NCAA MEN'S BASKETBALL NOTES, NEWS OPINIONS AND BEST BETS THRU MARCH MADNESS !

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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
— Bills 38, Steelers 17- Buffalo ran for 179 yards, 5.3 yards/carry.
— Bucs 32, Eagles 9- Philly ends its season on a 1-6 skid.
Odds on this weekend’s NFL games:
— Texans @ Baltimore (-9, 45.5)
— Packers @ San Francisco (-10, 50.5)
— Buccaneers @ Detroit (-6, 48.5)
— Chiefs @ Buffalo (-3, 45.5)

Quote of the Day
“Being historically great on offense is fun, but even dating a pretty girl gets boring after a while, if she can’t guard anybody.”
Indiana Pacers’ coach Rick Carlisle

Tuesday’s quiz
When the NFL/AFL merged after the 1969 season, which three NFL teams switched over and became AFC teams in the new set-up?

Monday’s quiz
Since 1987, Ben Roethlisberger threw the most passes in a playoff game, he threw 68 passes in a 48-37 loss to Cleveland three years ago.

Sunday’s quiz
In the movie Tin Cup, Kevin Costner plays a driving range golf pro who tries to qualify for the US Open; Don Johnson played his golfing rival.

**********************************************

Tuesday’s Den: NBA trends……..

NBA trends (thru Monday)

Hawks (16-23):
— split last eight games SU (1-7 ATS)
— 2-12 ATS as a home favorite
— under 4-1 last five games
— 1-6 ATS if they played night before.

Celtics (31-9):
— won five of last seven games SU (5-6 ATS last 11)
— 8-10-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— over 6-3 last nine road games.

Nets (16-23):
— lost eight of their last nine games.
— 8-2 ATS as home favorite.
— 0-8 ATS last eight road games.
— 2-4 ATS if they played night before.

Hornets (8-29):
— lost 15 of their last 16 games SU (7-9 ATS).
— 3-13 ATS last 16 games as road underdog.
— under 6-1 last seven games.

Bulls (19-23)
— 4-2 SU in their last six games (5-7 ATS last 12).
— 6-3 ATS last nine as a home favorite.
— over 4-1 last five games.

Cavaliers (23-15):
— won their last five games SU (4-1 ATS).
— 8-3 ATS last eleven home games.
— under 6-2 last eight games.
— 1-4 ATS if they played the night before.

Mavericks (24-17):
— won/covered five of their last seven games.
— 6-2 ATS as road favorites.
— under 7-3 last ten home games.
— 5-2 ATS if they played night before.

Nuggets (28-13):
— won 14 of last 18 games SU (2-4 ATS last six)
— 5-11 ATS as a road favorite
— over 4-1 last five games.
— 2-7 ATS if they played night before.

Pistons (4-36):
— 7-4 ATS in last eleven games.
— 7-10 ATS as a home underdog, 9-11 as a road dog.
— over 7-1 last eight road games
— 1-6 ATS on first night of a back/back.

Warriors (18-22):
— lost eight of last eleven games SU
— 4-14 ATS as a home favorite
— 9-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— over 7-2 last nine games

Rockets (19-20):
— lost four of last five games SU
— 7-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— over 4-1 last five games.
— 4-2 ATS if they played night before.

Pacers (23-17):
— split their last six games SU.
— under 7-0 last seven road games
— 5-1 ATS in last six road games.
— 1-5 ATS if they played night before.

Clippers (25-14):
— 8-2 SU in last 10 games SU (6-3 ATS in last nine)
— 1-6 ATS as an underdog.
— over 3-1 last four games.
Lakers (20-21):
— 6-12 SU since they won the in-season tournament.

— 9-18 ATS as a favorite.
— over 10-2 last dozen road games.
— 1-6 ATS if they played night before.

Grizzlies (15-25):
— won six of last eight games SU
— 6-13 ATS at home.
— over 6-2 last eight road games

Heat (24-16):
— won four of last five games SU.
— 8-7 ATS as home favorites, 0-4 as home underdogs.
— under 6-0 last six road games.
— 1-4 ATS if they played the night before.

