pay dirt since the opener. Put in a trade offer to the Peterson owner in your league before Sunday's kick. You might just come away with a steal.
I've been skeptical of Mikel Leshoure coming off his 2011 Achilles' tendon tear, and I think the jury remains out despite his 100-yard, one-touchdown debut. After watching the Titans-Lions tape, I saw a grinder whose most common run picked up three yards and a cloud of dust. Leshoure exhibited no big-play ability and needed 26 carries to arrive at the century mark, averaging under four yards a pop against a weak Titans run defense missing its middle linebacker. Leshoure's strength is pad level; he runs low to the ground for a big man and gets what's blocked. He also played extensively on passing downs. I expect Leshoure to be a volume-dependent fantasy back, and coming off that Achilles' I'm not sure he'll hold up to the volume. I envision him struggling against the Vikings' top-12 run defense. ... Because Leshoure is a downhill runner who packs some power and can move the chains, I do believe he'll have a positive impact on Detroit's play-action passing game. The Lions showed signs of taking advantage of it at Tennessee, and will almost certainly look to against a Vikings secondary that just lost a starting safety (Mistral Raymond) to a significant ankle injury. Expect a big game off the deep ball from Calvin Johnson. Although the deceptive Lions initially tried pushing him as a game-time decision, Matthew Stafford (hip) is going to play and needs to be in fantasy lineups indoors against Minnesota's below-average pass defense.
Friday Update: Leshoure was limited in practice with a groin ailment each day this week and is questionable on the injury report. While the beat writers in Detroit expect Leshoure to start against the Vikings, it's not uncommon for players coming off Achilles' tears to battle ongoing lower-body injuries soon after their return. Leshoure also dealt with an ankle injury in spring practices and a bum hamstring throughout camp. Keep an eye on the injury because it could develop into a long-range concern. While I'd anticipate him playing, Leshoure is a shaky Week 4 fantasy bet, in my opinion. He's got an injury, and he needs to get the ball a lot to accrue worthwhile production.
I keyed in on two Lions in Detroit-Tennessee: Leshoure on run plays and Brandon Pettigrew when Stafford went to pass. Pettigrew's textbook route is a 5-7 yard buttonhook post-up. He is not a seam stretcher. Pettigrew is a checkdown option if Stafford finds no one open downfield. Ignore if you don't pick up on this right away, but his pass-game usage reminds me of Chase Coffman at Missouri. Pettigrew lacks athleticism and produces only because he plays in a pass-heavy spread offense. I saw him drop two balls and lose a fumble against the Titans. He gained 61 yards on 12 targets. Start Pettigrew against the Vikings if it makes you happy, but watching him play makes me want to throw up a little. ... Joique Bell got late-game carries ahead of him, but I'm not so sure Bell has passed Kevin Smith on the depth chart. (Leshoure has, obviously.) Smith opened Week 3 as Detroit's third-down back. I'd hang onto Smith in fantasy leagues because I'm not convinced Leshoure's health will hold up. ... Stafford's target distribution on the year: Calvin 27, Pettigrew 25, Nate Burleson 21, Titus Young 12, Tony Scheffler 11, Smith 9, Bell 5, Leshoure 3. ... Burleson was held to 25 yards or fewer in each of his 2011 meetings with Minnesota, which isn't a surprise because he plays in the slot and so does Vikings top CB Antoine Winfield. ... Although Young's Week 3 touchdown came on a somewhat fluky 46-yard Hail Mary from backup QB Shaun Hill, making a huge crunch-time play like that can only help his standing in the coaches' eyes. His snaps were already surging; Young played 89-of-96 (92.7 percent) downs in Nashville. He's definitely worth a look as a WR3.
Score Prediction: Lions 34, Vikings 30
San Diego @ Kansas City
The Chargers desperately need LT Jared Gaither. A week after the bottom nearly fell out against Titans RE Kamerion Wimbley, undrafted rookie fill-in Mike Harris was routinely blown off the ball and simply ran around by Falcons RE John Abraham, who had Philip Rivers running for his life in Week 3. Snatching a 20-0 halftime lead, Atlanta's pass rush teed off on Rivers and torpedoed San Diego's passing game. Chiefs OLBs Tamba Hali and smoking-hot Justin Houston are capable of doing the same to Harris and annual protection liability RT Jeromey Clary. Rivers' long-range outlook brightens with Gaither returning to the practice field, but he needs to get to next week healthy first. Rivers would be on my fantasy bench in Week 4. ... Ryan Mathews is a guy I'd be trying to trade for before Sunday. Although falling behind big early limited his workload, and he showed rust on an early-game fumble, Mathews looked terrific against the Falcons. Mathews made explosive lateral cuts, ran through would-be tacklers, and rocketed into alleys as if he were shot from a cannon. Mathews is back, and Gaither's return will help him in the long run, too. Go get Mathews before it's too late, and start him if you've got him. Kansas City's run defense ranks 22nd in the NFL through three games. The Chiefs are serving up in excess of 4.7 yards per carry.
Friday Update: I wanted to address A.J. Smith's interview with the top columnist in town regarding Mathews' fumble, conveniently two days before the game. It's an obvious motivational tactic by Smith, who is Mathews' biggest supporter in the building after discarding hometown hero LaDainian Tomlinson and subsequently trading a boatload of picks to draft Mathews three Aprils ago. Smith is invested, and his primary concern is seeing to it that Mathews succeeds. He also took no steps to secure a competitive backup running back in the offseason. Smith is no dummy; San Diego's passing game is bordering on dysfunctional and the club badly needs its running game to step up. Mathews isn't in any danger of losing his job. Start him against Kansas City.
