bettorsworld
3* Iowa -3.5 over South Carolina - Sure you'll hear how the Big 10 was down this year and how they are playing an SEC team and how South Carolina had a big team meeting recently to get hyped up for the bowl game, but sometimes you just have to look at a game and take the team that the numbers say is the better of the two. Oh, and while the Big 10 may be down, the SEC wasn't exactly "up" this year.
South Carolina was a team that turned the ball over way too often this year. They finished the year at 101 out of 119 on the turnover margin chart which places them among the worst in the entire nation at -9 while Iowa was in the top 30 at +6. Honestly folks, that stat alone is enough to warrant a play on a Bowl game but there's more. Iowa's yards per point numbers were fantastic. Rounding off, they finished the year with a 12 on offense and a 22 on defense for a +10 margin while South Carolina struggled offensively with a 14.5 and was below average defensively with a 14. Also note that South Carolina had a defensive number in road games of 11 which is atrocious. Iowa also managed to knock off Penn State this year while South Carolina failed against every big time opponent they faced.
3* Penn State +10 over USC - 10 was widely available until it moved across the board. If the 10 doesn't appear again, go ahead and buy it. We still like the game at + 9 however. For that matter, anyone who likes Penn State here should like them to win it straight up making the points a bonus, which we think will be the case. We're well aware of the Big 10 shortcomings and the "weak" schedule arguments, and hey, we've seen the Big 10 get blown out in Rose Bowls and National Title games recently just like everybody else.
But the feeling here is that the USC schedule, as impressive as the results were, has been equally "weak" this year. Sure, their signature win was a blowout over Big 10 representative Ohio State but you can also point to their loss to Oregon State, who Penn State beat 45-14 a couple of weeks prior. Both teams sit towards the top of the turnover standings as well as their yards per points differential.
The feeling here is that Penn State will have some success where it counts. Up front on both sides of the ball. They'll be able to put pressure on USC QB Mark Sanchez and they'll be able get the ball moving on the ground with that offensive line leading the way. USC has the greater potential to blow open a game with big plays which is always a concern, but we think Paterno (23-10 in Bowl Games) and company find a way to make a game of this and quite possibly pull an upset. This is a matchup between two very well coached teams with talent on both sides of the ball. We'd prefer +10 but still a play at +9.
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3* Iowa -3.5 over South Carolina - Sure you'll hear how the Big 10 was down this year and how they are playing an SEC team and how South Carolina had a big team meeting recently to get hyped up for the bowl game, but sometimes you just have to look at a game and take the team that the numbers say is the better of the two. Oh, and while the Big 10 may be down, the SEC wasn't exactly "up" this year.
South Carolina was a team that turned the ball over way too often this year. They finished the year at 101 out of 119 on the turnover margin chart which places them among the worst in the entire nation at -9 while Iowa was in the top 30 at +6. Honestly folks, that stat alone is enough to warrant a play on a Bowl game but there's more. Iowa's yards per point numbers were fantastic. Rounding off, they finished the year with a 12 on offense and a 22 on defense for a +10 margin while South Carolina struggled offensively with a 14.5 and was below average defensively with a 14. Also note that South Carolina had a defensive number in road games of 11 which is atrocious. Iowa also managed to knock off Penn State this year while South Carolina failed against every big time opponent they faced.
3* Penn State +10 over USC - 10 was widely available until it moved across the board. If the 10 doesn't appear again, go ahead and buy it. We still like the game at + 9 however. For that matter, anyone who likes Penn State here should like them to win it straight up making the points a bonus, which we think will be the case. We're well aware of the Big 10 shortcomings and the "weak" schedule arguments, and hey, we've seen the Big 10 get blown out in Rose Bowls and National Title games recently just like everybody else.
But the feeling here is that the USC schedule, as impressive as the results were, has been equally "weak" this year. Sure, their signature win was a blowout over Big 10 representative Ohio State but you can also point to their loss to Oregon State, who Penn State beat 45-14 a couple of weeks prior. Both teams sit towards the top of the turnover standings as well as their yards per points differential.
The feeling here is that Penn State will have some success where it counts. Up front on both sides of the ball. They'll be able to put pressure on USC QB Mark Sanchez and they'll be able get the ball moving on the ground with that offensive line leading the way. USC has the greater potential to blow open a game with big plays which is always a concern, but we think Paterno (23-10 in Bowl Games) and company find a way to make a game of this and quite possibly pull an upset. This is a matchup between two very well coached teams with talent on both sides of the ball. We'd prefer +10 but still a play at +9.
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NCAA Sports MarketWatch Bowl Games
Michigan State vs Georgia (1/1 1P)
Michigan State doesn’t want the bad taste from their regular season finale loss to Penn State to linger in their mouth all off-season. The Spartans offensive star feels like it is his role to make that happen. Tailback Javon Ringer rushed for 1,590 yards on the season, but only 42 yards against the Nittany Lions with the Big Ten title on the line. The MSU passing attack has had problems keeping defenses honest this season, as quarterback Brian Hoyer barely completed 50% of his passes on the season. The Spartans will get their best wideout Mark Dell back after the sophomore missed time at the end of the season. Michigan State’s defense has had problems stopping elite running backs this season, and that could be a problem in the Capital One Bowl as they face Georgia’s Knowshown Moreno.
When the season kicked off, Georgia was hoping to appear in Florida for a January bowl game. The Capital One Bowl wasn’t what they had in mind when they were ranked No. 1 in the pre-season. They are also coming off a disappointing 45-42 loss to in-state rival Georgia Tech, in which they allowed 409 rushing yards. The Bulldogs defense had been solid against the run, as they finished the season allowing an average of 129.9 yards per game including the effort against the Yellow Jackets. The offense features one of the most talented groups of position players in the country in quarterback Matthew Stafford, tailback Knowshown Moreno, and wide receiver A.J. Green. The Bulldogs are averaging 32.1 points per game.
The Bulldogs opened as 5.5-point favorites at 5Dimes and many other books tracked by Sports Insights. They are receiving huge backing with 81% of the public spread bets. That huge backing mage the line jump to Georgia -8 a few days later. Since then the line has dipped back down to Georgia -7.5 at 5Dimes. It also saw this later dip and many other books. That triggered a few Smart Money plays on the Spartans, including at BetOnline (37-23, +10.22 units) and 5Dimes (85-69, +7.71 units). We're following the Smart Money and looking for some favorable underdog lines like the Michigan State +8.5
Michigan State +8.5
Penn State vs Southern Cal (1/1 5P)
Penn State comes into the Rose Bowl as Big Ten Champions in what many people consider a down year for the conference. That doesn’t mean Penn State isn’t one of the top teams in the country, as they dominate on both sides of the ball. The rushing attack is led by sophomore tailback Evan Royster, who rushed for over 1,200 yards on the season. Quarterback Daryll Clark completed over 60% of his passes while throwing to a talented trio of senior wide receivers. Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood combined to make 121 receptions. The Nittany Lions defense is also strong, allowing only 12.4 points per game, while giving up an average of 263.9 yards.
As good as Penn State is, Southern Cal is slightly better on the stat sheet. The Trojans rank first nationally in four defensive categories, including scoring defense (7.8 points per game) and total defense (206.1 yards per game). The Trojans utilize a traditional pro-style offense led by quarterback Mark Sanchez, who threw for 30 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. USC uses a trio of running backs to complement Sanchez, highlighted by sophomore Joe McKnight. The Trojans will be without versatile fullback Stanley Havili, and offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian left before The Rose Bowl to take the head coach position at the University of Washington.
Southern Cal opened as double-digit favorites at most books tracked by Sports Insights, including USC -10.5 at Pinnacle. The Trojans are receiving almost two-thirds of the public spread bets at 64%. Despite this backing, the line has moved in the other direction to USC -8 at Pinnacle. There is still some variation in the line across the marketplace, ranging from an 8-point spread to a 10-point spread. Leading up to the game a Steam Move was triggered at Bet Jamaica (125-100, +13.3 units) on the Nittany Lions. We think these two teams are pretty evenly matched, so we think getting either team with 10 points is the way to go. We'll take Joe Pa and Penn State with the points.
Penn State +10
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Michigan State vs Georgia (1/1 1P)
Michigan State doesn’t want the bad taste from their regular season finale loss to Penn State to linger in their mouth all off-season. The Spartans offensive star feels like it is his role to make that happen. Tailback Javon Ringer rushed for 1,590 yards on the season, but only 42 yards against the Nittany Lions with the Big Ten title on the line. The MSU passing attack has had problems keeping defenses honest this season, as quarterback Brian Hoyer barely completed 50% of his passes on the season. The Spartans will get their best wideout Mark Dell back after the sophomore missed time at the end of the season. Michigan State’s defense has had problems stopping elite running backs this season, and that could be a problem in the Capital One Bowl as they face Georgia’s Knowshown Moreno.
When the season kicked off, Georgia was hoping to appear in Florida for a January bowl game. The Capital One Bowl wasn’t what they had in mind when they were ranked No. 1 in the pre-season. They are also coming off a disappointing 45-42 loss to in-state rival Georgia Tech, in which they allowed 409 rushing yards. The Bulldogs defense had been solid against the run, as they finished the season allowing an average of 129.9 yards per game including the effort against the Yellow Jackets. The offense features one of the most talented groups of position players in the country in quarterback Matthew Stafford, tailback Knowshown Moreno, and wide receiver A.J. Green. The Bulldogs are averaging 32.1 points per game.
The Bulldogs opened as 5.5-point favorites at 5Dimes and many other books tracked by Sports Insights. They are receiving huge backing with 81% of the public spread bets. That huge backing mage the line jump to Georgia -8 a few days later. Since then the line has dipped back down to Georgia -7.5 at 5Dimes. It also saw this later dip and many other books. That triggered a few Smart Money plays on the Spartans, including at BetOnline (37-23, +10.22 units) and 5Dimes (85-69, +7.71 units). We're following the Smart Money and looking for some favorable underdog lines like the Michigan State +8.5
Michigan State +8.5
Penn State vs Southern Cal (1/1 5P)
Penn State comes into the Rose Bowl as Big Ten Champions in what many people consider a down year for the conference. That doesn’t mean Penn State isn’t one of the top teams in the country, as they dominate on both sides of the ball. The rushing attack is led by sophomore tailback Evan Royster, who rushed for over 1,200 yards on the season. Quarterback Daryll Clark completed over 60% of his passes while throwing to a talented trio of senior wide receivers. Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood combined to make 121 receptions. The Nittany Lions defense is also strong, allowing only 12.4 points per game, while giving up an average of 263.9 yards.
As good as Penn State is, Southern Cal is slightly better on the stat sheet. The Trojans rank first nationally in four defensive categories, including scoring defense (7.8 points per game) and total defense (206.1 yards per game). The Trojans utilize a traditional pro-style offense led by quarterback Mark Sanchez, who threw for 30 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. USC uses a trio of running backs to complement Sanchez, highlighted by sophomore Joe McKnight. The Trojans will be without versatile fullback Stanley Havili, and offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian left before The Rose Bowl to take the head coach position at the University of Washington.
Southern Cal opened as double-digit favorites at most books tracked by Sports Insights, including USC -10.5 at Pinnacle. The Trojans are receiving almost two-thirds of the public spread bets at 64%. Despite this backing, the line has moved in the other direction to USC -8 at Pinnacle. There is still some variation in the line across the marketplace, ranging from an 8-point spread to a 10-point spread. Leading up to the game a Steam Move was triggered at Bet Jamaica (125-100, +13.3 units) on the Nittany Lions. We think these two teams are pretty evenly matched, so we think getting either team with 10 points is the way to go. We'll take Joe Pa and Penn State with the points.
Penn State +10
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Aces thread shows a play on USC ov 45, so either the "side" is something added or an error (?)
Anyone know?
