NFL Fantasy News 2012

[HacheMan]

Surprises/disappointments: RPs

By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

So how'd that Alfredo Aceves deal work out for you? Did you really think this was the season Huston Street would stay healthy? Maybe you "played it safe" and drafted Mr. Reliable, Mariano Rivera.

Ah, closers, the bane of fantasy baseball's existence. Hero one day, goat the next. Yet there might be more fantasy analysis bandwidth dedicated to saves than every other stat combined.


By now, you know this common recommendation: Wait on closers. Heck, some are even proponents of punting saves altogether. Truth be told, all advice, not just that concerning closers, is completely contextual. There is no one-size-fits-all stratagem, regardless of the topic. It all depends on your league format, number of teams and scoring system, not to mention the league dynamics and your personal strengths and weaknesses as an evaluator. It's just that saves are such a specialized position that they garner more attention.


Today, saves are going under the microscope in an effort to get a leg up on the competition for next season, laying the groundwork for you to formulate the most efficient means of attacking the category next spring. I'll start by taking a peak at saves in the League of Alternative Baseball Reality and Tout Wars, look at reliever skills and unveil some data that some owners might not even realize exists, data that could go against what is conventionally accepted in the sabermetric community. Those revelations will be applied to upper-tier closers to demonstrate how the top guys do more than just get saves. Finally, I'll dissect a few surprisingly effective closers and talk about their chances of success in 2013, along with analyzing some disappointing relievers to determine whether 2013 could be a bounce-back campaign.



<offer></offer>How do league leaders fare in saves?





As a means to demonstrate just how varied the approaches can be, here is a glance at where the competing teams are situated in saves in the industry's two showcase leagues: LABR and Tout Wars. Where the team stands in the league is in the column heading with the placement in saves listed in each column.



<table><thead><tr><th> League </th><th> 1st place </th><th> 2nd place </th><th> 3rd place </th><th> 4th place </th><th> 5th place </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> LABR: 12-team American League </td><td> 9th </td><td> 3rd </td><td> 5th </td><td> 7th </td><td> 12th </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> LABR: 13-team National League </td><td> 7th </td><td> 4th </td><td>5th (tie)</td><td>5th (tie)</td><td> 2nd </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> LABR: 15-team Mixed </td><td> 8th </td><td> 7th </td><td>5th (tie)</td><td> 2nd </td><td> 13th </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Tout Wars: 12-team AL</td><td> 2nd </td><td> 11th </td><td> 8th </td><td> 10th </td><td> 3rd </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Tout Wars: 13-team NL</td><td> 1st </td><td> 3rd </td><td> 12th </td><td> 2nd </td><td> 4th </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Tout Wars: 15-team Mixed </td><td> 1st </td><td> 9th </td><td> 15th </td><td> 9th </td><td> 4th </td></tr></tbody></table>




It is interesting to note that the league leaders fare higher in the category in Tout Wars. This is likely due to Tout Wars scheduling their auctions about a week before the season, while LABR auctions about a month before Opening Day. This speaks toward the specific league dynamics, as more is known about the identity of the team's closers during the Tout Wars proceedings.


That said, the real tangible point is that there is no singular strategy that works or does not work. As is usually the case, any strategy can work if you select the right players, though the better fantasy gamer usually chooses the strategy with the best odds of being successful.



Skills: Starting pitchers versus relievers





Below is a table displaying the standard pitching skills. Expected Earned Run Average (xERA) is determined using the Gill and Reeve formula ((0.575 * H/9) + (0.94 * HR/9) + (0.28 * BB/9) - (0.01 * K/9) - Normalizing Factor). The data is current through Sept. 15.



<table><thead><tr><th> 2012 </th><th> BABIP </th><th> K/9 </th><th> BB/9 </th><th> HR/9 </th><th> H/9 </th><th> ERA </th><th> xERA </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Starter </td><td> .298 </td><td> 7.13 </td><td> 2.84 </td><td> 1.09 </td><td> 9.00 </td><td> 4.22 </td><td> 4.16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Reliever </td><td> .294 </td><td> 8.36 </td><td> 3.46 </td><td> 0.90 </td><td> 8.22 </td><td> 3.64 </td><td> 3.68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Save Situation </td><td> .280 </td><td> 9.10 </td><td> 3.26 </td><td> 0.79 </td><td> 7.41 </td><td> 3.18 </td><td> 3.05 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Get a Save </td><td> .218 </td><td> 9.68 </td><td> 2.16 </td><td> 0.24 </td><td> 4.86 </td><td> 0.85 </td><td> 0.75 </td></tr></tbody></table>





<table><thead><tr><th> 2011 </th><th> BABIP </th><th> K/9 </th><th> BB/9 </th><th> HR/9 </th><th> H/9 </th><th> ERA </th><th> xERA </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Starter </td><td> .296 </td><td> 6.75 </td><td> 2.85 </td><td> 0.98 </td><td> 8.99 </td><td> 4.06 </td><td> 4.06 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Reliever </td><td> .291 </td><td> 7.91 </td><td> 3.63 </td><td> 0.85 </td><td> 8.21 </td><td> 3.69 </td><td> 3.69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Save Situation </td><td> .288 </td><td> 8.65 </td><td> 3.34 </td><td> 0.81 </td><td> 7.78 </td><td> 3.43 </td><td> 3.31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Get a Save </td><td> .220 </td><td> 9.18 </td><td> 2.27 </td><td> 0.29 </td><td> 5.08 </td><td> 1.01 </td><td> 0.97 </td></tr></tbody></table>





<table><thead><tr><th> 2010 </th><th> BABIP </th><th> K/9 </th><th> BB/9 </th><th> HR/9 </th><th> H/9 </th><th> ERA </th><th> xERA </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Starter </td><td> .297 </td><td> 6.77 </td><td> 3.06 </td><td> 0.99 </td><td> 9.00 </td><td> 4.15 </td><td> 4.12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Reliever </td><td> .298 </td><td> 7.87 </td><td> 3.73 </td><td> 0.90 </td><td> 8.52 </td><td> 3.93 </td><td> 3.94 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Save Situation </td><td> .292 </td><td> 8.76 </td><td> 3.48 </td><td> 0.82 </td><td> 7.91 </td><td> 3.51 </td><td> 3.44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Get a Save </td><td> .229 </td><td> 10.45 </td><td> 2.64 </td><td> 0.35 </td><td> 5.73 </td><td> 1.08 </td><td> 1.49 </td></tr></tbody></table>




The first thing to note is that all three seasons follow the same trend, so to facilitate this discussion, I will focus on the present campaign. As the data becomes more specialized, the involved skills improve quite significantly. Intuitively, it makes sense that the superior skills will be present when a save is registered, yet it's also true that the best closers comprise this subset.


The real noteworthy aspect is how BABIP drops as the reliever becomes more skilled. This is the part that could rile the sabermetric community, as it has been drummed into our heads that a pitcher exerts limited control over whether a batted ball in play leads to an out or a hit. As the data shows, it's clear that the better relievers exhibit a larger measure of control over their hit rate as compared to the better starters, and this is not a random or sample-size anomaly. This will be relevant when deciding if a pitcher's performance is repeatable. I contend that a better-than-league-average BABIP should be expected from the elite closers, so when you see a reliever sporting what is perceived to be a normal BABIP, it's actually high compared to others at his position.


The xERA is included to show that the extremely low ERAs sported by the elite closers are a result of their elite skills and not some other element of fate. The take-home lesson is if the skills are repeatable, then the ERA is also repeatable and not subject to regression, as other analysts will suggest.


While this is more a topic for another day, it's worth noting that my contention isn't that the elite relievers are better pitchers than the upper-echelon starters, rather that it's completely situational. Their raw skills, when normalized per nine innings, are superior to that of the best starters. But the dynamics of working one inning versus six or more are completely different. The most important aspect of this data is that it's perfectly acceptable to expect a lower-than-league-average BABIP from elite relievers.



A pair with mad skills





This segues into looking at a couple of relievers who some feel deserve NL Cy Young consideration: Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel. Here are their numbers in 2012:



<table><thead><tr><th> Pitcher </th><th> BABIP </th><th> K/9 </th><th> BB/9 </th><th> HR/9 </th><th> H/9 </th><th> ERA </th><th> xERA </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Craig Kimbrel </td><td> .247 </td><td> 16.92 </td><td> 2.28 </td><td> 0.49 </td><td> 3.74 </td><td> 1.14 </td><td> 0.31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Aroldis Chapman </td><td> .261 </td><td> 15.83 </td><td> 2.66 </td><td> 0.53 </td><td> 4.52 </td><td>1.60</td><td> 0.92 </td></tr></tbody></table>




Folks, that's just off-the-charts sick. To fan that many batters with such exceptional walk rates is amazing. There's no doubt that, barring injury, Kimbrel will be the Opening Day closer for the Atlanta Braves next season, while there is still some question as to whether Chapman continues to anchor the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen or if they convert him back into being a starter.


To expect either to repeat these metrics is unfair, especially the walk rate, considering this is the first season that either pitcher has posted a mark that low. It's also good practice to count on some regression with respect to the other skills, so let's be conservative and assume they drop some in strikeouts with a few more hits falling in, leading to the following profile:



<table><thead><tr><th> Pitcher </th><th> K/9 </th><th> BB/9 </th><th> HR/9 </th><th> H/9 </th><th> xERA </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Kimbrel/Chapman </td><td> 14.00 </td><td> 3.50 </td><td> 0.60 </td><td> 5.00 </td><td> 1.51 </td></tr></tbody></table>




This incorporates some significant regression across the board, and it still should result in a sub-2.00 ERA. Granted, the only pitcher who has proved capable of maintaining this level of performance for an extended period of time is Mariano Rivera, but the metrics, especially the strikeout rates enjoyed by Kimbrel and Chapman, are historically excellent. Still, my guess is that next season's projected ERA for this duo will be a little closer to 2.00 than the above 1.51 mark.

To give an idea of just how helpful numbers of this magnitude are, if you replace a closer such as, say, Joel Hanrahan, Jonathan Papelbon or Chris Perez with Kimbrel or Chapman, depending on where you are in the standings, you can amass anywhere from three to six more rotisserie points in ERA, WHIP and K's.


Don't interpret this as a plea to draft a closer early. The purpose, rather, is to demonstrate just how valuable a closer of this nature can be and suggest that it's not crazy to anticipate Kimbrel, Chapman or even a healthy Kenley Jansen to approach this level next season. Choosing whether to invest is still contextual.



On three, everyone yell "Surprise!"





The primary reason many pundits implore fantasy owners to shun saves early in a draft or not to pay for them in an auction is the emergence of several surprise closers during the season. Here's a review of a few examples that have graced fantasy rosters this summer. That said, keep in mind that for every name on this list, there are many more failed closers, such as Rafael Dolis, Ryan Cook, Henry Rodriguez, Dale Thayer and Jim Henderson. While the success of the players below might lead you to believe you can easily pick up saves during the season, there's no guarantee you will choose wisely.

Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays: Yikes, where in the name of Kyle Farnsworth did this come from? How can a guy who walked 28 batters in 32 frames last season issue half that through 68 innings in 2012? Even throwing out last season, it's hard to believe Rodney would cut his career 4.5 BB/9 rate all the way to 1.9. Other than throwing a few more two-seamers, Rodney's pitch selection and velocity have been the same as before. He has just exhibited immaculate control.


Chances are, if you are in a keeper league, you have him dirt cheap and are therefore debating whether to freeze him for next season. The Rays have a $2.5 million club option on him for next season, so there's a good chance he'll be back in Tampa. While his 9.00 K/9 is nice, it's not exceptional, and I'm suspect about his chances of matching this season's low walk rate. My inclination would be to deal him to someone who believes his 2012 gains are sustainable.

Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles: The knock on Johnson entering the season was that his low strikeout rate would render him susceptible to the occasional blowup, and if a couple of these occur in close proximity, his job could be in jeopardy. Great control would help mitigate this from happening, but that didn't keep the Orioles from acquiring former Rockies fireballer Matt Lindstrom in February, whetting the appetite of those who believe strikeouts are the key to closing games. Forty-three saves later, Johnson is firmly entrenched in the role.

But here's the thing: Baltimore has played, and won, an inordinate number of close games in 2012. The Orioles are 18 games over .500 but have managed to score 20 fewer runs than they have allowed. Their record in one-run games is an extremely lucky 23-8, which is the impetus for Johnson's high saves total.


This is not to say Johnson has not pitched well; it's just that he has been afforded a lucky number of opportunities. Even though lesser teams still get saves, there is little doubt Johnson's total has been buoyed by this wave of Lady Luck that has engulfed the Orioles in 2012. Don't draft him for his 2012 saves total next spring unless you get a discount. Johnson is still a guy who relies on guile and control and is therefore a candidate to struggle.

Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels: Acquired by the Angels from the Padres in early May, Frieri didn't take long to attain a piece of the closer gig. While the Halos still play the matchups with their closers, the hard-throwing Frieri is the head of the committee. Since leaving San Diego, Frieri has ratcheted his strikeouts to near Kimbrel/Chapman levels, but his BB/9 rate is nearly double that of the dynamic duo. Frieri could pull a Rodney and drop the walks, but there's just as good a chance the whiffs fall back. The other problem with Frieri is he is a fly ball pitcher and is thus prone to the long ball. Even if he is awarded the job next spring, Frieri carries too much risk to invest top dollar on him, despite an attractive strikeout rate. He is the kind of guy I like to use to gauge the closer market rather than supplying my staff with saves.

Tyler Clippard, Washington Nationals: If you played in a league in which solid middle relievers are useful, Clippard's 2012 success is no surprise, at least in terms of effectiveness. The surprise could be the Nationals sacrificing his ability to throw multiple innings leading to the ninth. But with the injury to Drew Storen and the ineffectiveness of Henry Rodriguez, the surprising NL East leaders had no choice but to hand the reins to their skilled setup man, and he has not disappointed.


What keeps Clippard from being elite is his inconsistent control. Like Frieri, he is a fly ball pitcher, but he has not been burned by the long ball nearly as much. Clippard's track record is more impressive than any of the examples thus far. If I had him at a price of a solid setup man in a keeper league, I would seriously consider keeping him, figuring at worse I break even with an excellent chance of getting some saves, especially if Clippard excels in the playoffs. On the other hand, I would be wary of paying a full closer price for him in 2013. The track record for his skills is solid, but that does not always translate into success as a closer.

Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle Mariners: After bouts of injury woes and ineffectiveness, Brandon League ceded the Mariners' closing duties to Wilhelmsen. For a stretch, it was assumed the M's would give the gig back to League once he was healthy in order to build up his trade value, but the team did the right thing and kept the better option in the role. Wilhelmsen has the classic closer profile, fanning 9.8 batters per nine innings while walking a respectable 3.5 per nine.


There could be some owners who are slightly concerned that he is a bit older than many first-year closers (turning 29 in December), but this is not that unusual for a closer and should not detract you from having him firmly on your radar next spring. Wilhelmsen is likely going to get a bad team discount, but he has a good chance at getting 30 saves this season, providing another example that losing teams can still provide ample save opportunities.



What happened?





Those preaching to wait on saves have their fair share of exhibits to state their case, as there were, as always, a plethora of disappointments this season. Here's a look at a few:

Heath Bell, Miami Marlins: If I had a nickel for every time someone wrote, "The Marlins have 27 million reasons to keep Bell in the closer role" or something to that effect. ... Truth be told, I contributed a few dollars' worth myself, as I just did not believe Miami would make Bell a setup guy.


For a while, I and the others were spot on. After early struggles, Bell was stripped of his closer duties in late May, only to be given the job back almost immediately. At this point, his owners looked like geniuses, as Bell went on a tear, but by mid-July, the wildness had returned, and Steve Cishek wrested the job from Bell. It's worth noting, though, that since then, Bell has sported a respectable 3.33 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. More importantly, his 8.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 are promising. How or where is unclear, but if Bell is again given a chance to close, he could be worth a roll of the dice.

John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers: This year, Axford's entrance music could be Lou Reed's "Walk on the Wild Side." Axford has reversed a three-year trend of a declining walk rate in a big way; his BB/9 has ballooned to 5.34, up from a fine 3.05 mark last season. His approach is the same; he is just missing his spots. Axford was relieved of his closing responsibility earlier this season, only to get the job back after none of his replacements could get anyone out either. While it's true he has not blown a save since Aug. 10, converting 11 saves over a 14-inning stretch, he has walked an unsightly 11 batters in this span. In other words, Axford is still wild; he has just been lucky not to blow any saves. If a fellow owner looks at his recent success in terms of conversions and wants to pay full price for him next spring, let them. Axford does not have a sufficient track record to assume the walks will again drop to 2011 levels.

Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers: While few figured Valverde would repeat his perfect 49-for-49 saves effort in 2011, Valverde's 2012 campaign still is disappointing for those who paid top dollar or invested a high draft pick in him. Most notable is his drop in K/9 rate, which is down to a mark (6.4) well below league average. Valverde has shaved a few walks off his ledger, but the lower whiff rate has hurt the strikeout column and affected his ERA.


Valverde likely will finish somewhere in the neighborhood of 35 saves, which is what can reasonably be expected from any full-time closer. But his weak peripherals hurt the other categories. The real question is what 2013 will bring. Valverde will be 35 next Opening Day and has been a workhorse of a closer, throwing more pitches than most. I am taking the drop in K's as a bad sign and will avoid Papa Grande next season.

Jonny Venters, Braves: Venters makes the disappointing list as a setup man because the extent of his slide has been monumental. Venters' peripheral numbers were expected to be in the Kimbrel/Chapman territory, which means other than contributing in saves, he would boost a staff several roto points. He went for low-double digit dollars in many NL-only auctions before the season and was one of only a handful of nonclosing relievers taken in mixed leagues. He was at the head of the list of those owners who favor the all-reliever strategy. Long story short, that hasn't worked out.


Venters has been victimized by some exceptionally poor luck on batted balls, especially grounders, hiding the fact that his ground ball rate is higher than normal. In addition, 27.3 percent of the fly balls he has issued have cleared the fences. Think about that: One out of every four fly balls he has given up has left the park. That's just ridiculous. Venters does not allow many balls to be lofted, but that's often what leads to his success, including a paucity of home runs allowed.


But here's a good sign: Since July 4, Venters has not allowed any long balls. His strikeouts are down a bit, as he is sporting a pedestrian (for him) 20/11 K/BB split in 20 1/3 innings since Independence Day. But he also was dealing with an elbow injury - including a DL stint in July because of it - which likely influenced his performance.


If you were looking to add Venters this season, he should be on your radar again next season. The good thing is you're going to get him at a discount. The bad thing is that he is not likely to amass the innings totals he reached in 2010 and 2011, tempering the potential impact his ratios and strikeouts offer.

 

[HacheMan]

Turner Turmoil
A wise man once said that “when it rains, it pours.” Michael Turner is putting that notion to the test.

A few hours after Monday night’s win against the Broncos, Turner was pulled over in his Audi R8 while going 97 miles per hour in a 65-mph zone. He was also (allegedly) intoxicated and was booked for DUI.

Driving under the influence is no laughing matter, but that didn’t stop the jokes. Turner only speeds in his car, he wasn’t hard to chase down, now we know why Turner has a beer belly, his BAC was higher than his YPC, isn’t he too fat for an Audi R8 etc, etc…

Anyway, enough funny business. From a legal perspective, Turner projects to avoid a suspension. This is his first offense of the league’s substance-abuse policy. The only way the NFL would step in is if they deem there are “aggravating circumstances.” But even if there are, commissioner Roger Goodell has recently shown a tendency to wait to act until a guilty plea is officially entered. As Marshawn Lynch has shown, lawyers are capable of delaying such pleas until the season is over.

Will the Falcons use this incident to phase him out of the offense? They won’t say so, but it would make sense on multiple levels. At age 30, Turner has absolutely no burst left. He’s just an awful fit that is holding back this potentially dominant offense from fulfilling its potential. It’s only been two games, but he’s consistently put Matt Ryan in second-and-long spots with his 2.6 YPC.

Eventually, the Falcons should install Jason Snelling as their early-down back and Jacquizz Rodgers as the change-of-pace option. Turner owners need to be off board before that happens.

NEWS OF THE DAY #2
Let’s talk all things Patriots.

The latest timetable on Aaron Hernandez (ankle) is reportedly 4-6 weeks. That means the earliest he’ll be back is Week 6 and the latest is Week 8. However, with a Week 9 bye looming it’s possible the Patriots play it safe and hold him out until Week 10.

Meanwhile, they signed Kellen Winslow on Tuesday. Yawn. Winslow’s knees have sapped his athletic ability and he won’t learn the Patriots’ system in a week. He won’t be an every-down tight end like Hernandez was, instead rotating in.

Wes Welker will feel the bigger impact. Although OC Josh McDaniels is hinting that Julian Edelman will stick in two-wide sets, he’ll likely run a ton more three-wide sets now that Hernandez is out. Welker will get on the field enough to be a viable fantasy play.

And speaking of fantasy plays, Brandon Lloyd is on the verge of a breakout. He’s been targeted 21 times already, good for ninth in the league. He’s had a fistful of near-misses with Tom Brady. With Hernandez out, Lloyd will get even more looks. It’s coming.

NEWS OF THE DAY #3
Ahmad Bradshaw (neck) did not practice Tuesday. He’s day to day and it looks like a mere sprain, but the short week hurts him a lot. I suspect Bradshaw will not play in Thursday’s game against the Panthers.

Coach Tom Coughlin confirmed that Andre Brown will start if Bradshaw sits. That’s because David Wilson remains in the doghouse due to pass protection and ball security issues. Brown has spot-start appeal right now.

NEWS OF THE DAY #4
This Lions’ running back situation is messy. They showed absolutely no faith in Kevin Smith against the Niners, using Joique Bell for long stretches. And then the coaches relentlessly talked up Mikel Leshoure, who is off suspension.

"People are pretty keyed into our passing game right now, playing man-under, safeties back, make you have to really work to earn to get guys open,” OC Scott Linehan said. “We’ll see how much he’s ready to go in this game but he’ll certainly be involved heavily in the game plan and we’ll go from there. We’ve always felt like he was going to be a big boost for us once he came back in the lineup."

The problem is that Leshoure hasn’t played in a game since college, is coming off an Achilles’ tear and doesn’t fit in the passing game. He may eventually start, but this has committee written all over it.

NEWS OF THE DAY #5
I know Evan Silva disagrees, but I’d be real concerned if I owned Jamaal Charles. He was limited in Week 2 due to soreness in his surgically-repaired knee. That raises a ton of issues.

First and foremost is workload. The coaches are unlikely to ride Charles like a workhorse out of fear that his knee can’t handle it.

Second is effectiveness. If Charles’ knee is still bothering him, he might be a step slow once he gets in the secondary, or not be able to cut as strong.

And finally, we have the Chiefs’ situation. I’m not saying their season is over, but they’re 0-2 and are nine-point underdogs in New Orleans on Sunday. If the season gets away from them at 2-7 or 3-10 and Charles’ knee is still sore on a weekly basis, why push it? Get the knee right for the 2013 season.

DEPTH CHART QUICK SLANTS
Ryan Fitzpatrick said he will lean on Scott Chandler in the red zone a little more now that David Nelson (knee) is done. … Jacob Tamme saw just 35 percent of the snaps on Monday night. He was the intended target on two of Peyton Manning’s first-quarter interceptions. … The Patriots replaced Greg Salas with Deion Branch as their No. 5 receiver. … Bryce Brown has officially moved ahead of Dion Lewis as LeSean McCoy’s backup. … Randy Moss has played on just 29.6 percent of the snaps through two weeks. Have to think he starts rocking the boat soon.

INJURY QUICK SLANTS: QUARTERBACKS AND WIDE RECEIVERS
Hakeem Nicks (foot) is expected to play Thursday night. If he’s active, he’s a must start. … Greg Jennings (groin) is back at practice and ready to go. … Steve Smith (knee) put in a limited practice Thursday. He should be fine. … Blaine Gabbert (glute) will start vs. the Colts Sunday.

INJURY QUICK SLANTS: RUNNING BACKS AND TIGHT ENDS
Rashard Mendenhall (knee) is back in contract drills, but the most realistic return date remains Week 5. … Jonathan Stewart (ankle) did not practice Tuesday. He’s questionable for Thursday’s game. The short week obviously hurts. … James Starks (turf toe) is back at practice as he angles for time behind Cedric Benson. … Rashad Jennings (knee) has a shot to serve as Maurice Jones-Drew’s backup Sunday.

WAIVERS
DEFENSIVE SPOTS STARTS
Adding a different D/ST each week based on matchups is a fine strategy. Here are three units that might be on waivers to consider for streaming purposes:

* For more waiver thoughts at all positions, check out Chris Wesseling’s latest here.

1. LIONS at Titans - The Titans’ offensive line is playing as poorly as any singular unit in the league. That’s not a good thing when the Lions’ fearsome front four is coming to town.

2. SAINTS vs. Chiefs - It’s often said that the NFL is a desperation league. Well, the 0-2 Saints are certainly desperate this week. The Chiefs are also 0-2, but expectations and talent level are totally different here. Expect the Superdome to be in a frenzy.

3. COLTS vs. Jaguars - Last year, we blindly went against Blaine Gabbert often and had good success. If Gabbert’s Week 2 performance is an indication, we can employ the same strategy this year.

 

[HacheMan]

Matchup: Giants @ Panthers Thursday Night Football

NY Giants @ Carolina

The Giants' offense took off in Sunday's 41-34 shootout win over Tampa. Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Martellus Bennett, and Andre Brown all set career highs of some sort in the kind of game that can foreshadow an offensive tear. Vegas put a 51-point over-under on Giants-Panthers, the second highest Week 3 projection behind only Chiefs-Saints. If you've got a stud available Thursday night -- on either team -- don't think twice. Start 'em. ... I watched the Giants-Bucs tape and didn't come away thrilled with Brown. He's a workmanlike runner, trusted in blitz pickup and able to gain yardage blocked open by his line. I think he flashed quick feet, but did not show elusive traits and has average burst. But Brown was clearly the feature runner after Ahmad Bradshaw (neck) went down and figures to operate as a three-down player against a Panthers team opposing running backs have touched up for 280 yards on 54 carries (5.16 YPC) through two games. Carolina gave up two rushing TDs last week. Heavy playing time against a weak run defense can certainly be a recipe for fantasy success. Brown is a worthwhile flex play. ... David Wilson was the change-of-pace back when Bradshaw was healthy, and remained the C.O.P. back behind Brown when Bradshaw went down. Wilson is a much more talented runner than Brown, but remains error prone and is not trusted by the coaches. Wilson had a brutal first-quarter drop over the middle against Tampa. Despite the Bradshaw injury, Wilson played just six snaps.

Giants third receiver Domenik Hixon was concussed early in Week 2 and Bennett's role increased immediately. It jumped off the tape how often Eli looked to and targeted Bennett in the red zone, not even including his 33-yard fourth-quarter score. Looking back, I wish I had placed Bennett higher in my preseason fantasy rankings. I think he's going to score ten touchdowns and hold his own in receptions and yards. He's an every-week starter and should be locked into lineups in this projected shootout. ... Nicks pulverized Aqib Talib in Week 2 to the point that I wonder if Talib will recover this season. Nicks' stat line (10/199/1) was impressive, but doesn't do the full extent of the damage justice. And Nicks was gutting out a foot injury. Quietly one of the league's toughest wide receivers, start Nicks with confidence at Carolina. ... Cruz worked over Eric Wright, Ronde Barber, and Brandon McDonald for 179 yards and a score on 11 catches in Week 2, seeing a game-high 17 targets. Look for Nicks to square off early and often Thursday night with Panthers fifth-round rookie CB Josh Norman while Cruz deals with LCB Chris Gamble and slot CB Captain Munnerlyn. ... Cruz, Nicks, and Bennett can all have big followup games. That'd obviously bode well for Eli.

UPDATE: In a stunning development, Nicks was ruled out for Thursday night's game after failing to make the team flight to Carolina. The Giants will turn to Cruz as their go-to receiver, with Bennett also in line for a larger piece of the passing-game pie. Cruz already leads the NFL in targets and should pad his stats against the Panthers. Rueben Randle and Ramses Barden figure to rotate at Nicks' X receiver position and are not viable Week 3 fantasy plays.

After a sluggish opener, the Panthers experienced an offensive explosion of their own against the slump-busting Saints defense in Week 2. Carolina obliterated New Orleans with read-option run plays, keeping its opponent off balance via deception and misdirection. Cam Newton's rushing stats are supplemented by playcaller Rob Chudzinski's commitment to the college-style running game concepts, and he's also got a favorable Thursday night pass-defense matchup. Through two weeks, the Giants have generated an underwhelming four sacks while allowing Tony Romo and Josh Freeman to combine for 550 yards and a 5:3 TD-to-INT ratio on 37-of-57 passing (64.9 percent). The game tapes and New York's 9.65 YPA allowed both suggest Perry Fewell's defense is susceptible to shot plays downfield. Chudzinski, Newton, and Steve Smith butter their bread with vertical strikes. ... The Giants often employ alleged top cornerback Corey Webster in shadow coverage of opposing No. 1 wide receivers. It's not working out so well. Per Pro Football Focus, offenses are averaging 15.5 yards every time they aim passes Webster's way so far this season. Smith opened the year with back-to-back 100-yard games and should stay hot on Thursday night.

Greg Olsen's Week 1 usage as primarily a pass catcher and slot receiver seemed to bode well for his fantasy outlook, but Olsen was reduced to blocking tight end against the Saints. For his part, Olsen blocked his tail off in the victory. I'm concerned that his week-to-week passing-game usage will depend on Chud's week-to-week game plans. Olsen could easily get stuck on the line helping RT Byron Bell block Justin Tuck in this one. I'd start Bennett, Dennis Pitta, and Kyle Rudolph over Olsen in Week 3. ... Brandon LaFell is worth a long look as a WR3 after totaling 115 yards against New Orleans, 90 on six receptions and 25 on a Statue of Liberty-type run play. LaFell now has 310 yards and two touchdowns in his last four games. If Smith draws Webster, LaFell will see a lot of Michael Coe, Justin Tryon, rookie Jayron Hosley, and perhaps hobbled Prince Amukamara in coverage. ... Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are flex options against a Giants run defense that has been hit or miss in its first two games. Williams received 14 touches in Stewart's Week 2 return from an ankle injury. Stewart got 12. Mike Tolbert got four. They're all good players -- Stewart the best -- but it's a largely unreliable backfield from a fantasy perspective.

Score Prediction: Giants 31, Panthers 28

 

[HacheMan]

Week 3 Target Watch – NFC Now that we have two games under our belt, I’ll be showing you the per-week targets and the total number of targets. So for Larry Fitzgerald you’ll see “Larry Fitzgerald: 11-5 (16).” That means he had eleven targets Week 1, five targets Week 2 for a total of 16 targets. Math!!

Before we get to the NFC team breakdowns for this week (AFC on Thursday), let’s take a quick look at the top targets overall for the NFL at each position.

<table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr class="TableTopRed"><td>Rk</td><td>Wide Receiver</td><td>Tar</td><td> </td><td>Rk</td><td>Running Back</td><td>Tar</td><td> </td><td>Rk</td><td>Tight End</td><td>Tar</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>1</td><td>Victor Cruz</td><td>28</td><td width="50"> </td><td>1</td><td>Darren McFadden</td><td>25</td><td width="50"> </td><td>1</td><td>Dennis Pitta</td><td>24</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>2</td><td>Reggie Wayne</td><td>25</td><td> </td><td>2</td><td>Darren Sproles</td><td>22</td><td> </td><td>2</td><td>Jimmy Graham</td><td>23</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>3</td><td>Danny Amendola</td><td>25</td><td> </td><td>3</td><td>Ray Rice</td><td>14</td><td> </td><td>3</td><td>Brent Celek</td><td>19</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>4</td><td>A.J. Green</td><td>23</td><td> </td><td>4</td><td>LeSean McCoy</td><td>12</td><td> </td><td>4</td><td>Owen Daniels</td><td>17</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>5</td><td>Percy Harvin</td><td>21</td><td> </td><td>5</td><td>Matt Forte</td><td>11</td><td> </td><td>5</td><td>Jermichael Finley</td><td>16</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>6</td><td>Brandon Lloyd</td><td>21</td><td> </td><td>6</td><td>Reggie Bush</td><td>10</td><td> </td><td>6</td><td>Tony Gonzalez</td><td>16</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>7</td><td>Dwayne Bowe</td><td>21</td><td> </td><td>7</td><td>Chris Johnson</td><td>10</td><td> </td><td>7</td><td>Martellus Bennett</td><td>16</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>8</td><td>Hakeem Nicks</td><td>21</td><td> </td><td>8</td><td>Arian Foster</td><td>10</td><td> </td><td>8</td><td>Rob Gronkowski</td><td>15</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>9</td><td>Vincent Jackson</td><td>20</td><td> </td><td>9</td><td>Curtis Brinkley</td><td>9</td><td> </td><td>9</td><td>Coby Fleener</td><td>14</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>10</td><td>Brian Hartline</td><td>20</td><td> </td><td>10</td><td>Kevin Smith</td><td>9</td><td> </td><td>10</td><td>Brandon Pettigrew</td><td>14</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>11</td><td>Brandon Marshall</td><td>20</td><td> </td><td>11</td><td>Ronnie Brown</td><td>9</td><td> </td><td> </td></tr></tbody></table>

The surprises on these lists are Hartline, Brinkley, Brown, Pitta, and to a lesser extent Bennett and Amendola. But really, for the most part, I would not have been surprised at all if someone would have given this to me before week one.

Arizona Cardinals

Larry Fitzgerald: 11-5 (16), Todd Heap: 4-9 (13), Andre Roberts: 9-1 (10), Early Doucet: 3-4 (7), Ryan Williams: 3-2 (5), La'Rod Stephens-Howling: 1-2 (3), Jeff King: 3-0 (3), Anthony Sherman: 1-1 (2), Rob Housler: 0-1 (1), Michael Floyd: 1-0 (1), Beanie Wells: 0-1 (1)

So far the Cardinals are winning with defense, so they aren’t airing it out all that often. The quarterback situation is, as always, a painful one for those who have Larry Fitzgerald on their team. The good news is he’s too good to be held down for long.

Andre Roberts continues to be the #2 wide receiver with 30 pass routes to 20 for Early Doucet, but his one target is of course troubling, even though he got into the end zone.

Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams split time evenly, but Williams’ near game losing fumble will most likely cost him time on the field for a while.



Atlanta Falcons

Roddy White: 8-11 (19), Tony Gonzalez: 6-10 (16), Julio Jones: 9-7 (16), Harry Douglas: 4-3 (7), Jacquizz Rodgers: 2-1 (3), Michael Palmer: 1-0 (1), Jason Snelling: 0-1 (1), Michael Turner: 0-1 (1)

With Julio Jones having one of his worst games as a pro, Roddy White stepped up in a big way and led the team in targets, just like the olden days of last season. I wouldn’t worry much about Jones. Tracy Porter seems to have found the fountain of youth the first two games.

Once again Michael Turner looked like a fat pug trying to roll uphill, but he was still in on 43 plays compared to 26 for Jacquizz Rodgers. It seems like only a matter of time before that becomes more of an even split.


