Newsletters

uscmd · Nov 4, 2020

Buzz....big thanks for all you do. Looking for gaming today.

TIA, my friend

BuzzKill · Nov 4, 2020

Newsletters
Gold Sheet - https://drive.google.com/file/d/16v0Lkq3ke9USfo-U3G3KdFQsM7q0caGJ/view
Gridiron Gold Sheet - https://drive.google.com/file/d/11_-1il2MxRvKmxSRK0mUoxJDBhrTzcQq/view?usp=sharing
Northcoast Sports Power Plays - http://ncsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Power-Plays-Issue-10_New1.pdf
Northcoast Sports Power Sweep - http://ncsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Power-Sweep-Issue-10-wlogs-New.pdf
Marc Lawrence's Playbook - https://drive.google.com/file/d/124iJ5LDaK27dz_e2vfRhk80xU2OpK3a4/view?usp=sharing
Sports Reporter - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NnTWSl9DDMynxTYL7CRdh8q3ysJyA7aL/view?usp=sharing
Victor King's Totals Tipsheet - https://drive.google.com/file/d/13VvoGS_rkgKHI7tUEUVm4gQDgEYfV1Rs/view
Winning Points - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1C2ou7rNkPKLnGmcoeqZYY757ZLLctUDz/view

Tracking
This Season's Record Through November 2 - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=320&p=13308595&viewfull=1#post13308595

BuzzKill · Nov 4, 2020

BuzzKill · Nov 4, 2020

uscmd said:
Buzz....big thanks for all you do. Looking for gaming today.

TIA, my friend

Gaming Today November 4-10 - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1G5v1bXv_xyNny9knqIbz8rFf7Jq1e7-G/view?usp=sharing

BuzzKill · Nov 4, 2020

BuzzKill · Nov 4, 2020

Powers' Picks - https://drive.google.com/file/d/11sKUCM61SnGzLvGqQ_fk4WfNAUiEFm1-/view

uscmd · Nov 4, 2020

thank you

BuzzKill · Nov 4, 2020

Giant419 · Nov 5, 2020

[h=1]Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 10 college football picks, bets, nuggets[/h]College football is in full swing in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. The Bear's three-week run of perfection (9-0) came to an end last week, but he's still on a 10-2 hot streak. How will the guys fare this week?
Here is your guide to Week 10 of the season with the two college football analysts. (Games postponed because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records

Stanford Steve (1-1 last week, 15-9 overall)
The Bear (1-2, 14-9)

[h=2]The plays[/h]

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[h=3]No. 1 Clemson Tigers (-5.5, 51.5) at No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish[/h]Stanford Steve: Since 1999, the Irish have lost 19 of 20 games to AP top-5 teams. But I am here to tell you: This time, they will win. First off, Notre Dame has won 22 straight at home. And now you have a true freshman quarterback making his first road start versus a defense that has more talent than the defense that QB played against last week. On the other side of the ball, I think Brian Kelly will have a run-heavy game plan and QB Ian Book will keep the Irish in manageable situations, especially on third down. I expect the Irish to run the ball as much as possible and keep the Clemson offense on the sideline. Notre Dame money line!
Pick: Notre Dame ML +190 (Notre Dame 27, Clemson 25)

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[h=3]No. 8 Florida Gators at No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (-3, 52.5)[/h]The Bear: Maybe this will be the year the Gators knock off Georgia, but until they do, I'm going to continue to back the Bulldogs, especially at a discounted number. In the past three seasons, Georgia has won by 20 points per game and outgained the Gators by 140 yards per game. Just four of 31 Gators drives reached the Georgia red zone. Yes, there are some concerns about the Bulldogs' offense; Stetson Bennett has thrown five interceptions in the past two games. But the expected return of Georgia wide receiver George Pickens against a poor secondary should produce some big plays. And the best unit on the field remains the Georgia defense.
Pick: Georgia -3

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[h=3]No. 23 Michigan Wolverines (-3, 54) at No. 13 Indiana Hoosiers[/h]The Bear: Indiana has been a great story, but if you dig a little deeper than the W-L record, you'll find a team that averaged 2.7 yards per carry against Rutgers and didn't have 350 total yards for the game. This is a team that was badly outgained by Penn State and probably shouldn't have won that game, either. It's a team that has been the beneficiary of three turnovers in both games. Credit the Hoosiers for doing what they needed to do to win, but Michigan hasn't turned the ball over this year and offensively has put up 450 yards in both games. Yes, the Wolverines' defense gave up some big plays through the air last week, but I get the sense the Hoosiers will be a public 'dog as a ranked team at home versus a team that just suffered a crushing defeat to a rival. I'll back the Maize and Blue here.
Pick: Michigan -3

