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[h=1]'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 4 college football picks, bets, nuggets[/h]Here is your guide to Week 4 of the CFB season with the two college football analysts.
Records
Stanford Steve (0-3 last week, 4-3 overall)
The Bear (2-3, 3-6)

[h=2]The plays[/h]
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[h=3]No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-27, 56) at Missouri Tigers[/h]Stanford Steve: This is one I'm not trying to overthink. One team has as much talent as anyone in the country and the other has a new head coach and just 69 players to get ready to play this week. Nick Saban has never gone more than three years without a national title since taking over in Tuscaloosa in 2007, and the Crimson Tide starts Year 3 since they won their last national title. I expect an angry Tide football team this season, especially starting this Saturday in Columbia. I'll lay the points with the Crimson Tide.
Pick: Alabama -27 (Alabama 54, Missouri 7)

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[h=3]Kansas Jayhawks at Baylor Bears (-17, 62)[/h]Stanford Steve: We haven't seen Baylor yet, but we have seen Kansas. I'll lay the points with the team from Waco.
Pick: Baylor -17 (Baylor 41, Kansas 14)

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[h=3]West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-8.5, 51.5)[/h]Stanford Steve: I am going in with the expectation that QB Spencer Sanders will not be under center for the Cowboys. Since this schedule was announced on Aug. 12th, the Mountaineers had to pinpoint this game as the one that they would be able to go out and show themselves and the country how much they have improved since last season, which was the first under head coach Neal Brown. I think they have enough to keep it close or even win the game. I'll take the points.
Pick: West Virginia +8.5 (Oklahoma State 27, West Virginia 26)

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[h=3]Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers (-5.5, 46)[/h]The Bear: The Blue Devils' 0-2 mark is a bit deceptive. They played Notre Dame tough for a half in South Bend and then did themselves in with five turnovers against Boston College. I'm curious to see Virginia's offense this year without QB Bryce Perkins, as he did essentially everything for the Cavaliers in 2019. I'll back Coach Cut and Duke here.
Pick: Duke +5.5

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[h=3]Tulane Green Wave (-3.5, 54.5) at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles[/h]The Bear: Yes, I'm going in for more Tulane! I mean, that was about the least likely comeback from 24-0 down one could ever have imagined. It will go one way or another for the Green Wave this week -- either they will go out and take care of a team that has allowed 30-plus points in both games or they will be demoralized by giving a game away last week that they should have won. I'll opt for option one, especially against a team that's 0-2, has a new coach and gave away a 17-point lead of its own last week against Louisiana Tech.
Pick: Tulane -3.5

[h=2]The Bear's 10-point, 3-team teaser of the week[/h]Based on current odds, $130 wins $100.
Miami -1 vs. Florida State
Georgia-Arkansas under 62.5
Duke +15.5 at Virginia

[h=2]The Bear's money line parlay of the week[/h]Six-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current odds, $100 returns $48.64.
UCF -4000
Baylor -1000
Georgia -2800
LSU -800
Boston College -1000
Alabama -3500

[h=2]Would you rather ...[/h]Take Vanderbilt... which might not score... +30.5 at Texas A&M, or take Arkansas... which might not score and is 0-fer against the SEC the last two years... +26.5 vs. Georgia?
Take Texas Tech... which allowed 600 yards and survived a late two-point conversion vs. Houston Baptist... +18 vs Texas, or take Kansas, which got steamrolled at home vs. Coastal Carolina +16.5 at Baylor.

