Pointwise Writeups
MOTOR CITY BOWL
AT DETROIT, MICHIGAN
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (8-4) vs FLORIDA ATLANTIC (6-6)
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 26
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Cent Mich ... 39.9 .. 30-31 .. 23-22 .. 134-139 .. 293-286.. + 4 . Cent Mich
Fla Atlantic . 36.1 .. 25-29 .. 20-22 .. 141-183 .. 251-219.. - 9 . by 7.2 Pts
ANALYSIS
Defense! Defense! Surely, that's not the byword, as far as either of these two
teams are concerned. Check the score of the final game for each squad: a
57-50 win for the Owls of Florida Atlantic, and a 56-52 loss for the Chippewas
of Central Michigan. The Owls needed it for a "bowl eligible" 6-6 record, after
opening at 1-5, following '07's campaign, in which they finished at 8-5, with a
44-27 thrashing of Memphis in the New Orleans Bowl (20½ pt cover). The
Chips, on the other hand, were safely ensconced in a bowl slot, before losing
to 3-8 EasternMich, to wind up a disappointing season. We say disappointing,
as they had won the MAC in '06 & '07, with resounding 31-10 & 35-10 rompers
in their conference title games (24½ & 22 pt covers). Led by Dan LeFevour,
who has been a brilliant manager, throwing for 8,760 yds & 67 TDs the past 3
years, the Chippewas have posted a 26-14 mark in '06, '07, & '08. But their
bane is a "D" which ranks 105th, overall, allowing 38 ppg in their last 4 outings.
As noted above, the Owls needed a spectacular finish to get to this point. A
check above shows the overwhelming edge to Central, in the all-important TO
category, as FAU turned the ball over at least twice in 9 of its 12 games, & at
least 3 times in 5 games. Pure suicide here, if they are to continue that trend.
But like the Chips, FlaAtlantic is led by a proven QB in the person of Rusty
Smith, who finished the year with 2,918 PYs & 22 TDs, including 389 PYs & 5
TDs in his last game vs FlaInternational. We would love to grab the TD & the
Owls, but a year ago, FAU led the nation in TO ratio (+19), & that stat just can't
be overemphasized. Fifth game on this field for Chips in last 3 years. Grab it.
PROPHECY: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 48 - Florida Atlantic 37 RATING: 5
MEINEKE BOWL
AT CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA
WEST VIRGINIA (8-4) vs NORTH CAROLINA (8-4)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27
1:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
W Virginia .. 43.2 .. 24-16 .. 18-20 .. 217-135 .. 135-191.. +12 . W Virginia
N Carolina .. 44.3 .. 28-20 .. 16-20 .. 125-141 .. 192-217.. + 6 . by 5.7 Pts
ANALYSIS
Seventh straight bowl appearance for the Mountaineers of West Virginia, the
first under the tutelage of Bill Stewart, who inherited the unenviable task of
replacing Rich Rodriguez, who led the Mounties to 11-win seasons in each of
the past 3 years. The trigger, of course, is QB White, who has sent tremors
through more than a few opposing defenses over the past 4 seasons. He not
only is dynamite, overhead (1,510 yds, 18 TDs, & only 6 INTs), but is near
impossible to bring down in the open field, rushing for 919 yds. Ditto a year
ago, when he finished 9th in passing efficiency, with 1,724 yds (14/4). He has
averaged 7.3, 7.4, 6.9, & 5.4 in rushing for 4,425 yds the past 4 years. Gone
is running mate, Steve Slaton, but Devine is no slouch, with his 1,228 RYs (6.4
ypr). Add to that, a defense, which ranks 9th in scoring, & you have a near
unbeatable team, right? Technically, yes, but this year's results have been a
major step down from the past 3 years, when WVa ranked 4th, 3rd, & 3rd in
rushing, while scoring at 32, 39, & 40 ppg clips. A ticking bomb, to be sure, but
the results pale in comparison to recent editions. The Tar Heels of North
Carolina return to the bowl scene for the first time since the '04 Continental, &
for just the 2nd time in a decade. That's right, this marks only their 2nd winning
year since 1998. Thus, Butch Davis is obviously righting this listing ship,
altho it certainly isn't overland, where the Tars rank a lowly 87th, never topping
187 yds. So it's overhead, right. Wrong: just 83rd, altho Sexton & Yates have
combined for 18 TDs & 2,218 yds. But note 'Heels 45-24 FD deficit in their
stretch run losses to Maryland & NCSt. Home field is not enough for Carolina.
PROPHECY: WEST VIRGINIA 27 - North Carolina 17 RATING: 2
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
AT ORLANDO, FLORIDA
FLORIDA STATE (8-4) vs WISCONSIN (7-5)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27
4:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Florida St ... 48.3 .. 33-21 .. 20-17 .. 180-127 .. 186-165.. - 3 . Florida St
Wisconsin .. 44.8 .. 28-25 .. 20-17 .. 205-132 .. 188-189.. - 5 . by 1.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
First-ever meeting for these 2 perennial bowl participants. For the Seminoles
of Florida State, this marks their 27th straight bowl season, & 30th in Bobby
Bowden's 33 years of leadership. However, as is the case every year, a bit of
history shows that this makes 3 straight years without a premier New Year's
Day slot for FlaSt. From '87 thru '00, the Sems suffered no more than 2 losses
in any season, an incredible 14-year run. However, they've tasted defeat 36
times since 2001, including 21 setbacks over the past 4 years. But at least in
'08, they've somewhat stopped the offensive bleeding, with saw them ranked
59th, 75th, & 82nd in total "O" the past 3 years. Their current 55th rating isn't
anything special, but at least it's a turn in the right direction. And their 33 ppg
average is a full 10 pts better than '07, moving from 90th to 22nd. Overland,
they've had their moments, averaging 248 yds vs Miami, GaTech, & Clemson,
but try 89 & 73 vs VaTech & BC. Unreliable. Nothing wrong, defensively, as
they rank 14th overall - 30th vs the run. Thus, that unit must contain what has
been the Badgers' bread-&-butter for the past dozen year, the overland game.
