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[h=1]Stanford Steve and The Bear: Our thoughts on Clemson-LSU[/h]The apex of the college football season is finally upon us. Defending champion Clemson (14-0) will take on Heisman winner Joe Burrow and LSU (14-0) for the College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday.
[h=2]CFP National Championship[/h]
[h=3]Clemson Tigers vs. LSU Tigers (-6, 69.5)[/h](8 p.m. ET Monday on ESPN at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans)
Stanford Steve (43-36-3 overall; 4-6 in bowls): There was plenty of talk after the Fiesta Bowl questioning how Clemson would match up with LSU, and plenty of people thought Ohio State would have matched up better because of the physicality the Buckeyes showed in Glendale -- which many thought was the best way to beat LSU.
I differed on that opinion, and here is why: I think to beat LSU, you must be able to score with them. Led by Trevor Lawrence, Clemson's offense has the goods to do so, especially with the toys he has to play with at running back and wide receiver. I'm just not sure the Tigers from Clemson have enough to limit the Tigers from Baton Rouge enough to win, but I'll take the points with Dabo's boys in a close one.
Pick: Clemson +6 (LSU 36, Clemson 33)
The Bear (42-43-2 overall; 6-9 in bowls): Unlike past years when I felt very confident about my CFP Championship Game ATS pick, this year has me going back and forth. Do I really want to get in front of the LSU train? Or is the train a byproduct of recency bias where LSU played a tapped-out Texas A&M team, a depleted Georgia offense and what was a shell of an Oklahoma team that wouldn't have been close to the playoff in other years. But what if what we saw -- or didn't see -- from Clemson's WRs vs Ohio State, and the number of big plays Clemson allowed to Ohio State were foreshadowing what's to come Monday night?
The line keeps going up, yet it sounds like nearly every sharp/wiseguy is taking Clemson. Are these Tigers a true sharp dog? After all, Dabo Swinney is 8-1 ATS and 7-2 straight up as an underdog. Or is Clemson a "dog with fleas" and backers are overlooking the obvious dominance and home-field edge LSU has here?
There really isn't an outcome that would surprise me. I could see either team winning by double-digits. After all, who thought Clemson would win by four TDs last year? And both teams have been drubbing people all year. And while LSU hasn't covered a couple of obscenely big numbers, Clemson has covered every closing number vs FBS opponents since the one-point win at North Carolina. So again, one can talk themselves onto either side with little effort. But if you just want to make a simple pregame wager, I guess I would say take Clemson +6 based on pure numbers, which I'll outline below, but I don't have the same confidence this year as I did last year when picking Clemson to beat Alabama, or any of the previous championship games. This is as conflicted of a choice I've had since the 2010 game between Auburn and Oregon (and I landed on Oregon that night).
I'd focus on some point-spread props Monday night. Prior to the playoff, most people would have made Clemson a small favorite over LSU. Now Clemson is a six-point dog. Yes, LSU rolled Oklahoma, and Clemson won a physical game with Ohio State, in a game which some people felt the better team that night didn't win. So I can understand a small adjustment, making LSU a 3.5-point favorite or so. But now we're looking at about an 8-point adjustment. And at DraftKings currently, one can lay 1.5 with Clemson and get +175 back. However if the line move is correct, I get the sense LSU will win by double digits. And you can get +140 at DK on LSU -10 and +160 at -11.5. So if you're up for some gambling, play the Clemson -1.5 and LSU -10 point-spread props and if one comes in, you're a winner. Obviously the risk is there to lose both, but in the 21 BCS and CFP Championship Games, 18 have seen the spread not matter -- we've had nine underdogs win outright, nine favorites win and cover, and just three favorites win and fail to cover. However, all three of those have come since the 2013 season -- Florida State over Auburn (2013), Alabama over Clemson (2015) and Alabama over Georgia (2017). Dogs have covered six straight in the title game since Alabama throttled Notre Dame in 2012.
Also, I think there will be points early in this game. Clemson likely will not come out and struggle offensively like it did vs Ohio State. And I also think LSU will score in the first half. Over 34.5 first-half points -122 is available at DK. That's something to consider. And then watch the second half. In the last three CFP Games, Clemson has more QB sacks in the second half (9) than points allowed (7). So Brent Venables has done a good job of making adjustments at halftime.