Kansas City has allowed a touchdown to a tight end in three consecutive games. While many a fantasy owner has expressed early-season concern with Antonio Gates, I think he'll be fine. He got dinged up in Week 1, was a last-minute scratch in Week 2, and in Week 3 no one in San Diego's passing offense produced. In Gates' last three meetings with K.C., he has 16 catches for 267 yards and three TDs. The protection is still a concern -- at least until Gaither comes back -- but I'd roll out Gates in Week 4 unless I had a Martellus Bennett or Kyle Rudolph. ... Malcom Floyd got open regularly against Falcons RCB Dunta Robinson in Week 3 but had an ugly drop and was simply missed by Rivers on multiple occasions as pressure forced him to throw off his back foot. This week, I like Floyd's chances of getting open against Chiefs RCB Stanford Routt. Whether Rivers gets time to accurately deliver passes is another issue entirely. ... Look for LCB Brandon Flowers to swallow up Robert Meachem, who's yet to clear 50 yards as a Bolt and is just a WR5. ... Though long an offseason puff-piece all star, Eddie Royal is nowhere near as spectacular in real life or fantasy. He's been targeted eight times on the season, reeling in six for a mere 29 yards.
While San Diego's run defense has continued to be largely formidable, the back end was badly exposed by Matt Ryan in Week 3. Ryan completed 30-of-40 passes for 275 yards and three TDs, shredding RCB Antoine Cason and slot CB Marcus Gilchrist. The No. 8 fantasy wideout thus far, Dwayne Bowe knows this group well. He's also sure to benefit from the reemergence of Jamaal Charles, whose decisive, game-breaking running will open up Kansas City's play-action passing game. ... Slot receiver Dexter McCluster's elbow injury appeared more severe at New Orleans than it apparently proved to be. He practiced on a limited basis this week and is questionable for Sunday. With just eight touches for 65 total yards, a lost fumble, and no touchdowns in his last two games, however, McCluster is fantasy bench material, no matter how favorable this matchup. ... Jon Baldwin is a guy to watch. Per Pro Football Focus, Baldwin's snaps played have goosed from 22 in Week 1 to 39 in Week 2 to 61 in Week 3. Kansas City's passing game may never prove voluminous enough to support more than Bowe as a consistent fantasy scorer, but Baldwin could develop into a viable bye-week WR3 if he continues to get enough playing time. He possesses big-play ability and could be another beneficiary of play-action game improvement.
Friday Update: Bowe is listed as questionable on the Week 4 injury report with a groin ailment. The injury occurred on Thursday and Bowe bounced back to practice on a limited basis Friday, which should bode well for his chances of playing against San Diego. Check back Sunday morning, but signs point toward Bowe getting the start in a favorable matchup.
Just as some prognosticators were leaving him for dead, Jamaal Charles graciously reminded us all that he's a top-five running talent at New Orleans. After viewing Chiefs-Saints, I'm going to say Charles is 95-98 percent back from his ACL. His feet are as fast as ever, he got skinny through tight spaces, he spotted cutback lanes quickly and knifed through them, and he accelerated on a dime. If we're picking nits, I think 2010 Charles blows past SS Roman Harper with more of a second gear on his third-quarter 91-yard score. Straight-line long speed is overrated anyway, though. I charted parts of the game, and found it notable that Charles played on five of Kansas City's first six third-down snaps, before Peyton Hillis' injury. Shaun Draughn handled some later passing downs, but the Chiefs are obviously willing to use Charles as a three-down workhorse. Hillis (ankle) doesn't look like he's returning soon, so Charles can expect monster workloads for the foreseeable future. For a special talent like Charles, matchups don't matter when he's getting the football 20-plus times a game. He's an elite fantasy commodity and locked-in RB1.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Chargers 20
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Tennessee @ Houston
Arian Foster leads the NFL in touches, and it's not close. He has 12 more than second-place NFL workhorse Marshawn Lynch. Tennessee's defense is soft up front and missing middle linebacker Colin McCarthy (ankle), although you don't need me to explain why you should start Foster. ... The details on the Titans are relevant for Ben Tate flex-optioners. Tennessee ranks 29th versus the run and is being routinely attacked by offensive coordinators, seeing as only the Saints have more rushing attempts against. I never feel great starting Tate because he does little in the pass game and will really hurt your fantasy week if the opponent keeps the game close, leading to a small dose of rushing stats for Houston's No. 2 back. I do understand the logic behind wanting to start Tate; I just wouldn't do it myself. ... Andre Johnson is 15th in wideout points through three weeks, displaying explosion off the line of scrimmage, physical dominance in traffic, and vertical separation skills. His legs look as fresh as ever. Although Titans RCB Alterraun Verner is flashing shutdown-caliber cover ability, Johnson has been waltzing around the formation enough that he'll deal with LCB Jason McCourty and slot CB Ryan Mouton, as well. Johnson is a top-five WR1.
Matt Schaub lit up Denver for four passing scores and 290 yards in Week 3, although his Weeks 1-2 stats are more indicative of what's to come. Schaub is talented enough individually and has a skilled enough supporting cast to produce big weeks on occasion. He's just not capable of hitting consistent QB1 numbers in the NFL's run-heaviest offense. Schaub is a respectable, if low-upside QB2. You are never going to want to start him, not even in favorable on-paper matchups like this. ... Schaub's target distribution through three games: Owen Daniels 22, Johnson 18, Kevin Walter 12, Foster 11, James Casey 9, Tate and Keshawn Martin 7. ... Daniels has been consistently involved in the passing offense during each of Houston's first three games. He might be the most underrated TE2 in fantasy football right now. Ranked 13th in tight end scoring, Daniels is going to be a strong fallback option during upcoming bye weeks. ... Walter is who he is, and you don't want him on your fantasy team. He's not suddenly morphing into a fantasy-relevant receiver at age 31.