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[h=3]Kansas Jayhawks at No. 19 Oklahoma Sooners (-38, 63.5)[/h]Stanford Steve: The Sooners might get to the total themselves.
Pick: Over 63.5 (Oklahoma 61, Kansas 17)

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[h=3]Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 20 USC Trojans (-10.5, 58.5)[/h]The Bear: I'm bullish on USC in the Pac-12 this season. The Trojans are 21-4 over the past five years versus the Pac-12 South, and it appears the Sun Devils could be their toughest competition in the South. It has been tough to back the Trojans lately as a big favorite, but I like the spot for them. I sense people will be attracted to the underdog, but given the Sun Devils' personnel losses, I'm not sure they are the right side. I like the hire of defensive coordinator Todd Orlando by Clay Helton. I like QB Kedon Slovis. I like Southern California's wide receivers. And I like the Trojans here.
Pick: USC -10.5

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[h=3]No. 25 Liberty Flames at Virginia Tech Hokies (-14.5, 67.5)[/h]Stanford Steve: Both teams average about 38 points per game on offense. Liberty is the ranked squad, but the Flames haven't seen an offense like this. In fact, the Flames are fresh off giving up 35 to Southern Miss and 21 to an awful Syracuse team. Points will be plentiful. Take the over.
Pick: Over 67.5 (Virginia Tech 45, Liberty 31)

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[h=3]Maryland Terrapins at Penn State Nittany Lions (-25, 63)[/h]Stanford Steve: The last time Penn State started the year 0-2 was the same year James Franklin started 0-2, and that was when he was coaching at Vanderbilt. The Terps showed some life last week in a wild comeback to beat Minnesota. These two coaches don't like each other, so the thought is there will be plenty of fireworks and points scored. We'll take the over.
Pick: Over 63 (Penn State 45, Maryland 28)

[h=2]The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line[/h]Boise State +125
Washington +105

[h=2]The Bear's money line parlay[/h]$100 returns $119
SMU -850
Coastal Carolina -1000
Georgia State -1000
Iowa State -600
USC -380
Memphis -1000

[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h]Ranked favorites on a roll
• There are four ranked matchups this weekend. This season, favorites are 13-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in ranked matchups. The two losers are SMU (vs. Cincinnati) and Florida (at Texas A&M).
Michigan at Indiana
• This is the first time since 1988 that Michigan is favored by less than seven points versus Indiana. That year, No. 20 Michigan defeated No. 14 Indiana 31-6 as a 6.5-point favorite. Dating back to 1978, this is the closest point spread between these two schools. That 6.5-point spread is the previous low.
BYU at Boise State
• This is just the second time in the past 15 years that the Broncos are a home underdog in the regular season. The other instance was as a 2.5-point underdog in 2018 prior to a 24-17 win over Fresno State.
Liberty at Virginia Tech
• This is the first time a team 6-0 or better is a double-digit underdog to a team with two losses since 2002, when 7-0 Notre Dame was a 10.5-point 'dog to 5-2 Florida State and won 34-24. The only other time a team 6-0 or better was a double-digit 'dog to a two-loss team was in 1996, when 9-0 Army lost 42-17 to 6-2 Syracuse as an 18.5-point underdog.
Houston at Cincinnati
• The Cougars have failed to cover in each of their three games as an underdog this season. But amazingly, Houston has covered 10 consecutive games as a double-digit underdog -- three under Dana Holgorsen, one under Major Applewhite, three under Tom Herman and three under Tony Levine. Houston won four of those games outright.
Washington at Cal
• The Bears are 1.5-point favorites over Washington. Cal has upset the Huskies each of the past two campaigns, as a 13.5-point 'dog and a 12.5-point 'dog, respectively.
Clemson at Notre Dame
•This would be the first time since 2017 against Auburn that Clemson is less than a 7-point favorite in a regular-season game. That year, the Tigers were 6-point favorites over Auburn and won 14-6.
• In the past 11 regular-season matchups between top-5 teams, underdogs are 8-3 ATS.
• Notre Dame has now been a home underdog five times since 2014. The Irish won every previous game outright (2018: +3 vs. Michigan, won 24-17; 2016 +1 vs. Miami, won 30-27; 2015: +2 vs. Georgia Tech, won 30-22; 2014: +2.5 vs. Stanford, won 17-14).
South Alabama at Coastal Carolina
• This would be the biggest favorite the Chanticleers have been versus an FBS opponent. Last year, Coastal was a 17-point favorite over UMass and won 62-28.
Air Force at Army
• Dating back to 2016, underdogs are 11-1 ATS with seven outright wins in the past 12 games between two academies.
Miami at NC State
• Top-12 teams are 10-26-1 ATS this season as double-digit favorites over unranked opponents (4-19 away from home).
Texas A&M at South Carolina
• Will Muschamp knows how to keep the alumni happy. He is 3-0 ATS this season versus ranked teams and 7-2 ATS versus ranked teams dating back to 2018, all coming as an underdog (two outright wins).