"recap
USC OVER 45.5............................$200.00
TCU OVER 45.5.............................$200.00.......lost
BC UNDER 41.5.............................$500.00......Winner
NC st UNDER 53.5........................$600.00........WINNER
$1000.00 #201 Navy (+3) over Wake Forest ..................lost
$900.00 #205 Memphis (+11.5) over South Florida ........lost
$800.00 #207 BYU (+3) over Arizona ...........................lost
$500.00 #213 Notre Dame (-1) over Hawaii ...................winner
$1000.00 #216 Central Michigan (-7) over Florida Atl ......lost
WIS+6..........................$500.......................................LOST
MARYLAND +2.5..............$500......................................winner
OREGON +2.5..................$800 .....................................winner
5-6 record -$1700
adding
GT-4...............................$700.00
Ethan Law | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
250 Georgia -8.0 (-110) BetUS vs 249 Michigan St.
Analysis: MICHIGAN ST (9-3) at GEORGIA (9-3)
Verdict: Michigan State 14, Georgia 38
PLAY 2* UNITS (3%) ON GEORGIA -8
Thu, 01/01/09 - 5:00 PMEthan Law | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
251 Penn St. -10.0 (-110) Bodog vs 252 Southern Cal
Analysis: PENN ST (11-1) at USC (11-1)
Verdict: Penn State 21, USC 24
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON PENN STATE +9
OPINION SELECTION ON:
VIRGINIA TECH (9-4) at CINCINNATI (11-2)
Verdict: Virginia Tech 28, Cincinnati 20
PLAY 1/2* UNIT (1%) ON VIRGINIA TECH +2
250 Georgia -8.0 (-110) BetUS vs 249 Michigan St.
Analysis: MICHIGAN ST (9-3) at GEORGIA (9-3)
Verdict: Michigan State 14, Georgia 38
PLAY 2* UNITS (3%) ON GEORGIA -8
Thu, 01/01/09 - 5:00 PMEthan Law | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
251 Penn St. -10.0 (-110) Bodog vs 252 Southern Cal
Analysis: PENN ST (11-1) at USC (11-1)
Verdict: Penn State 21, USC 24
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON PENN STATE +9
OPINION SELECTION ON:
VIRGINIA TECH (9-4) at CINCINNATI (11-2)
Verdict: Virginia Tech 28, Cincinnati 20
PLAY 1/2* UNIT (1%) ON VIRGINIA TECH +2
Bruce Feldman = 15-7
Senior writer with ESPN The Magazine
Thursday, Jan. 1
Iowa 27, South Carolina 13: Shonn Greene has had a phenomenal season and now he faces a solid run defense (36th in the country), but Carolina floundered down the stretch, surrendering 87 points in the final two games of the season. I like Iowa to roll through Carolina, which is one of the worst teams in the country along the O-line and too inconsistent at quarterback.
Georgia 31, Michigan State 21: The Dawgs' defense has been atrocious over the final five games of the season, having yielded almost 37 ppg and over 226 rushing yards and that doesn't bode well facing a horse like MSU's Javon Ringer, who should be sharp after more than a month off. Still, I think UGA is the more balanced team and will have too much firepower for State, but it'll be interesting to see how Mark Dantonio tries to handle Matt Stafford & Co.
Nebraska 35, Clemson 27: Both teams come in here having won three straight. Nebraska has an underrated offense, but the Cornhuskers can get sloppy with the ball (105th in turnover margin). I think they win this game because they will be more physical and the Clemson O-line is still very shaky (94th in sacks allowed).
USC 24, Penn State 7: The Trojans have dominated Big Ten teams of late and while Penn State has a solid O-line and some experienced receivers, Joe Paterno's team has not seen anything like the talent it'll face in the USC D. The Nittany Lions' front seven could give the young USC O-line some trouble and losing reliable FB Stanley Havili (academics) hurts the Trojans, but unless they turn it over more than four times, I think they cruise here.
Cincinnati 13, Virginia Tech 10: It won't help the Bearcats' chances if star CB Mike Mickens isn't 100 percent (knee). He's outstanding, but UC does still have a terrific D-line that will keep the heat on a shaky Tech offense. I was tempted to pick Tech, but the Hokies have had so many problems in the red zone, I'm going with a hunch and taking Cincy.
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Senior writer with ESPN The Magazine
Thursday, Jan. 1
Iowa 27, South Carolina 13: Shonn Greene has had a phenomenal season and now he faces a solid run defense (36th in the country), but Carolina floundered down the stretch, surrendering 87 points in the final two games of the season. I like Iowa to roll through Carolina, which is one of the worst teams in the country along the O-line and too inconsistent at quarterback.
Georgia 31, Michigan State 21: The Dawgs' defense has been atrocious over the final five games of the season, having yielded almost 37 ppg and over 226 rushing yards and that doesn't bode well facing a horse like MSU's Javon Ringer, who should be sharp after more than a month off. Still, I think UGA is the more balanced team and will have too much firepower for State, but it'll be interesting to see how Mark Dantonio tries to handle Matt Stafford & Co.
Nebraska 35, Clemson 27: Both teams come in here having won three straight. Nebraska has an underrated offense, but the Cornhuskers can get sloppy with the ball (105th in turnover margin). I think they win this game because they will be more physical and the Clemson O-line is still very shaky (94th in sacks allowed).
USC 24, Penn State 7: The Trojans have dominated Big Ten teams of late and while Penn State has a solid O-line and some experienced receivers, Joe Paterno's team has not seen anything like the talent it'll face in the USC D. The Nittany Lions' front seven could give the young USC O-line some trouble and losing reliable FB Stanley Havili (academics) hurts the Trojans, but unless they turn it over more than four times, I think they cruise here.
Cincinnati 13, Virginia Tech 10: It won't help the Bearcats' chances if star CB Mike Mickens isn't 100 percent (knee). He's outstanding, but UC does still have a terrific D-line that will keep the heat on a shaky Tech offense. I was tempted to pick Tech, but the Hokies have had so many problems in the red zone, I'm going with a hunch and taking Cincy.
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Logical Approach = 22-16 ( 12-7 SIDES AND 10-9 TOTALS )
Outback Bowl - Tampa, FL - Thursday, January 1, 2009
Iowa had a strong start to the season (3-0) and a strong finish (5-1) surrounding a 3 game mis season losing streak. South Carolina's mid season 4 game win streak was preceded by a 1-2 start and a 2-3 finish. In finishing 5-1 Iowa knocked off 3 Bowl teams (all from their Big 10 conference) including that 24-23 upset win over then 9-0 Penn State. All 4 of their losses were by 5 points or less and they did not have to face this season's other Big 10 power, Ohio State. Carolina's most notable win was their 34-0 opening game win over North Carolina State in which they broke open the game in the second half and ended up holding the Wolfpack to just 138 total yards of offense. Their other win of note was a mid season road win at Ole Miss, 31-24. The teams had almost even defensive stats with Iowa better against the rush and Carolina better against the pass. Iowa does show up statistically better in turnovers as Carolina averaged losing 2.8 per game (# 117) while Iowa averaged recovering 2.2 per game (# 18). Iowa arguably played a weaker schedule although the SEC overall was not as strong this season as in the past few seasons. Still, Iowa had a net scoring differential of plus 17 points per game while Carolina was plus just 1.5. The teams combined to allow an average of just 33.4 points per game and neither offense was explosive, suggestive of a low scoring game here, as the Total suggests. Iowa held 5 foes to under 10 points and no team scored more than 27 against the Hawkeyes. Although Carolina gave up 56 points to Florida and 31 to Clemson in its final two games, no other team scored more than 24 against the Gamecocks. Each team held 7 foes to under 300 yards of total offense. South Carolina misses a Bowl last season but was 1-1 the prior 2 seasons, both time as favorites, in what were their first Bowl appearances in 4 seasons. Iowa also missed a Bowl last season after 6 straight Bowl trips in which they were 3-3 3-1 S/U and 4-2 ATS - although they were underdogs in all 6 Bowls. Again, the pedigree of SEC vs Big 10 counts for something and although Iowa had the stronger finish to the season South Carolina faced a better class of foe. Both teams are well coached but getting the faster SEC team as an underdog is enough to tilt the scales. South Carolina upsets Iowa, 20-17, making
SOUTH CAROLINA a 3 Star Selection
UNDER a 4 Star Selection .
Gator Bowl - Jacksonville, FL - Thursday, January 1, 2009
To 'old timers' this matchup will evoke memories of 1981 when Clemson defeated Nebraska in the Orange Bowl to win the National Title and cap a 12-0 season. Now, a generation later, much less is at stake although both get to play on New Year's Day albeit in a lesser Bowl. Whereas Nebraska was the more dominant program when these teams met back then, today Clemson has had the more recent success and the Tigers are in their fourth straight Bowl and ninth in 10 years. Nebraska seemingly hit bottom last season, missing a Bowl for the second time in 4 seasons after having gone to a Bowl for 35 straight seasons between 1969 and 2003. Nebraska made a coaching change after last season, bringing in defensive minded Bo Pelini. After starting 3-0 the 'Huskers lost 3 straight before finishing on a 5-1 run that included only one win over a Bowl bound team (Kansas). Overall Nebraska was 2-4 against fellow Bowler. Clemson made a mid season coaching change after failing to live up to pre season expectations that had Clemson a BCS Title contender. But the Tigers lost badly to Alabama to start the season only to win 3 straight before losing 3 in a row to stand 3-4. Clemson then won 4 of 5 to close the season and was 3-5 against Bowl bound teams. Nebraska was decidedly the better team on offense while Clemson holds a solid edge in the defensive stats although the teams were almost even defending the run. Nebraska had much worse pass defense stats but that would figure in the highly pass effective Big 12. But even when adjusting for the quality of offenses faced Clemson's pass defense was extraordinary, allowing just 5.1 yards per pass attempt (second only to USC) and 9.1 yards per attempt (again, second only to USC). That suggests Nebraska will have to show they can run the ball in order to set up their more potent pass attack. Nebraska posted impressive offensive stats down the stretch but did so against much weaker defenses than they will encounter here. The expectation is that Clemson's defense - the best unit on the field - will succeed in dictating game flow. Clemson gets the win 27-21, making
CLEMSON a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .
Capital One Bowl - Orlando, FL - Thursday, January 1, 2009
By many accounts Georgia was the top team in the nation beginning this season as they returned a lot of strength from the team that closed the 2007 season very impressively. But after starting 4-0 the Bulldogs hosted also unbeaten Alabama and were thrashed 41-30 in a game Georgia trailed 31-0 at the half. Hopes of a BCS title were dashed for good a month later when they were routed by Florida 49-10. Georgia's third and final loss of the season came in the finale when they let a halftime lead slip away en route to a 45-42 loss to Georgia Tech. Georgia's only win of note was a 52-38 road win at LSU in mid season. Overall Georgia won 5 of 8 teams headed to Bowls. Michigan State also lost just 3 games but two of the losses were blowout losses to powers Ohio State (45-7) and Penn State (49-18). The other loss was a season opening loss at Bowl bound Cal. MSU also had 5 wins against other Bowl teams. Georgia has the better overall stats and plays in the much tougher SEC. Their primary and secondary stats are better virtually across the board and they are the more talented team. They are 8-2 in Bowls over the past decade including 4-3 ATS when favored. Michigan State is 4-3 ATS in Bowls over the past decade, winning twice, and were underdogs all 4 times. This may be an attractive matchup based on their identical 9-3 records but both teams have flaws, especially when stepping up in class. Here, MSU is stepping up in class while Georgia's motivation is questioned given their expectation back in August. In the final analysis Georgia's slight edge at RB and major edge at QB, combined with the better overall defense and team speed, makes them the call. Georgia wins 34-24, making
GEORGIA a 2 Star Selection
OVER a 2 Star Selection .
Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA - Thursday, January 1, 2009
There's much to like about both of these perennial powers who take identical 11-1 records into the Granddaddy of all Bowl games. USC's lone loss came at Oregon State27-21, ironically the same team that was two weeks earlier crushed at Penn State 45-14. Penn State's lone loss was a late 24-23 loss at Iowa. Both teams also played and defeated Ohio State. USC routed the Buckeyes early in the season 35-3 at home, outgaining OSU 348-207. Penn State won at Ohio State 13-6, but were slightly outgained 287 to 281. The perception is that Penn State had the far better offense than USC but the teams were actually separated by just 1 yard in total offense per game although Penn State did average 3 more points on the scoreboard. USC does have the better defensive stats, allowing 58 ypg and nearly 5 points per game less than the Nittany Lions. Both defenses excelled against the rush. USC held 10 of 12 foes to 10 points or less and tossed 3 shutouts. Penn State held 8 of 12 foes to 14 points or less, with 5 of the 8 limited to single digits. USC played the more demanding non-conference schedule with wins over Virginia, Ohio State and Notre Dame while Penn State defeated Coastal Carolina, Temple, Syracuse in addition to the aforementioned Oregon State. Both teams have well balanced offenses with almost identical rushing and passing per game averages. On a per play basis, defensively, USC has significant edges, allowing 0.3 yards less per rush, (2.6 vs 2.9), 1.2 yards less per pass attempt (4.3 vs 5.5) and nearly 2 yards less per pass completion (8.3 vs 10.2). Those defensive edges combined with the fact that after long layoffs its generally tougher for offenses to find their rhythms rather than defenses suggest the Penn State should find it tough to gain chunks of yardage against the Trojans. This is virtually a home game for USC and they are making a fourth straight appearance in the Rose Bowl, winning each of the past 2 years. They also have a stellar record under coach Pete Carroll against Big 10 foes. While taking the generous points with Penn State looks appealing USC's team speed, better defense and home site provided too many compelling reasons for playing the favorite. While Penn State should keep the game close for awhile, USC's superior talent ultimately enables the Trojans to pull away. USC wins 28-13, making
USC a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .
Orange Bowl - Miami, FL - Thursday, January 1, 2009
The champions of the two weakest BCS conferences do battle in the Orange Bowl and Virginia Tech is back for a second straight year, losing last season 24-21 to Kansas, a controversial pick over Big 12 rival Missouri which had solidly defeated the Jayhawks in the regular season finale. Tech has not fared well in Bowls of late, losing in 4 of the past 5 seasons. This appearance, however, makes it 16 straight seasons of Bowling for Tech under coach Frank Beamer. Cincinnati is in a Bowl for a third straight season (and seventh in 9 seasons). Cincy has won their last 3 Bowl games. The Bearcats also won their final 6 games this season. Tech ended the season with 3 straight wins (including the ACC Title game) after a mid to late season swoon that saw them lose 3 of 4. Cincy had a decided edge on offense although that edge was largely in the passing game where they averaged 254 ypg, nearly double that of VT. Tech had the stronger running game, rushing for 168 ypg to just 121 for Cincy. Virginia Tech did have a solid edge on defense, allowing just 277 ypg (# 7) but Cincy's defense was not that far behind (316 ypg, # 26). Both teams allowed just over 100 ypg on the ground. In non conference play both teams visited Big 12 venues with Tech winning 35-20 at Nebraska while Cincy was blown out at Oklahoma, 52-26, allowing almost 600 yards to the Sooners. Both teams will be motivated. Tech wants redemption from last season's close loss here while Cincy seeks to continue their late season momentum by winning their first ever BCS game. Tech has always been noted for their defense and special teams but Cincy has also performed well in both areas. Tech arguably played the more difficult overall schedule facing 9 teams that are in Bowl games (Cincy faced 6) but there's really not much in the way of significant edges to be overly enthused about either side in this game. It appears very evenly matched. Cincinnati seems the more talented team and has gotten more from the QB position. For that reason the preference is to go with the short chalk and call for a Bearcat win. But it should be close. Cincinnati wins 24-20, making
CINCINNATI a 1 Star Selection
OVER a 1 Star Selection
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Outback Bowl - Tampa, FL - Thursday, January 1, 2009
Iowa had a strong start to the season (3-0) and a strong finish (5-1) surrounding a 3 game mis season losing streak. South Carolina's mid season 4 game win streak was preceded by a 1-2 start and a 2-3 finish. In finishing 5-1 Iowa knocked off 3 Bowl teams (all from their Big 10 conference) including that 24-23 upset win over then 9-0 Penn State. All 4 of their losses were by 5 points or less and they did not have to face this season's other Big 10 power, Ohio State. Carolina's most notable win was their 34-0 opening game win over North Carolina State in which they broke open the game in the second half and ended up holding the Wolfpack to just 138 total yards of offense. Their other win of note was a mid season road win at Ole Miss, 31-24. The teams had almost even defensive stats with Iowa better against the rush and Carolina better against the pass. Iowa does show up statistically better in turnovers as Carolina averaged losing 2.8 per game (# 117) while Iowa averaged recovering 2.2 per game (# 18). Iowa arguably played a weaker schedule although the SEC overall was not as strong this season as in the past few seasons. Still, Iowa had a net scoring differential of plus 17 points per game while Carolina was plus just 1.5. The teams combined to allow an average of just 33.4 points per game and neither offense was explosive, suggestive of a low scoring game here, as the Total suggests. Iowa held 5 foes to under 10 points and no team scored more than 27 against the Hawkeyes. Although Carolina gave up 56 points to Florida and 31 to Clemson in its final two games, no other team scored more than 24 against the Gamecocks. Each team held 7 foes to under 300 yards of total offense. South Carolina misses a Bowl last season but was 1-1 the prior 2 seasons, both time as favorites, in what were their first Bowl appearances in 4 seasons. Iowa also missed a Bowl last season after 6 straight Bowl trips in which they were 3-3 3-1 S/U and 4-2 ATS - although they were underdogs in all 6 Bowls. Again, the pedigree of SEC vs Big 10 counts for something and although Iowa had the stronger finish to the season South Carolina faced a better class of foe. Both teams are well coached but getting the faster SEC team as an underdog is enough to tilt the scales. South Carolina upsets Iowa, 20-17, making
SOUTH CAROLINA a 3 Star Selection
UNDER a 4 Star Selection .
Gator Bowl - Jacksonville, FL - Thursday, January 1, 2009
To 'old timers' this matchup will evoke memories of 1981 when Clemson defeated Nebraska in the Orange Bowl to win the National Title and cap a 12-0 season. Now, a generation later, much less is at stake although both get to play on New Year's Day albeit in a lesser Bowl. Whereas Nebraska was the more dominant program when these teams met back then, today Clemson has had the more recent success and the Tigers are in their fourth straight Bowl and ninth in 10 years. Nebraska seemingly hit bottom last season, missing a Bowl for the second time in 4 seasons after having gone to a Bowl for 35 straight seasons between 1969 and 2003. Nebraska made a coaching change after last season, bringing in defensive minded Bo Pelini. After starting 3-0 the 'Huskers lost 3 straight before finishing on a 5-1 run that included only one win over a Bowl bound team (Kansas). Overall Nebraska was 2-4 against fellow Bowler. Clemson made a mid season coaching change after failing to live up to pre season expectations that had Clemson a BCS Title contender. But the Tigers lost badly to Alabama to start the season only to win 3 straight before losing 3 in a row to stand 3-4. Clemson then won 4 of 5 to close the season and was 3-5 against Bowl bound teams. Nebraska was decidedly the better team on offense while Clemson holds a solid edge in the defensive stats although the teams were almost even defending the run. Nebraska had much worse pass defense stats but that would figure in the highly pass effective Big 12. But even when adjusting for the quality of offenses faced Clemson's pass defense was extraordinary, allowing just 5.1 yards per pass attempt (second only to USC) and 9.1 yards per attempt (again, second only to USC). That suggests Nebraska will have to show they can run the ball in order to set up their more potent pass attack. Nebraska posted impressive offensive stats down the stretch but did so against much weaker defenses than they will encounter here. The expectation is that Clemson's defense - the best unit on the field - will succeed in dictating game flow. Clemson gets the win 27-21, making
CLEMSON a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .
Capital One Bowl - Orlando, FL - Thursday, January 1, 2009
By many accounts Georgia was the top team in the nation beginning this season as they returned a lot of strength from the team that closed the 2007 season very impressively. But after starting 4-0 the Bulldogs hosted also unbeaten Alabama and were thrashed 41-30 in a game Georgia trailed 31-0 at the half. Hopes of a BCS title were dashed for good a month later when they were routed by Florida 49-10. Georgia's third and final loss of the season came in the finale when they let a halftime lead slip away en route to a 45-42 loss to Georgia Tech. Georgia's only win of note was a 52-38 road win at LSU in mid season. Overall Georgia won 5 of 8 teams headed to Bowls. Michigan State also lost just 3 games but two of the losses were blowout losses to powers Ohio State (45-7) and Penn State (49-18). The other loss was a season opening loss at Bowl bound Cal. MSU also had 5 wins against other Bowl teams. Georgia has the better overall stats and plays in the much tougher SEC. Their primary and secondary stats are better virtually across the board and they are the more talented team. They are 8-2 in Bowls over the past decade including 4-3 ATS when favored. Michigan State is 4-3 ATS in Bowls over the past decade, winning twice, and were underdogs all 4 times. This may be an attractive matchup based on their identical 9-3 records but both teams have flaws, especially when stepping up in class. Here, MSU is stepping up in class while Georgia's motivation is questioned given their expectation back in August. In the final analysis Georgia's slight edge at RB and major edge at QB, combined with the better overall defense and team speed, makes them the call. Georgia wins 34-24, making
GEORGIA a 2 Star Selection
OVER a 2 Star Selection .
Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA - Thursday, January 1, 2009
There's much to like about both of these perennial powers who take identical 11-1 records into the Granddaddy of all Bowl games. USC's lone loss came at Oregon State27-21, ironically the same team that was two weeks earlier crushed at Penn State 45-14. Penn State's lone loss was a late 24-23 loss at Iowa. Both teams also played and defeated Ohio State. USC routed the Buckeyes early in the season 35-3 at home, outgaining OSU 348-207. Penn State won at Ohio State 13-6, but were slightly outgained 287 to 281. The perception is that Penn State had the far better offense than USC but the teams were actually separated by just 1 yard in total offense per game although Penn State did average 3 more points on the scoreboard. USC does have the better defensive stats, allowing 58 ypg and nearly 5 points per game less than the Nittany Lions. Both defenses excelled against the rush. USC held 10 of 12 foes to 10 points or less and tossed 3 shutouts. Penn State held 8 of 12 foes to 14 points or less, with 5 of the 8 limited to single digits. USC played the more demanding non-conference schedule with wins over Virginia, Ohio State and Notre Dame while Penn State defeated Coastal Carolina, Temple, Syracuse in addition to the aforementioned Oregon State. Both teams have well balanced offenses with almost identical rushing and passing per game averages. On a per play basis, defensively, USC has significant edges, allowing 0.3 yards less per rush, (2.6 vs 2.9), 1.2 yards less per pass attempt (4.3 vs 5.5) and nearly 2 yards less per pass completion (8.3 vs 10.2). Those defensive edges combined with the fact that after long layoffs its generally tougher for offenses to find their rhythms rather than defenses suggest the Penn State should find it tough to gain chunks of yardage against the Trojans. This is virtually a home game for USC and they are making a fourth straight appearance in the Rose Bowl, winning each of the past 2 years. They also have a stellar record under coach Pete Carroll against Big 10 foes. While taking the generous points with Penn State looks appealing USC's team speed, better defense and home site provided too many compelling reasons for playing the favorite. While Penn State should keep the game close for awhile, USC's superior talent ultimately enables the Trojans to pull away. USC wins 28-13, making
USC a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .
Orange Bowl - Miami, FL - Thursday, January 1, 2009
The champions of the two weakest BCS conferences do battle in the Orange Bowl and Virginia Tech is back for a second straight year, losing last season 24-21 to Kansas, a controversial pick over Big 12 rival Missouri which had solidly defeated the Jayhawks in the regular season finale. Tech has not fared well in Bowls of late, losing in 4 of the past 5 seasons. This appearance, however, makes it 16 straight seasons of Bowling for Tech under coach Frank Beamer. Cincinnati is in a Bowl for a third straight season (and seventh in 9 seasons). Cincy has won their last 3 Bowl games. The Bearcats also won their final 6 games this season. Tech ended the season with 3 straight wins (including the ACC Title game) after a mid to late season swoon that saw them lose 3 of 4. Cincy had a decided edge on offense although that edge was largely in the passing game where they averaged 254 ypg, nearly double that of VT. Tech had the stronger running game, rushing for 168 ypg to just 121 for Cincy. Virginia Tech did have a solid edge on defense, allowing just 277 ypg (# 7) but Cincy's defense was not that far behind (316 ypg, # 26). Both teams allowed just over 100 ypg on the ground. In non conference play both teams visited Big 12 venues with Tech winning 35-20 at Nebraska while Cincy was blown out at Oklahoma, 52-26, allowing almost 600 yards to the Sooners. Both teams will be motivated. Tech wants redemption from last season's close loss here while Cincy seeks to continue their late season momentum by winning their first ever BCS game. Tech has always been noted for their defense and special teams but Cincy has also performed well in both areas. Tech arguably played the more difficult overall schedule facing 9 teams that are in Bowl games (Cincy faced 6) but there's really not much in the way of significant edges to be overly enthused about either side in this game. It appears very evenly matched. Cincinnati seems the more talented team and has gotten more from the QB position. For that reason the preference is to go with the short chalk and call for a Bearcat win. But it should be close. Cincinnati wins 24-20, making
CINCINNATI a 1 Star Selection
OVER a 1 Star Selection
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Brand X Sports, Mike Volpe Bowl Package = 11-13
Outback Bowl Thursday January 1
Iowa Hawkeyes versus South Carolina Gamecocks
Line Iowa -3.5 Total 43
Iowa has the better team and more impressive season resume but I would not bet a Big 10 favorite in a Bowl with someone else’s money.
Let’s buck the number and go against the 10th and 11th ranked defenses and take the OVER 43 in this one.
Iowa has put up 210 points in the last six games and the Gamecocks have let up 87 in their last two.
3* OVER 43
Gator Bowl Thursday January 1
Clemson Tigers versus Nebraska Cornhuskers
Line Clemson -4 Total 56
Both teams come into this contest in Jacksonville on three-game winning streaks. Clemson (7-5) also was victorious in four of its last five games, while Nebraska (8-4) took five of its final six.
I am going to take the corn shuckers +4 as Clemson QB situation is down to a quality freshman starter Wily Korn coming off shoulder surgery or Cullen Harper who three for 11 tds….and twelve picks
3* Nebraska Cornhuskers
Capital One Bowl Thursday January 1
Michigan State Spartans versus Georgia Bulldogs
Line Georgia -7.5 Total 55
Michigan State had a great year but got CRUSHED the only two times they played a quality opponent (45-5 to Ohio State and 49-18 to Penn State)
Georgia had a great year but was stunned by Georgia Tech in the season finale.
I am going to “Remember the Spartans” (Victor Mature are you still out there?)
And grab the TD and hook
4* Michigan State Spartans +7.5
Rose Bowl Thursday January 1
Penn State Nittany Lions versus USC Trojans
Line USC -10 Total 45
USC owns an 8-0 record versus the Big 10 and really flew under the radar this year at 11-1
Penn State was probably thirty seconds away from playing for the BCS Championship
when they could not stop Iowa from scoring as time ran out in their only loss of the season.
Looking at this game like Joe Q. Public, my gut tells me USC will romp.
Vegas did not make 102 billion last year because Joe Q. Public wins.