In the first-TD market, I'd take a look at Joe Burrow at +1200, as his legs can be a weapon and elude Clemson's pass rush -- see what Burrow did to Georgia in the SEC title game. WR Tee Higgins didn't have the best of games vs Ohio State. But he can be had at +625 to score the game's first TD. Prior to a 4-catch, 33-yard game vs the Buckeyes, Higgins had 10 TDs in the previous five games and scored in both CFP games last year.
Might take a look at Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 99.5 rush yards. He's been very dangerous as a pass catcher the second half of the season, and I think that might be the preferred method of using the very talented back here.
One would think there would be a long TD scored here. In Clemson's three CFP games with Trevor Lawrence at QB, the Tigers have scored 14 TDs (1 came from the defense). Five were greater than 50 yards. LSU had two TDs north of 40 yards in the semifinal vs Oklahoma. Not sure what other numbers are out there, but DK has 64.5. I'd probably pass at that number, but if you can find something lower, it could be worth a play.
Pick: Play the props
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]Stanford Steve
LSU RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 99.5 rush yards
Clemson WR Justyn Ross over 69.5 receiving yards
Clemson WR Amari Rodgers over 35.5 yards
The Bear
Clemson -1.5 (+175) with LSU -10.5 (+140) at DraftKings
1st half over 34.5 (-122) at DraftKings
1st-TD options: Burrow (+1200), Clemson WR Tee Higgins (+625)
LSU RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 99.5 rush yards
[h=2]CFP National Championship[/h]
[h=3]Clemson Tigers vs. LSU Tigers (-6, 69.5)[/h](8 p.m. ET Monday on ESPN at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans)
Stanford Steve (43-36-3 overall; 4-6 in bowls): There was plenty of talk after the Fiesta Bowl questioning how Clemson would match up with LSU, and plenty of people thought Ohio State would have matched up better because of the physicality the Buckeyes showed in Glendale -- which many thought was the best way to beat LSU.
I differed on that opinion, and here is why: I think to beat LSU, you must be able to score with them. Led by Trevor Lawrence, Clemson's offense has the goods to do so, especially with the toys he has to play with at running back and wide receiver. I'm just not sure the Tigers from Clemson have enough to limit the Tigers from Baton Rouge enough to win, but I'll take the points with Dabo's boys in a close one.
Pick: Clemson +6 (LSU 36, Clemson 33)
The Bear (42-43-2 overall; 6-9 in bowls): Unlike past years when I felt very confident about my CFP Championship Game ATS pick, this year has me going back and forth. Do I really want to get in front of the LSU train? Or is the train a byproduct of recency bias where LSU played a tapped-out Texas A&M team, a depleted Georgia offense and what was a shell of an Oklahoma team that wouldn't have been close to the playoff in other years. But what if what we saw -- or didn't see -- from Clemson's WRs vs Ohio State, and the number of big plays Clemson allowed to Ohio State were foreshadowing what's to come Monday night?
The line keeps going up, yet it sounds like nearly every sharp/wiseguy is taking Clemson. Are these Tigers a true sharp dog? After all, Dabo Swinney is 8-1 ATS and 7-2 straight up as an underdog. Or is Clemson a "dog with fleas" and backers are overlooking the obvious dominance and home-field edge LSU has here?
There really isn't an outcome that would surprise me. I could see either team winning by double-digits. After all, who thought Clemson would win by four TDs last year? And both teams have been drubbing people all year. And while LSU hasn't covered a couple of obscenely big numbers, Clemson has covered every closing number vs FBS opponents since the one-point win at North Carolina. So again, one can talk themselves onto either side with little effort. But if you just want to make a simple pregame wager, I guess I would say take Clemson +6 based on pure numbers, which I'll outline below, but I don't have the same confidence this year as I did last year when picking Clemson to beat Alabama, or any of the previous championship games. This is as conflicted of a choice I've had since the 2010 game between Auburn and Oregon (and I landed on Oregon that night).