I watched Titans-Lions this past week and came away thinking Chris Johnson tried harder against Detroit. I'm just looking for signs of improved effort at this point, and I saw him break a few tackles. He beat the defense to the corner a couple of times. The performance wasn't as bad as the box score claims. There's still no way in heck I'd start him against the Texans' top-five run defense, but maybe baby steps will lead to something. Doubt it, though. ... Jake Locker played really well in Tennessee's opener, really poorly in Week 2, and then exploded in Week 3, showing the big-time arm talent and athleticism that make him so enticing as a fantasy football prospect. Locker truly has an elite set of skills, but I couldn't bring myself to start him against Houston's defense even if top CB Johnathan Joseph (groin) misses the game. I want to see him show some consistency. Locker has been a Jekyll & Hyde quarterback, and Texans LE J.J. Watt is going to eat Titans RG Leroy Harris for lunch. If Locker plays under control and not in a frenzy with bodies around him, he'll be worth a long look as a streaming QB1 option next week against Minnesota.
Friday Update: Joseph returned to a full practice on Friday and is listed as probable on the injury report. Houston's defense will face Locker & Co. at full strength, armed with its shutdown cornerback.
After missing the first three games with an elbow infection, Javon Ringer returned to full practices this week and is on track to make his 2012 debut at Reliant Stadium. Ringer can pick up the blitz and may steal significant passing-down snaps from CJ401K. Just beware of tabbing Ringer as a "fantasy sleeper." Ringer is a weak running talent averaging 4.0 career YPC. Even if Johnson gets benched and Ringer is promoted, he's not going to help you much behind Tennessee's porous O-Line. He would be more effective than Johnson, however. ... As of Friday, Kenny Britt's twisted ankle had not healed to the point that he looked any better than 50:50 to play against the Texans. The Titans tried desperately to get Britt the football for big plays in Week 3, twice on receiver screens and again on an underthrow in the right front corner of the end zone on what should've been a high fade for a jump ball from Locker. Britt is playing in the slot and at split end, operating all across the formation. If Kenny Britt plays on Sunday, I would start him. If he doesn't, I'd start Nate Washington over Kendall Wright. ... Jared Cook's shoulder injury won't prevent him from playing at Houston, though his inconsistency should probably prevent you from starting him.
Score Prediction: Texans 24, Titans 17
4:05PM ET Games
Cincinnati @ Jacksonville
We'll learn a lot more about Andy Dalton in Week 4 at Jacksonville than the past two games have showed. Dalton faced the league's worst two pass defenses east of Oakland in the Haden-less Browns and Orakpo-less Redskins. The Jags are a far more formidable group with top CB Derek Cox back to full strength and a Cover-2 design that eliminates the long ball. Mel Tucker's defense has allowed just two passing TDs through three games, and played the first two without underrated Cox. Dalton remains a two-quarterback league option only. ... Tied for fourth in the NFL in targets and coming off a foreseeable blowup game against Washington's pathetic pass defense, A.J. Green should avoid RCB Cox's coverage for the majority of Sunday's snaps, instead squaring off with LCB Rashean Mathis. Mathis turned 32 in August and tore his ACL last November. He's primed for Green to pick apart. ... Jermaine Gresham caught a red-zone touchdown from Dalton in Week 3 and may do so a few more times over the course of the season. Gresham just offers nothing as a vertical tight end threat and often stays on the line to block. He's a back-end TE2.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a volume-dependent runner averaging 3.64 yards per carry. Including playoff games with the Patriots, Green-Ellis has amazingly gone 328 rushing attempts without a run of 20 yards. But volume-dependent runners can be fantasy assets if they're getting volume, and so far that has been the case for Green-Ellis. The Bengals are giving him the rock 20 times a week and he's executed twice at the goal line. Green-Ellis is the No. 14 fantasy running back through three games. While Law Firm stands no chance of giving you a weekly fantasy advantage, he's worth plugging and playing as an RB2/flex against Jacksonville's 30th-ranked run defense. Cincinnati should control time of possession in this game, allowing Green-Ellis to keep racking up attempts. ... Bengals OC Jay Gruden must find creative ways to increase situational receiver Andrew Hawkins' playing time, because he is a lightning-quick tackle breaker in the slot. His 48.8-percent snap rate is going to catch up to his fantasy production sooner rather than later. I'd still have a hard time starting Hawkins. ... Dalton's target distribution through three games: Green 33, Gresham 20, Hawkins 16, Armon Binns 13, Green-Ellis 6, Brandon Tate 5. ... The Binns-Tate split end committee will rotate into Cox's coverage in Week 4. Be sure to avoid.
Jacksonville's passing game has been so putrid the past two weeks that turning the offense over to Maurice Jones-Drew is first-year coach Mike Mularkey's only realistic option. Blaine Gabbert has 208 passing yards on 40 attempts (5.20 YPA) since the opener, stats that fall to 128 yards on 39 throws (3.28 YPA) if you exclude Cecil Shorts' 80-yard touchdown on a slant down the seam last week. Mularkey was aware of this entering the Week 3 Colts game, giving Jones-Drew 30 touches, which MJD took for 193 total yards and a score. He needs to be ready for massive workloads going forward, and a Week 4 date with Cincinnati is a plus matchup for Jacksonville's every-down back. With MLB Rey Maualuga consistently overrunning plays and WLB Thomas Howard out for the season, the Bengals rank 31st against the run while serving up a league-high 5.81 yards per carry. Jones-Drew ranks fifth among running backs in fantasy points. He should pad his stats on Sunday. Pat yourself on the back if you overlooked Jones-Drew's training-camp holdout and drafted him anyway. He's going to pay major dividends as long as he stays healthy.