This marks UW's 7th straight bowl season, & 12th in the last 13 years. They
are led by Hill & Clay (combined 1,866 RYs, 22 TDs). The insertion of Sherer
at QB resulted in a rebirth of that running game, somewhat, but the fact of the
matter is that they've topped 179 RYs in just 3 lined games. Defensively, they
throttled such teams as Illinois, MichSt, & Minnesota (71 RYpg), but finished
with the 58th ranked scoring "D". The past 3 years have seen the dog cover 5-
of-6 bowls, involving these 2 squads, with the only miss by just 2½ pts. Again.
PROPHECY: WISCONSIN 27 - Florida State 24 RATING: 2
EMERALD BOWL
AT SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA
CALIFORNIA (8-4) vs MIAMI OF FLORIDA (7-5)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
California ... 43.8 .. 33-20 .. 18-18 .. 184-123 .. 196-193.. +14 . California
Miami .......... 46.9 .. 30-24 .. 17-17 .. 130-144 .. 197-169.. - 9 . by 11.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
The Hurricanes of Miami return to the bowl scene, after a rare miss LY, which
ended a 9-yr run. Their downward trend was obvious. Check it out beginning
with '00: 11-1, 12-0 (national title), 12-1, 11-2, 9-3, 9-3, 7-6, 5-7, & 8-4. So a
rebirth of sorts, with 11 new starters. They've had their moments, with such pt
explosions of 41, 39, & 49 pts, but 2 of those 3 came vs Duke & TexasA&M, a
pair of 4-8 squads. And overland they managed a meager 159, 51, & 154 yds
in those 3. As you can see from the above stats, 130 RYpg hardly translates
into a power. Cooper is the only back with more than 62 carries, checking in at
4.9 ypr, & just 4 TDs. Overhead, it is a mixed bag, with the combo of Marve &
Harris throwing for 2,294 yds, but with their 19 TDs offset by an identical 19
INTs, which has contributed to the 'Canes' 101st ranking in the nation in TO
ratio. Defensively, UM fared much better: 23rd overall. But check being skinned
for 41 & 38 pts in their final 2 games, along with 472, 219 RYs (518, 439 TYs):
15-pt, 12-pt spread losses. Those losses (GaTech & NCSt) were on the road,
which is exactly where this game takes place. A definite home game for the
Bears of California, who mark their 6th consecutive bowl season, with this
one. A year ago, they rose from the ashes in the Armed Forces Bowl, turning
a 21-0 deficit vs AirForce, into a 42-30 lead, winning 42-36, as a 4½ pt chalk.
They are led by the scintillating Best: 1,394 RYs (8.0 ypr), with QBs Riley &
Longshore contributing 22 TDs & just 10 INTs. The Bears rank 7th in the land
in TO margin, & have been a special force at home. As a matter of fact, the
host is on a 12-2 spread run in Cal games. No reason to be leary of TD spot.
PROPHECY: CALIFORNIA 33 - Miami of Florida 17 RATING: 1
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
AT SHREVEPORT, LOUISIANA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (6-6) vs LOUISIANA TECH (7-5)
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 28
8:15 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
No Illinois ... 36.6 .. 25-18 .. 18-17 .. 169-137 .. 161-163.. + 4 . La Tech
La Tech ....... 38.5 .. 25-25 .. 19-20 .. 195-100 .. 157-280.. + 7 . by 0.7 Pts
ANALYSIS
Not exactly the match that the country has been eagerly awaiting, but these 2
seemingly non-entities could provide a very entertaining show. This marks
just the 3rd time in their gridiron history, that the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech
play in a bowl game that includes a national line. They participated in the '77
& '78 Independence Bowls, against Louisville & East Carolina, when neither
the Cards, nor the Pirates were on the Vegas rotation. Their other 2 holiday
contests took place in the '90 Independence, when, as a 1-pt dog they tied
Maryland, 34-34, as time expired. And in '01, they were fodder for Clemson in
a 49-24 Humanitarian Bowl mauling. But here they are again, less than 100
miles from their campus, to boot. Thus, the 10-2 ATS home record in games
involving Tech, must be taken into account. The Bulldogs rely on an overland
game which finished as the 26th best in the nation, with Porter & Jackson a
combined 1,730 yds & 16 TDs. Defensively, Tech was stung for 35, 38, 31, &
35 pts in 4 of its final 5 outings, but managed 38, 45, 38, & 31 pts in those 4.
As we said, entertaining. The Huskies are just the opposite, ranking only 83rd
in total offense, but with a suffocating "D", which finished 14th in scoring. Check
holding 8 of their last 10 opponents to 3, 0, 13, 7, 13, 14, & 16 pts. Sure, they
were stung for 45 & 33 pts in their 2 misses, but 1 was an OT loss to potent
CentMich. Only vs BallSt, were the Huskies overmatched, as 4 of their other
5 losses came by just 4, 3, 4, & 3 pts, with the fifth a 16-0 setback to Navy. Try
just 12 TD passes, along with 10 INTs, for the season. We normally shade the
better defense, but Tech has been a solid "host" play all season. A weak call.
