NCAA Tournament Plays

[seattlecowboy]

First NCAA tournament play for Thursday


No. 11 seeds favored by 2 points or more are 7-1 SU and ATS (All seven wins by 7 points or more) The only loss: No. 11 Texas to No. 6 Butler in 2015 (56-48)

When favored by MORE THAN 2 points , No. 11 seeds are 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS. ( all winning by 7 points or more)

Notable: #11 seed Michigan opened as a -2.5 favorite over #6 seed CSU.

Play: Michigan -2.5

81% Average System plays NCAA Tournament 1st Round the last few years

Play all 1st Half Unders for seeds 4 through 13

Do not play seeds 1,2,3 as they can have too much talent and can push the total over

Expect at worse to go 15-7 and at best maybe 18-4 but probably more so 16-6 or 17-5 with these.

Will be two more plays added to this after the play in games.

Play in Games:

Indiana/Wyoming Under 62

Notre Dame/Rutgers Under 62

Thursday/Friday

New Mexico St./UConn Under 61.5

Vermont/Arkansas Under 65.5

Iowa/Richmond Under 71

Providence/SDSU Under 70.5

Marquette/NC Under 72

Creighton/SDSU Under 56

Michigan/CSU Under 65.5

Murray St./San Fran Under 64.5

Boise St./Memphis Under 62.5

Akron/UCLA Under 60

MSU/Davidson Under 66

Miami Fla/USC Under 65.5

Iowa St./LSU Under 59.5

Texas/Va Tech Under 57.5

Houston/UAB Under 63.5

Illinois/Chattanooga Under 63.5

Ohio St./Loyola Chi. Under 62

Seton Hall/TCU Under 61

 

[indiana]

S/C.Boy....BOL with all your action buddy....
have a great tourney.....indy

 

[Loves2kickass]

I like Michigan

 

[BigTonyC]

I love these. Seems like I remember something about Kempon rankings. Do you recall?

 

[Biggins]

Had Indiana first half under was walk in the park. Best of luck going forward long way to go And I’m loving it. It’s the hap happiest time of the year

 

[seattlecowboy]

I love these. Seems like I remember something about Kempon rankings. Do you recall?

These aren’t anything to do with Kenpom. I have seen Kenpom systems in the past but I don’t remember what exactly they are.

I remember a long ways back some guys would see how much Kenpom picked a team to win by and then looked at the Vegas line and if Vegas line was 3 points different or more they would go with the Vegas line as they figured Vegas knows more and it did pretty well. That was for the whole season though. Not just NCAA tourney. I haven’t checked lately to see how that system has done.

 

[BeetleMania]

Good job, SCowboy!

 

[seattlecowboy]

Heads up….

That Michigan line is down to -1.5 at most places I see. So that will not be a play for myself unless it closes at -2 or higher. So have to watch it until closer to game time.

 

[VegasKnows]

Michigan has guard DeVonte Jones out for concussion protocol. He took an elbow to the head in practice.

 

[MUFDIVR]

Great write up. Best of luck

 

[seattlecowboy]

Todd Golden just announced that San Francisco big man Yauhen Massalski will not play tomorrow after reinjuring his knee in practice on Monday.

Massalski was a first-team all-WCC selection this year. Averaged 13.5 points, 9.4 boards and 2.2 blocks per game. Major loss.

Tomorrow

Thursday Play:

Murray St. -2 -108

7 seeds have a great record against 10 seeds in the tournament as well.

 

[seattlecowboy]

61% of tickets on Rutgers
91% of cash on Rutgers

Too much for an NCAA Tourney game.

Play: Notre Dame +1 -108

 

[seattlecowboy]

Higher seeds in the NCAA Tournament that force at least 16 turnovers per game are 44-22-1 ATS (66.7%) in the last 15-plus years and 13-1-1 ATS in the last 15 games

There are three higher seeds that force at least 16 turnovers per game in the first round of the NCAA Tournament: UAB (vs. Houston), Georgia State (vs. Gonzaga) and Iowa State (vs. LSU).

Play:

Georgia St. +23 -108

Iowa St. +4 -108

UAB +8.5 -108

 

[seattlecowboy]

Tomorrows 1st Half Under List:


Thursday 1st Half Unders:

New Mexico St./UConn Under 61.5

Vermont/Arkansas Under 65.5

Iowa/Richmond Under 71

Providence/SDSU Under 70.5

Marquette/NC Under 72

Creighton/SDSU Under 56

Michigan/CSU Under 65.5

Murray St./San Fran Under 64.5

Boise St./Memphis Under 62.5

Akron/UCLA Under 60

Indiana/St. Mary’s Under 59

 

[HacheMan]

Good luck with the action cowboy

 

[EZrider]

BOL

 

['EERfan]

Best of luck this weekend!

 

[tonyd85]

Can you tell us what system this?
I love 1st H Unders myself...I'm familiar with "asiandude" and then used to have another version I used which was in some context (I have written down somewhere don't remember exact) if the total amount of money on the U for the game was 40%< on the total and the Road team is not favored by -2> and the HT has a winning record of 500% < its play U 1st H and ideally you would want it to be at least 70

 

[seattlecowboy]

Can you tell us what system this?
I love 1st H Unders myself...I'm familiar with "asiandude" and then used to have another version I used which was in some context (I have written down somewhere don't remember exact) if the total amount of money on the U for the game was 40%< on the total and the Road team is not favored by -2> and the HT has a winning record of 500% < its play U 1st H and ideally you would want it to be at least 70

It’s just a system for 1st round games in the NCAA tournament that has hit at a very very high rate the last few years.

You play all first half Unders in the first round that involve seeds 4 through 13.

You do not play games with seeds 1,2 or 3 involved as there can be enough of a talent discrepancy that the 1,2 and 3 seeds can push the total over.

Reasons: Neutral site games so takes some time for players to get going and get shots to go down as often compared to one of the teams playing at home or conference teams being as familiar with certain courts on the road.

Also it is the biggest game of the year so far for both teams as it is single elimination tournament and their first game in it. So first game jitters can cause more mistakes and more misses. Teams will also be locked in on defense even more so and be taking it possession by possession.
Because of these things this system has worked well.

Let’s hope it continues this year.

 

[tonyd85]

It’s just a system for 1st round games in the NCAA tournament that has hit at a very very high rate the last few years.

You play all first half Unders in the first round that involve seeds 4 through 13.

You do not play games with seeds 1,2 or 3 involved as there can be enough of a talent discrepancy that the 1,2 and 3 seeds can push the total over.

Reasons: Neutral site games so takes some time for players to get going and get shots to go down as often compared to one of the teams playing at home or conference teams being as familiar with certain courts on the road.

Also it is the biggest game of the year so far for both teams as it is single elimination tournament and their first game in it. So first game jitters can cause more mistakes and more misses. Teams will also be locked in on defense even more so and be taking it possession by possession.
Because of these things this system has worked well.

Let’s hope it continues this year.

Appreciate it! I