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How about some Gold Sheet
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Not sure if anyone else finds value in this but I track the line movements daily... figured I'd share this week.
Week 3 CFB Line Movements
Opening lines are from Circa Sports released each Sunday afternoon and first to the market.
Week 3 CFB Line Movements
Opening lines are from Circa Sports released each Sunday afternoon and first to the market.
Newsletters:
Sports Reporter
Gold Sheet
Gold Sheet Extra
Confidential Kick-Off
Winning Points
Powers' Picks
VSiN Point Spread Weekly
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Playbook Wise Guys Contest
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Power Sweep
Power Plays
Kenny White's NFL Football Power Ratings
VSiN 2019 College Football Betting Guide
VSiN 2019 Pro Football Betting Guide
Records:
2019 Newsletter records
2018 Newsletter records
2017 Newsletter records
2016 Newsletter records
2018 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Report
Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's September 11 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
VSiN podcasts/videos
Sports Reporter
Gold Sheet
Gold Sheet Extra
Confidential Kick-Off
Winning Points
Powers' Picks
VSiN Point Spread Weekly
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Playbook Wise Guys Contest
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Power Sweep
Power Plays
Kenny White's NFL Football Power Ratings
VSiN 2019 College Football Betting Guide
VSiN 2019 Pro Football Betting Guide
Records:
2019 Newsletter records
2018 Newsletter records
2017 Newsletter records
2016 Newsletter records
2018 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Report
Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's September 11 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
VSiN podcasts/videos
From ESPN+.....
Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the second full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Connelly: 6-0 (3-0 last week)
Kezirian: 7-4 (3-3 last week)
Johnson: 3-6 (0-3 last week)
Steele: 3-9 (2-5 last week)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.
[h=2]Friday's games:[/h]
[h=2]North Carolina Tar Heels at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-3, 66.5)[/h]Johnson: While the resurgence in Chapel Hill under Mack Brown certainly makes for a great story, I feel like the verdict is still out. UNC gave up nearly 500 yards of offense and 6.4 yards per play to Miami in Week 2. The Hurricanes were unable to capitalize on chances and missed multiple field goals and extra points in the loss. The Tar Heels now have to turn around on a short week and face an up-tempo Wake Forest offense that has scored 79 total points through two games against Utah State and Rice.
The Demon Deacons currently rank fourth in the country in plays run per game (85.0) after finishing No. 1 in that category last season (85.0). Wake's defense certainly hasn't been anything to write home about either, allowing 5.9 yards per play to the Aggies and Owls, so I'm betting over in a game that I project closer to 70 points scored.
Pick: Over 66.5
[h=2]Saturday's games[/h]
[h=2]NC State Wolfpack (-6.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers[/h]Connelly: Yes, West Virginia is a step up from two directional Carolinas, but NC State has looked really strong this year, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Wolfpack allowed just six combined points to ECU and Western Carolina, and are 15th in success rate allowed, fifth against the run.
West Virginia is just 127th in success rate and 130th in rushing, and freshman receiver Sam James was the only player who could do anything even slightly efficient against Missouri last week. Unless some big-play options emerge, WVU is going to struggle to score. SP+ projects a 34-24 NC State win, and while 24-14 feels more likely to me, we're still talking about more than a TD margin.
ATS pick: NC State -6.5
SP+ projection: NCST 34, WVU 24
Steele: After being held to 294 yards offense by James Madison in the opener, the Mountaineers had just 171 yards last week in a 31-point road loss at Missouri. West Virginia has rushed for only 32 yards per game and 1.1 yards per carry. NC State has a talented defense that is allowing just 188 total yards per game including 25 YPG rushing and 1.0 YPC. Despite being inexperienced on offense, the Wolfpack have put up 523 yards per game and are 9-4 ATS as an away favorite the past six years.
ATS pick: NC State -6.5
Score: North Carolina State 24, West Virginia 10
[h=2]Stanford Cardinal at UCF Knights (-7.5)[/h]Connelly: Granted, it always makes me queasy marking a game with massive QB uncertainty as a best bet of any kind, but the line was off on UCF-FAU by 24 points in UCF's favor last week, and SP+ suggests it's off by another 10 or so this week.
Stanford gets K.J. Costello back, but I'm worried more about the defense -- a week after getting sucked into the undertow and giving up 45 points to USC, we're expecting the Cardinal to fare well against the fastest and maybe most big-play oriented offense in the country? And with star left tackle Walker Little done for the year?
This game could be a fascinating contrast in styles: UCF ranks first in my adjusted tempo measure, while Stanford ranks last. But I'm guessing UCF has pulled ahead by eight or more points by the end.
ATS pick: UCF -7.5
SP+ projection: UCF 37, Stanford 20
[h=2]San Diego State Aztecs (-15.5) at New Mexico State Aggies[/h]Connelly: Granted, the SP+ projection for this game -- SDSU 37, NMSU 13 -- suggests San Diego State is capable of scoring more than 30 points in a game, which feels presumptuous to me. So if you must, look at it more like 27-3. Either way, you'll probably need to give the Aggies a lot more than 15-16 points to make this one interesting.
New Mexico State was a feel-good story back in 2017, but it returns home after getting outscored 120-17 by Wazzu and Alabama, and even if SDSU's remodeled offense is struggling, I don't see how we're expecting NMSU to actually score enough points to stay close.
ATS pick: SDSU -15.5
SP+ projection: SDSU 37, NMSU 13
[h=2]Air Force Falcons at Colorado Buffaloes (-4)[/h]Steele: Air Force is an impressive 10-3-1 ATS as an away 'dog the last five years and 17-5-1 ATS versus nonconference foes in that same stretch. Colorado trailed Nebraska 17-0 at the half last week and was outgained 266 yards to 84, but overcame two separate fourth-quarter 10-point deficits to pull out the OT win. The Buffaloes also have their Pac-12 opener on deck while Air Force has one of its most experienced teams under Troy Calhoun and is fresh off a bye. Colorado is 2-0 but was outgained in both games. I will take the Falcons to pull the road upset.
ATS pick: Air Force +4
Score: Air Force 34, Colorado 30
Johnson: My projection for this game is Air Force +2.3 anyway, but there likely isn't a better spot to fade a school this week than a Buffaloes team that erased a 17-point deficit against the Nebraska Cornhuskers to force overtime and eventually get the victory. Now this Colorado team has to turn around and face the Air Force option attack that had the benefit of a bye in Week 2. The Buffs were outgained in both of their contests to start the season despite winning both, but I anticipate that's going to change this week against the Falcons.
ATS pick: Air Force +4
[h=2]Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Louisville Cardinals (-10)[/h]Steele: Last week, Western Kentucky benefited from FIU losing starting QB James Morgan in the second quarter and pulled a road upset in its Conference USA opener. Two weeks ago, the Hilltoppers lost to an FCS team (Central Arkansas) at home 35-28. There is a new sheriff in town at Louisville, and Scott Satterfield has brought a new attitude to a team that quit down the stretch last year. Satterfield is 15-3-1 ATS his previous 19 games and has some weapons to work with here at Louisville. The Cardinals put up 383 yards in the opener against Notre Dame, and Cardinal fans should travel well to this game in Nashville.
