NCAA MEN'S BASKETBALL NOTES, NEWS OPINIONS AND BEST BETS THRU MARCH MADNESS !

[CNOTES]

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
VILL at HALL	06:30 PM	VILL +1.5 O 131.5	+500 +500
SFPA at CCSU	07:00 PM	CCSU -14.0 O 136.0	+500 +500
RICE at CHAR	07:00 PM	CHAR -7.5 O 133.5	+500 +500
STJOE at RICH	07:00 PM	RICH -5.5 U 145.0	+500 +500
GMU at URI	07:00 PM	GMU -3.0 U 142.0	+500 +500
WAG at SH	07:00 PM	SH -5.5 U 133.0	+500 +500
SBON at GW	07:00 PM	SBON -7.5 O 145.5	+500 +500
TCU at WVU	07:00 PM	TCU -5.0 U 152.5	+500 +500
BC at MIA	07:00 PM	MIA -6.0 U 152.0	+500 +500
NW at MSU	07:00 PM	NW +9.0 U 135.0	+500 +500
LSU at ARK	07:00 PM	LSU +4.0 O 155.0	+500 +500
L-IL at DAV	07:00 PM	L-IL +1.0 O 137.0	+500 +500
TENN at SCAR	07:00 PM	TENN -5.5 U 139.5	+500 +500
HOU at UCF	07:00 PM	UCF +8.5 U 130.5	+500 +500
LIU at MW	07:00 PM	LIU +15.0 U 139.0	+500 +500
FOR at MASS	07:30 PM	FOR +9.5 O 145.0	+500 +500
XAV at BUT	07:30 PM	XAV +3.0 O 156.0	+500 +500
USI at TNST	07:30 PM	TNST -3.5 U 144.0	+500 +500
MCNS at UNO	08:00 PM	UNO +17.5 U 154.0	+500 +500
FAU at UNT	08:00 PM	UNT +2.0 U 137.0	+500 +500
HCU at LAM	08:00 PM	HCU +16.5 O 156.5	+500 +500
RAD at SCUS	08:00 PM	SCUS +5.0 O 140.0	+500 +500
ECU at SMU	08:00 PM	SMU -12.0 U 141.5	+500 +500
CONN at MARQ	08:30 PM	MARQ +5.5 U 152.5	+500 +500
NWST at TAMCOM	08:30 PM	TAMCOM -3.0 U 139.0	+500 +500
IW at AMCC	08:30 PM	AMCC -14.0 U 148.0	+500 +500
BYU at ISU	09:00 PM	BYU +6.5 U 146.0	+500 +500
MSST at TAM	09:00 PM	TAM -2.5 O 140.0	+500 +500
IND at MINN	09:00 PM	IND +5.5 O 149.0	+500 +500
VAN at UK	09:00 PM	UK -17.5 U 159.5	+500 +500
USU at SJSU	09:30 PM	USU -11.0 U 146.0	+500 +500
EIU at SIUE	10:00 PM	SIUE -2.5 U 142.5	+500 +500
FRES at UNM	10:30 PM	UNM -18.0 U 152.0	+500 +500
CSN at HAW	11:59 PM	HAW -6.5 U 146.0	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
— Hawks 112, Cavaliers 101- Atlanta outscored Cavs 25-12 in 4th quarter.
— Grizzlies 115, 76ers 109- Memphis outscored Sixers 34-16 in 4th quarter.
— Clippers 122, Rockets 116- Houston led 57-44 at halftime.
— Bulls 119, Jazz 117- DeRozan scored 29 points, had 7 assists
— Warriors 125, Bucks 90- Curry scored 29 points, was 6-10 on the arc.
— Kings 130, Lakers 120- Fox scored 44 points, had four assists.

Quote of the Day
“That’s the culture — to show up every day and be ready to do whatever we can to win a game. And that culture is built over a period of time of people holding each other accountable to that standard and that culture. That’s what we’re working on now.”
Blue Jays’ SS Bo Bichette

Thursday’s quiz
In the history of the Oakland A’s (since 1968), who has knocked in the most runs?

Wednesday’s quiz
John Havlicek has scored the most points (26,395) in Boston Celtics’ history.

Tuesday’s quiz
Russell Wilson played college football at NC State, Wisconsin.

****************************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….​

— Underrated Fact of the Day: Since 1976, Michigan State has had only TWO basketball coaches, Jud Heathcote and Tom Izzo. Two coaches in 48 years.
By way of comparison, over the last 10 years, UNLV has had five coaches, and they had winning seasons in eight of those ten years.

— Iowa State 68, BYU 63
BYU led this game 38-27 at halftime.
Cyclones won 8 of last 9 games; they went undefeated at home this season.
Iowa State is 24-6/13-4 this year; three years ago, they went 0-18 in Big X.

— Texas A&M 75, Mississippi State 69
A&M came into game shooting 26.7% on arc (#361); they were 8-21 in this game, an improvement.

— Tennessee 66, South Carolina 59
Vols win the outright SEC regular season title for first time since 2008.
Dalton Knecht scored 26 points, had one assist; his job is to score points.
Knecht played at Northern Colorado the last two years; Bears went 34-36 in those two years, 19-19 in Big Sky games.
Plus, they’re 19-12/12-6 this season, without Knecht. That doesn’t seem possible.

— Seton Hall 66, Villanova 56
Pirates played only two subs, for total of 21:00.
Seton Hall did a lot here to get themselves off the bubble.
Villanova shot 32.8% from floor; they still have work to do, to make NCAA’s.

— Florida Atlantic 80, North Texas 76
Owls led 12-0 early, but were down 7 early in 2nd half.
FAU is 23-7/13-4; they shot 56.2% inside arc.

— LeMoyne 82, FDU 61- Dolphins win a conference tournament game in their first season as a Division I team.

— Word of the Day: Apopleptic- infuriated, overcome with anger.

— Magic 119, Wizards 109
Orlando is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games.
Washington has lost 16 games in a row (2-6 ATS in last eight)

— Washington Commanders signed TE Zach Ertz for one year, $5M; Ertz played for Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona. Kingsbury is the Commanders’ new offensive coordinator.

