Newsletters 12/15-12/25

Search
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Power Sweep

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->4* Tampa 23-10
3* KC (+) 23-20 KC winning outright
2* Detroit (+) 28+ - 27 Detroit winning outright
2* Eagles 23-9

WEEK 17

3* Baltimore 27-0
2* Tampa 24-6
2* San Francisco 27-14

Over/Unders, Angles, System, WEEK 16 ONLY

3* Atlanta U46
3* Texans 044
3* Steelers U34
2* 49's 044
2* Eagles U41

Angles 3 Houston
3 Seattle
3 San Franciso

System Play is Seattle
<!-- / message -->
 

New member
Joined
Aug 22, 2005
Messages
158
Tokens
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK:

COLORADO ST
Has there been a more-formful pointspread performer in bowl games over the last decade than Fresno State? That’s doubtful,
because the Bulldogs have made themselves pretty easy to peg in the postseason. Simply, the best course of action has been to take
the underdog in Fresno’s bowl games since HC Pat Hill took over the program in 1997. In Hill’s eight bowl games, the “short” has
covered on each occasion (five times when the Bulldogs have been receiving points, three times when they’ve been laying points). And
for the December 20 New Mexico Bowl at Albuquerque, Fresno will be laying points, which is good news for opponent Colorado
State. Bowl favorite or not, the Bulldogs have been having enough trouble vs. the number lately, dropping 9 of their last 10 spread
decisions this season, and losing 8 of 9 overall vs. the number as chalk. Going back a bit further, Fresno’s overall spread record is
a decidedly subpar 10-28-1 its last 39 games on the board since late in the ‘05 campaign. As for the Rams, they at least closed the season
on an uptick, winning and covering their last two.

HAWAII
Bowl games and Notre Dame simply haven’t gone well together in recent years, at least as far as the Fighting Irish are concerned.
And we see no reason for that pattern to change when Notre Dame makes the long trek to Honolulu for a Christmas Eve date at Aloha
Stadium to face host Hawaii in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl. How tough has it been for the Irish in recent bowls? Try losses in their
last nine postseason appearances dating back to the ‘94 Cotton Bowl, and no covers in their last seven bowl games. And Notre
Dame hasn’t been faring very well against the number in any category lately for beleaguered HC Charlie Weis, standing a poor
15-25-1 vs. the number its last 41 games on the board. Meanwhile, the Warriors managed to turn their season around after a slow start,
covering 7 of their last 9 on the board in ‘08, including 4 of their last 5 at Aloha Stadium. Hawaii has also won and covered convincingly
in its last two appearances (2004 & ‘06) in the home-field bowl game.

LOUISIANA TECH
We’re not quite sure why Northern Illinois is favored in the December 28 Independence Bowl at Shreveport. Nearby Louisiana
Tech, the Huskies’ bowl foe, has played home/neutral games at Independence Stadium before, and will be making the short trip
from Ruston for the game. And even if Shreveport isn’t the Bulldogs’ own on-campus Joe Aillet Stadium, it’s close enough for us to
consider La Tech a home/neutral dog for this game. Which means we ought to pay serious attention to the fact the Bulldogs have
covered their last six chances as a home underdog. And there is certainly no reason whatsoever to fear NIU, which not only dropped
4 of its last 5 games vs. the number this season, but historically has been an underachiever as chalk (Huskies just 4-13 vs. number last
17 when favored).


NC STATE
In a perfect bowl world, Rutgers and North Carolina State wouldu be playing different opponents. The Scarlet Knights and Wolfpack closed the regular season as two of the hottest pointspread teams in the land, and in a sense it’s a shame that they’ve been pitted against one another in the December 29 Papajohns.com Bowl at Birmingham’s venerable Legion Field. But that’s no reason to shy away from supporting NC State, which has several tech factors stacked in its favor. Specifically, the extended pointspread success of HC Tom O’Brien, especially as an underdog. O’Brien’s recent teams with the Wolfpack and Boston College have covered 13 of their last 16 and 22 of their last 30 when receiving points, qualifying NC State as a featured College Coach as Underdog bowl recommendation. O’Brien is also an accomplished bowl coach, covering his last six postseason appearances while coaching BC. And O'Brien's Wolfpack has been growling vs. the number since midway through the ‘07 campaign, covering 14 of their last 18 on the board. Plus. don't forget that bowl underdogs (such as NCS) receiving 7 points or more have offered tremendous value over the years, including a sterling 52-24 spread mark this decade!

RICE
It’s not quite home, but it’s within the city limits of Houston. Which is good enough for explosive Rice as it prepares to face MAC
representative Western Michigan in the Texas Bowl December 30 at futuristic Reliant Stadium. In the city of Houston this season, the
Owls are a spotless 6-0 straight up, and a solid 5-1 vs. the line, the same as Rice’s spread mark as a favorite this year. Overall, the
Owls were a solid 8-4 vs. the number in ‘08, and now stand 11-5 vs. the points their last 16 games on the board. As for the Broncos,
they’ve covered just 5 of 13 games away from their home Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo since a year ago.

SOUTH CAROLINA
There’s been no question that SEC teams have performed better than those from any other conference in recent bowl action.
Over the past two seasons, SEC “bowlers” stand a noteworthy 12-5 vs. the number. And trying to uphold the honor of the league in
Tampa’s Outback Bowl on New Year’s Day will be combative South Carolina, an underdog against Big Ten rep Iowa. That underdog
role should appeal to the Gamecocks, a featured bowl Power Underdog recommendation and 8-4-1 vs. the line their last 13 as
the “short” away from Columbia since 2005, when HC Steve Spurrier arrived on the scene. As for the Hawkeyes, consider their
recent subpar performances as a favorite, just 7-15-2 vs. the number their last 24 as chalk.

OLE MISS
There are underdogs...and there are live underdogs. And we suggest that dangerous Ole Miss qualifies in the latter category as it prepares for a January 2 date at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas against Texas Tech. Certainly, the Rebels were “live” when getting points from the oddsmakers this season, covering all four of their chances as an underdog. Such dog success is nothing new for HC Houston Nutt, whose Arkansas and Ole Miss teams have now covered their last six as the “short”. Overall, the Rebels were a solid 8-2 vs. the number in 2008, including covers away from Oxford at Florida (also a straight-up win for Ole Miss!) and at Alabama, which almost became another victim of Houston Nutt’s squad. As for the Red Raiders, note they haven’t covered their last three bowl games, and despite their flash are only 20-24 vs. the number their last 44 games on the board.

BOWL TECHNICIAN'S CORNER...featuring the tech edge!
NAVY vs. WAKE FOREST (Eagle Bank)...Teams split the last two seasons, with Navy scoring 24-17 upset win TY. Deacs 4-6 as chalk
TY, 1-2 as chalk away from home. Navy covered its last 4 away from Annapolis TY, now 22-8 vs. number last 30 away from home. Mids
have also covered their last 4 bowls. Tech edge-Navy, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at COLORADO STATE (New Mexico)...FSU covered only 1 of its last 10 TY and was just 1-8 as chalk in ‘08.
Bulldogs just 10-28-1 vs. number last 39 on board overall. In Pat Hill’s 8 bowl games, the underdog has covered each time (FSU 5-0 as dog, 0-3 as chalk!). Tech edge-CSU, based on Fresno spread woes and dog bowl trend.

MEMPHIS vs. SO. FLORIDA (St. Petersburg)...Memphis 10-4 vs. number last 14 as double-digit dog. USF only 3-7 vs. line as chalk TY,
3-8 last 11 as favorite. Tech edge-Memphis, based on team trends. BYU vs. ARIZONA (Las Vegas)...Teams split meetings in ‘06-07,
although BYU covered both. Cougs no covers last 4 vs. non-MWC teams away from Provo. Cougs also no covers last 2 as dog. Cats
11-5 vs. number last 16 on board. Tech edge-slight to Arizona, based on team trends.

TROY vs. SOUTHERN MISS (New Orleans)...Troy quite an accomplished spread performer, now 20-7-1 vs. number last 28 on
board. Trojans also 15-6 vs. line 21 away from home, and 13-5-1 last 19 as chalk. USM closed with a flourish in ‘08, winning and covering its last 4, and has covered its last 2 bowls. This is also Eagles’ 7th straight bowl appearance! Tech edge-slight to Troy, based on
team trends.

NOTRE DAME at HAWAII (Sheraton Hawaii)...Irish only 1-4 vs. line last 5 TY, and Weis just 15-25-1 vs. number last 41 on board. Irish no covers last 7 bowls, and no SU wins last 9 bowls (last SU win was Jan. 1 ‘94 Cotton Bowl, 24-21 over Texas A&M with Holtz in charge!). Hawaii covered 7 of last 9 on board TY, and has won and covered last two appearances in Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (‘04 & ‘06). Tech edge-Hawaii, based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC VS. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (Motor City)...Third straight Motor City for CMU, 1-1 SU and 2-0 vs. line in
those games. Chips only 1-3-1 as chalk TY, and 0-2-1 as chalk away from Mt. Pleasant. Howard won and covered bowl LY and is 5-0 SU
and. vs line in bowls with Miami, Lvl, and FAU! Tech edge-FAU, based on team and Schnellenberger bowl trends.
WEST VIRGINIA vs. NORTH CAROLINA (Meineke Car Care)...WVU only 4-7 vs. line TY. Mounties also just 2-4 vs. line last
6 bowl games. Tech edge-UNC, based on WVU negatives. WISCONSIN vs. FLORIDA STATE (Champs Sports)...Badgers
only 3-8 vs. line away from Madison since LY, and just 3-6 as dog since LY (2-2 TY). Meanwhile, Bowden 3-0-1 vs. line his last 4 bowl
games. Tech edge-FSU, based on team trends.

MIAMI-FLORIDA vs. CAL (Emerald)...Cal a rather remarkable 7-0 SU and vs. line in Bay Area TY, 9-3 vs. line overall in ‘08. Shannon
just 8-15 vs. line since LY (4-7 TY) and failed to cover last 3 on board in ‘08, and just 3-4 as dog since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Cal, based on recent trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. LA TECH (Independence)...This was supposed to be an SEC vs. Big XII matchup! Shreveport is sort of a
home game for LT, which is 6-0 vs. points its last 6 as home (Ruston) dog. NIU no covers in 4 of its last 5 TY but has covered 5 of its last
6 away from DeKalb. Yet Huskies just 2-4 as chalk TY, 4-13 last 17 in role. Tech edge-LT, based on team trends.

NC STATE vs. RUTGERS (Papajohns.com)...Both very hot! NCS on 7-game spread win streak, and has won its last 4 outright as a dog!
Wolfpack on 14-4 spread run since mid ‘07 and O’Brien now 13-3 vs. number last 16 as dog. O’Brien teams at BC & NCS now 22-8 their
last 30 as dog! Rutgers did end season on uptick with 8 straight covers, and Schiano has covered last 3 years in bowls. O’Brien,
however, won and covered his last 6 bowl appearances with BC! Tech edge-NCS, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN vs. MISSOURI (Alamo)...Mizzou covered only 3 of last 10 TY and only 1 of last 5 away from home. Pinkel, however, has covered his last 3 bowl games. NU was 4-2 vs. line as dog TY and covered all 3 tries as a dog away from Evanston in ‘08. Tech edge-Northwestern, based on team trends.

NEVADA vs. MARYLAND (Roady’s Humanitarian)...If Nevada favored note 21-11 chalk mark under Ault (3-3 TY) since returning
as coach in ‘04. Pack has covered last two trips to blue carpet although it lost both of those games close (21-20 vs. Miami-Fla. in ‘06
Humanitarian, and 69-67 in multiple OTs vs. Boise State LY). Ralph just 3-9 vs. spread his last 12 away from Byrd Stadium (1-4 TY). Tech edge-Nevada, based on team trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. RICE (Texas)...Rice 6-0 SU and 5-1 vs. line within city limits of Houston TY! Owls also 5-1 as chalk in ‘08. Rice still a solid 8-4 vs. spread TY, and 11-5 vs. number last 16 on board since late ‘07. WMU only 5-7-1 vs. number away from Kalamazoo since LY. Tech edge-Rice, based on team trends.

OREGON vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (Holiday)...Bellotti 1-2 vs. line as dog TY but solid 15-8 vs. line in role since ‘03. Underdog team has covered in 8 of Oregon’s last 9 bowl games. Gundy, however, has won and covered last 2 bowl games. OSU dropped last 3 spread decisions TY after covering first 8 on board. OSU also 8-1 last 9 as chalk. Tech edge-slight to Oregon, based on team trends.

AIR FORCE vs. HOUSTON (Armed Forces)...Rematch of AFA’s 31-28 win Sept. 13 in a game that was moved to SMU’s stadium in
Dallas. Now these teams get to play in Fort Worth! Falcs failed to cover last 2 as dog TY after covering first 3 as short. Calhoun 16-7 vs. line since taking over at AFA LY. Houston 0-6 vs. line away from Robertson Stadium TY, now no covers last 9 away from home (and
no covers last 6 as chalk away from home)! Tech edge-AFA, based on team trends.

PITT vs. OREGON STATE (Sun)...Mike Riley 4-0 SU, 3-1 vs. line in bowls with OSU since ‘03. Riley also 22-9-1 vs. spread last 32 as chalk. ‘Stache, however, is 9-3 vs. line last 12 as dog, and 8-3 vs. line away last 2 years. Tech edge-slight to Pitt, based on dog trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE vs. VANDERBILT (Music City)...Dores were 6-2 as dog TY but covered just 1 of last 5 on board in ‘08. Bobby
Johnson 19-8 vs. number last 27 as dog away from Vanderbilt Stadium. First Dore bowl game since 1982 All-American Bowl in
Birmingham, a 36-28 loss vs. Air Force! BC just 1-8 vs. number last 9 laying points away from home (1-2 TY), and Eagles no covers last 4 postseason games (0-2 in ACC title, 0-2 in bowls since ‘05) despite winning SU last 8 bowls. Tech edge-Vandy, based on team trends.

MINNESOTA vs. KANSAS (Insight)...KU only 3-3 as chalk in ’08 after 12-1 mark previous 13 in role. Mangino has won and covered
last 2 bowls, and 7-1 vs. number last 8 vs. non-Big XII. During Glen Mason era, Gophers’ last 4 bowl games were all decided by 4 or
fewer. Minnesota lost last 4 games SU this season and covered just 1 of last 4 on board after hot start. Gophers were 4-1 as dog TY,
however. Tech edge-slight to Kansas, based on team trends.

LSU vs. GEORGIA TECH (Chick fil-A)...LSU just 2-9 vs. line TY and just 4-16-2 against spread last 22 on board. Les Miles, however,
has won and covered bowls the last 3 years with Tigers, and LSU 0-1 in rare dog role the past two years. Paul Johnson covered his
last 3 bowls with Navy (remember, he didn’t coach LY’s Navy bowl game) and GT solid 8-2 vs. line in ‘08. His Navy & GT teams are 44-23-1 vs. line last 68 games on board! Tech edge-GT, based on team trends.

IOWA vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (Outback)...Spurrier 8-4-1 vs. line as dog away from Columbia since arriving at SC in ‘05. Iowa 3-3 as
chalk TY but only 7-15-2 last 24 in role. Tech edge-South Carolina, based on team trends.

CLEMSON vs. NEBRASKA (Gator)...Rematch of fabled ‘82 Orange Bowl, when Clemson with Homer Jordan at QB knocked off
Nebraska 22-15 to claim ‘81 national title! Dabo won last 3 and covered 4 of last 5 on board TY, although note Tigers didn’t cover their last 3 bowls with Tommy Bowden as coach. Bo Pelini 1-2 as dog TY but did cover 3 of 4 as visitor. Huskers just 3-8 their last 11 as dog dating to the Callahan years. Tech edge-slight to Clemson, based on recent Dabo trends.

MICHIGAN STATE vs. GEORGIA (Capital One)...Spartans 0-3 as dog TY after 5-0-1 mark in role last season. But Georgia failed to cover its last 4 and 7 of its last 8 on board TY, also no covers last 6 as chalk in ‘08. Richt 5-1 SU, 4-2 vs. line last 6 bowls. Tech edge-slight to MSU, based on team trends.


PENN STATE vs. SOUTHERN CAL (Rose)...Shades 23-11 vs. line in bowl games during long career. Pete 5-1 SU and vs. line last 6 bowls, but SC only 1-4 its last 5 laying points away from Coliseum TY, and 9-13 last 22 in role. Tech edge-Penn State, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH vs. CINCINNATI (Orange)...Beamer 4-2 vs. line as dog away from Blacksburg TY, also 10-3 in role since ‘04. Beamer also 23-9 vs. spread last 32 away from Blacksburg. Dog team is 5-1 vs. number last 6 Hokie bowl games. These teams met as recently as ‘06, with VT winning 29-13 at Blacksburg but failing to cover huge number. Bearcats no covers last 2 bowl games (both with Kelly as coach) and Cincy only 3-4 vs. line away from home TY. Tech edge-Beamer, based on team trends.

OLE MISS vs. TEXAS TECH (Cotton)...Leach no covers last 3 bowls (won last 2 by 3 points each, and lost the previous game by
exactly 3 points as well), and he’s 3-5 vs. line in bowls since taking over TT in 2000. Leach only 20-24 overall vs. line since ‘05. Rebs
covered last 4 TY and were 8-2 vs. number for Houston Nutt, including 4-0 as dog. Nutt’s teams have covered their last 6 as dog overall!
Tech edge-Ole Miss, based on team trends.

EAST CAROLINA vs. KENTUCKY (Liberty)...ECU began to heat up at the end of the season, winning and covering last two after
dropping 8 of previous 9 vs. number. Skip, however, still 17-10 vs. line away from Greenville since ‘05. Rich Brooks only 1 cover in
previous bowl games (two years ago in Music City), but UK is 6-1-1 vs. line last 8 against non-SEC opposition. Tech edge-slight to
UK, based on team trends.

UTAH vs. ALABAMA (Sugar)...Utah has won its last 7 bowl games (5-2 vs. line in those), with its last bowl loss coming in the 1996
Copper Bowl vs. Wisconsin. Kyle Whittingham 3-0 SU in bowls, and his Utes are 9-4 vs. line as dog since ‘05. Nick 9-4 vs. line TY and
had covered 5 straight in '08 prior to SEC title game loss vs. Florida. Saban only 3-5 vs. line in career in bowls, however. Tech edge-
Utah, based on team trends.

BUFFALO vs. UCONN (International)...Buffalo 7-0 vs. line as dog this season! Bulls have now covered their last 9 as dog for Turner Gill! All of those 9 on the road as well, giving Bulls 9 straight covers away from home. UConn only 4-9 vs. line last 13 on board, 2-7 last 9 away from the Rentsch. This year’s 4-7 Huskies spread mark was also their worst under Edsall. Tech edge-Buffalo, based on team trends.

OHIO STATE vs. TEXAS (Fiesta)...These programs are familiar with one another after hookups in 2005 & ‘06, games in which the
(short-priced) road underdog won both times. Mack has won his last 4 bowl games and covered as chalk at Holiday LY vs. Arizona State,
but he’s still just 2-6 as bowl chalk with Horns. Texas 5-1 vs. line last 6 away from Austin, however. Tressel no wins or covers last 2 in
bowls (both in BCS title games) after covering previous 4 bowls. Buckeyes did cover last 4 on road TY and are 16-5 vs. spread last
21 away from Columbus. OSU 0-2 in rare dog roles the past two years. Tech edge-slight to OSU, based on team trends.

BALL STATE vs. TULSA (GMAC)...Both cooled a bit at the end of the season (Tulsa 1-4 vs. line last 5, Ball State 1-2-1 last 4). Note Todd Graham teams 10-5 vs. line as dog the last 3 years (but no record as short TY with Tulsa). Tech edge-slight to Tulsa, based on team trends.

FLORIDA vs. OKLAHOMA (BCS Championship)...Seldom have we seen two title game teams also dominate vs. the spread as these
two (Florida 11-1 vs. number, OU 10-2 vs. points). But Bob Stoops has struggled in bowls lately, losing and failing to cover 4 of last 5.
Combined with no covers last 4 vs. Texas and he is no longer “Big Game Bob” these days. Urban Meyer 4-1 SU and vs. line in bowls,
and Gators now 21-5 vs. spread last 26 on board. Tech edge-Florida, based on team trends.

BOWL TRENDS...BOWL TRENDS...BOWL TRENDS...BOWL TRENDS

BOWL FAVORITES/UNDERDOGS
Folks, we're talking about a serious pattern here. Bowl underdogs receiving 7 points or more continued to overachieve last year, covering 6 of 9 postseason opportunities. That marked the tenth straight season that 7-point or more bowl dogs recorded a winnning mark. And the successes are usually quite pronounced; indeed, since 2000, bowl dogs receiving 7 or more have covered an eye-opening 52 of 76 chances, a cool 68% winning pace! But the success of the bigger postseason underdogs has not translated into the shorter-priced bowl dogs, as in 2007 those receiving 3 points or fewer dropped 5 of 7 spread decisions, just as they had done in 2006. In the seven
postseasons since 2001, those short-priced bowl dogs have finished with a winning mark only once (2004), recording an overall 20-34 mark. Yet over the past 10 seasons, only in two years have the bowl favorites outperformed the bowl dogs, as the "short" holds a solid 143-114 edge vs. the number since 1998. Proceed with caution, however, as throghout the decades we've seen bowl underdogs and favorites both experience extended success streaks that spanned several seasons. The dogs were certainly providing more value between 1974-87, recording a 112-77 mark vs. the points in those years. Bowl chalk has had its run, too, with postseason favroties not experiencing a losing bowl season between 1992-97, and recording a stellar 44-27 spread mark from '94-97. But it's the bigger bowl underdogs (those getting 7 points or more) that continue to amaze. Bowl dogs receiving between 7-13 1/2 points have covered 54 of 79 chances since 1999; since 1974, they stand 110-67 vs. the line. When adding in the success of the biggest bowl underdogs (those teams receiving 14 points or more), the 7-point or more bowl dogs stand 127-77 since '74, a nifty 62.3% winning mark. And, remember, those are numbers accumulated over a 34-season span! Consistency of any pointspread trend over such an extended period of time is
rare. Many believe there is just something inherent about the dynamics of bowl matchups that makes the bigger dogs an attractive proposition, much like the Power Underdogs charted over the years that have generally fared well vs. the number. Although the postseason pool has been diluted in recent seasons, almost every bowl underdog still has some credentials, even the bigger bowl
dogs. When challenged, these teams are capable of putting up a solid effort. And when the favored team has no real motivation for a blowout win, especially with poll considerations no factor except in the BCS title game, the recipe for big underdog success in undeniable. Refining a bit further, pre-New Year's bowl dogs have also posted some occasionally startling performances over the years (such as a 37-15 mark between 2000-02). And they've continued to produce winning, if not spectacular, numbers (44-35 the past four seasons). Many observers believe there's a viable argument for those pre-New Year’s bowl dogs. Keep in mind that polls and rankings are rarely considerations in such games. Certain pre-New Year’s bowls have featured unmistakable dog success in recent years, most notably the Sun (dog 15-2-2 last 19), Peach/Chick-fil-A (12-3 last 15) and Independence (13-7 last 20). On the other hand, dynamics in New Year’s (and after) bowls are often different. Indeed, favorites have often had the better of it in these bowls over the years. Note that in
“national title” Bowl Alliance or BCS games since the 1995 season, only four times has a contest been decided by fewer than 14 points

BOWL UNDERDOGS SINCE 1974
............1-3 3½-6½ 7-13½ 14-over TOTAL
1974-79 6-10 15-13 17-8 2-1 40-32
1980-89 32-26 32-28 17-8 4-2 85-64
1990 .....2-1 2-3 4-2 1-0 9-6
1991..... 3-2 4-2 1-3 1-0 9-7
1992..... 1-4 4-2 2-3 0-0 7-9
1993..... 1-2 2-4 3-2 3-1 9-9
1994..... 3-3 2-3 1-4 0-1 6-11
1995..... 2-4 5-4 1-1 0-0 8-9
1996..... 2-2 3-4 2-2 1-1 8-9
1997..... 0-4 2-6 3-5 0-0 5-15
1998..... 2-2 4-4 4-3 2-0 12-9
1999..... 8-1 5-5 2-1 1-0 16-7
2000..... 8-1 4-2 5-3 0-1 17-7
2001..... 3-6 6-3 4-1 0-1 13-11
2002..... 2-3 3-4 9-5 1-0 15-12
2003..... 3-7 4-3 5-4 0-1 12-15
2004..... 5-3 7-6 5-1 0-1 17-11
2005..... 3-5 2-4 10-1 1-0 16-10
2006..... 2-5 6-4 8-6 0-0 16-15
2007..... 2-5 6-9 6-3 0-0 14-17

2000-2007 28-35 32-35 52-24 3-4 115-98
TOTALS ‘74-’07 92-96 118-113 110-67 17-10 335-286

CONFERENCE BOWL POINTSPREAD TABLES
Although conference bowl pointspread performances don’t always carry over from year to year (indeed, they've been known to reverse themselves completely), they remain part of the bowl handicapping puzzle. With that in mind, we're providing a comprehensive review of how respective conferences have performed vs. the pointspread in postseason play since the early '70s, with added emphasis on results recorded in recent campaigns. ACC...It's been a tough couple of years for the ACC, which dropped 5 of 6 spread decisions last postseason and 5 of 8 the year before. Those were the league's first sub-.500 records vs. the line in bowl action since 2000. From 2001-05, loop teams were a combined 21-11 vs. the number in bowls. This season—Wake Forest (Eagle Bank), North Carolina (Meineke Car Care), Florida
State (Champs Sports), Miami-Florida (Emerald), NC State (Papajohns.com), Maryland (Roady's Humanitarian), Boston College (Music City), Georgia Tech (Chick-fil-A), Clemson (Gator), Virginia Tech (Orange). Big East...The loop, which once relied upon Miami-Florida (since departed for ACC) to provide its bowl glitz, has continued to hold its own even without the Canes, Virginia Tech, and Boston College, generally hanging around the .500 mark since, including last year's 2-2. Note Rutgers' 3-0 spread mark its last three bowl appearances. This season—South Florida (St.Petersburg), West Virginia (Meineke Car Care), Rutgers (Papajohns.com), Pittsburgh (Sun),
Cincinnati (Orange), UConn (International). Big Ten... Big Ten bowl spread performance has fluctuated, sometimes wildly, from year to year, without back-to-back winning (or losing) postseason marks since 1999-2000, when it went sub-.500 two years running. Last year's mark was 3-5...does that mean we can expect a winning performance this season? Note that Northwestern makes a rare bowl appearance this year (only its fourth since 1949!), and Michigan isn't "bowling" for the first time since 1974, when the Big Ten's Rose Bowl-only rule (and that year it was Ohio State) kept one of Bo Schembechler's best Wolverine teams at home. This season—Wisconsin (Champs Sports), Northwestern (Alamo), Minnesota (Insight), Iowa (Outback), Michigan State (Capital One), Penn State (Rose), Ohio State (Fiesta). Big XII...After swinging wildly the previous two seasons (from a 5-1 spread mark in '05 to a subpar 2-6 performance in '06), things were a little calmer for Big XII "bowlers" last season, splitting 8 games vs. the number. The league has had more than a few clinker bowl campaigns in recent memory (besides that 2-6 mark in '06, note how Big XII teams also covered only 4 of 15 bowl chances in 2003-04). 2008, however, looks to be the league's strongest year in memory, so stay tuned for the bowls. Since the league was officially formed
in '96 (an amalgamation of the old Big 8 with four former SWC schools), Big XII teams stand only 37-49 vs. the line in postseason play, continuing a trend from the old Big Eight, which was also a notorious bowl underachiever. This season—Missouri (Alamo), Oklahoma State (Holiday), Kansas (Insight), Nebraska (Gator), Texas Tech (Cotton), Texas (Fiesta), Oklahoma (BCS Championship).
Conference USA...C-USA has undergone numerous facelifts in its brief but colorful history, providing a home for various former independents and members of other non-BCS leagues. Still, no matter the composition of the conference, it remains a rather undistinguished bowl performer, recording backto-back 3-3 spread marks in the postseason. This season—Memphis (St. Petersburg), Southern Miss (New Orleans), Rice (Texas), East Carolina (Liberty), Tulsa (GMAC). Mountain West...Usually a middling bowl performer since disassociating itself with members of “old” WAC after ’98 campaign, the MWC slid back to a 2-3 mark last season after a string of positive results (6-3 vs. the line the previous three postseasons). The loop, however, gets its second BCS at-large qualifier in four years, as another undefeated Utah team will appear in the Sugar Bowl after winning the Fiesta Bowl four years ago. This season—Colorado State (New Mexico), BYU (Las Vegas), TCU (Poinsettia), Air Force (Armed Forces), Utah (Sugar). .Pacific 10...Last year marked a real recovery for the Pac-10, which covered 5 of 6 bowl opportunities after dropping 4 of 6 vs. the line in 2006 and 1 of 4
in '05. Indeed, the league has mostly underachieved since the early '90s (24-32 from '92-02, and now 3-7 in '05-06). This season—Arizona (Las Vegas), Cal (Emerald), Oregon (Holiday), Oregon State (Sun), Southern Cal (Rose). Southeastern...TheSEC has a lot to live up to this postseason after covering 6 of 8 bowl chances in '07, and 6 of 9 in '06. Indeed, with the exception of a particularly rough 2004 bowl season (1-5 vs. number), SEC teams are 38-24 vs. the line in bowls since '99, and, even including 2004, a solid 63-45 vs. the lline in postseason since 1993. Interestingly, normal "bowlers" Tennessee and Auburn are staying home this postseason, while Vanderbilt makes its first postseasn appearance since 1982! This season—Vanderbilt (Music City), LSU (Chick fil-A), South Carolina (Outback), Georgia (Capital One), Ole Miss (Cotton), Kentucky (Liberty), Alabama (Sugar), Florida (BCS Championship). WAC...So much for continuing thre momentum...after covering all four bowl chances during an uplifting 2006 bowl campaign, WAC teams dropped three of four spread decisions in last year's bowl action. Last year, however, was a bit more indicative of the loop's postseason performances this decade, which had mostly been subpar. This season—Fresno State (New Mexico), Boise State (Poinsettia),Hawaii (Sheraton Hawaii), Louisiana Tech (Independence), Nevada (Roady's Humanitarian). Independents, MAC & others...A once-robust collection of Independents
has basically dwindled to a few, with Notre Dame (Sun) and Navy (Poinsettia) the only "bowlers" in 2008. Interestingly, their collective numbers are still the best for the most-extended periods of measurement, although that's nothing more than a curiosity these days, with almost all indies having joined a conference in the last 20 years. Big West & MAC champs met annually from 1981 thru ’96 in California/California Raisin (thru ’91) and Las Vegas (‘92-96) Bowls. Big West was 8-6 vs. line in bowls from ‘87-2000 but no longer competes in football, its old gridiron members now in the WAC and Sun Belt. MAC teams are 17-14 vs. the line since '87 and has a record five teams in bowl action this season— Central Michigan (Motor City), Northern Illinois (Independence), Western Michigan (Texas), Buffalo (International), and Ball State (GMAC). The Sun Belt stands 4-5 vs. the line in postseason since 2001, and this year sends Troy (New Orleans) and Florida Atlantic (Motor City) to the postseason.
 

