NBA Fantasy News 2011/2012

[HacheMan]

Week 7's Top NBA Pickups

Things have finally started to calm down in the NBA and it feels like there were fewer surprises last week as far as waiver-wire gems coming out of nowhere. However, Greivis Vasquez looks like he’s gained a serious role in New Orleans and is a guy who should be being gobbled up in most leagues right now. Guys who should already be owned include Anthony Morrow, Marcus Thornton, Landry Fields, Vince Carter and Michael Beasley, so they’re not included here.



Another guy not included here is Cleveland G/F Alonzo Gee. I only mention Gee because he’s grabbed four steals in each of his last two games, and hit double figures in scoring in both of them. Maybe he ends up taking over the starting shooting guard job, and if it happens, he could be worth picking up.



For those of you who have played the waiting game with Baron Davis, I’m sorry. I didn’t grab or hold him anywhere, and am thankful for that. As far as the other guys we’re waiting on, Manu Ginobili should be picked up and held now, while Brook Lopez looks like the next best bet. Zach Randolph’s return is a little murkier, and I’m not ready to sit on him yet. Actually, I’m not sitting on any of these guys, but if you want to, now’s the time to start checking them out.



As for the guys in China, I’m not rushing out to grab any of them, either. My guess is J.R. Smith and Wilson Chandler will have some value at some point, but who knows when or where? Kenyon Martin sounds like he could be the first one to show up on U.S. soil, but he’s just not a guy I need on any of my fantasy teams, and he wasn’t all that great in China, either. Especially now that we know Martin will be playing behind Blake Griffin. Have you thought about picking up Reggie Evans? I didn't think so, which is the role Martin will take over for the Clippers. I’m also not feeling Aaron Brooks.



As far as who to drop to make some of these moves, here is a list of some guys that have been dropped in my leagues recently; Gerald Henderson, Derrick Favors, Tayshaun Prince, Lamar Odom, DeJuan Blair, George Hill and Chandler Parsons. Prince is playing well again, and I rolled him out there for five games this week, but the Pistons play just three in Week 7, and he’s simply not a must-own player.



Chris Kaman and Spencer Hawes are a couple players generating a lot of frustration and questions in fantasy, as Kaman sits on the bench waiting to be traded, and Hawes is set to miss his 10^th straight game on Friday with an Achilles injury. I dumped Hawes in one league and am holding him in another, but there’s no telling when he’ll be back. Kaman is intriguing, as he could land in Indy or Houston, but both of those teams already have solid options at both center and power forward, so I’m not holding Kaman anywhere. If you can’t hold Hawes any longer and want to drop him, go for it. But if you’ve held on this long and there’s not a hot player you feel like you have to pick up, you might as well continue to hold.



No team plays five or two games in Week 7 for the first time this season. The Bobcats, Mavs, Pistons, Warriors, Hornets and Spurs have three games, while every other team in the league goes four times. In other words, with the exception of a few studs like Greg Monroe, Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry and Point Guards




Greivis Vasquez Hornets



Vasquez started for Jarrett Jack on Thursday, as Jack sat out with minor knee soreness. But he also came off the bench in the previous game and blew up for 20 points and 12 assists. He’s hit double figures in four straight games and is averaging nearly 13 points and seven assists, shooting over 50 percent from the floor, with three 3-pointers and three steals over his last five. Yes, he’ll take a hit when Jack and (eventually?) Eric Gordon are back, but if you have a player you don’t mind cutting, Vasquez looks like an automatic pickup right now. Especially since he could start at shooting guard until Gordon is finally ready.



Jerryd Bayless Raptors



Dwane Casey has struggled to make up his mind on what to do with the Raptors lineup since Andrea Bargnani went down again, but whether starting or coming off the bench, Bayless has carved out a niche for himself in the rotation. Over his last four games, two starts and two off the bench, he’s scored between 14 & 18 points and hit eight 3-pointers. He’s still worth keeping around despite coming off the bench, and will be an automatic start if Jose Calderon ever suffers an injury.



Mo Williams Clippers



Despite coming off the bench and having guys like Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups in the way, Williams has found a way to stay relevant. He’s averaging 14 points, 3.4 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.2 3-pointers over his last five games, and should continue to do so going forward.



Roddy Beaubois Mavericks



Roddy Buckets has been filling in for Jason Kidd and while Rick Carlisle has said he’s going to stick with Kidd as his starter, Buckets is going to get run. He’s also the best shot-blocking guard in the league, and sits at 13 points, six dimes, 0.8 steals, 2.2 blocks and a 3-pointer per game over his last five.



Iman Shumpert Knicks



I would rather hold Shumpert over Baron Davis, and despite Mike D’Antoni saying recently that Shumpert isn’t his point guard, he’s started there in two straight after coming off the bench on Tuesday. Shumpert’s averaging nearly eight points, three boards, four assists, a steal, and is shooting 40 percent over his last five games. He’s also averaging more than 30 minutes over his last three, and while Baron might eventually show up for work, Shumpert simply has to get minutes.



Shooting Guards



Jared Dudley Suns



Dudley is starting again and should already be owned in your league after averaging 13 points, 3.6 boards, 2.6 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.4 3-pointers over his last five.



Gordon Hayward Jazz



Hayward is suddenly hot for the Jazz and had 21 points on Thursday night, has hit double digits in four straight, and is averaging 15 points, three boards, three assists, 1.4 steals, nearly a block, and one 3-pointer per game over his last five. Like Dudley, he’s probably not available in your league, but could be.



Arron Afflalo Nuggets



Afflalo’s struggles have been a pain in the neck this season for fantasy owners, many of which might have dropped him. He had 15 points on Thursday and could finally be ready to get it going for Denver. His five-game averages are not eye-popping though, and I’m not even going to mention them. The thing is, he’s either about to get it turned around or he’ll end up being a pretty big bust this season. He’s played 36 minutes in two straight, and we can only hope he starts taking shots.



Luke Ridnour Timberwolves



Ridnour is over his knee problem and has scored 16 and 11 points in his last two games as the starting SG for the Wolves. He’s averaging three boards, 4.5 dimes and shooting 50 percent in those two and it’s time to grab him if he was dropped during his injury rest.



Mike Dunleavy Bucks



Dunleavy has flourished as Stephen Jackson sits in the doghouse and Carlos Delfino struggles with inconsistency for the Bucks. He’s averaging 13 points and 1.4 3-pointers over his last five games, and had 20 points and two threes on Monday. Eventually, Dunleavy, Delfino and Jackson are all going to be stepping on each other’s toes, but the Bucks play better with Dunleavy on the floor instead of Jackson, making him worth a look.



Tony Allen Grizzlies



Allen is hot, averaging nearly 14 points, four boards, two steals and a block over his last five games, and has scored 17 & 18 points in his last two games. Give him a look if you need some fantasy gold (steals & blocks), but don't expect him to keep scoring at this pace. <!--RW-->



Small Forwards



Kyle Korver Bulls



Korver is starting for Luol Deng, who remains out indefinitely with a wrist injury, and is averaging 12 points and nearly three 3-pointers per game in his last five, four of which were starts. Deng could return this weekend, but his wrist is going to bother him all season. If you need threes, Korver’s your guy.



Josh Howard Jazz



Howard is finally healthy again and while there’s no telling how long he’ll stay that way, he had 19 points, four assists and a 3-pointer in 40 minutes in Thursday’s start at small forward. C.J. Miles disappeared and had just three points in that one, and can be dropped to pick up Howard. I’m not going to mess with Howard personally, as he’s just burned me one too many times. He’s starting because Raja Bell has been out with a groin injury, but could very easily keep the job once Bell is healthy again.



Rashard Lewis Wizards



Lewis had a season-high 20 points on Wednesday, along with eight boards, two steals and three 3-pointers, and could be available in your league. He’s averaging nine points and five boards over his last five, but has hit six treys in his last three games.



Shawne Williams Nets



Injuries to MarShon Brooks and Damion James have cleared the way for Williams to start at small forward for the Nets, while Anthony Morrow (starting shooting guard) is due back from a sprained ankle on Friday. Williams has yet to break out, but the signs are there. He’s scored 11 & 8 in his last two games, playing 38 & 32 minutes in them. And as long as Brooks is out with his fractured toe, Williams is probably worth a flier, but keep in mind that he could be forced back to the bench if Avery Johnson decides to start Jordan Farmar at shooting guard, sliding Morrow to small forward. And if that happens, Farmar will become a hot pickup.



Reggie Williams Bobcats



Gerald Henderson could miss a month with a hamstring injury and D.J. Augustin could miss several more games with his toe issue. Williams hasn’t done much yet, and has played 16 minutes or less in his two games this season (coming off knee surgery). But with Charlotte’s season in the tank and the injuries building, this is a guy you’ll want to keep a close eye on over the next few games.



Power Forwards



Thaddeus Young Sixers



Young is one of the more underrated fantasy players around, mainly because he comes off the bench in Philly. He’s averaging 25 minutes, 11 points, four boards, 1.4 steals, and is shooting 50 percent over his last five games. He had 19 points and eight rebounds on Wednesday against the Bulls and is worth a look if you need a warm body in your lineup.



Channing Frye Suns



Frye is back in the starting five for the Suns and had 16 points, seven boards, a steal, two blocks and a 3-pointer on Wednesday. He scored seven or less in his previous four games, so I’m not getting into those numbers, but the hope is he broke out of the funk on Wednesday and is ready to get hot.



Ed Davis Raptors



Davis has replaced Amir Johnson in the starting lineup for Dwane Casey, but it’s tough to tell how long it will last. He’s double-doubled in two straight with three blocks, and as long as he’s starting, he’s worth a look in most leagues.



Jason Thompson Kings



Thompson has kept J.J. Hickson at bay in Sacramento and while Chuck Hayes is back, Thompson has been playing pretty well. He’s averaging 11 points, eight rebounds and nearly a block per game over his last five, and while he could take a hit once Hayes is back in the flow, I’m fine with rolling with Thompson right now.



Brandon Bass Celtics



Bass has quietly scored in double figures in five straight games, averaging 12 points, six boards, and nearly a steal and block over that stretch. He’s also averaging 33 minutes, and while he’s not a must-own player, he’s worth a look in most leagues. He also shoots it decently from the line for a big man.



Centers



Nikola Pekovic Timberwolves



Pekovic could be on the verge of stealing Darko Milicic’s job as the starting center in Minnesota. Darko’s been in and out of the lineup lately with an illness and sore knee, and Pekovic has averaged 12 points and nine boards over that stretch, but has blocked just two shots. He’s at 0.5 blocks per game on his career, and should be able to get two blocks for every three games if starting.



Chuck Hayes Kings



Hayes is still dealing with some shoulder issues, but is playing through them. He played 29 minutes on Thursday, with three points, five boards, two steals and a block, and while scoring will always be an issue for Hayes, the rest of his numbers should climb. He also averaged nearly three assists per game last season, and can pass for a big man.



Tiago Splitter Spurs



Splitter had 16 points, seven boards and a block on Thursday and is averaging 11 points and six boards over his last 10 games. He’s only blocking a shot every other game, and will be somewhat unreliable since he plays for Gregg Popovich, but is worth a look if you need a big man.



Ian Mahinmi Mavericks



Mahinmi is averaging five points and nearly seven boards over his last five, but has blocked just one shot over that stretch. He is pushing Brendan Haywood for minutes, and possibly a starting job, and while he’s not a must-own player, he should be watched closely going forward.



Lavoy Allen Sixers



Allen has been forced into action for the Sixers due to injuries to both Spencer Hawes and Nikola Vucevic, but might only qualify as a forward in your league. In any case, the rookie is averaging seven points and five boards in 22 minutes over his last five games, and has received a lot of praise from coach Doug Collins. Hawes will miss his 10^th straight game on Friday, but Vucevic is due back for that one. But as long as Hawes is out, Allen is probably worth a deep-league flier if you’re desperate at center.

 

[HacheMan]

Bench Nowitzki? Start Jerebko?

Sometimes you have to bench a No. 1 pick facing a tough schedule.


By Bradford Doolittle
Basketball Prospectus

Using opponent data for each team on the following week's schedule, Basketball Prospectus can estimate how much a player's performance will vary because of the defenses he will face. (Click here for more details on the process.) Each week, Bradford Doolittle will take a look at five players to use, five to limit and an ideal pickup.


These are players currently owned by fewer than half of the owners in ESPN Fantasy Basketball 2012 that may be worth a roster spot in the week ahead.


Must plays



Tayshaun Prince (Owned 45.7 percent, Opponent boost 27.5 percent)

It's been a down year for Prince, the first of a head-scratching four-year deal he signed with rebuilding Detroit before the season. However, his minutes have been steady and this is the week to load up on Pistons, who have two games against the Nets and one against the Wizards. The Nets have rated as the league's worst defensive team by allowing 111.2 points per 100 possessions and the Wizards are 24th at 105.5. Both of those teams have been especially poor against small forwards, which bodes well for Prince. And if you feel like you just finished watching Prince put up 21 points, six boards and four assists against New Jersey, you're not wrong. He put up those numbers on Wednesday. In one of the odder scheduling quirks in this odd season, the Pistons and Nets play three times over a 10-day span.

<offer>Jonas Jerebko (Owned 11.4 percent, Opponent boost 27.5 percent)
Jerebko would be more of a dice roll. His minutes have been down since he was replaced in Detroit's starting lineup by Ben Wallace and Jason Maxiell. However, he came off the bench against New Jersey on Wednesday to put up 14 points in 31 minutes and has scored 39 points over his last three games. It's not much to go on, but with the Nets apparently a favorable matchup for Jerebko, it may be worth a gamble to see if he's won back the confidence of Pistons coach Lawrence Frank. Is so, he can get you 10-12 points, a good field-goal percentage, six boards and a few three-pointers. Does that make Jerebko rosterable? Depends on how desperate you are. If the answer is "very" now would be time to take a shot.


Byron Mullens (Owned 23.1 percent, Opponent boost 9.8 percent)
Mullens' minutes have been all over the map but he continues to score well on a per-minute basis. It's all about getting him on the court. This week, the struggling Bobcats play the Celtics, Bulls and Clippers. Believe or not, that might make the timing right to grab Mullens. The Celtics and Bulls have defensive designs that emphasize clogging the middle and are very good at doing so. However, centers who can shoot from the perimeter, like Mullens, can give teams like that trouble. Plus Clippers center DeAndre Jordan tends to get out of position because of his love of highlight-making blocked shots and is loathe to follow face-up bigs out to the perimeter. Mullens had 17 points, five boards and a 3-pointer in Charlotte's game at Chicago a couple of weeks ago.


