New Years Day Service Plays 1/01/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK = 9-13



Thursday, January 1st
OUTBACK BOWL
Raymond James Stadium • Tampa, FL
S Carolina over Iowa by 1
It used to be New Year’s Day games were considered the ‘major bowls’. Not
so anymore as only the Rose and Orange Bowls dot this year’s schedule as
BCS events. Still, it’s 2009 and the Gamecocks and Hawkeyes are in sunny
Florida for a battle of two squads that combined to 15-9 this season (you
can make that 27-21 if you count last year’s records). Both teams stayed
home for the holidays last season and both bring defenses that practically
mirror one another – each allowing 289 YPG on the season. Iowa stepped
up to the plate and delivered against fellow bowlers this season, gong
5-1 ATS. The Hawkeyes held 3 of their fi nal 4 opponents to season low
– or 2nd low – yardage marks but were outstatted in 4 of the last 5 games
to conclude the season. Iowa, under head coach Kirk Ferentz, has cashed
in 4 of its 6 bowl appearances and stands a perfect 4-0 ATS against nonconference
opposition that is off a SU and ATS loss. His colleague, Steve
Spurrier, is 4-1 SU in games against Big 10 foes and 11-4 ATS in games
off back-to-back losses. Aside from SEC bowl dogs barking the loudest
this decade (18-9 ATS), the Cocks are 4-1 SU and ATS as bowlers since
1995. The bottom line here is this is an attractive matchup of middle-tier
teams. We’ll opt for the SEC puppy over the Big 10 (5-1 ATS in these bowl
pairings this decade) at a site that favors the Ole Ball Coach and his good
ole boys.




GATOR BOWL
Municipal Stadium • Jacksonville, FL
Nebraska over Clemson by 4
Nice job by both freshman coaches in getting their teams to Jacksonville
this New Year’s Day. Husker boss Bo Pelini took over a program that was a
red-faced embarrassment last year and instilled a modicum of pride and a
heavy dose of defense (Nebraska’s stop-unit improved 115 YPG this season
from last) to bring them back to life. As a result, the Cornhuskers are on
a neat 6-1 ITS (In The Stats) roll heading into this contest. Think about
that for a moment. We’re talking about a team that has outgained 6 of
its last 7 opponents – all in Big 12 play where the yards are piled up faster
than banks and automakers looking for bailouts. One especially salient
stat in Big Corn’s favor is their 8-0 ATS log in bowl games when playing
off a win of more than 7 points. On the Clemson side of the game, former
interim and newly-named head coach Dabo Swinney leads his troops into
this challenge with the knowledge that bowlers riding a 3-0 SU and ATS
win streak are just 11-31 ATS when off an ATS win of 8 or more points. That
win was against bitter rival South Carolina. We point that out because the
Tigers are just 3-8 SU and ATS in bowl games off a win over the Gamecocks,
including 0-6 ATS as favorites! In some cases a little Dabo’ll do you. Not
against this ilk. Nebraska completes the turnaround with a statementmaking
victory.



CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Florida Citrus Bowl • Orlando, FL
Georgia over Michigan St by 3
There are two ways to look at this game. One – the preseason No. 1 team
in the land, Georgia, has a chance to vindicate itself with a season-ending
win over the Spartans. Or, two, they come fl at as an Aunt Jemima pancake.
Our best guess is the latter. Sure, it’s easy to say the talent is there and they
can throw the switch at any given moment but we simply can’t get past
Mark Richt’s defense that allowed 38 or more points in 4 of its fi nal 5 games
to close out the season. To put it into better perspective, consider that in
25 years under head coach Vince Dooley the Bulldogs allowed 38 or more
points TWO TIMES. Not the kind of warm and fuzzy numbers that make you
want to cozy up with a touchdown favorite in a bowl game that is a different
planet away from where they expected to be when the season began. To
their credit, Georgia did face the toughest slate of competition among all
bowlers this season (foes’ combined win percentage was .607). But Michigan
State fi ts that mold and the Spartans fi gure to be especially anxious to make
amends for their 31-point season ending loss at Penn State. And head coach
Mark Dantonio is adept at doing just that considering his 9-3-1 ATS mark as
a dog off a loss, including 7-0-1 ATS when taking less than 8 points. Behind
senior RB Javon Ringer and senior QB Brian Hoyer, the Spartans are a veteran
squad that is well-coached and disciplined (average less than 2 turnovers per
game). We’ll take a side of bacon along with poached eggs and home fries
with our fl apjacks. In a battle of Marks, Dantonio is the way to go.



ROSE BOWL
Rose Bowl Stadium • Pasadena, CA
Usc over Penn St by 13
If USC and Penn State hadn’t suffered surprising losses to Oregon State
and Iowa, respectively, this game would be for the cheese. Instead it’s
for the Roses, which makes for one heck of a runnerup game for the BCS
Championship. The mighty Trojans, who by the way have never played a
Division 1-AA opponent, held no less than 8 foes to season low yards this
season (2nd only to TCU). And we all know Pete Carroll’s numbers. Arguably
the most successful college coach against the number in college football
annals, Carroll is at his best when playing with rest as his 18-6 SU and ATS
mark in college games confi rms, including 11-2 SU and ATS when facing a
.750 or greater opponent. He is also spotless against the Big 10 going 5-0 SU
and ATS. Today’s game marks the 4th straight appearance in the Rose Bowl
for USC as Pasadena is literally their home away from home. What is perhaps
most impressive about the Trojans has been their play on the fi eld against
fellow bowl teams where they are 29-5 ITS (In The Stats) the last 5 years
– winning by an average of 209 YPG this season, the best among all 2008
bowl teams. Meanwhile, Joe Pa’s new spread offense was topped only once
in 2008 when they lost by 6 yards to Ohio State in a 13-6 win at Columbus.
Today will mark the fi rst time in the last 17 games the Lions will dress up
as underdogs. The question is: are they deserving? Considering the Big 10’s
recent mark against the PAC 10 in bowl games (0-7 ATS) and the fact that
this is the cheapest price the Trojans have been this season says yes. Tough
call but we want no part of fading these Carrollers during the holidays.



ORANGE BOWL
Dolphin Stadium • Miami, FL
Virginia Tech over Cincinnati by 3
Now here’s a BCS bowl game that we’re absolutely sure you will be able
to walk up to the ticket offi ce and buy a seat 10 minutes before kickoff.
Talk about lack of interest; this year’s Orange Bowl looks downright acidic.
Sure, the Bearcats have won 6 games in a row and head coach Brian Kelly
is on everyone’s short list for a new hire in 2010 (the guy is a winner) but
Cincinnati is not your typical dream team. Kelly is 10-1 SU and 10-0-1 ATS as
a favorite or dog of less than 20 points against .750 or greater opposition
and the Bearcats have won each of their last 3 bowl games. We don’t like the
fact that they have surrendered 20 or more points in 4 of their fi nal 5 games.
That’s because Frank Beamer is 34-13 ATS as a head coach with Virginia
Tech in games in which his team scores 20 or more points as an underdog,
including 14-3 ATS against an .850 or greater opponent. The Hokies lost to
Kansas as 3-point favorites in the Orange Bowl last year, making them an
avenging bowl-returning dog. Toss in Beamer’s 4-0 ATS mark as a dog of 6
or fewer points off a SU and ATS win when taking on teams from the Big
East and you can understand our admiration for VPI. After all, we have an
affi nity for bowl dogs with better defenses, especially those looking to make
amends. Forget StubHub. Walk up to the window and take a seat along side
Beamer’s Boys. We think you’ll like the view.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly’s Green Sheet

Nelly’s Green Sheet = 19 -23 ( 11-10 SIDEs AND 8-13 TOTALS)



OUTBACK BOWL 10:00 AM
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, Florida ESPN
Iowa (-3½) South Carolina (43)
If not for a three game slide early in the year Iowa might have made a dent in
the Big Ten and national picture. Iowa lost just four games this season by a
combined total of just 12 points and the Hawkeyes feature one of the top
running backs in the nation with Shonn Green topping 1,700 yards this
season. Iowa was the only team to beat Penn State this year and the
Hawkeyes finished the year with great defensive numbers. Iowa has
averaged over 30 points scored per game this season while allowing less
than 14 points per game. South Carolina also features a very tough defense
that gets very little accolade. The Gamecocks lost five games, all to bowl
teams and allowed just 288 yards per game with outstanding numbers
against the pass. Iowa’s offense has given far more signs of life however as
South Carolina is scoring just 21 points per game. The SC offensive line has
not been strong this season, allowing over three sacks per game and leading
one of the nation’s worst rushing attacks. Iowa is just 2-3 in the last five bowl
games but the Hawkeyes have faced national power after national power and
played as an underdog in each game, facing USC, Florida, LSU, Florida, and
Texas in the five straight years before failing to qualify for the postseason last
year. In a much more favorable bowl match-up the Hawkeyes should outlast
South Carolina as the Gamecocks have struggled in two bowl appearances
under Coach Spurrier, allowing a combined total of 74 points. IOWA 21-13

RATING 2: IOWA (-3½)
RATING 2: ‘UNDER 43’



GATOR BOWL 12:00 PM
Municipal Stadium – Jacksonville, Florida CBS
Clemson (-3) Nebraska (55½)
Neither of these traditional powers lived up to expectations this season but
both managed to avoid disaster and finished with winning records riding
three-game win streaks to close out the year. Clemson interim coach Dabo
Swinney has been given a vote of confidence to take over the team full time
but this might be a key game to build some momentum and provide
assurance to the program after failing to live up to very high expectations this
year. Nebraska coach Bo Pelini delivered an 8-4 record but the severity of
several losses was disturbing. Pelini won as interim coach at Nebraska in the
2003 Alamo Bowl before being passed over for the forgettable Bill Callahan
era. Nebraska averaged 36 points per game this season but allowed 29
points per game despite Pelini’s defensive background. Nebraska had one of
the worst turnover margins in the nation but managed to win several high
scoring games and with very narrow losses to Virginia Tech and Texas Tech
the Huskers were really not too far from a very strong year. Clemson could
not cut it in a tough ACC with several solid defenses holding up much better
than the Tigers did. Projected as one of the best rushing teams in the nation
Clemson ended up with pedestrian numbers on the ground, averaging only
120 yards per game. Clemson did not score more than 31 points in any
game and averaged just 20 points per game against FBS foes on the season
so the Tigers could have a tough time in a shootout type of game that
Nebraska may look to force. This is a more favorable venue for Clemson but
Nebraska fans travel well and should bring more enthusiasm for this game as
there is optimism following a dark era for the program. Clemson is ready to
end the season and effort may be suspect. NEBRASKA 35-24

RATING 2: NEBRASKA (+3)
RATING 1: ‘OVER 55½’



CAPITAL ONE BOWL 12:00 PM
Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando, Florida ABC
Georgia (-7½) Michigan State (54)
It will be all about motivation for Georgia as this was supposed to be the year
for the Bulldogs. Many thought a tough late season schedule would derail the
season for the preseason #1 team but it happened much sooner with a first
half disaster against Alabama and a subsequent blowout loss against
Florida. Georgia crushed Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl last season despite
making a fair argument to be in the national title game but this year there will
be no such motivating factor. Michigan State came close to the Rose Bowl in
a nice turnaround season but there is not a lot of quality on the resume as
the Spartans lost badly in games against top teams this season. Michigan
State has very suspect statistics despite a glowing 9-3 record as the
Spartans actually gave up more yardage than they gained and barely outscored
opponents on the year. The best wins for Michigan State are narrow
wins against mediocre Big Ten teams but in reality the same can be said for
Georgia who failed against the top teams and beat teams that did not live up
to expectations for the year. Georgia has dominating numbers but it has not
added up to dominant performances as four wins came by ten points or less.
Michigan State put up strong rushing numbers this season but RB Ringer
had the most carries in the nation and his yards per carry average was not at
an elite level. Michigan State was out-gained in three Big Ten wins and
Georgia may be a bit more focused in this game coming off a surprising loss
to Georgia Tech that featured a second half collapse. Injuries have taken a
toll on Georgia but the skill players should be dramatically superior for the
Bulldogs and if motivated Georgia should expose MSU as a team that is
overrated and caught some breaks to reach 9-3. GEORGIA 38-24