Bucks (28-12):
— won last three games, scoring 135-124-143 points.
— 6-11-1 ATS as home favorites.
— over 3-1 last four games.

Timberwolves (28-11)
— 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS last six games.
— 9-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— under 7-3 last ten home games.

Pelicans (24-17):
— split their last six games SU
— 13-6 ATS as an underdog.
— over 3-1 last four games.
— 4-2 ATS if they played the night before

Knicks (23-17):
— won/covered six of their last seven games
— 13-5 ATS as a favorite, 7-9 as a road underdog
— under 7-0 last seven games
— 2-5 ATS if they played night before.

Thunder (24-12):
— won four of their last five games.
— 11-3 ATS as a home favorite, 7-2 as a road dog.
— over 9-2 last eleven home games
— 3-1 ATS if they played night before.

Magic (22-18):
— 1-3 SU/ATS last four games
— 12-5 ATS at home, 5-1 as a home dog.
— under 5-0 last five games.

76ers (25-13):
— 3-4 last seven games SU.
— 18-8 ATS as a favorite, 5-6 as an underdog.
— under 5-2 last seven games.
— 2-6 ATS if they played night before.

Suns (21-18):
— split their last six games SU.
— 10-19 ATS as a favorite.
— over 3-1 last four games

Trailblazers (10-29):
— 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS in last eight games.
— 5-2 ATS last seven home games
— under 5-2 last seven road games
— 5-2 ATS if they played night before.

Kings (21-14):
— split their last eight games SU.
— 9-2 ATS as an underdog.
— under 4-1 last five games
— 1-5 ATS if they played night before.

Spurs (7-32):
— covered six of their last seven games
— 7-10 ATS as a home underdog, 8-10 as a road dog.
— under 6-1-1 last eight games.
— 3-0 ATS as a favorite

Raptors (15-25):
— lost five of their last six games.
— 9-7 ATS as a favorite.
— over 5-1 last six games.

Jazz (21-20):
— won/covered their last six games.
— 16-4 ATS at home
— 7-12 ATS as a road underdog.
— over 3-2 last five home games

Wizards (7-32):
— 1-7 SU/3-5 ATS last eight games
— 6-9 ATS as a home underdog.
— under 6-1 last seven road games.

NBA has a scheduling thing now where sometimes, a team will go to a city for three nights and play the same team twice (to save travel costs), with a day off in between.
So far this season, it has happened 26 times, so 52 games; underdogs are 32-20 ATS in those games, over 30-22 (13-13 first night, 17-9 second night)
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, January 16

Tuesday’s 5 interesting games
Florida
@ Tennessee (-9.5)
Florida (11-5, 1-2)
KenPom rating: 40
Tempo: 11
Experience: 90
Continuity: 281
Florida allowed 82+ points in four of its five losses.
Gators are 0-2 in true road games, losing by 11-18 points.
Florida is 5-5 vs top 100 teams.
Gators are #3 team in country on offensive boards.


Tennessee (12-4, 2-1)
KenPom rating: 8
Tempo: 84
Experience: 25
Continuity: 63
Tennessee won eight of its last nine games.
Vols shot 57.9% inside arc in their first three SEC games.
Vols have #6 eFG% defense in country.
Tennessee is 6-4 vs teams in top 100.


Tennessee won seven of last nine series games.
Gators lost their last six visits to Knoxville.
SEC home favorites of 9+ points are 5-1 ATS.


Purdue (-9.5) @ Indiana
Purdue (15-2, 4-2)
KenPom rating: 3
Tempo: 175
Experience: 82
Continuity: 9
Purdue won eight of its last nine games.
Boilers gave up 92-88 points in their two losses.
Purdue has #15 eFG%, #52 eFG% defense in country.
Purdue is 10-2 against teams in top 100.


Indiana (12-5, 4-2)
KenPom rating: 91
Tempo: 90
Experience: 222
Continuity: 262
Indiana is 5-4 in last nine games, after a 7-1 start.
Hoosiers are turning ball over 19.1% of time in Big 14 tilts (#14 of 14)
Indiana is 4-5 vs top 100 teams.
Indiana is 3-0 SU in Big 14 home games, giving up 60 ppg.


