NCAA MEN'S BASKETBALL NOTES, NEWS OPINIONS AND BEST BETS THRU MARCH MADNESS !

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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting NFL spreads for Week 15:
— Chargers @ Las Vegas (-3)
— Vikings @ Cincinnati (-3.5)
— Steelers @ Indianapolis (-2.5)
— Broncos @ Detroit (-5)
— Jets @ Miami (-10.5)
— Falcons (-3) @ Carolina

Quote of the Day
“This is the best decision for me and my future. It was my lifelong dream to play quarterback at North Carolina, and I get a chance to check off another dream and play quarterback in the NFL.”
North Carolina QB Drake Maye, who is skipping his college team’s bowl game

Tuesday’s quiz
What team won the first two Super Bowls?

Monday’s quiz
Alex Smith was the Chiefs’ starting QB before Patrick Mahomes.

Sunday’s quiz
Cal-Irvine’s basketball team is known as the Anteaters.

**************************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..

Giants 24, Packers 22
Giants drove 57 yards, kicked game-winning 37-yard FG with 0:02 left.
Giants won their last three games, all as an underdog.
Giants gained 367 total yards, their most since Week 2.
Last nine games, Giants are +14 in turnovers.
Last five games, Green Bay gave up 170.4 rushing yards/game.
Packers are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Right now, there are five teams tied for the last playoff slot in NFC.

— Titans 28, Dolphins 27
Dolphins led 27-13 with 3:00 left in the game.
Titans then scored two TD’s in 0:53 span, on drives of 75-61 yards.
Titans are minus-7 in turnovers (9-16) so far this season.
Opponents’ team total: over 7-3-3
Miami’s first TD was an awful pick-6 by Levis.
Dolphins’ two offensive TD’s were on short drives of 7-12 yards.
Miami is 2-4 when it scores less than 31 points.
Right now, Miami is #2-seed in AFC, leading AFC East by two games.

— I’m a fan of these Monday NFL doubleheaders, think they’re preferable to Thursday night NFL games- football wasn’t meant to be played on three days’ rest, but Thursday games must bring in major TV $$$, and $$$ always wins out.

— We mentioned how Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700M contract last week; well it turns out, $680M of that money will be paid in deferred payments from 2034-43, lowering the Dodgers’ payroll and potential tax burden right now.
Ohtani makes around $40M a year in endorsements, so he doesn’t need the $$$ right now, and deferring the payments makes it easier for the Dodgers to assemble a winning team next year.

— By way of comparison, according to FanGraphs, Oakland A’s total payroll last season was a paltry $58,505,484, meaning Ohtani is going to make more $$$ than the whole Oakland team made last season. Awesome.
Would be kind of funny if after all this talk about Ohtani, the Angels made the playoffs in 2024, since they never made the playoffs with Ohtani.

— Pacers 131, Pistons 123- Detroit has lost 20 games in a row; they’re 6-14 against the spread in those 20 losses.

— Pet Peeve of the Day- At least three QB’s with NFL aspirations are skipping their teams bowl games: USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, Notre Dame’s Sam Hartman.
Williams/Hartman transferred to their current school, are now skipping out on them too, so the word “loyalty” is apparently an anachronism now.

— Word of the Day: Anachronism- a person, thing, or idea that exists outside of its time in history, Something that is conspicuously old-fashioned.

— College quarterbacks on the move:
Baylor QB Blake Shapen transfers to Mississippi State.
Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel bolts to Oregon.
North Texas QB Chandler Rogers moves on to California.
Michigan State QB Sam Leavitt transfers to Arizona State.
Boise State QB Taylor Green jumps from Boise State to Arkansas.

— NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder is off to a fast 15-7 start; their last winning season was four years ago, so they appear to be a franchise on the rise.
Here’s the thing: over the next seven years, Oklahoma City has 37 draft picks!!!! What the hell will they do with all of them? Teams only have 15 guys on their roster; if you have a good team, your roster will be pretty well set. Will be interesting to see how they handle all that.