5* Penn State Nittany Lions +10
Bonus 3* on the UNDER 45
Orange Bowl Thursday January 1
Virginia Tech Hokies versus Cincinnati Bearcats
Line Cincinnati -2 Total 42
Virginia Tech has dramatically improved as the season progressed.
Tech recovered from a shattering season opener home loss to East Carolina and two consecutive losses in Conference to win the ACC and play on New Year’s Day.
Cincinnati has been rock solid as their defense all year long. Only losses to #1 Oklahoma and in conference rival blemish the Bearcats season record.
This is a tough match up but I am going to lay the two points and take the Bearcats.
Cincy’s is just a tad better on both sides of the ball
2* Cincinnati Bearcats -2
Bonus 3* on the OVER 42
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Outback Bowl Thursday January 1
Iowa Hawkeyes versus South Carolina Gamecocks
Line Iowa -3.5 Total 43
Iowa has the better team and more impressive season resume but I would not bet a Big 10 favorite in a Bowl with someone else’s money.
Let’s buck the number and go against the 10th and 11th ranked defenses and take the OVER 43 in this one.
Iowa has put up 210 points in the last six games and the Gamecocks have let up 87 in their last two.
3* OVER 43
Gator Bowl Thursday January 1
Clemson Tigers versus Nebraska Cornhuskers
Line Clemson -4 Total 56
Both teams come into this contest in Jacksonville on three-game winning streaks. Clemson (7-5) also was victorious in four of its last five games, while Nebraska (8-4) took five of its final six.
I am going to take the corn shuckers +4 as Clemson QB situation is down to a quality freshman starter Wily Korn coming off shoulder surgery or Cullen Harper who three for 11 tds….and twelve picks
3* Nebraska Cornhuskers
Capital One Bowl Thursday January 1
Michigan State Spartans versus Georgia Bulldogs
Line Georgia -7.5 Total 55
Michigan State had a great year but got CRUSHED the only two times they played a quality opponent (45-5 to Ohio State and 49-18 to Penn State)
Georgia had a great year but was stunned by Georgia Tech in the season finale.
I am going to “Remember the Spartans” (Victor Mature are you still out there?)
And grab the TD and hook
4* Michigan State Spartans +7.5
Rose Bowl Thursday January 1
Penn State Nittany Lions versus USC Trojans
Line USC -10 Total 45
USC owns an 8-0 record versus the Big 10 and really flew under the radar this year at 11-1
Penn State was probably thirty seconds away from playing for the BCS Championship
when they could not stop Iowa from scoring as time ran out in their only loss of the season.
Looking at this game like Joe Q. Public, my gut tells me USC will romp.
Vegas did not make 102 billion last year because Joe Q. Public wins.
5* Penn State Nittany Lions +10
Bonus 3* on the UNDER 45
Orange Bowl Thursday January 1
Virginia Tech Hokies versus Cincinnati Bearcats
Line Cincinnati -2 Total 42
Virginia Tech has dramatically improved as the season progressed.
Tech recovered from a shattering season opener home loss to East Carolina and two consecutive losses in Conference to win the ACC and play on New Year’s Day.
Cincinnati has been rock solid as their defense all year long. Only losses to #1 Oklahoma and in conference rival blemish the Bearcats season record.
This is a tough match up but I am going to lay the two points and take the Bearcats.
Cincy’s is just a tad better on both sides of the ball
2* Cincinnati Bearcats -2
Bonus 3* on the OVER 42
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Winning Points = 8-14
Thursday January 1
OUTBACK BOWL (Tampa, FL)
IOWA over SOUTH CAROLINA by 5
A typical football season is filled with many ironies, but few stories were as intriguing as what happened at South Carolina this season – in his fourth season, and with new defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson on board, Steve Spurrier finally put together a first class defense, with his Gamecocks rating 11th nationally in total defense, and #3 in pass efficiency defense. Yet all it could turn into was a disappointing 7-5 because of what could not be expected, as the Old Ball Coach simply
could not put together an offense. The Gamecocks were awful across the board, rating 97th in total offense, 92nd in scoring, 109th in rushing and 90th in pass efficiency, with multiple switches back and forth from Chris Smelley to Stephen Garcia not helping. And given how the offense failed in those major showdowns vs. Florida and Clemson to close out the schedule (20 points and 477 yards in the two games combined, with eight turnovers) there is little reason to believe anything changes here. By the way, now it is Garcia’s turn again. Iowa came close to being
something special this season, with all four losses coming by five points or less, and while the Hawkeyes also do not have anything special at QB in Ricky Stanzi, they do have the nation’s best RB in Shonn Greene (1,729 yards at 6.2 per carry, with 17 rushing TD’s), which provides them with a sense of direction that Carolina
lacks. IOWA 24-19.
GATOR BOWL (Jacksonville, FL)
NEBRASKA over CLEMSON by 2
It has been a long time since a team that accomplished as little on the field as Clemson did this season was rewarded with a New Year’s appearance, but in a balanced and mediocre A.C.C. the Tigers managed to go 4-4, and then somehow “negotiate” their way to this venue, despite the fact that three conference teams with better records, including two that beat them head-to-head, will have already packed up their equipment for the season before this one kicks off. And while there
is at least some continuity with Dabo Swinney keeping the coaching job full-time, we are not sure there is a cohesive staff putting this game plan together – he has already announced the hiring of three new assistants, who are not on board for this game but do pose a distraction to those currently on hand, while defensive coordinator Vic Koenning has announced his resignation after this one is over, and will almost assuredly have a similar position at another school lined up soon. That does
not give us a whole lot of confidence in the Tigers as favorites, and while they do bring the better defense to the table, Nebraska improved dramatically on that side of the ball under Bo Pelini, stirring hopes that the “Black Shirts” will soon be back. The offense is also a much smoother machine with the heady leadership of QB Joe Ganz, and keep in mind that for all of the talk about Clemson’s RB tandem of James Davis and C. J. Spiller, the Tigers reached 200 yards rushing one time in 11
lined games. NEBRASKA 26-24.
CAPITAL ONE BOWL (Orlando, FL)
GEORGIA over MICHIGAN STATE by 11
It never “happened” at Georgia this season. A team loaded with future NFL 1st round draft choices in the skill positions was hampered early by an OL that needed time to develop, and a defense that never did find itself. So instead of playing for all of the marbles this is what they are relegated to. That means that this could be an all-or-nothing affair, as they could either come out flat off of the disappointing campaign, or vent some frustrations and perhaps play their best game of the season. While much of that is a guessing game, we will let the opposition provide us with our direction here. Michigan State had two step-up games against BCS teams, and got bludgeoned by a combined 94-25 vs. Ohio State and Penn
State. And while much of the buildup here will focus on Javon Ringer challenging the Georgia defense, the bottom line is that the Spartans actually do not have much of a ground game. It was one thing for Ohio State and Penn State to outmuscle them 354-87 overland, but check their other results vs. bowl opponents – they were whipped 203-81 at California; were mashed 281-25 at home vs. Wisconsin; could only muster 91 yards to Iowa’s 151 despite being at home; and at Northwestern they lost that battle 176-128. Get the picture? When their “strength” is actually nothing special they are not ready for this class yet, and their
weaknesses might help to provide Georgia with the ability to make early plays and
create a spark. GEORGIA 31-20.
ROSE BOWL (Pasadena, CA)
SOUTHERN CAL over PENN STATE by 7
It is a common practice to study the psychology of teams involved in the minor bowls, since many of them are not truly receiving the rewards that they were looking for. But can that actually be the case in a BCS affair? It just might be here. Pete Carroll and his Trojans began practice in the spring thinking National Championship, with anything less considered a failure. Now not only did they miss their target, but they also end up in the Rose Bowl for the fourth straight season. Yes, there is plenty of pageantry for this event, but they have seen it all before, and where did they play their final regular season game? On this very field. There
is a certain professionalism that Carroll and his staff bring, and the Trojans may have more talent than any team in the land, but we do not expect to see the best they have to offer in this one. Contrast that with a Penn State team that has played beyond expectations this season, and brings the kind of speed on defense that can thwart a Southern Cal offense that never did develop a rhythm, failing to dominate opponents either overland or through the air. But making a stronger call to the underdog is not easy because the Nittany Lions will find their points difficult to come by. Their spread attack was based on creating mismatches against slower
defenders, but those are not available here, and when forced to make plays on his own, QB Daryll Clark has been little more than average against class competition.
SOUTHERN CAL 23-16.
ORANGE BOWL (Miami, FL)
CINCINNATI over VIRGINIA TECH by 6
For all of the various criticisms about the BCS, one of the prime ones does not get talked about often enough – the automatic linking to various conferences, which forced this matchup despite the fact that neither of these teams belong here. But we take the cards that are dealt, and they just might give us a hand that we can win. There are similarities galore here, with both teams boasting quickness and tenacity on defense and solid special teams, with also ground games that under-achieved.
But then it comes to the big gap, passing the football. For Virginia Tech there was never a sign of development, starting with Frank Beamer’s misguided notion of red-shirting Tyrod Taylor and letting the less-mobile Sean Glennon run the show. Glennon would have been fine if the Hokies could run the ball, but they could not. And while Taylor’s athleticism presents some challenges for defenses, his throwing ability does not command any respect. So Tech finished 107th in the nation in
total offense and 98th in pass efficiency, which is most dubious for an Orange Bowl, and that unit gets further weakened by the loss of Nick Marshman up front. Meanwhile Cincinnati had to deal with injuries at the QB position, but things came together when Tony Pike was healthy – he completed 62.9 percent of his passes, for 2,168 yards and 18 touchdowns, and if anything gets a major boost from the extra practices for this game. He was not the starter in August, and this added time to build a game plan around his skills may do wonders for the Bearcats.
CINCINNATI 23-17.
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Thursday January 1
OUTBACK BOWL (Tampa, FL)
IOWA over SOUTH CAROLINA by 5
A typical football season is filled with many ironies, but few stories were as intriguing as what happened at South Carolina this season – in his fourth season, and with new defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson on board, Steve Spurrier finally put together a first class defense, with his Gamecocks rating 11th nationally in total defense, and #3 in pass efficiency defense. Yet all it could turn into was a disappointing 7-5 because of what could not be expected, as the Old Ball Coach simply
could not put together an offense. The Gamecocks were awful across the board, rating 97th in total offense, 92nd in scoring, 109th in rushing and 90th in pass efficiency, with multiple switches back and forth from Chris Smelley to Stephen Garcia not helping. And given how the offense failed in those major showdowns vs. Florida and Clemson to close out the schedule (20 points and 477 yards in the two games combined, with eight turnovers) there is little reason to believe anything changes here. By the way, now it is Garcia’s turn again. Iowa came close to being
something special this season, with all four losses coming by five points or less, and while the Hawkeyes also do not have anything special at QB in Ricky Stanzi, they do have the nation’s best RB in Shonn Greene (1,729 yards at 6.2 per carry, with 17 rushing TD’s), which provides them with a sense of direction that Carolina
lacks. IOWA 24-19.
GATOR BOWL (Jacksonville, FL)
NEBRASKA over CLEMSON by 2
It has been a long time since a team that accomplished as little on the field as Clemson did this season was rewarded with a New Year’s appearance, but in a balanced and mediocre A.C.C. the Tigers managed to go 4-4, and then somehow “negotiate” their way to this venue, despite the fact that three conference teams with better records, including two that beat them head-to-head, will have already packed up their equipment for the season before this one kicks off. And while there
is at least some continuity with Dabo Swinney keeping the coaching job full-time, we are not sure there is a cohesive staff putting this game plan together – he has already announced the hiring of three new assistants, who are not on board for this game but do pose a distraction to those currently on hand, while defensive coordinator Vic Koenning has announced his resignation after this one is over, and will almost assuredly have a similar position at another school lined up soon. That does
not give us a whole lot of confidence in the Tigers as favorites, and while they do bring the better defense to the table, Nebraska improved dramatically on that side of the ball under Bo Pelini, stirring hopes that the “Black Shirts” will soon be back. The offense is also a much smoother machine with the heady leadership of QB Joe Ganz, and keep in mind that for all of the talk about Clemson’s RB tandem of James Davis and C. J. Spiller, the Tigers reached 200 yards rushing one time in 11
lined games. NEBRASKA 26-24.
CAPITAL ONE BOWL (Orlando, FL)
GEORGIA over MICHIGAN STATE by 11
It never “happened” at Georgia this season. A team loaded with future NFL 1st round draft choices in the skill positions was hampered early by an OL that needed time to develop, and a defense that never did find itself. So instead of playing for all of the marbles this is what they are relegated to. That means that this could be an all-or-nothing affair, as they could either come out flat off of the disappointing campaign, or vent some frustrations and perhaps play their best game of the season. While much of that is a guessing game, we will let the opposition provide us with our direction here. Michigan State had two step-up games against BCS teams, and got bludgeoned by a combined 94-25 vs. Ohio State and Penn
State. And while much of the buildup here will focus on Javon Ringer challenging the Georgia defense, the bottom line is that the Spartans actually do not have much of a ground game. It was one thing for Ohio State and Penn State to outmuscle them 354-87 overland, but check their other results vs. bowl opponents – they were whipped 203-81 at California; were mashed 281-25 at home vs. Wisconsin; could only muster 91 yards to Iowa’s 151 despite being at home; and at Northwestern they lost that battle 176-128. Get the picture? When their “strength” is actually nothing special they are not ready for this class yet, and their
weaknesses might help to provide Georgia with the ability to make early plays and
create a spark. GEORGIA 31-20.