Although the Jags pulled out the win, Mularkey showed no confidence in his quarterback at Indy. Pro Football Focus charted Gabbert with one attempt beyond 20 yards among 21 throws. The training wheels are back on, and that's bad news for Jacksonville pass catchers. So too is Gabbert's 42.5 completion rate over his last two games. ... First-round pick Justin Blackmon has four catches for 31 yards on 15 targets. He's not getting open, and the Jags aren't doing an effective enough job of getting him the ball in easy-catch situations. Blackmon is barely a WR5. ... Laurent Robinson missed most of Week 3 with a concussion. He'll apparently be back this week, but is the deep threat in a pass game that doesn't challenge deep. No thanks. ... Shorts has been really inconsistent and will continue to be because he doesn't play in the two-wide offense and has yet to exceed 20 snaps in a single game. It's imperative for fantasy owners to avoid "chasing points" from previous weeks and instead have eyes focused on the future. Shorts' box-score future is sure to be rocky. ... Marcedes Lewis has been a dominant run blocker this season, which is great. He has one catch for eight yards in the last two games. He's droppable.
Score Prediction: Bengals 17, Jaguars 13
Oakland @ Denver
Under first-year defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio, the Broncos so far have refused to match up Champ Bailey with opposing top receivers. Bailey has instead stuck to left cornerback on the vast majority of downs, with knee-hobbled Tracy Porter locked in on the right side. Porter was toasted for a 60-yard touchdown bomb by Texans split end Andre Johnson on the second possession of last week's loss, and projects to play most of this Sunday's snaps against Raiders split end Denarius Moore. With Darrius Heyward-Bey (concussion) sidelined indefinitely, Moore will be Oakland's go-to receiver in the passing game for the foreseeable future. Having recorded eight catches for 112 yards and a touchdown on a team-high 18 targets in his last two games, Moore is just now starting to find his groove. He's worth a long look as a WR3 at Denver. ... Unless Del Rio changes his early-season approach, Bailey will go to waste covering the winner of this week's in-practice competition for flanker snaps between Derek Hagan and Rod Streater. Neither is a fantasy option.
Friday Update: Streater "tweaked" his neck in Friday's practice and is listed as questionable on the injury report. Hagan is expected to start against Bailey and the Broncos, although Moore is the lone Raiders wideout worth Week 4 fantasy consideration.
The Broncos defended the run well in Weeks 1-2 against Pittsburgh's committee of mediocrity, followed by washed-up Michael Turner. Denver showed its truer colors in last week's loss to the Texans, serving up 152 yards on 34 carries (4.47 YPC). And the Broncos took a run-defense hit this week, losing early-down thumper MLB Joe Mays to one-game suspension following last week's illegal hit on Matt Schaub. Mays will be replaced by Keith Brooking, 37, whom Pro Football Focus graded 41st among 51 qualifying inside linebackers in run defense last season. Darren McFadden is coming off his best game of the year, and I'd look for him to one-up his Week 3 stat line in Week 4. ... Carson Palmer can't buy a break in his receiver corps. Either Heyward-Bey or Moore always seems to be hobbled or inactive. This week, he'll be without DHB. Palmer still throws the ball well enough to support viable fantasy production from a wideout, but he's unlikely to maintain any kind of individual consistency. Expect SLB/LE Von Miller to have a big day teeing off on Palmer. Miller will be squaring off with second-year UDFA right tackle Willie Smith, who struggles mightily in pass protection. ... Raiders TE Brandon Myers has been the NFL's most efficient early-season pass catcher, securing each of his 15 targets. I wouldn't take him seriously as a fantasy option.
Chris Wesseling promoted Peyton Manning as an elite QB1 play in Week 4, and the matchup is definitely working in his favor. Though Manning is off to an up-and-down start, the Raiders' pass defense is an embarrassment to the term pass defense. Still missing both starting corners, Oakland silver plattered 384 yards and four touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger last time out, a week after allowing Ryan Tannehill and the worst wide receiver group in the game to generate ball movement all day long. I said I'd play Christian Ponder over Peyton Manning in Week 4 and I will stand by that, but it would certainly be understandable if you leaned toward the proven veteran on a start-sit call. ... Demaryius Thomas is a top-12 fantasy wideout through three weeks, and I'd bet he'll leap into the top ten after this game. Dominant after the catch and capable of removing the top from a defense, Thomas can graduate to elite NFL receiver status this season if he cuts down on the drops. He's got four through three games. Still, lock him into your fantasy lineup. ... Eric Decker has three drops of his own, according to Pro Football Focus, but is coming off a breakthrough Week 3 game that saw him record eight catches for 136 yards. Decker and Thomas are going to be open all day against the Raiders. Thomas is a borderline WR1, and Decker is a recommended WR2.
Manning's target distribution so far: Thomas 29, Decker 26, Jacob Tamme 19, Brandon Stokley 15, Joel Dreessen 9, Willis McGahee and Lance Ball 5. ... A colossal fantasy disappointment, Tamme has been just a 61-percent player and ranks 19th in tight end scoring. He has 44 yards without a touchdown in his last two games. Tamme is a low-end TE2. ... Dreessen is not on the fantasy radar. ... Stokley will probably be open in his matchup with Raiders safety-turned-slot-corner Michael Huff, but is a rotational slot receiver and not a fantasy option. ... Though not to the extent of the pass defense, the Raiders' run defense presents a favorable matchup for McGahee. Oakland ranks 20th against the run despite two of its three games having come against pre-Ryan Mathews San Diego and Pittsburgh's running back corps. McGahee resumed practicing fully on Thursday after last week's rib scare and is on track to start Sunday's game. ... Rookie Ronnie Hillman was finally active in Week 3 and gained eight yards on three touches. He’s an RB5 at best.