— There are seven unbeaten teams left in college basketball.

— Troy State football coach Jon Sumrall is moving on to Tulane; Trojans are 11-2 this season, are playing Duke in the Birmingham Bowl, but their coach is moving up the financial ladder. Tulane coach Willie Fritz has bolted to the Houston Cougars.

— Vikings’ 3-0 win in Las Vegas Sunday was the 7th NFL game in the Super Bowl era to end 3-0, but this game was indoors- the others were all played in cruddy weather.

— By my count, 54 different quarterbacks have started an NFL game this season, and that count will rise this weekend, with 3-4 more teams likely to start a new QB, due to injuries.

— Major league pitcher Marco Gonzales had a weird week last week:
Last Sunday, he got traded from Seattle to Atlanta.
Two days later, he got dealt to Pittsburgh.
Good news is that he’s probably the Pirates’ #2 starter.
More good news, he’s going to make $12M in 2024.
Bad news is…….well, he’s on the Pirates instead of a good team.
 

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NCAAB

Tuesday, December 12


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Trend Report
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TUESDAY, DECEMBER 12

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
LIU at UMASS06:00 PMLIU +18.0
O 149.5
+500 +500
MONM at HALL06:30 PMHALL -15.0
U 141.5
+500 +500
UMBC at SPU07:00 PMUMBC +7.5
O 143.5
+500 +500
NCCU at NCAT07:00 PMNCCU -4.0
U 149.0
+500 +500
BRY at CIN07:00 PMCIN -20.5
U 154.5
+500 +500
ARPB at USF07:00 PMUSF -17.0
U 162.0
+500 +500
HOF at DUKE07:00 PMDUKE -15.0
U 144.5
+500 +500
UTM at NCST07:00 PMNCST -20.0
U 162.5
+500 +500
WKU at WRST07:00 PMWRST -6.0
U 165.5
+500 +500
VMI at RAD07:00 PMVMI +14.5
O 145.0
+500 +500
ALCN at MD07:00 PMMD -23.5
O 143.5
+500 +500
GASO at TENN07:00 PMGASO +34.0
O 144.5
+500 +500
SELA at LT07:00 PMLT -13.0
U 134.0
+500 +500
ULM at SHSU07:30 PMSHSU -8.5
U 138.0
+500 +500
PEAY at SIU08:00 PMPEAY +11.5
U 128.0
+500 +500
PV at UNI08:00 PMPV +13.0
O 145.5
+500 +500
WIGB at UIC08:00 PMUIC -12.0
U 131.0
+500 +500
INDPU at MINN08:00 PMMINN -23.0
U 139.5
+500 +500
COPP at GTWN08:30 PMGTWN -22.0
U 139.5
+500 +500
NWST at BSU09:00 PMNWST +24.0
O 142.5
+500 +500
ORU at TTU09:00 PMTTU -13.0
O 143.0
+500 +500
CALBA at ORE10:00 PMORE -12.0
O 137.5
+500 +500
 

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Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks
DateW-L-T%UnitsRecord
12/12/202321-23-047.72%-2150Detail
12/11/202311-7-061.11%+1650Detail
12/10/202322-28-144.12%-4400Detail
12/09/202387-106-645.23%-14800Detail
12/08/20236-10-037.50%-2500Detail
12/07/20237-3-070.00%+1850Detail
12/06/202327-39-040.91%-7950Detail
12/05/202329-15-065.91%+6250Detail
12/04/20237-3-070.00%+1850Detail
12/03/202318-7-072.00%+5150Detail
12/02/202331-26-154.31%+1200Detail
12/01/202325-26-049.02%-1800Detail
 

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DECEMBER'S COLLEGE HOOPS BEST BETS !