— Buffalo Bills saved $47M in cap space with a flurry of roster moves:
They cut six players, one of whom won’t be cut until after June 1st.
They restructured two other contracts, including LB Von Miller’s.
Bills also signed QB Mitch Trubisky to back up Josh Allen.
After the flurry of moves, Buffalo is now only $1,177,381 over the salary cap.

— Baseball stuff:
Astros’ P Justin Verlander (shoulder) will open the season on IL
Rockies OF Nolan Jones left Wednesday’s game (back spasms)
Padres 2B Ha-Seong Kim is out until Friday (back spasms)
MRI on Orioles’ CF Cedric Mullins’ hamstring came back negative.
A’s SS Nick Allen has a mild back strain.
Cubs’ 3B Nick Madrigal had an MRI on his hamstring

— Famous birthdays on March 7th:
Lynn Swann, 72
Bryan Cranston, 69
Tommy Kramer, 69
Joe Carter, 64
Willie (Flipper) Anderson, 59
Ricky Proehl, 56
Jenna Fischer, 50
Michael Harris, 23

— I try to listen to podcasts about fantasy baseball, to learn things that can make my team better; this week, one of the guys on a podcast said he has teams in 12 different leagues.
That would be overwhelming to me, to keep track of 12 different teams. As it is, I probably spend too much time tracking my one team, can’t imagine doing it with 11 more.

— How favorites/underdogs are faring in conference tournaments:
A-SUN underdogs 5-1 ATS
Big South favorites 1-0 ATS
Horizon favorites 2-1 ATS
NEC underdogs 3-1 ATS
OVC favorites 2-0 ATS
Patriot favorites 1-1 ATS

So far this month, underdogs are 10-8 ATS in conference tournaments.

 

[Udog]

 

[Udog]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 7

Thursday’s 5 interesting games
Arizona (-9.5) @ UCLA
Arizona (23-6, 14-4)
KenPom rating: 4
Tempo: 15
Experience: 84
Continuity: 213
Arizona won nine of its last ten games.
Wildcats are 5-3 SU/4-3 ATS as Pac-12 road favorites.
Arizona has #19 eFG% in the country.
Wildcats are 11-2 against teams ranked outside top 100.


UCLA (14-15, 9-9)
KenPom rating: 79
Tempo: 361
Experience: 121
Continuity: 223
UCLA lost its last four games, scoring 66.8 ppg.
Bruins are 4-4 SU/3-0 ATS as Pac-12 home dogs.
UCLA has the #333 eFG% in country.
Bruins are 1-7 vs teams ranked in top 50.


UCLA (+17) lost 77-71 at Arizona January 20.
Arizona won five of last six series games.
Wildcats lost their last six visits to Pauley Pavilion.
Pac-12 home underdogs of 7+ points are 5-2 ATS


Cal-Davis @ Cal-San Diego (-7.5)
Cal-Davis (17-12, 12-6)
KenPom rating: 187
Tempo: 177
Experience: 40
Continuity: 4
Cal-Davis lost four of its last six games.
Aggies are 5-3 SU/3-1 ATS as Big West road dogs.
Cal-Davis is 6-5 in games decided by 7 or less points.
Aggies are 3-9 vs teams ranked in top 200.


Cal-San Diego (20-10, 14-4)
KenPom rating: 105
Tempo: 290
Experience: 216
Continuity: 130
UCSD won five of its last six games.
Tritons are 8-0 SU/5-2 ATS as Big West home favorites.
42.3% of their shots are 3’s (#53); they’re shooting 34.2% (#164)
Tritons are 9-4 vs teams ranked in top 200.


Cal-San Diego (+2.5) won 92-59 at Cal-Davis January 27.
UCSD outscored Davis 54-23 in second half of that game.
Davis won four of six series games.
Aggies won two of their three visits to UCSD.
Big West home favorites of 7+ points are 12-15 ATS.


Horizon Tournament (campus sites)
Fort Wayne @ Oakland (-3.5)
Fort Wayne (21-11, 12-9)
KenPom rating: 157
Tempo: 36
Experience: 319
Continuity: 298
Fort Wayne won five of its last six games.
Mastodons are 5-2 ATS as Horizon underdogs.
Fort Wayne forces turnovers 22.2% of time (#12)
Mastodons are 5-5 vs teams in the top 200.
Fort Wayne went WL in 4 of last 5 conference tourneys.
Mastodons played four guys 30:00+ in Tuesday’s win.


Oakland (20-11, 15-5)
KenPom rating: 140
Tempo: 242
Experience: 112
Continuity: 112
Oakland won eight of its last ten games.
Grizzlies are 8-2 SU/3-7 ATS as Horizon home favorites.
Oakland has #204 eFG% defense in country.
Grizzlies are 6-9 vs teams in the top 200.
Last 7 years, Oakland is 5-2 in first Horizon tourney game.


Road team won both series games this season.
Fort Wayne won four of last five meetings.
Mastodons won their last three visits to Oakland.


Cleveland State @ Youngstown State (-3.5)
Cleveland State (19-13, 11-9)
KenPom rating: 208
Tempo: 206
Experience: 153
Continuity: 80
Cleveland State won three of its last four games.
Vikings are 4-6 SU/2-4 ATS as Horizon road dogs.
Cleveland State is #358 team on defensive boards.
Vikings are 8-8 vs teams in the top 200.
Last 3+ years, Cleveland State is 7-2 in Horizon tourney.
Vikings had a stress-free win over IUPUI Tuesday.


Youngstown State (22-9, 14-6)
KenPom rating: 129
Tempo: 92
Experience: 16
Continuity: 309
Youngstown won four of its last five games.
Penguins are 8-2 SU/5-5 ATS as Horizon home favorites.
Youngstown is #33 team on offensive boards.
Penguins are 13-2 vs teams outside the top 200.
Youngstown went WL in this tournament the last 4 years.


Home teams won both meetings TY, last five overall.
Vikings lost their last two visits to Youngstown.