Indiana won three of last four meetings, after an 0-9 skid.
Purdue lost last two visits to Assembly Hall, by 3-5 points.
Big 14 home underdogs are 9-2 ATS.


St John’s (-1.5) @ Seton Hall
St John’s (12-5, 4-2)
KenPom rating: 34
Tempo: 76
Experience: 5
Continuity: 329
St John’s won four of its last five games.
Red Storm’s two Big East losses were by total of 5 points.
Red Storm is #6 team in country on offensive boards.
St John’s is 6-5 vs teams ranked in top 100.


Seton Hall (12-5, 5-1)
KenPom rating: 64
Tempo: 281
Experience: 10
Continuity: 196
Seton Hall won four in row, 7 of last 8 games.
Seton Hall is 4-5 against teams in top 100.
Pirates are #7 team in country on offensive boards.
Seton Hall is turning ball over 22.6% of time in league games (#11 of 11)


Seton Hall won seven of last nine series games.
Red Storm lost eight of last nine visits here.
Big East single digit home underdogs are 4-2 ATS.


Wake Forest @ NC State (-1.5)
Wake Forest (12-4, 4-1)
KenPom rating: 37
Tempo: 165
Experience: 203
Continuity: 57
Deacons won ten of their last eleven games.
Wake Forest lost two of its three true road games.
Wake Forest is 6-4 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Deacons are shooting 38.4% on arc (#18)


NC State (12-4, 4-1)
KenPom rating: 71
Tempo: 135
Experience: 14
Continuity: 251
NC State won four of its last five games.
Wolfpack is 2-4 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Wolfpack has #14 eFG% in ACC games (#14 of 14)
NC State is 4-0 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.


NC State won seven of last nine series games.
Deacons lost six of last seven visits to Raleigh.
ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 6-7 ATS.


Utah State @ New Mexico (-5.5)
Utah State (16-1, 4-0)
KenPom rating: 41
Tempo: 121
Experience: 73
Continuity: 360
Utah State won its last 15 games, country’s longest win streak.
Aggies’ only loss was in OT at Bradley, on November 11.
Aggies are 5-1 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Utah State scored 80+ points in four of last five games.


New Mexico (14-3, 2-2)
KenPom rating: 38
Tempo: 10
Experience: 69
Continuity: 258
New Mexico split its four MW games, after a 12-1 pre-conference mark.
Lobos are 3-3 vs teams ranked in top 100
New Mexico is forcing turnovers 21.8% of time (#24)
Lobos are #40 team in country on defensive boards.


Utah State won last seven series games.
Teams split their last four meetings in Albuquerque.
Mountain West home favorites of 7 or less points are 3-4 ATS.
 

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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
NHL goalies with most all-time wins:
691— Martin Brodeur
552— Marc-Andre Fleury
551— Patrick Roy
489— Roberto Luongo
484— Ed Belfour
459— Henrik Lundqvist

Quote of the Day
“Never mess with a civil servant, my friend.”
Lenny Briscoe, Law and Order, after he beat a guy playing pool in a bar

Wednesday’s quiz
What former Arizona Wildcats’ guard is one of two players EVER to play in both the Final Four and in the World Series?

Tuesday’s quiz
When the NFL/AFL merged after the 1969 season, three NFL teams switched over and became AFC teams in the new set-up- Browns, Colts, Steelers.

Monday’s quiz
Since 1987, Ben Roethlisberger threw the most passes in a playoff game, he threw 68 passes in a 48-37 loss to Cleveland three years ago.

******************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….

Now that we’re in conference play in college basketball, we’ll have some notes on March Madness now and then:

— For the first time ever, a #15-seed has upset a #2-seed in the first round of the NCAAs for three straight years: Oral Roberts, St Peter’s, Princeton.
Four of the last five #15-seeds that won in the first round (add in Florida Gulf Coast in 2013) also won in the second round, and three of those four teams covered in their regional semifinal game. St Peter’s is the only #15-seed that made it to a regional final.

