Gold Sheet
PAGE 8
THE
GOLD
SHEET
MONDAY, APRIL 4
NCAA TITLE GAME
at NRG Stadium, Houston We (and many of our longtime readers) have seen a lot of basketball over the years. So forgive us
if comparisons to past teams and games come to mind every year during the
Big Dance. Case in point was Villanova’s eye-opening 95-51 thrashing of
Oklahoma in Saturday’s Final Four semifinal. Before the game was complete,
we had messages from Philly-based oldtimers who were comparing that
result to the 1971 East Regional final, when Jack Kraft’s Nova, featuring
Howard Porter, would bury Big Five rival Penn by an unexpected similar
scoreline (90-47) in the Elite Eight. Of course, others (us included) were
recalling the Wildcats’ memorable 1985 title game shocker over Georgetown
when Rollie Massimino’s Wildcats would shoot an astounding 78% from the
floor. For a while vs. the Sooners on Saturday, the Big Five entry appeared as
if it might match the exploits of its predecessors featuring Eddie Pinckney,
Harold Jensen, and others from 31 years ago in Lexington before ending up
“only” 71.4% with their FG attempts vs. OU.
Indeed, that Saturday rout was historic, as there had never been such a
one-sided result in a Final Four. In
Bob Beamon-at-Mexico City 1968-like
fashion
, that 44-point margin smashed the previous Final Four blowout high of
36 points, set by Princeton in a consolation-game win over Wichita State in
1965 at Portland when Bill Bradley would score a tourney-record 58 points. It
was also a a semifinal-high 34 points, besting Ed Jucker’s Cincinnati team that
throttled a Slats Gill-coached Oregon State featuring Mel Counts in the 1963
event at Louisville, the night before the Bearcats would be denied a third
straight title in an OT thriller vs. Loyola-Chicago, chronicled on these pages in
the past, and Magic Johnson-led Michigan State’s 101-67 romp past Ivy
League Penn at the 1979 Final Four at Salt Lake City.
(Yes, the NCAA used to
hold Final Fours in places such as Salt Lake City and Albuquerque!)
Such perfection as demonstrated by Jay Wright’s team on Saturday has
become almost commonplace for the current Nova that has pitched four near-
perfect games in a row, beginning with a second-round demolition of Iowa
.
To
paraphrase the late, great race caller Chic Anderson from Secretariat’s 1973
Belmont Stakes,
“Villanova is moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE!”
But the question for Monday night is how much different a challenge North
Carolina presents than the Hawkeyes, Miami, Kansas, and Oklahoma squads
that have been brushed aside (all easily, save the Jayhawks) in the Cats’
recent surge.
We suggest that it’s plenty different, though the Wildcats rate
better than a puncher’s chance vs. the Tar Heels
.
Nova’s starting five (Hart, Arcidiacono, Jenkins, Ochefu, and Brunson) has
been spectacular in recent weeks, as their collective aggression has totally
unnerved recent foes, especially Miami and Oklahoma. With each missed OU
three-ball on Saturday, the Cats continued to pile on the pressure, taking
almost everything away from the guard-oriented Sooners, and since OU’s
bigs do not score, the game got out of hand. We are also no longer believing
Nova is too small, as the emergence of 6-11 Daniel Ochefu and the ability to
stifle a big Kansas team in the Elite Eight would confirm. Moreover, the Cats
have been almost flawless on attack, converting close to 60% of their FG tries
in the Dance, with few empty trips on Saturday when scoring almost at will
every time the ball got into the paint vs. OU, and for good measure connecting
on 61% of their triples against the Sooners.
Whew!
That sort of success, however, is not likely to recur vs. the Tar
Heels, longer and taller than any foe (Kansas included) that Nova has
had to deal with thus far.
The ability of Arcidiacono and Hart to careen into
the paint and make positive things happen on the attack end is going to be
considerably tougher vs. the Carolina bigs than Oklahoma’s resistance on
Saturday.
If that element is taken away, the entire Nova offensive mechanism
risks breaking down, and Cats are going to have to be red-hot from outside,
of which they are capable, but will have to replicate their recent efforts.
Matching the off-the-charts Nova intensity and aggression will be another
concern for the Heels.
But Roy Williams has his own fearless and physical
perimeter presence in Joel Berry II, who will be expected to create the sort of
tone Carolina needs to survive the type of Philly street fight that the Cats
prefer.
Without Berry, we could envision the Heels backing away from some
of the Nova intensity, but as long as Berry is on the floor, the Cats are not going
to win their normal intimidation game on the perimeter.
The snarling Nova defense, which also has some added length on the
perimeter with valued subs 6-8 Donald Reynolds and 6-7 Mikal Bridges,
figures to be the greatest challenge the Heels have faced in the Dance, but
Carolina has dealt with all sorts of sticky foes on the stop end this season, and
has rarely been slowed. And unlike Oklahoma, the Heel Gs can create off of
the dribble, as UNC’s 18 assists pg (ranks fourth nationally) confirms its
superiority as a passing team. Wright’s perimeter defenders would also like to
get back and “dig” on the Tar Heel bigs when UNC gets its touches in the paint,
but any overplaying of the Carolina Gs might limit Nova’s ability to do so, as well
as limiting the entry-pass lanes.
