Ya but a 2* pick is a joke. Why would you release a 2* pick to customers. Why not just release your top picks in the newsletter? Makes no sense at all...who wants to bet a 2* when he releases higher ranking picks. why bother with the lower ranked picks.
Hey guys.
Thought I would step in here for an explanation of star rated plays.
First off, Marc Lawrence is much like most other cappers. None of them have a mathematical or scientific system in most cases to project winners. So, that means that they use trends for possible plays. The better the history of the trend, the higher the rating. Its that simple.
Problem with trends, are, the teams that made those trends aren't on the field today.
Thats why they lose 5 star bets and 2 star bets.
As far as Brad Powers - he likely relies on them as well, but tries to look for other advantages that he personally may like to make the play. There are some of his records posted on his sheets I believe that shows his history over the years. He doesn't always have a 63 percent season.
If fact, the competitors rarely have more than one or two winning years in a row either. Some times they win at Pro and lose on College. Therefor producing non-winning seasons overall.
Powers was great last year. But he may not be great the next.
Most tip sheets rate plays because gamblers without capping skills who buy them, think that the play must be a better bet - when if fact - its usually not. Or, the tout is giving out lower rated plays because he doesn't have any other reason scientifically, to make it a higher rated play.
If you want advice. The smartest thing to do, is make all your bets for the same amount on any given day. As your bankroll grows and your accume is reflective of that, you may increase them. But NEVER get trapped on a 5 star and bet 5 times your bet that you would make on a 1 or 2 star.
The only trend that makes sense in my opinion, is the way a team is playing for the last several weeks against competitive teams. Scientifically - thats it!
If anyone wants to dig deeper into ratings, pointspreads, history and capping, we can do it in the NFL forum. Just let me know.
Hope this clears up a few thoughts...