RATING 5: GEORGIA (-7½)
RATING 3: ‘OVER 54’



ROSE BOWL 4:00 PM
Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California ABC
Usc (-10) Penn State (45)
The first thought is certainly to lay the points with a USC team that is
essentially playing a home game and has dominated the Big Ten in recent
years. USC clobbered the Big Ten’s next best team Ohio State in the regular
season and own incredibly dominant defensive numbers, allowing just 206
yards and an average of less than eight points per game. The Big Ten
certainly has not shown up in several big games in recent years but the Pac-
10 certainly had a very weak showing overall this season. Penn State beat
the lone team that beat USC and didn’t just win, crushing Oregon State by 31
points. Penn State also won at Wisconsin and at Ohio State and narrowly
missed being undefeated and possibly playing for the national title. Penn
State’s offense has been much more productive than USC this season and
the defense is not as far behind as you might think. Penn State averaged 40
points per game this season and was held below 34 points in just three
games. USC was held to 28 or fewer points five times this season and the
overall numbers are inflated with a 125-0 margin against Washington and
Washington State. Penn State under Joe Paterno has been an incredible
bowl performer, winning 23 of 33 bowl games including a 15-7 ATS mark in
the last 22. Penn State has also had two more weeks to prepare for this
match-up with the Big Ten’s early ending to the year. USC is also losing
Offensive Coordinator Steve Sarkisian to the Washington head coaching
vacancy after the season so there have been some distractions there. Penn
State’s defense checks in at 4th nationally in points allowed and 5th nationally
in yardage and Penn State also features outstanding special teams play.
This is a dangerous game for USC if due respect is not given to a very
talented Penn State team. USC 23-21

RATING 3: PENN STATE (+10)
RATING 1: ‘UNDER 45’



ORANGE BOWL 7:15 PM
Dolphin Stadium – Miami, Florida FOX
Cincinnati (-1½) Virginia Tech (41½)
Coach Kelly has done a fantastic job at Cincinnati making a quick leap from
consistent mediocrity to an elite bowl game. It has been a great season for
the Bearcats but in reality they did not deliver results that indicate they are
much better than a slightly above average team despite an amazing 21-5
record over the past two seasons under Kelly. Cincinnati won six games by
eight points or less and two of those wins were against losing teams. The
Bearcats also lost by 24 points to Connecticut and by 26 points to Oklahoma.
Cincinnati does feature a capable offense that cycled through multiple QBs
this season and the defense has been pretty strong. Virginia Tech is led by a
dominating defense but the offense has averaged less than 300 yards per
game this season. In the last five games no opponent topped 16 points
against the Hokies but the team scored 30 points just twice this year despite
often getting scoring opportunities on defense and special teams. Coach
Kelly is 2-0 in bowl games but this is a leap in competition level. Frank
Beamer for all his success has not been a great bowl game coach including
losses as favorites each of the last two years. Virginia Tech has great
numbers as underdogs and can grind out a win. Both teams have a knack for
making game-changing plays and one big play will do it. VA TECH 23-20

RATING 1: VIRGINIA TECH (+1½)
RATING 1: ‘OVER 41½’
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS MEMO = 13-9

OUTBACK BOWL
Iowa vs. South Carolina +3.5 O/U 43
Thursday, January 1, 11 am ET ESPN - Tampa, Fla.
Recommendation: South Carolina

This game projects to be a defensive matchup with long-time coaches Kirk Ferentz and Steve Spurrier squaring off. When looking at these two teams we clearly notice that both closed out the campaign
headed in different directions. The Hawkeyes finished the season winning three-straight with an upset over then undefeated Penn State and a 55-0 blowout over rival Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks lost their last two games to Florida and Clemson by a combined margin of 87-20. Still we must keep an open mind and consider the full body of work of both teams. Unquestionably, the Gamecocks played the much tougher schedule in the SEC. Games against Florida, Clemson, Ole Miss and Georgia are just a few of the speed-orientated teams that littered the South Carolina slate. Iowa played a watered down Big Ten schedule and even avoided playing Ohio State. From a perception standpoint, how much should the win over Penn State play into handicapping this game? Outside of that contest, Iowa’s body of work is no better or no worse than that of South Carolina. Now we won’t discredit
Iowa’s monster win, but it’s too easy to toss aside the team that looked bad down the stretch in favor of one that played well. It is important to remember that with the amount of time in between the end of the season and the bowl game, a team can lose momentum as quickly as it can be gained. On the field, the vital matchup just could be South Carolina redshirt
freshman quarterback Stephen Garcia against a formidable Iowa defense. The Gamecocks’ offense threw 24 interceptions on the season, while Iowa picked off 20 passes. In addition, the Gamecocks
found it tough sledding on the ground, running for an average
of just 98.3 yards per game. Again, this all seems to favor Iowa with its stout defense that ranked tenth in the nation against the run. On the other side of the football, the Hawkeyes will have their own “green” quarterback with Ricky Stanzi taking the snaps. Stanzi was rarely in the position of having to make a difference as running back Shonn Greene and his 1,700+ yards keyed the success. This is a matchup however where the Hawkeyes are not going to be able to sit back, run the football and coast to victory. South Carolina has shown the ability to be one of the top stop defensive units in the SEC. The stats don’t necessarily show it but the speed and pursuit of the football are there. Let’s also acknowledge that USC’s offense was not as bad as the numbers suggest. They surprisingly outgained nine of their first 10 opponents on the season. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes were actually out gained in four of their last five football
games. Reports out of Columbia had the Gamecocks holding a players’ only meeting after their fiasco against Clemson to close the season. Last season’s bowl season saw six teams close out the year on runs of 5-1 or better and all six lost outright and against the spread. We toss aside what is fresh in most people’s minds and look at the bigger picture, which makes South Carolina the play.



CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Michigan State vs. Georgia -7.5 O/U 45
Thursday, January 1, 1 pm ET ABC - Orlando, Fla.
Recommendation: Georgia

Despite facing perhaps the most difficult schedule in the country, Georgia began 2008 with high aspirations for a BCS Title berth. Ranked as the No. 1 team in the nation for the first month of the season, they appeared to be well on their way with what were regarded as impressive wins at South Carolina
and Arizona State. It all collapsed when in a “blackout” game at home against Alabama, the Bulldogs were throttled by the Tide in a 41-30 loss. Georgia never seemed to fully recover,
struggling to dispatch Vanderbilt,
Tennessee, Kentucky and Auburn. Losses outright to Florida and Georgia Tech in games of significant
consequence down the stretch perhaps indicated that Georgia was overrated. Further indication
of market inflation is the fact that the Bulldogs have failed to cover eight consecutive games as a favorite. Therein lies the value as the market has over adjusted in response to Georgia’s repeated failures against the number. Still our play here is more of a play against Michigan State. Outside
of Javon Ringer there isn’t much to like about Michigan State’s offense. The receiving corps looked like a weak unit after losing Devin Thomas and Kellen Davis in the off-season. Those concerns played out on the field as quarterback Brian Hoyer barely completed 50% of his passes and had as many picks (eight) as he did touchdowns. His worst performances came against the best competition as he combined to throw three interceptions and no touchdowns in games against Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State. Knowing that, it isn’t hard to understand why Ringer carried the ball a staggering 370 times this season. Yet while Ringer has proven to be a game breaker against lesser foes, he has largely failed when forced to play against a solid defensive unit. In the three biggest games of the season against Wisconsin, Ohio State and Penn State, he barely averaged
three yards per carry as he was held to 163 yards on 54 carries. Those same three opponents racked up over 462 yards of their own on the ground. Furthermore the Spartans lost by a combined count of 104-25 to Penn State and Ohio State. These two teams were the only opponents on their schedule that held a comparable athletic edge like Georgia. Matthew Stafford will be displaying his skills for a number of pro scouts and we don’t expect him to disappoint. He finished
the year as the SEC’s leading passer and sported a solid
22-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio. But the real key to Georgia’s rout will be Knowshon Moreno who against some of the toughest
defenses in the country closed the season with five 100+ yard rushing efforts in his final seven games. This should prove to be a cakewalk as we lay the points with Georgia.





GATOR BOWL
Clemson -2.5 vs. Nebraska O/U 55
Thursday, January 1, 1 pm CBS - Jacksonville, Fla.
Recommendation: Clemson

What a turnaround for the Clemson Tigers. Mired in the malaise of another underachieving season, the program took action and fired Tommy Bowden after the Tigers fell to 3-4. More so than the actual results of the season, it appeared that the reason Bowden was fired was that he had lost his team. Several quotes attributed to key players after the coaching change spoke harshly regarding their opinion of Bowden. Team leaders CJ Spiller and Cullen Harper came out strongly and voiced their criticism. This program was in disarray until Dabo Swinney took over on an interim basis and led the Tigers to victory in four of its last five games. With the turnaround complete, he was given the head coaching position officially after the Tigers ended the regular
season by crushing their in-state rival, South Carolina. In fairness to Bowden, the real cause for the lack of success was the overwhelming amount of injuries
and attrition suffered along the offensive
line. Trying to replace three lost starters Clemson used eight different starting combinations in its 12 games. They started three red shirt freshmen and in mid-season were forced to reactivate
coach Bobby Hutchinson who had opted to forgo his final year of eligibility to join the coaching staff. It wasn’t until the final three games of the season that Clemson started the same five linemen for three consecutive games. Perhaps not coincidentally the Clemson offense started to pick up around the same time. Meanwhile
Nebraska’s nondescript season was lost in all the highlights of Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. For that matter, Missouri, Oklahoma State and even Baylor seemed to warrant more coverage. The Cornhuskers
finished the campaign 8-4 under first year head coach Bo Pelini and the enthusiasm for the program has been restored. Expected
to immediately have an impact on the defense, the results weren’t there as Nebraska allowed 362 yards per game and ranked just 66th nationally. These numbers were a far cry from Pelini’s previous successes. In 2003 his first year as Nebraska’s defensive
coordinator the defense improved from 55th to 11th in the nation. In 2004 Pelini was Oklahoma’s co-defensive coordinator
and the Sooners were 6th in rushing defense and 11th in scoring defense. He joined the LSU staff in 2005 as the Tigers’ defensive
coordinator. LSU was ranked third nationally in overall defense for each of his three years with the Tigers. The same overwhelming improvement did not occur for Nebraska. Against both the run and the pass, the Cornhuskers were susceptible. While Clemson’s season long numbers don’t show it, this offense is capable as evidenced by the fact that they scored 27 or more in four of its last five games. Defensively
Clemson performed well all season long allowing only two opponents, Alabama and Florida State, to score more than 21 points. All totaled they held six of their 12 opponents to 14 or fewer points. In this matchup Clemson holds advantages over Nebraska on both sides of the ball. We expect a strong effort from Tigers and will side with the better defensive team in a motivated setting. Lay the short price.



