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Records:
2018 Newsletter records thru November 19
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Football Podcast:
Marc Lawrence's November 21 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Power Plays
Power Sweep
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Gaming Today November 21-27
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Powers' Picks
VSIN Point Spread Weekly
Sports Reporter
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Wise Guys Contest
Records:
2018 Newsletter records thru November 19
2017 Newsletter records
2016 Newsletter records
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
Rx Newsletter Play of the Week
Football Podcast:
Marc Lawrence's November 21 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Pulled this off my phone so it’s not as pretty this week:
Season records
Steele: 38-32-2 (last week: 4-3)
Coughlin: 38-18-1 ATS (last week: 1-3)
Fallica: 40-30-1 ATS (last week: 1-4)
As we enter the most critical stage in the college football season, each team reveals more about itself by the week, and each game offers a chance for the most observant bettors to take advantage of what they learn. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin pick their top plays across the college football landscape. This week, the column drops a day early to accommodate a couple of games on Thanksgiving and a solid slate of options on Friday.
Here are the best bets for Week 13 of the college football season.
Lines from Westgate SuperBook, as of Wednesday afternoon.
No. 18 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-13.5) at Ole Miss Rebels (O/U 62)
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Coughlin: There will be plenty of emotion in Oxford Thanksgiving night when these two rivals take the field. The rivalry is tied 10-10 in the past 20 meetings. We know how the Bulldogs offense has struggled to throw the ball this year, but Nick Fitzgerald is fresh off his best effort of the year, in which he completed 9 of 14 passes for 127 yards and 4 TDs while running for 85 yards -- including a 2-yard touchdown. He now has 3,387 career rushing yards, extending his Southeastern Conference record for rushing yards by a quarterback.
On the other side, the Ole Miss offense is led by QB Jordan Ta'amu, who has thrown for more than 3,800 yards this year. I think there will be plenty of points in this game, as Ole Miss tries to keep up. Take the over.
ATS pick: Over 62
Score: Mississippi State 38, Ole Miss 30
Colorado State Rams at Air Force Falcons (-14.5; O/U 63)
Thursday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Fallica: I don't think CSU wants any part of dealing with the Air Force running game after nearly pulling the upset last week over Utah State. The Falcons have taken care of bad teams at home this year, easily disposing of Navy and New Mexico. Colorado State managed a win over 1-10 San Jose State in San Jose, but the other games away from home have resulted in losses by 39, 28, 38 and 32. Air Force isn't going bowling, but expect the academy to play out the string with a big win.
ATS pick: Air Force -14.5
Score: Air Force 42, Colorado State 24
No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (-2.5) at No. 13 West Virginia Mountaineers (O/U 84)
Friday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Coughlin: Looking at the Sooners offense, the foot never comes off the gas. Looking at the Mountaineers offense, it gets stuck in neutral sometimes. Mountaineers fans know the history here -- they haven't beaten OU since joining the conference, and they're 0-3 at home. If you liked the Monday Night Football game this past week (I couldn't stand it), then this game is right up your alley; the total is 84! I will take the road team and give the points, because I think too much of Lincoln Riley as a playcaller and I think Kyler Murray makes more plays with this feet than Will Grier does. Lay the points with the road team.
ATS pick: Oklahoma -2.5
Score: Oklahoma 99, West Virginia 90
Houston Cougars at Memphis Tigers (-7; O/U 75)
Friday, 12 p.m. ET (ABC)
Steele: Ed Oliver should return for Houston, but even when Oliver was in at DT, the Houston defense has had a disappointing year. Last week, with their entire defensive line out with injuries, the Cougars allowed a season low in yards (359) among their games against FBS opponents. For the year, Houston is allowing 477 yards per game and 89 yards per game more than their foes usually average -- the latter of which is No. 121 in the country.
Memphis is 27-5 inside the Liberty Bowl over the past five years. Memphis also has an explosive offense led by running back Darrell Henderson, who is the No. 2 rusher in the country (1,521 yards, 17 TDs) and averages 8.7 yards per carry. Quarterback Brady White has a 24-5 TD-INT ratio. Houston has an explosive offense led by D'Eriq King, who has an incredible 36-6 ratio, 676 rush yards and 14 rush TDs. Unfortunately, King was injured last week and is out for the year, and the Cougars must travel and play on a short week while getting a true freshman quarterback ready for his first road start.
ATS pick: Memphis -7
Score: Memphis 47, Houston 31
Washington Huskies at Washington State Cougars (-2.5; O/U 48)
Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Coughlin: I don't like the matchup or the spot for Wazzu, and they might "Coug it" and choke away any lingering hope of the College Football Playoff. I'll take the points.
ATS pick: Washington +2.5
Score: Washington 31, Washington State 30
Virginia Cavaliers (-5) at Virginia Tech Hokies (O/U 50)
Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Steele: Virginia Tech has won 14 straight Commonwealth Cups, but if the Cavaliers are ever going to beat their rival, this is the year to get it done. Bud Foster's Hokie defense was inexperienced and thin at the start of the year, and at this point they've been stricken by departures and injuries. In their past eight games, Virginia Tech is allowing 6.4 yards per carry on the ground and 472 yards per game. On the season, they allow opponents 45 yards per game more than they've otherwise averaged, which is No. 103 in the country.
Virginia Tech had the defensive edge in those 14 straight wins, but now Virginia has a significant defensive edge, as they hold foes to 92 yards per game below their season average, which is 14th-best in the country. Virginia has better numbers in both rushing yards per carry and completion percentage -- and they also have my No. 33 rated special teams, while Virginia Tech checks in at No. 81. Virginia is the stronger team, and Tech has lost four in a row in Lane Stadium.