Carolina Panthers

Steve Smith: 11-4 (15), Brandon LaFell: 5-8 (13), Greg Olsen: 7-3 (10), Louis Murphy: 5-0 (5), Mike Tolbert: 3-2 (5), Kealoha Pilares: 1-1 (2), DeAngelo Williams: 1-0 (1), Jonathan Stewart: dnp-1 (1)

Steve Smith left the week two game against the Saints to have his knee checked on, which might have slowed him down some, while Brandon LaFell picked up the slack. LaFell’s usage is right on par with Smith’s and as long as the Panthers’ defense gives up points, LaFell will be needed.

The rushing game for the Panthers was on fire last week with all three running backs and Cam Newton getting into the end zone. But that also means we will continue to see the carries and targets split up thinly. Jonathan Stewart is the best back on the team, but he is still dealing with ankle trouble.



Chicago Bears

Brandon Marshall: 15-5 (20), Matt Forte: 6-5 (11), Earl Bennett: 4-6 (10), Alshon Jeffery: 5-2 (7), Kellen Davis: 1-6 (7), Devin Hester: 2-1 (3), Matt Spaeth: 0-2 (2), Evan Rodriguez: 1-0 (1)

The Thursday night game was an ugly one for the Bears. Brandon Marshall dropped a touchdown pass and 10 targets from week one. Of course this was a rivalry game on the road against an elite Packers team that didn’t want to go 0-2.

The targets for Alshon Jeffery and Earl Bennett are going to need monitoring. If Jeffery isn’t the clear cut #2 receiver, it will be hard starting him consistently.

Kellen Davis saw a nice uptick in targets and found the end zone in the process. If he continues to see targets he could become a consistent red zone player.


Dallas Cowboys

Miles Austin: 4-10 (14), Jason Witten: 3-10 (13), Dez Bryant: 5-7 (12), Kevin Ogletree: 11-1 (12), Felix Jones: 2-5 (7), DeMarco Murray: 2-4 (6), John Phillips: 1-2 (3), James Hanna: 1-0 (1)

The best news to come out of week two for the Cowboys is Miles Austin playing injury free and seeing ten targets which he caught five of, one for a touchdown. He’s once again an every week start.

From the ‘we all saw this coming’ files, Kevin Ogletree had one target. He has value still as the #3 receiver in Dallas, but being low on the totem pole means he’ll have games like this, especially against good defenses.

Jason Witten still doesn’t look to be completely back, but his 10 targets are a good sign. He should round into form soon.

Felix Jones had a lot of targets, but Murray is still the main man and had four targets of his own. He’ll rebound against Tampa Bay.


Detroit Lions

Calvin Johnson: 7-12 (19), Brandon Pettigrew: 10-4 (14), Tony Scheffler: 8-3 (11), Nate Burleson: 8-3 (11), Kevin Smith: 6-3 (9), Titus Young: 3-3 (6), Joique Bell: 0-3 (3), Will Heller: 2-1 (3), Keiland Williams: 1-0 (1), Stefan Logan: 1-0 (1)

The Lions passing game has come up against two good pass defenses in the Rams and 49ers and Matt Stafford’s 2 touchdowns to four interceptions ratio can attest to that. But there is no doubt this team is going to throw the ball and throw it a bunch.

Titus Young once again ran behind Nate Burleson as far as snaps are concerned, but he did have the same number of targets. That’s a good sign, but not definitive. Young is the better talent at this point though.

With Mikel Leshoure coming back it’s hard to know how the running back situation is going to shake down. Last week Smith was on the field for 36 plays and Bell for 20. Next week we will probably see Smith and LeShoure split work, with LeShoure getting early down work and goal line carries.


Green Bay Packers

Jordy Nelson: 7-9 (16), Jermichael Finley: 11-5 (16), James Jones: 6-5 (11), Randall Cobb: 9-2 (11), Greg Jennings: 9-dnp (9), Cedric Benson: 0-4 (4), John Kuhn: 0-3 (3), Donald Driver: 0-1 (1), D.J. Williams: 0-1 (1)

With Greg Jennings out, James Jones picked up most of his snaps. It didn’t translate into production as Jones had two receptions for negative-one yard, but there it is.

Jordy Nelson remains the stalwart in the passing game and is the guy to own. In more pass friendly games, the Packers receivers will have value besides at the top, so Jones and Cobb shouldn’t be judged by this game alone.

Cedric Benson looks to have sewn up the starting running back position with 20 carries and four targets. Even with James Starks coming back soon, Benson is easily the guy to own.
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Minnesota Vikings

Percy Harvin: 8-13 (21), Kyle Rudolph: 7-5 (12), Michael Jenkins: 5-6 (11), Devin Aromashodu: 3-3 (6), Adrian Peterson: 1-3 (4), Toby Gerhart: 1-3 (4), Stephen Burton: 0-2 (2), Matt Asiata: 1-0 (1), John Carlson: 1-0 (1)

It’s very nice to see the Vikings’ two best receivers at the top of the target list. This trend should continue and Harvin and Rudolph will be joined by Jerome Simpson in week four, which should open up the offense even more.

Adrian Peterson probably didn’t get the workload or fantasy points that you expected out of him against the Colts, but he did get three targets, which he caught all of. That’s good news for sure.


New Orleans Saints

Jimmy Graham: 10-13 (23), Darren Sproles: 8-14 (22), Marques Colston: 11-4 (15), Lance Moore: 10-5 (15), Pierre Thomas: 1-6 (7), Joseph Morgan: 2-3 (5), David Thomas: 2-1 (3), Jed Collins: 2-0 (2), Devery Henderson: 2-dnp (2), Courtney Roby: 0-1 (1), Mark Ingram: 1-0 (1)

Drew Brees already has 101 attempts through two games and amazingly, for him, has only completed 55 of those. So we have a lot of targets here! Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles are the obvious target leaders week in and week out, with both of them ranked second at their position.

After them, Marques Colston and Lance Moore are tied for third on the team. That’s good news for Moore owners and not as good news for Colston owners. But it is still too early to make too many assumptions here. Both Moore and Colston had similar snap counts, but Moore actually topped him by two. Don’t lose sight of Moore in this crazy offense.

Pierre Thomas went off with very limited touches against the Panthers, but Mark Ingram got the goal line work and a touchdown. Thomas was on the field 32 snaps compared to Ingram with 21. Thomas will continue to see work when the Saints are in passing mode, which is most of the time.


New York Giants

Victor Cruz: 11-17 (28), Hakeem Nicks: 6-15 (21), Martellus Bennett: 6-10 (16), Domenik Hixon: 5-1 (6), Henry Hynoski: 1-1 (2), Andre Brown: 0-2 (2), Ramses Barden: 0-2 (2), David Wilson: 0-2 (2), Ahmad Bradshaw: 2-0 (2), Bear Pascoe: 1-0 (1)

Victor Cruz leads the world in targets and is tied with Hakeem Nicks with receiving yards. Those two are the clear cut passing threats for Giants without a doubt.

Tight end Martellus Bennett took another unicorn step forward with double digit targets and four red zone targets and a touchdown. Eli Manning loves throwing to tight ends.

Ahmad Bradshaw left the game and instead of rookie David Wilson taking over, Andre Brown became the lead back, and did very well.


Philadelphia Eagles

DeSean Jackson: 11-8 (19), Brent Celek: 8-11 (19), Jeremy Maclin: 14-1 (15), LeSean McCoy: 9-3 (12), Clay Harbor: 6-2 (8), Jason Avant: 5-2 (7), Damaris Johnson: 3-1 (4), Stanley Havili: 0-1 (1)

Jeremy Maclin’s injury helped boost Brent Celek to a nice 11 target eight reception, 157 yard day. And Desean Jackson continues to have a rejuvenated year after a horrid 2011. Both lead the Eagles in targets and if Maclin is still gimpy, they’ll continue to do so for a while.

If Maclin is out, I would have a hard time trying to recommend an Eagles wide receiver to replace him with. Jason Avant has seen the most work this season between him and Clay Harbor and would most likely be the guy.


San Francisco 49ers

Michael Crabtree: 9-7 (16), Vernon Davis: 5-7 (12), Mario Manningham: 4-4 (8), Randy Moss: 4-1 (5), Frank Gore: 1-4 (5), Delanie Walker: 2-2 (4), Kendall Hunter: 0-3 (3), Kyle Williams: 0-2 (2)

Michael Crabtree’s team high 16 targets and 13 receptions are nice, but much like last season, he is getting no love from Alex Smith near the goal line. Crabtree has had zero targets inside the red zone this season.

Randy Moss is just not seeing enough time on the field to be a fantasy factor. Delanie Walker and Kyle Williams both have run more passing routes than he has.

Frank Gore continues to be the main back while Kendall Hunter remains the complementary back. It may not be until the second half that Hunter becomes useful in fantasy.


Seattle Seahawks

Sidney Rice: 9-5 (14), Braylon Edwards: 9-0 (9), Doug Baldwin: 6-1 (7), Anthony McCoy: 1-5 (6), Golden Tate: dnp-4 (4), Zach Miller: 3-1 (4), Robert Turbin: 1-2 (3), Marshawn Lynch: 2-0 (2), Leon Washington: 0-1 (1), Evan Moore: 0-1 (1), Ben Obomanu: 1-0 (1)

The Seahawks passing game is on the fourth rung, with the running game, defense and special teams all ahead. Russell Wilson looked much better in his second start, but didn’t have to do much with a lead and Marshawn Lynch.

Braylon Edwards went from nine targets to zero due to Golden Tate taking over the starting gig. Neither is fantasy relevant though.

The Seahawks had three tight ends see significant time on the field, but Anthony McCoy led the way this week in snaps and targets and a touchdown. If one of them could take over as the main guy, there’s a chance he could be relevant.


St. Louis Rams

Danny Amendola: 9-16 (25), Brandon Gibson: 5-4 (9), Steve Smith: 3-5 (8), Lance Kendricks: 2-2 (4), Steven Jackson: 4-0 (4), Chris Givens: 1-2 (3), Daryl Richardson: 0-3 (3), Matthew Mulligan: 0-2 (2), Brian Quick: dnp-1 (1), Mike McNeill: 1-0 (1)

The target hog award for week two goes to one Danny Amendola and with nobody taking a huge step up besides him in the passing game, it should stay that way for a while.

Steven Jackson left the game under suspicious circumstances, but it seems that he had a groin strain, which would be suspicious if he hadn’t gotten it during the game, but I digress. Daryl Richardson came in for Jackson and had a very nice game.

Isaiah Pead was only on the field for two snaps, so he is not in the mix for playing time anytime soon.

Brandon Gibson is the #2 receiver and he has found the end zone in the first two games, but his lack of targets and yardage means he’ll need to keep that streak going if he wants to remain fantasy relevant, and I know that fantasy relevancy is the only thing NFL players care about.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Vincent Jackson: 10-10 (20), Mike Williams: 3-5 (8), Doug Martin: 4-3 (7), Dallas Clark: 1-5 (6), Preston Parker: 1-1 (2), Sammie Stroughter: 0-2 (2), D.J. Ware: 0-1 (1), LeGarrette Blount: 1-0 (1)

Vincent Jackson has the target numbers you want to see, especially in an offense that isn’t pass first. If those numbers can stay that consistent, he will be a must start every week.

Doug Martin has been just okay so far and that’s mainly due to his lack of receptions and yards after the receptions he has had. Last week he had three targets, but didn’t catch any of them. To be a top fantasy back he’ll need to become more efficient in the passing game.


Washington Redskins

Aldrick Robinson: 6-3 (9), Fred Davis: 4-5 (9), Santana Moss: 5-3 (8), Josh Morgan: 2-5 (7), Roy Helu: 3-1 (4), Pierre Garcon: 4-dnp (4), Niles Paul: 0-3 (3), Leonard Hankerson: 0-3 (3), Evan Royster: 0-3 (3), Logan Paulsen: 1-0 (1), Brandon Banks: 1-0 (1)

When you look at these numbers it’s hard to imagine the quarterback throwing these people the ball is the number one fantasy quarterback in the league through two games. But he is and it’s not only because of his running ability. He’s averaging over 13 yards per completion and if Pierre Garcon can get healthy, he’ll keep making long connections.

The lack of Fred Davis is concerning to many who thought he would have a nice year with RGIII. He is actually tied for the lead in targets for the team, but unfortunately that’s just nine targets. I’m not willing to throw him on the scrap heap yet because this passing offense hasn’t completely figured out what it’s all about, but I am benching him for the time being.

Snap count data comes from our friends at Pro Football Focus and red zone data from our other friends at The Football Guys.

 

[HacheMan]

Ranks reax: Oh, those inconsistent WRs

Eric Karabell

No position in fantasy football fluctuates like the wide receiver spot, which is proved not only by erratic point totals the first few weeks of the season, but in the Week 3 staff rankings. Consider that in Week 1 Kevin Ogletree, Julio Jones, Stephen Hill, Lance Moore, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall and Demaryius Thomas each scored 17 or more fantasy points. In Week 2, that group, save for Thomas (fantasy's top wide receiver so far), combined for 10 fantasy points. So if you own one of those fellows, mainly the ones who should be considered as starters, how does one analyze their worth?




<offer>My general rule is to stick with the reliable top options, which is why Atlanta's Jones again received a top nod from me (No. 2). A quick look at the Week 3 wide receiver rankings shows there are some rather large differences of opinion when it comes to this position, certainly more so than at quarterback and tight end, where the fantasy starters generally remain as such. At running back, staffers and general public debate about struggling players, such as Chris Johnson and Michael Turner, but at wide receiver, even the perceived top options are all over the place. I cannot speak for my colleagues, and on a Wednesday before the games commence, nobody is wrong yet, but check out these examples:</offer>
<offer></offer>
<offer>• Houston Texans stud Andre Johnson was ranked as high as No. 2 and as low as No. 23. So far Johnson has one good game and one bad (naturally, right?), and my rank is 11th, pretty much in the middle, for a potentially fruitful matchup at Denver. The Texans are such a strong running team that I don't know how often Johnson will be among my top 10 options, if at all. He's talented but also brittle, and quarterback Matt Schaub has really dipped in relation to others at his position, from borderline top-10 early last year to 14th at quarterback in average live drafts, and now he's barely top 20.


• You knew this was coming with the Arizona Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald. Again, I'm largely in the middle at No. 12, but one ranker had him third and another 28th (and those rankers were similar on Johnson as well). I'm not giving up on Fitz. I'm also not sold that his issues are related to Kevin Kolb. That would presume all would be well with John Skelton. I don't buy chemistry as an issue. I think Fitzgerald will exploit Philly's secondary, though I don't like Kolb much. Remember, Fitzgerald was a top-10 fantasy wide receiver last year. Yes, don't look back, but he has the same quarterbacks.


• A few players I'm not in the middle on: the top Dallas Cowboys options. Miles Austin drew a No. 5 rank from one of us, and myself and another had him 19th. Similarly, I didn't seem too excited about Dez Bryant. I trust Tony Romo, but not his options, either their health or consistency. Plus, while Romo has terrific numbers against the Buccaneers in his career (3-0, 11 touchdowns, 0 interceptions), what does that really tell us? The current Bucs got lit up by Eli Manning for 510 passing yards, but this feels like a trap trend to me. Austin and Bryant, the latter with just one 100-yard receiving game in his career, are not Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.


• Frankly, I'm all aboard the Josh Freeman-Vincent Jackson train. I ranked Jackson 10th at wide receiver, far better than the staff average, because he really is a difference maker, and he's getting a lot of targets. Perhaps Mike Williams will start to see a more equitable distribution of Freeman passes soon, but Jackson was a top-10 fantasy option in San Diego, and he's looking good so far in Tampa.


As for thoughts about quarterbacks this week, the range on ranks for Michael Vick is interesting. The Cardinals kept Tom Brady mostly in check and now return home to face a guy with six interceptions and a fumble already. Vick scares me. … I like both Manning brothers more than the others. Peyton does have excellent career numbers against the Texans (16-2, 42 TDs, 8 INTs), but that played no role here. These Texans play defense. But I'm not assuming another three-pick game for Manning, either. … If I'm in a two-league or deeper format, I'd still go with unexciting veterans like Matt Cassel and Mark Sanchez over those other rookies like Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden.


At running back, so far it's one good game for Adrian Peterson, one bad game. Now he gets the mighty San Francisco 49ers. I ranked Peterson 14th, but if I was going to move him in one direction, it'd probably be closer to No. 20 than No. 10. In two games against the 49ers, a healthy Peterson averaged 44 rushing yards and did not score. And these 49ers are better defensively. None of us ranked Matt Forte, and I was a bit cooler on Michael Bush than others. He's a second running back for me, someone to trust, but the way the Bears burned everyone in the Week 2 Thursday game at Green Bay does have me a tad concerned about anyone not named Brandon Marshall. Nice job, Jay Cutler.


Expect Ryan Mathews to play for San Diego, and while one staff rank was seventh and another 24th, again I was in the middle at 17. I would start him, though. Honestly, I could see either 18 fantasy points or four. … Nobody expects Ahmad Bradshaw to play Thursday, and I guess I'm cooler on Andre Brown than others, placing him 30th. How can you trust him? … The Giants meet the Panthers, a team that couldn't run at all in Week 1, then exploded for 219 rushing yards against the Saints. If Jonathan Stewart plays, and I think he will, I would use him over DeAngelo Williams, but I was alone on that one. It's about the receiving yards there, and neither gets the goal-line looks anyway.
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Mathews Machinations
Drafting Ryan Mathews at No. 11 overall.

It seemed like such a good idea on August 27. Yes, you’d likely be without your No. 1 pick for 1-2 games, but that’s what Peyton Hillis in the ninth round was for. Surely you could weather two weeks without your RB1, right?

24 days and an 0-2 record later, you’re not so certain. The good news is, you won’t be in for another week of “playing matchups” with Hillis and Isaac Redman. That’s because Mathews finally got in a “full” practice on Wednesday.

He’ll suit up in full pads this afternoon, and barring a setback, will be good to go against a Falcons’ run defense that’s been torched for 270 yards through two games.

If coach Norv Turner is to be believed, you won’t even have to deal with any of this “easing in” nonsense, either. "As soon as that thing heals, he'll be ready to go," were Turner’s words on Mathews’ collarbone on August 29. Translation: there won’t be any training wheels for the Bolts’ feature back once he’s finally deemed ready for game action.

Trusting Mathews is not for the faint of heart. It’s a trust that’s yet to be reciprocated in the form of prolonged dominance. But patience is a virtue, and virtue always leads to good things. You've played the waiting game. Now prepare for the winning game.

Nicked Up Nicks

If Mathews’ return was Wednesday’s bright spot, Hakeem Nicks’ surprise deactivation was the lowlight.

Playing through pain in Week 1, Nicks gave fantasy owners reason for pause, catching just four passes for 38 yards. Then the Bucs came to town, and Nicks torched “shutdown corner” Aqib Talib for 10 catches and 199 yards.

Only Nicks got his troublesome right foot (inadvertently) stomped on near the end of New York’s 41-34 win. He played through the injury Sunday, but it apparently swelled up on Monday. Nicks didn’t make enough progress by Wednesday to even travel with the G-Men to Carolina for this evening’s game.

It’s bad news for a Giants team that could find itself in a shootout with Cam Newton’s Panthers, and an even tougher break for fantasy owners. The upshot, though, is that Nicks doesn’t appear to have suffered a “true” setback, and likely would have played had the Giants been on a regular week.

As ESPN New York’s Ohm Youngmisuk puts it, the Giants are opting to give Nicks two weeks of rest instead of making him play in two games in five days. Fantasy owners might hate it now, but it should pay dividends in the long run.

Running Back Roulette

Another Wednesday, another day full of returns, surprise limited practices and cryptic updates. We’ll start with Steven Jackson (groin), who was held out of Rams practice even though an MRI revealed “no serious damage.”

A nine-year veteran with 2,168 career carries, Jackson is the kind of player who can play on Sunday with zero reps Wednesday-Friday. A Thursday or Friday return would certainly be preferable, however.

The Rams opted for caution with their workhorse back in last weekend’s win. It wouldn’t be the most surprising thing if they did so again on Sunday against the Bears.

Jonathan Stewart

Stewart is officially a game-time call for tonight’s tilt with the G-Men, but coach Ron Rivera didn’t sound optimistic about his status on Wednesday.

"It's one those things where if we're playing on Sunday, he's got a much, much better chance than he does if we're playing on Thursday," Rivera said. "He came out (Wednesday) and it was still a little stiff, a little bit sore. They're going to continue to work it out and see how he is."

Hardly reassuring words about a player who’s now been a game-time decision three weeks running. Owners need to be making other plans at their RB2/flex spot.

Matt Forte

The Bears swear Forte doesn’t have a high-ankle sprain, but he still wasn’t ready to practice Wednesday despite being six days removed from last Thursday’s “Tumult on the Tundra.”

It’s, of course, a very poor sign for Forte’s Week 3 status, and likely an indication he’ll miss at least one game. A lot can change between now and Sunday morning, but owners need to be prepared for things to stay the same.

Running Back Quick Slants: Ahmad Bradshaw (neck) was ruled out for Thursday Night Football. Look for Andre Brown to get the start against Carolina’s still-porous run defense, and for rookie David Wilson to serve in a change-of-pace role. … Rashard Mendenhall (knee) got in a “full” practice for the third straight Wednesday, but still isn’t expected to contribute in the month of September. … Mendenhall’s teammate Jonathan Dwyer (toe) missed practice for the second consecutive Wednesday, but like he did in Week 2, he should return on Thursday and play on Sunday. … Coming off back-to-back 18-touch performances, Adrian Peterson (knee) appears ticketed for an even bigger workload against the 49ers. That could depend on game-flow, however. … Jamaal Charles is practicing in full this week despite experiencing soreness in his surgically-repaired left knee on Sunday. Although his reps may be monitored, he’ll be a borderline RB1 against the Saints’ pathetic run defense. … ESPN's Chris Mortensen believes Mikel Leshoure could receive as many as 15 touches in his NFL debut. That seems extremely optimistic, but if Leshoure looks good early, the Lions might not hesitate to give him a heavy workload. As evidenced by Sunday’s dabbling with Joique Bell and the recent workouts of Ryan Grant and Steve Slaton, Detroit clearly isn’t satisfied with Kevin Smith outside the passing game. … Jerry Jones insisted he’s not planning to release Felix Jones. Vote of confidence comes before the fall.

Receiver Quick Slants: None of Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Roddy White, Mike Wallace or Emmanuel Sanders practiced Wednesday. All five are good bets to return this afternoon and be active for Week 3. … Jeremy Maclin (hip) sat out, while DeSean Jackson (hamstring) was limited. The lea leaves suggest D-Jax will play, Maclin won’t. … Steve Smith (knee) is probable for tonight’s game, but coach Ron Rivera calls his presence on the injury report a “formality.” He’s a WR1 for Week 3. … Kenny Britt is expected to play “a lot more” Sunday after taking the field for just 19 snaps in his 2012 debut. For now, consider Britt a boom-or-bust WR3 until his health is proven. … Britt’s teammate Nate Washington (calf) was “back at full strength” in Wednesday’s practice, and should be in for a much bigger role after being limited to 22 snaps Sunday. He’s still nothing more than a WR4, however. … Greg Salas rejoined the Patriots via the practice squad. … Austin Collie was “full-go"...just like he was last Wednesday. Believe it when you see it with Indy’s would-be No. 2 wideout.

Depressing Chris Johnson Stats of the Week: Johnson has 21 total rushing yards through two games. Including two receptions, C.J. Spiller has six individual gains of at least 20 yards. … At Johnson’s current rate, it would take him 190.5 games to reach 2,000 yards. … 70 players have rushed for more yards than Johnson. Among them are Justin Forsett, Tashard Choice, Danny Woodhead, Tim Tebow, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jackie Battle. … 11 quarterbacks have rushed for more yards than Johnson. Johnson is tied with Aaron Rodgers. He has one more yard than Alex Smith, two more than Kevin Kolb. … The 25 yards Brandon Weeden gained on a Week 1 scramble remain four more yards than Johnson has gained all season. Weeden has 10 more total yards on the ground than CJ11-4K.



In Case You Missed It: Smokin' Jay Cutler.

 

[HacheMan]

Week 3 Target Watch – AFC Welcome to the AFC version of Target Watch. You will find all of the AFC teams below, with all of their passing targets, plus some snap count data and words my brain neuroned together after analyzing the NFC teams on Wednesday.

With two weeks of data under our hat I’ll be showing y’all per-week targets and the total number of targets. So for Dennis Pitta you’ll see “Dennis Pitta: 9-15 (24).” That means he had nine targets week one, fifteen targets week two, for a total of 24 targets. Addition!!

But before we get to all of these AFC teams, let me give you the top players for red zone targets and carries. Look at this handy dandy chart below.

Red Zone Targets Red Zone Targets Red Zone Carries
<table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr class="TableTopRed"><td>Rk</td><td>Wide Receiver</td><td>Tar</td><td> </td><td>Rk</td><td>Tight End</td><td>Tar</td><td> </td><td>Rk</td><td>Running Back</td><td>Rush</td><td>TD</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>1</td><td>Sidney Rice</td><td>6</td><td width="50"> </td><td>1</td><td>Martellus Bennett</td><td>5</td><td width="50"> </td><td>1</td><td>Arian Foster</td><td>13</td><td>3</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>2</td><td>Julio Jones</td><td>5</td><td> </td><td>2</td><td>Jimmy Graham</td><td>5</td><td> </td><td>2</td><td>Willis McGahee</td><td>11</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>3</td><td>Roddy White</td><td>5</td><td> </td><td>3</td><td>Heath Miller</td><td>5</td><td> </td><td>3</td><td>Michael Turner</td><td>10</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>4</td><td>Malcom Floyd</td><td>4</td><td> </td><td>4</td><td>Dante Rosario</td><td>4</td><td> </td><td>4</td><td>Curtis Brinkley</td><td>10</td><td>0</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>5</td><td>Reggie Wayne</td><td>4</td><td> </td><td>5</td><td>Todd Heap</td><td>4</td><td> </td><td>5</td><td>Marshawn Lynch</td><td>9</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>6</td><td>Kevin Ogletree</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>6</td><td>Anthony Fasano</td><td>4</td><td> </td><td>6</td><td>Alfred Morris</td><td>8</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>7</td><td>Brian Hartline</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>7</td><td>Dennis Pitta</td><td>4</td><td> </td><td>7</td><td>Jonathan Dwyer</td><td>8</td><td>0</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>8</td><td>Damian Williams</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>8</td><td>Brandon Pettigrew</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>8</td><td>Doug Martin</td><td>8</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>9</td><td>Doug Baldwin</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>9</td><td>Tony Scheffler</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>9</td><td>Adrian Peterson</td><td>7</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>10</td><td>Antonio Brown</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>10</td><td>Jermaine Gresham</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>10</td><td>Jackie Battle</td><td>7</td><td>2</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>11</td><td>Andre Roberts</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>11</td><td>Rob Gronkowski</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>11</td><td>Stevan Ridley</td><td>7</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>12</td><td>Victor Cruz</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>12</td><td>Scott Chandler</td><td>2</td><td> </td><td>12</td><td>Shonn Greene</td><td>5</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>13</td><td>Eric Decker</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>13</td><td>Fred Davis</td><td>2</td><td> </td><td>13</td><td>Steven Jackson</td><td>5</td><td>0</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>14</td><td>Donnie Avery</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>14</td><td>Clay Harbor</td><td>2</td><td> </td><td>14</td><td>Ahmad Bradshaw</td><td>5</td><td>1</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>15</td><td>Percy Harvin</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>15</td><td>Jacob Tamme</td><td>2</td><td> </td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>16</td><td>Jeremy Maclin</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>16</td><td>Tony Gonzalez</td><td>2</td><td> </td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>17</td><td>Larry Fitzgerald</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>17</td><td>Brent Celek</td><td>2</td><td> </td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>18</td><td>Braylon Edwards</td><td>3</td><td> </td><td>18</td><td>Coby Fleener</td><td>2</td><td> </td></tr></tbody></table>

I’ll let you mull over this red zone chart, but I do want you to pay close attention to the Black Unicorn (Bennett), because he’s on the touchdown radar big time. Oh and these Chargers sure like their running backs. I wonder if that Ryan Mathews fella can do some damage at some point? Well, I guess we’ll just have to wait and see. Onto the targets!!!


Baltimore Ravens

Dennis Pitta: 9-15 (24), Ray Rice: 4-10 (14), Anquan Boldin: 5-4 (9), Torrey Smith: 3-5 (8), Ed Dickson: 3-4 (7), Jacoby Jones: 3-2 (5), Vonta Leach: 3-1 (4), Deonte Thompson: 2-0 (2), Tandon Doss: 0-1 (1)

Who is the target leader for all tight ends? You guessed it, Dennis Pitta, that’s who! And where does he sit in the fantasy tight end rankings? Ninth! Yes! Oh wait, that’s not that great, but it is good, so don’t get all huffy. I side with the targets here and if the targets are there, the fantasy points will come along for the ride.

I’m starting to wonder if Torrey Smith decided to get on board though. Right now he is behind Jacoby Jones and Anquan Boldin in fantasy points. He’s up there with Boldin in targets with eight to his nine, but if he’s getting so few targets he must get into the end zone to be relevant. If we see another five targets or less day against New England, who they should throw against, I’ll be worried.

Ray Rice isn’t getting the rushing attempts his owners want (and deserve!), but he does have nine receptions on 14 targets, which keeps him in prime fantasy territory.


Buffalo Bills

Stevie Johnson: 10-5 (15), Scott Chandler: 6-5 (11), Donald Jones: 7-3 (10), C.J. Spiller: 3-3 (6), David Nelson: 5-dnp (5), Tashard Choice: 0-1 (1), Brad Smith: dnp-1 (1), Lee Smith: 1-0 (1), T.J. Graham: dnp-1 (1)

The Bills didn’t need to air it out against the Chiefs on Sunday because C.J. Spiller hung the Chiefs out to dry. So it’s difficult to see exactly how many targets David Nelson’s replacement, Donald Jones might have had if Fitzpatrick would have thrown more than 19 times.

The good news is for Scott Chandler who managed to up his targets, at least in relation to the other receivers. If he can continue being targeted around the second most on the team, he could become a consistent fantasy option.



Cincinnati Bengals

A.J. Green: 11-12 (23), Jermaine Gresham: 8-5 (13), Andrew Hawkins: 9-3 (12), Armon Binns: 5-5 (10), BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 2-3 (5), Brandon Tate: 2-3 (5)

A.J. Green continues to get his targets in a consistent way. Last year he started out the first three weeks with targets of 4, 14, and 5. If he sees double digits a third straight week, he should easily be a top-5 receiver this season.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis saw a single uptick in targets, which is actually great news for his prospects, especially if he catches each one like he did last week. He hardly saw a target as a Patriot, so this aspect of his game would help him gain more PPR relevance.

Jermaine Gresham’s three red zone targets week one dropped to zero last week. He’s been a consistent red zone target for Dalton, so I think this is probably an anomaly.

Andrew Hawkins proved he could be a factor on just three targets, a big drop from last week. I hate to see the drop, but he looks like the real deal, so his numbers should go back up.



Cleveland Browns

Mohamed Massaquoi: 8-7 (15), Greg Little: 4-7 (11), Trent Richardson: 3-5 (8), Josh Gordon: 4-3 (7), Travis Benjamin: 6-0 (6), Chris Ogbonnaya: dnp-6 (6), Alex Smith: 1-4 (5), Brandon Jackson: 4-dnp (4), Ben Watson: 2-1 (3), Owen Marecic: 2-1 (3), Josh Cribbs: 0-2 (2), Jordan Cameron: 1-0 (1)

We have a bit of a dilemma here. Week one Brandon Weeden was totally overwhelmed by the Eagles defense, but in week two, he looked great against the Bengals, so far, not so good defense. That also coincided with Trent Richardson breaking out, so chicken meet egg. But if you believe Weeden is closer to week two Weeden, then we need to start taking a closer look at these receivers.

The target and reception numbers favor Massaquoi, but he hasn’t found the end zone like Little has, so people aren’t as keen on him and his post-post-sleeperness. I’d say he has just as much a chance as Little and Gordon of breaking out if Weeden can play well.

Chris Ogbonnaya had a crazy six targets and six receptions last week, but Richardson was still in on 21 pass plays compared to Ogbonnaya’s 14. It looks like they will be splitting receiving work for the time being.


Denver Broncos

Demaryius Thomas: 7-11 (18), Eric Decker: 7-8 (15), Brandon Stokley: 3-6 (9), Jacob Tamme: 5-4 (9), Joel Dreessen: 2-2 (4), Willis McGahee: 1-2 (3), Lance Ball: 0-2 (2), Matt Willis: 1-1 (2)

So far Demaryius Thomas is the guy and the guy behind the guy (who’s standing next to Decker) in receptions, yards and touchdowns. There’s no reason to think otherwise going forward. Eric Decker is still useful, but Thomas’ upside is higher week in and week out.

Joel Dreessen was on the field 59 times to Jacob Tamme’s 27, but Tamme had four targets to Dreessen’s two. Right now I’m shying away from both.


Houston Texans

Owen Daniels: 8-9 (17), Andre Johnson: 10-4 (14), Arian Foster: 3-7 (10), Ben Tate: 3-4 (7), Kevin Walter: 2-4 (6), James Casey: 2-4 (6), Keshawn Martin: 1-2 (3), Lestar Jean: 2-0 (2), Garrett Graham: 0-1 (1)

Last week was a rushing parade with Arian Foster and Ben Tate as co-grand marshals. Tate was on the field for 22 plays compared to Foster’s 58. So far Foster has 52 carries and seven targets to Tate’s 12 carries and seven targets. The two to one touchdown lead by Tate will not last.

Andre Johnson’s lack of targets was disappointing, but as long as he’s healthy, you just go onto the next game and collect your fantasy points.

Owen Daniels is the leader in targets, and even though he will go back to second on that list at some point, it’s worth taking notice. In games where they need to pass more, Daniels will be useful in fantasy.

Right now the hopefulness surrounding Lestar Jean and Keshawn Martin was only that. Hope in one hand; pick up Donnie Avery in the other.


Indianapolis Colts

Reggie Wayne: 18-7 (25), Donnie Avery: 8-10 (18), Coby Fleener: 10-4 (14), Kris Adams: 4-3 (7), Mewelde Moore: 1-2 (3), Donald Brown: 2-0 (2), Vick Ballard: 0-1 (1), Dwayne Allen: 0-1 (1), LaVon Brazill: 1-dnp (1), T.Y. Hilton: dnp-1 (1)

Andrew Luck’s 76 pass attempts ranks 8th overall, which is good news for Wayne, Fleener, Avery and/or maybe someday Collie. Those are the only guys worth owning on your team right now and they have decent upsides with Luck and the Indianapolis defense helping them out.

Donald Brown of course is the starter and probably needs to be on teams, but only as a desperation start. Right now he is giving up a lot of work to Vick Ballard and neither are doing much that’s productive.