— The last 17 years, the team that wound up winning the national title was 14-3 ATS in their first round game, the exceptions being:
2012- Kentucky, -26, won 81-66
2019- UCLA, -21.5, won 71-56
2021- Baylor, -26, won 79-55
Since 2006, every other national champ covered their first round game.

— What stats can help identify who the national champ will be?
1) offensive efficiency- last seven years, all seven champs were in the top 10.
2) defensive efficiency- last seven years, all seven champs were in the top 25.
3) Five of last seven national champs were #1-seeds, one was a 2-seed, UConn LY was a #4.
4) Five of last seven national champs were in top 100 in % of points scored on the arc.
5) Five of last seven national champs were in top 125 in continuity.
Stats that don’t seem to matter:
Tempo- only two of last seven champs were in top 125 in pace of play.
Bench minutes- only one of last seven champs was in top 200 in bench minutes
Forcing turnovers- low FG% by opponents seems to matter a lot more.
only 2 of last 7 national champs were in top 200 in % of points scored inside arc.
We’ll do more of this as we get closer to March…….

— Gonzaga is out of the top 25 for the first time since 2016.

— There are eight Big X teams in the Top 25 right now, only two ACC teams.

— Michigan State hasn’t missed the NCAA Tournament since 1997; right now, the Spartans are 10-7, only 2-4 in conference, albeit against a difficult schedule.

— Baseball Fact of the Day- In 1960, Cincinnati Reds went 67-87, finished 28 games out of first place in the 8-team National League. The next year, Cincinnati went 93-67 and won the National League, losing the World Series in five games.

— In his 6-year NFL career, Baker Mayfield has played for eight different head coaches.

— NFC East is the only division that won’t have a team in the playoffs this weekend.

— Last 11 times an NFL playoff game had a double-digit spread, the favorite went 10-1 ATS.

— New Orleans Saints fired offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, the longest-tenured offensive coordinator in the NFL- he had been with the Saints for 18 years.

— When the Houston Texans traded QB Deshaun Watson to Cleveland, they got back:
Three (3!!!) 1st round picks
3rd-round pick
5th-round pick
Cleveland also got a 5th-round pick from Houston.

— USC QB Caleb Williams declared for the NFL Draft; he is expected to be the #1 pick in the draft, whether it is by the Bears or some other team.

— Word of the Day: Aberration- a departure from what is normal, usual, or expected, usually something that is unwelcome.

— Georgia Tech 93, Clemson 90, 2OT
Yellow Jackets snap their 5-game losing skid.
Clemson led this game by 9 with 1:43 left in regulation.
Tech was 15-35 on the arc, Clemson was 3-21

— Cincinnati 81, TCU 77 OT
Bearcats trailed by 7 with 7:25 left in the game.

— Samford 75, Western Carolina 71
Samford has won 17 games in a row, after an 0-2 start.
TV announcer for this game mentioned how Samford coach Bucky McMillan has played in the World Series of Poker twice. He started telling the story at a key point near the end of the game, so he never got to finish the story, and tell us how McMillan did in the WSOP.

— Penn State 87, Wisconsin 83- First loss for the Badgers in six conference games.

— Seton Hall 80, St John’s 65- Red Storm coach Rick Pitino has COVID, missed this game. Seton Hall has won eight of its last nine games.

— Charlotte 81, Rice 79 OT- Owls have now lost their last five games, losing two of last three games in OT. Rice led this game 24-4 early on.

NBA has a scheduling thing now where sometimes, a team will go to a city for three nights and play the same team twice (to save travel costs), with a day off in between.
So far this season, it has happened 26 times, so 52 games; underdogs are 32-20 ATS in those games, over 30-22 (13-13 first night, 17-9 second night)
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, January 17

Wednesday’s 5 interesting games
Creighton
@ UConn (-6.5)
Creighton (13-4, 4-2)
KenPom rating: 14
Tempo: 256
Experience: 11
Continuity: 35
Creighton won last four games, giving up 60.8 ppg.
Bluejays are shooting 61.4% inside arc (#3)
Bluejays are forcing fewest turnovers of anyone in country.
Creighton is 5-4 vs top 100 teams.