ATS pick: Louisville -10
Score: Louisville 34, Western Kentucky 16
[h=2]Arkansas State Red Wolves at No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-33)[/h]Steele: Arkansas State got an unexpected boost last week when coach Blake Anderson decided to fly to Vegas and coach the team. The Red Wolves responded with a 43-17 road upset of UNLV. Kirby Smart is 7-11 ATS as a home favorite and 2-5 ATS versus Group of 5 teams; the Red Wolves also put up 391 yards at Alabama last season, so they can move the ball against good competition. Georgia will also want to keep their starters healthy for next week's marquee matchup against Notre Dame.
ATS pick: Arkansas State +33
Score: Georgia 41, Arkansas State 16
[h=2]Texas State Bobcats at SMU Mustangs (-17)[/h]Steele: SMU added numerous Power 5 transfers this year, including Texas transfer QB Shane Buechele, who is throwing to three NFL-caliber receivers. SMU has faced two teams that were in a bowl game last year (Arkansas State and North Texas) and put up an average of 506 yards and 43 points per game, including an 18-point win against North Texas last week.
Texas State played better than the score indicated last week as they had a 444-293 yard edge versus Wyoming, but lost the turnover battle 3-1. My computer has SMU winning this one 39-15, and I will ride SMU until this early-season line value runs out.
ATS pick: SMU -17
Score: SMU 39, Texas State 15
[h=2]East Carolina Pirates at Navy Midshipmen (-7)[/h]Johnson: I think Navy is a bit undervalued as a whole entering 2019 off of a 3-10 campaign (their worst under Ken Niumatalolo and only the second time they've finished under .500 since 2002). The Midshipmen are in an interesting early-season spot where they open AAC play coming off of a bye with another bye week on deck. My raw projection in this matchup is Navy -8.6, but it's worth a bet at -7 or better.
ATS pick: Navy -7
[h=2]Army Black Knights (-17) at UTSA Roadrunners[/h]Johnson: Similar to Colorado, the spot is fairly clear-cut in this matchup. Army had multiple chances in Week 2 to upset the Michigan Wolverines in the Big House before ultimately falling short in overtime. I'm not generally eager to rush to bet on UTSA football, but my projection comes in at +14.4 and it's no secret it's difficult for teams like Army running the option to cover big numbers with a limited amount of possessions in the game. Give me the Roadrunners.
ATS pick: UTSA +17
[h=2]TCU Horned Frogs (-2.5, 51.5) at Purdue Boilermakers[/h]Johnson: Purdue QB Elijah Sindelar suffered a concussion late in the game Saturday against Vanderbilt. He's officially questionable to play this week against TCU, but considering the market has moved from Boilermakers as high as -3 to the Horned Frogs now laying -2.5, I think the writing is on the wall. Concussion protocol in general is much stricter anyway in 2019. Sindelar is probably underappreciated nationally, and the drop-off to redshirt freshman Jack Plummer is extremely concerning considering the Purdue rushing attack has been non-existent through two games (17 rushes for only 31 yards against Vandy and 96 yards on 29 carries in Nevada, one of the reasons they choked away a big lead late in that game). If the Boilermakers were unable to run successfully against Nevada and Vanderbilt with Sindelar under center, what are we to expect against a Gary Patterson defense with two weeks to prepare?
My projection without Sindelar playing for Purdue is 48.8, and I was being cautious with my drop in projections for Plummer. We still don't know who TCU's future QB will be this season after fifth-year senior Alex Delton and true freshman Max Duggan split snaps in their season-opener against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Patterson has said he will stick to the two-quarterback approach in the Purdue matchup as well. I've never been a fan nor seen it be consistently effective in the past. Give me the under.
Pick: Under 51.5
[h=2]UMass Minutemen at Charlotte 49ers (-19)[/h]Kezirian: I think the Minutemen are in the driver's seat to be named college football's worst team. They just got blown out at home as 6-point favorites to FCS school Southern Illinois. Walt Bell switched quarterbacks during that loss, and all signs point to this rebuilding process taking a very long time. Charlotte also has a new coach, but the 49ers have generated justified buzz. They have scored 90 points in their first two games, which is important when you need to cover three touchdowns. This has all the makings of a blowout.
ATS pick: Charlotte -19
[h=2]UNLV Rebels at Northwestern Wildcats (-18.5)[/h]Kezirian: We all saw the bad beat in Northwestern's opener against Stanford but what got overlooked is the fact that they never should have even been covering in the first place. The Wildcats lost their starting QB and only mustered seven points with an unprepared backup. After a bye week, Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson will likely be ready for this opportunity. However, this team is limited at most positions. I think UNLV's speed should be a big factor, particularly with the mobility of Armani Rodgers, assuming Tony Sanchez sticks with him. Pat Fitzgerald is a cover machine as an underdog, but I have to fade the Wildcats when they're favored by this many points.
ATS pick: UNLV Rebels +18.5
[h=2]Georgia Southern Eagles at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-15.5)[/h]Kezirian: This is solely a play on the situational spot. Minnesota had an impressive overtime win at Fresno State, rallying in the fourth quarter to even force the extra frame. The on-field celebration was warranted but it also sets up a giant flat spot against a unheralded school. The Eagles visit Minneapolis with a triple-option offense that's incredibly annoying and occasionally difficult to defend. Yes, the Eagles were blown out in Baton Rouge but Minnesota doesn't have the same athletes as LSU. This could be a really tricky game for the Gophers.
ATS pick: Georgia Southern +15.5
[h=2]Oklahoma State Cowboys (-14) at Tulsa Golden Hurricane[/h]Kezirian: There's not much to say here. We've all observed this potent offense light up scoreboards, and I don't see how Tulsa holds them under 40. I am somewhat reluctant to lay two touchdowns with that defense so I will stick to the team total. Additionally, I'm not quite sure Mike Gundy trusts his own defense, so he's likely to keep scoring if the Pokes have a sizable lead.
Pick: Oklahoma State team total over 39.5 (FanDuel)
Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the second full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Connelly: 6-0 (3-0 last week)
Kezirian: 7-4 (3-3 last week)
Johnson: 3-6 (0-3 last week)
Steele: 3-9 (2-5 last week)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.
[h=2]Friday's games:[/h]
[h=2]North Carolina Tar Heels at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-3, 66.5)[/h]Johnson: While the resurgence in Chapel Hill under Mack Brown certainly makes for a great story, I feel like the verdict is still out. UNC gave up nearly 500 yards of offense and 6.4 yards per play to Miami in Week 2. The Hurricanes were unable to capitalize on chances and missed multiple field goals and extra points in the loss. The Tar Heels now have to turn around on a short week and face an up-tempo Wake Forest offense that has scored 79 total points through two games against Utah State and Rice.
The Demon Deacons currently rank fourth in the country in plays run per game (85.0) after finishing No. 1 in that category last season (85.0). Wake's defense certainly hasn't been anything to write home about either, allowing 5.9 yards per play to the Aggies and Owls, so I'm betting over in a game that I project closer to 70 points scored.
Pick: Over 66.5
[h=2]Saturday's games[/h]
[h=2]NC State Wolfpack (-6.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers[/h]Connelly: Yes, West Virginia is a step up from two directional Carolinas, but NC State has looked really strong this year, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Wolfpack allowed just six combined points to ECU and Western Carolina, and are 15th in success rate allowed, fifth against the run.