<!--RW-->Jacksonville Jaguars

Laurent Robinson: 9-6 (15), Justin Blackmon: 6-4 (10), Cecil Shorts: 7-2 (9), Maurice Jones-Drew: 5-3 (8), Marcedes Lewis: 5-0 (5), Mike Thomas: 1-3 (4), Montell Owens: 3-0 (3), Greg Jones: 2-1 (3), Zach Potter: 0-2 (2), Rashad Jennings: 1-dnp (1)

The Houston Texan’s defense of week two was the polar opposite of the Minnesota Vikings defense of week one and Blaine Gabbert felt it more keenly than us bystanders can imagine. The good news is, it looks like he will be better against bad defenses than he was last year.

We really didn’t learn much from this last game since they finished with a franchise record tying 117 total yards. And of course 67 of those yards and the lone touchdown came from Maurice Jones-Drew.

Like last season, there are no offensive players you can count on other than MJD.


Kansas City Chiefs

Dwayne Bowe: 6-15 (21), Dexter McCluster: 10-5 (15), Tony Moeaki: 6-4 (10), Peyton Hillis: 3-3 (6), Jon Baldwin: 0-6 (6), Steve Breaston: 4-1 (5), Shaun Draughn: 2-2 (4), Jamaal Charles: 0-4 (4), Kevin Boss: 2-1 (3)

Dwyane Bowe was the story of week two. Dexter McCluster was the story of week one. I think Dwayne Bowe wins the headlines from here on out. The more Bowe, the less McCluster.


Jon Baldwin saw a nice leap in targets from zilch to six and ended up catching three of them for 62 yards. He will also hurt McCluster’s targets unfortunately. Bowe seems like the only consistent receiver except in great matchups like the Saints this week.

The splits between Peyton Hillis and Jamaal Charles are harder to wrap our brains around. Charles had some soreness in his surgically repaired knee, which probably was the reason Hillis saw 34 snaps to Charles’ 21. They will continue to split snaps until one shows they are superior. That should be JC Superstar, but a lot depends on his knee.


Miami Dolphins

Brian Hartline: 8-12 (20), Davone Bess: 7-6 (13), Reggie Bush: 6-4 (10), Anthony Fasano: 5-3 (8), Charles Clay: 1-3 (4), Legedu Naanee: 2-1 (3), Anthony Armstrong: 3-dnp (3), Daniel Thomas: 3-dnp (3), Jorvorskie Lane: 1-0 (1)

Brian Hartline and Reggie Bush led the way as the Dolphins mangled the Raiders. Bush is easily the centerpiece of the offense, but they hope they have found a number one receiver in Hartline. His 20 targets rank him ninth out of all wide receivers and with little competition, he should continue to get targets.

Reggie Bush ranks 6th out of all running backs for targets and if you add those opportunities to his average of 20 carries a game, he’s set up for good fantasy numbers each week.


New England Patriots

Brandon Lloyd: 8-13 (21), Wes Welker: 5-11 (16), Rob Gronkowski: 6-9 (15), Aaron Hernandez: 7-1 (8), Julian Edelman: 2-6 (8), Stevan Ridley: 3-4 (7), Danny Woodhead: 0-1 (1)

The Patriots offense has yet to find their footing, so these numbers are a bit in flux, especially with the loss of Aaron Hernandez early against the Cardinals.

The good news is that if you own Brandon Lloyd, you can expect a huge game at any moment now. He obviously leads in targets and has just been missed by a Brady a few times. When they get on target, which they will, watch out.

Wes Welker didn’t start, but after Hernandez went down he came in and had 11 targets. Whatever the reasoning behind his ’demotion’ it doesn’t really matter now. Eleven targets are eleven targets.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis had 13 targets all last year while Stevan Ridley has 7 already. That is awesome news for Ridley’s fantasy prospects.


New York Jets

Santonio Holmes: 8-11 (19), Jeff Cumberland: 4-5 (9), Jeremy Kerley: 4-4 (8), Stephen Hill: 6-2 (8), Bilal Powell: 1-2 (3), Chaz Schilens: 1-0 (1), Dustin Keller: 1-dnp (1), Shonn Greene: 1-0 (1), Clyde Gates: dnp-1 (1)

So Jeff Cumberland is second in targets for the Jets. That’s not really what you want.

It looks like Santonio Holmes continues to be the only Jets receiver you can safely roster and even then you can’t really safely start him.

Bilal Powell was on the field more than Shonn Greene, but that’s because Greene was shaken up after a hit. But Powell looks like he has a little more life in his legs and I could see them splitting work soon.


Oakland Raiders

Darren McFadden: 18-7 (25), Rod Streater: 10-3 (13), Darrius Heyward-Bey: 5-8 (13), Brandon Myers: 5-6 (11), Denarius Moore: dnp-8 (8), Derek Hagan: 5-2 (7), Marcel Reece: 2-3 (5), David Ausberry: 1-3 (4), Richard Gordon: 0-4 (4), Mike Goodson: 0-3 (3)

I truly don’t know what to make of this Raiders team yet. They have a ton of offensive upside, but just can’t get moving. Darren McFadden leads the team in yardage and he’s rushed for 54 yards on 26 carries. I don’t even want to do the math! Yeah, he’s gotten most of his yards through the air, but still!

Denarius Moore returned to the lineup and had eight targets. That’s decent news I guess. Especially because Moore is easily their most explosive receiver. If he can get healthy and stay healthy, we may have something here.

Tight end Brandon Myers has been a bit of a revelation so far. He’s had 11 targets and caught all 11 for 151 yards. If he had gotten into the end zone, he’d be in everyone’s waiver wire articles.


Pittsburgh Steelers

Antonio Brown: 8-10 (18), Emmanuel Sanders: 8-4 (12), Mike Wallace: 6-5 (11), Heath Miller: 7-3 (10), Jonathan Dwyer: 4-2 (6), Isaac Redman: 2-1 (3), Chris Rainey: 1-2 (3), Jerricho Cotchery: 1-2 (3), Leonard Pope: 0-1 (1), Will Johnson: dnp-1 (1)

Antonio Brown is getting the targets in Pittsburgh, but hasn’t been able to get into the end zone, much like last season. I think it’s just a matter of time before he starts scoring though.

Emmanuel Sanders is the no doubt #3 receiver now, which will help open things up for everyone on the field, but he’ll drop below Wallace in targets soon. He’s going to have trouble being consistent.

The running back situation is a complete mess with Dwyer and Redman splitting carries and sucking at the same time. Add to that Rashard Mendenhall will likely be back in week 5 and you have a cluster of running backs to not want to own.


San Diego Chargers

Malcom Floyd: 6-8 (14), Ronnie Brown: 5-4 (9), Curtis Brinkley: 5-4 (9), Antonio Gates: 8-dnp (8), Robert Meachem: 2-4 (6), Dante Rosario: 1-4 (5), Eddie Royal: 2-3 (5), Le'Ron McClain: 4-0 (4), Randy McMichael: 0-4 (4), Ladarius Green: dnp-1 (1)

Brown, Brinkley and McClain have 20 receptions on 22 targets. That bodes well for young Mr. Mathews once he returns to full force, which hopefully happens this week.

Malcom Floyd continues to be the target leader, but that’s likely because Gates was out last week. Floyd isn’t going to become a PPR stud anytime soon since Rivers spreads the ball around very well, but he will be a force in the red zone where he has four targets already this season.


Tennessee Titans

Kendall Wright: 6-8 (14), Damian Williams: 6-6 (12), Jared Cook: 6-6 (12), Chris Johnson: 7-3 (10), Nate Washington: 8-2 (10), Darius Reynaud: 4-0 (4), Lavelle Hawkins: 4-0 (4), Craig Stevens: 1-1 (2), Kenny Britt: dnp-2 (2), Jamie Harper: 1-dnp (1), Taylor Thompson: 0-1 (1)

The Titans have looked about as awful as any team this year, but they have more talent on offense than most teams. That gives me at least some hope for a turnaround. That and the fact that Kenny Britt should be back this week. He was “back” last week, but for only 19 plays and two targets. Nate Washington played, but was iffy to play going in and then only had two targets. Kendall Wright, Damian Williams and Jared Cook led the way. They need their full complement of players to be successful.

Chris Johnson has no excuses left for being horrible, so I’m just going to not talk about how horrible he is so maybe a miracle will happen while I sleep. (Think Christmas)

Snap count data comes from our friends at Pro Football Focus and red zone data from our other friends at The Football Guys.

 

[HacheMan]

Week 3 Rankings
Do you ever watch the Raiders and Titans and wonder why the play-callers can’t get Darren McFadden or Chris Johnson the ball in space more often? In fantasy football, as in the NFL, coaching can have a dramatic impact on a player’s production.

There are strong arguments to be made that neither McFadden nor Johnson, both reading and hesitating at the line of scrimmage, is a particularly good fit for a zone-blocking scheme. In 25 games with Tom Cable’s zone-blocking system from 2007-09, McFadden rushed for 856 yards on 217 carries (3.9 YPC) and just one game over 90 yards.

Enter Hue Jackson, a more creative schemer who installed McFadden’s favorite running plays in a power-blocking scheme. In 20 games under Jackson, McFadden exploded for 1,771 rushing yards at 5.1 per clip with 11 games over 90 yards.

I can’t put the disappointing Week 2 performances on the running backs. McFadden simply had no holes to exploit against a dominant Dolphins run defense that hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rushing performance in 16 games. Want a sign that problem lies in blocking, not McFadden? He’s getting first contact on average 0.7 yards downfield compared to 3.6 yards a season ago.

There is no shortage of theories on Johnson’s struggles, but he simply had no chance versus a Chargers defense that has completely shut down both backs in consecutive weeks. Johnson was hit behind the line of scrimmage on two of his first three carries, and the Titans were down 17-0 before they ran their sixth offensive play.

McFadden is confident the Raiders’ ground attack is “going to start popping.” Titans backup Javon Ringer tells us the coaches “want to get C.J. rolling” this week versus the Lions.

What to do in fantasy leagues?

If you can land Johnson for a Michael Bush, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Alfred Morris or even a WR3 type like Malcom Floyd (those small sample size panic offers are out there; I’ve seen them on Twitter), I would pull the trigger. The carry totals have nowhere to go but up, and with that comes the opportunity to add boom to the bust performance to date. As Evan Silva points, the optimal buying point may not come until Week 7, though. CJ401K’s Weeks 4-6 stretch includes daunting matchups versus the Texans and Steelers.

Already having faced two stout run defenses, McFadden draws the shut-down Steelers in Week 3 followed by a strong Broncos defense in Week 4. Coming out of the Week 5 bye, however, McFadden has a walk in the park versus the Falcons, Jaguars and Chiefs. That Week 4-5 window is prime buy-low real estate.



Week 3 Quarterbacks

<table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr class="TableTopRed"><td>Rank</td><td>Player Name</td><td>Opponent</td><td>Notes</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>1</td><td>Drew Brees</td><td>vs. KC</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>2</td><td>Cam Newton</td><td>vs. NYG</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>3</td><td>Tom Brady</td><td>at BAL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>4</td><td>Matthew Stafford</td><td>at TEN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>5</td><td>Aaron Rodgers</td><td>at SEA</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>6</td><td>Robert Griffin III</td><td>vs. CIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>7</td><td>Matt Ryan</td><td>at SD</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>8</td><td>Tony Romo</td><td>vs. TB</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>9</td><td>Michael Vick</td><td>at ARZ</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>10</td><td>Eli Manning</td><td>at CAR</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>11</td><td>Philip Rivers</td><td>vs. ATL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>12</td><td>Joe Flacco</td><td>vs. NE</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>13</td><td>Andrew Luck</td><td>vs. JAC</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>14</td><td>Ben Roethlisberger</td><td>at OAK</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>15</td><td>Peyton Manning</td><td>vs. HOU</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>16</td><td>Jay Cutler</td><td>vs. STL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>17</td><td>Matt Cassel</td><td>at NO</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>18</td><td>Matt Schaub</td><td>at DEN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>19</td><td>Josh Freeman</td><td>at DAL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>20</td><td>Jake Locker</td><td>vs. DET</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>21</td><td>Ryan Fitzpatrick</td><td>at CLE</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>22</td><td>Alex Smith</td><td>at MIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>23</td><td>Carson Palmer</td><td>vs. PIT</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>24</td><td>Russell Wilson</td><td>vs. GB</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>25</td><td>Andy Dalton</td><td>at WAS</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>26</td><td>Sam Bradford</td><td>at CHI</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>27</td><td>Christian Ponder</td><td>vs. SF</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>28</td><td>Ryan Tannehill</td><td>vs. NYJ</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>29</td><td>Kevin Kolb</td><td>vs. PHI</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>30</td><td>Brandon Weeden</td><td>vs. BUF</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>31</td><td>Mark Sanchez</td><td>at MIA</td><td>Probable(back)</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>32</td><td>Blaine Gabbert</td><td>at IND</td><td>Probable(hamstring)</td></tr></tbody></table>

QB Notes: Brees isn’t getting quality pass protection through two weeks, but there’s shootout potential in Kansas City versus a defense that has bent over backwards for the Falcons and Bills. … Keep an eye on Newton and the read-option Thursday night. The Panthers had over 130 rushing yards out of the option by halftime of last week’s game. … The Packers haven’t been the same on offense since Christmas night, with Rodgers struggling to move the ball consistently in four of their past five games. Playing in Seattle against one of the NFL’s fastest and most most physical defenses is no picnic.

As we told you last week, RGIII is for real. He has the highest completion percentage in NFL history among players with 50+ career pass attempts, is excelling versus the blitz and completing a ridiculous 79 percent of his play-action pass attempts at 15.5 yards per. Baylor’s offense should continue to get it done for fantasy leaguers against a Bengals pass defense already shredded by Joe Flacco and Brandon Weeden.

The Eagles have been a sloppy, turnover-happy mess at times, but they marched up and down the field consistently against a traditionally stingy Ravens defense. Vick was sharp in Week 2, but he faces Calais Campbell and Patrick Peterson -- two of the best defensive players in the league last week -- in Arizona. Some people will tell you Peterson isn’t yet a great cover corner. Those people are wrong.

Rivers isn’t holding the ball for long stretches like he did when he struggled at mid-season a year ago. It’s a good sign for his 2012 value. … Flacco made some beautiful throws versus the Eagles, but his accuracy went in the tank in the second half when he started habitually throwing off his back foot -- pressured or not. … Luck may not wow you with spectacular plays like Griffin does, but he excelled out of the shotgun on 77.1 percent of his snaps versus the Vikings.

Peyton faces the league’s toughest pass defense, led by J.J. Swat and legit lock-down corner Johnathan Joseph. … Struggling to nail down timing with his receivers, Palmer has been the picture of inefficiency so far. … Locker was downright brutal versus the Chargers, and his receivers aren’t helping. … Bradford, on the other hand, has been a changed man early in the season, showing a rifle arm and converting big third-down plays.

Ponder is not only leading the NFL in completion percentage, but his 75 percent mark is the third-highest after two games since 1960. Failing to threaten defenses vertically, though, he sorely misses Jerome Simpson. … Don’t get carried away with Weeden’s 300-yard game. While he did play with much more confidence and stood in against the blitz, the Bengals defense has been a hot mess.



<!--RW-->Week 3 Running Backs



<table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr class="TableTopRed"><td>Rank</td><td>Player Name</td><td>Opponent</td><td>Notes</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>1</td><td>Arian Foster</td><td>at DEN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>2</td><td>C.J. Spiller</td><td>at CLE</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>3</td><td>LeSean McCoy</td><td>at ARZ</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>4</td><td>Ray Rice</td><td>vs. NE</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>5</td><td>Maurice Jones-Drew</td><td>at IND</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>6</td><td>DeMarco Murray</td><td>vs. TB</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>7</td><td>Doug Martin</td><td>at DAL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>8</td><td>Ryan Mathews</td><td>vs. ATL</td><td>Fully expected to play</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>9</td><td>Michael Bush</td><td>vs. STL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>10</td><td>Marshawn Lynch</td><td>vs. GB</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>11</td><td>Trent Richardson</td><td>vs. BUF</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>12</td><td>Reggie Bush</td><td>vs. NYJ</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>13</td><td>Stevan Ridley</td><td>at BAL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>14</td><td>Alfred Morris</td><td>vs. CIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>15</td><td>Darren McFadden</td><td>vs. PIT</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>16</td><td>Adrian Peterson</td><td>vs. SF</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>17</td><td>Jamaal Charles</td><td>at NO</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>18</td><td>Darren Sproles</td><td>vs. KC</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>19</td><td>Frank Gore</td><td>at MIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>20</td><td>DeAngelo Williams</td><td>vs. NYG</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>21</td><td>Steven Jackson</td><td>at CHI</td><td>Likely will play</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>22</td><td>Chris Johnson</td><td>vs. DET</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>23</td><td>BenJarvus Green-Ellis</td><td>at WAS</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>24</td><td>Andre Brown</td><td>at CAR</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>25</td><td>Willis McGahee</td><td>vs. HOU</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>26</td><td>Donald Brown</td><td>vs. JAC</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>27</td><td>Cedric Benson</td><td>at SEA</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>28</td><td>Shonn Greene</td><td>at MIA</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>29</td><td>Pierre Thomas</td><td>vs. KC</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>30</td><td>Peyton Hillis</td><td>at NO</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>31</td><td>Michael Turner</td><td>at SD</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>32</td><td>Kevin Smith</td><td>at TEN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>33</td><td>Beanie Wells</td><td>vs. PHI</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>34</td><td>Jonathan Dwyer</td><td>at OAK</td><td>Probable(foot)</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>35</td><td>Mark Ingram</td><td>vs. KC</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>36</td><td>David Wilson</td><td>at CAR</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>37</td><td>Isaac Redman</td><td>at OAK</td><td>Probable(ankle)</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>38</td><td>Jacquizz Rodgers</td><td>at SD</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>39</td><td>Ben Tate</td><td>at DEN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>40</td><td>Ryan Williams</td><td>vs. PHI</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>41</td><td>Mikel Leshoure</td><td>at TEN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>42</td><td>Felix Jones</td><td>vs. TB</td><td>Probable(ribs)</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>43</td><td>Kendall Hunter</td><td>at MIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>44</td><td>Bilal Powell</td><td>at MIA</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>45</td><td>Daryl Richardson</td><td>at CHI</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>46</td><td>Knowshon Moreno</td><td>vs. HOU</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>47</td><td>Tashard Choice</td><td>at CLE</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>48</td><td>Vick Ballard</td><td>vs. JAC</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>49</td><td>Lamar Miller</td><td>vs. NYJ</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>50</td><td>Evan Royster</td><td>vs. CIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>51</td><td>Danny Woodhead</td><td>at BAL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>52</td><td>Mike Tolbert</td><td>vs. NYG</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>53</td><td>Bernard Scott</td><td>at WAS</td><td>Probable(hand)</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>54</td><td>Chris Ogbonnaya</td><td>vs. BUF</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>55</td><td>Roy Helu</td><td>vs. CIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>56</td><td>Rashad Jennings</td><td>at IND</td><td>Questionable(knee)</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>57</td><td>Toby Gerhart</td><td>vs. SF</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>58</td><td>Javon Ringer</td><td>vs. DET</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>59</td><td>Bernard Pierce</td><td>vs. NE</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>60</td><td>Marcel Reece</td><td>vs. PIT</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>61</td><td>Mike Goodson</td><td>vs. PIT</td><td>-</td></tr></tbody></table>

RB Notes: While the Raiders and Titans fail to get their backs in space, Bills coach Chan Gailey is a master of creating room for his runners to operate. It starts with Gailey’s spread offense, which was bolstered by a dizzying array of draws, reverses, fake reverses and Wildcat looks in Week 2. It certain helps that Spiller has that instant second gear and freakish lateral agility that CJ2K once flashed on a regular basis. Reggie Bush is the only NFL back with more total rushing yards than Spiller’s 211 yards after contact through two weeks.

Can we expect Spiller to keep the job once Fred Jackson returns in 3-4 weeks? Spiller is averaging 153.8 scrimmage yards and over a touchdown per game going back to Week 15 of last season. He’s gaining an eye-popping 10.7 yards every time he touches the ball this season. Keep in mind, however, that F-Jax topped 100 yards in 8-of-9 games as a top-three fantasy back before his mid-season injury a year ago. Jackson is also a highly respected team leader and coaching staff favorite. Spiller’s hot start will earn him a significant role the rest of the way, but I wouldn’t expect Jackson to fade away.

Speaking of Bush, how would you like a three-down back with goal-line duties coming off 100 rushing yards in five of his past six games while averaging 149.3 scrimmage yards over that span? Concerns about Joe Philbin and Mike Sherman veering from Tony Sparano’s plan to use Bush as an every-down back appear to be unfounded. “The durability is what amazes me,” Sherman told the Palm Beach Post on Monday. “He’s out there today like he didn’t even play a game yesterday.” Look for more of that same heavy workload going forward.

One small note on Rice: Running backs are averaging just 1.9 yards per on 40 carries versus the Patriots this year. … Martin invites comparisons to Rice based on body type, skill-set and history with coach Greg Schiano, but he doesn’t have Rice’s acceleration. … I wouldn’t hesitate to use Mathews in his first week back. He was physically prepared to play a week ago; the Bolts just opted to hold him out one more week to get him mentally ready. Arian Foster’s 13 red-zone carries lead the NFL. Curtis Brinkley and Jackie Battle of the Chargers have combined for 17 such totes.

What a difference a week makes. Richardson offered no burst and saw no running lanes versus the Eagles. That all changed in Cincinnati, where Richardson exploded through holes and looked even better after the catch. Don’t be overly concerned with Chris Ogbonnaya’s six receptions. Richardson was in the game on passing downs than Obie and offers much more after-catch ability.

Charles is practicing fully this week after leaving the Bills’ blowout late in the third quarter with a knee bruise. If the owner in your league is in panic mode, take full advantage. He has an excellent matchup this week versus a Saints defense that has been bowled over on the ground. … David Wilson operated as the change-of-pace back to Ahmad Bradshaw early in the game and Andre Brown in the second half. He’s not trusted as more than a package-play back. Expect Brown to see 15-20 touches Thursday night. … As Adam Levitan would say, S-Jax is 29, has a soft tissue strain and plays the running back position. It’s not a good mix.

Benson and Greene can be benched against the forbidding run defenses of the Seahawks and Dolphins. … Although Dwayne Bowe was the Week 2 garbage-time king, Hillis also padded his yards per carry rate. He looks like he’s running in quick sand, stutter-stepping too much. … If your local NCAA apologist tells you the NFL is an inferior product because the players “don’t give enough effort,” point him toward Pierre Thomas’ Week 2 tackler-carrying bonanza versus the Panthers.

Rotoworld’s Chet Gresham described Michael Turner this week as a “fat pug trying to roll uphill.” Needless to say, it’s an apt (and vivid) comparison. Turner is done; the sooner the Falcons realize it, the better for their offense. … Kevin Smith took the majority of the first-team reps in Wednesday’s practice, but Leshoure wasn’t far behind. I would expect a fairly even split versus the Titans.


<!--RW-->Week 3 Wide Receivers



<table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr class="TableTopRed"><td>Rank</td><td>Player Name</td><td>Opponent</td><td>Notes</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>1</td><td>Calvin Johnson</td><td>at TEN</td><td>Probable(foot)</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>2</td><td>Julio Jones</td><td>at SD</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>3</td><td>Andre Johnson</td><td>at DEN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>4</td><td>Victor Cruz</td><td>at CAR</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>5</td><td>A.J. Green</td><td>at WAS</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>6</td><td>Brandon Marshall</td><td>vs. STL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>7</td><td>Steve Smith</td><td>vs. NYG</td><td>Probable(knee)</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>8</td><td>Percy Harvin</td><td>vs. SF</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>9</td><td>Dwayne Bowe</td><td>at NO</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>10</td><td>Larry Fitzgerald</td><td>vs. PHI</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>11</td><td>Jordy Nelson</td><td>at SEA</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>12</td><td>Reggie Wayne</td><td>vs. JAC</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>13</td><td>Roddy White</td><td>at SD</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>14</td><td>Dez Bryant</td><td>vs. TB</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>15</td><td>Miles Austin</td><td>vs. TB</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>16</td><td>Greg Jennings</td><td>at SEA</td><td>Held out Thursday, now looking doubtful</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>17</td><td>Marques Colston</td><td>vs. KC</td><td>Probable(foot)</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>18</td><td>Vincent Jackson</td><td>at DAL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>19</td><td>Brandon Lloyd</td><td>at BAL</td><td>Probable(thigh)</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>20</td><td>Pierre Garcon</td><td>vs. CIN</td><td>Questionable(foot)</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>21</td><td>Mike Wallace</td><td>at OAK</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>22</td><td>Wes Welker</td><td>at BAL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>23</td><td>Demaryius Thomas</td><td>vs. HOU</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>24</td><td>Stevie Johnson</td><td>at CLE</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>25</td><td>Eric Decker</td><td>vs. HOU</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>26</td><td>DeSean Jackson</td><td>at ARZ</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>27</td><td>Malcom Floyd</td><td>vs. ATL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>28</td><td>Torrey Smith</td><td>vs. NE</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>29</td><td>Antonio Brown</td><td>at OAK</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>30</td><td>Danny Amendola</td><td>at CHI</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>31</td><td>Michael Crabtree</td><td>at MIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>32</td><td>Brandon LaFell</td><td>vs. NYG</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>33</td><td>Lance Moore</td><td>vs. KC</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>34</td><td>Denarius Moore</td><td>vs. PIT</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>35</td><td>Sidney Rice</td><td>vs. GB</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>36</td><td>Kenny Britt</td><td>vs. DET</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>37</td><td>Jeremy Maclin</td><td>at ARZ</td><td>Mort: Likely will not play</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>38</td><td>Santonio Holmes</td><td>at MIA</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>39</td><td>Randall Cobb</td><td>at SEA</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>40</td><td>Nate Washington</td><td>vs. DET</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>41</td><td>Greg Little</td><td>vs. BUF</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>42</td><td>Anquan Boldin</td><td>vs. NE</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>43</td><td>Ramses Barden</td><td>at CAR</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>44</td><td>Robert Meachem</td><td>vs. ATL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>45</td><td>Nate Burleson</td><td>at TEN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>46</td><td>Darrius Heyward-Bey</td><td>vs. PIT</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>47</td><td>Mike Williams</td><td>at DAL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>48</td><td>Austin Collie</td><td>vs. JAC</td><td>Full practice on Wednesday</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>49</td><td>Brian Hartline</td><td>vs. NYJ</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>50</td><td>Justin Blackmon</td><td>at IND</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>51</td><td>Donnie Avery</td><td>vs. JAC</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>52</td><td>Laurent Robinson</td><td>at IND</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>53</td><td>Kendall Wright</td><td>vs. DET</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>54</td><td>Alshon Jeffery</td><td>vs. STL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>55</td><td>Dexter McCluster</td><td>at NO</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>56</td><td>Titus Young</td><td>at TEN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>57</td><td>James Jones</td><td>at SEA</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>58</td><td>Mohamed Massaquoi</td><td>vs. BUF</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>59</td><td>Michael Jenkins</td><td>vs. SF</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>60</td><td>Donald Jones</td><td>at CLE</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>61</td><td>Jason Avant</td><td>at ARZ</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>62</td><td>Kevin Ogletree</td><td>vs. TB</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>63</td><td>Andre Roberts</td><td>vs. PHI</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>64</td><td>Davone Bess</td><td>vs. NYJ</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>65</td><td>Rueben Randle</td><td>at CAR</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>66</td><td>Leonard Hankerson</td><td>vs. CIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>67</td><td>Aldrick Robinson</td><td>vs. CIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>68</td><td>Stephen Hill</td><td>at MIA</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>69</td><td>Andrew Hawkins</td><td>at WAS</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>70</td><td>Armon Binns</td><td>at WAS</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>71</td><td>Julian Edelman</td><td>at BAL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>72</td><td>Golden Tate</td><td>vs. GB</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>73</td><td>Mario Manningham</td><td>at MIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>74</td><td>Damaris Johnson</td><td>at ARZ</td><td>-</td></tr></tbody></table>

WR Notes: Megatron has averaged 162.7 yards in his past six games. … As they do annually, too many fantasy owners are overreacting to the season’s first two weeks. Jump all over Julio Jones if your league’s owner is nervous. … Cruz lead the NFL in targets (26). He has 11+ targets in each of the first two games after seeing 11 or more in just three games a year ago. There’s a good chance he will make three in a row with Hakeem Nicks out.

Even at age 33, it’s no surprise that Steve Smith lead the NFL with 101 yards on deep passes. What may be a surprise, however, is that LaFell is third with 90 yards. That tells us a lot about Cam Newton, poised to exploit a shaky Giants secondary Thursday night. … Slipping and breaking tackles with equal aplumb, Harvin has been the most impressive skill-position player I’ve seen through two weeks.

The sky isn’t falling on Dez Bryant. The Seahawks physical corners knocked him off his routes early, and Tony Romo prides himself on getting rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less. Look for a bounceback game against Aqib Talib, who was abused by Nicks in Week 2. … It was obvious a week ago that Josh Freeman trusts Vincent Jackson to beat his man at the point of the catch. It’s a tough matchup this week versus the Cowboys corners, but V-Jax remains a good bet for WR2 production.

I agree with Levitan that Lloyd is on the verge of a breakout game. He’s been heavily targeted, has come close to a few big plays downfield and won’t have Patrick Peterson hounding him this week. … Garcon is already doing more in practice this week than last. It looks like he has a better chance than Maclin of suiting up for Week 3. … Demaryius Thomas has a tough matchup with Johnathan Joseph in coverage. … DeSean Jackson is playing better than he has in a couple of years, even making tough catches in heavy traffic.

Sidney Rice has another tough matchup against a defense that shut down Brandon Marshall, but it’s worth noting that he’s leading all receivers in red-zone targets. … Britt’s snapcount is expected to increase this week. He’s a shaky WR3 option until we see him produce on those surgically-repaired knee. Teammate Washington is leading the NFL in drop rate.

Barden played 47 snaps to Randle’s three in Week 2. We can expect Barden to take on a bigger role with Nicks out, but he’s a been disappointment thus far in his career. … Collie practiced fully on Wednesday. Any time he suits up, he’s a better fantasy option than Avery.

Blackmon has had trouble separating from coverage. I suspect it’s part route-running and part Blaine Gabbert. I would hold onto him as a roster stash in 12-team leagues. … The slippery Hawkins isn’t trustworthy yet as a WR3 in PPR formats, but he’s a player to watch as the league-leader in yards after the catch.


<!--RW-->Week 3 Tight Ends



<table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr class="TableTopRed"><td>Rank</td><td>Player Name</td><td>Opponent</td><td>Notes</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>1</td><td>Jimmy Graham</td><td>vs. KC</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>2</td><td>Rob Gronkowski</td><td>at BAL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>3</td><td>Antonio Gates</td><td>vs. ATL</td><td>Likely will play</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>4</td><td>Vernon Davis</td><td>at MIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>5</td><td>Brent Celek</td><td>at ARZ</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>6</td><td>Brandon Pettigrew</td><td>at TEN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>7</td><td>Tony Gonzalez</td><td>at SD</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>8</td><td>Martellus Bennett</td><td>at CAR</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>9</td><td>Dennis Pitta</td><td>vs. NE</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>10</td><td>Jermichael Finley</td><td>at SEA</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>11</td><td>Jason Witten</td><td>vs. TB</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>12</td><td>Owen Daniels</td><td>at DEN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>13</td><td>Jared Cook</td><td>vs. DET</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>14</td><td>Kyle Rudolph</td><td>vs. SF</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>15</td><td>Greg Olsen</td><td>vs. NYG</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>16</td><td>Jermaine Gresham</td><td>at WAS</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>17</td><td>Fred Davis</td><td>vs. CIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>18</td><td>Coby Fleener</td><td>vs. JAC</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>19</td><td>Jacob Tamme</td><td>vs. HOU</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>20</td><td>Scott Chandler</td><td>at CLE</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>21</td><td>Heath Miller</td><td>at OAK</td><td>Probable(ribs)</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>22</td><td>Dustin Keller</td><td>at MIA</td><td>Probable(hamstring)</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>23</td><td>Joel Dreessen</td><td>vs. HOU</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>24</td><td>Anthony Fasano</td><td>vs. NYJ</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>25</td><td>Dallas Clark</td><td>at DAL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>26</td><td>Marcedes Lewis</td><td>at IND</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>27</td><td>Brandon Myers</td><td>vs. PIT</td><td>-</td></tr></tbody></table>

TE Notes: Gronk should see more consistent targets now that Aaron Hernandez is out of the picture for a month. … Gates looked good in Wednesday’s practice and appears safe to pencil in lineups at mid-week. … Every time I looked up in the Eagles-Ravens game, Celek had shaken free from coverage to give Michael Vick a clear target on intermediate routes. An underappreciated athlete after the catch, Celek is also leading all tight ends in Yards Per Route Run at 3.22, up from 1.9 as fantasy’s No. 5 tight end in 2011. Don’t forget, Celek’s uptick in production down the stretch coincided with Jeremy Maclin’s spate of injuries.

Pettigrew’s matchup couldn’t be better this week. The Titans surrendered five receiving scores through two weeks, all to tight ends. … Anecdotal evidence suggests Eli Manning loves to throw to his tight ends in the end zone. Statistical evidence supports the notion as well. Matchups guru Evan Silva believes the big, athletic Bennett is a good bet for double-digit scores this season.

Pitta led all tight ends in targets the first two weeks and officially bypassed Ed Dickson on the Ravens’ depth chart on Wednesday. He’s earned confidence as a TE1 play. … Tamme’s snap count is an issue, as we suspected it would be. He’s no lock to outproduce Dreessen on a week-in, week-out basis. … Chandler could have had another 20+ yards last week, but Ryan Fitzpatrick missed him wide open.