Carolina’s pro-style offense, with its NBA-like size on the blocks, loves to
run but also operates efficiently in halfcourt, even if the Heels (only 32% from
beyond the arc) don’t always connect on their triples. But they are a deadly
intermediate-range shooting team, with 6-9 Brice Johnson very comfy floating
out as far as 15 feet, while truck-sized 6-9, 265-lb. Kennedy Meeks and
rugged 6-9, 230-lb. Isaiah Hicks camp out on the low blocks.
Carolina also ranks seventh nationally in offensive rebounds (better than
14 pg), which is going to put a lot of pressure on the Nova defense, especially
the much-improved 6-11 Ochefu, whose task might be complicated further if
he is at all slowed by the twisted ankle he suffered late in Saturday’s win. And
if Ochefu is compromised at all, he might be limited in his chase of Carolina’s
Brice Johnson (20 ppg in the Dance), whose exceptional quickness and ability
to float to intermediate range presents an extra challenge.
In conclusion, we do not believe this will look at all like Nova’s recent games
vs. Miami or Oklahoma, as UNC owns the most-refined offense in college
hoops, with its multi-dimensional Gs Berry II and Marcus Paige not likely to be
thrown off course by the Cat defenders as was Oklahoma’s backcourt. Nova
has yet to face a foe with
this sort of length and firepower, and the Cats will
be at risk if they try to accelerate the tempo vs. a Heel team (83 ppg)
effortlessly scoring into the 80s in the Dance. Three-balls don’t even have to
fall for the Heels, but when they do as when Paige hit six of them vs. Indiana,
not even the Nova defense is going to have an answer. Carolina has also
been dismantling a succession of quality teams (Providence, Indiana, Notre
Dame, Syracuse) by mid-to-high teen margins, a run every bit as impressive
as the recent Wildcat exploits.
Does Nova have a chance? Absolutely. We’ve seen the Wildcats do this
before, overcoming even greater odds...
.remember, we had been publishing TGS for almost 30 years when the Massimino Cats pulled their 1985 title
game upset over Patrick Ewing’s Georgetown. We just think this Carolina
edition has too many ways to score, and is also peaking at the right time. It
might take another perfect game from Nova to upend the Tar Heel machine.
TGS
SCORE FORECAST: NORTH CAROLINA 81 - Villanova 74
PAGE 8
THE
GOLD
SHEET
MONDAY, APRIL 4
NCAA TITLE GAME
at NRG Stadium, Houston We (and many of our longtime readers) have seen a lot of basketball over the years. So forgive us
if comparisons to past teams and games come to mind every year during the
Big Dance. Case in point was Villanova’s eye-opening 95-51 thrashing of
Oklahoma in Saturday’s Final Four semifinal. Before the game was complete,
we had messages from Philly-based oldtimers who were comparing that
result to the 1971 East Regional final, when Jack Kraft’s Nova, featuring
Howard Porter, would bury Big Five rival Penn by an unexpected similar
scoreline (90-47) in the Elite Eight. Of course, others (us included) were
recalling the Wildcats’ memorable 1985 title game shocker over Georgetown
when Rollie Massimino’s Wildcats would shoot an astounding 78% from the
floor. For a while vs. the Sooners on Saturday, the Big Five entry appeared as
if it might match the exploits of its predecessors featuring Eddie Pinckney,
Harold Jensen, and others from 31 years ago in Lexington before ending up
“only” 71.4% with their FG attempts vs. OU.
Indeed, that Saturday rout was historic, as there had never been such a
one-sided result in a Final Four. In
Bob Beamon-at-Mexico City 1968-like
fashion
, that 44-point margin smashed the previous Final Four blowout high of
36 points, set by Princeton in a consolation-game win over Wichita State in
1965 at Portland when Bill Bradley would score a tourney-record 58 points. It
was also a a semifinal-high 34 points, besting Ed Jucker’s Cincinnati team that
throttled a Slats Gill-coached Oregon State featuring Mel Counts in the 1963
event at Louisville, the night before the Bearcats would be denied a third
straight title in an OT thriller vs. Loyola-Chicago, chronicled on these pages in
the past, and Magic Johnson-led Michigan State’s 101-67 romp past Ivy
League Penn at the 1979 Final Four at Salt Lake City.
(Yes, the NCAA used to
hold Final Fours in places such as Salt Lake City and Albuquerque!)
Such perfection as demonstrated by Jay Wright’s team on Saturday has
become almost commonplace for the current Nova that has pitched four near-
perfect games in a row, beginning with a second-round demolition of Iowa
.
To
paraphrase the late, great race caller Chic Anderson from Secretariat’s 1973
Belmont Stakes,
“Villanova is moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE!”
But the question for Monday night is how much different a challenge North
Carolina presents than the Hawkeyes, Miami, Kansas, and Oklahoma squads
that have been brushed aside (all easily, save the Jayhawks) in the Cats’
recent surge.