Score Prediction: Broncos 28, Raiders 17
Miami @ Arizona
Fins-Cards projects as a low-scoring defensive battle. The over-under is 39 points, and it's a game to avoid where possible from a fantasy perspective. The biggest storyline on either side is the ascension of Ryan Williams from sputtering committee back to likely workhorse following the placement on injured reserve "designated for return" of backfield partner Beanie Wells. Williams enjoyed a career-best game in Week 3 against Philadelphia, receiving 14 touches and gaining at least four yards on eight, including fourth-quarter runs of 25, 7, 11, and 20. On Williams' 25-yard carry in particular, he exhibited impressive acceleration and made a quick upfield cut to bust by a flailing Eagles safety. While the Week 4 matchup is decidedly unfavorable -- Miami's No. 3 run defense is allowing the second-lowest YPC average in football (2.46) -- Williams' workload could be as voluminous as any back in the league. The Cardinals are capable of controlling the clock with elite defense against the Dolphins' putrid offense, and the Arizona coaching staff has shown an incredible amount of trust in Williams after an alarmingly slow start to his season. He's just a flex option, but I'd lean toward starting Williams because he projects to get the football so much.
Miami's defensive weakness is in the secondary. The Dolphins' pass rush has been inconsistent at best through three games, and Santonio Holmes ran circles around RCB Richard Marshall last week to snap a 27-game slump of sub-100 yards. Holmes finished with 147 on nine grabs. Larry Fitzgerald will take Holmes' place for the opposition in Week 4. ... While Kevin Kolb has done well to keep Arizona on a winning track, he's been a game manager and has yet to exceed 27 pass attempts on the year. Kolb remains a low-end QB2, even in the finest of matchups. ... Cardinals slot receiver Early Doucet's playing time is in decline and he has only eight targets through three weeks. Drop him. ... Conversely, first-round pick Michael Floyd played a season-high 36 snaps in Week 3 and caught an eight-yard touchdown pass. It's Floyd's only catch on the year, but he's trending in the right direction and should be owned in 14- and 16-team leagues. ... The Cardinals' three-wideout set of the future should pan out as Floyd at flanker, Fitz at split end, and Andre Roberts in the slot. ... Although La'Rod Stephens-Howling has more early-season touches, look for preseason star William Powell to be second in line for carries in Arizona's backfield behind Williams. Stephens-Howling, or "Hyphen," is just a change-of-pace back and return specialist, and won't play in Week 4 due to a hip injury.
Miami's offense is a fantasy wasteland aside from Reggie Bush. The coaches can't find ways to get explosive rookie Lamar Miller on the field consistently due to playbook-knowledge and blitz-pickup shortcomings, and Daniel Thomas might be the worst running back in the league who plays extensively in his offense. Fumbling Dan has already lost two fumbles among his first 22 carries. Bush looks like he'll play through last week's knee injury and has earned a start in difficult matchups by ranking fourth among fantasy backs on the young year, but he's the only Dolphins skill-position player worth a Week 4 look in standard leagues. ... Davone Bess is the best bet to lead Miami in receptions against Arizona's swarming defense. Brian Hartline will have to deal with borderline shutdown CB Patrick Peterson on the outside, while Bess matches up with burnable slot corner William Gay inside the numbers. Bess is a WR3 consideration only in PPR leagues.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 20, Dolphins 10
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4:25PM ET Games
Washington @ Tampa Bay
Ninth in the NFL in rushing and fourth in carries, Alfred Morris is locked in as Shanahan & Son's feature back for the foreseeable future. Third-down back Roy Helu is out for the year with turf toe, while Evan Royster strained his patellar tendon in Week 3. The injuries may give Morris' Week 4 fantasy outlook a shot in the arm if he sees more work in passing situations. Morris does not have a catch through three games. That will likely change at Tampa. Overlook the Bucs’ unsustainable No. 1 run-defense ranking and get Morris in your lineup. ... Save their Week 2 passing-game destruction by Eli Manning, the Bucs have played better defense under Greg Schiano than anyone could have guessed. RE Adrian Clayborn's year-ending knee injury may be a hit from which the unit doesn't recover. Clayborn was an every-down player and the Bucs' lone true edge presence, ranking top-12 in Pro Football Focus' 2011 4-3 defensive end pass-rusher ratings. He’ll be replaced by former Eagles third-round bust Daniel Te’o-Nesheim. Reduced outside rush will make red-hot DT Gerald McCoy easier to double team and leave an already hit-or-miss secondary more vulnerable to exposure. Robert Griffin III is the No. 1 fantasy quarterback on the season and an every-week starter.
Signed off the street this week, Ryan Grant looks like a mere insurance policy in D.C. Although the Shanahans have done crazier things in backfields past, Grant doesn't appear to be a serious threat for more than 4-6 Week 4 touches. The Skins tried to re-sign Tim Hightower first. Grant was a fallback option when Hightower's health didn't pass the sniff test. ... Leonard Hankerson generated a lot of late-week fantasy hype leading into Washington's 38-31 loss to Cincy. I like Hankerson for a post-hype rebound game. Pierre Garcon (foot) is likely to miss another week, and Hankerson drew coaching staff praise for his blocking against the Bengals while securing 4-of-7 targets for 56 yards. I think the Shannies will try to get HankTime the ball in burnable RCB Eric Wright's coverage. Aqib Talib mans the opposite side of the field, and may go to waste matching up with Josh Morgan. ... Slot receiver Santana Moss has 64 yards combined in three games, and his box-score production has slipped each week. Move on. ... Fred Davis got back on track in Week 3 by securing each of his seven targets for 90 yards. Perhaps this is a sign Davis will be Washington's go-to guy until Garcon returns, or perhaps not. I'd still back off relying on Davis as a Week 4 starter. We should have a better read on Davis following this week.