West Virginia is just 127th in success rate and 130th in rushing, and freshman receiver Sam James was the only player who could do anything even slightly efficient against Missouri last week. Unless some big-play options emerge, WVU is going to struggle to score. SP+ projects a 34-24 NC State win, and while 24-14 feels more likely to me, we're still talking about more than a TD margin.
ATS pick: NC State -6.5
SP+ projection: NCST 34, WVU 24
Steele: After being held to 294 yards offense by James Madison in the opener, the Mountaineers had just 171 yards last week in a 31-point road loss at Missouri. West Virginia has rushed for only 32 yards per game and 1.1 yards per carry. NC State has a talented defense that is allowing just 188 total yards per game including 25 YPG rushing and 1.0 YPC. Despite being inexperienced on offense, the Wolfpack have put up 523 yards per game and are 9-4 ATS as an away favorite the past six years.
ATS pick: NC State -6.5
Score: North Carolina State 24, West Virginia 10
[h=2]Stanford Cardinal at UCF Knights (-7.5)[/h]Connelly: Granted, it always makes me queasy marking a game with massive QB uncertainty as a best bet of any kind, but the line was off on UCF-FAU by 24 points in UCF's favor last week, and SP+ suggests it's off by another 10 or so this week.
Stanford gets K.J. Costello back, but I'm worried more about the defense -- a week after getting sucked into the undertow and giving up 45 points to USC, we're expecting the Cardinal to fare well against the fastest and maybe most big-play oriented offense in the country? And with star left tackle Walker Little done for the year?
This game could be a fascinating contrast in styles: UCF ranks first in my adjusted tempo measure, while Stanford ranks last. But I'm guessing UCF has pulled ahead by eight or more points by the end.
ATS pick: UCF -7.5
SP+ projection: UCF 37, Stanford 20
[h=2]San Diego State Aztecs (-15.5) at New Mexico State Aggies[/h]Connelly: Granted, the SP+ projection for this game -- SDSU 37, NMSU 13 -- suggests San Diego State is capable of scoring more than 30 points in a game, which feels presumptuous to me. So if you must, look at it more like 27-3. Either way, you'll probably need to give the Aggies a lot more than 15-16 points to make this one interesting.
New Mexico State was a feel-good story back in 2017, but it returns home after getting outscored 120-17 by Wazzu and Alabama, and even if SDSU's remodeled offense is struggling, I don't see how we're expecting NMSU to actually score enough points to stay close.
ATS pick: SDSU -15.5
SP+ projection: SDSU 37, NMSU 13
[h=2]Air Force Falcons at Colorado Buffaloes (-4)[/h]Steele: Air Force is an impressive 10-3-1 ATS as an away 'dog the last five years and 17-5-1 ATS versus nonconference foes in that same stretch. Colorado trailed Nebraska 17-0 at the half last week and was outgained 266 yards to 84, but overcame two separate fourth-quarter 10-point deficits to pull out the OT win. The Buffaloes also have their Pac-12 opener on deck while Air Force has one of its most experienced teams under Troy Calhoun and is fresh off a bye. Colorado is 2-0 but was outgained in both games. I will take the Falcons to pull the road upset.
ATS pick: Air Force +4
Score: Air Force 34, Colorado 30
Johnson: My projection for this game is Air Force +2.3 anyway, but there likely isn't a better spot to fade a school this week than a Buffaloes team that erased a 17-point deficit against the Nebraska Cornhuskers to force overtime and eventually get the victory. Now this Colorado team has to turn around and face the Air Force option attack that had the benefit of a bye in Week 2. The Buffs were outgained in both of their contests to start the season despite winning both, but I anticipate that's going to change this week against the Falcons.
ATS pick: Air Force +4
[h=2]Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Louisville Cardinals (-10)[/h]Steele: Last week, Western Kentucky benefited from FIU losing starting QB James Morgan in the second quarter and pulled a road upset in its Conference USA opener. Two weeks ago, the Hilltoppers lost to an FCS team (Central Arkansas) at home 35-28. There is a new sheriff in town at Louisville, and Scott Satterfield has brought a new attitude to a team that quit down the stretch last year. Satterfield is 15-3-1 ATS his previous 19 games and has some weapons to work with here at Louisville. The Cardinals put up 383 yards in the opener against Notre Dame, and Cardinal fans should travel well to this game in Nashville.
ATS pick: Louisville -10
Score: Louisville 34, Western Kentucky 16
[h=2]Arkansas State Red Wolves at No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-33)[/h]Steele: Arkansas State got an unexpected boost last week when coach Blake Anderson decided to fly to Vegas and coach the team. The Red Wolves responded with a 43-17 road upset of UNLV. Kirby Smart is 7-11 ATS as a home favorite and 2-5 ATS versus Group of 5 teams; the Red Wolves also put up 391 yards at Alabama last season, so they can move the ball against good competition. Georgia will also want to keep their starters healthy for next week's marquee matchup against Notre Dame.
ATS pick: Arkansas State +33
Score: Georgia 41, Arkansas State 16
[h=2]Texas State Bobcats at SMU Mustangs (-17)[/h]Steele: SMU added numerous Power 5 transfers this year, including Texas transfer QB Shane Buechele, who is throwing to three NFL-caliber receivers. SMU has faced two teams that were in a bowl game last year (Arkansas State and North Texas) and put up an average of 506 yards and 43 points per game, including an 18-point win against North Texas last week.
Texas State played better than the score indicated last week as they had a 444-293 yard edge versus Wyoming, but lost the turnover battle 3-1. My computer has SMU winning this one 39-15, and I will ride SMU until this early-season line value runs out.
ATS pick: SMU -17
Score: SMU 39, Texas State 15
[h=2]East Carolina Pirates at Navy Midshipmen (-7)[/h]Johnson: I think Navy is a bit undervalued as a whole entering 2019 off of a 3-10 campaign (their worst under Ken Niumatalolo and only the second time they've finished under .500 since 2002). The Midshipmen are in an interesting early-season spot where they open AAC play coming off of a bye with another bye week on deck. My raw projection in this matchup is Navy -8.6, but it's worth a bet at -7 or better.
ATS pick: Navy -7
[h=2]Army Black Knights (-17) at UTSA Roadrunners[/h]Johnson: Similar to Colorado, the spot is fairly clear-cut in this matchup. Army had multiple chances in Week 2 to upset the Michigan Wolverines in the Big House before ultimately falling short in overtime. I'm not generally eager to rush to bet on UTSA football, but my projection comes in at +14.4 and it's no secret it's difficult for teams like Army running the option to cover big numbers with a limited amount of possessions in the game. Give me the Roadrunners.
ATS pick: UTSA +17
[h=2]TCU Horned Frogs (-2.5, 51.5) at Purdue Boilermakers[/h]Johnson: Purdue QB Elijah Sindelar suffered a concussion late in the game Saturday against Vanderbilt. He's officially questionable to play this week against TCU, but considering the market has moved from Boilermakers as high as -3 to the Horned Frogs now laying -2.5, I think the writing is on the wall. Concussion protocol in general is much stricter anyway in 2019. Sindelar is probably underappreciated nationally, and the drop-off to redshirt freshman Jack Plummer is extremely concerning considering the Purdue rushing attack has been non-existent through two games (17 rushes for only 31 yards against Vandy and 96 yards on 29 carries in Nevada, one of the reasons they choked away a big lead late in that game). If the Boilermakers were unable to run successfully against Nevada and Vanderbilt with Sindelar under center, what are we to expect against a Gary Patterson defense with two weeks to prepare?
