'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 3 college football picks, bets, nuggets
College football is underway in 2020 and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Here is your guide to Week 3 of the CFB season with the two college football analysts.
Records
Stanford Steve 4-0
The Bear 1-3
The plays
No. 17 Miami Hurricanes at No. 18 Louisville Cardinals (-2.5, 64.5)
Stanford Steve: Both teams looked impressive offensively last week in their season debuts. New Canes offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee was one of my favorite hires in the offseason, and he showed why in his first game calling plays in South Florida last Thursday night as Miami rushed for over 330 yards in a win over UAB. D'Eriq King showed some flashes with some splash plays too. But, when I look at this matchup, I just trust the Cardinals more. I like the coaching staff as a whole more than "The U," and I also trust the accuracy of Louisville QB Micale Cunningham, along with the versatility of their offense. It will be an awesome game to watch, as both teams have some serious speed at the skill positions.
Pick: Louisville money line -140 (Louisville 31 Miami 28)
The Bear: Yes, the Canes have lost 23 of their past 26 games away from home vs. ranked teams, but they also appear to have their best QB situation in a long time and an ability to control the line of scrimmage and run the ball. Sure, it's just one game, but there are positive signs, and King should start to make more throws. Defensively, the Canes gave up only one drive longer than 34 yards against UAB and spent a lot of time in the UAB backfield despite just one sack. Louisville's offensive line couldn't get a consistent push against Western Kentucky and will have to play better against a much better defensive front.
Pick: Miami +2.5
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack (-2.5, 53)
Stanford Steve: Last week on the Stanford Steve & The Bear podcast we talked about when a team that opens the season against a team that has a game already under its belt, the team that has played a game has a decided advantage. So, that is the thinking here. The Demon Deacons are off a loss vs. No. 1 Clemson, where they did cover (thanks to Dabo Swinney calling off the dogs earlier than he is accustomed to). But the idea of the Wolfpack giving points to an in-state division foe that already has played a game and also has an overachieving coaching staff year after year, I'll take the road dog here, plus the points.
Pick: Wake Forest +2.5 (Wake Forest, 26 NC State 23)
Stanford Steve & The Bear podcast
Stanford Steve and The Bear react to the Big Ten reinstating the season. Then, they discuss some of last week's games before getting into this week's slate. Plus, NFL Survivor Pool, U.S. Open and NBA Conference Finals talk. Listen!
The Bear: The fact that Wake has a game under its belt is huge here. Predictably, the Deacs struggled running the ball and slowing down Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne & Co., but they will not face another offense nearly as prolific this year. Remember too that NC State had issues that paused practice and moved the Wolfpack's originally scheduled opener. Coming off a poor season where a lot went wrong -- along with a lot of questions this season -- I'll back the team with a game under its belt.
Pick: Wake Forest +2.5
Syracuse Orange at No. 25 Pittsburgh Panthers (-21.5, 50)
The Bear: We expected Pitt's defense to be good this year, and it didn't disappoint in the opener against an overmatched Austin Peay. We also expected Syracuse to struggle this season, and that's exactly what happened at North Carolina, where the Orange gave up seven sacks, ran for 68 yards on 35 carries and completed only 16 of 38 passes. Syracuse couldn't manage a TD despite enjoying a 3-1 turnover edge. Last year, Pitt posted nine sacks vs. a makeshift O-line, and it again could be a long day for the Syracuse offense.
Pick: Pitt -21.5
Boston College Eagles at Duke Blue Devils (-6, 52)
The Bear: I'm not sure after last week if I was guilty of underrating Duke, overrating Notre Dame or a little of both. But I do think laying points with Duke is a risky proposition, seeing as the Blue Devils have lost six of their past nine games outright in which they were favored and covered only four of the past 14. I also think head coach Jeff Hafley will do wonders for BC defensively, and Phil Jurkovec being eligible should solidify the QB position.
Pick: BC +6
Navy Midshipmen at Tulane Green Wave (-7, 49)
Bettor Days
Hosted by Mike Greenberg, the series uses in-depth interviews and dramatic recreations to relive the wildest, saddest, funniest betting tales and their unexpected repercussions. Watch on ESPN+
The Bear: Tulane cranked it up in the third quarter last week in its comeback win at South Alabama. That Green Wave offense will give Navy a lot of problems this week. Yes, I do think Navy will put forth a much better effort, but I'm not sure if this is going to be a good Navy team or not. It seemed to be lacking up front on both sides of the ball, and against a solid Tulane defensive front it could be another long night.
Pick: Tulane -7
No. 14 UCF Knights (-7.5, 61.5) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Stanford Steve: Just because I want to punish myself. Under the total! If it wins, we give another one next week.