ROSE BOWL
Penn State vs. USC -10 O/U 45.5
Thursday, January 1, 4:30 pm ET ABC - Pasadena, Calif.
Recommendation: Under

Many would argue this Rose Bowl matchup would be a perfect game for a No. 4 versus No. 5 seed in an eight-team playoff system.
While that projected “playoff” game won’t take place, this game still has plenty of meaning as Pasadena gets its traditional Big Ten vs. Pac-10 matchup. The overall story for both teams this season is strikingly similar. Both USC and Penn State played in conferences that were down, they both dominated inferior foes and they each had one small blemish on their otherwise impressive
resumes. Penn State is expected to travel over 25,000 strong for this game and while they certainly had aspirations of an undefeated
season and a National Championship, enthusiasm runs high. While the experience is new for Penn State, the Rose Bowl is becoming a regular part of USC’s schedule. This will mark their fourth straight year in the granddaddy of them all. The Trojans
absolutely crushed its last two Big Ten opponents, Michigan and Illinois,
by a combined score of 81-35. Most would agree that Penn State is better than those two previous Big Ten entrants. While we can’t take too much from the results these two teams do share one common opponent
in the sturdy Ohio State Buckeyes. Early in the season USC as a 10.5-point home favorite blitzed Ohio State 35-3. Later in the season the Nittany Lions won in Columbus 13-6 as a small road favorite. Combined Ohio State scored just nine points total in the two games. Defense should rule the field in this match-up as well. On the field, the intriguing and perhaps deciding matchup will be the tremendous USC defense against Penn State’s “Spread-HD” offense.
On the season, USC allowed just 206 yards a game and an amazing 7.8 points per contest. In fact, they allowed just two teams to score double-digits and allowed only two passing touchdowns their last eight games. Need more impressive defensive ammo, how about this stat? In Pac-10 play, USC allowed
opponents inside the red zone just 22 times. We can not project the Penn State rush offense to produce even close to its 212 rushing yards per game average. Therefore the onus falls to the passing game and more specifically quarterback Daryll Clark. Clearly, he and the rest of the Nittany Lions will have their hands full. For much of the season, Clark was arguably the best quarterback in the Big Ten. However he failed against better competition.
He was pulled from the game and benched against Ohio State and in their lone loss of the season to Iowa he was dismal with a 9-of-23 performance. USC’s offense was certainly not as potent as past editions. The Trojans’ seemed bogged down at key moments with Mark Sanchez under center. Outside of contests against both Washington schools, USC averaged a modest 28.5 points per game in league play. Throughout the season were numerous times when the Trojans looked more than comfortable to rely on its defense and to play it conservative on offense. We expect that same approach
to be on display here as well. Play it under the number.




ORANGE BOWL
Cincinnati -1.5 vs. Virginia Tech O/U 41.5
Thursday, January 1, 8:30 pm ET FOX - Miami
Recommendation: Cincinnati

For the Hokies, a trip to the BCS is nothing new. Having a virtual
stranglehold on the ACC and Big East over the past ten seasons, Virginia Tech has made it to four BCS games. Unfortunately
they have lost each appearance including last year to Kansas. For the Bearcats, they will be in uncharted waters as Brian Kelly’s team wrapped up their first ever BCS appearance
and Big East title. The path for both teams was quite different this season. The Hokies somehow escaped the ACC despite sporting
the conference’s worst offense and having a pair of quarterbacks who failed to qualify for the season
ending passer-rating category. Of course it was expected that this team would struggle for points early on after dismissing their best running back and losing numerous
talented receivers to the NFL. But the widely held belief that this team would improve down the stretch just didn’t turn out to be true. The Hokies barely managed to score 20 points per game in ACC play, scoring just 14 offensive touchdowns in eight games. The opposition has dared Virginia Tech to beat them in one-on-one coverage and more often than not they failed to do so. Fundamentally this will prove to be a tough matchup against a stellar Cincinnati secondary that sports a DYPP of just 5.10 according to our Accu-Stat numbers – one of the best in the country. Cincinnati’s own offense has managed
to overcome numerous setbacks at the quarterback position. First, they learned Ben Mauk would be denied eligibility
and then they lost Dustin Grutza just weeks into the season. His replacement, Tony Pike, went down with an injury a few weeks later. Still the Bearcats persevered, going on to beat West Virginia, Rutgers, Pitt and Louisville en route to a conference championship. All told, the trio of starters under center combined to throw for 3,300 yards and 25 touchdowns
with just 11 interceptions. Kelly’s “Cat Attack” system has proven to be a thorn in many a defenses’ side and their multiple spread formations should be a handful for the Virginia Tech defense. In their last five bowl appearances the Hokies have lost four times and the defense has allowed nearly 15 points per game more than their season average in those contests. So for as good as Frank Beamer’s teams have been in the regular season they have largely failed to live up to the hype come postseason play. While this could be considered just another game for Virginia Tech, it is a big deal for Cincinnati. Brian Kelly is a great coach and his teams are on a 34-12 spread run dating back to his time at Central Michigan. Finding ways to win regardless
of the situation or opponent is something Cincinnati does regularly. No reason to expect anything different here.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP = 13-8


SYSTEM SELECTIONS:

UNGROUNDED
Play AGAINST a New Years Day Bowl Team that was outrushed by 20+ ypg during the year.
Reasoning: Being in a Major Bowl, you are playing against a quality opponent and need to be able to establish a running game to compete.
10-0 100% ATS since 1996
Play against S Carolina PLAY: IOWA




OUTBACK BOWL

This is the first meeting between these schools but Tampa is a familiar destination for both. Iowa has been here twice upsetting Zook’s Florida Gators 37-17 (+3’) in ‘03 but losing to Meyer’s 1st Gators squad, 31-24 (E) in ‘05. SC is 2-0 SU & ATS here beating Ohio St in B2B matchups under Lou Holtz in ‘00 & ‘01. Ferentz is 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in bowls (2-1 SU & ATS vs SEC) but this is the 1st time his team is favored. Spurrier is 7-7 SU & ATS in bowls (1-1 at SC) and 1-2 SU & ATS as a bowl dog. Iowa is 5-3 ATS as a fav & SC is 1-3-1 as a dog TY. UI was 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS vs bowl teams with the 3 losses (all vs tms with 9 wins) by a combined 9 pts. The Hawks outscored bowl foes 28-16 and outgained them 368-293.
SC was 3-5 vs bowl tms (3-4-1 ATS) being outscored 24-19 with the ydg surprisingly even. Iowa got this bowl bid over a 9 win Northwestern team that it lost to based on their reputation as travellers and their fans should be eager to snap up tickets after sitting home LY. SC also sat home in ‘07 at 6-6 and have sold their allotments to previous bowls giving them this bid over LSU. Iowa has 6 senior starters among 11 upperclassmen and SC has 7 senior starters and 15 upperclassmen in starting roles. The Hawkeyes finished the spring with a walk-on as the starting TB and QB Christensen in his 2nd season as a starter. Over the summer bruising TB Shonn Greene returned to the program and the Hawks wisely built their #41 offense around him. The results were spectacular as Greene set a school record in rush yards, earning the Big Ten’s Offensive POY as the NCAA’s only RB to run for at least 100 yds in all 12 games. Greene’s presence allowed the staff to bench Christensen for the more mobile Ricky Stanzi. Stanzi’s level of play picked up as the season progressed as he led the Hawks to their 4Q comeback over undefeated Penn St. His top targets are WR’s Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (7 rec vs the Lions) and 1st Tm All Big Ten TE Brandon Myers. The OL was greatly improved as they cut their sacks allowed from 46 in ‘07 to 26 (8.6%). Iowa is #10 in our defensive rankings. UI has the NCAA’s most experienced DT tandem in Matt Kroul and Big Ten DL of the Year Mitch King. With them clogging the middle the Hawks are #10 in the NCAA in rush defense (98.3, 3.1). The LB’s are active with 2nd Tm Big Ten honoree Pat Angerer actually leading the league in int’s. The secondary is #8 in our pass eff D allowing 191 ypg (56%) with an 8-20 ratio. Iowa has our #30 ST’s unit led by P Ryan Donahue. Spurrier is notoriously hard on QBs and TY was no exception but the QB position was just one of many disappointing parts of SC’s #73 offense. Beecher started the opener but threw 4 int and was later
inj’d playing just 1 more gm all yr. Smelley (6 sts ‘07) std the next 6, until Garcia led SC to 10 pts in the 4Q vs KY to pull out a 24-17 win, earning the start at LSU. Garcia st’d the next 2 until a knee inj vs Tenn
gave Smelley another chance. Smelley st’d the L/3 with both QBs alternating on every other snap vs Ark and then both playing in their blowout loss to FL. Smelley played the whole gm in a losing effort vs
Clemson and Spurrier said that Garcia would start the bowl. QB cch Reaves left SC after the reg ssn. RB Davis led the tm in rushing, but SC ranks last in the SEC (#108 NCAA) in rush off (98 ypg, 2.9). WR
McKinley led the tm in recs & rec yds despite missing 3 gms with an inj and surpassed Sterling Sharpe as SC’s all-time leading rec and rec ydg leader. TE Cook has 4.37 spd and was named 1st Tm SEC. The
OL was once again a weakness with the lineup shuffled often to try to increase production. The starters avg 6’5” 301 with 2 seniors but allowed 38 sks (9.5%, 2nd worst in SEC) and OL coach Hunt was let go after the reg ssn. SC’s #11 defense made huge strides under new DC Ellis Johnson TY improving their rush ypg allowed from 209 (4.8) in ‘07 to 129 ypg (3.6) TY. LB Norwood earned 1st Tm SEC leading the tm with 13 tfl and SS Emanuel Cook is 2nd Tm SEC leading the tm in tkls for the 2nd straight yr. SC is #26 in our pass D rankings allowing 160 pass ypg (57%) with an 8-12 ratio. SC’s sp tms rank #56 with K Succop missing 2 FGs vs Vandy and 4 vs UK (2 were 50+) but otherwise hitting 17 of 20 and had TBs
on 42% of his KOs. The return gm was avg and P Lanning’s net was just 34.3. Iowa finished the season with 3 straight wins including the upset of Penn St to make it to this bowl. South Carolina meanwhile dropped their last 2 (Clemson & Florida) by a combined score of 87-20. The key to this game will be the QB that makes the fewest mistakes as both defenses rate in the Top 15. The Iowa offense is reliant on AA RB Greene who had 100+ rush yds in all 12 games. We are calling for Iowa to win by 3 vs Spurrier and a tough defense.
FORECAST: IOWA BY 3
RATING: No Play


