Newsletters 12/15-12/25

[Dubya]

What bettors need to know: Emerald Bowl
By VICTOR RYAN

Miami vs. California (-8, 50)

Against The Spread

Miami is 5-6 ATS, which includes three straight losses vs. the line to close the season.
Cal is 9-3 ATS, including a perfect 7-0 record vs. the line at home (this game is being played just across the San Francisco bay from Berkeley). The over is 8-2-1 in Cal’s last 11 non-conference games.

Line Moves

Cal opened as a 5.5-point favorite and the line has since moved to Cal -7.5. The total has been holding at 49.5 or 50. The over is a combined 14-9 with these two teams.

The Situation

Miami took a step forward this season under second-year coach Randy Shannon after going 5-7 and failing to reach a bowl game in 2007. But the ‘Canes did struggle down the stretch. They controlled their own conference destiny entering the season’s final two weeks and responded with back-to-back losses, including as a 2-point favorite at North Carolina State to close the regular season. Meanwhile, Cal lost all Pac-10 hope with November losses to Southern Cal and Oregon State. Cal did beat two teams currently ranked in the top-25 (Oregon and Michigan State) and appear to be a solid favorite in this one.

Key Matchup

It figures to be between Cal star running back Jahvid Best and a Miami defense that struggled mightily down the stretch. The ‘Canes gave up a combined 691 rushing yards in two losses to close the season. Best, meanwhile, ran for 1394 yards in the regular season and topped the nation at eight yards per carry. He also set a school record with 311 yards rushing against Washington. If the ‘Canes can’t control Best they could be in for a long night.

Head to Head

Cal and Miami haven’t played since a 52-24 Hurricanes win in 1990. The Bears have only beaten Miami once in three all-time meetings, 9-7, on the road in 1964.

Bowl History

The ‘Canes had been to nine straight bowl games before having that streak snapped with a 5-7 campaign last year. Cal is making its sixth straight bowl appearance. The Bears have won their last three bowl games, including vs. Air Force 42-36 in the Armed Forces Bowl last year.

 

[Dubya]

What bettors need to know: Champs Sports Bowl
By MILLER GROUP

Wisconsin vs. Florida State, December 27th, 4:30 pm et on ESPN

Line movement

The Seminoles have held fairly steady at –5 while the total has been bet down slightly to 52 from 53.

Key injuries

The biggest blow the Badgers suffered all season was the loss of tight end Travis Beckum. He had gotten off to a slow start before breaking his leg back on October 25, but there’s no questioning his importance to this offense after hauling in 75 catches and six touchdowns a year ago.

Florida State lost cornerback Darius McClure for the season in mid-November but is expected to have wide receiver Preston Parker back from an ankle injury.

We’re going streaking

This will be the Seminoles 27th consecutive Bowl appearance, the longest streak in the nation thanks to Michigan’s no-show here in 2008.

The Badgers second home

Wisconsin is going bowling in the state of Florida for the fifth consecutive year. It’s probably not the destination they were hoping for after being ranked as high as ninth in the nation earlier in the season. They were expected to contend for the Big Ten title thanks to a boatload of returning talent.

Tough Hill to climb

If the Badgers are going to win this game, it will be on the back, or should I say, legs of running back P.J. Hill. The QB situation has been a mess all season long with Allan Evridge and Dustin Sherer both struggling, throwing 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions combined. Hill was the bright spot, running for over 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Ponder this

The Seminoles offense finally shook off the cobwebs and turned in a strong season, thanks in large part to dual-threat QB Christian Ponder. The sophomore threw for 12 touchdowns and ran for four more, helping put up at least 28 points in eight games. The Noles had done so just eight times in the previous two seasons combined.

 

[Dubya]

What bettors need to know: Meineke Car Care Bowl
By ALEX SMART

West Virginia vs. North Carolina (pick ‘em, 45)

Line movement

Oddsmakers opened the Meineke Car Care Bowl at a pick ‘em, with the total coming in at 44. The total has since risen to 45, while the line has held steady at a pick ‘em at most sportsbooks.