Pick: Under 61.5 (UCF 33, Georgia Tech 25)
Bear Bytes
Road woes for Hurricanes
Dating back to 2005, Miami is 3-23 away from home vs. ranked teams. The three wins came vs. West Virginia in the 2016 Russell Athletic Bowl, at Duke in 2015 and at Florida State in 2009. Neither Duke nor FSU ended the season ranked.
The Hurricanes are 8-14 in their last 22 games against Power 5 opponents and just 9-18 ATS in their last 27 games vs. Power 5 teams.
Beware of Duke as a favorite?
The Blue Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite vs. FBS opponents, losing six of those nine outright.
Syracuse used to underdog role
Pitt hasn't been this big of a favorite against an FBS opponent since the Panthers were favored by 24 over Syracuse in 2016. They won that game 76-61.
Syracuse is 3-8 in its last 11 games against FBS opponents and is an underdog for the 10th time in its last 12 games. Syracuse is just 2-7 ATS in its previous nine games as a 'dog, including losses by 25, 22, 18, 35 and 43 points.
Navy poised to rally?
Its been 21 games since Navy suffered consecutive ATS losses. The Mids failed to cover vs. Temple and Houston in October 2018 as underdogs. Navy lost to BYU 55-3 as a slight underdog in the season opener.
Notre Dame big favorites again
This is the first time since October 2018 that Notre Dame is a 20-point favorite in consecutive games. The Irish didn't cover wither those games and didnt cover vs Duke last week. Under Brian Kelly, Notre Dame is 11-9-2 ATS as a 20-point favorite.
Tulsa has been a cover machine
Tulsa has covered six of its last eight games as an underdog. Last year Tulsa was a 'dog seven times and a double-digit dog in every instance. The Golden Hurricane covered five, won one outright as a 16.5 point dog against UCF and two other losses by one and six points, respectively.
NC State sporting ugly recent ATS record
NC State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games and went 1-5 ATS as a favorite last year, losing three of the five games outright in which it was was favored over an FBS opponent.
Wake Forest has won five of its last eight games as an underdog versus teams not named Clemson.
UCF solid vs. Power 5 opponents
Since 2017, UCF has faced six Power 5 opponents and won and covered four of the games. However, in the last instance last season, UCF lost to Pitt as a 10-point favorite.
College football is underway in 2020 and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Here is your guide to Week 3 of the CFB season with the two college football analysts.
Records
Stanford Steve 4-0
The Bear 1-3
The plays
No. 17 Miami Hurricanes at No. 18 Louisville Cardinals (-2.5, 64.5)
Stanford Steve: Both teams looked impressive offensively last week in their season debuts. New Canes offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee was one of my favorite hires in the offseason, and he showed why in his first game calling plays in South Florida last Thursday night as Miami rushed for over 330 yards in a win over UAB. D'Eriq King showed some flashes with some splash plays too. But, when I look at this matchup, I just trust the Cardinals more. I like the coaching staff as a whole more than "The U," and I also trust the accuracy of Louisville QB Micale Cunningham, along with the versatility of their offense. It will be an awesome game to watch, as both teams have some serious speed at the skill positions.
Pick: Louisville money line -140 (Louisville 31 Miami 28)
The Bear: Yes, the Canes have lost 23 of their past 26 games away from home vs. ranked teams, but they also appear to have their best QB situation in a long time and an ability to control the line of scrimmage and run the ball. Sure, it's just one game, but there are positive signs, and King should start to make more throws. Defensively, the Canes gave up only one drive longer than 34 yards against UAB and spent a lot of time in the UAB backfield despite just one sack. Louisville's offensive line couldn't get a consistent push against Western Kentucky and will have to play better against a much better defensive front.
Pick: Miami +2.5
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack (-2.5, 53)
Stanford Steve: Last week on the Stanford Steve & The Bear podcast we talked about when a team that opens the season against a team that has a game already under its belt, the team that has played a game has a decided advantage. So, that is the thinking here. The Demon Deacons are off a loss vs. No. 1 Clemson, where they did cover (thanks to Dabo Swinney calling off the dogs earlier than he is accustomed to). But the idea of the Wolfpack giving points to an in-state division foe that already has played a game and also has an overachieving coaching staff year after year, I'll take the road dog here, plus the points.
Pick: Wake Forest +2.5 (Wake Forest, 26 NC State 23)
Stanford Steve & The Bear podcast
Stanford Steve and The Bear react to the Big Ten reinstating the season. Then, they discuss some of last week's games before getting into this week's slate. Plus, NFL Survivor Pool, U.S. Open and NBA Conference Finals talk. Listen!
