Newsletters

BuzzKill · Dec 29, 2020

Newsletter Tracking (through 12/28/2020) from Mendoza Line

Due to the schedule of bowl games and newsletter releases, there are still several pending plays. I'll try to update the records after a couple more days.

Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season. There were a few newsletters we didn't see this week, and a few with light action to start the season.

Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.

CKO (we've gotten CKO only twice this season)
11* (0-2)
10* (3-5)
o/u (2-2)

Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA Best Bets (37-35-1) (no NCAA picks this week)
NFL Best Bets (36-31-1) (4-0 overall this week)

Marc Lawrence's Playbook NCAA
"Top Play" (6-7) (Miami, FL +3.5 pending)
Upset pick (8-7)
Betcha Didn't Know (6-7)
Awesome Angle (10-6)
Incredible Stat (3-10)

Marc Lawrence's Playbook NFL
5* (7-9)
4* (10-6)
3* (9-6-1)

Pointwise NCAA
1* (12-11)
2* (3-9)
3* (10-5)
4* (8-9-1)
5* (7-11)

Pointwise NFL
3* (4-13)
4* (17-14)
5* (13-18-1)

Power Sweep NCAA
4* (3-11) (Colorado +12 pending)
3* (16-9)
2* (12-8) (Miami, FL +3.5 pending)
Underdog Play of the Week (7-7)
Tech Play of the Week (1-5)
Revenge Play of the Week (4-5)
Situational Play of the Week (3-3)
Series Play of the Week (4-6)

Power Sweep NFL
4* (7-9)
3* (4-11)
2* (6-8-1)
NFL System play (8-9)
4* Pro Angle (1-6)
3* o/u play (8-7-1)

Powers' Picks NCAA
3* (0-0)
2* (12-7)
1* (22-13)

Powers' Picks NFL
4* (0-0)
3* (0-1)
2* (9-15)
1* (10-14-1)

Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (12-33-2) (Texas -13 and Okla +3 pending)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-1)
NFL Best Bets (15-17-1)

Red Sheet (no newsletter this week)
90* (1-0)
89* (12-19)
88* (24-27-2)

Winning Points
NCAA 4* (9-3-1)
NCAA 3* (5-4)
NFL 4* (6-9)
NFL 3* (5-10)

Killer Sports, not including teasers
MTI 5* (2-0)
MTI 4.5* (0-1)
MTI 4* (3-2)
SBB 4.5* (0-0-2)
SBB 4* (18-12)
Cajun NCAA (6-5) (edited) (Oklahoma +3 pending)
Pick 60 Play of the Week (0-0)

Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet (edited)
3* (18-14)
2* (7-8-1)
Team Total of the Week (11-5)

Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (12-11-1)
NCAA 4* (27-20-1)
NFL 4* (7-9)

Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (19-36)
NFL Key Releases (28-33-1)

ITPB
NCAA (37-34)
NFL (10-18-2)

BuzzKill · Dec 29, 2020

Northcoast Sports Power Sweep - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1baY20_Ij1Q8RQny8CZlVuhimNvI7IFId/view

BuzzKill · Dec 29, 2020

Thanks!

Giant419 · Dec 29, 2020

[h=1]Stanford Steve and The Bear: CFB bowl picks, bets, nuggets[/h]What's in store for this holiday season in college football?
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica break down the bowl season as only they can, offering their top bets, teasers to look at and betting nuggets for the games.
The guys are ready to continue their prognostications and will do so throughout the bowl season.
Records

Stanford Steve (1-2 in Week 16, 27-18-1 overall)
The Bear (2-1 in Week 16, 24-21-1)