Head-to-head

This is the second meeting between these teams since 1997. North Carolina beat the Mountaineers in ’97, 20-13, narrowly covering the 6.5-point spread.

On top of Bowl Mountain

West Virginia has won its last three bowl appearances, including last season’s 48-28 upset victory over the Oklahoma Sooners in the Fiesta Bowl. The Mountaineers are 2-1 ATS during that stretch, but the non-BCS bowl games have been a nightmare for them. WVU bettors have dropped four straight ATS, with the average defeat coming by 14.5 points.

Tar Heel rising

North Carolina will be looking for its first bowl victory since 2001 when it takes on the Mountaineers. In their only other bowl appearance since ’01, the Tar Heels lost 37-24 as 2.5-point favorites against Boston College.

Yates back on track

Before he suffered an injury, Carolina QB Tyler Yates was the key to the offense. He averaged 207.7 yards per game through the air and threw six touchdowns against just one interception. The offense averaged 32 points per game in that stretch.

Since coming back from injury, things haven’t been nearly as good. The Tar Heels have only scored 38 points in his two games back and Yates has gone just 25-of-41 for 306 yards with three touchdowns and two picks.

Running off course

With an offense featuring QB Pat White and RB Noel Devine, the Mountaineers were slated to be one of the most explosive offenses in the NCAA. They did have the 12th best rushing attack in the nation at 217.4 yards per game, but as a whole, the offense only ranked 65th in yards per game (353.1) and 75th in points per game (24.0).

White and Devine combined to tote the rock 362 times for 2,154 yards, but only scored a total of 10 touchdowns. White rushed for 14 scores last season by himself and 18 in his junior season.

White hot bowls

No one has been able to stop the WVU signal caller in a bowl game since he stepped on the Morgantown campus. White has racked up an average of 266.3 yards per game and six touchdowns without throwing an interception in three bowl games. The Mountaineers averaged 41.3 points in those games.

 

[Dubya]

Champs Sports Bowl
By Judd Hall

The Seminoles and Badgers expected to have seasons this year that would put them back at the top of the college football rankings. Instead, they find one another at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida for a date in the Champs Sports Bowl.

Wisconsin felt like it was building up to something big this year after playing well in a 21-17 defeat to the Volunteers in last season’s Outback Bowl. After all, they would be returning 15 starters from a squad that went 9-4 in 2007.

Bret Bielema’s strategy is no secret in that he wants to run the ball with a stud like redshirt junior P.J. Hill in the backfield and a starting offensive line that averages 316.2 pounds per man along with three seniors. Statistically, that gameplan has worked out for Wisky as they rank 14th in the nation with 212.0 yards per game on the ground. The Badgers even found a capable rusher in waiting this season with redshirt freshman John Clay, who ran for 845 yards and nine touchdowns on 144 carries.

Unfortunately for the Badgers, they couldn’t run it every play…No, Wisconsin had to mix in a few pass plays with senior transfer Allan Evridge from Kansas State. Evridge proved he couldn’t make the plays when they counted by getting picked off late in matches against the Wolverines and Buckeyes where Wisky could have either put the game away or went back out ahead. Dustin Sherer eventually took over under center and managed to do well enough by completing 54.3 percent of his passes for 1,257 yards with just as many touchdowns as he had interceptions (five).

What that inconsistency in the passing game created did was help bring what was once expected to be a team poised to maybe make the Rose Bowl, fall to 7-5 in 2008. As mediocre as that record is, VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Scott Rickenbach still buys into them to a point. “I do think the Badgers are better than you would think based on the 7-5 record they have this season.” Rickenbach concludes, “However, I do not think that they match up very well with Florida State…especially against the run”

Rickenbach makes a valid point as the Seminoles are one of the best defensive programs in the country. Florida State’s d-unit has allowed 291.8 YPG this season, which ranks them 14th national in total defense. And the ‘Noles have the 33rd ranked rush defense, surrendering 126.8 YPG on the ground. While you might think that is a lot of yardage, consider the fact that FSU is 2nd in the nation with an average of 8.6 tackles for loss per game in 2008.