New member
Joined
Aug 22, 2005
Messages
158
Tokens
KEVIN O’NEILL’S
THE MAX
The Maximum Profit Football Weekly
• Volume 9 Issue 18 December 18th-22nd, 2008 •

SELECTIONS: December 18th-22nd, 2008

NFL

Thursday, December 18h, 2008

@Jaguars (+6½) over Colts
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
In their 31-21 win over the toothless Lions the Colts
became the first team in NFL history to reel off a 7+ game
winning streak in 6 consecutive seasons. Impressive on its
face, but the Colts are just 3-3-1 ATS over that streak, and
not one of the last 5 wins have come over opponents with
a combined record of 19-49-1. Indy is just 5-4-1 ATS in
their 10 wins as seven of those have come by less than the
touchdown Jacksonville is receiving here. And the
undermanned Lions played the Colts well despite the
travails of QB Dan Orlovsky, who made his return to the
lineup after just 4 weeks off recuperating a throwing hand
with multiple fractures.

I love playing against high scoring teams, and my database
pops a negative 32-63 ATS system based on the Colts last
2 offensive outputs of 31 and 35 points. These public
darlings have failed to cover in this spot by an average of 6
points per game and this spot is 0-2 in 2008.

As we reach the end of the season my database contains a
number of special situations for the occasion. The Colts will
finish up the 2008 campaign at home, and therefore apply
to a negative 7-30 ATS "last game lookahead" play. This
play works particularly well when our team is on an
extended winning streak. These teams are not only 0-6
ATS when entering Game 15 off four or more wins, but
have won straight up only once in that span despite an
average price of -9. Let's not forget the Jaguars either. Off
their 20-16 upset win over Green Bay they qualify in a 25-6
ATS "bad team off a win" system that won its only 2008
appearance on Cincinnati in their infamous 13-13 tie
against the Eagles.

The Colts looked disinterested against the 0-14 Lions, and
while they will not look past a 4-9 Jags outfit that beat
them 23-21 back in the third game of the season. But the
Colts have to work a bit too hard to score most of their
points. Detroit has by far the worst secondary in the league
and Peyton Manning could only go up top successfully once
all game. Indy will be able to move the chains on
Jacksonville, but with a diminished quick strike ability and a
much sexier game at home against the Titans awaiting
them next week I expect the Colts to stub their toe just
enough to let the Jags stay with them until the end.
Indianapolis by 1

Sunday, December 21st, 2008

@Chiefs (+4) over Dolphins
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Here we have a late season matchup between two teams
that have really picked up their level of play as the season
has progressed, albeit to different levels of success. Miami
is the league’s true surprise this season under new HC
Tony Sparano, as they’ve already won 8 more games than
they did last season, and are in a dogfight for the AFC
East. The Chiefs on the other hand, while only 2-11, have
5 losses to playoff contenders by 7 or less point in the
second half of the season, after losing 4 of their first 6
games by 15 or more points. KC did not trail at the half in
any of those 5 tough losses, leading in the last two
minutes of 3 of them, and missing a two point conversion
attempt that would have taken a lead with :29 left in
another. They have continued to play hard despite their
record, and this game should be no different. Yes, they
are off of a true heartbreaker against San Diego this past
weekend, but they’ve had so many of these tough losses, I
doubt they will feel sorry themselves and come out flat
here in their last home game.

Miami’s success this season has not been a fluke, as they
are solid on both sides of the ball, showing positive net
yards per play number in both yards per pass and yards
per rush. However, as many emerging teams often do,
they’ve struggled in the role of favorite. They are 1-6 ATS
as chalk this season, and this is only the 4th time in 17 road
games that they have been handicapped at better than +3.
In their only game as road chalk during that stint, they
squeaked out a 4 point win against a St. Louis team that
besides their 3 point home loss to equally hapless Seattle
this past week, has not come within 19 points of an
opponent in any other of their last 7 games. There’s a big
difference between the hunter and the hunted in this
league, and although they’ve hung on for dear life in some
wins recently against mediocre opposition, they are not
good or experienced enough to pull away. With the
pressure continuing to mount, it will be interesting to see
how the young Dolphins perform in their last two games,
both of which are on the road.

Arrowhead Stadium has long been one of the league’s
strongest home fields, and the Chiefs now stand 27-7 ATS
as a home underdog against an opponent off of a win.
They are playing their last home game here, and the crowd
will be behind them to the fullest. KC has shown a lot of
offensive spunk lately, having scored 19 or more in 8
straight games, and will be hard to shake here, having
played similar caliber opponents extremely close for two
months now. Will gladly take points here against a Miami
team that has struggled to put away other mid-tier or weak
opposition, and is unfamiliar territory as a road favorite in a
playoff race. Kansas City by 3

Falcons (+3½, -120) over @Vikings
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
The Vikings crushed the Cardinals Sunday, jumping out to
a 21-0 first quarter lead and coasting 35-14. Tarvaris
Jackson filled in for Gus Ferotte and tossed 4 TD passes.
But we’re not buying what the Vikings are selling.
Minnesota has gotten back into the playoff hunt by
catching teams in letdowns and other bad situations. The
Cardinals were certainly such an outfit. They had clinched
their first divisional title in eons the previous week and
obviously felt that they had little to play for. The big early
deficit took them out of their game, and Arizona passed
the ball on 50 of 57 plays. That’s right, only 7 running
plays. I can’t remember a more imbalanced run/pass
differential in the NFL. Additionally, the Cardinals just
really aren’t that good. And they realize that themselves.
Cardinals DE Darnell Dockett after the big loss Sunday
said, "I'll tell you how it is. We play in a division that's
weak . . . and we're running out of excuses."

While discounting the Vikings win on Sunday, the fact that
Atlanta found a way to win was impressive. Atlanta QB
Matt Ryan had a horrible game. Both of his interceptions
killed productive drives and a 3rd quarter certain TD was
first called a TD but reversed to a turnover. Teams don’t
win often with a 3-1-turnover disadvantage. The fact that
Atlanta found a way to get things done in overtime despite
the drive-killing nature of the interceptions was impressive.
Vikings monster nose tackle Pat Williams is out of this
game with a shoulder injury, which hurts the Vikes run
defense considerably. On the other side of the ball,
Minnesota can run, but isn’t the greatest passing team.
While the Falcons run defense has been vulnerable,
replacing linebacker Michael Boley with Coy Wire in nonpassing
situations helped shore up the run D. Due to a
lack of respect for the Vikings passing attack, and the
presence of Adrian Peterson, the Falcons D will be able to
put more focus on the run.

The Falcons overcame a lot of mistakes, while the Vikings
had everything their way. With either Ferotte or Jackson at
quarterback for coach Brad Childress in a legitimately big
game, we’ll look for Minnesota to make some key mistakes
in crunch time while Matt Ryan bounces back against a
pass defense that is much more vulnerable than the stellar
Tampa group he faced on Sunday. Falcons by 3.

@Seahawks (+5) over Jets
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
The Jets should put a nice Christmas card in the mail for
Buffalo head coach Dick Jauron. With just about 2 minutes
to play in the game, the Bills had a 2nd and 5 with a chance
to put the game on ice with one more first down. Running
back Marshawn Lynch was having a monster game for
Buffalo. He ran for 127 yards on 21 carries, and there was
no question he would be responsible for picking up the last
five yards and sealing a nice win for the Bills. But, after a
Jets timeout, Buffalo called one of the most idiotic plays
I’ve even seen. Instead of handing the ball off to Lynch,
they asked J.P. Losman to roll out and throw the ball. And
if you didn’t see what happened, I’m sure you know where
this is heading. Losman fumbled, and Shaun Ellis of the
Jets picked it up and returned it for the game-winning
touchdown. That was the last thing the Bills needed
because their ship was already sinking. Jauron took the
fall as he said he overruled offensive coordinator Turk
Schonert on that play. Regardless of who called the play,
it was a bonehead mistake that handed the Jets a very
fortunate win.

We had the Bills in that game, and got the spread cover.
It was purely a fade of the Jets, and we’ll play against
them once again here for all the same reasons. Brett
Favre did not play good for a third consecutive game. He
completed only 56.7% (17-30) of his passes for 207 yards.
He also threw two bad interceptions with one resulting in
seven points for the Bills. As we mentioned last week,
Favre seems to be playing old. And he admitted to such
after the game: “Maybe I don’t have the arm I once had,”
he said. “I don’t know.” Again, there is no deep threat
capability for the Jets right now, which prevents this team
from stretching out leads. Their defense is also getting
carved up. Over their last five games, the Jets are
allowing 391 yards per game and 25.8 points per game
which is 60 yards and almost 4 points more per game than
their seasonal average. That’s a downward trend that says
to take the points no matter who the Jets’ opponent is.

Seattle hasn’t quit on the season. For a team that has
made the playoffs for five straight years, you’d think with
just three wins on the year they would have packed it in
already. But that’s not the case at all. The Seahawks have
played competitive football over the last month. In their
most recent six games, the Seahawks won just one game,
which came last week at St Louis. But the five losses came
by 2, 6, 3, 25, and 3 points. Take out the blowout loss at
Dallas, and five of the last six Seattle games were decided
by 6 points or less. They’ve gone 4-2 against the spread in
those games, and going back a little further shows the
Seahawks are 6-3 to the number their last nine ballgames.
This is also a good set-up and situation for them. Off the
road win, they should carry a little momentum into their
last home game of the year. They haven’t won at home
since September 21st, and with this being the Jets second
West coast road trip in the last three weeks, look for
Seattle to upset a tired and declining Jets team.
Seahawks by 3.

@Bucs (-3½) over Chargers
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
It looks like Jeff Garcia will be ready to go in this one after
being a late scratch on Sunday. This is a critical game for
both teams, and especially for the Bucs. After a pair of
losses, Tampa desperately needs a win to have a shot at
the postseason. Though both have need, the Bucs are in a
much better spot, at home off of consecutive road losses.
The Chargers are traveling off of a lucky win, not the most
positive NFL situation.

With less than five minutes left in their game in Kansas
City, the Chargers had only 234 yards against the sieve-like
Chiefs defense. They got the miracle sequence…TD drive,
onside kick, TD drive, but other than the very end it was
not an impressive performance by the Chargers. And it’s
just another one of a string of unimpressive performances.
If the Chargers win here, and the Broncos lose at home to
the Bills, then the final week’s Chargers/Broncos game
turns into a divisional championship affair. But the
Chargers just aren’t all that good. They are 6-8 and two
of those wins were by 1 point over 2-12 Kansas City.
In his final days as defensive coordinator, expect Bucs
defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin to burn the midnight oil
after getting torched on the ground in consecutive weeks
by divisional foes Carolina and Atlanta. Getting back both
starting defensive tackles would certainly help matters.
Fortunately for Kiffin, LaDanian Tomlinson, who went for
only 39 yards on 15 carries in Kansas City, is a shell of his
former self. Tomlinson has surpassed 100 yards only twice
all year, with those totals being 105 and 106 yards. In his
last three games, Tomlinson has only 54 carries for only
154 yards. He has exceeded 4.0 yards per carry in a
game only three times all year. And with the Chargers not
in a position to take advantage of the Bucs run defense,
they’ll have to throw the ball. And the Bucs pass defense
is excellent; nabbing 21 interceptions to only 17 opponents
TD passes. Opposing quarterbacks have a miniscule 69.4
passer rating against them. The Bucs defense is banged
up. Jermaine Phillips is out. Derrick Brooks, who has
never missed a game since joining Tampa in 1995, has rib
issues. Check the Tampa injury report this week. But even
if the injury news is not the best, Tampa should offer a
peak performance. After consecutive losses, it is
desperation time for the Bucs. With their quarterback back
in the lineup, look for them to bounce back strong against
a flawed Chargers team that’s fortunate to even be in
playoff consideration. Bucs by 10.
 

New member
Joined
Aug 22, 2005
Messages
158
Tokens
POINTWISE COLLEGE BOWLS
Bowls are rated 1 through 6, with 1-4 being Key Releases (1 being the highest rating). Games rated "5" are considered "best of the rest". Games rated "6" are light opinions only.

Dec. 20
Eagle Bank Bowl (Washington, D.C.)
Navy (+) 27, Wake Forest 24
Rating--6

St. Petersburg Bowl (St. Pete, FL)
South Florida 30, Memphis (+) 21
Rating--6

New Mexico Bowl (Albuquerque)
Fresno State 31, Colorado State 24
Rating--6

Las Vegas Bowl (Sin City)
Arizona 38, Byu 27
Rating--3

Dec. 21
New Orleans Bowl (NOLA)
Southern Miss (+) 31, Troy 30
Rating--5

Dec. 23
Pointsettia Bowl (San Diego)
TCU 24, Boise State 17
Rating--2


Dec. 24
Hawaii Bowl (Honolulu)
Hawaii 30, Notre Dame 20
Rating--4

Dec. 26
Motor City Bowl (Detroit)
Central Michigan 38, Florida Atlantic 27
Rating--5

Dec. 27
Meineke Bowl (Charlotte, NC)
West Virginia 27, North Carolina 17
Rating--2

Emerald Bowl (San Francisco)
California 33, Miami (FL) 17
Rating--1

Champs Sports Bowl (Orlando)
Wisconsin (+) 27, Florida State 24
Rating--2

Dec. 28
Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA)
Louisiana Tech 19, Northern Illinois 16
Rating--6
 

New member
Joined
Aug 22, 2005
Messages
158
Tokens
THE SPORTS REPORTER

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 21 NEW ORLEANS BOWL Louisiana Superdome -- New Orleans, LA
BEST BET TROY over SOUTHERN MISS by 17
The first thing that stands out about this match-up: 37.5 quarterback sacks by Troy’s defense, vs. only 15 QB sacks by the Southern Miss defense. The next thing that stands out about this match-up: Only 8.5 sacks allowed by Troy’s offensive line, vs. 26 sacks allowed by Southern Miss’ offense. Now that our community is the first to project and envision the likelihood of a 3-hour, down-and-distance disparity that favors Troy, what else is there to like? How about the fact that when current Southern Miss head coach Larry Fedora was piloting the offense at Oklahoma State last season and traveled into Troy, the Trojans shut it down like it was one of those inefficient GM plants? As far as Troy’s planning and plotting for the athletes on Fedora’s Year One Southern Miss units is concerned, Troy defensive ends coach Randy Butler was “one of them” for 17 seasons as the longest-tenured member of Jeff Bower’s Golden Eagles’ coaching staff – the group Fedora dispersed upon his own arrival in Hattiesburg. With junior Levi Brown stepping in behind center, the Trojans were able to keep the accelerator floored and finished the season in the 400 Yards Club. The kid threw 72 passes against LSU with only one
interception. After playing seven out of 12 games on the road this season, the neutral site should feel almost like home to Troy even with Southern Miss’ Hattiesburg base only 90 miles away. TROY, 37-20.

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23 POINSETTA BOWL Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, CA
BEST BET TCU over BOISE STATE by 16
“Boise – you’ve gone undefeated, dominating the opposition…a fine showing. Johnny – tell them what they’ve won.”“Well Coach Petersen – you’ve won an all-expense trip to… the Poinsettia Bowl to play a ridiculously talented and miffed TCU team. Enjoy!” Wound
meet salt. The Broncos are 12-0 – that’s true. Of those wins, only one (Oregon) was against a team ranked in Sagarin’s top 60. Now they get the Horned Frogs, who man the best D in the land. If not for a last second TD by Utah, Gary Patterson’s bunch probably would’ve been in the Sugar Bowl. Their defense will manhandle a young o-line and QB combo that doesn’t see this type of speed unless they watch NASCAR on Sundays. TCU defensive end Jerry Hughes is a beast – racking up 14.5 sacks, 2 picks, and 6 forced fumbles. His defensive unit ranks 1st nationally against the run and 2nd nationally in total defense, scoring defense, and sacks. They held Oklahoma to 35 points – most teams couldn’t do that in the first half. Boise coach Petersen quipped that other coaches he’s talked to said, “That’s the fastest team we’ve ever seen.” Petersen’s freshman QB Moore might want to bring a spare helmet – because after his offense fails to move it on the
ground, he’ll be asked to stand in harm’s way nearly every snap. Offensively, TCU isn’t fancy – they power run to setup the pass. What they do, they do well. They’ll also get WR Jeremy Kerley back from a 4-game injury and this speedster is the engine that makes
the “Wild Frog” formation go. TCU, 30-14.

RECOMMENDED NOTRE DAME over HAWAII by 7
Despite fading like Big Brown down the stretch, the Irish will be plenty motivated by having the chance to go 7-6 and to win the program’s first bowl game since 1994. Getting WR Floyd back from injury will be huge. Without the play-making freshman, Weis’ passing game went for 147 yards per game. With him, 259 yards per game. Hawaii ranks 10th nationally in takeaways, so QB Claussen will have to be smart with the football. Notre Dame’s defense was overshadowed by their late offensive struggles, but the unit ranked
a respectable 38th nationally in total defense – meaning they were sandwiched between LSU and Mississippi State. The Hawaii offense this year is a VW Bug compared to last year’s Ferrari. The attacking 3-4 defense manned by Notre Dame should be able to jar the ball loose from a squad that turned it over 35 times. Public perception is often skewed by the “what have you done for me lately” mentality. As for the Domers, they melted down in a loss to lowly Syracuse and were humiliated by USC. The Warriors lost in the final minutes to Orange Bowl bound Cincinnati. That perception drives holiday value that not even Wal-Mart can match. NOTRE DAME, 30-23.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 20 EAGLE BANK BOWL RFK Stadium – Washington DC
WAKE FOREST over NAVY by 6
Nothing gets Navy’s attention more than a revenge game. “You sunk my battleship! I’ll get you, you S.O.B.!” Problem is, this past September, Navy already got revenge for last season’s 44-24 home loss to Wake Forest with a 24-17 victory on the Demon Deacons’ home field. That particular game was played when Wake Forest was sandwiched between a road trip to Florida State for the ACC opener, and the ACC home opener vs. Clemson. As a BCS Conference team, Wake Forest had to prioritize those outings as part of their long-term goal to win the ACC Atlantic Division. The Demon Deacons took care of business in those early ACC games surrounding the loss to Navy. But against the Middies, the game spiraled out of control early. It was 0-17 at the half after Wake QB Riley Skinner made the worst series of moves in his collegiate career. The lead in the Associated Press’ recap described it rather succinctly: “Riley Skinner's first interception in nine months was quickly followed by another, then another. The miscues didn't stop.” Skinner had a hand in five of then-#16-ranked Wake Forest's six turnovers, and his fourth-quarter interception squasged any comeback hopes. “It's pretty deflating for an offense and a defense when you do that," said Skinner, after his streak of 133 passes without being intercepted was shattered by throwing four, and by losing a fumble to sprinkle gasoline on the fire. “It’s all on me." Redemption try comes with a much more favorable lead-in, in front of a pro-Navy crowd. WAKE FOREST, 21-16.

NEW MEXICO BOWL University Stadium – Albuquerque, NM
COLORADO STATE over FRESNO STATE by 3
If enthusiasm alone won football games, Colorado State would take this one 63-0. The Rams and their faithful are ecstatic over their 6-6 season and a bowl berth. First-year coach Fairchild noted that, “Our football staff and players can’t wait to get down there.” Fresno had
visions of BCS buster dancing in their heads in fall camp, but was left with a stocking full of 7 wins, 5 losses. They best bring their A-game, ‘cause they’re gonna get a big-time fight. Fairchild’s team has proven that they can compete with better athletes – see close losses to TCU and BYU. His offense mans talent at QB, RB, WR, and tight end, and the o-line has progressed during the season. Points won’t be a problem against a Fresno defense that gave up a whopping 5.3 ypc and managed only four picks in 12 games. Preventing points will be a problem. The Rams yielded 5.2 ypc, 6.1 yards per play (the same as Central Michigan), and allowed opponents to convert 48% on third down. Fresno State’s offense is built on downhill running and the lack of defensive line push by the opposing Rams could tilt the field a bit. If CSU can stone ‘em in the first quarter, look for the Bulldogs to place their tails squarely between their legs. COLORADO STATE, 34-31.

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL Tropicana Field – St. Petersburg, FL
SOUTH FLORIDA over MEMPHIS by 17
Movin’ on up from C-USA into power-conference match-ups isn’t how Memphis lands in bowls. Tommy West’s program is 0-7 SU vs. BCS conference foes since the 2005 season. In games like this, Memphis’ lack of depth tends to materialize in special teams miscues, defensive breakdowns, and the general fatigue and frenzy associated with having to play from a trailing position on the scoreboard. As the largest early-line underdog in this season’s bowl roster, Memphis will certainly generate some knee-jerk point-taking from bettors. But the team’s year-end rally that followed injuries to its top two QBs was effected with rushing emphasis and trickery-dickery dock offensive plays against weak defensive opponents in CUSA, some of those opponents who came “loaded for squirrel” with injured, depth-shy rosters featuring bad or badly unbalanced offenses. South Florida – who travels farther than any Big East team every year and went 1,800 miles to give up 56 points to Oregon in last year’s Sun Bowl – gets to stay close to their Tampa home and make jump-up pass plays that QB Matt Grothe couldn’t make against Big East back sevens, while containing a Memphis offense that looks scary on paper and in warm-ups but doesn’t always execute the way they want to vs. this caliber of foe. Meanwhile, Memphis’ defense was on the field for only 58 plays per game this season – third fewest in the nation – yet the team allowed 26 points per game. The other top five “underworked” defenses, Virginia Tech, TCU, Northern Illinois, Rutgers, were on teams that allowed from 10.9 to 18.5 points per game. SOUTH FLORIDA, 34-17.

LAS VEGAS BOWL Sam Boyd Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
ARIZONA over BYU by 6
This marks the third straight 10-2 main course with the Vegas Bowl for dessert. You know it’s getting old, especially when your team sat atop the BCS buster bubble six games in. In those first six games, his defense gave up just 10 points per contest. In the next six, there
was a San Andreas Fault type shift to 32 points per game. Arizona generally performs well against the defensively challenged and their balance this year will help them in the desert. For a spread passing offense – the Cats sure run it a lot It helps when you have two good
backs who open things up for QB Tuitama and his bag of tricks. Also helps when playing a team that struggles at times to get off of the field, as evidenced by the BYU defenses’ weak 45% 3rd down conversion rate. Don’t expect Arizona coach Mike Stoops to feel sorry for
them. He stated that his team is headed “to Vegas to win”. Stoops knows that all that separates him from a pink slip is a string of bad games – so he needs all of the brownie points he can muster. Despite the very average defensive stats from both sides – totals players
should note that these two offenses are similar…translation – the defenses have seen it every day in practice since the first day of camp. ARIZONA, 30-24.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 26 MOTOR CITY BOWL Ford Field – Detroit, MI
CENTRAL MICHIGAN over FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 2
After playing for and winning the MAC Championship on this field in 2007 and 2006, Central Michigan is back in Detroit in December. But familiarity with the venue goes out the window if the match-up is unfavorable. Central Michigan’s defense has to worry about its 285 yards allowed per game, against an FAU quarterback who threw 22 TD passes. They also have to worry about whether their own QB Dan LeFevour represents too much of their offense, as the team leader in rushing attempts and rushing yardage as well as the triggerman for a 19-5 TDINT ratio. LeFevour’s backup is a senior, Brian Brunner, who the coaches might want to play more (four appearances, two starts this season) in his goodbye game. That would mean favorite players would not be receiving Central Michigan as they normally get them. Both sides have the offensive balance and capability to come from behind if trailing. But only one of them has a margin for error in the battle vs. the point-spread. Central Michigan’s national best 20.8 average on punt returns would be more meaningful if their defense was better at getting three-and-outs and forcing more punts. FAU quarterback Rusty (Big Play Once Again) Smith and his sizable crew of 6’2” to 6’5” jump-up receivers face a CMU defense that allowed 147 first downs via the pass, which ranks that unit as Rice- and Indiana-like. CMU’s defensive redzone score percentage was 91.1%, bottom 10 in the nation. CENTRAL MICHIGAN, 33-31.
 

New member
Joined
Aug 22, 2005
Messages
158
Tokens
STATFOX / PLATINUM SHEET

12/20/2008 (205) MEMPHIS vs. (206)S FLORIDA
In past bowl games with double-digit pointspreads, the Big East is 2-11 ATS. In other words, the conference isn’t good enough to be a double-digit favorite and it isn’t that poor where it should get routed in bowl games. Here, South Florida is given the benefit of the doubt by oddsmakers, seemingly because it is playing in its own backyard. However, it’s awfully tough to look past the fact that the Bulls have scored just 14.0 PPG over their L5 and have basically underachieved all season long. They are not a team that is likely to be thrilled by the prospect of going to the season’s third bowl game located right across the bay. Memphis meanwhile, has an offense that played very well down the stretch, and is a team that is 9-1 ATS in its L10 games vs. good defenses yielding <=310 YPG.Play on: Memphis +13

12/21/2008 (209) TROY vs. (210) SOUTHERN MISS
In its L4 games, Troy held three opponents in single digit points defensively. During that same time, Southern Miss allowed just 35 points total. Clearly these are two teams that are playing well defensively. In fact, other than on a few sparse occasions, these are not teams that are well-known for lighting up the scoreboard. If any game in the first week of the bowl season figures to be played tighter to the vest, it is this one. That would seem to lend itself to a close, lower scoring game. The StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings would seem to agree, as Troy is +6.9, Southern Miss is +6.6. Add the fact that the Sun Belt isn’t often favored in bowl games, and I could see an UNDER/UNDERDOG parlay hitting. Play on: Southern Miss +3.5

12/23/2008 (211) TCU vs. (212) BOISE ST
The TCU-Boise State game is a battle of non-BCS conference powerhouses. Which team is better though, and did oddsmakers favor the right team? I don’t think they did, and the major difference I see in these teams is that the Broncos have the more dynamic offense. In fact, with a +1.2 YPP edge over TCU offensively, I’d say that Boise has much greater potential for making big plays on that side of the ball in this game. With both teams boasting incredible defensive number, that edge figures to be the difference in the game. The StatFox
Forecaster, Outplay Factor Ratings, and Power Ratings all indicate that Boise State should be the small favorite here, not TCU. Look for a
minor upset. Play on: Boise St +2

TOP STATFOX POWER RATING EDGES:
1. UTAH (+10.5) over ALABAMA 7.5
2. KANSAS (-8.5) over MINNESOTA 7.5
3. OREGON (+3) over OKLAHOMA ST 7
4. W VIRGINIA (+1) over N CAROLINA 7
5. COLORADO ST (+4) over FRESNO ST 6
6. RUTGERS (-7) over NC STATE 5

TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:
1. UTAH (+10.5) over ALABAMA 8.5
2. BUFFALO (+6) over CONNECTICUT 8
3. MEMPHIS (+14) over S FLORIDA 8
4. IOWA (-3) over S CAROLINA 7
5. NAVY (+3.5) over WAKE FOREST 5.5
6. BOISE ST (+1) over TCU 5

TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - BOWL GAMES (ATS & Total)
MULTIPLE GAMES
Play Over - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (C MICHIGAN&FLA ATLANTIC, W MICHIGAN&RICE)
- in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) after 7+ games, in non-conference games. (26-0 over the last 10 seasons.) (100.%, +26 units. Rating=6*) The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (10-0). L10 Seasons: (20-0). Since 1992: (26-2).