ROSE BOWL (Pasadena, CA)
SOUTHERN CAL over PENN STATE by 7
It is a common practice to study the psychology of teams involved in the minor bowls, since many of them are not truly receiving the rewards that they were looking for. But can that actually be the case in a BCS affair? It just might be here. Pete Carroll and his Trojans began practice in the spring thinking National Championship, with anything less considered a failure. Now not only did they miss their target, but they also end up in the Rose Bowl for the fourth straight season. Yes, there is plenty of pageantry for this event, but they have seen it all before, and where did they play their final regular season game? On this very field. There
is a certain professionalism that Carroll and his staff bring, and the Trojans may have more talent than any team in the land, but we do not expect to see the best they have to offer in this one. Contrast that with a Penn State team that has played beyond expectations this season, and brings the kind of speed on defense that can thwart a Southern Cal offense that never did develop a rhythm, failing to dominate opponents either overland or through the air. But making a stronger call to the underdog is not easy because the Nittany Lions will find their points difficult to come by. Their spread attack was based on creating mismatches against slower
defenders, but those are not available here, and when forced to make plays on his own, QB Daryll Clark has been little more than average against class competition.
SOUTHERN CAL 23-16.
ORANGE BOWL (Miami, FL)
CINCINNATI over VIRGINIA TECH by 6
For all of the various criticisms about the BCS, one of the prime ones does not get talked about often enough – the automatic linking to various conferences, which forced this matchup despite the fact that neither of these teams belong here. But we take the cards that are dealt, and they just might give us a hand that we can win. There are similarities galore here, with both teams boasting quickness and tenacity on defense and solid special teams, with also ground games that under-achieved.
But then it comes to the big gap, passing the football. For Virginia Tech there was never a sign of development, starting with Frank Beamer’s misguided notion of red-shirting Tyrod Taylor and letting the less-mobile Sean Glennon run the show. Glennon would have been fine if the Hokies could run the ball, but they could not. And while Taylor’s athleticism presents some challenges for defenses, his throwing ability does not command any respect. So Tech finished 107th in the nation in
total offense and 98th in pass efficiency, which is most dubious for an Orange Bowl, and that unit gets further weakened by the loss of Nick Marshman up front. Meanwhile Cincinnati had to deal with injuries at the QB position, but things came together when Tony Pike was healthy – he completed 62.9 percent of his passes, for 2,168 yards and 18 touchdowns, and if anything gets a major boost from the extra practices for this game. He was not the starter in August, and this added time to build a game plan around his skills may do wonders for the Bearcats.
CINCINNATI 23-17.
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NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS = 5 - 3
NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (104-74-1) ... IOWA
OUTBACK BOWL
This is a battle of two solid defenses, but Iowa has the off edge over Spurrier’s team that has struggled with inconsistent QBs and no running game due to poor OL play. PP calls for Iowa to win by 7 (line 3’) with the ydg forecast close. We agree with PP as Iowa fi nished the ssn with 3 str wins including upsetting Penn St while SC lost their L/2 and is lucky to be playing on NY’s Day.
4★ IOWA 21 SOUTH CAROLINA 14
GATOR BOWL
Surprisingly, Clemson is favored by 2’ as two of their 7 wins are over FCS tms while Neb has 8 wins over FBS teams. PP says it’s a tossup but gives NU a 410-315 yd edge, so we’ll take the pts here.
4★ NEBRASKA (+) 27 CLEMSON 27
ROSE BOWL
PSU is excited to be playing in their 1st Rose Bowl in 14 yrs while USC made it known that they preferred to play an SEC or Big 12 team in another BCS game TY instead of their 4th straight Rose Bowl appearance. PP calls for USC to win by 9 (line 10), and we like Penn St in this one.
2★ PENN STATE (+) 20 USC 29
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NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (104-74-1) ... IOWA
OUTBACK BOWL
This is a battle of two solid defenses, but Iowa has the off edge over Spurrier’s team that has struggled with inconsistent QBs and no running game due to poor OL play. PP calls for Iowa to win by 7 (line 3’) with the ydg forecast close. We agree with PP as Iowa fi nished the ssn with 3 str wins including upsetting Penn St while SC lost their L/2 and is lucky to be playing on NY’s Day.
4★ IOWA 21 SOUTH CAROLINA 14
GATOR BOWL
Surprisingly, Clemson is favored by 2’ as two of their 7 wins are over FCS tms while Neb has 8 wins over FBS teams. PP says it’s a tossup but gives NU a 410-315 yd edge, so we’ll take the pts here.
4★ NEBRASKA (+) 27 CLEMSON 27
ROSE BOWL
PSU is excited to be playing in their 1st Rose Bowl in 14 yrs while USC made it known that they preferred to play an SEC or Big 12 team in another BCS game TY instead of their 4th straight Rose Bowl appearance. PP calls for USC to win by 9 (line 10), and we like Penn St in this one.
2★ PENN STATE (+) 20 USC 29
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Pointwise = 7-15
IOWA (8-4) vs SOUTH CAROLINA (7-5)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
11:00 AM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Iowa ............ 43.7 .. 30-13 .. 21-17 . 190- 98 .. 185- 191 .. + 6 . Iowa
So Caro ...... 48.1 .. 22-20 .. 19-16 ... 98-129 .. 219- 160 .. - 9 . by 9.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
It didn't take the Hawkeyes of Iowa long to return to the bowl scene. A year
ago, they posted a 6-6 record, good enough for "bowl eligibility", but still their
first non-winning season since '00, & a stay-at-home holiday, thanks mainly to
a season-ending 28-19 loss to WesternMich, as 2-TD chalks. And that just 3
years removed from their 3rd consecutive double-digit win campaign, when
Kirk Ferentz was acclaimed as one of the true elite coaches in the country. It
looked like more of the same this year, when Iowa saw a 3-0 start vs the dregs,
turn into 3-3, with hard fought losses to Pitt, N'Western, & MichSt, due mainly
to 9 TOs, including 5 vs the Wildcats. But they were to lose only once more, at
Illinois, on a 46-yd FG in the final 0:24. Over the entire course of the season,
only PennSt had an overland edge over Iowa, as the 'Hawks finished 9th in the
nation vs the run. And at year's end their stellar ball toter Greene finished 2nd
in the nation with 1,729 yds (6.2 ypr), & 17 TDs. QB Stanzi is steady, if not
spectacular, altho he did throw for 3 TDs in Iowa's season-ending 55-0 rout of
Minny (23-6 FD, 222-7 RY edges). The Gamecocks of South Carolina wound
up the season with a pair of disappointing losses, by a combined 87-20 score,
but still rank 11th in the nation in total "D" (tied with Iowa). Wins over bowlbound
NCSt, OleMiss, & Kentucky saw SC at just 108 RYpg, offensively, while its 5
losses had the 'Cocks at a 187-62 RYpg deficit. Ranking 110th in running, the
offensive onus therefore, is squarely on the QB duo of Smelley & Garcia, who
combined for just 56%, 2,496 yds, & a negative 19/20 TD/INT ratio. Spurrier in
a New Year's Day Florida bowl, but Iowa's overland supremacy the final edge.
PROPHECY: IOWA 27 - South Carolina 17 RATING: 2
CLEMSON (7-5) vs NEBRASKA (8-4)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Clemson ..... 46.1 .. 26-16 .. 18-16 .. 121-128 .. 219-167.. - 2 . Clemson
Nebraska .... 44.9 .. 36-29 .. 23-18 .. 164-128 .. 285-234.. - 10 . by 2.8 Pts
ANALYSIS
In 2004, the Cornhuskers of Nebraska failed to make it to a bowl game, which
marked their first miss, after 32 straight years of holiday season inclusion.
But a quick return, with Alamo Bowl & Cotton Bowl appearances in '05 & '06,
before missing again last year with a 5-7 log, despite a definite turnaround in
their offensive capability, finishing 9th in total "O". Right, a defense that checked
in at #112 overall, & #114 in scoring. This season, that "O" is again purring,
under new coach Pelini, ranking 12th in total, & 18th in scoring. QB Ganz is
the catalyst, throwing for 3,329 yds (69.2%), along with 23 TDs (10 INTs), but
the 'Huskers also move it overland, averaging 212 RYpg in their last 6 outings,
with Helu toting it at 6.7 ypr. Nebraska couldn't stay with the likes of Missouri
& Oklahoma, but 5 & 6 pt losses to VaTech & Kansas (OT) in their other 2
losses, were well within the respectable range. And they've reached the 30-pt
plateau in 13 of their last 15 tilts. The Tigers of Clemson were ranked #9 in the
preseason polls, but their much ballyhooed backfield of Harper, Davis, & Spiller
opened with a whimper, failing to top 17 pts in 4 of its first 5 lined games,
losing all 4, not only SU, by ATS, by 46½ pts. Note a 12-2 TO deficit in those
4 setbacks. Anyway, bye-bye to Tommy Bowden, & hello, to Dabo Swinney,
with vast improvement the result. Check the Tigers winning 4 of their final 5
games, due mainly to Harper, and a solid "D", as that overland game is at only
88 ypg over CU's final 7 games. The Tigers rank 15th in total "D", & 9th in
passing efficiency "D", which could spell trouble for Ganz & Co. Rematch of
the '81 Orange Bowl, which resulted in a National Title for Clemson. Huskers!
PROPHECY: NEBRASKA 30 - Clemson 27 RATING: 4
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (11-1) vs PENN STATE (11-1)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
4:30 PM EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
USC ............ 41.9 .. 38- 8 .. 23-13 .. 207- 83 .. 246-123 .. + 5 . USC
Penn State . 43.4 .. 40-12 .. 23-15 .. 211- 96 .. 241-168 .. + 9 . by 5.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
What a match! The joke that is the BCS has now eliminated at least 4 squads
which should have had a shot at all the marbles, including the participants of
this classic, a pair of gridiron elites, who are rarely far from the pinnacle at
season's end. The Nittany Lions of Penn State, however, suffered through 4
losing seasons in 5 years ('00-'04), with cries of the game passing Paterno by
abounding. But Joe & Co snapped back with an 11-1 season in '06, missing a
perfect season on a final play loss to Michigan. Then a pair of 9-4 campaigns,
before hitting on all cylinders with this year's "HD" offense, which has been the
epitome of balance all season, resulting in a near-perfect record, losing only to
Iowa, by a single pt, on a last-second FG. QB Clark has been magnificent:
60%, 2,324 yds, 17 TDs, & only 4 INTs. Overland, Royster is at 6.5 ypr (1,202
yds & 12 TDs). Defensively? How about ranking 5th overall, 8th vs the run, &
3rd in scoring? One of their early season victims was OregonSt, which was
pummelled by the Lions, 45-14. So it must be noted that the Beavs represent
the only slipup for the Trojans of USC, in an otherwise perfect campaign. In
that one, Troy was on the short end of a 176-86 RY difference, allowing 186
RYs to Beaver RB Rodgers. But that loss served to jack the Trojans for the
remainder of the season, resulting in a 338-53 pt edge in their ensuing 9 tilts.
Statwise, USC has no peer, ranking 1st in total, passing, & scoring "D", as well
as 5th vs the run. Check holding a 55-11 FD edge in its last 2 games. Fifth
Rose Bowl for USC in the past 6 years, & Troy is 5-1 ATS in bowls since '02,
scoring 38, 28, 55, 38, 32, & 49 pts. Sanchez & Co continue that brilliance.
PROPHECY: SO CALIFORNIA 38 - Penn State 24 RATING: 4
GEORGIA (9-3) vs MICHIGAN STATE (9-3)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Georgia ...... 51.3 .. 32-26 .. 21-18 . 154-130 .. 280- 188 .. - 2 . Georgia
Mich St ....... 43.6 .. 26-22 .. 19-17 . 138-148 .. 214- 210 .. + 1 . by 7.7 Pts
ANALYSIS
As you know, on our opening issue each yr, we include a column, called "The
Polls", which is a consensus ranking of various leading gridiron magazines.
Well, the Bulldogs of Georgia ranked 2nd, by just a hair, to OhioSt, in that preseason
poll. Returning 17 starters from LY's 11-2 team, which finished with 7
straight wins, including a 41-10 blowout of Hawaii, in the Sugar Bowl, was
reason enough to elevate the 'Dawgs to such lofty heights. But injuries took
their toll, along with a schedule, which is 2nd to none, in terms of difficulty. At
season's end, Georgia ranked a respectable 27th in total "D", but check being
stung for 38 or more pts in 4 of their last 5 games, while allowing 252 RYpg in
those 4. Offensively, QB Stafford ranks 16th, nationally in passing, clicking at
61% (3,209 yds), with 22 TDs (9 INTs), throwing to the brilliant Massaquoi &
Green (combined 1,861 yds & 16 TDs). But RB Moreno is the heart-&-soul of
this "O" (1,338 yds, 16 TDs). Can the Spartans of Michigan State, who are
making their first January bowl in 9 years, corral that "O"? Well, MSU, which
is also making back-to-back bowl appearances for the first time in 11 years,
has had its moments, to be sure, mostly due to the exploits of RB Ringer, who
finished 4th, nationally, with 1,590 yds (19 TDs), & that includes 896 RYs in a
5-game stretch, to wind up a 6-game Spartan run, before being taken apart,
45-7, by OhioSt. And check a season-ending 49-18 loss at PennSt (557-322
yd deficit). QB Hoyer is barely above 50%, with just 9 TD passes & 8 picks.