PROPHECY: LOUISIANA TECH 19 - Northern Illinois 16 RATING: 6
RUTGERS (7-5) vs NORTH CAROLINA STATE (6-6)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 29
3:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Rutgers ...... 43.0 . 29- 19 ... 20-15 . 130-130 .. 266- 185 .. - 2 . Rutgers
No Caro St . 48.4 . 24- 26 ... 17-21 . 126-144 .. 201- 243 .. +11 . by 8.2 Pts
ANALYSIS
Talk about rising from the dead. Lazarus had nothing on these 2 squads, with
the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers standing at 1-5 thru week 6, and the Wolfpack
of North Carolina State needing a sweep of their final 4 games, to qualify for a
bowl, after opening at 2-6. But here they are, with the Knights sweeping their
final 6 games, & the 'Pack doing likewise in their last 4 outings. For Rutgers,
this marks their 4th consecutive bowl campaign, after being left out in the cold
for the previous 27 years! The insertion of Greg Schiano as head man, in '01,
has done wonders for the former doormat status of the Knights. In '05, they
nearly upset ArizonaSt in the Insight Bowl, & followed with routs of KansasSt
& BallSt in the Texas & International the past 2 years. They've averaged 43
ppg in those 3 post-season affairs, & despite the loss of RB Rice (4,926 RY
past 3 yrs), they figured to continue their upswing. Afterall, QB Teel, along
with 14 other returning starters augured well. But they opened at 0-3 SU, by a
combined 65½ pts ATS. But Teel took the team on his shoulders, winding up
at 3,099 PYs & 23 TDs (20 in his last 5 games), with 1,252 receiving yds by
Britt (2nd best in the nation). And note splendid 8-0 ATS run to wind up (+106
pts in RU's last 5 game). The 'Pack has also been a superb finisher, not only
on the field, but has been pure gold ATS, covering their last 7, including a 43
pt cover vs NoCarolina. They are led by Wilson, who has thrown for 16 TDs,
with only ONE INT. As a matter of fact he enters this fray, on a school-record
226 passes without an interception. Defensively, NCSt ranks just 94th vs the
pass. That, along with overwhelming Knight bowl success, could be decider.
PROPHECY: RUTGERS 38 - North Carolina State 24 RATING: 6
MISSOURI (9-4) vs NORTHWESTERN (9-3)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 29
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Missouri ..... 48.0 .. 43-28 .. 26-24 .. 156-129 .. 340-285.. - 2 . Missouri
N'Western .. 41.6 .. 25-19 .. 20-19 .. 148-128 .. 210-215.. - 5 . by 2.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
For the 2nd straight year, the Tigers of Missouri enter their bowl reward, fresh
off an embarrassing loss to Oklahoma, in the Big12 Title Game. A year ago,
they were ranked #1 in the nation, upon entering their game with the Sooners,
owning the 5th best offense, & 8th best scoring "O", but were routed, 38-17
(18-pt ATS loss). Thus a monumental letdown, & would be a nice "go-against"
come bowl time, right? Wrong. Try a 38-8 pulverizing of a decent Arkansas
team, in the Cotton Bowl (27-pt cover). Led by QB Daniel, who has thrown for
70 TDs the past 2 years, the Tigers enter this one at #6, both in total & scoring
offense, altho it must be noted that he threw 8 interceptions in Missouri's four
losses this year, 4 of which came in their final 2 tilts (29 & 24½ pt ATS losses).
For Mizzou, this marks its 4th consecutive bowl season, & thus far, the Tigers
have fared quite well, winning & covering their first 3, while scoring 38, 38, &
38 pts. Monotonous. Oh, by the way, they rank 100th, in total "D" (were 59th
in '07), as well as ranking 118th in passing "D", while allowing 102 pts in their
final 2 games. For the Wildcats of Northwestern, this is marks their 1st bowl
shot since the '05 Sun (50-38 loss to UCLA, despite a 584-453 yd edge). The
'Cats opened at 5-0, including an eye-opening upset at Iowa, as 9-pt dogs,
before settling in at 9-3, while finishing at #20 in the polls. RB Sutton is key,
but is hardly reliable (wrist injury). QB Bacher, no doubt, is licking his chops at
the prospect of facing the Tigers' porous pass "D", but he is only 14/14 for the
season. Northwestern has reached 200 RYs just once, since its opener, but
ditto, its rush "D". Bucking bowl-proven Tigs sure is frightening. So we won't.
PROPHECY: MISSOURI 38 - Northwestern 20 RATING: 6
NEVADA (7-5) vs MARYLAND (7-5)
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 30
4:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Nevada ....... 39.8 . 38- 32 .. 25-19 .. 291- 75 .. 219- 321 .. + 1 . Nevada
Maryland .... 43.7 . 20- 21 .. 18-20 .. 135-149 .. 207- 206 .. - 8 . by 4.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
Not exactly what the Terrapins of Maryland were figuring, when, with 2 weeks
remaining in the regular season, they had the ACC Atlantic in their hands,
after a bruising 17-15 win over NoCarolina, in which they enjoyed a 195-75 RY
edge. But that was followed by a 37-3 wipeout loss (32½ pt ATS setback) to
FloridaSt, & a 28-21 loss to BC, in which they were outrushed, 175 to minus 6.
(2nd time this year that Maryland registered negative RYs). Inconsistency is
the byword of this year's Terp squad, as we've been reporting all season. As
a matter of fact, thru their first 7 lined games, the dog stood at 6-1 ATS, by an
astounding 144½ pts, covering by such figures as 24½, 32, 14, 44, & 28 pts.
Simply amazing. Things leveled off a bit, down the stretch, but you get the
drift. Offensively, Scott is their main cheese, overland (959 yds), but <5.0 ypr.
QB Turner has 2318 PYs, but with just 11 TDs & 10 picks. However, he may
find the pickings a bit easier, vs the worst passing "D" in the nation, which is
owned by the Wolf Pack of Nevada, who are allowing >320 PYpg. No, Nevada
didn't get this far via its defense (91st overall), but rather an offense which has
topped 40 pts seven times this year, ranking 5th in total "O", as well as 2nd in
rushing "O". Led by QB Kaepernick, who has not only thrown for 2,479 yds &
19 TDs (only 5 INTs), but who has rushed for 1,115 yds (7.3 ypr) & 16 TDs, the
'Pack is formidable, indeed. Throw in RB's Taua's 1,420 yds (6.7 ypr) & 14
TDs, & you have an offensive power. Check losing to perfect Boise by a mere
41-34 score, while holding the Broncos to 70 RYs. And note allowing just 2.6
ypr (#3 run "D"). Terps' downtick finish hardly bodes well in this atmosphere.