GATOR BOWL

1st meeting between the schools since the ‘81 Orange Bowl when CU beat NU 22-15 (+4) to win the National Title (12-0 ssn). This will be CU’s 9th appearance in the Gator (4-4, more than any other school, but 1st S/’00) & 31st overall (15-15). NU will be playing in their 45th bowl (22-22), but 1st here. CU finished strong under new HC Swinney (4 wins in L/5), who replaced Bowden after he resigned. This is his first bowl as a HC while its NU’s Pelini’s 2nd bowl as a HC, as he was in the interim in the ‘03 Alamo Bowl (won 17-3 over MSU, -3). CU plays all of its HG’s on grass while NU plays on turf (3-5 SU & 3-4-1 ATS on grass L/3Y). Tigers have 7 Sr starters & 15 upperclassmen while the Huskers have 11 & 16. CU is 4-6 SU & 3-6 ATS at a neutral site and has been a road fav just once TY (defeat UVA 13-3, -2’). NU has dropped both gms as an AD (1-1 ATS). NU faced the tougher schedule (#33-49). CU faced 8 bowl caliber teams and was 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS, getting outgained 325-309. NU was 3-4 SU/ATS (-4 ppg & -5 ypg). CU traditionally travels well & NU will do the same after sitting out LY during the holidays. CU’s offense is led by RB’s James Davis and CJ Spiller (2nd Tm ACC RB), QB Cullen Harper and WR Aaron Kelly (2nd Tm ACC). Davis needs just 112 rushing yds and 2 TD’s to become CU’s career
leader in both categories. He currently has 49 TD’s after a 3 TD performance vs SC in the reg ssn finale. Spiller leads the ACC in all-purp yds and needs just 114 more to become CU’s career leader. Harper
ranked third in the ACC in pass eff completing 63.2%. Kelly is the ACC’s career leader in rec’s with 226 and needs just 23 receiving yds to become CU’s all-time leader. The O-line avg 6’4” 313 but has been banged up most of the season and is avg just 3.6 ypc rush and 29 sks (#92 NCAA). In fact, Bobby Hutchinson, who was not exp to play TY and just serve as a student coach, was reinstated because of all the inj’s. Thomas Austin, however, has been solid playing C & OG and earned 2nd Tm ACC honors.
The Tigers have our #52 offense and #17 defense. Clemson’s DL also struggled at times this year all’g 3.8 ypc rush D and the team is ranked #106 in the NCAA with just 14 sacks (9 by DL). The Tigers did
lose DE Ricky Sapp for the year with a partially torn ACL vs UVA. CU, however, is #17 in the NCAA in total D and #10th in pass D. The LB corps is led by Jr Kavell Connor (#1 tkls) and rFr Brandon Maye, who was 2nd in the voting for ACC Def Rookie of the Year. The leader of the defense is 1st Tm ACC S Michael Hamlin who has 18 career takeaways (int & FR) and needs just 1 more to become CU’s all-time leader. CU has our #59 Sp Tms. Spiller was named 1st Tm ACC as a specialist and ranks #10 in the
NCAA in KR’s. CU avg’s 22.2 ypr on KR and 7.5 on PR and allows 20.2 on KR and 9.2 on PR. NU has our #13 off avg 36 ppg (28+ in 11 gms) & 458 ypg (400+ in 9 gms). The numbers mirror LY’s non-bowl squad proving that keeping OC Watson was a smart move. NU ret’d just 5 starters from LY, but the entire RB corps was back & due to QB inj’s Ganz started the final 3 (466 ypg, 15-7 ratio). He picked up were he left off, but with a new staff NU decided to keep the ball on the ground more (+30 ypg from ‘07).
RB Lucky sat out the ssn finale but Helu (1st career start) ran for a NU ssn high 166 yds & has 3 of the Huskers’ 100 yd efforts (all in L/4 gms). WR Swift is just the 2nd NU player ever to top 900+ rec yds & with
Peterson makes up the B12’s most way for 174 ypg (4.6) allowing 21 sks (5.3%). The OL will be the healthiest it’s been all ssn for the bowl.
The def returned 6 starters from a ‘07 squad that allowed 38 ppg & 477 ypg (worst in school history!). They improved drastically TY allowing 29 ppg, just 362 ypg & have tallied 30 sks (T-#3 B12) to rank #51. The DL
avg 6’5” 281 (2 Sr starters), allowing 126 ypg (3.9) & have accounted for 80% of the sks. The DL leader is 2nd Tm B12 Suh (led B12 in tkls among DL). LB Glenn may miss the bowl (susp, CS), but Dillard should
be 100% anchoring the unit. NU has our #45 pass eff def allowing 236 ypg (59%) with a 17-10 ratio. The ST’s rank #64. K Henery’s 57 yd gm winning FG over CU was the longest in Husker history. HC Swinney certainly earned his new head coaching position by rallying the Tigers to a 4-1 SU/ATS finish. The defense did their job by all’g a total of 24 pts the L3 games albeit vs the offenses of Duke, Virg and S Carolina. The games in which Spiller and Davis were shut down were ugly as they scored 17 or
less in those 4 losses. The Huskers played up to their potential as they handled each of the opponents they should have while all 4 losses were to current Top 20 teams. We like the matchup as Clemson has yet to face a true passing offense while the Huskers bring a balanced rush/pass attack.
FORECAST: NEBRASKA BY 7
RATING: 3*




CAPITAL ONE BOWL

The only meeting between these 2 teams was a 34-27 win (line Even) by UGA in the 1989 Gator Bowl. UGA is 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) vs Big Ten tms in bowls S/‘88 (7-2 all-time SU). MSU has only played 3 SEC tms S/’47 and all were in bowls (1-2 SU & ATS). Richt is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in bowls and LY smoked undefeated #10 Hawaii 41-10 in the Sugar Bowl (-7’). Dantonio is 1-1 SU in bowls and 2-0 ATS losing SU but covering vs Matt Ryan’s BC team LY in the Champs Sports Bowl which is played
in the same stadium. MSU brought 25,000 fans to that contest which secured their bid for this bowl. The Bulldogs own the SEC’s last win in the Capital One Bowl, a 34-27 OT win over Purdue following the ‘03 ssn & UGA has won & covered their L/2 in this bowl. MSU won their only previous appearance in this bowl, 37-34 (+2’) over Florida in ‘99 after Nick Saban left for LSU. That was the last time MSU won 10 games, which has happened just twice in school history. UGA is on an 0-6 run as a favorite
including suffering an outright upset to GT in their home finale. The Spartans were 0-3 ATS as a dog TY losing by an avg of 25 ppg to Cal, OSU & PSU. UGA has played 8 bowl teams with a 5-3 SU record
(2-5-1 ATS) and only outscored those tms by an avg of 34-31 but outgained bowl tms by an avg of 425-351. MSU is also 5-3 SU and 2-5-1 ATS vs bowl squads getting outscored 25-22 and outgained 350-347. UGA has only 5 seniors in the starting lineup and 10 upperclassmen. The Spartans have 7 seniors among their 14 upperclassmen starters.
MSU’s #44 offense rode its durable workhorse Javon Ringer. After sharing the load in ‘07, Doak Walker finalist Ringer led the NCAA with 370 carries, 344 carries more than the team’s #2 rusher. The emphasis on the ground game took the pressure off senior QB Brian Hoyer and a young receiving corps. Hoyer struggled in LY’s bowl with 5 TO’s including 4 int. He finished with the 2nd lowest completion % among BCS starting QB’s. His play did pick up down the stretch thanks to the emergence of WR Blair White
who had 20 rec for 427 yds in the L/4. The big OL (6’5” 312 avg) paved the way for Ringer’s success and also allowed just 18 sks (5.0%). The Spartans have our #34 stop unit. MSU’s DL is led by DE Trevor
Anderson’s 8 sks. 1st Tm Big Ten sophomore Greg Jones led the LB corps. The secondary ranks #29 in our pass efficiency led by All-Big Ten SS Otis Wiley. They will now face a potential #1 DC at QB for the 2nd bowl in a row as they held BC QB Ryan to 22-47 for 249 yds with a 3-3 ratio in his final college game. The ST’s are #55 with K Swenson setting a school record by hitting 15 straight FG’s. UGA started the season #1 but injuries really took a toll on this team. UGA QB Stafford leads the SEC in passing averaging 267 ypg for our #11 offense. Highlight-reel RB Moreno is also the SEC leader in rush ypg (111.5) and a Doak Walker finalist. UGA also boasts the SEC’s top 2 leaders in rec ypg, true frosh WR Green (79.3) and senior WR Massaquoi (75.8) who finally fulfilled his massive potential
this year. The only purported weakness on offense lies in the OL which has been banged up all year and lost 3 players (including 2 starters) to season ending injuries. Despite that, UGA averaged 154 rush ypg (4.7) and the OL only allowed 15 sks (#2 in SEC) in 369 pass atts (4.1%). The starting OL consists of 3 frosh and 2 sophs and they average 6’5” 298. The Bulldogs #31 D also had significant inj’s in ‘08 with future NFL DT Owens lost for the year in the opener and starting DE Battle and MLB
Ellerbe missing significant PT with inj’s. UGA ranked last in the SEC in sks (18) and struggled against the run at the end of the yr allowing 226 (5.0) in the L/5 including 409 vs GT. With those inj’s, soph LB Rennie Curran became the standout leading the tm in tkls (109) and tfl (9). UGA’s secondary finished #63 in our pass D rankings allowing 188 ypg (56%) with a 17-10 ratio. UGA’s #20 ST unit is led by P Mimbs with a super 37.6 net. True frosh K Walsh started out strong, but missed 6 of his L/10 FG’s.
Georgia could not live up to the early hype after being picked #1 in the summer. Attrition took its toll as they struggled against the SEC leaders. While they finished the season on an 0-6 ATS run as favorites, they have now rallied behind HC Richt’s cries to make this the 1st game towards next
season. Michigan St has nice numbers this season but check out what they’ve done against teams with winning records. They’ve gone 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS vs Cal, Iowa, OSU, Wisky and Penn St. This game will show just how much difference you can have between a pair of 9-3 squads.
FORECAST: GEORGIA BY 14
RATING: 2* GEORGIA