ATS pick: Virginia -5
Score: Virginia 31, Virginia Tech 21
Coughlin: After 15 years of losing, the 'Hoos want it more. Take the road favorite.
ATS pick: Virginia -5
Score: Virginia 27, Virginia Tech 13
East Carolina Pirates at Cincinnati Bearcats (-19; O/U 50.5)
Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Coughlin: If you have listened to my podcast, you've learned that Pirates freshman QB Holton Ahlers is my new favorite QB in the country. He's taken over the starting job in recent weeks, and Ahlers has already compiled over 1,600 yards and 11 TDs. You can bet the Bearcats will come home and want to take out some frustration after their worst performance of the year, which happened to come in prime time in front of a national audience in their blowout loss at UCF. The problem is that my man, Ahlers, doesn't stop, and will keep chucking the ball until the final horn. I see plenty of points scored in historic Nippert Stadium Friday afternoon. Take the over.
ATS pick: Over 50.5
Score: Cincinnati 41, East Carolina 24
No. 11 Florida Gators (-6.5) at Florida State Seminoles (O/U 52)
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET (ABC)
Fallica: What appeared to be a lost season for FSU has turned into one where the 'Noles can extend their bowl streak by beating the rival Gators. That's something which has been a regular occurrence lately in this storied rivalry, as FSU has won five straight and seven of eight, including last year when the Seminoles needed a win to keep bowl hopes alive. The Gators haven't been great favorites vs. Power 5 teams this season, losing outright to Missouri and Kentucky, as well as hanging on at home vs. South Carolina two weeks ago and needing a huge comeback in Nashville. Florida may win, but I'll take the points here.
ATS pick: Florida State +6.5
Score: Florida 26, Florida State 24
No. 24 Pittsburgh Panthers at Miami Hurricanes (-5; O/U 46)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m ET (ESPN)
Steele: Pitt has had a surprising season. After opening the season at just 3-4, they have now won four in a row and last week wrapped up a berth in the ACC title game with a road win at Wake Forest. Pitt has some time to celebrate, and now takes to the road again with one eye on next week's showdown with Clemson. Last year, Miami had the Coastal division clinched, had the ACC title game against Clemson on deck and suffered their only regular-season loss at Pitt 24-14.
With the tables turned, Miami is out for revenge. Despite Miami's 6-5 record, their defense is holding foes to 128 yards per game below their season average, which is fifth-best in the country. Pitt is being outgained by their opponents this year, while Miami has outgained their opposition by 108 yards per game. It has been very chilly in the North this month, and the temperature in South Florida should be in the 80s. Miami has the better defensive, home, weather, and situational edges and gets a solid home win here.
ATS pick: Miami -5
Score: Miami 30, Pitt 17
Michigan and Ohio State renew one of the most iconic rivalries in sports on Saturday in Columbus, as Michigan looks to make a final push towards the College Football Playoff. Lon Horwedel/Icon Sportswire
No. 4 Michigan Wolverines (-5) at No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes (O/U 56)
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
Coughlin: This just feels like it will be ugly on the offensive side for both teams, and that's for a couple of reasons. First, the weather will be a factor, as it's supposed to rain, so the Buckeyes' passing attack will be challenged by the elements as well as the GATA style that Michigan's defense plays with. Second, you know Ohio State will have a plan to clog up the Wolverines offense. Throw in the relentlessness of the crowd noise in The Horseshoe, and I see Michigan QB Shea Patterson having a frustrating day. I'll say there will not be a lot of points scored. I'll take the under.
ATS pick: Under 56
Score: Ohio State 21, Michigan 20
No. 21 Utah State Aggies at No. 23 Boise State Broncos (-2.5; O/U 66.5)
Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Fallica: Boise knocked off Fresno State as a home dog a few weeks back, but Fresno did lead 17-3 in that game before Boise came back. I think the Utah State offense is better than Fresno's, and if the Aggies can get a lead, they may not allow Boise to be in a position to come back. There's a bit of revenge in play here too, as the Broncos beat Utah State 41-14 last year in Logan. Last week's close call in Fort Collins is a clear indicator to me that the Aggies were looking ahead to this game.
ATS pick: Utah State +2.5
Score: Utah State 33, Boise State 24
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wisconsin Badgers (-11; O/U 54)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Steele: Last year, Wisconsin won Paul Bunyan's Axe for the 14th straight season. This time of year is when Wisconsin's large offensive line takes advantage of worn-down defenses. The Badgers have rushed for 303 yards per game over the past three weeks. Minnesota is 0-4 on the road this year, and the main culprit has been their rush defense, which has allowed 305 yards per game on the ground and 8.3 yards per carry in those road games. Wisconsin typically has the Big Ten title game on deck, but with no such distraction this year, the Gophers have their full attention. Wisconsin is 1-5 as a home favorite this year but were favored by an average of 28.1 in those games -- and this spread is much more reasonable.
ATS pick: Wisconsin -11
Score: Wisconsin 38, Minnesota 17
Maryland Terrapins at No. 12 Penn State Nittany Lions (-13; O/U 53.5)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Fallica: Maryland hasn't shown any quit this season in its effort to get bowl-eligible. After nearly upsetting Ohio State last week, I don't expect them to start giving up now, especially after remembering a humiliating 66-3 defeat to James Franklin's team last year. Penn State has failed to cover each of its past three Big Ten games as a double-digit favorite, and while I do think they will win Trace McSorley's farewell to State College, it won't be without a fight from an offense that should put up points.