Week 3 Defense/Special Teams



<table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr class="TableTopRed"><td>Rank</td><td>Player Name</td><td>Opponent</td><td>Notes</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>1</td><td>Fortyniners Def/Spec Team</td><td>at MIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>2</td><td>Jets Def/Spec Team</td><td>at MIA</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>3</td><td>Eagles Def/Spec Team</td><td>at ARZ</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>4</td><td>Steelers Def/Spec Team</td><td>at OAK</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>5</td><td>Texans Def/Spec Team</td><td>at DEN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>6</td><td>Bears Def/Spec Team</td><td>vs. STL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>7</td><td>Packers Def/Spec Team</td><td>at SEA</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>8</td><td>Lions Def/Spec Team</td><td>at TEN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>9</td><td>Ravens Def/Spec Team</td><td>vs. NE</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>10</td><td>Broncos Def/Spec Team</td><td>vs. HOU</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>11</td><td>Cardinals Def/Spec Team</td><td>vs. PHI</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>12</td><td>Seahawks Def/Spec Team</td><td>vs. GB</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>13</td><td>Patriots Def/Spec Team</td><td>at BAL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>14</td><td>Giants Def/Spec Team</td><td>at CAR</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>15</td><td>Bengals Def/Spec Team</td><td>at WAS</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>16</td><td>Cowboys Def/Spec Team</td><td>vs. TB</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>17</td><td>Bills Def/Spec Team</td><td>at CLE</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>18</td><td>Redskins Def/Spec Team</td><td>vs. CIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>19</td><td>Saints Def/Spec Team</td><td>vs. KC</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>20</td><td>Falcons Def/Spec Team</td><td>at SD</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>21</td><td>Titans Def/Spec Team</td><td>vs. DET</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>22</td><td>Raiders Def/Spec Team</td><td>vs. PIT</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>23</td><td>Browns Def/Spec Team</td><td>vs. BUF</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>24</td><td>Rams Def/Spec Team</td><td>at CHI</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>25</td><td>Chargers Def/Spec Team</td><td>vs. ATL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>26</td><td>Dolphins Def/Spec Team</td><td>vs. NYJ</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>27</td><td>Vikings Def/Spec Team</td><td>vs. SF</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>28</td><td>Chiefs Def/Spec Team</td><td>at NO</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>29</td><td>Buccaneers Def/Spec Team</td><td>at DAL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>30</td><td>Panthers Def/Spec Team</td><td>vs. NYG</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>31</td><td>Colts Def/Spec Team</td><td>vs. JAC</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>32</td><td>Jaguars Def/Spec Team</td><td>at IND</td><td>-</td></tr></tbody></table>


Week 3 Kickers



<table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr class="TableTopRed"><td>Rank</td><td>Player Name</td><td>Opponent</td><td>Notes</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>1</td><td>David Akers</td><td>at MIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>2</td><td>Garrett Hartley</td><td>vs. KC</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>3</td><td>Matt Bryant</td><td>at SD</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>4</td><td>Stephen Gostkowski</td><td>at BAL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>5</td><td>Robbie Gould</td><td>vs. STL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>6</td><td>Mason Crosby</td><td>at SEA</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>7</td><td>Alex Henery</td><td>at ARZ</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>8</td><td>Nate Kaeding</td><td>vs. ATL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>9</td><td>Dan Bailey</td><td>vs. TB</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>10</td><td>Justin Tucker</td><td>vs. NE</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>11</td><td>Sebastian Janikowski</td><td>vs. PIT</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>12</td><td>Matt Prater</td><td>vs. HOU</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>13</td><td>Shayne Graham</td><td>at DEN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>14</td><td>Billy Cundiff</td><td>vs. CIN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>15</td><td>Jason Hanson</td><td>at TEN</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>16</td><td>Adam Vinatieri</td><td>vs. JAC</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>17</td><td>Rob Bironas</td><td>vs. DET</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>18</td><td>Lawrence Tynes</td><td>at CAR</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>19</td><td>Justin Medlock</td><td>vs. NYG</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>20</td><td>Ryan Succop</td><td>at NO</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>21</td><td>Steven Hauschka</td><td>vs. GB</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>22</td><td>Greg Zuerlein</td><td>at CHI</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>23</td><td>Connor Barth</td><td>at DAL</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>24</td><td>Shaun Suisham</td><td>at OAK</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>25</td><td>Blair Walsh</td><td>vs. SF</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>26</td><td>Nick Folk</td><td>at MIA</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>27</td><td>Rian Lindell</td><td>at CLE</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>28</td><td>Josh Scobee</td><td>at IND</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>29</td><td>Dan Carpenter</td><td>vs. NYJ</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>30</td><td>Mike Nugent</td><td>at WAS</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW2"><td>31</td><td>Jay Feely</td><td>vs. PHI</td><td>-</td></tr><tr class="TABLEALTROW1"><td>32</td><td>Phil Dawson</td><td>vs. BUF</td><td>-</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[HacheMan]

Thursday Matchup: NYG @ CAR
Thursday Night Football

NY Giants @ Carolina

The Giants' offense took off in Sunday's 41-34 shootout win over Tampa. Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Martellus Bennett, and Andre Brown all set career highs of some sort in the kind of game that can foreshadow an offensive tear. Vegas put a 49.5-point over-under on Giants-Panthers, the second highest Week 3 projection behind only Chiefs-Saints. If you've got a stud available Thursday night -- on either team -- don't think twice. Start 'em. ... I watched the Giants-Bucs tape and didn't come away thrilled with Brown. He's a workmanlike runner, trusted in blitz pickup and able to gain yardage blocked open by his line. I think he flashed quick feet, but did not make people miss and has average burst. But Brown was clearly the feature runner after Ahmad Bradshaw (neck) went down and figures to operate as a three-down player against a Panthers team opposing running backs have touched up for 280 yards on 54 carries (5.16 YPC) through two games. Carolina gave up two rushing TDs last week. Heavy playing time against a weak run defense can certainly be a recipe for fantasy success. Brown is a worthwhile flex play. ... David Wilson was the change-of-pace back when Bradshaw was healthy, and remained the C.O.P. back behind Brown when Bradshaw went down. Wilson is a far more gifted runner than Brown, but remains error prone and is not trusted by the coaches. Wilson had a brutal first-quarter drop over the middle against Tampa. Despite the Bradshaw injury, Wilson played just six snaps. There are brighter days ahead for Wilson, but the first-round rookie is not a fantasy option in this game.

Giants third receiver Domenik Hixon was concussed early in Week 2 and Bennett's role increased immediately. It jumped off the tape how often Eli looked to and targeted Bennett in the red zone, not even including his 33-yard fourth-quarter score. Looking back, I wish I had placed Bennett higher in my preseason fantasy rankings. I think he's going to score ten touchdowns and hold his own in receptions and yards. He's an every-week starter and should be locked into lineups in this possible shootout. With both Nicks (foot) and Hixon ruled out, I feel bullish about Bennett's Week 3 fantasy prospects. I'd play him over any tight end not named Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, or Vernon Davis. ... Cruz worked over Eric Wright, Ronde Barber, and Brandon McDonald for 179 yards and a touchdown on 11 catches in Week 2, seeing a game-high 17 targets. Cruz leads the entire league in targets through two games and is set up for another active night. Look for Cruz to square off with LCB Chris Gamble and slot CB Captain Munnerlyn for the majority of Thursday night's snaps. Ramses Barden and rookie Rueben Randle figure to rotate at Nicks' "X" receiver spot, and neither is on the Week 3 radar as a fantasy starter. ... Vegas actually dropped its over-under by a point and a half after news broke of Nicks' inactivity. I still think Manning is a solid back-end QB1, as usual. New York projects to have passing success in this favorable matchup.

After a sluggish opener, the Panthers experienced an offensive explosion of their own against the slump-busting Saints defense in Week 2. Carolina obliterated New Orleans with read-option run plays, keeping its opponent off balance via deception and misdirection. Cam Newton's rushing stats are supplemented by playcaller Rob Chudzinski's commitment to the college-style running game concepts, and he's also got a favorable Thursday night pass-defense matchup. Through two weeks, the Giants have generated an underwhelming four sacks while allowing Tony Romo and Josh Freeman to combine for 550 yards and a 5:3 TD-to-INT ratio on 37-of-57 passing (64.9 percent). The game tapes and New York's 9.65 YPA allowed both suggest Perry Fewell's defense is susceptible to shot plays downfield. Chudzinski, Newton, and Steve Smith butter their bread with vertical strikes. ... The Giants often employ alleged top cornerback Corey Webster in shadow coverage of opposing No. 1 wide receivers. It's not working out so well. Per Pro Football Focus, offenses are averaging 15.5 yards every time they aim passes Webster's way so far this season. Smith opened the year with back-to-back 100-yard games and should stay hot on Thursday night.

Greg Olsen's Week 1 usage as primarily a pass catcher and slot tight end seemed to bode well, but he was reduced to an in-line blocker against the Saints. For his part, Olsen blocked his tail off in the victory. I'm concerned that his week-to-week receiving usage will depend on Chud's week-to-week game plans. Olsen could easily get stuck on the line helping RT Byron Bell block Justin Tuck. I'd start Bennett, Dennis Pitta, and Kyle Rudolph over Olsen in Week 3. ... Brandon LaFell is worth a long WR3 look after totaling 115 yards against New Orleans, 90 on six receptions and 25 on a Statue of Liberty-type run play. LaFell quietly has 310 yards and two touchdowns in his last four games. If Smith draws Webster, LaFell will see a lot of Michael Coe, Justin Tryon, rookie Jayron Hosley, and perhaps hobbled Prince Amukamara in coverage. ... Jonathan Stewart (ankle) is not expected to play on Thursday night. We'd all feel a lot better about DeAngelo Williams' fantasy start-ability, of course, if he had capitalized on his Week 1 opportunity to be Carolina's feature back with Stewart initially on the mend. Williams didn't, and looks like a complete roll of the dice. In the end, though, I'd really struggle to bench Williams when he seems like a lock for 16-22 touches in a potentially high-scoring affair. The Giants' run defense has been hit or miss.

Score Prediction: Panthers 31, Giants 28

 

[HacheMan]

Make a choice you can live with

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

Michele SteeleFantasy Focus: Week 3 Love/Hate
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Before I came to ESPN I was a reasonably successful screenwriter for film. And before I was a reasonably successful screenwriter for film, I was a consistently working sitcom writer. And before I was a consistently working sitcom writer, I was just a writer with a few credits and a member of the Writer's Guild of America. It was through that I got to go see Phil Rosenthal speak.

You may not recognize the name, but you've definitely seen his work, as Phil is the creator and executive producer of "Everybody Loves Raymond," only one of the most successful sitcoms of all time. It was early during "Raymond's" run that I went to hear him speak -- this is many years ago -- and he told a story that has stuck with me to this day.


It's long, so I'm paraphrasing here, but if you'd like the full story, he tells it in his book "You're Lucky You're Funny: How Life Becomes a Sitcom." Good book and very funny. You'll enjoy. And if you don't care for my long intros, skip down to RG3 below to get started on the loves and hates. Or, conversely, if you don't care for my advice, stop reading when you hit RG3.


So young Phil gets his script for "Raymond" picked up to pilot (meaning they are going to shoot one sample episode) and if it goes well, it will get on the air. It's a huge opportunity. Getting a show picked up to air versus just getting a pilot shot can potentially mean many millions of dollars, and it puts your career in a whole different stratosphere. Many very talented writers work for years and never get a pilot picked up.


Just so you understand, the stakes are very, very large here.


So Phil gets a call from the network.


Network Guy: Who are you casting for the wife?
Phil: Honestly, I'm looking now. I'm looking all over the place.
Network Guy: Well, Les Moonves wants this one actress (Phil calls her "so-and-so"). You should cast her.
Phil: Oh, but I think she's completely wrong.
Network Guy: You didn't hear me. Les wants her. If you don't cast her, you don't have a show.


In case you don't know who Les Moonves is, just know he is very, very powerful among television executives. He runs CBS and everything that falls under CBS. I'm fairly certain he can legally have people killed. He's that powerful.


Anyways, Phil calls his agent to complain about So-and-so, a well-known actress.


Phil: She's totally, completely wrong for the show and will ruin the whole thing. What do I do?
Agent: I would cast her.


They go back and forth, but the agent makes the same point as Network Guy. "If you don't take her, you don't have a show."


Phil is fretting but the agent suggests he at least meet So-and-so. Phil agrees to do that.


So he meets her one morning. Later that same afternoon is an audition for the current three finalists (they haven't found Patricia Heaton yet) for the role of Raymond's wife. All the CBS execs, including Les, will be there as each actress comes in, separately, and reads for the part.


And Phil is told that after the three women audition, what was going to happen was this: Les Moonves would stand up and say "What about So-and-so?" And if Phil doesn't answer "I'm going to cast her," he's dead in the water.

From Phil's book:


"So I meet with So-and-so, and she's very nice. Lovely, pretty. And during the meeting I kind of talk her into reading. And she reads for me … and she's 10 times worse than I thought she would be for this part. So now I'm crying because this is the day I lose my show because I cannot do it. I cannot. We go to the CBS offices, I have a bowling ball in my stomach, my three actresses read, they leave and Les Moonves, right on cue, stands up and goes "What about So-and-so?"


Think about this moment. It is a moment anyone in television dreams of. You are there, with the network president, talking about your show. You are surrounded by your agent, all sorts of network executives and studio executives (who are the ones paying you and desperately want this show to go).
You have been told to say "I'm gonna cast her" or your show is dead. End of story. All your months and months of hard work and your future dreams down the tubes. Everyone is staring at you as the most powerful person in the business says directly to you … "What about So-and-so?"


Back to Phil's book:


"I say 'I love her. I think she's great. I've loved her in everything she's done. And I met with her today and she's beautiful and charming, and I fell in love with her. I wanted to marry her. But then she read for me, and I have to tell you, it's just not what I wrote. You know? I don't really buy them as a couple. Could she do it? … Maybe. But I also think, maybe, we could do better."


I wasn't there but I'll bet anything that there wasn't a sound in the room, except for maybe a gasp from a low-level studio executive. And as Phil waited there, having made the stand everyone told him not to, all eyes turned to Les Moonves.


Who then just shrugs. "It was just an idea."


I love that story. Love it. They didn't go with So-and-so, of course, and about a week later they find Patricia Heaton, who would win two Emmys for her portrayal of Debra Barone and the show would become a massive critical and financial hit.
Quick addendum to that story: Once the show got picked up there was talk about bringing in a "showrunner," someone more experienced to help Phil, since he had never "run" a show before (being the main creative force behind every decision). But Les ended up letting Phil do it himself, unheard of in those days, because "He liked how [Phil] handled that thing with So-and-so."


There are a lot of important lessons in that story, for both life and fantasy football. About waiting to hear something directly from the horse's mouth, as it were; about perception and reality; about communication. About making an informed decision as opposed to a kneejerk one; about how the agendas of others can affect what you are told; and about sometimes the way the message is delivered is just as important as the message itself.


But to me, the biggest lesson from that story is that Phil Rosenthal believed so strongly that this actress was wrong that he was willing to lose everything. He knew how important this moment was. He believed what he believed and he was willing to stick by those convictions, no matter what the consequences.

Fantasy owners should be more like Phil Rosenthal.


You see, Week 3 is crucial. Thanks to the great Mike Polikoff, who oversees our League Manager product, we don't have to just say Week 3 is critical. We have statistical proof based on ESPN standard leagues.


Teams that are 0-2 have made the playoffs 18.9 percent of the time.


And after week 3?


Teams that are 1-2 have made the playoffs 27.02 percent of the time. Teams that are 0-3 have made the playoffs just 9.3 percent of the time.

Nine percent or 27 percent? If you have started slow, winning this week increases your odds 200 percent. Something to play for, no?


If you are 1-1, your odds are 40.04 percent. They jump to 51.71 percent at 2-1 and again, are 27 percent at 1-2. Almost a 100 percent increase if you win this week.


And if you are 2-0, you're looking at 61.33 percent, which jumps to 75.85 percent if you make 3-0 and again, drops to 51.71 percent if you wind up 2-1. A 50 percent swing is nothing to sneeze at.


This is a crucial week. And the person that cares the most about your team is … you. So make pickups and trades and, most importantly, set your lineup with conviction. I have Larry Fitzgerald outside my top 20 this week. I'll give reasons below but you think that's crazy? Then start him. Don't let me or anyone else talk you out of it.


I can't tell you how many times I see it. A guy says to me … "I really want to start this guy but you and everyone else have this other guy ranked higher … Arghhh. I don't know what to do." Well, maybe this will help: I've done all the research, watched the games, talked to as many folks as I can. But I can't tell the future.


As my good friend Joe Bryant says, "It's an oblong ball made of leather. Weird stuff is gonna happen." Remember this as you set your lineup this week and in every future week: I really want you win.
But not as badly as you do.


Had Phil Rosenthal listened to his agent or any of the other executives, he probably would have cast So-and-so, the show would have been bad, it would have been cancelled and his agent and all the other executives would have gone about their lives in exactly the same way as it was at the moment Phil said "No, I'm not doing it."


But Phil? Phil's life is very, very different because he chose to not listen to anyone else, to control his own destiny, and say "This is what I believe and I'll live with the results, whatever they may be."


Read this article, listen to me and whoever else you read/watch/download and then make your own bold call. This week more than ever. Go with what you think. You'll be happier with the outcome, no matter what. You drafted these players. You believe in them or you do not. I'm out on Chris Johnson. I think the Wes Welker thing is real, but delayed by Aaron Hernandez. I'm buying Brandon LaFell and Dennis Pitta. But that's me.


This is whom I love and hate this week. But at the end of the day, eh … it's just an idea.



Quarterbacks I love

Robert Griffin III, Redskins: He's the highest-scoring player in fantasy through two weeks and just like last week, I am the highest among our fellow rankers on him. I knew about the accuracy, I knew about Mike Shanahan wanting to throw, I knew about the socks. The unexpected part is how many designed runs they are calling, including around the goal line. We always say that rushing touchdowns, especially among quarterbacks, are hard to predict as they fluctuate from year to year. Cam was the one exception because last year, he was their goal-line back, and certainly is a big part of their goal-line plans this year too. RG3 is built very differently, of course, but whether it was an audible by him (they run a version of Baylor's offense which requires him to make calls at the line of scrimmage; read this terrific Grantland piece for more detail) or if it was called initially; both rushing touchdowns Griffin had last week were designed runs. In fact, many of his designed runs were out of the shotgun, and because of his arm, you have to respect the deep ball, so you can't load up.


Oh, and he's playing the Bengals. Who just gave up 322 to Brandon Weeden. Who is not, with all due respect, Robert Griffin III.


Tony Romo, Cowboys: I have decided to be more worried about a Bucs defense that has given up over 800 yards passing in two games than I am about last week's stinker at Seattle. Home opener for Tony and everyone's healthy. Oh, and I actually think the Tampa Bay run defense is pretty good too, meaning passing, passing and more passing. I have Romo at five, higher than all of my counterparts.


Alex Smith, 49ers: I am beginning to regret my pick of Mr. Smith in the Grantland Bad Quarterback league. Because he's, uh, not a bad quarterback. Back-to-back weeks of over 200 yards, two scores and zero interceptions. Did you know Alex Smith is currently tied for eighth-most points among fantasy quarterbacks in ESPN standard scoring? If you need a mid-tier guy or are in a pretty deep league, Smith is solid.


Shout out to John Parolin and the team from ESPN Stats & Information who point out this (and many of the other stats used in this column): Smith has completed nearly 90 percent of his passes this season when targeting wide receivers, best in the NFL. In fact, not only does Smith have zero interceptions this season, he has also had only one pass broken up by a defender. The one disrupted pass accounts for 1.8 percent of his attempts, the lowest rate in the NFL. Against a Vikings team geared to stop the run, Smith is a very safe choice.


If you're desperate … Carson Palmer is second in the NFL in pass attempts so far, with 94 through two games. With Denarius Moore back and a belief they will be trailing by a lot in this game (just like the last two weeks), Palmer is gonna have to keep chucking it. … Remember how I said Alex Smith was tied for eighth among QBs in most fantasy points? One of the guys he's tied with is Matt Cassel, whose "fall way behind and put up junk-time stats" ways should continue against the Saints. … The Browns defense is better than folks give them credit for, but when they send five or more defenders (which they do seventh-most), they have a +3 TD-Int differential, tied for league worst. And Ryan Fitzpatrick is 15-of-22 for 141 yards and two touchdowns against five-plus rushers so far this season.



Quarterbacks I hate




Peyton Manning, Broncos: Full disclosure: He was a hate Week 1 and went off. He was a love last week and bombed. So you either think I'm always turned around on Peyton or I'm due. Here's why I think I'm right on Peyton this week: Houston's defense. And Houston's offense. "They made Ryan Tannehill and Blaine Gabbert look bad, you say? Big deal." And that's fair. But we saw Tannehill play much better against the Raiders, and the Texans did exactly what a great defense should do against bad quarterbacks: They dominated. It's also about the Texans offense, which I expect to run a lot (see below), slowing down the game and controlling the clock, keeping No. 18 on the sidelines.
Next Level tells us Peyton Manning is completing just half of his pass attempts inside the painted numbers this season after completing 71 percent of such throws from 2008 to 2010. I'm telling you I have him outside my top 12.


Matt Schaub, Texans: If I expect the Texans offense to run a lot, what does that mean, class? That I expect them to throw only a little. See? Easy peasy. OK, fine. You want a bit more meat? How's this? The Texans have the most run-heavy offense in the NFL, passing on only 45.7 percent of plays from scrimmage (not including penalties). In the red zone? Even worse. Their 21.4 pass percentage is lowest in the league, and no other team passes on less than a third of red zone plays.



Running backs I love




C.J. Spiller, Bills: A super-obvious name. I was highest on him last week and I am again this week. If you could only play two running backs and you somehow had Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy and C.J. Spiller, am I really saying you sit McCoy? Damn skippy.


Michael Bush, Bears: I don't believe Matt Forte will play in this game. I don't believe Kate Middleton had no idea paparazzi were around. I don't believe the Rams can stop the run; they've allowed 6.09 yards per rush inside the tackles this year, worst in the league. I don't believe I'm actually gonna wait in line Friday for … a phone. I've had my current one over three years. I'm desperate. I don't believe I used the phrase "Damn skippy" in a column. But mostly, I don't believe anything in this game disrupts this trend: When Michael Bush has had 25 or more attempts in a game (five times), he has averaged 136 yards a game and has scored six touchdowns.


Reggie Bush, Dolphins: Have gotten a lot of "Is Reggie Bush for real?" tweets and Facebook posts. And very simply … yes. Six straight games with 100 yards from scrimmage, longest streak in the NFL.
Andre Brown, Giants: Think he looked good last week. Think the Panthers run defense didn't. I know Ahmad Bradshaw isn't playing. Sometimes it's that simple. He's a low-end No. 2 this week.


Jamaal Charles, Chiefs: Many worried owners after last week, and rightfully so. But this is a total gut call. Think he has a nice game against the Saints (I mean, come on, they've given up five rushing touchdowns already), and for what it's worth, I own him in three leagues and am starting him in all three. And just tried to trade for him in a fourth. I believe.


If you're desperate … Mikel Leshoure is expected back for the Lions and according to our own Chris Mortensen, should get about 15 touches against the Titans' 30th-ranked run defense. … Jonathan Dwyer also has a nice matchup with Oakland. … You never know: Maybe they ease Ryan Mathews back a little and Jackie Battle gets a little work, or at least a goal-line carry.



Running backs I hate




Steven Jackson, Rams: Missed practice Wednesday, it's a poor matchup with Chicago, and the Rams offensive line is banged up. He has yet to crack 90 total yards this season or score and I'm not sure that changes against the Bears, who have had extra time to prep for this game. Add in the possibility that Daryl Richardson might take some carries away to help keep Jackson healthy and he's a flex play this week.


Cedric Benson, Packers: Seahawks run defense is legit. How legit? Too legit to quit, that's how legit. Inside the tackles, Seattle is allowing just 2.17 yards per rush, best in the NFL, and that includes a game against DeMarco Murray. Considering Cedric Benson has only three rushes for 8 yards outside the numbers this season, I have him outside my top 20.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: Insert running back playing the 49ers here. I have him as a low-end No. 2 this week.


Michael Turner, Falcons: Think the traffic trouble he got into was because he just wanted to see what it felt like to go fast again? Too soon? I have nothing against Turner the man, but as a fantasy football play, I keep putting him on this list and keep looking smart, gimme touchdowns notwithstanding. The Chargers have faced Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson and have the No. 1-ranked rush defense so far. No thanks.


Chris Johnson, Titans: First, the good news. It's not all his fault. Love this one that John Parolin dug up: Even though Johnson has only 21 yards rushing this year, he has 23 yards after contact. Hang on, let me add this up… yes, that means he has negative two yards BEFORE CONTACT. In other words, his average point of contact is behind the line of scrimmage. So hey … it's not all him! Now the bad news: He still has to play with that offensive line, and the Lions run defense is sixth-best in terms of fewest yards after contact allowed.



Wide receivers I love




Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant: Not worried. One bit. Calm down.


Miles Austin, Cowboys: The Buccaneers have allowed 210 receiving yards to slot receivers, most in the NFL. Miles Austin has 85 yards out of the slot in the first two games, ninth in the league, with an average target depth of 17.4 yards downfield on those throws (deepest among wide receivers with three slot targets).


Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs: Did you know that since 2010, only Rob Gronkowski and Calvin Johnson have more touchdown catches than Dwayne Bowe? OK, fine. Did you know that in the episode titled "Six Feet Under," Peter Boyle's character gives the same speech about mortality that he gave in "Taxi Driver"? Oh yeah, well did you know that I spent longer looking up "Raymond" trivia for this joke than I did some of the stats I've given? And do you know what the hell is wrong with me? No, seriously, I'm asking.


Pierre Garcon, Redskins: See Griffin III, Robert.


Brandon LaFell, Panthers: After seeing these two defenses, if I have a decent player on one of these teams, I'm doing it. LaFell is 11th in the NFL in total yards from scrimmage among wide receivers.


Danny Amendola, Rams: Was on the love list last week, so you know I believe. Rams will have to throw, Sam Bradford is locked in on Amendola as his No. 1, and while he won't have a game like he did last week, he's a solid flex or WR3 based on volume and the fact that St. Louis will be fairly one-dimensional in this game.


If you're desperate … I'm hanging tough on Randall Cobb, who can get outside the tackles on runs, unlike Cedric Benson. And they're gonna need to throw against the Seahawks. … Mike Williams was in this space last week so here he comes again; Fantasy Zombie. … I expect Ramses Barden to get more of the work vacated by Hakeem Nicks, but you'd have to be pretty desperate. … Randy Moss gets the Vikings this week. How bad do you think he wants to score?



Wide receivers I hate




Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals: I get it. One of the best in the NFL. But there are two concerns. One is Kevin Kolb. Kevin Kolb and Larry Fitzgerald have played together in 10 different games. Larry Fitzgerald has two touchdowns in that time. Two. And his last one from Kolb was Week 3 of last season. Second, Philly's defense is good. Really good. They lead the NFL in turnovers, opponent completion percentage and lowest yards per attempt for opponent. You think they know Kolb gets rattled when you put pressure on him? Yeah, me too. Fitzgerald has five receptions for 67 yards this year. That's not an average, that's his total. Given the lack of other offensive weapons they have, I expect the Eagles to do what they've been doing. Dating back to last year, over their past seven games, the Eagles have allowed seven passing touchdowns. Seven. In seven games. Larry will be great again, but not this week.


DeSean Jackson, Eagles: Speaking of this game and being legit, Patrick Peterson is all that and a "Raymond" boxed set. With Jeremy Maclin unlikely for this game (according to Chris Mortensen), I expect Peterson to be on Jackson most of the game. I have Jackson outside of my top 20, making him a flex play at best.


Andre Johnson, Texans: So you saw my note about Schaub and the how much running the Texans do, so you know where I'm going with this. But just so you get a full picture, at the start of Week 3, there are 59, count 'em, 59 players with more red zone targets than Andre Johnson's one. Including guys like Ronnie Brown, Clay Harbor, Anthony Fasano and Damian Williams. I know the talent is there but you can't tell me the production will be, especially against a solid Denver defense that just shut Julio Jones down. And the Texans don't have a Roddy White to pick up the slack. Which they don't care about. Because why, class? That's right. They run. Johnson is yet another big name I have outside my top 20, a flex play this week, nothing more.



Tight ends I love




Brandon Pettigrew, Lions: Often it takes a lot of time for a team to give up five scores to opposing tight ends. The Titans have managed it in two games. Second on the Lions in targets and top-10 in the NFL among tight ends, this is a pretty nice matchup.

Martellus Bennett, Giants: I liked him in the preseason, mentioning him in a few articles, but I'd be lying if I said I thought he'd be this good. But he's got the same number of targets this year as Jermichael Finley and Tony Gonzalez and one more than Rob Gronkowski. And with Hakeem Nicks out, Eli will lean on him even more.


Dennis Pitta, Ravens: Your NFL leader in TE targets and tied with Jimmy Graham for most receptions among tight ends. He's a big part of that offense and, off the field, Pitta is apparently very close friends with Joe Flacco. That never hurts. Just putting him in here because I've gotten a lot of questions about whether he's legit. He is.


If you're desperate … Scott Chandler has scored in two straight and they are using him more in the red zone with the injury to David Nelson. … Jermaine Gresham has 13 targets, tied for 11th among tight ends, but it's been a slow start. Redskins have given up the third-most points to opposing tight ends, including a score in each game. And their defense is reeling with the loss of Adam Carriker and Brian Orakpo.



Tight ends I hate




Jacob Tamme, Broncos: See Manning, Peyton

Fred Davis, Redskins: I loved Fred Davis in the preseason. I was dead wrong. He is not a part of this offense in any significant way. And I don't see that changing with any regularity. I would drop him for Bennett, Pitta or Kyle Rudolph if any of them were still available.


Greg Olsen, Panthers: You'll find out soon enough why. But I'm avoiding for now, including tonight.



Defenses I love




Seattle Seahawks D/ST Obvious name, but including them because I wouldn't bench them just because the Packers are coming to town. They're really strong at home and Green Bay's offense still isn't 100 percent in sync.


If you're desperate … the Lions D/ST should be fine to use in a home game against the mess that is currently the Titans.



Defenses I hate




Washington Redskins D/ST: Bad secondary, and now they're gonna have real trouble generating a pass rush. Or did you not see Sam Bradford stand back there for an hour looking for receivers?


Buffalo Bills D/ST: The Browns aren't good, but Trent Richardson makes them competent, and I'm not convinced this is the top-10 cushy matchup a lot of other people think.
And that's all we have. Good luck in Week 3 with whatever you decide to do. Either way, there's a 100 percent chance I'll be here next week to lend an ear.

 

[HacheMan]

No Nicks, No Problem
Fantasy owners didn’t have Hakeem Nicks or Ahmad Bradshaw Thursday night. If they plugged in Ramses Barden and Andre Brown, they fared as well as the Giants did.

Frankly, the Panthers’ defense should be humiliated. We knew they were bad, but this was a Sylvester Stallone in Rocky V kind of performance. It stank.

Brown has a ruptured Achilles’ tendon on his resume, is a pedestrian runner and has been cut by the Giants, Broncos, Colts, Panthers and Redskins in the last three years. He shredded Carolina for 113 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries. It puts even more space between Brown and rookie David Wilson, who got two touches in the entire game.

Barden is in his fourth year and came into the game with 16 career catches. At a slender 6-foot-6, he always struggled to get off press coverage and gain separation. That didn’t stop him from getting open at will on deep ins and put a 9/138/0 line on the Panthers.

Spot-starters can rejoice in their glory, but the long-term expectations here need to stay low. The injuries to Nicks and Bradshaw aren’t considered overly serious and the Giants won’t get the Panthers every week. If pressed into starting roles against the Eagles in Week 4, Brown and Barden would find real defenders in their way.

GIANTS AT PANTHERS RANDOM THOUGHTS
* Cam Newton played as bad as he can possibly play. He threw behind receivers, stared them down and missed open guys. He still compiled 10.2 fantasy points. It’s the definition of a high fantasy floor.
* Hakeem Nicks reportedly did not have setback with his foot. He was just simply too sore to play and be effective. It’s good news for owners.
* Martellus Bennett racked up a 6/73/1 line on seven targets. He’s for real in this offense.
* Steve Smith was eaten up by Corey Webster early. All of his stats came in garbage time.
* Brandon LaFell caught just one ball, but he separated with ease all night long. Cam Newton just missed him. Don’t jump ship.

NEWS OF THE DAY #1
Much like Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings (groin) sat out last Thursday’s game so he could get an extra 10 days of rest. Things don’t always go according to plan.

Jennings’ groin hasn’t responded as the Packers have hoped, leading to what can only be described as a setback. According to coach Mike McCarthy, Jennings “doesn’t feel like he has a handle on (the injury) yet.” He sat out Thursday’s practice, putting his Week 3 status in serious doubt.

The Packers do play on Monday night, but owners probably won’t be able to wait for a potential game-time call. It’s time to explore other options.

NEWS OF THE DAY #2
At first, the Chiefs said Jamaal Charles left the Week 2 loss early because of soreness in his surgically repaired knee. Now, they’re saying he sustained a knee bruise.

"He fell on his knee, got bruised, came up limping, so we took him out rather than leave him in there and expose him a little bit more," coach Romeo Crennel said. "Then as it developed, the other players were doing decent, so we didn't feel a need to put him back at that moment."

Either way, Charles put in a full practice on Thursday. It’s a great sign that he’ll at least get double-digit touches in Sunday’s game against the Saints.

NEWS OF THE DAY #3
Malcom Floyd says his body feels better now than it ever has. That’s a bold statement for a 31 year old, but it’s telling.

Floyd has been one of the more injury prone wideouts around. That’s caused him to become underrated. At 6’5/225 with excellent hands and good speed, Floyd is shaping up as a solid WR2 all year long. Robert Meachem just isn’t clicking with Philip Rivers like the Chargers hoped.

DEPTH CHART QUICK SLANTS
Trent Richardson isn’t playing on third downs right now, but OC Brad Childress suggested that will eventually change. … Daniel Thomas (concussion) returned and quickly moved ahead of Lamar Miller. He’s better in pass protection. … The Ravens have moved Dennis Pitta ahead of Ed Dickson on their official depth chart. The move was already made on the field. … Javon Ringer said he expects to have a small role behind Chris Johnson Sunday. … The Raiders aren’t going to move away from their new zone-blocking scheme. It’s bad news for Darren McFadden, but the schedule will get soft starting in Week 4.

INJURY QUICK SLANTS: RUNNING BACKS AND TIGHT ENDS
Ryan Mathews (clavicle) put in another full practice. He’s ready to rock. … Ryan Williams (knee) is limited right now. He’s well behind Beanie Wells. … Steven Jackson (groin) missed practice again. If he plays Sunday, he’s unlikely to be 100 percent. … Matt Forte (ankle) remains sidelined. Lock in Michael Bush. … Antonio Gates (ribs) almost played last week. Now he’s practicing in full. … Dustin Keller (hamstring) got in a limited practice.

INJURY QUICK SLANTS: WIDE RECEIVERS AND QUARTERBACKS
Austin Collie (concussions) practiced in full again. Don’t believe he’ll get into a game until we see it. … Pierre Garcon (foot) is headed for a game-time call. … Marques Colston (foot) is playing through pain but has been on the verge of big games in two straight weeks. … Jeremy Maclin (hip) got in a limited practice. He’s headed for a game-time call if he makes the flight to Arizona.

 

[HacheMan]

SNF Matchup: Patriots - Ravens Sunday Night Football

New England @ Baltimore


On Wednesday's NFL Live, ESPN's Mark Schlereth did a nice job of explaining why Wes Welker's playing time was scaled back in the first two games. "With Josh McDaniels as their new offensive coordinator, they've turned to the running game. This has become a balanced offense. It's gonna take some time to find its rhythm. They've never run the ball like this. They've become a power-zone team featuring Stevan Ridley." It may be all water under the bridge moving forward. The Pats need Welker after losing Aaron Hernandez to a high ankle sprain, and Welker's snap rate unsurprisingly leaped following Hernandez's injury. Welker played 77 percent of the downs against Arizona, caught five balls for 95 yards, and only Brandon Lloyd was targeted more. Welker has at least six receptions in each of his last three meetings with Baltimore. His yardage and TDs are unlikely to approach last year's totals, but Welker will continue to be a major PPR asset. ... Lloyd is leading New England in targets and is on the verge of a breakout game. You can feel it coming. The Ravens religiously keep top CB Lardarius Webb at left cornerback and play him in the slot on passing downs, and Lloyd runs most of his routes down the opposite side of the field. Likely to square off early and often with more vulnerable RCB Cary Williams, Lloyd might be the best fantasy play in Sunday night's game.

