Newsletter Tracking (through 12/11/17)
Mendoza Line cumulative year to date record through December 11:
Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.
Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.
I'm tracking NFL only from this point on.
This week's free money was Arizona. Nearly every newsletter had them as a top play.
Marc Lawrence Playbook
Upset pick (4-10-1)
Betcha Didn't Know (10-8)
Awesome Angle (11-6)
Incredible Stat (6-8-1)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL (3-0 this week)
5* (9-5)
4* (5-9)
3* (4-10)
Pointwise NFL (0-5 this week)
3* (5-9)
4* (14-13-1)
5* (15-13)
PowerSweep NFL
4* (10-4)
3* (9-4-1)
2* (7-7)
NFL System play (6-7-1)
4* Pro Angle (3-1)
Powers Picks NFL (3-0 this week)
4* (0-1)
3* (5-6-1)
2* (16-12)
1* (0-0)
Sports Reporter
NFL Super Best Bets (0-1)
NFL Best Bets (14-13-1)
Winning Points (2-0 this week)
NFL 4* (6-8)
NFL 3* (8-6)
Killer Sports, not including teasers
MTI 5* (2-0)
MTI 4.5* (11-2)
MTI 4* (5-8)
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (4-0)
SBB 4* (10-14)
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (8-6)
2* (14-13-1)
PowerPlays
NFL 4* (6-8)
Gold Sheet
NFL Key Releases (19-23)
Last Year's Newsletter records
Mendoza Line cumulative year to date record through December 11:
Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.
Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.
I'm tracking NFL only from this point on.
This week's free money was Arizona. Nearly every newsletter had them as a top play.
Marc Lawrence Playbook
Upset pick (4-10-1)
Betcha Didn't Know (10-8)
Awesome Angle (11-6)
Incredible Stat (6-8-1)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL (3-0 this week)
5* (9-5)
4* (5-9)
3* (4-10)
Pointwise NFL (0-5 this week)
3* (5-9)
4* (14-13-1)
5* (15-13)
PowerSweep NFL
4* (10-4)
3* (9-4-1)
2* (7-7)
NFL System play (6-7-1)
4* Pro Angle (3-1)
Powers Picks NFL (3-0 this week)
4* (0-1)
3* (5-6-1)
2* (16-12)
1* (0-0)
Sports Reporter
NFL Super Best Bets (0-1)
NFL Best Bets (14-13-1)
Winning Points (2-0 this week)
NFL 4* (6-8)
NFL 3* (8-6)
Killer Sports, not including teasers
MTI 5* (2-0)
MTI 4.5* (11-2)
MTI 4* (5-8)
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (4-0)
SBB 4* (10-14)
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (8-6)
2* (14-13-1)
PowerPlays
NFL 4* (6-8)
Gold Sheet
NFL Key Releases (19-23)
Last Year's Newsletter records
Update - Thanks guys!
Newsletter Recap:
Winning Points
Gridiron Gold Sheet
Gridiron Gold Sheet Bowl Issue #1
Pointwise
Gold Sheet
Power Sweep Bowl Issue
Power Plays Bowl Issue
Gaming Today
VSIN Bowl Guide Volume 1
Victor King's NFL Tipsheet
Statfox College Bowl Guide
Powers' Picks
This Year's Newsletter records through December 11
Last Year's Newsletter records
Football Podcast:
Marc Lawrence's December 13 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Newsletter Recap:
Winning Points
Gridiron Gold Sheet
Gridiron Gold Sheet Bowl Issue #1
Pointwise
Gold Sheet
Power Sweep Bowl Issue
Power Plays Bowl Issue
Gaming Today
VSIN Bowl Guide Volume 1
Victor King's NFL Tipsheet
Statfox College Bowl Guide
Powers' Picks
This Year's Newsletter records through December 11
Last Year's Newsletter records
Football Podcast:
Marc Lawrence's December 13 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Sharp's Football Analysis early week release..........