I'd focus on some point-spread props Monday night. Prior to the playoff, most people would have made Clemson a small favorite over LSU. Now Clemson is a six-point dog. Yes, LSU rolled Oklahoma, and Clemson won a physical game with Ohio State, in a game which some people felt the better team that night didn't win. So I can understand a small adjustment, making LSU a 3.5-point favorite or so. But now we're looking at about an 8-point adjustment. And at DraftKings currently, one can lay 1.5 with Clemson and get +175 back. However if the line move is correct, I get the sense LSU will win by double digits. And you can get +140 at DK on LSU -10 and +160 at -11.5. So if you're up for some gambling, play the Clemson -1.5 and LSU -10 point-spread props and if one comes in, you're a winner. Obviously the risk is there to lose both, but in the 21 BCS and CFP Championship Games, 18 have seen the spread not matter -- we've had nine underdogs win outright, nine favorites win and cover, and just three favorites win and fail to cover. However, all three of those have come since the 2013 season -- Florida State over Auburn (2013), Alabama over Clemson (2015) and Alabama over Georgia (2017). Dogs have covered six straight in the title game since Alabama throttled Notre Dame in 2012.
Also, I think there will be points early in this game. Clemson likely will not come out and struggle offensively like it did vs Ohio State. And I also think LSU will score in the first half. Over 34.5 first-half points -122 is available at DK. That's something to consider. And then watch the second half. In the last three CFP Games, Clemson has more QB sacks in the second half (9) than points allowed (7). So Brent Venables has done a good job of making adjustments at halftime.
In the first-TD market, I'd take a look at Joe Burrow at +1200, as his legs can be a weapon and elude Clemson's pass rush -- see what Burrow did to Georgia in the SEC title game. WR Tee Higgins didn't have the best of games vs Ohio State. But he can be had at +625 to score the game's first TD. Prior to a 4-catch, 33-yard game vs the Buckeyes, Higgins had 10 TDs in the previous five games and scored in both CFP games last year.
Might take a look at Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 99.5 rush yards. He's been very dangerous as a pass catcher the second half of the season, and I think that might be the preferred method of using the very talented back here.
One would think there would be a long TD scored here. In Clemson's three CFP games with Trevor Lawrence at QB, the Tigers have scored 14 TDs (1 came from the defense). Five were greater than 50 yards. LSU had two TDs north of 40 yards in the semifinal vs Oklahoma. Not sure what other numbers are out there, but DK has 64.5. I'd probably pass at that number, but if you can find something lower, it could be worth a play.
Pick: Play the props
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]Stanford Steve
LSU RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 99.5 rush yards
Clemson WR Justyn Ross over 69.5 receiving yards
Clemson WR Amari Rodgers over 35.5 yards
The Bear
Clemson -1.5 (+175) with LSU -10.5 (+140) at DraftKings
1st half over 34.5 (-122) at DraftKings
1st-TD options: Burrow (+1200), Clemson WR Tee Higgins (+625)
LSU RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 99.5 rush yards
[h=1]CFP national championship game: Best bets for Clemson-LSU[/h]The college football season has reached its crescendo. Clemson (14-0) will take on LSU (14-0) for the College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday.
The game will offer plenty of betting opportunities. ESPN betting analysts Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian, Bill Connelly and Phil Steele are here to offer their best bets for the game.
Overall records
Connelly: 32-21-2 (2-2 in bowls)
Steele: 36-44-1 (6-6)
Johnson: 36-28-1 (2-4)
Kezirian: 49-39-1 (2-4)
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, unless otherwise noted.
[h=2]CFP National Championship[/h]
[h=3]Clemson Tigers vs. LSU Tigers (-6, 69.5)[/h](8 p.m. ET Monday on ESPN at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans)
Connelly: I have three reasons for leaning toward Clemson in this one:
1. The line is a mirage. Although it feels like a -6 line is likely to trend slightly toward the favorite (because the 7-point win is on the table), six-point favorites are historically right at 50% against the spread since 1978, per ESPN Stats & Info.
2. SP+ is 56% ATS this season in games in which it disagrees with the spread by at least three points, and the difference is right at three in Clemson's favor for this one (it projects a 32-29 LSU win). Even if we frame that differently, there is still enough of a difference to matter. SP+ is 54% ATS when it disagrees in the 2.8- to 3.2-point range, for instance.