Friday Update: Lloyd is listed as questionable on the injury report with a "thigh" ailment. Lloyd played 82-of-82 snaps in Week 2, and two folks regularly at Patriots headquarters both believe he'll be playing against Baltimore. Despite the Q tag, I think Lloyd is worth waiting for in the Sunday night game because he's likely to play, has a great matchup, and is right on the cusp of a breakthrough week.


Through two games, at least, Baltimore's defense has not looked like the juggernaut it once was, without Terrell Suggs. And Suggs' loss has been felt both in run and pass defense. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and LeSean McCoy have both had rushing success against the Ravens, and they served up 371 passing yards to a previously struggling Michael Vick in Week 2. Ridley has at least 21 touches in each of the first two weeks and 247 yards from scrimmage. Always a good bet for goal-line scores, Ridley is an every-week starter until proven otherwise. ... Tom Brady has not gotten off to his usual red-hot start, and a dip in pass attempts is cause for early-season fantasy concern as New England tweaks its offensive philosophy. But there are holes in the Baltimore pass defense, which has struggled to get after quarterbacks through the first two weeks. ... Julian Edelman's snaps are up this year, but his production is underwhelming. He has six catches for 57 yards on eight targets. ... In addition to Welker, the Patriots figure to lean on Rob Gronkowski more as Hernandez rehabs his ankle. Gronkowski is up to 24 touchdowns in his last 24 games.

The Eagles' 9-Technique defense put the brakes on Baltimore's no-huddle last week, rendering Joe Flacco a checkdown specialist and forcing him into two turnovers. He completed 22 passes, but just four combined to first-team receivers Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin. Flacco can still register career-best passing stats this season -- I think he will -- but it's too early to anoint him a locked-in QB1. He's more of a low-end fantasy starter and top-end QB2. ... Dennis Pitta leads all tight ends in targets and catches through two games. Promoted into the starting lineup ahead of Ed Dickson, Pitta is playing 72 percent of the Ravens' offensive snaps and rarely blocking when he's on the field. He's an integral part of Baltimore's revised plan of attack. Start him against the Patriots. ... Flacco's target distribution through a couple of games: Pitta 24, Ray Rice 14, Boldin 9, Smith 8, Dickson 7, Jacoby Jones 5. ... New England's defense has not been the sieve it was last season against the pass, so aside from Pitta no Baltimore pass catchers have particularly attractive Week 3 fantasy matchups. I'd feel better about Smith if more balls were going his way.

The Patriots held Rice in check the last two times these two teams met, but the Ravens aren't running the football out of the I-formation on every snap anymore. The no-huddle allows Rice more opportunities to get the ball in space, and he's capitalizing en route to an average of seven yards per touch. The No. 5 overall fantasy back through two games, Rice remains an elite RB1 play every single week. ... Even more so than Smith, Boldin needs volume to sustain start-able fantasy production because his big-play ability has all but evaporated. I thought Boldin looked great in the opener. But he caught two balls for seven scoreless yards in Week 2. Boldin can't be trusted as a WR3. He's a weak flex option, too. ... An update on Ravens WR Tandon Doss, who made the offseason all-hype team: Doss has one target and a six-yard catch on 18 snaps so far.

Score Prediction: Patriots 20, Ravens 17

 

[HacheMan]

Matchups: Lean on Lloyd 1:00PM ET Games

Tampa Bay @ Dallas

If Week 2 was any indication, the Bucs' defense is at least almost as bad as we thought. The Giants put an offensive licking on Tampa Bay. Eli Manning set a career high -- by 90 -- with 510 yards, and Hakeem Nicks (199), Victor Cruz (179), Martellus Bennett (72), and Andre Brown (90, all-purpose) all did the same. The most overwhelmed defender on the Bucs' side was CB Aqib Talib, who was exposed for the vast majority of Nicks' yardage while also being flagged for two big pass interference calls. Dez Bryant is currently the best buy-low receiver target in fantasy football, and he may be impossible to acquire after this date with Talib. Start 'em. ... Miles Austin is the No. 8 overall fantasy wideout through two weeks of action. Despite little "buzz," he's scored in each of Dallas' first two games and leads all Cowboys in targets. Here is Tony Romo's target distribution on the young season: Austin 14, Jason Witten 13, Bryant and Kevin Ogletree 12, Felix Jones 7, DeMarco Murray 6. ... Ogletree isn't "the next Laurent Robinson," after all, and was targeted just once in Week 2 after his 11-target opener. He may have some more big games over the course of the season, but Ogletree will struggle for consistency as Romo's fourth passing option at best.

The Bucs served up six catches for 56 yards to Greg Olsen in Week 1 and a 5/72/1 stat line to Martellus Bennett in the second game. Both also had wide-open drops. It's been easy to get open over the middle against Tampa Bay's defense, so this is a favorable matchup for Witten. I still wouldn't be thrilled with him as a season-long fantasy starter. ... Although Jones has one more target than Murray so far, Felix is playing extremely poorly. He's no threat whatsoever to Murray's workloads. ... Expect a bounce-back game from Murray in Week 3, after Seattle's stout front seven put a stranglehold on Dallas' running attack last Sunday. The Cowboys should control this game, allowing Murray to pile up rushing attempts. Falling behind early to the Seahawks cost Murray in Week 2, as he touched the ball just four times after the break. ... The Giants' passing-game destruction of Tampa Bay bodes positively for Romo's Week 3 prospects. Dallas pass catchers should be able to win at all areas of the field in Sunday's game, just as Eli's did. It may be a bit of a scoring bonanza for the Cowboys.

Doug Martin's 3.66 YPC average doesn't jump off the page, but he's maintained solid RB2 stats with massive workloads. He ranks fifth in the NFL in touches and has at least 20 carries in both of the Bucs' first two games. Still missing Pro Bowl NT Jay Ratliff (ankle), Dallas' run defense has been relatively leaky thus far. Paced by Marshawn Lynch and fading Ahmad Bradshaw, opposing starting tailbacks combined to tag the Cowboys for 200 yards and two touchdowns on 43 carries (4.65 YPC) in Weeks 1-2. Expect another busy day at the office for Martin. He continues to be the featured player in Tampa Bay's offense. ... Feel free to throw LeGarrette Blount into the dumpster fire. He's been demoted to No. 3 on the Bucs' depth chart -- behind Martin and D.J. Ware -- and is being carried on the 53-man roster only as an insurance policy. ... Tight end Dallas Clark secured three of his four Week 2 catches in comeback mode and needs the Buccaneers to be in constant passing situations to get on the football field, let alone produce. There are a host of better TE2s.

Josh Freeman isn't yet to the point where he's a strong QB2, but I thought he showed signs of progress after watching the Week 2 tape. He made several big-time vertical throws, hooking up with Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. Freeman was a checkdown machine in August and the season opener. Dallas' pass defense has been nearly impenetrable, but keep tabs on Freeman to see if he makes more strides. ... Vincent Jackson separated with relative ease against New York's secondary, burning Corey Webster among others and benefiting from a successful play-action game. Just beware of this matchup. Through two weeks, Dallas has held opposing quarterbacks to 36-of-52 passing for just 364 yards (7.0 YPA) and two touchdowns. Working in V-Jax's favor will be the expected absence of FS Gerald Sensabaugh (calf). SS Barry Church (quadriceps) is also banged up. Under normal circumstances, the Cowboys would likely use Sensabaugh to play "over the top" of Jackson while jamming him with Morris Claiborne or Brandon Carr at the line. ... Although Williams scored in Weeks 1 and 2, he's seen just eight targets. The Bucs' run-heavy offense won't be able to support more than one fantasy-viable pass catcher over the long haul. Plenty of fantasy week-killing games are in Williams’ future.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Bucs 13

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Week 3 will be a telling test of Blaine Gabbert's mettle. After a seemingly promising preseason and opener against the Vikings, Gabbert took a major step back as his offensive line crumbled in last Sunday's blowout loss to Houston. LE J.J. Watt ransacked the right side of Jacksonville's front five as Gabbert managed a pathetic 53 yards on 19 pass attempts before exiting with fourth-quarter toe and hamstring injuries. After absorbing three sacks and seven quarterback hits, will Gabbert return to the crawl space from which he played throughout his rookie season? I wouldn't recommend starting any Jags pass catchers as we find out. ... Coach Mike Mularkey called out Justin Blackmon this week for tentative, indecisive route running, which is another way of saying Blackmon needs to start getting open. I still think Blackmon will end up leading the Jaguars in receiving, but he obviously needs to be plastered to fantasy benches for the foreseeable future.

As the Jags attempt to stay alive in games amid pass protection problems and Gabbert's struggles, they figure to turn the offense over to Maurice Jones-Drew. MJD looked sharp on 15 touches in Week 2, but falling behind big to the Texans cost him opportunities as the game got out of hand. The Jaguars should be more competitive this week. Rashad Jennings may return from his knee injury, but he is no longer a significant threat to Jones-Drew's workload. Expect 20-25 carries out of MJD and 3-5 receptions. While the Colts' defense has changed under Chuck Pagano and Greg Manusky, Jones-Drew has had a ton of historical success versus Indy. In 12 career meetings with the Colts, he's averaged 5.27 yards per carry on 230 rushing attempts and scored a dozen TDs.

Friday Update: Jennings is listed as doubtful on the injury report and will not play against the Colts. Jones-Drew will handle a full workload.

Andrew Luck ranks 20th in quarterback points through two games, settling in as a two-QB league option only. Whereas Jacksonville has been gashed by the run thus far, coordinator Mel Tucker's defense continues to stifle opposing passing games with a Cover-2 shell that prevents big pass plays. The Jaguars haven't surrendered a single passing touchdown yet, and get top corner Derek Cox back from his hamstring injury this week. Luck is just a QB2. ... It might be time to start taking Donnie Avery seriously as a fantasy contributor, though. Benefiting from more attention paid to Reggie Wayne by the Vikings' Week 2 defense, Avery racked up team highs in targets (10), receptions (9), and yards (111) a week after securing Luck's first career touchdown pass. Avery's strengths (deep speed) and weaknesses (physicality, durability) are such that he may always struggle with week-to-week consistency, but he'll remain a threat for big games as long as Austin Collie (concussions) continues to miss them. Although Collie practiced extensively this week, I wouldn’t expect to feel confident about his availability until just before Sunday’s game. His immediate on-field role remains unclear.

Friday Update: Collie is listed as probable on the injury report after a full practice week. He still must receive doctors' approval to play, however, and Collie will visit a head specialist on Saturday. If Collie is active on Sunday morning, use this as a "wait-and-see" week for the Colts' receiver spot across from Wayne.

After scoring a Week 1 touchdown and averaging 5.3 yards per carry against the Bears, the real Donald Brown showed up last Sunday. Consistently stuffed around the line of scrimmage by the Vikings, Brown's YPC dropped to 2.81 and he was nonexistent in the passing game for a second straight week. The matchup is right for Brown against Jacksonville, but the talent just isn't there. He comes off the field on all passing downs and requires offensive line domination for productive rushing efforts. Brown is and will continue to be a weak flex option. ... Luck's target distribution through two games: Reggie Wayne 25, Avery 18, Coby Fleener 14, Kris Adams (who?) 7, Mewelde Moore 3, Brown 2, Dwayne Allen 1. ... Collie's return could sting Wayne a bit, but there's no telling when that will happen and to what extent. Keep Wayne rolling in Week 3. He's an every-week WR2. ... Fleener received ten of his targets in Week 1, when the Colts played most of the game in comeback mode. Fleener's playing time was similar in both games, but he'll need to do more in order to earn mid-range TE2 consideration. Fleener isn't close to a legit fantasy starter.

Score Prediction: Colts 20, Jaguars 17

Buffalo @ Cleveland

I used Wednesday to re-watch Bills-Chiefs. C.J. Spiller's inside running still leaves something to be desired, but coach Chan Gailey did a terrific job of scheming him into space on draws, zone-read type handoffs, sweeps, and pass plays. Spiller is a homerun threat every time he gets to the perimeter, and will offer legit RB1 value until Fred Jackson (knee) returns, if not longer. Already lacking front-seven personnel to field a stingy run defense, the Browns are now trying to nurse back starting DT Billy Winn from a concussion. Start Spiller and make the rest of your lineup decisions around him. ... Tight end Scott Chandler is a post-up slot receiver in Buffalo's five-wide offense, but Ryan Fitzpatrick looks for him regularly deep in the red zone and he has a couple of touchdowns to show for it already. Chandler may always struggle for high reception and yardage totals, but he's never a poor bet to find pay dirt. I really like the fact that Chandler plays over 90 percent of the snaps, now, too. He didn't come close to that rate last year. More field time will increase Chandler's fantasy consistency. He's the primary beneficiary of David Nelson's ACL tear.

Fitzpatrick's target leaders through two weeks: Stevie Johnson 15, Chandler 11, Donald Jones 10, Spiller 6. ... Jones recorded a 5/41/1 line in the season opener, doing his damage in garbage time of a blowout loss to the Jets. He regressed to one catch for a loss of one on three targets in Week 2. While a fluky "breakout" game may come at some point, Jones is barely roster-worthy in 14-team leagues. ... Johnson remains the featured member of Buffalo's passing game and ranks 15th in fantasy receiver scoring after two games. Start Johnson every week, and particularly against the Joe Haden-less Browns. Cleveland's post-Haden pass defense busted Andy Dalton's ten-game slump last week. ... Fitzpatrick's fantasy stats don't look bad with five touchdown passes in the first two contests. His on-field performance has been far less remarkable, playing a major role in Buffalo's Week 1 48-28 defeat and managing the game in Week 2 with 19 pass attempts. Fitzpatrick is worth a two-quarterback league play against Cleveland, but he's not a top-12 option.

Trent Richardson's removal for Chris Ogbonnaya on pass downs may lead to some slow weeks when the Browns fall way behind, but the rookie looked every bit an RB1 in last Sunday's one-score loss to Cincinnati. Richardson ran angry, often requiring three or four Bengals to bring him down. He made unblocked defenders miss, accelerated through alleys, and got stronger as the game progressed. One of Richardson's most impressive traits is vision. Whereas BenJarvus Green-Ellis generally runs straight at a defender he'll spot 6-8 yards downfield, Richardson runs away from the enemy by ripping off a sharp lateral cut well before the two make open-field contact. He then blows by the off-balance defender with an outside burst of speed. The skill levels of Law Firm and Richardson are not close, but what really sets them apart is their running mindset. Richardson possesses dynamic talent and plays like it. Green-Ellis lacks dynamic talent and plays like it. From this point forward, start Richardson in fantasy every single week.

Cincinnati's defense lacks outside-edge rushers and can't cover anybody in the back end, so with hindsight on our side, it's probably not shocking that Brandon Weeden had a good game against the Bengals. After watching his horrendous preseason and opener, though, we need more data for confidence in the Browns' passing game. Weeden enjoyed a squeaky-clean pocket against Cincinnati, and we already knew he could spin the football beautifully in what essentially amounts to a 7-on-7 pickup game. The Bengals gave Weeden forever to throw. Let's see him do it against a Bills defense that sacked Matt Cassel five times with five additional hits in Week 2. ... Weeden's target distribution through two games: Mohamed Massaquoi 15, Greg Little 11, Richardson 8, Josh Gordon 7, Ogbonnaya 6, Alex Smith 5, Ben Watson 3. ... Massaquoi had 90 yards in Week 2 -- a high in his last 37 games. While Buffalo's pass defense is unimposing, Massaquoi has been consistently unreliable and inefficient throughout his career. Little is the only Browns pass catcher worth Week 3 fantasy consideration, and even he would be a low-end WR3.

Score Prediction: Bills 24, Browns 14
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NY Jets @ Miami

Mark Sanchez has played five good quarters and three bad ones through two weeks of action. His kryptonite has and will continue to be defensive pressure. After an impressive opening 15 minutes against the Steelers in Week 2, Sanchez's performance went in the tank as OLB LaMarr Woodley almost single-handedly controlled the game for the final 45. While the Dolphins don't typically present an imposing pass-defense matchup, LE Cameron Wake and red-hot DT Randy Starks are capable of similarly putting the brakes on New York's passing attack. ... The Jets are a philosophically run-first offense and don't match up well with the Dolphins' run-dominant defense. What Miami lacks in cover corners it has in spades inside the trenches. In their first two games, the Fins have allowed just 101 rushing yards on 43 carries (2.35 YPC) to opposing running backs, and Arian Foster, Ben Tate, and Darren McFadden are no slouches. The Jets will have to have to rely on Sanchez's arm to move the ball on Sunday. I don't think it's going to be pretty.

Stephen Hill is long on talent, but consistency will be elusive. After a 5/89/2 Opening Day line, Hill crashed back to Earth with a catchless Week 2 game on two targets. He's a fantasy WR5. ... Santonio Holmes caught two balls for 25 yards and a TD on the Jets' first drive at Pittsburgh. He proceeded to run lazy routes and get shut down by Ike Taylor the rest of the way, securing just one of his final seven targets for a gain of three yards. Holmes has a favorable Week 3 matchup on paper, but he's far from a trustworthy fantasy option. ... Bilal Powell saw increased playing time following Shonn Greene's Week 2 head injury. Powell is worth stashing in 12-team leagues as an RB5, but no Jets running back is a viable play in this impossible matchup. Powell is ahead of Joe McKnight on the depth chart and has been for a while. ... Dustin Keller is tentatively expected back from his hamstring strain this week, but he's had enough setbacks that he's not remotely on the fantasy radar for starting lineup purposes. ... Slot receiver Jeremy Kerley has been the Jets' most consistent and reliable wideout through two games. Kerley's playing time is less reliable because he rides the bench in two-wide packages and plays in a running offense that goes heavy on them.

Friday Update: Keller was listed as questionable on the final injury report, but did not practice and the beat writers in New York now expect him to miss this game.

Vegas put a 41.5-point over-under on Jets-Dolphins. It's the lowest of any Week 3 game and I think it might be generous. While it was nice to see Ryan Tannehill turn in a largely productive, efficient Week 2 game against the Raiders, he's now going from facing perhaps the league's worst pass defense to its best. I wouldn't expect much passing success from the Dolphins as a whole this week. ... Brian Hartline rejoined the starting lineup against Oakland to post career highs in yards (111) and receptions (9). This is great news for Tannehill, but Hartline is a WR4/5 versus Darrelle Revis & Co. ... Davone Bess is the other Dolphins starting receiver, with Legedu Naanee plummeting down the depth chart. Bess carries value in PPR leagues only, and even then it's not much. ... Reggie Bush is the lone start-able Dolphins skill-position player in Week 3. The Jets' defense lacks speed up front to prevent Bush from getting to the perimeter, and he's likely to have as much success as any Miami receiver on pass plays. Start Bush with confidence as an RB2 approaching legit RB1 status.

Although his production came late in a blowout against a weak Raiders defense, Dolphins rookie Lamar Miller flashed his big-time potential off the bench in Week 2 with 65 yards and a touchdown on ten runs. Miller has blinding speed and acceleration, and I would not be surprised if he passed sluggish holdover Daniel Thomas on the depth chart before long. Grab Miller in 14-team leagues. Miller is also worth stashing at the end of 12-team league rosters in "hopes" Bush goes down.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 13, Jets 10

Kansas City @ New Orleans

Entering the season, many observers anticipated Kansas City's defense being among the NFL's strongest. The opposite has been true. On Monday, Romeo Crennel was forced to announce that he'll stay on as head coach and defensive coordinator, as opposed to relieving himself of the latter duties following a brutal start. Crennel's defense has surrendered 67 points through two games, including five touchdown passes. They were lit up by the previously reeling Bills in Week 2. If the Chiefs' defense plays Sunday like it has the past two, Drew Brees and Marques Colston will have no trouble at all busting their slumps. ... It's safe to say Brees is "pressing" a bit, considering the facts that he's forcing throws into coverage and has four picks in the first two weeks. It's also safe to say he will get better. In his last eight home games, Brees has completed 216-of-315 passes (68.6 percent) for 2,789 yards (8.85 YPC), and a 29:6 TD-to-INT ratio. He's going to be just fine. ... Colston has been inches from three touchdowns in the first two weeks. While his speed-sapping foot injury is a mild concern, Colston's game has never been founded on creating large amounts of separation. Look for Colston to get off the schneid this week against Kansas City. If Dez Bryant is the best buy-low receiver in fantasy football, Colston is a very close second.

Darren Sproles doesn't have a single rushing attempt on the year, yet still ranks top-20 amongst fantasy backs and has been an RB1 in PPR leagues. Start him every week regardless of format. ... Mark Ingram needs the Saints to either be playing in a close game or with a lead in order to produce starting-caliber fantasy stats in a given week. He did that against Carolina in Week 2, rushing for 53 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. Not much has changed for Ingram from 2011. He's a weekly flex option. ... Pierre Thomas totaled 143 yards last Sunday, but his week-to-week outlook remains the same. He's second in line for rushing attempts in New Orleans' backfield, and second in line for receptions as well. Though Thomas is arguably a better player, he's a weaker fantasy flex play than Ingram because the latter is a superior bet for red-zone scores. ... Brees' target distribution through two games: Jimmy Graham 23, Sproles 22, Colston and Lance Moore 15, Thomas 7, Devery Henderson 2, Ingram 1. ... While Moore is always a threat for big games, his role in the Saints' offense makes him inherently inconsistent as the fourth option in the passing attack. Moore continues to play more snaps than last season, though, and should finish with a better year-ending stat line. His big weeks will just be impossible to predict.

Saints-Chiefs has Week 3's highest over-under, in part because New Orleans is lethal offensively at home and more so because neither of these defenses has shown an ability to stop anyone. The Saints have given up more yards than any team in the league. They're tied for the NFL lead in points allowed with -- you guessed it -- the Chiefs. It is a constant theme in the Matchups columns that we recommend starting players involved in likely shootouts. This is a likely shootout, so trot out your studs and use the high-scoring projection as a tiebreaker for lineup decisions. ... Matt Cassel is no one's idea of a QB1, but he should be started pretty confidently in two-quarterback leagues. Though Kansas City's offensive philosophy is run-heavy, Cassel has been racking up pass attempts due to large deficits. Look for him to keep it up against a New Orleans ballclub that can't get pressure on the quarterback. ... Dexter McCluster's role dwindled in Week 2 after his buzz-generating opener, but he's worth a look in PPR leagues squaring off with overwhelmed Saints rookie slot cornerback Corey White. White was regularly toasted in the first two weeks.

Dwayne Bowe is a top-ten receiver play in this matchup. He will be targeted heavily. ... I reviewed the Chiefs-Bills tape and Jamaal Charles looked fast, elusive, and healthy before an apparent second-quarter knee bruise cost him second-half playing time. Practicing fully, I would start him with confidence in this game. Charles is a much better buy-low trade target than Chris Johnson. He’s willing to fight for yards and his offensive line can run block. ... Peyton Hillis is clearly an inferior runner to Charles. While Hillis plays more in the passing game, he has not exhibited big-play ability in the first two games and generally performed in a sluggish manner. All that said, Hillis remains on the flex radar this week due to the opponent. New Orleans has allowed league-highs in rushing yards (372) and touchdowns (5) through two weeks. ... Jon Baldwin's snaps crept up from 22 in the opener to 39 in Week 2, although it was attributable to come-from-behind mode. Baldwin is rotating with Steve Breaston opposite Bowe.

Score Prediction: Saints 33, Chiefs 24

Cincinnati @ Washington

The Redskins have the NFL's fourth-ranked rushing offense through two weeks, and it's difficult to imagine the Bengals stopping them. Once a feared defense, the Bengals are getting gashed both up front and in the back end. Mike Zimmer's unit was bullied around the field by the lowly Browns in Week 2. It's a personnel issue. Alfred Morris is unspeakably slow by NFL tailback standards, but he's a good bet for another 80-100 yard day. Keep trotting out Morris as a flex until Shanahan & Son bench him. (It will happen eventually; just hopefully not this week.) ... Both of Robert Griffin III's Week 2 rushing touchdowns appeared to be drawn up and designed deep in the red zone. Shanahan & Son have kept fantasy owners up at night with their running back deployment, but the aggressive usage of Griffin should please the masses. After losing OLB Brian Orakpo (pectoral) and DE Adam Carriker (quadriceps) for the season, the Redskins may also be headed for a high volume of shootout-type games. Washington had been counting on its front seven to mask the secondary deficiencies. They're going to struggle to put heat on opposing quarterbacks now. That may cost the Redskins in the won-loss column, but it's going to help pad Griffin's fantasy stats.

Fred Davis leads Washington in targets (9) through two games, but passes aren't being thrown his way downfield. He's doing a lot of blocking and running routes around the line of scrimmage. I wouldn't bet on Davis busting his slump this week. ... Keep Evan Royster rostered in 12-team leagues. While it isn't saying much, Royster has better burst than Morris. He was also in the game quite a bit late against the Rams. Roy Helu appears entrenched as a situational passing-down back only, with Royster second in line for early-down work. ... Josh Morgan made Week 2's most boneheaded play, chucking the ball at a St. Louis defender and drawing a late fourth-quarter unsportsmanlike penalty with Washington driving and down by three. Morgan cost his team a chance to tie the game, and I wouldn't be surprised if the flag costs him playing time to Leonard Hankerson going forward. Hankerson secured two of his three Week 2 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown. ... Santana Moss can be dropped in fantasy leagues as a slot receiver who plays only in the nickel offense. Moss has 61 yards on eight targets so far. ... It doesn't look like X receiver Pierre Garcon (foot) will play against Cincinnati, but I wouldn't look for WR3 fill-in value here. Aldrick Robinson and Hankerson rotated evenly with Garcon out in Week 2. Neither is a trustworthy option. I'd take Hankerson over Robinson if forced to choose between those two.

Friday Update: Garcon was listed as doubtful, which is a downgrade from last week's questionable tag. He won't play against the Bengals. The rest of the Redskins' receivers remain rolls of the dice, but I'd look at Hankerson if I really wanted to start one of them in this mouth-watering matchup. OC Kyle Shanahan had high praise for Hankerson during the practice week, and the ball goes to the X receiver in Washington's scheme. Hankerson offers quite a bit of upside for a guy you can probably scoop up off the waiver wire on Friday or Saturday.

Andy Dalton's Week 2 box score looks good, but the game tape doesn't. Dalton has Andrew Hawkins' open-field elusiveness and Brandon Tate's straight-line speed to thank for two of his three touchdown passes, and Dalton flat-out missed an alarmingly high number of open throws against a bad Cleveland pass defense playing without its top corner. The Skins are also porous against the pass, but not to the point that Dalton is worth consideration as a standard-league starter. He's just a two-QB league option. ... I do think Washington's secondary and pass rush woes elevate A.J. Green from mid-range WR1 to elite receiver start. The Redskins entered the season relying on Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan's outside pass rush to mask deficiencies at safety and cornerback. The Washington back end played atrociously last week against the Rams, with Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson running around wide open throughout the secondary as Sam Bradford had ample time to throw. Green has been solid in the first two games, but he could be headed for an explosion week. Jim Haslett's defense has little or no prayer of stopping him.

Upstart slot receiver Andrew Hawkins is a dicey fantasy bet week in and week out because he only plays on passing downs. Through two games, Hawkins' snap rate stands at a paltry 48.9 percent. Hawkins has made up for it so far with playmaking ability and Week 1 comeback mode against the Ravens, but he will struggle to keep it up without a major bump in playing time. He's high-risk. ... Tate and Armon Binns will be incredibly inconsistent because they rotate at "X" receiver. Binns starts and plays more snaps, but it's a dilemma to avoid. ... Jermaine Gresham has gone 22 straight games without hitting 75 yards. He will never be a viable fantasy starter in Jay Gruden's brand of offense. ... The talent differential between Trent Richardson and BenJarvus Green-Ellis was enormous in favor of the rookie during last week's Browns-Bengals game. Green-Ellis has no big-play ability, plays sparingly in the passing game, and is about to start losing touches to now-healthy Bernard Scott. Strongly consider trading Green-Ellis while you can still get something worthwhile. He'll be a drain on your week when he doesn't score at the goal line.

Score Prediction: Redskins 28, Bengals 17

St. Louis @ Chicago

The Bears dispute the Chicago Sun-Times' description of Matt Forte's injury as a high ankle sprain, but Forte won't be playing this week and perhaps not for a while. While Michael Bush lacks Forte's elusiveness and long speed, he can compensate with three-down tools and sheer volume. Bears OC Mike Tice has installed an old-school power-running offense this season, and Bush is now tasked with carrying the mail. It's a recipe for huge workloads. Through two weeks, St. Louis' defense has permitted 259 yards on 47 carries. The 5.51 yards-per-rush average is the highest in the NFL, and the Rams have also allowed four rushing touchdowns in two games. Trot out Bush as a borderline RB1. ... Bears rookie Alshon Jeffery has a boatload of ability, but is a sub-60 percent receiver at this point, rotating with Devin Hester (37 percent) and Earl Bennett (45 percent) across from Brandon Marshall (96 percent). Consistency will be elusive. Unsurprisingly, Jeffery followed up his 3/80/1 Opening Day stat line with one catch for seven yards last Thursday night against the Packers. Jeffery won't be a reliable fantasy option until his field time increases.

Jay Cutler is much better than his Week 2 showing at Green Bay might suggest, but the Bears' offensive line problems remain alive and well and that was evident in the 23-10 defeat. They're a definite concern for Cutler's fantasy outlook. On paper, a matchup "versus St. Louis" typically appears enticing, but the Rams' greatest team strength is pass defense with Chris Long and Robert Quinn bending the edges and Janoris Jenkins and Cortland Finnegan patrolling the back end. Cutler and his pass protection need to string together a couple of promising efforts before we entertain him as a legitimate QB1. ... There are two surefire fantasy starters on the Bears' roster. They are Bush and Brandon Marshall. Though Marshall was shut down by Tramon Williams last week, fantasy leaguers need to shake off the disappointing outing and keep running him out there as a WR1/2. ... Cutler's target distribution through two games: Marshall 20, Forte 11, Bennett 10, Kellen Davis and Jeffery 7, Hester 3, Bush 0. ... Keep in mind that those old Forte targets will now be directed Bush's way. ... Davis caught a touchdown pass in Week 2, but he isn't even a TE2.

I don't blame anyone for being down on Steven Jackson as a fantasy back with no touchdowns, 14.2 standard-league points, and an alleged groin injury through two weeks. But let's be clear about something: S-Jax is still a ferocious, explosive runner capable of punishing a defense with a little bit of help from the guys around him. Even with Danny Amendola racking up catches left and right, Jackson was the best skill-position player on the field in the first half of last week's Rams-Redskins game. He's got plenty left in the tank. ... It should be obvious but I've been asked about it: Daryl Richardson is not taking Jackson's job. While the seventh-round pick has impressed with speed to burn and silky change-of-direction skills, Richardson is a boom-or-bust finesse runner. He is and will remain a pace-change back until he shows an ability to churn his legs through contact. Richardson is easy to tackle when the blocking doesn't get him out in space. ... Drop Isaiah Pead if you haven't already. Whereas Richardson played 43 snaps in Week 2, Pead was in there for two offensive plays. Richardson ran a full circle around his more heralded competition.

Friday Update: Jackson missed practice all week and is listed as questionable on the injury report. Coach Jeff Fisher says his playing status will be decided just before Sunday's game, presumably based on a pre-game warmup. Check back Sunday morning for the Rams' inactives, but this is a fantasy situation I'd try to avoid. The matchup is difficult, the health status of Jackson is almost a complete unknown, and the seventh-round rookie Richardson would be a shot in the dark as a fantasy option in the event Jackson were ruled out.

Amendola was a machine against the Redskins. He amazingly caught a pass on each of St. Louis' first seven successful offensive plays. The Redskins had no answer as Amendola racked up 12 first-half receptions for 133 yards and a touchdown. St. Louis spent much of the second half trying to run out the clock. Amendola won't be open that often on a regular basis, but he's clearly the featured player in the Rams' passing game. Consider Amendola a WR3 option in standard leagues and every-week PPR starter. ... Amendola is the possession target while Brandon Gibson is the guy the Rams want to get the ball to downfield. He has a touchdown in each of the first two games. Just be careful. St. Louis opened the year against two of the NFL's worst pass defenses (Detroit, Washington), and Chicago's is much stingier. I might grab Gibson as a WR5, but he's not a starter against the Bears. ... Sam Bradford looked pretty good against the Redskins on frequent rollouts and boots as St. Louis schemed to get him outside the pocket. Like Josh Freeman in Tampa Bay, Bradford's fantasy ceiling is curtailed by a philosophically run-first offense. But he's someone to keep an eye on as a potential QB2 pickup. Through two weeks, Bradford has a 4:1 TD-to-INT ratio and 71.7 completion rate. His 8.5 YPA would be a career high by over two full yards.

Score Prediction: Bears 23, Rams 16

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San Francisco @ Minnesota

The 2012 49ers have a legitimate chance to be this decade's version of the 2000 Ravens. They render rushing attacks non-factors with dominance in the trenches, and keep quarterbacks under constant duress with edge benders and bull rushers. Offensively, the Niners mix a deep, effective run game with efficient passing. From a fantasy perspective, the Niners' defensive ruin of enemy ground games has the greatest box-score impact. If you're starting Adrian Peterson, it isn't because you think he'll light the 49ers up. San Francisco has permitted 85 yards on 31 carries (2.74 YPC) through two weeks. It's been five games (Week 17 last year) since they allowed a rushing touchdown. ... Percy Harvin has at least 100 total yards in seven of his last eight games. Locked in as a WR1, Harvin may be Minnesota's primary means of ball movement -- especially if Peterson is stifled. ... Something for fantasy leaguers to keep in mind: Jerome Simpson returns from suspension next week. Simpson has long been an inconsistent, unremarkable wide receiver, but Vikings coaches think highly of him and he's worth picking up to stash as a WR5.

Be it due to wideouts who can't separate downfield or his own tendency to drop his eyes, Christian Ponder leans heavily on the short passing game and his scrambling ability. Perhaps Simpson will change things, but so far this hasn't been a vertical offense. The horizontal approach suits Harvin, and the same will be said for Kyle Rudolph once he starts playing better. Rudolph has a drop in each of Minnesota's first two games, including one of a would-be red-zone score last week. If he converts those plays, we're talking about Rudolph as an every-week TE1. Through two games, tight end has been the one offensive position giving San Francisco problems. Jermichael Finley and Brandon Pettigrew both have touchdowns against them. ... Exclude Ponder's four games after his Week 13 hip pointer last year -- an injury that torpedoed his late-season performance -- and Ponder's career stats through eight healthy games stand at 168-of-278 (60.4 percent) for 2,037 yards (7.33 YPA), and an 11:8 TD-to-INT ratio. He's also run for 160 yards. That's quality QB2 production, and he should only get better. Ponder remains a low-end QB2 in this matchup.