Northern Kentucky @ Wright State (-7.5)
Northern Kentucky (17-14, 12-8)
KenPom rating: 188
Tempo: 145
Experience: 181
Continuity: 193
Northern Kentucky won six of its last eight games.
Norse are 5-5 SU/5-2 ATS as Horizon road dogs.
Opponents are shooting 54.6% inside arc (#334)
NKU is 3-11 vs teams ranked in the top 200.
NKU won Horizon tourney 3 of last 6 years.


Wright State (18-13, 13-7)
KenPom rating: 155
Tempo: 23
Experience: 26
Continuity: 52
Wright State won nine of its last 12 games.
Raiders are 6-4 SU/4-6 ATS as Horizon home faves.
Wright State has #2 eFG% in country.
Wright State has #351 eFG% defense in country.
Raiders are 6-10 vs teams ranked in the top 200.
Last two years, Wright State is 4-1 in Horizon tourney.


Wright State won both series games TY, 85-78/94-88.
Raiders won four of last five meetings vs NKU.

 

[Udog]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Thursday, March 7

 

[Udog]

NCAAB

Thursday, March 7

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Trend Report
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[Udog]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 7

 

[Udog]

 

[Udog]

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, MARCH 7​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
PAC at PEPP	05:30 PM	PAC +9.5 O 150.5	+500 +500
TXST at USM	06:00 PM	USM -2.5 U 136.0	+500 +500
MRST at QUIN	07:00 PM	QUIN -4.5 O 139.5	+500 +500
NIAG at SIE	07:00 PM	NIAG -7.5 O 135.5	+500 +500
CAN at FAIR	07:00 PM	CAN +8.5 O 142.5	+500 +500
IONA at MAN	07:00 PM	MAN +8.5 U 146.0	+500 +500
UAB at TEM	07:00 PM	UAB -7.5 U 142.5	+500 +500
LEH at LAF	07:00 PM	LEH -2.5 U 137.0	+500 +500
RUTG at WIS	07:00 PM	RUTG +10.0 U 132.5	+500 +500
BUCK at AMER	07:00 PM	BUCK +6.0 U 128.5	+500 +500
CLEVST at YSU	07:00 PM	CLEVST +9.5 O 149.5	+500 +500
HC at COLG	07:00 PM	COLG -19.5 U 142.0	+500 +500
JAC at STET	07:00 PM	STET -5.5 O 135.5	+500 +500
PFW at OAK	07:00 PM	OAK -4.5 O 146.5	+500 +500
NAVY at BU	07:00 PM	BU -3.5 U 132.5	+500 +500
EVAN at ILST	07:00 PM	ILST -3.5 U 135.5	+500 +500
COPP at MORG	07:30 PM	MORG -9.0 U 142.0	+500 +500
SCST at NCCU	07:30 PM	NCCU -8.0 O 142.5	+500 +500
TNST at WIU	07:30 PM	TNST +3.0 O 132.5	+500 +500
SUU at SFA	07:30 PM	SFA -8.0 U 147.0	+500 +500
UTECH at UTRGV	07:30 PM	UTRGV +5.0 U 150.0	+500 +500
DSU at UMES	08:00 PM	DSU -4.0 O 133.5	+500 +500
SPU at RID	08:00 PM	SPU +1.0 O 135.0	+500 +500
NORAL at PEAY	08:00 PM	PEAY -4.0 U 146.5	+500 +500
NKU at WRST	08:00 PM	WRST -7.0 O 161.5	+500 +500
UVU at TST	08:00 PM	TST -6.5 U 140.5	+500 +500
CALBA at UTA	08:00 PM	UTA -7.0 U 138.0	+500 +500
SEA at ACU	08:00 PM	SEA -2.0 U 140.5	+500 +500
MRSH at GSU	08:30 PM	GSU -1.0 U 151.5	+500 +500
SOU at ALST	08:30 PM	SOU +1.0 U 132.5	+500 +500
MVSU at ALCN	08:30 PM	MVSU +18.0 U 133.0	+500 +500
ARPB at JKST	08:30 PM	ARPB +8.5 O 154.0	+500 +500
NICH at SELA	08:30 PM	NICH +3.5 O 139.5	+500 +500
GRAM at AAMU	08:30 PM	GRAM -2.5 U 132.0	+500 +500
HOW at NORF	09:00 PM	NORF -5.0 O 146.0	+500 +500
FIU at UTEP	09:00 PM	UTEP -8.5 U 145.5	+500 +500
COLO at ORE	09:00 PM	ORE -3.5 U 151.5	+500 +500
WASH at WSU	09:00 PM	WSU -6.5 U 149.5	+500 +500
MILW at WIGB	09:00 PM	WIGB -1.5	+500
SHSU at LT	09:00 PM	SHSU +9.0 O 136.5	+500 +500
ARIZ at UCLA	09:30 PM	UCLA +9.0 O 148.0	+500 +500
UIC at SIU	09:30 PM	UIC +5.5 O 134.5	+500 +500
UCSB at LBSU	10:00 PM	LBSU -4.5 O 153.5	+500 +500
CP at UCI	10:00 PM	CP +23.5 U 138.5	+500 +500
SIUE at MORE	10:00 PM	SIUE +10.0 O 136.0	+500 +500
CSF at UCRV	10:00 PM	CSF +3.0 O 137.0	+500 +500
UCD at UCSD	10:00 PM	UCD +7.0 O 140.5	+500 +500
UTAH at ORST	11:00 PM	UTAH -7.0 U 143.0	+500 +500
ASU at USC	11:00 PM	ASU +9.5 O 145.5	+500 +500
CAL at STAN	11:00 PM	STAN -4.0 O 154.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

Two Dens for Friday: Den #1, wrapping up a busy Thursday

— Horizon League
Three of the four higher seeds got upset Thursday:
Oakland 75, Fort Wayne 65- Grizzlies were only top seed to advance.
Northern Kentucky 99, Wright State 97 OT
Wright State led by 17 in first half.
Wright State led by 3 with 0:04.4 left, fouled intentionally, but NKU got the rebound and scored at the buzzer to force overtime.
Over was 23-7 in Wright State games this season.
Cleveland State 82, Youngstown State 70
Penguins were only 5-31 on the arc.
Youngstown was favored by 10.5 points.
Milwaukee 95, Green Bay 84
Panthers shot 59.6% inside arc, were 27-35 on foul line.
Green Bay lost five of last six games, after a 17-9 start.
Green Bay is 18-14, after going 16-71 the last three years, but this one hurts.
Semi-finals in Horizon aren’t until Monday, so the survivors get to rest up.