3. SP+ has repeatedly underestimated Clemson this season. Because of the Tigers' steady ability to shift from third to fifth gear midseason, it has been underselling them because of merely good early-season performances. Just as Clemson is 8-0 ATS since the North Carolina game, SP+ is 0-8 ATS in picking Clemson's opponent each week. Well, now it's picking Clemson. It would be downright rude if Dabo Swinney's team chose this moment to finally underachieve.
Pick: Clemson +6, +185 money line
Steele: If this game were a semifinal, the line would be close to a pick 'em, but after LSU destroyed Oklahoma and Clemson needed a comeback to beat Ohio State, the Tigers from Louisiana are favored by nearly a touchdown. LSU has faced the much tougher schedule, with six wins over top-10 teams, while Clemson has just one. This game is in New Orleans, so LSU will have a clear home-field edge.
The skill players on both sides are elite, but LSU won the Joe Moore Award for the top offensive line in the country and has an advantage on offense with a stronger front. Dave Aranda and Brent Venables are two of the most talented defensive coordinators in the country, but each unit has shown some flaws. Clemson has held foes to 152 yards per game below their season average (No. 1 in the FBS) but gave up 516 yards to Ohio State. The Tigers have allowed just 270 yards per game in their past four games, but four times this season, they allowed more than 450 yards in a game.
Dabo Swinney is an outstanding 8-1 ATS as an underdog in the postseason, with six outright upsets. I find it tough to go against either squad, so I will lean with the over.
Pick: Over 69.5
Kezirian: I'm not putting a ton of stock in Clemson's offensive struggles against Ohio State. Although the Buckeyes controlled the line of scrimmage, I attribute the limited points by both teams to the Fiesta Bowl's incredibly poor field conditions. It was inexcusable to see players slipping so much. This championship game will be played at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, and I expect a showcase of speed that favors the offense, similar to what we saw in the Peach Bowl (also a domed stadium).
LSU quarterback Joe Burrow posted one of the sport's greatest seasons ever, and there's no reason to think his Tigers will experience that much trouble. Plus, running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be much healthier after being limited against Oklahoma due to a hamstring injury. As for the LSU defense, we've seen it appear leaky against respectable offenses. Texas, Florida, Alabama and Ole Miss each scored at least 28 points. I concede that not everything is apples to apples, and every game is different, but this defense is nowhere close to as dominant as the offense. Clemson still ranks fourth in offensive efficiency, so I expect the Tigers from South Carolina and their top-tier skill position players to be capable of scoring enough points.
Pick: Over 69.5
Johnson: If this was a month ago, I would have flown anywhere in the world to get Clemson at this price; LSU would have been the favorite everywhere. This is the first week the entire season that I have had LSU rated better, but not by much. Dominant wins against Oklahoma and Georgia have called for adjustments, but I still only project them to win the game 50.7% of the time. If you want to give LSU a little something extra for playing the game closer to home, that's fine, but it doesn't warrant this spread being six points.
Clemson is my top-graded defense and rank No. 1 in rushing success rate -- the most important factors when facing LSU. If any team can slow down this offense, it's the best defense in the country led by Venables. Where has the LSU defense been susceptible at times over the course of the season? The ground game. Via SportsSource Analytics, Clemson running back Travis Etienne leads the country in yards after contact and has forced missed tackles at a record 45% rate. When a future No. 1 NFL draft pick in Trevor Lawrence is under center paired with Etienne and the best defense in the game -- coached by Dabo freakin' Swinney -- it's hard to imagine that team getting six points is the fair price.
Pick: Clemson +6
The game will offer plenty of betting opportunities. ESPN betting analysts Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian, Bill Connelly and Phil Steele are here to offer their best bets for the game.
Overall records
Connelly: 32-21-2 (2-2 in bowls)
Steele: 36-44-1 (6-6)
Johnson: 36-28-1 (2-4)
Kezirian: 49-39-1 (2-4)
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, unless otherwise noted.