ROSE BOWL

Under Paterno the Lions are 4-3 SU & ATS vs the Trojans with the last contest coming in the 2000 Kickoff Classic, a 29-5 USC (+2) win. The Trojans won the lone previous Rose Bowl matchup, 14-3 in ‘23. USC now
makes its record 7th straight BCS appearance and 34th Rose Bowl bid overall (23-10 SU). Carroll is 5-2 SU & ATS in bowls including 2-1 SU/ATS in the Grandaddy of Them All. Paterno is an NCAA best 23-10-1
SU & 21-9-1 ATS in bowls with this being just his 2nd trip to Pasadena. The Lions (-17) won the 1994 Rose Bowl over Oregon, 38-20 which capped an undefeated season. The teams each played the Big Ten and P10 runnerups. PSU finished 2-0 SU & ATS winning by an avg of 29-10 and outgaining them 368-315. USC was 1-1 SU & ATS (329-276 yd edge) with their Sept 25th upset loss at Oreg St costing them a trip to the title
game. Under Carroll USC is 5-0 SU/ATS vs the Big Ten outscoring them by 22.6 ppg. USC is 5-1 SU/3-3 ATS vs bowl tms TY outgaining them 414-206 while PSU is 4-1 SU & ATS outgaining bowl foes 392-307. USC is 5-1 SU but 2-4 ATS on the road TY while PSU is 4-1 SU & ATS. The Trojans have 10 senior starters (8 on D) among 17 upperclassmen while the Lions have 12 seniors and 17 upperclassmen. USC is 11-17-1 ATS as a DD fav while PSU has been a DD dog just once S/’04 (28-6 loss at OSU, +17).
Paterno vowed that the Lions would be back in the national title hunt again in ‘08. The Lions moved to the Spread HD to best utilize athletic QB Daryll Clark. In the Lions’ 1st 6 gms Clark led the league in pass eff and
threw just 1 int. He suffered a concussion vs Ohio St but backup Pat Devlin led the Lions to the big win. Clark struggled hitting 9-23 for 86 yds in the loss to Iowa in which they blew a 2H lead and their chance at the title game. He ended the season hitting 16-26 for 341 yds & 4 TD’s vs MSU. Devlin opted to trans foll the season. Clark’s top target was Deon Butler who broke Bobby Engram’s school receptions record. Evan Royster and speedy Stephfon Green led the run game. The OL had 3 members named 1st Tm All-Big Ten led by AA C AQ Shipley. They paved the way for a 5.3 ypg and allowed just 12 sks (3.5%). Despite suffering some major
personnel losses (2 DT’s kicked off in Aug & top LB Lee tore his ACL) the Lions still have our #7 defense. DE Maurice Evans (12.5 sk in ‘07) was suspended early on and ended up losing his job to Aaron Maybin who
finished #4 in the NCAA with 12 sk. Navarro Bowman (1st Tm All-Big Ten) emerged as the leading tackler. The secondary is #15 in pass eff allowing 168 ypg (54%) with a 6-16 ratio (2nd fewest TD passes allowed in
country to USC’s 4). The Lions are always strong on ST’s with our #7 ranking led by return specialist Derrick Williams (3 combined ret TD’s in ‘08) and the Big Ten’s all-time leading scorer K Kevin Kelly. QB Sanchez showed his toughness throughout 2008 starting all 12 gms despite dealing with a bad knee for the 1H of the yr. He led the P10 with an outstanding pass eff mark of 159.1 earning 1st Tm All-Conf in his 1st full yr as a starter. The Trojans run game was a 3-headed monster in ‘08 as Gable, McKnight & Johnson were all given their share of the carries, to keep the opposition guessing. FB Havili also became a key part of the USC off, especially in the blk’g & pass gm while earning praise wk in & wk out from Carroll. The WR position proved to have the most depth TY as Turner had a steady year while Ark trans Williams stepped in as Sanchez’s #1 target on the year. The OL is loaded with young talent & size (6’5” 292) led by LG Jeff Byers who is the only Sr starter up front. They paved the way for 206 ypg (5.3) while surrendering 17 sks (4.8%) on the ssn. Overall the Trojan off finished with our #7 overall ranking on the ssn and will have newly named UW HC Sarkisian avail as the OC here. USC finished with our #1 overall def as they dominated competition all’g just 206 ypg & 7.8 ppg while giving up just 22 2H points the entire year! The DL avg 6’4” 271 all’g an NCAA best 83 ypg rush (2.6) led by DT Moala & DE Matthews. The LB corps is arguably the best in the nation with Pac-10 DPOY Maualuga, Cushing & Maiava. The secondary all’d 123 ypg (51.6%) with a 4-17 ratio ranking #1 in pass eff D. USC finished with our #61 ST’s as K Buehler had hit 8 of 9 FG’s on the ssn prior to missing all 3 vs UCLA. These 2 heavyweights both had National Championship aspirations throughout the season. Each also
faced the opposing conf’s runner-up as USC handled Ohio St and Penn St dominated Oregon St. The Lions are excited to be here for their first Rose Bowl in 14 years while the Trojans were openly clamoring to play a Big 12 or SEC opponent before they clinched their 4th straight Rose Bowl bid. USC has the high profile players but this Penn State squad has not only won but dominated giving 5 teams their worst loss of the season. USC meanwhile has struggled to score on the road against winning teams having been shutout in the 1H at Oregon St 21-0 and only leading 10-3 at HT at Arizona. This doesn’t bode well for a DD favorite against a Paterno team with unlimited prep time.
FORECAST: PENN ST (+) BY 3
RATING: 4* PENN ST


ORANGE BOWL


Orange Bowl’s 75th anniversary. The Bearcats & Hokies are the lowest-ranked BCS participants. This will be the 9th meeting (4-4) between these 2 teams with Cincy going 5-2 ATS . They last met in ‘06 & UC led 10-5 with a 164-106 yd edge 1H in the 29-13 (+27’) loss to #11 VT. This will be UC’s 3rd straight bowl & 1st BCS appearance, they are 5-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in bowls. The Cats got their school record 11th win, won its 1st BE Title & will play their first Jan 1st bowl game since the 1951 Sun Bowl. VT is making it’s 16th straight (5 BCS) postseason trip including it’s 2nd straight here under Beamer as he’s gone 6-9 SU & ATS. VT will try to end their 4 gm losing streak in BCS gms (last win ‘95 Sugar Bowl) & will try to become the 1st ACC team to win a BCS bowl S/#1 FSU won the National Title in the 2000 Sugar Bowl (#2 VT lost 46-29). This will be VT’s 3rd appearance in the Orange Bowl & they have gone 0-2 SU & ATS. With a win here VT will have won 10 or more under Beamer in 8 of the L10Y. The Hokies have faced 8 bowl caliber teams (BC 2X) going 5-4 SU & ATS, outscoring them 23-21 but were outgained 303-278. The Cats have
played 7 bowl caliber (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) teams being outscored 26-23 & outgained 350-332. Cincy is 3-5 SU & ATS on grass while VT plays it’s home games on it. Cincy is 9-3-1 ATS vs ranked teams the L3Y.
UC HC Kelly has won 3 Div II Champs at Grand Valley St, 1 MAC Title & is 2-0 (0-2 ATS) in bowls incl LY in the Papajohns.com Bowl. In 2007, the Bearcats capped off the season with a 31-21 bowl win over S Miss giving
them 10 wins which equaled a school record & finished #17 in the AP Poll for the 1st time in school history. The Cats took aim at the BE Title & BCS berth despite many forecasting them to finish in the lower half of the
BE standings. Kelly earned BE Coach of the Year honors. The ssn began with ‘07 QB Mauk denied a 6th year, which left the Cats with ‘05-‘06 starter Dustin Grutza. He went down with broken leg vs OK which left UC with Jr Tony Pike. Pike nearly left the program in the offseason due to lack of playing time. Pike took over but inj’d his non-throwing arm & missed 2 games. In all, UC played 5 different QB’s. Pike returned & led Cincy to big
wins over WV, USF, UL & Pitt. He is avg 197 ypg (63%) with a 18-7 ratio. Cincy platooned Ramsey & Goebel at RB and they combined for 1,211 (4.5) rush yds. The key to the offense is the WR corps, Goodman has 78
rec (12.5) and 7 TD’s & Gilyard 74 rec (15.1) & 10 TD’s. Goodman was inj’d in the finale (CS). The OL avg 6’4” 303 yds paving the way for 121 ypg (3.6) while all’g 30 sks (6.8%). The Cats have our #57 off & #21 def. UC
returned a veteran defense with 10 Sr starters back, most of whom played as Fr & Soph’s. The DL boasts 4 Sr’s avg 6’3” 275 led by Byrd, Nelms & converted TE Barwin, who moved to DE, leads the BE in sacks. The LB corp is led by 3 of the top 4 tklr’s in Manalac, Cornett & Smith. The secondary is loaded with talent in unanimous All-BE CB Mickens who was inj’d for final 3 (CS), All-BE CB Smith & Ohio St transfer Underwood. UC has our #33 pass eff def all’g 212 ypg (56%) with 18-16 ratio. UC has our #1 ST’s ranking led by AA Punter Huber’s 44.9 ypp & KR Gilyard who avg 28.0 ypr (#9 in NCAA) & earned BE ST’s POY honors. VT has won 3 ACC Titles in their 5 years in the conf. QB Taylor was virtually flawless in wins over UVA & BC in the ACC champ game. Taylor started the year thinking he was going to be redshirted & Glennon was going to be the starter but after #17 VT while being upset by unranked EC 27-22, Taylor was inserted into the starting role but he does split time w/Glennon. RFr RB Evans has the 10th-highest rushing total in VT history. WR Coale is the only frosh on the team to start every game TY & is #1 in rec’s. The O-line avg 6’4” 310 paving the way for 3.7 ypc rush but surprisingly gave up 39 sks (14.6%). The OL is anchored by 2nd Tm ACC OG Render, HM ACC OG Marshman & HM ACC C Shuman. The Hokies have our #75 offense
& #18 defense. VT’s D-line avg 6’2” 274 & is led by 2nd Tm ACC DE’s Martin & Worilds. Worilds has 5.5 sks, 10 tfl & 2 FF in the L/5 gms & has done all that despite a separated left shoulder. VT ranks #19 in the
NCAA in rush D. Since 1999, the Hokies are 89-8 when outrushing their opp & 9-20 when outrushed. The LB’s are the top 3 tklr’s on the team. The Hokies have our #39 pass D all’g 170 ypg & have 16 int. VT has
a dangerous secondary as Harris (1st Tm ACC) is one of the best CB’s in the nation (2 IR TD’s) & Virgil is underrated. VT has our #86 spec tms. K Dustin Keys has been solid & earned HM ACC honors. VT is avg 20.9 on KR’s & 9.3 on PR’s while all’g 19.1 on KR’s & 12.7 on PR’s. Cincinnati finished the season with 6 straight wins earning them the Big East Title & an Orange Bowl berth. This is not only their 1st BCS game but their 1st traditional NY’s Day bowl. VT has lost 4 straight BCS bowls which keeps them hungry & also unfazed by the pageantry surrounding this game. This is a situation where one team will clearly come to play while being a learning experience for the other.
FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH BY 7
RATING: 2*
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SUNSHINE FORECAST

Thursday, January 1, 2009

Iowa(-3) vs. South Carolina [Outback Bowl]

Power Rating Projection:

Iowa 27 South Carolina 16
Statistical Projections

Iowa 25

Rushing Yards: 168
Passing Yards: 173
Turnovers: 2 South Carolina 13

Rushing Yards: 69
Passing Yards: 188
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

South Carolina 21 Iowa 14
South Carolina (1 star)


Clemson(-3) vs. Nebraska [Gator Bowl]

Power Rating Projection:

Nebraska 29 Clemson 25
Statistical Projections

Clemson 28

Rushing Yards: 83
Passing Yards: 274
Turnovers: 1 Nebraska 24

Rushing Yards: 155
Passing Yards: 227
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Nebraska 31 Clemson 27


Michigan State(+7) vs. Georgia [Capital One Bowl]

Power Rating Projection:

Georgia 27 Michigan State 26
Statistical Projections

Michigan State 29

Rushing Yards: 108
Passing Yards: 248
Turnovers: 1 Georgia 29

Rushing Yards: 160
Passing Yards: 290
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Georgia 28 Michigan State 27


Penn State(+10) vs. Southern Cal [Rose Bowl]

Power Rating Projection:

Southern Cal 26 Penn State 23
Statistical Projections

Penn State 19

Rushing Yards: 141
Passing Yards: 158
Turnovers: 1 Southern Cal 24

Rushing Yards: 155
Passing Yards: 210
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Southern Cal 34 Penn State 13
Southern Cal (1 star)


Virginia Tech(+2) vs. Cincinnati [Orange Bowl]

Power Rating Projection:

Cincinnati 22 Virginia Tech 21
Statistical Projections

Virginia Tech 20

Rushing Yards: 134
Passing Yards: 116
Turnovers: 1 Cincinnati 22

Rushing Yards: 84
Passing Yards: 266
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Cincinnati 19 Virginia Tech 17

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lenny Del Genio

Nebraska +2 vs Clemson

In all our years of watching College Football on New Years Day, we can't remember a single more undeserving team to get the coveted spot than this year's edition of the Clemson Tigers. Sure, they were SUPPOSED to get here as they were a consensus top ten team in the country before the season started and the favorite to win the ACC. But they never lived up to expectations, got Tommy Bowden fired and went just 4-4 in conference play. They should consider this bowl invite a gift considering that there were three conference teams with better records than the Tigers, two of which beat them H2H, that are already done for the season. You might think that this kind of lucky invite could help galvanize Clemson, but you would be wrong. It just never happened this year. The Davis/Spiller RB combo combined for just 200 yards once in 11 lined games this season. There is turmoil on the coaching staff, with new assistants coming in, which will serve to distract and unmotivate the current employees. Meanwhile, on the Nebraska sidelines, 1st year HC Bo Pelini made tremendous strides in returning this program to its roots. The Cornhuskers offense has gone back to run-first and it paid off with the average time of possession coming in at over 33 minutes per game. Nebraska averages over 36 PPG. Clemson is 0-6 ATS when allowing 28+ points. The right team was favored initially, so we take advantage of the public's mistake and call for the outright "upset" in the 2009 Gator Bowl. Nebraska is our "VEGAS ICON" Play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Randizzle's pick

has hit a slide but still up over 100 units this season:

3-8-0 -12.6 Units in bowls

01-01-09 Play

Iowa -3 -120 (2 Units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nostradamus

South Carolina +3.5
Nebraska +2
Michigan St +7.5
USC -9
Cincinnati -2

Chicago -135
Nashville -120

Western Kentucky -12.5
Rider +6
Fairfield +11.5
Florida Atlantic +2
Nedw Orleans -3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tim Trushel

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->20* s.carolina
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Over 44 1/2 Usc/Penn State

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wild Bill

Nebraska +3 (5 units)
Offense for Nebraska has more weapons along with special teams. Clemson has new coach in place who took over on an interim basis during the mid-season, however, Seniors for Huskers want this one very badly..Nebraska ave margin of victory this year is 7 points, Clemson's is 9 points. This will be a hard fought contest...Nebraska 31 Clemson 30...