ATS pick: Maryland +13
Score: Penn State 38, Maryland 31
Tennessee Volunteers at Vanderbilt Commodores (-3.5; O/U 50.5)
Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Steele: Tennessee went 28-1 in this series from 1983-2011, but Vanderbilt has won four of the past six. Since 1936, Tennessee is 10-2 in this game the year after losing. The winner of this game wraps up a bowl berth, but one of coach Jeremy Pruitt's highest priorities has to be regaining control of this series. Tennessee is 3-0 ATS as a dog in opposing stadiums this year, including an outright upset in Jordan Hare against Auburn. Last week, Vanderbilt beat Ole Miss at home despite being outgained by 191 yards.
In SEC play, Vanderbilt's defense allows foes 73 yards per game above what they average, while Tennessee's defense is holding foes to 20 yards per game below their average. Tennessee should have a decent number of fans on hand, lessening the home edge, and the historical "big brother" is the underdog here and playing with revenge in mind.
ATS pick: Tennessee +3.5
Score: Tennessee 26, Vanderbilt 23
Purdue Boilermakers (-4) at Indiana Hoosiers (O/U 65.5)
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Fallica: Since the win over Ohio State, Purdue has won once -- and that was a fortuitous 38-36 win over Iowa. The winner goes bowling and gets the Old Oaken Bucket. The loser goes home. You have to wonder how much blowing a two-TD fourth-quarter lead in a 3OT loss to Wisconsin will weigh on the Boilermakers here. I vowed to stay away from my friend Indiana this season, but the allure of the Hoosiers as a home dog of more than a field goal is too much.
ATS pick: Indiana +4
Score: Indiana 31, Purdue 28
No. 7 LSU Tigers at No. 22 Texas A&M Aggies (-3; O/U 47)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Steele: LSU comes in with the reputation of having a top-notch defense, and they do. The Tigers allow just 131 yards per game rushing and hold foes to 88 yards per game below their season average. Texas A&M has taken on one of the nation's toughest schedules, having already faced Alabama and Clemson. The Aggies defense only allows 81 yards per game on the ground, and holds foes to 94 yards below their season average -- even stronger numbers than LSU. The Aggies average 81 yards per game more on offense and have my No. 4-rated special teams unit.
My average game grades rate Texas A&M as the No. 10 team in the country, and LSU at No. 21. The No. 22 Aggies will feel like the underdog coming into the game against No. 7 LSU, but Kyle Field will be intense at night in their final home game and Jimbo Fisher's squad is a perfect 6-0 ATS at home this year.
ATS pick: Texas A&M -3
Score: Texas A&M 24, LSU 16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-10.5; O/U 48.5)
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
Fallica: It's been a lost season for WKU, a team that has lost its past three road games by 19, 19 and 26. Tech hasn't been playing its best ball as of late, and these two teams have played close games in the last three regular seasons, but I think Western got their win last week at home against UTEP and the Bulldogs are set up to go into bowl season with a big win of their own.
ATS pick: Louisiana Tech -10.5
Score: Louisiana Tech 44, Western Kentucky 28
Kansas State Wildcats at No. 25 Iowa State Cyclones (-13; O/U 40.5)
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Steele: Iowa State was alive in the chase for the Big 12 title game, but their 28-14 loss last week to Texas could have a bubble-burst effect for the Cyclones. Matt Campbell does a great job firing his team up as an underdog, with several outright upsets thus far in the season. But this year, he is 1-2 ATS in the home favorites role; the lone win in that role was a fortunate late cover in a nine-point win over Texas Tech. Bill Snyder was the underdog king heading into this year, but he's suffered blowout losses to Mississippi State, West Virginia, and Oklahoma, so many feel he has lost his touch.
The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in the other five games they have been a dog, though, including outright upsets of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Iowa State and Kansas State both have top 25 defenses. Kansas State has won the past 10 games in the series, but they are a two-touchdown underdog in this one. Both teams play better as a dog, Kansas State still needs a win to get to a bowl and Iowa State has seemingly little to play for, having just had their Big 12 title dreams crushed last week.
ATS pick: Kansas State +13
Score: Iowa State 17, Kansas State 16
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-13) at UTEP Miners (O/U 44.5)
Saturday, 3 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
Fallica: Southern Miss has won one game vs. FBS opponents by as much as 14 all year -- that was against 0-for-the-season-in-the-FBS Rice. Their past four games have been decided by 1, 3, 2 and 3, which includes a road loss at Charlotte. Yes, USM needs a win for a bowl game, but I have a hard time laying this many points, even at a 1-10 opponent. As long as the Miners don't commit a bunch of turnovers, I give them a good chance to stay within the number.
ATS pick: UTEP +13
Score: Southern Miss 31, UTEP 21
Bonus money line parlay from Chris Fallica
Apologies for not posting last week's here. Gotta remember to listen to the podcast!
(approximate ML for Missouri and Ohio)
Air Force Falcons -700
Ohio Bobcats -2800
Cincinnati Bearcats -1200
Texas Longhorns -750
Missouri Tigers -2800
Toledo Rockets -1100
Georgia Bulldogs -1000
FAU Owls -1000
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -425
Returns approximately $1.45 per unit
Season records
Steele: 38-32-2 (last week: 4-3)
Coughlin: 38-18-1 ATS (last week: 1-3)
Fallica: 40-30-1 ATS (last week: 1-4)
As we enter the most critical stage in the college football season, each team reveals more about itself by the week, and each game offers a chance for the most observant bettors to take advantage of what they learn. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin pick their top plays across the college football landscape. This week, the column drops a day early to accommodate a couple of games on Thanksgiving and a solid slate of options on Friday.
Here are the best bets for Week 13 of the college football season.
Lines from Westgate SuperBook, as of Wednesday afternoon.