UConn (15-2, 5-1)
KenPom rating: 8
Tempo: 322
Experience: 79
Continuity: 148
UConn won its last five games, scoring 83.3 ppg in last four.
Huskies are #12 team in country on offensive boards.
Huskies have #18 eFG% defense in country.
UConn is 7-2 vs teams in top 100.


Creighton won six of last seven series games.
Bluejays won two of three visits to the Nutmeg State.
Big East home favorites of 6+ points are 6-10 ATS.


Mississippi State
@ Kentucky (-6.5)
Miss State (12-4, 1-2)
KenPom rating: 26
Tempo: 157
Experience: 58
Continuity: 51
Miss State lost two of its last three games.
Bulldogs are 12-1 when they score more than 62 points.
Bulldogs have #16 eFG% defense in country.
Miss State is 4-3 against teams in top 100.


Kentucky (12-3, 2-1)
KenPom rating: 19
Tempo: 12
Experience: 160
Continuity: 322
Kentucky won six of its last seven games.
Wildcats have #11 eFG% in country.
Kentucky is 4-2 vs top 100 teams.
Kentucky allowed 89-80-97 points in their losses.


Kentucky won 17 of last 18 series games.
Bulldogs lost their last eight visits to Lexington.
SEC home favorites of 6+ points are 9-2 ATS.


Tulane
@ UAB (-2.5)
Tulane (11-5, 2-2)
KenPom rating: 101
Tempo: 15
Experience: 6
Continuity: 52
Tulane lost three of its last five D-I games.
Green Wave is shooting 59.8% inside arc (#5)
Green Wave is #304 team in country on defensive boards.
Tulane is 9-0 vs teams ranked outside top 150.


UAB (10-6, 2-1)
KenPom rating: 166
Tempo: 187
Experience: 218
Continuity: 248
UAB won five of last six D-I games.
UAB is 2-4 against teams in top 125.
Blazers have #275 eFG% in country.
Blazers are 8-3 in games decided by 6 or less points.


These teams haven’t met in ten years.
AAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 5-3 ATS.


Texas Tech
@ Houston (-11.5)
Texas Tech (14-2, 3-0)
KenPom rating: 30
Tempo: 279
Experience: 57
Continuity: 278
Texas Tech won its last nine games.
Red Raiders gave up 85-103 points in their two losses.
Texas Tech is 3-2 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Red Raiders have #53 eFG% in country.


Houston (14-2, 1-2)
KenPom rating: 1
Tempo: 345
Experience: 103
Continuity: 122
Houston lost its last two games, after a 14-0 start.
Cougars’ two losses were by total of five points.
Cougars are 4-2 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Houston has #1 eFG% defense in country.


These teams haven’t met in three years.
Houston beat Tech 64-53 on a neutral floor in that game.
Big X home favorites of 5+ points are 4-6 ATS.


Nevada
@ San Diego State (-6.5)
Nevada (15-2, 2-1)
KenPom rating: 44
Tempo: 186
Experience: 4
Continuity: 39
Nevada won seven of its last eight games.
Wolf Pack is 3-0 in true road games this season.
Wolf Pack is 2-2 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Nevada is getting 25.3% of its points on foul line (#9)


San Diego State (14-3, 3-1)
KenPom rating: 23
Tempo: 192
Experience: 54
Continuity: 126
San Diego State won six of its last seven games.
Aztecs are 6-3 vs teams ranked in top 100
San Diego State has #61 eFG% defense in country.
Aztecs are shooting only 29.5% on arc in league games.


San Diego State won nine of last ten series games.
Wolf Pack lost their last 11 visits to San Diego.
Mountain West home favorites of 7 or less points are 3-4 ATS.
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, January 18

Thursday’s 5 interesting games
Illinois
(-2.5) @ Michigan
Illinois (12-4, 3-2)
KenPom rating: 12
Tempo: 75
Experience: 15
Continuity: 170
Illinois lost two of last three games, after an 11-2 start.
Illini has #5 eFG% defense in country.
Illinois is #20 team in country on offensive boards.
Illini is 4-4 vs top 100 teams.