[h=2]The plays[/h][h=2]Cheez-It Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]No. 21 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2, 60.5) vs. No. 18 Miami Hurricanes[/h](Tuesday, 5:30 p.m. ET, on ESPN; at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida)
Stanford Steve: I know it's really hard to forget what the Hurricanes looked like the last time you saw them -- when they gave up over 500 yards rushing and 62 points to North Carolina -- but you're going to have to. The Cowboys aren't what I thought they were coming into the season, turning the ball over too much and lacking that big-play potential from Mike Gundy teams in the past. I like a motivated Canes team to cover this spread and get that awful taste out of their mouths from their last game out.
Pick: Miami +2 (Miami 29, Oklahoma State 27)
[h=2]AutoZone Liberty Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]West Virginia Mountaineers (-7, 41.5) vs. Army Black Knights[/h](Thursday, 4 p.m. ET, on ESPN; at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee)
Stanford Steve: I feel dirty going against the cadets, but when I look at their past three wins, they faced the offenses of Georgia Southern, Navy and Air Force. You would think the Mountaineers have way better talent on offense than those teams. Plus, I like the idea of a Neil Brown defense defending the option, and I like West Virginia's personnel in the front seven. I'll lay the points with the Mountaineers.
Pick: West Virginia -7 (West Virginia 27, Army 16)
The Bear: It's good to see Army was properly rewarded with a bowl game after a 9-2 season (three wins versus non-FBS teams). But against a well-coached, solid defensive team, this might not be the best of matchups, considering that Army also has had to get up for its two biggest rivals in consecutive weeks and captured the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy in the process. The Mountaineers laid an egg in their previous game against Iowa State, but even with a key defensive opt-out (Tony Fields), I think West Virginia is the right side here versus what is sure to be a public underdog.
Pick: West Virginia -7
[h=2]Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs (-7, 50.5) vs. No. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats[/h](Friday, noon ET, on ESPN; at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta)
The Bear: The Bulldogs had a mail-it-in effort against Texas in a bowl game two years ago, after they blew the SEC championship game (and probably still should have been in the College Football Playoff). Last year, however, Georgia showed in the Sugar Bowl versus Baylor, completely dominating the Bears. The Bulldogs aren't headed to the CFP, and there will be opt-outs, but there won't be disappointment. As long as JT Daniels and George Pickens are playing, Georgia will score. Expect Georgia's young talent to star in a thorough win over a Cincinnati team, which was shut out 42-0 by Ohio State the last time it faced a team with this much talent. The Bearcats have the zero in the loss column, but power ratings have them ranked 17th (FPI, Sagarin) and ninth (SP+). Cincinnati didn't belong in the CFP as one of the best four teams in the nation, yet a win here could cap a rare undefeated season. But I'm on Georgia here.
Pick: Georgia -7
[h=2]Rose Bowl Game Presented by Capital One[/h]