The one advantage this year's 49ers have on the aforementioned Ravens team is more effective quarterback play. Alex Smith continues to play with consistency and efficiency, and over his last nine games has accounted for 15 all-purpose touchdowns. He's turned the ball over once. Smith is a high-end QB2 against a Minnesota defense that can take away run games but not stop the pass. ... Opposing quarterback stats bordered on prolific against the Vikings for much of 2011, and they've picked up where they left off. Blaine Gabbert and Andrew Luck combined to complete 43-of-70 passes (61.4 percent) for 484 yards (6.91 YPA), four touchdown passes, and no interceptions against the Vikes in Weeks 1-2. Passing success should not be difficult for the 49ers to come by. Start Vernon Davis confidently. ... Michael Crabtree continues to wallow as a low-end WR3 and figures to square off frequently Sunday with top Vikings CB Antoine Winfield. Though he's getting long in the tooth, Winfield is still exceptionally physical and effective in coverage.

Minnesota's run defense has been dominant for over a half-decade, and it's still going strong in the post-Pat Williams and E.J. Henderson era. Frank Gore is just playing too well to sit. While he remains a passing-game afterthought, Gore ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing and is averaging over six yards a pop. Even if the YPC average comes down against a stout Vikings front, Gore will be a solid bet for a touchdown with goal-line vulture Brandon Jacobs (knee) out another week. ... Kendall Hunter is one of the league's better and more consistently used change-of-pace backs, though he's rarely an effective flex option and certainly not in difficult matchups. Hunter has 16 touches for 85 yards through two games. He needs Gore to get injured or slow down to be start-able in fantasy leagues. ... Randy Moss and Mario Manningham are rotating as second receivers who are really third and fourth pass options behind Davis and Crabtree. Moss, coming off a one-catch, 14-yard game, is bench material in fantasy football. Manningham isn't worth a roster spot.

Score Prediction: 49ers 20, Vikings 17

Detroit @ Tennessee

While Jake Locker's physical tools continue to tease and entice, his early-season play has been problematic in crucial areas. At San Diego in Week 2, Locker showed an alarming propensity for running out of the pocket when pressured, and missing easy passes due to throwing off his back foot. He's also getting little help from his teammates. Tennessee has the worst running game in the league, and Pro Football Focus has charged Titans receivers with an NFL-most eight drops through two games. The Lions rank fourth in sacks and have defensive line talent to exploit the Titans' glaring weaknesses at center and right guard. (Ndamukong Suh plays a large majority of his snaps versus the latter position.) This is a difficult matchup for the Tennessee offense, and Locker played poorly enough last week that he may no longer have a long leash. The season is getting away from the Titans. ... Think about buying Chris Johnson low, then think again. CJ?K's post-Week 3 slate pits him against Houston, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh in Weeks 4-6. Perhaps he'll be benched for good by the time that run ends. Or maybe the Titans will still be trotting him out and you'll be able to get Johnson for near-free leading into Week 7. Current Johnson owners should bail if they can salvage something worthwhile. Target Jamaal Charles or Trent Richardson.

Kenny Britt played 19 snaps in his return from suspension and dual offseason knee scopes. He caught one ball for five yards on two targets at San Diego. Keep in mind the Titans only got off 42 plays as they were dominated in time of possession, so 19 snaps were almost half of what was available. And after watching All-22 tape of Britt's plays, I'm ready to start him in a fantasy league against Detroit. Britt exploded off the line as if he'd never been hurt and played extensively in the slot, where he'll be tougher to double team. Coach Mike Munchak confirmed Wednesday that he anticipates Britt playing "a lot more" in Week 3. I expect Britt to lead Tennessee in receiving the rest of the way. ... If Britt returns to dominant form as I suspect he can as soon as this week, Kendall Wright, Damian Williams, and Nate Washington will vie for leftover targets in what could be a bit of a fantasy-headache situation. Williams actually led that group in Week 2 snaps. Wright led in targets. Washington was fighting through a leg injury, although he's supposedly healthy this week. ... Jared Cook's playing time is way up from last season, but his box-score production has been disappointing along with the rest of Tennessee's offense. He's just a TE2 until we see more.

No team in football is as vulnerable up the middle as the Titans. FS Michael Griffin and SS Robert Johnson have been easy to beat in pass coverage, and MLB Colin McCarthy's (high ankle sprain) absence has been more than felt. The Titans allowed five passing touchdowns in Weeks 1 and 2. They were all scored by tight ends. If there was ever a week to play Brandon Pettigrew in your fantasy league, this is it. ... Both national and local projections envision about 12-16 touches for Mikel Leshoure in his Week 3 return from a two-game suspension on the heels of an Achilles' tear. It's a wait-and-see week for his fantasy prospects. Running backs notoriously struggle to regain burst after Achilles' surgery, and his 2.2 August YPC average inspired little confidence that Leshoure will beat the odds. ... It's been just two weeks and Kevin Smith's fantasy value already seems to be on shaky ground. The Lions increased Joique Bell's Week 2 involvement (8 touches) and now Leshoure is back. Tennessee does not play tough run defense, but it may not matter if Smith's playing time takes a sudden spill. While still offering a fair amount of upside as a skilled passing-down back in a pass-based offense, Smith has the look of an extremely dicey RB2/flex.

Opposing quarterback stats through two games against the Titans: 47-of-63 (74.6 percent) for 520 yards (8.25 YPA) and a 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Don't forget to start Matthew Stafford. ... Calvin Johnson has 14 catches for 205 yards on 19 targets after two weeks. He just hasn't found pay dirt yet. The touchdowns will come. ... Stafford's target distribution behind Megatron so far: Pettigrew 14, Tony Scheffler and Nate Burleson 11, Smith 9, Titus Young 6, Bell 3. ... Young isn't worth dropping, but he clearly isn't worth starting and doesn't look close. That could change in a matter of one week, of course. ... Scheffler (calf) is not expected to play Sunday. ... Burleson is just a guy and is not worth a fantasy roster spot. ... Rookie Ryan Broyles has yet to play an offensive snap.

Score Prediction: Lions 30, Titans 20

4:05PM ET Games

Atlanta @ San Diego

Ryan Mathews has received full medical clearance and practiced without limitations this week. I expect him to handle a near-full workload against Atlanta, based at least partially on the fact that Curtis Brinkley and Ronnie Brown were brutally bad during Mathews' time away, combining to average 1.84 yards per carry on 37 runs. Now playing on a short week after last Monday night's win, the Falcons' rush defense has been an early-season sieve, allowing opposing first-string tailbacks Willis McGahee and Jamaal Charles to combine for 200 yards and two touchdowns on 38 carries (5.26 YPC) in Weeks 1 and 2. Mathews will be a top-five weekly running back starter the rest of the way. ... Antonio Gates (ribs) was a last-minute scratch in Week 2, perhaps because the Chargers felt they could beat the scuffling Titans at home without him. Coach Norv Turner described Gates as "moving fast" and looking "good" following Wednesday's practice, and he had no late-week setbacks. Gates is still the heavy favorite for targets, receptions, and yards in Philip Rivers' pass-catching corps over the course of the year. Leave Dante Rosario on the waiver wire.

Considering the adversity he's been dealt at offensive line and receiver, I think it's fair to suggest that Rivers is playing some of his best ball. While he remains a low-end QB1 -- ranking 11th in fantasy quarterback scoring -- Rivers has kept you competitive thus far and can remain a matchup play. His blindside protection remains a big concern. Undrafted rookie LT Mike Harris was abused by Titans RE Kamerion Wimbley in Week 2, and Harris' sledding gets even tougher this week against Falcons RE John Abraham. It wouldn't be a bad idea to sell high on Rivers. I have no confidence that LT Jared Gaither (back) will get his act together. ... Rivers' targets through two weeks: Malcom Floyd 14, Brown and Brinkley 9, Gates 8 (missed one game), Robert Meachem 6, Eddie Royal and Rosario 5, Randy McMichael 4. ... Meachem is playing under 70 percent of the snaps and essentially running clear-out routes down the sideline while Rivers works the middle of the field and looks for Floyd on the perimeter. Meachem's role isn't far off what it was in New Orleans. He's a WR5. ... Royal remains the fantasy non-factor he's long been. ... Gates and Floyd are the only start-able Chargers pass catchers for the foreseeable future. Look for Floyd to match up often with burnable RCB Dunta Robinson Sunday. Approaching legit WR2 value, Floyd has at least 100 yards and/or a touchdown in eight of his last ten games.

The Falcons got back to their roots a bit early in their Week 2 game against Denver, employing a power-running offense that predictably sputtered. Michael Turner executed at the goal line on Atlanta's opening drive, went on to average 2.47 yards per carry on 17 runs, and hit the town at night. He was arrested Tuesday at 5AM for DUI and speeding. Turner is a first-time offender of the NFL's substance abuse policy and in no danger of suspension, but the off-field incident may give playcaller Dirk Koetter a convenient excuse to turn away from the declining onetime power back, possibly for good. Toss out a fluky Week 17 game against a Bucs defense that had already called it a season, and Turner has been completely ineffective since about midway through last year. No team in football has defended the run better than San Diego through a couple of games. Sit Turner in Week 3. ... Jacquizz Rodgers has overtaken Jason Snelling as the Falcons' No. 2 back. Rodgers has 12 touches compared to Snelling's four, and has played 35 more snaps. I wouldn't get excited about either one in fantasy leagues. Rodgers is a good football player and excels in the pass game, but continues to underwhelm as a ball carrier (2.5 YPC, career 3.43).

Matt Ryan is the No. 2 fantasy quarterback and I wouldn't expect him to slow down anytime soon. Ryan actually hit his stride last November. Over his past 11 regular season games, Ryan has a 25:4 TD-to-INT ratio with eight efforts of 260-plus yards. Consistent and possessing more upside than ever, Ryan will live up to his 2012 fantasy draft position and then some. The Chargers' defense is much less imposing through the air than on the ground. ... Roddy White will square off with heavy-footed LCB Quentin Jammer for most of this game's snaps, while Julio Jones deals with streaky RCB Antoine Cason. Both Falcons wide receivers have favorable Week 3 matchups. Trot 'em out. ... Tony Gonzalez doesn't run as well as he once did, but still has a knack for finding soft spots and is a go-to target in scoring position. He's locked in as a TE1. ... Ryan's target distribution through two weeks: White 19, Jones and Gonzalez 16, Harry Douglas 7, Rodgers 3. ... This offense can support three fantasy-viable pass catchers (Jones, White, Gonzalez), but not four. Douglas is buried in the passing-game pecking order and not roster-worthy in 12-team leagues.

Score Prediction: Falcons 27, Chargers 24

Philadelphia @ Arizona

The Cardinals have won nine of their last 11 games dating back to the middle of last season, but they have not scored more than 23 points in any of them. They are winning with defense. Arizona has playmakers at all three levels and should not be regarded as an attractive fantasy matchup going forward. Of course, I'm about to tell you to start virtually all of your Eagles this week. Sometimes this stuff doesn't just make sense. But we try to give credit where it's due. ... Michael Vick leads the NFL in turnovers and interceptions. He still ranks fifth among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. Because Vick runs for so many yards and plays in such an explosive, passing-based offense, he's fantasy slump-proof as long as he's playing four quarters. And Vick will get better. You'll be glad you drafted him. ... DeSean Jackson has at least 80 total yards in four straight games dating back to last season and is playing with more of a focused chip on his shoulder. D-Jax moves around the formation enough that he won't exactly be easy for Patrick Peterson to follow in "shadow" coverage. Ride Jackson while he's hot, and especially when Jeremy Maclin (hip) isn't playing.

Maclin will apparently be a game-time decision, but I might write him off as a Week 3 fantasy option after he aggravated the hip trying to play through it last week, and finished with 23 yards. Maclin is a difference maker in real life and fantasy when healthy, but he could really benefit from a rest week. My guess is we won't see him at Arizona. ... Brent Celek leads the NFL in receptions of 20-plus yards. While his 18.5 yards-per-catch average is unsustainable, Celek was the primary beneficiary of Maclin's reduced Week 2 role, tying a career high with eight grabs and setting one with 157 yards. Celek is on the TE1 radar as long as Maclin is missing time. ... LeSean McCoy could afford to cut out the fumbling, but reasserted himself as matchup-proof with 89 total yards and a touchdown against the Ravens in Week 2. ... Rookie Bryce Brown has passed Dion Lewis on the tailback depth chart in Philadelphia and is a better McCoy handcuff for deep-league owners. ... Slot guy Jason Avant has been less of a factor than usual, failing to clear 35 receiving yards in the first two games. ... Undrafted rookie Damaris Johnson would see increased playing time against the Cards if Maclin can't go. Johnson has two catches for 23 yards through two games.

Friday Update: Maclin has been ruled out for Week 3.

I couldn't bring myself to bench Larry Fitzgerald under any scenario, but it's more than fair to be concerned after he managed just 67 combined yards in the first two games. It's notable, too, that Fitz dusted the Philly pass defense for seven catches, 146 yards, and two touchdowns in a November game last year. He'll bust his slump sooner rather than later. ... As the Patriots took Fitzgerald away in Week 2, it was Todd Heap to the rescue with 62 yards on five catches before spraining his left PCL. Heap just isn't a fantasy option this week. The 32-year-old has been unable to play effectively through injuries late in his career. ... Early Doucet, Andre Roberts, and Kevin Kolb are fantasy waiver-wire fodder against Philadelphia's top-four pass defense. ... Beanie Wells is under three yards a carry, and Ryan Williams is at 1.22. Neither is better than a fantasy RB3.

Score Prediction: Eagles 23, Cardinals 13

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4:25PM ET Games

Pittsburgh @ Oakland

Denarius Moore returned from his two-month hamstring injury in Week 2 at Miami, starting at X receiver and tying Darrius Heyward-Bey for the team lead in targets (8). Pro Football Focus charted Moore with 40-of-65 snaps (61.5 percent). While a Week 3 date with Steelers RCB Ike Taylor isn't attractive for matchup purposes, Moore is on his way toward recapturing WR3 start-ability. Keep a close eye on Moore in Week 3, then consider starting him at Denver in Week 4. ... Heyward-Bey's snap percentage dropped from 91.9 in the opener to 73.8 with Moore's return against the Dolphins. Underwhelming so far in the Raiders' new offense, Heyward-Bey has yet to clear 45 yards in either of the first two games and will need to pick it up before he's given flex or WR3 consideration. ... Tight end Brandon Myers leads Oakland in receiving yards (151) through two weeks, which tells you all you need to know about the slow-starting Raiders passing game. Myers ran a 4.78 forty at 6-foot-3, 256 before Al Davis made him a sixth-round pick in the 2009 draft. Myers is getting a lot of playing time, but there are many TE2s with better fantasy upside. Look for Myers to spend this game as an in-line tight end trying to help block LaMarr Woodley.

Although his “fit” in Oakland’s new zone-blocking scheme has been widely questioned, Darren McFadden is the best trade target in fantasy football. When the ZBS system starts clicking, it can border on impossible to stop. Perhaps DMC will struggle again versus Pittsburgh's shutdown run defense, but his schedule looks like a cakewalk soon thereafter. With run-defense rankings in parentheses, here is McFadden's slate for the ensuing four games: @ Denver (7), @ Atlanta (25), vs. Jacksonville (31), @ Kansas City (27). Trade for McFadden while he's still affordable. ... Carson Palmer has just two touchdown passes through two games, the first on a garbage-time toss to rookie third receiver Rod Streater and the second on a screen pass, which No. 2 tailback Mike Goodson took 64 yards to the house. Palmer will get better as Moore gets healthier, but for now he should rank pretty low on QB2 lists.

No secondary has been struck as hard by early-season injuries as the Raiders'. LCB Ronald Bartell (broken shoulder) is out until midyear, while fellow starter RCB Shawntae Spencer (foot sprain) is sidelined indefinitely. With its run game nicked up and unreliable, Pittsburgh could shred Oakland with the pass if Todd Haley so chooses. The Raiders will trot out 31-year-old career slot corner Joselio Hanson and ex-Packers second-round bust Pat Lee (two career starts) as starters. Ben Roethlisberger couldn't ask for a more favorable matchup in sunny NorCal. ... Big Ben's target distribution on the young year: Antonio Brown 18, Emmanuel Sanders 12, Mike Wallace 11, Heath Miller 10, Jonathan Dwyer 6. ... Brown has over 70 yards in each of Pittsburgh's first two games and seems right on the brink of a breakout week. This matchup could push him over the top. Start 'em. ... Wallace has already found his groove in Haley's offense with touchdowns in Weeks 1 and 2. Though his targets seem low, Wallace has secured nine of the 11 balls thrown in his direction. The efficient start could lead to more looks from Roethlisberger and featured playcalls from Haley.

Miller is battling a rib injury that cost him most of this week's practice reps. While he figures to be active against the Raiders, Miller's low ceiling isn't worth the fantasy gamble. ... Sanders' high target count and 68-percent snap rate give him the look of a roster-worthy WR4/5. He could ascend to WR3 value with an injury to Wallace or Brown. Sanders is primarily a slot receiver, but can play outside if needed. ... Same as it ever was, Oakland's defense got pummeled by the run in last week's blowout loss to the Dolphins. Unfortunately, the Steelers lack a surefire starting fantasy back. Isaac Redman is averaging under 2.0 yards per carry, and Jonathan Dwyer is battling a mild case of turf toe while failing to exceed 13 touches in either of the first two games. Rashard Mendenhall (knee) won't play until Week 5. Dwyer continues to be the best fantasy bet in the Steelers' backfield, but that's not saying much. He's a complete roll of the dice as a flex option.

Score Prediction: Steelers 24, Raiders 10

Houston @ Denver

Running backs coach Chick Harris described the Texans' backfield to the Houston Chronicle this week: "The rotation might be four-two (Arian Foster to Ben Tate carries) or three-three," said Harris, explaining that touches will be distributed based mostly on game flow. "Once we see how each player is playing, who’s hot and who’s not, we’ll adjust accordingly." Foster is the premier running back play in the league every week, but Tate will keep fantasy owners guessing. He'll hurt you if the Texans don't grab a big early lead and lean on the running game. I wouldn't guess they'll grab a big early lead at Mile High this week. ... Andre Johnson's production dropped off in Week 2 because Houston took the air out of the football in a lopsided blowout of Jacksonville. The Texans are going to need Johnson this week in what could be a more passing-friendly shootout game. It's notable that the Broncos have yet to employ Champ Bailey in regular "shadow" coverage of opposing No. 1 receivers so far this year, instead "playing sides" and leaving Bailey at left cornerback. Perhaps they'll switch it up against the Texans, or maybe they won't. I'd plug Johnson into my fantasy lineup and hope Bailey spends another game at LCB.

Matt Schaub's target distribution through two games: Owen Daniels 17, Johnson 14, Foster 10, Tate 7, Kevin Walter and James Casey 6. ... The fact that Daniels continued to see heavy targets (9) -- rather than block -- in last week's easy win over the Jaguars is promising for his fantasy outlook moving forward. I still think Daniels is more high-end backup than surefire fantasy starter, but his sizable role is notable. Per Pro Football Focus, Daniels has played 125-of-158 snaps (79.1 percent) in the first two games, running 59 pass routes. For comparison's sake, trendy TE1/2s Kyle Rudolph and Dennis Pitta have each run 66 routes. So despite his offense's decidedly run-first design, Daniels isn't that far off guys generating considerably more fantasy buzz. ... The rest of the Texans' pass catchers are off the fantasy radar for the foreseeable future. Casey is an interesting, versatile talent but Houston makes no effort to get him the ball. ... While Schaub is plenty capable of going toe-to-toe with some of the league's finest passers, Houston's offensive philosophy prevents him from putting up big fantasy stats. Schaub has one touchdown pass or fewer in six of his past nine games. He is worth a look in two-quarterback leagues and that's it.

Beware Houston's pass defense. LE J.J. Watt is terrorizing passers, and RCB Johnathan Joseph is taking away their top wide receivers. Even LCB Kareem Jackson has looked good early, albeit against Ryan Tannehill and Blaine Gabbert. But the domination of Houston's No. 1 pass defense is nothing new; Wade Phillips' group held the league's No. 1 ranking a year ago as well. Peyton Manning has been a Jekyll & Hyde quarterback through two games, looking sharp as can be against the Steelers in Week 1 and like a dull-armed, declining 36-year-old for much of Week 2 against the Falcons. I would be surprised if Manning posted top-15 quarterback stats in Week 3. I couldn't bring myself to start him in such a brutal matchup. ... No wide receiver has more fantasy points than Demaryius Thomas through the season's first two weeks. Thomas runs most of his pass routes against opposing right corners, and will experience Joseph's suffocating coverage for the majority of Sunday's game. You can't bench Thomas, but expectations should be checked.

Look for Eric Decker to lead Denver in receiving this week. Jackson plays most of his snaps in "off" coverage, giving wideouts a lenient cushion. Decker can eat him up with underneath routes. Despite a relatively slow start, Decker needs to stay in fantasy lineups. He has the most favorable Week 3 matchup of any Broncos pass catcher. ... Jacob Tamme showed why he is not a legit TE1 with a 27-snap Week 2 game. The Broncos can turn to Brandon Stokley in the slot, and No. 2 tight end Joel Dreessen is a superior blocker. While Tamme can be an effective possession pass catcher, he is a replaceable player in this offense. I'd rather start Dennis Pitta, Kyle Rudolph, and maybe even Scott Chandler. ... Willis McGahee is averaging a rock-solid 4.66 yards per carry through two games, displaying power, balance, and speed to the corner rare for a running back who turns 31 in a month. Houston's defense is similarly prohibitive against rushing attacks, but McGahee can be relied upon for 16-plus touches and all goal-line work. He's an every-week RB2.

Score Prediction: Texans 23, Broncos 17

Sunday Night Football

New England @ Baltimore

On Wednesday's NFL Live, ESPN's Mark Schlereth did a nice job of explaining why Wes Welker's playing time was scaled back in the first two games. "With Josh McDaniels as their new offensive coordinator, they've turned to the running game. This has become a balanced offense. It's gonna take some time to find its rhythm. They've never run the ball like this. They've become a power-zone team featuring Stevan Ridley." It may be all water under the bridge moving forward. The Pats need Welker after losing Aaron Hernandez to a high ankle sprain, and Welker's snap rate unsurprisingly leaped following Hernandez's injury. Welker played 77 percent of the downs against Arizona, caught five balls for 95 yards, and only Brandon Lloyd was targeted more. Welker has at least six receptions in each of his last three meetings with Baltimore. His yardage and TDs are unlikely to approach last year's totals, but Welker will continue to be a major PPR asset. ... Lloyd is leading New England in targets and is on the verge of a breakout game. You can feel it coming. The Ravens religiously keep top CB Lardarius Webb at left cornerback and play him in the slot on passing downs, and Lloyd runs most of his routes down the opposite side of the field. Likely to square off early and often with more vulnerable RCB Cary Williams, Lloyd might be the best fantasy play in Sunday night's game.

Friday Update: Lloyd is listed as questionable on the injury report with a "thigh" ailment. Lloyd played 82-of-82 snaps in Week 2, and two folks regularly at Patriots headquarters both believe he'll be playing against Baltimore. Despite the Q tag, I think Lloyd is worth waiting for in the Sunday night game because he's likely to play, has a great matchup, and is right on the cusp of a breakthrough week.

Through two games, at least, Baltimore's defense has not looked like the juggernaut it once was, without Terrell Suggs. And Suggs' loss has been felt both in run and pass defense. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and LeSean McCoy have both had rushing success against the Ravens, and they served up 371 passing yards to a previously struggling Michael Vick in Week 2. Ridley has at least 21 touches in each of the first two weeks and 247 yards from scrimmage. Always a good bet for goal-line scores, Ridley is an every-week starter until proven otherwise. ... Tom Brady has not gotten off to his usual red-hot start, and a dip in pass attempts is cause for early-season fantasy concern as New England tweaks its offensive philosophy. But there are holes in the Baltimore pass defense, which has struggled to get after quarterbacks through the first two weeks. ... Julian Edelman's snaps are up this year, but his production is underwhelming. He has six catches for 57 yards on eight targets. ... In addition to Welker, the Patriots figure to lean on Rob Gronkowski more as Hernandez rehabs his ankle. Gronkowski is up to 24 touchdowns in his last 24 games.

The Eagles' 9-Technique defense put the brakes on Baltimore's no-huddle last week, rendering Joe Flacco a checkdown specialist and forcing him into two turnovers. He completed 22 passes, but just four combined to first-team receivers Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin. Flacco can still register career-best passing stats this season -- I think he will -- but it's too early to anoint him a locked-in QB1. He's more of a low-end fantasy starter and top-end QB2. ... Dennis Pitta leads all tight ends in targets and catches through two games. Promoted into the starting lineup ahead of Ed Dickson, Pitta is playing 72 percent of the Ravens' offensive snaps and rarely blocking when he's on the field. He's an integral part of Baltimore's revised plan of attack. Start him against the Patriots. ... Flacco's target distribution through a couple of games: Pitta 24, Ray Rice 14, Boldin 9, Smith 8, Dickson 7, Jacoby Jones 5. ... New England's defense has not been the sieve it was last season against the pass, so aside from Pitta no Baltimore pass catchers have particularly attractive Week 3 fantasy matchups. I'd feel better about Smith if more balls were going his way.

The Patriots held Rice in check the last two times these two teams met, but the Ravens aren't running the football out of the I-formation on every snap anymore. The no-huddle allows Rice more opportunities to get the ball in space, and he's capitalizing en route to an average of seven yards per touch. The No. 5 overall fantasy back through two games, Rice remains an elite RB1 play every single week. ... Even more so than Smith, Boldin needs volume to sustain start-able fantasy production because his big-play ability has all but evaporated. I thought Boldin looked great in the opener. But he caught two balls for seven scoreless yards in Week 2. Boldin can't be trusted as a WR3. He's a weak flex option, too. ... An update on Ravens WR Tandon Doss, who made the offseason all-hype team: Doss has one target and a six-yard catch on 18 snaps so far.

Score Prediction: Patriots 20, Ravens 17

Monday Night Football

Green Bay @ Seattle

Cedric Benson added a new dimension to Green Bay's offense in Week 2 against the Bears, rushing 20 times for a steady 81 yards and chipping in a 4/35 stat line in the pass game. Even at age 29 after over 1,500 career carries, Benson has maintained quick feet and plenty of power. Can he keep it up against the NFL's premier run defenses? Seattle has suffocated the Dallas and Arizona tailback corps to the tune of 72 yards on 30 rushing attempts, amounting to an average yards-per-carry of 2.40. The Packers have an ability to keep defenses in run-friendly nickel packages with four-wideout sets, but this is an awfully difficult matchup on paper. Benson is a flex option. ... Just 19th in fantasy QB scoring through two games, Aaron Rodgers is off to a painfully slow start, particularly for the first-round quarterback crowd. He's still a lock to get back on track. The Seahawks play strong pass defense, but often force offenses to pour on pass attempts due to their inability to run against Seattle's front. Rodgers probably isn't in for a monster Monday night fantasy game, but has elite talent complemented by sheer passing volume on his side. Start 'em.

We'll know more about Greg Jennings' (groin) status by Saturday after an apparent in-practice setback. You should already know the drill if Jennings is inactive. Via Pro Football Focus, here are the snap and target tallies from last Thursday's win over Chicago: Jordy Nelson 66/9, Jermichael Finley 55/6, James Jones 54/5, Randall Cobb 20/2. ... Cobb's two targets and low snap total were disappointing, although he missed some time with an early stinger and late-game hamstring injury. Keep Cobb reserved as a WR4 until we see sustained production. ... Jones laid an absolute egg against the Bears despite a healthy dose of involvement. He's a maddening fantasy player to try to predict. The Seahawks have outside cornerbacks capable of locking down perimeter receivers with physical press coverage, and Jones has never been great at getting off the jam. I'd write Jones off as a Week 3 fantasy option. ... I previously talked up Dez Bryant and Marques Colston as ideal buy-low receiver targets. Jordy Nelson has been more productive than both, but impatient fantasy owners get distressed when their guys aren't scoring touchdowns and Nelson has yet to find pay dirt. Trade for Nelson if you can and start him on Monday night. ... Finley already has three dropped passes and his agent publicly questioned Rodgers' leadership skills in the media this week. Finley is a talented headcase, apparently surrounded by more headcases. He's a wholly boom-or-bust TE1.

I like Seattle in the upset. In addition to the obvious 12th-man homefield advantage, the Seahawks are as capable as any team of exploiting a soft front seven with power-zone running. Marshawn Lynch dominated a strong Dallas front seven for 122 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries in Week 2, and has at least 85 rushing yards in ten of his past 11 games. Green Bay is serving up over five yards a carry on the ground. Run defense has been their team weakness through two weeks and extending back into the 2011 season. Look for some Beast Mode runs out of Lynch on Monday night. ... Away from Rodgers' side of the ball, the Packers' strength has been pass defense. They have used CB Tramon Williams to shadow opposing No. 1 wide receivers, and he executed with a two-catch, 24-yard shutdown of Brandon Marshall last Thursday. The Packers can also get after the passer. Expect a big night for Seattle's run game, and a conservative day through the air.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Packers 21

 

[HacheMan]

Week 3 Injury Questions Andre Brown and Ramses Barden proved that short-term fantasy football is often about opportunity. Give a guy snaps in the right situation against a bad defense and he’ll produce.

We’ll have plenty more backups getting looks this week. Michael Bush, Daryl Richardson, Leonard Hankerson, Damaris Johnson and James Jones are among the guys on our radar.

As we get set for kickoff, we’ll look for clues on those lesser-knowns and post it on our relentless News Page. We’ve also got rankings from Chris Wesseling/Mike Clay here and Evan Silva’s ridiculously mind-blowing Matchup Column here. Inside the Season Pass, you’ll find flex rankings and exact projections for every player.

If you want to draft a new team just for this week, check out SnapDraft. And if you don’t have it already, you need the Rotoworld App for your iPhone/iPad. Badly.

OK, let’s get to the hurt folks:

1PM GAMES
RAMS at BEARS
* Steven Jackson (groin) did not practice all week and is headed for a true game-time call. Owners should have Daryl Richardson at the ready.
* Matt Forte (ankle) is out. Consider Michael Bush a solid RB1 this week.

49ERS at VIKINGS
* Brandon Jacobs (knee) still appears doubtful. More goal-line work for Frank Gore.
* Adrian Peterson (knee) isn’t even listed on the injury report. The Vikings say they’re ready to give him even more carries.

LIONS at TITANS
* Calvin Johnson’s foot/ankle injury was never a real concern. He’s ready to go.
* Javon Ringer (elbow) practiced in full all week but is listed as questionable. Either way, the Titans are sticking with Chris Johnson as their workhorse for now.

BUCS at COWBOYS
N/A

BENGALS at REDSKINS
* Pierre Garcon’s mysterious foot injury continues to linger. He’s listed as doubtful. Leonard Hankerson looks like a good bet to start at the explosive "X" receiver spot in the Shanahan offense.
* Bernard Scott (hand) is finally ready to go. However, he’s not a threat to BenJarvus Green-Ellis just yet.

CHIEFS at SAINTS
* Despite some soreness/bruising in his surgically repaired knee, Jamaal Charles practiced all week and is listed as probable.
* Marques Colston (foot) is tentatively expected to play through a questionable tag. Lance Moore is his direct backup.
* Kevin Boss (head) is out.

JETS at DOLPHINS
* Dustin Keller (hamstring) appears headed for a true game-time call. He’s not a true fantasy option until he gets to 100 percent.
* Daniel Thomas (concussion) is ready to go. Lamar Miller returns to his third-string role.

BILLS at BROWNS
* Fred Jackson (knee) is ahead of schedule, but he remains sidelined. It’s the C.J. Spiller show.

JAGUARS at COLTS
* Rashad Jennings (knee) is still out. Maurice Jones-Drew is going to get a ton of touches.
* Blaine Gabbert (glute) is fine. Not sure if that’s a good thing for the Jags.
* Austin Collie (concussions) is listed as probable. Still, he could be ruled out at any time if doctors find something is off. The safe play for owners is to wait-and-see here.

4PM GAMES
EAGLES at CARDINALS
* Jeremy Maclin (hip) didn’t make the trip. Damaris Johnson will start in his place as a desperation fantasy play.
* Todd Heap (knee) is expected to gut it out through a questionable tag. So much for getting that look at Rob Housler.

FALCONS at CHARGERS
* Antonio Gates (ribs) practiced without issue all week. He’s ready.
* Ryan Mathews (clavicle) will make his season debut. Even if he only gets 2/3 of the running back snaps, he’s well worth a fantasy start.
* Julio Jones and Roddy White both took it easy at practice this week. It’s only because the Falcons played on Monday night.

TEXANS at BRONCOS
N/A

STEELERS at RAIDERS
* Rashard Mendenhall (knee) is still targeting Week 5 for his return. Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman will carry the load.
* Sebastian Janikowski (groin) is listed as questionable, but is not thought to be in any danger of missing this one. Just make sure the Raiders don’t sign a kicker on Saturday.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
PATRIOTS at RAVENS
* Brandon Lloyd (thigh) picked up a questionable tag after being limited in practice all week. He should be fine.
* Aaron Hernandez (ankle) is out for a month. Look for the Pats to run more three-wide sets than usual, thus getting Wes Welker on the field plenty.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
PACKERS at SEAHAWKS
* Greg Jennings (groin) had a setback this week. He’s going to be really hard to wait for in this Monday night start. It will probably end up as a game-time call.
* James Starks (toe) isn’t ready yet. Cedric Benson’s job is safe anyway.
* Marshawn Lynch (back) practiced in full Friday. He’s healthy.

MY TOUGHEST DECISION OF THE WEEK
In a 12-team half-PPR league, my flex spot came down to Mark Ingram or Kenny Britt.

Whenever we have a decision with Ingram, the first question is if the Saints will have a lead. They are nine-point favorites over the Chiefs at home this week and are coming off two straight losses. It’s safe a bet that they’ll have control of this game.

Britt, coming off knee surgeries, played 19 snaps in last week’s season debut. Evan Silva reviewed those snaps here and came away impressed.

To me, this is an absolute coin-flip decision. Obviously one guy will end up scoring more points than the other, but neither choice is wrong. In that case, I go with the guy that has more upside and explosiveness. And that guy is clearly Britt.

SURVIVOR PICK OF THE WEEK
Last week was huge for me. I used the Bengals while about half of my remaining opponents lost with the Patriots. I’ve now survived with the Lions and Bengals.

This week, there are three strong options: The Cowboys (vs. Bucs), Bears (vs. Rams) and Saints (vs. Chiefs). I’ve chosen to roll with the Bears.

It’s an ideal spot for Chicago, as they are coming off 10 days of rest and facing a Rams team that is primed for a letdown after last week’s emotional win over the Redskins. Steven Jackson is hobbled. No Matt Forte hurts, but Michael Bush is a starting-caliber back.

 

[HacheMan]

Slow starters

Why Darren McFadden, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning have struggled so far

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

This week on the Fantasy Underground podcast, Field Yates and I take in-depth looks at Robert Griffin III, Jamaal Charles, Wes Welker, Joe Flacco, Dennis Pitta and more. In order to provide you, the trusted fantasy consumer, full value, I won't be double-dipping about them for this column. You can listen to the latest Fantasy Underground ("Subverting the Tyranny of the Box Score Since 2012") here.


