Packers & Lions should make noise in the NFC for years to.come.
(4) Buccaneers at (3) Lions
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: DET -6.5 (48.5)What to watch for: Fresh off winning their first playoff game in 32 years, the Lions will host their first NFC divisional round appearance since the 1991 playoffs. These teams will clash for the second time this season after Detroit won the regular-season matchup 20-6 at Tampa Bay. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield and Lions quarterback Jared Goff have both revitalized their careers in new settings as former No. 1 overall picks and will look to carry their respective teams with their strong play. -- Eric Woodyard
Bold prediction: The Bucs will hold the Lions under 20 points ... and win. Tampa Bay will once again be the underdog, Detroit's going to be as hostile a setting as it gets and coach Todd Bowles hasn't beaten Goff since 2019, when Goff was with the Rams and Bowles was the Bucs' defensive coordinator. But the defense found its footing last week in one of Bowles' best-called games, and Mayfield's physically doing a lot better with those rib and ankle injuries. -- Jenna Laine
Stat to know: The Buccaneers' defense has blitzed on 41% of dropbacks by opposing quarterbacks, the third-highest rate in the NFL. They could look to dial that up even more against Goff, who has seven turnovers when blitzed this season, tied for second most in the NFL.
Matchup X factor: Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. He is on a three-game multisack streak and is coming off a 33% pass rush win rate game in the wild-card round (more than double his regular-season rate). The Lions' pass defense is their weakness, but if Hutchinson gets going, the Lions could pull away fast. -- Walder
Game-plan key: Will we see Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and Buccaneers corner Carlton Davis III in one-on-one man coverage matchups? St. Brown had 124 yards against Tampa Bay in Week 6, so the Bucs need a plan here -- potentially with Davis in coverage and safety help spinning down late. Read more at ESPN+. -- Bowen
Officiating note: Referee Bill Vinovich's regular-season crew is usually one of the stingiest in the NFL. In 2023, however, it averaged 13.4 flags per game, tied for the seventh fewest in the NFL. When the Lions and Bucs met in the regular season, the teams combined for 10 flags -- five apiece. -- Seifert
Betting nugget: Both teams are 12-6 ATS, which is tied for the second-best mark behind the Raiders (12-5 ATS). Unders are 12-6 in Buccaneers games, while overs are 11-7 in Lions games.
Moody's pick: Lions 28, Buccaneers 21
Walder's pick: Lions 34, Buccaneers 17
FPI prediction: DET, 62.5% (by an average of 4.5 points)
(3) Chiefs at (2) Bills
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BUF -2.5 (45.5)What to watch for: For the first time in this rivalry between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, the Chiefs are coming to Orchard Park for the postseason. The quarterbacks have met six times, with the Bills winning three of the four regular-season meetings, and the Chiefs taking both postseason games (2020 and 2021). The difference for the Bills in the regular and postseason matchups is the defensive success. In the regular season, the Bills have held the Chiefs to 20.8 points per game and produced nine takeaways, but in the playoffs, Kansas City has averaged 40 points and had only one turnover. There will be a big test ahead for a Bills defense dealing with a variety of injuries. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Bold prediction: Mahomes and Allen will combine for at least six TD passes. These two always put on a show when they play, particularly in the postseason. Mahomes and Allen combined for five scoring passes in the AFC Championship Game after the 2020 season and seven in the divisional round the next season. The conditions will be less than ideal, but that hasn't stopped them before. -- Adam Teicher
Stat to know: One area that might differentiate the Bills from the Chiefs could be winning the turnover battle. The Bills forced 30 turnovers this season, the second most in the NFL (the Ravens and Giants forced 31 each). The Chiefs forced 17 turnovers, the 27th most in the NFL.
Matchup X factor: The Bills' cornerback health. Taron Johnson (concussion), Rasul Douglas (knee) and Christian Benford (knee) are all banged up. While Buffalo looks like the better team on paper, a depleted secondary against Mahomes seems like a dangerous combination. -- Walder
Game-plan key: In the Week 14 matchup between these teams, Bills running back James Cook had 83 receiving yards. Look for the Bills to get Cook involved in the passing game again with backfield releases and screens. And look for Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton to be key in limiting those plays. Read more at ESPN+. -- Bowen
Officiating note: Shawn Hochuli is one of the NFL's more active referees. During the regular season, he threw an NFL-high 14 flags for roughing the passer, five more than the next-closest referee. Since becoming a referee in 2018, he has led the league with 61 such flags. That could prove interesting, as Allen has grown adept at drawing roughing the passer fouls. He drew six in 2023, the most in the league. Mahomes drew only one. -- Seifert
Betting nugget: Mahomes is 10-5 ATS in his playoff career, including 7-2 ATS when he is not at least a seven-point favorite. Allen is 3-6 ATS in his playoff career.
Moody's pick: Bills 31, Chiefs 27
Walder's pick: Chiefs 32, Bills 31
FPI prediction: BUF, 56.6% (by an average of 2.3 points)
| Sunday, Jan 28, 2024 - NFL Football Game | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 03:00 PM | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +11 | -115 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| San Francisco 49ers | -11 | -105 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 03:00 PM | Detroit Lions | +7 | -105 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| San Francisco 49ers | -7 | -115 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 06:30 PM | Kansas City Chiefs | +3 | -107 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Baltimore Ravens | -3 | -113 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 06:30 PM | Buffalo Bills | +3 | -101 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Baltimore Ravens | -3 | -119 |