So, it's Ringer, or nothing, apparently. We would love to grab the TD spot in
this one, but the 'Dawgs are a 10-4 ATS bowl play lately, covering by 23 in '07.
PROPHECY: GEORGIA 38 - Michigan State 20 RATING: 2
CINCINNATI (11-2) vs VIRGINIA TECH (9-4)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
8:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Cincinnati ... 43.4 .. 27-20 .. 20-17 . 121-124 .. 254- 211 .. - 5 . Va Tech
Va Tech ....... 44.6 .. 22-18 .. 17-14 . 170-107 .. 128- 170 .. +11 . by 3.6 Pts
ANALYSIS
Second straight trip to this bowl for the Hokies of Virginia Tech, which makes
them the first back-to-back Orange Bowl participants since Nebraska in '96 &
'97. And try 16 consecutive bowl campaigns for Frank Beamer's minions. But
the Gobblers have dropped 4 straight BCS games, with the ACC losing its last
8 BCS skirmishes. This year's Tech squad resembles '07's team, in relying on
its "D" to carry the day. Last year, the Hokies ranked 5th, 2nd, 5th in rushing,
total, scoring "D", recording 43 sacks, & 21 interceptions. This season, Tech
ranks 19th, 7th, 10th, in those columns, respectively, with 31 sacks & 16 picks.
So, as you can see, the Hokies are still a major defensive force, altho down a
bit from a year ago. Offensively, Tech checks in at #107, compared to an 85th
ranking in '07. So again, down a bit. The QBing duo of Taylor & Glennon has
combined for a meager 1,639 yds & just 5 TDs, with 11 INTs. But the Hokies
have outrushed 8 of their last 10 foes, including a 285 yd edge over Maryland,
& a 150-45 edge over BostonCollege, in the ACC title game. Oh, & check yet
another outstanding TO year (+11). For the Bearcats of Cincinnati, who are
participating in their 7th bowl in the last 9 years, their standing in that category
is a far cry from '07, when they ranked 6th in the country with a +16 TO edge.
As we constantly remind our subscribers, Cincy has been a steady force: only
39 pts from a 33-3 ATS run, with a pair of those near misses coming by 4 & ½
pt in bowl games, the past 2 years. QB Pike, with 2,168 yds (63%, 18 TDs, 7
INTs) leads an adequate, if not spectacular "O". The Bearcats' only stumbles
came vs mighty Oklahoma, & in a 6 TO loss to UConn. Cincy, by a whisker.
PROPHECY: CINCINNATI 20 - Virginia Tech 14 RATING: 6
<!-- / message -->
IOWA (8-4) vs SOUTH CAROLINA (7-5)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
11:00 AM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Iowa ............ 43.7 .. 30-13 .. 21-17 . 190- 98 .. 185- 191 .. + 6 . Iowa
So Caro ...... 48.1 .. 22-20 .. 19-16 ... 98-129 .. 219- 160 .. - 9 . by 9.5 Pts
ANALYSIS
It didn't take the Hawkeyes of Iowa long to return to the bowl scene. A year
ago, they posted a 6-6 record, good enough for "bowl eligibility", but still their
first non-winning season since '00, & a stay-at-home holiday, thanks mainly to
a season-ending 28-19 loss to WesternMich, as 2-TD chalks. And that just 3
years removed from their 3rd consecutive double-digit win campaign, when
Kirk Ferentz was acclaimed as one of the true elite coaches in the country. It
looked like more of the same this year, when Iowa saw a 3-0 start vs the dregs,
turn into 3-3, with hard fought losses to Pitt, N'Western, & MichSt, due mainly
to 9 TOs, including 5 vs the Wildcats. But they were to lose only once more, at
Illinois, on a 46-yd FG in the final 0:24. Over the entire course of the season,
only PennSt had an overland edge over Iowa, as the 'Hawks finished 9th in the
nation vs the run. And at year's end their stellar ball toter Greene finished 2nd
in the nation with 1,729 yds (6.2 ypr), & 17 TDs. QB Stanzi is steady, if not
spectacular, altho he did throw for 3 TDs in Iowa's season-ending 55-0 rout of
Minny (23-6 FD, 222-7 RY edges). The Gamecocks of South Carolina wound
up the season with a pair of disappointing losses, by a combined 87-20 score,
but still rank 11th in the nation in total "D" (tied with Iowa). Wins over bowlbound
NCSt, OleMiss, & Kentucky saw SC at just 108 RYpg, offensively, while its 5
losses had the 'Cocks at a 187-62 RYpg deficit. Ranking 110th in running, the
offensive onus therefore, is squarely on the QB duo of Smelley & Garcia, who
combined for just 56%, 2,496 yds, & a negative 19/20 TD/INT ratio. Spurrier in
a New Year's Day Florida bowl, but Iowa's overland supremacy the final edge.
PROPHECY: IOWA 27 - South Carolina 17 RATING: 2
CLEMSON (7-5) vs NEBRASKA (8-4)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Clemson ..... 46.1 .. 26-16 .. 18-16 .. 121-128 .. 219-167.. - 2 . Clemson
Nebraska .... 44.9 .. 36-29 .. 23-18 .. 164-128 .. 285-234.. - 10 . by 2.8 Pts
ANALYSIS
In 2004, the Cornhuskers of Nebraska failed to make it to a bowl game, which
marked their first miss, after 32 straight years of holiday season inclusion.
But a quick return, with Alamo Bowl & Cotton Bowl appearances in '05 & '06,
before missing again last year with a 5-7 log, despite a definite turnaround in
their offensive capability, finishing 9th in total "O". Right, a defense that checked
in at #112 overall, & #114 in scoring. This season, that "O" is again purring,
under new coach Pelini, ranking 12th in total, & 18th in scoring. QB Ganz is
the catalyst, throwing for 3,329 yds (69.2%), along with 23 TDs (10 INTs), but
the 'Huskers also move it overland, averaging 212 RYpg in their last 6 outings,
with Helu toting it at 6.7 ypr. Nebraska couldn't stay with the likes of Missouri
& Oklahoma, but 5 & 6 pt losses to VaTech & Kansas (OT) in their other 2
losses, were well within the respectable range. And they've reached the 30-pt
plateau in 13 of their last 15 tilts. The Tigers of Clemson were ranked #9 in the
preseason polls, but their much ballyhooed backfield of Harper, Davis, & Spiller
opened with a whimper, failing to top 17 pts in 4 of its first 5 lined games,
losing all 4, not only SU, by ATS, by 46½ pts. Note a 12-2 TO deficit in those
4 setbacks. Anyway, bye-bye to Tommy Bowden, & hello, to Dabo Swinney,
with vast improvement the result. Check the Tigers winning 4 of their final 5
games, due mainly to Harper, and a solid "D", as that overland game is at only
88 ypg over CU's final 7 games. The Tigers rank 15th in total "D", & 9th in
passing efficiency "D", which could spell trouble for Ganz & Co. Rematch of
the '81 Orange Bowl, which resulted in a National Title for Clemson. Huskers!
PROPHECY: NEBRASKA 30 - Clemson 27 RATING: 4
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (11-1) vs PENN STATE (11-1)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
4:30 PM EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
USC ............ 41.9 .. 38- 8 .. 23-13 .. 207- 83 .. 246-123 .. + 5 . USC
Penn State . 43.4 .. 40-12 .. 23-15 .. 211- 96 .. 241-168 .. + 9 . by 5.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
What a match! The joke that is the BCS has now eliminated at least 4 squads
which should have had a shot at all the marbles, including the participants of
this classic, a pair of gridiron elites, who are rarely far from the pinnacle at
season's end. The Nittany Lions of Penn State, however, suffered through 4
losing seasons in 5 years ('00-'04), with cries of the game passing Paterno by
abounding. But Joe & Co snapped back with an 11-1 season in '06, missing a
perfect season on a final play loss to Michigan. Then a pair of 9-4 campaigns,
before hitting on all cylinders with this year's "HD" offense, which has been the
epitome of balance all season, resulting in a near-perfect record, losing only to
Iowa, by a single pt, on a last-second FG. QB Clark has been magnificent:
60%, 2,324 yds, 17 TDs, & only 4 INTs. Overland, Royster is at 6.5 ypr (1,202
yds & 12 TDs). Defensively? How about ranking 5th overall, 8th vs the run, &
3rd in scoring? One of their early season victims was OregonSt, which was
pummelled by the Lions, 45-14. So it must be noted that the Beavs represent
the only slipup for the Trojans of USC, in an otherwise perfect campaign. In
that one, Troy was on the short end of a 176-86 RY difference, allowing 186
RYs to Beaver RB Rodgers. But that loss served to jack the Trojans for the
remainder of the season, resulting in a 338-53 pt edge in their ensuing 9 tilts.
Statwise, USC has no peer, ranking 1st in total, passing, & scoring "D", as well
as 5th vs the run. Check holding a 55-11 FD edge in its last 2 games. Fifth
Rose Bowl for USC in the past 6 years, & Troy is 5-1 ATS in bowls since '02,
scoring 38, 28, 55, 38, 32, & 49 pts. Sanchez & Co continue that brilliance.
PROPHECY: SO CALIFORNIA 38 - Penn State 24 RATING: 4
GEORGIA (9-3) vs MICHIGAN STATE (9-3)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Georgia ...... 51.3 .. 32-26 .. 21-18 . 154-130 .. 280- 188 .. - 2 . Georgia
Mich St ....... 43.6 .. 26-22 .. 19-17 . 138-148 .. 214- 210 .. + 1 . by 7.7 Pts
ANALYSIS
As you know, on our opening issue each yr, we include a column, called "The
Polls", which is a consensus ranking of various leading gridiron magazines.
Well, the Bulldogs of Georgia ranked 2nd, by just a hair, to OhioSt, in that preseason
poll. Returning 17 starters from LY's 11-2 team, which finished with 7
straight wins, including a 41-10 blowout of Hawaii, in the Sugar Bowl, was
reason enough to elevate the 'Dawgs to such lofty heights. But injuries took
their toll, along with a schedule, which is 2nd to none, in terms of difficulty. At
season's end, Georgia ranked a respectable 27th in total "D", but check being
stung for 38 or more pts in 4 of their last 5 games, while allowing 252 RYpg in
those 4. Offensively, QB Stafford ranks 16th, nationally in passing, clicking at
61% (3,209 yds), with 22 TDs (9 INTs), throwing to the brilliant Massaquoi &
Green (combined 1,861 yds & 16 TDs). But RB Moreno is the heart-&-soul of
this "O" (1,338 yds, 16 TDs). Can the Spartans of Michigan State, who are
making their first January bowl in 9 years, corral that "O"? Well, MSU, which
is also making back-to-back bowl appearances for the first time in 11 years,
has had its moments, to be sure, mostly due to the exploits of RB Ringer, who
finished 4th, nationally, with 1,590 yds (19 TDs), & that includes 896 RYs in a
5-game stretch, to wind up a 6-game Spartan run, before being taken apart,
45-7, by OhioSt. And check a season-ending 49-18 loss at PennSt (557-322
yd deficit). QB Hoyer is barely above 50%, with just 9 TD passes & 8 picks.
So, it's Ringer, or nothing, apparently. We would love to grab the TD spot in
this one, but the 'Dawgs are a 10-4 ATS bowl play lately, covering by 23 in '07.
PROPHECY: GEORGIA 38 - Michigan State 20 RATING: 2
CINCINNATI (11-2) vs VIRGINIA TECH (9-4)
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
8:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Cincinnati ... 43.4 .. 27-20 .. 20-17 . 121-124 .. 254- 211 .. - 5 . Va Tech
Va Tech ....... 44.6 .. 22-18 .. 17-14 . 170-107 .. 128- 170 .. +11 . by 3.6 Pts
ANALYSIS
Second straight trip to this bowl for the Hokies of Virginia Tech, which makes
them the first back-to-back Orange Bowl participants since Nebraska in '96 &
'97. And try 16 consecutive bowl campaigns for Frank Beamer's minions. But
the Gobblers have dropped 4 straight BCS games, with the ACC losing its last
8 BCS skirmishes. This year's Tech squad resembles '07's team, in relying on
its "D" to carry the day. Last year, the Hokies ranked 5th, 2nd, 5th in rushing,
total, scoring "D", recording 43 sacks, & 21 interceptions. This season, Tech
ranks 19th, 7th, 10th, in those columns, respectively, with 31 sacks & 16 picks.
