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Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, January 12

Friday’s 5 interesting games
Minnesota
@ Indiana (-3.5)
Minnesota (12-3, 3-1)
KenPom rating: 78
Tempo: 215
Experience: 177
Continuity: 178
Minnesota won its last seven games, last two by 2-3 points.
Gophers are 10-0 when they allow less than 70 points.
Minnesota is 3-2 vs top 100 teams.
Gophers are shooting 57.3% inside arc (#13 in country).


Indiana (11-5, 3-2)
KenPom rating: 94
Tempo: 94
Experience: 222
Continuity: 264
Indiana split its last eight games, after a 7-1 start.
Hoosiers are turning ball over 20.2% of time in Big 14 tilts (#14 of 14)
Hoosiers are shooting 54% inside arc (#57)
Indiana is 3-5 vs top 100 teams.


Indiana won last six series games.
Hoosiers won four of last five visits to Minnesota..
Big 14 home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-4 ATS.


Dayton @ Duquesne (-1.5)
Dayton (12-2, 2-0)
KenPom rating: 31
Tempo: 358
Experience: 77
Continuity: 190
Dayton won its last nine games.
Dayton gave up 59-60 points in first two A-15 games.
Flyers are shooting 40.5% on arc (#6)
Flyers are #301 team in country on defensive boards.
Dayton is 4-2 against top 125 teams.


Duquesne (9-5, 0-2)
KenPom rating: 104
Tempo: 186
Experience: 28
Continuity: 115
Dukes lost last three D-I games, giving up 81-80-72 points.
Duquesne is 2-3 vs teams in top 100.
Dukes are shooting 33.9% on the arc (#155)
Duquesne is getting 42.7% of its points on arc (#59)


Dayton won nine of last ten series games.
Flyers won five of last seven visits to Duquesne.
A-15 home teams are 3-7 ATS, when spread is 4 or less points.


Fairfield (-1.5) @ Niagara
Fairfield (9-6, 3-1)
KenPom rating: 191
Tempo: 106
Experience: 118
Continuity: 244
Fairfield won its first eight games, after a 1-6 start.
Five of those eight wins came on the road.
Stags scored 88-93-82 points in its three MAAC wins.
Fairfield is 7-2 vs teams ranked outside top 200.


Niagara (6-8, 2-2)
KenPom rating: 288
Tempo: 212
Experience: 150
Continuity: 325
Niagara won its last three games, after a 3-8 start.
Eagles are 1-4 against teams in top 200.
Niagara has #327 eFG% defense in country.
Niagara is shooting 37.2% on arc (#39)


Niagara won six of last nine series games.
Fairfield lost three of last four visits to Niagara.
MAAC home teams are 7-3 ATS, when spread is 4 or less points.


Nebraska @ Iowa (-3.5)
Nebraska (13-3, 3-2)
KenPom rating: 39
Tempo: 136
Experience: 49
Continuity: 175
Nebraska won six of its last seven games.
Cornhuskers upset Purdue in their last game Tuesday.
Nebraska is 4-3 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Cornhuskers have #34 eFG% defense in country.


Iowa (9-6, 1-3)
KenPom rating: 51
Tempo: 36
Experience: 163
Continuity: 155
Iowa allowed 87-90-83 points in its Big 14 losses.
Hawkeyes are 2-6 vs teams ranked in top 100.
In four Big 14 games, Iowa is #14 team on defensive boards.
In four Big 14 games, Iowa is shooting 45.4% inside arc (#12 of 14)


Nebraska beat Iowa twice LY (4-11 vs Iowa from 2013-22)
Cornhuskers lost eight of last nine visits to Iowa.
Big 14 home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-4 ATS.


Boise State @ Nevada (-6.5)
Boise State (11-4, 2-0)
KenPom rating: 58
Tempo: 139
Experience: 139
Continuity: 74
Boise won seven of its last eight D-I games.
Broncos won first two MW games, by 9-7 points.
Broncos are 4-4 vs top 100 teams.
Boise is #23 team in country on defensive boards.


Nevada (15-1, 2-0)
KenPom rating: 34
Tempo: 202
Experience: 6
Continuity: 40
Nevada gave up 54-57 points in winning first two MW games.
Wolf Pack is 2-1 vs teams ranked in top 100
Nevada is getting 25% of points on foul line (#10)
Wolf Pack has #27 eFG% defense in country.