While Florida State is more than capable to snuff out the opposition, its offense doesn’t exactly strike fear. Bobby Bowden’s Seminoles are averaging 368.7 YPG on the attack this year…good enough to be 55th in the country. While the running (182.8) and passing (185.8) games are about equal, the ‘Noles rely more on the ground game to help move them along. So for FSU to make things happen, they’ll need a solid effort out of Antone Smith. The senior from Pahokee, Florida leads the program with 753 yards and 14 touchdowns on 161 carries this season.

If Smith can’t make any headway via the ground game, then Christian Ponder will be put to task. Ponder may have thrown more interceptions (13) than he had touchdowns (12), but he still was named the team’s offensive MVP this year. Partly because of the promise he showed in games like he had against the Terrapins on Nov. 22 in which he completed 19 of 24 passes for 143 and a score. But this sophomore has shown to wilt under pressure as evidenced by his nailing just five of 14 passes for 60 yards and two picks in a monsoon against the Gators in Tallahassee to close out the regular season.

The ‘Noles will have some work cut out for them this Saturday against a Badgers’ defensive unit that is 32nd in the nation by giving up 322.3 YPG. While those numbers look good, they never played up to the level of the better squads in the Big Ten this season. In the last four defeats Wisconsin had this year (Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa and Michigan State), they gave up an average of 347.8 YPG and 32.8 points per game as well.

Most betting shops have listed the Seminoles as five-point favorites with a total that is holding steady at 52. Bettors can take Wisconsin to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).

Normally you’d look at history between teams to get an idea of how to bet. Well, that’s not happening here as this is the first meeting between Florida State and the Badgers.

As far as favorites go in the history of the Champs Sports Bowl itself, they’ve gone 10-7 straight up and 8-9 against the spread since the game was known as the Blockbuster Bowl in 1990. While the “chalk” might look like a good play here, keep in mind that they have posted an 0-3 mark in their last games ATS.

The Seminoles are good when tabbed as favorite as noted by an 11-5 SU record. Yet, the gamblers are flipping a coin when it comes to them covering the number by going 8-8 ATS.

Wisconsin hasn’t fared well against non-conference opponents when installed as an underdog with a SU record of 3-4. Yet they’ve cashed in nicely as we can see by them going 5-2 ATS since 2000.

You can catch this game on ESPN at 4:30 p.m. EST.

 

[Dubya]

Meineke Car Care Bowl
By Brad Young

West Virginia and North Carolina will be entering a bit of unchartered territory when the two schools collide in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. The Mountaineers have played in five consecutive New Year’s Day bowl games until this year, while the Tar Heels haven’t reached a bowl game since 2004.

Both schools appeared headed to bigger contests and a possible Orange Bowl matchup before faltering down the stretch. West Virginia (8-4 straight up, 4-7 against the spread) was poised to take the Big East title before splitting its last four games, while North Carolina (8-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) suffered tough setbacks to Maryland and North Carolina State.

“West Virginia is just 3-10 ATS its last 13 games versus Atlantic Coast Conference opponents,” said VegasInsider.com handicapper Mark Franco. “However the Mountaineers finished the regular season with the nation’s best red-zone defense, allowing scores on only 27-of-42 possessions opponents brought inside the 20-yard line.”

Caesars Palace installed West Virginia as a 1 ½-point ‘chalk’ over North Carolina, with the total set at 44 ½. The Tar Heels opened as a 1 ½-point favorite, while the total was listed at 46. ESPN will provide coverage of the Meineke Car Care Bowl beginning Saturday, December 27th at 1:00 p.m. ET from Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium.

West Virginia has alternated SU wins and losses its last five games after upending South Florida December 6 as a seven-point home ‘chalk,’ 13-7. The combined 20 points never seriously threatened the 47-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second straight contest.

Most of the key game stats were pretty equal except that the Mountaineers won the turnover battle (3-1). Quarterback Pat White completed 14-of-23 passes for 141 yards with a touchdown, while rushing 15 times for 40 yards.