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[h=3]CFP Semifinal: No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-19.5, 65.5)[/h](Friday, 4 p.m. ET, on ESPN; at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas)
Stanford Steve: While the back door will be open all game long, I think both offenses will dominate this game. I expect Notre Dame to score the points to keep this game close enough to cover. I do think the Irish will have issues with the offense that the Tide bring to the table, as Alabama's foot is never off the gas. We'll take the over.
Pick: Over 65.5 (Alabama 45, Notre Dame 24)
[h=2]Allstate Sugar Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]CFP Semifinal: No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 2 Clemson Tigers (-7.5, 66.5)[/h](Friday, 8 p.m. ET, on ESPN; at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans)
The Bear: There will be a lot of talk and comparison to last year's CFP semifinal meeting, but this year's Buckeyes team is nothing compared to that team, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Despite facing the offenses of Nebraska, Penn State, Indiana, Michigan State, Rutgers and Northwestern, Ohio State is 22nd in adjusted defensive EPA. There's no J.K. Dobbins. About the biggest plus you can give Ohio State here is how fresh the Buckeyes will be after playing only six games. QB Justin Fields' thumb is something to watch, as well. I also think the Clemson players will be tired of hearing how Ohio State should have beaten them last year and will have their coach's back, after Dabo Swinney has been vocal about teams playing only six games and where Swinney has the Buckeyes ranked. What we saw in the ACC championship game is the Clemson we've come to know and expect, and I think that's the version we'll see in New Orleans.
Pick: Clemson -7.5
[h=2]TaxSlayer Gator Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]No. 23 NC State Wolfpack vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-2.5, 50.5)[/h](Saturday, noon ET, on ESPN; at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida)
The Bear: Mark Stoops has found a way to lead the Cats to bowl wins with teams that struggled offensively, and I expect he'll do that here too. NC State has surprised a lot of people this season with its 8-3 mark, but I don't think the Wolfpack can win the line of scrimmage here against UK. Kentucky found itself after a rough spell with a blowout of South Carolina, and anything close to that effort here should give UK its third straight bowl win.
Pick: Kentucky -2.5
[h=2]Outback Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers (-7.5, 66)[/h](Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, on ABC; at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida)
The Bear: The Rebels are going to score points with or without Elijah Moore. And while the Rebels' defense is not very good, Indiana's offense has struggled moving the ball without QB Michael Penix Jr. after having thrown for just 115 and 130 yards in the past two games. There has been a lot of talk about IU's inclusion in the New Year's Six, but after last season's crushing Gator Bowl loss, any bowl win would cap a special season for the Hoosiers. But I think this one is going to be close.
Pick: Ole Miss +7.5
[h=2]PlayStation Fiesta Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]No. 25 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 10 Iowa State Cyclones (-4.5, 57.5)[/h](Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, on ESPN; at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona)
Stanford Steve: The Cyclones are my favorite bet of the bowls. Top to bottom, from coaching to every position on the field, I think they have the advantage. Love the Clones, and I'll lay the points.
Pick: Iowa State -4.5 (Iowa State 38, Oregon 24)
The Bear: Iowa State came up a few yards shy of a Big 12 title, and the culprits were what the Cyclones struggled with this year -- turnovers and special teams. But the opportunity for Iowa State to win the Fiesta Bowl doesn't come around often, and that should be a motivating factor. Injuries on the offensive line could be problematic, as Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux has played his best ball in conference title and bowl games. But the Iowa State defense should give Oregon trouble, as well. Oregon QB Tyler Shough struggled mightily in the Pac-12 title game, to the point where it almost appeared he wasn't trusted to throw the ball. He'll have to throw it in order for the Ducks to have a chance here. I'll lay the points with what I think will be a hungry Iowa State team out to prove itself.
Pick: Iowa State -4.5

[h=2]Stanford Steve's 3-team, 10-point teaser[/h]Northwestern +6.5 (vs. Auburn)
Georgia +3 (vs. Cincinnati)
San Jose State +.5 (vs. Ball State)