PROPHECY: NEVADA 38 - Maryland 27 RATING: 1
RICE (9-3) vs WESTERN MICHIGAN (9-3)
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 30
8:00 PM EST -- NFL TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Rice ............ 38.2 . 42- 35 .. 26-24 .. 144-193 .. 328- 274 .. +13 . Rice
West Mich .. 36.5 . 30- 24 .. 22-19 .. 122-141 .. 301- 249 .. - 3 . by 8.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
Let it fly! Check it out. The opposing QBs in this contest have thrown for a
combined 7,339 yds & 75 TDs. The Owls of Rice return to the bowl scene for
the 2nd time in the past 3 years, with their 41-17 embarrassing loss to Troy in
the '06 New Orleans, marking Rice's first appearance in the holiday season
since the 1961 Bluebonnet. And as most fans are aware, the Owls are a
part of bowl lore, with the '53 Dicky Maegle Cotton Bowl incident legendary.
Anyway, in that wipeout loss to Troy, QB Armstrong, who replaced Clement
(shoulder) threw no less than 5 INTs, & that was that, a 24-pt loss, despite a
mere 26-yd deficit. You know that has been stickinging in the Owls' craw for
the last 2 years. This season, if its game with Texas is eliminated, Rice scored
at a 44.5 ppg clip, & that includes a 44.2 ppg average in the Owls' 6-game run
to finish the season, covering all but 1, missing by 2 pts. In his last 8 games,
Clement has thrown for 32 TDs, finishing at 41/7 for the season, along with
3,814 yds (66.4½). And together with WR Dillard (19 TD catches this year),
they've combined for the most TDs than any duo in NCAA history. But what
about the firepower of the Broncos of Western Michigan? Well, QB Tim Hiller
has thrown for 3,527 yds (66.7%), with 34 TDs, & only 8 picks, leading WM to
just is 4th post-season appearance. They made it to the International, in '06,
when they staged a brilliant comeback, erasing a 24-0 deficit in the 2nd, only
to lose, 27-24, in the final 6:11 (4-pt cover). But that Bronco team ranked 11th
in the nation, defensively, & entered with a +11 TO edge, quite the opposite
from the above stats. Plenty of fireworks are assured, so we lay the FG spot.
PROPHECY: RICE 41 - Western Michigan 31 RATING: 5
OKLAHOMA STATE (9-3) vs OREGON (9-3)
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 30
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Okla St ........ 49.9 . 42- 27 .. 25-23 .. 256-124 .. 233- 269 .. + 5 . Oregon
Oregon ....... 45.0 . 42- 28 .. 23-21 .. 278-119 .. 200- 264 .. + 5 . by 5.0 Pts
ANALYSIS
Look no further than the above stats to see that a classic could easily be the
result of this meeting. The similarities are there for all to see, including the
average score, where the Cowboys of Oklahoma State hold a 42-27 ppg edge,
while the Ducks of Oregon have a 42-28 ppg advantage. The 'Pokes rank
7th, offensively, with the Ducks 8th. Oregon ranks 4th in the nation in rushing,
while OkieSt ranks 7th. Defensively, neither bar is set high, with OU ranking
81st & 109th in total & passing, while OSU ranks 87th & 111th, respectively.
And both are decent in containing the run: Oregon is 24th; OklaSt is 27th. If
there is to be a discernible edge, it must be in the TO category, right? Hardly.
Check an exact same +5 in that all-important column. However, in Average
Opponent Power Rating, the Cowboys have been tested by slightly better
foes. The 'Pokes had covered 9 straight, rising to the 8th spot in the polls,
with their lone SU loss coming at Texas, by just 28-24. But they were routed
at TexasTech, 56-20 (32½ ATS loss), & despite a 20-pt loss to Oklahoma, in
their finale, still rank 13th or 14th in the polls. QB Robinson (2,735 yds, 24/8),
RB Hunter (1,518 yds, 6.7 ypr), & WR Bryant (1,313 yds, 18 TDs), are nearly
unstoppable, at times. Try 34 & 49 pts in their '06 & '07 bowl wins. Duck QB
Masoli can't compare to Robinson, with just 1,486 yds, 12/4), but check 572
yds & 5 TD passes in OU's 55-45 & 65-38 wins over bowl bound Arizona &
OregonSt, to wind up the season (30-pt cover vs OSU). Last year, the Ducks
(+5½) rolled to a 56-21 win over SoFlorida, with a 533-334 yd edge. Holiday
Bowls are normally barnburners, so why not another? We'll grab the FG spot.
PROPHECY: OREGON 40 - Oklahoma State 34 RATING: 2
HOUSTON (7-5) vs AIR FORCE (8-4)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
12:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Houston ..... 38.4 . 41- 31 .. 28-22 .. 162-170 .. 414- 249 .. - 5 . Houston
Air Force .... 41.0 . 27- 21 .. 18-19 .. 269-140 .... 80- 196 .. +12 . by 5.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
Rematch! These 2 met in week 3 of the regular season, with the Falcons of
Air Force (+2) racing to a 31-7 lead, en route to a 31-28 win. As per usual, the
Falcs controlled the running game, with a 380-172 yd edge, but a 6.1-5.4 ypr
deficit. It must be noted that AF was in off a pair of walkthroughs vs SoUtah &
Wyoming, while UH entered off a 56-37 loss to OklahomaSt. Thus, the 'Pokes
& Falcons put a whippin' on that Cougar rushing "D" to the tune of 379 & 380
yds. So take note of Houston's 170 RYpg "D" at year's end, which translates
into allowing just 127.5 RYpg vs its other 10 opponents. Yes, we know that the
'Force has already proven its worth vs the Coog "D", & once again ranks among
the overland elites, but we also acknowledge Houston improvement. It may
surprise some, but this is just AF's 2nd bowl in the last 6 seasons (but 2-for-2
under Calhoun). Last year, the Falcs (+4½) blew a 21-0 lead over Cal, in this
bowl, losing 42-36, despite a 312-202 RY edge. The Coogs are led by QB
Case Keenum, who ranks 1st in the nation in passing efficiency: 4,761 yds, 43
TDs (2nd only to Oklahoma's Heisman winning Bradford), & 67.3%. Beall
(1,119 RYs, 6.3 ypr) leads a running game, that averaged 5.2 ypr. And a batch
of receivers (Hafner, Carrier, etc) have also contributed to an offense, which
wound up #1 in total "O". For the Cougars, this marks their 5th bowl trip in the
past 6 years, the first as chalks. The past 2 years, they've missed the ATS
brass ring by just 2 & 1 pt, vs the likes of SoCarolina & TCU. Thus, more than
competitive. First year for head coach Kevin Sumlin, who was formerly "O"
coordinator with Oklahoma. Obviously, he has served Coogs well. Revenge!
