Lions drawing bets as favorite vs. Bucs, for Super Bowl run.
The Detroit Lions have had a miserable history in the playoffs. But these aren't your dad's Lions, and it's showing in the betting markets.According to ESPN Stats & Information, since Nevada legalized sports betting in 1949, Detroit's consensus 6.5-point favorite status for Sunday's game against Tampa Bay is its largest ever in the playoffs. It surpasses the Lions as a 4-point favorite against the Dallas Cowboys in the 1970 divisional round, a game Detroit would lose 5-0.
Although their 6.5-point favorite role trails Baltimore and San Francisco each giving 9.5 points in their divisional round matchups, it's been a long time coming for the Lions.
"They haven't been favorites in the playoffs for sure, but they haven't been in the playoffs that much," DraftKings director of race and sports operations Johnny Avello told ESPN. "The team has just not had many opportunities."
This is the first time in franchise history that the Lions have hosted two playoff games in a single postseason, and should they win, it will mark the first time since 1957 that they won multiple playoff games. They are one of four NFL franchises to never appear in a Super Bowl, along with fellow divisional round contender Houston, eliminated Cleveland and Jacksonville, which missed the postseason after a 1-5 finish.
Like the Browns in the wild-card round, the Lions are public betting darlings as fans root for the team to finally find success in January.
At BetMGM, Lions -6.5 has attracted 63% of the bets and 71% of the handle, with the moneyline (-275) bringing in 47% of the bets and 73% of the handle. At PointsBet, Detroit is taking 81% of the moneyline handle, which the sportsbook notes is by far the most of any team this weekend. The action pushed the line a half-point from the consensus opener of -6.
The state of Michigan is driving betting action on the Lions across the country. Caesars reports that Detroit is the most uneven moneyline and spread percentage-wise by handle and bets -- both in Michigan and nationwide.
At ESPN BET in Michigan, Lions -6.5 is attracting 73.36% of the bets compared to 49.85% everywhere else; the moneyline has seen 84.73% of the bets in Michigan compared to 66.74% in all the other states.
Michigan bettors believe the Lions can go all the way and are putting their money behind it in force. At DraftKings in Michigan, since Sunday, Detroit has been the most-bet team to win the Super Bowl by five times the handle and four times the bets of any other team; the Lions are the most-bet team to win the NFC by 10 times the handle and three times the bets.
It all adds up to huge liability on the Lions for the sportsbooks.
"The Lions drive a lot of interest from bettors in Michigan," said BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini. "Detroit playing more games is good for the sportsbook, but eventually we need the Lions to lose."
Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said that while the Lions winning the Super Bowl would represent a "small winner" for the book, their winning the conference would be a "medium liability." The same goes for PointsBet, which reports that Detroit is its biggest NFC champion liability.
One aspect influencing the public's confidence and the books' deference to the Lions is the enormous coaching presence from the sideline. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Detroit is 35-17 against the spread in three seasons under Dan Campbell, the best record in the NFL in that span. Campbell is 39-25 ATS in his career -- including 12 games as the Miami Dolphins interim coach in 2015 -- which is the best mark of any coach since the 1970 merger with at least three seasons.
"They operate as a collective, not as individuals, and I think it suits them and the coach," Pullen said. "The coach is the biggest star of the team. ... That works, I think, to their benefit."
Game day
Ravens' Lamar Jackson enters playoffs, proving ground vs. Texans.
OWINGS MILLS, Md. -- After the Baltimore Ravens clinched the AFC's No. 1 seed on New Year's Eve, players joyfully commemorated the season by taking group pictures while holding a newspaper whose headline read "AFC's Best." They let loose in the locker room by dancing in the middle of the floor, where even coach John Harbaugh showed off his moves.Amid the celebratory chaos, quarterback Lamar Jackson barely cracked a smile. He dapped up teammates with a stoic look on his face, which has become his usual postgame demeanor this season.
We've got more to do," he told them.
Jackson understands he is entering his proving ground -- a postseason that will either change the narrative from his first six seasons in the NFL or continue to underscore his most discussed shortcoming.
Few quarterbacks have dominated in the regular season and then disappointed in the postseason like Jackson. At 27, he's in line to become the youngest two-time NFL Most Valuable Player since the merger (edging the Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes by just over nine months), and he's won more regular-season games (58) than any quarterback at his age.
But Jackson has struggled at the most critical part of the season, going 1-3 in the playoffs with four total touchdowns and seven turnovers. The only quarterback to win more than 50 games in his first six seasons and have fewer postseason victories is Andy Dalton (0-4).
When the Ravens host the Houston Texans in the divisional round Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN), Jackson begins the most important stretch of his career.
"Lamar's always had a single-minded focus, but I don't think I've ever seen it quite like this," Harbaugh said. "He's been that way since the offseason when we talked, since he came to OTAs [organized team activities], since training camp, [he's been] one day at a time, locked in. That's kind of how he's approached it. It's been reflected in how he's practiced and how he's played."
Jackson has essentially gotten everything he wanted over the past year, although it wasn't pretty at the beginning. After a protracted standoff that featured Jackson asking for a trade and the Ravens granting him permission to seek one, the sides came together on a five-year, $260 million contract that made him one of the highest-paid players in league history. He got a playcaller in offensive coordinator Todd Monken to help him elevate his passing game. He received an improved supporting cast at wide receiver -- including first-round pick Zay Flowers and free agent Odell Beckham Jr. -- to lessen the burden on his shoulders.