12/16/17 || 303 Chicago Bears +6I've played on the Chicago Bears more than any other team this year. In the 9 weeks between weeks 3 and 11, we'vetaken them 5 times and hit 4-1 ATS. The last time we took the Bears was week 11, against these same Lions. Wegrabbed +3.5, and the Bears jumped out to a 10-0 lead and a 17-7 lead, which wasn't 17-0 only because Mitchell Trubiskyfumbled a snap and the Lions returned it 27 yards for a defensive TD. The Bears ended up covering thanks to the hook,which is one reason I want to get on this side at +6, before the line continues to trend down.So it shouldn't be too surprising that we'd jump on the Bears early this week. A big reason for liking the Bears in thesematchups against the Lions is the strength of the Bears is met by the weakness of the Lions: rushing the football.Chicago has faced one of the most brutal stretches of run defenses in the NFL. But the Lions run defense is one of theweakest they've faced. In that week 11 meeting, the Bears were DOMINANT on the ground, and I have to add emphasis tothat word. They ran the ball for 222 yards, at 7.4 yards per carry and a 60% success rate. To run the ball 30 times andproduce 222 yards is amazing. But add to it that this wasn't just a few huge runs, but a consistent 60% success rate? That's unbelievable. The Bears are not even a great rushing offense. They rank about league average. And part of that has to do with thetough schedule. But the Lions run defense has been getting gashed with frequency.Since that Bears game, recall that on Thanksgiving we took Latavius Murray over his rushing yards prop when the Lionshosted the Vikings, and that went over in the 3rd quarter. The next week, the Lions traveled to the Ravens. The RavensMy AccountMy PlaysChange PasswordEmail PreferencesLogoutchose to pass all over the Lions (they went 66% pass through the game's first 3 quarters), but when they decided to handthe ball off to lead back Alex Collins, he crushed, recording a 67% success rate and averaging 5 yards per carry. Then lastweek, the Lions traveled to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers. Though they trailed most of the game, the Buccaneersand their 26th ranked run offense remained a 41% share of the offense simply because the efficiency which was gainedwas too good to pass up: Tampa Bay recorded a 64% success rate on run plays and averaged 4.8 yards per carry. And theBuccaneers are one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL.That takes us to the trending performance of the Lions run defense, which is a story that focuses on strength of scheduleand key injury.From weeks 1-5, when Haloti Ngata was in the starting line-up, the Lions run defense ranked #6 in rushing success rateallowed (39%) and 10th in explosive run rate allowed (10th). But in hindsight, there were some issues. This solid successcame against the 3rd easiest schedule of rushing offenses. Then, the Lions lost Ngata. And since week 6, the Lions have played the #1 most difficult schedule of rushing offenses. And that spelled disaster. From week 6 onward, the Lions run defense ranks 31st in rushing success rate allowed (54%)and 27th in explosive run rate allowed (14%). Back to discussing the Bears, they are still cranking away with production on the ground, recording 232 rushing yards lastweek, a 6.1 YPC and 55% success rate on the ground. Both Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen averaged over 6 YPC. The below graphic, courtesy of Sharp Football Stats, depicts the extent of the failings of the Lions defense in recentweeks. And keep in mind these came against very mediocre to poor offenses. Even the Cleveland Browns posted a 61%success rate on their rushes. And the Bears posted a 30% explosive run rate in their last meeting. With a strong,explosive run game, I see the Bears staying in this one from start to finish.
12/16/17 || 303 Chicago Bears +6I've played on the Chicago Bears more than any other team this year. In the 9 weeks between weeks 3 and 11, we'vetaken them 5 times and hit 4-1 ATS. The last time we took the Bears was week 11, against these same Lions. Wegrabbed +3.5, and the Bears jumped out to a 10-0 lead and a 17-7 lead, which wasn't 17-0 only because Mitchell Trubiskyfumbled a snap and the Lions returned it 27 yards for a defensive TD. The Bears ended up covering thanks to the hook,which is one reason I want to get on this side at +6, before the line continues to trend down.So it shouldn't be too surprising that we'd jump on the Bears early this week. A big reason for liking the Bears in thesematchups against the Lions is the strength of the Bears is met by the weakness of the Lions: rushing the football.Chicago has faced one of the most brutal stretches of run defenses in the NFL. But the Lions run defense is one of theweakest they've faced. In that week 11 meeting, the Bears were DOMINANT on the ground, and I have to add emphasis tothat word. They ran the ball for 222 yards, at 7.4 yards per carry and a 60% success rate. To run the ball 30 times andproduce 222 yards is amazing. But add to it that this wasn't just a few huge runs, but a consistent 60% success rate? That's unbelievable. The Bears are not even a great rushing offense. They rank about league average. And part of that has to do with thetough schedule. But the Lions run defense has been getting gashed with frequency.Since that Bears game, recall that on Thanksgiving we took Latavius Murray over his rushing yards prop when the Lionshosted the Vikings, and that went over in the 3rd quarter. The next week, the Lions traveled to the Ravens. The RavensMy AccountMy PlaysChange PasswordEmail PreferencesLogoutchose to pass all over the Lions (they went 66% pass through the game's first 3 quarters), but when they decided to handthe ball off to lead back Alex Collins, he crushed, recording a 67% success rate and averaging 5 yards per carry. Then lastweek, the Lions traveled to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers. Though they trailed most of the game, the Buccaneersand their 26th ranked run offense remained a 41% share of the offense simply because the efficiency which was gainedwas too good to pass up: Tampa Bay recorded a 64% success rate on run plays and averaged 4.8 yards per carry. And theBuccaneers are one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL.That takes us to the trending performance of the Lions run defense, which is a story that focuses on strength of scheduleand key injury.From weeks 1-5, when Haloti Ngata was in the starting line-up, the Lions run defense ranked #6 in rushing success rateallowed (39%) and 10th in explosive run rate allowed (10th). But in hindsight, there were some issues. This solid successcame against the 3rd easiest schedule of rushing offenses. Then, the Lions lost Ngata. And since week 6, the Lions have played the #1 most difficult schedule of rushing offenses. And that spelled disaster. From week 6 onward, the Lions run defense ranks 31st in rushing success rate allowed (54%)and 27th in explosive run rate allowed (14%). Back to discussing the Bears, they are still cranking away with production on the ground, recording 232 rushing yards lastweek, a 6.1 YPC and 55% success rate on the ground. Both Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen averaged over 6 YPC. The below graphic, courtesy of Sharp Football Stats, depicts the extent of the failings of the Lions defense in recentweeks. And keep in mind these came against very mediocre to poor offenses. Even the Cleveland Browns posted a 61%success rate on their rushes. And the Bears posted a 30% explosive run rate in their last meeting. With a strong,explosive run game, I see the Bears staying in this one from start to finish.
sshz - thanks for posting Sharp’s game analysis. I find it very informative, and he was bang-on again last week with Cle giving GB all they could handle. Any chance you could post Sharp’s analysis for more games each week? If they are available to you, of course. GL with your wagers this week. Cheers.
How to post newsletters using google drive
You can use google drive Nineral, its safe and free.
Download the Killer Sports Newsletter file to your computer. Open google drive and click on My Drive (top center). Then click upload files. You should then be able to see everything on your hard drive under downloads. Find the Killer Sports file and highlight it by clicking on it. Once highlighted, click open.
Once it is uploaded, click on the 'get shareable link' - it is located to the right of 'your drive' at the top. You will then be given a google drive link. Under that, click share settings. You will see another google drive link. Copy and paste that link in the thread and you are finished.
I normally copy and paste the link in another window to verify its working correctly but you don't have to.
Link for more info
You can use google drive Nineral, its safe and free.
Download the Killer Sports Newsletter file to your computer. Open google drive and click on My Drive (top center). Then click upload files. You should then be able to see everything on your hard drive under downloads. Find the Killer Sports file and highlight it by clicking on it. Once highlighted, click open.
Once it is uploaded, click on the 'get shareable link' - it is located to the right of 'your drive' at the top. You will then be given a google drive link. Under that, click share settings. You will see another google drive link. Copy and paste that link in the thread and you are finished.
I normally copy and paste the link in another window to verify its working correctly but you don't have to.
Link for more info