The Bear: The fact that Wake has a game under its belt is huge here. Predictably, the Deacs struggled running the ball and slowing down Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne & Co., but they will not face another offense nearly as prolific this year. Remember too that NC State had issues that paused practice and moved the Wolfpack's originally scheduled opener. Coming off a poor season where a lot went wrong -- along with a lot of questions this season -- I'll back the team with a game under its belt.
Pick: Wake Forest +2.5
Syracuse Orange at No. 25 Pittsburgh Panthers (-21.5, 50)
The Bear: We expected Pitt's defense to be good this year, and it didn't disappoint in the opener against an overmatched Austin Peay. We also expected Syracuse to struggle this season, and that's exactly what happened at North Carolina, where the Orange gave up seven sacks, ran for 68 yards on 35 carries and completed only 16 of 38 passes. Syracuse couldn't manage a TD despite enjoying a 3-1 turnover edge. Last year, Pitt posted nine sacks vs. a makeshift O-line, and it again could be a long day for the Syracuse offense.
Pick: Pitt -21.5
Boston College Eagles at Duke Blue Devils (-6, 52)
The Bear: I'm not sure after last week if I was guilty of underrating Duke, overrating Notre Dame or a little of both. But I do think laying points with Duke is a risky proposition, seeing as the Blue Devils have lost six of their past nine games outright in which they were favored and covered only four of the past 14. I also think head coach Jeff Hafley will do wonders for BC defensively, and Phil Jurkovec being eligible should solidify the QB position.
Pick: BC +6
Navy Midshipmen at Tulane Green Wave (-7, 49)
Bettor Days
Hosted by Mike Greenberg, the series uses in-depth interviews and dramatic recreations to relive the wildest, saddest, funniest betting tales and their unexpected repercussions. Watch on ESPN+
The Bear: Tulane cranked it up in the third quarter last week in its comeback win at South Alabama. That Green Wave offense will give Navy a lot of problems this week. Yes, I do think Navy will put forth a much better effort, but I'm not sure if this is going to be a good Navy team or not. It seemed to be lacking up front on both sides of the ball, and against a solid Tulane defensive front it could be another long night.
Pick: Tulane -7
No. 14 UCF Knights (-7.5, 61.5) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Stanford Steve: Just because I want to punish myself. Under the total! If it wins, we give another one next week.
Pick: Under 61.5 (UCF 33, Georgia Tech 25)
Bear Bytes
Road woes for Hurricanes
Dating back to 2005, Miami is 3-23 away from home vs. ranked teams. The three wins came vs. West Virginia in the 2016 Russell Athletic Bowl, at Duke in 2015 and at Florida State in 2009. Neither Duke nor FSU ended the season ranked.
The Hurricanes are 8-14 in their last 22 games against Power 5 opponents and just 9-18 ATS in their last 27 games vs. Power 5 teams.
Beware of Duke as a favorite?
The Blue Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite vs. FBS opponents, losing six of those nine outright.
Syracuse used to underdog role
Pitt hasn't been this big of a favorite against an FBS opponent since the Panthers were favored by 24 over Syracuse in 2016. They won that game 76-61.
Syracuse is 3-8 in its last 11 games against FBS opponents and is an underdog for the 10th time in its last 12 games. Syracuse is just 2-7 ATS in its previous nine games as a 'dog, including losses by 25, 22, 18, 35 and 43 points.
Navy poised to rally?
Its been 21 games since Navy suffered consecutive ATS losses. The Mids failed to cover vs. Temple and Houston in October 2018 as underdogs. Navy lost to BYU 55-3 as a slight underdog in the season opener.
Notre Dame big favorites again
This is the first time since October 2018 that Notre Dame is a 20-point favorite in consecutive games. The Irish didn't cover wither those games and didnt cover vs Duke last week. Under Brian Kelly, Notre Dame is 11-9-2 ATS as a 20-point favorite.
Tulsa has been a cover machine
Tulsa has covered six of its last eight games as an underdog. Last year Tulsa was a 'dog seven times and a double-digit dog in every instance. The Golden Hurricane covered five, won one outright as a 16.5 point dog against UCF and two other losses by one and six points, respectively.
NC State sporting ugly recent ATS record
NC State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games and went 1-5 ATS as a favorite last year, losing three of the five games outright in which it was was favored over an FBS opponent.
Wake Forest has won five of its last eight games as an underdog versus teams not named Clemson.
UCF solid vs. Power 5 opponents
Since 2017, UCF has faced six Power 5 opponents and won and covered four of the games. However, in the last instance last season, UCF lost to Pitt as a 10-point favorite.
