NCAA Hoops

LowTide · Dec 12, 2004

1*UNLV+4
Fourth straight road game for UNLV,but the first three were close to home.Auburn has fared better than expected,but they rely too heavily on the three ball for me to back them.44% of Auburn's shots are trey attempts and they have to fall for Auburn to have a chance.The Tigers were 13-27 against Virginia and still lost.They were 18-41 against Temple and managed a 2 point win.What happens when they are off?They lose to Wofford at home.The Rebels will have 2 6'7 players on the wings so getting clean looks may be difficult.Blankson should run amok inside and Admundsen should be able to post some numbers as well.The Rebels have lost to 3 quality opponents and Auburn was lucky to beat Colorado State.I have the Rebels rated higher than the Rams and I think they will be locked in for this game.

jwblue · Dec 12, 2004

Good job early with I-C. UNLV hanging in there with Auburn.

IS

Budworth22 · Dec 12, 2004

Awesome Job today Lowtide.

Keep it up man. I think you may deserve the under the radar award of the year.
Bud

LowTide · Dec 13, 2004

For Tuesday 12/14

Thanks,Bud.

YTD 27-16 + 14.85%

2*Fordham + 19
Fordham can be play ugly-witness their loss to Holy Cross-,but they bounced back with a nice win over Fairfield.The main reason I am on this already-Villanova has struggled to get it going this year as they are averaging only 60 points on 41% shooting.I had this game capped at a significantly lower number and I cannot not see it do anything but drop.

LowTide · Dec 14, 2004

YTD 27-17+12.65%

Fordham was the absolute wrong side.My apologies to anyone who was on this.

1.5*Wisconsin-Milwaukee+8.5
Not that it has any merit,but my handicapping system has this line substantially lower.Wisconsin is having some trouble at the point position and it shows-turnovers are up and assists are down.Here we have another legitimate NCAA mid major taking on a power conference team.UWM is good shooting team with a balanced scoring attack and should give the Badgers all they want.This situation has worked well for me this year with Niagara covering against Providence and Wichita winning outright over the Friars.Let's try to bounce back from tonight's debacle.

I also like Northern Iowa,but I am going to wait and see if the line will go lower.

jwblue · Dec 15, 2004

I don't know what to make of Villanova this year. I thought they would have played a lot better than they have. I played them early this year a couple of times and got burned. Now when I go against them they bite me in the a**.

IS

LowTide · Dec 15, 2004

1.5*Arkansas State-1.5
Both of these teams like to play an up tempo game.Arkansas State shoots the ball substantially better,especially from behind the arc.They also handle the rock better and hit the boards.The Indians have always had the guard play,but the inside game has improved this year and they are 5-1 as a result.Their lone loss was to Memphis by 4 and they should handle an Eagle squad that is not as strong as in the past.

Budworth22 · Dec 15, 2004

I'm all over this

like stink on ****. Getem.
GL, Bud

LowTide · Dec 16, 2004

1*Ohio State+9
Liked the responses to my seperate thread on this game and I bit on +9 at ABC.

DUKE4LIFE · Dec 17, 2004

Help Please

Hello everyone, my name is Sean and I'm an avid sports fan from Canada. I have a few questions due to my current "unbelievable" losing streak. I just started gambling with a bookie in the last few months and I get accurate lines about 30 mins to an hour before the first action starts. Sometimes that sucks and sometimes it seems to help (with the new knowledge gained about drastic spread changes shortly before tip offs etc.) I can only get spreads for college b-ball full games, but I was on fire initially (honestly at a 70% clip). It seems the more research I put in the worse it gets. Since I've started using resources like this board, wagerline.com, cbssportsline.com, etc. etc. I've been getting killed! It occurred to me that earlier in the year CBB spreads were way off and now they seem bang on most nights. It also appears to me that most nights are 50/50 regarding winning bets against and for the spread. Is this a predictable guage or a fluke (ie. if the first say 5 games, for arguement sake, have only 1 winner with the spread (-)should I then hop on all of the remaining 5 favorites???) My main question is how can this be and exactly how much influence does Vegas have on the actual athletes? Also, how are they winning their money which they obviously are? I recently started fading the top five board on wagerline with minimal success due to a re-occurring trend that the majority is wrong 3/5's of the time. Basically I am looking for a winning system. The NBA forum may have found one that seems to be working. 53-3 so far and looking good again tonight, but college ball may be more succeptible to corruption. Anyway, I bet about 7 games a night and more on the weekends which might be a mistake I suppose (it was all good when I was calling 5 and 6 out of 7 in NCAA and NBA respectively). I usually weight my top picks with more dough, but misinformation and inconsistency are hurting me bad. For example, I had info saying Wafer was out tonight for Fla. St. Then there's the whole Ark. St. debacle. What the F! There is no way the Indians lose that game (especially not like that-ridiculous). Sorry to blabber on here, but are there any helpful tips that a successful gambler could pass my way. Should I continue losing the juice with an independent book or join one of these sites? Should I quit gambling all together or is there a way to win over the long run? Thanks and again sorry for the novel here. FRUSTRATED!

twjd · Dec 17, 2004

Duke, you gamble because its a challenge and its fun, if your not having fun or you are loosing more than you can afford then quit. On the other you can never win if you quit.