James Johnson (Owned 43.9 percent, Opponent boost 9.7 percent)
If only Johnson could shoot he'd be a fantasy stalwart because he's a floor game wizard. Few players in the league can match his combination of steals and blocks. When he gets full-time minutes, you can mark him down for 6-7 rebounds and 3-4 assists. Unfortunately, Johnson is shooting barely 40 percent from the field and doesn't get many shots. He's fared better from 3-point range this season, which is an aspect of his game that he's been working on since he came into the NBA. If his 2-point stroke, not to mention his free throw shooting, are to bounce back, it might be this week, when Toronto takes on Washington, Milwaukee, Boston and the L.A. Lakers. Overall, it's not an easy set of opponents except as a group, they have struggled against small forwards and are average against power forwards. Johnson flips back and forth between the two spots, so he should benefit as long as he doesn't play too much four against Kevin Garnett on Friday.


Kawhi Leonard (Owned 8.9 percent, Opponent boost 8.0 percent)
Leonard owners have been jumping ship as the rookie seems to have played his way out of a full-time role. It seems now that Danny Green has emerged as Gregg Popovich's favorite toy off the bench. After starting 13 straight games, Leonard was replaced by Gary Neal on Thursday and was basically a non-entity in 12 minutes as a reserve. It's a shame, because Leonard looks like potential stud with defensive chops that you'd think would earn him plenty of court time. If you're feeling adventurous, maybe you want to assume this is just one of Pop's whimsies, because the Spurs play Memphis, Philadelphia and New Jersey. We've touched on the Nets, but the Grizzlies are also vulnerable against forwards because of all the minutes going to Marreese Speights. However, Leonard is more of a combo wing than a combo forward and is sometimes misidentified as a four. If you're wary of his minutes or these matchups, Matt Bonner might be a better play.


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Tough schedules



These guys are owned in most leagues, perhaps even by you, but they might be better left on the bench for a few days because of a rugged schedule.
</offer>Al Jefferson (Owned 100 percent, Opponent hit -9.5 percent)
It's easy to say that Jefferson has a tough week ahead of him so maybe you should look for another option. The reality is that unless you're in an extremely small league, you don't have any 19-point, nine-rebound guys stashed on your bench. Still, you should be aware that Jefferson's recent shooting problems aren't likely to improve in the coming days. Utah plays New York (Tyson Chandler), Indiana (Roy Hibbert) and Oklahoma City (Kendrick Perkins) -- all nasty opponents for interior scorers. The Jazz finish with week with Memphis (Marc Gasol), which may be even worse news. Only Portland has defended centers better than the Grizzlies.


Kemba Walker (Owned 100 percent, Opponent hit -9.3 percent)
Ricky Rubio is the only rookie to be getting more court time than Walker so far this season, but he's struggled with consistency. That's typical for rookies and you might want to steer clear of him and all Bobcats this week. Charlotte takes on Boston, Chicago and the L.A. Clippers, all of whom are murderous against point guards. Walker has been playing the point exclusively with D.J. Augustin out with a toe injury. Charlotte catches the Clippers at the end of the coming week and L.A. has struggled against twos. So if Augustin is back by then, Walker would switch back to the two and would be a safer play.


Trevor Ariza (Owned 63.1 percent, Opponent hit -10.0 percent)
Ariza's ownership percentage is shrinking by the day, which will happen when you make less than 40 percent of your shots in eight out of nine games. If you've been faithful to Ariza through his slump, now might be the time to abandon your admirable loyalty. Sacramento, Chicago and Portland are the New Orleans opponents this week. Okay, the Kings haven't been very good against small forwards, so maybe you leave Ariza in on Monday. But the Bulls (Luol Deng) and Blazers (Gerald Wallace) have been two of the league's best against wing players. And, yes, Deng is expected to be back in action by the time the Hornets play Chicago on Wednesday.


Kyrie Irving (Owned 100 percent, Opponent hit -10.1 percent)
Tough week for the leading Rookie of the Year candidate. Miami's Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole have been a little below average on defense, but of course the Heat defense is outstanding overall and Irving might see a fair amount of Dwyane Wade or even LeBron James in key situations. Cleveland's other three opponents have been well better than average against ones. The Sixers are second to Indiana in defending point guards while the Bucks and Clippers are both in the upper third. If Irving gets through this slate with his field-goal percentage still better than 50 percent and his 3-point percent still over 40, look out.


Dirk Nowitzki (Owned 100 percent, Opponent hit -16.3 percent)
You can't take Dirk out of the lineup, right? He's your No. 1 draft pick. Nowitzki of course just returned from a little four-game fitness retreat, but he's been even worse since coming back. He's hit just 11 of 39 shots in three games since returning and was 2 of 15 against Oklahoma City on Wednesday. It doesn't get any easier for Nowitzki in the days ahead. Dallas plays Denver, Minnesota and Portland this week, all of whom have been excellent against both fours and fives. Opponent strength used to a non-factor for Nowitzki, whom you would never consider pulling from a fantasy lineup. Right now, though, he's got to have you thinking.
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This week's ideal "get"

This is the player not mentioned above who stands to get the biggest boost from this week's slate. If you've had you're eye on via the trade market, now is the time to pull the trigger. If you own him, you may want to hold off on that deal for another week.


Greg Monroe (Owned 100 percent, Opponent boost 15.4 percent)
Monroe is listed as a forward for his primary position and that's how he's coded here, though in reality he's played center exclusively for the Pistons this season. That takes a little bit of the edge off his 15.4 percent opponent boost projected for this week, but even if you call him a center, you'd still be able to bump his production up by about six percent. He's still a solid play. Monroe has really been a bright spot on a putrid Pistons team, putting up solid across-the-board numbers with excellent efficiency. He just keeps getting better, too, hitting 22 of 34 over his last three games. The only downside is that he commits too many turnovers for his position. With the Pistons desperate for playmaking, that's probably not going to change.

 

[HacheMan]

Jared Dudley has job, groove back

By Josh Whitling
Special to ESPN.com

Two weeks ago, I highlighted players to target in rebounds, assists, 3-pointers, blocks and steals. Those categories are relatively simple to address via the waiver wire, because a player's positive impact is easily measurable, and there are specialists who help specifically in those categories but are largely unowned due to their lack of overall contribution.
This week it gets a bit hairier, as I'll look at options to improve your team's performance in two difficult-to-address categories: points and field goal percentage. Finding free-agent help in these categories is quite challenging. Waiver-wire points are rare because the majority of players scoring with regularity are already rostered. Same with percentages -- most players with a significantly beneficial combination of frequency and accuracy are long gone.
Disclaimer: You will not overhaul your team's performance in these categories through the waiver wire. If you want to do that, seek a trade, then surround your stars with positive contributors like those featured in this column.
Points
As mentioned, cheap points are a scarce commodity -- there isn't a single healthy player averaging at least 13 points per game that's owned in fewer than half of ESPN leagues. Mid-level players aren't scoring specialists in the same way they can be 3-point or blocks specialists, so a primary strategy is pouncing on players who are capitalizing upon injury. Additionally, if you're in a league where Manu Ginobili (58.6 percent owned), Eric Gordon (59.8 percent), Gerald Henderson (65.8 percent), Zach Randolph (38.7 percent) or any other injured scorers were dropped, allowing them to take the roster spot of a player you never start is worthwhile. The type of production these players will provide upon returning is unmatchable through the waiver wire.
Let's take a look at some waiver options that can strengthen your team's scoring:


Jared Dudley, SG/SF, Phoenix Suns (37.0 percent owned): This hot preseason sleeper is being rapidly re-added after his slow start, as Dudley has regained his starting job in Phoenix, and has scored at least 15 points in his past three games. He averaged 16.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.1 steals and 1.7 3s in 15 starts last season, so we know he's capable of scoring, as well as helping in other fantasy categories. Now that he's got his starting spot back and is on a roll, add him immediately if he's still available.

Jordan Farmar, PG, New Jersey Nets (18.7 percent owned): Ignore the fact he's a backup and pay attention to the fact he's played at least 20 minutes in 11 straight contests, and scored in double figures in 12 of his past 17. With MarShon Brooks out indefinitely with a broken toe, Farmar will see more minutes and more shot opportunities. He's averaging 23.2 points per 48 minutes, a higher number than players like Chauncey Billups and Tyreke Evans, so he's effective when on the court. He's averaging 26.5 minutes per game in his past six contests, compared to 20.6 for the season, so look for his scoring average to increase as his minutes and opportunities do the same.
Jerryd Bayless, PG/SG, Toronto Raptors (13.5 percent owned): Bayless entered the season with high expectations heaped upon him, as many picked him to wrest the starting point guard spot from Jose Calderon after averaging 18.1 points, 6.7 assists, 1.2 3s and 1.0 steals per game in 14 starts last season. He was hindered early by an ankle injury and Calderon's strong play, but has come on strong as of late, notching at least 14 points in each of his past four contests. The Raptors need offensive help with Andrea Bargnani sidelined, and Bayless is one of their best scorers, so he should continue seeing increased minutes and putting up double digits on the regular.
Gordon Hayward, SG/SF, Utah Jazz (5.3 percent owned): He won't make your fantasy team look tougher, but Hayward has tons of fantasy potential with averages of 0.7 3s, 0.8 steals and 0.8 blocks per game in 27.8 minutes. Those peripherals are enticing, but his scoring is becoming more consistent, as he's hit at least 12 points in each of his past four contests after failing to do so in five straight. His minutes are on the uptick, and he's much more aggressive recently, with at least 11 attempts from the floor in each of those four games. He'd taken 11 or more shots only twice all season before this point. If you need points, he'll have his ups and downs but has scoring ability, and the secondary benefits of 3s, steals and blocks are the cherry on top.
Mike Dunleavy, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks (3.6 percent owned): He missed a couple weeks with a groin injury, but is back and regularly scoring in double figures. Of all players averaging at least 10.5 points per game, he's the only one owned in fewer than five percent of leagues. Snatch him up if you need cheap points.
C.J. Watson, PG, Chicago Bulls (0.9 percent owned): He's a dynamic scorer when seeing floor time, and with Rip Hamilton injured he's seeing increased run. He's one of three players averaging at least 10 points per game in fewer than 20 minutes (along with C.J. Miles and the recently-returned J.J. Barea, who are both options in this category as well), so for Watson it's all about opportunity. Right now he's got it, and has scored at least 11 points in six of his past nine contests, so if you're desperate for points ride him at least for the short term.


Field goal percentage
Again, the only way to make a drastic impact here is by trading away the anchors that are weighing down your percentages, and being shrewd when adding players by avoiding those with inefficient percentages. It's beneficial to target guards who help in field goal percentage, because this is typically where your damaging players are found. By inserting efficient guards in your lineup, you're getting positive contributions from a spot that often hurts your team percentage.
Here are some widely-available options to target if your field goal percentage needs bolstering:
Brandon Rush, SG/SF, Golden State Warriors (10.3 percent owned): Rush is one of four guard-eligible players averaging 6.5 shots per game and shooting better than 50 percent from the floor. He's a bit erratic and won't get you double figures on a nightly basis, but is scoring with efficiency and can help your team if you plug him in at the shooting guard slot, a position where most players are below-average contributors in field goal percentage. He scored a season-high 20 points on Tuesday and has shot at least 50 percent from the floor in eight of his past 11 contests.

Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves (3.4 percent owned): He's outplayed Darko Milicic and his playing time has shot up recently, as Pekovic notched 30 minutes off the bench Wednesday with 13 points and 12 boards. That marked his fourth game out of the past five with at least 13 points, and the big man from Montenegro can get it done from the floor. He shot 72.5 percent from the floor on 14.6 attempts per game in Greece in 2009-10, and has never shot lower than 51.7 percent from the floor on any professional level. He could be starting before long, and proved able in a recent stretch starting in place of an injured Milicic, averaging 11.7 points on 59.3 percent shooting with 8.7 rebounds in three contests. He's an efficient, legitimate option in all formats if you need help at center and want a boost in your team's field goal percentage.
Trevor Booker, PF, Washington Wizards (2.3 percent owned): With Andray Blatche out 3-5 weeks, Booker is a critical part of the Wizards' rotation, and he's proven to be efficient in his short NBA career, with a career 55.7 field goal percentage. He's shot at least 50 percent from the floor in each of his past nine games, and is averaging 12 points per game in his past three contests. The Wizards need his hustle and energy, and he has nowhere to go but up as he grows more comfortable playing significant minutes at the NBA level.


Shaun Livingston, PG, Milwaukee Bucks (0.1 percent owned): He's shooting 51.6 percent from the floor on 6.0 attempts per game, and playing more recently, starting over the mercurial Stephen Jackson. He doesn't shoot with enough regularity to have a huge impact on your overall percentage, but if you're in a tight race, guards who regularly hit more than half their shot attempts are uncommon. Being 6-foot-7 and attempting just one 3-pointer all season helps his case, and his regular 3-for-6 and 4-for-7 nights from the floor can help offset harmful players who regularly go 8-for-20.
Willie Green, SG, Atlanta Hawks (0.1 percent owned): Green sees limited minutes, but is shooting 50 percent on 6.1 attempts per game during the past 30 days. He's taking good long-range shots, shooting 44.2 percent from behind the arc this season, and is averaging 1.0 3s per game during the past month. Getting a 3-pointer per game from a guard who doesn't hurt your shooting percentage is helpful if you're mired in a tight field goal percentage battle, so even though his contribution is minimal, managing your field goal percentage is often about damage control. In that case, Green is a legitimate option in leagues with 14 or more teams.

 

[HacheMan]

Dose: Week 7 Preview

Week 7 is upon us and the season is more than 1/3 over with already. While the injury list is still large, things have started to calm down a bit. Hot pickups for the upcoming week include Jason Thompson, Jeremy Lin, Bismack Biyombo and Get the Baseball Draft Guide here!



Atlanta 4 games



Not much is new in Atlanta, other than Jeff Teague, Joe Johnson and Josh Smith are still reliable as must-start players. Jason Collins is hurt, but in fantasy, that means nothing – even in my 30-team league.