Saturday, 12/27/2008 (221) MIAMI vs. (222) CALIFORNIA
Play Over - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI&CALIFORNIA) - game between two teams with 5 or less offensive starters returning. (28-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (93.3%, +25.8 units. Rating=5*). The situation’s record this season is: (2-0). L3 Seasons: (12-0). L10 Seasons: (32-6). SINCE 1992: (38-12).

Monday, 12/29/2008 (227) NORTHWESTERN vs. (228) MISSOURI
Play Over - Neutral field teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (MISSOURI&NORTHWESTERN) - in minor bowl games (played in December), with a winning record on the season playing another winning team (30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 units. Rating=5*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: 6-0). L5 Seasons: (14-2). L10: (22-4).

TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - BOWL GAMES (ATS & Total)

Thursday, 01/01/2009 (251) PENN ST vs. (252) USC
Joe Paterno is 0-13 ATS (-14.3 Units) vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game as the coach of PENN ST. The average score was Paterno 17.4, OPPONENT 28.2 - (Rating = 7*)

Saturday, 12/20/2008 (203) FRESNO ST vs. (204) COLORADO ST
FRESNO ST is 1-15 ATS (-15.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons. The average score was FRESNO ST 27.7, OPPONENT 32.2 - (Rating = 5*)

Wednesday, 12/31/2008 (235) AIR FORCE vs. (236) HOUSTON
AIR FORCE is 3-22 ATS (-21.2 Units) off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival since 1992. The average score was AIR FORCE 24.9, OPPONENT 31.8 - (Rating = 5*)

Thursday, 01/01/2009 (249) MICHIGAN ST vs. (250) GEORGIA
MICHIGAN ST is 12-0 OVER (+12 Units) in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. The average score was MICHIGAN ST 25, OPPONENT 31.3 - (Rating = 5*)

Wednesday, 12/31/2008 (243) LSU vs. (244) GEORGIA TECH
LSU is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LSU 30.8, OPPONENT 33.4 - (Rating = 5*)

Tuesday, 12/30/2008 (231) W MICHIGAN vs. (232) RICE
RICE is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) after allowing 42 points or more last game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was RICE 38.1, OPPONENT 41 - (Rating = 5*)

Tuesday, 12/23/2008 (211) TCU vs. (212) BOISE ST
BOISE ST is 52-16 ATS (+34.4 Units) in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was BOISE ST 43.9, OPPONENT 20.2 - (Rating = 4*)
Thursday, 01/01/2009 (245) IOWA vs. (246) S CAROLINA
IOWA is 32-8 UNDER (+23.2 Units) after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992. The average score was IOWA 23.4, OPPONENT 20.7 - (Rating = 4*)

Thursday, 01/08/2009 (267) FLORIDA vs. (268) OKLAHOMA
Urban Meyer is 26-5 ATS (+20.5 Units) in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Meyer 38.5, OPPONENT 15.3 - (Rating = 4*)

TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX BOWL TRENDS - BOWL GAMES (ATS & Total)

Saturday, 12/20/2008 (201) NAVY vs. (202) WAKE FOREST
WAKE FOREST has won four of its L5 bowl games, both SU & ATS.

Saturday, 12/20/2008 (203) FRESNO ST. vs. (204) COLORADO ST.
The underdog is on amazing run of 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in FRESNO ST bowl games.

Saturday, 12/20/2008 (205) MEMPHIS vs. (206) S FLORIDA
The favored team has won SU & ATS in two of three S FLORIDA bowl games.

Saturday, 12/20/2008 (207) BYU vs. (208) ARIZONA
UNDER the total is 8-2 in the L10 BYU bowl games.

Sunday, 12/21/2008 (209) TROY vs. (210) SOUTHERN MISS
UNDER has been the winning total in four of L5 SOUTHERN MISS bowl games.
 

New member
Joined
Aug 22, 2005
Messages
158
Tokens
Logical Approach

As we have done for many seasons we will have selections on both Sides and Totals in every Bowl game, using a five tiered scale to indicate the strength of selections. Here's how the Star ratings relate to the strength of the recommendations/opinions:
Rating Strength of Selection Units or % of Bankroll
5 Star Best of the Best - Our Strongest Recommendation 3.0 Units - 5.0% of BR
4 Star A Best Bet - A Strong Recommendation 2.0 Units - 3.0% of BR
3 Star A Solid Opinion - Worth a Regular Play 1.0 Unit - 2.0% of BR
2 Star A Slight Opinion 0.5 Unit - 1.0% of BR
1 Star A Lean - We'll Just Sit and Watch ? ? ?

Eagle Bank Bowl - Washington, DC - Saturday, December 20, 2008
This is one of two Bowl rematches of games played during the regular season. On September 27 Navy, 2-2 at the time, traveled to Wake Forest (3-0). Wake was a 17 point home favorite but was upset by Navy 24-17. Navy outgained Wake 343-313. Navy's offense was strongly rush oriented (292 yards) while Wake relied predominantly on the pass 270 yards). Navy never trailed, leading 17-0 at the half and 24-10 in the fourth quarter. The Midshipmen are in their sixth straight Bowl game and first under coach Ken Niumatalolo as Navy continued their solid play following the departure of ex-coach Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech after last season. Wake is in their third straight Bowl game. Navy enjoys a solid home regional edge as Annapolis is just a short 37 miles away whereas Wake's fans must travel over 300 to show their support. Clearly Wake played their best football early in the season whereas Navy was much more consistent over the course of the season, winning their final 2 games and 7 of their last 9. Overall, the ACC was very ordinary this season with no team standing out or challenging on the national scene. Historically Wake Forest has fared well when an underdog but not as well when favored. Navy's offense caused problems for Wake the first time around. This is the sixth meeting between these teams over the past decade and prior to Navy's win this season Wake Forest had won all four meeting. So even though this revenge for Wake from earlier this season Navy will still be motivated to show that the earlier win was no fluke. Navy's discipline and the fact they knew long ago that they would be in this Bowl game if the were Bowl eligible makes them the call. Wake Forest had some higher aspirations for post season play. The call is for Navy to pull the mild upset, winning 20-17 and making NAVY a 3 Star Selection and the UNDER a 1 Star Selection

New Mexico Bowl - Albuquerque, NM - Saturday, December 20, 2008
This appears to be the most unattractive of all 34 Bowl matchups but that does not mean it won't be a well played competitive game. These teams appear very evenly matched. Fresno State was expected to have a better season than the one that unfolded whereas Colorado State exceeded expectations in the first season in the post Sonny Lubick era after the long time coach retired after last season. Fresno's 2-10 ATS record shows just how much the Bulldogs underachieved as Fresno averaged being favored by under a TD this season. Neither team distinguished itself when stepping out of conference. Fresno's home 13-10 loss to Wisconsin was not as impressive as it appeared at the time considering how the Badgers struggled for much of the season. The same can be said of their road win at UCLA. Yes, they did rout Rutgers on the road to start the season but Rutgers did not gain their stride until mid season. CSU lost one sided games at Cal and to Colorado. Their most notable win came against Houston. There are more negatives than positives for both of these teams which means there are no real edges. Fresno has an edge in rushing offense while CSU has the passing edge. Fresno State does have more recent Bowl experience including a 40-28 win over Georgia Tech in last season's Humanitarian Bowl. CSU is familiar with the site as a conference affiliate of host New Mexico. One large negative for Fresno is a defense that created on average just 1 turnover per game, ranking ahead of only Washington in that stat. The intangibles tend to favor the underdog as the Rams look at this game as a reward for a season in which steady progress was made. Fresno was thinking in much larger terms when the season began. Colorado State wins 24-20, making Colorado State a 1 Star Selection and the UNDER a 3 Star Selection .

St Petersburg Bowl - St Petersburg, FL - Saturday, December 20, 2008
This Bowl is a major disappointment for South Florida on two fronts. First, the Bulls were expected to contend in what turned out to be a weak Big East conference this season, making their failure to do so all the more disappointing. Secondly, this Bowl is hardly a reward being played basically in their own neighborhood. Even a trip elsewhere within Florida would have generated more interest from the team, fans and alumni and thus the motivation for USF must be called into question. Memphis had a rather nondescript season with no notable wins. Their only win over a Bowl bound team was a 36-30 home win over Southern Miss. Memphis lost to the only other 2 Bowl bound teams they faced, Ole Miss and East Carolina. South Florida can at least claim wins over 3 Bowl bound teams (Kansas, North Carolina State and Connecticut) while losing to Pitt, Cincinnati, Rutgers and West Virginia. South Florida played the tougher schedule with mixed success. The Bulls have a decided edge on defense, allowing 51 yards and 5.5 point per game less than Memphis. South Florida was # 9 nationally against the run, allowing just 98 yards per game. South Florida is clearly the better team but, again, motivation must be questioned. This is one of our least attractive games because of the big pointspread and the overall mediocrity of the teams. Still, taking huge points in a minor Bowl has historically been profitable as its hard to justify such large favoritism for what is essentially an average football team regardless of the opponent or site of game. As such we have a very lukewarm call for the side in this game with a slightly stronger preference for the Total. South Florida gets the win but by only 27-20, making MEMPHIS a 1 Star Selection and the UNDER a 3 Star Selection

Las Vegas Bowl - Las Vegas, NV - Saturday, December 20, 2008
BYU is making their fourth straight trip to the Las Vegas Bowl yet the program and team remains enthusiastic about getting to defend the Las Vegas Bowl title they've won the past 2 seasons following a loss 3 years ago. Arizona will be the fourth different Pac 10 opponent for the Cougars who have enjoyed tremendous crowd support the past three years. Arizona makes their first trip to a Bowl game in a decade and they will also have fan support as the Wildcats' men's hoops team is in town to face UNLV earlier in the day. BYU has one of the more dramatic S/U vs ATS records as their 10-2 straight up mark shows tremendous success on the playing field while their 3-8 ATS mark shows underachievement relative to expectations. But what this means is that BYU was heavily favored in most of their games, winning but failing to cover. In fact, BYU averaged being a 14.8 point favorite this season and they fell short of covering by an average of just 1.5 points. Here they are the underdog against a "Bowl Virgin" - a team that has not been to a Bowl in many years. Historically such favorites make for poor propositions when facing an experienced underdog such as the case here. BYU is familiar with the pageantry surrounding the Bowl and likely takes a ho-hum approach. Arizona is more apt to take in the festivities and thus be more distracted than their foes. There is recent history between these teams as they opened the season playing each other in 2006 and 2007. Arizona won the first meeting at home 16-13 as a 6 ½ point favorite. In 2007 BYU exacted revenge as a 3 ½ point underdog, winning 20-7. Both games were very low scoring perhaps because it was the season opener and the defenses were ahead of the more sophisticated offenses. Note that BYU will have been idle for 4 weeks and Arizona for 2 when this game kicks off, perhaps portending another low scoring affair. Both teams averaged 35+ points per game this season while each allowed just over 21 ppg. The weather could be cold with the late afternoon kick off which could work to keep scoring down as well. BYU had the nation's # 7 pass offense. Arizona was # 14 vs the pass. Arizona had slight statistical edges in the ground game although BYU had a lower yards per rush allowed average (3.9 vs 4.2). BYU was 2-0 against Pac 10 teams this season, fortunate to defeat lowly Washington 28-27 (Arizona beat the Huskies 48-14) and followed that win up with a 59-0 home rout of UCLA (Arizona won 31-10 at UCLA0. Arizona sis not step up in class outside Pac 10 play but did face one MWC foe, losing 36-28 at New Mexico (BYU defeated the Lobos 21-3 at home). BYU was thumped in mid season at TCU but then ran off 4 straight wins before losing at arch rival Utah to end the season. Arizona was more spotty down the stretch but did end their season by beating arch rival Arizona State 31-10. BYU has a major edge in Bowl experience and that edge combined with their talent, senior leadership and their program being in a more mature stage gives them the nod. BYU wins 27-23, making BYU a 3 Star Selection and the UNDER also a 3 Star Selection .

New Orleans Bowl - New Orleans, LA - Sunday, December 21, 2008
Southern Miss enjoys a slight regional edge in this game but Troy will be well represented at the site of their only previous Bowl win, 41-17 over Rice two years ago. Troy went 8-4 last season but did not win the Sun Belt title and thus went uninvited to a Bowl game. They will be very excited to be here. Southern Miss played one Sun Belt team this season, winning at Arkansas State 27-24 but being outgained 447-348. Troy soundly defeated ASU at home 35-9 to end the season, barely outgaining ASU 337-332. Southern Miss faced one team from a BCS conference, losing 27-13 at Auburn. They also lost 24-7 at home to unbeaten Boise State in mid season. Troy faced 3 members of BCS conference, losing at Ohio State (31-10), Oklahoma State (55-24) and their memorable 40-31 loss at LSU in which they led 31-3 in the third quarter! The game against Ohio State was closer than the final score shows, indicative of a team whose starters can compete for much of the game against more talented foes but whose lack of depth is what ultimately is too much. Southern Miss ended the season on a roll, winning 4 straight conference games to close their season. They are making a seventh straight Bowl appearance. Long time coach Jeff Bower was let go following last season's Bowl loss to Cincinnati. Our Conference Power Ratings show both Conference USA and the Sun Belt having improved this season with C-USA still higher rated but the Sun Belt closing the gap. Troy does enjoy most of the statistical edges in this game which is impressive considering their non-conference slate. Southern Miss did benefit from not having to face the two most high powered offenses in their conference (Tulsa and Houston) but did defeat ultimate conference champ East Carolina (21-3 at home). By scheduling tough Troy has shown it is not intimidated by mightier programs and here they only step up to face another non-BCD team. Troy's body of work justifies them being favored in this game and their overall performances suggest they should be able to get by a middle of the pack Conference USA foe. Troy wins 34-24, making TROY a 2 Star Selection and the OVER a 1 Star Selection .

Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego, CA - Tuesday, December 23, 2008
This is one of the most attractive of all 34 Bowl matchups including the BCS games. It is also very intriguing on several fronts as Boise State looks to complete their second unbeaten season in 3 years. Included in their 12-0 season is a 37-32 road win at Oregon in which the Ducks closed the gap late to make the game look close. Boise was in control all the way. TCU stepped up in class but lost at Oklahoma 35-10. But no other team held Oklahoma to under 35 points all season (Texas held the Sooners to exactly 35). In fact, defense is the key in describing this game. In total yards allowed TCU ranked # 2 nationally, Boise State # 15. In points allowed TCU was # 2, Boise State # 3. Against the rush TCU was # 1 (49 yards per game) while Boise was # 15 (105 ypg). Other than Oklahoma no team scored more than 14 points against TCU all season. And other than the 32 points allowed at Oregon and 34 allowed at Nevada (in a 41-34 win) Boise did not allow more than 16 points to any of their other 10 foes. TCU held 7 teams to 7 points or less. Boise did the same to 6 of their foes. Both teams have above average offenses and also each averaged at least 35 points per game, allowing for the seemingly high total. But many of the points these teams scored came as a result of defensive plays. These teams are very evenly matched and this game handicaps as one of the best played and most competitive of all Bowls. Defenses should dominate offenses. TCU does have the better balanced offense and they rarely turn the ball over, losing just 13 turnovers all season. Yet Boise's defense forced 31 turnovers this season, # 4 in the nation at 2.6 per game. Boise is the underdog despite being unbeaten and if the line rises to + 3 they would be upgraded one star. As it is the preference is for a low scoring game and that is where the strength of this selection lies. Look for Boise State to complete their undefeated season by beating TCU 23-16, making BOISE STATE a 2 Star Selection and the UNDER a 4 Star Selection .

Hawaii Bowl - Honolulu, HI - Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Notre Dame has lost 9 consecutive Bowls since their Cotton Bowl win over Texas A&M on New Year's Day 1994. During this span over 90 colleges have won at least one Bowl game. That's rather remarkable given the storied history of the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame bottomed out last season with a 3-9 mark but their 6-6 mark this season is considered disappointing. Hawaii was also down this season after Georgia ruined their hopes of a 13-0 when the Bulldogs walloped Hawaii 41-10 in the Sugar Bowl, exposing the class difference between the programs, Hawaii's coach and QB from last year's team are gone and the results showed on the playing field. Hawaii struggled against the quality teams they faced with their lone win over a Bowl bound team being at Fresno. Notre Dame's only win over a Bowl bound team was over Navy. Still, Notre Dame does have the better athletes. Hawaii has the home field. But even at home should Hawaii be favored over a team such as Notre Dame? Not if Notre Dame is motivated. And while early reports suggest there is not all that much enthusiasm for this Bowl expect that to change as game time nears. Look for Notre Dame to make a priority of building towards next season by ending their long time Bowl failures. Hawaii is by far the weakest Bowl foe Notre Dame has faced during their 9 Bowl losing streak. Even on the road Notre Dame is the better team. They played better opposition and have the better defense, especially against the pass. Sure, Hawaii usually gets some officiating breaks at home but that cannot be counted upon going in. Look for Notre Dame to be focused for this game and at least temporarily ease the pressure on coach Charlie Weis. This is not one of our stronger recommendations but we cannot overlook the class difference between the athletes and the fact that the better athletes are the underdogs. Notre Dame wins34-27, making NOTRE DAME a 3 Star Selection and the OVER also a 3 Star Selection

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK:
NEW YORK GIANTS - 3 over Carolina - This is a huge game that has been moved to Sunday night. The winner of this game earns the top seed in the NFC while the loser could slip to the number 3 seed. Should Carolina lost they might miss the Playoffs altogether. After a pair of losses to teams desperate to win to keep their Playoff hopes alive, the Giants now seek to reverse their negative momentum against a Carolina team playing their best football of the season, having won 3 straight and 7 of 8. The Panthers, 8-0 at home, are just 3-3 on the road. The Giants are defending champs and their losses the past two weeks were both to Division rivals seeking revenge. Despite the recent off field distractions the Giants are still a close knit team and should respond favorably to the pressure of now themselves being in need of a critical win. New York Giants win 27-13.

Other Featured NFL Selections :
DETROIT + 7 over New Orleans - Will this be the week the Lions get that elusive win and avoid the possibility of an 0-16 season? To Detroit's credit they have not quit and have a pair of close losses to Minnesota and Indianapolis the past two weeks from which to draw some hope and perhaps confidence. New Orleans has now been mathematically eliminated from the Playoffs but may still play under the pressure of not being the team that loses to the Lions. In reality the players may not truly care but may be more interested in staying healthy the final two weeks as their disappointing season ends. At the very least, the Saints do not deserve the high degree of favoritism they are being shown . They are 2-6 away from home, winning at Kansas City and over San Diego in London. The time is right for Detroit to end their losing skein and they face the perfect team against which to do so. As bad as Detroit has been defensively, the Saints are not all that much better. And they will be facing a highly motivated opponent. Detroit wins 28-27.

SEATTLE + 5 over N Y Jets - The Mike Holmgren era is winding down and the popular Seattle coach walks the home sidelines for the last time as his 'Hawks face the Jets, ironically now guided by Holmgren's prized pupil from his days in Green Bay, QB Brett Favre. Seattle will be out to win this last home game for their coach but they face a Jets' team in a three way battle for the AFC East title. The Jets are staggering down the stretch and were very fortunate to beat Buffalo last week. They've played poorly out west, losing this season at Oakland, San Diego and San Francisco. The Seahawks have played better of late and their last two efforts - a 3 point home loss to New England and their come from behind win at albeit lowly St Louis - shows they have not quit. If there's one big effort left in this team, it shows here. Seattle wins 23-20.

TAMPA BAY - 3 ½ over San Diego - This game's been moved to 10 AM Pacific time so San Diego takes the field several hours ahead of Denver, meaning a win by the Chargers keeps them alive for the Playoffs. This could be short lived but if Denver loses at home to Buffalo the Chargers need only beat Denver next week in San Diego to win the AFC West. Tampa controls its fate for the Playoffs and a win here virtually assures that of happening as Tampa hosts lowly Oakland next week. Thus this game should be played with great intensity with neither team wanting to make a mistake and the team in the lead looking to protect that lead. That should mean conservative game plans featuring more running than passing unless the game gets one sided. The offenses surprisingly are even but Tampa's defensive edge is great. Tampa Bay wins 23-16.

Best of the NFL Totals
Indianapolis/Jacksonville UNDER 45
Baltimore/Dallas UNDER 39 ½
Pittsburgh/Tennessee UNDER 35
Cincinnati/Cleveland UNDER 34 ½
Atlanta/Minnesota OVER 44 ½
New Orleans/Detroit OVER 50 ½
Houston/Oakland UNDER 44
San Diego/Tampa Bay UNDER 42
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Allen Eastman

USC OVER 45.5............................$200.00
TCU OVER 45.5.............................$200.00
BC UNDER 41.5.............................$500.00
NC UNDER 53.5.............................$600.00


$1000.00 #201 Navy (+3) over Wake Forest (11 a.m., Saturday, Dec. 20)

$900.00 #205 Memphis (+11.5) over South Florida (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 20)

$800.00 #207 BYU (+3) over Arizona (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 20)

$200.00 ‘Over’ 45.5 TCU vs. Boise State (8 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 23)

$500.00 #213 Notre Dame (-1) over Hawaii (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 24)

$1000.00 #216 Central Michigan (-7) over Florida Atlantic (8 p.m., Friday, Dec. 26)
 

New member
Joined
Aug 22, 2005
Messages
158
Tokens
Winning Points

College Bowls

Saturday December 20
EAGLE BANK BOWL (Washington, DC)
NAVY over WAKE FOREST by 2
We don’t often get to look at rematches at this time, and in truth we don’t really
have one here – yes Navy won 24-17 at Wake Forest back in September, but there
is not a whole lot at all that we can take from it. First, a Demon Deacon squad that
is usually fundamentally-sound under Jim Grobe turned the ball over six times,
nearly one-third of their output in that category for the season. But before giving
those miscues the full credit for the scoreboard result, also note that Navy was
moving the ball at will until QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada went down with an
injury in the second quarter, and his absence helped Wake to rally from a 17-0
halftime deficit to be in the game into the fourth quarter. So let’s focus on the present,
not the first meeting, and the present tells us that with their true starting QB
on hand the Midshipmen are able to get much deeper into their playbook than
they did for much of the second half of the season, and a defense off of back-toback
shutouts brings a lot of confidence to the table against the mediocre Wake
Forest skill people. The Deacons were +18 in turnovers in their seven wins, holding
an advantage in that category in each victory, but Navy only turned it over 13
times all season, and the combination of that precision and what should be a partisan
crowd paves the way for the Midshipmen to beat a bowl team outright as an
underdog for the fourth time this season. NAVY 22-20.

NEW MEXICO BOWL (Albuquerque, NM)
FRESNO STATE over COLORADO STATE by 6
Both of these teams barely crossed the bowl qualifying bar at 6-6, but there is a big
difference in the perceptions of achievement between the programs – Pat Hill and
his Bulldogs came in expecting much better things, while for Steve Fairchild in his
first season with the Rams the ability to extend the campaign can only go as a positive.
Ordinarily that would have us leaning to an underdog that would give the
appearance of being much more enthused to be here, but we are not sure that fits.
For a program with the kind of pride that Fresno brings, that 61-10 humiliation
at Boise State in the regular-season finale left a bitter taste, and we sense a team
that is going to bring a renewed focus in a chance for some redemption. It is also
a time for Pat Hill to rededicate himself to the team, after that flirtation with the
Washington job. But more than anything else it means a chance to get healthy for
a team that was riddled with injuries this fall, and when all hands are on deck they
are the superior side against a scrappy State team that lacks playmakers. The key
matchup here is that depth and power of the Fresno ground game (three different
RB’s gained at least 593 yards) going into a Ram rush defense that finished 99th
in the nation in rush yards allowed and 104th in yards per rush, and in three road
games against bowl teams they allowed an alarming 6.7 per carry. FRESNO
STATE 32-26.

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL (St. Petersburg, FL)
SOUTH FLORIDA over MEMPHIS by 6
Bowl favorites laying double figures in these early games have had a dismal
pointspread success rate through the years, and it makes a great deal of sense – a
team laying big wood here had a major talent advantage over the opponent, and
when that big of an advantage exists, it means that we are likely dealing with a
favorite that had a chance at bigger things, but did not make it happen. South
Florida is an almost classic example of that. With 17 starters returning from a successful
2007 team the Big East title was considered the break even goal for the season,
yet the Bulls could only manage a dismal 2-5 in league play, with one of those
wins coming over hapless Syracuse. Yet the oddsmakers are still pricing them on
their potential here, rather than the reality, which is nothing new – Jim Leavitt’s
squad has lost outright as a favorite eight times over the past two seasons, which is
most unusual. And as for a home field advantage, perhaps the worst thing that can
happen after a disappointing season is to not even get to leave campus for a bowl
game. We will call for a flat effort by the Bulls in this one, and a Memphis team
that will consider this a real reward, and now has QB Arkelon Hall fully back to
health to work with that talented group of RB’s and WR’s, is capable of competing
to the final possession vs. a favorite that lacks the ground game to ever take
control of the proceedings. SOUTH FLORIDA 28-22.

LAS VEGAS BOWL (Las Vegas, NV)
BRIGHAM YOUNG over ARIZONA by 3
In making Arizona the favorite here, in the first Wildcat bowl appearance in 10
years, we are not sure that the oddsmakers have made the proper statement for any
setting. But for Las Vegas they may be particularly wrong. Sin City has become
home away from home for the BYU program in recent years, with this being the
fourth straight appearance in this game, while the Cougars have also grabbed a pair
of double-figure wins over U.N.L.V. on this field in that same time span. In each
of those games they brought a substantial following, and with a chance to spend a
weekend in Las Vegas again we can expect more of the same here. That creates not
only a comfort zone, but also a major edge in pre-game preparation, with a team
that has gone to a bowl in every one of Bronco Mendenhall’s seasons matching up
against an opponent that has no such experience. On the field we have a battle of
two offenses that will both run spread looks, but while B.Y.U. has been doing it
for quite some time this has only been the second full season of the new look for
the Wildcats, who are still learning their way in the Sonny Dykes playbook, and
with a few weeks off just what the doctor ordered for RB Harvey Unga and TE
Dennis Pitta to get back to full health, we call for the underdog to win outright in
a game that is not an upset in any way. B.Y.U. 30-27.

Sunday December 21
NEW ORLEANS BOWL (New Orleans, LA)
TROY over SOUTHERN MISS by 9
It looks like Troy continues to fly far below the radar screens in the setting of this
line, and that gives us a chance to back Larry Blakeney’s Trojans with a particularly
dominant matchup on the field. Two years ago Troy earned a trip to this bowl,
and dominated Rice in a 41-17 rout. But despite going 8-4 last year they were
snubbed by the bowls. But that works to our advantage here. Now a team that was
good enough to lead L.S.U. on the road into the fourth quarter, and to only be
trailing 14-10 at Ohio State in the second half, can carry that momentum of those
dominating Sun Belt showdown wins over Louisiana and Arkansas State when the
league crown was on the line (they won by a combined 84-12), and they can take
care of business by using their deep and talented OL (all five starters returned from
LY, with three seniors, and four of them going 305 pounds or more) to control and
under-sized Southern Miss DL. Consider how one-sided that matchup is – only
Army and Navy allowed fewer sacks than Troy, largely because those two teams
almost never throw the ball, while the Golden Eagles were 104th in the nation in
sacks, despite playing in a pass happy conference. With great protection, QB Levi
Brown stepped in for the injured Jamie Hampton to throw 14 touchdown passes
vs. only three interceptions, and he gets the kind of time here that sets up the passing
game well. TROY 30-21.