So, as you can see, the Hokies are still a major defensive force, altho down a
bit from a year ago. Offensively, Tech checks in at #107, compared to an 85th
ranking in '07. So again, down a bit. The QBing duo of Taylor & Glennon has
combined for a meager 1,639 yds & just 5 TDs, with 11 INTs. But the Hokies
have outrushed 8 of their last 10 foes, including a 285 yd edge over Maryland,
& a 150-45 edge over BostonCollege, in the ACC title game. Oh, & check yet
another outstanding TO year (+11). For the Bearcats of Cincinnati, who are
participating in their 7th bowl in the last 9 years, their standing in that category
is a far cry from '07, when they ranked 6th in the country with a +16 TO edge.
As we constantly remind our subscribers, Cincy has been a steady force: only
39 pts from a 33-3 ATS run, with a pair of those near misses coming by 4 & ½
pt in bowl games, the past 2 years. QB Pike, with 2,168 yds (63%, 18 TDs, 7
INTs) leads an adequate, if not spectacular "O". The Bearcats' only stumbles
came vs mighty Oklahoma, & in a 6 TO loss to UConn. Cincy, by a whisker.
PROPHECY: CINCINNATI 20 - Virginia Tech 14 RATING: 6
<!-- / message -->
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA = 4-1
SOUTH CAROLINA
There’s been no question that SEC teams have performed
better than those from any other conference in recent bowl action.
Over the past two seasons, SEC “bowlers” stand a noteworthy 12-
5 vs. the number. And trying to uphold the honor of the league in
Tampa’s Outback Bowl on New Year’s Day will be combative South
Carolina, an underdog against Big Ten rep Iowa. That underdog
role should appeal to the Gamecocks, a featured bowl Power
Underdog recommendation and 8-4-1 vs. the line their last 13 as
the “short” away from Columbia since 2005, when HC Steve
Spurrier arrived on the scene. As for the Hawkeyes, consider their
recent subpar performances as a favorite, just 7-15-2 vs. the
number their last 24 as chalk.
<!-- / message -->
SOUTH CAROLINA
There’s been no question that SEC teams have performed
better than those from any other conference in recent bowl action.
Over the past two seasons, SEC “bowlers” stand a noteworthy 12-
5 vs. the number. And trying to uphold the honor of the league in
Tampa’s Outback Bowl on New Year’s Day will be combative South
Carolina, an underdog against Big Ten rep Iowa. That underdog
role should appeal to the Gamecocks, a featured bowl Power
Underdog recommendation and 8-4-1 vs. the line their last 13 as
the “short” away from Columbia since 2005, when HC Steve
Spurrier arrived on the scene. As for the Hawkeyes, consider their
recent subpar performances as a favorite, just 7-15-2 vs. the
number their last 24 as chalk.
<!-- / message -->
THE SPORTS REPORTER = 13-9
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
OUTBACK BOWL
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
SOUTH CAROLINA over IOWA by 1
SOUTH CAROLINA, 21-20.
GATOR BOWL
Municipal Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
BEST BET
CLEMSON over NEBRASKA by 14
CLEMSON, 37-23.
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando, FL
GEORGIA over MICHIGAN STATE by 11
GEORGIA, 31-20.
ROSE BOWL
Rose Bowl – Pasadena, CA
USC over PENN STATE by 7
USC, 24-17
ORANGE BOWL
Dolphin Stadium – Miami, FL
VIRGINIA TECH over CINCINNATI by 1
VIRGINIA TECH, 20-19.
<!-- / message -->
THURSDAY, JANUARY 1
OUTBACK BOWL
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
SOUTH CAROLINA over IOWA by 1
SOUTH CAROLINA, 21-20.
GATOR BOWL
Municipal Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
BEST BET
CLEMSON over NEBRASKA by 14
CLEMSON, 37-23.
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Citrus Bowl Stadium – Orlando, FL
GEORGIA over MICHIGAN STATE by 11
GEORGIA, 31-20.
ROSE BOWL
Rose Bowl – Pasadena, CA
USC over PENN STATE by 7
USC, 24-17
ORANGE BOWL
Dolphin Stadium – Miami, FL
VIRGINIA TECH over CINCINNATI by 1
VIRGINIA TECH, 20-19.
<!-- / message -->
THE GOLD SHEET = 8-15
OUTBACK BOWL
IOWA (8-4) vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (7-5)
Thursday, January 1 Day at Tampa, FL (Grass Field)
South Carolina 23 - Iowa 17—In 1st-ever meeting between schools
making their 3rd bowl trip to Tampa, Iowa is on uptick, winning 5 of its last 6
games. But after two dismal losses to end the regular season, USC had a
players-only meeting to rekindle enthusiasm, and sees the New Year’s Day
bowl as chance for redemption. All-SEC TE Jared Cook says, “I can’t wait man;
this is a good chance to finally come out in our last game and prove ourselves
to the world.”
Iowa’s sporadic 6-4 soph QB Stanzi (58%, 13 TD, 7 ints.) reduced his
mistakes the last six weeks (only 3 ints.). But Carolina’s TOP priority is slowing
down Doak Award-winning RB Shonn Greene, who rushed for school-record
1,729 yds. & 17 TDs. Believe ‘Cocks aggressive stop unit (3.6 ypc, 129 ypg
rushing; 12th in total D)—spearheaded by havoc-wrecking LBs Eric Norwood
(66 tackles, 9 sacks, 15 TFL) & Casper Brinkley—is up to the challenge, even
with recent suspension of SS Emanuel Cook. After all, the only back to surpass
the century mark vs. d.c. Ellis Johnson’s unit was Florida’s unique RB/WR
Percy Harvin, who dashed for 187 yds., with 80 on a TD run.
The Hawkeyes’ stout defense (13 ppg) is particularly strong up the middle.
But mobile, 6-3 soph QB Stephen Garcia (54%, 6 TDs, 5 ints.; 173 YR)—
excited to perform for family and friends in hometown of Tampa—should hurt
youthful Hawkeye 2ndary (1 RS frosh, 2 sophs start) with roll-outs and playaction
to speedy sr. WR Kenny McKinley (school-record 201 career grabs) &
swift 6-5 TE Cook (35, 16-yd. avg.).
With the “Evil Genius” adding several “tricks” to an attack that’s produced 75
pts. last two bowls, more offensively-creative Carolina likely goes to 3-0 vs.
spread in the Outback Bowl (predecessor Lou Holtz defeated Ohio State in ‘00
& ‘01). Note, SEC “bowlers” 12-5 vs. spread L2Ys, ‘Cocks 8-4-1 last 13 as away
dog, and Hawkeyes only 7-15-2 last 24 as chalk.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)
GATOR BOWL
CLEMSON (7-5) vs. NEBRASKA (8-4)
Thursday, January 1 Day at Jacksonville, FL (Grass Field)
Nebraska 27 - Clemson 23—The 2008 campaign has been a stomachchurning
rollercoaster ride for Clemson, which opened the season as the
prohibitive favorite to win the ACC title, only to see longtime head coach Tommy
Bowden forced out after a disappointing 3-3 start. Still, fiery interim mentor
Dabo Swinney was able to drive the troubled team to 4 victories in its last 6
games, bagging both a profitable New Year’s Day bowl bid for the Tigers and a
lucrative multi-year contract for himself.
It’s tempting to jump on the burgeoning Clemson bandwagon. After all, the
athletic Tigers do have big-play RB C.J. Spiller and the superior defense (held
10 of last 11 foes to 21 points or fewer) in this matchup. But must not forget that
Nebraska finished strong too, its only loss in its last 6 games coming at topranked
Oklahoma. And the Huskers’ vulnerable stop unit is now facing an
uneven Clemson attack that bears little resemblance to the juggernaut Sooner
offense. So, prefer to side with tough-to-defend Nebraska (36 ppg & 458 ypg)
and its pinpoint sr. QB Joe Ganz (3332 YP on 69% completions in 2008), who
figures to mount many more sustained drives than poorly-protected Tiger
counterpart Cullen Harper.
(DNP...SR: Clemson 1-0)
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
MICHIGAN STATE (9-3) vs. GEORGIA (9-3)
Thursday, January 1 Day at Orlando, FL (Grass Field)
Georgia 31 - Michigan State 30–After a preseason No. 1 ranking and a
promising start, Georgia limps into the Citrus Bowl on a 1-7 pointspread run that
included SU losses to Alabama, Florida and Georgia Tech. After guiding MSU
back to the bowl lineup last season, HC Mark Dantonio’s Spartans took another
step by earning their first New Year’s bowl invitation since they beat Florida 37-
34 here on Jan. 1, 2000.
Bulldog QB Matt Stafford threw for 3209 yds. and 22 scores this season, but
he also threw all 9 of his ints. in the team’s last 8 games. Soph RB Knowshon
Moreno led the SEC in rushing with 1338 YR and scored 17 times, very similar
to his 2007 production as a RS frosh. While the offense held up its end of the
preseason hype, the defense did not. Georgia’s “D” allowed 26 ppg, ranking
64th in the country. That unit failed in the biggest games, yielding 45 ppg in the
3 losses, due at least in part to a DL that had problems rushing the passer and
was ordinary against the run (40th).
MSU relied on workhorse RB Javon Ringer (1590 YR; led the nation in
scoring), who’s rushed for more than 3000 yards in the last two seasons. The
formidable OL features four fifth-year seniors in the two-deep. Spartan QB
Brian Hoyer had a decent season while adjusting for the loss of his top targets
from 2007, throwing for 2235 yards. Hoyer needs to avoid the mistakes that
plagued him in the bowl last season against Boston College, when the Spartans
covered despite his 4 interceptions. Jr. Blair White (26 catches in the last 5
games), soph Mark Dell (returned from injury to catch 4 in finale vs. Penn
State), and RS frosh B.J. Cunningham (10 catches last 2 games) emerged as
quality receivers.
Respect Georgia’s SEC pedigree, but the Bulldog defense will be challenged
by Ringer and Hoyer. Look for Spartans to go down swinging in a shootout.
(DNP...SR: Georgia 1-0)
ROSE BOWL
PENN STATE (11-1) vs. SOUTHERN CAL (11-1)
Thursday, January 1 Day at Pasadena, CA (Grass Field
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 23 - Penn State 20–These two are alike in many ways, as both boast talented, efficient defenses and balanced offenses. And both
teams made just one slip on the road to a potential national title shot—USC early on against Oregon State, and Penn State by a field goal on the last play at Iowa
on Nov. 8. If not for those results, this match would’ve been played in Miami for all the marbles.
The Trojans led the nation in defense behind play of A-A LB Rey Maualuga & fellow sr. Brian Cushing. Penn State ranked 4th in scoring defense and 5th in total
“D,” led by the emergence of a pair of sophs in LB Navorro Bowman (led team with 98 tackles) and DE Aaron Maybin (4th in nation with 12 sacks).
USC QB Mark Sanchez threw for 2794 yards with 30 TD passes and just 10 ints., but 19 of the scores came in the first half of the season, as he cooled a bit
down the stretch. The Trojan RB-by-committee worked well, as Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson and C.J. Gable combined for 1892 YR and 19 TDs.
Penn State received similar, if less balanced, production from Evan Royster (1202 YR, 6.5 ypc & 12 TDs) and Stephon Green (521 YR & 5 TDs). Nittany Lion
sr. QB Daryll Clark (2319 YP, 17 TDs just 4 ints.) is coming off the best game of his career, a 341-yard, 4-TD performance against Michigan State. A key edge
Clark has is his ability to run. While Sanchez’ balky knee has precluded his scrambling (17 YR in his career), Clark has rushed for 14 TDs and 4 ypc in his career.
His escapability and power allowed him to be the third-leading rusher for Penn State this season despite Galen Hall’s “Spread HD” offense calling for a reduction
in his improvised scrambles this season.
The Trojan faithful were hoping for more this season (like a trip to Miami) rather than their 4th straight Rose Bowl appearance. Meanwhile, Penn State rewarded
venerable HC Joe Paterno with a 3-year extension based on the team’s unexpected return to the “Grandaddy” of the bowls. In a game pitting two similar teams,
look to take the points with the Nittany Lions. Penn State played a tougher schedule than USC, according to our ratings, and took better care of the ball. Trojans
will be tough to beat (just 3 SU losses after Oct. 31 in 8 years under Pete Carroll), but Paterno’s crew capable of making USC work hard for the win.
(DNP...SR: EVEN 4-4)
ORANGE BOWL
VIRGINIA TECH (9-4) vs. CINCINNATI (11-2)
Thursday, January 1 Night at Miami, FL (Grass Field)
*Cincinnati 28 - Virginia Tech 20—Intriguing battle between old guard and
new, as Virginia Tech is making its 16th consecutive bowl appearance (and
second straight trip to the Orange) under venerable mentor Frank Beamer. On
the other hand, it’s been a season of “firsts” for up-and-coming Cincinnati in
highly-regarded head coach Brian Kelly’s second year at the helm—first Big
East title, first 11-win campaign in school history, and the first “major” bowl bid
for the Bearcats in nearly six decades!
