Playbook THU Games
Texas State over TROY by 20
These games are called “Fun Belt” but for the Troy Trojans there hasn’t been a lot of joy this season, sitting 1-4 after a terrible 0-3 start that saw them lose the stats battle in each game. But Mr. Brightside has this killer observation; Troy is 1-1 in its last two games and won the stats battle in both. However, bragging about beating North Texas as a road dog falls on deaf Bobcats ears, they’re 2-2 on the field and 4-0 In the Stats. The two-game losing streak is against strong teams in Arizona State and Sam Houston State and that proves the old German adage “Besser als en scheient” (better than it seems) is in play here for the Bobcats. If the language lesson isn’t enough, how about TSU going 6-2 ATS coming off consecutive losses including 3-0 ATS against sub .333 foes. You know how to throw those Euros around. Kind of like how Texas State may throw the Sun Belt around to join the Mountain West.
Sam Houston State over UTEP by 14
Sam Houston acted like a feral street cat last season in its FBS debut, nervous and afraid of everything. That led to a starved for victories 0-8 start before the wins trickled in near the end of ’23. Gradually, after a few feedings that Kat has become relaxed and happy, going 4-1 SUATS in matching their 4-1 overall start including last week’s dramatic buzzer beating FG win over Texas State. Dual threat QB Hunter Watson has completed fewer than 50% of his passes the last two games combined but he has rushed for 221 yards and two scores to make up for it. He faces a UTEP team that is winless and ranked by The Athletic 132nd out of 134 teams. The Miners may have found their QB of the future in Cade McConnell, but a long dusty dig remains for Texas-El Paso to be a winner. They, as of this week, have a future in the Mountain West, having announced they’re leaving Conference USA as reported by multiple outlets. How will C-USA survive the loss of a football heavyweight?
Tampa Bay over ATLANTA by 3
Now we know that Tampa Bay is the Eagles’ Boogeyman. They’ve beaten Philly in five of the last six meetings, including the playoffs last season, and enter tonight's matchup with the Falcons in Atlanta. The Dirty Birds are one of 13 NFL teams sitting at 2-2 after the opening month of the season, one game back of the division-leading Bucs, led by QB Baker Mayfield, who has thrown more TD passes in the league than any signal caller since last season. Tampa arrives at 6-1 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games while cashing in six of its last eight division roadies. Atlanta settles in at 1-5 ATS on Thursdays and 0-5 ATS before a division road game. With the MIDWEEK ALERT reminding us that the Bucs are a bonafide “BOD” (dog with the better offense and better defense), we’ll be on the take tonight.