Tuesday December 23
POINSETTIA BOWL (San Diego, CA)
T.C.U. over BOISE STATE by 4
Sometimes we get to take advantage of soft lines, and sometimes we have to admit
that the guys setting the numbers can also be awfully sharp – like in their setting
of this one. When the matchup was first set we hoped to get T.C.U. as a small
underdog, or no worse than pick’em, but they are not going to allow that. But we
must stay with the Horned Frogs as the right side even laying a few points, and
avoid the temptation to take an unbeaten Boise State squad as an underdog. Here
is the crux of the matter – while that dramatic Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma will
make highlight reels for decades to come, if not for those big plays at the end of
that one the Broncos would be on a four-game losing streak in bowls, and we are
still not certain just how good this year’s edition is. The defense put up better numbers
than usual, but that must be factored against how weak the W.A.C. offenses
were this season, and in the only real non-conference challenge Oregon had 32
points, 29 first downs and 464 yards, going over 200 both running and passing.
And it is also worth noting that Boise could net only 38 rushing yards in that game
on 34 attempts, with no run of longer than eight yards. T.C.U. brings the defensive
tenacity to keep that ground game in check, and we would not be surprised if
the Horned Frogs commanded the line of scrimmage here. Unfortunately, it
appears that others would not be surprised either. T.C.U. 24-20.

Wednesday December 24
HAWAII BOWL (Honolulu, HI)
HAWAII* over NOTRE DAME by 1
We were a little taken aback when Notre Dame accepted this bid – the university
certainly does not need the money, and the stigma of finishing with another losing
season would be much worse than whatever upside they can get from winning
here. But perhaps it is a sign of the times that they are desperate for any kind of
positive exposure. The question is whether or not they can get it. Once again they
looked slow on the field against the better teams that they faced, and that creates
some matchup issues against a quick Hawaii team on a fast playing surface. There
is also the issue of a team from the Midwest having conditioning problems at this
heat and humidity, coming nearly a full month since they last played (and there
was not a whole lot of effort on display in that three-point, four-first down loss at
Southern Cal). So can we take advantage of that? Not quite, because the bottom
line is that the host is also nothing special. The Warriors developed a little more
consistency on offense once they settled in on Greg Alexander at QB, but the playmakers
at RB and WR are lacking, which prevents them from taking advantage of
a defense that has not faced this type of attack much at all this season, And with
WR Michael Floyd returning, the Irish are capable of making a big play or two
through the air. We will just call it close, in a game where neither side brings us a
confidence level to back. HAWAII 27-26.

Friday December 26
MOTOR CITY BOWL (Detroit, MI)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN over FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 12
Having too many bowls can lead to some dubious resumes, but we have to put
Florida Atlantic into a special category, with the Owls arguably bringing less to the
table than any bowl team we have every charted. They were out-classed in all four
matchups against bowl opponents, and if not for escaping with three wins vs.
lightweights (Western Kentucky by four, UL-Monroe by one, and Florida
International in overtime, after trailing by 14 with 2:10 to play), they could have
easily been 3-9. Having said that, they can be among the most dangerous of bowl
underdogs from a psychological standpoint, since they are merely glad to get an
invitation, and a few extra weeks of practicing in South Florida can be pleasant,
even if the ultimate destination is not. But while Howard Schnellenberger is 5-0
lifetime in bowl games, and will bring a loose and aggressive side, ultimately his
team is overmatched by a Chippewa squad that is making this venue a home away
from home, making a good account of themselves in each of the last two seasons
in this game (1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS). A short drive for C.M.U. fans to see Dan
LeFevour and that explosive offense (each of the last two years set attendance
records for the bowl), while the visitors will have almost no support on-site. CENTRAL
MICHIGAN 36-24.
 

New member
Joined
Aug 22, 2005
Messages
158
Tokens
Winning Points

NFL

****BEST BET
Arizona over *New England by 10
It’s not that the Patriots are a bad team. They’re decent. But decent is all
they are without Tom Brady. The market continues to overprice New
England.That’s the case again despite Arizona being a warm-weather West
Coast team traveling cross-country for an early start into cold weather.The
Cardinals have plenty of experience with East Coast time this season having
played on the road versus Washington, the Jets, Carolina and
Philadelphia.They’ve been home the past two weeks so they shouldn’t be
weary.New England is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games.The Patriots have failed
to cover 12 of the last 18 times they’ve been installed as favorites.Arizona
had its flat spot last week after winning its first division title in 33 years.
The Cardinals have covered in nine of the last 13 times they’ve been
underdogs. They have the huge passing attack that can exploit New
England’s injury-wracked secondary that has allowed 26 touchdowns
through the air. The Patriots don’t have enough healthy linebackers or
defensive backs to keep Kurt Warner in check.Warner has three excellent
targets in Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston. There’s not
much defensive whiz Bill Belichick can do to derail the Cardinals’ highpowered
aerial attack. He doesn’t have the chess pieces anymore with so
many injuries. Matt Cassel has filled in well for Brady. Cassel has his limitations,
though. He’s not Brady. He’s been picked off 11 times and been
sacked 44 times.There are times when he breaks the pocket too soon.The
Cardinals’ defense is based on scheme. It’s most effective when Adrian
Wilson, one of the most versatile safeties in the NFL, is healthy.Wilson could
be a pivotal factor.ARIZONA 30-20.

***BEST BET
Buffalo over *Denver by 10
The Bills have gone 2-8 since opening with such a promising start, winning
their first four games. The Broncos, however, aren’t strong enough to lay
this high of a spread.They have failed to cover in their last six home games.
Playing a home game in Denver this late in the season always raises the possibility
of inclement weather.The Bills are used to cold and snow. Bad conditions
would be a plus for the underdog, especially one with a stronger
ground game.The Bills have that with Marshawn Lynch. He’s rushed for an
average of 98 yards in his last five games. His backup, Fred Jackson, is better
than any of Denver’s remaining running backs.The Broncos have gone
through six tailbacks.They are down to P.J. Pope as their main ball-carrying
threat.This puts a lot of pressure on quarterback Jay Cutler. He’s only been
so-so during the past five weeks with six touchdown passes and four interceptions.
He’s thrown for more than 286 yards only once during this time
frame.The long season may be taking a toll on him. Both teams have been
hard hit by injuries on defense. Buffalo got back its best secondary player,
safety Donte Whitner last week. The Broncos still have been without star
cornerback, Champ Bailey (check status).The Bills are hoping to get back
Trent Edwards. Backup J.P. Losman actually throws a better deep ball than
Edwards.Although turnover-prone, Losman can take advantage of Denver’s
cluster injury problem in its secondary, especially with deep threat Lee
Evans. Buffalo has excellent special teams.The Bills have dangerous kickoff
and punt returners.The Broncos are chasing down a division title.They’re
fortunate they are in such a weak division.That factor has helped push this
line up to where there’s good value on Buffalo. BUFFALO 27-17.

**PREFERRED

*St. Louis over San Francisco by 4
No team has won fewer games during the past two seasons than the Rams.
St. Louis has dropped eight games in a row with its average loss margin
being by 18 points. So why all of a sudden pick this spot to go with the
woebegone Rams? There are several key reasons.The 49ers aren’t exactly
going to the Super Bowl either.They are 5-9 ATS in their last 14 away contests.
It’s a terrible situation for San Francisco.The 49ers are traveling for
the fourth time in five weeks.They’ve had to play in the Eastern Time Zone
twice in their past three games.They won at Buffalo, upset the Jets at home
and then played Miami extremely tough on the road before falling short.
The Rams are a more potent team with Steven Jackson back healthy.
Jackson should be able to run on the mediocre 49ers’ rush defense.
Jackson’s presence makes Marc Bulger a factor. The 49ers lack secondary
depth.The Rams can move the ball.They’ve been snake bit by turnovers,
committing a ghastly 23 of them in their last seven games.That high figure
can’t continue. St. Louis put up 406 yards on the 49ers in its Week 11 loss
and that was without Jackson.Now the Rams have Jackson, while the 49ers
still could be without their main weapon, Frank Gore. ST. LOUIS 24-20.

New York Jets over *Seattle by 13
Mike Holmgren gets to match wits with his former star pupil, Brett Favre.
Give a strong edge to the ageless Favre. He gets to attack a Seattle secondary
than ranked last in pass defense through the first 14 weeks.Yes, the Jets
are traveling three time zones and laying points. East-to-west travel, though,
isn’t nearly as bad as the other way.New York’s 3-10 ATS mark versus teams
with a losing record is a concern. But the Jets received their wake-up call
this past Sunday needing a late defensive touchdown to pull out a victory
against Buffalo.New York clearly has more talent than Seattle.The Seahawks
probably aren’t going to have Matt Hasselbeck again. The Jets have a top
tier run defense.They should be able to overpower a decimated Seahawks
offensive line that probably will be missing their three best starters again,
tackle Walter Jones (check status), guard Mike Wahle and center Chris
Spencer. Seattle hasn’t lost this many games since 1992.The Seahawks can
only move the ball against extremely weak defenses. Their small defense
struggles versus physical offenses.The Jets’ offensive line has gotten much
tougher thanks to Alan Faneca. He’s helped Thomas Jones enjoy a strong
bounce-back year. NY JETS 27-14.

*CLOSE CALLS

Indianapolis over *Jacksonville by 9 (Thursday)
This marks Jacksonville’s third game in 12 days.That’s tough on any team.
It’s especially difficult for one with low morale and bad chemistry such as
the Jaguars. David Garrard has been sacked 38 times this season. He’s
looked more like a career backup, which he was until last season. The
Jaguars are without their best wideout, suspended Matt Jones, and veteran
running back Fred Taylor. Indy, though, still could be missing safety Bob
Sanders and linebacker Gary Brackett. The Colts haven’t been good in
December under Tony Dungy, going 4-10 ATS.They are 3-11 ATS in their last
14 division games. INDIANAPOLIS 29-20.

Baltimore over *Dallas by 1 (Saturday)
Dallas is so dysfunctional with so many head cases it can’t be trusted
against a defense this good. Both teams are off huge division matchups.
Baltimore has the second-best defense in the league. It hasn’t given up 100
yards to any running back in 33 straight games.The Ravens have won and
covered seven of their last nine games. The key is how will rookie Joe
Flacco perform in this hostile environment? If you discount a 30-10 loss to
the Giants and 13-9 defeat to Pittsburgh this past week, the Ravens are averaging
32.5 points in their last seven games. BALTIMORE 21-20.

*Tennessee over Pittsburgh by 5
Pittsburgh can’t be blamed for a letdown here after clinching the AFC
North Division last Sunday by beating Baltimore on the road.The Steelers
have played the toughest schedule in the league. That could catch up to
them.The Titans have been flat the past couple of weeks. Still, they’ve covered
11 of their last 14. Their best defensive player, tackle Albert
Haynesworth (check status), hurt his leg last week. Pittsburgh is tough to
go against even in a potential flat spot. The Steelers are 12-5 ATS as road
‘dogs.They also have covered 11 of their past 15 December games.They’ve
held their last five opponents to 13 points or less.TENNESSEE 19-14.

Miami over *Kansas City by 3
The Dolphins are well-balanced and have an underrated offense. Joey
Porter is a candidate for defensive MVP honors. Still,we’re reluctant to lay
too many points here with the warm-weather Dolphins even though
Kansas City has dropped 21 of its last 23 and Miami has captured seven of
its last eight. Herm Edwards still has the Chiefs competing hard. Kansas
City has covered in its last three games.Although just 3-9 ATS in their last
12 at Arrowhead Stadium, this is the Chiefs’ final home game and cold
weather is likely. It’s Miami’s third road game in four weeks. MIAMI 16-13.

*Cleveland over Cincinnati by 2
What a dud this year’s battle for Ohio is with a potential quarterback
matchup of Ryan Fitzpatrick versus Ken Dorsey. The Bengals are 3-7 in
Fitzpatrick’s starts.They’ve scored two touchdowns in the past 15 quarters,
while averaging 9.8 points in their last five games. Cincinnati has covered
only one of its past 10 AFC matchups. Dorsey entered Monday’s game
against Philadelphia with a 2-8 NFL record as a starter.The Browns hadn’t
scored a touchdown in 12 consecutive quarters going into Philadelphia
and Jamal Lewis was seeking his first 100-yard rushing game of the season.
CLEVELAND 19-17.

Philadelphia over *Washington by 6
Washington’s 6-2 start is now just a distant memory. What isn’t a memory
is the Redskins dropping five of their last six, both offensive tackles being
out, Clinton Portis dissatisfied and Jim Zorn looking clueless while losing
control of his team.How bad is it? The Redskins have covered once in their
last eight games. They have scored fewer points than the winless Lions.
Jason Campbell has a four-to-six touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last
six games.Traveling on a short week following a Monday night game never
is a plus, but the Eagles have revenge from a 23-17 Week 5 loss when Brian
Westbrook wasn’t 100 percent. PHILADELPHIA 16-10.

*Minnesota over Atlanta by 1
The Vikings dodged a bullet with their twin run-stuffers,Kevin Williams and
Pat Williams, avoiding suspensions.That means an edge to Adrian Peterson
and Minnesota’s ground game.Atlanta’s Michael Turner has rushed for 100
yards seven times this season, but he’s trumped by the magnificent
Peterson, who has broken that figure nine times this year.The Falcons are
used to playing indoors, though, so they should be able to handle the
crowd noise. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has shown outstanding poise.
The Falcons may begin to wear down as this is their third away game in
four weeks.The Vikings are 3-8 ATS following a victory and 6-11 ATS in their
last 17 overall games. MINNESOTA 24-23.

New Orleans over *Detroit by 4
The Saints share something in common with the Lions. Neither team is
going to the playoffs. So you have to question the motivation of New
Orleans. Reggie Bush (check status) still may have problems with his knee.
Drew Brees has been far less effective on the road, although he and the
Saints are at their best in a temperature controlled environment.Detroit figures
to play hard in another effort to avoid being the first 0-16 team. But
facts must be faced.The Lions have been terrible at home, going 1-7 ATS in
their last eight at Ford Field.They’ve been outscored, 250-109, at home this
season and are 7-13 ATS when taking points. NEW ORLEANS 33-29.

*New York Giants over Carolina by 3
The Panthers don’t have the public appeal of Dallas or Green Bay, but this
is the biggest NFC matchup of the season so far. Carolina is one foe the
Giants won’t have a rushing advantage on, especially if Brandon Jacobs
(check status) has to miss another week. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan
Stewart have been the hottest running back tandem this month. The
Panthers have a strong pedigree when getting points, especially on the
road. Carolina is 22-10-2 (68 percent) as an away underdog.The Panthers
have allowed six TD passes during the last three weeks. New York is off
three consecutive NFC East Division contests. NY GIANTS 23-20.

Houston over *Oakland by 3
The Raiders are bad in any month. December is no exception where
Oakland is 15-37 ATS.The Texans have exciting playmakers on offense with
Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton, off his third straight 100-yard rushing game, and
maybe the best wideout in the league,Andre Johnson.The problem is laying
points with Houston on the road.This is just the third time in franchise
history the Texans are road chalk.They lost the other two times straight-up.
Under Gary Kubiak, Houston has lost 17 of 23 away contests. The Texans
are 2-10 SU in their last 12 road encounters. HOUSTON 24-21.

*Tampa Bay over San Diego by 6
San Diego is making its fourth cross-country trip this season.That’s important
because Pacific time zone teams have lost 16 of 17 times when playing
playing in the Eastern Time Zone. Note a time change, too, which makes this a
morning start time for the Chargers instead of a night game. That’s a bad
break for San Diego, which has lost four games in the final 30 seconds.
Tampa Bay may play extra hard for departing long-time popular defensive
coordinator Monte Kiffin.Tampa Bay is 6-2 when Jeff Garcia (check status)
has started this season. Garcia has thrown eight touchdown passes and
been intercepted only once during his last eight starts.TAMPA BAY 25-19.

*Chicago over Green Bay by 1 (Monday)
Green Bay played its best game of the season when it destroyed the Bears,
37-3, in Week 11. Injuries, blown leads and close losses (six defeats by four
points or fewer points) have ruined the Packers’ year. Green Bay’s secondary
remains respectable, but its front seven hasn’t recovered from losing
lineman Cullen Jenkins and linebacker Nick Barnett. The Packers surrendered
51 points to New Orleans and 549 yards to Houston. Despite this the
Packers still are putting forth an effort. They should be pumped to play
Monday night spoiler against their long-time rival.The Packers have won 12
of their last 14 at Solider Field. CHICAGO 24-23.

OVER/UNDER

**UNDER: Miami at Kansas City – The Dolphins are yielding an average
of eight points per game during the last three weeks, but December
Kansas City weather could hamper weak-armed Chad Pennington.

OVER: New Orleans at Detroit – The Saints are without their three top
cornerbacks, while the Lions have surrendered at least 31 points nine times
this season.

UNDER: Philadelphia at Washington – The Redskins are 0-9-1 ‘under’
in their last 10, with a mixed-up offense but competitive defense.
 

New member
Joined
Aug 22, 2005
Messages
158
Tokens
12.26- 1/1 WINNING POINTS NFL

****BEST BET
*San Diego over Denver by 21
Hopefully the NFL is smart enough to keep Ed Hochuli far away from this
rematch. Thanks to a blown call by Hochuli and his crew, the Broncos
edged the Chargers, 39-38.Now that Week 2 tainted victory has come home
to roost for the Broncos. They weren’t the better team back then and
they’re not the better team right now. It took all season, but San Diego has
regained its rhythm with an impressive road win against a desperate Tampa
Bay squad. The media and fans fawn all over Brett Favre and Peyton
Manning.Yet it’s Philip Rivers who is the NFL’s highest rated passer. He’s
had a magnificent season with 28 TD throws. Denver’s Jay Cutler also has
had a big year. Rivers, though, has the weapons and the stronger defense
going for him. LaDainian Tomlinson has had a down season by his lofty standards.
But he’s still head-and-shoulders above anything Denver’s decimated
running back crop has to offer.The Broncos possibly lost two more running
backs last week with P.J. Pope (hamstring) and Selvin Young (pinched
nerve) going out.About the only healthy back Denver has is Tatum Bell, a
runner the Broncos felt so disappointed in that they got rid of him before
the season.The Broncos’ defense isn’t physical and lacks speed even with
Champ Bailey back.They have too many warts.They’ll have to not only contend
with Tomlinson, but star tight end Antonio Gates.Denver’s defense has
yielded at least 30 points in five of its past nine games. The Broncos’
banged-up secondary doesn’t have enough depth and versatility to contain
Rivers and his multitude of big-play targets, including Gates, Chris
Chambers and Vincent Jackson.The Chargers have been at their best during
December.They have won 13 December games in a row.They have the
look of a playoff team right now; the Broncos don’t. SAN DIEGO 34-13.



***BEST BET
Miami over *New York Jets by 10
Let’s start by setting the record straight:The strong possibility of cold,wind
and snow won’t both Miami in this matchup.The way Bill Parcells and Tony
Sparano have shaped and toughened them up, the Dolphins no longer are
a warm-weather team.Their style actually is well-suited for inclement conditions
because they don’t turn the ball over, having an NFL-low 12
turnovers and a league-best plus 14 takeaway/giveaway ratio.The Dolphins,
unlike the Jets, have a clear identity and don’t beat themselves.They are a
balanced,well coached and physical team. It’s the Jets, primarily 39-year-old
Brett Favre, who figure to struggle in bad conditions. One of the reasons
the Packers decided to part company with Favre was because he no longer
showed he could be effective in cold weather. Favre is wearing down.The
long season has taken a toll. He’s thrown a league-high 19 interceptions.
Favre can expect plenty of pressure from sack leader Joey Porter, who is
threatening to break the single-season sack with 17 _ sacks. This is the
chance heady Dolphins quarterback Chad Pennington has been waiting for
all season – a chance to stick it to his old team.The Jets cast their veteran
quarterback off like an old shoe when they went after Favre.The Jets led
all teams with seven players named to the Pro Bowl, including Favre.
Pennington has had just as effective of a season as Favre if not better in his
low-key fashion.The Jets are overrated.The Dolphins are underrated.They
have been all season. Miami has covered the past six times it has been an
underdog, including winning five straight-up with its only loss coming by
one point.The Jets, on the other hand, are 1-6 ATS when laying points.The
Jets attract the publicity, but the Dolphins are the superior team. They’ll
prove it here. MIAMI 23-13.



**PREFERRED

*Green Bay over Detroit by 18
Maybe Joey Harrington wasn’t that bad. On second thought, Harrington is
that bad. But the Lions haven’t shown anything better these days at quarterback
with Daunte Culpepper, Dan Orlovsky and Drew Stanton.They can
ride that trio right to the junkyard along with Matt Millen.A lot is going to
be made of the Lions playing hard to avoid being the first 0-16 in NFL history.
There’s nothing the Lions can do to prevent that, however.The talent
isn’t there. Detroit actually has lost 16 straight games going back to last season
and 22 of their past 23.All the Lions know is losing.They’ve accepted
their fate.They aren’t going to get excited playing in late December in what
surely will be miserable and cold conditions at Lambeau Field.The last time
the Lions won in Wisconsin was 1991. Green Bay is 16-0 SU at home versus
the Lions, 12-3-1 ATS. Sure Brett Favre was responsible for a lot of that domination.
The Packers, though, are much better than their record indicates.
They had outscored their opponents by 32 points going into their Monday
night game against Chicago. Opponents had made only 14 more yards and
two additional first downs than Green Bay prior to Monday. The Packers
destroyed the Lions, 48-25, when they met in Week 2. GREEN BAY 28-10.



*San Francisco over Washington by 9
Mike Singletary has pumped life into San Francisco.The 49ers have covered
five of their last seven under the fiery Singletary, who is popular with his
players.The same can’t be said of Redskins head man Jim Zorn.Washington
is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 with a stagnant offense that quarterback Jason
Campbell never fully grasped and Clinton Portis has been unhappy in.The
Redskins have managed to put up only 76 points in their last seven games,
an average of 10.8 points per game.This is a stinging indictment on Zorn.
It’s not like the Redskins lack playmakers.They have Portis, Santana Moss
and Chris Cooley.The chemistry just isn’t right. Until upsetting Philadelphia
this past Sunday, the Redskins had failed to cover in their last six games.
Totals players may note that the ‘under’ is 10-0-1 during the Redskins’ past
11 games. 49ers quarterback Shaun Hill isn’t pretty. But he has been getting
the job done. It’s a plus if the 49ers get back Frank Gore (check status),who
has missed the last two weeks because of a sprained ankle. It’s doubtful if
Zorn can get the Redskins to play hard here, traveling for the third time in
four weeks and eliminated from playoff contention.The Redskins are 3-12-
2 ATS when meeting a team with a losing record. SAN FRANCISCO 23-14.



*CLOSE CALLS

*Tampa Bay over Oakland by 11
Tampa’s defense is wearing down, yielding 1,207 yards in its last three
games. The Raiders aren’t good enough to capitalize. They’ve allowed 21
rushing touchdowns.This is the Raiders’worst rush defense since Al Davis
took charge of the team back in 1963.The Buccaneers’Antonio Bryant has
23 catches, 435 yards and four touchdowns in the last three weeks. No
Oakland wide receiver even has 20 receptions on the year. Jon Gruden
always loves to beat his former team and Davis.The Raiders are flying crosscountry
with the dreaded early start time.TAMPA BAY 25-14.



*Philadelphia over Dallas by 3
The Philadelphia greeting committee is already lining up awaiting Terrell
Owens with batteries in hand. It’s a must-win battle for both teams, but
who to rely on? The Eagles lose twice to the Redskins and can’t even defeat
the Bengals. Dallas is 1-8 ATS in December. The Cowboys have gone 12
straight seasons without having a winning record after November. Dallas
lacks leadership from its head coach,Wade Phillips, and has an overrated
passing attack. The Cowboys can’t rely on their battering ram, Marion
Barber, anymore either because he’s bothered by assorted aliments, including
a painful toe injury. PHILADELPHIA 26-23.



New York Giants over *Minnesota by 3
Remember Bud Grant? He was the coach about the last time the Vikings
won a game they needed to win. It’s must-win time for Minnesota, but
don’t expect the Vikings to come through even with Adrian Peterson on
the ground and an improved Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. Not having
Pro Bowl nose tackle Pat Williams, out with a broken shoulder, really hurts
Minnesota.The Giants are the top rushing club in the league.The defending
Super Bowl champs are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 road contests. Eli
Manning has a 5-0 mark in his last five dome stadium appearances. NY
GIANTS 23-20.



Chicago over *Houston by 3
Matt Schaub is 4-0 SU as Houston’s starting quarterback at home. Steve
Slaton is a candidate for rookie of the year and Andre Johnson may be the
best wideout in the NFL.The Texans may not be aroused, though, as their
dreams for their first winning season were lost this past week in an upset
loss to lowly Oakland. The Bears entered their Monday night game with
Green Bay with the opportunity to tie Minnesota for first in the NFC North
Division. This will be a short week for Chicago off the Monday game.
CHICAGO 24-21.





Carolina over *New Orleans by 2
The Panthers are too physical for the Saints, something they showed in a
30-7 victory against New Orleans in Week 7. Drew Brees can light up a
scoreboard, though, especially in the Superdome where his touchdown-tointerception
ratio is 19-to-four. Look for the Saints to be throwing a lot trying
to give Brees a chance to break Dan Marino’s single-season passing
yardage mark. Brees needs 402 yards to surpass it.The Panthers are 9-4 SU
against the Saints under John Fox, including winning the last six meetings.
Sean Payton has defeated the Panthers just once in five tries as coach of
New Orleans. CAROLINA 33-31.



*Atlanta over St. Louis by 9
Sure nine losses in a row looks bad. But the Rams gave away late leads in
their last two games.The Falcons have won six of their seven games in the
Georgia Dome this season. However, they may be in for a letdown after
clinching a playoff position, something few if anybody thought they could
accomplish under first-year head man Mike Smith. Rookie quarterback Matt
Ryan hasn’t done anything wrong, but could be wearing down a bit.The
Rams are used to this surface, being a carpet team, too.They are more competitive,
too, with a healthy Steven Jackson.ATLANTA 29-20.



Kansas City over *Cincinnati by 1
How about a new addendum to the flexible schedule: The ability to not
switch, but cancel games.Aside from Herm Edwards possibly coaching his
last game for Kansas City and maybe the return of Carson Palmer, which is
a long shot, there’s not much here.The Chiefs’ offense has picked up since
Tyler Thigpen replaced injured Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard, scoring at
least 19 points in eight of the their past nine games.Thigpen has averaged
225 yards passing per game during this nine-game span. That’s probably
enough offense to thwart the Bengals.They’ve averaged only 11.4 points in
their last 10 games. KANSAS CITY 20-19.



*Baltimore over Jacksonville by 13
Knowing a win here clinches a playoff spot, Baltimore should have all the
motivation in the world.The Ravens’ offense can be raggedy, often needing
help from their defense. But the Jaguars can’t be trusted to put out a strong
effort on the road with their season long gone. Jacksonville is without a
number of key players, including cornerback Rashean Mathis, leading wide
receiver Matt Jones and running back Fred Taylor.The Ravens will be keying
on Maurice Jones-Drew knowing David Garrard doesn’t have many
receiving options. BALTIMORE 26-13.




Tennessee over *Indianapolis by 1
Be prepared for a glorified scrimmage as both the Titans and Colts are
locked into their post-season seeds.Tennessee has already clinched homefield
throughout the AFC playoffs, while Indianapolis is the No. 5 seed.
Neither club has anything to gain so expect a healthy dose of backups.The
Titans have the better backup quarterback in Vince Young as opposed to
Jim Sorgi. Colts coach Tony Dungy might hold out both his main running
backs, Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes.The Titans are 6-1 ATS away from
home this season, 17-6 in their past 23 road contests.TENNESSEE 21-20.



*Pittsburgh over Cleveland by 17
The Browns may not score. In fact it would be surprising if the Browns did
put up a touchdown since their offense hasn’t produced one in five
straight games. Cleveland is averaging a puny 6.2 points in its last five
games.Now the Browns might be down to fourth-string quarterback Bruce
Gradkowski, a recent pickup. Don’t expect the Browns’ dormant offense to
come alive against the league’s No. 1 defense. Pittsburgh has dominated the
Browns,winning the past 10 in the series while covering all but one time.
The Browns surrendered 171 yards rushing to Cedric Benson last week.
Expect the Steelers’ runners to produce big games. PITTSBURGH 20-3.



New England over *Buffalo by 6
Battered but unbowed, the Patriots still have playoff hopes.They’ve won 23
of 25 December games since 2003. Matt Cassel has thrown 14 touchdowns
and been picked off four times in his last six games.The Bills have a sorry
history versus New England, losing in the past 10 meetings while failing to
cover the spread eight times. Buffalo is 0-8 ATS in the second Patriots game
of the season each of the last eight years. Marshawn Lynch (check status),
Buffalo’s best runner, is dinged-up. The Patriots have been outstanding in
this spot, covering 16 of their last 21 as road chalk. NEW ENGLAND 25-19.