We suggest that it’s plenty different, though the Wildcats rate
better than a puncher’s chance vs. the Tar Heels
.
Nova’s starting five (Hart, Arcidiacono, Jenkins, Ochefu, and Brunson) has
been spectacular in recent weeks, as their collective aggression has totally
unnerved recent foes, especially Miami and Oklahoma. With each missed OU
three-ball on Saturday, the Cats continued to pile on the pressure, taking
almost everything away from the guard-oriented Sooners, and since OU’s
bigs do not score, the game got out of hand. We are also no longer believing
Nova is too small, as the emergence of 6-11 Daniel Ochefu and the ability to
stifle a big Kansas team in the Elite Eight would confirm. Moreover, the Cats
have been almost flawless on attack, converting close to 60% of their FG tries
in the Dance, with few empty trips on Saturday when scoring almost at will
every time the ball got into the paint vs. OU, and for good measure connecting
on 61% of their triples against the Sooners.
Whew!
That sort of success, however, is not likely to recur vs. the Tar
Heels, longer and taller than any foe (Kansas included) that Nova has
had to deal with thus far.
The ability of Arcidiacono and Hart to careen into
the paint and make positive things happen on the attack end is going to be
considerably tougher vs. the Carolina bigs than Oklahoma’s resistance on
Saturday.
If that element is taken away, the entire Nova offensive mechanism
risks breaking down, and Cats are going to have to be red-hot from outside,
of which they are capable, but will have to replicate their recent efforts.
Matching the off-the-charts Nova intensity and aggression will be another
concern for the Heels.
But Roy Williams has his own fearless and physical
perimeter presence in Joel Berry II, who will be expected to create the sort of
tone Carolina needs to survive the type of Philly street fight that the Cats
prefer.
Without Berry, we could envision the Heels backing away from some
of the Nova intensity, but as long as Berry is on the floor, the Cats are not going
to win their normal intimidation game on the perimeter.
The snarling Nova defense, which also has some added length on the
perimeter with valued subs 6-8 Donald Reynolds and 6-7 Mikal Bridges,
figures to be the greatest challenge the Heels have faced in the Dance, but
Carolina has dealt with all sorts of sticky foes on the stop end this season, and
has rarely been slowed. And unlike Oklahoma, the Heel Gs can create off of
the dribble, as UNC’s 18 assists pg (ranks fourth nationally) confirms its
superiority as a passing team. Wright’s perimeter defenders would also like to
get back and “dig” on the Tar Heel bigs when UNC gets its touches in the paint,
but any overplaying of the Carolina Gs might limit Nova’s ability to do so, as well
as limiting the entry-pass lanes.
Carolina’s pro-style offense, with its NBA-like size on the blocks, loves to
run but also operates efficiently in halfcourt, even if the Heels (only 32% from
beyond the arc) don’t always connect on their triples. But they are a deadly
intermediate-range shooting team, with 6-9 Brice Johnson very comfy floating
out as far as 15 feet, while truck-sized 6-9, 265-lb. Kennedy Meeks and
rugged 6-9, 230-lb. Isaiah Hicks camp out on the low blocks.
Carolina also ranks seventh nationally in offensive rebounds (better than
14 pg), which is going to put a lot of pressure on the Nova defense, especially
the much-improved 6-11 Ochefu, whose task might be complicated further if
he is at all slowed by the twisted ankle he suffered late in Saturday’s win. And
if Ochefu is compromised at all, he might be limited in his chase of Carolina’s
Brice Johnson (20 ppg in the Dance), whose exceptional quickness and ability
to float to intermediate range presents an extra challenge.
In conclusion, we do not believe this will look at all like Nova’s recent games
vs. Miami or Oklahoma, as UNC owns the most-refined offense in college
hoops, with its multi-dimensional Gs Berry II and Marcus Paige not likely to be
thrown off course by the Cat defenders as was Oklahoma’s backcourt. Nova
has yet to face a foe with
this sort of length and firepower, and the Cats will
be at risk if they try to accelerate the tempo vs. a Heel team (83 ppg)
effortlessly scoring into the 80s in the Dance. Three-balls don’t even have to
fall for the Heels, but when they do as when Paige hit six of them vs. Indiana,
not even the Nova defense is going to have an answer. Carolina has also
been dismantling a succession of quality teams (Providence, Indiana, Notre
Dame, Syracuse) by mid-to-high teen margins, a run every bit as impressive
as the recent Wildcat exploits.
Does Nova have a chance? Absolutely. We’ve seen the Wildcats do this
before, overcoming even greater odds...
.remember, we had been publishing TGS for almost 30 years when the Massimino Cats pulled their 1985 title
game upset over Patrick Ewing’s Georgetown. We just think this Carolina
edition has too many ways to score, and is also peaking at the right time. It
might take another perfect game from Nova to upend the Tar Heel machine.
TGS
SCORE FORECAST: NORTH CAROLINA 81 - Villanova 74