Although the Hokies (+11 TO margin vs. FBS foes), with their old-school
blend of rushing, defense & special teams, are unlikely to beat themselves, the
biggest fundamental advantage in this game clearly belongs to Cincinnati.
That’s because accurate jr. QB Tony Pike (63%, 18 TDP, 7 ints. in 2008)
possesses a trio of acrobatic, veteran WRs—sr. Dominick Goodman, jr.
Marshawn Gilyard & soph Marcus Barnett—who have combined for 4796 yards
& 44 TDs on 359 catches over the last two seasons, while Tech’s run-oriented
soph triggerman Tyrod Taylor and his frosh-laden receiving corps have hooked
up for scores only two times so far this year! And the Bearcats’ aerial edge
appears substantial enough to hold sway, especially with the Hokie defense
possibly comprised by injuries to star soph DE Jason Worlids (team-best 8
sacks & 18½ tackles for loss) & starting sr. LB Brett Warren, and Cincy’s
own stop unit (10 senior starters!) bolstered by the expected return of A-A
CB Mike Mickens.
(06-VIRGINIA TECH -27' 29-13...SR: EVEN 4-4)
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OUTBACK BOWL
IOWA (8-4) vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (7-5)
Thursday, January 1 Day at Tampa, FL (Grass Field)
South Carolina 23 - Iowa 17—In 1st-ever meeting between schools
making their 3rd bowl trip to Tampa, Iowa is on uptick, winning 5 of its last 6
games. But after two dismal losses to end the regular season, USC had a
players-only meeting to rekindle enthusiasm, and sees the New Year’s Day
bowl as chance for redemption. All-SEC TE Jared Cook says, “I can’t wait man;
this is a good chance to finally come out in our last game and prove ourselves
to the world.”
Iowa’s sporadic 6-4 soph QB Stanzi (58%, 13 TD, 7 ints.) reduced his
mistakes the last six weeks (only 3 ints.). But Carolina’s TOP priority is slowing
down Doak Award-winning RB Shonn Greene, who rushed for school-record
1,729 yds. & 17 TDs. Believe ‘Cocks aggressive stop unit (3.6 ypc, 129 ypg
rushing; 12th in total D)—spearheaded by havoc-wrecking LBs Eric Norwood
(66 tackles, 9 sacks, 15 TFL) & Casper Brinkley—is up to the challenge, even
with recent suspension of SS Emanuel Cook. After all, the only back to surpass
the century mark vs. d.c. Ellis Johnson’s unit was Florida’s unique RB/WR
Percy Harvin, who dashed for 187 yds., with 80 on a TD run.
The Hawkeyes’ stout defense (13 ppg) is particularly strong up the middle.
But mobile, 6-3 soph QB Stephen Garcia (54%, 6 TDs, 5 ints.; 173 YR)—
excited to perform for family and friends in hometown of Tampa—should hurt
youthful Hawkeye 2ndary (1 RS frosh, 2 sophs start) with roll-outs and playaction
to speedy sr. WR Kenny McKinley (school-record 201 career grabs) &
swift 6-5 TE Cook (35, 16-yd. avg.).
With the “Evil Genius” adding several “tricks” to an attack that’s produced 75
pts. last two bowls, more offensively-creative Carolina likely goes to 3-0 vs.
spread in the Outback Bowl (predecessor Lou Holtz defeated Ohio State in ‘00
& ‘01). Note, SEC “bowlers” 12-5 vs. spread L2Ys, ‘Cocks 8-4-1 last 13 as away
dog, and Hawkeyes only 7-15-2 last 24 as chalk.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)
GATOR BOWL
CLEMSON (7-5) vs. NEBRASKA (8-4)
Thursday, January 1 Day at Jacksonville, FL (Grass Field)
Nebraska 27 - Clemson 23—The 2008 campaign has been a stomachchurning
rollercoaster ride for Clemson, which opened the season as the
prohibitive favorite to win the ACC title, only to see longtime head coach Tommy
Bowden forced out after a disappointing 3-3 start. Still, fiery interim mentor
Dabo Swinney was able to drive the troubled team to 4 victories in its last 6
games, bagging both a profitable New Year’s Day bowl bid for the Tigers and a
lucrative multi-year contract for himself.
It’s tempting to jump on the burgeoning Clemson bandwagon. After all, the
athletic Tigers do have big-play RB C.J. Spiller and the superior defense (held
10 of last 11 foes to 21 points or fewer) in this matchup. But must not forget that
Nebraska finished strong too, its only loss in its last 6 games coming at topranked
Oklahoma. And the Huskers’ vulnerable stop unit is now facing an
uneven Clemson attack that bears little resemblance to the juggernaut Sooner
offense. So, prefer to side with tough-to-defend Nebraska (36 ppg & 458 ypg)
and its pinpoint sr. QB Joe Ganz (3332 YP on 69% completions in 2008), who
figures to mount many more sustained drives than poorly-protected Tiger
counterpart Cullen Harper.
(DNP...SR: Clemson 1-0)
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
MICHIGAN STATE (9-3) vs. GEORGIA (9-3)
Thursday, January 1 Day at Orlando, FL (Grass Field)
Georgia 31 - Michigan State 30–After a preseason No. 1 ranking and a
promising start, Georgia limps into the Citrus Bowl on a 1-7 pointspread run that
included SU losses to Alabama, Florida and Georgia Tech. After guiding MSU
back to the bowl lineup last season, HC Mark Dantonio’s Spartans took another
step by earning their first New Year’s bowl invitation since they beat Florida 37-
34 here on Jan. 1, 2000.
Bulldog QB Matt Stafford threw for 3209 yds. and 22 scores this season, but
he also threw all 9 of his ints. in the team’s last 8 games. Soph RB Knowshon
Moreno led the SEC in rushing with 1338 YR and scored 17 times, very similar
to his 2007 production as a RS frosh. While the offense held up its end of the
preseason hype, the defense did not. Georgia’s “D” allowed 26 ppg, ranking
64th in the country. That unit failed in the biggest games, yielding 45 ppg in the
3 losses, due at least in part to a DL that had problems rushing the passer and
was ordinary against the run (40th).
MSU relied on workhorse RB Javon Ringer (1590 YR; led the nation in
scoring), who’s rushed for more than 3000 yards in the last two seasons. The
formidable OL features four fifth-year seniors in the two-deep. Spartan QB
Brian Hoyer had a decent season while adjusting for the loss of his top targets
from 2007, throwing for 2235 yards. Hoyer needs to avoid the mistakes that
plagued him in the bowl last season against Boston College, when the Spartans
covered despite his 4 interceptions. Jr. Blair White (26 catches in the last 5
games), soph Mark Dell (returned from injury to catch 4 in finale vs. Penn
State), and RS frosh B.J. Cunningham (10 catches last 2 games) emerged as
quality receivers.
Respect Georgia’s SEC pedigree, but the Bulldog defense will be challenged
by Ringer and Hoyer. Look for Spartans to go down swinging in a shootout.
(DNP...SR: Georgia 1-0)
ROSE BOWL
PENN STATE (11-1) vs. SOUTHERN CAL (11-1)
Thursday, January 1 Day at Pasadena, CA (Grass Field
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 23 - Penn State 20–These two are alike in many ways, as both boast talented, efficient defenses and balanced offenses. And both
teams made just one slip on the road to a potential national title shot—USC early on against Oregon State, and Penn State by a field goal on the last play at Iowa
on Nov. 8. If not for those results, this match would’ve been played in Miami for all the marbles.
The Trojans led the nation in defense behind play of A-A LB Rey Maualuga & fellow sr. Brian Cushing. Penn State ranked 4th in scoring defense and 5th in total
“D,” led by the emergence of a pair of sophs in LB Navorro Bowman (led team with 98 tackles) and DE Aaron Maybin (4th in nation with 12 sacks).
USC QB Mark Sanchez threw for 2794 yards with 30 TD passes and just 10 ints., but 19 of the scores came in the first half of the season, as he cooled a bit
down the stretch. The Trojan RB-by-committee worked well, as Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson and C.J. Gable combined for 1892 YR and 19 TDs.
Penn State received similar, if less balanced, production from Evan Royster (1202 YR, 6.5 ypc & 12 TDs) and Stephon Green (521 YR & 5 TDs). Nittany Lion
sr. QB Daryll Clark (2319 YP, 17 TDs just 4 ints.) is coming off the best game of his career, a 341-yard, 4-TD performance against Michigan State. A key edge
Clark has is his ability to run. While Sanchez’ balky knee has precluded his scrambling (17 YR in his career), Clark has rushed for 14 TDs and 4 ypc in his career.
His escapability and power allowed him to be the third-leading rusher for Penn State this season despite Galen Hall’s “Spread HD” offense calling for a reduction
in his improvised scrambles this season.
The Trojan faithful were hoping for more this season (like a trip to Miami) rather than their 4th straight Rose Bowl appearance. Meanwhile, Penn State rewarded
venerable HC Joe Paterno with a 3-year extension based on the team’s unexpected return to the “Grandaddy” of the bowls. In a game pitting two similar teams,
look to take the points with the Nittany Lions. Penn State played a tougher schedule than USC, according to our ratings, and took better care of the ball. Trojans
will be tough to beat (just 3 SU losses after Oct. 31 in 8 years under Pete Carroll), but Paterno’s crew capable of making USC work hard for the win.
(DNP...SR: EVEN 4-4)
ORANGE BOWL
VIRGINIA TECH (9-4) vs. CINCINNATI (11-2)
Thursday, January 1 Night at Miami, FL (Grass Field)
*Cincinnati 28 - Virginia Tech 20—Intriguing battle between old guard and
new, as Virginia Tech is making its 16th consecutive bowl appearance (and
second straight trip to the Orange) under venerable mentor Frank Beamer. On
the other hand, it’s been a season of “firsts” for up-and-coming Cincinnati in
highly-regarded head coach Brian Kelly’s second year at the helm—first Big
East title, first 11-win campaign in school history, and the first “major” bowl bid
for the Bearcats in nearly six decades!
Although the Hokies (+11 TO margin vs. FBS foes), with their old-school
blend of rushing, defense & special teams, are unlikely to beat themselves, the
biggest fundamental advantage in this game clearly belongs to Cincinnati.
That’s because accurate jr. QB Tony Pike (63%, 18 TDP, 7 ints. in 2008)
possesses a trio of acrobatic, veteran WRs—sr. Dominick Goodman, jr.
Marshawn Gilyard & soph Marcus Barnett—who have combined for 4796 yards
& 44 TDs on 359 catches over the last two seasons, while Tech’s run-oriented
soph triggerman Tyrod Taylor and his frosh-laden receiving corps have hooked
up for scores only two times so far this year! And the Bearcats’ aerial edge
appears substantial enough to hold sway, especially with the Hokie defense
possibly comprised by injuries to star soph DE Jason Worlids (team-best 8
sacks & 18½ tackles for loss) & starting sr. LB Brett Warren, and Cincy’s
own stop unit (10 senior starters!) bolstered by the expected return of A-A
CB Mike Mickens.
(06-VIRGINIA TECH -27' 29-13...SR: EVEN 4-4)
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CKO = 3-4
10 PENN STATE over *Southern Cal
Late Score Forecast:
PENN STATE 23 - *Southern Cal 20
(Thursday, January 1, 2009)
Penn State has the tools necessary to pull off an upset of USC in Trojans' own back yard. Nittany Lion defensive numbers are very similar to those of USC's No. 1-ranked stop unit, and Penn State played a stronger schedule according to TGS ratings. Offensively, Penn State is equal to the Trojans in production and has a key edge in the mobility of athletic QB Daryll Clark, who's rushed for 14 TDs and a shade less than 4 ypc in his career. Contrast Clark's escapability, which resulted in Penn State allowing the 8th-fewest sacks in the country, with USC's pocket-passing, gimpy-kneed Mark Sanchez, who rarely runs by choice, almost never by design. Only two players in the country had more sacks than Nittany Lion soph DE Aaron Maybin, and the Penn State defense is capable of shutting down even the best rush attacks (held Wisconsin's P.J. Hill to 58 YR; Michigan State's Ringer to 42). This one figures to be a knock-down, drag-out affair decided by a field goal.
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10 PENN STATE over *Southern Cal
Late Score Forecast:
PENN STATE 23 - *Southern Cal 20
(Thursday, January 1, 2009)
Penn State has the tools necessary to pull off an upset of USC in Trojans' own back yard. Nittany Lion defensive numbers are very similar to those of USC's No. 1-ranked stop unit, and Penn State played a stronger schedule according to TGS ratings. Offensively, Penn State is equal to the Trojans in production and has a key edge in the mobility of athletic QB Daryll Clark, who's rushed for 14 TDs and a shade less than 4 ypc in his career. Contrast Clark's escapability, which resulted in Penn State allowing the 8th-fewest sacks in the country, with USC's pocket-passing, gimpy-kneed Mark Sanchez, who rarely runs by choice, almost never by design. Only two players in the country had more sacks than Nittany Lion soph DE Aaron Maybin, and the Penn State defense is capable of shutting down even the best rush attacks (held Wisconsin's P.J. Hill to 58 YR; Michigan State's Ringer to 42). This one figures to be a knock-down, drag-out affair decided by a field goal.
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