ESPN+ Best Bets (cont.)
Steele: The Black Knights are fresh off a bye and need to get to six wins. Last season, Army held Hawai'i to 362 total yards, and Army's defense allows just 324 yards per game this season. Traditionally, an option offense gets more potent as the season goes on, and Army is averaging 490 yards per game total offense and 5.9 yards per carry the past four weeks. Like Doug mentioned, Hawai'i has the Mountain West title game next week in Boise, Idaho, and in between those two tough games has to prepare for the option and cut blocking of Army. The Warriors yielded 353 rush yards and 6.9 YPC earlier this season against an option team in Air Force. The rest, situation and need to reach six wins all line up with Army.
ATS pick: Army +2.5
Johnson: This one is easy for me. How is a Hawai'i defense that gave up 56 to Air Force when it saw the option earlier this season -- and ranks 121st against the run on the season -- going to suddenly learn how to defend it the week after clinching its first-ever Mountain West division crown with the championship game on deck? Army is coming off its bye week with extra preparation time and rest, which is even more helpful given the lengthy travel to the island. Hawai'i's strength is attacking through the air offensively, and the forecast calls for 18-23 mph winds. An Army victory puts the Black Knights in a bowl game, and I think they get it done.
Pick: Army +2.5
[h=3]Indiana Hoosiers(-6.5) at Purdue Boilermakers[/h]Connelly: In both 2017 and 2018, Indiana started the season reasonably strong, then got pummeled by the Big Ten East's big boys and faded. The Hoosiers headed into their huge rivalry game against Purdue each season needing a victory for bowl eligibility and lost.
Here are two reasons why history won't repeat this season:
1. Indiana's already clinched a bowl! The Hoosiers started 7-2 and peaked at 19th in SP+. They've dropped two in a row to heavyweights (they nearly took down Penn State, then got drubbed by Michigan) and are fully on Slump Watch now, but the pressure of reaching the postseason is already off the table at least.
2. Purdue is just not very good. The Boilermakers are on their 17th quarterback (OK, fourth), star receiver Rondale Moore is doubtful and the defense isn't good enough. Purdue is 0-5 against SP+ top-40 teams this season, with an average scoring margin of minus-17. The 6.5-point line is Indiana-friendly, and SP+ projects the Hoosiers to win by 12.1. That gives us a little bit of a slump cushion.
Pick: Indiana -6.5
[h=3]Wisconsin Badgers(-3) at Minnesota Golden Gophers[/h]<aside class="inline float-r inline-track" style="font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 167px; clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px 0px; width: 335px; border-width: 1px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-bottom-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); caret-color: rgb(29, 30, 31); color: rgb(29, 30, 31); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;">[h=1]
NFL & CFB Best Bets[/h]Panel: Week 13 NFL best bets
Stanford Steve/Fallica: Our bets
Panel: Week 14 CFB best bets
Connelly: Rivalry Week betting value
CFB: Early Week 14 betting look
PickCenter: NFL | CFB
</aside>Connelly: This line surprised me a bit. Minnesota has covered against the midweek line in seven of its past eight games, and the Golden Gophers' only blemish was a tight game in the Upset Hell known as Iowa City. Wisconsin, meanwhile, has failed to cover in four of its past five. If anything, I expected to find a little bit of value on Wisconsin's side here.
Instead, we get to pick the home 'dog. And if you're a fan of short-term trend data, that's an exciting thing. So far this season, road teams favored by three or fewer points are 17-34 (33%) against the midweek spread, and SP+ is 31-19-1 ATS (62%) picking these games. When SP+ is picking the home underdog, then, that feels like Best Bet territory to me.
Pick: Minnesota +3
[h=3]Tulane Green Waveat SMU Mustangs(-3.5)[/h]Connelly: Historically, a 3.5-point road underdog covers about 54% of the time, and in the short term, SP+ is 16-7 against the midweek spread picking games with this line. (It's picked the underdog 15 of 23 times, and it's picking Tulane here.) So this is a pretty friendly situation to begin with.