*Arizona over Seattle by 10
Even if Anquan Boldin (check status) sits out again, Kurt Warner and the
Cardinals should be able to light up a vulnerable Seattle secondary.The key
is how much do the Cardinals want this game? Since clinching their first
division title in 33 years, the Cardinals haven’t shown up in their past two
games, losing at home to Minnesota and at New England in horrendous
conditions by the combined score of 82-21. Arizona may be motivated to
get Warner going again following his career-low 30-yard passing day versus
the Patriots. Seattle had only beaten the Rams twice and 49ers before upsetting
the Jets at home last Sunday.ARIZONA 33-23.



OVER/UNDER

**OVER: Carolina at New Orleans - The Panthers should be able to
run at will on the beat-up Saints defense, while Drew Brees goes to the air
often against Carolina’s secondary.


UNDER: Cleveland at Pittsburgh – The Steelers have allowed only one
team to gain 300 yards, while the Browns are 8-1-1 ‘under’ in their last 10
road games.


OVER: Seattle at Arizona – These two pass defenses have surrendered
a combined 52 touchdown passes.
 

New member
Joined
Aug 22, 2005
Messages
158
Tokens
WINNING POINTS College Bowl Games

Friday December 26
MOTOR CITY BOWL (Detroit, MI)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN over FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 12
Having too many bowls can lead to some dubious resumes, but we have to put
Florida Atlantic into a special category, with the Owls arguably bringing less to the
table than any bowl team we have every charted. They were out-classed in all four
matchups against bowl opponents, and if not for escaping with three wins vs.
lightweights (Western Kentucky by four, UL-Monroe by one, and Florida
International in overtime, after trailing by 14 with 2:10 to play), they could have
easily been 3-9. Having said that, they can be among the most dangerous of bowl
underdogs from a psychological standpoint, since they are merely glad to get an
invitation, and a few extra weeks of practicing in South Florida can be pleasant,
even if the ultimate destination is not. But while Howard Schnellenberger is 5-0
lifetime in bowl games, and will bring a loose and aggressive side, ultimately his
team is overmatched by a Chippewa squad that is making this venue a home away
from home, making a good account of themselves in each of the last two seasons
in this game (1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS). A short drive for C.M.U. fans to see Dan
LeFevour and that explosive offense (each of the last two years set attendance
records for the bowl), while the visitors will have almost no support on-site. CENTRAL
MICHIGAN 36-24.

Saturday December 27
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL (Charlotte, NC)
WEST VIRGINIA over NORTH CAROLINA by 6
A case can be made that no player in college football history has had a bigger
impact on bowl games than Pat White – in leading West Virginia to three straight
post-season victories he has directed an offense that has produced 124 points and
1,469 yards. And considering that two of those games were BCS battles vs. tough
Oklahoma and Georgia defenses, it is indeed quite a statement. White himself has
rushed for 372 yards in the victories, while also completing 30-48 passes for 427
yards and five touchdowns, without an interception. And some of the logic that
drove those performances is right there again in this one – when an opponent is
going up against White for the first time it is almost impossible to anticipate the
actual speed that he brings. We see this as a major issue for the North Carolina
defense, and yet this is priced in a pick’em range because it seemingly is a good
matchup for the Tar Heels. They do have DT’s Marvin Austin and Cam Thomas,
a pair of 300+ pound run stuffers, and as such the stats have been solid. But in
their only experience against option football those two gassed out late against
Georgia Tech, and note that even though Carolina won the game 28-7, that was
all about turnovers, with the Yellow Jackets running for 326 yards at 6.0 per
attempt. Now that duo has to do more chasing than stuffing, and the
Mountaineers can use their lack of mobility against them. A West Virginia defense
that rated #1 in the nation in the red zone can also play a part here, turning
Carolina drives into field goals instead of touchdowns, and the major edge in bowl
experience for the Mountaineers pays dividends. WEST VIRGINIA 26-20.




CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL (Orlando, FL)
FLORIDA STATE over WISCONSIN by 1
Neither if these teams expected their seasons to be ending during the 2008 calendar,
but both turned in disappointing campaigns, and in similar fashion – it was
not that they necessarily had weaknesses exposed; it was more a case of their
strengths not truly being strengths. Florida State wanted to be able to develop
playmakers on offense to turn around the recent poor performances from that unit,
but they did not have a touchdown pass of 40 yards or more in 10 lined games,
and as a team rated 91st in pass efficiency, with starting QB Christian Ponder
throwing more interceptions than touchdown passes. Meanwhile Wisconsin wanted
to use that veteran OL and deep RB corps to mash opponents, but in nine of
12 games the Badgers could not reach 200 yards rushing. And it was not as though
either coaching staff adapted well as the season went on, with Wisconsin limping
in here after rallying from second-half deficits of 14 vs. Minnesota and eight vs.
Cal Poly to escape in the last two games, while Florida State did not even compete
with Florida in that humbling finale. So with struggling teams that lack momentum
and direction the instinct is to take the kind of points that are being offered,
especially with no clear indication that the Seminoles are even the better team, and
even the regional location is not a huge edge since the Badgers tend to travel well.
If muscle over speed works in the trenches the dog can even win this outright.
FLORIDA STATE 24-23.



EMERALD BOWL (San Francisco, CA)
CALIFORNIA over MIAMI F. by 11
When the news broke that the California bowl “trip” would basically be across the
bridge, at first there were some vocal disappointments expressed. But we believe
that over time a young team that closed the season with a pair of dominating wins
will end up warming to this opportunity, as that momentum can carry into next
season for a team that has only seven senior starters. With the right focus this has
a chance to be another solid win, largely because the opposition just does not bring
all that much to the table. Miami is just 11-12 in lined games under Randy
Shannon, and what was most alarming for us to see is that the Hurricanes of
November looked the same of those that we saw in September. There was no real
sign of development, with not only a lack of tactical sophistication on offense, but
the fact that the defense was bludgeoned for 79 points and 691 rushing yards in
those losses to Georgia Tech and N. C. State to close out the campaign. The running
game did not reach 200 yards vs. a lined opponent, which puts far too much
pressure on back-up QB Jacoby Harris, who has to take over full duties for this
game after Robert Mavre was suspended for an apparent academic violation, and a
ball-hawking Cal defense (23 picks, 3rd nationally) presents a major challenge for
him. And with the rush defense vulnerable against Jahvid Best, he may have to
challenge that secondary while playing from behind much more than they would
like to. CALIFORNIA 31-20.



Sunday December 28
INDEPENDENCE BOWL (Shreveport, LA)
LOUISIANA TECH over NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 3
While some teams don’t get much spark from playing a bowl game near home, we
have heard nothing but positives from Louisiana Tech for this one, taking place at
a venue only 60 miles from campus. It is because they did not have any high
expectations, so that any kind of bowl is a reward, and we also see the pieces in
place for the Bulldogs to win the physical battle here as well. While one could look
at Tech’s #11 rating in the nation in rush defense and believe it is a matter of weak
competition and facing a lot of passing offenses, note that there was real bite in
those numbers – they held bowl-bound Boise State to 132 yards at 3.0 per carry;
Fresno to 63 at 2.4; and Nevada to 103 at 2.5. It was the season low for each of
the latter two, and the #3 low vs. Boise. That puts them in position to solidly
defend a Husky offense that never developed through the air under freshman QB
Chandler Harnish, and limps in here without confidence, having been shut out by
Navy in their final game. And while the Tech offense has also been unimposing,
the Bulldogs have not had a bye week since switching to Ross ******* at QB, which
means the month of practice leading up to this one finally means a chance to tweak
things around his abilities. LOUISIANA TECH 23-20.



Monday December 29
PAPAJOHN’S BOWL (Birmingham, AL)
RUTGERS over N. C. STATE by 3
A case of a tough luck draw for our purposes in this one, with two of the hotter
teams down the stretch (a combined 10-game win streak) both likely to have been
play-on candidates against most other December participants. But it does appear
that the momentum of one of these teams was more visible, Rutgers, than that of
the other, which still may give us something – we do not see a full touchdown difference
between these rosters. We can understand the oddsmakers quickly adjusting
the Scarlet Knights for their explosive close-out (231 points in their last five
games), since they were expected to contend for big things from the start. Why it
took the passing game so long to click with a veteran QB in Mike Teel and such
talented WR’s as Kenny Britt and Tyquan Underwood is something for Greg
Schiano and his offensive staff to work on in the off-season. But what never seemed
to catch on with the public was just how good N. C. State was once Russell Wilson
settled in at QB, with the poised and multi-talented redshirt freshman throwing
16 touchdown passes vs. only one interception, while also running for 342 yards
and four more scores. The Wolfpack also have a better ground game between the
tackles, and none of the usual matchup issues that this price range would usually
indicate, so how about a seventh straight ATS underdog cover? RUTGERS 30-27.
ALAMO BOWL (San Antonio, TX)




MISSOURI over NORTHWESTERN by 6
It looks like we have another text-book opportunity to play against a big favorite
in a minor bowl here (classifying “minor” as any game that takes place prior to
New Year’s), with the same old formula at play – we have a major favorite here that
simply will not bring the same interest to the table that the underdog will. Missouri
began this season with BCS hopes as a team and with Chase Daniel a prime contender
for the Heisman Trophy. Instead the Tigers could only go 9-4, and it was certainly not a case of getting some bad bounces, as their showdown games vs.
Texas and Oklahoma were each over at halftime, with Missouri trailing by a collective
73-10 at halftime. It was indeed a disappointing senior season for Daniel,
but it was the defense that was the real culprit, rating 119th in passing yards
allowed per game, and coming up with only 21 takeaways in 13 outings. Having
allowed 102 points and 1,065 yards in two major showdowns to end the regular
season, there is little reason to expect any kind of intense effort here, and that
opens the door for plenty of ball control from a Northwestern team that excels at
doing just that. The Wildcats can dictate the tempo here by working the clock and
piling up the first downs, making Daniel and the Missouri offense impatient, and
the confidence of winning outright in both of their road games against bowl opponents
has Pat Fitzgerald’s squad knowing that they can not only compete here, but
get the outright win. MISSOURI 34-28.




Tuesday December 30
HUMANITARIAN BOWL (Boise, ID)
NEVADA over MARYLAND by 8
We are not sure that bowls are always rewards – a Maryland team that stumbled
badly down the stretch, and if not for going 3-0 in games decided by three points
or less would have had a losing season, is not going to get any special spark by having
to make a trip to Boise. That brings in our usual policy of bucking a team with
negative momentum when the matchup itself does not light a fire, and in this case
we have tangible reasons to get behind Nevada as well. Keyed by QB Colin
Kaepernick (1,115 yards) and RB Vai Taua (1,420) the Wolfpack used their zone
read schemes to finish second in the nation in rushing offense, and they can be
quite a headache for a team that has not faced such tactics. Maryland has not. Not
only were the Terrapins soft on the road vs. the run (allowing 217.5 per game and
5.0 per carry in four outings as an A.C.C. visitor), but they were particularly ineffective
against the few mobile QB’s that they faced. Now their preparation for this
one is made even more difficult by losing defensive coordinator Chris Cosh, who
has already left for Kansas State. We will call for the Terrapin defense to be on their
heels throughout in this one, and with Nevada having a major advantage in terms
of fan support it makes it even easier for the Wolfpack to have the energy to command
the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball (they were also #3 in the
nation at stopping the run), and subsequently the game, against a flat opponent
that brings little. NEVADA 35-27.



TEXAS BOWL (Houston, TX)
RICE over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 6
It is truly fitting that the nation (at least those that will choose to watch) gets a
chance to see Chase Clement here in the final game of a brilliant career, and part
of Clement staying off of the radar screens is also part of why this line is so low –
a sizzling Owl team that closed the season 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS is getting little
respect for what is basically a home game. First the Clement story. He has already
accounted for 120 career touchdowns, 96 in the air, and 50 of those scoring passes
were caught by Jarrett Dillard, an NCAA record for a duo that will not be easy
to break. This season Clement has thrown for 3,812 yards and 41 touchdowns,
while also running for 621 and 11 more scores, while Dillard has caught 79 passes,
and is 9th on the all-time receiving yardage charts. Yet NFL scouts will say the
player that they are really drooling over is the versatile James Casey, who caught
104 passes for 1,127 yards and 12 scores, ran for 231 and six more TD’s, and also
threw a pair of touchdown passes. It takes more defensive talent than Western
Michigan brings to slow this team down, especially since under Clement’s direction
they do not beat themselves, with only seven turnovers all season. The
Broncos do have a veteran QB in Tim Hiller and a deep corps of receivers that will
find some openings, but not enough to match the pace that will be set by the
Owls. RICE 41-35.



HOLIDAY BOWL (San Diego, CA)
OREGON over OKLAHOMA STATE by 1
In a game between teams averaging 41.9 (Oregon, 7th in the nation) and 41.6
(Oklahoma State, 8th), the key will be to not look at those powerful offenses, but
rather which team is more capable of making at least a stop or two. And that is
what it will likely come down to, because while both of these offenses have been
spectacular, neither defense brings much at all to the table. But there is a catch –
while Oregon is a seasoned bowl team, and defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti has
had many such sessions of taking multiple weeks to break down an opponent,
Oklahoma State has some patching to do, with coordinator Tim Beckman already
leaving for the head coaching job at Toledo. As difficult as that is under most circumstances,
it is even moreso here because of the complex schemes that have powered
an explosive Duck ground game, something unlike anything that the
Cowboys saw in the Big 12 this season. And when you make mistakes against the
speed of the Oregon offense it can mean an explosion, with the Ducks scoring 13
offensive touchdowns on plays of 48 yards or more this season. They also enter this
game with plenty of momentum, nailing bowl-bound Arizona and Oregon State
for 120 points (three touchdowns did come on interception returns), and 1,198
yards, the latter coming at a frightening 9.5 yards per snap. But we can not make
a stronger call because they may give it up almost as quickly as they get it vs. the
balanced Cowboys. OREGON 35-34.




Wednesday December 31
ARMED FORCES BOWL (Fort Worth, TX)
HOUSTON over AIR FORCE by 6
We can call this one “The Rematch that Isn’t”, since the first go-round between
these two teams is of dubious merit in terms of making any projection here.
Houston was at a major disadvantage in that 31-28 loss, which was played in
Dallas because of Hurricane Ike, as the Cougars not only had a poor weak of practice
because of the storm, but did not even know until late in the week that they
were going to have to travel. And on a windy (gusts of up to 25 mph) and rainy
day their style of play was also hampered, although that spread offense still rolled
up 534 yards. Meanwhile Air Force was running for 380, which was just enough
to hang on in a game in which the Falcons did not complete a pass. But now many
things are different. In the first meeting it was only the third game for a new
Houston coaching staff, and they were going to have trouble preparing for the
Falcon option even with a good week of practice. Now they have ample time,
although they will have to adjust to the fact that it is no longer Shea Smith, as the
Air Force QB, but the athletic freshman Tim Jefferson. The Cougars will not shut
this offense down, but can at least make the occasional stop. We may not be able
to say the same about a slow Falcon defense that will have trouble again vs. an
explosive Cougar offense that closed the season on a run of four straight games of
600 yards or more, and with a perfect count of 20 offensive touchdowns with no
field goals in that span. HOUSTON 37-31.



SUN BOWL (El Paso, TX)
PITTSBURGH over OREGON STATE by 1
At the start of the season any kind of bowl bid would have been considered a nice
target for a rebuilding Oregon State team, but is that the case now? A month ago
they took the field against arch rival Oregon looking for a win that would have
meant the first Rose Bowl berth for the Beavers in 44 years, and they not only lost,
but were humiliated, allowing 65 points and 694 yards on their own field, with the
defense giving up more than 10 yards per snap. Now they not only have to recover
from that debacle, but they had to begin bowl preparation without Jacquizz
Rodgers, who is recovering from that shoulder injury and is not likely to be able
to return, and James Rodgers, who is out with a broken collarbone. It not only
makes a dent in terms of offensive playmakers, but perhaps for the entire attitude
of the team as they begin to put the game plan together. In Lyle Moevao and Sean
Canfield they have complimentary performers at QB, but not guys that can carry
a load. Pittsburgh brings balance without sex appeal, with the steady running of
LeSean McCoy and a passing attack that can move the chains without much ability
to strike deep, but the Panthers can get physical in the trenches against a defensive
front that seemed to wear down towards the end of the season. But how well
will Pittsburgh fare from a preparation standpoint, in the first bowl game under
this coaching staff, while the Beavers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the post-season
under Mike Riley? PITTSBURGH 21-20.




MUSIC CITY BOWL (Nashville, TN)
BOSTON COLLEGE over VANDERBILT* by 2
Through the years loyal readers of these pages will have noticed the common
thread of teams playing a minor bowl game at or near home usually not being all
that excited about it, and the pattern has held up well. That is not the case here at
all with Vanderbilt, as the Commodores get their first post-season appearance in
26 years, and are thrilled about it. And in terms of the psychology of the setting,
they hold a major advantage over a Boston College team that was just a win in the
A.C.C. title game away from playing in the BCS Orange Bowl. But how far can
we take pure energy, in terms of overcoming talent and experience? The bottom
line is that the Commodores are simply not very good, and bring little momentum
to the table, going 1-6 in their last seven games, and only scoring more than 14
points once since September 20th. The offense lacks the ability to either run or
pass with any force, and did not score a touchdown on a play of 40 yards or more
all season. That means trouble against a staunch Eagle defense, and one that brings
plenty of savvy at bowl preparation, having won eight in a row. But we do like the
Vanderbilt secondary, which has a couple of NFL-bound players, and their coverage
abilities free up the LB’s to do some blitzing, which might create mistakes out
of young B. C. QB Dominique Davis, who is making only his third start. That is
enough to make it tight. BOSTON COLLEGE 19-17.




INSIGHT BOWL (Tempe, AZ)
KANSAS over MINNESOTA by 12
Yes, we know all about the record of double-figure underdogs in these December
bowls, having cashed tickets with many of them in the past, and almost always
making that the starting point in any handicap. But the usual ingredients are not
there in this one. First, this spot is not a disappointment for a Kansas team that
was expecting bigger things; it is the first time in the history of the program the
Jayhawks have gone to back-to-back bowls, and the momentum from that closing
win over Missouri will bring a lot of spark to their practices. And in truth 7-5 was
not bad against the schedule they played, with all of the losses coming to bowl
teams, and three to Top 10 opponents. In Todd Reesing they have a savvy QB that
makes good decisions, and Reesing has a terrific rhythm with Kerry Meier short
(87 catches at 10.7 with seven touchdowns) and Dezmon Briscoe long (79 at 15.5,
with 12 scores). They reached at least 250 yards passing in 10 of 12 games, and it
would have been 11 of 12 if they had not gone conservative with a huge lead vs.
Kansas State. Meanwhile we can not call this a “reward” for a Minnesota team that
collapsed down the stretch in an 0-4 slide, including a disastrous 55-0 home loss
to Iowa in the final game. The Golden Gophers did not rush for 100 yards in any
of those games, which has led to Tim Davis being fired and Phil Meyer already
brought in as OL coach and running game coordinator, and while that can help in
terms of next season, those tactical changes will only confuse matters right now for
a sagging team. KANSAS 38-26.




CHICK-FIL-A BOWL (Atlanta, GA)
GEORGIA TECH over L.S.U. by 6
Paul Johnson’s first season at Georgia Tech was a stunner, as he not only got his
new playbook almost completely installed in what was expected to be only a
rebuilding campaign, but the Yellow Jackets actually thrived, despite being new to
option football, and not having a single senior starting in the OL. The key is that
there were mobile QB’s to work with in Josh Nesbitt and Jaybo Shaw; Jonathan
Dwyer keyed a decent RB corps; the WR’s were particularly good at downfield
blocking; and that young OL took well to these schemes better than a more veteran
corps might have. And it is no surprise that they got better as the plays mounted,
gashing bowl-bound Miami and Georgia for 86 points and 881 rushing yards
in their last two games. Particularly note what happened to Georgia, after Tech had
earlier rolled for 38 points and 438 yards against Mississippi State, showing what
can happen against an S.E.C. team that does not see much of these tactics at all.
Now L.S.U. steps into an environment filled with Yellow Jacket fans, and the
Tigers are just the kind of team that Johnson can expose the most – while they are
loaded with athleticism on defense, that leads to playing overly aggressive at times,
which opens the lanes for big plays. And that muddled Tiger QB situation does not
necessarily get any better with the extra practice time, especially with Andrew
Hatch and Jarrett Lee healthy again, meaning that they combine with Jordan
Jefferson to split the playing time, not enabling any of the three to get the reps that
they need. GEORGIA TECH 26-20.



Thursday January 1
OUTBACK BOWL (Tampa, FL)
IOWA over SOUTH CAROLINA by 5
A typical football season is filled with many ironies, but few stories were as intriguing
as what happened at South Carolina this season – in his fourth season, and
with new defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson on board, Steve Spurrier finally put
together a first class defense, with his Gamecocks rating 11th nationally in total
defense, and #3 in pass efficiency defense. Yet all it could turn into was a disappointing
7-5 because of what could not be expected, as the Old Ball Coach simply
could not put together an offense. The Gamecocks were awful across the board,
rating 97th in total offense, 92nd in scoring, 109th in rushing and 90th in pass
efficiency, with multiple switches back and forth from Chris Smelley to Stephen
Garcia not helping. And given how the offense failed in those major showdowns
vs. Florida and Clemson to close out the schedule (20 points and 477 yards in the
two games combined, with eight turnovers) there is little reason to believe anything
changes here. By the way, now it is Garcia’s turn again. Iowa came close to being
something special this season, with all four losses coming by five points or less, and
while the Hawkeyes also do not have anything special at QB in Ricky Stanzi, they
do have the nation’s best RB in Shonn Greene (1,729 yards at 6.2 per carry, with
17 rushing TD’s), which provides them with a sense of direction that Carolina
lacks. IOWA 24-19.




GATOR BOWL (Jacksonville, FL)
NEBRASKA over CLEMSON by 2
It has been a long time since a team that accomplished as little on the field as
Clemson did this season was rewarded with a New Year’s appearance, but in a balanced
and mediocre A.C.C. the Tigers managed to go 4-4, and then somehow
“negotiate” their way to this venue, despite the fact that three conference teams
with better records, including two that beat them head-to-head, will have already
packed up their equipment for the season before this one kicks off. And while there
is at least some continuity with Dabo Swinney keeping the coaching job full-time,
we are not sure there is a cohesive staff putting this game plan together – he has
already announced the hiring of three new assistants, who are not on board for this
game but do pose a distraction to those currently on hand, while defensive coordinator
Vic Koenning has announced his resignation after this one is over, and will
almost assuredly have a similar position at another school lined up soon. That does
not give us a whole lot of confidence in the Tigers as favorites, and while they do
bring the better defense to the table, Nebraska improved dramatically on that side
of the ball under Bo Pelini, stirring hopes that the “Black Shirts” will soon be back.
The offense is also a much smoother machine with the heady leadership of QB Joe
Ganz, and keep in mind that for all of the talk about Clemson’s RB tandem of
James Davis and C. J. Spiller, the Tigers reached 200 yards rushing one time in 11
lined games. NEBRASKA 26-24.




CAPITAL ONE BOWL (Orlando, FL)
GEORGIA over MICHIGAN STATE by 11
It never “happened” at Georgia this season. A team loaded with future NFL 1st
round draft choices in the skill positions was hampered early by an OL that needed
time to develop, and a defense that never did find itself. So instead of playing
for all of the marbles this is what they are relegated to. That means that this could
be an all-or-nothing affair, as they could either come out flat off of the disappointing
campaign, or vent some frustrations and perhaps play their best game of
the season. While much of that is a guessing game, we will let the opposition provide
us with our direction here. Michigan State had two step-up games against
BCS teams, and got bludgeoned by a combined 94-25 vs. Ohio State and Penn
State. And while much of the buildup here will focus on Javon Ringer challenging
the Georgia defense, the bottom line is that the Spartans actually do not have
much of a ground game. It was one thing for Ohio State and Penn State to outmuscle
them 354-87 overland, but check their other results vs. bowl opponents –
they were whipped 203-81 at California; were mashed 281-25 at home vs.
Wisconsin; could only muster 91 yards to Iowa’s 151 despite being at home; and
at Northwestern they lost that battle 176-128. Get the picture? When their
“strength” is actually nothing special they are not ready for this class yet, and their
weaknesses might help to provide Georgia with the ability to make early plays and
create a spark. GEORGIA 31-20.



ROSE BOWL (Pasadena, CA)
SOUTHERN CAL over PENN STATE by 7
It is a common practice to study the psychology of teams involved in the minor
bowls, since many of them are not truly receiving the rewards that they were looking
for. But can that actually be the case in a BCS affair? It just might be here. Pete
Carroll and his Trojans began practice in the spring thinking National
Championship, with anything less considered a failure. Now not only did they
miss their target, but they also end up in the Rose Bowl for the fourth straight season.
Yes, there is plenty of pageantry for this event, but they have seen it all before,
and where did they play their final regular season game? On this very field. There
is a certain professionalism that Carroll and his staff bring, and the Trojans may
have more talent than any team in the land, but we do not expect to see the best
they have to offer in this one. Contrast that with a Penn State team that has played
beyond expectations this season, and brings the kind of speed on defense that can
thwart a Southern Cal offense that never did develop a rhythm, failing to dominate
opponents either overland or through the air. But making a stronger call to
the underdog is not easy because the Nittany Lions will find their points difficult
to come by. Their spread attack was based on creating mismatches against slower
defenders, but those are not available here, and when forced to make plays on his
own, QB Daryll Clark has been little more than average against class competition.
SOUTHERN CAL 23-16.



ORANGE BOWL (Miami, FL)
CINCINNATI over VIRGINIA TECH by 6
For all of the various criticisms about the BCS, one of the prime ones does not get
talked about often enough – the automatic linking to various conferences, which
forced this matchup despite the fact that neither of these teams belong here. But
we take the cards that are dealt, and they just might give us a hand that we can win.
There are similarities galore here, with both teams boasting quickness and tenacity
on defense and solid special teams, with also ground games that under-achieved.
But then it comes to the big gap, passing the football. For Virginia Tech there was
never a sign of development, starting with Frank Beamer’s misguided notion of
red-shirting Tyrod Taylor and letting the less-mobile Sean Glennon run the show.
Glennon would have been fine if the Hokies could run the ball, but they could not.
And while Taylor’s athleticism presents some challenges for defenses, his throwing
ability does not command any respect. So Tech finished 107th in the nation in
total offense and 98th in pass efficiency, which is most dubious for an Orange
Bowl, and that unit gets further weakened by the loss of Nick Marshman up front.
Meanwhile Cincinnati had to deal with injuries at the QB position, but things
came together when Tony Pike was healthy – he completed 62.9 percent of his
passes, for 2,168 yards and 18 touchdowns, and if anything gets a major boost
from the extra practices for this game. He was not the starter in August, and this
added time to build a game plan around his skills may do wonders for the Bearcats.
CINCINNATI 23-17.




Friday January 2
COTTON BOWL (Dallas, TX)
TEXAS TECH over MISSISSIPPI by 2
It is not surprising to see Texas Tech installed as the favorites here – the Red Raiders
flirted with the BCS championship game until that loss at Oklahoma, and in
Graham Harrell have an electric performer that may even bring a chip on his
shoulder after not even being invited to the Heisman Trophy ceremonies. It is also
not surprising to see Ole Miss as the underdog, since the public never really caught
on to how good Houston Nutt’s team was. So we end up with the line that we
expected, and a chance to take a fair number in a game that could easily go to the
final possession. For the Rebels to go 8-4 was quite an achievement in Nutt’s first
season, but he was in the right place at the right time, not only inheriting some
decent talent, but also being able to lay out the welcome mat as Texas transfer Jevan
Sneed became eligible at QB. All four of the losses were by a single touchdown or
less, all vs. bowl teams, and in reality how many teams could play Florida and
Alabama, both on the road, and only come away trailing 54-51 after eight quarters?
There will be the obvious tactical difficulties of matching up against Mike
Leach’s complex offensive schemes, but in Peria Jerry and Greg Hardy they bring
one of the best pass rushing combinations in the nation, and that may be just
enough to keep Harrell from finding his full rhythm, which is about as much as
any defense can realistically be expected to do. TEXAS TECH 33-31.