Georgia -7 1/2 (5 units)
Big 10 teams have not done well in the Citrus Bowl other than Penn State in the past, and the Dawgs looking to atone for brutal finish to the year vs a one dimensional offense that's built around Ringer...Georgia rolls 42-17.

Penn St +10 1/2 (5 units)
USC defense is stellar yes. Didn't USC get beat on the road at Oregon St? Didn't Penn St roll over Oregon St early in the year? This is the same Penn St club and the same USC club with everyone basically healthy in this tilt. You have a great offense vs a very good defense and something has to give here. Home field advantage? Somewhat! Special teams? Have to give the edge to PSU on that end with a very good kicker and punter. Hardly any one on ESPN is giving PSU any chance vs USC however, I see Joe Pa's club playing tough and smart in this one and hang in there for a very exciting game. USC 31 PSU 27...

Over 45 Penn St-USC (5 units)

Cincy -1 (5 units)
Cincy defense vs VTech defense, edge to Cincy and special teams. UC 24 VT 20..

 

[brady1983]

Larry Ness New Years Day Plays

9* Bowl Total

I begin this analysis by quoting myself in my first 20* bowl total of the 2008-09 bowl season. I took West Va and North Carolina 'over 46' and the teams combined for 35 first-quarter points and a game which finished 31-30 West Va, was 'over' with nine minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Here's how I concluded that analysis. "West Va's averaged 41.3 PPG in Pat White's previous three bowl wins and the games have averaged 74.0 PPG. Throw in West Va's other four bowl games this decade where those contests finished with totals of 48, 48, 70 and 87 points, and West Va bowl games have averaged 67.6 PPG this decade! While West Va's defense is top-notch (15.9 PPG allowed / ranked 9th), I see White excelling once again and North Carolina playing along right." Often times, handicapping has a lot to do with 'feel.' My 'feel' here is that "the old ball coach" has more than a few surprises in store for Kirk Ferentz and his Hawkeyes on January 1 in Tampa. Spurrier's Gamecocks can't run the ball at all, averaging 98.3 YPG (ranks 108th) with an average of 2.9 per rush. His Fun 'n Gun offense has had little 'punch' this year as QB Chris Smelley's play has resembled his name (56.5% with 13 TDs and 15 INTs). Starting this game at QB will be freshman Stephen Garcia, who is only marginally better than Smelley but is likely more motivated. Garcia is from Tampa and is reportedly excited to get a chance to play in front of family and friends in his hometown of Tampa. He has a terrific WR in Kenny McKinley, who with 48 catches this year, now has 201 career receptions, which is a school record. Also, TE Jared Cook (All-SEC) was quoted as saying, "I can't wait man; this is a good chance to finally come out in our last game and prove ourselves to the world." What he's taling about is South Carolina's two-game collapse at the end of the regular season. South Carolina was 7-3 entering its game at Florida on Nov 15. All three losses had come by seven points, losing at Vandy, home to Georgia and at LSU (nothing to be ashamed of in those scores). However, the Gators 'pasted' the Gamecocks 56-6, gaining 519 yards. Then two weeks late, South Carolina lost 31-14 at hated-Clemson. South Carolina's defense entered the Florida game allowing just 15.6 PPG and 256.5 YPG but allowed 87 points (43.5 per) and 902 yards (451 per) in those final two games, while committing eight turnovers (four in each game). In fact, turnovers have been a major problem for South Carolina all season, committing 33 (only Hawaii, Wash St and Wyoming have more). Iowa has a tough 'D,' allowing 13.3 PPG (ranks 8th) and 288.9 YPG (ranks 13th) but it's my 'call' that Spurrier and Co. will be up to the challenge. Consider this. Spuurier returned to the college ranks at South Carolina for the 2005 season and took the Gamecocks to back-to-back bowl games, before LY's 6-6 season (lost final five games). Spurrier's first two bowl games with South Carolina ended in a 38-31 loss to Missouri in '05 and a 44-36 win over Houston in '06. That's two games which have averaged 74.5 PPG. This total is 'hovering' around 43 and I don't expect Iowa to be a 'silent spectator' in this one. After all, Iowa finished with FIVE wins in its final six games, including its 24-23 upset of Penn State on Nov 8. RB Shonn Greene topped 100 yards in all 12 games TY (1,729 yards / 6.2 YPC / 17 TDS) and I believe South Carolina's defense was 'exposed' in those final two games. Also, don't think that for a second that Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes are not excited to be back in a bowl game, especially one on New Year's Day. Ferentz began at Iowa back in 1999, going 1-10 and 3-9 in his first two seasons. However, beginning in 2001, he had led the Hawkeyes to SIX consecutive bowl games (including the Orange Bowl in the 2002 season) before last year's 6-6 season. Will this game go 'over' as easily as West Va / NC? I can't promise that but I don't believe we'll have to 'sweat out' the 4th quarter!


9* Bowl Total on Iowa/South Carolina Over.


7* Massive Mismatch

Both Georgia and Michigan State come into this game 9-3 but it's fair to say that while the Spartans are thrilled to be in this New Year's Day bowl, the Bulldogs have to be somewhat disappointed. Many argued that Georgia was as good as any CFB team by the end of the 2007 and Georgia began the year No. 1 in both the AP and Coaches' polls. However, it's also pretty fair to say that things never 'clicked' this year for Georgia. The Bulldogs were 'hammered' in their two big showdown games at home to Alabama (lost 41-30 after trailing 31-0 at the half) and in Jacksonville 49-10 to Florida (trailed 35-3 at the end of the 3rd quarter). Then, in the season's final regular season game ("between the hedges"), Georgia took a 28-12 halftime lead, only to lose 45-42, while allowing 409 rushing yards for the game. I think it's safe to say that head coach Mark Richt, all of his players and surely the Georgia fans, had no intention of spending New Year's Day in Orlando. However, I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss Georgia's chances in this game. While I congratulate Michigan State for its 9-3 season, I believe the Spartans are VASTLY overrated. RB Javon Ringer ran for 1,590 yards (4.3 YPC and 21 TDs) but MSU's running game is NOT all that impressive, despite the presence of four, fifth-year seniors on the OL. The team averaged only 138.4 YPG (tied for 67th in the nation), averaging 3.5 YPC as a team. MSU played seven bowl teams this year and excluding its game with Sun Belt Conference representative Florida Atlantic, look at the rushing totals for the other six games. I'll list them separately, for effect. Cal 203 yards (MSU 81), Iowa 151 yards (MSU 91), Northwestern 176 yards (MSU 128), Ohio State 216 yards (MSU 52), Wisconsin 281 yards (MSU 25) and Penn State 138 yards (MSU 35). Doing the match and those six major bowl opponents ran for an average of 189.2 YPG on the ground against the Spartans, while MSU ran for an average of 68.7! As for MSU's passing game, QB Brian Hoyer lost WR Devin Thomas (79 catches / 8 TDs) who left early for the NFL, leaving Javon Ringer (35 catches LY) as the leading returning pass-catcher in '08. Hoyer completed just 50.8 percent of his throws this year, for a very modest 2,235 yards with just nine TDs. His leading receiver was Blair White, who caught 39 balls wit just one TD. In comparison, Georgia is loaded with future first-round NFL draft picks at the skill positions. Matthew Stafford (61.1 percent / 3,209 / 22 TDs and 9 INTs) is high on almost every scout's list of QBs, while no one even remotely questions RB Knowshon Moreno's (over 1,300 yards rushing for the 2nd straight year) NFL resume. In freshman AJ Green (55 catches / 17.3 YPC / 8 TDs) and senior Mohamed Massaquoi (57 catches / 16.0 YPC / 8 TDs), Stafford likely has two future NFLers as targets. The Georgia OL struggled at times this year and as mentioned at the top, Georgia's defense surely underachieved this year, especially in its biggest games. However, let's rewind MSU's season for just a second. The Spartans opened at Cal and lost 38-31. Then, at 6-1 and 3-0 in the Big 10 on Oct 18, MSU lost its "showdown game" at home to Ohio State, 45-7. In its final regular season game on Nov 22 at Penn State (when a win would have given the Spartans a share of the Big 10 title), MSU lost 49-14. Talk about not showing up in the big games? MSU's defense allowed an average of 44.0 PPG in its three losses, while the offense tallied just 25 points in the Big 10 losses to Ohio St and Penn St. By the way, the highly-touted Javon Ringer was held to 109 yards rushing (3.3 YPC) in his games vs Ohio St and Penn St. Is Georgia thrilled to be here? The answer is probably no but any way you 'slice' it, this game is "men vs boys."

MASSIVE MISMATCH on Georgia

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

OUTBACK BOWL

Iowa (8-4, 6-4 ATS) vs. South Carolina (7-5, 6-5 ATS) (at Tampa, Fla.)

Two teams returning to the postseason after a one-year hiatus hook up at Raymond James Stadium, as South Carolina matches up against Iowa for the first time ever.

The Hawkeyes closed the regular season with a flourish, winning three in a row and five of their last six while also going 6-3 ATS down the stretch. Iowa, which was the only team to beat Penn State (24-23 as a 7½-point home underdog), capped things off with an impressive 55-0 rout of Minnesota as a seven-point road chalk, as star RB Shonn Green ran for 144 yards and two TDs. Against the Gophers, Iowa finished with massive advantages in first downs (23-6), total yards (483-134), rushing yards (222-7) and time of possession (37:37-22:23), and they also won the turnover battle, 3-0.

South Carolina followed up a 6-1 run (4-2 ATS) by closing the regular season with a pair of blowout losses at Florida (56-6 as a 21-point underdog) and at Clemson (31-14 as a one-point underdog). Prior to those two contests, the Gamecocks’ defense had led the charge all season, allowing 24 points or less in the team’s first 10 games, including limiting six foes to 17 points or less.

Both squads are making their third appearance in the Outback Bowl. Iowa played Florida both times, winning 37-17 as a 3½-point underdog in 2003, but losing two to the Gators years later 31-24 in a pick-em contest. Meanwhile, South Carolina beat Ohio State in consecutive years in 2000 and 2001.

