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'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 14 college football picks, bets, nuggets
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Alabama needs big win vs. Auburn to bolster CFP chance (1:57)
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3:24 PM ET
Chris FallicaSteve Coughlin
What's in store for this week in college football?
Stanford Steve & The Bear podcast
Stanford Steve & The Bear preview all the big games for Rivalry Week and discuss the CFP. There's that and more on the podcast. Listen!
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica break down Week 14 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
With Rivalry Week here and the regular season nearing its end, the guys are ready to continue their prognostications. Here we go with Week 14 picks.
The plays
Stanford Steve (3-0-1 last week, 35-27-3 overall)
The Bear (1-4 last week, 30-29-1 overall)
Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs (-2.5, 58)
Stanford Steve: I might be a little biased here because I recently went to my first game at The Grove, but I feel like the Rebels are playing better and the offense has found some serious juice with freshman quarterback John Rhys Plumlee under center. I'll take the road team getting the points in the Egg Bowl.
Pick: Ole Miss +2.5; Ole Miss 31, Mississippi State 27
The Bear: I agree with the opener, which had the Rebels favored. What has State done lately to make one think it should be favored here? Maybe the allure of beating a rival and qualifying for whatever bowl SEC 9 heads to will be enough, but I'm not feeling it. The Rebels have been far more impressive -- and competitive -- vs. better competition, especially as the year has progressed, and I expect Plumlee to have a day here.
Pick: Ole Miss +2.5
Maryland Terrapins at Michigan State Spartans (-22, 48.5)
Stanford Steve: After a promising start, it really feels as if the dirty Terps have given up on the season.
Pick: Michigan State -22; Michigan State 34, Maryland 10
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Penn State Nittany Lions (-40, 49.5)
EDITOR'S PICKS
Coaches' scouting reports on Week 14's biggest matchups
It's Rivalry Week! Here's everything you need to know about the biggest games
The Hater's Guide to Rivalry Week
Stanford Steve: If James Franklin can score 80, he will.
Pick: Penn State -40; Penn State 63, Rutgers 10
The Bear: Rutgers has been shut out four times in Big Ten play this year and there's a good chance a fifth shutout is on tap. This could be like Penn State-Maryland bad after Penn State's comeback fell short last week in Columbus. I would think there's a good chance Will Levis will get more time at quarterback -- and that would be a good thing. But even if Sean Clifford is back, this has the feel of a 42-0, 49-7 type of game.
Pick: Penn State -40
Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls (-28, 51.5)
The Bear: Can't imagine Bowling Green will be too excited to be getting on the plane here. Remove the win over Akron and the Falcons' past three games are losses by 39, 31 and 42. This team is 2-8 ATS this year and now has to end the season on the road against a Buffalo team that has probably exceeded expectations, been an offensive machine late in the year and really should be carrying a five-game winning streak into this one. Buffalo beat the Falcons by 30 on the road last year, and I see little reason not to expect a similar result this year.
Pick: Buffalo -28
Iowa Hawkeyes (-5.5, 45) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
NFL & CFB Best Bets
Panel: Week 13 NFL best bets
Stanford Steve/Fallica: Our bets
Panel: Week 14 CFB best bets
Connelly: Rivalry Week betting value
CFB: Early Week 14 betting look
PickCenter: NFL | CFB
The Bear: The Huskers' offense has actually played very well the past few weeks, and although the Iowa defense is legit, the Hawkeyes' offense isn't going to scare many people. This is a huge game for the Huskers. If they can pull the upset, this season can be viewed as progress, even if it's not the type of progress many people had hoped for. But a bowl game would be a huge step for a team that was 4-8 each of the past two years. This was a three-point game in Iowa City last year and I expect another close one -- if not an outright Huskers win.
Pick: Nebraska +5.5
Vanderbilt Commodores at Tennessee Volunteers (-21, 46.5)
The Bear: Tennessee is going to end the year on a five-game winning streak; the question is whether the Vols can cover the big number and extend their ATS streak to seven. I'll say they do. After losing to the Commodores by double-digits each of the past three years, this feels like one of those "bill has come due" type of games. The Vols are playing their best football of the season, and outside of a stunning upset over Missouri and a win over an FCS opponent, Vandy has lost eight games by at least 17 and six games by at least 24, including each of its past two losses.