Giant419 · Nov 5, 2020

[h=1]Week 10 college football best bets: Florida poised to upset Georgia?[/h]Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian (4-3 last week, 19-10 overall), Bill Connelly (2-1, 12-11), Preston Johnson (5-0, 18-10), David M. Hale (0-3, 10-12) and Seth Walder (0-1, 4-4) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 10 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday.

[h=3]West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 22 Texas Longhorns (-6.5, 55.5), noon ET (on ABC)[/h]Walder: The Football Power Index (FPI) was fairly high on Texas in the preseason -- too high, it turns out. But even if we throw out the prior and look strictly at our opponent-adjusted efficiencies, Texas has been the 23rd-best team this season and West Virginia has been the 43rd-best. Sam Ehlinger hasn't lived up to expectations, but his 76.2 QBR is stronger than Jarret Doege's 62.9. Add in home-field advantage, and 6.5 points doesn't seem like a wholly unreasonable line. But there's a reason we don't throw out the prior -- it holds predictive value, even at the end of the season, and certainly in the middle of the season. So between what we thought we knew about Texas before and what we do know about these two teams now, FPI believes the Longhorns' advantage on offense and special teams outpaces the Mountaineers' slight edge on defense to the tune of 13 points on a home field.
Pick: Texas -6.5

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[h=3]Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 20 USC Trojans (-10.5, 58), noon ET[/h]Walder: After my colleagues revamped FPI's priors this offseason, the model is performing well. It's beating all of the other prediction models that don't include the betting line in mean absolute error (the difference between the predicted point differential and the actual point differential) on all games this season, among those tracked by thepredictiontracker.com. FPI performed particularly well early in the season, and it is 39-28-1 against the spread in what we call "big diff" games -- five or more points different from the closing line. Put that all together and that says if -- if! -- our new priors really do give us an edge, a "big diff" game between two teams yet to play (and therefore most reliant on the prior) is probably the best spot. This is the lone such Pac-12 game this week, with FPI believing the Trojans ought to be favored by just over 16.
Pick: USC -10.5

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[h=3]Houston Cougars at No. 6 Cincinnati Bearcats (-13.5, 55), 3:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)[/h]Connelly: This line confuses me. Cincinnati has beaten top-40 SMU and Memphis teams by a combined 91-23 the past two weeks. Meanwhile, Houston has played two teams comparable in quality to Cincinnati -- BYU and UCF -- and lost by a combined 87-47.
Vegas continues to struggle getting a read on Cincinnati; the Bearcats are exceeding the spread by nearly 16 points per game so far. It's certainly hard to get a good read on Houston, too, but the Cougars probably aren't any better than SMU or Memphis. SP+ projects a 36-18 Cincinnati win, and I fully expected this line to be somewhere in the range of 17 to 20.
Pick: Cincinnati -13.5

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[h=3]No. 8 Florida Gators vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (-3, 52.5), 3:30 p.m. ET[/h]Hale: With Georgia's defense banged up, Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts & Co. should be able to move the football. The question is, has the Gators' defense made real strides after a sluggish start? Last week's dominant win over Missouri was encouraging, and Stetson Bennett has looked pedestrian (at best) the past few weeks. We're betting coordinator Todd Grantham will put together a winning formula against his old employer, and the Gators will win this one outright.
Pick: Florida +3

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[h=3]Pittsburgh Panthers at Florida State Seminoles (-2, 50.5), 4 p.m. ET (on ACC Network)[/h]Hale: Pitt is in free fall, but the struggles are of its own making. Defensive penalties, drops, brutal run blocking -- oh, and an injured starting quarterback -- have all played a part in the Panthers' precipitous drop. Add in this week's announcement that star safety Paris Ford was opting out, and there's little room for enthusiasm. But here's what the Panthers still have: one of the best defensive fronts in the country, which has demolished opposing run games and pressured QBs early and often. And it just so happens that Florida State's offensive line isn't very good.
Pick: Pittsburgh +2