The depth of the American Athletic Conference has begun to drown Tulane a bit; the Green Wave have lost four of five to fall to 6-5 overall, but all four losses were to teams that SP+ likes more than SMU (Memphis, Navy, Temple, UCF), and three were by a touchdown or less. They still rank 39th overall despite the record.
At the same time, SMU is kind of stumbling toward the finish line. The Mustangs needed tight wins over teams far worse than Tulane (Tulsa, Houston) to reach 8-0, and they've lost two of three since. Both losses were by a touchdown, too, but they've sunk to 50th in SP+, which is treating this game like a toss-up. Maybe Senior Day, or the possible return of receiver Reggie Roberson Jr. (he's listed as questionable), can spark something here, but even with a couple of Tulane running backs banged up, I like the Green Wave's chances here, especially with the friendly line.
Pick: Tulane +3.5
[h=3]Miami Hurricanes(-9) at Duke Blue Devils[/h]Connelly: Miami has had probably the strangest season of any good-on-paper team since Notre Dame went 4-8 in 2016. That season, the Fighting Irish managed to finish 18th in SP+ because of the fluky nature of the losses themselves -- they were 1-7 in one-score finishes, and even that doesn't describe some of the randomness they were dealing with.
The Hurricanes' record isn't as bad: They are 3-5 in one-score finishes and 6-5 overall. But per my postgame win expectancy number -- in which I take all the key predictive metrics from a given game, toss them into the air, and say, "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time" -- they have managed to lose four games with a postgame win expectancy of 70% or higher. Even '16 Notre Dame lost only two such games.
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</aside>SP+ has stubbornly continued to believe in the Canes, then, believing that these crazy losses are indeed the result of randomness and continuing to rank them in the 20s. If it is right about that, then this game is a slam-dunk Best Bet. Duke is crumbling to the ground, having lost five games in a row (average scoring margin: minus-22.6) and four of five against the midweek spread. The Blue Devils have fallen from 44th to 73rd in SP+. SP+ says Miami by 13.7. I'll go with that, no matter how nervous it makes me.
Pick: Miami -9
Steele: Coach Manny Diaz called last week's loss to Florida International one of the worst losses in school history. Miami is 18-11 ATS its past 29 games as an away favorite, and last season Duke won in Miami for the first time since 1976. Duke has now lost five in a row by 26.6 points per game and is minus-175 yards per game in those five losses.
In the past four weeks, Duke has allowed 278 rushing yards per game and 5.8 YPC. The Hurricanes had won three in a row ATS before last week and will now be angry, focused and playing with revenge on their minds.
ATS pick: Miami -9
[h=3]Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Florida Atlantic Owls(-9)[/h][h=3][/h]Steele: In 2017, Lane Kiffin had a bowl-caliber squad and went 10-3-1 ATS with the Owls' 11 wins by 26.6 PPG. This season, he has a bowl-caliber squad, and FAU is 7-3-1 ATS, with its eight outright wins by 21.3 PPG. FAU can wrap up a spot in the Conference USA title game with a victory here. Southern Miss has lost only four games this season, but those losses were by 24.5 PPG and none closer than 15 points. The Golden Eagles allow only 286 yards per game at home but 411 yards per game on the road. Oklahoma transfer quarterback Chris Robison has been much improved for the Owls, hitting 63% of his passes with a 19-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Mackey Finalist tight end Harrison Bryant leads the team with 890 receiving yards. Last week, they added Alabama transfer BJ Emmons, who rushed for 53 yards and should have a more significant impact this week.
ATS pick: Florida Atlantic -9
[h=3]North Carolina Tar Heels (-9) at NC State Wolfpack[/h][h=3][/h]Steele: The records are similar, but that is about all that is close with this matchup. North Carolina could easily have double-digit wins right now, as its losses have been by 4.3 points per game with none greater than seven points. The Tar Heels came within a missed 2-point conversion of knocking off Clemson. NC State has suffered a myriad of injuries this season, especially on defense, and six of its losses were by an average of 24.8 PPG. Over the past four weeks, North Carolina is plus-99 yards per game, and the Wolfpack are minus-75 yards per game. Both teams are starting true freshman QBs, but Sam Howell for North Carolina is completing 59.4% of his passes with 32 touchdowns, while NC State's Devin Learyis hitting just 49.5% of his attempts, with seven TD passes.