So here's an entirely new set of guys and situations I investigated this week. See that? I do twice the work, because I love you so much.


Five In Depth

1. Darren McFadden's Slow Start. I've read a fair amount of pontificating this week about the suitability of the Oakland Raiders' zone-blocking scheme to Run-DMC's game. The stats are these: According to the San Jose Mercury News, under Tom Cable's zone schemes, McFadden rushed for 856 yards in 25 games, good for only 34 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry. Under Hue Jackson's power-blocking schemes, McFadden had 1,771 yards in 20 games, which translated to 89 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. With Dennis Allen and new offensive coordinator Greg Knapp going back to zone blocking, Run-DMC has 54 yards on 26 carries. On the surface of things, it looks like the system could be the problem.


Through two weeks, what I see on the game film is simple: McFadden has nowhere to run. Again and again, he is cracked by a San Diego Chargers or Miami Dolphins defender at the point of attack. Even if Raiders linemen had been matched man-on-man rather than assigned "O-line routes" -- an oversimplification of what zone schemes are supposed to accomplish, but it helps draw a distinction -- I find it difficult to believe that McFadden would have suddenly run wild. Oakland was just stuffed. The Mike Shanahan/Arian Foster style of gap-control, cut-blocking and intricate timing isn't exactly exotic, and I can't see an inherent reason McFadden can't succeed if it's working properly. Heck, as the Mercury News points out, that's basically the scheme that Reggie Bush used to rack up 172 yards rushing against the Raiders last week.

There were other circumstances limiting McFadden's effectiveness during those early years with Cable, namely his health. He battled bad turf toe injuries his first two NFL seasons. Plus, the line itself has been injured early this season. Stefen Wisniewski missed Week 1 with a calf injury, and Khalif Barnes came out midgame in Week 2 after hurting his groin.


Proclaiming that the blocking scheme is the only variable is silly. Could it be a contributing factor? Absolutely. Foster's patient running style isn't for everyone, but it's often required of a back running behind a zone system. Watch Foster or Bush glide at a 45-degree angle, often touching one of his linemen, then hit a crease and, boom, he's off. McFadden often likes to be a whirling dervish, a la Adrian Peterson.


I'm not saying the system isn't a factor. I'm just saying it's not the only factor. That Raiders line couldn't have budged the interior of that Miami defensive front if it had been given a backhoe. The sledding probably won't be great this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers either. However, because McFadden is such a threat to catch the ball, he has to be in your lineup. Going forward, observe DMC's patience and see if he is missing creases if and when they finally start showing up.


2. Josh McDaniels: Offense Killer? We'll never know the true story of how decisions get made on the New England Patriots. It might be the most tight-lipped organization in sports history. You certainly won't get a straight answer about why Wes Welker suddenly found himself behind Julian Edelman on the depth chart in Week 2 (but not Week 1), a topic Yates and I tackle at length in the Fantasy Underground podcast. But there's weirdness here that goes beyond Welker.

Why did Danny Woodhead play so much in the second half when Stevan Ridley had done strong work in the first? ESPN Boston reports that Woodhead played 17 snaps in the Pats' first nine series against the Arizona Cardinals last week and 20 snaps over the final three possessions. Yes, New England went no-huddle a bunch, and that's sometimes a situation that plays to Woodhead's strengths. But it wasn't working for him Sunday, especially not on a third-quarter third-and-6 play in deep field goal territory, when the team ran a curious toss-sweep with Woodhead instead of Ridley on which Woodhead was perhaps supposed to lateral the ball back to Tom Brady. The play lost 9 yards and took the Patriots out of field goal range.


Also, saying nothing about Welker's playing time, why has the team apparently decided to use him differently when he is on the field? He is an elite slot receiver, maybe the best in league history, yet McDaniels is sending Welker far down the field in more patterns than I can remember. Welker's average yards at the catch last season was 6.7, which was 88th in the NFL among qualified pass-catchers. On Sunday, it was 10.6. That is a one-game sample, but Welker only outdid a 10.6 downfield average once in 16 contests last season. I don't remember many seam routes for Welker in 2011, but he ran several Sunday.


For that matter, I've been a bit frustrated to see the routes that Brandon Lloyd has run. Again, I'll give the requisite disclaimer about small sample size, but Lloyd's yards-at-the-catch average this season is 7.8, a far cry from his 11.6 in 2011 and 15.9 in 2010. In both of those seasons, his plays were almost exclusively called by, you guessed it, Josh McDaniels. It seems to me that using Lloyd on a wide receiver screen isn't the best use of his abilities, though I understand NFL offenses also want to cross up their tendencies.


Saying all this is to conclude ... nothing. It's too early, but I don't like much of what I've seen from McDaniels through two games. He seems to be outclevering himself, especially with the Welker/Edelman mess.


3. Let The Aaron Rodgers Panic Begin? I have fielded more Twitter missives and chat questions over the past week about whether to bench A-Rod than in the past two seasons combined.


But let's take a moment to see if what's ailing the Green Bay Packers' offense is real and potentially fatal. Let's start with a few key statistics, comparing Rodgers' first two games of 2012 with his historic 2011 campaign:


<table><thead><tr><th></th><th> 2011 </th><th> 2012 </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Average yards at the catch </td><td> 7.2 </td><td> 4.8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Percentage of attempts traveling 1-10 yards </td><td> 44.2% </td><td> 53.9% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Percentage of attempts traveling 11-20 yards </td><td> 25.9% </td><td> 17.1% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Sacks per attempt </td><td> 6.7% </td><td> 9.5% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Drops per attempt </td><td> 7.9% </td><td> 9.2% </td></tr><tr><td colSpan="3">(Sources: Stats, LLC and ProFootballFocus.com)</td></tr></tbody></table>



The first four rows in this chart are a reflection of something that Packers fans no doubt have felt through two weeks: The offensive line is shaky. Rodgers is often under duress and has less of a chance to let his receivers get down the field. The yards-at-the-catch stat is particularly alarming. In 2011, Rodgers with sixth among qualifying quarterbacks. In 2012, he's 30th.


There are mitigating factors. First, the Packers have played games against two pretty good defenses, the San Francisco 49ers and the Chicago Bears. The 49ers' defense speaks for itself, and while I'd argue that the Bears' defense isn't elite any longer, it is very familiar with Rodgers. Although to be fair, in two games against the Bears last season, Rodgers was sacked a total of twice for five yards; last Thursday night, Chicago got him five times.


Rodgers was also without his best receiver, Greg Jennings, for Week 2. (Missing the sure-handed Jennings probably enhanced that drops-per-attempt stat a bit.) Plus in the Chicago game, Green Bay seemed fixated on establishing Cedric Benson, giving him 24 touches from scrimmage, more than any running back had in a single game during the 2011 season.


Finally, while I can't say I noticed a real change in play calling, Joe Philbin is out as offensive coordinator and Tom Clements is in.

Nevertheless, I'm fixated on the pass protection. Left tackle Marshall Newhouse had a couple of high-profile blown assignments that led to sacks in Week 2, including a blown one-on-one speed rush by rookie Bears lineman Shea McClellin in a shotgun formation, which looked just awful. But right tackle Bryan Bulaga was just as guilty, allowing two sacks, and he struggled much worse than Newhouse against the 49ers. (Left guard T.J. Lang hasn't been particularly good either.)


As the Packers prepare for a Monday night game against a Seattle Seahawks defense that has seen Chris Clemons and Red Bryant become unheralded studs coming off the edge, it's fair to wonder if Rodgers might be in for another long night.


I'd imagine the Packers are preparing another game plan in which shorter throws are the norm, and if they don't have Jennings -- whose groin injury figures to make him a game-time decision -- they'll potentially be lacking in wideout playmakers. Still, I trust Rodgers so implicitly that I probably would start him against the '85 Bears. Seattle's run defense has been rugged enough that I don't think Green Bay enters the game hoping to give Benson anywhere near the same number of touches as Week 2. They'll sink or swim (and probably swim) with Rodgers.


4. Peyton's Place Is On Your Bench ... This Week. I'm not overly freaked about Peyton Manning's Week 2 performance against the Atlanta Falcons, including those three first-quarter interceptions. The conversation about Manning's arm strength -- which was exacerbated when the Denver Post reported that Brock Osweiler was warming up to throw a Hail Mary if needed -- is probably overstated. Instead, I focused on two other factors: Peyton's chemistry with his receivers and the wobbliness of his throws.

The latter is easy to describe. Manning threw some ducks, and not just the ones that were picked off. But it's revisionist history to proclaim that Manning always threw tight spirals with the Indianapolis Colts. Having spent some time throwing footballs in my distant past, I can say that a wobbly throw doesn't always (or usually) have that much to do with arm strength. Often as not, the problem is mechanical and related to shoulder, body position or grip. While I certainly never saw Manning throw a pass Monday night that made me go, "Wow, that's the second coming of John Elway," neither did I think any of his misguided passes were particularly loopy or late in arriving. They simply wobbled. I'm not saying that the phenomenon isn't related to the mechanics of Manning's four neck surgeries. I'm simply saying I don't believe it's all about a lack of power.


The main problem on Manning's second and third picks came in the space between his ears. On the second, he threw into triple coverage trying to hit Jacob Tamme. He saw something that wasn't there. If Thomas DeCoud hadn't intercepted it coming across his zone, there's a decent chance William Moore would have gotten it playing man on Tamme. There was no window. Manning's third pick was another awful misread against two deep safeties, where Brandon Stokley was simply never open. No arm in the world would have completed those passes.


But the first pick, the one that got the snowball rolling downhill, is more interesting. Tamme was the intended receiver, and I had the impression that Manning expected his tight end to drift right. The throw wasn't great, and Moore came across Tamme's face to pick it off. But Manning seemed to hesitate just a bit and tried to finesse the ball into a spot where he didn't seem to believe Tamme should be. A yard farther to the outside, and the pass probably would have dropped in the bucket. And that's interesting to me, because there were other nonintercepted passes where Manning seemed to expect route adjustments that never came. Eric Decker had one in the third quarter on a square-in that Manning talked to him about, where the quarterback seemed to expect the wide receiver to cut harder toward the center of the field. Demaryius Thomas didn't come back as hard as Manning expected on a left-sideline route. In short: chemistry. There were plenty of positive plays, and Peyton wound up producing a decent comeback. But that eyes-closed, same-page stuff we saw all those years in Indy isn't there.


But you know what? None of this particularly explains why I have Manning ranked a season-low 15th on my QB list this week. No, that's all about the matchup. Johnathan Joseph is playing lockdown corner, and the Houston Texans' pass rush has been nasty. Things may get better at home in front of a crowd that's more respectful of Manning's no-huddle, but I'd rather not find out with him in my lineup.


5. DeSean Jackson's Contract Makes Him Good Again. Sadly, all the nasty things people said about Jackson last season were pretty much true. They said he was dogging it because he wanted a new contract, that he wouldn't go over the middle, that he was afraid of getting hit. And this summer, Jackson admitted it. He told ESPN's Lisa Salters, "I let it get to me, even though I tried not to let it. I was trying to protect myself from getting hurt. Now I'm just giving it all." In other words, woof-woof, he was a total dog

As Jeremy Maclin has struggled with a hip injury, Jackson looks like a different player. Gone is the dude who seemed to remember his helmet-to-helmet hit from Dunta Robinson the last time he effectively ran a crossing route (two years ago). He has shown a wider array of routes and effort in two games this season than he did all last year.


On Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens, the Philadelphia Eagles didn't send Jackson deep until there was a minute left in the third quarter. To that point, his six targets came on a variety of short outs and stops, a fade and a wide receiver screen. In 2011, he had only 79 targets where the pass traveled 20 yards or fewer in the air. So far this season, he already has 15 such targets, which projects to 120 for the season.


By the way, on that first deep ball Michael Vick threw Jackson's way? It squeezed into a window over the corner and next to the safety, and Jackson took a huge shot from Ed Reed but bounced right up.


Don't get me wrong: It's not as if the Eagles are sending D-Jax over the middle to get his clock cleaned. I didn't count a single crossing pattern on which Vick targeted a pass for Jackson in Week 2. Perhaps that's as it should be, since Jackson weighs 175 pounds soaking wet. But seeing his target length come down and his target total come up? That's the kind of transformation that Mike Wallace underwent last season, turning him into a far more complete receiver. Maybe it took many millions of dollars to get Jackson to make this metamorphosis, but I'm optimistic about what I've seen through two weeks.


Five In Brief:



6. Marshawn Lynch Is A Man. No rusher I've seen this season has made more out of less than Lynch. He doesn't do it by outsprinting you, that's for sure. Against the Dallas Cowboys last week, Lynch ran over some good run defenders. It would be a mistake to contend that the Seattle Seahawks' offensive line is some kind of road-grading, spectacular unit. It's fine, but Lynch just pounds people. He started slow in the first quarter Sunday, bottled up by what is normally a really tough Cowboys front seven. But beginning with the first play of the second half, Beast Mode was back. He took glancing blows from Marcus Spears and Sean Lee. He put his hand on Danny McCray's helmet and was like, "Uh, no!" and shoved him out of the way. He made Gerald Sensabaugh look silly in the open field. And he gained 16 yards before DeMarcus Ware finally crunched him. Lynch's other really big gainer -- a 36-yarder later that quarter -- was more a matter of finding a secondary seam and getting through to the second level untouched, but this dude was a punisher for the rest of the contest. For sure, Lynch is an emotional, momentum runner who can disappear when things aren't going his way, but when he's on, like he was in the second half against Dallas, he can carry your fantasy team. According to ProFootballFocus, Lynch is first in the NFL in missed tackles created through two weeks (14) and tied for fifth in average yards after contact (3.4).

7. Is The Lack Of An Elite QB Catching Up With Larry Fitzgerald? Of the 53 wideouts who had at least 10 targets after Week 2, Fitzgerald had the lowest target conversion rate, catching just five of the 13 passes thrown his way. Considering he hasn't been credited with a drop yet, let's not blame him, shall we? The Arizona Cardinals may be 2-0, but they haven't exactly been an offensive juggernaut. They're in the bottom five in rushing yards and passing yards per game, and their quarterbacks have completed 55.6 percent of their attempts while rarely throwing the deep ball, as zero of their attempts have traveled more than 30 yards in the air. Fitz has only three targets that have gone more than 20 yards and has caught none of them. So why do I still have Fitzgerald easily ensconced in my top 10 fantasy receivers this week? Because the small sample size is exaggerating the problem. Bill Belichick is noted for scheming away an opponent's top receiving weapon -- who can forget Antonio Gates' oh-fer in Week 2 of the 2011 season? -- and he gave safety and linebacker help to the corner guarding Fitz on almost every play. In Week 2, the lone target I saw when the defender in coverage didn't have help came when Fitzgerald got an end zone target, but Devin McCourty stripped the short pass away. That one might have been on Fitz. Otherwise, four targets for one catch and four yards? I'm yawning that one away. Kevin Kolb will play again against the Eagles on Sunday, and I admit that's a little gross. But considering how much single safety high I saw Philly play against the Ravens last week, there could be shots to Fitzgerald where he is single-covered. If that happens, I say he wins. Start him.


8. Fantasy-Altering Injury Pandemic (Part I). Let's not oversell it and say Ryan Tannehill played great in Week 2, but he looked athletic getting out of the pocket and making throws on the run, and Brian Hartline produced nine grabs for 111 yards. Sorry, Miami Dolphins fans, but I'm not ready to chalk that up to offensive greatness. The Raiders are decimated at cornerback. Top cover man Ronald Bartell is out until at least November after breaking his shoulder blade in Week 1, and Shawntae Spencer was hurt in the fourth quarter last week and is out at least a month with a sprained foot. The Raiders have signed a couple practice squad players, and beat reporters say the team is trying free safety Michael Huff out at corner. The Raiders have produced little pass rush -- two sacks in two games -- which tends to expose a bad secondary even further. The Steelers' passing game gets a big green light from me this week. I have Ben Roethlisberger a season-high 11th on my quarterback list, and Wallace and Antonio Brown are inside my top 20 wide receivers. Drawing a straight line between absentee starting corners and fantasy glory for opposing passers and receivers doesn't always work perfectly, but I like these odds.

9. Fantasy-Altering Injury Pandemic (Part II). Through two games, the Washington Redskins defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. That would be excusable Week 1 versus Drew Brees, but giving up 23 points to Sam Bradford is a red flag. I look at the personnel in that secondary, and I see flammable materials. DeAngelo Hall yaps a lot, but he is far beyond his prime, and nickel man Cedric Griffin hasn't been the same player since he tore both ACLs. (I like the other starting corner, Josh Wilson, just fine.) That's to say nothing of problems Washington has at safety, between SS Reed Doughty and FS Madieu Williams (remember him, Minnesota Vikings fans?). All this is to say that the season-ending injuries suffered last week by LB Brian Orakpo and DE Adam Carriker not only weaken what seemed to be a pretty decent front seven, but they also potentially expose a bad secondary. Those two injured players accounted for 14.5 of the Redskins' 41 sacks in 2011. Defenses will be able to focus more intently on Stephen Bowen at the defense's first level and Ryan Kerrigan at the second. I love A.J. Green every week but even more so Sunday. Plus, for the first time this season, I put BenJarvus Green-Ellis in my top 20 running backs.


10. Fantasy-Altering Injury Pandemic (Part III). As of this writing, Steven Jackson was questionable to play in Week 3 because of his injured groin, but if you're an S-Jax owner, I'm not sure you want him to go. Amazingly, when the St. Louis Rams take the field Sunday, they'll have backups starting at four of their five offensive line spots. Center Scott Wells broke his foot Week 1 and is out for the season; Robert Turner, previously a special teams guy, is now starting. Rookie LG Rokevious Watkins hurt his ankle in practice leading up to Week 2 and is out for the season; journeyman Quinn Ojinnaka will start for him. LT Rodger Saffold is out for at least four weeks with a ligament strain in his knee, meaning the immortal Wayne Hunter -- whom New York Jets fans ran out of town on a rail this summer -- will have Bradford's blind side against the Bears on Sunday. Moving into Hunter's place at right tackle is journeyman Barry Richardson. The only regular starter in his normal place is RG Harvey Dahl. Suffice to say that whatever momentum the Rams built in Week 2 seems unlikely to continue in Chicago. The Bears' defense looks great to me, and there isn't a single Ram I'd feel good about using.

 

[HacheMan]

Make a choice you can live with

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

Before I came to ESPN I was a reasonably successful screenwriter for film. And before I was a reasonably successful screenwriter for film, I was a consistently working sitcom writer. And before I was a consistently working sitcom writer, I was just a writer with a few credits and a member of the Writers Guild of America. It was through that I got to go see Phil Rosenthal speak.

You may not recognize the name, but you've definitely seen his work, as Phil is the creator and executive producer of "Everybody Loves Raymond," only one of the most successful sitcoms of all time. It was early during "Raymond's" run that I went to hear him speak -- this is many years ago -- and he told a story that has stuck with me to this day.


It's long, so I'm paraphrasing here, but if you'd like the full story, he tells it in his book "You're Lucky You're Funny: How Life Becomes a Sitcom." Good book and very funny. You'll enjoy. And if you don't care for my long intros, skip down to RG3 below to get started on the loves and hates. Or, conversely, if you don't care for my advice, stop reading when you hit RG3.


So young Phil gets his script for "Raymond" picked up to pilot (meaning they are going to shoot one sample episode) and if it goes well, it will get on the air. It's a huge opportunity. Getting a show picked up to air versus just getting a pilot shot can potentially mean many millions of dollars, and it puts your career in a whole different stratosphere. Many very talented writers work for years and never get a pilot picked up.


Just so you understand, the stakes are very, very large here.


So Phil gets a call from the network.


Network Guy: Who are you casting for the wife?
Phil: Honestly, I'm looking now. I'm looking all over the place.
Network Guy: Well, Les Moonves wants this one actress (Phil calls her "So-and-so"). You should cast her.
Phil: Oh, but I think she's completely wrong.
Network Guy: You didn't hear me. Les wants her. If you don't cast her, you don't have a show.


In case you don't know who Les Moonves is, just know he is very, very powerful among television executives. He runs CBS and everything that falls under CBS. I'm fairly certain he can legally have people killed. He's that powerful.


Anyways, Phil calls his agent to complain about So-and-so, a well-known actress.


Phil: She's totally, completely wrong for the show and will ruin the whole thing. What do I do?
Agent: I would cast her.


They go back and forth, but the agent makes the same point as Network Guy. "If you don't take her, you don't have a show."


Phil is fretting but the agent suggests he at least meet So-and-so. Phil agrees to do that.


So he meets her one morning. Later that same afternoon is an audition for the current three finalists (they haven't found Patricia Heaton yet) for the role of Raymond's wife. All the CBS execs, including Les, will be there as each actress comes in, separately, and reads for the part.


And Phil is told that after the three women audition, what was going to happen was this: Les Moonves would stand up and say "What about So-and-so?" And if Phil doesn't answer "I'm going to cast her," he's dead in the water.

From Phil's book:


"So I meet with So-and-so, and she's very nice. Lovely, pretty. And during the meeting I kind of talk her into reading. And she reads for me … and she's 10 times worse than I thought she would be for this part. So now I'm crying because this is the day I lose my show because I cannot do it. I cannot. We go to the CBS offices, I have a bowling ball in my stomach, my three actresses read, they leave and Les Moonves, right on cue, stands up and goes "What about So-and-so?"


Think about this moment. It is a moment anyone in television dreams of. You are there, with the network president, talking about your show. You are surrounded by your agent, all sorts of network executives and studio executives (who are the ones paying you and desperately want this show to go).
You have been told to say "I'm gonna cast her" or your show is dead. End of story. All your months and months of hard work and your future dreams down the tubes. Everyone is staring at you as the most powerful person in the business says directly to you … "What about So-and-so?"


Back to Phil's book:


"I say 'I love her. I think she's great. I've loved her in everything she's done. And I met with her today and she's beautiful and charming, and I fell in love with her. I wanted to marry her. But then she read for me, and I have to tell you, it's just not what I wrote. You know? I don't really buy them as a couple. Could she do it? … Maybe. But I also think, maybe, we could do better.'"


I wasn't there but I'll bet anything that there wasn't a sound in the room, except for maybe a gasp from a low-level studio executive. And as Phil waited there, having made the stand everyone told him not to, all eyes turned to Les Moonves.


Who then just shrugs. "It was just an idea."


I love that story. Love it. They didn't go with So-and-so, of course, and about a week later they found Patricia Heaton, who would win two Emmys for her portrayal of Debra Barone, and the show would become a massive critical and financial hit.
Quick addendum to that story: Once the show got picked up there was talk about bringing in a "showrunner," someone more experienced to help Phil, since he had never "run" a show before (being the main creative force behind every decision). But Les ended up letting Phil do it himself, unheard of in those days, because "He liked how [Phil] handled that thing with So-and-so."


There are a lot of important lessons in that story, for both life and fantasy football. About waiting to hear something directly from the horse's mouth, as it were; about perception and reality; about communication. About making an informed decision as opposed to a kneejerk one; about how the agendas of others can affect what you are told; and about how sometimes the way the message is delivered is just as important as the message itself.


But to me, the biggest lesson from that story is that Phil Rosenthal believed so strongly that this actress was wrong that he was willing to lose everything. He knew how important this moment was. He believed what he believed and he was willing to stick by those convictions, no matter what the consequences.

Fantasy owners should be more like Phil Rosenthal.


You see, Week 3 is crucial. Thanks to the great Mike Polikoff, who oversees our League Manager product, we don't have to just say Week 3 is critical. We have statistical proof based on ESPN standard leagues.


Teams that are 0-2 have made the playoffs 18.9 percent of the time.


And after Week 3?


Teams that are 1-2 have made the playoffs 27.02 percent of the time. Teams that are 0-3 have made the playoffs just 9.3 percent of the time.

Nine percent or 27 percent? If you have started slow, winning this week increases your odds 200 percent. Something to play for, no?


If you are 1-1, your odds are 40.04 percent. They jump to 51.71 percent at 2-1 and again, are 27 percent at 1-2. Almost a 100 percent increase if you win this week.


And if you are 2-0, you're looking at 61.33 percent, which jumps to 75.85 percent if you make 3-0 and again, drops to 51.71 percent if you wind up 2-1. A 50 percent swing is nothing to sneeze at.


This is a crucial week. And the person who cares the most about your team is … you. So make pickups and trades and, most importantly, set your lineup with conviction. I have Larry Fitzgerald outside my top 20 this week. I'll give reasons below but you think that's crazy? Then start him. Don't let me or anyone else talk you out of it.


I can't tell you how many times I see it. A guy says to me … "I really want to start this guy but you and everyone else have this other guy ranked higher … Arghhh. I don't know what to do." Well, maybe this will help: I've done all the research, watched the games, talked to as many folks as I can. But I can't tell the future.


As my good friend Joe Bryant says, "It's an oblong ball made of leather. Weird stuff is gonna happen." Remember this as you set your lineup this week and in every future week: I really want you to win.
But not as badly as you do.


Had Phil Rosenthal listened to his agent or any of the other executives, he probably would have cast So-and-so, the show would have been bad, it would have been canceled and his agent and all the other executives would have gone about their lives in exactly the same way as it was at the moment Phil said "No, I'm not doing it."


But Phil? Phil's life is very, very different because he chose to not listen to anyone else, to control his own destiny, and say "This is what I believe and I'll live with the results, whatever they may be."


Read this article, listen to me and whomever else you read/watch/download and then make your own bold call. This week more than ever. Go with what you think. You'll be happier with the outcome, no matter what. You drafted these players. You believe in them or you do not. I'm out on Chris Johnson. I think the Wes Welker thing is real, but delayed by Aaron Hernandez. I'm buying Brandon LaFell and Dennis Pitta. But that's me.


This is whom I love and hate this week. But at the end of the day, eh … it's just an idea.



Quarterbacks I love

Robert Griffin III, Redskins: He's the highest-scoring player in fantasy through two weeks and just like last week, I am the highest among our fellow rankers on him. I knew about the accuracy, I knew about Mike Shanahan wanting to throw, I knew about the socks. The unexpected part is how many designed runs they are calling, including around the goal line. We always say that rushing touchdowns, especially among quarterbacks, are hard to predict as they fluctuate from year to year. Cam was the one exception because last year, he was their goal-line back, and certainly is a big part of their goal-line plans this year too. RG3 is built very differently, of course, but whether it was an audible by him (they run a version of Baylor's offense which requires him to make calls at the line of scrimmage; read this terrific Grantland piece for more detail) or if it was called initially, both rushing touchdowns Griffin had last week were designed runs. In fact, many of his designed runs were out of the shotgun, and because of his arm, you have to respect the deep ball, so you can't load up.


Oh, and he's playing the Bengals. Who just gave up 322 to Brandon Weeden. Who is not, with all due respect, Robert Griffin III.


Tony Romo, Cowboys: I have decided to be more worried about a Bucs defense that has given up over 800 yards passing in two games than I am about last week's stinker at Seattle. Home opener for Tony and everyone's healthy. Oh, and I actually think the Tampa Bay run defense is pretty good too, meaning passing, passing and more passing. I have Romo at five, higher than all of my counterparts.


Alex Smith, 49ers: I am beginning to regret my pick of Mr. Smith in the Grantland Bad Quarterback league. Because he's, uh, not a bad quarterback. Back-to-back weeks of over 200 yards, two scores and zero interceptions. Did you know Alex Smith is currently tied for eighth-most points among fantasy quarterbacks in ESPN standard scoring? If you need a midtier guy or are in a pretty deep league, Smith is solid.


Shout-out to John Parolin and the team from ESPN Stats & Information who point out this (and many of the other stats used in this column): Smith has completed nearly 90 percent of his passes this season when targeting wide receivers, best in the NFL. In fact, not only does Smith have zero interceptions this season, he has also had only one pass broken up by a defender. The one disrupted pass accounts for 1.8 percent of his attempts, the lowest rate in the NFL. Against a Vikings team geared to stop the run, Smith is a very safe choice.


If you're desperate … Carson Palmer is second in the NFL in pass attempts so far, with 94 through two games. With Denarius Moore back and a belief they Raiders will be trailing by a lot in this game (just like the last two weeks), Palmer is gonna have to keep chucking it. … Remember how I said Alex Smith was tied for eighth among QBs in most fantasy points? One of the guys he's tied with is Matt Cassel, whose "fall way behind and put up junk-time stats" ways should continue against the Saints. … The Browns' defense is better than folks give them credit for, but when they send five or more defenders (which they do seventh-most), they have a +3 TD-Int differential, tied for league worst. And Ryan Fitzpatrick is 15-of-22 for 141 yards and two touchdowns against five-plus rushers so far this season.



Quarterbacks I hate




Peyton Manning, Broncos: Full disclosure: He was a hate Week 1 and went off. He was a love last week and bombed. So you either think I'm always turned around on Peyton or I'm due. Here's why I think I'm right on Peyton this week: Houston's defense. And Houston's offense. "They made Ryan Tannehill and Blaine Gabbert look bad, you say? Big deal." And that's fair. But we saw Tannehill play much better against the Raiders, and the Texans did exactly what a great defense should do against bad quarterbacks: They dominated. It's also about the Texans' offense, which I expect to run a lot (see below), slowing down the game and controlling the clock, keeping No. 18 on the sidelines.
Next Level tells us Peyton Manning is completing just half of his pass attempts inside the painted numbers this season after completing 71 percent of such throws from 2008 to 2010. I'm telling you I have him outside my top 12.


Matt Schaub, Texans: If I expect the Texans' offense to run a lot, what does that mean, class? That I expect them to throw only a little. See? Easy peasy. OK, fine. You want a bit more meat? How's this? The Texans have the most run-heavy offense in the NFL, passing on only 45.7 percent of plays from scrimmage (not including penalties). In the red zone? Even worse. Their 21.4 pass percentage is lowest in the league, and no other team passes on less than a third of red zone plays.



Running backs I love




C.J. Spiller, Bills: A super-obvious name. I was highest on him last week and I am again this week. If you could play only two running backs and you somehow had Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy and C.J. Spiller, am I really saying you sit McCoy? Damn skippy.


Michael Bush, Bears: I don't believe Matt Forte will play in this game. I don't believe Kate Middleton had no idea paparazzi were around. I don't believe the Rams can stop the run; they've allowed 6.09 yards per rush inside the tackles this year, worst in the league. I don't believe I'm actually gonna wait in line Friday for … a phone. I've had my current one over three years. I'm desperate. I don't believe I used the phrase "Damn skippy" in a column. But mostly, I don't believe anything in this game disrupts this trend: When Michael Bush has had 25 or more attempts in a game (five times), he has averaged 136 yards a game and has scored six touchdowns.


Reggie Bush, Dolphins: Have gotten a lot of "Is Reggie Bush for real?" tweets and Facebook posts. And very simply … yes. Six straight games with 100 yards from scrimmage, longest streak in the NFL.
Andre Brown, Giants: Think he looked good last week. Think the Panthers' run defense didn't. I know Ahmad Bradshaw isn't playing. Sometimes it's that simple. He's a low-end No. 2 this week.


Jamaal Charles, Chiefs: Many worried owners after last week, and rightfully so. But this is a total gut call. Think he has a nice game against the Saints (I mean, come on, they've given up five rushing touchdowns already), and for what it's worth, I own him in three leagues and am starting him in all three. And just tried to trade for him in a fourth. I believe.


If you're desperate … Mikel Leshoure is expected back for the Lions and according to our own Chris Mortensen, should get about 15 touches against the Titans' 30th-ranked run defense. … Jonathan Dwyer also has a nice matchup with Oakland. … You never know: Maybe they ease Ryan Mathews back a little and Jackie Battle gets a little work, or at least a goal-line carry.



Running backs I hate




Steven Jackson, Rams: Missed practice Wednesday, it's a poor matchup with Chicago, and the Rams' offensive line is banged up. He has yet to crack 90 total yards this season or score and I'm not sure that changes against the Bears, who have had extra time to prep for this game. Add in the possibility that Daryl Richardson might take some carries away to help keep Jackson healthy and he's a flex play this week.


Cedric Benson, Packers: Seahawks run defense is legit. How legit? Too legit to quit, that's how legit. Inside the tackles, Seattle is allowing just 2.17 yards per rush, best in the NFL, and that includes a game against DeMarco Murray. Considering Cedric Benson has only three rushes for 8 yards outside the numbers this season, I have him outside my top 20.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: Insert running back playing the 49ers here. I have him as a low-end No. 2 this week.


Michael Turner, Falcons: Think the traffic trouble he got into was because he just wanted to see what it felt like to go fast again? Too soon? I have nothing against Turner the man, but as a fantasy football play, I keep putting him on this list and keep looking smart, gimme touchdowns notwithstanding. The Chargers have faced Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson and have the No. 1-ranked rush defense so far. No thanks.


Chris Johnson, Titans: First, the good news. It's not all his fault. Love this one that John Parolin dug up: Even though Johnson has only 21 yards rushing this year, he has 23 yards after contact. Hang on, let me add this up … yes, that means he has negative 2 yards BEFORE CONTACT. In other words, his average point of contact is behind the line of scrimmage. So hey … it's not all him! Now the bad news: He still has to play with that offensive line, and the Lions' run defense is sixth-best in terms of fewest yards after contact allowed.



Wide receivers I love




Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant: Not worried. One bit. Calm down.


Miles Austin, Cowboys: The Buccaneers have allowed 210 receiving yards to slot receivers, most in the NFL. Miles Austin has 85 yards out of the slot in the first two games, ninth in the league, with an average target depth of 17.4 yards downfield on those throws (deepest among wide receivers with three slot targets).


Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs: Did you know that since 2010, only Rob Gronkowski and Calvin Johnson have more touchdown catches than Dwayne Bowe? OK, fine. Did you know that in the episode titled "Six Feet Under," Peter Boyle's character gives the same speech about mortality that he gave in "Taxi Driver"? Oh yeah, well did you know that I spent longer looking up "Raymond" trivia for this joke than I did some of the stats I've given? And do you know what the hell is wrong with me? No, seriously, I'm asking.


Pierre Garcon, Redskins: See Griffin III, Robert.


Brandon LaFell, Panthers: After seeing these two defenses, if I have a decent player on one of these teams, I'm doing it. LaFell is 11th in the NFL in total yards from scrimmage among wide receivers.


Danny Amendola, Rams: Was on the love list last week, so you know I believe. Rams will have to throw, Sam Bradford is locked in on Amendola as his No. 1, and while he won't have a game like he did last week, he's a solid flex or WR3 based on volume and the fact that St. Louis will be fairly one-dimensional in this game.


If you're desperate … I'm hanging tough on Randall Cobb, who can get outside the tackles on runs, unlike Cedric Benson. And they're gonna need to throw against the Seahawks. … Mike Williams was in this space last week so here he comes again; Fantasy Zombie. … I expect Ramses Barden to get more of the work vacated by Hakeem Nicks, but you'd have to be pretty desperate. … Randy Moss gets the Vikings this week. How bad do you think he wants to score?