[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h]Taggart under .500 as favorite
In his 13 games as a favorite at Florida State, current FAU coach Willie Taggart was 5-8 straight up. FAU is a 3-point favorite at home against South Florida.
UCF a favorite yet again
This is the 37th straight non-bowl game which UCF has been favored. The Knights, who travel to play East Carolina, are 2-6 ATS as a 24-point favorite in their last eight games.
Favorite struggles ATS in Noles-Canes matchups
Favorites are 3-12 ATS in the last 15 and 5-17 ATS in the last 22 meetings between the Seminoles and Hurricanes. Five of the last six games in the rivalry which featured a team favored by greater than a TD saw the underdog cover. Three of the six were decided by four points or fewer, and two of the six games featured an FSU team that won the national title.
2018: Miami (-14) won by 1
2013: Florida State* (-21.5) won by 27
2012: Florida State (-21) won by 13
2011: Florida State (-11) won by 4
2002: Miami (-13) won by 1
1999: Florida State* (-14) won by 10
*Won national championship
Syracuse an underdog again
Syracuse is 3-9 in its last 12 games vs. FBS opponents and are an underdog for the 11th time in its last 13 games. Syracuse is just 3-7 ATS in its previous 10 games as a 'dog.
Since the start of last year, Georgia Tech has played six road games. The Jackets have been an underdog of at least nine points in all of them (+36, +9, +17.5, +18.5, +16 and +13). the Yellow Jackets actually won two of them outright: +13 at FSU to open this season and +18.5 at Miami last year.
Vols finally a road favorite
The Vols are a road favorite for the first time since 2016 when they were a 7-point favorite at Vanderbilt -- a game the Vols lost 45-34. Tennessee has lost each of its last two games as a road favorite, also losing at South Carolina that year 24-21 as a 14-point favorite. The Vols are favored by 3.5 at South Carolina.
Second time not a charm for Boston College
Last year after winning its opener, BC lost its second game of the year at home as a 20-point favorite to Kansas. The Eagles are an 18-point favorite this week at home against Texas State.
Arkansas has been a bad 'dog
Since 2017, Arkansas has been greater than a 20-point underdog eight times. The Razorbacks have lost those games by 36, 41, 4, 38, 46, 34, 31 and 32 points, respectively. They are 26.5-point underdogs at home against No. 4 Georgia.
Iowa State struggles ATS as favorite
The Cyclones have failed to cover each of their last five games as a favorite, losing three times outright. They are favorites on the road at TCU.
Virginia Tech's record as a favorite fails to impress
Virginia Tech is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games as a favorite, losing six of the 13 outright. The Hokies host NC State.
Kentucky relishes role of underdog
Kentucky is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog, winning five outright. The Wildcats travel to Auburn on Saturday.
Army thrives as big 'dog
In Army's last 10 instances as a 14-point road underdog, the Black Knights are 8-1-1 ATS with an outright win at Temple in 2016. But its the last three games in such situations that have garnered the nation's attention:
2019: 17-point underdog at Air Force (lost by 4)
2019: 22.5-point underdog at Michigan (lost by 3 in OT)
2018: at Oklahoma (lost by 7 in OT)
Texas A&M a huge favorite
This is the first time A&M is a 30-plus point favorite in an SEC game. The last time A&M was a 30-point favorite in a conference game was 2011 when the Aggies beat Kansas 61-7 as a 31-point favorite. The Aggies are 31-point favorites against Vandy.
Texas tends to keep it tight on the road
In the last two years, No. 8 Texas is 4-4 in road games with the four wins coming by 11, 7, 7 and 5 points, respectively. The Horns head to Lubbock to play Texas Tech.
 

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[h=1]Week 4 college football best bets: Is revamped LSU worth a wager?[/h]Every Thursday during the college football season, Doug Kezirian (0-1 last week, 1-1 overall), Bill Connelly (2-2, 5-2), Preston Johnson (0-1, 1-3), Seth Walder (1-1, 3-1) and David M. Hale (3-0, 4-2) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 4 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday afternoon.
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[h=2]Thursday's game[/h]
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[h=3]UAB Blazers (-6, 47.5) at South Alabama Jaguars[/h]Hale: Sure, South Alabama has seemed frisky this season, beating Southern Miss (and getting a coach fired in the process) before blowing a big lead in the second half against Tulane. But this is still a team that finished 2-10 last season and lost to UAB 35-3. ESPN's Football Power Index and SP+ both rank UAB well ahead of South Alabama, and if anything, the Blazers' loss to Miami on Sept. 10 now looks like a relatively impressive showing. Plus, it's Thursday, and it's the only college action there is. Might as well make it interesting.
Pick: UAB -6