My projection without Sindelar playing for Purdue is 48.8, and I was being cautious with my drop in projections for Plummer. We still don't know who TCU's future QB will be this season after fifth-year senior Alex Delton and true freshman Max Duggan split snaps in their season-opener against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Patterson has said he will stick to the two-quarterback approach in the Purdue matchup as well. I've never been a fan nor seen it be consistently effective in the past. Give me the under.
Pick: Under 51.5
[h=2]UMass Minutemen at Charlotte 49ers (-19)[/h]Kezirian: I think the Minutemen are in the driver's seat to be named college football's worst team. They just got blown out at home as 6-point favorites to FCS school Southern Illinois. Walt Bell switched quarterbacks during that loss, and all signs point to this rebuilding process taking a very long time. Charlotte also has a new coach, but the 49ers have generated justified buzz. They have scored 90 points in their first two games, which is important when you need to cover three touchdowns. This has all the makings of a blowout.
ATS pick: Charlotte -19
[h=2]UNLV Rebels at Northwestern Wildcats (-18.5)[/h]Kezirian: We all saw the bad beat in Northwestern's opener against Stanford but what got overlooked is the fact that they never should have even been covering in the first place. The Wildcats lost their starting QB and only mustered seven points with an unprepared backup. After a bye week, Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson will likely be ready for this opportunity. However, this team is limited at most positions. I think UNLV's speed should be a big factor, particularly with the mobility of Armani Rodgers, assuming Tony Sanchez sticks with him. Pat Fitzgerald is a cover machine as an underdog, but I have to fade the Wildcats when they're favored by this many points.
ATS pick: UNLV Rebels +18.5
[h=2]Georgia Southern Eagles at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-15.5)[/h]Kezirian: This is solely a play on the situational spot. Minnesota had an impressive overtime win at Fresno State, rallying in the fourth quarter to even force the extra frame. The on-field celebration was warranted but it also sets up a giant flat spot against a unheralded school. The Eagles visit Minneapolis with a triple-option offense that's incredibly annoying and occasionally difficult to defend. Yes, the Eagles were blown out in Baton Rouge but Minnesota doesn't have the same athletes as LSU. This could be a really tricky game for the Gophers.
ATS pick: Georgia Southern +15.5
[h=2]Oklahoma State Cowboys (-14) at Tulsa Golden Hurricane[/h]Kezirian: There's not much to say here. We've all observed this potent offense light up scoreboards, and I don't see how Tulsa holds them under 40. I am somewhat reluctant to lay two touchdowns with that defense so I will stick to the team total. Additionally, I'm not quite sure Mike Gundy trusts his own defense, so he's likely to keep scoring if the Pokes have a sizable lead.
Pick: Oklahoma State team total over 39.5 (FanDuel)
Updated....
CKO
11* (1-0)
10* (5-3)
o/u (0-2)
Gridiron Gold Sheet (no newsletter this week)
NCAA Best Bets (0-0-0)
NFL Best Bets (0-0-0)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (1-1) Florida
4* (1-1) Iowa St
3* (1-1) Kansas St
Upset pick (1-1) BYU
Betcha Didn't Know (3-1) NYJ
Awesome Angle (0-1-1) Chicago (NFL)
Incredible Stat (1-1) Kansas St
Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (0-1) NO
4* (1-0) Cincy
3* (0-1) Pitt
Pointwise NCAA
1* (1-2) Bama, UCF
2* (0-2) OK St
3* (1-1) NC St
4* (2-2) TCU, Virginia
5* (3-1) Oklahoma, Clemson
Pointwise NFL
3* (1-0) KC
4* (2-0) Balt, Chicago
5* (0-1-1) Buffalo, Cle
PowerSweep NCAA
4* (0-1) Navy
3* (2-2) La Tech, Charlotte
2* (1-3) Iowa, Arkansas
Underdog Play of the Week (0-2) Ohio
Tech Play of the Week (0-2) SMU
Revenge Play of the Week (0-2) Mich St
Situational Play of the Week (1-1) Rice
Series Play of the Week (0-0)
PowerSweep NFL
4* (0-1) Chicago
3* (1-0) GB
2* (1-0) NYG
NFL System play (2-0) Min/GB Under
4* Pro Angle (1-0) Dallas
Powers Picks NCAA
3* (0-1) Virginia
2* (4-3) Air Force, Ok St, Wash, FL/Kentucky UNDER 50.5
1* (0-0)
Powers Picks NFL
4* (0-0)
3* (0-0) Pitt
2* (3-0) Buffalo, Oakland
1* (0-0)
Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (3-3) UCF, Mich St, Wash
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0)
NFL Best Bets (3-0) NYJ, GB
Red Sheet
90* (0-0)
89* (2-2) Alabama, Oklahoma
88* (4-3-1) Air Force, UCF, Buffalo (NCAA), Chicago
Winning Points
NCAA 4* (0-2) Arkansas
NCAA 3* (2-0) Maryland
NFL 4* (0-1) Pitt
NFL 3* (1-0) Indy
Killer Sports, not including teasers (didn't see KS this week)
MTI 5* (0-0)
MTI 4.5* (0-0)
MTI 4* (0-0)
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (0-0)
SBB 4* (0-0)
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (0-3) Dallas/Wash OVER
2* (0-1) TB/Car UNDER, GB/Minn UNDER
Team Total of the Week (1-0) Pitt OVER 25
PowerPlays
NCAA 4.5* (1-1) Iowa, Mich St
NCAA 4* (0-6) Ark St, Ball St, Hawaii
NFL 4* (1-0) Dallas
Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (5-3) Kansas St, Alabama, Ohio, SMU
NFL Key Releases (2-1) LAC, Seattle, Philly
Tech Play (1-1) UNLV
CKO
11* (1-0)
10* (5-3)
o/u (0-2)
Gridiron Gold Sheet (no newsletter this week)
NCAA Best Bets (0-0-0)
NFL Best Bets (0-0-0)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (1-1) Florida
4* (1-1) Iowa St
3* (1-1) Kansas St
Upset pick (1-1) BYU
Betcha Didn't Know (3-1) NYJ
Awesome Angle (0-1-1) Chicago (NFL)
Incredible Stat (1-1) Kansas St
Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (0-1) NO
4* (1-0) Cincy
3* (0-1) Pitt
Pointwise NCAA
1* (1-2) Bama, UCF
2* (0-2) OK St
3* (1-1) NC St
4* (2-2) TCU, Virginia
5* (3-1) Oklahoma, Clemson
Pointwise NFL
3* (1-0) KC
4* (2-0) Balt, Chicago
5* (0-1-1) Buffalo, Cle
PowerSweep NCAA
4* (0-1) Navy
3* (2-2) La Tech, Charlotte
2* (1-3) Iowa, Arkansas
Underdog Play of the Week (0-2) Ohio
Tech Play of the Week (0-2) SMU
Revenge Play of the Week (0-2) Mich St
Situational Play of the Week (1-1) Rice
Series Play of the Week (0-0)
PowerSweep NFL
4* (0-1) Chicago
3* (1-0) GB
2* (1-0) NYG
NFL System play (2-0) Min/GB Under
4* Pro Angle (1-0) Dallas
Powers Picks NCAA
3* (0-1) Virginia
2* (4-3) Air Force, Ok St, Wash, FL/Kentucky UNDER 50.5
1* (0-0)
Powers Picks NFL
4* (0-0)
3* (0-0) Pitt
2* (3-0) Buffalo, Oakland
1* (0-0)
Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (3-3) UCF, Mich St, Wash
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0)
NFL Best Bets (3-0) NYJ, GB
Red Sheet
90* (0-0)
89* (2-2) Alabama, Oklahoma
88* (4-3-1) Air Force, UCF, Buffalo (NCAA), Chicago
Winning Points
NCAA 4* (0-2) Arkansas
NCAA 3* (2-0) Maryland
NFL 4* (0-1) Pitt
NFL 3* (1-0) Indy
Killer Sports, not including teasers (didn't see KS this week)
MTI 5* (0-0)
MTI 4.5* (0-0)
MTI 4* (0-0)
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (0-0)
SBB 4* (0-0)
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (0-3) Dallas/Wash OVER
2* (0-1) TB/Car UNDER, GB/Minn UNDER
Team Total of the Week (1-0) Pitt OVER 25
PowerPlays
NCAA 4.5* (1-1) Iowa, Mich St
NCAA 4* (0-6) Ark St, Ball St, Hawaii
NFL 4* (1-0) Dallas
Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (5-3) Kansas St, Alabama, Ohio, SMU
NFL Key Releases (2-1) LAC, Seattle, Philly
Tech Play (1-1) UNLV
Just a quick note that while this kind of "to date" results for the Newsletters is good information, I think that some exceptions would be helpful to note. For example while many of our members seem to dis Marl Lawrence and I am not championing him, but it would be helpful to note that last week on ALL of his newsletter picks - he went 8-0 in college, and 2-1 in the pro's. In contrast North Coasts Power Plays went 0-8 in college picks. This includes their upset game, their "Computer" plays and all their other plays. Again not a lean to either paper, as everyone has good and bad days but letting guys know that somebody may be hot or cold can save or cost people hard earn cash.