No. 18 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-13.5) at Ole Miss Rebels (O/U 62)
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Coughlin: There will be plenty of emotion in Oxford Thanksgiving night when these two rivals take the field. The rivalry is tied 10-10 in the past 20 meetings. We know how the Bulldogs offense has struggled to throw the ball this year, but Nick Fitzgerald is fresh off his best effort of the year, in which he completed 9 of 14 passes for 127 yards and 4 TDs while running for 85 yards -- including a 2-yard touchdown. He now has 3,387 career rushing yards, extending his Southeastern Conference record for rushing yards by a quarterback.
On the other side, the Ole Miss offense is led by QB Jordan Ta'amu, who has thrown for more than 3,800 yards this year. I think there will be plenty of points in this game, as Ole Miss tries to keep up. Take the over.
ATS pick: Over 62
Score: Mississippi State 38, Ole Miss 30
Colorado State Rams at Air Force Falcons (-14.5; O/U 63)
Thursday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Fallica: I don't think CSU wants any part of dealing with the Air Force running game after nearly pulling the upset last week over Utah State. The Falcons have taken care of bad teams at home this year, easily disposing of Navy and New Mexico. Colorado State managed a win over 1-10 San Jose State in San Jose, but the other games away from home have resulted in losses by 39, 28, 38 and 32. Air Force isn't going bowling, but expect the academy to play out the string with a big win.
ATS pick: Air Force -14.5
Score: Air Force 42, Colorado State 24
No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (-2.5) at No. 13 West Virginia Mountaineers (O/U 84)
Friday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Coughlin: Looking at the Sooners offense, the foot never comes off the gas. Looking at the Mountaineers offense, it gets stuck in neutral sometimes. Mountaineers fans know the history here -- they haven't beaten OU since joining the conference, and they're 0-3 at home. If you liked the Monday Night Football game this past week (I couldn't stand it), then this game is right up your alley; the total is 84! I will take the road team and give the points, because I think too much of Lincoln Riley as a playcaller and I think Kyler Murray makes more plays with this feet than Will Grier does. Lay the points with the road team.
ATS pick: Oklahoma -2.5
Score: Oklahoma 99, West Virginia 90
Houston Cougars at Memphis Tigers (-7; O/U 75)
Friday, 12 p.m. ET (ABC)
Steele: Ed Oliver should return for Houston, but even when Oliver was in at DT, the Houston defense has had a disappointing year. Last week, with their entire defensive line out with injuries, the Cougars allowed a season low in yards (359) among their games against FBS opponents. For the year, Houston is allowing 477 yards per game and 89 yards per game more than their foes usually average -- the latter of which is No. 121 in the country.
Memphis is 27-5 inside the Liberty Bowl over the past five years. Memphis also has an explosive offense led by running back Darrell Henderson, who is the No. 2 rusher in the country (1,521 yards, 17 TDs) and averages 8.7 yards per carry. Quarterback Brady White has a 24-5 TD-INT ratio. Houston has an explosive offense led by D'Eriq King, who has an incredible 36-6 ratio, 676 rush yards and 14 rush TDs. Unfortunately, King was injured last week and is out for the year, and the Cougars must travel and play on a short week while getting a true freshman quarterback ready for his first road start.
ATS pick: Memphis -7
Score: Memphis 47, Houston 31
Washington Huskies at Washington State Cougars (-2.5; O/U 48)
Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Coughlin: I don't like the matchup or the spot for Wazzu, and they might "Coug it" and choke away any lingering hope of the College Football Playoff. I'll take the points.
ATS pick: Washington +2.5
Score: Washington 31, Washington State 30
Virginia Cavaliers (-5) at Virginia Tech Hokies (O/U 50)
Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Steele: Virginia Tech has won 14 straight Commonwealth Cups, but if the Cavaliers are ever going to beat their rival, this is the year to get it done. Bud Foster's Hokie defense was inexperienced and thin at the start of the year, and at this point they've been stricken by departures and injuries. In their past eight games, Virginia Tech is allowing 6.4 yards per carry on the ground and 472 yards per game. On the season, they allow opponents 45 yards per game more than they've otherwise averaged, which is No. 103 in the country.
Virginia Tech had the defensive edge in those 14 straight wins, but now Virginia has a significant defensive edge, as they hold foes to 92 yards per game below their season average, which is 14th-best in the country. Virginia has better numbers in both rushing yards per carry and completion percentage -- and they also have my No. 33 rated special teams, while Virginia Tech checks in at No. 81. Virginia is the stronger team, and Tech has lost four in a row in Lane Stadium.
ATS pick: Virginia -5
Score: Virginia 31, Virginia Tech 21
Coughlin: After 15 years of losing, the 'Hoos want it more. Take the road favorite.
ATS pick: Virginia -5
Score: Virginia 27, Virginia Tech 13
East Carolina Pirates at Cincinnati Bearcats (-19; O/U 50.5)
Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Coughlin: If you have listened to my podcast, you've learned that Pirates freshman QB Holton Ahlers is my new favorite QB in the country. He's taken over the starting job in recent weeks, and Ahlers has already compiled over 1,600 yards and 11 TDs. You can bet the Bearcats will come home and want to take out some frustration after their worst performance of the year, which happened to come in prime time in front of a national audience in their blowout loss at UCF. The problem is that my man, Ahlers, doesn't stop, and will keep chucking the ball until the final horn. I see plenty of points scored in historic Nippert Stadium Friday afternoon. Take the over.
ATS pick: Over 50.5
Score: Cincinnati 41, East Carolina 24
No. 11 Florida Gators (-6.5) at Florida State Seminoles (O/U 52)
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET (ABC)
Fallica: What appeared to be a lost season for FSU has turned into one where the 'Noles can extend their bowl streak by beating the rival Gators. That's something which has been a regular occurrence lately in this storied rivalry, as FSU has won five straight and seven of eight, including last year when the Seminoles needed a win to keep bowl hopes alive. The Gators haven't been great favorites vs. Power 5 teams this season, losing outright to Missouri and Kentucky, as well as hanging on at home vs. South Carolina two weeks ago and needing a huge comeback in Nashville. Florida may win, but I'll take the points here.