— Missouri Valley
Ill-Chicago 84, Southern Illinois 82, 2OTs
#11-seed UIC blew a 41-27 halftime lead, but pulls a big upset here.
Three Flames played 46:00+; they play #3-seed Bradley Friday.

— West Coast
Pepperdine 102, Pacific 43
Waves led this game 56-9 at halftime, 56. to. 9.
Both coaches in this game have been fired, although Pepperdine coach Romar is finishing the season.

— Pac-12
Arizona 88, UCLA 65
Last time these teams will play as conference rivals.
Arizona led 44-27 at the half; they’ve won 10 of their last 11 games.
UCLA lost its last five games; they’ve got the #333 eFG% in country.
Very difficult for me to process that the Pac-12 won’t exist after this season. The greedy, over-educated morons who run college sports are killing the Golden Goose.
Colorado 79, Oregon 75
Ducks ran out to an early 18-6 lead.
Colorado has won five in a row; they start four seniors. Hmmm..……

Big West
Cal-Irvine 82, Cal Poly 68- Anteaters clinch the regular season title.
UCSB 76, Long Beach State 74- Long Beach shot 5-19 on the arc, 13-22 on the line and lost by a basket, at home; they’ve lost four games in a row.

— Movie of the Day: The Great Santini (1979)- A Marine pilot who is aggressively competitive moves his family to South Carolina, where his teenage son struggles to win his approval.
Robert Duvall plays the father, Michael O’Keefe the son, Blythe Danner the mother; Duvall’s character is cringeworthy.; this movie is disturbing in more ways than one, but it is a good movie.
This movie was made in 1979; Michael O’Keefe’s next acting job was the next year, playing Danny Noonan in the classic movie Caddyshack. Two very different movies.

— Last three years, a #15-seed has upset a #2-seed in the first round- #2-seeds are 9-3 the last three years; in the 41 years before that, #2-seeds were 157-7 in the first round

— Under is 15-2 in Milwaukee games since Doc Rivers became the Bucks’ coach.

— Two NFL teams that have never picked first in an NFL Draft:
Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks……Baltimore Ravens haven’t either, but they did back when they were in Cleveland, the original Cleveland Browns.

— Famous birthdays on March 8th:
Dick Allen, 72
Jim Rice, 71
Kenny Smith, 59
Hines Ward, 48
James Van Der Beek, 47

— Detroit Mercy fired basketball coach Mike Davis Thursday, after a 1-31 disaster of a season; 22 years ago, Davis’ Indiana team lost the national title game to Maryland.
Davis has been a head coach for 24 years; coached the Hoosiers for six years, UAB for six years, Texas Southern for six more (he made the NCAA’s four times there), and then the last six for the Titans.

— New Mexico has a 6-5 guard, Jemarl Baker, who has had an interesting career:
2018-19- Kentucky
2019-21- Arizona
2021-23- Fresno State
2023-24- New Mexico
He already has two college degrees, including a Masters Degree. Some day he will write a very interesting book.

— In 2018, Virginia became the first #1-seed to lose a first round NCAA Tourney game; the next year, they won the national title.
Last year, Purdue became the 2nd #1-seed to lose a first round NCAA Tourney game; think they can match Virginia and win a national title the next year?
Big 14 hasn’t won a national title since Michigan State in 2000, so there’s that, too.

— How favorites/underdogs are faring in conference tournaments:
A-SUN underdogs 6-2 ATS
Big South favorites 1-0 ATS
Horizon underdogs 4-3 ATS
MVC underdogs 3-1 ATS

NEC underdogs 3-1 ATS
OVC favorites 3-1 ATS
Patriot favorites 4-2 ATS
Sun Belt underdogs 4-2 ATS
WCC favorites 1-0 ATS

So far this month, underdogs are 23-18 ATS in conference tournaments.

****************************************

Friday’s 2nd List: NBA trends………​

NBA trends (thru Wednesday, March 6)

Hawks (28-34):
— 4-3 SU since All-Star Game
— 7-19 ATS as a home favorite
— under 3-0 last three home games
— 4-7 ATS if they played night before.

Celtics (48-13):
— won 11 of last 12 games SU (7-1 ATS last eight)
— 4-0 ATS last four as a home favorite.
— under 4-1 last five games.
— 5-4 ATS if they played night before.

Nets (25-37):
— lost three of their last four games.
— 11-5 ATS as home favorite.
— 3-14 ATS last 17 road games.
— under 5-0 last five road games
— 3-7 ATS if they played night before.

Hornets (15-47):
— lost last five games SU; 9-5 ATS last 14 games.
— 5-2 ATS last seven as a home underdog.
— under 9-1 last ten games.
— 6-5 ATS if they played night before.

Bulls (30-32)
— 4-2 SU last six games, 12-8 ATS last 20 games.
— 6-4 ATS as a home dog, 6-3 as road favorite.
— under 3-1 last four road games.
— 3-7 ATS on first night of back/back.

Cavaliers (40-22):
— 4-5 SU since All-Star break.
— 1-6 ATS last seven as a home favorite.
— under 4-0 last four games.
— 2-7 ATS if they played the night before.

Mavericks (34-28):
— 2-5 SU since All-Star break.
— 2-6 ATS last 8 as as home favorites, 10-3 as road faves.
— over 4-1 last five games.
— 7-3 ATS if they played night before.

Nuggets (42-20):
— 6-1 SU since All-Star break.
— 2-5 ATS last 7 as as home favorites, 9-13 as road faves.
— under 7-2-1 last ten home games.
— 3-9 ATS if they played night before.