12/12/2023.......................11 - 15..............................42.30%..........................- 27.50
12/11/2023......................... 9 - 5................................64.28%..........................+ 18.50
12/10/2023.........................14 - 20..............................41.17%..........................- 40.00
12/09/2023.........................49 - 60..............................44.95%..........................- 85.00
12/08/2023..............................6 - 8..............................42.85%...........................- 14.00
12/07/2023..............................6 - 3..............................66.66%..........................+ 13.50
12/06/2023............................23 - 27...........................46.00%...........................-20.00
12/05/2023............................16 -11............................59.25%...........................+ 19.50
12/04/2023................................6 - 2............................75.00%...........................+ 19.00
12/03/2023..............................18 - 7...........................72.00%............................+ 51.50
12/02/2023.............................24 - 12.........................66.66%.............................+ 54.00
12/01/2023.................................9 - 7..........................56.25%..............................+ 6.50

TOTALS..................................191 - 177.........................51.90%............................ - 4.00
 

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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting NFL spreads for Week 15:
— Chiefs (-9.5) @ New England
— 49ers (-13.5) @ Arizona
— Commanders @ Rams (-6.5)
— Cowboys @ Buffalo (-2.5)
— Ravens (-3.5) @ Jacksonville
— Eagles (-4) @ Seattle

Quote of the Day
“It’s an honor to be who we are.”
Joseph Campbell

Wednesday’s quiz
Since 2006, Chargers have started only 3 quarterbacks; Philip Rivers, Justin Herbert and who else?
Hint: He is still in the NFL, as a backup QB

Tuesday’s quiz
Green Bay Packers won the first two Super Bowls, beating Chiefs/Raiders.

Monday’s quiz
Alex Smith was the Chiefs’ starting QB before Patrick Mahomes.

*******************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..

— Be careful when handicapping college football bowl games; players are opting out of bowls to avoid injury/get ready for the NFL Draft. There have also been a few coaching changes involved with bowl teams.
This is from Brad Powers; teams with most starters opting out of bowls:
11- Texas A&M, Oregon State (both head coaches are gone)
10- James Madison (head coach bolted)
9- North Carolina, Notre Dame (both QB’s bolted)
7- Miami, Kansas State
6- Clemson, Duke (Duke’s QB/HC both bolted)
5- Ohio U, Western Kentucky

— Our write-ups for the first eight bowl games are posted on the College Football page.

— Duke QB Riley Leonard bolted to Notre Dame this week; the Fighting Irish are now like those rich baseball teams who poach the best players off less wealthy teams- they’re just going to buy a veteran QB every year.

— If you wager on season-long over/under win totals, the LA Chargers clinched their under bet again this year, 5th year in a row they came in under their win total. Not good.

— I mentioned couple weeks ago how the Arizona Cardinals lost the field position battle in their first 12 games, then of course they went out and won field position by 13 yards in their win at Pittsburgh in Week 13. You win field position by 10+ yards, you generally win the game.
Thru Week 13, NFL teams who won field position by 10+ yards were 51-3 in those games.

— San Francisco Giants signed Korean OF Jung Hoo Lee to a 6-year, $113M contract; he played the last seven years for the Kiwoom Heroes, hitting .340- he was the KBO’s MVP in 2022. He is 25 years old; his father was also an MVP in the KBO.

— Mets’ IF Ronny Mauricio tore his ACL Sunday while playing in the Dominican Winter League; he hit .248 in 26 games as a rookie for the Mets this past year.

— Kansas City Royals are signing P Seth Lugo to a 3-year, $45M deal; he was 8-7, 3.57 in 26 starts for San Diego last year, his first season since 2017 as a starter.

— RIP to Vic Davalillo, who passed away this week in Venezuela. Davalillo played 16 years in the major leagues, winning World Series rings with the Pirates (’71), A’s (’73). He hit .279 in his career, and made the All-Star Game in 1965 for Cleveland.
An outfielder, Davalillo played for six different teams over three decades. RIP, sir.

— Word of the Day: Ambidextrous- a person who can use their right/left hands equally well.