[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h]Underdogs on the money line has been the way to go
• Since 2008, single-digit bowl underdogs have covered the spread 52% of the time. Of the 203 that covered in that span, 167 (or 82.3%) won outright. That also would mean 42.2% of all bowl games with a single-digit spread were won outright by the underdog.
Group of 5 'dogs struggle against the spread in Power 5 matchups
• Over the past 10 years, there have been 28 post-Christmas bowls in which there was a Power 5 team favored over a Group of 5 team. The G5 team won eight of the 28 games outright and went 11-16-1 ATS. Four of the eight wins came against teams that were 6-6 entering the game. Since Houston's win over Pitt in January 2015, G5 underdogs are 3-14 straight up vs. P5 teams.
• If you limit the above to G5 underdogs vs. an SEC team, they are 2-6 outright and 3-5 ATS. The two wins were by UCF: against Auburn in 2017 and Georgia in 2010.
Big Ten vs. SEC
• Indiana is favored over Ole Miss, and Northwestern is favored over Auburn. Dating back to the 2015 season, Big Ten teams are 4-11 SU and ATS vs. SEC teams in bowl games. The past three SEC teams that were bowl underdogs versus Big Ten opponents won outright: Kentucky over Penn State, Florida vs. Michigan and South Carolina vs. Michigan.
Pac-12 resurgence?
• Oregon and Colorado are the only Pac-12 teams playing in bowl games this season. Last year, the Pac-12 posted a 4-3 mark in bowls. The conference had gone 4-12 in its previous 16 bowl games.
Big 12 favorites
• All five Big 12 teams in bowl games are favored. Of the 14 Big 12 teams that made bowls the previous two seasons, only one was favored: TCU over Cal in the 2018 Cheez-It Bowl (arguably the greatest game of all time). Big 12 teams have been favored just five times in their past 22 bowl games. All five of those teams won and four covered.
Support the troops
• Since 2013, Air Force, Army and Navy are 11-2 both outright and ATS in bowl games. That includes four outright wins in five games as underdogs.
More to know
• Favorites covered all three CFP games last year for the first time in the six-year history of the CFP.
• In the past three years, there has been just one upset in a CFP game: Clemson over Alabama in the 2018 championship game (favorites covered six of the nine games). In the first three years, five of the nine games were won by the underdog.
• Favorites have covered five of the six semis over the past three years. The only favorite that didn't cover was Alabama, against Oklahoma in 2018, a game the Tide led 28-0 just 17 minutes into the game.
No. 21 Oklahoma State vs. No. 18 Miami
• Miami has lost nine of its past 10 bowl games and is 2-10 ATS in its past 12 bowl games. Oklahoma State has covered each of its past four bowl games, with three coming as an underdog.
Valero Alamo Bowl: No. 20 Texas Longhorns (-7.5, 63.5) vs. Colorado Buffaloes, Tuesday (9 p.m. ET, on ESPN)
• This is the first time since 2011 Texas is favored in a bowl game.
Duke's Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Wisconsin Badgers (-7.5, 51.5), Wednesday (noon ET, on ESPN)
• The Badgers have won five of their past six bowl games; the only defeat in that span was a one-point loss to Oregon last year in the Rose Bowl. Each of Wake Forest's past five bowl games have been one-possession games (decided by six, three, three, eight and six points, respectively).
• Prior to a measly 48 total points scored in last year's bowl loss to Michigan State, Wake Forest's three bowl games under Dave Clawson saw 71, 107 and 60 total points scored. Those three games resulted in Wake Forest wins. If you include the three bowl games Clawson coached in at Bowling Green, those saw 57, 49 and 85 points.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: No. 7 Florida Gators vs. No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (-3, 70), Wednesday (8 p.m. ET, on ESPN)
• Dan Mullen teams have won seven of their nine bowl games (4-5 ATS). This is the fourth straight year Oklahoma has been an underdog in a bowl game (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS).
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: No. 24 Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-2.5, 47) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs, Thursday (noon ET, on ESPN)
• Mike Leach teams are 1-9 ATS in their past 10 bowl games (4-6 SU). Included in those games are four outright losses and a 1-7 ATS mark as a favorite. In the past five years, Leach's teams have averaged 19.6 points in bowl games (28 is the high in that span).
Mercari Texas Bowl: Arkansas Razorbacks vs. TCU Horned Frogs (-4.5, 57), Thursday (8 p.m. ET, on ESPN)
• Twelve of TCU's past 14 bowl games have been one-score games. Seven were decided by a field goal or less.
No. 9 Georgia vs. No. 8 Cincinnati
• Since UCF upset Auburn in 2017, AAC underdogs have lost six straight bowls by an average of 27.3 points, with five by at least 14 points. None of the six covered.
Vrbo Citrus Bowl: Auburn Tigers vs. No. 14 Northwestern Wildcats (-3.5, 43.5), Friday (1 p.m. ET, on ABC)
• This is just the third time in 15 bowl games Northwestern is favored.
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
• There have been only two bowl games with a larger point spread than the CFP semifinal between the Tide and Fighting Irish: 2020 Appalachian State -21.5 vs. North Texas and 2017 FAU vs. Akron. Both covered and won by a combined 106-31 margin.
• This is the largest underdog Notre Dame has been since losing 38-3 as a 32.5-point underdog to USC in 2008. Since that game, the Irish have been a double-digit 'dog nine times and covered six. Two of the three non-covers came versus Clemson in the CFP and the ACC championship game.
• Alabama is 3-6 ATS in CFP games, failing to cover each of its past three games.
No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Clemson
• This is Ryan Day's 24th game as Ohio State head coach. He has been an underdog twice -- the two games versus Clemson.
• Despite not facing a single offense ranked in top 40 in adjusted offensive EPA, Ohio State is just 22nd in adjusted defensive EPA. The Buckeyes now face their toughest offensive opponent of the season.
• Since a 2016 loss at Syracuse, Clemson has won 43 straight games as a favorite of at least a TD. Only five of those games were decided by single digits.
• Since 2013, Ohio State is 5-3 in bowl games. The Buckeyes are 0-3 versus Clemson and 5-0 versus everyone else.
• Since 2012, Clemson is 9-3 in bowl games. The Tigers are 3-3 against SEC foes Alabama and LSU and 6-0 versus everyone else. Clemson is 10-2 ATS in those 12 games. Amazingly, Clemson has been favored only twice in those dozen contests.
No. 23 NC State vs. Kentucky
• Dave Doeren has coached in six bowl games. Five have been decided by more than 17 points. That's counter to Kentucky's past three bowls, which have been decided by a combined 11 points.
No. 25 Oregon vs. No. 10 Iowa State (-4.5, 57.5)
• This is just the second time Iowa State has been favored in a bowl game; the other was in 2012, a game the Cyclones lost 31-17 to Tulsa.
• All three Iowa State bowl games under Matt Campbell have gone under the total, by 12.5, 3 and 27.5 points, an average of 14.3 points per game. Going back even further, six straight and nine of ISU's past 10 bowls have gone under.
• In its past 19 games as an underdog, Oregon is 7-12 ATS (5-4 under Mario Cristobal). All seven of the covers were also outright wins. Included in those victories are wins in each of the past two Pac-12 title games and the Rose Bowl.
Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (-7.5, 65.5) vs. No. 13 North Carolina Tar Heels, Saturday (8 p.m. ET, on ESPN)
• Jimbo Fisher is 6-1 with a favorite in a bowl game, the only loss coming with FSU against Houston in 2015. His teams are 4-3 ATS in those seven games.