North Carolina snapped a two-game losing skid by upending Duke November 29 as an eight-point road favorite, 28-20. The combined 48 points toppled the 43½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash the second consecutive contest.

“North Carolina is No. 43 among 119 major college teams in red-zone offense with 34 scores on 40 possessions,” noted Franco. “The Tar Heels have scored 22 touchdowns and kicked 12 field goals.”

Quarterback T.J. Yates was 15-of-19 passing for 190 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. Running back Shaun Draughn accounted for 29 carries for 110 yards and a score, while catching four passes for 28 yards and a touchdown.

West Virginia and North Carolina have not played each other in recent years.

“Something has to give in this matchup, West Virginia clearly has the advantage on defense and North Carolina has the offensive edge,” stated Franco. “I think this one plays out to a low-scoring affair.”

North Carolina wide receiver Brooks Foster (knee) is ‘probable’ against the Mountaineers, while tight end Zack Pianalto (leg) is ‘questionable.’

West Virginia center Mike Dent (neck) and linebacker Anthony Leonard (foot) are ‘questionable’ versus the Tar Heels.

Saturday’s forecast for Charlotte, North Carolina calls for partly cloudy skies and a 10 percent chance of precipitation, with a high of 54 degrees and a low of 44.

 

[Dubya]

2008 Meineke Car Care Bowl Preview
by Robert Ferringo

West Virginia vs. North Carolina
Conference Matchup: Big East vs. ACC
Date: 1 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 27
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.
Odds: 'Pick 'Em'; Total 46.5

A mild air of disappointment and missed opportunities hangs over the Meineke Car Care Bowl like the mid-winter clouds in the gray Carolina sky.

Roughly 12 months ago West Virginia was one game away from potentially playing for a national championship and North Carolina was 4-8 and wondering when they would manage to finally turn their program around. Now the two teams will square off on Saturday, Dec. 27 in Charlotte in a game that each team seems to have had to settle for.

West Virginia got off to a slow start in the Bill Stewart Era, taking an early beating at East Carolina and losing another three games by a combined 13 points. Their offense was ranked just 84th in the nation after Week 3 and Stewarts offense struggled to get going throughout most of the season. But the Mountaineers never mailed it in and won seven of their last nine games to salvage their season. Their defense improved to No. 34 in the country and their offense managed to do just enough to get the job done, scoring over 30 points in three of their last six games.

North Carolina has been somewhat of a surprise throughout this season. They won five of their first six games and were 8-2 in mid-November with a strong shot at a trip to the ACC Championship Game. However, they dropped two of their last three games and had to watch as teams that they beat throughout the year scored better bowl games. And while it's nice that they are playing their bowl game just a bus ride away there's a certain disappointment with not being able to hit some exotic locale to put a cap on the year.

So both teams are settling for the Meineke Bowl, which feels a bit like a used car for these clubs. But one team will win and one team will cash here and it's a tricky pick to figure out who and how that will all shake out.

North Carolina earned two blowout wins over Big East teams this year, rocking Rutgers, 44-12, and creaming Connecticut, 38-12. West Virginia split its two major nonconference games, dumping a tight one at Colorado but avalanching Auburn in Morgantown.

West Virginia has a decided experience edge. Their seniors are undefeated in bowl games, including upset wins on Georgia's home turf in 2006 and a blowout over Oklahoma last January. You know that Pat White wants to close out his career in style and that one of the nation's top offensive lines, with four senior starters, is going to come to play. Also, their defense actually finished in the Top 10 in points allowed (15.9) and may be good enough to hold down the young Tar Heels attack.

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However, the Mountaineers are just 3-10 ATS against the ACC and their bowl success came under the regime of Rich Rodriquez. North Carolina is clearly the more athletic team and should come out with more energy and enthusiasm because it is the first bowl game in the Butch Davis Era. Carolina's defense definitely has enough speed to keep up with the WVU spread and playing just a few miles from campus can't hurt either.

This game is going to be one of the few sellouts on the docket for this bowl season and should be an emotionally charged tilt for regional bragging rights. And no matter how the teams feel heading into this game - and both have reasons to be motivated and to be disappointed - once the pads start bashing this one is going to be less about "feelings" and more about dexterity and determination.