Pistons (9-52):
— lost nine of last ten games SU.
— 7-2 ATS last nine as a home dog.
— under 9-1 last ten games
— 3-8 ATS on first night of back/back, 6-5 on 2nd night.

Warriors (33-28):
— won seven of last nine games SU
— 9-16 ATS as a home favorite
— 20-9 ATS on the road.
— under 8-0 last eight games
— 10-4 ATS if they played night before.

Rockets (27-35):
— lost 10 of last 14 games SU
— 5-1 ATS last six home games.
— under 6-1 last seven games.
— 7-3 ATS if they played night before.

Pacers (35-28):
— 8-5 in last 13 games SU.
— 10-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— under 8-3 last eleven games.
— 1-9 ATS if they played night before.

Clippers (40-21):
— won three of last four games (3-9 ATS in last 12)
— 1-5 ATS last six home games.
— under 5-2 last seven games.
— 5-5 ATS if they played night before.

Lakers (34-30):
— 7-4 SU last 11 games (2-6 ATS last eight)
— 10-15 as home favorite, 2-8 ATS as a road fave.
— over 4-1 last five home games.
— 3-9 ATS if they played night before.

Grizzlies (22-41):
— 7-2 ATS last nine road games.
— 12-18 ATS at home.
— over 4-1 last five games
— 6-5 ATS if they played night before.

Heat (35-27):
— won nine of last 11 games SU (11-3 ATS last 14).
— 11-12 ATS as home favorites, 1-6 as home underdogs.
— under 7-3 last ten games.
— 4-5 ATS if they played the night before.

Bucks (41-22):
— 6-1 SU/ATS since All-Star break
— 5-2 ATS last seven home games.
— under 10-1 last eleven games.
— 4-5-1 ATS if they played the night before.

Timberwolves (43-19)
— 4-3 SU/1-6 ATS since All-Star break
— 3-9 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite.
— over 5-0 last five road games.
— 4-6 ATS if they played the night before.
— Karl-Anthony Towns is out for rest of regular season.

Pelicans (37-25):
— won 12 of last 16 games SU
— 16-9 ATS as an underdog.
— under 8-2 last ten road games.
— 5-4 ATS if they played the night before

Knicks (36-26):
— 4-9 SU/2-11 ATS last 13 games.
— 0-9 ATS in last nine home games.
— under 5-1 last six home games
— 2-7 ATS if they played night before.

Thunder (43-19):
— won eight of their last ten games SU.
— 18-7 ATS as a home favorite, 8-3 as a road dog.
— over 4-1-1 last six home games
— 7-3 ATS if they played night before.

Magic (37-26):
— 8-1 SU last nine games, 5-0 ATS last five.
— 14-4 ATS as home favorite, 6-3 as road favorite.
— under 6-1 last seven games.
— 7-6 ATS if they played night before.

76ers (35-27):
— 6-14 SU last 20 games.
— 1-10 ATS last 11 home games.
— under 6-3 last nine home games.
— 5-9 ATS if they played night before.

Suns (36-26):
— 3-4 SU since All-Star break.
— 12-17 ATS as a home favorite, 7-11 as road favorite.
— under 5-0 last five home games
— 4-4 ATS if they played night before.

Trailblazers (17-44):
— lost 11 of last 13 games SU.
— 0-8 SU/1-7 ATS last eight home games.
— over 3-1 last four games
— 8-3 ATS if they played night before.

Kings (35-26):
— 4-3 SU since All-Star break.
— 14-5 ATS as an underdog.
— over 4-1 last five road games
— 3-6 ATS if they played night before, 0-4 at home.

Spurs (13-49):
— 3-13 SU in last 16 games
— 5-3 ATS last eight home games.
— under 6-2 last eight road games.
— 4-3 ATS if they played night before.

Raptors (23-39):
— 4-3 SU since the All-Star break.
— 1-6 ATS last seven home tilts.
— under 9-3 last 12 home games.
— 4-7 ATS if they played night before.

Jazz (28-35):
— lost nine of last 11 games SU
— 9-6 ATS last 15 home games.
— over 10-5 last 15 home games
— 4-5 ATS if they played night before.

Wizards (9-53):
— 0-16 SU last eight games (2-6 ATS last eight).
— 9-17 ATS as a home underdog.
— over 6-0 last six road games; under 9-2 last 11 at home.
— 4-5 ATS if they played night before.

 

[Udog]

 

[Udog]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, March 8

Friday’s 5 interesting games
Boise State @ San Diego State (-7.5)
Boise State (21-9, 12-5)
KenPom rating: 40
Tempo: 221
Experience: 130
Continuity: 66
Boise State won five of its last six games.
Broncos are 6-2 SU/2-2 ATS as MW road underdogs.
Boise is #1 team in country on defensive boards.
Broncos are 9-9 vs teams ranked in the top 100.


San Diego State (22-8, 11-6)
KenPom rating: 20
Tempo: 248
Experience: 48
Continuity: 121
San Diego State split its last four games.
Aztecs are 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS as MW home faves.
San Diego State has #38 eFG% defense in country.
Aztecs are 9-8 vs teams ranked in the top 100.


San Diego State (+1) lost 67-66 in Boise January 20.
Boise State won five of last six series games.
Broncos lost five of last six games in Viejas.
MW home favorites of 8 or less points are 18-16 ATS.


Arch Madness (@ St Louis)
Missouri State vs Indiana State
Missouri State (17-15, 9-12)
KenPom rating: 148
Tempo: 160
Experience: 114
Continuity: 64
Missouri State lost six of its last nine games.
Bears are 4-8 ATS as an MVC underdog this year.
Missouri State held Murray State to 35 points in an easy win yesterday.
Missouri State has gone WL in last four MVC tournaments.
Bears are 2-5 against teams ranked in the top 100.


Indiana State (26-5, 17-3)
KenPom rating: 45
Tempo: 37
Experience: 126
Continuity: 193
Indiana State won four in row, 13 of last 15 games.
Sycamores are 10-8 ATS as MVC favorites.
Indiana State has the #1 eFG% in country.
Sycamores are 14-5 vs teams ranked in top 200.
Last 3 years, ISU is 4-3 in Arch Madness; they lost in semis LY.