Giant419 · Dec 29, 2020

Sorry I missed this article earlier...

[h=1]College football bowls best bets: Picks for the biggest games[/h]Doug Kezirian, Bill Connelly, Preston Johnson, David M. Hale and Seth Walder provide their best bets for some of this season's bowl games. More games will be added as bowls approach.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.

[h=2]Duke's Mayo Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Wisconsin Badgers (-7, 51.5), noon ET, Wednesday (on ESPN)[/h]Hale: There was no more consistently overrated team this year than Wisconsin -- both by the pollsters and the bettors. After opening the year 2-0 with wins over Illinois and (as it turned out) a woeful Michigan, the supposedly strong Wisconsin offense evaporated, failing to top 7 points in three straight losses before narrowly avoiding an upset at home against Minnesota. After completing 20-of-21 passes in the opener, Graham Mertz has been awful, completing just 56% of his throws and averaging 5.5 yards per pass. He hasn't thrown a TD in his last three games. Overall, Wisconsin has gone four straight without a cover (all by at least a TD).
On the flip side, Wake Forest has consistently been among the most undervalued teams this season, finishing the regular season 6-2 against the spread, including a 3-0 mark as an underdog. Wake is 3-1 in bowl games under Dave Clawson, too, with the lone loss coming in a one-possession game against Michigan State last year. In fact, the Deacons have just four drives total in their last four bowl games in which they trailed by 8 or more. Wake also had its senior day swiped at the last minute with Florida State's cancellation of their scheduled Dec. 18 matchup, which has turned the bowl game into something legitimately meaningful for the team.
All of that adds up to what could easily be an outright Wake win, and a game we're happy to take the points.
Pick: Wake Forest +7
Connelly: Both the stats and eyeballs have had trouble figuring out Wisconsin. The Badgers looked like national-title contenders in their first two games of the season then scored a total of 20 points in their next three. Because SP+ liked UW so much in the preseason projections, it still thinks pretty highly of them and gives them a 14.5-point advantage in this one.
Wake was on a run of overachievement for a while, winning four straight then narrowly losing to UNC. But the Deacs have played only one game since Nov. 14 -- a 24-point drubbing of a loss at Louisville -- and in the end, there's only one reliably good unit in this game: Wisconsin's defense. Even if the Badgers don't win by 14+, we'll say the D alone makes them likely to win by more than a touchdown.
Pick: Wisconsin -7