ATS pick: North Carolina -9
[h=3]Wyoming Cowboysat Air Force Falcons(-11)[/h]Johnson: This line shocked me quite a bit. Since Craig Bohl has taken over the coaching duties in Laramie, the Cowboys have beaten Air Force four of five years, holding the Falcons to just 22.2 PPG. Wyoming's defense and plan of attack offensively -- running the ball heavily with one of the slowest paces in the country -- haven't changed. The total in this matchup is currently lined 42, and I find it hard to believe an option team that Bohl teams have fared well against in the past is going to cover a number in double digits. There won't be many possessions in this game, and Wyoming ranks No. 6 in the nation defending the run, allowing only 2.8 yards per attempt. My projection considering a compressed game script with limited possessions is only Wyoming +7.8. I'm taking the 11.
Pick: Wyoming +11
[h=3]Oklahoma Sooners(-12.5) at Oklahoma State Cowboys[/h]
Johnson: The Sooners are just squeaking by in these games! While they have won their past three by four or fewer points, Oklahoma has dominated the box scores outside of the actual score. Take a look at last week's game against TCU, for example. Oklahoma had 30 first downs to TCU's 11, and gained 511 yards to TCU's 204. The Sooners even possessed the ball for nearly 40 minutes compared to the Horned Frogs' 20. It requires a lot of misfortune to win that game by only four points. OU has been better than most people realize, and I think it's a pretty good time to buy facing an Oklahoma State team down to its backup quarterback, Dru Brown.
Brown & Co. managed to get a win at West Virginia on Saturday despite getting outgained in the game, but they really struggled offensively at times, racking up just 285 yards. The Cowboys averaged 483 this season and hadn't gained fewer than 400. My projection is Oklahoma -16.3, so I laid the big number most people try to avoid in a rivalry matchup.
Pick: Oklahoma -12.5
Steele: The Black Knights are fresh off a bye and need to get to six wins. Last season, Army held Hawai'i to 362 total yards, and Army's defense allows just 324 yards per game this season. Traditionally, an option offense gets more potent as the season goes on, and Army is averaging 490 yards per game total offense and 5.9 yards per carry the past four weeks. Like Doug mentioned, Hawai'i has the Mountain West title game next week in Boise, Idaho, and in between those two tough games has to prepare for the option and cut blocking of Army. The Warriors yielded 353 rush yards and 6.9 YPC earlier this season against an option team in Air Force. The rest, situation and need to reach six wins all line up with Army.
ATS pick: Army +2.5
Johnson: This one is easy for me. How is a Hawai'i defense that gave up 56 to Air Force when it saw the option earlier this season -- and ranks 121st against the run on the season -- going to suddenly learn how to defend it the week after clinching its first-ever Mountain West division crown with the championship game on deck? Army is coming off its bye week with extra preparation time and rest, which is even more helpful given the lengthy travel to the island. Hawai'i's strength is attacking through the air offensively, and the forecast calls for 18-23 mph winds. An Army victory puts the Black Knights in a bowl game, and I think they get it done.
Pick: Army +2.5
[h=3]Indiana Hoosiers(-6.5) at Purdue Boilermakers[/h]Connelly: In both 2017 and 2018, Indiana started the season reasonably strong, then got pummeled by the Big Ten East's big boys and faded. The Hoosiers headed into their huge rivalry game against Purdue each season needing a victory for bowl eligibility and lost.
Here are two reasons why history won't repeat this season:
1. Indiana's already clinched a bowl! The Hoosiers started 7-2 and peaked at 19th in SP+. They've dropped two in a row to heavyweights (they nearly took down Penn State, then got drubbed by Michigan) and are fully on Slump Watch now, but the pressure of reaching the postseason is already off the table at least.