Indiana State beat Missouri State twice TY, 88-66/73-71.
Teams split their last six meetings overall.


Belmont vs Northern Iowa
Belmont (20-12, 13-8)
KenPom rating: 114
Tempo: 30
Experience: 245
Continuity: 161
Belmont won eight of its last nine games.
Bruins are 3-8 ATS as MVC underdogs.
Belmont has #22 eFG% in the country.
Bruins are 3-8 vs teams ranked in top 125.
Belmont had a stress-free win yesterday.
Last six years, Belmont is 6-5 in conference tournaments.


Northern Iowa (18-13, 12-8)
KenPom rating: 105
Tempo: 239
Experience: 116
Continuity: 37
Northern Iowa won five of its last six games.
Panthers are 4-8 ATS as Missouri Valley favorites.
UNI has #259 eFG% defense in country.
Panthers are 7-7 against teams in top 125.
UNI won MVC tourney in both 2015/2016; they’re 6-6 in Arch Madness since then.


Road team won both meetings between these teams this season.
Belmont won three of four MVC meetings with UNI.


Evansville vs Drake
Evansville (16-16, 7-14)
KenPom rating: 204
Tempo: 116
Experience: 259
Continuity: 188
Evansville snapped a 7-game losing skid yesterday.
Purple Aces played nine guys 11:00+ yesterday.
Purple Aces are 10-9 ATS as MVC underdogs TY.
Evansville is 1-7 vs teams in the top 100.
Yesterday was Purple Aces’ first MVC tourney win since 2017.


Drake (25-6, 16-4)
KenPom rating: 54
Tempo: 148
Experience: 140
Continuity: 146
Drake won seven of its last eight games.
Bulldogs are 10-8 ATS as MVC favorites.
Drake is shooting 56.2% inside arc (#17)
Bulldogs are 8-0 vs teams outside the top 200.
Last 4 years, Drake is 8-3 in MVC tourney (won it LY).


Drake beat Evansville twice TY, 97-48/78-75.
Drake won the last ten series games.


Ill-Chicago vs Bradley
Illinois-Chicago (12-20, 5-16)
KenPom rating: 184
Tempo: 140
Experience: 139
Continuity: 97
UIC upset Southern Illinois in double OT last nite.
UIC was down 62-56 with 0:38 left, but they won.
Three Flames played 46:00+ in that game.
UIC is shooting 36.7% on the arc (#34)
Flames are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
UIC is 1-6 vs teams in top 100.
Last 4+ years, UIC is 5-4 in conference tourneys.


Bradley (21-10, 13-7)
KenPom rating: 67
Tempo: 225
Experience: 198
Continuity: 69
Bradley won three of its last four games.
Braves are 8-10 ATS as MVC favorites.
Bradley has #20 eFG% in country.
Braves are 17-9 vs teams in the top 200.
Bradley is 8-3 in last five MVC tourneys, winning it in 2019, 2020.


Bradley beat UIC twice this year, 77-59/85-73.
Braves are 4-0 vs UIC since they’ve been MVC rivals.

 

[Udog]

NCAAB

Friday, March 8

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Trend Report
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[Udog]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Friday, March 8

 

[Udog]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Friday, March 8

 

[CNOTES]

FRIDAY, MARCH 8​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
RAD at HP	12:00 PM	RAD +11.0 O 150.5	+500 +500
MOSU at INST	01:00 PM	MOSU +12.0 O 148.5	+500 +500
CWM at NCAT	02:00 PM	NCAT +5.0 O 138.0	+500 +500
LONG at WIN	02:00 PM	WIN +1.0 U 144.5	+500 +500
BEL at UNI	03:30 PM	BEL -1.0 U 151.0	+500 +500
HAMP at ELON	04:30 PM	HAMP +4.0 U 147.0	+500 +500
CIT at MER	05:00 PM	CIT +4.0 O 139.0	+500 +500
AKR at WMU	06:00 PM	AKR -8.5 U 139.5	+500 +500
CHSO at UNCA	06:00 PM	UNCA -12.5 U 141.5	+500 +500
EMU at CMU	07:00 PM	EMU +8.0 O 129.5	+500 +500
VCU at DAY	07:00 PM	VCU +7.5 O 136.5	+500 +500
NIU at BUFF	07:00 PM	NIU +1.0 O 151.5	+500 +500
BALL at BGSU	07:00 PM	BGSU -5.5 U 142.5	+500 +500
OHIO at M-OH	07:00 PM	OHIO -2.5 O 145.0	+500 +500
EVAN at DRKE	07:00 PM	EVAN +13.5 U 142.5	+500 +500
VMI at ETSU	07:30 PM	ETSU -17.0 U 148.0	+500 +500
KENT at TOL	08:00 PM	TOL -8.0 O 153.0	+500 +500
WIU at UALR	08:00 PM	UALR -6.0 U 135.0	+500 +500
PRE at WEBB	08:00 PM	PRE +6.0 O 143.5	+500 +500
SDAK at ORU	08:00 PM	ORU -4.5 U 152.0	+500 +500
PEPP at USD	09:00 PM	USD +2.0 O 153.0	+500 +500
WICH at TULN	09:00 PM	WICH +3.0 O 155.0	+500 +500
UIC at BRAD	09:30 PM	UIC +12.0 O 133.5	+500 +500
BSU at SDSU	10:00 PM	BSU +8.0 U 136.0	+500 +500
MORE at UTM	10:30 PM	UTM +8.0 O 147.5	+500 +500
LMU at PORT	11:30 PM	LMU -6.5 U 143.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday’s Den: Conference tournament trends…….​

Some conference tournament trends……..
— ACC
Last five ACC tournaments, four different teams have won the tournament; Duke won it in 2019 and last year. Since 2017, they’re 15-2 in ACC tourney games.
North Carolina hasn’t won an ACC tournament since 2016; in two years under Hubert Davis, they went WL in both ACC tournaments.
Since joining the ACC, Syracuse is 5-8 in conference tournament games.