[h=2]Offerpad Arizona Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]Ball State Cardinals vs. No. 22 San Jose State Spartans (-9.5, 64), 2 p.m. ET, Thursday (on CBSSN)[/h]Connelly: SJSU was one of the happiest stories of the fall, and the odds are pretty good that the Spartans will win the Arizona Bowl and finish unbeaten. But 9.5 points is a significant advantage considering both how one-dimensional their offense is (they can't run) and how efficient Ball State's offense is.
Granted, the Cardinals will be without running back Caleb Huntley, but backup Tye Evans is tough to bring down (he averages more yards after contact than Huntley), and quarterback Drew Plitt pilots one of the better quick-hitting passing games SJSU has seen. Receiver Justin Hall takes short passes long distances, and while BSU is a deserving underdog, SP+ projects a 6-point advantage for SJSU, not 9.5.
Pick: Ball State +9.5

[h=2]Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]No. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs (-7, 50), noon ET, Friday (on ESPN)[/h]Kezirian: We have seen these types of bowl matchups in recent years. One team has a chip on its shoulder, and another team essentially goes through the motions. The Bearcats are undefeated and feel snubbed by the CFP committee. Here is their chance to demonstrate their worth against an SEC opponent. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have seen some key players decide to miss the game, opting to focus on the NFL draft. UC has a solid defense, and I believe the stark contrast in desire will keep this within the number.
Pick: Cincinnati +7

[h=2]Vrbo Citrus Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]Auburn Tigers vs. No. 14 Northwestern Wildcats (-3.5, 43.5), 1 p.m. ET, Friday (on ABC)[/h]Walder: There's no question that Northwestern has played better this season. The Wildcats rank 16th in total efficiency -- which is expected points added per play adjusted for quality of opponent and garbage time -- while the Tigers sit 30th. And Northwestern's best unit is its defense, which is the most predictive of future success. So why does FPI not only like Auburn against the spread, but straight up? The prior.
Here's the thing: The preseason prior is extra important this year. Normally come bowl season we'd have 12 or 13 games of information on each of these teams. But because they've played only 10 and eight games, respectively, the prior hasn't decayed as much. And rightfully so! It's fair to hold the skepticism of Northwestern you might have for its ninth game now, which is why FPI now prefers Auburn -- which it thought was the eighth-best team in the preseason.
Pick: Auburn +3.5

[h=2]College Football Playoff Semifinal at The Rose Bowl Game Presented by Capital One[/h]

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[h=3]No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-19.5, 65.5), 4 p.m. ET, Friday (on ESPN)[/h]Kezirian: It takes a strong stomach to fade Alabama, but if I am going to do it, I need a lot of points and a solid team. That's what I have with the Irish. They were dismantled by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, but I am viewing that as an atypical performance. Notre Dame still has a quality offense, and the defense is good enough to force a punt or two before halftime. I say that because Bama's offense is just that good. The fourth quarter is certainly a significant element, because if Nick Saban has a comfortable lead, he will look to grind clock and preserve his players' health for the national title game. We saw a similar situation two years ago when the Tide jumped out on Oklahoma 28-0 and entered halftime with a 31-10 lead. Bama scored only 14 more points. The backdoor will be wide open, but I also think Notre Dame has the horses to hang around the entire way.
Pick: Notre Dame +19.5
[h=2]Completed games[/h][h=2]New Mexico Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors vs. Houston Cougars (-11, 59.5)[/h]Final: Hawaii 28, Houston 14
[h=1]Stream Bet[/h]