The Redskins' pass defense got shredded by Sam Bradford in Week 2 and Andy Dalton in Week 3. Bradford and Dalton combined to complete 45-of-62 passes (72.6 percent) for 638 yards (10.3 YPA), and a 6:2 TD-to-INT ratio. While Josh Freeman has been too inconsistent for serious QB1 consideration, Washington's inability to even be competitive against the pass bodes extremely well for Vincent Jackson's Week 4 fantasy prospects. Washington is on pace to allow 85 pass plays of 20-plus yards -- up 27 from last year -- and V-Jax is the Buccaneers' go-to guy in the intermediate and deep sections. Starting "No. 1" receivers against the Redskins is a no-brainer move going forward. Lock in Jackson as a borderline WR1. ... Without pass pressure to mask their horrendous secondary, the Skins' back end is so vulnerable that even Bucs No. 2 receiver Mike Williams is worth a look as a WR3. Williams is coming off a two-catch, 33-yard game. He has just 14 targets on the season. But Williams is a virtual lock to be open regularly on Sunday.
Doug Martin ranks 20th in fantasy running back scoring, but is tied with LeSean McCoy for fourth in touches. I think the former stat will begin catching up to the latter, and Martin's ascension will begin this week. He just needs some touchdowns. Tampa should have no trouble generating ball movement against Washington's sieve-ish pass defense, setting up scoring chances for the feature back. With a 45-percent touch rate, no player in the league has been a bigger part of his offense than Martin. The monstrous workloads raise Martin's weekly floor, and he continues to offer plenty of upside. I'm not buying for a second talk that LeGarrette Blount might be "more involved." Blount is not the answer. ... Freeman's target distribution on the season: V-Jax 27, Williams 14, Martin 10, Dallas Clark 10, Erik Lorig 5, Arrelious Benn 1. ... Fantasy non-factor Clark is averaging 22 yards per game. ... Benn's role was supposed to increase after Preston Parker's release, but he was targeted once at Dallas. (He caught it for eight yards.) Patience is running thin on the former second-round pick.
Score Prediction: Redskins 24, Bucs 20
New Orleans @ Green Bay
This won't shock you: At 53, Saints-Packers has the highest over-under of Week 4. Expect lots of points, yards, and slump-busting at Lambeau. ... Although Jay Glazer has reported that Marques Colston's plantar fasciitis cleared up, the Saints' actions suggest lingering worry. Colston played just 34-of-61 snaps (55.7 percent) in Week 3. He hasn't seen that low a snap rate since Week 4 of 2011; the first game back from a broken collarbone. Colston needs to be in fantasy lineups in this projected shootout, but I'll keep an eye on his field time going forward. Colston again came up just short of a red-zone score last week, only to see it go to Lance Moore a play later. Bad luck has cost Colston a ton of early-season fantasy points. ... I won't waste words on Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, or Darren Sproles. They're guys you start every week and set the rest of your lineup around. ... Tramon Williams has been a legit shutdown corner for Green Bay's defense, suffocating Brandon Marshall (2-24) and Sidney Rice (1-22) the past two games. Colston is a slot receiver and Williams plays outside, so New Orleans' top wideout should not have to worry about the Packers' best cornerback for most of Sunday's game. Moore and Devery Henderson should be concerned. I'd expect Henderson, in particular, to line up against Williams early and often.
Brees' target distribution so far: Graham 31, Sproles 25, Moore 22, Colston 19, Pierre Thomas 13, Henderson 9, Joseph Morgan 5, Mark Ingram 1. ... With Colston struggling a bit, Moore has been the guy to step up in terms of playing time, targets, and production. Moore has two strong fantasy games out of three, and he's worth a long look as a WR3/flex in this shootout. ... After watching Chiefs-Saints on Tuesday and pondering the situation, I think it's time to consider dropping Ingram in 10-team leagues. I didn't think Ingram is running as poorly as some have suggested, but his mere presence on the field is a "tell" to the defense that a run is coming. Ingram rarely plays in passing situations, and among the four instances he did against K.C., he blew two blitz pickups, nearly getting Brees sacked. Ingram has played 43 snaps this year. He's carried the ball on 27 of them (63 percent). For comparison, Thomas has played 76 snaps and rushed on 19 (25 percent). Sproles has 111 snaps and seven runs (6.3 percent). When Ingram enters the game, the offense becomes easier to defend, including Ingram himself. He's averaging 2.93 yards per carry. ... I've also noticed Thomas cutting significantly into Ingram's red-zone work. Thomas has yet to score a touchdown on the season, but he's another worthwhile flex option on the Saints' side in this game.
Want to know the surefire antidote for a scuffling passing offense? A pass rush-devoid defense. Which brings us to the Saints. While New Orleans' similarly pathetic run defense has drawn more recognition as an immediate fallout of Jamaal Charles' mammoth Week 3, the Saints' inability to affect quarterbacks is their biggest defensive problem. This game will get 23rd-ranked fantasy passer Aaron Rodgers off the schneid. ... Even though he's been throttled by pass games, the Saints continue to stubbornly trot out rookie Corey White as their slot corner. Fantasy owners can capitalize on Steve Spagnuolo's refusal to adjust by starting Greg Jennings on Sunday. Jennings still plays outside on occasion, but he's primarily a slot weapon nowadays. Start him. ... Rodgers' target distribution through three weeks: Jermichael Finley 21, Jennings and Jordy Nelson 19, James Jones 17, Randall Cobb 13, Cedric Benson 9, John Kuhn 7. ... Keep in mind Jennings missed a full game. He's still Rodgers' No. 1 passing option. ... Finley is an obvious mental case, but he's getting enough balls to be considered an elite TE1 option in a matchup like this. We're still waiting for Finley's production to catch up to his raw ability. He is a classic underachiever.