— Atlantic 15
Winners of last seven A-15 tournaments:
2016- St Joe’s (13-5, 4th)
2017- Rhode Island (13-5, T3)
2018- Davidson (13-5, 3rd)
2019- Saint Louis (10-8, T6th)
2020- COVID year
2021- St Bonaventure (11-7, T5)
2022- Richmond (10-8, 6th)
2023- VCU (15-3, 1st)

— Big 14
Winners of last five Big 14 tournaments:
2018- Michigan (13-5, T4th)
2019- Michigan State (16-4, T1st)
2020- COVID year
2021- Illinois (16-4, 2nd)
2022- Iowa (12-8, T4th)
2023- Purdue (15-5, 1st)

— Big X
Since 2013……
Kansas has won four Big X tournaments.
Iowa State has won four Big X tournaments.
Texas has won two Big X tournaments.
Thats it, those three teams are only champs in last 11 years.

— Big East
Winners of last three Big East tournaments:
2021- Georgetown (7-9, 8th)
2022- Villanova (16-4, 2nd)
2023- Marquette (17-3, 1st)
From 2015-19, Villanova won the tournament 4 of 5 years, so they’ve won 5 of last 8 Big East tournaments, overall, but those were all with Jay Wright as coach.

— Big Sky
#1-seed won 10 of last 12 Big Sky tournaments; #2-seed won the other two.
Montana State won the tournament the last two years.

— Big West
First place team won three of last four Big West tournaments
Last eight Big West tourney champs:
2015- Cal-Irvine (11-5, T2nd)
2016- Hawai’i (13-3, T1st)
2017- Cal-Davis (11-5, 2nd)
2018- Cal-Fullerton (10-6, 4th)
2019- Cal-Irvine (15-1, 1st)
2020- COVID year
2021- Cal-Santa Barbara (13-3, 1st)
2022- Cal-Fullerton (11-4, 2nd)
2023- Cal-Santa Barbara (15-5, T1st)

— CAA
Winners of last five Big 14 tournaments:
2019- Northeastern (14-4, 2nd)
2020- Hofstra (14-4, 1st)
2021- Drexel (4-5, 6th)
2022- Delaware (10-8, T4th)
2023- Charleston (16-2, T1st)

— Word of the Day: bamboozle- to fool or cheat someone.

— Stetson 88, Jacksonville 87 (Thursday night)
Hatters trailed by 10 with 4:53 left in the game.
Stetson made 13-22 on the arc, scored 1.38 points/possession.
Last year (17-14) was Stetson’s first winning season since 2001.
21-12 Hatters play Austin Peay for A-Sun title Sunday afternoon.

— Washington Huskies fired basketball coach Mike Hopkins; Huskies made the NCAA’s once in his seven years coaching there. Washington was 62-72 in Pac-12 games under Hopkins, who also spent 22 years as an assistant coach at Syracuse.
Hopkins was under contract at Washington thru next season, so he will bank $3.1M on his way out the door.

— Southern Illinois fired basketball coach Bryan Mullins, despite going 23-10/19-13 the last two years (25-15 in MVC games). At some of these mid-major schools, you don’t make the NCAA’s, they tell you to take a hike. Salukis haven’t been in the Big Dance since 2007.

— Famous birthdays on March 9th:
Bert Campaneris, 82
Dennis Harrah, 71
Linda Fiorentino, 64
Brian Bosworth, 59
Aaron Boone, 51
Matt Barnes, 44
Saturday would’ve been the 81st birthday for Bobby Fischer, the great chess master.

— MAAC
Iona won six of last seven MAAC tournaments; Saint Peter’s won the other one two years ago, and they wound up in the Elite 8 in the NCAA’s.

— MAC
Winners of last five MAC tournaments:
2019- Buffalo (16-2, 1st)
2020- COVID year
2021- Ohio U (9-5, 4th)
2022- Akron (14-6, T3rd)
2023- Kent State (15-3, and)

— Mountain West
San Diego State played in MW tournament final the last six years, going 3-3; Utah State beat the Aztecs in two MW finals, Boise State won the other one.
#1-seed won last three Mountain West tournaments.

— Pac-12
Arizona won four of last six Pac-12 tournaments. Oregon/Oregon State won the other two.
UCLA hasn’t won the Pac-12 tournament since 2014.
This is the last year of the Pac-12; Oregon State/Washington State got left behind by the rest of the league, for $$$ reasons.

— SEC
Winners of last five SEC tournaments:
2018- Kentucky (10-8, T4th)
2019- Auburn (11-7, T$th)
2020- COVID year
2021- Alabama (16-2, 1st)
2022- Tennessee (14-4, T2nd)
2023- Alabama (16-2, 1st)

— Southern
Last nine SoCon tournaments were won by a #1-seed (2 of the 9 were tied for 1st)

— Summit League
since 2012…….
South Dakota State has won six Summit tournaments
North Dakota State has won four Summit tournaments
Oral Roberts has won two Summit tournaments, but Max Abmas plays for Texas now.

— WCC
since 2004, Gonzaga is 41-4 in the WCC Tournament.
since 2010, Saint Mary’s is 19-12 (3-9 against Gonzaga).
Last time someone other than Gonzaga/Saint Mary’s won the WCC Tournament was 2008, when #3-seed San Diego won.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
— Boise State 79, San Diego State 77 OT- Broncos were 11-27 on arc.
— Dayton 91, VCU 86 OT- VCU led by 17 midway thru first half.
— Western Michigan 90, Akron 84- WMU was 26-35 on line, Zips 11-14.
— Morehead State 84, UT-Martin 78- Eagles shot 16-35 on the arc.
— Portland 78, LMU 70- Pilots advance to play San Francisco Saturday.
— San Diego 57, Pepperdine 52- Toreros were 0-16 inside arc in 2nd half, still won.

Quote of the Day
“I think that, specific to Gavin (Lux), it gives him an opportunity to get to the other side of the diamond. … So to get him back over there, shorten the throw, it should be less of a toll on his body overall and give him an opportunity to have success.”
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, talking about moving Mookie Betts to SS

Saturday’s quiz
Who was coach of the Golden State Warriors before Steve Kerr?