ATS pick: Florida State +6.5
Score: Florida 26, Florida State 24
No. 24 Pittsburgh Panthers at Miami Hurricanes (-5; O/U 46)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m ET (ESPN)
Steele: Pitt has had a surprising season. After opening the season at just 3-4, they have now won four in a row and last week wrapped up a berth in the ACC title game with a road win at Wake Forest. Pitt has some time to celebrate, and now takes to the road again with one eye on next week's showdown with Clemson. Last year, Miami had the Coastal division clinched, had the ACC title game against Clemson on deck and suffered their only regular-season loss at Pitt 24-14.
With the tables turned, Miami is out for revenge. Despite Miami's 6-5 record, their defense is holding foes to 128 yards per game below their season average, which is fifth-best in the country. Pitt is being outgained by their opponents this year, while Miami has outgained their opposition by 108 yards per game. It has been very chilly in the North this month, and the temperature in South Florida should be in the 80s. Miami has the better defensive, home, weather, and situational edges and gets a solid home win here.
ATS pick: Miami -5
Score: Miami 30, Pitt 17
Michigan and Ohio State renew one of the most iconic rivalries in sports on Saturday in Columbus, as Michigan looks to make a final push towards the College Football Playoff. Lon Horwedel/Icon Sportswire
No. 4 Michigan Wolverines (-5) at No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes (O/U 56)
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
Coughlin: This just feels like it will be ugly on the offensive side for both teams, and that's for a couple of reasons. First, the weather will be a factor, as it's supposed to rain, so the Buckeyes' passing attack will be challenged by the elements as well as the GATA style that Michigan's defense plays with. Second, you know Ohio State will have a plan to clog up the Wolverines offense. Throw in the relentlessness of the crowd noise in The Horseshoe, and I see Michigan QB Shea Patterson having a frustrating day. I'll say there will not be a lot of points scored. I'll take the under.
ATS pick: Under 56
Score: Ohio State 21, Michigan 20
No. 21 Utah State Aggies at No. 23 Boise State Broncos (-2.5; O/U 66.5)
Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Fallica: Boise knocked off Fresno State as a home dog a few weeks back, but Fresno did lead 17-3 in that game before Boise came back. I think the Utah State offense is better than Fresno's, and if the Aggies can get a lead, they may not allow Boise to be in a position to come back. There's a bit of revenge in play here too, as the Broncos beat Utah State 41-14 last year in Logan. Last week's close call in Fort Collins is a clear indicator to me that the Aggies were looking ahead to this game.
ATS pick: Utah State +2.5
Score: Utah State 33, Boise State 24
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wisconsin Badgers (-11; O/U 54)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Steele: Last year, Wisconsin won Paul Bunyan's Axe for the 14th straight season. This time of year is when Wisconsin's large offensive line takes advantage of worn-down defenses. The Badgers have rushed for 303 yards per game over the past three weeks. Minnesota is 0-4 on the road this year, and the main culprit has been their rush defense, which has allowed 305 yards per game on the ground and 8.3 yards per carry in those road games. Wisconsin typically has the Big Ten title game on deck, but with no such distraction this year, the Gophers have their full attention. Wisconsin is 1-5 as a home favorite this year but were favored by an average of 28.1 in those games -- and this spread is much more reasonable.
ATS pick: Wisconsin -11
Score: Wisconsin 38, Minnesota 17
Maryland Terrapins at No. 12 Penn State Nittany Lions (-13; O/U 53.5)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Fallica: Maryland hasn't shown any quit this season in its effort to get bowl-eligible. After nearly upsetting Ohio State last week, I don't expect them to start giving up now, especially after remembering a humiliating 66-3 defeat to James Franklin's team last year. Penn State has failed to cover each of its past three Big Ten games as a double-digit favorite, and while I do think they will win Trace McSorley's farewell to State College, it won't be without a fight from an offense that should put up points.
ATS pick: Maryland +13
Score: Penn State 38, Maryland 31
Tennessee Volunteers at Vanderbilt Commodores (-3.5; O/U 50.5)
Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Steele: Tennessee went 28-1 in this series from 1983-2011, but Vanderbilt has won four of the past six. Since 1936, Tennessee is 10-2 in this game the year after losing. The winner of this game wraps up a bowl berth, but one of coach Jeremy Pruitt's highest priorities has to be regaining control of this series. Tennessee is 3-0 ATS as a dog in opposing stadiums this year, including an outright upset in Jordan Hare against Auburn. Last week, Vanderbilt beat Ole Miss at home despite being outgained by 191 yards.
In SEC play, Vanderbilt's defense allows foes 73 yards per game above what they average, while Tennessee's defense is holding foes to 20 yards per game below their average. Tennessee should have a decent number of fans on hand, lessening the home edge, and the historical "big brother" is the underdog here and playing with revenge in mind.
ATS pick: Tennessee +3.5
Score: Tennessee 26, Vanderbilt 23
Purdue Boilermakers (-4) at Indiana Hoosiers (O/U 65.5)
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Fallica: Since the win over Ohio State, Purdue has won once -- and that was a fortuitous 38-36 win over Iowa. The winner goes bowling and gets the Old Oaken Bucket. The loser goes home. You have to wonder how much blowing a two-TD fourth-quarter lead in a 3OT loss to Wisconsin will weigh on the Boilermakers here. I vowed to stay away from my friend Indiana this season, but the allure of the Hoosiers as a home dog of more than a field goal is too much.