Nelson has had a slow enough start to the season that I've seen many people consider benching him against the Saints. I think you'll be kicking yourself if you do. Not only is Green Bay in store for its first offensive bonanza, but Nelson has a terrific matchup against a Saints defense that ranks 25th against the pass and is surrendering over nine yards per pass attempt. With poor safety play, New Orleans is also highly susceptible to the intermediate-to-deep strike, which is Nelson's bread and butter. Start him if you have him and try to trade for him before Sunday if you don't. Jordy will be unavailable by Monday. ... Cobb and Jones are really nice talents, but hard to trust even in a game like this because their track records are so spotty. They both offer upside because of the high-scoring setup, but are just dice-roll flex plays. ... New Orleans' defense will bust your team's run game slump. They did it for the Panthers in Week 2 and Chiefs in Week 3 after generously welcoming Redskins rookies Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris to the NFL in the season opener. This is a legitimately bad defense. Benson won't experience a more favorable matchup all year.
Score Prediction: Packers 33, Saints 27
Sunday Night Football
NY Giants @ Philadelphia
LeSean McCoy's 16 touches against Arizona were a personal low when healthy since Week 12 last season. Coach Andy Reid acknowledged afterwards that he was mistaken to limit his top skill-position player's involvement. Following the aforementioned Week 12 game, Reid gave McCoy 21 touches, which he took for 133 total yards and two touchdowns. I'd be willing to bet that McCoy's usage won't be a Week 4 issue, and his historical stats against the Giants suggest McCoy is set up for a bounce-back game. In six career meetings with the G-Men, McCoy has rushed 92 times for 526 yards (5.72 YPC) and three TDs. He's chipped in an average of four receptions per game. With Michael Vick leading the NFL in turnovers, it'd make sense for Reid to hitch his wagon to McCoy. At least until Vick gets his act together. ... Brent Celek's 8/157 Week 2 game turned fantasy heads, before he snapped back to reality with 36 yards on two grabs against the Cards. Celek is an in-line tight end who doesn't play in the slot, so he can get stuck on the line when Philadelphia needs "help" blocks for a struggling offensive tackle. The Giants have been tough on tight ends early this season, failing to surrender a touchdown to the position through three games.
While he could fast change minds with an efficient, productive effort on a big stage like this, it's time to be concerned about Vick's fantasy prospects. Playing as out of control as ever and having already absorbed 27 QB hits -- many of which are on him -- Vick failed to receive a ringing job-security endorsement from Reid on Monday. Reid later stated on his radio show that Vick remains the Eagles' starter, "period," but fantasy owners must waste no time in securing the strongest QB2 they possibly can. Nick Foles is in the on-deck circle in Philly. ... The return of Jeremy Maclin will be a huge help to Vick and fantasy owners alike, though. As noted by Wesseling, Philadelphia is 7-0 when Maclin plays and 0-3 when he doesn't over its past ten games. Those numbers aren't fluky. Maclin is the Eagles' most complete wide receiver, and the offense doesn't run nearly as smoothly without him. Start Maclin, and his return should increase the confidence level fantasy owners have in Vick, too. ... DeSean Jackson is already beginning to shape up as an inconsistent fantasy player, which should surprise no one. That's pretty much the way it's always been. Jackson is a high-upside fantasy play against a weak Giants secondary, but could just as easily lay an egg. He’ll likely always be boom or bust.
Though more of a workmanlike back lacking make-you-miss ability, Andre Brown brings a power element to New York's offense that Ahmad Bradshaw can't. Brown also holds his own as a pass protector and receiver, and doesn't need to leave the field on critical downs. In other words, the Giants can ride Brown if he shows a "hot hand" early in games. Despite being re-announced as the starter, Bradshaw's fantasy value is in the gutter. While Brown may not suddenly become the feature back, he's earned a timeshare with a 5.58 YPC average, balanced running in traffic, and ball security. Brown has zero career fumbles; putting the ball on the ground has been an issue for both Bradshaw and rookie David Wilson. Wilson remains an RB5 stash. Bradshaw is an RB3 with plummeting stock. Brown is a low-end flex against an Eagles defense that has allowed 234 yards and one touchdown on 68 carries (3.44 YPC) to opposing tailbacks. Dating back to 2011, Philly has surrendered just the one rushing score in its last seven games. ... Ramses Barden did well to capitalize on his Week 3 opportunity after Hakeem Nicks (foot) missed the team flight, exploiting pathetic Panthers pass coverage that routinely left him wide open. Barden's career stats before last Thursday: 16/198/0 in 19 games. His stats at Carolina: 9/138/0. The effort may have vaulted Barden ahead of Domenik Hixon for the third receiver job.
Friday Update: The Giants announced Friday that Nicks' status for Week 4 is doubtful after his knee swelled up following Thursday's practice. Either Barden or Hixon is going to start at split end against the Eagles, squaring off with Asomugha. We should know the starter by Sunday morning.