[h=2]CFP National Championship[/h]
[h=3]Clemson Tigers vs. LSU Tigers (-6, 69.5)[/h](8 p.m. ET Monday on ESPN at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans)
Connelly: I have three reasons for leaning toward Clemson in this one:
1. The line is a mirage. Although it feels like a -6 line is likely to trend slightly toward the favorite (because the 7-point win is on the table), six-point favorites are historically right at 50% against the spread since 1978, per ESPN Stats & Info.
2. SP+ is 56% ATS this season in games in which it disagrees with the spread by at least three points, and the difference is right at three in Clemson's favor for this one (it projects a 32-29 LSU win). Even if we frame that differently, there is still enough of a difference to matter. SP+ is 54% ATS when it disagrees in the 2.8- to 3.2-point range, for instance.
3. SP+ has repeatedly underestimated Clemson this season. Because of the Tigers' steady ability to shift from third to fifth gear midseason, it has been underselling them because of merely good early-season performances. Just as Clemson is 8-0 ATS since the North Carolina game, SP+ is 0-8 ATS in picking Clemson's opponent each week. Well, now it's picking Clemson. It would be downright rude if Dabo Swinney's team chose this moment to finally underachieve.
Pick: Clemson +6, +185 money line
Steele: If this game were a semifinal, the line would be close to a pick 'em, but after LSU destroyed Oklahoma and Clemson needed a comeback to beat Ohio State, the Tigers from Louisiana are favored by nearly a touchdown. LSU has faced the much tougher schedule, with six wins over top-10 teams, while Clemson has just one. This game is in New Orleans, so LSU will have a clear home-field edge.
The skill players on both sides are elite, but LSU won the Joe Moore Award for the top offensive line in the country and has an advantage on offense with a stronger front. Dave Aranda and Brent Venables are two of the most talented defensive coordinators in the country, but each unit has shown some flaws. Clemson has held foes to 152 yards per game below their season average (No. 1 in the FBS) but gave up 516 yards to Ohio State. The Tigers have allowed just 270 yards per game in their past four games, but four times this season, they allowed more than 450 yards in a game.
Dabo Swinney is an outstanding 8-1 ATS as an underdog in the postseason, with six outright upsets. I find it tough to go against either squad, so I will lean with the over.
Pick: Over 69.5
Kezirian: I'm not putting a ton of stock in Clemson's offensive struggles against Ohio State. Although the Buckeyes controlled the line of scrimmage, I attribute the limited points by both teams to the Fiesta Bowl's incredibly poor field conditions. It was inexcusable to see players slipping so much. This championship game will be played at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, and I expect a showcase of speed that favors the offense, similar to what we saw in the Peach Bowl (also a domed stadium).
LSU quarterback Joe Burrow posted one of the sport's greatest seasons ever, and there's no reason to think his Tigers will experience that much trouble. Plus, running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be much healthier after being limited against Oklahoma due to a hamstring injury. As for the LSU defense, we've seen it appear leaky against respectable offenses. Texas, Florida, Alabama and Ole Miss each scored at least 28 points. I concede that not everything is apples to apples, and every game is different, but this defense is nowhere close to as dominant as the offense. Clemson still ranks fourth in offensive efficiency, so I expect the Tigers from South Carolina and their top-tier skill position players to be capable of scoring enough points.
Pick: Over 69.5
Johnson: If this was a month ago, I would have flown anywhere in the world to get Clemson at this price; LSU would have been the favorite everywhere. This is the first week the entire season that I have had LSU rated better, but not by much. Dominant wins against Oklahoma and Georgia have called for adjustments, but I still only project them to win the game 50.7% of the time. If you want to give LSU a little something extra for playing the game closer to home, that's fine, but it doesn't warrant this spread being six points.
Clemson is my top-graded defense and rank No. 1 in rushing success rate -- the most important factors when facing LSU. If any team can slow down this offense, it's the best defense in the country led by Venables. Where has the LSU defense been susceptible at times over the course of the season? The ground game. Via SportsSource Analytics, Clemson running back Travis Etienne leads the country in yards after contact and has forced missed tackles at a record 45% rate. When a future No. 1 NFL draft pick in Trevor Lawrence is under center paired with Etienne and the best defense in the game -- coached by Dabo freakin' Swinney -- it's hard to imagine that team getting six points is the fair price.
Pick: Clemson +6