LowTide · Dec 17, 2004

YTD 28-19+10.35%

1*Clemson-13(1st half)
1*Clemson-23.5
I hesitate to post a game such as this and will have to say this barely qualified as a 1* play,but I decided to post as I would not mind hearing some more opinions on this game.The Citadel is always the bottom dwellar of the Southern Conference and when they step up in competition the results are not good.This year they lost by 35 at Georgetown and were down 21 at halftime.They are very small and most importantly(to me in games like this),are a horrible three point shooting team(25%).I am sure there are many wise gamblers who would not touch a **** game like this.What can I say,I am weak...

LowTide · Dec 17, 2004

For Saturday 12/18

2*Wichita State-4(-20)
The Shockers have demonstrated they do not mind coming to your place to deliver a beating as they already own road victories at Providence,Drake,and Austin Peay.On the other side,Tulsa already has home losses to Wright State and Oral Roberts.The students will not be hanging around to watch this beating.The Shockers are looking for national recognition and will not slip up here.

2*New Mexico-5(-20)
Tennessee has played the tough schedule,but I like the Lobos here.This game will probably be a track meet and the Lobos do everything a little better than the Vols,especially play defense.Every time I watch Tennessee(through the years),it just seems they cannot play 40 minutes of disciplined basketball. New Mexico is statiscally better in every category as you might expect due to the difference in schedule strength,but a few stats stick out.
McFagdon thinks he is all-world,but he is shooting 38%.
UT averages 12 assists and 16 turnovers a game.
UT's oppenents shooting percentages:
Xavier 49%
UNC 58%
Texas 52%(I know these are good teams,but come on)
Throw in a loss to UTC and a 6 point win over Wofford and I do not think the Vols can cover in one of the tougher venues.

1*George Washington-25.5
They hung 95 on Michigan state and 100 on Maryland.What are they going to do here?Will hit this in the first half as well.

1*St.Louis-2.5
This opened at 3.5 and somebody really liked Dayton.Despite the Billikens' lack of success,I like them here.The Flyers have played all but one game at home and theyactually shoot even worse than St.Louis (36% to 37%-Pinnacle has the total at 114) and that is hard to accomplish.St.Louis has had some tough losses at home and this looks like a prime spot to get a win.

Will also be playing Ball State

Looking for feedback on some TRAP CITY leans:
Illinois State+1
Loyola's leading scorer is questionable for one,but the Ramblers are respectable at home.

Pepperdine-1
I never trust a Paul Westphal team.Why should I here.

Pacific-10
Maybe not a trap,but I had this line at 14.

jwblue · Dec 17, 2004

Low Tide said:
YTD 28-19+10.35%

1*Clemson-13(1st half)
1*Clemson-23.5
I hesitate to post a game such as this and will have to say this barely qualified as a 1* play,but I decided to post as I would not mind hearing some more opinions on this game.The Citadel is always the bottom dwellar of the Southern Conference and when they step up in competition the results are not good.This year they lost by 35 at Georgetown and were down 21 at halftime.They are very small and most importantly(to me in games like this),are a horrible three point shooting team(25%).I am sure there are many wise gamblers who would not touch a **** game like this.What can I say,I am weak...

:aktion033

IS

Coast2Coast · Dec 18, 2004

Great stuff LT. You certainly have the Vols pegged. You asked for feedback so heres mine FWIW. Not sure Illinois State has shown they can win on the road, though they do have a talent edge (albeit a slim one) on the Ramblers. Talent edge doesn't necessarily result in road W's though, as you know. I had to laugh at your comment about Westphal. I have a "Don't bet Coaches list" posted on another site and Westphal is on it. So you know my answer to that question. Good luck to you.

Kapusta · Dec 18, 2004

LowTide-Like the card, like the RedBirds the Ramblers are garbage. Good Luck! :103631605

LowTide · Dec 18, 2004

1*George Washington-14.5(1st Half)
A lot of points for one half of basketball,but it should play out close to the Clemson-Citadel game last night except the Colonials like to push the tempo more.I expect GW to be up 20+ at halftime.

jwblue · Dec 18, 2004

Are you still playing Ball State at -9?

IS

DUKE4LIFE · Dec 18, 2004

looks good

just wanted to let everyone know that I quit quitting and I THINK that I'm back on track with a 4/5 college hoops night (lost UAB like everyone else-should have known better) and a 5/7 NBA sched. I like all the picks except St. Louis Low Tide (out of the 4 biggies). Also like Ill. St., UCLA, Zona and possibly Xavier. Might also go with Texas (especially if line moves up from current +8) and G-Tech -7 exposes the Zags tonight BIGTIME! Any thoughts? :suomi: