Sharp Football Analysis released a pick tonight........
Week 14 Personal PlayPlay Type: Personal PlaysTeam: CLESpread: +3.5 -11212/10/17 || 118 Cleveland Browns +3.5 (1 unit)The last two games told me everything I needed to know about the Packers, who are hanging by a thread to make theplayoffs. On the road against the Steelers, Mike McCarthy let it all hang out. As large 14 point underdogs, the Packerschances to win this game were not high. So McCarthy took a high risk but high reward strategy:On early downs, McCarthy went 50% pass and on 3rd down, 69% pass. He called for a lot of deep shot plays from BrettHundley: 10 of Hundley's 26 passes (38%) were 15+ yards in the air. He basically had Hundley go for broke, knowing thatthey had to find a way to outscore the Steelers and doing it through chunk plays in the pass game was the most likely wayto get it done. Last week, that was far from the plan. At home against the Buccaneers, Green Bay could have implemented that samestrategy. After all, Hundley pass the ball all over the Steelers and their 7th rated pass defense the prior week. And theBuccaneers had the 30th ranked pass defense. In fact, in Hundley's prior 5 starts, he faced pass defenses ranked 2, 5, 7,14 and 15. The Bucs 30th ranked pass defense would have been the perfect time to air it out. But instead, McCarthy hid Hundley in the offense. They went 74% run on early downs in the first half, and 63% run on allearly downs in the game. Hundley only completed 13 passes the entire game, on 22 attempts. He averaged just 3.8yards per attempt and totaled only 84 passing yards, while posting a 48 passer rating. Essentially the game plan, from a desperate Packers team, was to use a very low variance strategy and try to secure thewin. While the deep passing strategy worked against the Steelers, McCarthy did not want to go that route in this game. My AccountMy PlaysChange PasswordEmail PreferencesLogoutOnly 5 of Hundley's passes even traveled 15+ yards in the air. The Bucs didn't have a strong pass rush, ranking 32nd onthe season. But the Packers didn't look to use the passing game to win this game, and instead, tried to win it on theground.Based on studying McCarthy's decisions with his young QB, I believe this final game before Aaron Rodgers can return willbe one that is highly conservative from the Packers offense. With the win last week, and the fact they are now 6-6 andplaying the winless Browns, I believe McCarthy will approach this game similarly to what he did last week. If the Packerscan win this game, and get Rodgers back for the final 3 games, the playoffs are certainly more than a glimmer, they feellike a certainty for the Packers. Rodgers is playing the scout QB this week in practice, and all of the players are literallygiddy when asked how Rodgers is looking in practice. The problem for the Packers is that their strategy won't work so well against the Browns. Cleveland has the #2 rundefense in the NFL. It's the strength of their entire team. It's better than any run defense the Packers have faced thisyear. They have played just 3 games against top-10 run defenses this year, and they lost all 3 games: 23-0, 23-10 and 31-28. The Browns are desperate. This is the 2nd to last home game of the year and they are winless. In two of the last 3weeks, they have played top-6 pass defenses, in the Jaguars and Chargers. The Packers pass defense ranks 22nd. TheBrowns have played 3 games all year against pass defenses that rank below 17th. They lost by 3 points in each game: 31-28 to the Colts, 17-14 to the Jets and 12-9 to the Titans. Their next opponent is the Ravens, with the #2 pass defense. This is the Browns shot.They just received the services of their top 2 WRs back, as Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman started together last weekfor the first time. The Chargers are one of the best teams in the NFL at defending WR passes. They allow just 6.5 yardsper target, which ranks 2nd best. In fact, the last 3 weeks, the Browns offense has faced the #1 (Jaguars), #2 (Chargers)and #4 (Bengals) defenses in YPA allowed to WRs. In the Packers, they now get to face the #31 ranked team, which isallowing a massive 8.7 YPA to WRs. They also allow 55% of WR targets to grade as successful, also #31. While DeShoneKizer was 4/15 when targeting these two receivers against the #2 WR-pass D of the Chargers, I anticipate a much easiertime against this Packers defense. Plus, it's week 2 with Gordon, which means time to address the things that didn't worklast week and get on the same page this week.The Browns have covered just 2 of their last 11 games, and are obviously 0-12 SU on the season. This will be just thesecond time I've been on the Browns this season. I was on the Packers ML last week, and after seeing the Packersperformance in the first half, we jumped on TB at halftime and hit both, middling the game. This Browns team is stillshowing fight. There is no chance they want to end up 0-16, nor does winning a game preclude them from being in thedriver's seat for the #1 overall selection. With the edges I've outlined, both offensively and defensively, I hope they canget it done against a Packers team which I think may play somewhat conservatively, playing it close to the vest andmerely hoping for Hundley to deliver one, close win before Rodgers returns.
Week 14 Personal PlayPlay Type: Personal PlaysTeam: CLESpread: +3.5 -11212/10/17 || 118 Cleveland Browns +3.5 (1 unit)The last two games told me everything I needed to know about the Packers, who are hanging by a thread to make theplayoffs. On the road against the Steelers, Mike McCarthy let it all hang out. As large 14 point underdogs, the Packerschances to win this game were not high. So McCarthy took a high risk but high reward strategy:On early downs, McCarthy went 50% pass and on 3rd down, 69% pass. He called for a lot of deep shot plays from BrettHundley: 10 of Hundley's 26 passes (38%) were 15+ yards in the air. He basically had Hundley go for broke, knowing thatthey had to find a way to outscore the Steelers and doing it through chunk plays in the pass game was the most likely wayto get it done. Last week, that was far from the plan. At home against the Buccaneers, Green Bay could have implemented that samestrategy. After all, Hundley pass the ball all over the Steelers and their 7th rated pass defense the prior week. And theBuccaneers had the 30th ranked pass defense. In fact, in Hundley's prior 5 starts, he faced pass defenses ranked 2, 5, 7,14 and 15. The Bucs 30th ranked pass defense would have been the perfect time to air it out. But instead, McCarthy hid Hundley in the offense. They went 74% run on early downs in the first half, and 63% run on allearly downs in the game. Hundley only completed 13 passes the entire game, on 22 attempts. He averaged just 3.8yards per attempt and totaled only 84 passing yards, while posting a 48 passer rating. Essentially the game plan, from a desperate Packers team, was to use a very low variance strategy and try to secure thewin. While the deep passing strategy worked against the Steelers, McCarthy did not want to go that route in this game. My AccountMy PlaysChange PasswordEmail PreferencesLogoutOnly 5 of Hundley's passes even traveled 15+ yards in the air. The Bucs didn't have a strong pass rush, ranking 32nd onthe season. But the Packers didn't look to use the passing game to win this game, and instead, tried to win it on theground.Based on studying McCarthy's decisions with his young QB, I believe this final game before Aaron Rodgers can return willbe one that is highly conservative from the Packers offense. With the win last week, and the fact they are now 6-6 andplaying the winless Browns, I believe McCarthy will approach this game similarly to what he did last week. If the Packerscan win this game, and get Rodgers back for the final 3 games, the playoffs are certainly more than a glimmer, they feellike a certainty for the Packers. Rodgers is playing the scout QB this week in practice, and all of the players are literallygiddy when asked how Rodgers is looking in practice. The problem for the Packers is that their strategy won't work so well against the Browns. Cleveland has the #2 rundefense in the NFL. It's the strength of their entire team. It's better than any run defense the Packers have faced thisyear. They have played just 3 games against top-10 run defenses this year, and they lost all 3 games: 23-0, 23-10 and 31-28. The Browns are desperate. This is the 2nd to last home game of the year and they are winless. In two of the last 3weeks, they have played top-6 pass defenses, in the Jaguars and Chargers. The Packers pass defense ranks 22nd. TheBrowns have played 3 games all year against pass defenses that rank below 17th. They lost by 3 points in each game: 31-28 to the Colts, 17-14 to the Jets and 12-9 to the Titans. Their next opponent is the Ravens, with the #2 pass defense. This is the Browns shot.They just received the services of their top 2 WRs back, as Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman started together last weekfor the first time. The Chargers are one of the best teams in the NFL at defending WR passes. They allow just 6.5 yardsper target, which ranks 2nd best. In fact, the last 3 weeks, the Browns offense has faced the #1 (Jaguars), #2 (Chargers)and #4 (Bengals) defenses in YPA allowed to WRs. In the Packers, they now get to face the #31 ranked team, which isallowing a massive 8.7 YPA to WRs. They also allow 55% of WR targets to grade as successful, also #31. While DeShoneKizer was 4/15 when targeting these two receivers against the #2 WR-pass D of the Chargers, I anticipate a much easiertime against this Packers defense. Plus, it's week 2 with Gordon, which means time to address the things that didn't worklast week and get on the same page this week.The Browns have covered just 2 of their last 11 games, and are obviously 0-12 SU on the season. This will be just thesecond time I've been on the Browns this season. I was on the Packers ML last week, and after seeing the Packersperformance in the first half, we jumped on TB at halftime and hit both, middling the game. This Browns team is stillshowing fight. There is no chance they want to end up 0-16, nor does winning a game preclude them from being in thedriver's seat for the #1 overall selection. With the edges I've outlined, both offensively and defensively, I hope they canget it done against a Packers team which I think may play somewhat conservatively, playing it close to the vest andmerely hoping for Hundley to deliver one, close win before Rodgers returns.
Update - Thanks guys!
Newsletter Recap:
Winning Points
Power Sweep
Power Plays
Sports Reporter
Gridiron Gold Sheet
Gaming Today
Powers' Picks
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1T_mmumeatRHUuc2grJvqlLqCCYU-q9hP/viewhttps://drive.google.com/file/d/1SqW88ALpMy4N5_PV5r19VyoBCsKU1bON/viewMarc Lawrence's Playbook
This Year's Newsletter records through December 3
Last Year's Newsletter records
Football Podcast:
https://soundcloud.com/marclawrencepodcast/2017-11-22-marc-lawrenceagainst-the-spreadMarc Lawrence's December 6 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Newsletter Recap:
Winning Points
Power Sweep
Power Plays
Sports Reporter
Gridiron Gold Sheet
Gaming Today
Powers' Picks
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1T_mmumeatRHUuc2grJvqlLqCCYU-q9hP/viewhttps://drive.google.com/file/d/1SqW88ALpMy4N5_PV5r19VyoBCsKU1bON/viewMarc Lawrence's Playbook
This Year's Newsletter records through December 3
Last Year's Newsletter records
Football Podcast:
https://soundcloud.com/marclawrencepodcast/2017-11-22-marc-lawrenceagainst-the-spreadMarc Lawrence's December 6 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
| WEEK | MATT & PR - SP | MATT & PR - TOTAL | MATT & BR - SP | MATT & BR - TOTAL | PR & BR - SPREAD | PR & BR - TOTAL | ALL 3 - SPREAD | ALL 3 - TOTAL | ||||||||||||||||
| W | L | % | W | L | % | W | L | % | W | L | % | W | L | % | W | L | % | W | L | % | W | L | % | |
| TOTAL | 25 | 6 | 80.6 | 18 | 10 | 64.3 | 24 | 7 | 77.4 | 15 | 10 | 60.0 | 26 | 16 | 61.9 | 26 | 19 | 57.8 | 19 | 4 | 82.6 | 11 | 6 | 64.7 |
| WEEKS 1-7 | 16 | 3 | 84.2 | 9 | 3 | 75.0 | 16 | 3 | 84.2 | 9 | 4 | 69.2 | 17 | 5 | 77.3 | 15 | 10 | 60.0 | 12 | 2 | 85.7 | 6 | 2 | 75.0 |
| WEEK 8 | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 50.0 | 1 | 4 | 20.0 | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 |
| WEEK 9 | 3 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 1 | 66.7 | 2 | 1 | 66.7 | 2 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| WEEK 10 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 2 | 1 | 66.7 | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |
| WEEK 11 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 1 | 3 | 25.0 | 2 | 0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 P | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| WEEK 12 | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 3 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 2 | 33.3 | 3 | 0 | 100.0 | 1 | 3 | 25.0 | 4 | 1 | 80.0 | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 3 | 0 | 100.0 |
| WEEK 13 | 3 | 1 | 75.0 | 3 | 1 | 75.0 | 3 | 0 | 100.0 | 2 | 0 | 100.0 | 3 | 1 | 75.0 | 2 | 1 | 66.7 | 3 | 0 | 100.0 | 2 | 0 | 100.0 |
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:3620;width:74pt" width="99"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1755;width:36pt" width="48"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2011; width:41pt" span="2" width="55"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1718; width:35pt" span="2" width="47"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2084;width:43pt" width="57"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1718;width:35pt" width="47"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1865;width:38pt" width="51"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2011;width:41pt" width="55"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1718;width:35pt" width="47"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1426;width:29pt" width="39"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1865;width:38pt" width="51"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1718; width:35pt" span="2" width="47"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2011;width:41pt" width="55"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1718; width:35pt" span="2" width="47"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2011;width:41pt" width="55"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1718;width:35pt" width="47"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1682;width:35pt" width="46"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2011;width:41pt" width="55"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1718;width:35pt" width="47"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1426;width:29pt" width="39"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2011;width:41pt" width="55"> </colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>
MATT & POWER RATINGS (PR) - SPREAD: 25-6 - PICK IS ON THE LEFT
| ATL | NO | 2.00 |
| KC | OAK | (4.00) |
| CAR | MN | 3.00 |
| WA | LAC | (6.00) |
<colgroup><col><col span="2"></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>
MATT & PR - OVER/UNDER: 18-10
| ATL | UNDER | 53.00 |
| CAR | OVER | 41.00 |
| WA | OVER | 45.50 |
| BAL | UNDER | 44.00 |
<colgroup><col span="2"><col></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>
MATT & BETTOR RATINGS (BR) VS SPREAD: 24-7
| ATL | NO | 2.00 |
| KC | OAK | (4.00) |
| CAR | MN | 3.00 |
| WA | LAC | (6.00) |
<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>
MATT AND BR VS OVER/UNDER: 15-10
| ATL | UNDER | 53.00 |
| CAR | OVER | 41.00 |
| WA | OVER | 45.50 |
<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>
PR & BR VS SPREAD: 26-16
| ATL | NO | 2.00 |
| KC | OAK | (4.00) |
| CAR | MN | 3.00 |
| WA | LAC | (6.00) |
| PIT | BAL | (6.00) |
<colgroup><col span="2"><col></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>
PR & BR VS OVER/UNDER: 26-19
| ATL | UNDER | 53.00 |
| KC | UNDER | 47.50 |
| CAR | OVER | 41.00 |
| WA | OVER | 45.50 |
<colgroup><col span="2"><col></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>
ALL 3 VS SPREAD: 19-4
| ATL | NO | 2.00 |
| KC | OAK | (4.00) |
| CAR | MN | 3.00 |
| WA | LAC | (6.00) |
<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>
ALL 3 VS TOTAL: 11-6
| ATL | UNDER | 53.00 |
| CAR | OVER | 41.00 |
| WA | OVER | 45.50 |
<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>
Phil Steele Inside the Pressbox - NFL Week 14 http://plus.philsteele.com/inside_the_pressbox/2017/NFL/Week_14/ITPB_NFL_WK_14.pdf