Michigan (7-10, 2-4)
KenPom rating: 72
Tempo: 209
Experience: 186
Continuity: 155
Michigan lost 5 of last 6 games (four losses by 7 or less points)
Wolverines are shooting 38.2% on arc (#20)
Wolverines are 1-7 in games decided by 7 or less points
Michigan is 3-8 vs teams in top 100.


Illinois won last six series games; they won LY’s meeting in double OT.
Illini won last three trips to Ann Arbor, by 2-23-8 points.
Big 14 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 7-1 ATS.


Eastern Washington @ Weber State (-5.5)
Eastern Washington (9-7, 3-0)
KenPom rating: 122
Tempo: 84
Experience: 231
Continuity: 136
EWU won its last five games, scoring 88.2 ppg.
Eagles are shooting 39% on the arc (#12)
Eagles have #281 eFG% defense in country.
EWU is 0-7 against teams in top 200.


Weber State (11-6, 2-2)
KenPom rating: 110
Tempo: 336
Experience: 33
Continuity: 14
Weber State lost its last two games, by 2-3 points.
Wildcats have #293 eFG% defense in country.
Weber is 3-1 vs top 125 teams.
Wildcats are #10 team in country on defensive boards.


Eastern Washington won six of last seven series games.
Eagles won four of last five visits to Ogden.
Big Sky home favorites of 6 or less points are 4-2 ATS.


Cal-Santa Barbara @ Cal-Northridge (-1.5)
Cal-Santa Barbara (10-6, 3-3)
KenPom rating: 181
Tempo: 149
Experience: 240
Continuity: 162
UCSB won its last three games, giving up 64 ppg.
Gauchos are turning ball over 21.1% of time in league games (#11 of 11)
UCSB is #50 team in country on defensive boards.
Gauchos are 2-3 vs teams ranked in top 200.


Cal-Northridge (13-4, 4-1)
KenPom rating: 188
Tempo: 7
Experience: 235
Continuity: 233
CSUN won seven of last eight D-I games.
CSUN is 3-2 against teams in top 200.
Matadors are #46 team on offensive boards.
Matadors are 4-1 in games decided by 5 or less points.


UCSB won five of last six series games.
Teams split their last four meetings in Northridge.
Big West home favorites of 6 or less points are 4-3 ATS.


Oregon @ Colorado (-6.5)
Oregon (13-3, 5-0)
KenPom rating: 52
Tempo: 159
Experience: 158
Continuity: 281
Oregon won its last six games, scoring 79.2 ppg.
Ducks gave up 88-99-83 points in their three losses.
Oregon is 5-2 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Ducks have #44 eFG% in country.


Colorado (12-5, 3-3)
KenPom rating: 36
Tempo: 138
Experience: 190
Continuity: 59
Colorado lost three of its last four games, after an 11-2 start.
Buffs have #19 eFG% in the country.
Colorado is 5-3 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Buffs are 2-4 in games decided by 6 or less points.


Colorado won seven of last ten series games.
Ducks lost eight of last nine visits to Boulder.
Pac 12 home favorites of 7 or less points are 3-7 ATS.


Loyola Marymount @ San Francisco (-10.5)
Loyola Marymount (8-9, 1-2)
KenPom rating: 162
Tempo: 266
Experience: 40
Continuity: 211
LMU lost four of its last five games.
Lions are 6-1 if they score 78+ points, 2-8 if they do not.
Lions are 1-3 vs teams ranked in top 100.
LMU lost its only true road game, 73-59 at Nevada


San Francisco (14-4, 3-0)
KenPom rating: 55
Tempo: 265
Experience: 214
Continuity: 208
San Francisco won its last six games, scoring 88.5 ppg.
Dons are 3-4 vs teams ranked in top 200
Dons are shooting 57.9% inside arc (#11)
USF is 14-4, but they’ve played schedule #318 so far.


San Francisco is 5-3 in last eight series games.
Teams split last four meetings played here.
WCC double digit home favorites are 7-0 ATS.
 

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