Newsletters:
Sports Reporter
Gold Sheet
Gold Sheet Extra
Confidential Kick-Off
Winning Points
Powers' Picks
VSiN Point Spread Weekly
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Playbook Wise Guys Contest
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Power Sweep
Power Plays
Kenny White's NFL Football Power Ratings
VSiN 2019 College Football Betting Guide
VSiN 2019 Pro Football Betting Guide
Records:
2019 Newsletter records by week
[URL="http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=264&p=12936980&viewfull=1#post12936980"]2019 YTD Newsletter records[/URL]
2018 Newsletter records
2017 Newsletter records
2016 Newsletter records
2018 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Report
Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's September 11 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
VSiN podcasts/videos
Sports Reporter
Gold Sheet
Gold Sheet Extra
Confidential Kick-Off
Winning Points
Powers' Picks
VSiN Point Spread Weekly
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Playbook Wise Guys Contest
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Power Sweep
Power Plays
Kenny White's NFL Football Power Ratings
VSiN 2019 College Football Betting Guide
VSiN 2019 Pro Football Betting Guide
Records:
2019 Newsletter records by week
[URL="http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=264&p=12936980&viewfull=1#post12936980"]2019 YTD Newsletter records[/URL]
2018 Newsletter records
2017 Newsletter records
2016 Newsletter records
2018 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Report
Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's September 11 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
VSiN podcasts/videos
College football season is here, which means it's time for "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica.
In this file, they break down Week 3 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and even a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
Here we go with Week 3 picks. Get ready to back -- or fade -- a bunch of 'dogs you normally wouldn't want any part of. Enjoy Week 3.
[h=2]The plays[/h][h=3]Stanford Steve (3-2 last week, 5-5 overall)[/h]
Maryland Terrapins (-7, 66.5) at Temple Owls
No one has started the season better than the Dirty Terps. But Temple has the personnel on defense (the best secondary in the American Athletic Conference, in my opinion) to slow the Terrapins down. I like the spot here for the Owls, who upset Maryland last season as 16-point dog when they played two safeties down to help against the run and dared Maryland to throw the ball. The Terps couldn't capitalize when they took shots down the field and could have similar issues this time around.
Pick: Temple +7. Maryland 34, Temple 33.
Stanford Cardinal at UCF Knights (-7.5, 62)
Tough, tough matchup for the Cardinal. A week after getting torched by the USC offense led by a true freshman quarterback, they travel across the country to play the even more wide-open and speedy offense of the Knights. Just don't think the Cardinal has the personnel to hold up for 60 minutes.
Pick: UCF -7.5. UCF 41, Stanford 23.
Kansas State Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs (-8, 52)
Absolutely love the start of the season the Purple Kats from Manhattan have had. I know they haven't played the best competition (Bowling Green and Nicholls), but the handprints of this Chris Klieman coaching staff can already be seen. Quarterback Skylar Thompson leads the FBS in Total QBR (97), the Wildcats lead the country in time of possession at 42 minutes per game, rank 12th in FBS in scoring at 50.5 points per game and are third in rushing yards per game with 347 per contest. The Bulldogs' offense might take a hit with the uncertain status of their captain, quarterback Tommy Stevens. Wildcats haven't won a nonconference road game since 2011.
Pick: K-State +8. Mississippi State 27, Kansas State 22.
[h=3]The Bear (1-3-1 last week, 1-7-1 overall)[/h]
Temple vs. Maryland (-7, 66.5)
This is an auto play based on how great the Terps' offense has been so far and how Maryland is one of the flavors of the month in college football -- and deservedly so. But Temple's defense is much better than anything the Terps have faced this season. Last season the 0-2 Owls blitzed 2-0 Maryland as a 16-point 'dog. This edition of the Terps is much better, but Rod Carey is now on the sidelines for the Owls and this is a very experienced Temple defense. I'll take the points here and give the Owls a chance to win on the field. Since 2015, Temple is 16-5 against the spread with 10 outright wins as a 'dog, so it has performed well in this role under multiple head coaches.
Pick: Temple +7
Penn State Nittany Lions (-17, 53.5) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Nobody loves covering more as a big favorite than James Franklin, as evidenced by the second-half onslaught last week against Buffalo. And there is certainly no love lost in this rivalry. Given how slowly the Nittany Lions started last week, I would be surprised if that happened again. Pitt is down a couple of key players on the defensive side of the ball as well, which could help that cause. The Virginia defense slowed down Pitt, and I think Penn State's defense is better than Virginia's. In its past four games against Power 5 teams, Pitt has four touchdowns, six turnovers and has failed to gain a first down on 27 of 54 drives. I'm sure Pitt will try to milk the play clock and shorten the game, but I can't see the Panthers cracking 17 points here.