Pick: Tennessee -21
Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers (-11, 57)
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The Bear: This has a "lay it and laugh" feel to it. The Bearcats have the look of a team that has peaked. They probably should have lost the past two weeks if not for USF missing four field-goal attempts and Cincy getting a return of a blocked PAT vs. Temple. Cincinnati hasn't played well for weeks. And now the game means absolutely nothing as the Bearcats are in next week's AAC title game. I guess they could try and avoid having to play the Tigers again next week by getting the win here, but this screams like a great spot for Memphis, which needs the game and is far superior on the offensive and special teams units. Since the controversial loss at Temple, the Tigers haven't scored fewer than 42 in any game.
Pick: Memphis -11
Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State Spartans (-3, 65.5)
The Bear: Like Ole Miss, I agree with Circa's opener of San Jose State -2. This is not the Fresno team of the past couple of years. The Bulldogs have lost three straight -- the last one coming as a double-digit home favorite over Nevada -- and will miss out on a bowl. San Jose State will miss out on a bowl too, but a potential 5-7 season with near misses vs. Boise State and Hawaii -- the two teams playing for the MWC title -- has to be seen as progress for a team that went 1-11 last year and 2-11 in 2017. San Diego State has been the only MWC team to really slow down Josh Love and the Spartans' offense. And after throwing four picks in a surprising loss to UNLV, I'd be surprised if Love and the Spartans didn't play a cleaner game and end the season on a high note.
Pick: San Jose State +3
The Bear's money-line parlay of the week
10-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 returns $81.
Louisiana -2000
Buffalo -6000
UCF -2500
Memphis -420
Georgia -7000
Tennessee -2000
Clemson -6000
Utah -6000
Notre Dame -850
Florida -1400
The Bear's underdogs to play in parlays, round robins and/or on ML
Ole Miss +115
Nebraska +200
Arkansas +375
Washington State +250
Louisville +135
Auburn +150
Stay-away games
The Bear
Oklahoma Sooners (-13.5, 69.5) at Oklahoma State Cowboys
I can't trust OU to cover a big number right now, nor do I have a ton of confidence the shorthanded Cowboys offense will score a ton. It's a complete pass for me.
Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks (-19, 66)
How will either team respond to last week's season-crushing losses? The Ducks still have a Pac-12 title to play for next week regardless of what happens Saturday, and the Beavers were so close to becoming bowl eligible last week. Now they have to try and pull a big upset again to get to six wins. Your guess is as good as mine.
Miami Hurricanes (-9, 46.5) at Duke Blue Devils
A lot of money has come in on Miami, but no way could I lay a big number with the Canes, who have been about as awful a favorite as there is. But how can you back Duke with any confidence?
Bear Bytes
Sooners squeaking by
Oklahoma is the first AP top-10 team to win three straight games by four points or fewer since Oregon in 2000.
Tide on upset alert
The past seven times Alabama was a favorite of less than seven points, the Tide are just 3-4 straight up and covered only once. The Tide are currently a 3.5-point favorite at Jordan-Hare.
Alabama's last seven games favored by less than 7:
2019: Alabama -5 vs. LSU, lost by 5
2018: Alabama -5.5 vs. Clemson, lost by 28
2017: Alabama -3.5 vs. Georgia, won by 3
2017: Alabama -3.5 vs. Clemson, won by 18
2017: Alabama -5 at Auburn, lost by 12
2016: Alabama -6 vs. Clemson, lost by 4
2015: Alabama -6.5 vs. Clemson, won by 5
Owning the Apple Cup
Washington is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 meetings vs. Washington State. The Huskies have won six straight and nine of 10 in the series.
Miami making the wrong kind of history
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With the loss to FIU, Miami became the only team in the past 40 years to lose three times as a 14-point favorite in a single season. The Canes lost to Virginia Tech as a 14-point favorite, Georgia Tech as an 18.5-point favorite and to FIU as 21-point favorite. Miami also won just 17-12 as a 30.5-point favorite vs. Central Michigan.
In its past 13 games as a favorite, Miami has lost eight of them outright.
Vols on a roll
Tennessee has covered six straight and is laying 22 this week vs. Vanderbilt. The Vols have won one SEC game by 22 points since the start of the 2016 season -- a 63-37 win against Missouri in 2016.