Friday’s quiz
Over the last 35 years, only one college basketball team has lost twice as a #2-seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament- Arizona.

Thursday’s quiz
In the history of the Oakland A’s (since 1968), Mark McGwire has knocked in the most runs.

************************************************

Saturday’s Den: Conference tournament trends…….​

Some conference tournament trends……..
— ACC
Last five ACC tournaments, four different teams have won the tournament; Duke won it in 2019 and last year. Since 2017, they’re 15-2 in ACC tourney games.
North Carolina hasn’t won an ACC tournament since 2016; in two years under Hubert Davis, they went WL in both ACC tournaments.
Since joining the ACC, Syracuse is 5-8 in conference tournament games.

— Atlantic 15
Winners of last seven A-15 tournaments:
2016- St Joe’s (13-5, 4th)
2017- Rhode Island (13-5, T3)
2018- Davidson (13-5, 3rd)
2019- Saint Louis (10-8, T6th)
2020- COVID year
2021- St Bonaventure (11-7, T5)
2022- Richmond (10-8, 6th)
2023- VCU (15-3, 1st)

— Big 14
Winners of last five Big 14 tournaments:
2018- Michigan (13-5, T4th)
2019- Michigan State (16-4, T1st)
2020- COVID year
2021- Illinois (16-4, 2nd)
2022- Iowa (12-8, T4th)
2023- Purdue (15-5, 1st)

— Big X
Since 2013……
Kansas has won four Big X tournaments.
Iowa State has won four Big X tournaments.
Texas has won two Big X tournaments.
Thats it, those three teams are only champs in last 11 years.

— Big East
Winners of last three Big East tournaments:
2021- Georgetown (7-9, 8th)
2022- Villanova (16-4, 2nd)
2023- Marquette (17-3, 1st)
From 2015-19, Villanova won the tournament 4 of 5 years, so they’ve won 5 of last 8 Big East tournaments, overall, but those were all with Jay Wright as coach.

— Big Sky
#1-seed won 10 of last 12 Big Sky tournaments; #2-seed won the other two.
Montana State won the tournament the last two years.

— Big West
First place team won three of last four Big West tournaments
Last eight Big West tourney champs:
2015- Cal-Irvine (11-5, T2nd)
2016- Hawai’i (13-3, T1st)
2017- Cal-Davis (11-5, 2nd)
2018- Cal-Fullerton (10-6, 4th)
2019- Cal-Irvine (15-1, 1st)
2020- COVID year
2021- Cal-Santa Barbara (13-3, 1st)
2022- Cal-Fullerton (11-4, 2nd)
2023- Cal-Santa Barbara (15-5, T1st)

— CAA
Winners of last five Big 14 tournaments:
2019- Northeastern (14-4, 2nd)
2020- Hofstra (14-4, 1st)
2021- Drexel (4-5, 6th)
2022- Delaware (10-8, T4th)
2023- Charleston (16-2, T1st)

— Word of the Day: bamboozle- to fool or cheat someone.

— Stetson 88, Jacksonville 87 (Thursday night)
Hatters trailed by 10 with 4:53 left in the game.
Stetson made 13-22 on the arc, scored 1.38 points/possession.
Last year (17-14) was Stetson’s first winning season since 2001.
21-12 Hatters play Austin Peay for A-Sun title Sunday afternoon.

— Washington Huskies fired basketball coach Mike Hopkins; Huskies made the NCAA’s once in his seven years coaching there. Washington was 62-72 in Pac-12 games under Hopkins, who also spent 22 years as an assistant coach at Syracuse.
Hopkins was under contract at Washington thru next season, so he will bank $3.1M on his way out the door.

— Southern Illinois fired basketball coach Bryan Mullins, despite going 23-10/19-13 the last two years (25-15 in MVC games). At some of these mid-major schools, you don’t make the NCAA’s, they tell you to take a hike. Salukis haven’t been in the Big Dance since 2007.

— Famous birthdays on March 9th:
Bert Campaneris, 82
Dennis Harrah, 71
Linda Fiorentino, 64
Brian Bosworth, 59
Aaron Boone, 51
Matt Barnes, 44
Saturday would’ve been the 81st birthday for Bobby Fischer, the great chess master.

— MAAC
Iona won six of last seven MAAC tournaments; Saint Peter’s won the other one two years ago, and they wound up in the Elite 8 in the NCAA’s.

— MAC
Winners of last five MAC tournaments:
2019- Buffalo (16-2, 1st)
2020- COVID year
2021- Ohio U (9-5, 4th)
2022- Akron (14-6, T3rd)
2023- Kent State (15-3, and)

— Mountain West
San Diego State played in MW tournament final the last six years, going 3-3; Utah State beat the Aztecs in two MW finals, Boise State won the other one.
#1-seed won last three Mountain West tournaments.

— Pac-12
Arizona won four of last six Pac-12 tournaments. Oregon/Oregon State won the other two.
UCLA hasn’t won the Pac-12 tournament since 2014.
This is the last year of the Pac-12; Oregon State/Washington State got left behind by the rest of the league, for $$$ reasons.

— SEC
Winners of last five SEC tournaments:
2018- Kentucky (10-8, T4th)
2019- Auburn (11-7, T$th)
2020- COVID year
2021- Alabama (16-2, 1st)
2022- Tennessee (14-4, T2nd)
2023- Alabama (16-2, 1st)

— Southern
Last nine SoCon tournaments were won by a #1-seed (2 of the 9 were tied for 1st)

— Summit League
since 2012…….
South Dakota State has won six Summit tournaments
North Dakota State has won four Summit tournaments
Oral Roberts has won two Summit tournaments, but Max Abmas plays for Texas now.

— WCC
since 2004, Gonzaga is 41-4 in the WCC Tournament.
since 2010, Saint Mary’s is 19-12 (3-9 against Gonzaga).
Last time someone other than Gonzaga/Saint Mary’s won the WCC Tournament was 2008, when #3-seed San Diego won.

 

[Udog]