2. Purdue is just not very good. The Boilermakers are on their 17th quarterback (OK, fourth), star receiver Rondale Moore is doubtful and the defense isn't good enough. Purdue is 0-5 against SP+ top-40 teams this season, with an average scoring margin of minus-17. The 6.5-point line is Indiana-friendly, and SP+ projects the Hoosiers to win by 12.1. That gives us a little bit of a slump cushion.
Pick: Indiana -6.5
[h=3]Wisconsin Badgers(-3) at Minnesota Golden Gophers[/h]<aside class="inline float-r inline-track" style="font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 167px; clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px 0px; width: 335px; border-width: 1px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-bottom-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); caret-color: rgb(29, 30, 31); color: rgb(29, 30, 31); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;">[h=1]
Stanford Steve/Fallica: Our bets
Panel: Week 14 CFB best bets
Connelly: Rivalry Week betting value
CFB: Early Week 14 betting look
PickCenter: NFL | CFB
</aside>Connelly: This line surprised me a bit. Minnesota has covered against the midweek line in seven of its past eight games, and the Golden Gophers' only blemish was a tight game in the Upset Hell known as Iowa City. Wisconsin, meanwhile, has failed to cover in four of its past five. If anything, I expected to find a little bit of value on Wisconsin's side here.
Instead, we get to pick the home 'dog. And if you're a fan of short-term trend data, that's an exciting thing. So far this season, road teams favored by three or fewer points are 17-34 (33%) against the midweek spread, and SP+ is 31-19-1 ATS (62%) picking these games. When SP+ is picking the home underdog, then, that feels like Best Bet territory to me.
Pick: Minnesota +3
[h=3]Tulane Green Waveat SMU Mustangs(-3.5)[/h]Connelly: Historically, a 3.5-point road underdog covers about 54% of the time, and in the short term, SP+ is 16-7 against the midweek spread picking games with this line. (It's picked the underdog 15 of 23 times, and it's picking Tulane here.) So this is a pretty friendly situation to begin with.
The depth of the American Athletic Conference has begun to drown Tulane a bit; the Green Wave have lost four of five to fall to 6-5 overall, but all four losses were to teams that SP+ likes more than SMU (Memphis, Navy, Temple, UCF), and three were by a touchdown or less. They still rank 39th overall despite the record.
At the same time, SMU is kind of stumbling toward the finish line. The Mustangs needed tight wins over teams far worse than Tulane (Tulsa, Houston) to reach 8-0, and they've lost two of three since. Both losses were by a touchdown, too, but they've sunk to 50th in SP+, which is treating this game like a toss-up. Maybe Senior Day, or the possible return of receiver Reggie Roberson Jr. (he's listed as questionable), can spark something here, but even with a couple of Tulane running backs banged up, I like the Green Wave's chances here, especially with the friendly line.
Pick: Tulane +3.5
[h=3]Miami Hurricanes(-9) at Duke Blue Devils[/h]Connelly: Miami has had probably the strangest season of any good-on-paper team since Notre Dame went 4-8 in 2016. That season, the Fighting Irish managed to finish 18th in SP+ because of the fluky nature of the losses themselves -- they were 1-7 in one-score finishes, and even that doesn't describe some of the randomness they were dealing with.
The Hurricanes' record isn't as bad: They are 3-5 in one-score finishes and 6-5 overall. But per my postgame win expectancy number -- in which I take all the key predictive metrics from a given game, toss them into the air, and say, "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time" -- they have managed to lose four games with a postgame win expectancy of 70% or higher. Even '16 Notre Dame lost only two such games.
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</aside>SP+ has stubbornly continued to believe in the Canes, then, believing that these crazy losses are indeed the result of randomness and continuing to rank them in the 20s. If it is right about that, then this game is a slam-dunk Best Bet. Duke is crumbling to the ground, having lost five games in a row (average scoring margin: minus-22.6) and four of five against the midweek spread. The Blue Devils have fallen from 44th to 73rd in SP+. SP+ says Miami by 13.7. I'll go with that, no matter how nervous it makes me.
