Dr. Bob
Previously released:
2-Star Best Bet - (110) **Seattle (+7 EV) at +7 -110 or better, 1-Star to +6
1-Star Best Bet - (114) *Under (41) - NY Jets vs Miami Under 41 -120 or better (Strong Opinion Under 40.5)
2-Star Best Bet - (255) **New England (-3 -120) at -3.5 or better, 1-Star at -4
1-Star Best Bet - (274) *Under (45 -115) - Chicago vs Minnesota Under 44
Strong Opinion - (256) Under (34.5) New England at NY Giants Under 34 or more
2-Star Best Bet - **SEATTLE (+7 Even) over San Francisco
· Geno Smith's triceps contusion is painful, but it typically doesn't result in a performance hit and the Seahawks will start him under center on Thanksgiving night.
· Geno is averaging 24% more yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush than the blitz this season and Smith will have a favorable matchup as the 49ers have an 80.1% standard pass rush rate (3rd-highest).
· San Francisco traded for edge defender Chase Young because they wanted to get pressure sending just four pass rushers and he has a sack in both his games with the 49ers while Nick Bosa ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency on the other edge. However, the pair will be limited in this game.
· Seahawks LT Charles Cross did not allow a single pressure last week against the Rams and this will likely be the first game since week 1 that Seattle's offensive line will have both starting tackles on the field. Abraham Lucas and Charles Cross are combining to allow a 6.0% pressure rate since the start of the 2022 season when they both entered the league. The Seahawks' backup tackles combined to surrender an 11.7% pressure rate this year.
· Geno Smith will have enough clean pockets to look downfield for DK Metcalf, whose 19 targets with at least 20 air yards rank 7th among wide receivers. San Francisco All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga tore his ACL and backup S Ji’Ayir Brown will not be able to limit explosive passes.
· Seattle's defensive line will wreak havoc at home against the current state of the 49ers offensive line. LG Aaron Banks is dealing with a toe injury and RG Spencer Burford has knee issues. Burford ranks 45th in pass blocking efficiency out of 47 qualifying guards even if he is able to suit up. Seahawks interior defenders Leonard Williams and Jarren Reed have combined for 57 pressures and should put pressure on Brock Purdy from the middle of the line.
· San Francisco RT Colton McKivitz ranks 10th-worst in pass blocking efficiency, and he will struggle across from edge rusher Boye Mafe, who has 7.0 sacks (15th).
· Seattle CB Tariq Woolen is conceding 0.84 yards per cover snap (20th) and he will contain Brandon Aijuk, who is leading all wide receivers with 0.82 EPA/target.
· Our model favors the 49ers by just 2.6 points, with a predicted total of 45.1 points and the Niners apply to a 21-72-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation that plays against road favorites of more than 3 points that have an average scoring margin of more than +10 points and are coming off a win of more than 10 points.
Seattle is a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 -110 or better and 1-Star down to +6 points.
1-Star Best Bet - *Under (41) - Miami (-9.5) vs NY JETS
· The Jets benched Zach Wilson and are starting Tim Boyle this week. The spread in this game moved 2.5 points on the news but oddly the total didn’t move.
· Tim Boyle has the worst college credentials of any NFL quarterback I’ve ever seen. In 3 seasons at Connecticut he could never hold the starting job and completed just 48% of his passes for 4.5 yards per attempt and a 4.7% interception range. Boyle moved on to play at Eastern Kentucky in 2017 and led his team to a glorious 4-7 record while averaging just 6.2 yards per pass play against horrible competition – teams that would allow 7.8 yppp to an average FBS level quarterback.
· I am confident that Boyle will be even worse than Wilson was, but we are not making an adjustment to New York's offense because this is a coach’s decision, and the policy is to trust the coaching staff in situations like this. We would've bet under with Zach Wilson under center, but I think the Jets’ offense could be even worse.
· Wilson is averaging 4.9 yppp for his career compared to Boyle's 4.8 yppp since taking his first snaps in 2019.
· Jets tackle Mekhi Becton is likely out with an ankle sprain. LG Laken Tomlinson is the only remaining starter on New York's offensive line from week 1 and he ranks 45th in pass-blocking efficiency out of 46 qualifying guards. Jets backup rookie tackle Carter Warren surrendered 5 pressures last week (3rd-most) filling in for Becton.