Pick: Penn State -17
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Illinois Fighting Illini (-7, 55.5)
Illinois is 2-0 after victories over Akron and UConn, but I wouldn't pencil the Illini into a bowl spot just yet. Quarterback Brandon Peters has been OK, but the Illini actually trailed UConn by double digits before rallying last week. I love EMU as a 'dog, especially after an uncharacteristic loss vs. Kentucky last week. I'd expect Chris Creighton's team to play well this week. Remember, last season the Eagles won on the road at Purdue. And 2019 Illinois isn't as good as 2018 Purdue.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +7
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5, 44.5)
I usually hate giving out the game I'll be attending for GameDay, but after a week off following the escape against Northern Iowa, I think Cyclones coach Matt Campbell was allowed a whole lot of "teaching moments." That close call could be the best thing to happen to Iowa State. Iowa is pretty good and my pick is certainly no slight against the Hawkeyes. But Campbell's record as a home 'dog (9-2 ATS) and the bitter taste ISU has to have in its mouth after blowing the 2017 game have to factor in here somehow. I expect at least one unranked team to pull an upset this week, and this seems like a logical spot.
Pick: Iowa State +2.5
Michigan State Spartans (-14, 41.5) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
I was high on ASU entering the season, but I don't like this spot at all. A true freshman quarterback making his first road start behind a shaky offensive line and for an offense that has struggled mightily to score touchdowns in the red zone? Add the layer of facing a really good defense -- and one looking for revenge from last season. The Spartans' offense woke up last week, and if it plays like that this season, MSU will be just fine. I do hate taking teams the week after they beat me, as Michigan State did last week against Western Michigan. I'm guessing my unofficial record in these types of picks is something like 11-204. OK, I'm exaggerating a bit, but I do like the Spartans here.
Pick: Michigan State -14
Washington Huskies (-21, 59) vs. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Hawai'i has square public 'dog written all over it, given its 2-0 start against two of the worst teams in the Pac-12 and the fact Washington looks vulnerable after a strange home loss to Cal. But the Huskies have made a living the past couple of seasons feasting on games like this. It reminds me a little of last season's BYU game, where Washington was an 18-point favorite over a Cougars team that had already won in Camp Randall. And people raised an eyebrow at that spread. The final score: Washington 35, BYU 7. Hawai'i will likely score more than seven points, but it will also turn the ball over a lot, and that should result in easy points for the Huskies.
Pick: Washington -21
Others I thought of that just missed the cut ...
East Carolina (+7 at Navy): Just don't know if the defense is up to the task yet in this spot.
North Texas (+13.5 at Cal): Letdown spot for Cal against a team that was blown out by SMU last week?
[h=2]Stay-away games[/h][h=3]The Bear[/h]
Oklahoma Sooners (-23.5, 72.5) at UCLA Bruins
The Sooners are going to be a huge public side and I'm not a fan of being on those types of sides. Sure, sometimes they are obvious, easy winners, but I'm not going near the spread -- but I will put the Sooners in the ML parlay.
Air Force Falcons at Colorado Buffaloes (-4.5, 59)
Awfully small number to lay with a team coming off a comeback upset victory over Nebraska. Be careful here.
Ohio State Buckeyes (-16.5, 60.5) at Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana and I broke up last season. I got a call the other night from an Indiana area code and I let it go to voicemail. I am steadfast in my determination to avoid letting my ex Indiana back into my life. "Indiana Football: Just good enough to get you beat."
[h=3]Stanford Steve[/h]
Washington State Cougars (-8.5, 74) at Houston Cougars
Word is things get weird when Mike Leach and Dana Holgorsen are in the same place late on a Friday night. Stay away!
Iowa (-2, 44.5) at Iowa State
I'll just sit back and watch these two go at it. Can't wait.
[h=2]The Bear's underdogs to play in a money-line parlay and/or round robin[/h]Temple +220
Eastern Michigan +240
Liberty +190
Western Kentucky +320
West Virginia +200
[h=2]The Bear's money-line parlay[/h]We hit last week's in the neighborhood of $63 per $100, so we'll go with this 11-teamer that wins $68.70 on a $100 wager.
Boston College -2000
Ohio State -900
Cincinnati -900
Penn State -900
Georgia -17000
Notre Dame -15000
Alabama -2500
Washington -2000
Clemson -5000
Oklahoma -3000
Auburn -20000
[h=2]Stanford Steve's conference-game favorites worth taking[/h]
Florida State Seminoles at Virginia Cavaliers (-7, 57)
FSU started last season with a brutal loss at home and then squeaked by as a 33-point favorite against Samford, winning 36-26. The Seminoles followed that up by getting blasted at Syracuse. This season feels like it's following a similar path, as they travel to play their first conference game versus a very hungry team in Charlottesville. Coach Willie Taggart says the Seminoles have to play a perfect game. I don't think they will.
Pick: Virginia -7. Virginia 31, Florida State 16.
East Carolina Pirates at Navy Midshipmen (-7, 53.5)
I mentioned plenty this offseason that I loved the hire by the Pirates bringing in Mike Houston to run the program. I know he knows how to play defense against the option, I'm just not sure he has the players to stop it.
Pick: Navy -7. Navy 35, ECU 24.
[h=2]Stanford Steve's double-digit favorites he likes to cover[/h]
Army Black Knights (-17, 45) at UTSA Roadrunners
It sucks to have to play Army. It sucks even worse to play a mad Army.
Pick: Army -17. Army 35, UTSA 10.
UMass Minutemen at Charlotte 49ers (-18.5, 68)
The Minutemen might have the worst defense in the country. The roster is thin and the defense was undermanned when Walt Bell took over the program this past offseason. Charlotte head coach Will Healy is a name you will hear plenty about in the future, if you haven't heard about what he did at Austin Peay the past couple seasons. The 49ers need another victory before they head to Clemson next week.
Pick: Charlotte -18.5. Charlotte 51, UMass 23.
[h=2]Stanford Steve's favorite team total over[/h]Oklahoma State Cowboys over 39 (at Tulsa Golden Hurricane)
[h=2]Stanford Steve's underdog that might be worth taking on the money line[/h]Bowling Green Falcons +330 (vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs)
[h=2]Stanford Steve's 3-team, 9-point teaser (-110)[/h]Boston College Eagles -12
Penn State Nittany Lions -8
Oklahoma State Cowboys -5
[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h]This is the first weekend since Week 7 of 2017 that there isn't a single matchup between ranked teams on the schedule. What happened on that October weekend? Seven ranked teams lost and five lost as favorites, including three as favorites of at least 16.5 points. One of those big favorites who lost? Clemson as a 23.5-point favorite that Friday night at Syracuse. Each of the past five weekends where there hasn't been a ranked matchup, at least two ranked teams have lost.
The last time there was a weekend without a ranked matchup that all ranked teams won was Sept. 25, 2004. And that weekend, No. 1 -- and eventual national champion -- USC needed a fourth-quarter TD and rallied from an 11-point halftime deficit to beat what would be a 4-7 Stanford team 31-28.