ATS pick: Indiana +4
Score: Indiana 31, Purdue 28
No. 7 LSU Tigers at No. 22 Texas A&M Aggies (-3; O/U 47)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Steele: LSU comes in with the reputation of having a top-notch defense, and they do. The Tigers allow just 131 yards per game rushing and hold foes to 88 yards per game below their season average. Texas A&M has taken on one of the nation's toughest schedules, having already faced Alabama and Clemson. The Aggies defense only allows 81 yards per game on the ground, and holds foes to 94 yards below their season average -- even stronger numbers than LSU. The Aggies average 81 yards per game more on offense and have my No. 4-rated special teams unit.
My average game grades rate Texas A&M as the No. 10 team in the country, and LSU at No. 21. The No. 22 Aggies will feel like the underdog coming into the game against No. 7 LSU, but Kyle Field will be intense at night in their final home game and Jimbo Fisher's squad is a perfect 6-0 ATS at home this year.
ATS pick: Texas A&M -3
Score: Texas A&M 24, LSU 16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-10.5; O/U 48.5)
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
Fallica: It's been a lost season for WKU, a team that has lost its past three road games by 19, 19 and 26. Tech hasn't been playing its best ball as of late, and these two teams have played close games in the last three regular seasons, but I think Western got their win last week at home against UTEP and the Bulldogs are set up to go into bowl season with a big win of their own.
ATS pick: Louisiana Tech -10.5
Score: Louisiana Tech 44, Western Kentucky 28
Kansas State Wildcats at No. 25 Iowa State Cyclones (-13; O/U 40.5)
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Steele: Iowa State was alive in the chase for the Big 12 title game, but their 28-14 loss last week to Texas could have a bubble-burst effect for the Cyclones. Matt Campbell does a great job firing his team up as an underdog, with several outright upsets thus far in the season. But this year, he is 1-2 ATS in the home favorites role; the lone win in that role was a fortunate late cover in a nine-point win over Texas Tech. Bill Snyder was the underdog king heading into this year, but he's suffered blowout losses to Mississippi State, West Virginia, and Oklahoma, so many feel he has lost his touch.
The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in the other five games they have been a dog, though, including outright upsets of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Iowa State and Kansas State both have top 25 defenses. Kansas State has won the past 10 games in the series, but they are a two-touchdown underdog in this one. Both teams play better as a dog, Kansas State still needs a win to get to a bowl and Iowa State has seemingly little to play for, having just had their Big 12 title dreams crushed last week.
ATS pick: Kansas State +13
Score: Iowa State 17, Kansas State 16
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-13) at UTEP Miners (O/U 44.5)
Saturday, 3 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
Fallica: Southern Miss has won one game vs. FBS opponents by as much as 14 all year -- that was against 0-for-the-season-in-the-FBS Rice. Their past four games have been decided by 1, 3, 2 and 3, which includes a road loss at Charlotte. Yes, USM needs a win for a bowl game, but I have a hard time laying this many points, even at a 1-10 opponent. As long as the Miners don't commit a bunch of turnovers, I give them a good chance to stay within the number.
ATS pick: UTEP +13
Score: Southern Miss 31, UTEP 21
Bonus money line parlay from Chris Fallica
Apologies for not posting last week's here. Gotta remember to listen to the podcast!
(approximate ML for Missouri and Ohio)
Air Force Falcons -700
Ohio Bobcats -2800
Cincinnati Bearcats -1200
Texas Longhorns -750
Missouri Tigers -2800
Toledo Rockets -1100
Georgia Bulldogs -1000
FAU Owls -1000
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -425
Returns approximately $1.45 per unit
MEGALOCKS 1st released pick.....overall record so far 8-1-2 (last weeks game cancelled). Still going for 7 straight wins. Happy Turkey Day people!
[FONT="]Memphis 7 Houston (76)……….MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -7[/FONT]
[FONT="]Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 41.5 Houston 34.5[/FONT]
[FONT="]Here we go, baby![/FONT]
[FONT="]Memphis has RISEN FROM THE ASHES and have an opportunity to take down the division with a win over Houston on Friday. The Cougars can also win the division with a victory BUT will have to do so without the services of their excellent (and underrated QB) D’Eriq King. Their entire starting DL has been wiped out by injury but at least they get back star Ed Oliver for this game. Apparently he has recovered from injury but you never know. The Cougs’ receiving group is banged up and they need to go with a true freshman QB in this one. Houston’s D is trending quickly towards HOT GARBAGE (#8 AAC yards per play D; Memphis is #4) and they must face one of the top offenses in college football on the road this Friday. QB Brady White has an awesome 24-5 TD to INT ratio (64%, 9 YPA) and they feature one of the best RBs in college football in Darrell Henderson who has already rushed for over 1,500 yards and 17 TDs (!) at 8.7 yards a pop (!!). “Back-up” Patrick Taylor has 12 rushing TDs and they have a deep WR and TE corps featuring a 1,000-yard receiver (Damonte Coxie). Final thought. Memphis is 27-5 SU in their last 32 home games and HC Norvell has only one game in November during his tenure. Ok. We lied. REALLY final thought. Memphis lost by a point to Navy AND UCF. Both games were seemingly locked up. The Tigers are JACKED UP and playing with house money as they can still win the AAC when that seemed impossible just a month ago.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Official play – Memphis -7.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Memphis 7 Houston (76)……….MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -7[/FONT]
