PLAYBOOK NCAA TUE-THU GAMES
Eastern Michigan over BUFFALO by 3
The Ypsilanti Eagles escaped by the skin of their teeth in a 30-27 Last Home Game win over pesky Akron last Tuesday. Now at 5-6, a win here makes them bowl eligible and with it they make the NOW OR NEVER list of teams in need of a win this final week (see page 4). The problem tonight is they are also the ONLY FBS team that has yet to outgain an opponent this season. In fact, you can call them the Pittsburgh Steelers of the college football world if you wish. You need to go back to 2011 to find the last time they actually out-yarded the Bulls. Even so, we’re still trying to figure out why this 3-8 Buffalo squad is laying a TD here. We realize Buffy has gone 3-0 SUATS in the previous three series meetings, including last year’s 50-31 blowout of EMU, and that the Eagles are winless SU on the road this year. Buffalo is also 7-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in Last Home Games, but only 0-4-1 ATS as a favorite when coming off a loss and facing a foe with a better record. That fits snugly with Eastern’s 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS record of late in MAC road games in which they own the better ledger. In addition, the Bulls are just 2-9 ATS when coming off a SUATS loss (fell at Miami Ohio last week), while the EMUs are 11-2 ATS as a dog after dressing up as a favorite. If the Eagles bag a bowl bid and square their conference record at .500 with a win here, maybe the university will consider ditching their depressing gray homefield for a green one. Just a thought.
WESTERN MICHIGAN over Bowling Green by 4
Bowling Green enters this matchup off a one-point nip and tuck loss to conference bear Toledo, after popping the champagne with a bowl eligible clinching win the prior week. Heck, the BeeGees don’t even have to show up for this one since they’ve already got six wins tucked away. That’s not the case for the forlorn Broncos, who will miss out on post-season play for the second year in a row and must win here if they want first-year head coach Lance Taylor to equal last year’s 5-7 finish under Tim Lester. Yes, it’s been a disappointing season in Kalamazoo but when it comes to this series, WMU stands 10-1 SU and 7-1 ATS when Bowling Green owns a sub .750-win percentage. Western has also got an ‘accounts payable’ to settle with BGSU after last year’s 13-9 loss to the Falcons, one of two games where the Broncos were held to single digits scoring. With little more than pride to play for in front of the home folks, we look for the wild horses to kick up their heels one last time tonight.
Ole Miss over MISSISSIPPI STATE by 14
It’s a fact that the loser of tonight’s annual rivalry clash will walk off the field with egg on their face, and we don’t think it’s going to be Ole Miss. While it has been a typical Lane Kiffin season where his team beats up on the bad teams, ekes out close wins over the middle-rung squads and gets flattened in games against the SEC elite, the Rebels’ two losses to Alabama and Georgia have completely overshadowed what has been a successful ride down the rails for the Lane Train, as a win tonight gives Mississippi its second 10-win season under Kiffin. It will also secure second-place in the SEC West and a ticket to a better bowl than LSU, who the Rebels beat at the end of September. We don’t know what sort of mutiny transpired at Mississippi State in the past few weeks, but the upheaval saw first-year head coach Zach Arnett get the boot before the end of the season. With pink slips still being issued, we can’t see any added motivation for MSU here, especially with the Rebs holding a revenge card from a 24-22 home loss to the Bulldogs last season. The Well-Oiled Machine agrees, noting that Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS as a home dog of 7 or more points of late, compared to Kiffin’s 4-0 ATS march as a road favorite in the same price range. We all know things can get weird when two teams are playing for an Egg Bowl trophy that looks suspiciously like a football, but we’ll count on Hail State’s 4-10 ATS record versus .500 or greater conference foes to show us the way to the pay window. All aboard!
Tuesday, November 21
Eastern Michigan over BUFFALO by 3
The Ypsilanti Eagles escaped by the skin of their teeth in a 30-27 Last Home Game win over pesky Akron last Tuesday. Now at 5-6, a win here makes them bowl eligible and with it they make the NOW OR NEVER list of teams in need of a win this final week (see page 4). The problem tonight is they are also the ONLY FBS team that has yet to outgain an opponent this season. In fact, you can call them the Pittsburgh Steelers of the college football world if you wish. You need to go back to 2011 to find the last time they actually out-yarded the Bulls. Even so, we’re still trying to figure out why this 3-8 Buffalo squad is laying a TD here. We realize Buffy has gone 3-0 SUATS in the previous three series meetings, including last year’s 50-31 blowout of EMU, and that the Eagles are winless SU on the road this year. Buffalo is also 7-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in Last Home Games, but only 0-4-1 ATS as a favorite when coming off a loss and facing a foe with a better record. That fits snugly with Eastern’s 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS record of late in MAC road games in which they own the better ledger. In addition, the Bulls are just 2-9 ATS when coming off a SUATS loss (fell at Miami Ohio last week), while the EMUs are 11-2 ATS as a dog after dressing up as a favorite. If the Eagles bag a bowl bid and square their conference record at .500 with a win here, maybe the university will consider ditching their depressing gray homefield for a green one. Just a thought.
WESTERN MICHIGAN over Bowling Green by 4
Bowling Green enters this matchup off a one-point nip and tuck loss to conference bear Toledo, after popping the champagne with a bowl eligible clinching win the prior week. Heck, the BeeGees don’t even have to show up for this one since they’ve already got six wins tucked away. That’s not the case for the forlorn Broncos, who will miss out on post-season play for the second year in a row and must win here if they want first-year head coach Lance Taylor to equal last year’s 5-7 finish under Tim Lester. Yes, it’s been a disappointing season in Kalamazoo but when it comes to this series, WMU stands 10-1 SU and 7-1 ATS when Bowling Green owns a sub .750-win percentage. Western has also got an ‘accounts payable’ to settle with BGSU after last year’s 13-9 loss to the Falcons, one of two games where the Broncos were held to single digits scoring. With little more than pride to play for in front of the home folks, we look for the wild horses to kick up their heels one last time tonight.
Thursday, November 23
Ole Miss over MISSISSIPPI STATE by 14
It’s a fact that the loser of tonight’s annual rivalry clash will walk off the field with egg on their face, and we don’t think it’s going to be Ole Miss. While it has been a typical Lane Kiffin season where his team beats up on the bad teams, ekes out close wins over the middle-rung squads and gets flattened in games against the SEC elite, the Rebels’ two losses to Alabama and Georgia have completely overshadowed what has been a successful ride down the rails for the Lane Train, as a win tonight gives Mississippi its second 10-win season under Kiffin. It will also secure second-place in the SEC West and a ticket to a better bowl than LSU, who the Rebels beat at the end of September. We don’t know what sort of mutiny transpired at Mississippi State in the past few weeks, but the upheaval saw first-year head coach Zach Arnett get the boot before the end of the season. With pink slips still being issued, we can’t see any added motivation for MSU here, especially with the Rebs holding a revenge card from a 24-22 home loss to the Bulldogs last season. The Well-Oiled Machine agrees, noting that Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS as a home dog of 7 or more points of late, compared to Kiffin’s 4-0 ATS march as a road favorite in the same price range. We all know things can get weird when two teams are playing for an Egg Bowl trophy that looks suspiciously like a football, but we’ll count on Hail State’s 4-10 ATS record versus .500 or greater conference foes to show us the way to the pay window. All aboard!