Under coach Kirk Ferentz, the Hawkeyes are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS in bowl games (2-1 SU and ATS versus SEC foes), but they weren’t favored in any of those contests. In its last bowl appearance, Iowa lost to Texas 26-24 as a nine-point underdog in the Alamo Bowl. South Carolina is 1-1 SU and ATS in the postseason since coach Steve Spurrier arrived, including a 44-36 victory over Houston as a 4½-point favorite in the 2006 Liberty Bowl. Spurrier has a 7-7 SU and ATS bowl record in his coaching career.

Iowa averaged just 16.8 points in its first four games against Division I foes, but put up 34.7 ppg during its season-ending 5-1 run, and for the season the Hawkeyes churned out 374.2 total yards per game (189.7 rushing ypg). Green set a school record with 1,729 rushing yards, which ranked second in the nation, and he averaged 6.2 yards per carry and rushed for 17 TDs. QB Ricky Stanzi had a decent year, completing 58.3 percent of his passes for 1,809 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs, with his best performance coming in the season finale against Minnesota (255 passing yards, 3 TDs, no INTs).

South Carolina’s offense was spotty all season, producing 17 points or fewer five times in 12 games and averaging just 21.7 points and 316.8 total yards per contest (98.3 rushing ypg). QBs Chris Smelley and Stephen Garcia split time under center and neither was spectacular, combining to complete less than 56 percent of their passes for a total of 2,496 yards with 19 TDs and 20 INTs.

Because if its late-season implosions against Florida and Clemson, the Gamecocks’ defense ended up allowing 20.2 ppg, but they ranked 11th in the nation in total defense at 289.1 ypg (128.7 rushing ypg). Meanwhile, Iowa ranked eighth in scoring defense (13.3 ppg), 12th in total defense (289.5 ypg) and 10th in rushing defense (98.3 ypg). The Hawkeyes posted two shutouts, allowed less than 10 points five times and did not give up more than 27 points all season.

In addition to its ongoing 6-3 ATS streak, Iowa is on pointspread runs of 5-2 against winning teams, 4-1 when playing on grass and 12-4 when favored by 3½ to 10 points. However, the Hawkeyes are just 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 as a favorite of any price, 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a victory and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after a non-cover. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on Thursday, but 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine as an underdog (1-3-1 ATS as a pup this season) and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 versus teams with a winning record.

The over is on runs of 5-2 for South Carolina overall, 4-1 for South Carolina against winning teams, 4-1-1 for Iowa overall and 6-1 for Iowa when favored by 3½ to 10 points. However, the under is on streaks of 5-1 for the Gamecocks in non-conference play, 10-1 for Iowa in non-league action and 19-8 for Iowa on grass.

ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA


GATOR BOWL

Clemson (7-5, 4-6 ATS) vs. Nebraska (8-4, 6-6 ATS) (at Jacksonville, Fla.)

Nebraska and Clemson each bring three-game winning streaks and new coaches into Municipal Stadium in the annual Big 12/ACC Gator Bowl clash.

The Huskers, playing under first-year coach Bo Pelini, ripped off three straight wins to start the season, then dropped three in a row before closing on a 5-1 spurt (3-3 ATS), including a three-game season-ending winning streak (2-1 ATS). Nebraska put up 30-plus points in all but two of its games this season, including averaging 47 ppg in its final three victories over Kansas (45-35), Kansas State (56-28) and Colorado (40-31).

Clemson entered this year as the odds-on favorite to win the ACC, but it opened with a 34-10 loss to Alabama as a four-point favorite and lost its first four games against Division I-A competition, leading to the forced resignation of coach Tommy Bowden. Assistant coach Dabo Swinney took over on an interim basis and led the Tigers to a 4-1 SU and ATS finish to earn the head job full time. During its three-game SU and ATS winning streak to close the season, Clemson outscored Duke, Virginia and South Carolina by a combined tally of 75-24.

This is the first meeting between these schools since the 1981 Orange Bowl, which Clemson won 22-15 as a four-point underdog to capture the national championship. While the Huskers are making their first trip to the Gator Bowl, this is the Tigers’ ninth appearance in this game (4-4 SU in the previous eight).

Clemson is 15-15 SU all-time in bowl games, losing to Auburn 23-20 as a 1½-point favorite in last year’s Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta. Nebraska is also dead-even in the postseason at 22-22 SU, and its last bowl appearance also was a three-point loss to Auburn (17-14 as a 1½-point underdog in the Cotton Bowl following the 2006 season).

The Tigers had an up-and-down season offensively, scoring 27 points or more seven times – including in four of the last five games – but they were held to 17 or less five times. Clemson finished averaging 25.5 points and 339.3 total yards per game (120.5 rushing ypg). The running back tandem of James Davis (725 yards, 11 TDs) and CJ Spiller (612 yards, 7 TDs) did the bulk of the damage, as QB Cullen Harper (11 TDs, 12 INTs) had an erratic senior season.

Neraska averaged 36.2 points and 458.2 total yards per outing, including 173.8 rushing yards per game. Senior QB Joe Ganz (69.2 percent completion rate, 3,329 yards, 23 TDs, 10 INTs; 257 rushing yards, 5 TDs) had an outstanding season, though it was lost in the mix compared with other standout Big 12 QBs. Along with Ganz, tailbacks Roy Helu Jr. (804 yards, 7 TDs) and Marlon Lucky (517 yards, 7 TDs) carried the load on the ground.

The Tigers have a huge edge defensively, allowing just 16.6 points and 294.8 total yards per game, which ranked 10th and 16th in the nation, respectively. Only two of the 10 Division I-A opponents Clemson faced – Alabama (34 points) and Florida State (41) – scored more than 21 points. Meanwhile, Nebraska suffered from playing in the explosive Big 12, giving up per-game averages of 29.2 points and 361.5 total yards per game, but only 128 rushing ypg.

Nebraska went 3-1 ATS on the highway this year, but is mired in ATS funks of 3-8 as an underdog, 2-5 in non-conference play, 4-11 against winning teams and 2-11 after a SU win. Meanwhile, although Clemson cashed in four of its last five overall, it also carries a slew of negative ATS trends, including 1-4 in bowl games, 0-4 as a favorite in bowl games, 3-7 as a favorite overall, 2-6 in non-conference play, 2-7 against winning teams, 3-7 on grass and 3-7 on Thursdays.

The Tigers carry nothing but “under” streaks into this contest, including 10-3 overall (7-3 this year), 13-6 in non-league action, 4-0 in bowl games, 9-1 as a favorite, 6-1 on Thursdays and 8-2 on grass. The under is also 4-1 in the Huskers’ last five bowl games and 6-2 in its last eight on grass, though Nebraska did top the total in its last four regular-season games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


CAPITAL ONE BOWL

(19) Michigan State (9-3, 6-5-1 ATS) vs. (16) Georgia (9-3, 3-8 ATS) (at Orlando, Fla.)

Georgia, which entered the season with national championship aspirations, has to settle for its fifth New Year’s Day or beyond bowl game in the last six years when it takes on Michigan State, which is making its second straight postseason appearance at Citrus Bowl Stadium.

The Bulldogs were the preseason No. 1 team in the nation and started out 4-0 (2-1 ATS), but their season got derailed in a 41-30 home loss to Alabama in Week 5 as a 6½-point favorite. After rebounding to win its next three, Georgia closed the regular season by going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS, with the losses coming against Florida (49-10 as a 7½-point underdog) and Georgia Tech (45-42 as a 7½-point home favorite in the finale).

Michigan State enjoyed a breakthrough season under second-year coach Mark Dantonio. After a 38-31 loss at Cal to begin the year, the Spartans won nine of their final 11 games, the only losses coming against Ohio State at home (45-7) and at Penn State in the season finale (49-18). Seven of Michigan State’s nine wins were by double digits.

The only previous meeting between these schools came in the 1989 Gator Bowl, which Georgia won 34-27 in a pick-em situation. The Bulldogs are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS against the Big Ten in bowl games since 1988, and under coach Mark Richt, they’re 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in the postseason, including last year’s 41-10 rout of unbeaten Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl, cashing as a nine-point favorite.

Dantonio led Michigan State to the Champ Sports Bowl at Citrus Bowl Stadium last year, losing 24-21 to Boston College but cashing as a five-point underdog. This is just the second bowl appearance for the Spartans since 2001.

Michigan State averaged 26.2 points and 351.7 total yards per game, including 137.6 rushing ypg. RB Javon Ringer led the NCAA with 370 carries, ranked fourth in rushing yards with 1,590 (4.3 per carry) and had 15 TDs. However, senior QB Brian Hoyer was erratic all season, completing less than 51 percent of his passes for 2,236 yards with eight TDs offset by eight INTs.

Georgia’s offense was paced by the air and ground attack of QB Matthew Stafford (61.1 percent completion rate, 3,209 yards, 22 TDs, eight INTs) and RB Knowshon Moreno (1,338 rushing yards, 5.9 ypc, 16 TDs). The Bulldogs scored 42 or more in three of their last five contests.

The Spartans allowed 22 points and 358.3 yards per game on defense, including a whopping 147.7 rushing ypg (4.2 per carry). Georgia surrendered 25.6 points and 318.3 total ypg, including 130 rushing ypg (3.8 per carry). However, while the Bulldogs gave up 17 points or fewer seven times, they allowed an average of 42.2 ppg in their other five contests, going 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS in those games. In fact, in its final five outings, Georgia yielded 28 points or more four times.

Michigan State is 6-0 ATS in its last six after a non-cover, but it is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games following an outright defeat, 0-5 ATS against teams with a winning record this season and 0-3 ATS as an underdog in 2007. Georgia is on ATS streaks of 7-3 in bowl games, 5-2 in January, 4-1 at neutral sites, 4-1 against non-conference foes and 4-0 on Thursdays. However, the Bulldogs are in pointspread funks of 1-7 overall, 0-6 as a favorite, 1-6 after a SU loss and 1-5 against winning teams.

The over is on runs of 4-1 overall (all on grass), 4-1 for Georgia in bowl games, 7-2 for Georgia at neutral sites and 4-0 for Georgia against winning teams. The over is also 4-2 in Michigan State’s last six overall, 37-16-2 in its last 55 as an underdog and 5-1 in its last six after an outright loss.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


ROSE BOWL

(6) Penn State (11-1, 8-3 ATS) vs. (5) USC (11-1, 6-6 ATS) (at Pasadena, Calif.)

USC, which entered this season with its sights set on the BCS Championship Game, instead makes its fourth consecutive appearance in the Rose Bowl as it battles Penn State, which is making just second-ever trip to Pasadena.

The Trojans appeared on their way to a shot at the national title after opening the season with convincing wins over Virginia (52-7 as a 21-point road favorite) and then-fifth-ranked Ohio State (35-3 as a 10½-point home chalk). However, 10 days after the rout of the Buckeyes, USC’s dream season came unraveled in a stunning 27-21 loss at Oregon State as a 24½-point road favorite, as the Trojans fell behind 21-0 at halftime and couldn’t recover.

After the loss at Oregon State, Pete Carroll’s team bounced back to win its final nine in a row (5-4 ATS), with its top-ranked defense carrying the team, allowing a total of 56 points during the nine-game winning streak (6.2 ppg). Aside from Oregon State, the only other team to come within 14 points of USC was Arizona, which lost 17-10 at home as a 15-point underdog. The Trojans ended the regular season with dominating wins over rivals Notre Dame (38-3 at home) and UCLA (28-7 at the Rose Bowl), but they finished just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 (1-3 ATS last four).

Penn State opened with nine straight victories, the ninth being a hard-fought 13-6 victory at then-No. 10 Ohio State. However, like USC, the Nittany Lions failed to capitalize on the win over the Buckeyes, as they went to Iowa the following week and squandered a nine-point fourth-quarter lead, losing 24-23 as a 7½-point chalk when the Hawkeyes made a last-second field goal.