[FONT="]Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 41.5 Houston 34.5[/FONT]
[FONT="]Here we go, baby![/FONT]
[FONT="]Memphis has RISEN FROM THE ASHES and have an opportunity to take down the division with a win over Houston on Friday. The Cougars can also win the division with a victory BUT will have to do so without the services of their excellent (and underrated QB) D’Eriq King. Their entire starting DL has been wiped out by injury but at least they get back star Ed Oliver for this game. Apparently he has recovered from injury but you never know. The Cougs’ receiving group is banged up and they need to go with a true freshman QB in this one. Houston’s D is trending quickly towards HOT GARBAGE (#8 AAC yards per play D; Memphis is #4) and they must face one of the top offenses in college football on the road this Friday. QB Brady White has an awesome 24-5 TD to INT ratio (64%, 9 YPA) and they feature one of the best RBs in college football in Darrell Henderson who has already rushed for over 1,500 yards and 17 TDs (!) at 8.7 yards a pop (!!). “Back-up” Patrick Taylor has 12 rushing TDs and they have a deep WR and TE corps featuring a 1,000-yard receiver (Damonte Coxie). Final thought. Memphis is 27-5 SU in their last 32 home games and HC Norvell has only one game in November during his tenure. Ok. We lied. REALLY final thought. Memphis lost by a point to Navy AND UCF. Both games were seemingly locked up. The Tigers are JACKED UP and playing with house money as they can still win the AAC when that seemed impossible just a month ago.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Official play – Memphis -7.[/FONT]
****BEST BET
Notre Dame over U.S.C.* by 31
The last two weeks have given us a good idea of what to expect from USC in this
matchup. With two chances to both secure a bowl appearance, as well as an opportunity
to show that coach Clay Helton is indeed the man for the job, this team
laid two eggs on the road, losing to rivals California and UCLA. They have now lost
four of five games, putting Helton’s feet over the fire. If they couldn’t get up for
two rivalry games, what reason do we have to think they will be ready to take on
a Notre Dame team that is steamrolling towards the playoffs? With no conference
attachment, this will be the Fighting Irish’s last game before the bowls commence,
and a win will get them in. Even discounting each team’s motivations, Notre Dame
is simply a better football team. QB Ian Book came back from injury last week to
beat a good Syracuse team at Yankee Stadium and he is poised to lead them to victory
again. Notre Dame has the running game to help grind down a Trojan defense
that allows 178.2 rushing yards per game at home. In last year’s game, the Irish ran
for 377 yards and put up 49 points. Book is a superior passer to Brandon Wimbush,
giving them a more balanced attack. USC QB JT Daniels is a far cry from Sam Darnold,
who started for USC last year. He has been fine when you consider his age,
but fine will not be good enough here against the best defense he will see all year.
NOTRE DAME 45-14
Notre Dame over U.S.C.* by 31
The last two weeks have given us a good idea of what to expect from USC in this
matchup. With two chances to both secure a bowl appearance, as well as an opportunity
to show that coach Clay Helton is indeed the man for the job, this team
laid two eggs on the road, losing to rivals California and UCLA. They have now lost
four of five games, putting Helton’s feet over the fire. If they couldn’t get up for
two rivalry games, what reason do we have to think they will be ready to take on
a Notre Dame team that is steamrolling towards the playoffs? With no conference
attachment, this will be the Fighting Irish’s last game before the bowls commence,
and a win will get them in. Even discounting each team’s motivations, Notre Dame
is simply a better football team. QB Ian Book came back from injury last week to
beat a good Syracuse team at Yankee Stadium and he is poised to lead them to victory
again. Notre Dame has the running game to help grind down a Trojan defense
that allows 178.2 rushing yards per game at home. In last year’s game, the Irish ran
for 377 yards and put up 49 points. Book is a superior passer to Brandon Wimbush,
giving them a more balanced attack. USC QB JT Daniels is a far cry from Sam Darnold,
who started for USC last year. He has been fine when you consider his age,
but fine will not be good enough here against the best defense he will see all year.
NOTRE DAME 45-14
“Stanford” Steve Coughlin
Overall (38-18-1) MSU/Ole Miss o62, Oklahoma -2.5, Washington +2.5, Virginia -5, Cincy/ECU o50.5, OSU/UM u56
Chris “The Bear” Fallica
Overall (40-30-1) Air Force -14.5, Florida St +6.5, Utah St +2.5, Maryland +13, Indiana +4, La Tech -10.5, UTEP +13
MEGALOCKS
1st Release (8-1-2) Memphis
Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA Best Bets (31-26-4)
NFL Best Bets (26-16-2)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (5-7) BYU
4* (6-6) Georgia Tech
3* (4-7-1) Ohio St
Upset pick (3-9) Washington
Betcha Didn't Know (4-16-1) USF