The last unchecked box is hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy, which is not lost on anyone around Jackson.
WHEN JACKSON DISCUSSES an adjustment on a route, Beckham knows how the talk is likely going to end.
"I'm trying to win a Bowl," Jackson tells him.
When Jackson hangs out with teammates, offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley knows it's only a matter of time before Jackson blurts it out.
"I just want a Super Bowl," Jackson says.
In the practices leading up to the 56-19 victory over the Miami Dolphins, Jackson told teammates: "Make it to February."
"He won't be satisfied until we get a Super Bowl," Stanley said, "so I know what I'm getting in my quarterback."
Jackson's former quarterbacks coach, James Urban, once described Jackson's fixation with the Super Bowl as an obsession. Others see it more as a personal mission.
"I don't think Lamar feels that it's his way to shut the haters up," said Robert Griffin III, an ESPN analyst who was a Ravens backup quarterback for the first three seasons of Jackson's career. "I think it's his way to say 'I told you so.' It's more self-validation than it is to rub in the face of his haters.
"Do you want me to play receiver? I told you I was a quarterback. You want to call me a running back? I told you I was a quarterback. You want to say I shouldn't have been drafted in the top 10 or been the first pick, I told you I was going to bring them a Super Bowl."
The previous time Jackson led Baltimore to a No. 1 seed, the rallying cry was "Big truss." This year, Jackson's mantra is "Locked in."
Jackson has gained a different appreciation for the opportunity after missing the past two postseasons with season-ending injuries. He's also played his best against the best, recording 10 victories against teams that finished with winning records -- the most by a quarterback in a single season since at least 2000.
The changes in Jackson captured the attention of Hall of Fame middle linebacker Ray Lewis, the only player who was on the Ravens' two Super Bowl championship teams.
"I'm putting all my chips on 8," Lewis said when asked if Jackson can win a Super Bowl. "I'm watching his maturity, I'm watching his patience in the pocket.
"But I'll also tell you: 8 has a different look in his eye."
IN JANUARY 2021, the last time Jackson played in a postseason game, he did something he had never done before.
After staring down tight end Mark Andrews, Jackson was picked off in the red zone for the first time in his 41-start career. Buffalo Bills cornerback Taron Johnson returned Jackson's interception 101 yards for a touchdown in a 17-3 loss at Buffalo.
This is the most puzzling aspect of Jackson's career. In the regular season, Jackson's 65.0 Total QBR is the seventh best in the NFL since 2018. In the playoffs, his 41.5 QBR is the second worst among quarterbacks with multiple postseason starts over that same span -- topping only Mitchell Trubisky.
This season has been slightly different. When Jackson was a unanimous-choice MVP in 2019, he led the NFL in touchdown passes (36) and broke the rushing record for QBs (1,206). This year, he's outside the top 10 in passing yards (3,678 was 15th) and TD passes (24 was 11th). He also didn't rush for 1,000 yards (821). Yet the Ravens (13-4) had their second-highest win total.
Regular-season success not translating
Lamar Jackson is finishing his sixth season. He won 45 games in his first five, but only one playoff win. Here are QBs who had at least 50 wins in their first five seasons with no more than one playoff win.| PLAYER | R-S WINS | PLAYOFF RECORD |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 56 | 1-4 |
| Andy Dalton | 50 | 0-4 |
| Lamar Jackson | 45 | 1-3 |
| Dak Prescott | 42 | 1-3 |
| Peyton Manning | 42 | 0-3 |
The fact that they've been able to win with some of the numbers he's put up," Griffin explained, "that to me is Lamar saying, 'I'm OK with managing this game if I have to. I don't need to run for 100 or throw for 300. If I throw for 150 and run for 20 and we win the game, that's all that matters.
"That's where he's had the biggest growth. He now understands that sometimes the dynamic play is taking the checkdown. Sometimes the dynamic play is throwing the ball away, living to fight another day."
Jackson knew he needed better targets in the passing game. According to Griffin, Jackson remarked a few years ago how there was a clear difference when throwing the ball to the likes of Keenan Allen in the Pro Bowl. This past offseason, Jackson asked Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta if the team could add free agents Beckham or DeAndre Hopkins, and Baltimore responded by signing Beckham to a one-year, $15 million deal.
During past postseasons, Jackson primarily threw to Marquise Brown, Willie Snead IV and Miles Boykin. Now, he's passing the ball to Beckham, Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor, all of whom were first-round picks.
"Oh, Lamar can't win in the playoffs. Oh, Lamar only got one playoff win. OK, great," Lewis said. "But maybe we didn't have a good enough team to go ahead and do that.
"That's why I think as his big brother, I'm throwing him the advice, 'Bro, we must win. Not Lamar must win.'"
Allen runs over people, flexes is arms, and then flops like a Dookie to buy calls. It is pretty disgusting to watch. Mahomes flops too, but he doesn't run over people and flex his muscles
On the 49ers today @9.5 and Bucs tomorrow bought to +7 -125
Couldn’t figure that Houston game...it's a lot to ask of a rookie and the wind factor.
Under was tempting..I could see Baltimore rolling them. Lamar off a two week rest and what happened with the titans a few years ago kept me away..
IDK why i feel like Houston backdoors.
Couldn’t figure that Houston game...it's a lot to ask of a rookie and the wind factor.
Under was tempting..I could see Baltimore rolling them. Lamar off a two week rest and what happened with the titans a few years ago kept me away..
IDK why i feel like Houston backdoors.