Boston 4 games



Rajon Rondo is finally back from his wrist injury, while Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen are coming in hot. If you were holding Avery Bradley, it’s time to move on. Brandon Bass has a gimpy knee and missed Sunday, but plans on playing Tuesday, while Jermaine O’Neal has a bone bruise in his knee. I know you are shocked and devastated by learning JO has a leg injury, but the weird thing is that he plans on playing through it. We’ll see. Pierce tweaked his hip on Friday, but looked good on Super Bowl Sunday.



Charlotte 3 games



Say hello to new starters Bismack Biyombo and Reggie Williams. While nothing’s set in stone here, it makes sense for them to start for a team that has lost 11 straight games, and won just three on the year. Especially for the rookie Biyombo. He had 11 points, 12 boards, a steal and two blocks on Saturday, and while I don’t think he’ll do that very often, he’s worth owning in most leagues as long as he’s starting. And if you’re hurting for blocks, he could be the fix you’re looking for. Williams started at shooting guard and had 21 points, seven boards and six assists on Saturday, just his third game of the season after coming off knee surgery. With Gerald Henderson and Corey Maggette down and out, Williams is a fine pickup right now. The only problem is the Bobcats have just three games this week, when most teams play four. Byron Mullens has fallen out of the loop and should be dropped in most leagues, while there is still no timetable on the return of D.J. Augustin, who is out with a toe injury. Kemba Walker looks like a must-start player here, while Williams, Biyombo, Tyrus Thomas and Boris Diaw are all worth considering. But with just three games, you can do better in Week 7.



Chicago 4 games



Luol Deng is back from his wrist injury, so those of you holding Kyle Korver should probably make a trip to the waiver wire. Derrick Rose recently tweaked his back but sounds like he’s good to go, while Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer continue to battle inconsistency. With four games this week, all of the Bulls starters should be good to go except for Ronnie Brewer, who will likely share time with Korver, and possibly C.J. Watson, until Richard Hamilton is back from a groin injury. I’m not a real doctor, but I’m not expecting to see Rip back anytime soon.



Cleveland 4 games



Anthony Parker (back) and Daniel Gibson (neck) remain out for the Cavs, meaning Alonzo Gee is suddenly relevant. He has 10 steals in his last four games and has scored in double figures in all of them, including a season-high 20 points on Friday. He’s not starting, but is getting heavy minutes off the bench for the Cavs. Anderson Varejao is absolutely on fire (averaging 14 & 14 over his last five) and is a great sell-high candidate given his lack of shot blocking, while Kyrie Irving and Antawn Jamison are also solid fantasy options. Tristan Thompson is also out with a sore ankle, but doesn’t have much value when healthy.



Dallas 3 games



The Mavs play just three times this week, but at least Dirk Nowitzki is finally back. He’s scored 24 & 30 points in his last two games, and finally looks like the guy you drafted. Now just hope he can keep it going. Roddy Beaubois has really cooled off and came off the bench on Saturday. He’ll bounce back at some point, but I’d hit the waiver wire if I owned him. Delonte West started for Jason Kidd on Saturday (11 points, 7 assists), but I wouldn’t use him in a weekly league with just three games. Vince Carter has cooled off, Shawn Marion has quieted with the emergence of Dirk, and Lamar Odom just looks like a lost puppy dog in Dallas. With three games this week, Dirk is the only one I’d consider starting in weekly leagues.



Denver 4 games



Andre Miller and Nene both disappeared on Saturday, but it was probably a fluke. Miller, Nene, Ty Lawson, Al Harrington and Danilo Gallinari all look like solid plays this week, while Kosta Koufos is worth a look after blowing up for 16 points and 12 boards Saturday in a start for Timofey Mozgov, who was out with an ankle injury. It could be a severe one, but don’t expect Koufos to be reliable in Mozgov’s absence. Arron Afflalo failed to even score on Saturday and has scored eight or less points in four of his last five games. He could break out this week, but chances are you can find a better option on your bench, or on the waiver wire.



Detroit 3 games



With just three games, Greg Monroe is the only Piston I trust this week. Brandon Knight is expected back from a broken nose on Wednesday, but there’s still no target date for Ben Gordon to return from his shoulder injury. Keep an eye on Jason Maxiell, who could continue to start at power forward for the Pistons, while Rodney Stuckey and Tayshaun Prince are also possible deep-league starters this week. And if you’re holding Austin Daye, it’s probably time to move on.



Golden State 3 games



Monta Ellis (wrist), Stephen Curry (groin), Ekpe Udoh (wrist) and Nate Robinson (groin) are all banged up, but my sense is that Curry and Monta will play through their injuries. Klay Thompson had a great game on Saturday, but Mark Jackson benched his starters in the second half. In other words, I don’t trust him, especially with three games this week. Ellis, Curry, David Lee and a suddenly hot Dorell Wright are the only guys worth starting this week, but check Rotoworld throughout the day on Monday for updates on the guards’ nagging injuries.



Houston 4 games



Samuel Dalembert has fallen off the face of the earth and should be benched if you have options at center. He’s scored seven or less in five straight, and his minutes have taken a hit thanks to Kevin McHale. Kevin Martin, Kyle Lowry and Luis Scola remain must-starts, while Chandler Parsons, Dalembert and Patrick Patterson, who had 14 points and five boards on Saturday, are worth a look in deeper leagues. Martin hit just 1-of-10 shots for two points on Saturday, but should bounce back this week. Get him in your lineup. <!--RW-->



Indiana 4 games



Danny Granger, Darren Collison, Roy Hibbert, David West and Paul George all look like solid plays this week, and I wouldn’t hesitate to use any of them. George had 30 points and seven treys on Friday, and might have helped owners win for the week. Tyler Hansbrough had 17 points and seven boards off the bench on Saturday, but I don’t have the guts to roll with him as long as he’s not starting for Indy. George Hill’s going to miss a few more weeks and can be dropped due to his ankle injury.





Clippers 4 games



Lob City is the most fun team to watch in the league and Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Chris Paul, Caron Butler, Chauncey Billups and Mo Williams should all be in most starting lineups this week. Jordan is dealing with a sore knee, but hasn’t had any problems playing through it. The Clips signed Kenyon Martin and he could play sometime this week, but I’m not expecting much as long as Griffin can walk.



Lakers 4 games



Ron Artest is starting at small forward, but hasn’t done much of anything. His season highlight thus far was seeing “World Peace” on the big screen at the end of Madonna’s “performance” at halftime of the Super Bowl. Start Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol this week, and ignore the rest of their teammates. Having said that, Andrew Goudelock is playing well and could be worth a look if you’re in a league with 18 teams or more.



Memphis 4 games



Mike Conley disappeared on Sunday, but remains a solid fantasy starter, along with Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol. O.J. Mayo is also playing well enough to be used, while Tony Allen was a surprise scratch on Sunday due to a sore hip and knee. He looks too risky to me this week, so weigh options carefully before using him. Marreese Speights has looked pretty bad, and probably belongs on waivers in your leagues, while we still don’t have a target date for Zach Randolph, who has been out with a knee injury. Maybe he’ll be ready a month from now.



Miami 4 games



LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are must-starts, while Mario Chalmers is worth a look in most leagues. Chalmers may be dealing with a sore knee, but played through it on Friday and Sunday.



Milwaukee 4 games



The nightmare known as Stephen Jackson continued on Saturday, as he got another DNP-CD from coach Scott Skiles. Brandon Jennings and Drew Gooden are the only sure bets in Milwaukee, while Mike Dunleavy and Ersan Ilyasova are worth a look in most leagues. The same can be said for Carlos Delfino, but he just hasn’t been able to get it going, and it’s only going to get worse if Jackson ever gets out of the doghouse. Tobias Harris scored 19 on Saturday, but I don’t trust him. As for Jackson, just keep him on your bench until you see him log more than 20 minutes in a game for the Bucks, or another team if they grant his wish and trade him.



Minnesota 4 games



Kevin Love is still rolling, and remains a must-start player, along with Ricky Rubio. Darko Milicic’s been dealing with an illness and sore quad, meaning Nikola Pekovic is worth grabbing in all leagues. He could start all four games this week at center, but it might depend on Darko’s health. Luke Ridnour is hot again and is worth a shot in many leagues, while Michael Beasley has seen his scoring drop in three straight games, going for 11, 10 and 6 points. He’ll get it turned around, but you might be able to find a safer option.



New Jersey 4 games



Deron Williams, Anthony Morrow and Kris Humphries are must-starts for the Nets, while Shawne Williams is worth keeping a close eye on. He’s starting for injured MarShon Brooks, who remains out with a toe injury. I doubt Brooks plays this week. Jordan Farmar might be worth a look in deeper leagues, but will struggle for consistency with Deron and Morrow healthy.



New Orleans 3 games



Greivis Vasquez is still hot and should remain so as long as Eric Gordon is out with his knee injury. Jarrett Jack has missed two straight with a knee injury of his own, which has also helped Vasquez. We don’t know when Jack will be back, but his injury doesn’t sound serious. Carl Landry is going to miss a few weeks with a knee injury, while Jason Smith took a couple shots to the head on Saturday, making him iffy as well. Chris Kaman is expected to return to the lineup this week after the Hornets pulled him off the trading block, but is very risky, and could be out of shape. Trevor Ariza and Vasquez look like the best options in New Orleans, along with Emeka Okafor, but with three games, none are must-starts in weekly leagues.



New York 4 games



Jeremy Lin blew up on Saturday for 25 points and seven assists, and Mike D’Antoni is at least considering starting him at point guard for this week. I think picking him up is a good call right now, and he could be a sneaky start with four games, especially if you’ve been holding guys like Devin Harris, Chris Duhon or Jameer Nelson. Carmelo Anthony is playing through his injuries, while Amare Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler are also must-starts. Landry Fields and Iman Shumpert might be worth a look in your league, but weigh your options carefully before using any of them. <!--RW-->



Oklahoma City 4 games



Not much to say here, other than keep rolling with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and James Harden. Thabo Sefolosha remains out indefinitely with a foot injury, which should mean continued success for Harden.



Orlando 4 games



The Magic are pretty awful right now, but in terms of fantasy, Dwight Howard, Ryan Anderson, Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu are all guys who should remain in lineups. Jameer Nelson could be back tonight from a concussion, but I wouldn’t touch him or Chris Duhon right now. J.J. Redick was playing well before J-Rich bounced back over the last couple games, so I wouldn’t mess with Redick either. Glen Davis was suspended for a couple games, as he blew up in a practice because he’s frustrated with his role behind Anderson. He’s due back tonight, but isn’t a fantasy option with Anderson’s breakout season under construction.



Philadelphia 4 games



Jrue Holiday’s quiet season continues and I’m going to bench him in my main league this week for Marcus Thornton. I’m going to lose assists anyway, and Thornton has potential to explode on any given night, while Holiday quietly runs an efficient offense in Philly. Andre Iguodala is a must-start player, while Holiday, Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes are all worth a look with four games. Elton Brand missed Saturday’s game with a thumb injury, and while I doubt it’s serious, we’re just not sure if he’ll play on Monday. Nikola Vucevic and Lavoy Allen are also worth keeping an eye on, but don’t look like great options as long as Hawes is (finally) healthy.



Phoenix 4 games



Jared Dudley (thigh) missed Saturday’s game and Michael Redd started in his place, scoring 17 points and canning four 3-pointers. I am not touching Redd, and hopefully Dudley will be back tonight at Atlanta. Channing Frye continues to struggle despite starting, while Steve Nash and Marcin Gortat are your must-start players in Phoenix. Grant Hill is back from a sore knee, but probably isn’t the best option you can find. Markieff Morris played well on Saturday, but we’ve seen this act before. He’s just too inconsistent to be plugged into fantasy lineups at this point.



Portland 4 games



Greg Oden had some more knee surgery over the weekend and his season, which never even started, is officially over. Raymond Felton suffered a left foot sprain on Saturday and is iffy for Monday. If you have other options, bench Felton for now. Nicolas Batum blew up for career highs of 33 points and a team-record nine 3-pointers on Saturday after missing a couple games with a knee injury, and should be put back into starting lineups, along with LaMarcus Aldridge. Marcus Camby had 20 more boards on Saturday and looks like a strong play, while Wesley Matthews continues to struggle with the arrival of Jamal Crawford. And if Felton is out, Crawford becomes a must-start fantasy player, as he’ll likely run the point.



Sacramento 4 games



Chuck Hayes tweaked his shoulder again on Saturday and could miss time, although his status is currently unknown. Jason Thompson blew up for 15 points and 16 boards against the Warriors and looks like a very strong play with Hayes hurting again. Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton and DeMarcus Cousins are your must-starts, while John Salmons is worth a look in deeper leagues. And if you’re holding Jimmer Fredette, he looks to be useless again with Thornton back in action.



San Antonio 3 games



The Spurs only go three times, but Tony Parker is a must-start player after blowing up for 42 points on Saturday. There’s a good chance Manu Ginobili is back this week, which will hurt Parker, but he still deserves to be in most lineups. Tim Duncan is the other option with three games, but I’d stay away from guys like Kawhi Leonard, Richard Jefferson, Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair and Gary Neal this week.



Toronto 4 games



Andrea Bargnani remains out with his calf injury while Dwane Casey continues to play Russian roulette with his lineup. Is it Amir Johnson or Ed Davis? Jose Calderon or Jerryd Bayless? DeMar DeRozan or Bayless? James Johnson has also quieted down for the Raps, and I’m not sure there’s a must-start player on the roster. DeRozan had a big game on Sunday, but has been hit or miss lately, while Leandro Barbosa had 19 points on Friday. I think starting Calderon and DeRozan isn’t a bad idea, but this whole team has become a bit of a fantasy nightmare.



Utah 4 games



Al Jefferson is playing through his foot/ankle injury and should be in all lineups this week. Devin Harris is banged up, and continues to struggle, meaning Earl Watson (11 assists on Saturday) is worth a look from owners desperate at point guard. C.J. Miles has crashed to earth with Raja Bell and Josh Howard finally healthy, but Gordon Hayward has played well enough lately to be started in almost any league. Roll with Jefferson, Paul Millsap and Hayward this week, and give Harris, Watson and Howard a look. If you’re holding Derrick Favors, he can be dropped unless you think Jefferson is going down again soon.