PROPHECY: HOUSTON 38 - Air Force 31 RATING: 6
OREGON STATE (8-4) vs PITTSBURGH (9-3)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
2:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Oregon St ... 43.7 . 33- 25 .. 22-16 .. 165-135 .. 254- 189 .. + 2 . Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh .. 43.2 . 29- 23 .. 19-17 .. 143-128 .. 213- 193 .. - 4 . by 10.1 Pts
ANALYSIS
Not exactly what the Beavers of Oregon State were aiming for, in their season
finale with arch-rival Oregon. A win over the Ducks would have resulted in an
OSU Rose Bowl appearance for the first time since 1964. But it wasn't meant
to be, as they had to go it without Pac10 frosh record setter Jacquizz Rodgers,
with the ensuing 65-38 loss, the result. And 4 turnovers didn't help, with a pair
of interceptions taken the distance (40 & 70 yds). OSU entered that game on
a 7-1 spread run, by 109 pts, by the way. The Beavs, of course, shocked the
gridiron world, when they pinned the only loss on USC, as 24-pt dogs, no less.
In that one, Rodgers ran for 186 yds. Not only that, but USC was held to just
86 RYs (121 yds below its season average) & 313 total yds. At year's end,
Moevao was a decent 19/11, with 2,341 PY (60.5%). Defensively, OSU ranks
33rd overall, allowing only 3 teams to top 136 RYs. Bowl-wise, the Beavers
are 3-1 ATS under Riley since '03, averaging 38.3 ppg. In sharp contrast, this
is the very first bowl appearance for the Panthers of Pittsburgh, under the
leadership of Dave Wannstedt. Inheriting an 8-4 '04 Fiesta Bowl team, he has
hardly been the messiah hoped for by the Pitt faithful, with ensuing 5-6, 6-6, &
5-7 campaigns, before this year's splendid 9-3 mark. He's had his moments,
to be sure, especially with LY's season-ending upset of WestVirginia (32½ pt
cover), thereby depriving the Mounties of the BCS title tilt. Pitt has been led by
RB McCoy, who has amassed 2,731 yds & 35 TDs the past 2 years, but QB
Stull is nothing special thus far, 2,308 yds, but just 9/9. The dog is 23-6 ATS in
Pitt games, but the Beavers sure know how to light it up come bowl season.
PROPHECY: OREGON STATE 33 - Pittsburgh 20 RATING: 5
BOSTON COLLEGE (9-4) vs VANDERBILT (6-6)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
3:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Bost Coll .... 43.2 .. 26-19 .. 18-15 . 144- 92 .. 176- 181 .. + 6 . Bost Coll
Vanderbilt ... 46.6 .. 19-20 .. 15-18 .. 138-145 . 123- 174 .. + 6 . by 0.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
Twenty-six long years. That's how long the Commodores of Vanderbilt have
had to wait, since playing in their last bowl game, a 36-28 loss to AirForce in
the '82 Hall of Fame, as 9½ pt chalks, no less. In that one, they squandered a
28-17 lead after 3, with the Falcons' 331-35 RY edge, overcoming 452 PYs by
Vandy's Whit Taylor. By the way, that marked Vandy's 3rd-ever bowl contest.
The past 2 years have been near mirror images for the 'Dores, who needed
just a single win over their last 4 games in '07, only to come up empty, with a
25-24 loss to arch-rival Tennessee, the most irksome. This season, Vandy
opened with 5 wins (& covers), but promptly dropped 3 straight, before the
faithful breathed a collective sigh of relief, when they jumped to a 24-0 lead
over Kentucky, en route to a 31-24 win. Thus their streak of 25 consecutive
losing years was snapped, with the magic "bowl eligibility" label finally theirs.
As can be seen from the above stats, Vandy is hardly an offensive power,
ranking 118th, with an overland game which has topped 150 yds just once,
with QBs Nickson & Adams at just 49.2 (8/3) & 49.4 (5/8) respectively. Thus
a "D", which has held 6 foes below 18 pts, ranking 29th in the land, is their
bread-&-butter. But the bowl-tested Eagles of Boston College check in at #6
in total "D", holding 4 foes to 7 pts or less (3 shutouts). However, note BC's
other 8 opponents averaging 29.3 ppg. Thus, a bit of chink in that defensive
armor. Offensively, the Eagles check in at #94, down from LY's Matt Ryan led
"O", which finished 33rd best in the land. Eight straight bowl wins for BC, but
by just 25-24 & 24-21 scores last 2 years (ATS losses). Call for continuance.
PROPHECY: Boston College 23 - VANDERBILT 22 RATING: 6
KANSAS (7-5) vs MINNESOTA (7-5)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
5:30 PM EST -- NFL TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Kansas ....... 48.6 .. 33-30 .. 23-21 . 129-127 .. 302- 276 .. + 3 . Kansas
Minnesota .. 42.7 .. 23-23 .. 16-19 . 106-147 .. 216- 232 .. +12 . by 12.1 Pts
ANALYSIS
A year ago, these 2 squads couldn't have been more different, as the Jayhawks
of Kansas nearly ran the table, with a regular-season ending loss to Missouri
marring an otherwise perfect campaign. That's right: 12-1 straightup, with an
astounding 11-1 spread mark. The Jays made it to the 2nd spot in the nation,
before that Mizzou setback, & finished 8th in total "O", & 2nd in scoring. In
stark contrast, the Gophers of Minnesota, who were perennial bowl entrants
(5 straight from '02-'06) posted an unimaginable 1-11 log in '07, Tim Brewster's
1st year at the helm, after taking over from Glen Mason, who was let go after
Minny blew a 28-pt halftime lead, losing 44-41 (OT) to TexasTech in this same
bowl in '06. But this year, they won 7 of their first 8 (OhioSt), rising to the 20th
spot in the nation. Not only that, but they were on an 8-1 spread run, by 106½
pts. But things took a turn for the worse, as Minny dropped its final 4 games,
including a 55-0 home loss to Iowa, in its finale (23-6 FD, 222-7 RY, 483-134
TY deficits). The term "limping in" hardly seems strong enough. They are led
by QB Weber (2,585 yds, 62.8%, 14/8), with WR Decker his main target. But
check ranking 104th in rushing; certainly foreign to the Mason years. Forcing
the TO (30) seems their main forte. KU also struggled down the stretch, with
a 2-4 mark, allowing 39.3 ppg in those 6. Thus, a 94th "D" ranking, despite 9
returning starters to a unit which finished 12th a year ago. They are led, of
course by their brilliant QB, Todd Reesing, who has thrown for 7,053 yds & 61
TDs the past 2 years. However, note the Jays entered LY's Orange Bowl at
44 ppg. Hardly the overpowering squad from a year ago, so a mild Minny call.