College basketball knowledge………
— Some of the teams playing the fastest tempo in America:

3- Samford
4- Western Kentucky
5- Arizona
6- Tulane
Some of the teams playing the slowest tempo in America:
362- Towson
361- Virginia
360- Middle Tennessee
359- St Thomas

— Teams turning the ball over the most:
362- Stephen F Austin 25.2% of time
360- Siena 24.9%
359- Sacramento State 24.5%
358- Wyoming 23.8%

Teams turning the ball over the least:
2- Richmond 11.7%
3- Kentucky 11.9%
4- Northwestern 12.0%
5- Denver 12.8%

— Teams with best shooting %age inside the arc:
1- UConn 64.2%
2- Tulane 63.5%
3- Creighton 62.7%
4- Cornell 62.3%

— Teams getting highest %age of points on the arc:
43.4%- Creighton
42.7%- St Joe’s
42.2%- Georgia Southern
41.3%- Cal-Riverside

— Teams getting highest %age of points on the foul line:
28.2%- Grand Canyon
27.9%- Tulane
26.8%- Maryland
26.8%- Nevada

— Teams whose subs play the most minutes:
Samford
Vanderbilt
Stephen F Austin
Auburn
Teams whose subs play the least minutes:
Princeton
West Virginia
Oral Roberts
Southern Mississippi

— Teams with best continuity:
Columbia
Drexel
Marquette
Florida Atlantic
Teams with least continuity:
New Mexico State
Iona
Utah State
Idaho
 

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NCAAB

Wednesday, December 13


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Trend Report
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WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 13

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
NORF at STON06:30 PMNORF +2.0
O 137.5
+500 +500
FIU at FAU07:00 PMFAU -23.5
U 154.5
+500 +500
NORAL at CHSO07:00 PMNORAL -5.0+500
MRSH at TOL07:00 PMTOL -8.0+500
APP at QNC07:00 PMO 149.0+500
MURR at MSST07:30 PMMURR +16.5
O 136.5
+500 +500
UTSA at UALR07:30 PMUALR -6.5+500
ARST at LOU08:00 PMARST +3.5
O 150.0
+500 +500
UNCA at AUB08:00 PMAUB -19.5
U 152.0
+500 +500
ALST at LSU08:00 PMLSU -21.0+500
LONG at MILW08:00 PMLONG -2.5+500
UAB at AAMU08:00 PMUAB -13.0
U 153.0
+500 +500
TNST at LIB08:00 PMLIB -14.5+500
USM at MCNS08:00 PMMCNS -6.0+500
CHS at NW08:00 PMNW -24.5+500
EKY at ULL08:30 PMULL -2.0+500
DEN at BYU09:00 PMDEN +26.5
O 157.0
+500 +500
CREI at UNLV09:00 PMCREI -12.5+500
SEA at SF10:00 PMSF -9.5
O 135.0
+500 +500
WEB at NEV10:00 PMNEV -9.0
U 138.0
+500 +500
USU at SCU10:00 PMSCU +1.5
U 151.0
+500 +500
 

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Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks
DateW-L-T%UnitsRecord
12/13/202319-12-061.29%+2900Detail
12/12/202321-23-047.73%-2150Detail
12/11/202311-7-061.11%+1650Detail
12/10/202322-28-144.12%-4400Detail
12/09/202387-109-644.55%-16450Detail
12/08/20236-10-037.50%-2500Detail
12/07/20237-3-070.00%+1850Detail
12/06/202327-39-040.91%-7950Detail
12/05/202329-15-065.91%+6250Detail
12/04/20237-3-070.00%+1850Detail
12/03/202318-7-072.00%+5150Detail
12/02/202331-26-154.31%+1200Detail
12/01/202325-26-049.02%-1800Detail
 

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DECEMBER'S COLLEGE HOOPS BEST BETS !