Washington 4 games



JaVale McGee has cooled off, scoring just 4, 8 and 6 points in his last three games. I’m still going to roll with him over Samuel Dalembert this week, and am hoping for a bounce back. John Wall was 1-of-12 for two points on Wednesday, but has been playing better for the most part, while Nick Young has emerged as a must-start player. Rashard Lewis and Jordan Crawford are both worth a look, but far from must-start players, while Trevor Booker is also worth a look filling in for Andray Blatche. I dropped Blatche where I own him, as he’ll miss a few more weeks with his calf injury.

 

[HacheMan]

Considering Jordan Crawford

As you're likely aware, the sport commonly known as "NFL football" concluded its season last evening, which means we can all focus our energy on wasting entirely too much time on fantasy basketball (which most of us were already doing in the first place). Here's the latest from the Roundball Stew universe as we enter Week 7:

I'm all for adding Reggie Williams and Bismack Biyombo (in that order), but beware of the "Double Bobcat." When I say Double Bobcat, I'm referring, of course, to the practice of having two or more players from the same crappy team on your roster, a situation that becomes wildly frustrating when said team is averaging just 79.1 points in its last seven games (and just 87.3 points on the season). Other similarly nightmarish situations to avoid if at all possible: the Double Wizard, Double Hornet, Double Piston and the dreaded Double Raptor.

And for the record, I place Williams ahead of Biyombo because I like the combo of points, 3s and assists that Williams offers (separating him from the average two-dimensional outside shooter). Furthermore, I'm wary of Biyombo – still just 19 years old – struggling with foul trouble and inconsistency as he learns to play center in the NBA. With that said, based on what I’ve seen, Biyombo’s long-term potential as a shot-blocker is monstrous.

Follow me on Twitter: @MattStroup

Meanwhile, I've had it with James Johnson. It's not entirely his fault, but Johnson has become Canada's answer to Tyrus Thomas, tantalizing with potent defensive stats (1.3 spg, 1.5 bpg on the season) but remaining far too foul-prone, inconsistent and subject to the whims of a maddening coach (Dwane Casey) to be trustworthy in standard leagues. He even has first-name/last-name alliteration like Tyrus. The bottom line: With just five games in double figures all season, Johnson simply isn’t reliable, and it has become clear that the occasional explosive line isn’t enough to balance out the frustration.

I've also had it with Iman Shumpert... almost. I know I preached patience last week, but 6.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.6 apg and 1.0 spg on 33.3 percent shooting in his last eight games just isn't acceptable. I still like Shumpert as a player long-term and haven't yet dropped him in my main league, but he has hit double-figure scoring in just three of his last 10 games, and anyone who has waited this long is justified in moving on.

Speaking of the Knicks PG situation, I'm not yet ready to buy in on Jeremy Lin. I was impressed with Lin’s quickness off the dribble while watching the Knicks this weekend, but I just can't envision him still being an asset in fantasy leagues a few weeks from now. To be clear, I have no argument with adding him if you have an open roster spot, and I’d be thrilled to see him prove me wrong, but for the moment I would only consider him a short-term solution.

Currently on the watch list: Jordan Crawford. He's still coming off the bench and remains an intensely erratic shooter (37.8 percent on the season), but Crawford is showing signs of renewed promise under the Randy Wittman regime. In his last five games, the gunner sans conscience has averaged 12.8 ppg, 4.2 apg, 1.0 spg and 1.8 3s in 27 minutes per night. Granted, that streak comes with brutal 33.3 percent shooting, but sub-40 percent is just part of Crawford’s deal. I still wouldn’t sprint to add him in standard leagues, but he has some deep league value right now. And even if he doesn’t fully blow up in the weeks to come, he could be getting a ton of run during the closing weeks of the season when the Wizards are even more out of it than they already are.

And now a note on wasted roster space. It has occurred to me that this edition of the Stew has been a little bit grumpier than normal with regard to player outlooks, which I’m sure has something to do with extreme fatigue after working at the Super Bowl last week. Figuring that I might as well go all-out in terms of negativity while I’m at it, here’s a quick list of players with name recognition and respectable scoring ability who may be hurting your team more than you realize:

Rodney Stuckey: The story on Stuckey remains the same – he still doesn’t get enough steals (0.6) or threes (0.7) to make his scoring (12.9) or assists (4.0) all that useful. Add in a low field goal percentage (39.2 percent), and you’re looking at the No. 135-ranked player on Basketball Monster’s 8-category leaderboard. He is capable of big games, and I’d be shopping him aggressively after his next one.

Luis Scola: Five spots below Stuckey in the rankings at No. 140, Scola has seen his numbers drop almost entirely across the board this year, and his 15.0 ppg looks ridiculously hollow when you pair it with bad rebounding (5.8) and extremely weak numbers in steals (0.3) and blocks (0.3). He is coming off his best game of the year (24 points, eight rebounds, a steal and two blocks), so now is a good time to see if you can get a lower-scoring but more useful player in return.

Jason Richardson: He has averaged 18.0 ppg in his last two games, but that doesn’t change the fact that Richardson is plummeting off a statistical cliff at age 31. His 10.0 FG attempts are a career-low, and he’s attempting just 3.8 3s per game (his lowest since 2003-04). Also down: free throw attempts (a career-low 1.6 per game), rebounds (career-low 3.3) and, of course, scoring: his average of 10.8 ppg is – you guessed it – a career-low. There is some room for improvement, but Richardson’s ceiling right now looks like something in the vicinity of 13.0 ppg and 1.5 3s per game. If I had him on any fantasy rosters, I’d be hoping he can string together a couple more good games in a row, then firing out my best sales pitch about how he has finally found his legs after the abbreviated preseason.

Gerald Henderson: I was optimistic about a Henderson breakout heading into this season, but like Scola he has posted a very hollow 15.0 ppg (4.4 rpg, 1.8 apg, 0.9 spg, 0.4 bpg, 0.3 3s). Given those numbers – and his current hamstring injury – there’s no reason to wait it out unless you’re playing in a canyon-deep format.

 

[HacheMan]

A Painful Monday

Monday was a rough day for yours truly, and I’m pretty sure I wasn’t alone given the list of surprise DNPs that broke before the games started, and then the list of All-Stars who went down during the games. It reminded me of a Modest Mouse album title; 'Good News For People Who Love Bad News.'



I listed this fantasy all-star team on Twitter Monday afternoon, which consisted of surprise DNPs for Monday night: PG Raymond Felton, SG Jarrett Jack, SF Anthony Morrow, PF Kevin Love/Elton Brand, and C Nene/Amare Stoudemire.



And the news only got worse on Monday night, as the following all-star team went down in-game. PG Derrick Rose, SG Chauncey Billups, F Carmelo Anthony, F Danilo Gallinari, C Samuel Dalembert (not technically hurt, but might as well be on a seven-minute night).



So without further ado, here’s a recap of Monday’s injury-fest, along with a few bits of good news for guys like Jeremy Lin, Jerryd Bayless, Linas Kleiza and LaMarcus Aldridge.



Linsanity



But first, I’ve got to lead with Jeremy Lin, who is the new starting point guard for the Knicks. He went off for a career-high 28 points and eight assists, and led the Knicks to a win over the Jazz with a team-high 45 minutes played. He should be owned in all leagues at this point, especially since Baron Davis suffered a setback. It’s possible Davis doesn’t play a game this season, so dump him for Lin (or anyone else) if you can. ‘Linsanity’ also had 25 points and seven dimes on Saturday, which was the night to move on him in most leagues.



Billups Could Be Done



Chauncey Billups went down with a left Achilles injury and all signs are that it’s a serious one. We’re still waiting for an official report from the team, but it’s pretty rare that rumors about an injury turn out to be false, and everything we’ve heard is that it’s a severe injury, which could mean he ruptured it. And if that’s the case, he’s done for the season and could even have trouble resuming his career. Hopefully it’s just a strain, but Randy Foye will likely take over his starting job, and Mo Williams will likely see the biggest boost in value if Billups is done.



Rose Day-to-Day



Derrick Rose left last night’s game with back spasms and is day-to-day after playing just 11 minutes. C.J. Watson had 14 points and 11 assists, but will only be worth owning if Rose is going to miss time. And as of now, he’s a game-time decision for Wednesday at New Orleans.



Melo’s Groin Injury A Concern



Carmelo Anthony left after just six minutes with a strained right groin, which is pretty scary. Groin injuries, if serious at all, usually result in at least a couple missed games, while he could be out for a couple weeks or more. We really don’t know any more at this point, and will have to wait to find out the severity of the injury. Bill Walker had 11 points and five rebounds in his stead, while Steve Novak got hot for 19 points and five 3-pointers in just 17 minutes. Walker would be the pickup if Melo is going to miss a lot of time, but is probably not capable of putting up Melo-like numbers.



Gallinari Gone



Danilo Gallinari suffered a “chip fracture” in his left foot/ankle and the replays on television were brutal to watch. I don’t mean to raise the alarm flag irresponsibly, but as Reggie Miller once said, this one looks like a “monther,” as in he could miss a month with the injury. We should know more on Tuesday. Rudy Fernandez had 14 points and could replace Gallo in the starting lineup, while Al Harrington is a must-own player in all leagues. He’s been playing well for most of the season and had 12 points and 15 boards last night.



Amare Loses His Brother



Amare Stoudemire’s brother, Hazell, tragically passed away in a car accident on Monday morning and Amare has taken a leave from the Knicks, missing last night’s game. And given funeral arrangements and the gravity of the situation, he could miss more games, including Wednesday at Washington. Jared Jeffries started in his place and had 13 points and eight boards, but isn’t exactly trustworthy.



No Love



Kevin Love has been suspended for two games for stepping on Luis Scola’s face and will be out on Tuesday and Wednesday. Derrick Williams and Michael Beasley will benefit.



No Nene



Nene was out on Monday with his lingering heel injury, which is becoming quite concerning. He’s day-to-day, while Kenneth Faried had six points and eight boards in the start. Chris Andersen had 10 points and nine boards, and Al Harrington added 12 points and 15 boards. Nene’s heel has been an issue for most of the season and owners have to hope a shutdown of some sort isn’t on the horizon.

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The Rest of the Injury Report



Arron Afflalo was out for the Nuggets with ankle and toe injuries, as Julyan Stone started, hitting 1-of-5 shots for two points. Rudy Fernandez scored 14 and is the pickup if Afflalo is going to miss time. Timofey Mozgov was out again with his ankle injury and Kosta Koufos is starting in his place. Koufos was big in his previous game, but had just seven points, three rebounds and a block on Monday.



Anthony Morrow was out due to his grandmother’s funeral, but could be back on Wednesday. Keith Bogans started in his place, but had just seven points, while Jordan Farmar had 11 points and five dimes.



Raymond Felton was out with a foot injury and Jamal Crawford had 17 points and five dimes in the start at PG for Portland. Felton is day-to-day.



Tony Allen missed Monday with a hip/knee injury and Quincy Pondexter started in his place for the Grizzlies, but failed to score. O.J. Mayo played 28 minutes but hit just 3-of-15 shots for nine points, and is the guy to grab if Allen will miss more time.



Rashard Lewis was out for Washington with a sore knee and Chris Singleton started in his place, scoring just four points.



Jarrett Jack was out again for New Orleans with his sore knee and remains day-to-day. Greivis Vasquez had another nice game with 20 points and nine assists, while Marco Belinelli finally played well, going for 18 points, four assists and two 3-pointers. Vasquez should be owned in all leagues, while I don’t really trust Belinelli after his rough start to the season. But another nice game could change my mind.



Carl Landry (knee) and Jason Smith (concussion) were out, allowing Gustavo Ayon to start at power forward. He had just four points, nine boards and two blocks, but is worth a look if he continues to start. Meanwhile, Chris Kaman returned to action after being pulled off the trading block and had 10 points, 12 boards and a couple blocks. I’d pick up Kaman over Ayon if you’re looking at the duo.



Elton Brand was out with a thumb injury and Lavoy Allen started in his place for the Sixers, but had just four points and four rebounds. Brand is hoping to return on Wednesday.



Jason Kidd (calf) is targeting a Wednesday return for Dallas, while Roddy Beaubois was struggling in Kidd’s absence recently.



Jameer Nelson returned from a concussion for one of his best games of the season with 15 points and 12 assists. Maybe he’s finally ready to start playing well for Orlando, but I need to see him do it a couple more times before being convinced anything has changed.



Jared Dudley was back after a one-game absence and scored 10 points in a start for Phoenix, and can be reinserted into fantasy lineups.



Manu Ginobili (hand) could return within a week for the Spurs, so it’s time to grab him if he’s somehow still sitting out there in your league.



Other Noteworthy Performances



Hot



DeMarcus Cousins stayed hot with 28 points and 19 rebounds for the Kings, and has racked up 15 or more boards six times this season, and has hit 19 or more four times.



Blazer LaMarcus Aldridge blew up for a season-high 39 points to go along with six rebounds and a block, as his big season rolls on. Marcus Camby had 15 more rebounds and is a nice starting option right now.



Raptors Jerryd Bayless and Linas Kleiza each scored 30 points on Monday, as Bayless hit six 3-pointers and Kleiza knocked down four of them. Bayless had just three points on Friday, causing me to stupidly cut him, while Kleiza has scored 15, 17 and 30 points in his last three games, knocking down nine threes over that stretch. The Raptors are a rotational mess, but both of these guys are hot enough to be owned in most leagues.



Trevor Booker started again for Andray Blatche and got hot, hitting 7-of-10 shots for 19 points, four rebounds, three steals and three blocks for the Wizards. He won’t do this every night, but is at least worth a look.



Andrew Bynum went off for 20 points, 20 rebounds and three blocks for the second 20-20 game of his career. Kobe Bryant had 24 points and passed Shaquille O’Neal for No. 5 on the all-time NBA scoring list.



Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, John Wall, Nick Young, Lou Williams, Steve Nash, Channing Frye, Tim Duncan, Marc Gasol, Luis Scola. Isaiah Thomas, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka also all had monster lines for their owners on Monday.



Not



Samuel Dalembert played just seven minutes for the Rockets, as Kevin McHale continues to limit his minutes as the slump continues. He’s scored seven or less in six straight games and hit rock bottom last night. He’ll likely get it turned around at some point, but should be on fantasy benches for now. It would be nice to hear McHale’s reasoning for turning on Sammy D, but we haven’t heard anything yet.



Hedo Turkoglu, who is dealing with a sore knee, played 25 minutes for Orlando on Monday, but missed all six of his shots and failed to score. Fail being the key word. Hopefully his knee is OK and this is just a slump. Jason Richardson stayed hot with 20 points, and should be added in most leagues after scoring between 17 and 20 points in his last three games.



Devin Harris had nine points and four assists for the Jazz, while Earl Watson failed to score or dime in 11 minutes. Watson had eight points and 11 assists on Saturday, but will continue to be inconsistent coming off the bench behind Harris, who is not exactly a model of consistency himself.



Jason Thompson, who came in hot, played just 17 minutes, finishing with four points, two rebounds and four fouls. Hopefully it was the foul trouble that limited him, although Chuck Hayes played through his banged up shoulder and had two points, five rebounds and six assists in 25 minutes. I picked JT up and put him in a couple lineups this week after he went off for 15 points and 16 boards on Saturday, but am already regretting that decision.



Houston’s Kevin Martin hit just 1-of-9 shots for eight points and is now 2-of-19 over his last two games with a total of 10 points. It’s a slump and he will bounce back, hopefully against the Blazers on Wednesday.



I’m sure I left off some Hot and Not players you care about, but I’m trying to keep this column at a length that will fit in the email version, which I failed to do on Monday. Good luck wading through all these injuries, as it’s become clear the lockout is not serving anyone well right now on the injury front. Tuesday will be a busy news day, so be sure to hit that refresh button throughout the day as you follow along with the fates of Billups, Melo, Rose, Gallinari, Amare and the rest of the injured fantasy studs who will be getting their street clothes wardrobes in order soon.

 

[HacheMan]

Galloping Greivis

Who will get the minutes? It’s a simple question that rarely has a simple answer.

Coaches are constantly tinkering and toying with their rotations. Sometimes it has to with injuries and in other instances, it’s a result of ineffective play from a certain player. The impact this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Every Tuesday for the rest of the season, I’ll explore a certain aspect of half the league’s rotations while attempting to get inside coaches’ heads. The idea isn’t to tell you what Kevin Love and LeBron James are going to do -- it’s to decipher how much burn fringe players are going to get.

Here’s last week’s Position: Shooting guard
There’s something to be said about actually earning minutes. Greivis Vasquez was the No. 28 overall pick in the 2010 draft and barely played for the Grizzlies. They quickly gave up on him, trading him to New Orleans for Quincy Pondexter. Fast forward a few months, and Vasquez is pushing for 35 minutes per night as the Hornets’ best player.

Over the last five games, Vasquez is averaging 16.2 points, 7.8 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.2 3-pointers and 1.0 steals while playing 32.8 minutes. He’ll certainly take a hit when Jarrett Jack (knee) returns, but the Hornets will find a way to keep Vasquez around 30 minutes. Marco Belinelli and DaJuan Summers have both had shots as the starting shooting guard and faceplanted. Eric Gordon (knee) won’t rush back for a 4-21 team. At 6’6/211, Vasquez has the size needed to play off the ball. Add it all up and we have a long-term fantasy asset, not just a plug-n-play.

CLIPPERS
Position: Shooting guard
Chauncey Billups sustained an apparently serious Achilles’ tendon injury on Monday night. It’s possible he’s done for the season.

Billups missed two games earlier this year. Mo Williams started at shooting guard in the first game and Randy Foye started at shooting guard in the second game. Here are their average numbers in those two games:

Mo Williams: 13.0 points, 5.5 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 1.5 3-pointers, 32.7 minutes
Randy Foye: 7.0 points, 2.0 assists, 1.5 rebounds, 0.5 steals, 1.5 3-pointers, 22.7 minutes

Assuming Billups is out long-term, Foye is the one more likely to step into the starting five. He gives the backcourt some size at 6’4” and Williams has been on fire as the second unit’s primary playmaker/scorer. However, Williams is the one to really be excited about in fantasy. His minutes will go from around 27 to around 32 as he closes out games next to Chris Paul. Williams is no longer a candidate to get traded at the deadline.

Foye, meanwhile, will be a secondary player on the first unit. Paul will have the ball in his hands, meaning Foye will be fighting with Blake Griffin and Position: Power forward
Watching Marreese Speights play is painful. Here’s a 6’10/245 guy with a nice jumper that just doesn’t get it. The Sixers banished him to the bench and the trading block and now the Grizzlies are finding out why.

Over the last five games, Speights is averaging just 16.2 minutes per game even though he’s started every one. The first five minutes of the game are enough for him to make a boneheaded play, take a bad shot or forget a defensive assignment. Dante Cunningham projects to play more minutes than Speights each night until Position: Small forward
The entire Utah lineup is now healthy, giving us a good look at the pecking order. Raja Bell and Gordon Hayward are the clear starters, while Josh Howard, C.J. Miles and Alec Burks are all on the outside looking in.

Bell is in there for his defensive abilities, frustrating Miles’ supporters. Over the last five games, Miles is averaging just 18.2 minutes. He hasn’t topped 25 minutes since Jan. 17. Coach Tyrone Corbin simply isn’t on board.

Hayward, meanwhile, is a Corbin favorite. He’s started every single game this year and has topped 30 minutes in four straight games. In the last five games, Hayward is averaging 13.2 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.8 blocks and 0.6 3-pointers while playing 33.0 minutes per night. The Jazz are willing to ride with him, giving his fantasy-friendly game room to grow. Hayward won’t even be 22 years old until next month. Upside.

KINGS
Position: Small forward
Over the course of an 66-game season, there are going to be fluky nights. John Salmons had two of them in the last week, sending owners running to the waiver wire. Don’t fall into the trap.

Salmons is locked in as the starting small forward, but that’s not a good place to be. Tyreke Evans can play the small forward spot as well, allowing the Kings to get either Isaiah Thomas or Jimmer Fredette into the lineup at point guard when they see fit. At age 32, Salmons is not part of the future and certainly not part of the solution in Sacramento. He’s shooting 38.0 percent from the field and 29.0 percent from 3-point range while deferring to Evans, DeMarcus Cousins and Marcus Thornton. Even though Salmons projects to hover around 28 minutes the rest of the way, there’s no upside here.

LAKERS
Position: Small forward
Matt Barnes had his chance to be the starting small forward for the rest of the season. He blew it by averaging just 7.8 points and shooting 43.0 percent in his 16 starts.

Now Metta World Peace is back in the starting five and predictably scuffling. In his five starts, MWP is averaging 3.4 points and 3.4 rebounds even though he’s playing 27.1 minutes. Outside of the Lakers’ Big Three, the entire team safely be ignored.

MAVERICKS
Position: Point guard
Let’s be very clear on one thing: When healthy, Jason Kidd is the Mavericks’ starting point guard. He’s a future Hall of Famer that is one year removed from a Championship. Dallas’ starting unit prefers to play with Kidd. Check out these quotes that followed Friday’s loss to the Pacers:

“Without Jason Kidd, who is usually good at figuring out who’s hot and who’s not, we’re going to figure out what we need to do to make sure people stay in rhythm,” said Jason Terry.

“We need Kidd healthy,” said Dirk Nowitzki.

I like Roddy Beaubois just as much -- if not more -- than most. But the bottom line is that Beaubois has had plenty of chances to run with the backup point guard job and failed to do so. He’s a scorer, not a point guard -- and coach Rick Carlisle/the team isn’t down with that.

So Position: Small forward
Danilo Gallinari has a chip fracture in his ankle. He’ll undergo further testing Tuesday before a timetable is released.

There’s no direct add here thanks to the Nuggets’ impressive depth and balanced style. Coach George Karl has made it a priority to keep his bench mob intact, especially running Andre Miller and Al Harrington together. He even went as far to start Julyan Stone and Kenneth Faried on Monday when Arron Afflalo (ankle) and Nene (heel) were sidelined.

The bottom line is that everyone in the rotation will get a boost in shots and minutes. Harrington may be forced into the starting five, making him the biggest beneficiary. Rudy Fernandez is going to push for 30 minutes as he replaced Gallo’s 3-point ability. Miller will get more burn as Afflalo kicks to the “three” some. Defensive stopper Corey Brewer has the potential to carve out 18-24 minutes. Gallinari was playing 33.0 minutes per game and taking 11.7 shots to go with 5.8 free throws. Spread that around.

<!--RW-->

ROCKETS
Position: Center
Yes, Samuel Dalembert was simply benched on Monday night en route to seven minutes. “We had no zip,” coach Kevin McHale explained.

Dalembert often has his head in the clouds. Prior to Monday’s benching, he hadn’t topped 30 minutes since Jan. 21. He played 20 minutes against the Wolves on Saturday night and had one rebound. He needed to get benched, to get a message.

Dalembert is competing for minutes with Jordan Hill and Jeff Adrien. It shouldn’t even be a contest. Once refocused, 25-28 minutes will be a cinch. No one should be making a habit of dropping guys capable of 2.0 blocks per game. It’s too rare of a commodity.

SPURS
Position: Shooting guard
Manu Ginobili (hand) is expected back “in the next week or so,” according to coach Gregg Popovich. That will finally put to rest the mess that has become the Spurs’ rotation.

Kawhi Leonard will return to a defensive stopper off the bench role and Gary Neal will be the designated bomber off the bench. Ginobili should quickly ramp back up to 25-28 minutes per night -- his broken hand didn’t prevent him from conditioning over the last month.

SUNS
Position: Power forward
Coach Alvin Gentry has messed around with his lineup a lot this season. When Channing Frye first lost his starting power forward job, the Suns were 4-9. They proceeded to go 2-3 with Markieff Morris starting. Then Frye reclaimed the gig and the Suns are 4-2 in their last six, including a win at Atlanta on Monday night.

The bottom line is that Frye needs to make shots. His old college coach, Lute Olson, came by practice to try to help. Gentry has been preaching confidence. Frye admits that after he misses a couple, he gets gun-shy. That’s when Gentry has no choice but to take him out of the game.

Frye is a career 44.6 percent shooter that is at 36.0 percent this year. He’s only 28 years old. The smart money is on Frye getting hot and giving owners those unique 3-point/block/rebound numbers. Even if he’s capped around 27-30 minutes, the extreme roto-friendly nature of Frye’s game makes him worth a hold.

THUNDER
Position: Power forward
As always, coach Scotty Brooks’ rotation remains among the most stable in the league. He made the mistake of starting James Harden in place of an injured Thabo Sefolosha last week and quickly realized the error, sticking Harden back in his sixth man role next time out.

Still, the spot that continues to cause the most hand-wringing is Serge Ibaka’s minutes. Things are starting to look up there for owners. On the season, Ibaka is averaging 27.1 minutes. But in the last 10 games, he’s at 31.2 minutes and blocking an absurd 3.4 shots per night.

While Brooks is never and should never phase out a glue guy as good as Nick Collison, Ibaka is earning more and more burn. His field-goal percentage (49.4) and free-throw percentage (58.3) are both well below expectation. There’s a lot of room to grow here.

TIMBERWOLVES
Position: Center
Darko Milicic has missed four of the last six games due to an illness and knee/quad issues. But make no mistake, Nikola Pekovic was on the verge of supplanting Darko as the Wolves’ primary center anyway.

Pekovic has played 20 or more minutes six times this season. The Wolves are 5-1 in those games and 7-11 in all other games. It’s not a coincidence. In those six games, 6’9/290 Pekovic is averaging 14.8 points, 8.1 rebounds and 0.5 blocks. He gives the Wolves a toughness that Milicic is simply incapable of.

Even if Milicic sticks as the starter, it’s not a huge concern to Pekovic owners. Darko is one of the most foul- and injury-prone players in the league. He’s never played more than 24 minutes per game over the course of a season and is at 18.3 this year. Pekovic’s floor going forward projects as 20 minutes a night, with the potential for much more when Darko is hurt and/or saddled with foul issues.

TRAILBLAZERS
Position: Sixth man
Nicolas Batum is one of the better all-around players in the league at age 23. He’s proving to be an elite shooter and scorer while also acting as the Blazers’ top perimeter defender. The minutes will come.

Right now, Batum is stuck in the 26-29 minute range. But all it takes is one injury to any member of the Blazers’ core for that to change. Raymond Felton (foot) is out now, Marcus Camby will be hurt soon, Gerald Wallace has missed at least six games in each season of his career. Batum is a hold with the potential to be a beast when in the 31-35 minute range.

WARRIORS
Position: Small forward
Dorell Wright didn’t play in the fourth quarter or overtime on Saturday, but that was just due to game flow. Nate Robinson and Klay Thompson sparked a surge, so they stayed in the game.

The real news is that Brandon Rush hasn’t been threatening Wright at all. Over the last 10 games, Rush us playing just 22.7 minutes even though he’s shooting 58.1 percent from the field. During that same span, Wright is playing 29.1 minutes and shooting 48.2 percent from the field.

More importantly, Wright has started every single game he’s been active for this season and has found his shot of late. Over the last five games, Wright is shooting 52.5 percent and has made 17-of-34 3-pointers. There’s room for his fantasy-friendly game to keep growing after that horrific start.

 

[HacheMan]

Grand Theft Roto: Atypical statistics

By Tom Carpenter
Special to ESPN.com

One of the beauties of basketball is that regardless of your shape, size or position, you can score points. If you're a 7-foot center, you can use your height to toss shots over your opponent in the paint. If you're a bulky power forward, you can use your weight to bang through your defender and score from the post. If you're a quick 5-10 point guard, you can blow by your opponent to get easy layups. And if you're somewhere in between the biggest and smallest, you can square up from beyond the arc and drop open jumpers.




You want proof that you can score from any position on the court? Just look at the positions of the top six scorers in the NBA: SG Kobe Bryant, SF LeBron James, SF Kevin Durant, PF Kevin Love, PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge and PG Derrick Rose. Every position is represented amongst the elite scorers in the Association.




However, while scoring is an equal opportunity statistic, the same cannot be said about the other stats we use in Fantasyland. That's because those other stats are affected dramatically by your physical skill set. Guards are typically quick and pressure the opposing ball handler, so they are apt to compile more steals than big men, who are typically slower than a guard and don't pressure the ball handler. On the flip, though, shorter guards defending people outside the paint are less likely to rack up blocks when compared to a big man who does his work closer to the basket. Going further, most guards carry a lower field goal percentage because they take more jumpers than a big man, who takes most of his shots close the rim. On the other hand, guards are typically better shooters, so their free throw percentage usually is higher than big guys.




This all means that a player who is an exception to these trends -- i.e., one who compiles stats that are unusual for his position -- carries that much more value in fantasy terms. This is particularly important in rotisserie leagues when you are trying to catch up in a specific category. For example, if you are way behind in 3-pointers and need to max out your team's 3-point production the rest of the season to catch up, you'll want to have quality 3-point shooters filling out your guard and small forward spots and have one or two of the rare big men who rack up treys.


Let's examine players you can target in trades, because they produce stats in categories that are unusual for their positions.

Steals




Potential targets: SG/SF Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia 76ers (1.8 per game), SF Rudy Gay, Memphis Grizzlies (1.7), SF LeBron James, Miami Heat (1.7), SF Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers (1.6), C Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic (1.5), PF Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz (1.5), SF/PF Gerald Wallace, Portland Trail Blazers (1.5), PF/C Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons (1.5), SF/PF Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks (1.3)




We expect our steals to come from our point and shooting guards, so when we can plug in a forward -- or even a center -- who can match that level of production, it's golden. I got the idea for this column when I was drooling over the 1.5 steals per game Monroe has cranked out this season. He hinted at this ability as a rookie last season when he averaged 1.6 per game after the All-Star break. Since he's 6-11 and 250 pounds, I wasn't convinced he could do it over the long haul, but he's proved himself thus far in his sophomore campaign. Monroe has at least one steal in 18 consecutive games and 11 times this season he has swiped at least two balls in a game. Granted, he doesn't come through with big-man blocks (0.5 per game), but the steals make up for it.




Blocks




Potential targets: SF/PF Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks (2.0 per game), SF James Johnson, Toronto Raptors (1.5), SF Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder (1.5), SG Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat (1.4), PG John Wall, Washington Wizards (1.0)




While it's an exception for a big man to rack up swipes, it's even rarer for a small forward or guard to block shots at a reliable pace. The five guys listed here are the only non-bigs who are averaging at least one rejection per game this season. Wall's pace of one each contest is particularly impressive as a point guard. It certainly reflects his ridiculous physical skills to be able to swat a shot each game, despite not playing defense near the rim. Rodrigue Beaubois didn't make the list because he hasn't seen enough action to have a quality per-game average, but the 6-2 guard has averaged 1.6 blocks per game in his five starts to date. He's worth keeping an eye on if he ever earns a full-time role.




3-pointers




Potential targets: PF Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves (1.8 per game), PF/C Matt Bonner, San Antonio Spurs (1.7), PF Al Harrington, Denver Nuggets (1.6), PF/C Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors (1.4), SF/PF Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets (1.4), PF Antawn Jamison, Cleveland Cavaliers (1.4)

Almost as rare as small shot-blockers are big men who can bomb from beyond the arc. Jamison and Harrington have been doing it for years, while Love, Bargs and Gallinari are the new breed (although Bargnani and Gallinari are currently out with injuries). Once upon a time, Dirk Nowitzki was the king of long-range bigs, but those days are long gone now, because he doesn't attempt enough 3s and is shooting an embarrassing 21.6 percent from outside the arc this season.

Field goal percentage




Potential targets: PG Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns (55.6 FG%), PG Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers (51.5 FG%), PG Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers (50.0 FG%), SG Ray Allen, Boston Celtics (49.5 FG%), PG/SG Mo Williams, Los Angeles Clippers (48.9 FG%), PG Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks (48.6 FG%), PG Andre Miller, Denver Nuggets (47.6 FG%), SG James Harden, Oklahoma City Thunder (47.1 FG%), PG Ty Lawson, Denver Broncos (47.1 FG%)




I discussed the weight of percentages last week, so you know that you'll have to take the quality percentages Nash and Miller post with a grain of salt, because they don't attempt enough shots to make a big difference in your rankings. However, every little bit helps, so you can't just ignore them. I'm really impressed with Irving, because he's a rookie point guard on a bad team, so it's staggering he can hit half of his shots. Harden and Lawson should maintain or improve upon these percentages as they mature as pro ballers.




Free throw percentage




Potential targets: PF Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves (81.8 FT%), PF/C Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors (84.3 FT%), SF/PF Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets (84.3 FT%), PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers (78.9 FT%), PF/C Chris Bosh, Miami Heat (82.0 FT%), PF/C Amare Stoudemire, New York Knicks (81.1 FT%)




This list is thinned out a bit now, because Bargnani and Gallinari are hurt, and Stoudemire is attempting just 5.1 free throws per game this season. That's 2.6 fewer than last season and barely half of the 9.9 he attempted at his peak during the 2004-05 campaign with the Phoenix Suns. Still, when you look at big men like Dwight Howard and Blake Griffin, who can single-handedly sink your team in free throws, you can ride these other exceptional bigs to get you headed in the right direction.




Rebounds




Potential targets: SF LeBron James, Miami Heat (8.5 per game), SF Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder (8.3), SF/PF Gerald Wallace, Portland Trail Blazers (6.7), SG/SF Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia 76ers (6.6), SF Rudy Gay, Memphis Grizzlies (6.6), SF/PF Shawn Marion, Dallas Mavericks (6.2), SF Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks (6.0)




It's tougher for a small forward to pile up boards than a power forward or center, because he's not in the paint as often. So these guys who all average at least 6.0 boards per game are particularly impressive. The most amazing guy in this group is Iggy, who is eligible at shooting guard and averages 6.6 rebounds per game. If you're trying to catch up in boards, Iggy's a player you almost have to trade for.




Assists




Potential targets: SF LeBron James, Miami Heat (6.8 per game), SG/SF Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics (5.5), SG/SF Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia 76ers (5.2), SF Hedo Turkoglu, Orlando Magic (4.6), SF Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks (4.2)




So you can't pry a stud point guard off of one of the owners in your league, but you need dimes? Well, you can go trade for Pierce and Turkoglu, which would give you more than 10 assists per game between them. It's a backdoor route to success, and odds are your opponent won't realize the true fantasy value that comes with dime production from a small forward.




You may have noticed that several players appeared in more than one category. That proves the tremendous fantasy value of guys like LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Josh Smith, Carmelo Anthony, Rudy Gay, Andrea Bargnani, Gerald Wallace and Danilo Gallinari. Not only do they crank out terrific fantasy stats in general, but they exceed the standards expected from the positions they play on the court.

 

[HacheMan]

Montazuma's Revenge

After a record-breaking day for news and just about everything else on Monday, last night was thankfully light. Folks talk about the players suffering from the lockout, but in the nobody cares department NBA writers have been put through the ringer after an endless (and busy) offseason of non-news news stories. That was followed by a three-week preseason that included four months’ worth of news, and fast-forward to today the action comes in flurries and it doesn’t really stop. I said before the season that the experienced and aggressive fantasy owner would clean up in this cornucopia of basketball hysteria, but what I failed to mention is that we all might go crazy in the process.



And my guess is that next year when the action slows down we’ll miss every second of it.



To be the guy in your league that nabs the Jeremy Lins and click here to follow me on Twitter.



FANTASY JACKPOT



The Thunder visited the Warriors in one of the better games of the year, and like when the Patriots and Saints get together there will be a number of fantasy matchups won on the strength of this game.



Monta Ellis scored a career-high 48 points on a ridiculous 18-of-29 shooting (including three treys) with seven rebounds, two assists, two steals, and a block, Stephen Curry hit 7-of-9 shots for 16 points with seven boards, 10 assists, two steals, and a three, and David Lee became the first Warriors PF since Chris Webber to triple-double with 25 points, 11 boards, 10 assists, and one block for good measure.



Not to be outdone, Kevin Durant had 33 points, 10 boards, seven assists, a steal, a block, and two threes, while Russell Westbrook had 31 points on 12-of-21 shooting with seven assists, two steals, a block, and a three. Westbrook also had nine turnovers, which is what happens when you tell a 23-year old shooting guard playing point guard to attack relentlessly, but also to play like Scott Skiles would. James Harden scored 19 points with a full stat line, and Daequan Cook hit 6-of-8 shots for a season-high 17 points with five 3-pointers and three rebounds in Thabo Sefolosha’s (foot) absence. I’m not too worried about Serge Ibaka’s 27-minute, seven-point, six-board, blockless night. He got wrecked on Ellis’ late-game and-one, but jumping on him for that would be like saying Kendrick Perkins was a difference-maker on a night his man scored 39 points. I mean, who does that?



THE GOOD



Darren Collison hit 10-of-14 shots for a season-high 25 points with four rebounds and five assists, and yes, now is the time to move him while the going is good. I’m not scared about George Hill stealing his job when he returns, but he’s a near-lock to cut into Collison’s value a little bit and gives Frank Vogel somebody to turn to if DC hits the skids.



Paul Silas did everything he could to publicize Reggie Williams for fantasy owners, and Williams is still floating around some 12-team leagues after a 21-point night that included three rebounds, five assists, and two 3-point shots. Yes, he has threats in the form of D.J. Augustin (toe), Gerald Henderson (hamstring) and Corey Maggette (hamstring), but only Augustin is close to returning and Williams fits the mold of Charlotte’s game plan going forward. And given how much Silas loves him, fantasy owners should, too.



Steve Nash (18 points, 11 assists) hit a game-winning layup on his 38^th birthday and that has to be an NBA record. He’s paying off owners that stayed faithful after his slow start. Jared Dudley scored 19 points with four boards, three assists, and three treys, and looks to have turned the corner after a rocky start, too.



Drew Gooden got back in owners’ good graces with a season-high 25 points and a block, though he only had four rebounds. He’s about as stable as one can get in Scott Skiles’ rotations and is a must-own player until further notice.



Nikola Pekovic started for injured/ineffective Darko Milicic (ankle), scoring 23 points on 9-of-12 shooting with 10 rebounds, three steals, and two blocks. Kevin Love (suspension) was out, but Pekovic should really be sending Ricky Rubio portions of his meager paycheck. Easy buckets and putbacks will keep Pekovic putting up solid numbers all year, and only Craig “Nasty Nate” Smith would scare me more if an NBA player was chasing me. Michael Beasley scored 17 points with 14 boards with Love out and this definitely qualifies as a sell-high moment. I don’t doubt that Beasley will have his moments this season, with ‘moments’ being the operative word.



BUCK SHOTS



I’ve been driving the sell-high bandwagon on Brandon Jennings around here for three reasons. First, his now 43.1 percent field goal shooting has already reverted back toward his 38.7 percent career average and I expect it to continue. Second, he has a nice backup PG playing behind him in Beno Udrih. Third, Scott Skiles has no problem putting the youngster in check.



Let’s add a fourth reason. Jennings reportedly criticized Scott Skiles, albeit in an indirect manner, but he wanted Stephen Jackson on the court and not on the bench last Saturday. This news hit the wire yesterday, and later in the evening Jennings went 1-for-4 for three points in an uninspiring effort. Beno Udrih played 19 minutes and scored six points on 3-of-6 shooting with three rebounds, four assists, and a steal. Owners need to hope this is a blip on the radar and he comes back with a big game on Wednesday against horrible defender Jose Calderon. If you’re looking for reasons to sell the precocious Jennings after he gets back on track, there are four of them.



While we’re making love to Milwaukee, Stephen Jackson (12 points, two rebounds, four assists, two threes) finally got back on the court and played 30 minutes. I started him last week and benched him this week, fully ignoring my gut-instinct that he was going to get back on the court. Though it felt like Skiles couldn’t bench him further without incurring damage from both inside and outside of his house, donuts don’t work so well for me. There is no analysis that anybody can provide here outside of Skiles telling us that Jackson will play this much going forward, and even then there are no sure bets. I think you have to hold him in most cases for the chance he gets traded and provides value in the meantime, but in shallow formats it’s another story.



I’m buying Ersan Ilyasova’s overall value proposition to owners in 12-team leagues and he had another 17 points, 12 boards, two blocks, and a three last night, but owners will want to make the add with a side of whiskey or Maalox, or both. I’m selling Mike Dunleavy’s 17 points and four treys unless you’re looking for spot help.



LARRY, YOU HAVE PAUL ON LINE TWO



Paul Pierce scored 15 points with eight boards, nine assists, and two threes last night as he passed Larry Bird to become No. 2 on the Celtics’ all-time scoring list. It’s an incredible honor and Pierce will be a lock for the Hall of Fame, but allow me to rain on his parade by telling owners to sell-high. The days of offense running mostly through him will be over once Rajon Rondo (wrist) is right.



ALL WE NEED IS A LITTLE PATIENCE



Bismack Biyombo was announced as the starting center for last night’s game and has been added in a bunch of leagues, but managed just three points, two boards, and no blocks in 22 minutes against the Celtics. I’ve held Biyombo all year in my deeper 12-team, big money league and managed to add him in a few others, and I’ll tell you guys what I’m telling myself – cut him if you must but otherwise ride the waves. It’s hard to imagine a better scenario than he has in Charlotte.



GEE WHIZ



Alonzo Gee started at small forward last night and scored 17 points on 6-of-11 shooting with one rebound, one assist, two steals, a block, and a three in 35 minutes. I added him in the aforementioned league ($35 of $1,000) when my higher priority FAAB plays weren’t rich enough, and over the past two weeks he is providing mid-round value on the strength of 12.4 points, 0.9 threes, 4.6 boards, 2.0 steals, and 50 percent field goal shooting in 30 minutes per game. Sure, there’s a handful of risks in the form of Daniel Gibson (neck), Anthony Parker (back), and Omri Casspi, but Byron Scott has taken Gee under his wing and all of this adds up to a near must-own value in 12-team leagues. Gee fits the profile of a guy the Cavs will want to develop, assuming he continues to hold up his end of the bargain.





MR. BIG SHOT



Chauncey Billups was ruled out for the rest of the season due to his Achilles’ injury, but said that he would be back on an NBA basketball court next season. I’m going to bet on that happening, and I’ll take a long-shot bet that he hits a big shot late in the next year’s Western Conference Finals – for the Lakers.



In the meantime if you haven’t added Randy Foye you’re probably too late, and I like him to put up late-round value with a hint of upside while Mo Williams flourishes with the increase in touches.


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DANILO GETS THE PARTY STARTED, MAKES THE PARTY STOP



George Karl said that Danilo Gallinari (ankle) could be out “a month” after doctors determined that the ‘chip-fracture’ they found was from a prior injury, and the best we can tell is that he might have a high-ankle sprain. He’ll be in a boot for 3-5 days and start rehab, and if the term ‘rehab’ is being used strictly then we’re certainly looking at a multi-week absence. And if we’re watching his music video, I’m pretty sure the John Wall hand movement is all he has.



Looking forward, Arron Afflalo (toe, ankle, not serious) and Rudy Fernandez (back, probable for Wednesday) are now worth a look in 12-team formats. Afflalo has disappointed this season and his production is way off the fantasy radar, and it’s probably due to a mix of injuries, his late start due to the lockout and contract negotiations, and the presence of Andre Miller. Schematically, the Nuggets have enough new and improved firepower in Miller, Ty Lawson, Al Harrington, Fernandez, and Gallinari to allow Afflalo to focus on defense. Will Gallinari’s absence require a change in focus? At least a little bit, but the Nuggets won’t exactly be in a pinch to score so it’s possible he continues to focus on defense.



On the other hand, Fernandez’s role is to score and hit threes, with anything else being icing on the cake. He’s already providing borderline value in 12-team, 8- and 9-cat formats on the strength of 1.3 threes and 1.1 steals in his 24 minutes per game. Does it make more sense for the guy built to shoot and score to pick up where Gallo left off? At least a little bit. My take here is that Fernandez is the better add despite an unclear role and the likely chance that he comes off the bench. Afflalo could easily pick up enough value to be worth an add, too, but with both guys a relative question mark I want the guy with the higher ceiling – and that’s Fernandez if he’s given the green light.



GROIN PAINS



Carmelo Anthony will be out 1-2 weeks with his groin injury, and the short-term pickup is going to be Bill Walker, while Steve Novak will be the other guy you want to keep an eye on. Toney Douglas has a small window to gain some momentum from the second unit, but it’s also starting to sound like his shoulder isn’t right. Combined with his poor play there are enough red flags for him to stay on the wire. The big winner is Amare Stoudemire, when he is done grieving over his brother’s tragic death. Jeremy Lin is a pure pick-and-roll player and he’ll get Amare rolling toward the hoop and that’ll bring stability and added productivity to his already improving game.



Elsewhere in the backcourt, Iman Shumpert and Landry Fields are must-own players in 12-team leagues as of today. Teams will scheme Lin out of the game more than they have been, and with some of Melo’s minutes landing in their bucket they’re favored to produce low-end results, at a minimum.



LINSANITY



There’s no real news here other than the post-game comments of Mike D’Antoni on Monday about riding Jeremy Lin like he’s “friggin Secretariat,” though I feel it’s necessary to point out that I thought he was talking about that game and not necessarily going forward. Do I think he’ll ride Lin going forward? Yes, but it’s not like Lin is the untouchable starting point guard of the Knicks right now. He’s just the point guard with the best chance to be effective and help the Knicks win, which is good enough for owners to be looking to add or hold. Now that he’s opened everybody’s eyes, he has every chance to solidify his role and I believe he’ll do exactly that.



STRUNG OUT



Monty Williams said that he believes Eric Gordon (knee) is 1-2 weeks away from “strenuous workouts,” and Thursday marks Day 14 of the 3-6 week timetable given to media on his last update. When I got that report and had to decide what to do with him in a daily league, I decided that he needed to stay on the three-week side of that timetable for me to hold on. Therefore, if he isn’t performing “strenuous workouts” on the one-week side of Williams’ prediction I’m out, which will be a huge net loss for my squad. I just can’t keep losing the productivity, and with each passing day that it’s being proven that his knee is all jacked up, the guarantee for future results gets diminished. It speaks to the way owners can get strung out by injured, early round guys in these formats, and there’s no real answer other than to cut-and-run early and live with the guy killing you later.



FOUR QUARTERS OF FURY



1^ST QUARTER: Ben Gordon (shoulder) still hasn’t gone through any contact drills, and given prior reports about “multiple tears” I’m not counting on a return anytime soon… which is good news for Brandon Knight and Rodney Stuckey. Knight (broken nose) practiced on Tuesday and should play Wednesday, and has a decent chance to pay off owners that started him in a three-game week. Spencer Hawes (back) is getting an MRI, and I’m getting antsy to pick up Nikola Vucevic in 12-team leagues. He has been spotty himself the past few weeks, but unless his knee/quad issue is more serious than anybody is letting on I have to think he’ll be a clear beneficiary if Hawes is damaged goods. The downside is that the Sixers are playing to win and Vucevic won’t have a long leash, and the upside is his fantasy friendly game.



2^ND QUARTER: George Hill (ankle) sounds like he’s coming back sooner than later, but he has a lot to prove before he substantially alters fantasy plans in Indy. MarShon Brooks (toe, Achilles) put up set shots and sounds like he’s a week or so away at least, but I’ve been adding him wherever I can. It’s a bit of a risk, but the upside is too much to ignore. Anthony Morrow (personal) is expected to be back for Wednesday’s game and should be in all lineups despite the chance he’s distracted by his grandmother’s death. Nene (heel) is a game-time decision on Wednesday and we’ll get a good idea of how hurt he is if he can’t go, since his presence is more needed with Danilo Gallinari (ankle) out. That said, the Nuggets will still play it safe. Samuel Dalembert was definitely benched on Monday, and it’s one of the better kept secrets that he has issues with effort and selfishness on the court. Am I dropping him? Fat chance.



3^RD QUARTER: Derrick Rose (back) is going to try to play on Wednesday, but he’ll be playing the Hornets and that’s a good opportunity to rest. He looked to be in significant pain on Monday and back injuries are no joke. Rose owners may want to bite the bullet and handcuff C.J. Watson, while those hunting for spot-starters may want to make a speculative add, too. Luol Deng (non-shooting wrist) says he “feels great,” but I’m not taking much at face value out of Chicago these days (and Deng is a gamer). That doesn’t mean he isn’t feeling better, but that I’m letting on-court results do the talking. Marcus Camby (bronchitis) is probable and needs to be in lineups barring a negative report. Raymond Felton (foot) is a game-time decision and I was admittedly bummed after calling him a buy low player last week. If the injury isn’t serious, I’m still on that boat, though it’s a real concern that conditioning could be at the root of his foot’s issue. Jason Kidd (calf) did some light jogging and still sounds like he’s about a week or so away.



4^TH QUARTER: Jarrett Jack (knee) practiced on Tuesday and will be a game-time decision on Wednesday, and the general sense is that Greivis Vasquez will get 25-plus minutes playing both guard slots once Jack returns. The only concern is that Monty Williams is a jerker, but it should still take a Jeremy Lin/Nikola Vucevic type for owners to pass on Vasquez at this point. He fits the picture in New Orleans. Jason Thompson (seven points, three boards, 25 minutes) and Isaiah Thomas (zero points) cooled off last night, and owners should set the sights lower for both. Thompson might have been playing over his head and injury risk Chuck Hayes is looming, while Thomas’ minutes are shaky and the bone-chip fracture in his left hand could be hindering him. Baron Davis (back) doesn’t expect to practice this week, and really, why should he? Linsanity bought him time to get things in order.

 

[HacheMan]

Player Rater: Sell-high options

Which players appear to have maximized their fantasy value already?


By Seth Landman
Special to ESPN.com

Last week, we took a look at some players who have been underachieving (at least in fantasy) in the early part of the season in order to think about players you might want to target in trades. Of course, there's another side to that coin. This has been a strange season, and that means there are quite a few players who have found themselves among the elite on the Player Rater but probably won't be there by the end of the season. Those are the players you might want to look to trade in the coming weeks if you can get good value for them. Here are a few to consider.




(Current ranking, based on per-game averages, in parentheses.)

Millsap




Paul Millsap, PF, Utah Jazz (19): I love Millsap's game, and his inclusion on this list is not an indictment of his style in any way, but it's going to be extremely tough for him to maintain the sort of value he's had so far this season. A quick look at his Hollinger stats shows he's averaging career highs in rebound rate, usage rate, turnover rate and free throw percentage, and while it makes sense for a guy who is 26 to be having the best season of his career, it just feels like there's room for some drop-off from his current level as the season wears on. In a way, it's already happening. He's taken a hit in field goal percentage from 54.3 in January to just 47.8 so far in February, and is averaging far fewer points as well. Another huge concern is that he's averaging 1.5 steals per game for the season but hasn't had more than one in a game in his past six games. He's playing fewer minutes than he did last season, and that's unlikely to change, given the plethora of power forwards vying for minutes on the Jazz roster. Millsap's going to keep playing great basketball all season, but to expect him to continue hanging around in the top 20 is probably a mistake.

Chandler




Tyson Chandler, C, New York Knicks (26): Traditionally, you draft Chandler in fantasy leagues because you know he'll get you rebounds and blocks while contributing in field goal percentage. That's usually just about the end of his list of contributions. This season, Chandler is doing all those things and more, and frankly, it's been pretty amazing so far. He doesn't take a ton of shots, but he's leading the league in field goal percentage (70.8 percent) by such a wide margin that the distance between Chandler and second place is roughly the same as the distance between second place and 82nd place. That's unlikely to continue, of course. In fact, if Chandler shoots anywhere near 70 percent for the season, he's going to set the all-time record. It's great that he's been this good so far, it's just unlikely to continue. There's more: Chandler is currently working on career highs in free-throw percentage and steals per game, and both by comfortable margins as well. Basically, his value is as high as it will ever be. Possible trade targets -- depending on what sort of stats you're looking for -- might be Pau Gasol and Al Jefferson, both of whom should be better than Chandler from this point forward and would be fantastic returns if you could get them.

Conley




Mike Conley, PG, Memphis Grizzlies (29): Conley is averaging 2.4 steals per game this season, which ties him with Ricky Rubio and Chris Paul for the league lead. Over his past five games, he's actually up to 2.6 per game, so he hasn't really necessarily done anything to warrant my skepticism. Still, last season he averaged just 1.8 steals, which was already a career high by a big margin, and to jump to 2.4 in the same number of minutes per game is pretty remarkable. There are other reasons he's on this list; first and foremost is the fact that his shooting percentage is falling rapidly, and 42.8 for the season is already less than stellar. Over the past five games, his assists are down as well, from 7.0 to 5.8. Those areas are definitely a concern, but the steals are the main reason you might want to consider trading him if you can afford to lose, say, one steal per game. For example, Philadelphia 76ers point guard Jrue Holiday is currently 64th on the Player Rater. His averages are actually better than Conley's in most areas -- scoring, rebounding, field goal percentage, 3s made -- but he's down a bit from Conley in assists and steals. If you can afford the slight drop-off from Conley to Holiday in those two areas, you could possibly trade a guy who has absolutely maxed out his value on the Player Rater for a guy who should be climbing up the ladder as the season goes on. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Conley and Holiday end up within a few spots of one another by the time the season is over.

Anderson




Ryan Anderson, PF, Orlando Magic (34): Anderson is having a very nice season, but he's really only a contributor in four fantasy categories: points, rebounds, free throw percentage and made 3-pointers. It's the last category that makes him special; he's leading the league by 10 3s over Anthony Morrow, and that separation means his fantasy value is heavily tilted toward that particular area. Dropping from 2.9 3s per game to, say, 2.2 (which is what he's averaging over his past five games) would be enough to almost knock him out of the top 50 on the Player Rater all by itself, but when you add in the drop-off in scoring that would come with fewer 3s, Anderson's fantasy status becomes a little more questionable. He could slip a lot in the rankings and still be a far better fantasy option than anyone expected heading into this season (his average draft position was 119), but that's no reason not to explore trading him while his value is at its absolute highest.

Teague




Jeff Teague, PG, Atlanta Hawks (59): Teague has been a nice story this season, piloting the Hawks to a record far better than anyone expected, especially with Al Horford missing significant time. Teague is extremely fast and has done a great job of getting to the rim and finishing with regularity, so much so that he's shooting 48.6 percent from the floor, a great percentage for a point guard, especially this season. He's also been a great source of steals, averaging 1.8 per game, but that number feels a bit tenuous. Over his past five games, he's averaging just 0.6 steals, including three games in which he had none. Just as troubling is that his minutes have fallen from 33.0 for the season to 28.4, and his assists have dropped from 5.0 per game to 4.0 over that same stretch. Part of this is because of Kirk Hinrich, who has played 19.0 minutes per game since his return to the lineup, but the other reason is simply that the Hawks have a lot of guards at the moment with Tracy McGrady and Willie Green both playing reasonably well off the bench as well. Given the fact that this is Teague's first season as a starter, it probably makes sense for the Hawks to try to regulate his minutes so that he doesn't wear down, but that's bad news for fantasy owners. I don't think he'll fall off much from his season averages, but even a small drop-off would really hurt his overall ranking; just dropping his steals per game from 1.8 to 1.6 would probably bring his ranking down from 59th to 70th. If you can afford to move him, wait for him to have another good game and then pull the trigger, because his value is probably at his highest.

 

[HacheMan]

Linsanity

I could have headlined this article with any number of the Jeremy Lin puns that I saw last night, but Linsanity is the only real way to describe the phenomena. I’m not going to pigeon-hole him into any Tim Tebow-like comparisons, because I’m sure Skip Bayless will do it for all of us later, but I will say that I’m actually looking forward to the hype. Lin has always come across as a humble kid that worked hard and never got a chance. What’s not to like about that? He put up 23 points on 9-of-14 shooting with a career-high 10 assists, a steal, a block, and one nice crossover on John Wall that finished in a dunk.



If you want to predict that he will be the waiver wire pickup of the year I’m not going to argue with you, and if you want to sell-high I’m not going to argue with you. It’s hard to go wrong selling a guy during a fever pitch, and it’s conceivable we’re looking at Lin’s ceiling with Carmelo Anthony (groin) and Amare Stoudemire (personal) out. But watching Lin direct world champion and All Star candidate Tyson Chandler during a break in play last night, it’s clear the kid has what it takes to manage the New York Knicks. It’s also clear that, as Doc pointed out on Twitter last night, that hundreds of talent evaluators in the NBA got it wrong here. My Warriors regularly barf all over themselves in this area, and to think they could have depended on Lin while trading one of their small guards for a small bounty is sickening.