[h=2]Saturday's games[/h]
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[h=3]Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 6 LSU Tigers (-16.5, 56.5)[/h]Hale: Hey, Mike Leach is involved and is going to make Mississippi State's offense fun, right? And look at LSU, a shell of the team that won last season's title with Joe Burrow and Clyde Edwards-Helaire gone to the NFL and and Ja'Marr Chase opting out of this season to focus on the draft. Don't buy it. LSU is still going to move the football, still has a terrific defense and is still going to blow the doors off Mississippi State. Yes, there's some unknown on exactly what this next group of Bayou Bengals will do, but here's guessing we'll look back at this line in two months and wonder why anyone thought this would be a remotely competitive game.
Pick: LSU -16.5
Kezirian: I am going to respectfully disagree with David, which does concern me, but I have to stick with my initial assessment. I would be more likely to envision a blowout later in the season, but the season opener favors Leach and the Bulldogs. LSU won the national championship with arguably the greatest offense the sport has ever seen. However, the Tigers return only two starters and lost offensive mastermind Joe Brady to the NFL. I just think the fact that LSU lost both coordinators and so many starters, rightfully enjoyed the spotlight of winning the title and limited fans at Death Valley all points to a more level playing field Saturday.
Leach is a wizard. Coaching changes typically take time to develop, but Leach's track record speaks for itself. He also brings in a veteran quarterback in Stanford transfer K.J. Costello, who should find success against Bo Pelini's new defense. A major reason for that is Leach's "Air Raid" offense and the wider gaps between offensive linemen, which forces defensive linemen to start farther from the QB. That enables Leach's quarterbacks to stay clean, which is why he has won both prior meetings with Pelini when Pelini was Nebraska head coach.
Pick: Mississippi State +16.5

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[h=3]No. 23 Kentucky Wildcats at No. 8 Auburn Tigers (-7.5, 49.5)[/h]Kezirian: I am pretty surprised at how little respect Bo Nix has received. I realized we've been overwhelmed recently with some superstar freshmen quarterbacks such as Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa, but Nix played quite well in his debut season. He set Auburn freshman passing records in yards and touchdowns and owns the nation's second-longest current streak with 191 passes without an interception. I have the utmost confidence in Tigers coach Gus Malzahn's ability to develop him further and build off that freshman campaign.
Meanwhile, Kentucky returns senior QB Terry Wilson, but he missed 11 games last season with a knee injury. I anticipate rust when having to face a top-10 team on the road, albeit with reduced capacity at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Plus, UK lost do-everything player Lynn Bowden Jr. to the NFL and could have a difficult time maintaining scoring pace with an Auburn team that has the potential to light it up.
Pick: Auburn -7.5

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[h=3]Iowa State Cyclones (-2.5, 44.5) at TCU Horned Frogs[/h]Walder: Often when FPI has a major disagreement with the betting market, it's because of a circumstance -- usually involving a quarterback -- that it doesn't know about. FPI's prior on TCU is based on an assumption that Max Duggan was the likely starter for the Horned Frogs this season. That might be the case for future games after Duggan returned to practice following discovery of a heart condition, but it won't be the case on Saturday, as Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson named Matthew Downing the starting quarterback against Iowa State. Normally a QB situation like that might cause me to hesitate, but in this case, we're talking about a 13-point difference between FPI and the line. I'm honestly not sure if I've ever seen a difference that high before. Plus, both QBR and our college football real plus-minus models consider Duggan to be about average, so we aren't expecting a crazy drop-off.
Pick: TCU +2.5
Connelly: SP+ isn't as far off in its disagreement with the line, but it still projects TCU to have a 3.2-point advantage. I know nothing about whether Downing is good enough to engineer some improvement over last season's offense, but I do know that Iowa State's receiving corps was mostly dominated by Louisiana two weeks ago (and suffered drops when it did find open space), and TCU's secondary should be nasty once again. I hate picking an underdog at +2.5, but I got away with it with Miami-Louisville last week, and if neither SP+ nor FPI thinks of TCU as an underdog, I'm in.
Pick: TCU +2.5