 

[Dubya]

2008 Emerald Bowl Preview
by T.O. Whenham

Miami (7-5) vs. Cal (8-4)
Conference Matchup: ACC vs. Pac-10
Date: Saturday, Dec. 28, 8:00 p.m.
Location: AT&T Park, San Francisco
Spread: Cal -7.5, total 50

You may as well just call this one a home game for Cal. The Bears have a 20-minute bus ride to get to the game, while the Hurricanes have to cross the country. Miami was 4-2 ATS on the road, though this is by far their longest trip. Cal was a perfect 7-0 straight up and ATS when they had their home crowd cheering for them as they will in this one.

The Emerald Bowl is one of the stranger bowl games since it's played in a baseball stadium. The new St. Petersburg Bowl at Tropicana Field is the only other bowl game played in a baseball-only stadium. The field causes some odd circumstances for the game - most notably, both teams share the same sideline. This is the seventh version of the Emerald Bowl, and the first for both of these teams.

Line Movement

The line opened at 6.5 and blew right through the key number of seven quickly. Public action has been heavily tilted towards the Bears, with more than 70 percent of bets on them. The line could keep moving up until kickoff. Both teams went over in the majority of their games, yet the total is dropping. It opened at 51.5, but can be found as low as 49.5.

Will Marve be there?

The status of redshirt freshman Robert Marve, Miami's starting QB, is up in the air. Reports are flying that his grades aren't good, and that they may keep him out of this game. He says that they are fine, but his status won't be known for certain for a while. On top of that, rumors of a transfer to another school, perhaps Florida, are running rampant. Even if Marve does play he might not be at his best through the distractions. It would be easy for bettors to overcompensate for the situation, though. This team is not centered around strong QB play, and Marve essentially platoons with Jacory Harris, so he won't make or break the team's fortunes. Marve is no Sam Bradford, either - he has nine TDs and 13 picks.

That's Your MVP? Really?

Miami has had a solid year, but they aren't the football factory that they were earlier in the decade. Need proof? At their recent awards banquet, the MVP award was given to Matt Bosher. He's the kicker. You can imagine how devoid of standout stars a team has to be in order for the kicker, the least respected position in sports, to get the nod.

Setting the right tone

Miami is not in a good place, having lost their last two. Cal's confidence will be running much higher - they have won their last two games by a combined 85-23. That stat needs a bit of a qualification, though - both games were at home, and their opponents - struggling Stanford and pathetic Washington - were outmatched. Of more concern, Washington is the only one of Cal's last four opponents that the Bears have outgained. Miami has been outgained in their last three as well, so neither team is a clear favorite to set the offensive tone.

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History

The teams have only played twice before, and Miami won both games in blowout fashion. Don't get too excited, though - the last game was in 1990, so a few things have changed since they saw each other. Cal is in their sixth consecutive bowl after a long bowl drought. They have won four of those five bowls during the stretch, including the last three. Miami is back in a bowl after ending a nine-year streak last year. They won seven of those nine bowls, though they were thoroughly humiliated in the Peach Bowl in 2005.

Trends of Note

Cal is 4-0 ATS the last four times they have been the favorites. They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 following a blowout win of more than 20 points. They are on a hot betting streak, with five covers in their last six.

Miami has not bounced back well. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss. They have covered eight of their last 11 when an underdog of between a field goal and 10 points.

Several trends point to an over. The Hurricanes have gone over in four of their last five after an ATS loss. Cal has gone over in their last four in neutral sites, in their last five bowl games, in eight of their last 11 non conference games, and in four of their last five as favorites.

 

[Dubya]

2008 Champs Sports Bowl Preview
by Matt Severance

Wisconsin (7-5) vs. Florida State (8-4)
Conference matchup: Big Ten vs. ACC
When: Dec. 27, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Location: Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando
Spread: FSU -5.5, total at 52

Line movement: There has been some fluctuation here, with the point spread moving about a half-point in either direction of five at most books. The late money has been toward FSU. The total has fallen between a half-point and a point since its opening.