Pick: Miami -9
Steele: Coach Manny Diaz called last week's loss to Florida International one of the worst losses in school history. Miami is 18-11 ATS its past 29 games as an away favorite, and last season Duke won in Miami for the first time since 1976. Duke has now lost five in a row by 26.6 points per game and is minus-175 yards per game in those five losses.
In the past four weeks, Duke has allowed 278 rushing yards per game and 5.8 YPC. The Hurricanes had won three in a row ATS before last week and will now be angry, focused and playing with revenge on their minds.
ATS pick: Miami -9
[h=3]Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Florida Atlantic Owls(-9)[/h][h=3][/h]Steele: In 2017, Lane Kiffin had a bowl-caliber squad and went 10-3-1 ATS with the Owls' 11 wins by 26.6 PPG. This season, he has a bowl-caliber squad, and FAU is 7-3-1 ATS, with its eight outright wins by 21.3 PPG. FAU can wrap up a spot in the Conference USA title game with a victory here. Southern Miss has lost only four games this season, but those losses were by 24.5 PPG and none closer than 15 points. The Golden Eagles allow only 286 yards per game at home but 411 yards per game on the road. Oklahoma transfer quarterback Chris Robison has been much improved for the Owls, hitting 63% of his passes with a 19-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Mackey Finalist tight end Harrison Bryant leads the team with 890 receiving yards. Last week, they added Alabama transfer BJ Emmons, who rushed for 53 yards and should have a more significant impact this week.
ATS pick: Florida Atlantic -9
[h=3]North Carolina Tar Heels (-9) at NC State Wolfpack[/h][h=3][/h]Steele: The records are similar, but that is about all that is close with this matchup. North Carolina could easily have double-digit wins right now, as its losses have been by 4.3 points per game with none greater than seven points. The Tar Heels came within a missed 2-point conversion of knocking off Clemson. NC State has suffered a myriad of injuries this season, especially on defense, and six of its losses were by an average of 24.8 PPG. Over the past four weeks, North Carolina is plus-99 yards per game, and the Wolfpack are minus-75 yards per game. Both teams are starting true freshman QBs, but Sam Howell for North Carolina is completing 59.4% of his passes with 32 touchdowns, while NC State's Devin Learyis hitting just 49.5% of his attempts, with seven TD passes.
ATS pick: North Carolina -9
[h=3]Wyoming Cowboysat Air Force Falcons(-11)[/h]Johnson: This line shocked me quite a bit. Since Craig Bohl has taken over the coaching duties in Laramie, the Cowboys have beaten Air Force four of five years, holding the Falcons to just 22.2 PPG. Wyoming's defense and plan of attack offensively -- running the ball heavily with one of the slowest paces in the country -- haven't changed. The total in this matchup is currently lined 42, and I find it hard to believe an option team that Bohl teams have fared well against in the past is going to cover a number in double digits. There won't be many possessions in this game, and Wyoming ranks No. 6 in the nation defending the run, allowing only 2.8 yards per attempt. My projection considering a compressed game script with limited possessions is only Wyoming +7.8. I'm taking the 11.
Pick: Wyoming +11
[h=3]Oklahoma Sooners(-12.5) at Oklahoma State Cowboys[/h]
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Johnson: The Sooners are just squeaking by in these games! While they have won their past three by four or fewer points, Oklahoma has dominated the box scores outside of the actual score. Take a look at last week's game against TCU, for example. Oklahoma had 30 first downs to TCU's 11, and gained 511 yards to TCU's 204. The Sooners even possessed the ball for nearly 40 minutes compared to the Horned Frogs' 20. It requires a lot of misfortune to win that game by only four points. OU has been better than most people realize, and I think it's a pretty good time to buy facing an Oklahoma State team down to its backup quarterback, Dru Brown.
Brown & Co. managed to get a win at West Virginia on Saturday despite getting outgained in the game, but they really struggled offensively at times, racking up just 285 yards. The Cowboys averaged 483 this season and hadn't gained fewer than 400. My projection is Oklahoma -16.3, so I laid the big number most people try to avoid in a rivalry matchup.
Pick: Oklahoma -12.5