Here are the past five weekends without a ranked matchup (where ranked team lost):
2017 Week 7 (Oct. 13-14)
No. 2 Clemson (-23.5) at Syracuse, lost 27-24
No. 5 Washington (-18) at Arizona State, lost 13-7
No. 8 Washington State (-16.5) at Cal, lost 37-3
No. 10 Auburn (-7) vs. LSU, lost 27-23
No. 19 San Diego State (-4.5) vs. Boise State, lost 31-14
No. 24 Texas Tech (+4.5) at West Virginia, lost 46-35
No. 25 Navy (+3.5) at Memphis, lost 30-27
2016 Week 2 (Sept. 10)
No. 15 TCU (-9) vs. Arkansas, lost 41-38
No. 22 Oklahoma State (-19) vs. Central Michigan, lost 30-27
2012 Week 2 (Sept. 8)
No. 8 Arkansas (-30.5) vs. UL Monroe, lost 34-31
No. 13 Wisconsin (-7) at Oregon State, lost 10-7
No. 16 Nebraska (-5) at UCLA, lost 36-30
No. 18 Oklahoma State (-10.5) at Arizona, lost 59-38
2009 Week 12 (Nov. 21)
No. 10 LSU (+5) at Ole Miss, lost 25-23
No. 14 Stanford (-7.5) vs. Cal, lost 34-28
No. 17 Wisconsin (-7) at Northwestern, lost 33-31
No. 25 Rutgers (-9.5) at Syracuse, lost 31-13
2008 Week 2 (Sept. 6)
No. 8 West Virginia (-7.5) at East Carolina, lost 24-3
No. 24 South Carolina (-7) at Vanderbilt, lost 24-17
Stanford at UCF
In this file, they break down Week 3 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and even a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
Here we go with Week 3 picks. Get ready to back -- or fade -- a bunch of 'dogs you normally wouldn't want any part of. Enjoy Week 3.
[h=2]The plays[/h][h=3]Stanford Steve (3-2 last week, 5-5 overall)[/h]
Maryland Terrapins (-7, 66.5) at Temple Owls
No one has started the season better than the Dirty Terps. But Temple has the personnel on defense (the best secondary in the American Athletic Conference, in my opinion) to slow the Terrapins down. I like the spot here for the Owls, who upset Maryland last season as 16-point dog when they played two safeties down to help against the run and dared Maryland to throw the ball. The Terps couldn't capitalize when they took shots down the field and could have similar issues this time around.
Pick: Temple +7. Maryland 34, Temple 33.
Stanford Cardinal at UCF Knights (-7.5, 62)
Tough, tough matchup for the Cardinal. A week after getting torched by the USC offense led by a true freshman quarterback, they travel across the country to play the even more wide-open and speedy offense of the Knights. Just don't think the Cardinal has the personnel to hold up for 60 minutes.
Pick: UCF -7.5. UCF 41, Stanford 23.
Kansas State Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs (-8, 52)
Absolutely love the start of the season the Purple Kats from Manhattan have had. I know they haven't played the best competition (Bowling Green and Nicholls), but the handprints of this Chris Klieman coaching staff can already be seen. Quarterback Skylar Thompson leads the FBS in Total QBR (97), the Wildcats lead the country in time of possession at 42 minutes per game, rank 12th in FBS in scoring at 50.5 points per game and are third in rushing yards per game with 347 per contest. The Bulldogs' offense might take a hit with the uncertain status of their captain, quarterback Tommy Stevens. Wildcats haven't won a nonconference road game since 2011.
Pick: K-State +8. Mississippi State 27, Kansas State 22.
[h=3]The Bear (1-3-1 last week, 1-7-1 overall)[/h]
Temple vs. Maryland (-7, 66.5)
This is an auto play based on how great the Terps' offense has been so far and how Maryland is one of the flavors of the month in college football -- and deservedly so. But Temple's defense is much better than anything the Terps have faced this season. Last season the 0-2 Owls blitzed 2-0 Maryland as a 16-point 'dog. This edition of the Terps is much better, but Rod Carey is now on the sidelines for the Owls and this is a very experienced Temple defense. I'll take the points here and give the Owls a chance to win on the field. Since 2015, Temple is 16-5 against the spread with 10 outright wins as a 'dog, so it has performed well in this role under multiple head coaches.
Pick: Temple +7
Penn State Nittany Lions (-17, 53.5) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Nobody loves covering more as a big favorite than James Franklin, as evidenced by the second-half onslaught last week against Buffalo. And there is certainly no love lost in this rivalry. Given how slowly the Nittany Lions started last week, I would be surprised if that happened again. Pitt is down a couple of key players on the defensive side of the ball as well, which could help that cause. The Virginia defense slowed down Pitt, and I think Penn State's defense is better than Virginia's. In its past four games against Power 5 teams, Pitt has four touchdowns, six turnovers and has failed to gain a first down on 27 of 54 drives. I'm sure Pitt will try to milk the play clock and shorten the game, but I can't see the Panthers cracking 17 points here.
Pick: Penn State -17
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Illinois Fighting Illini (-7, 55.5)
Illinois is 2-0 after victories over Akron and UConn, but I wouldn't pencil the Illini into a bowl spot just yet. Quarterback Brandon Peters has been OK, but the Illini actually trailed UConn by double digits before rallying last week. I love EMU as a 'dog, especially after an uncharacteristic loss vs. Kentucky last week. I'd expect Chris Creighton's team to play well this week. Remember, last season the Eagles won on the road at Purdue. And 2019 Illinois isn't as good as 2018 Purdue.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +7
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5, 44.5)
I usually hate giving out the game I'll be attending for GameDay, but after a week off following the escape against Northern Iowa, I think Cyclones coach Matt Campbell was allowed a whole lot of "teaching moments." That close call could be the best thing to happen to Iowa State. Iowa is pretty good and my pick is certainly no slight against the Hawkeyes. But Campbell's record as a home 'dog (9-2 ATS) and the bitter taste ISU has to have in its mouth after blowing the 2017 game have to factor in here somehow. I expect at least one unranked team to pull an upset this week, and this seems like a logical spot.
Pick: Iowa State +2.5
Michigan State Spartans (-14, 41.5) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
I was high on ASU entering the season, but I don't like this spot at all. A true freshman quarterback making his first road start behind a shaky offensive line and for an offense that has struggled mightily to score touchdowns in the red zone? Add the layer of facing a really good defense -- and one looking for revenge from last season. The Spartans' offense woke up last week, and if it plays like that this season, MSU will be just fine. I do hate taking teams the week after they beat me, as Michigan State did last week against Western Michigan. I'm guessing my unofficial record in these types of picks is something like 11-204. OK, I'm exaggerating a bit, but I do like the Spartans here.
Pick: Michigan State -14
Washington Huskies (-21, 59) vs. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Hawai'i has square public 'dog written all over it, given its 2-0 start against two of the worst teams in the Pac-12 and the fact Washington looks vulnerable after a strange home loss to Cal. But the Huskies have made a living the past couple of seasons feasting on games like this. It reminds me a little of last season's BYU game, where Washington was an 18-point favorite over a Cougars team that had already won in Camp Randall. And people raised an eyebrow at that spread. The final score: Washington 35, BYU 7. Hawai'i will likely score more than seven points, but it will also turn the ball over a lot, and that should result in easy points for the Huskies.
Pick: Washington -21
Others I thought of that just missed the cut ...
East Carolina (+7 at Navy): Just don't know if the defense is up to the task yet in this spot.
North Texas (+13.5 at Cal): Letdown spot for Cal against a team that was blown out by SMU last week?
[h=2]Stay-away games[/h][h=3]The Bear[/h]
Oklahoma Sooners (-23.5, 72.5) at UCLA Bruins
The Sooners are going to be a huge public side and I'm not a fan of being on those types of sides. Sure, sometimes they are obvious, easy winners, but I'm not going near the spread -- but I will put the Sooners in the ML parlay.