· Boyle will not have many clean pockets on Friday behind this offensive line as Miami's defense has a 39.7% pressure rate (6th).
· The Dolphins are allowing -0.12 EPA/dropback with Pro Bowl CB Jalen Ramsey on the field since week 9 (7th) and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's increased confidence in his secondary has made the run defense better as well. Miami's defense has conceded a 30.6% rush success rate in the last three games (3rd) and New York's offense will be completely out of options in this game.
· Jets RB Breece Hall 0.32 EPA/target (5th) but he will be limited as the Dolphins are allowing just a 33% pass success rate to running backs (3rd).
· Miami's offense will have similar challenges as New York this week with a backup on the offensive line and no options in the screen game to slow down the pass rush. The Dolphins are targeting running backs on 23.1% of passes (6th-most) but the Jets are conceding a 36% pass success rate to running backs (7th).
· Miami starting guard Isaiah Wynn ranked 2nd in pass-blocking efficiency before going out in week 7 with a quad injury and he is worth a half point by our metrics. New York interior defenders Quinnen Williams and Quinton Jefferson have combined for 60 pressures and Tua Tagovailoa will not have many clean pockets to throw from.
· Miami WR Tyreek Hill is averaging 0.57 EPA/target (3rd) and WR Jaylen Waddle has a 58% success rate (16th) but the pair will be limited against the Jets secondary. Cornerback DJ Reed is conceding 0.58 yards per cover snap (6th) and cornerback Sauce Gardner is allowing 0.60 yards per cover snap (8th).
· Our model favors the Dolphins by 9.7 points, with a predicted total of 38.6 points.
The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 41 -120 odds or better (Strong Opinion Under 40.5).
2-Star Best Bet - **New England (-3 -120) over NY GIANTS
Strong Opinion - Under (34.5)
· Mac Jones was asked if he was starting on Wednesday and he responded “Hope so. That’s the plan, I think.” The Patriots will keep it simple for whoever is under center this week designing the gameplan around running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott.
· New England's rushing offense has a 41.7% success rate (9th) and New York's defense ranks 25th in EPA/rush allowed.
· The Patriots are targeting running backs on 22.9% of passes (7th-most) and the screen game should be effective for Jones, as the Giants are surrendering a 47% pass success rate to running backs (29th).
· New England left tackle Trent Brown should be back on the field this week after missing the Germany game and he will limit edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, who had 8 pressures last week.
· Tommy DeVito has been holding onto the ball too long since college and he has a 21.6% sack rate this season. DeVito has averaged only 3.9 yards per pass play and will be thoroughly shut down by Bill Belichick's scheme.
· The Patriots have a 45.1% blitz rate (4th-highest) and a 38.2% man-coverage rate (4th-highest). The Giants' yards per attempt versus the blitz is just 79% of their yards per attempt against a standard pass rush this season (31st) and New York's yards per attempt versus man coverage is also only 79% of their yards per attempt against zone (26th).
· Giants TE Darren Waller was averaging 1.54 yards per route run (7th) but he will remain out this week.
· New York C John Michael Schmitz ranks 29th in pass blocking efficiency out of 31 qualifying centers and he will struggle across from interior defender Christian Barmore, who has 26 pressures (23rd).
· Saquon Barkley averaged a season-high 5.9 yards per carry last week, but he will not be able to shoulder some of the load off of DeVito as New England's defense is conceding a 33.1% rush success rate (2nd).
· Our model favors the Patriots by 5.3 points, with a predicted total of 30.3 points. In addition to the line value, the matchups are significant in favor of New England and the Giants apply to a 31-84-1 ATS letdown situation that plays against teams coming off a win as a 5-point dog or more against a division opponent. That win over the Commanders was largely due to a +6 turnover margin, which would normally lead to a 24-point win – all else being equal (NYG was outgained by 112 yards).
New England is a 2-Star Best Bet at -3.5 or less and 1-Star at -4. The Under is a Strong Opinion at 34 points or more.
1-Star Best Bet - (274) *Under (45 -115) - Chicago vs Minnesota Under 44
Waiting on some injury updates to complete the matchup analysis of this game. I'll have the write-up to you on Sunday afternoon or Monday. The model predicts just 40.7 total points.
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