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[h=3]Kansas Jayhawks at Baylor Bears (-17, 62)[/h]Connelly: I thought for a moment that I had copied this down wrong. Kansas is getting only 17 points on the road against last season's conference runner-up? Granted, we know next to nothing about Baylor this season -- the Bears have a new coach, new offense and lots of new defensive personnel. They are a potential regression candidate, and that's before we start to think about the effects of the positive coronavirus tests they've been working through in recent weeks.
We do know Kansas, however. You know, the team that lost at home by 15 points to Coastal Carolina two weeks ago. SP+ projects a 45-15 Baylor victory, and while it obviously doesn't take the above unknowns into account, that's more than enough cushion for me. Bears roll.
Pick: Baylor -17

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[h=3]West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-8.5, 51.5)[/h]Connelly: It's a Big 12-themed week of picks! SP+ and Vegas disagree with the oddsmakers quite a bit here, and that continues with this matchup. West Virginia is one of three Big 12 teams that actually looked good in their debuts, even if it was against only Eastern Kentucky. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, labored to put away Tulsa, and quarterback Spencer Sanders is questionable with an ankle injury.
After watching the Cowboys' offensive line struggle with the Golden Hurricane, I like what the Mountaineers' defensive front might be able to do. If the West Virginia can render Oklahoma State somewhat one-dimensional like Tulsa did, the Mountaineers might be able to keep things interesting even if their own offense finds that moving the ball against a physical, aggressive Big 12 defense is more difficult than moving it against Eastern Kentucky.
Pick: West Virginia +8.5

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[h=3]Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers (-6, 46)[/h]Hale: The Blue Devils' biggest strength is a ferocious defensive front, and it has shown up in each of the first two games. Duke has gotten pressure on nearly half of opponents' dropbacks this season and ranks fourth nationally in sacks despite playing against two of the top O-lines in the country (Notre Dame, Boston College). Now the group gets its shot at a Virginia unit that has yet to play a game, wasn't particularly effective last season and is blocking for a first-time starter. The Duke D should have a big day.
The question is whether the offense can manage anything. The terrible performances in the first two weeks might be a bit overstated, though. Duke has just one touchdown on six red zone drives so far, and against Boston College last week the Blue Devils had two fumbles, two interceptions and a missed field goal on drives deep in Eagles territory. Duke is better than the scores suggest, and Virginia isn't what it was in 2019.
Pick: Duke +6
Johnson: David nailed this game. For starters, Bryce Perkins graded out as one of the most valuable quarterbacks in the country last season relative to the personnel he shared the field with on offense. Perkins got the most out of a Cavaliers offense that lacked weapons at the skill positions and an offensive line that ranked 97th in sack rate. Perkins' mobility bailed UVa out time and time again. I don't think the market is accounting for his impact correctly to start the season.
The other side of this is Duke's recent performance against Boston College. The scoreboard shows the Blue Devils scored only six points, but mishaps for the offense in Eagles territory were the story of the game. Duke threw two interceptions, on the BC 27- and 33-yard lines. It fumbled on two different occasions on the BC 4-yard line. The Blue Devils attempted a field goal inside the BC red zone on another trip as well -- and missed. They even added a third fumble on their own 12-yard line to hand the Eagles seven points for good measure.
I project this game closer to Duke +3, and having two games against Notre Dame and BC behind it while UVa hasn't seen the field yet certainly can't hurt either.
Pick: Duke +6