Home side won seven of last meetings.
Boise State won four of last five series games.
Broncos lost seven of last eight visits to Reno.
MW single digit favorites are 6-3 ATS
 

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Saturday’s 6-pack:
Six actors who appeared in Batman (TV show) and the original Magnum PI:
— Elisha Cook
— Howard Duff
— Alan Hale
— Cesar Romero
— Barbara Rush
— Jill St John

Quote of the Day
“The difficult part is, if you guys could know, it’s really hard because they’re not football people. They’re not coaches, and so to get to the real details of it is really difficult for other people.”
Pete Carroll

Saturday’s quiz
Who played QB for the Rams, the first time they played in a Super Bowl?

Friday’s quiz
Wayne Gretzky played 8 games for the Indianapolis Racers in the WHA, then they traded him to the Edmonton Oilers, because the Racers were having financial issues.

Thursday’s quiz
Jim Mora Jr was the coach of the Seahawks, before Pete Carroll. He is now the coach at UConn.

***********************************************

Saturday’s Den: An early look at mid-major conferences……

Early in conference play, we’re looking at some mid-major leagues…….
— Missouri Valley
Five teams are tied for first, with a 4-1 conference mark.
Looks like the third straight year the MVC will be a one-bid league.
Home favorites of 8 or less points are 10-5 ATS.
Home underdogs are 5-4 ATS.

— West Coast
Gonzaga is ranked #26 by KenPom; last time they finished that low for a season? 2011.
Zags had their 26-game win streak vs Santa Clara snapped by the Broncos Thursday.
Saint Mary’s was only 9-6 in pre-conference play; they’re no lock for an at-large bid.
Home teams are 9-3 ATS in conference play.

— Western Athletic
Finished as #11 league LY, its best ranking since 2010; they’re #14 this year.
Grand Canyon is the #63 team in country; no one else is ranked in top 110.
Home favorites of 5+ points are 3-9 ATS.
Home underdogs are 7-2 ATS.

— Southern
Samford and Western Carolina are tied for first, with 3-0 SoCon marks.
Favorites are 12-2 ATS, 8-2 at home, 4-0 on road.
Furman was 50-20 the last two years; they’re off to a slow 7-9 start TY.
40.3% of shots in SoCon games are 3-pointers, 5th-highest % of any league.

— Big West
Irvine (5-0) and Cal-San Diego (4-0) are lone unbeatens in league play.
Cal-Northridge is 12-4; they haven’t had a winning season since 2009.
Santa Barbara is only 2-3 in Big West; they’re turning ball over 21.4% of time in league play.
Home favorites are 6-9 ATS, home underdogs are 4-6.

— Sun Belt
Average of 70.7 possessions/game, 4th-fastest tempo of any league.
James Madison is off to a 15-1 start, with a win at Michigan State.
Home favorites of 6 or fewer points are 5-2 ATS.
Home underdogs are 3-8 ATS.

Baseball Fact of the Day: In 1968, Dodgers’ P Don Drysdale had a streak of 58.2 consecutive scoreless IP; he finished with a 2.15 ERA that season, but his record was only 14-12.

Word of the Day: Quagmire- a situation that is hard to escape because there is no easy solution.

— Summit
St Thomas is 12-6, #133 team; three years ago, they were a Division III team.
Last 3 years, Oral Roberts was 67-28; their coach/best player bolted, now they’re 8-8.
South Dakota State has been in only 1 of last 5 NCAA tourneys, but they’re 12-4 this year.
Home favorites of 7 or fewer points are 1-6 ATS

— Big Sky
Weber State, Eastern Washington, Montana are only top 200 teams in league.
Big Sky teams are shooting 37.9% on arc in league games (#3)
Home favorites are 6-4 ATS.
Big Sky hasn’t won an NCAA Tourney game since 2006 (Montana).

— America East
Vermont is 12-5; they’ve been in four of last six NCAA Tournaments.
Last 1.5 years, Mass-Lowell is 37-12, its first two winning years at D-I level.
72.6 possessions/game; so far this season, this league is playing fastest tempo.
Albany fired a coach who won 5 league titles; they’re 30-48 since then, 13-23 in league.

— Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb, Stetson, Kennesaw State are only top 200 teams in league.
41.3% of the shots in this league are 3’s, #2 in country.
Eastern Kentucky was 4-9 in pre-conference; they’re 3-0 in A-Sun games.
Stetson is making 82.6% of its foul shots, best % in country.

— Southland
#90 McNeese State is only Southland team ranked in top 250.
McNeese is coached by former VCU/LSU coach Will Wade (211-101 career record)
Cowboys have road wins this year, at VCU, UAB and Michigan.
McNeese is shooting 41.1% on arc, #2 in country.

— Patriot League
Right now, they’re #30 league, their worst ranking in last 27 years.
#172 Colgate is only Patriot team ranked in top 275 in country.
Lafayette is 3-0 in Patriot games; they were 1-12 in pre-conference.
Last Patriot team to win NCAA tourney game; 2016- Holy Cross won a First Four tilt.