Think twice before laying points with Ohio State?
Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in its past five games as a favorite against Michigan. OSU has won 14 of 15 on the field vs. Michigan.
Ole Miss undervalued
Ole Miss has covered six of its past seven games. The lone ATS loss was a 7-point loss to Texas A&M as a 6-point underdog.
Bad favorites in Big 12 play
Texas is 3-9 ATS in its past 12 games as a favorite in a Big 12 game.
It has been a while since Nebraska pulled an upset
Nebraska has been an underdog three times this year. The Huskers didn't cover any of them, losing to Wisconsin by 16 as a 14-point underdog, Minnesota by 27 as a 7.5-point 'dog and by 41 as a 17-point 'dog vs. Ohio State. In its past 20 games as an underdog, the Huskers have pulled one upset -- a 25-24 win over Purdue as a 4-point 'dog in 2017.
Dating to 2015, Iowa has been favored by less than six points in a Big Ten game six times; the Hawkeyes have won and covered all six.
Rowing the boat to victory
In his past seven games as an underdog, P.J. Fleck's teams have won six outright and lost by four at Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog.
Where there's a Wil, there's a way
In 24 games as an underdog under Justin Wilcox, Cal is 16-8 ATS and has won 10 outright, including four of the past seven instances.
Wyoming a tough out
Wyoming has been an underdog five times this year. The five games resulted in an outright win as a 16.5-point 'dog and four losses by a combined 15 points.
Which way do you want to go?
Virginia Tech is 3-7-1 ATS in its past 11 games as a road favorite with four outright losses. The Hokies have won 15 straight over Virginia and are 10-4-1 ATS during that stretch.
The 'I have too much time on my hands' note of the week
4-7 Ball State is favored over 7-4 Miami (OH) this week. In the past 40 years there have been just four other instances of a team 4-7 or worse after 11 games favored over a team 7-4 or better through 11 games. None of the four covered and three of the four lost outright.
2017: UMass vs. FIU, lost by 18
2011: Arizona vs. Louisiana, won by 8
2009: Illinois vs. Fresno State, lost by 1
2003: Alabama vs. Hawaii, lost by 8
'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 14 college football picks, bets, nuggets
play
Alabama needs big win vs. Auburn to bolster CFP chance (1:57)
Facebook Messenger
3:24 PM ET
Chris FallicaSteve Coughlin
What's in store for this week in college football?
Stanford Steve & The Bear podcast
Stanford Steve & The Bear preview all the big games for Rivalry Week and discuss the CFP. There's that and more on the podcast. Listen!
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica break down Week 14 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
With Rivalry Week here and the regular season nearing its end, the guys are ready to continue their prognostications. Here we go with Week 14 picks.
The plays
Stanford Steve (3-0-1 last week, 35-27-3 overall)
The Bear (1-4 last week, 30-29-1 overall)
Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs (-2.5, 58)
Stanford Steve: I might be a little biased here because I recently went to my first game at The Grove, but I feel like the Rebels are playing better and the offense has found some serious juice with freshman quarterback John Rhys Plumlee under center. I'll take the road team getting the points in the Egg Bowl.
Pick: Ole Miss +2.5; Ole Miss 31, Mississippi State 27
The Bear: I agree with the opener, which had the Rebels favored. What has State done lately to make one think it should be favored here? Maybe the allure of beating a rival and qualifying for whatever bowl SEC 9 heads to will be enough, but I'm not feeling it. The Rebels have been far more impressive -- and competitive -- vs. better competition, especially as the year has progressed, and I expect Plumlee to have a day here.
Pick: Ole Miss +2.5
Maryland Terrapins at Michigan State Spartans (-22, 48.5)
Stanford Steve: After a promising start, it really feels as if the dirty Terps have given up on the season.
Pick: Michigan State -22; Michigan State 34, Maryland 10
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Penn State Nittany Lions (-40, 49.5)
EDITOR'S PICKS
Coaches' scouting reports on Week 14's biggest matchups
It's Rivalry Week! Here's everything you need to know about the biggest games
The Hater's Guide to Rivalry Week
Stanford Steve: If James Franklin can score 80, he will.