PROPHECY: Kansas 31 - MINNESOTA 27 RATING: 5
GEORGIA TECH (9-3) vs LSU (7-5)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
7:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Ga Tech ...... 47.3 .. 26-18 .. 17-17 .. 282-117 ... 95- 196 .. + 5 . Ga Tech
LSU ............. 46.6 .. 30-26 .. 20-16 .. 167-106 . 206- 221 .. - 4 . by 6.2 Pts
ANALYSIS
Quite a comedown for the defending National Champion Tigers of LSU. Last
year, they made it to the BCS title game, despite an 11-2 record (43-37, 50-48
OT losses to Kentucky & Arkansas), triumphing over OhioSt, 38-24 (10-pt
cover). The Bengals lost 10 starters from that squad, including QB Flynn,
who, altho nothing special, owned a 21/11 TD to INT ratio, throwing for 4 TDs
in the title game, with just a single pick. That squad finished the season with
the 3rd best "D" in the land, the 11th best overland game, & with the 2nd best
TO ranking (+20). Contrast that to this year, with the Tigers ranking 36th in
total "D", 42nd in rushing, & 78th in TO ratio. Their main man is RB Scott, who
finished with 1,109 yds (5.5 ypr) & 15 TDs. Lee is their new man under center,
but is hardly reliable (53%), with just 14 TDs, & 16 INTs (7 of which were taken
the distance). Check an 0-6 spread run to finish up the season, while being
stung for 31, 31, & 31 pts in their final 3 games. Rushing "D" seems their only
forte, but that unit had better be at its best, if it is to contain the Yellow Jackets
of Georgia Tech, & their triple option offense installed by new head coach Paul
Johnson. Sure, the Tigers are a holiday fixture (9 straight yrs), but almost
unnoticed, this marks the Jackets' 12th consecutive bowl season. Tho not
making it into the ACC title match, Tech is arguably the hottest team in the
conference, scoring 41 & 45 pts, with 472 & 409 RYs in their season-ending
wins over Miami & Georgia (snapping a 7-game slide vs the 'Dawgs). QB
Nesbitt is the optioneering trigger, with Dwyer at 1,328 RYs (7.0 ypr) & 12 TDs.
LSU: 1st team since '43 to follow national title with losing league record. Tech!
PROPHECY: GEORGIA TECH 34 - Lsu 24 RATING: 3
IOWA (8-4) vs SOUTH CAROLINA (7-5)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
11:00 AM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Iowa ............ 43.7 .. 30-13 .. 21-17 . 190- 98 .. 185- 191 .. + 6 . Iowa
So Caro ...... 48.1 .. 22-20 .. 19-16 ... 98-129 .. 219- 160 .. - 9 . by 9.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
It didn't take the Hawkeyes of Iowa long to return to the bowl scene. A year
ago, they posted a 6-6 record, good enough for "bowl eligibility", but still their
first non-winning season since '00, & a stay-at-home holiday, thanks mainly to
a season-ending 28-19 loss to WesternMich, as 2-TD chalks. And that just 3
years removed from their 3rd consecutive double-digit win campaign, when
Kirk Ferentz was acclaimed as one of the true elite coaches in the country. It
looked like more of the same this year, when Iowa saw a 3-0 start vs the dregs,
turn into 3-3, with hard fought losses to Pitt, N'Western, & MichSt, due mainly
to 9 TOs, including 5 vs the Wildcats. But they were to lose only once more, at
Illinois, on a 46-yd FG in the final 0:24. Over the entire course of the season,
only PennSt had an overland edge over Iowa, as the 'Hawks finished 9th in the
nation vs the run. And at year's end their stellar ball toter Greene finished 2nd
in the nation with 1,729 yds (6.2 ypr), & 17 TDs. QB Stanzi is steady, if not
spectacular, altho he did throw for 3 TDs in Iowa's season-ending 55-0 rout of
Minny (23-6 FD, 222-7 RY edges). The Gamecocks of South Carolina wound
up the season with a pair of disappointing losses, by a combined 87-20 score,
but still rank 11th in the nation in total "D" (tied with Iowa). Wins over bowlbound
NCSt, OleMiss, & Kentucky saw SC at just 108 RYpg, offensively, while its 5
losses had the 'Cocks at a 187-62 RYpg deficit. Ranking 110th in running, the
offensive onus therefore, is squarely on the QB duo of Smelley & Garcia, who
combined for just 56%, 2,496 yds, & a negative 19/20 TD/INT ratio. Spurrier in
a New Year's Day Florida bowl, but Iowa's overland supremacy the final edge.
PROPHECY: IOWA 27 - South Carolina 17 RATING: 2
CLEMSON (7-5) vs NEBRASKA (8-4)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Clemson ..... 46.1 .. 26-16 .. 18-16 .. 121-128 .. 219-167.. - 2 . Clemson
Nebraska .... 44.9 .. 36-29 .. 23-18 .. 164-128 .. 285-234.. - 10 . by 2.8 Pts
ANALYSIS
In 2004, the Cornhuskers of Nebraska failed to make it to a bowl game, which
marked their first miss, after 32 straight years of holiday season inclusion.