— We’re starting something a little different this week; on the college basketball page, I’ll post info on five of every day’s most interesting games.
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, January 13

Saturday’s 5 interesting games

St John’s
@ Creighton (-7.5)
St John’s (12-4, 4-1)
KenPom rating: 35
Tempo: 74
Experience: 5
Continuity: 329
St John’s won its last four games, scoring 81.5 ppg.
Red Storm is grabbing 41.2% of its missed shots (#3)
St John’s is 4-2 vs top 50 teams.
St John’s losses this year are by 16-7-6-4 points.


Creighton (12-4, 3-2)
KenPom rating: 13
Tempo: 258
Experience: 12
Continuity: 35
Creighton won its last three games, giving up 60-60-58 points.
Bluejays are shooting 62.2% inside arc (#3)
Bluejays are 12-0 if they score 69+ points, 0-4 if they do not.
Creighton is 4-3 vs top 50 teams.


Creighton won last six series games.
St John’s lost last four visits to Omaha, by 12-18-23-28 points.
Big East home favorites of 6+ points are 3-9 ATS.


Houston (-3.5) @ TCU
Houston (14-1, 1-1)
KenPom rating: 1
Tempo: 337
Experience: 105
Continuity: 123
Houston lost its last game, 57-53 at Iowa State.
Cougars are forcing turnovers 27.2% of time (#1)
Houston also has #1 eFG% defense in country.
Houston is 4-1 against top 100 teams.


TCU (12-3, 1-1)
KenPom rating: 28
Tempo: 29
Experience: 3
Continuity: 134
TCU is 1-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 8-13-2 points.
Frogs are forcing turnovers 22.8% of time (#12)
TCU is #31 team in country on offensive boards.
TCU is 3-3 if it allows 74+ points, 9-0 if they allow less than 74.


These teams haven’t met since 2012.
Big X home underdogs are 3-1 ATS.


Alabama @ Mississippi State (-2.5)
Alabama (10-5, 2-0)
KenPom rating: 8
Tempo: 40
Experience: 69
Continuity: 276
Alabama won its last four games, three of them by 27+ points.
Alabama split two road tilts (L82-85 Creighton/W78-75 Vandy)
Alabama has #4 eFG% in country.
Crimson Tide is 4-5 vs teams ranked in top 100.


Mississippi State (12-3, 1-1)
KenPom rating: 25
Tempo: 169
Experience: 60
Continuity: 54
Miss State won six of its last seven games.
Bulldogs are 5-1 against teams in top 100.
Miss State has #10 eFG% defense in country.
Miss State is turning ball over 19% of time (#255)


Alabama won seven of last eight series games.
Crimson Tide beat MSU 72-49 in SEC tourney LY.
Alabama lost four of last six visits to Starkville.
SEC single digit favorites are 3-6 ATS this season.


San Diego State @ New Mexico (-3.5)
San Diego State (14-2, 3-0)
KenPom rating: 21
Tempo: 217
Experience: 52
Continuity: 126
San Diego State won its last six D-I games.
Aztecs are 3-0 in MW, winning by 27-11-3 points.
San Diego State is 6-2 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Aztecs are 5-1 in games decided by 6 or less points, or in OT.


New Mexico (13-3, 1-2)
KenPom rating: 43
Tempo: 17
Experience: 71
Continuity: 262
New Mexico lost two of last three games, after a 12-1 start.
Lobos are 1-3 vs teams ranked in top 100.
New Mexico is forcing turnovers 22.1% of time (#19)
Lobos are shooting 68.5% on foul line (#275)


San Diego State won six of last eight series games.
Aztecs lost three of last five visits to Albuquerque.
Mountain West home favorites are 5-3 ATS.


Saint Mary’s (-5.5) @ Santa Clara
Saint Mary’s (12-6, 3-0)
KenPom rating: 46
Tempo: 351
Experience: 184
Continuity: 38
Saint Mary’s won four in row, nine of last ten games.
Gaels have #26 eFG% defense.
Gaels are 3-4 vs top 125 teams.
Saint Mary’s is #6 team in country on offensive boards.


Santa Clara (12-6, 3-0)
KenPom rating: 109
Tempo: 77
Experience: 170
Continuity: 322
Santa Clara is coming off of its upset of Gonzaga.
Broncos are 4-3 vs teams ranked in top 100
Santa Clara is 11-1 when it allows less than 80 points.
First three WCC opponents have shot 19.7% on arc vs Broncos.


Saint Mary’s is 5-3 in last eight series games.
Gaels won six of last seven visits to Santa Clara.
WCC home underdogs are 4-2 ATS
 

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