Pick: Penn State -40; Penn State 63, Rutgers 10
The Bear: Rutgers has been shut out four times in Big Ten play this year and there's a good chance a fifth shutout is on tap. This could be like Penn State-Maryland bad after Penn State's comeback fell short last week in Columbus. I would think there's a good chance Will Levis will get more time at quarterback -- and that would be a good thing. But even if Sean Clifford is back, this has the feel of a 42-0, 49-7 type of game.
Pick: Penn State -40
Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls (-28, 51.5)
The Bear: Can't imagine Bowling Green will be too excited to be getting on the plane here. Remove the win over Akron and the Falcons' past three games are losses by 39, 31 and 42. This team is 2-8 ATS this year and now has to end the season on the road against a Buffalo team that has probably exceeded expectations, been an offensive machine late in the year and really should be carrying a five-game winning streak into this one. Buffalo beat the Falcons by 30 on the road last year, and I see little reason not to expect a similar result this year.
Pick: Buffalo -28
Iowa Hawkeyes (-5.5, 45) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
NFL & CFB Best Bets
Panel: Week 13 NFL best bets
Stanford Steve/Fallica: Our bets
Panel: Week 14 CFB best bets
Connelly: Rivalry Week betting value
CFB: Early Week 14 betting look
PickCenter: NFL | CFB
The Bear: The Huskers' offense has actually played very well the past few weeks, and although the Iowa defense is legit, the Hawkeyes' offense isn't going to scare many people. This is a huge game for the Huskers. If they can pull the upset, this season can be viewed as progress, even if it's not the type of progress many people had hoped for. But a bowl game would be a huge step for a team that was 4-8 each of the past two years. This was a three-point game in Iowa City last year and I expect another close one -- if not an outright Huskers win.
Pick: Nebraska +5.5
Vanderbilt Commodores at Tennessee Volunteers (-21, 46.5)
The Bear: Tennessee is going to end the year on a five-game winning streak; the question is whether the Vols can cover the big number and extend their ATS streak to seven. I'll say they do. After losing to the Commodores by double-digits each of the past three years, this feels like one of those "bill has come due" type of games. The Vols are playing their best football of the season, and outside of a stunning upset over Missouri and a win over an FCS opponent, Vandy has lost eight games by at least 17 and six games by at least 24, including each of its past two losses.
Pick: Tennessee -21
Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers (-11, 57)
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The Bear: This has a "lay it and laugh" feel to it. The Bearcats have the look of a team that has peaked. They probably should have lost the past two weeks if not for USF missing four field-goal attempts and Cincy getting a return of a blocked PAT vs. Temple. Cincinnati hasn't played well for weeks. And now the game means absolutely nothing as the Bearcats are in next week's AAC title game. I guess they could try and avoid having to play the Tigers again next week by getting the win here, but this screams like a great spot for Memphis, which needs the game and is far superior on the offensive and special teams units. Since the controversial loss at Temple, the Tigers haven't scored fewer than 42 in any game.
Pick: Memphis -11
Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State Spartans (-3, 65.5)
The Bear: Like Ole Miss, I agree with Circa's opener of San Jose State -2. This is not the Fresno team of the past couple of years. The Bulldogs have lost three straight -- the last one coming as a double-digit home favorite over Nevada -- and will miss out on a bowl. San Jose State will miss out on a bowl too, but a potential 5-7 season with near misses vs. Boise State and Hawaii -- the two teams playing for the MWC title -- has to be seen as progress for a team that went 1-11 last year and 2-11 in 2017. San Diego State has been the only MWC team to really slow down Josh Love and the Spartans' offense. And after throwing four picks in a surprising loss to UNLV, I'd be surprised if Love and the Spartans didn't play a cleaner game and end the season on a high note.
Pick: San Jose State +3
The Bear's money-line parlay of the week
10-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 returns $81.
Louisiana -2000
Buffalo -6000
UCF -2500
Memphis -420
Georgia -7000
Tennessee -2000
Clemson -6000
Utah -6000
Notre Dame -850
Florida -1400
The Bear's underdogs to play in parlays, round robins and/or on ML
Ole Miss +115
Nebraska +200
Arkansas +375
Washington State +250
Louisville +135
Auburn +150
Stay-away games
The Bear
Oklahoma Sooners (-13.5, 69.5) at Oklahoma State Cowboys
I can't trust OU to cover a big number right now, nor do I have a ton of confidence the shorthanded Cowboys offense will score a ton. It's a complete pass for me.
Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks (-19, 66)
How will either team respond to last week's season-crushing losses? The Ducks still have a Pac-12 title to play for next week regardless of what happens Saturday, and the Beavers were so close to becoming bowl eligible last week. Now they have to try and pull a big upset again to get to six wins. Your guess is as good as mine.
Miami Hurricanes (-9, 46.5) at Duke Blue Devils
A lot of money has come in on Miami, but no way could I lay a big number with the Canes, who have been about as awful a favorite as there is. But how can you back Duke with any confidence?
Bear Bytes
Sooners squeaking by
Oklahoma is the first AP top-10 team to win three straight games by four points or fewer since Oregon in 2000.
Tide on upset alert
The past seven times Alabama was a favorite of less than seven points, the Tide are just 3-4 straight up and covered only once. The Tide are currently a 3.5-point favorite at Jordan-Hare.
Alabama's last seven games favored by less than 7:
2019: Alabama -5 vs. LSU, lost by 5
2018: Alabama -5.5 vs. Clemson, lost by 28
2017: Alabama -3.5 vs. Georgia, won by 3
2017: Alabama -3.5 vs. Clemson, won by 18
2017: Alabama -5 at Auburn, lost by 12
2016: Alabama -6 vs. Clemson, lost by 4
2015: Alabama -6.5 vs. Clemson, won by 5
Owning the Apple Cup
Washington is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 meetings vs. Washington State. The Huskies have won six straight and nine of 10 in the series.
Miami making the wrong kind of history
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With the loss to FIU, Miami became the only team in the past 40 years to lose three times as a 14-point favorite in a single season. The Canes lost to Virginia Tech as a 14-point favorite, Georgia Tech as an 18.5-point favorite and to FIU as 21-point favorite. Miami also won just 17-12 as a 30.5-point favorite vs. Central Michigan.
In its past 13 games as a favorite, Miami has lost eight of them outright.
Vols on a roll
Tennessee has covered six straight and is laying 22 this week vs. Vanderbilt. The Vols have won one SEC game by 22 points since the start of the 2016 season -- a 63-37 win against Missouri in 2016.
Think twice before laying points with Ohio State?
Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in its past five games as a favorite against Michigan. OSU has won 14 of 15 on the field vs. Michigan.
Ole Miss undervalued
Ole Miss has covered six of its past seven games. The lone ATS loss was a 7-point loss to Texas A&M as a 6-point underdog.
Bad favorites in Big 12 play
Texas is 3-9 ATS in its past 12 games as a favorite in a Big 12 game.
It has been a while since Nebraska pulled an upset
Nebraska has been an underdog three times this year. The Huskers didn't cover any of them, losing to Wisconsin by 16 as a 14-point underdog, Minnesota by 27 as a 7.5-point 'dog and by 41 as a 17-point 'dog vs. Ohio State. In its past 20 games as an underdog, the Huskers have pulled one upset -- a 25-24 win over Purdue as a 4-point 'dog in 2017.
Dating to 2015, Iowa has been favored by less than six points in a Big Ten game six times; the Hawkeyes have won and covered all six.
Rowing the boat to victory
In his past seven games as an underdog, P.J. Fleck's teams have won six outright and lost by four at Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog.
Where there's a Wil, there's a way
In 24 games as an underdog under Justin Wilcox, Cal is 16-8 ATS and has won 10 outright, including four of the past seven instances.
Wyoming a tough out
Wyoming has been an underdog five times this year. The five games resulted in an outright win as a 16.5-point 'dog and four losses by a combined 15 points.
Which way do you want to go?
Virginia Tech is 3-7-1 ATS in its past 11 games as a road favorite with four outright losses. The Hokies have won 15 straight over Virginia and are 10-4-1 ATS during that stretch.
The 'I have too much time on my hands' note of the week
4-7 Ball State is favored over 7-4 Miami (OH) this week. In the past 40 years there have been just four other instances of a team 4-7 or worse after 11 games favored over a team 7-4 or better through 11 games. None of the four covered and three of the four lost outright.
2017: UMass vs. FIU, lost by 18
2011: Arizona vs. Louisiana, won by 8
2009: Illinois vs. Fresno State, lost by 1
2003: Alabama vs. Hawaii, lost by 8