Eli Manning's last 17 regular season games: 401-of-645 (62.2 percent) for 5,453 yards (8.5 YPA), and a 32:17 TD-to-INT ratio. Pretty good. The Eagles' third-ranked pass defense presents a tough challenge, but Eli is still an acceptable back-end QB1. ... If Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, and Vernon Davis are fantasy's top three tight ends, Martellus Bennett is a close No. 4. Bennett leads the NFL in red-zone targets and is on pace for 80 catches and 987 yards. Get him in your lineup each week, regardless of matchup. ... Manning's target distribution so far: Victor Cruz 36, Bennett 23, Nicks 21, Barden 12, Brown 7, Hixon 6, Wilson and Rueben Randle 3, Bradshaw 2. ... Look for Nicks to face RCB Nnamdi Asomugha for most of this game down the left-hand side, while Cruz deals with LCB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Rodgers-Cromartie has quietly overtaken Asomugha as Philly's top cover corner. Cruz can still get viable production in the slot, where he'll square off with rookie Brandon Boykin on passing downs. Both Giants wideouts need to be in fantasy lineups. Nicks' foot should benefit from his 12-day layoff. He had a career-high 199 yards the last time he played.
Friday Update: Eli's Week 4 outlook takes a hit due to Nicks' expected absence. Downgrade Manning from back-end QB1 to QB2 in a difficult matchup for any passing game. While the Giants will probably choose between Barden and Hixon just before game time, Cruz and Bennett figure to be the two biggest beneficiaries in terms of targets and fantasy-viable production.
Score Prediction: Eagles 23, Giants 21
Monday Night Football
Chicago @ Dallas
Tony Romo's box-score production has been torpedoed by shaky line play the past two games, particularly on the interior. He won't be getting a break from the Bears, who lead the NFL in sacks and play tight coverage in the back end. Lovie Smith's opportunistic Cover 2 is off to a borderline shutdown start, having allowed just three touchdown passes while intercepting six throws through three games. Until Romo and his protection pick it up, I'm viewing him as a back-end fantasy starter, and I'm weighing other options in Week 4. ... Miles Austin has quietly locked himself in as an every-week WR1. He's sixth among fantasy wideouts in points so far, and has the best matchup of Dallas' receivers on Monday night, facing off with feisty but gambling Bears slot CB D.J. Moore. ... Chicago has played stout run defense as well early in the year, surrendering under four yards per carry to opposing ground attacks and just one touchdown through three games. DeMarco Murray's workhorse role should still lock him into lineups as an RB2 at the very least.
While much of fantasy land is down on Dez Bryant after a slow start -- Dez ranks a lowly 60th in receiver points -- I'm not quite as concerned. Bryant topped 80 yards in Week 1 against a Giants defense clearly trying to take him away, was shut down with the rest of Dallas' offense in Week 2, and topped 60 yards while nearly scoring on a 44-yard punt return last Sunday against the Bucs. Bryant doesn't have a particularly friendly Monday night matchup against Bears CB Charles Tillman, so he may be cheaper than ever to "buy low" after this week. ... Kevin Ogletree plays Z receiver in three-wide sets and will line up across from red-hot CB Tim Jennings on the majority of Monday's snaps. Per Pro Football Focus, Jennings has permitted just nine of the 27 passes thrown in his direction this season (33.3 percent) to be completed for 95 yards (3.52 YPA) and no touchdowns. Jennings also has a league-high four interceptions, so it's reasonable to think Jason Garrett might scheme to throw to the receiver playing opposite him. That projects to be Bryant. Predictably slumping after his fluky opener, Ogletree is not a fantasy option in this game. ... Jason Witten has been a drop machine early in the year and seen few targets down the seam. He could get stuck on the line helping block Julius Peppers on Monday night and is a poor TE1 bet.
Dallas missed both safeties in Week 3 as SS Barry Church tore his Achilles' and FS Gerald Sensabaugh was inactive with a right calf strain. Against the Bucs, DC Rob Ryan designed a masterful plan to eliminate Vincent Jackson, jamming him at the line with RCB Mike Jenkins and slot CB Orlando Scandrick while usual LCB Brandon Carr operated as a safety "over the top." Jackson came away with one catch for 29 yards on seven targets. I wouldn't tell you to bench Brandon Marshall because he's an every-week starter, but it's fair to wonder if Ryan will take a similar approach against the Bears' top wideout. Ryan is using Morris Claiborne and especially Carr as "movable chess pieces" to shut down passing games. The Cowboys rank first in the NFL in team defense and second against the pass. ... Here's guessing Jay Cutler wouldn't have so many perceived in-game meltdowns if his offensive line could pass protect. It's going to be tough sledding yet again on the road against DeMarcus Ware & Co. The Cowboys' pass defense is so effective that it will begin to account for increased "coverage" sacks as well. Cutler is just a QB2.
While there are numerous big-name skill players on both sides, I expect a relatively low-scoring Monday night affair because each club's defensive strength is capable of exploiting its opponent's most glaring offensive weaknesses. Aside from Marshall, no Bears pass catcher has stepped up enough to warrant a Week 4 fantasy start. Rookie Alshon Jeffery seems to be getting closer, but he's not there yet, and this isn't the matchup to gamble that he is. ... Due to the "late" start, lack of clarity in terms of both touch distribution and health, and an imposing matchup with the league's No. 1 defense, I might hold off on starting both Matt Forte (ankle) and Michael Bush (shoulder) in Week 4. Bush is healthiest of the two, but this remains Forte's job if he's capable of playing. Will they form an even committee on Monday night? Will Forte be a surprise, last-minute scratch? I'd rather invest in Sunday's games for my Week 4 running back plays. If I sit Forte at Dallas and he plays well, I can consider it a plus. I will know for sure to start him in Week 5 at Jacksonville.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 20, Bears 17
