Winning Points NFL Championship writeups & picks:
New England over *Denver by 10
The Steelers gave it a gutty shot against Denver. But this is how it has to be, Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning one last time. It’s only fitting the greatest quarterback rivalry of our generation meet to decide the AFC championship. It’s apt, too, because these are the two best teams in the AFC. Denver has the best defense in the league and home field advantage. It’s not enough, though. New England’s defense is very good, too, ranking in the top 10 in fewest points and yards allowed. The difference is the quarterbacks. Brady has triumphed above Manning in 11 of their previous 16 meetings and at no other time has the gap between the two future Hall of Famers been as wide. Brady is 38 yet still remains in his prime putting together one of his greatest seasons – a league-leading 36 touchdown passes, only seven interceptions and fourth in the quarterback ratings at 102.2. Brady accomplished this despite multiple offensive injuries. He doesn’t have a ground game to fall back on with ancient Steven Jackson the best of a backup lot with Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount out. Brady is able to overcome a makeshift offensive line by operating a highly effective, up-tempo, no-huddle offense throwing quick precision passes. The Patriots erased any late season doubts – averaging only 15 points in losses to the Jets and Dolphins to finish the regular season – by regaining their mojo against a very strong Kansas City defense putting up 27 points. New England’s offense is restocked and reloaded with Rob Gronkowski looking spry and Julian Edelman returning after missing the last seven games of the regular season with a foot injury. Edelman’s presence is huge. The Patriots averaged 33 points and a 50 percent third-down conversion rate with him. Without him, they averaged 23.1 points and converted only 30 percent on third down. The Patriots’ offense should be sharper, too, having got the rust off and their confidence back up last Saturday following a much needed bye. Denver surrendered the fourth-fewest points at 18.2 per game and least amount of yards. The Patriots aren’t going to dominate this stop unit, but they will get their share of points. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 339 yards on Denver this past Sunday despite a bad shoulder and minus top receiver Antonio Brown. Broncos cornerback Chris Harris is* dealing with a shoulder injury. Look for a stronger performance from the Patriots than when they fell to the Broncos, 30-24, in overtime on Nov. 29 in Denver blowing a 21-7 fourth quarter lead. Brock Osweiler was Denver’s quarterback in that game. Broncos coach Gary Kubiak is going with Manning, who won’t be able to keep pace with Brady. The calendar says Manning only is a year older than Brady. But a series of neck surgeries and foot injury have taken away Manning’s fastball rendering him nothing more than a glorified game manager. He draws the nod over Osweiler not on talent anymore, but experience. No other quarterback except Manning could have retained his job with the statistics he put up – a 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 35th passer rating at 67.9. The Broncos were 5-4 SU and ATS in Manning’s nine starts. Manning failed to produce any old magic against the Steelers either making his first start since Nov. 15 with a quarterback rating of 74.4. Manning struggled to put up a touchdown against the Steelers until capitalizing on a late fumble in Denver’s 23-16 victory. Even in his prime, Manning has a terrible playoff track record, including a 1-5 postseason record in sub-40 degree temperature, including a 24-13 home playoff loss to the Colts last season when he was in much better physical condition. The Patriots had their key linebackers, Dont’a Hightower (knee), Jamie Collins (back) and Jerod Mayo (shoulder) banged up against the Chiefs. So keep an eye on their status, but Bill Belichick has solid replacements and always has versatile defenders. The Broncos are forced to be a run-first team, although lacking a star runner. So they are not difficult to defend. New England ranks ninth in run defense. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven playoff games. NEW ENGLAND 27-17.
*Carolina over Arizona by 10
The late Rodney Dangerfield would have loved the Carolina Panthers. Despite a 16-1 record, the likely MVP in Cam Newton, the best cornerback in football, Josh Norman, and six others who were selected either first or second team Pro Bowl, the Panthers draw no respect. Maybe the oddsmaker and marketplace got spooked by the Panthers only beating Seattle, 31-24, after leading 31-0 at halftime this past Sunday. But the Panthers are better than a field goal against the Cardinals at Bank of America Stadium where they have won 12 in a row. It should be kept in mind that the Panthers’ second-half goal against the Seahawks was running time off the clock rather than running up a score. It was the second time in two meetings the Panthers defeated the Seahawks, a team that destroyed the Cardinals, 30-6, at Arizona just three weeks ago. Maybe the Cardinals were flat for that contest realistically knowing they weren’t going to climb above Carolina to draw the No. 1 seed. But then this past Saturday night the Cardinals were lucky rather than good in defeating Green Bay, 26-20, in overtime. Carson Palmer was picked off twice by the Packers. He could have been intercepted a couple of more times, too, by Sam Shields alone. Palmer hasn’t looked right and the Cardinals haven’t been prolific during their last couple of game. Maybe it’s physical with Palmer. But it’s a troubling sign especially given that Carolina led the NFL with 39 takeaways. Palmer had never won a postseason game in 13 seasons until Arizona averted disaster by getting past the Packers at home. Newton, meanwhile, continues his amazing season accounting for 45 touchdowns, 3,837 passing yards and 636 rushing yards during the regular season. Palmer has more wide receiving weapons with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown, but Carolina rates a strong edge at tight end with Greg Olsen. The Panthers have the more experienced and proven running back in Jonathan Stewart, who rushed for 106 yards and scored two touchdowns against Seattle’s stout run defense this past week after missing three games with a foot injury. Arizona won seven of its eight road contests, although its win at Seattle was the only one versus a playoff team. The Cardinals would like to believe they can beat the Panthers on the road now that they have Palmer healthy. That wasn’t the case last season when the Panthers took advantage of Arizona being without Palmer and second-stringer Drew Stanton – both down with knee injuries - to win 27-16 in the Wild Card playoff round. This is the Panthers’ third straight season in the playoffs. They’re ready for the next step. Carolina needs replacement defensive backs Robert McClain and veteran Cortland Finnegan to hold up. The Panthers, though, not only have shutdown corner Norman, but a pair of stud linebackers in Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis. Arizona has its own shutdown cornerback, Patrick Peterson. Healthy most of the season, the Cardinals suffered a couple of key late-season injuries losing second-leading tackler and emotional leader safety Tyrann Mathieu and linebacker Alex Okafor, a key to their run defense. Carolina ranks fourth in run defense and is in the top six in fewest points and yards allowed. If the Cardinals aren’t running effectively – which they couldn’t do against the Packers – they can be overwhelmed at the point of attack. In their last two games, the Cardinals have run the ball 32 times for 67 yards, an average of barely two yards per carry. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals have trouble mounting a pass rush unless they blitz. Acquiring Dwight Freeney helped, but Freeney no longer is an every down player.* Newton is adept at beating the blitz with his great mobility and strength. He’s more trustworthy than Palmer right now. The Panthers hold an advantage, too, in the kicking game. Arizona’s Drew Butler is among the NFL’s worst punters and kicker Chandler Catanzaro missed five extra points during the season. The Panthers are a rising team with a huge chip on their shoulder believing they have been disrespected. They have. That won’t be the case anymore following this game. CAROLINA 30-20.