But a quick return, with Alamo Bowl & Cotton Bowl appearances in '05 & '06,
before missing again last year with a 5-7 log, despite a definite turnaround in
their offensive capability, finishing 9th in total "O". Right, a defense that checked
in at #112 overall, & #114 in scoring. This season, that "O" is again purring,
under new coach Pelini, ranking 12th in total, & 18th in scoring. QB Ganz is
the catalyst, throwing for 3,329 yds (69.2%), along with 23 TDs (10 INTs), but
the 'Huskers also move it overland, averaging 212 RYpg in their last 6 outings,
with Helu toting it at 6.7 ypr. Nebraska couldn't stay with the likes of Missouri
& Oklahoma, but 5 & 6 pt losses to VaTech & Kansas (OT) in their other 2
losses, were well within the respectable range. And they've reached the 30-pt
plateau in 13 of their last 15 tilts. The Tigers of Clemson were ranked #9 in the
preseason polls, but their much ballyhooed backfield of Harper, Davis, & Spiller
opened with a whimper, failing to top 17 pts in 4 of its first 5 lined games,
losing all 4, not only SU, by ATS, by 46½ pts. Note a 12-2 TO deficit in those
4 setbacks. Anyway, bye-bye to Tommy Bowden, & hello, to Dabo Swinney,
with vast improvement the result. Check the Tigers winning 4 of their final 5
games, due mainly to Harper, and a solid "D", as that overland game is at only
88 ypg over CU's final 7 games. The Tigers rank 15th in total "D", & 9th in
passing efficiency "D", which could spell trouble for Ganz & Co. Rematch of
the '81 Orange Bowl, which resulted in a National Title for Clemson. Huskers!
PROPHECY: NEBRASKA 30 - Clemson 27 RATING: 4
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (11-1) vs PENN STATE (11-1)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
4:30 PM EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
USC ............ 41.9 .. 38- 8 .. 23-13 .. 207- 83 .. 246-123 .. + 5 . USC
Penn State . 43.4 .. 40-12 .. 23-15 .. 211- 96 .. 241-168 .. + 9 . by 5.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
What a match! The joke that is the BCS has now eliminated at least 4 squads
which should have had a shot at all the marbles, including the participants of
this classic, a pair of gridiron elites, who are rarely far from the pinnacle at
season's end. The Nittany Lions of Penn State, however, suffered through 4
losing seasons in 5 years ('00-'04), with cries of the game passing Paterno by
abounding. But Joe & Co snapped back with an 11-1 season in '06, missing a
perfect season on a final play loss to Michigan. Then a pair of 9-4 campaigns,
before hitting on all cylinders with this year's "HD" offense, which has been the
epitome of balance all season, resulting in a near-perfect record, losing only to
Iowa, by a single pt, on a last-second FG. QB Clark has been magnificent:
60%, 2,324 yds, 17 TDs, & only 4 INTs. Overland, Royster is at 6.5 ypr (1,202
yds & 12 TDs). Defensively? How about ranking 5th overall, 8th vs the run, &
3rd in scoring? One of their early season victims was OregonSt, which was
pummelled by the Lions, 45-14. So it must be noted that the Beavs represent
the only slipup for the Trojans of USC, in an otherwise perfect campaign. In
that one, Troy was on the short end of a 176-86 RY difference, allowing 186
RYs to Beaver RB Rodgers. But that loss served to jack the Trojans for the
remainder of the season, resulting in a 338-53 pt edge in their ensuing 9 tilts.
Statwise, USC has no peer, ranking 1st in total, passing, & scoring "D", as well
as 5th vs the run. Check holding a 55-11 FD edge in its last 2 games. Fifth
Rose Bowl for USC in the past 6 years, & Troy is 5-1 ATS in bowls since '02,
scoring 38, 28, 55, 38, 32, & 49 pts. Sanchez & Co continue that brilliance.
PROPHECY: SO CALIFORNIA 38 - Penn State 24 RATING: 4
GEORGIA (9-3) vs MICHIGAN STATE (9-3)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Georgia ...... 51.3 .. 32-26 .. 21-18 . 154-130 .. 280- 188 .. - 2 . Georgia
Mich St ....... 43.6 .. 26-22 .. 19-17 . 138-148 .. 214- 210 .. + 1 . by 7.7 Pts
ANALYSIS
As you know, on our opening issue each yr, we include a column, called "The
Polls", which is a consensus ranking of various leading gridiron magazines.
Well, the Bulldogs of Georgia ranked 2nd, by just a hair, to OhioSt, in that preseason
poll. Returning 17 starters from LY's 11-2 team, which finished with 7
straight wins, including a 41-10 blowout of Hawaii, in the Sugar Bowl, was
reason enough to elevate the 'Dawgs to such lofty heights. But injuries took
their toll, along with a schedule, which is 2nd to none, in terms of difficulty. At
season's end, Georgia ranked a respectable 27th in total "D", but check being
stung for 38 or more pts in 4 of their last 5 games, while allowing 252 RYpg in
those 4. Offensively, QB Stafford ranks 16th, nationally in passing, clicking at
61% (3,209 yds), with 22 TDs (9 INTs), throwing to the brilliant Massaquoi &
Green (combined 1,861 yds & 16 TDs). But RB Moreno is the heart-&-soul of
this "O" (1,338 yds, 16 TDs). Can the Spartans of Michigan State, who are
making their first January bowl in 9 years, corral that "O"? Well, MSU, which
is also making back-to-back bowl appearances for the first time in 11 years,
has had its moments, to be sure, mostly due to the exploits of RB Ringer, who
finished 4th, nationally, with 1,590 yds (19 TDs), & that includes 896 RYs in a
5-game stretch, to wind up a 6-game Spartan run, before being taken apart,
45-7, by OhioSt. And check a season-ending 49-18 loss at PennSt (557-322
yd deficit). QB Hoyer is barely above 50%, with just 9 TD passes & 8 picks.