Bowl history: This will be Wisconsin's first non-January bowl game since the 2003 Music City Bowl and first bowl game against a school from outside the SEC since 2002. The Badgers are 10-9 all-time in bowls, including losing the Outback Bowl to Tennessee last season. The Noles used to be major bowl regulars but haven't played in one of the big four since the end of the 2005 season (Orange Bowl loss to Penn State), with FSU's last two bowl stops being the Emerald in 2006 (win over UCLA) and Music City last year (loss to Kentucky). Florida State is 21-14-2 all-time in bowls and is making its 27th straight trip to one, the longest streak in the country.

How they got here: Frankly, the Badgers are a bit lucky to be here. They were 3-0 and ranked No. 9 in the country after winning at Fresno State but then lost their first four Big Ten games, including a choke job at Michigan. Wisconsin did win its final three games to get bowl-eligible, but the finale was a 36-35 overtime win over I-AA Cal Poly where the Badgers trailed by eight points with four minutes left. FSU's high point was a 30-20 win over Virginia Tech on Oct. 25 that got the Noles to 6-1 and in control of the ACC Atlantic. But Florida State alternated losses and wins, going 2-3, in the final five games, including being routed by Florida in the regular-season finale (that means FSU is due to win here, I guess).

Key trends: Oddsmakers tend to slight Wisconsin in bowls, as the Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their past four bowls as an underdog of 3.5-10 points. FSU is 6-0-1 in its past seven neutral-site games. The under is 4-1 in UW's past five bowl games, but the over is 4-0 in FSU's past four postseason games.

Key injuries: FSU's best all-around offensive threat, WR Preston Parker, is questionable for Saturday's game. Against Florida, Parker suffered an ankle injury and hasn't participated in a full practice since before the Gators game. Actually, Parker has had a very disappointing season, which started with him being suspended for the first two games. He has caught just 40 passes for 372 yards and two touchdowns this season. Still, he can present matchup problems as sort of a Percy Harvin-lite.

Wisconsin for sure won't have a key contributor as linebacker Jonathan Casillas underwent surgery last week for a lingering knee issue. Casillas is a three-year starter who twice earned honorable mention All-Big Ten honors. He ranks third on the team in tackles (62) with six tackles for loss and an interception.

Sackmaster: Watch out for FSU defensive end Everette Brown, who could single-handedly disrupt the Wisconsin passing game the rare times the Badgers throw. Brown ranks No. 3 nationally with 1.04 sacks per game. He has 12 ½ of the Seminoles' 36 sacks and 20 ½ of the team's 104 tackles for loss. He also had three or more sacks in three games.

UW has surrendered 26 sacks in 12 games (2.2 per game). In the six games since junior Dustin Sherer took over as the starting QB, opponents have recorded 17 sacks (2.8 per game).

Overview: Both teams are inconsistent throwing the ball (let's call that a wash), so the better running team should prevail. The Badgers led the Big Ten in averaging 212 rushing yards per game. Junior P.J. Hill is Wisconsin's main man, with team highs of 1,024 yards and 13 touchdowns as UW ranked 14th in the nation in rushing. The Badgers also have freshman John Clay, the heir apparent to Hill who had 845 yards on the ground and nine TDs.

FSU rushed for 2,194 yards this season, its most in six years, led by Antone Smith, who had 753 yards and 14 touchdowns. But that ground game slowed down in the second half of the season, averaging 149.7 yards in the final six games after averaging 216.0 rushing yards per game in its first six. Smith had only 121 total yards in the final three games as he dealt with an ankle injury.

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In stopping the run, Florida State ranks 34th, holding opponents to 126.8 yards per game, and Wisconsin ranks 43rd at 133.3 yards.

This is the first-ever meeting between the schools, and obviously Florida State will have a sizable crowd advantage. Wisconsin is too one-dimensional with its running game, and the fast FSU defense allows fewer than 300 yards per game. The Noles will stack the box and make Wisconsin QB Dustin Sherer beat them. He won't.