12/13/2023.......................14 - 8.................................63.63%.........................+ 26.00
12/12/2023.......................11 - 15..............................42.30%..........................- 27.50
12/11/2023......................... 9 - 5................................64.28%..........................+ 18.50
12/10/2023.........................14 - 20..............................41.17%..........................- 40.00
12/09/2023.........................49 - 60..............................44.95%..........................- 85.00
12/08/2023..............................6 - 8..............................42.85%...........................- 14.00
12/07/2023..............................6 - 3..............................66.66%..........................+ 13.50
12/06/2023............................23 - 27...........................46.00%...........................-20.00
12/05/2023............................16 -11............................59.25%...........................+ 19.50
12/04/2023................................6 - 2............................75.00%...........................+ 19.00
12/03/2023..............................18 - 7...........................72.00%............................+ 51.50
12/02/2023.............................24 - 12.........................66.66%.............................+ 54.00
12/01/2023.................................9 - 7..........................56.25%..............................+ 6.50

TOTALS..................................205 - 185.........................52.56%............................ + 22.00
 

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Thursday’s 6-pack:
College hoop teams who have played the easiest schedules so far:
— TCU
— Samford
— Cal-Northridge
— Longwood
— Georgetown
— Presbyterian

Quote of the Day
“When you watch the film, penalties in critical moments, turnovers in critical moments. Yeah, it’s frustrating, but at the same time, we know a lot of it is self-inflicted, and we know that, moving forward, it can be fixed and we have the guys to be able to get it fixed.”
Chiefs’ TE Travis Kelce

Thursday’s quiz
What actress played Mrs Griswold (Chevy Chase’s wife) in the Vacation movies?

Wednesday’s quiz
Since 2006, Chargers have started only 3 quarterbacks; Philip Rivers, Justin Herbert and Tyrod Taylor. Easton Stick becomes the 4th Thursday night.

Tuesday’s quiz
Green Bay Packers won the first two Super Bowls, beating Chiefs/Raiders.

************************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

— There was a cool moment Tuesday night that unfortunately didn’t get onto TV until about 1:15am, during the NBA postgame show on TNT.
TNT’s Ernie Johnson was inducted into the Sports Broadcasting Hall of Fame in New York City on Tuesday night; when you listened to the people on TNT talk about him, with a universal reverence from people who aren’t usually that way, it was touching.
Ernie Johnson is so well-loved/respected that Shaquille O’Neal, Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley showed up at the award ceremony unannounced, to surprise their partner on TNT.
All the people working on TNT that night were wearing t-shirts with Ernie’s picture on it; in an era where people can’t agree about anything, it was great to see a person honored who everyone loves/respects.

— In the NFL, “explosive plays” are defined by:
Running plays of 10+ yards
Passing plays of 20+ yards
Teams that have allowed the fewest explosive plays this season:
54- Vikings
57- Dolphins
59- Patriots
60- Bears, 49ers

Teams that have allowed the most explosive plays this season:
96- Bengals
85- Giants
84- Packers
83- Broncos

— There is a fine line between success/failure in the NFL:
Best records in games decided by 8 or fewer points:
Eagles 7-1
Steelers 7-2
Browns, Colts 5-2
Lions, Giants 4-2

Worst records in games decided by 8 or fewer points:
Panthers 1-5
Patriots 3-7
Cardinals 1-4
Bills 3-6

— NFL teams who won the field position battle by 10+ yards are 51-3 this season; the three teams that lost:
Vikings, Week 3 vs Chargers
Giants, Week 5 at Miami
Buccaneers, Week 9 at Houston

— NFL announced that there will be a regular season game in Brazil next season, the NFL’s first game in South America. It is likely that the Miami Dolphins will be one of the teams playing; it is likely the game would be in Week 1 next season.
Dolphins have exclusive Brazilian marketing rights for NFL stuff, which is why it is likely that they’ll be one of the teams playing in the game.

— Giants’ QB Tommy DeVito is making $44,000/game this season; he’ll make $915,000 next year, while the Giants pay injured starting QB Daniel Jones $40M a year. Awkward.

— Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall bolted to NC State, after starting for the Chanticleers for the last four seasons.

— Word of the Day: Mercenary- a person primarily concerned with making money at the expense of ethics.