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[h=3]No. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-12.5, 46) at Kansas State Wildcats, 4 p.m. ET[/h]Connelly: A few different trends converge here. First, SP+ is 12-4 when picking the over on games with a totals line under 47 points. (It's hitting 57% of all of its over picks, for that matter.) Plus, in conference play, OSU games are averaging 53.5 points, KSU games 55.2. This is a surprisingly low line, in other words, especially considering the weather doesn't seem like it'll be much of an issue.
SP+ is projecting 50.9 points (33.5 for OSU, 17.4 for KSU), which honestly feels a bit low given the above averages, and it's still nearly five points higher than the line. Feels like a solid bet to me.
Pick: Over 46

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[h=3]Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Florida Atlantic Owls (-7, 39.5), 6 p.m. ET[/h]Johnson: I want to try and illustrate this with a poker analogy surrounding hand ranges. If you're familiar with it, great. If you're not, no sweat. It isn't a perfect analogy anyway, but I've been thinking about sports betting through this lens after playing poker during quarantine for a few months straight.
WKU has been bad. Really, really bad. The Hilltoppers have played about as poorly as anybody could ever expect from this level of a program in 2020. In poker, we try to identify an opponents' hand ranges to the extremes on each end of the spectrum -- the nuts (the best hand they can have) or their bluffs (bad hands). The market sentiment for WKU right now is about as bad as I could ever perceive for this Hilltoppers program. This is the bottom of their range, so to speak. With my priors and game grades for WKU under coach Tyson Helton, this really is as low as it gets. That means more than likely there is only room to go up from here.
With Tyrrell Pigrome making his return under center last week against BYU -- and looking competent -- I'm buying low on the Hilltoppers this week. Getting seven points at FAU in a game with a total lined at just 39.5 is too much to pass up on here. For me, this is like the worst-case scenario. It doesn't mean WKU can't lose this single-game sample by eight or more points, but in a vacuum, it is better than this point spread implies -- even as bad as it has performed to this point.
Pick: WKU +7

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[h=3]No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies (-10, 58.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks, 7 p.m. ET (on ESPN)[/h]Hale: Quarterback Kellen Mond is playing the best football of his career, and the Aggies have shrugged off the early loss to Alabama with three straight impressive wins. The ground game is working, too -- seven rushing touchdowns in the past three games -- which could be a huge problem for a South Carolina team that just gave up 276 yards on the ground to LSU. I expect the Aggies to run away with this one.
Pick: Texas A&M -10

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[h=3]Stanford Cardinal at No. 12 Oregon Ducks (-11, 51), 7:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)[/h]Johnson: I'm generally more bullish than the market on the Cardinal this season. I even took a piece of them at +4000 to win the Pac-12. Quarterback Davis Mills has the ability to elevate the Stanford offense to a level it hasn't seen since Andrew Luck's days. There is so much upside that the market is disregarding, in my opinion, because of one bad season in 2019. That, combined with Oregon not only losing QB Justin Herbert to the NFL but multiple other position players who chose to opt out, gives Stanford a real shot to win this out of the gate. We're getting 11 points.
Tyler Shough will be Herbert's replacement, but the Ducks return zero starters on the offensive line. It might take some time before Oregon is humming to the tune of laying double digits to Stanford again. I took the points.
Pick: Stanford +11

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[h=3]Washington Huskies at California Golden Bears (-1.5, 43), 10:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN)[/h]Connelly: This is a full-on "Fine, SP+, you've got one shot at this" pick. SP+ is both particularly bullish on Washington and particularly Bearish (get it?) on Cal, and while I think part of the latter is because it's underestimating an offense with a healthy Chase Garbers, I'm riding with the Washington thing for now. The Huskies return a healthy amount of proven talent, and they were far better than their record last season. Both Washington and Cal finished 8-5, but Washington was 0-4 in one-score finishes, and Cal was 4-2.
SP+ projects a 33-22 Washington win, and while that seems a little too aggressive, I can certainly see how the Huskies might still be the superior team.
Pick: Washington +1.5

BuzzKill · Nov 5, 2020

BuzzKill · Nov 5, 2020

BuzzKill · Nov 5, 2020

BuzzKill · Nov 5, 2020

ryangenero · Nov 5, 2020

FOOTBALL JESUS PODCAST https://www.spreaker.com/user/tobyknapp/fbj-nfl-2020-week-9 many free picks

BuzzKill · Nov 6, 2020

BuzzKill · Nov 6, 2020

BuzzKill · Nov 6, 2020

Skidsteer · Nov 7, 2020

Buzz Kill said:
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