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[h=3]Florida International Panthers at Liberty Flames (-6.5, 59)[/h]Johnson: I laid -13 with Western Kentucky last week against Liberty and never even sniffed a chance. The Flames absolutely dominated the game offensively against a Hilltoppers defense that ranked top 25 in opponent yards per play and top 50 in opponent-adjusted success rate in 2019. WKU returned every major piece of that defense this season. In fact, it held Louisville in its opener to fewer yards than the Miami defense did on a similar number of plays. Liberty embarrassed WKU to the tune of 487 total yards and 354 on the ground. You read that right. Auburn transfer QB Malik Willis is going to be a force for the Flames all season.
Florida International is one of the least experienced teams in the country playing in its first game after dealing with COVID-19-related issues throughout fall camp. Not only that, but it will be the Panthers' first game without QB James Morgan, whom the Jets selected in the fourth round of the NFL draft. It's rare for a team in Conference USA to roster an NFL-caliber quarterback, and historically in these instances the drop-off the following season is overwhelming. This point spread should be on the other side of the key number 7, and I'm laying it before it gets there.
Pick: Liberty -6.5


1c33fca7-e023-4088-8f74-be5bab034fc1
 

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Sports Reporter
- https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YJKN8yQ6OtQr0epHCWv8qksXjcqGp5Ng/view?usp=sharing
Victor King's Totals Tipsheet - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BDv7N8gQDphUAeIbJnXcGsGOyjdmIAZu/edit

VSiN Point Spread Weekly - https://drive.google.com/file/d/13i9...ew?usp=sharing
Winning Points -https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Uv0MYVovJxb8SiBFX1d9Lcx4PIu2ahMD/view

Podcast
Marc Lawrence's September 23 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread - https://soundcloud.com/marclawrencepodcast/2020-09-23-marc-lawrenceagainst-the-spread
 

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Does anyone know if the Wiseguy Contest/Report is taking place this year?

Always looked forward to seeing it in the newsletters.

Thanks and best of luck.
 

Let's go Brandon!
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CKO Priority Picks and Preferences

11 rated play on Kentucky
Kentucky 23
Auburn 21
SEC sources not sure if Auburn is up to mounting a serious challenge in West this fall, especially if soph QB Bo Nix doesn’t make progress on the learning
curve. Though Nix broke in with a bang last season when leading a last-second win over Oregon in the opener, he only need 16 TDP all season, shaky efforts cost the Tigers dearly in losses to Florida and LSU, and was thoroughly outplayed by Minnesota counterpart Tanner Morgan in the Outback Bowl. There are further questions entering 2020 for Gus Malzahn, who’s looking at a complete rebuild of his OL. Meanwhile, regional observers insist UK’s recent ascent under Mark Stoops (18-8 SU since 2018) has staying power with the Cats now casting a wider recruiting net. While the O hummed with former WR Lynn Bowden at QB in 2019, former starter Terry Wilson is back from injury, and most of the playmakers from one of the best SEC defenses return.

10 rated play on South Alabama
UAB 20
South Alabama 26
Local observers giving high grades to South Alabama and 3rd-year HC Steve Campbell, as his team has generated 479 ypg over the first two games, and
defense has improved on several fronts. USA has been tough lately at home (and new Hancock Whitney Stadium this year), covering 5 straight as host, and Jags looking to avenge last season’s Sept. 21 loss to the Blazers. While athletic QB Desmond Trotter is iffy with a shoulder injury, Chance Lovertich, more of a pocket passer, has completed 67% of his passes for 326 yds. and 3 scores in relief. USA capable of pulling mild upset, as solid effort against Tulane shows USA athletes have been upgraded under Campbell’s watch.