— Shohei Ohtani will make $2M a year for the next ten years, then $68M a year from 2034-43; meanwhile, Mookie Betts also has a ton of deferments in his contract:
2033-37- $8M/year
2038-39- $10M/year
2040-44- $11M/year
In 2043, Betts/Ohtani will bank a combined $79M; Betts will be 50 years old, Ohtani 48.

— Do the agents for these players have their fees deferred too? If Ohtani’s agent is banking 3%, which is normal, his take is $21M, but he’ll only see $600,000 of it in the next ten years.

— Ohtani doesn’t have an opt out, by the way, unless president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman or controlling owner Mark Walter loses his role with the Dodgers. Then he would.

— MLB Network needs to show more baseball games during the off-season; what else is there? Promote your sport; show Ohtani, show Trout, show some Japanese games with this Yamamoto guy pitching. Stop with the goofy talk shows, unless they’re talking about free agent signings or trades- anything else is a waste of time.

— UNLV 79, Creighton 64
Bluejays shot 8-29 on the arc; they were shooting 40.3% coming into the game.
Keylan Boone scored 10 points off the bench in his UNLV debut; his brother Kalib scored 25 points, with 7 rebounds, 4 steals. UNLV had great energy in this game.

— Chicago State 75, Northwestern 73:
Huge win for the 4-9 Cougars, who had been 0-3 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 29-16-9 points.
Northwestern led this game by 10 points in first half; how do you beat Purdue and lose this game?
Chicago State’s three previous wins were over teams #336-347-244

— Arkansas State 75, Louisville 63:
Louisville was 4-28 last year, is 4-6 this year; hard to believe that Kenny Payne will still be the Louisville coach next season.
Arkansas State is 4-7; they shot 5-25 on the arc and still won.

— RIP to actor Andre Braugher, who passed away this week at age 61; I remember him from his role as Detective Frank Pembleton on Homicide back in the 90’s- he was great in that show, which was set in Baltimore. RIP, sir.
 

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WISCONSIN is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points in the last 3 seasons.

ST THOMAS (MN) is 17-6 ATS (10.4 Units) after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

THE CITADEL is 6-23 ATS (-19.3 Units) after playing a home game in the last 3 seasons.

FLORIDA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games in the last 3 seasons.

FURMAN is 33-56 ATS (-28.6 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.

GRAMBLING is 17-5 ATS (11.5 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week in the last 3 seasons.

LAMAR is 7-0 Over (7 Units) after 2 consecutive non-conference games in the current season.
 

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NCAAB

Thursday, December 14


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Trend Report
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Bethany-WV @ Youngstown State
Bethany-WV
No trends to report
Youngstown State
Youngstown State is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home

The Citadel @ College of Charleston
The Citadel
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of The Citadel's last 7 games on the road
The Citadel is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing College of Charleston
College of Charleston
College of Charleston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing The Citadel
College of Charleston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against The Citadel

Jacksonville State @ Wisconsin
Jacksonville State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville State's last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wisconsin's last 7 games at home

Saint Mary-of-the-Woods @ Morehead State
Saint Mary-of-the-Woods
No trends to report
Morehead State
Morehead State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

Furman @ Tulane
Furman
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Furman's last 5 games on the road
Furman is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tulane
Tulane is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tulane's last 10 games at home

Birmingham Southern @ New Orleans
Birmingham Southern
No trends to report
New Orleans
No trends to report

St. Thomas (MN) @ Marquette
St. Thomas (MN)
No trends to report
Marquette
Marquette is 22-2 SU in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Marquette's last 6 games at home

Louisiana-Monroe @ Lamar
Louisiana-Monroe
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 6 games on the road
Louisiana-Monroe is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Lamar
Lamar
No trends to report

Grambling State @ Drake
Grambling State
No trends to report
Drake
Drake is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Mayville State @ South Dakota State
Mayville State
No trends to report
South Dakota State
South Dakota State is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
South Dakota State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home


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