Air Force Falcons at Colorado Buffaloes (-4.5, 59)
Awfully small number to lay with a team coming off a comeback upset victory over Nebraska. Be careful here.
Ohio State Buckeyes (-16.5, 60.5) at Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana and I broke up last season. I got a call the other night from an Indiana area code and I let it go to voicemail. I am steadfast in my determination to avoid letting my ex Indiana back into my life. "Indiana Football: Just good enough to get you beat."
[h=3]Stanford Steve[/h]
Washington State Cougars (-8.5, 74) at Houston Cougars
Word is things get weird when Mike Leach and Dana Holgorsen are in the same place late on a Friday night. Stay away!
Iowa (-2, 44.5) at Iowa State
I'll just sit back and watch these two go at it. Can't wait.
[h=2]The Bear's underdogs to play in a money-line parlay and/or round robin[/h]Temple +220
Eastern Michigan +240
Liberty +190
Western Kentucky +320
West Virginia +200
[h=2]The Bear's money-line parlay[/h]We hit last week's in the neighborhood of $63 per $100, so we'll go with this 11-teamer that wins $68.70 on a $100 wager.
Boston College -2000
Ohio State -900
Cincinnati -900
Penn State -900
Georgia -17000
Notre Dame -15000
Alabama -2500
Washington -2000
Clemson -5000
Oklahoma -3000
Auburn -20000
[h=2]Stanford Steve's conference-game favorites worth taking[/h]
Florida State Seminoles at Virginia Cavaliers (-7, 57)
FSU started last season with a brutal loss at home and then squeaked by as a 33-point favorite against Samford, winning 36-26. The Seminoles followed that up by getting blasted at Syracuse. This season feels like it's following a similar path, as they travel to play their first conference game versus a very hungry team in Charlottesville. Coach Willie Taggart says the Seminoles have to play a perfect game. I don't think they will.
Pick: Virginia -7. Virginia 31, Florida State 16.
East Carolina Pirates at Navy Midshipmen (-7, 53.5)
I mentioned plenty this offseason that I loved the hire by the Pirates bringing in Mike Houston to run the program. I know he knows how to play defense against the option, I'm just not sure he has the players to stop it.
Pick: Navy -7. Navy 35, ECU 24.
[h=2]Stanford Steve's double-digit favorites he likes to cover[/h]
Army Black Knights (-17, 45) at UTSA Roadrunners
It sucks to have to play Army. It sucks even worse to play a mad Army.
Pick: Army -17. Army 35, UTSA 10.
UMass Minutemen at Charlotte 49ers (-18.5, 68)
The Minutemen might have the worst defense in the country. The roster is thin and the defense was undermanned when Walt Bell took over the program this past offseason. Charlotte head coach Will Healy is a name you will hear plenty about in the future, if you haven't heard about what he did at Austin Peay the past couple seasons. The 49ers need another victory before they head to Clemson next week.
Pick: Charlotte -18.5. Charlotte 51, UMass 23.
[h=2]Stanford Steve's favorite team total over[/h]Oklahoma State Cowboys over 39 (at Tulsa Golden Hurricane)
[h=2]Stanford Steve's underdog that might be worth taking on the money line[/h]Bowling Green Falcons +330 (vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs)
[h=2]Stanford Steve's 3-team, 9-point teaser (-110)[/h]Boston College Eagles -12
Penn State Nittany Lions -8
Oklahoma State Cowboys -5
[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h]This is the first weekend since Week 7 of 2017 that there isn't a single matchup between ranked teams on the schedule. What happened on that October weekend? Seven ranked teams lost and five lost as favorites, including three as favorites of at least 16.5 points. One of those big favorites who lost? Clemson as a 23.5-point favorite that Friday night at Syracuse. Each of the past five weekends where there hasn't been a ranked matchup, at least two ranked teams have lost.
The last time there was a weekend without a ranked matchup that all ranked teams won was Sept. 25, 2004. And that weekend, No. 1 -- and eventual national champion -- USC needed a fourth-quarter TD and rallied from an 11-point halftime deficit to beat what would be a 4-7 Stanford team 31-28.
Here are the past five weekends without a ranked matchup (where ranked team lost):
2017 Week 7 (Oct. 13-14)
No. 2 Clemson (-23.5) at Syracuse, lost 27-24
No. 5 Washington (-18) at Arizona State, lost 13-7
No. 8 Washington State (-16.5) at Cal, lost 37-3
No. 10 Auburn (-7) vs. LSU, lost 27-23
No. 19 San Diego State (-4.5) vs. Boise State, lost 31-14
No. 24 Texas Tech (+4.5) at West Virginia, lost 46-35
No. 25 Navy (+3.5) at Memphis, lost 30-27
2016 Week 2 (Sept. 10)
No. 15 TCU (-9) vs. Arkansas, lost 41-38
No. 22 Oklahoma State (-19) vs. Central Michigan, lost 30-27
2012 Week 2 (Sept. 8)
No. 8 Arkansas (-30.5) vs. UL Monroe, lost 34-31
No. 13 Wisconsin (-7) at Oregon State, lost 10-7
No. 16 Nebraska (-5) at UCLA, lost 36-30
No. 18 Oklahoma State (-10.5) at Arizona, lost 59-38
2009 Week 12 (Nov. 21)
No. 10 LSU (+5) at Ole Miss, lost 25-23
No. 14 Stanford (-7.5) vs. Cal, lost 34-28
No. 17 Wisconsin (-7) at Northwestern, lost 33-31
No. 25 Rutgers (-9.5) at Syracuse, lost 31-13
2008 Week 2 (Sept. 6)
No. 8 West Virginia (-7.5) at East Carolina, lost 24-3
No. 24 South Carolina (-7) at Vanderbilt, lost 24-17
Stanford at UCF
- This is the first time since 2008 at TCU that the Cardinal are an underdog vs. a Group of 5 team. Stanford lost 31-14 at TCU that day as a 14.5-point dog.
- This is the second time in the College Football Playoff era that UCF is favored over a Power 5 team. UCF beat Pitt 45-14 as a 13.5-point favorite in 2018.
- With a victory against Wake, the Tar Heels would become the fifth team to open a season 3-0 winning all three games as an underdog. The others: 2012 Oregon State, 2004 Florida Atlantic, 2001 Fresno State and 1993 Louisiana.
- As a Power 5 head coach, Willie Taggart is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS as a road underdog. Five of the six losses have come by at least 17 points. The only game that didn't was last season's 28-27 loss at Miami. The other five losses came by 29, 19, 35, 17 and 42 points, with Taggart's team failing to cover by an average of 17 PPG.
- Kentucky was an underdog six times last season. The Cats won four of those games outright, including a victory at Florida as a 13.5-point underdog.
- Jeff Brohm is 8-3 ATS with five outright wins as an underdog. The Boilermakers have won the past two games in which they entered as a home 'dog (Ohio State, Boston College).
I certainly appreciate anyone who takes the time to put out a newsletter but to just to take a larger sample of Marc's college football work.. His week 2 sweep was awesome but also a sight for sore eyes as he really only had 3 out of 14 winning weeks all of last year.. weeks 6,7 & 13... other than that :>( it was a rough season. Here is the week by week pick break down and $/unit results. Good Luck to all this Saturday!
Marc Lawrence Playbook wk by wk breakdown 2018