So, it's Ringer, or nothing, apparently. We would love to grab the TD spot in
this one, but the 'Dawgs are a 10-4 ATS bowl play lately, covering by 23 in '07.
PROPHECY: GEORGIA 38 - Michigan State 20 RATING: 2
CINCINNATI (11-2) vs VIRGINIA TECH (9-4)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
8:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Cincinnati ... 43.4 .. 27-20 .. 20-17 . 121-124 .. 254- 211 .. - 5 . Va Tech
Va Tech ....... 44.6 .. 22-18 .. 17-14 . 170-107 .. 128- 170 .. +11 . by 3.6 Pts
ANALYSIS
Second straight trip to this bowl for the Hokies of Virginia Tech, which makes
them the first back-to-back Orange Bowl participants since Nebraska in '96 &
'97. And try 16 consecutive bowl campaigns for Frank Beamer's minions. But
the Gobblers have dropped 4 straight BCS games, with the ACC losing its last
8 BCS skirmishes. This year's Tech squad resembles '07's team, in relying on
its "D" to carry the day. Last year, the Hokies ranked 5th, 2nd, 5th in rushing,
total, scoring "D", recording 43 sacks, & 21 interceptions. This season, Tech
ranks 19th, 7th, 10th, in those columns, respectively, with 31 sacks & 16 picks.
So, as you can see, the Hokies are still a major defensive force, altho down a
bit from a year ago. Offensively, Tech checks in at #107, compared to an 85th
ranking in '07. So again, down a bit. The QBing duo of Taylor & Glennon has
combined for a meager 1,639 yds & just 5 TDs, with 11 INTs. But the Hokies
have outrushed 8 of their last 10 foes, including a 285 yd edge over Maryland,
& a 150-45 edge over BostonCollege, in the ACC title game. Oh, & check yet
another outstanding TO year (+11). For the Bearcats of Cincinnati, who are
participating in their 7th bowl in the last 9 years, their standing in that category
is a far cry from '07, when they ranked 6th in the country with a +16 TO edge.
As we constantly remind our subscribers, Cincy has been a steady force: only
39 pts from a 33-3 ATS run, with a pair of those near misses coming by 4 & ½
pt in bowl games, the past 2 years. QB Pike, with 2,168 yds (63%, 18 TDs, 7
INTs) leads an adequate, if not spectacular "O". The Bearcats' only stumbles
came vs mighty Oklahoma, & in a 6 TO loss to UConn. Cincy, by a whisker.
PROPHECY: CINCINNATI 20 - Virginia Tech 14 RATING: 6
BOWL SYSTEM
BUCKING THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS
One of the simplest & most successful bowl systems around, is to go against the
team on which the current Heisman Trophy winner plays. Let's see how this
simple & uncomplicated trend has fared over the last 34 bowl campaigns.
YEAR BOWL FOE OF HEISMAN WINNER LINE RESULT
1974 SO CALIF 18 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 17 + 6½ WINNER
1975 UCLA 23 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 10 + 14 WINNER
1976 GEORGIA 3 - Pittsburgh (Tony Dorsett) 27 + 3½ Loser
1977 NOTRE DAME 38 - Texas (Earl Campbell) 10 + 6½ WINNER
1978 NEBRASKA 24 - Oklahoma (Billy Sims) 31 + 11 WINNER
1979 OHIO STATE 16 - So Calif (Charles White) 17 + 7½ WINNER
1980 PITTSBURGH 37 - So Caro (George Rogers) 9 - 10 WINNER
1981 PENN STATE 26 - So Calif (Marcus Allen) 10 + 2 WINNER
1982 PENN STATE 27 - Georgia (Herschel Walker) 23 - 4 Tie
1983 MIAMI (FLA) 31 - Nebraska (Mike Rozier) 30 + 11½ WINNER
1984 HOUSTON 28 - Boston College (Doug Flutie) 45 + 6 Loser
1985 TEXAS A&M 36 - Auburn (Bo Jackson) 16 + 2½ WINNER
1986 PENN STATE 14 - Miami (Vinnie Testaverde) 10 + 7 WINNER
1987 TEXAS A&M 35 - Notre Dame (Tim Brown ) 10 + 4½ WINNER
1988 WYOMING 14 - Okla St (Barry Sanders) 62 + 2½ Loser
1989 Houston (Andre Ware) did not go to a bowl.
1990 TEXAS A&M 65 - Byu (Ty Detmer) 14 + 3 WINNER
1991 WASHINGTON 34 - Mich (Desmond Howard) 14 - 6½ WINNER
1992 ALABAMA 34 - Miami (Gino Torretta) 13 + 8 WINNER
1993 NEBRASKA 16 - Florida St (Charlie Ward) 18 + 15½ WINNER
1994 NOTRE DAME 24 - Colorado (R. Salaam) 41 + 7½ Loser
1995 TENNESSEE 20 - Ohio State (Eddie George) 14 - 4 WINNER
1996 FLORIDA ST 20 - Florida (Danny Wuerffel) 52 + 3½ Loser
1997 WASH ST 16 - Michigan (Charles Woodson) 21 + 6 WINNER
1998 MISSISSIPPI ST 11 - Texas (Ricky Williams) 38 + 6½ Loser
1999 STANFORD 9 - Wisconsin (Ron Dayne) 17 + 13½ WINNER
2000 OKLAHOMA 13 - Florida State (Chris Weinke) 2 + 10 WINNER
2001 MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 - Nebraska (Eric Crouch) 14 - 8½ WINNER
2002 IOWA 17 - Southern California (Carson Palmer) 38 + 5 Loser
2003 LOUISIANA ST 21 - Oklahoma (Jason White) 14 + 5½ WINNER
2004 OKLAHOMA 19 - So California (Matt Leinart) 55 + 2 Loser
2005 TEXAS 41 - So California (Reggie Bush) 38 + 7 WINNER
2006 FLORIDA 41 - Ohio State (Troy Smith) 14 + 4 WINNER
2007 MICHIGAN 41 - Florida (Tim Tebow) 35 + 10½ WINNER
RESULT: 24-8-1: 75% VS SPREAD