LIBERTY BOWL (Memphis, TN)
EAST CAROLINA over KENTUCKY by 1
Instead of looking at game films and statistics to get the best read on this one, it
might be better to check the infirmary reports, with both of these teams forced to
play through injuries through the season, keeping them from attaining higher
goals. And both had them across the board, with Kentucky losing key players on
each side of the ball, and East Carolina having a remarkable count of 44 different
players start at least one game. So who gets the nod? We call it close, based on the
best projections that we have. Those projections tell us that Kentucky will likely be
back to Mike Hartline, who started the first eight games, at QB, with Randall
Cobb not fully ruled out following knee surgery, but unlikely to go. With a couple
of practice weeks, Hartline should not have much problem getting back into
rhythm, and the Wildcats gets a boost from DE Jeremy Jarmon, DT Ricky
Lumpkin and DB Marcus McClinton all returning on defense; when all hands
were on deck this was the best unit Rich Brooks has had in Lexington. The Pirates
also bring a solid defensive unit to the table and a veteran QB in Patrick Pinkney,
who established himself as the leader once Skip Holtz went away from rotating him
with Rob Kass at the position. What they did not have was any kind of replacement
for the mercurial Chris Johnson, a rare talent for this level of program, so the
running game never did become a weapon. EAST CAROLINA 20-19.



SUGAR BOWL (New Orleans, LA)
ALABAMA over UTAH by 18
Just one year ago on this field we called for our biggest bowl advantage with an
over-rated team from a non-BCS conference having to step up against an SEC
power, and it worked to a charm as Georgia dominated Hawaii from the opening
kickoff in an ugly rout. We believe that some parts of this matchup are similar, but
since the gap shows up more in terms of a domination of the trenches than an
explosion of big plays, the final scoreboard will not show a completely one-sided
result. But it should show a substantial edge to the Crimson Tide. Utah can take
pride in an undefeated season, but the resume is a shallow one. The Utes were fundamentally
sound enough to not beat themselves, and that created the ability to
escape with a 4-0 record in games decided by three points or less, and also with a
seven-point win over Air Force in a game that was tied into the final minute. If
they lost just one of those five games they are not in this bowl, so it took quite a
roll of the dice. In QB Brian Johnson and that spread offense they have weapons
that can exploit weaknesses in defenses of a lower class, but there is not the speed
or playmaking ability to find weaknesses vs. the defense that Alabama brings, and
particularly against a team that just saw an Urban Meyer playbook in their last outing
(Utah is still running much of what Meyer installed there). And when it comes
to being fundamentally sound few offenses took care of the football as well as the
Tide, with one turnover or none in 11 of 13 games. That eventually wears down a
Utah defense that will have to spend far too much time on the field, while Johnson
lacks the receivers to play from behind. ALABAMA 31-13.
 

New member
Joined
Aug 22, 2005
Messages
158
Tokens
Logical Approach 12/26-

As we have done for many seasons we will have selections on both Sides and Totals in every Bowl game, using a five tiered scale to indicate the strength of selections. Here's how the Star ratings relate to the strength of the recommendations/opinions:

Rating Strength of Selection Units or % of Bankroll

5 Star Best of the Best - Our Strongest Recommendation 3.0 Units - 5.0% of BR
4 Star A Best Bet - A Strong Recommendation 2.0 Units - 3.0% of BR
3 Star A Solid Opinion - Worth a Regular Play 1.0 Unit - 2.0% of BR
2 Star A Slight Opinion 0.5 Unit - 1.0% of BR
1 Star A Lean - We'll Just Sit and Watch ? ? ?



Motor City- Detroit, MI - Friday, December 26, 2008


Central Michigan should enjoy a huge crowd advantage with the short 2 ½ hour drive to Detroit while very few FAU followers are expected to make the trip. Both teams have plenty of offense and have enjoyed excellent play from the QB position. Although both teams play in minor conferences both were tested against BCS teams this season, though neither had much success. FAU lost at Texas, Michigan State and Minnesota (all Bowl teams) by a combined 106-13 score. CMU lost at Georgia and Purdue by a combined 88-42. Other than being held to just 17 points in the Georgia loss, CMU scored at least 24 points in all other games, topping 30 points in 6 games. In their 9 games against non-BCS teams FAU scored 40 points or more 4 times but was also held to 24 or less 4 times. CMU was excellent at protecting the football, losing just 11 turnovers all season, # 3 in the nation. FAU turned it over 28 times. CMU has a slight edge on offense while FAU has an almost similar slight edge on defense. CMU has the better rush defense with their weakness against the pass, an area in which FAU ranks highly. This is FAU's eighth season as a football program and they are making a second straight Bowl trip, having defeated Memphis 44-27 in last season's New Orleans Bowl. CMU is in a third straight Bowl after splitting the past two seasons, losing to Purdue last season after defeating Middle Tennessee (from FAU's Sun Belt conference). The line seems fair as CMU has faced tougher foes and enjoys a huge site edge. They've played several games in this building over the past few seasons. This is not one of the stronger plays of the Bowl season but the call is for Central Michigan to win 44-30, making CENTRAL MICHIGAN a 2 Star Selection and also the OVER a 2 Star Selection



Meineke Car Care Bowl - Charlotte, NC - Saturday, December 27, 2008

North Carolina enjoys a regional site and home state advantage but West Virginia historically travels well and should be nicely represented at this game. Carolina made some fine progress in coach Butch Davis' second season as Tar Heel boss which included a pair of road upset wins at Rutgers and Miami, Fla. They could easily have been 11-1 as 3 of their 4 losses were by a FG or less. West Virginia played their best football in mid season following a 1-2 start and going just 2-2 down the stretch. The running game was solid and the Mounties topped 300 rushing yards 3 times. Both teams played and defeated both Connecticut and Rutgers. Carolina won both games but were outgained in each, winning at Rutgers 44-12 and at home vs U Conn 38-12. West Virginia faced both at home, defeating Rutgers 24-17 and U Conn 35-13, outgaining both foes. Overall the ACC was a stronger conference this season. From our issue 2 weeks ago we showed that the average Power Rating of Big East teams declined by more than a FG this season! West Virginia faced 6 teams playing in Bowls and went 3-3 vs those teams. Against the better teams in their conference West Virginia lost to both Pitt and Cincinnati. Carolina went 6-3 against fellow Bowlers with their most impressive wins occurring in back to back games against Boston College (45-24) and Georgia Tech (28-7). WVU has the better known athletes, especially QB White, but Carolina is the stronger defensive team and also is arguably better coached. Their overall performance this season and their site advantage can make a case that they should be favored by a FG or more. After playing in - and winning - last season's Fiesta Bowl over Oklahoma - and having higher expectations for this season - West Virginia's motivation is questionable in making a seventh straight Bowl appearance. After a 3 season absence North Carolina returns to a Bowl game which should mean much greater enthusiasm. All in all, there are more things to like about Carolina than about West Virginia. North Carolina win 23-17, making NORTH CAROLINA a 4 Star Selection and the UNDER 1 2 Star Selection .



Champs Sports Bowl - Orlando, FL - Saturday, December 27, 2008

Both teams have been frequent Bowlers over the past decade with Wisconsin making a seventh straight Bowl trip (and eleventh in 12 years) while Florida State has been to a Bowl every season since 1982! Both teams had seasons that can best be described as below average given their histories over the years so it's hard to see either team looking at this Bowl game as much of a reward as each team had higher aspirations. Wisky plays more of a physical, plodding style of football, common in the Big 10 where the passing game often takes a back seat to the ground game. The Badgers had an undistinguished season with no wins of note. Their only wins over Bowl teams were a pair of 3 point wins over Fresno State and Minnesota. They ended the season with a narrow 1 point overtime win against a FCS/Division I-AA team, Cal Poly, needing a late TD and 2 point conversion to force OT. Florida State has wins over 5 teams headed to Bowls although all were against fellow ACC teams. 4 of the 5 wins were by at least 9 points and 3 of the wins were on the road. FSU does enjoy a same state advantage in Orlando although Wisconsin historically travels well. Statistically both teams in the top quarter of the nation in rushing offense nation but in the bottom third in passing offense. FSU does have the better defensive stats but it must be noted that the Seminoles had 2 games against FCS competition as compared to just the one game cited above for Wisconsin. FSU does enjoy a speed advantage over Wisky and that often is more significant on defense and special teams. It was hoped to be able to play AGAINST both of these teams before they were matched against one another. Florida State has the better athletes and accomplished more during the regular season, so asking them to win by a TD is the preferred option. FSU showed more improvement over the course of the season. This is not one of the more attractive Bowls as is evidenced by the relative weakness of the selection. Florida State wins 28-20, making FLORIDA STATE a 1 Star Selection and the UNDER a 2 Star Selection .



Emerald Bowl - San Francisco, CA - Saturday, December 27, 2008

This is practically a home game for Cal while Miami has to travel over 3,000 miles to play in what is a minor Bowl game. Miami is a young and talented team and second year coach Randy Shannon appears to have turned things around and the future is bright for the Hurricanes. Cal had yet another solid season but again fell short of expectations of challenging for the Pac 10 title and being a player in the national title picture. Cal is in a Bowl for a sixth straight season and have won 4 of the previous 5, including the last 3 in a row. Miami's streak of 9 straight Bowls ended last season when they slipped to 5-7. Cal ended their season winning their final two games against a pair of non-Bowl teams. Miami lost their last two games to teams headed to Bowls after winning 5 in a row. Miami did not have a notable non-conference win this season. They did hang in at Florida, losing 26-3, but were greatly outgained 345-140. Cal's most significant non-conference win was at home in their opener, defeating Michigan State 38-31. They did fare well as a solid favorite, going 7-1 S/U and 6-1-1 ATS. Miami was an underdog of more than 3 points just once, covering in the loss at Florida by a half point. Cal has the better overall stats with the defenses fairly even but Cal having an edge on offense with a stronger running game. The greatest statistical disparity between the teams shows up on defense with forced turnovers. Miami's defense had just 13 takeaways all season. Cal's defense forced 33 turnovers, # 3 in the nation. That could be significant given Miami's youth and the distant site. It is generally easier to wipe the rust of a running game than the passing game after a layoff and that favors Cal, the better rushing team, with both teams having similar success in the passing game. The call is for California to win 27-17, making CALIFORNIA a 2 Star Selection and the UNDER a 3 Star Selection



Independence Bowl - Shreveport, LA - Sunday, December 28, 2008

Both teams rebounded from losing seasons in 2007 to earn this Bowl bid. The site greatly favors Louisiana Tech and the crowd support for Northern Illinois is expected to be minimal. NIU does have an edge in recent Bowl experience, having gone to 3 straight Bowls before missing last season. Tech's most recent Bowl was back in 2001. Tech's best win this season came in their first game, a home win over Mississippi State, a team that went on to have a losing season but an SEC team nonetheless. NIU also played well against an SEC foe, losing 13-9 at Tennessee in mid season. The Huskies also lost at Minnesota to open the season. The fundamental matchups favor Louisiana Tech as Northern Illinois' passing attack is weak while LT's defensive weakness is against the pass. Similarly, Tech has a potent running attack and while NIU's seasonal stats are decent they allowed 3 of their last 4 foes to rush for over 215 yards. Northern Illinois did post the better overall defensive stats but their strength is against the pass. Tech is a running team and NIU is just average against the run. One are in which the Tech defense has excelled has been in allowing a meager 3.0 yards per rush, one of the lowest averages in the nation. While both teams figure to be excited to be here the site edge and the rarity of a Bowl game for Tech should add up to more intangibles favoring them. Louisiana Tech wins by 31-23, making LOUISIANA TECH a 3 Star Selection and the OVER a 1 Star Selection



Papajohns.com Bowl - Birmingham, AL - Monday, December 29, 2008

These teams overcame sluggish starts to their seasons to finish strongly. It was hoped that their Bowl matchups would allow a play on each of them but as they are matched against one another a choice between them must be made. Even with their slow starts the teams combined for a stellar 15-5-2 ATS record. Rutgers closed the season on a 7-0-1 pointspread run while State covered each of their final 6 games. Rutgers is in a Bowl for a fourth straight season, winning the last two. NC State is back after a two season absence but had been to 7 Bowls between 1998 and 2005. Wolfpack coach Tom O'Brien had great success in Bowls while at Boston College. During his 10 years at BC O'Brien led his teams to 8 Bowls, winning the last 7 in a row and covering in 6 of those 7. Both teams faced North Carolina and South Florida and each went 1-1 with remarkably similar results. Rutgers beat South Florida by 33 and lost to Carolina by 32. State defeated Carolina by 31 but lost to South Florida also by 31. Total yardage stats for the games against the 2 common foes shows Rutgers + 22 (804 to 782) and State + 8 (731 to 723). For the season Rutgers does have edges in the passing game, both on offense and defense, and that may be enough to justify the solid favoritism they have been shown. But in most areas these teams are fairly even and getting at least a TD with a team playing as well as NC State played down the stretch and with a coach as accomplished in Bowl games as is O'Brien tilts the scales towards the underdog. Rutgers' passing game is enough to pull out the straight up win but the expectation is for the points to matter in this contest. Rutgers wins 27-24, making NORTH CAROLINA STATE a 3 Star Selection and the UNDER a 1 Star Selection .



Alamo Bowl - San Antonio, TX - Monday, December 29, 2008

Over the years Northwestern has been a good barometer for the strength of the Big 10 conference. Because of their high academic standards, when Northwestern's football team earns a Bowl bid it's generally a sign that the Big 10 is having a down season. The Bowl results reflect this, both in terms of Northwestern's individual results and those of the Big 10 a s a whole. Over the past 20+ seasons Northwestern has been to just 5 Bowls. Those appearances came between 1995 and 2005. Northwestern is 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ATS in their Bowls, losing by an average score of 47-28. In those same 5 seasons the Big 10's Bowl record is 14-20 straight up and 11-23 ATS. Missouri is in their fourth straight Bowl, having won in 2 of the past 3 Bowls. In each of the 3 Bowls Missouri scored exactly 38 points and this bowl should feature plenty of scoring by both teams as each team's offense is a strength whereas the defenses have been weaknesses. To be fair, Mizzou faced much tougher competition in the Big 12 than Northwestern did in the Big 10. Both teams faced Illinois this season. Missouri opened the season with a neutral site 52-42 win over the Illini in a game featuring nearly 1,100 yards of total offense, nearly evenly divided. Northwestern ended their season with a 27-10 home win over Illinois in a game in which the total yards were again almost evenly divided. Missouri played the overall tougher schedule - their 13 foes were a combined 83-63 S/U and 78-59 ATS. Northwestern's foes were just 69-75 S/U and a poor 55-64-4 ATS. Missouri has outstanding talent at the skill positions including QB Daniel and TE Macklin who should give the NW defense problems. There was only one true offensive powerhouse in the Big 10 this season, Penn State, and Northwestern did not have to face them this season. Given the potency of the Missouri offense and the fact that Mizzou has faced far tougher competition, combined with the poor Bowl record of Missouri, suggests Missouri should be able put plenty of points on the board and ultimately get clear of the impost. To be sure, Missouri will also surrender its share of points but in the end Missouri will distance itself from the Wildcats in a high scoring game. The call is for Missouri to win 48-30, making MISSOURI a 4 Star Selection and also the OVER a 4 Star Selection .
 

New member
Joined
Aug 22, 2005
Messages
158
Tokens
Logical Approach 12/28-


NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: ARIZONA - 5 over Seattle - Arizona does not want to limp into the Playoffs but the Cards have lost their last two games by a combined 61 points and have lost 4 of their last 5 games overall. Seattle has been more competitive in recent weeks and have won two straight. This is coach Mike Holmgren's last game on the Seahawk sidelines but his team got him a highly desired win last week at home. Arizona is likely to be much more motivated for a confidence building effort prior to hosting a Wild Card game next week. The Cards have fared much better at home in ideal climatic conditions than they have on the road, especially when traveling east where they have suffered their most lopsided losses. Seattle has had major injury concerns all season. The key here is Arizona's motivation and need for a strong effort even and when their offense is clicking few teams can keep pace. Arizona wins handily, 34-20.



Other Featured NFL Selections :

INDIANAPOLIS + 3 over Tennessee - Both teams' Playoff seeds are locked in and thus both may rest key players. Tennessee will have a Bye next week while the Colts will host a Wild Card game. Tennessee is still banged up with several key defenders out with injuries and teams have generally struggled the week after playing Pittsburgh. The Titans could also be in for a bit of letdown after their top seed clinching win over the Steelers last week while the Colts have also had several extra days of rest. Barring upsets down the road this is likely coach Dungy's last home game as coach of the Colts, having announced prior to the season his decision to retire at season's end. Tennessee won the first meeting 31-21 even though they were outgained by the Colts 317-281. And while Indy's offense likely features many backups, Tennessee's defense is still without two key players. And the Titans could have an emotional letdown after last week's huge win over Pittsburgh. Indy's won their last 5 home games after starting 0-2 in their new digs. Indianapolis wins 20-17.



M Y JETS - 3 over Miami - This should be a great game as both teams need to win. A Miami wins gives them the AFC East Title and the number 3 seed. A Jets win gives New York the Title if New England, playing earlier in the day, loses in Buffalo. That could make this game moot for the Jets but they figure to play hard regardless. Miami's story has been astounding after going 1-15 last season and then cleaning house in the off season. Part of that process included the mid summer signing of ex-Jets QB Chad Pennington after the Jets traded for ex Green Bay QB Brett Favre. Pennington has been solid, displaying great leadership and rarely turning the ball over. Prior to last week's shootout in Kansas City, Miami's defense had not allowed a TD for 3 straight game. Miami has won 8 of their last 9 games while the Jets are 9-2 in games not played on the west coast. New York Jets win 24-17.



SAN FRANCISCO - 3 over Washington - San Francisco is finishing strong, winning 3 of 4, as Mike Singletary is making an effort to be named permanent coach. The defense has shown marked improvement over the second half of the season. Each of their last 4 foes has been held to 16 points or less. The offense remains a work in progress but progress has been shown. Most importantly, Singletary has changed the attitude of the team and they have played more aggressively. Washington's strong 6-2 start is a distant memory. The 'Skins have tallied 13 points or less in each of their last 4 games and in 6 of their last 7. They got some satisfaction from last week's home win over Philadelphia but still were eliminated from the Playoffs. They figure to have little motivation making the cross country trip while the Niners have been re-energized and are looking to make a statement to management about their 'interim' coach. San Francisco wins 23-10.




Best of the NFL Totals

Oakland/Tampa Bay UNDER 39
Dallas/Philadelphia UNDER 42 ½
N Y Giants/Minnesota UNDER 42
Carolina/New Orleans OVER 53
Kansas City/Cincinnati UNDER 38
Seattle/Arizona OVER 45
Washington/San Francisco UNDER 37
Denver/San Diego OVER 50
 

New member
Joined
Aug 22, 2005
Messages
158
Tokens
Pointwise Bowls 12/29--1/1

All bowl games are rated 1-6. Games rated 1-4 are Key Releases, with 1 being the highest rating. Games rated "5" are considered Best of the Rest.
Games rated "6" are light opinions only.

Pointwise choices are in bold print.

Monday, Dec. 29
Papajohns Bowl (Birmingham, AL)
Rutgers 38, NC State 24
Rating--6

Alamo Bowl (San Antonio)
Missouri 38, Northwestern 20
Rating--6

Tuesday, Dec. 30
Humanitarian Bowl (Boise, ID)
Nevada 38, Maryland 27
Rating--1

Texas Bowl (Houston)
Rice 41, Western Michigan 31
Rating--5

Holiday Bowl (San Diego)
Oregon (+) 40, Oklahoma State 34
Rating--2

Wednesday, Dec. 31
Armed Forces Bowl (Ft. Worth, TX)
Houston 38, Air Force 31
Rating--6

Sun Bowl (El Paso)
Oregon State 33, Pittsburgh 20
Rating--5

Music City Bowl (Nashville)
Boston College 23, Vanderbilt (+)22
Rating--6

Insight Bowl (Tempe, AZ)
Kansas 31, Minnesota (+) 27
Rating--5

Chick-Fil-A Bowl (Atlanta)
Georgia Tech 34, LSU 24
Rating--3

Thursday, Jan. 1
Outback Bowl (Tampa)
Iowa 27, South Carolina 17
Rating--2

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville)
Nebraska (+) 30, Clemson 27
Rating--4

Capital One Bowl (Orlando)
Georgia 38, Michigan State 20
Rating--2

Rose Bowl (Pasadena)
USC 38, Penn State 24
Rating--4

Orange Bowl (Miami)
Cincinnati 20, Virginia Tech 14
Rating--6
 

New member
Joined
Aug 22, 2005
Messages
158
Tokens
Pointwise Writeups

MOTOR CITY BOWL
AT DETROIT, MICHIGAN
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (8-4) vs FLORIDA ATLANTIC (6-6)
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 26
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Cent Mich ... 39.9 .. 30-31 .. 23-22 .. 134-139 .. 293-286.. + 4 . Cent Mich
Fla Atlantic . 36.1 .. 25-29 .. 20-22 .. 141-183 .. 251-219.. - 9 . by 7.2 Pts
ANALYSIS
Defense! Defense! Surely, that's not the byword, as far as either of these two
teams are concerned. Check the score of the final game for each squad: a
57-50 win for the Owls of Florida Atlantic, and a 56-52 loss for the Chippewas
of Central Michigan. The Owls needed it for a "bowl eligible" 6-6 record, after
opening at 1-5, following '07's campaign, in which they finished at 8-5, with a
44-27 thrashing of Memphis in the New Orleans Bowl (20½ pt cover). The
Chips, on the other hand, were safely ensconced in a bowl slot, before losing
to 3-8 EasternMich, to wind up a disappointing season. We say disappointing,
as they had won the MAC in '06 & '07, with resounding 31-10 & 35-10 rompers
in their conference title games (24½ & 22 pt covers). Led by Dan LeFevour,
who has been a brilliant manager, throwing for 8,760 yds & 67 TDs the past 3
years, the Chippewas have posted a 26-14 mark in '06, '07, & '08. But their
bane is a "D" which ranks 105th, overall, allowing 38 ppg in their last 4 outings.
As noted above, the Owls needed a spectacular finish to get to this point. A
check above shows the overwhelming edge to Central, in the all-important TO
category, as FAU turned the ball over at least twice in 9 of its 12 games, & at
least 3 times in 5 games. Pure suicide here, if they are to continue that trend.
But like the Chips, FlaAtlantic is led by a proven QB in the person of Rusty
Smith, who finished the year with 2,918 PYs & 22 TDs, including 389 PYs & 5
TDs in his last game vs FlaInternational. We would love to grab the TD & the
Owls, but a year ago, FAU led the nation in TO ratio (+19), & that stat just can't
be overemphasized. Fifth game on this field for Chips in last 3 years. Grab it.
PROPHECY: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 48 - Florida Atlantic 37 RATING: 5





MEINEKE BOWL
AT CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA

WEST VIRGINIA (8-4) vs NORTH CAROLINA (8-4)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27
1:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
W Virginia .. 43.2 .. 24-16 .. 18-20 .. 217-135 .. 135-191.. +12 . W Virginia
N Carolina .. 44.3 .. 28-20 .. 16-20 .. 125-141 .. 192-217.. + 6 . by 5.7 Pts
ANALYSIS
Seventh straight bowl appearance for the Mountaineers of West Virginia, the
first under the tutelage of Bill Stewart, who inherited the unenviable task of
replacing Rich Rodriguez, who led the Mounties to 11-win seasons in each of
the past 3 years. The trigger, of course, is QB White, who has sent tremors
through more than a few opposing defenses over the past 4 seasons. He not
only is dynamite, overhead (1,510 yds, 18 TDs, & only 6 INTs), but is near
impossible to bring down in the open field, rushing for 919 yds. Ditto a year
ago, when he finished 9th in passing efficiency, with 1,724 yds (14/4). He has
averaged 7.3, 7.4, 6.9, & 5.4 in rushing for 4,425 yds the past 4 years. Gone
is running mate, Steve Slaton, but Devine is no slouch, with his 1,228 RYs (6.4
ypr). Add to that, a defense, which ranks 9th in scoring, & you have a near
unbeatable team, right? Technically, yes, but this year's results have been a
major step down from the past 3 years, when WVa ranked 4th, 3rd, & 3rd in
rushing, while scoring at 32, 39, & 40 ppg clips. A ticking bomb, to be sure, but
the results pale in comparison to recent editions. The Tar Heels of North
Carolina return to the bowl scene for the first time since the '04 Continental, &
for just the 2nd time in a decade. That's right, this marks only their 2nd winning
year since 1998. Thus, Butch Davis is obviously righting this listing ship,
altho it certainly isn't overland, where the Tars rank a lowly 87th, never topping
187 yds. So it's overhead, right. Wrong: just 83rd, altho Sexton & Yates have
combined for 18 TDs & 2,218 yds. But note 'Heels 45-24 FD deficit in their
stretch run losses to Maryland & NCSt. Home field is not enough for Carolina.
PROPHECY: WEST VIRGINIA 27 - North Carolina 17 RATING: 2




CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
AT ORLANDO, FLORIDA

FLORIDA STATE (8-4) vs WISCONSIN (7-5)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27
4:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Florida St ... 48.3 .. 33-21 .. 20-17 .. 180-127 .. 186-165.. - 3 . Florida St
Wisconsin .. 44.8 .. 28-25 .. 20-17 .. 205-132 .. 188-189.. - 5 . by 1.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
First-ever meeting for these 2 perennial bowl participants. For the Seminoles
of Florida State, this marks their 27th straight bowl season, & 30th in Bobby
Bowden's 33 years of leadership. However, as is the case every year, a bit of
history shows that this makes 3 straight years without a premier New Year's
Day slot for FlaSt. From '87 thru '00, the Sems suffered no more than 2 losses
in any season, an incredible 14-year run. However, they've tasted defeat 36
times since 2001, including 21 setbacks over the past 4 years. But at least in
'08, they've somewhat stopped the offensive bleeding, with saw them ranked
59th, 75th, & 82nd in total "O" the past 3 years. Their current 55th rating isn't
anything special, but at least it's a turn in the right direction. And their 33 ppg
average is a full 10 pts better than '07, moving from 90th to 22nd. Overland,
they've had their moments, averaging 248 yds vs Miami, GaTech, & Clemson,
but try 89 & 73 vs VaTech & BC. Unreliable. Nothing wrong, defensively, as
they rank 14th overall - 30th vs the run. Thus, that unit must contain what has
been the Badgers' bread-&-butter for the past dozen year, the overland game.
This marks UW's 7th straight bowl season, & 12th in the last 13 years. They
are led by Hill & Clay (combined 1,866 RYs, 22 TDs). The insertion of Sherer
at QB resulted in a rebirth of that running game, somewhat, but the fact of the
matter is that they've topped 179 RYs in just 3 lined games. Defensively, they
throttled such teams as Illinois, MichSt, & Minnesota (71 RYpg), but finished
with the 58th ranked scoring "D". The past 3 years have seen the dog cover 5-
of-6 bowls, involving these 2 squads, with the only miss by just 2½ pts. Again.
PROPHECY: WISCONSIN 27 - Florida State 24 RATING: 2



EMERALD BOWL
AT SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIA (8-4) vs MIAMI OF FLORIDA (7-5)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
California ... 43.8 .. 33-20 .. 18-18 .. 184-123 .. 196-193.. +14 . California
Miami .......... 46.9 .. 30-24 .. 17-17 .. 130-144 .. 197-169.. - 9 . by 11.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
The Hurricanes of Miami return to the bowl scene, after a rare miss LY, which
ended a 9-yr run. Their downward trend was obvious. Check it out beginning
with '00: 11-1, 12-0 (national title), 12-1, 11-2, 9-3, 9-3, 7-6, 5-7, & 8-4. So a
rebirth of sorts, with 11 new starters. They've had their moments, with such pt
explosions of 41, 39, & 49 pts, but 2 of those 3 came vs Duke & TexasA&M, a
pair of 4-8 squads. And overland they managed a meager 159, 51, & 154 yds
in those 3. As you can see from the above stats, 130 RYpg hardly translates
into a power. Cooper is the only back with more than 62 carries, checking in at
4.9 ypr, & just 4 TDs. Overhead, it is a mixed bag, with the combo of Marve &
Harris throwing for 2,294 yds, but with their 19 TDs offset by an identical 19
INTs, which has contributed to the 'Canes' 101st ranking in the nation in TO
ratio. Defensively, UM fared much better: 23rd overall. But check being skinned
for 41 & 38 pts in their final 2 games, along with 472, 219 RYs (518, 439 TYs):
15-pt, 12-pt spread losses. Those losses (GaTech & NCSt) were on the road,
which is exactly where this game takes place. A definite home game for the
Bears of California, who mark their 6th consecutive bowl season, with this
one. A year ago, they rose from the ashes in the Armed Forces Bowl, turning
a 21-0 deficit vs AirForce, into a 42-30 lead, winning 42-36, as a 4½ pt chalk.
They are led by the scintillating Best: 1,394 RYs (8.0 ypr), with QBs Riley &
Longshore contributing 22 TDs & just 10 INTs. The Bears rank 7th in the land
in TO margin, & have been a special force at home. As a matter of fact, the
host is on a 12-2 spread run in Cal games. No reason to be leary of TD spot.
PROPHECY: CALIFORNIA 33 - Miami of Florida 17 RATING: 1