10 rated play on Jacksonville
Miami 20
Jacksonville 31
Routinely downgraded by most pundits entering the season, the Jags have looked far from the worst NFL entry across the first two weeks. Ridding the roster of the Leonard Fournette distractions has lied a huge burden, with eager Illinois State rookie FA RB James Robinson (102 YR last week vs. Titans) producing with a smile, while Colorado rookie wideout Laviska Shenault is already emerging as a dangerous target for QB Gardner Minshew, who’s completing better than 75% of his passes with 6 TDs thus far. Now, HC Doug Marrone is looking for a pass rush after the J’ville D has recorded just one sack the first two weeks, but the Jags also don’t have Derrick Henry to worry about against Miami as they did a week ago vs. Titans. If this comes down to QBs, believe underrated Minshew (7-7 as starter) more likely to deliver winning points than Ryan Fitzpatrick, always one pick away from falling into the abyss.

10 rated play on Texas State
Texas State 23
Boston College 30
Tough sandwich spot for BC bunch that is probably riding on Cloud 9 for new HC Jeff Hafley after an inspiring 26-6 opening win at Duke. But with important ACC showdown vs. North Carolina on deck, this looks a classic flat spot for the Eagles, who could be excused for overlooking a Sun Belt visitor from far-away San Marcos. Which might be dangerous, as this looks a much-improved TSU for second-year HC Jake Spavital, whose new-look Spread might get Memphis transfer and opening-week pilot Brady McBride back soon after being sidelined past couple of weeks following impressive debut against SMU. Spavital has another alternative if forced to go with backup Tyler Vi, a starter for much of 2019 who has thrown 6 TDP in relief and engineered rout at ULM. Sun Belt sides have already made their mark in 2020, and not sure BC can count on Bobcats self-destructing in red zone as Blue Devils did last week.

10 rated play on So Mississippi
Tulane 24
So Mississippi 31
Expect last ditch effort to salvage season from Southern Miss, which has already gotten its coach fired (well, maybe he got himself fired) and will be another team looking for revenge. Certainly Golden Eagle QB Jack Abraham hasn’t forgotten being knocked out of last year’s Armed Forces after leading USM to an early lead (13-0 in the first Q), completing 17 of 23 passes for 167 yards and a TD while running for a score as well. Replacement Tate Whatley came in and hit just 9 of 22 throws with 2 ints. as Tulane stormed back to score 30 straight. The Golden Eagles have been decent against the run, allowing only 4.1 ypc, and return 4 of their top 5 tacklers, so should be able to contain Tulane side that’s relied on its ground game (234 ypg, 5.6 ypc) because QB Keon Howard’s accuracy is suspect (44%).

9 Rated play on Louisville (3.5) OVER Pittsburgh U
Like Louisville’s chances of bouncing back from dropping a shootout vs. Miami, as the Hurricanes have more playmakers than Pi. Cards 516 yds. on offense and 34 points good signs.

9 Rated play on Texas (-16.5) OVER Texas Tech
HC Tom Herman took no prisoners against UTEP and there is little love lost between Austin and Lubbock alumni. Herman has the weapons and will use them for 60 minutes.

9 Rated play on Liberty (-7) OVER Florida Intl
Flame HC Hugh Freeze has recruited well at Liberty, convincing ex-Auburn QB Malik Willis to come in and run his offense with positive results.

9 Rated play on LA Rams (3) OVER Buffalo
Ram attack clicking as Goff completing 69% and RB Malcolm Brown & Darrell Henderson Jr. providing a run threat (213 YR, 3 TDR through 2 games).

9 Rated play on Tennessee (-2.5) OVER Minnesota
Titans now 11-4 SU since Ryan Tannehill became the QB last October and Minny hasn’t replaced Diggs and QB Kirk Cousins is more concerned with the
numbers involving his bank account than his QB rang.

Totals
Detroit @ Arizona over 43.5
Arizona HC Arians’ teams (Cards and Bucs) now 29-12 “over” last 41 and Card QB Murray like a kid opening presents at Christmas with the team’s new
weapons. Lion D vulnerable and QB Stafford can still sling it a little.

Kansas City @ Baltimore over 52
Chiefs are a Ferrari with no brakes, Baltimore a semi-truck with 14 gears forward and no reverse. Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson didn’t win the MVPs on their good looks (well, maybe Mahomes).
 

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