Despite the stunning loss at Iowa, Penn State was able to secure its second Big Ten Championship as it closed with blowout home wins and spread-covers over Indiana and No. 17 Michigan State by the combined tally of 83-25. With the exception of the victory over Ohio State, Penn State’s other 10 wins were by point margins of 56, 31, 42, 42, 14, 14, 41, 29, 27 and 31.

Since Paterno took over at Penn State, the Nittany Lions and Trojans have hooked up seven times, with Penn State holding a 4-3 SU and ATS edge. The most recent meeting came in the 2000 Kickoff Classic, which USC won 29-5 as a two-point underdog.

USC, which is the only team to have qualified for a BCS game seven straight years, owns a record 23 Rose Bowl wins in 33 previous appearances. That includes last year’s 49-17 rout of Illinois as a 13-point favorite and a 32-18 thumping of Michigan as a 1½-point underdog the previous season. Since Carroll took over as coach, the Trojans are 5-2 SU and ATS in bowl games, including 2-1 SU and ATS in Pasadena, the loss coming to Texas in the 2006 national championship game.

Paterno owns the best bowl record in NCAA history at 23-10-1 (21-9-1 ATS), including last year’s 24-17 Alamo Bowl win over Texas A&M as a five-point favorite. In their only previous trip to the Rose Bowl, the Nittany Lions capped an undefeated 1994 season by routing Oregon 38-20 as a 17-point favorite.

The Trojans ranked in the top 20 in the nation in scoring offense (37.5 ppg, 14th), total offense (452.8 ypg, 13th) and rushing offense (206.6 ypg, 17th). Junior QB Mark Sanchez completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 2,794 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs. His top receiving targets – Damian Williams and Patrick Turner – combined for 93 receptions for 1,374 yards and 18 TDs, while a trio of tailbacks (Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson and C.J. Gable) all rushed for between 604 and 646 yards, accounting for 19 rushing touchdowns.

While USC’s offense was sporadic at times, its defense came to play every week and led the nation in points allowed (7.8 per game), total yards allowed (206) and passing yards allowed (122.

, and it ranked fifth nationally in rushing defense (83.2 ypg). Only two teams (Oregon State and Stanford) scored more than 10 points against the Trojans, with eight opponents being held to a touchdown or less.

Penn State scored 45 points or more seven times and finished averaging 40.2 points, 452.2 total yards and 211.7 rushing yards per game, figures that ranked 11th, 14th and 13th nationally. Dual-threat QB Daryll Clark connected on 60 percent of his passes for 2,319 yards with 17 TDs and just four INTs, while adding 265 rushing yards and nine scores on the ground. Along with Clark, RB Evan Royster (1,202 yards, 6.5 ypc, 12 TDs) paced the ground attack, while Deon Butler (43 catches, 713 yards, 7 TDs) was the leading receiver.

Though not quite as prolific as USC’s defense, Penn State’s stop unit was very stout, ranking third in scoring defense (12.4 ppg), fifth in total defense (264 ypg), ninth in rushing defense (96 ypg) and 11th in passing defense (168 ypg). Only two opponents – Illinois (24) and Iowa (24) – scored more than 17 points against the Nittany Lions, who allowed 10 points or less six times.

USC, which was a double-digit favorite in every game this season, is just 11-17-1 ATS in its last 29 laying big chalk. Also, the Trojans went 1-4 ATS this year as a road favorite and they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on grass. However, they’re on positive ATS streaks of 8-0 against the Big Ten, 22-6 in non-conference action, 6-1 in January, 5-1 in bowl games, 4-1 as a bowl chalk and 13-5 against teams with a winning record.

Penn State has been a double-digit pup just once since 2004, losing 28-6 at Ohio State as a 17-point underdog in 2006, and the Lions have failed to cash in five of their last six as a ‘dog of any price. Otherwise, though, Penn State is on ATS runs of 8-3-1 overall, 5-0 in non-Big Ten play and 5-1 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points.

The Nittany Lions are on under stretches of 5-1 in boll games and 4-1 as an underdog, but the over is 4-1 in their last five games on grass. Meanwhile, USC is on under steaks of 22-8-1 overall, 21-7-1 as a favorite, 5-2 against the Big Ten, 22-5-1 on grass and 5-0 versus winning teams, but the over is 4-0 in the Trojans’ last four bowl games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


ORANGE BOWL

(21) Virginia Tech (9-4, 5-7 ATS) vs. (12) Cincinnati (10-2, 6-6 ATS) (at Miami, Fla.)

Cincinnati, which set a school record for victories and captured its first Big East conference title, appears its first BCS Bowl when it takes on ACC champion Virginia Tech in the 75th anniversary of the Orange Bowl at Dolphin Stadium.

The Bearcats ended the regular-season on a five-game winning streak (4-2 ATS), with four of those wins coming against Big East foes South Florida, West Virginia, Louisville and Syracuse. After wrapping up the conference crown, Cincinnati trekked to Hawaii for a non-conference game and staged a big fourth-quarter rally to pull out a 29-24 victory as a 7½-point road favorite. The Bearcats scored between 24 and 30 points during the six-game run.

The Hokies started off with a surprising 27-22 loss to East Carolina as a nine-point road favorite, but rebounded to win their next five in a row (2-2 ATS in lined actin). After a 1-3 mini-slump in the middle of the year, Va-Tech closed on a three-game winning streak, including a 30-12 rout of Boston College as a one-point favorite in the ACC Championship game Dec. 6. In capturing its second straight league title, Frank Beamer’s offense mustered just 234 yards against B.C. and committed three turnovers, but the defense allowed only 308 total yards (45 rushing) and forced four turnovers.

These teams last met in 2006, with the Hokies rolling to a 29-13 home victory, but failing to cash as a hefty 27½-point favorite. The all-time series is tied 4-4, with the Bearcats going 5-2 ATS in lined games.

Cincinnati, which is in its second season under coach Brian Kelly, won its bowl games the last two years, beating Southern Miss 31-21 in last year’s PapaJohn’s Bowl and knocking off Western Michigan in the 2006 International Bowl, but the Bearcats failed to cover as a favorite in both contests. Cincy is 5-4 all-time in bowls (2-5 ATS).

The Hokies are riding a 16-year bowl streak, and this is their fifth BCS appearance, including their second consecutive trip to the Orange Bowl. However, Virginia Tech is just 6-9 SU and ATS in bowl games under Beamer, including 0-4 SU and ATS in BCS games and 0-2 SU and ATS in the Orange Bowl. Last year, the Hokies took on Kansas at Dolphin Stadium and fell 24-21 as a three-point favorite. That result made the underdog 5-1 ATS in Va-Tech’s last six bowl contests

Virginia Tech had one of the weakest offenses in the country, averaging only 22.2 points and 296.5 total yards per game, including 128.2 passing ypg, and the Hokies scored 20 or less six times. Senior Sean Glennon (a drop-back passer) and sophomore Tyrod Taylor (a mobile QB) split time under center, combining to pass for 1,539 yards with just five TD passes and 11 INTs. Taylor was the team’s second leading rusher (691 yards, six TDs), while Darren Evans (1,112 yards, 10 TDs) carried most of the load on the ground.

The Hokies compensated for a sluggish offense with a rock-solid stop unit that ranked 13th in scoring defense (17.5 ppg), seventh in total defense (277.2 ypg), 17th in rushing defense (107 ypg) and 13th in passing defense (170.2 ypg). Virginia Tech held eight opponents – including each of the last five – to 17 points or less.

Cincinnati, which put up 27.3 points and 375.4 yards per game (121.3 rushing ypg), prevailed in the Big East despite dealing with numerous quarterback injuries. Tony Pike got the majority of snaps and completed 63 percent of his tosses for 2,169 yards with 18 TDs and 7 INTs. Jacob Ramsey (630 yards, 2 TDs) and John Goebel (581 yards, 7 TDs) paced the ground attack, helping to open things up for top WR targets Marshwan Gilyard (74 catches, 1,118 yards, 10 TDs) and Dominick Goodman (78 catches, 977 yards, 7 TDs).

Defensively, Cincinnati ranked in the top 30 nationally in scoring defense (20.2 ppg, 28th), total defense (316 ypg, 26th) and rushing defense (103.8 ypg, 12th). The only two foes to score more than 23 points against the Bearcats were Oklahoma (52) and Connecticut (40).

Virginia Tech is on ATS runs of 23-9 away from home, 10-3 as a road underdog since 2005, 14-4 on Thursdays, 23-11 following a spread-cover and 5-2 against winning teams. However, the Hokies have failed to cash in eight of their last nine non-ACC contests.

The Bearcats are 9-3-1 ATS against ranked teams over the last three seasons, including 3-1 SU and ATS this year. They’re also 5-1 ATS in their last six games on Thursday, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 on grass and 4-1 in their last five versus winning teams. However, Cincinnati has failed to cash in four straight games as a favorite.

The under is on runs of 4-1 for Virginia Tech overall, 4-1 for Virginia Tech in January, 4-1 for Virginia Tech on grass, 7-3 for Virginia Tech after a SU win, 5-1 for Cincy in bowl games and 7-0 for Cincy when playing on Thursday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MIGHTY QUINN

Mighty missed with Air Force and over; split with Oregon State and over; hit with Vanderblit and under; hit with Kansas and over; hit with LSU and under.

Today it's USC (South Carolina), USC (Southern California) and the Blackhawks. The final deficit for 2008 is 250 sirignanos.

 

[Leatherman]

Anyone have Kelso's 200 unit college play for today ??

2008 PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL CLUB
Thursday, January 01, 2009
Bowl Game of the Year
200 Units
Georgia (-8) over Michigan State
1:00 PM -- Capital One Bowl - Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium, Or
Georgia by 17-21

Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.

• All times Eastern
• Home team in CAPS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gina

Cincinnati -2
USC -10
Iowa -3½
Georgia -7½
Nebraska +2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Johnny Guild

Thursday, January 1st
(6) Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) vs. (5) U-S-C Trojans (11-1)
Rose Bowl - Pasadena, California
Home Record: U-S-C 6-0; Penn State 7-0
Road Record: U-S-C 5-1; Penn State 4-1
Series Record: Tied (4-4)
Bowl Records: U-S-C (30-16 - 23-9 in Rose Bowl) - Penn State (26-12-2 -1-1 in Rose Bowl)
Penn State explosive offense will face possibly the best defensive team in the country. The Nittany Lions will be in for a shock, they haven’t confronting a physically powerful defense resembling USC. The Trojans are 8-0 both straight-up and against the spread in the last eight meetings against Big Ten opponents. Look for the Nittany Lions to be an additional Big 10 fatality. Take USC to win by double digits.

Iowa Hawkeyes -4
Nebraska Cornhuskers +2
Michigan State Spartans +8.5
USC Trojans -9.5
Virginia Tech Hokies +2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pure Lock

CFB play Thursday
VIRGINIA TECH VS CINCINNATI 8:15 PM EST

PLAY ON: CINCINNATI (-) PTS

* PURE LOCK IS PASSING ON THEIR PREMIUM PLAYS ON THURSDAY

 

[BearBryant]

Drew Gordon

300,000♦ ROSE BOWL "NO-BRAINER"

USC

paid and confirmed

 

[intheblack]

happy new year guys!!!!

wayne root:
chairman-usc
millionaire-neb
nolimit-mich st
billion goy-cinnci

big al:
ten dimes-s. carolina
offshore steam-vt/cinnci o 42
computer boy-psu/usc u 45