INDEPENDENCE BOWL
AT SHREVEPORT, LOUISIANA


NORTHERN ILLINOIS (6-6) vs LOUISIANA TECH (7-5)
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 28
8:15 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
No Illinois ... 36.6 .. 25-18 .. 18-17 .. 169-137 .. 161-163.. + 4 . La Tech
La Tech ....... 38.5 .. 25-25 .. 19-20 .. 195-100 .. 157-280.. + 7 . by 0.7 Pts
ANALYSIS
Not exactly the match that the country has been eagerly awaiting, but these 2
seemingly non-entities could provide a very entertaining show. This marks
just the 3rd time in their gridiron history, that the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech
play in a bowl game that includes a national line. They participated in the '77
& '78 Independence Bowls, against Louisville & East Carolina, when neither
the Cards, nor the Pirates were on the Vegas rotation. Their other 2 holiday
contests took place in the '90 Independence, when, as a 1-pt dog they tied
Maryland, 34-34, as time expired. And in '01, they were fodder for Clemson in
a 49-24 Humanitarian Bowl mauling. But here they are again, less than 100
miles from their campus, to boot. Thus, the 10-2 ATS home record in games
involving Tech, must be taken into account. The Bulldogs rely on an overland
game which finished as the 26th best in the nation, with Porter & Jackson a
combined 1,730 yds & 16 TDs. Defensively, Tech was stung for 35, 38, 31, &
35 pts in 4 of its final 5 outings, but managed 38, 45, 38, & 31 pts in those 4.
As we said, entertaining. The Huskies are just the opposite, ranking only 83rd
in total offense, but with a suffocating "D", which finished 14th in scoring. Check
holding 8 of their last 10 opponents to 3, 0, 13, 7, 13, 14, & 16 pts. Sure, they
were stung for 45 & 33 pts in their 2 misses, but 1 was an OT loss to potent
CentMich. Only vs BallSt, were the Huskies overmatched, as 4 of their other
5 losses came by just 4, 3, 4, & 3 pts, with the fifth a 16-0 setback to Navy. Try
just 12 TD passes, along with 10 INTs, for the season. We normally shade the
better defense, but Tech has been a solid "host" play all season. A weak call.
PROPHECY: LOUISIANA TECH 19 - Northern Illinois 16 RATING: 6


RUTGERS (7-5) vs NORTH CAROLINA STATE (6-6)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 29
3:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Rutgers ...... 43.0 . 29- 19 ... 20-15 . 130-130 .. 266- 185 .. - 2 . Rutgers
No Caro St . 48.4 . 24- 26 ... 17-21 . 126-144 .. 201- 243 .. +11 . by 8.2 Pts
ANALYSIS
Talk about rising from the dead. Lazarus had nothing on these 2 squads, with
the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers standing at 1-5 thru week 6, and the Wolfpack
of North Carolina State needing a sweep of their final 4 games, to qualify for a
bowl, after opening at 2-6. But here they are, with the Knights sweeping their
final 6 games, & the 'Pack doing likewise in their last 4 outings. For Rutgers,
this marks their 4th consecutive bowl campaign, after being left out in the cold
for the previous 27 years! The insertion of Greg Schiano as head man, in '01,
has done wonders for the former doormat status of the Knights. In '05, they
nearly upset ArizonaSt in the Insight Bowl, & followed with routs of KansasSt
& BallSt in the Texas & International the past 2 years. They've averaged 43
ppg in those 3 post-season affairs, & despite the loss of RB Rice (4,926 RY
past 3 yrs), they figured to continue their upswing. Afterall, QB Teel, along
with 14 other returning starters augured well. But they opened at 0-3 SU, by a
combined 65½ pts ATS. But Teel took the team on his shoulders, winding up
at 3,099 PYs & 23 TDs (20 in his last 5 games), with 1,252 receiving yds by
Britt (2nd best in the nation). And note splendid 8-0 ATS run to wind up (+106
pts in RU's last 5 game). The 'Pack has also been a superb finisher, not only
on the field, but has been pure gold ATS, covering their last 7, including a 43
pt cover vs NoCarolina. They are led by Wilson, who has thrown for 16 TDs,
with only ONE INT. As a matter of fact he enters this fray, on a school-record
226 passes without an interception. Defensively, NCSt ranks just 94th vs the
pass. That, along with overwhelming Knight bowl success, could be decider.
PROPHECY: RUTGERS 38 - North Carolina State 24 RATING: 6




MISSOURI (9-4) vs NORTHWESTERN (9-3)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 29
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Missouri ..... 48.0 .. 43-28 .. 26-24 .. 156-129 .. 340-285.. - 2 . Missouri
N'Western .. 41.6 .. 25-19 .. 20-19 .. 148-128 .. 210-215.. - 5 . by 2.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
For the 2nd straight year, the Tigers of Missouri enter their bowl reward, fresh
off an embarrassing loss to Oklahoma, in the Big12 Title Game. A year ago,
they were ranked #1 in the nation, upon entering their game with the Sooners,
owning the 5th best offense, & 8th best scoring "O", but were routed, 38-17
(18-pt ATS loss). Thus a monumental letdown, & would be a nice "go-against"
come bowl time, right? Wrong. Try a 38-8 pulverizing of a decent Arkansas
team, in the Cotton Bowl (27-pt cover). Led by QB Daniel, who has thrown for
70 TDs the past 2 years, the Tigers enter this one at #6, both in total & scoring
offense, altho it must be noted that he threw 8 interceptions in Missouri's four
losses this year, 4 of which came in their final 2 tilts (29 & 24½ pt ATS losses).
For Mizzou, this marks its 4th consecutive bowl season, & thus far, the Tigers
have fared quite well, winning & covering their first 3, while scoring 38, 38, &
38 pts. Monotonous. Oh, by the way, they rank 100th, in total "D" (were 59th
in '07), as well as ranking 118th in passing "D", while allowing 102 pts in their
final 2 games. For the Wildcats of Northwestern, this is marks their 1st bowl
shot since the '05 Sun (50-38 loss to UCLA, despite a 584-453 yd edge). The
'Cats opened at 5-0, including an eye-opening upset at Iowa, as 9-pt dogs,
before settling in at 9-3, while finishing at #20 in the polls. RB Sutton is key,
but is hardly reliable (wrist injury). QB Bacher, no doubt, is licking his chops at
the prospect of facing the Tigers' porous pass "D", but he is only 14/14 for the
season. Northwestern has reached 200 RYs just once, since its opener, but
ditto, its rush "D". Bucking bowl-proven Tigs sure is frightening. So we won't.
PROPHECY: MISSOURI 38 - Northwestern 20 RATING: 6




NEVADA (7-5) vs MARYLAND (7-5)
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 30
4:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Nevada ....... 39.8 . 38- 32 .. 25-19 .. 291- 75 .. 219- 321 .. + 1 . Nevada
Maryland .... 43.7 . 20- 21 .. 18-20 .. 135-149 .. 207- 206 .. - 8 . by 4.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
Not exactly what the Terrapins of Maryland were figuring, when, with 2 weeks
remaining in the regular season, they had the ACC Atlantic in their hands,
after a bruising 17-15 win over NoCarolina, in which they enjoyed a 195-75 RY
edge. But that was followed by a 37-3 wipeout loss (32½ pt ATS setback) to
FloridaSt, & a 28-21 loss to BC, in which they were outrushed, 175 to minus 6.
(2nd time this year that Maryland registered negative RYs). Inconsistency is
the byword of this year's Terp squad, as we've been reporting all season. As
a matter of fact, thru their first 7 lined games, the dog stood at 6-1 ATS, by an
astounding 144½ pts, covering by such figures as 24½, 32, 14, 44, & 28 pts.
Simply amazing. Things leveled off a bit, down the stretch, but you get the
drift. Offensively, Scott is their main cheese, overland (959 yds), but <5.0 ypr.
QB Turner has 2318 PYs, but with just 11 TDs & 10 picks. However, he may
find the pickings a bit easier, vs the worst passing "D" in the nation, which is
owned by the Wolf Pack of Nevada, who are allowing >320 PYpg. No, Nevada
didn't get this far via its defense (91st overall), but rather an offense which has
topped 40 pts seven times this year, ranking 5th in total "O", as well as 2nd in
rushing "O". Led by QB Kaepernick, who has not only thrown for 2,479 yds &
19 TDs (only 5 INTs), but who has rushed for 1,115 yds (7.3 ypr) & 16 TDs, the
'Pack is formidable, indeed. Throw in RB's Taua's 1,420 yds (6.7 ypr) & 14
TDs, & you have an offensive power. Check losing to perfect Boise by a mere
41-34 score, while holding the Broncos to 70 RYs. And note allowing just 2.6
ypr (#3 run "D"). Terps' downtick finish hardly bodes well in this atmosphere.
PROPHECY: NEVADA 38 - Maryland 27 RATING: 1



RICE (9-3) vs WESTERN MICHIGAN (9-3)
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 30
8:00 PM EST -- NFL TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Rice ............ 38.2 . 42- 35 .. 26-24 .. 144-193 .. 328- 274 .. +13 . Rice
West Mich .. 36.5 . 30- 24 .. 22-19 .. 122-141 .. 301- 249 .. - 3 . by 8.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
Let it fly! Check it out. The opposing QBs in this contest have thrown for a
combined 7,339 yds & 75 TDs. The Owls of Rice return to the bowl scene for
the 2nd time in the past 3 years, with their 41-17 embarrassing loss to Troy in
the '06 New Orleans, marking Rice's first appearance in the holiday season
since the 1961 Bluebonnet. And as most fans are aware, the Owls are a
part of bowl lore, with the '53 Dicky Maegle Cotton Bowl incident legendary.
Anyway, in that wipeout loss to Troy, QB Armstrong, who replaced Clement
(shoulder) threw no less than 5 INTs, & that was that, a 24-pt loss, despite a
mere 26-yd deficit. You know that has been stickinging in the Owls' craw for
the last 2 years. This season, if its game with Texas is eliminated, Rice scored
at a 44.5 ppg clip, & that includes a 44.2 ppg average in the Owls' 6-game run
to finish the season, covering all but 1, missing by 2 pts. In his last 8 games,
Clement has thrown for 32 TDs, finishing at 41/7 for the season, along with
3,814 yds (66.4½). And together with WR Dillard (19 TD catches this year),
they've combined for the most TDs than any duo in NCAA history. But what
about the firepower of the Broncos of Western Michigan? Well, QB Tim Hiller
has thrown for 3,527 yds (66.7%), with 34 TDs, & only 8 picks, leading WM to
just is 4th post-season appearance. They made it to the International, in '06,
when they staged a brilliant comeback, erasing a 24-0 deficit in the 2nd, only
to lose, 27-24, in the final 6:11 (4-pt cover). But that Bronco team ranked 11th
in the nation, defensively, & entered with a +11 TO edge, quite the opposite
from the above stats. Plenty of fireworks are assured, so we lay the FG spot.
PROPHECY: RICE 41 - Western Michigan 31 RATING: 5


OKLAHOMA STATE (9-3) vs OREGON (9-3)
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 30
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Okla St ........ 49.9 . 42- 27 .. 25-23 .. 256-124 .. 233- 269 .. + 5 . Oregon
Oregon ....... 45.0 . 42- 28 .. 23-21 .. 278-119 .. 200- 264 .. + 5 . by 5.0 Pts
ANALYSIS
Look no further than the above stats to see that a classic could easily be the
result of this meeting. The similarities are there for all to see, including the
average score, where the Cowboys of Oklahoma State hold a 42-27 ppg edge,
while the Ducks of Oregon have a 42-28 ppg advantage. The 'Pokes rank
7th, offensively, with the Ducks 8th. Oregon ranks 4th in the nation in rushing,
while OkieSt ranks 7th. Defensively, neither bar is set high, with OU ranking
81st & 109th in total & passing, while OSU ranks 87th & 111th, respectively.
And both are decent in containing the run: Oregon is 24th; OklaSt is 27th. If
there is to be a discernible edge, it must be in the TO category, right? Hardly.
Check an exact same +5 in that all-important column. However, in Average
Opponent Power Rating, the Cowboys have been tested by slightly better
foes. The 'Pokes had covered 9 straight, rising to the 8th spot in the polls,
with their lone SU loss coming at Texas, by just 28-24. But they were routed
at TexasTech, 56-20 (32½ ATS loss), & despite a 20-pt loss to Oklahoma, in
their finale, still rank 13th or 14th in the polls. QB Robinson (2,735 yds, 24/8),
RB Hunter (1,518 yds, 6.7 ypr), & WR Bryant (1,313 yds, 18 TDs), are nearly
unstoppable, at times. Try 34 & 49 pts in their '06 & '07 bowl wins. Duck QB
Masoli can't compare to Robinson, with just 1,486 yds, 12/4), but check 572
yds & 5 TD passes in OU's 55-45 & 65-38 wins over bowl bound Arizona &
OregonSt, to wind up the season (30-pt cover vs OSU). Last year, the Ducks
(+5½) rolled to a 56-21 win over SoFlorida, with a 533-334 yd edge. Holiday
Bowls are normally barnburners, so why not another? We'll grab the FG spot.
PROPHECY: OREGON 40 - Oklahoma State 34 RATING: 2



HOUSTON (7-5) vs AIR FORCE (8-4)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
12:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Houston ..... 38.4 . 41- 31 .. 28-22 .. 162-170 .. 414- 249 .. - 5 . Houston
Air Force .... 41.0 . 27- 21 .. 18-19 .. 269-140 .... 80- 196 .. +12 . by 5.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
Rematch! These 2 met in week 3 of the regular season, with the Falcons of
Air Force (+2) racing to a 31-7 lead, en route to a 31-28 win. As per usual, the
Falcs controlled the running game, with a 380-172 yd edge, but a 6.1-5.4 ypr
deficit. It must be noted that AF was in off a pair of walkthroughs vs SoUtah &
Wyoming, while UH entered off a 56-37 loss to OklahomaSt. Thus, the 'Pokes
& Falcons put a whippin' on that Cougar rushing "D" to the tune of 379 & 380
yds. So take note of Houston's 170 RYpg "D" at year's end, which translates
into allowing just 127.5 RYpg vs its other 10 opponents. Yes, we know that the
'Force has already proven its worth vs the Coog "D", & once again ranks among
the overland elites, but we also acknowledge Houston improvement. It may
surprise some, but this is just AF's 2nd bowl in the last 6 seasons (but 2-for-2
under Calhoun). Last year, the Falcs (+4½) blew a 21-0 lead over Cal, in this
bowl, losing 42-36, despite a 312-202 RY edge. The Coogs are led by QB
Case Keenum, who ranks 1st in the nation in passing efficiency: 4,761 yds, 43
TDs (2nd only to Oklahoma's Heisman winning Bradford), & 67.3%. Beall
(1,119 RYs, 6.3 ypr) leads a running game, that averaged 5.2 ypr. And a batch
of receivers (Hafner, Carrier, etc) have also contributed to an offense, which
wound up #1 in total "O". For the Cougars, this marks their 5th bowl trip in the
past 6 years, the first as chalks. The past 2 years, they've missed the ATS
brass ring by just 2 & 1 pt, vs the likes of SoCarolina & TCU. Thus, more than
competitive. First year for head coach Kevin Sumlin, who was formerly "O"
coordinator with Oklahoma. Obviously, he has served Coogs well. Revenge!
PROPHECY: HOUSTON 38 - Air Force 31 RATING: 6



OREGON STATE (8-4) vs PITTSBURGH (9-3)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
2:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Oregon St ... 43.7 . 33- 25 .. 22-16 .. 165-135 .. 254- 189 .. + 2 . Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh .. 43.2 . 29- 23 .. 19-17 .. 143-128 .. 213- 193 .. - 4 . by 10.1 Pts
ANALYSIS
Not exactly what the Beavers of Oregon State were aiming for, in their season
finale with arch-rival Oregon. A win over the Ducks would have resulted in an
OSU Rose Bowl appearance for the first time since 1964. But it wasn't meant
to be, as they had to go it without Pac10 frosh record setter Jacquizz Rodgers,
with the ensuing 65-38 loss, the result. And 4 turnovers didn't help, with a pair
of interceptions taken the distance (40 & 70 yds). OSU entered that game on
a 7-1 spread run, by 109 pts, by the way. The Beavs, of course, shocked the
gridiron world, when they pinned the only loss on USC, as 24-pt dogs, no less.
In that one, Rodgers ran for 186 yds. Not only that, but USC was held to just
86 RYs (121 yds below its season average) & 313 total yds. At year's end,
Moevao was a decent 19/11, with 2,341 PY (60.5%). Defensively, OSU ranks
33rd overall, allowing only 3 teams to top 136 RYs. Bowl-wise, the Beavers
are 3-1 ATS under Riley since '03, averaging 38.3 ppg. In sharp contrast, this
is the very first bowl appearance for the Panthers of Pittsburgh, under the
leadership of Dave Wannstedt. Inheriting an 8-4 '04 Fiesta Bowl team, he has
hardly been the messiah hoped for by the Pitt faithful, with ensuing 5-6, 6-6, &
5-7 campaigns, before this year's splendid 9-3 mark. He's had his moments,
to be sure, especially with LY's season-ending upset of WestVirginia (32½ pt
cover), thereby depriving the Mounties of the BCS title tilt. Pitt has been led by
RB McCoy, who has amassed 2,731 yds & 35 TDs the past 2 years, but QB
Stull is nothing special thus far, 2,308 yds, but just 9/9. The dog is 23-6 ATS in
Pitt games, but the Beavers sure know how to light it up come bowl season.
PROPHECY: OREGON STATE 33 - Pittsburgh 20 RATING: 5



BOSTON COLLEGE (9-4) vs VANDERBILT (6-6)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
3:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Bost Coll .... 43.2 .. 26-19 .. 18-15 . 144- 92 .. 176- 181 .. + 6 . Bost Coll
Vanderbilt ... 46.6 .. 19-20 .. 15-18 .. 138-145 . 123- 174 .. + 6 . by 0.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
Twenty-six long years. That's how long the Commodores of Vanderbilt have
had to wait, since playing in their last bowl game, a 36-28 loss to AirForce in
the '82 Hall of Fame, as 9½ pt chalks, no less. In that one, they squandered a
28-17 lead after 3, with the Falcons' 331-35 RY edge, overcoming 452 PYs by
Vandy's Whit Taylor. By the way, that marked Vandy's 3rd-ever bowl contest.
The past 2 years have been near mirror images for the 'Dores, who needed
just a single win over their last 4 games in '07, only to come up empty, with a
25-24 loss to arch-rival Tennessee, the most irksome. This season, Vandy
opened with 5 wins (& covers), but promptly dropped 3 straight, before the
faithful breathed a collective sigh of relief, when they jumped to a 24-0 lead
over Kentucky, en route to a 31-24 win. Thus their streak of 25 consecutive
losing years was snapped, with the magic "bowl eligibility" label finally theirs.
As can be seen from the above stats, Vandy is hardly an offensive power,
ranking 118th, with an overland game which has topped 150 yds just once,
with QBs Nickson & Adams at just 49.2 (8/3) & 49.4 (5/8) respectively. Thus
a "D", which has held 6 foes below 18 pts, ranking 29th in the land, is their
bread-&-butter. But the bowl-tested Eagles of Boston College check in at #6
in total "D", holding 4 foes to 7 pts or less (3 shutouts). However, note BC's
other 8 opponents averaging 29.3 ppg. Thus, a bit of chink in that defensive
armor. Offensively, the Eagles check in at #94, down from LY's Matt Ryan led
"O", which finished 33rd best in the land. Eight straight bowl wins for BC, but
by just 25-24 & 24-21 scores last 2 years (ATS losses). Call for continuance.
PROPHECY: Boston College 23 - VANDERBILT 22 RATING: 6




KANSAS (7-5) vs MINNESOTA (7-5)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
5:30 PM EST -- NFL TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Kansas ....... 48.6 .. 33-30 .. 23-21 . 129-127 .. 302- 276 .. + 3 . Kansas
Minnesota .. 42.7 .. 23-23 .. 16-19 . 106-147 .. 216- 232 .. +12 . by 12.1 Pts
ANALYSIS
A year ago, these 2 squads couldn't have been more different, as the Jayhawks
of Kansas nearly ran the table, with a regular-season ending loss to Missouri
marring an otherwise perfect campaign. That's right: 12-1 straightup, with an
astounding 11-1 spread mark. The Jays made it to the 2nd spot in the nation,
before that Mizzou setback, & finished 8th in total "O", & 2nd in scoring. In
stark contrast, the Gophers of Minnesota, who were perennial bowl entrants
(5 straight from '02-'06) posted an unimaginable 1-11 log in '07, Tim Brewster's
1st year at the helm, after taking over from Glen Mason, who was let go after
Minny blew a 28-pt halftime lead, losing 44-41 (OT) to TexasTech in this same
bowl in '06. But this year, they won 7 of their first 8 (OhioSt), rising to the 20th
spot in the nation. Not only that, but they were on an 8-1 spread run, by 106½
pts. But things took a turn for the worse, as Minny dropped its final 4 games,
including a 55-0 home loss to Iowa, in its finale (23-6 FD, 222-7 RY, 483-134
TY deficits). The term "limping in" hardly seems strong enough. They are led
by QB Weber (2,585 yds, 62.8%, 14/8), with WR Decker his main target. But
check ranking 104th in rushing; certainly foreign to the Mason years. Forcing
the TO (30) seems their main forte. KU also struggled down the stretch, with
a 2-4 mark, allowing 39.3 ppg in those 6. Thus, a 94th "D" ranking, despite 9
returning starters to a unit which finished 12th a year ago. They are led, of
course by their brilliant QB, Todd Reesing, who has thrown for 7,053 yds & 61
TDs the past 2 years. However, note the Jays entered LY's Orange Bowl at
44 ppg. Hardly the overpowering squad from a year ago, so a mild Minny call.
PROPHECY: Kansas 31 - MINNESOTA 27 RATING: 5




GEORGIA TECH (9-3) vs LSU (7-5)
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31
7:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Ga Tech ...... 47.3 .. 26-18 .. 17-17 .. 282-117 ... 95- 196 .. + 5 . Ga Tech
LSU ............. 46.6 .. 30-26 .. 20-16 .. 167-106 . 206- 221 .. - 4 . by 6.2 Pts
ANALYSIS
Quite a comedown for the defending National Champion Tigers of LSU. Last
year, they made it to the BCS title game, despite an 11-2 record (43-37, 50-48
OT losses to Kentucky & Arkansas), triumphing over OhioSt, 38-24 (10-pt
cover). The Bengals lost 10 starters from that squad, including QB Flynn,
who, altho nothing special, owned a 21/11 TD to INT ratio, throwing for 4 TDs
in the title game, with just a single pick. That squad finished the season with
the 3rd best "D" in the land, the 11th best overland game, & with the 2nd best
TO ranking (+20). Contrast that to this year, with the Tigers ranking 36th in
total "D", 42nd in rushing, & 78th in TO ratio. Their main man is RB Scott, who
finished with 1,109 yds (5.5 ypr) & 15 TDs. Lee is their new man under center,
but is hardly reliable (53%), with just 14 TDs, & 16 INTs (7 of which were taken
the distance). Check an 0-6 spread run to finish up the season, while being
stung for 31, 31, & 31 pts in their final 3 games. Rushing "D" seems their only
forte, but that unit had better be at its best, if it is to contain the Yellow Jackets
of Georgia Tech, & their triple option offense installed by new head coach Paul
Johnson. Sure, the Tigers are a holiday fixture (9 straight yrs), but almost
unnoticed, this marks the Jackets' 12th consecutive bowl season. Tho not
making it into the ACC title match, Tech is arguably the hottest team in the
conference, scoring 41 & 45 pts, with 472 & 409 RYs in their season-ending
wins over Miami & Georgia (snapping a 7-game slide vs the 'Dawgs). QB
Nesbitt is the optioneering trigger, with Dwyer at 1,328 RYs (7.0 ypr) & 12 TDs.
LSU: 1st team since '43 to follow national title with losing league record. Tech!
PROPHECY: GEORGIA TECH 34 - Lsu 24 RATING: 3



IOWA (8-4) vs SOUTH CAROLINA (7-5)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
11:00 AM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Iowa ............ 43.7 .. 30-13 .. 21-17 . 190- 98 .. 185- 191 .. + 6 . Iowa
So Caro ...... 48.1 .. 22-20 .. 19-16 ... 98-129 .. 219- 160 .. - 9 . by 9.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
It didn't take the Hawkeyes of Iowa long to return to the bowl scene. A year
ago, they posted a 6-6 record, good enough for "bowl eligibility", but still their
first non-winning season since '00, & a stay-at-home holiday, thanks mainly to
a season-ending 28-19 loss to WesternMich, as 2-TD chalks. And that just 3
years removed from their 3rd consecutive double-digit win campaign, when
Kirk Ferentz was acclaimed as one of the true elite coaches in the country. It
looked like more of the same this year, when Iowa saw a 3-0 start vs the dregs,
turn into 3-3, with hard fought losses to Pitt, N'Western, & MichSt, due mainly
to 9 TOs, including 5 vs the Wildcats. But they were to lose only once more, at
Illinois, on a 46-yd FG in the final 0:24. Over the entire course of the season,
only PennSt had an overland edge over Iowa, as the 'Hawks finished 9th in the
nation vs the run. And at year's end their stellar ball toter Greene finished 2nd
in the nation with 1,729 yds (6.2 ypr), & 17 TDs. QB Stanzi is steady, if not
spectacular, altho he did throw for 3 TDs in Iowa's season-ending 55-0 rout of
Minny (23-6 FD, 222-7 RY edges). The Gamecocks of South Carolina wound
up the season with a pair of disappointing losses, by a combined 87-20 score,
but still rank 11th in the nation in total "D" (tied with Iowa). Wins over bowlbound
NCSt, OleMiss, & Kentucky saw SC at just 108 RYpg, offensively, while its 5
losses had the 'Cocks at a 187-62 RYpg deficit. Ranking 110th in running, the
offensive onus therefore, is squarely on the QB duo of Smelley & Garcia, who
combined for just 56%, 2,496 yds, & a negative 19/20 TD/INT ratio. Spurrier in
a New Year's Day Florida bowl, but Iowa's overland supremacy the final edge.
PROPHECY: IOWA 27 - South Carolina 17 RATING: 2




CLEMSON (7-5) vs NEBRASKA (8-4)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Clemson ..... 46.1 .. 26-16 .. 18-16 .. 121-128 .. 219-167.. - 2 . Clemson
Nebraska .... 44.9 .. 36-29 .. 23-18 .. 164-128 .. 285-234.. - 10 . by 2.8 Pts
ANALYSIS
In 2004, the Cornhuskers of Nebraska failed to make it to a bowl game, which
marked their first miss, after 32 straight years of holiday season inclusion.
But a quick return, with Alamo Bowl & Cotton Bowl appearances in '05 & '06,
before missing again last year with a 5-7 log, despite a definite turnaround in
their offensive capability, finishing 9th in total "O". Right, a defense that checked
in at #112 overall, & #114 in scoring. This season, that "O" is again purring,
under new coach Pelini, ranking 12th in total, & 18th in scoring. QB Ganz is
the catalyst, throwing for 3,329 yds (69.2%), along with 23 TDs (10 INTs), but
the 'Huskers also move it overland, averaging 212 RYpg in their last 6 outings,
with Helu toting it at 6.7 ypr. Nebraska couldn't stay with the likes of Missouri
& Oklahoma, but 5 & 6 pt losses to VaTech & Kansas (OT) in their other 2
losses, were well within the respectable range. And they've reached the 30-pt
plateau in 13 of their last 15 tilts. The Tigers of Clemson were ranked #9 in the
preseason polls, but their much ballyhooed backfield of Harper, Davis, & Spiller
opened with a whimper, failing to top 17 pts in 4 of its first 5 lined games,
losing all 4, not only SU, by ATS, by 46½ pts. Note a 12-2 TO deficit in those
4 setbacks. Anyway, bye-bye to Tommy Bowden, & hello, to Dabo Swinney,
with vast improvement the result. Check the Tigers winning 4 of their final 5
games, due mainly to Harper, and a solid "D", as that overland game is at only
88 ypg over CU's final 7 games. The Tigers rank 15th in total "D", & 9th in
passing efficiency "D", which could spell trouble for Ganz & Co. Rematch of
the '81 Orange Bowl, which resulted in a National Title for Clemson. Huskers!
PROPHECY: NEBRASKA 30 - Clemson 27 RATING: 4



SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (11-1) vs PENN STATE (11-1)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
4:30 PM EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
USC ............ 41.9 .. 38- 8 .. 23-13 .. 207- 83 .. 246-123 .. + 5 . USC
Penn State . 43.4 .. 40-12 .. 23-15 .. 211- 96 .. 241-168 .. + 9 . by 5.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
What a match! The joke that is the BCS has now eliminated at least 4 squads
which should have had a shot at all the marbles, including the participants of
this classic, a pair of gridiron elites, who are rarely far from the pinnacle at
season's end. The Nittany Lions of Penn State, however, suffered through 4
losing seasons in 5 years ('00-'04), with cries of the game passing Paterno by
abounding. But Joe & Co snapped back with an 11-1 season in '06, missing a
perfect season on a final play loss to Michigan. Then a pair of 9-4 campaigns,
before hitting on all cylinders with this year's "HD" offense, which has been the
epitome of balance all season, resulting in a near-perfect record, losing only to
Iowa, by a single pt, on a last-second FG. QB Clark has been magnificent:
60%, 2,324 yds, 17 TDs, & only 4 INTs. Overland, Royster is at 6.5 ypr (1,202
yds & 12 TDs). Defensively? How about ranking 5th overall, 8th vs the run, &
3rd in scoring? One of their early season victims was OregonSt, which was
pummelled by the Lions, 45-14. So it must be noted that the Beavs represent
the only slipup for the Trojans of USC, in an otherwise perfect campaign. In
that one, Troy was on the short end of a 176-86 RY difference, allowing 186
RYs to Beaver RB Rodgers. But that loss served to jack the Trojans for the
remainder of the season, resulting in a 338-53 pt edge in their ensuing 9 tilts.
Statwise, USC has no peer, ranking 1st in total, passing, & scoring "D", as well
as 5th vs the run. Check holding a 55-11 FD edge in its last 2 games. Fifth
Rose Bowl for USC in the past 6 years, & Troy is 5-1 ATS in bowls since '02,
scoring 38, 28, 55, 38, 32, & 49 pts. Sanchez & Co continue that brilliance.
PROPHECY: SO CALIFORNIA 38 - Penn State 24 RATING: 4



GEORGIA (9-3) vs MICHIGAN STATE (9-3)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Georgia ...... 51.3 .. 32-26 .. 21-18 . 154-130 .. 280- 188 .. - 2 . Georgia
Mich St ....... 43.6 .. 26-22 .. 19-17 . 138-148 .. 214- 210 .. + 1 . by 7.7 Pts
ANALYSIS
As you know, on our opening issue each yr, we include a column, called "The
Polls", which is a consensus ranking of various leading gridiron magazines.
Well, the Bulldogs of Georgia ranked 2nd, by just a hair, to OhioSt, in that preseason
poll. Returning 17 starters from LY's 11-2 team, which finished with 7
straight wins, including a 41-10 blowout of Hawaii, in the Sugar Bowl, was
reason enough to elevate the 'Dawgs to such lofty heights. But injuries took
their toll, along with a schedule, which is 2nd to none, in terms of difficulty. At
season's end, Georgia ranked a respectable 27th in total "D", but check being
stung for 38 or more pts in 4 of their last 5 games, while allowing 252 RYpg in
those 4. Offensively, QB Stafford ranks 16th, nationally in passing, clicking at
61% (3,209 yds), with 22 TDs (9 INTs), throwing to the brilliant Massaquoi &
Green (combined 1,861 yds & 16 TDs). But RB Moreno is the heart-&-soul of
this "O" (1,338 yds, 16 TDs). Can the Spartans of Michigan State, who are
making their first January bowl in 9 years, corral that "O"? Well, MSU, which
is also making back-to-back bowl appearances for the first time in 11 years,
has had its moments, to be sure, mostly due to the exploits of RB Ringer, who
finished 4th, nationally, with 1,590 yds (19 TDs), & that includes 896 RYs in a
5-game stretch, to wind up a 6-game Spartan run, before being taken apart,
45-7, by OhioSt. And check a season-ending 49-18 loss at PennSt (557-322
yd deficit). QB Hoyer is barely above 50%, with just 9 TD passes & 8 picks.
So, it's Ringer, or nothing, apparently. We would love to grab the TD spot in
this one, but the 'Dawgs are a 10-4 ATS bowl play lately, covering by 23 in '07.
PROPHECY: GEORGIA 38 - Michigan State 20 RATING: 2




CINCINNATI (11-2) vs VIRGINIA TECH (9-4)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
8:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Cincinnati ... 43.4 .. 27-20 .. 20-17 . 121-124 .. 254- 211 .. - 5 . Va Tech
Va Tech ....... 44.6 .. 22-18 .. 17-14 . 170-107 .. 128- 170 .. +11 . by 3.6 Pts
ANALYSIS
Second straight trip to this bowl for the Hokies of Virginia Tech, which makes
them the first back-to-back Orange Bowl participants since Nebraska in '96 &
'97. And try 16 consecutive bowl campaigns for Frank Beamer's minions. But
the Gobblers have dropped 4 straight BCS games, with the ACC losing its last
8 BCS skirmishes. This year's Tech squad resembles '07's team, in relying on
its "D" to carry the day. Last year, the Hokies ranked 5th, 2nd, 5th in rushing,
total, scoring "D", recording 43 sacks, & 21 interceptions. This season, Tech
ranks 19th, 7th, 10th, in those columns, respectively, with 31 sacks & 16 picks.
So, as you can see, the Hokies are still a major defensive force, altho down a
bit from a year ago. Offensively, Tech checks in at #107, compared to an 85th
ranking in '07. So again, down a bit. The QBing duo of Taylor & Glennon has
combined for a meager 1,639 yds & just 5 TDs, with 11 INTs. But the Hokies
have outrushed 8 of their last 10 foes, including a 285 yd edge over Maryland,
& a 150-45 edge over BostonCollege, in the ACC title game. Oh, & check yet
another outstanding TO year (+11). For the Bearcats of Cincinnati, who are
participating in their 7th bowl in the last 9 years, their standing in that category
is a far cry from '07, when they ranked 6th in the country with a +16 TO edge.
As we constantly remind our subscribers, Cincy has been a steady force: only
39 pts from a 33-3 ATS run, with a pair of those near misses coming by 4 & ½
pt in bowl games, the past 2 years. QB Pike, with 2,168 yds (63%, 18 TDs, 7
INTs) leads an adequate, if not spectacular "O". The Bearcats' only stumbles
came vs mighty Oklahoma, & in a 6 TO loss to UConn. Cincy, by a whisker.
PROPHECY: CINCINNATI 20 - Virginia Tech 14 RATING: 6





BOWL SYSTEM


BUCKING THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS
One of the simplest & most successful bowl systems around, is to go against the
team on which the current Heisman Trophy winner plays. Let's see how this
simple & uncomplicated trend has fared over the last 34 bowl campaigns.


YEAR BOWL FOE OF HEISMAN WINNER LINE RESULT
1974 SO CALIF 18 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 17 + 6½ WINNER
1975 UCLA 23 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 10 + 14 WINNER
1976 GEORGIA 3 - Pittsburgh (Tony Dorsett) 27 + 3½ Loser
1977 NOTRE DAME 38 - Texas (Earl Campbell) 10 + 6½ WINNER
1978 NEBRASKA 24 - Oklahoma (Billy Sims) 31 + 11 WINNER
1979 OHIO STATE 16 - So Calif (Charles White) 17 + 7½ WINNER
1980 PITTSBURGH 37 - So Caro (George Rogers) 9 - 10 WINNER
1981 PENN STATE 26 - So Calif (Marcus Allen) 10 + 2 WINNER
1982 PENN STATE 27 - Georgia (Herschel Walker) 23 - 4 Tie
1983 MIAMI (FLA) 31 - Nebraska (Mike Rozier) 30 + 11½ WINNER
1984 HOUSTON 28 - Boston College (Doug Flutie) 45 + 6 Loser
1985 TEXAS A&M 36 - Auburn (Bo Jackson) 16 + 2½ WINNER
1986 PENN STATE 14 - Miami (Vinnie Testaverde) 10 + 7 WINNER
1987 TEXAS A&M 35 - Notre Dame (Tim Brown ) 10 + 4½ WINNER
1988 WYOMING 14 - Okla St (Barry Sanders) 62 + 2½ Loser
1989 Houston (Andre Ware) did not go to a bowl.
1990 TEXAS A&M 65 - Byu (Ty Detmer) 14 + 3 WINNER
1991 WASHINGTON 34 - Mich (Desmond Howard) 14 - 6½ WINNER
1992 ALABAMA 34 - Miami (Gino Torretta) 13 + 8 WINNER
1993 NEBRASKA 16 - Florida St (Charlie Ward) 18 + 15½ WINNER
1994 NOTRE DAME 24 - Colorado (R. Salaam) 41 + 7½ Loser
1995 TENNESSEE 20 - Ohio State (Eddie George) 14 - 4 WINNER
1996 FLORIDA ST 20 - Florida (Danny Wuerffel) 52 + 3½ Loser
1997 WASH ST 16 - Michigan (Charles Woodson) 21 + 6 WINNER
1998 MISSISSIPPI ST 11 - Texas (Ricky Williams) 38 + 6½ Loser
1999 STANFORD 9 - Wisconsin (Ron Dayne) 17 + 13½ WINNER
2000 OKLAHOMA 13 - Florida State (Chris Weinke) 2 + 10 WINNER
2001 MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 - Nebraska (Eric Crouch) 14 - 8½ WINNER
2002 IOWA 17 - Southern California (Carson Palmer) 38 + 5 Loser
2003 LOUISIANA ST 21 - Oklahoma (Jason White) 14 + 5½ WINNER
2004 OKLAHOMA 19 - So California (Matt Leinart) 55 + 2 Loser
2005 TEXAS 41 - So California (Reggie Bush) 38 + 7 WINNER
2006 FLORIDA 41 - Ohio State (Troy Smith) 14 + 4 WINNER
2007 MICHIGAN 41 - Florida (Tim Tebow) 35 + 10½ WINNER


RESULT: 24-8-1: 75% VS SPREAD
 

New member
Joined
Aug 22, 2005
Messages
158
Tokens
STATFOX / PLATINUM SHEET NFL

12/28/2008 (311) CAROLINA at (312)
NEW ORLEANS
I’m still trying to figure out how Carolina
blew that game Sunday night in New York.
The Panthers completely outplayed the
Giants yet found themselves on the short
end of the score when it was all said and
done. As such, they are forced to give their
all yet another week as they travel to New
Orleans to take on the Saints, who have
motivation of their own trying to secure a
winning season. What motivation weighs
more, that, or trying to wrap up the #2 seed
in the playoffs? I’d have to side with the
latter, especially when Carolina’s offense
is playing so well. In fact, at this point, I’d
have to point to HC John Fox’s team as
the favorite in the NFC playoffs, regardless
of what happened on SNF. No other club
boasts the dynamic features that this club
does at this point in the season. Fox has
always gotten his club to perform on the
road when needed. I expect to see that
again on Sunday.
Play: Carolina -2




12/28/2008 (317) JACKSONVILLE at (318) BALTIMORE
Baltimore’s turnaround this season has been admirable, but in this
“must-win” situation, it seems to me that oddsmakers have gone too
far. The Ravens haven’t been this big of a favorite since December
’06, a game versus Cleveland in which they won but didn’t cover. HC
John Harbaugh’s team doesn’t boast the type of offensive attack it
usually takes to cover large chalk spread: Play Against - Favorites of
10.5 or more points (BALTIMORE) - poor passing team - averaging
175 or less passing yards/game. (25-6 since 1983.) (80.6%, +18.4
units. Rating = 2*). The Jaguars were motivated last week against
Indy and it showed as they almost upset the favored Colts. I expect a
similar effort from HC Jack Del Rio’s club this time around. It’s hard to
envision one of his teams not showing up with these circumstances.
Play: Jacksonville +11.5



12/28/2008 (321) CLEVELAND at (322) PITTSBURGH
This game is one of those meaningless spots which is difficult to
handicap since you don’t know which Steelers will play and what the
overall motivation of the club will be. However, historically this has been
a franchise that does show up for these “meaningless” games. When
you throw in the fact that a divisional opponent is coming to town, there
is even more reason for Pittsburgh to get it done. If anything, they might
be the lesser of the teams that “tanks it” in
this contest, as Cleveland has seemingly
thrown in the towel, totaling just 31 points
in the L5 games of the season. Don’t think
for a minute that HC Mike Tomlin’s defense
doesn’t want to gain back it’s #1 scoring
allowed ranking or protect its #1 ranking
in yardage. They couldn’t really ask for a
better matchup in that regard. Look for the
Steelers to win an 11th straight over the
Browns in convincing fashion, regardless
of the lack of “need”.
Play: Pittsburgh -4.5




12/28/2008 (327) SEATTLE at (328)
ARIZONA
Arizona is another playoff bound team
that doesn’t “need” to win in terms of
positioning, but would like to simply for the
fact that it is hosting a divisional opponent.
As far as I can see it, the Cardinals have
plenty of motivation. Firsts, they need to
get their recent skid turned around and
build momentum for the postseason game next weekend. Second,
they can finish off a season sweep of divisional opponents. Surely
HC Ken Whisenhunt does not want to give the Seahawks confidence
to carry over into 2009. Strangely, it is Arizona’s awful loss at New
England last week that serves as the final factor for me: Play On - Any
team (ARIZONA) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 28
points in their previous game, after the first month of the season. (48-
18 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.7%, +28.2 units. Rating = 3*)
Play: Arizona -3.5




12/28/2008 (331) DENVER at (332) SAN DIEGO
I’ve seen several “experts” handing the AFC West title over to San
Diego, assuming that because the Chargers were able to force this
winner-take-all game, that they will win. That is awfully presumptuous
considering how badly they have underachieved this season. This was
a team that was supposed to be a top flight Super Bowl contender in
’08. Instead, they sit at 7-8 SU & ATS. The only bigger disappointment
could be the Broncos, who at 4-11 ATS, are the league’s worst spreadcovering
team. However, for them, the problems have been 1) being
overrated by oddsmakers and 2) being unable to win a single game
ATS at home. However, for this game, neither of those situations apply.
Denver is on the road and a hefty underdog. Last week Shanahan’s
club gained 532 yards of offense. They are playing well enough to at
least make a game of this, if not pulling the upset.
Play: Denver +8.5



TOP NFL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 17 (ATS & Total)
RNK
Sunday, 12/28/2008 (327) SEATTLE vs. (328) ARIZONA
Play Over - Home teams against the total (ARIZONA) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an
average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. (33-7 over the last 10
seasons.) (82.5%, +25.3 units. Rating=4*)
The situation’s record this season is: (3-0). L3 Seasons: (12-2). L10 Seasons: (19-3). Since 1983: (63-44).


Sunday, 12/28/2008 (307) NY GIANTS vs. (308) MINNESOTA
Play Against - Road favorites (NY GIANTS) - outrushing their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season, after
outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. (43-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.2%, +29.8 units. Rating=4*)
The situation’s record this season is: (3-0). L3 Seasons: (14-2). L5 Seasons: (21-10). Since 1983: (81-46).


Sunday, 12/28/2008 (313) ST LOUIS vs. (314) ATLANTA
Play On - Road teams (ST LOUIS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, terrible team, winning 25% or less
of their games, in the second half of the season. (28-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.8%, +22.5 units. Rating=4*)
The situation’s record this season is: (6-2). L3 Seasons: (20-3). L10 Seasons: (43-23). Since 1983: (106-75).





TOP NFL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 17 (ATS & Total)


Sunday, 12/28/2008 (329) WASHINGTON vs. (330) SAN FRANCISCO
WASHINGTON is 10-0 UNDER (+10 Units) after the first month of the season this season. The average score was WASHINGTON
14.1, OPPONENT 17.1 - (Rating = 6*)


Sunday, 12/28/2008 (305) DALLAS vs. (306) PHILADELPHIA
DALLAS is 15-1 UNDER (+13.9 Units) in road games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att.
since 1992. The average score was DALLAS 10.3, OPPONENT 19.4 - (Rating = 5*)


Sunday, 12/28/2008 (303) DETROIT vs. (304) GREEN BAY
DETROIT is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over
the last 3 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 14.7, OPPONENT 26.8 - (Rating = 4*)


Sunday, 12/28/2008 (317) JACKSONVILLE vs. (318) BALTIMORE
Jack Del Rio is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game as
the coach of JACKSONVILLE. The average score was Del Rio 25.8, OPPONENT 24.9 - (Rating = 4*)


Sunday, 12/28/2008 (307) NY GIANTS vs. (308) MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) the 1rst half total vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game this
season. The average score was MINNESOTA 28.8, OPPONENT 25.6 - (Rating = 4*)


Sunday, 12/28/2008 (301) OAKLAND vs. (302) TAMPA BAY
OAKLAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games this season. The average score was
OAKLAND 10.4, OPPONENT 29.4 - (Rating = 4*)



Sunday, 12/28/2008 (327) SEATTLE vs. (328) ARIZONA
Mike Holmgren is 20-40 ATS (-24 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of SEATTLE. The
average score was Holmgren 21.3, OPPONENT 23.5 - (Rating = 2*)


Sunday, 12/28/2008 (325) NEW ENGLAND vs. (326) BUFFALO
Bill Belichick is 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.
The average score was Belichick 26.7, OPPONENT 17.7 - (Rating = 3*)


Sunday, 12/28/2008 (327) SEATTLE vs. (328) ARIZONA
Mike Holmgren is 37-18 OVER (+17.2 Units) off a home win as the coach of SEATTLE. The average score was Holmgren 23.3,
OPPONENT 23.6 - (Rating = 2*)



TOP NFL STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 17 (ATS & Total)


Sunday, 12/28/2008 (303) DETROIT vs. (304) GREEN BAY
GREEN BAY is 17-0 SU & 12-3 ATS in its L17 games at home vs. DETROIT..


Sunday, 12/28/2008 (313) ST LOUIS vs. (314) ATLANTA
The FAVORITE is 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS in L13 games of ST LOUIS-ATLANTA series.


Sunday, 12/28/2008 (313) ST LOUIS vs. (314) ATLANTA
The OVER is 12-4 in the ATLANTA-ST LOUIS series since 1996.


Sunday, 12/28/2008 (311) CAROLINA vs. (312) NEW ORLEANS
CAROLINA is 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS at NEW ORLEANS since 2001.


Sunday, 12/28/2008 (323) MIAMI vs. (324) NY JETS
NY JETS is 12-4 SU & 10-3 ATS in its L16 games at home vs. MIAMI.





NFL Season Finale Analysis - by Steve Makinen



It’s hard to believe that another full NFL regular season is in the
book already. There have certainly been some surprises, and if
one thought will stand out from the league in ’08, it’s that anything
can change from one year to the next. The number of teams that
have gone from the top to the bottom, or from the outhouse to
the penthouse in just 12 months has been amazing. Still, there’s
plenty left to be decided in Week 17. With that in mind, here’s a
quick look at the games on tap for Sunday with some tidbits that
could affect how they play out, including their records in season
finales.


(301) OAKLAND at (302) TAMPA BAY - 1:00 PM
Initial Thought: Tampa Bay’s wild card chances hinge on beating
the Raiders, a fortuitous season ending matchup for HC John
Gruden’s club. The Bucs have struggled in the huge favorite role
though, and in home finales.


Oakland in road season finales: 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS since
2000.

Tampa Bay in home season finales: 1-6 SU & ATS since ’01.

Other Angle That Could Affect Game: TAMPA BAY is 4-13 ATS
(-10.3 Units) vs. terrible teams
- outscored by 10+ points per
game on the season since 1992.
The average score was TAMPA
BAY 19.2, OPPONENT 17.5 -
(Rating = 1*)





(303) DETROIT at (304) GREENBAY - 1:00 PM
Initial Thought: Detroit hasn’t won in Green Bay since the year
before Brett Favre arrived on the scene, 17 straight games. With
him no longer a Packer, is the year the streak ends?


Detroit in road season finales: 1-6 SU & 2-4-1 ATS since2001.
Green Bay in home season finales: 9-1 SU & 6-3-1 ATS over L10 seasons.

Other Angle That Could Affect Game: Marinelli is 0-9 ATS (-9.9
Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the
second half of the season as the coach of DETROIT. The average
score was DETROIT 14.7, OPPONENT 26.8 - (Rating = 4*)




(305) DALLAS at (306) PHILADELPHIA - 1:00 PM
Initial Thought: Dallas is certainly hoping that its playoff hopes
don’t rest on having to beat Philadelphia in the season finale.
With an 8-25 ATS post-Thanksgiving record vs. winning teams
since ’92, the odds are against the Cowboys pulling this one out
on the road.
Dallas in road season finales: 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS since ‘98.
Philadelphia in home season finales: 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in L5.
Other Angle That Could Affect Game: DALLAS is 3-12 ATS
(-10.2 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging
235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season
since 1992. The average score was DALLAS 16.6, OPPONENT
23.1 - (Rating = 1*)




(307) NY GIANTS at (308) MINNESOTA - 1:00 PM
Initial Thought: Minnesota’s late season surge has been
impressive and the Vikings have actually performed like a playoff
caliber club, but this game hinges solely on what it means to
Giants.


NY Giants in road season finales: 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in L4 years.
Minnesota in home season finales: 1-4 SU & ATS in L5 vs. NFC.
Other Angle That Could Affect Game: NY GIANTS are 6-0
ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=90
rushing yards/game this season. The average score was NY
GIANTS 31.8, OPPONENT 16.2 - (Rating = 2*)




(309) CHICAGO at (310) HOUSTON - 1:00 PM
Initial Thought: Chicago catches Houston at the wrong time
as Texans have heated up down the stretch. Having already
historically struggled in late season road games, unfamiliarity will
also be a concern for the Bears, who’ve never played the Texans in Houston.

Chicago in road season finales: 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS since 2002.
Houston in home season finales: Won L2, both SU & ATS, after 0-4 SU prior.
Other Angle That Could Affect Game: CHICAGO is 7-24 ATS
(-19.4 Units) in road games in December games since 1992. The
average score was CHICAGO 14.7, OPPONENT 24.0 - (Rating = 2*)




(311) CAROLINA at (312) NEW ORLEANS - 1:00 PM
Initial Thought: The Week 16
contest will decide Carolina’s
playoff fate, so this one figures
to mean nothing to the Panthers.
New Orleans will simply be
looking to make a statement
versus the division champ to use
as momentum builder for ’09.
Carolina in road season finales: Won L7 ATS, going 6-1 SU,
L4 vs. division.
New Orleans in home season finales: 2-6 SU & ATS since
’00.
Other Angle That Could Affect Game: CAROLINA is 40-16 ATS
(+22.4 Units) vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more
points/game since 1992. The average score was CAROLINA
24.4, OPPONENT 16.6 - (Rating = 2*)




(313) ST LOUIS at (314) ATLANTA - 1:00 PM
Initial Thought: Atlanta is another team that catches a fortunate
scheduling break as it closes out its season still a playoff hopeful.
Amazing scoring differential: St. Louis 11.4 PPG on the road in
’08, Atlanta 32.2 PPG at home.
St. Louis in road season finales: 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS since
2001.
Atlanta in home season finales: 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in L7 vs.
teams other than Carolina.
Other Angle That Could Affect Game: ST LOUIS is 3-12
ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams -
averaging >=5.65 yards/play since 1992. The average score was
ST LOUIS 18.8, OPPONENT 36.3 - (Rating = 1*)



(315) KANSAS CITY at (316) CINCINNATI - 1:00 PM
Initial Thought: Talk about a meaningless game. The only real
prize up for grabs here figures to be draft position, but there
doesn’t seem to be a must-have player at the top of the draft
anyhow.
Kansas City in road season finales: 1-8 SU & 3-6 ATS in L9.
Cincinnati in home season finales: 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS since
’03.
Other Angle That Could Affect Game: CINCINNATI is 14-2
ATS (+11.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more
passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 27.2, OPPONENT 21.8 -
(Rating = 3*)





(317) JACKSONVILLE at (318) BALTIMORE - 1:00 PM
Initial Thought: This game illustrates how much can change in
the NFL from one season to the next. Last year Baltimore was
playing out the string while Jacksonville was the playoff contender.
Now the shoe is on the other foot. With Baltimore giving up just
10.4 PPG at home, don’t expect much from Jaguars’ offense.
Jacksonville in road season finales: 2-8 SU & 4-6 ATS over
L10 years.
Baltimore in home season finales: 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS since
‘98.
Other Angle That Could Affect Game: BALTIMORE is 14-4
ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams -
allowing >=5.65 yards/play since
1992. The average score was
BALTIMORE 25.2, OPPONENT
15.0 - (Rating = 1*)




(319) TENNESSEE at (320)
INDIANAPOLIS - 1:00 PM
Initial Thought: Indianapolis and Tennessee have both
clinched playoff spots, but the Colts are the team more famous
for sandbagging games not necessary to their postseason
positioning. Look for that to happen again here, despite the
divisional foe and 7-game winning streak.
Tennessee in road season finales: 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS since
‘99.
Indianapolis in home season finales: 4-2 SU but 0-6 ATS since
’02.
Other Angle That Could Affect Game: Dungy is 2-11 ATS (-10.1
Units) in the last 2 weeks of the regular season as the coach of
INDIANAPOLIS. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 22.5,
OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 4*)




(321) CLEVELAND at (322) PITTSBURGH - 1:00 PM
Initial Thought: By now you’ve probably picked up on the fact
that many playoff contenders are hosting downtrodden teams
this week. Pittsburgh is one of those, although with the divisional
rivalry aspect thrown in, Cleveland probably figures to be a more
motivated underdog.
Cleveland in road season finales: 0-2 SU & ATS L2 after 4-0
SU & ATS prior four years.
Pittsburgh in home season finales: 0-2 SU & ATS L2 after 6-0
SU prior six years.
Other Angle That Could Affect Game: PITTSBURGH is 17-5
against the 1rst half line (+11.5 Units) in home games vs. poor
passing teams averaging 175 or less passing yards/game. since
1992. The average score was PITTSBURGH 13.6, OPPONENT
5.7 - (Rating = 1*)




(323) MIAMI at (324) NY JETS - 1:00 PM
Initial Thought: After the Jets’ season opening win at Miami,
who could have envisioned the stakes in the bookend season
finale would be so high. The Jets have the benefit of home field
advantage and have historically played better in divisional play.
Miami in road season finales: 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS in L5 years.
NY Jets in home season finales: 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS since ’05.
Other Angle That Could Affect Game: MIAMI is 13-26 ATS
(-15.6 Units) revenging a same season loss against opponent
since 1992. The average score was MIAMI 19.2, OPPONENT
23.2 - (Rating = 1*)



(325) NEW ENGLAND at (326) BUFFALO - 1:00 PM
Initial Thought: Even so much as New England has a road
divisional game in Week 17, the Patriots have to be thanking
the scheduling god’s. They’ve beaten the Bills in ten straight
meetings, winning by 21.2 PPG while going 8-2 ATS.
New England in road season finales: 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS under
Bill Belichick.
Buffalo in home season finales: 0-5 SU & ATS since ’03.
Other Angle That Could Affect Game: NEW ENGLAND is 10-2
ATS (+7.8 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the
last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 31.2,
OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 1*)



(327) SEATTLE at (328) ARIZONA - 4:15 PM
Initial Thought: Arizona seems
to be on cruise control mode as it
awaits its first playoff game in 10
years next week. The Seahawks
meanwhile, will be playing their
final game for HC Mike Holmgren
, who leaves after 10 seasons,
and could have a motivational edge.
Seattle in road season finales: 4-5 SU & 5-3-1 ATS under Mike
Holmgren.
Arizona in home season finales: 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS this
decade.
Other Angle That Could Affect Game: SEATTLE is 0-8 ATS
(-8.8 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/
game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE
13.6, OPPONENT 31.6 - (Rating = 3*)



(329) WASHINGTON at (330) SAN FRANCISCO - 4:15 PM
Initial Thought: San Francisco has certainly played with more
spirit down the stretch than Washington, despite the difference in
record at the halfway point. With the season now a loss after the
6-2 start, I wouldn’t expect the best of efforts from the Redskins.
Washington in road season finales: 6-1 OVER the total since
‘01.
San Francisco in home season finales: 2-4 SU & ATS since
’02.
Other Angle That Could Affect Game: WASHINGTON is 2-11
ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record
over the last 3 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON
19.5, OPPONENT 21.9 - (Rating = 2*)




(331) DENVER at (332) SAN DIEGO - 4:15 PM
Initial Thought: Referee Ed Hochuli owes the football god’s a
debt of gratitude, as he is essentially off the hook now for his
errant game-changing call in the Week 2 matchup between the
Broncos and Chargers. San Diego has a chance to salvage
an otherwise awful season with an improbable playoff berth.
Oddmakers may have gone too far though, installing a TD-plus
pointspread in favor of the hosts.
Denver in road season finales: 3-1 SU & ATS L4 years.
San Diego in home season finales: 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS since
‘03.
Other Angle That Could Affect Game: DENVER is 3-14 ATS
(-12.4 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 20.4, OPPONENT 23.1 -
(Rating = 2*)
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,120,256
Messages
13,579,417
Members
100,953
Latest member
97winco
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com