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Co-hosted by Joe Fortenbaugh and Tyler Fulghum, Bet is available for live and on-demand viewing on the ESPN App and on ESPN's social media feeds on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. Watch
Connelly: Call this partially data-based and partially hopeful. Consider:
1. Early bowls have skewed toward overs so far, which, if we're honest, is everything we want from bowl season.
2. SP+ projects a 63-point total for this one, a little bit above the line. It's a little ambitious for Hawaii, but of its past six games, four have at least hit 59, and two have hit 72. Houston games have gone over 59.5 four of seven times as well, with two more hitting at least 57. So there's a little bit of value there.
3. A Houston-Hawaii matchup deserves nothing less. The last time these teams played was in the 2003 Hawaii Bowl -- Hawaii won 54-48 in a triple-overtime clash that featured nearly 1,200 yards, then the teams followed up with a pretty spectacular postgame brawl. College football is nothing without its history, and Hawaii-Houston games should always be prolific. And feisty.
Pick: Over 59.5

[h=2]Montgomery Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]Memphis Tigers (-9.5, 52) vs. Florida Atlantic Owls[/h]Final: Memphis 25, Florida Atlantic 10
Hale: Does Memphis care all that much about this game? Will its up-and-down offense actually perform? Good questions, and ones we'll likely be dealing with for plenty of teams during this unpredictable bowl season. The margin between the American, where Memphis is one of the better programs, and Conference USA, where Florida Atlantic lost its past two and failed to beat a team with a winning record, is massive. If Memphis has any appetite to actually play, the Tigers should win in a rout.
Pick: Memphis -9.5

[h=2]R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Georgia Southern Eagles (-4.5, 51)[/h]Final: Georgia Southern 38, Louisiana Tech 3
Connelly: Louisiana Tech pulled off a couple of the least likely wins of 2020. Based on the stats each game produced, the Bulldogs' victories over Southern Miss (31-30 in Week 3) and UAB (37-34 in Week 9) each produced postgame win expectancies of 10% or less. They therefore managed a 5-4 record despite a No. 112 SP+ ranking and a stat profile that suggested something closer to 3-6. They might have more magic left in them, but I wouldn't count on it.
Georgia Southern, meanwhile? A legit 7-5 in one of the best iterations ever of the Sun Belt. The Eagles were hilariously inconsistent, nearly losing to FCS' Campbell and falling to rival Georgia State, but giving Louisiana and Appalachian State all sorts of trouble and pummeling Florida Atlantic. On average they were quite superior to Louisiana Tech, and SP+ gives them a projected 11.3-point advantage.
Pick: Georgia Southern -4.5

[h=2]Myrtle Beach Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]Appalachian State Mountaineers (-19.5, 62.5) vs. North Texas Mean Green[/h]Final: Appalachian State 56, North Texas 28
Kezirian: The North Texas defense is a special kind of bad, ranked 20th worst in FBS, allowing 6.4 yards per play. The Mean Green surrendered at least 35 points against all but one of their eight FBS opponents. Rice was the only one they held in check, and the Owls are pretty poor. Now North Texas faces a solid Appalachian State squad. Two of the Mountaineers' three losses came against ranked opponents.
I will tread lightly but also bank on a track meet here. After all, no one wants to root for an under in the opening game of bowl season.
Pick: Over 62.5
Hale: Appalachian State's offense has never quite clicked this year, but its defense has been impressive, with Coastal Carolina the only opponent topping 30 points. North Texas, meanwhile, ranks 94th in offensive efficiency and played just one team in the top 80 in defensive efficiency. That was Rice, and North Texas didn't exactly look great, winning 27-17. The Mean Green would be lucky to find the end zone twice in this one, so I'm essentially betting they can hold the Mountaineers to less than 50.
Pick: Under 62.5

[h=2]RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]UCF Knights vs. No. 16 BYU Cougars (-4.5, 70.5)[/h]Final: BYU 49, UCF 23
Connelly: UCF has had some severe swings in close-game fortune in recent years. The Knights went 5-0 in one-score games during their 25-game winning streak in 2017-18 but have lost seven of eight such games since. Since SP+ doesn't punish you all that much for tight losses, their ratings haven't really changed in recent years. They're a good team, and if the College Football Playoff committee punished Cincinnati for beating them by only three in Orlando, Florida, that's totally unjustifiable.
SP+ still favors BYU by 9.1, though, because BYU is awesome. Granted, UCF has far fewer miles to travel, but even if you give the Knights an extra point for home-field adjustments, that's a decent enough cushion to take the Cougars.
Pick: BYU -4.5
Johnson: UCF had as many as 17 opt-outs by October and has had more since. Among the more recent is wide receiver Marlon Williams, who led the team in receptions (71), yards (1,039) and touchdowns (10). BYU will be at or near full strength, including future NFL draft pick Zach Wilson. Wilson leads a Cougars offense that ranks top five in both EPA and success rate, and I think we'll see more of the same against a young and depleted UCF defense ranked outside the top 40 in both metrics.
Pick: BYU -4.5
Kezirian: Let's make it a trifecta. Not much more to add to what Bill and Preston provided. The Knights who do show up will presumably play hard, but I think it's silly to fade this BYU offense. I can understand passing on this game, but if I am going to play it, I am riding with Wilson and the Cougars.
Pick: BYU -4.5

[h=2]SERVPRO First Responder Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]No. 19 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (-14, 56.5) vs. UTSA Roadrunners, 3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (on ABC)[/h]Final: Louisiana 31, UTSA 24
Hale: Two good defenses. Two mixed bags on offense. Combined, UTSA and Louisiana have gone under the number in 15 of 21 games this year. Against winning opponents, the Ragin' Cajuns' average game total was 49 points, and UTSA's was just 41 (the Roadrunners scored just 16 points per game vs. winning teams). Bowl season can be a different beast, with teams perhaps less enthusiastic about playing smashmouth defense with the offseason at hand, but this total still seems a touch high, making the under a wise bet.
Pick: Under 56.5

[h=2]LendingTree Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia State Panthers (-3.5, 50.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (on ESPN)[/h]Final: Georgia State 39, Western Kentucky 21
Hale: In a bowl season where little is certain, one thing we feel good about is the overall weakness of Conference USA. Believe it or not, the longest active win streak in the league belongs to Western Kentucky (three), but those wins came against teams that finished a combined 4-16 against FBS opposition. Western Kentucky's offense has been virtually nonexistent throughout the season, and while Georgia State hasn't exactly moved the ball with ease either, the Panthers are a far better team with solid wins over Troy and Georgia Southern and close losses to both Louisiana and App State. WKU's biggest strength is its pass rush, but Georgia State allowed just 11 sacks in nine games this season. I'd have pegged this spread at closer to a touchdown, so I'm happy to lay the 3.5.
Pick: Georgia State -3.5
Connelly: Despite the Sun Belt's solid nonconference showing and Conference USA's weakness, SP+ still sees WKU as slightly superior -- the Hilltoppers are 81st, and GSU's 86th. Both teams finished well, with Georgia State winning three of four and WKU winning three straight, but the two teams have played only one combined game in December, so we'll see how well that form carries over.
The difference could be determined by how much WKU's defensive strength matters. The Hilltoppers are driven primarily by excellent pass defense (17th in passing success rate allowed, seventh in completion rate allowed), which is fine except for the fact that Georgia State doesn't really want to pass. The Panthers are going to feed backs Destin Coates and Tucker Gregg the ball as much as possible, and quarterback Cornelious Brown is going to be involved, too. If GSU were actually particularly good at running the ball, I would lean its way. But in what could be a punt-fest, give me the team that defends better.
Pick: WKU +3.5

[h=2]FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl[/h]

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[h=3]Liberty Flames vs. No. 12 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-7.5, 59.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (on ESPN)[/h]Final: Liberty 37, Coastal Carolina 34
Kezirian: I am all for giving Coastal Carolina proper recognition for its undefeated season, but while the Chants became media darlings, Liberty flew under the radar. The Flames beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, and a one-point loss at North Carolina State is the only blemish on their record. Liberty's defense ranks better in some key categories, and the Flamers are a live 'dog here -- 7.5 points is just way too many for a game that should be close.
Pick: Liberty +7.5