Awesome Angle (3-9) USC
Incredible Stat (4-7-1) Oklahoma
Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (8-3) Denver
4* (7-4) Green Bay
3* (6-5) Atlanta
Pointwise NCAA
1* (9-12-2) Pitt, ND
2* (4-8) Ohio
3* (5-7) Clemson
4* (13-9-2) Bama, Houston
5* (15-9) Georgia, Wazzu
Pointwise NFL
3* (3-8) New England
4* (6-15-1) Buffalo, NO
5* (8-14) Cleveland, Indy
PowerSweep NCAA
4* (8-4) TAMU
3* (13-10) Illinois, ND
2* (14-10-1) UNC, UCF
Underdog Play of the Week (5-6-1) Louisiana
Tech Play of the Week (4-2-1) Wake
Revenge Play of the Week (5-6) Ohio
Situational Play of the Week (5-4) Miami-FL
Series Play of the Week (6-3) —
PowerSweep NFL
4* (6-5) Carolina
3* (5-5-1) Indy
2* (3-7-1) Buffalo
NFL System play (6-7) Indy
4* Pro Angle (0-3) —
PowerPlays
NCAA 4.5* (24-15-1) Wazzu, S. Alabama, Ohio
NCAA 4* (24-27) Toledo, SMU, Indiana, TAMU
NFL 4* (7-3-1) Indy
Powers Picks NCAA
3* (14-9) SMU, Nebraska
2* (21-16) Memphis, Ohio St, Stanford
Powers Picks NFL
3* (4-6) Buffalo
2* (17-4-1) Carolina, Denver
Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (4-2)
NCAA Best Bets (19-20) Missouri, Kentucky, Boise, Kansas St
NFL Super Best Bets (1-0)
NFL Best Bets (11-10) Indy, Buffalo
Red Sheet
90* (0-0-1)
89* (12-11) UCF, Notre Dame
88* (21-26-1) Fresno St, Temple, Clemson, Cleveland
Winning Points
NCAA 4* (9-3)
NCAA 3* (4-8)
NFL 4* (5-6)
NFL 3* (5-6)
Killer Sports, not including teasers
MTI 5* (0-2)
MTI 4.5* (6-5-1) SF +3.5
MTI 4* (3-5) Pitt/Denver u47
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (1-6) Washington
SBB 4* (7-7-1) Miami/Indy Over
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (4-7) Seahawks/Panthers OVER
2* (14-8) Bears/Lions OVER, Pats/Jets UNDER
Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (22-23-1) Virginia, FIU, Wazzu
NFL Key Releases (15-15-3) Wash, Seattle, Pitt
Extra Tech Play (8-4) Georgia Tech
Overall (38-18-1) MSU/Ole Miss o62, Oklahoma -2.5, Washington +2.5, Virginia -5, Cincy/ECU o50.5, OSU/UM u56
Chris “The Bear” Fallica
Overall (40-30-1) Air Force -14.5, Florida St +6.5, Utah St +2.5, Maryland +13, Indiana +4, La Tech -10.5, UTEP +13
MEGALOCKS
1st Release (8-1-2) Memphis
Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA Best Bets (31-26-4)
NFL Best Bets (26-16-2)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (5-7) BYU
4* (6-6) Georgia Tech
3* (4-7-1) Ohio St
Upset pick (3-9) Washington
Betcha Didn't Know (4-16-1) USF
Awesome Angle (3-9) USC
Incredible Stat (4-7-1) Oklahoma
Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (8-3) Denver
4* (7-4) Green Bay
3* (6-5) Atlanta
Pointwise NCAA
1* (9-12-2) Pitt, ND
2* (4-8) Ohio
3* (5-7) Clemson
4* (13-9-2) Bama, Houston
5* (15-9) Georgia, Wazzu
Pointwise NFL
3* (3-8) New England
4* (6-15-1) Buffalo, NO
5* (8-14) Cleveland, Indy
PowerSweep NCAA
4* (8-4) TAMU
3* (13-10) Illinois, ND
2* (14-10-1) UNC, UCF
Underdog Play of the Week (5-6-1) Louisiana
Tech Play of the Week (4-2-1) Wake
Revenge Play of the Week (5-6) Ohio
Situational Play of the Week (5-4) Miami-FL
Series Play of the Week (6-3) —
PowerSweep NFL
4* (6-5) Carolina
3* (5-5-1) Indy
2* (3-7-1) Buffalo
NFL System play (6-7) Indy
4* Pro Angle (0-3) —
PowerPlays
NCAA 4.5* (24-15-1) Wazzu, S. Alabama, Ohio
NCAA 4* (24-27) Toledo, SMU, Indiana, TAMU
NFL 4* (7-3-1) Indy
Powers Picks NCAA
3* (14-9) SMU, Nebraska
2* (21-16) Memphis, Ohio St, Stanford
Powers Picks NFL
3* (4-6) Buffalo
2* (17-4-1) Carolina, Denver
Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (4-2)
NCAA Best Bets (19-20) Missouri, Kentucky, Boise, Kansas St
NFL Super Best Bets (1-0)
NFL Best Bets (11-10) Indy, Buffalo
Red Sheet
90* (0-0-1)
89* (12-11) UCF, Notre Dame
88* (21-26-1) Fresno St, Temple, Clemson, Cleveland
Winning Points
NCAA 4* (9-3)
NCAA 3* (4-8)
NFL 4* (5-6)
NFL 3* (5-6)
Killer Sports, not including teasers
MTI 5* (0-2)
MTI 4.5* (6-5-1) SF +3.5
MTI 4* (3-5) Pitt/Denver u47
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (1-6) Washington
SBB 4* (7-7-1) Miami/Indy Over
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (4-7) Seahawks/Panthers OVER
2* (14-8) Bears/Lions OVER, Pats/Jets UNDER
Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (22-23-1) Virginia, FIU, Wazzu
NFL Key Releases (15-15-3) Wash, Seattle, Pitt
Extra Tech Play (8-4) Georgia Tech
Newsletters:
Power Plays
Power Sweep
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Gaming Today November 21-27
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Powers' Picks
VSIN Point Spread Weekly
Sports Reporter
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Wise Guys Contest
Killer Sports NFL Report
Gold Sheet
Gridiron Gold Sheet
Joe Gavazzi's CFB Pointspread Prognosis
Records:
2018 Newsletter records thru November 19
2017 Newsletter records
2016 Newsletter records
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
Rx Newsletter Play of the Week
Football Podcast:
Marc Lawrence's November 21 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Power Plays
Power Sweep
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Gaming Today November 21-27
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Powers' Picks
VSIN Point Spread Weekly
Sports Reporter
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Wise Guys Contest
Killer Sports NFL Report
Gold Sheet
Gridiron Gold Sheet
Joe Gavazzi's CFB Pointspread Prognosis
Records:
2018 Newsletter records thru November 19
2017 Newsletter records
2016 Newsletter records
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
Rx Newsletter Play of the Week
Football Podcast:
Marc Lawrence's November 21 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