Wide receivers I hate




Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals: I get it. One of the best in the NFL. But there are two concerns. One is Kevin Kolb. Kevin Kolb and Larry Fitzgerald have played together in 10 different games. Larry Fitzgerald has two touchdowns in that time. Two. And his last one from Kolb was Week 3 of last season. Second, Philly's defense is good. Really good. It leads the NFL in turnovers, opponent completion percentage and lowest yards per attempt for opponent. You think the Eagles know Kolb gets rattled when you put pressure on him? Yeah, me too. Fitzgerald has five receptions for 67 yards this year. That's not an average, that's his total. Given the lack of other offensive weapons they have, I expect the Eagles to do what they've been doing. Dating back to last year, over their past seven games, the Eagles have allowed seven passing touchdowns. Seven. In seven games. Larry will be great again, but not this week.


DeSean Jackson, Eagles: Speaking of this game and being legit, Patrick Peterson is all that and a "Raymond" boxed set. With Jeremy Maclin unlikely for this game (according to Chris Mortensen), I expect Peterson to be on Jackson most of the game. I have Jackson outside of my top 20, making him a flex play at best.


Andre Johnson, Texans: So you saw my note about Schaub and the how much running the Texans do, so you know where I'm going with this. But just so you get a full picture, at the start of Week 3, there are 59, count 'em, 59 players with more red zone targets than Andre Johnson's one. Including guys like Ronnie Brown, Clay Harbor, Anthony Fasano and Damian Williams. I know the talent is there but you can't tell me the production will be, especially against a solid Denver defense that just shut Julio Jones down. And the Texans don't have a Roddy White to pick up the slack. Which they don't care about. Because why, class? That's right. They run. Johnson is yet another big name I have outside my top 20, a flex play this week, nothing more.



Tight ends I love




Brandon Pettigrew, Lions: Often it takes a lot of time for a team to give up five scores to opposing tight ends. The Titans have managed it in two games. Second on the Lions in targets and top-10 in the NFL among tight ends, this is a pretty nice matchup.

Martellus Bennett, Giants: I liked him in the preseason, mentioning him in a few articles, but I'd be lying if I said I thought he'd be this good. But he's got the same number of targets this year as Jermichael Finley and Tony Gonzalez and one more than Rob Gronkowski. And with Hakeem Nicks out, Eli will lean on him even more.


Dennis Pitta, Ravens: Your NFL leader in TE targets and tied with Jimmy Graham for most receptions among tight ends. He's a big part of that offense and, off the field, Pitta is apparently very close friends with Joe Flacco. That never hurts. Just putting him in here because I've gotten a lot of questions about whether he's legit. He is.


If you're desperate … Scott Chandler has scored in two straight and they are using him more in the red zone with the injury to David Nelson. … Jermaine Gresham has 13 targets, tied for 11th among tight ends, but it's been a slow start. Redskins have given up the third-most points to opposing tight ends, including a score in each game. And their defense is reeling with the loss of Adam Carriker and Brian Orakpo.



Tight ends I hate




Jacob Tamme, Broncos: See Manning, Peyton.

Fred Davis, Redskins: I loved Fred Davis in the preseason. I was dead wrong. He is not a part of this offense in any significant way. And I don't see that changing with any regularity. I would drop him for Bennett, Pitta or Kyle Rudolph if any of them were still available.


Greg Olsen, Panthers: You'll find out soon enough why. But I'm avoiding for now, including tonight.



Defenses I love




Seattle Seahawks D/ST Obvious name, but including them because I wouldn't bench them just because the Packers are coming to town. They're really strong at home and Green Bay's offense still isn't 100 percent in sync.


If you're desperate … the Lions D/ST should be fine to use in a road game against the mess that is currently the Titans.



Defenses I hate




Washington Redskins D/ST: Bad secondary, and now they're gonna have real trouble generating a pass rush. Or did you not see Sam Bradford stand back there for an hour looking for receivers?


Buffalo Bills D/ST: The Browns aren't good, but Trent Richardson makes them competent, and I'm not convinced this is the top-10 cushy matchup a lot of other people think.
And that's all we have. Good luck in Week 3 with whatever you decide to do. Either way, there's a 100 percent chance I'll be here next week to lend an ear.

 

[HacheMan]

Flex rankings: Pats' Ridley up to No. 12

Eric Karabell

Print
Welcome back to Thursday, the start of the new week of football (Giants-Panthers tonight!) and also the day we reveal the weekly flex rankings. It's Week 3, and once again we compile a top 100 of the best running backs, wide receivers and tight ends so you can at least see one man's thoughts on comparing all of the options. Make your own decisions for all lineup spots; as with other information available to you on ESPN.com, this is merely a guide.



Need more advice? Check out the Week 3 staff rankings, which you can sort individually by expert, and perhaps your question was answered either in my Wednesday chat wrap or will be by my colleagues today or tomorrow. You can also find me on Twitter (I am @karabellespn).


Good luck in Week 3 and beyond!

1. Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Yes, it could have been a better Week 2, considering his backup scored twice, but look at the positive: Foster did well, too.
2. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
3. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: Don't worry about the touchdowns, and don't worry about Rashad Jennings.
5. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills: And don't worry about Fred Jackson, here. The way Spiller is playing, this rank is certainly warranted.
6. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys
7. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: He's averaging just 2.1 yards per carry. The theory on him is he'd either play great or be hurt. So far, it's neither.
8. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: Foster is the only fellow with more rushing attempts. This back and his back are fine.
9. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
10. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: If we ranked only off last week's results, then Jones wouldn't be here. So don't rank off last week's results.
11. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
12. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots: He has 39 rushing attempts so far. Perhaps that explains why the Pats' wide receivers aren't producing.
13. Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears: Well, he loves Jay Cutler. I guess that's more important than us loving him, right?
14. Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins: He says he'll lead the NFL in rushing, and so far, only Spiller leads him.
15. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants: With pal Hakeem Nicks out, don't assume Cruz goes off for 200 yards. The Panthers will be prepared for him.
16. Trent Richardson, RB, Browns: Evaluating a rookie following a poor Week 1 can be dangerous.
17. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
18. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints
19. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: Nice matchup, of course, but his knee woes are a concern.
20. Michael Bush, RB, Bears: Matt Forte is still not deemed out for this game, so make sure he is before trusting his backup. That said, Forte wouldn't rank this high if he did play.
21. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings: Wow, he's the highest-ranking Viking. And it makes perfect sense.
22. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: I'll predict about 1,100 rushing yards this season, which to some would be disappointing, I suppose.
23. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots: Awesome player, but the loss of Aaron Hernandez doesn't automatically make him a top-10 flex option.
24. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: We tried to tell you that some weeks White would outshine Jones; hopefully you believed us.
25. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals: Gotta admit he has looked better than I thought he would.
26. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers
27. Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers: Why can't Josh Freeman make Jackson a top-10 wide receiver? Well, he can.
28. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans: Check out what Matt Schaub has done so far. It's a running offense.
29. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers: Don't get burned by another Charger on late Sunday afternoon again. I do think Mathews plays, but will he get 20 touches? I don't think so.
30. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Don't blame Kevin Kolb. Fitzgerald should have more fun this week.
31. Darren Sproles, RB, Saints: Incredibly, he still does not have a rushing attempt. And only one wide receiver has more receptions.
32. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers
33. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins: Looked better to me in Week 2. Of course, all that matters is what the Shanahans think.
34. Marques Colston, WR, Saints
35. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: Saw him on free agency in one of my leagues and pounced immediately. He'll get his touchdowns.
36. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: Really, he's going to do this to all of us again? And now he's supposedly in shape, too. Ridiculous.
37. Greg Jennings, WR, Packers: Sounds like he could have played in Week 2. Might want to make a point in Week 3.
38. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos: Fantasy's top wide receiver so far. No reason to think it's a fluke, either.
39. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: And here's the guy Peyton used to love. Great resurrection here, and it's not a fluke.
40. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets
41. Brandon Lloyd, WR, Patriots: I doubt Tom Brady keeps overthrowing him deep. Buy low.
42. Kevin Smith, RB, Lions
43. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys
44. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots: Buy low here as well, but this is not a top-10 wide receiver anymore unless Bill Belichick is just messing with everyone.
45. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: Not a major knee concern here. The best is yet to come for Charles.
46. Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos
47. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys
48. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers
49. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: Make sure he plays before using him. Hard to believe he'll miss the game, but he's not a youngster anymore.
50. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons: Old players can still play!
51. Donald Brown, RB, Colts
52. Steve Johnson, WR, Bills
53. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers
54. Cedric Benson, RB, Packers: Seems like there was a ton of noise about his awful Week 1 performance, and little talk about his nice Week 2. Goes with the territory.
55. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs
56. Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers
57. Beanie Wells, RB, Cardinals
58. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles: Presumably Jeremy Maclin will sit, but that doesn't make Jackson a more attractive option.
59. Andre Brown, RB, Giants: Take your chances on him Thursday. Just don't expect Ahmad Bradshaw to miss significant time.
60. Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers
61. Danny Amendola, WR, Rams: We'd been discussing him for months, so don't act so surprised.
62. Peyton Hillis, RB, Chiefs
63. Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers: Double digits in fantasy scoring each week, with more points than Steve Smith each of those weeks.
64. Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins: Should play, and if he does, he should produce.
65. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions
66. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: Looks like more carries for him as Sproles gets none.
67. Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets
68. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers: Running out of time to make his mark as Rashard Mendenhall approaches healthy status.
69. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: Might miss Thursday's game, which is odd because he just played Sunday.
70. Ben Tate, RB, Texans: Frustrating. You'll never know the right weeks to use him when Foster is healthy.
71. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens: Quiet so far, but be patient.
72. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers
73. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints
74. Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers
75. Lance Moore, WR, Saints
76. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers: What a gut punch that was. I thought he was playing Sunday. I really did. So did all of the Chargers reporters. Don't get cute and use Dante Rosario this week, though.
77. Isaac Redman, RB, Steelers: I feel like in a month we'll wonder why we ever discussed this guy.
78. Eric Decker, WR, Broncos: Has only three fewer targets than teammate Thomas, by the way.
79. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions: The most overhyped, talked-about second-year guy without any NFL snaps, right? And still I like him.
80. Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens
81. Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders
82. Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings: Not a must-own, but if you have Peterson, he does come recommended.
83. Kenny Britt, WR, Titans: This rank could look ridiculously low if, as promised, he gets many snaps. This offense, however, has been a mess.
84. Nate Washington, WR, Titans
85. Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals: Not a good week for him, and not likely to improve this weekend.
86. Donnie Avery, WR, Colts
87. Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers: Seriously overrated, but still a top-10 option.
88. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons: Also overrated. The Falcons must know Turner is not the same, and still Rodgers isn't taking advantage.
89. Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams
90. Ramses Barden, WR, Giants: Should see plenty of action Thursday. You know that trusting rookies, as No. 92 on this list is, is dangerous, right?
91. Greg Little, WR, Browns: He scored in Week 2. There is upside here that few are going to initially cash in on.
92. Rueben Randle, WR, Giants
93. Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers
94. Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks
95. Dexter McCluster, RB/WR, Chiefs
96. Robert Meachem, WR, Chargers: Two games, two receptions. Too bad. Don't cut him yet, though.
97. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins
98. Andrew Hawkins, WR, Bengals: This Toledo product is certainly making a case to be owned in more leagues.
99. David Wilson, RB, Giants
100. Bilal Powell, RB, Jets
Others: Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins; Brent Celek, TE, Eagles; Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers; Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders; Mike Tolbert, RB, Panthers; Titus Young, WR, Lions; Nate Burleson, WR, Lions; Shaun Draughn, RB, Chiefs.

 

[HacheMan]

Four Downs: Jamaal Charles is baaaaack

Eric Karabell

The ol' saying goes that fantasy football owners shouldn't sit their studs, but it was hard to tell a week ago who Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles really was. After all, it's one thing to struggle, as Charles did in gaining three yards on six attempts in Week 2 against the Buffalo Bills. It's quite another to do so at least in some part due to left knee pain, especially when the player had ACL surgery on that knee about one calendar year prior. My concern on Charles, which led to more of a flex ranking than starter trust for me in Week 3 (the staff ranked him 21st at running back), was based on health and the threat of shared touches.




<offer>Well, we can all forget about health, sharing and performance issues now, as Charles exploded for 233 yards on 33 carries Sunday, including an electric 91-yard touchdown jaunt in the third quarter. Yes, the New Orleans Saints have been brutal defensively, and an injury to colleague Peyton Hillis opened the door for those extra touches, but Charles looked fast, spectacular and certainly healthy, adding to his bounty with six receptions for 55 yards. Concerns? Those owners who benched him can't get him back into Week 4 lineups fast enough.</offer>


The immediate impact of Charles' 34-point effort in standard leagues is that the player chosen fourth overall in 2011 drafts is worthy of a top-10 ranking again. The headline on last Tuesday's end-of-season rankings blog entry centered on Charles and Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson leaving my top-10 running backs, but one of them is heading right back in the top 10, and it's certainly not Johnson.


Each of the impediments which seemed to be preventing Charles from resuming stud status -- health and Hillis -- seems to be a non-issue now, though the former is always a risk, and we don't yet know how much time Hillis will miss because of his ankle injury. Regardless, one would think even when healthy, Hillis will play less of a role.

Trust Charles, trade for Charles, enjoy Charles, because after the Week 2 disappointment -- he was actually productive with 87 rushing yards in Week 1 -- we're looking at the fellow who has averaged more than 6 yards per rush in his career. I'll say he's on his way to roughly 1,200 rushing yards, another 300 through the air and seven scores, and that means top-10 and weekly RB1 use.


Yes, the "trust your studs" theory makes perfect sense today for Charles, Darren McFadden and Larry Fitzgerald, each of whom were certainly up for debate, but it still doesn't explain Johnson. If only Johnson's fantasy owners could get a 200-yard outburst; CJ2K has rushed for a mere 45 yards in three games, which Charles doubled on one glorious run Sunday. Perhaps one should only trust their studs if the players, like Charles, still are worthy of such a designation.


Second down: I was pleased to see Fitzgerald emerge with nine receptions for 114 yards and a touchdown because I had ranked him in my top 10 in Week 3, and he'll resume such a mark in my season rankings, as well. Yes, Fitzgerald has not been as productive with Kevin Kolb at quarterback as he has with John Skelton, but even citing this factor bothers me a bit. Neither quarterback is exactly Pro Bowl-caliber, and in neither case is there a large sample size. The sample size we do have: Fitzgerald hasn't fallen below 80 receptions, 1,000 yards or six touchdowns since 2006, and the quarterback play has been largely irrelevant. Cardinals running back Ryan Williams (13 rushes, 83 yards) also performed well Sunday in the rout of the Philadelphia Eagles, and will move ahead of disappointing Beanie Wells in my weekly and season rankings.

Third down: Alas, all is not perfect in the fantasy world, as the top two in rushing yards entering the week each left their respective games early. Bills stud C.J. Spiller (11 fantasy points) injured his left shoulder, and while early word is nothing is broken, like a clavicle or shoulder, he already has been declared out for Week 4. This opens the door for former starter/stud Fred Jackson to usurp the starting role again, perhaps by this week, lessening Spiller's long-term value. Jackson, who is down to 92 percent owned because of a sprained knee ligament suffered in Week 1, could start in Week 4. It's more likely, however, that third-stringer Tashard Choice will, and he'll be an interesting pickup this week after totaling 99 yards against Cleveland. Who knew the Bills were so deep? Meanwhile, Miami Dolphins running back Reggie Bush (61 rushing yards) hurt his left knee before halftime and did not return. It's premature to assume Bush will miss Week 4, but the Dolphins have two interesting youngsters in Daniel Thomas (69 rushing yards, TD) and Lamar Miller (48 yards) they need to look at eventually, so they aren't likely to rush him.


Fourth down: Two big stories came from the Detroit Lions' overtime loss, as running back Mikel Leshoure was successful in his NFL debut, rushing 26 times for 100 yards and a touchdown, while quarterback Matthew Stafford left late in the fourth quarter because of a strained leg muscle and did not return. Leshoure, who missed the first two weeks on suspension and was touted in this space several times, dominated the touches, so much that Kevin Smith didn't have any. In this devastating offense, Leshoure becomes a must-own, yet he's available in 65 percent of leagues. He'll poke his way into the 20-25 range among running backs in the end-of-season rankings Tuesday. As for Stafford, his Week 4 status is unknown, but veteran Shaun Hill played so well in relief, relying on stud Calvin Johnson (and a successful Hail Mary pass), that if Hill were to start Week 4 against the Minnesota Vikings, he'd likely crash the top 20. There's no quarterback controversy here, but Hill was a competent fantasy option filling in for Stafford in 2010, and would be again thanks to his weapons.

 

[HacheMan]

Stafford Stalled
Sunday was not an especially fun day for running backs (more on C.J. Spiller, Reggie Bush and Willis McGahee in a minute), but we begin this infirmary report with the most significant QB injury of the day: the one sustained by Matthew Stafford.

The Detroit QB (33-of-42, 278 yds, TD on Sunday) is headed for an MRI on Monday after leaving in the fourth quarter with what’s being called a glute/hamstring pull. No word as of Sunday night on Stafford’s timetable, but with the Lions’ bye approaching in Week 5, it’s easy to envision Shaun Hill getting a start next week against Minnesota – a scenario that would give Stafford three weeks to heal while only missing one game. Hill threw for 172 yards and two touchdowns in relief on Sunday.

Meanwhile, fantasy’s No. 1 RB through two weeks (C.J. Spiller) was carted off in the first quarter with a shoulder injury. It looked bad initially, but it appears that Spiller – who’s slated for more tests Monday – may only miss 1-2 weeks. That’s the good news. The bad news is that with Fred Jackson due back soon – potentially as early as next week – Buffalo could be headed for a tough-to-predict platoon once both backs are healthy. If Jackson isn't back for Week 4, Tashard Choice (20 rush, 91 yds) is worth a look as a one-week fill-in against New England.

Reggie Bush has a knee injury, but apparently it’s not a serious one. Bush sent fantasy owners into panic mode when he left in the second quarter, but a source told ProFootballTalk that Bush’s injury “doesn’t look bad.” As is the case for Stafford and Spiller, we should know more after Bush undergoes tests Monday. Daniel Thomas (19 rush, 69 yds, TD, lost fumble) and Lamar Miller (9 rush, 48 yds) would both be in line for more work if Bush misses time, but neither would offer much upside in a tough Week 4 matchup with Arizona.

More RB unpleasantness: Willis McGahee (12 rush, 36 yds) left with a rib injury and didn’t return. McGahee had his helmet off while the Broncos were in comeback mode, and it certainly didn’t look like he was trying to talk his way back into a close game. If McGahee does end up missing Week 4, the Denver backfield looks like somewhat of a mess for fantasy purposes. Presumably, Denver would deploy some combo of Ronnie Hillman (2 rush, 7 yds), Lance Ball (7 rush, 16 yds) and Knowshon Moreno (healthy inactive in Week 3). Given those options, I would look elsewhere for a replacement and hope that McGahee doesn't miss much time.

Follow me on Twitter: @MattStroup

Beanie Wells (8 rush, 18 yds) left with a toe injury. And he has indicated that it could be the dreaded turf toe. Ryan Williams (13 rush, 83 yds; 1 rec, 12 yds) finally brought some life to the Arizona backfield in Wells’ absence, and is worth adding if a frustrated owner dropped him in your league. Just keep in mind that Miami’s vicious run D awaits the Cardinals next week.

Austin Collie finally made his season debut, but was carted off with a seemingly serious (and potentially season-ending) knee injury. We’ve already seen what the second Indianapolis WR spot looks like without Collie, and though Donnie Avery has shown some potential, I’m not yet sold on Avery (2 rec, 28 yds on Sunday) as a reliable option outside of deeper leagues. It's worth noting that rookie T.Y. Hilton did have a big game Sunday (4 rec, 113 yds, TD), but I’m not convinced it’s the start of anything consistent. The Colts have a bye in Week 4.

Darrius Heyward-Bey (2-14-1) was knocked unconscious, and eventually carted off, after taking a scary shot to the head. DHB gave a thumbs-up to the crowd on his way off the field, but he did suffer a concussion and spent Sunday night at the hospital for observation. As of Sunday night there was no word on how much time he might miss. Denarius Moore (5-45-1) is the clear favorite for targets among Oakland wide receivers right now.

WR Injury Notes: Kenny Britt (6 rec, 55 yds) sprained his ankle late in Sunday’s win over the Lions, but doesn’t think it’s “too serious” … Julian Edelman left Sunday night’s game with a hand injury … Miles Austin (ribs) went to the locker room, but X-rays came back negative and he was able to return … FOX Sports’ Jay Glazer reported on Sunday morning that Marques Colston has been dealing with plantar fasciitis, but is “finally pain free.” Colston (3 rec, 40 yds) was quiet again on Sunday, but is an intriguing buy-low option … Julio Jones left early with a right hand injury, but returned and put up solid numbers (5-67-1) after X-rays came back negative … Laurent Robinson left with a concussion … Stephen Hill was knocked out with a hamstring injury … Leonard Hankerson (4 rec, 56 yds) started in place of Pierre Garcon (foot), but left with an apparently-not-too-serious back/neck injury.

TE Injuries: Jared Cook had his best game of the season (4-77-1), but is headed for an MRI on Monday after leaving with a shoulder injury … Jacob Tamme (3 rec, 31 yds) sustained a groin injury in the fourth quarter.

Defense/Offensive Line Injuries: Darrelle Revis left in the third quarter with what’s believed to be a torn ACL … Redskins LT Trent Williams was headed for an MRI after being carted off with a knee injury … The Cardinals lost DE Darnell Dockett – one of the key components of their rejuvenated defense – to a hamstring injury. Even if Dockett is out, I wouldn’t hesitate to start the Arizona D against Miami in Week 4.

Editor’s note: For a complete look at all the key happenings from Sunday, check out Chet Gresham’s The Morning After column on Monday. And on Tuesday, don’t miss Chris Wesseling’s Waiver Wired column, plus Evan Silva’s Season Pass Live Chat.

Other Injury Notes: On a day that Jamaal Charles went berserk (33 rush, 233 yds, TD; 6 rec, 55 yds), Peyton Hillis left with an ankle injury … In other Chiefs news, Dexter McCluster was helped off the field with what appeared to be a hyperextended elbow … Evan Royster left with a knee injury … Matt Schaub lost a chunk of his ear (yes, you read that correctly) after taking a huge hit in the third quarter, but somehow only missed one play. Schaub also had X-rays on his left (non-throwing shoulder), but said they came back "fine."

 

[HacheMan]

Charles Back In Charge Through the first two weeks Jamaal Charles totaled 90 rushing yards and in week two he disappointed many fantasy owners with a grand total of three yards rushing and a bruised knee, which once again reminded us that Charles’ season ended last year with a torn ACL in that same knee. So going into this week, even against the Saints poor defense, expectations were tempered.

But as we know now, our expectations should have been stoked. Charles went from 90 yards rushing through two weeks, to a league leading 323 yards rushing after Sunday's games were over.

Charles had a career high 33 carries and a career runner-up 233 yards rushing to go along with six receptions for 55 yards for a total of 288 yards, which is also a career high. So that’s a little more than last week.

This game was vintage JC Superstar. According to ESPN Stats and Info, “only four players in NFL history have had multiple games of 230+ rushing yards- Jim Brown (3), Jamaal Charles (2), Corey Dillon (2), O.J. Simpson (2).” That is some pretty good company to keep, well, as far as football ability goes.

If you bought low on Charles you are doing the Dougie while counting all the fake points you accrued. Congrats.


Game Balls

Torrey Smith - I’m not often swayed by the drama that producers manufacture around NFL games, but there was absolutely nothing artificial about Torrey Smith’s internal fortitude to play Sunday night and excel after losing his brother only hours before the game.

His 127 yards and two touchdown game was the second time he topped 125 yards a two touchdowns in a game. That’s a first for a Ravens receiver.

This game itself was marred by controversial calls and fighting, but each time Smith caught the ball, it seemed like a completely different game, between just him and his brother.



Jake Locker - After a slow start to his sophomore season, Locker broke out with a career day against the Lions in an absolutely wacko game. The two teams scored 46 points in the fourth quarter alone!

The promise of Locker was a strong arm that could stretch the field with the Titans young pass catchers, but after two weeks many were worried that his promise wasn’t going to be kept. But this week we saw what he could do. His two touchdown passes went over 60 yards each and he still had a nice 69% completion percentage.


A.J. Green - Green continues to show that he’s very much in the elite wide receiver conversation. This week he had nine receptions for 183 yards and a touchdown. That puts him at 311 yards and two touchdowns on the season, just behind Calvin Johnson for the league lead in yardage.

If Andy Dalton can continue to improve, this could be a special year for the ultra-talented Green.


Maurice Jones-Drew - Mr. Jones-Drew and me have never told each other fairy tales or looked into the future, but if we did, I think all his tales and predictions would have been a little more spot-on than mine. This guy is never going to slow down.

He ran for 177 yards and a touchdown and is only second in rushing yards to Jamaal Charles on the season. That’s after holding out and missing all of preseason.

Much like last season, the Jaguars are going to have to ride him into the dirt (I wonder why he held out?) but he’s one of the few backs in the league able to take the beating and still put up big numbers.


Christian Ponder/Kyle Rudolph/Percy Harvin – So the Vikings took on the 49ers who just beat the Packers and the Lions, i.e. Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. So what do you expect out of Christian Ponder? The fifth best fantasy game of the week? Stop lying!

Of course that’s exactly what he did as he threw for two touchdowns and ran for another in the process of upsetting San Francisco. I’m sure many of you had Ponder in the “who will be the first player to rush for a touchdown against the 49er’s?” pool.

His two main pass catchers, Harvin and Rudolph combined for 14 receptions for 125 yards and two touchdowns. Harvin leads the league in receptions and Rudolph just caught his third touchdown in as many games.

The Vikings have a lot to be thankful for right now. Ponder, Harvin, and Rudolph are 24, 24, and 22 respectively. There’s a lot of good football to come.


Matt Ryan - It seems that Matt Ryan’s ascent into the elite is happening right before our eyes. This week he dismantled the Chargers with ease, completing 30 of 40 for 275 yards and three touchdowns.

He leads the league in passer rating and is tied for the lead in passing touchdowns with eight. His completion percentage also is tops in the league at 72 percent.

He’s not putting up the crazy numbers other quarterbacks put up last season, but the Falcons defense is keeping him from needing to throw all game long.


Mikel Leshoure - Well, I guess we know now. It took him over a year, but he finally made it into a regular season NFL game and managed to rush for 100 yards and a touchdown and catch four passes (on four targets) for 34 yards.

There’s no doubt he is the guy now, especially after it looked like he would only have about 15 touches and he ended the day with 30.


Darren McFadden - Mr. MacDaddyFadden finally broke out with 113 yards rushing and a touchdown on 18 carries against the Steelers. It was only a matter of time of course, but it was nice seeing him do it against a good defense.


Larry Fitzgerald - The Arizona Cardinal’s defense is getting some good press right now as they’ve helped lead the Cardinals to a 3-0 start, but since I’m a fantasy football nerd with offensive blinders on, it’s been hard to give much praise in this column to them, but thankfully Fitzgerald had his coming out party for 2012 with nine receptions (on nine targets) for 114 yards and a touchdown.

He’s still one of the best in the game, but to see Kevin Kolb get him those nine targets where Fitz could catch all nine, is a nice change of pace for the ex-Eagle.


Ben Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger threw the ball an amazing 49 times and targeted Miller, Wallace and Brown all in the double-digits. The Steelers have no run game to speak of and Roethlisberger is putting together some good numbers so far this year. He is tied for third in passing yards, tied for first in touchdowns, and second in passer rating.

If the Steelers defense continues to miss key players and their offense can’t get the run game going, Roethlisberger could put together a nice fantasy season.



Sell High

Alfred Morris - I may be beating a live horse here, but I just don’t see Morris keeping up his fantasy relevancy with Shanahan calling the shots and him not having any presence in the passing game, when the Redskins defense is going to keep the Redskins offense in pass mode.

Michael Turner - Sell him and sell him now. He got into the end zone again, but that is the only way he will ever help your team out this season. Hey, I may be wrong, but he just looks like he’s laboring. His upside is just too low for him to be on your team every week.

Heath Miller - I really have no idea if you can sell him high or not, but four touchdowns in three games is pretty spiffy. Yes, the Steelers are going to throw more this season, but Miller isn’t an offensive talent the likes of Rudolph, Cook, Olsen and Davis.


Buy Low

Fred Davis - Did his seven catch game for 90 yards and no touchdowns raise his stock too high? Probably not, but you can find out. I don’t want to give away the farm for him, because I’m not totally sold that he’s going to flourish with Griffin, but he leads the team in targets and if they do get on the same page, they could do some special things.

Percy Harvin - I’m going to tell you to buy low on the receiver who leads the league in receptions because I still don’t think people realize just how good he is.

If you aren’t scoring touchdowns in fantasy football, people are ready to upgrade to someone who is and yesterday, because that’s when they scored the touchdowns!

Ryan Mathews - Much like above, people want to see results fast. Mathews was a bit rusty his first game back, but still managed to put up 76 total yards and catch five passes on eight targets. I’d get him now.

<!--RW-->Target Tease

I do the AFC/NFC Target Watch later in the week, but I figured I could give you a little taste before we got there with some interesting target numbers from Week 3.

0 – Number of touches and targets Kevin Smith saw in week three.

1 – Number of targets Tony Romo and Tim Tebow had. Romo caught his.

2 – Number of targets Coby Fleener had with zero receptions compared to Dwayne Allen’s six targets for five receptions.

3 – Number of targets and receptions Nate Washington had with his 112 yards and a touchdown.

4 – Number of targets and receptions Jared Cook had with his 77 yards and a touchdown.

5 – Number of targets and rushing attempts Joique Bell had compared to Kevin Smith’s zero.

6 – Number of targets Kyle Rudolph had for his five receptions, two that went for touchdowns.

7 – Number of targets Stephen Hill had to go with his zero receptions.

8 – Number of targets Jamaal Charles had to go with his career high 33 rushing attempts.

9 – Number of targets Brian Hartline had for his one reception.

10 – Number of targets for Torrey Smith.

11 – Number of targets Damaris Johnson had in place of Jeremy Maclin.

12 – Number of targets for both Nate Burleson and Calvin Johnson in which both had 10 receptions and scored a touchdown, but Johnson totaled 164 yards to Burleson’s 69.

13 – Target number that’s so unlucky, not one receiver had it.

14 – Number of targets for Santonio Holmes who caught nine for 147 yards, his highest since 12/6/09.

15 – Number of targets for Reggie Wayne, which moves him to the league lead for the year with 40.

16 – Number of targets for Dwayne Bowe, his highest number since week 10 of 2010.



Early Waiver Look

QB: Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton

RB: Pierre Thomas, Bilal Powell, Lamar Miller, Daniel Thomas, Tashard Choice, Ryan Williams, Joique Bell

WR: Julian Edelman, Damaris Johnson, Brandon Stokley

TE: Fred Davis, Joel Dreessen, Heath Miller, Jordan Cameron

D/ST: Seattle, Arizona, N.Y. Giants, Dallas



Committee Time

Saints - Darren Sproles actually ran the ball for the first time this week, seven whole times for 62 yards. But he only had two targets and didn’t catch either. This is bizarre world.

Pierre Thomas actually led the Saints running backs in receiving with four receptions on six targets for 55 yards. He also ran the ball six times, but for only 11 yards.

Mark Ingram followed up his fantasy relevant game with a display of irrelevance as he only rushed five times for 11 yards with no passing targets.

This doesn’t make too much sense, but I have a feeling this won’t be the norm. We are seeing more Pierre Thomas and I could see him garnering more looks as the season progresses.


Redskins - Alfred Morris had 17 carries for 78 yards and a touchdown and one target without a catch. Evan Royster ran the ball twice for 21 yards and had four targets, which he caught two of for 13 yards. Then we had a sighting of our old pal Roy Helu, who had three targets that he caught all of for twenty yards.

Morris should remain the early down back with Helu and Royster coming in on passing downs.


Texans – Arian Foster led the way with 25 carries for 105 yards, but disappointingly only had one target, which amazingly he caught for a touchdown. Ben Tate had eight carries for 26 yards and had no targets. He also lost a fumble which Kubiak abhors.


Chiefs - Jamaal Charles.


Jets - Shonn Greene had 19 carries for 40 yards with two receptions on two targets for nine yards. Bilal Powell had 10 carries for 45 yards and two receptions on five targets for 24 yards.

It seems that we are getting closer to a changing of the guard here.


Dolphins - With Reggie Bush going down, we saw a lot of Daniel Thomas. He had 19 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown, while Lamar Miller had nine carries for 48 yards. Bush’s injury doesn’t seem to be a long term problem, but if it is, I’d have trouble starting Thomas, even if he was the main guy. Lamar Miller has so much more upside that I’d throw him on my team first.



Awards

Fantasy MVP of Week 3: Jamaal Charles, duh.

Fantasy Breakout Player of Week 3: Jamaal Charles, duh.

Fantasy Rookie of Week 3: Mikel Leshoure – Yeah, I know he’s not a rookie anymore, but this is his first NFL game, so I’m going to be lenient and give him the big cash award.

Fantasy Disappointment of Week 3: Tony Romo – The Bucs had just given up a bazillion passing yards to Eli Manning and then Romo lays an egg.

Fantasy Fluke of Week 3: Cecil Shorts, his game winning 80 yard touchdown was on his second target of the day and Gabbert’s fourth completion of the fourth quarter.



Twitter Talk

@billbarnwell of Grantland.com -- Does Belichick think he gets bonus points if he scores with Michael Hoomanawanui setting up Brandon Bolden?

‏@evansilva of Rotoworld -- Chris Johnson improved his yards-per-carry average on the season from 1.10 to 1.36 today.

@BillPlaschke -- As If Refs Credibility Wasn't Already Shot: Raiders just played an entire half without a penalty

@CaptainComeback of Cold Hard Football Facts -- Week 3 was 73rd time Manning/Brady/Roethlisberger/Brees have played in same NFL week. First time they all lost.

@BrandonSpikes55 of the New England Patriots -- Can someone please tell these f&^%ing zebras foot locker called and they’re needed Back at work !!!!

@SC_DougFarrar of Yahoo Sports -- Just saw the Romo-to-Ogletree potential TD prevented by the ref throwing his hat on the turf and Ogletree slipping on it. Bucs fan, maybe?

@PeytonsHead -- These replacement refs are awful. Oh, that was in our favor? Good job, good effort!



Stats and What Not

The Ravens win was their first ever against the Patriots in the regular season.

The New Orleans Saints are 0-3 and the teams that have beaten them have yet to beat another team.

Kevin Kolb, Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert are the only starting quarterbacks not to have thrown an interception this season.

Peyton Manning now holds the record for most 300 yard passing games with 64, beating Dan Marino.

The Patriots had gone 145 games without having a losing record, which is the NFL record.

The Cardinals are 3-0 for the first time since 1974.

Larry Fitzgerald is the youngest player in history to reach 700 receptions at the age of 29.

Drew Brees has 46 straight games with a touchdown pass. The record is 47 games by Johnny Unitas.