More to the point, Lin has a game that lends itself to understated leadership, and that’s what owners will want to key on when Anthony returns, specifically. Make no mistake, if it’s not Jeremy Lin’s town already, it will be very soon unless Melo decides to hop on the bandwagon and play nice. If the Knicks lose with Melo back in tow, everybody and their mother will buy tickets for him out of town and calls to play with the ball in Lin’s hands will be deafening. The fact that Lin is a humble guy will help Melo live in his new reality – and that bodes well for the entire group. The best thing the Knicks can do is stick Anthony in the pick-and-roll with Lin on Day 1 and then on Day 2 and let them figure it out. Ditto Amare. Their return could signal a decline in Lin’s fantasy value, but if the Knicks build around Lin’s strengths and get their two other superstars going toward the hoop it could be a fantasy bonanza, too.



I said I wouldn’t kill you for selling high, and if you’re into that sort of thing consider his averages of 25.3 points, 3.7 boards, 8.3 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 treys, 0.3 blocks, 3.7 turnovers and 58% field goal shooting in 38 minutes per game in his last three contests – good for second round value in 9-cat leagues on a per-game basis. Looking forward, go ahead and slide the minutes down but not too much, knock his counting stats down if you like as he loses touches, and bring his shooting percentage back into Earth’s atmosphere. After I’ve done that I’m not willing to predict a drop-off below early mid-round value. So that’s my floor on a deal. And I’d be looking to get a fourth rounder at worst with the very real chance that Lin stays healthy and productive under Mike D’Antoni’s guidance.



Yes, I have follow me on Twitter right here.



YOUNG COACH SYNDROME



The best thing about this game was Will Ferrell announcing the starting lineups. Jarrett Jack (knee) was a late entrant to the starting lineup, sending Greivis Vasquez to the bench and maybe to the waiver wire in your league. Jack scored four points on 2-of-11 shooting with two rebounds and three assists in 28 minutes against a tough Bulls squad, and if we had to project things today we’d have to guess that Jack would be the starter 10 days from now. But really, it’s Monty Williams’ world and we’re all just getting jerked around in it. He refused to tell anybody who he was starting until well after Jack had finished in the layup line, and as Adam Levitan put it simply on Twitter, “they’re 4-22.” Maybe it’s time to lay off the caffeine, Monty. Vasquez, meanwhile, was rewarded for helping to carry the Hornets over the last week with 20 bench minutes, and finished with five points on 2-of-7 shooting, three rebounds, and four assists. Unless you have a sure-fire free agent on your radar I’d advise owners to exercise patience, but the leash here is going to be short with Monty exercising young coach syndrome.



A-FOYE MATEY!



Randy Foye debuted at shooting guard following Chauncey Billups’ season-ending Achilles’ injury, and predictably scored 15 points with two assists, a steal, and three triples in 28 minutes. Not trying to be that guy, but this is exactly what I pictured when Billups hit the floor. Foye tends to consistently post these numbers in this role. Congratulations if you aggressively made the add. Mo Williams hit just 2-of-10 shots for five points with three assists and two steals, and might have been pressing against his old Cavs squad. If somebody in your league wants to panic about it, by all means go out of your way to be a good citizen and help them out.



DeAndre Jordan might also be causing a panic with his recent knee soreness, and his zero shot attempts with four boards and two blocks last night aren’t helping. The good news for owners is that Jordan’s garbage-man game wasn’t a good fit against Anderson Varejao and it’s not like four rebounds is extremely out of character for him. I’m still preaching patience here and this could be a sneaky buy-low chance, with sneaky being the operative word. If he does it again we’ll hoist the red flag.



TWO DOWN, ZERO TO GO



The last time we checked on Blake Griffin he was blocking shots at a 2.4 per game clip over five contests, and I noted how the two-category punting play was morphing into a one-category punting play with free throws being the final blemish. Since then, Griffin decided to borrow Chauncey Billups’ pre-shot routine at the foul line, dribbling three times instead of just hoisting up the shot. And wouldn’t you know he has now hit 15-of-17 shots from the foul line over his last two games. He also posted a tidy 25 points, 15 rebounds, one steal, but didn’t have a block. That’s okay because it was his first game without a block in seven games, and including the eighth game last night he’s averaging 1.75 blocks per game. Back to the freebies, I’ve experienced it and seen it countless times – a player tweaks their shooting motion and gets instant results – only to fall back into prior patterns and show little-to-no improvement. Regardless, if there is a time to move on Griffin it will be sometime this week after a slow night. A ten percent increase from the charity stripe would catapult him up the charts.



THE DAY AFTER DANILO



Arron Afflalo slid over to small forward and had a quiet night with 12 points on 4-of-12 shooting with two threes, two steals and not much else. Rudy Fernandez scored 17 points off the bench on 6-of-9 shooting (including two threes) with three rebounds and a steal in 29 minutes, and as I mentioned yesterday looks like the better pickup of the two. Chris Anderson drew a start at center and played 14 minutes with two points, two boards, and two blocks, which may have satisfied owners looking for the latter category in a spot-start. Use the Birdman at your own risk.



CAVS REPORT



Kyrie Irving was a late, late-scratch yesterday after a concussion suffered in the fourth quarter of Tuesday’s game rendered him unable to go, and in stepped trade candidate Ramon Sessions with a career-night including 24 points, 13 assists, a steal, a block, and two threes on 9-of-16 shooting. Sessions is an interesting asset right now as the Cavs will ride him hard in preparation to move him, but his fantasy value will be entirely dependent upon where he lands if he’s moved. He shouldn’t be on any wires, but I’d tend to peg him as a sell high guy while there is some hopeful wonder out there that he will land as an unchallenged starter somewhere.



Daniel Gibson (neck) returned and jumped right into the Cavs’ starting lineup, and responded with 17 points, a steal, two blocks, and two 3-pointers in 35 minutes. The neck injury doesn’t sound too concerning, and Boobie is the Cavs’ best perimeter defender. He’s going to get minutes, but I can’t see calling him a must-add player in 8/9 cat, 12-team leagues just yet. He’s a better fit as a short-term add while guys are out with a decent amount of upside. Rounding out the Cavs report, Alonzo Gee played 32 minutes but struggled to hit 2-of-8 shots for seven points, three boards, three assists, and three turnovers. I don’t think you drop him after one bad effort but he has a 1-2 game leash for owners in the aforementioned formats.


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LAST NIGHT’S INJURIES



Kyle Lowry left last night’s game after suffering a hyperextended right (shooting) elbow, and was said to be in pain and his status for Thursday’s game is very questionable. If you added Goran Dragic upon learning the news it’s worth holding him for the update, but it appears Lowry avoided serious damage. And if the tenor of the injury news continues to trend toward ‘minor,’ it’s also a good time to buy low on Lowry.



Jerryd Bayless’ ankle injury was a mild gut-punch last night since I have him everywhere, but truthfully I had mentally prepared for it and I’m not too bothered by it in the long-run. Bayless takes it to the edge a la Stephen Curry, and it’s Dwane Casey’s job to make sure his player doesn’t overdo things for a team playing for ping pong balls. Leandro Barbosa played himself off of fantasy rosters over the past week or so, and had a nice line in just 14 minutes with 11 points and a three. Look for him to return to his scoring ways with Bayless possibly (probably) missing some time.



Anderson Varejao took a rough fall, landing on his head and back but it appears he avoided a concussion. He briefly left the game and finished with 15 points on 6-of-8 shooting, 11 rebounds, three assists, and a block. He gets an off-day on Thursday and there will be plenty of time to figure out his status in advance of Friday’s game.



Derrick Rose (back) didn’t get injured and he played as a game-time decision, but he seemed limited with just six points on 3-of-5 shooting with five rebounds and six assists in 22 minutes. The Bulls crushed the Hornets, and while there are some signs that Tom Thibodeau is starting to learn not to run his players into the ground – I’m not buying it just yet. Rose gets the Bobcats on Friday and it’s another opportunity to rest, but owners have to be a little concerned that Thibs’ players are willing to run through brick walls in games against ping pong ball talent.



Mario Chalmers (hand) was a surprise scratch when it was announced he would need an MRI after getting his left (non-shooting) hand caught in a jersey in Tuesday’s game. It didn’t seem serious at the time but it swelled up and we’ll have to see what results come back. Norris Cole started and scored nine points on 4-of-8 shooting with four assists and a 3-pointer in 31 minutes. Cole might have been figured out by defenses, or simply fell off after getting shot out of a cannon to start the year, but he shouldn’t be considered for anything but a spot-play unless Chalmers is to miss significant time.



Tony Allen (hip, knee) did not play and Quincy Pondexter scored a career-high 17 points, which gets filed into the fluke folder until he does it again. While we’re in Memphis, Zach Randolph was spotted putting up jumpers at shootaround but there is no real update on his timetable. I’d venture to guess that he’s on schedule right now and stashing him is a pretty good idea, especially in weekly, playoff formats.



Jason Terry’s (five points, five assists, 1-of-9 FGs) hip injury flew under the radar last night, but it caused him to leave the game late and his status for Friday’s game is questionable. Vince Carter scored 17 points with five boards, eight assists, two steals, and a block, and could be worth a look as a low-end, short-term pickup while Terry gets right – if he even needs to get right. Jason Kidd (calf) did not play and the Mavs are going to play it safe. I’ve been getting a lot of questions about whether or not to add Kidd and the short answer is ‘yes.’ We’ve seen his floor and the only way he can go is up, which could end up being a nice place for a waiver wire pickup in 8- and 9-cat leagues.



Ersan Ilyasova was given the alcohol/antacid add recommendation in this space yesterday after a nice line on Tuesday, and promptly missed last night’s game due to back spasms. Providing late-round value since moving to the bench, it’s safe for owners to give him a pass but he’s still not a must-own player given who he plays for.



THE GOOD



Tony Parker lit up the Sixers last night with 37 points on 12-of-24 shooting (13-of-13 from the foul line) with eight assists, a steal, and a block, and yes this is the perfect time to sell-high to an unsuspecting owner with Manu Ginobili (hand) looking like a go on Saturday.



Gary Neal scored 18 points on a perfect 4-of-4 shooting mark behind the arc and also chipped in with five boards and six assists. With Ginobili returning that’s not enough for an add in 12-14 team formats given the inconsistency he’s shown in the past.



Ryan Anderson got hot and scored 27 points with five triples and 11 rebounds. He’s providing early round value and unless there is a philosophy change in Orlando, it will take an injury to slow him down. He’s a guy to hold and target.



Carlos Delfino finally broke out with six 3-point buckets on his way to a season-high 25 points, and season-highs in rebounds (nine) and steals (four) in 34 minutes against the sieves in Toronto. Scott Skiles doesn’t know who he is playing nightly, so I wouldn’t expect anybody else out there to know, either. I’m calling Delfino an upside stash for the event he can prove his consistency, but if you’re counting on him to back it up on Friday against the Cavs (who struggle defensively) – you’re still doing it at your own risk. Stephen Jackson and Mike Dunleavy both played well, too, with Jackson scoring 17 points with a full stat line in 33 minutes and Dunleavy putting up 18 points in 32 minutes. Look at Dunleavy if you’re desperate and hunting spot-help, and Jackson is worth consideration for your lineup now. When asked if he wants to play in Milwaukee he said he’d get fined if he answered that question. You know where that’s heading.



James Johnson gave owners droppers’ remorse with 15 points on 7-of-11 shooting, seven boards, two steals, three blocks, and a three in 30 minutes. If you ask me whether or not you should dump him I’m going to tell you not to until he falls off a cliff. His upside is tremendous.



Landry Fields scored 16 points with eight boards, two assists, and a steal last night, and Iman Shumpert scored 17 points on 6-of-11 shooting (including a three) with four rebounds and three steals in 37 minutes off the bench. I mentioned this yesterday I believe, but the pair should both be owned well into the time that Carmelo Anthony (groin) and Amare Stoudemire (personal) return. There could be an adjustment period as the two superstars figure out how to play off of Lin, but I’m guessing Lin is the rising tide to lift all boats. Both Fields and Shumpert will now have clear-cut roles and I’m predicting they both hold late-round value throughout the rest of the year in 8- and 9-cat formats. And Fields – he and Lin are buddies and debuted their nerd-alert handshake last night. I’m only semi-kidding when I say there’s value there. As for Tyson Chandler, he scored 25 points with 11 boards, a steal, and a block and Lin’s arrival is just as good for him as anybody else. They better get the rims screwed on tight at MSG.



Josh Smith scored 28 points with 12 boards, three assists, five steals, and three blocks in a whopping 46 minutes. He’s slowly climbing back up to his draft day cost, posting third round value in 8-cat leagues and fourth round value in 9-cat leagues on a per-game basis.



Trevor Booker kept up his solid play with 17 points on 8-of-11 shooting and seven boards. Nothing I have seen has deterred me from calling Booker a must-own player in 12-team leagues over the next few weeks. Once Andray Blatche (shoulder) returns he’ll probably be a borderline value, but his insane athleticism and developing game give him some hope of keeping things up. On a side note, Booker limped a bit at one point last night but I’ve heard nothing about it – just keep an eye on it.



Jonas Jerebko scored 16 points off the bench last night with seven boards, two steals, and two blocks in 35 minutes, and while we’ve seen this movie all year long, he’ll be worth a look in 12-team formats and is a must-add player in 14-team formats. In the latter leagues, his inconsistency averages out to decent late-round value.



Chris Kaman played well again as the Hornets continue to showcase him for trade, scoring 17 points on 6-of-17 shooting with nine rebounds and three blocks. He’s worth a pickup if you need a big man, and might be worth a pickup anyway with the way the Hornets will likely ride him.


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THE BAD



Hedo Turkoglu hit just 1-of-6 shots for three points and was eaten up by the Heat. His 3-of-23 shooting slump over the past three games has owners panicking, but his body of work this year is too good to cut.



Jeff Teague played 25 foul-plagued minutes last night, scoring just five points with five boards and four assists, and Kirk Hinrich scored 17 points off the bench. Teague would have to regress badly to lose his starter’s minutes, and if we’re quantifying it, I think I said I was ‘five percent’ concerned two weeks ago and I’m ‘ten percent’ concerned today.



Nick Young hit 3-of-11 shots for seven points and Jordan Crawford hit 2-of-10 shots for seven points, and this is their first foray off the path they had chosen over the last two weeks. Young has been worth starting and Crawford has been a stronger add in 12-team formats that don’t penalize turnovers. Don’t let one game move the needle too much here.



Paul George hit just 1-of-8 shots for five points and not much else, and if you drop and/or move him I will send you a sternly worded letter.



Kevin Martin was benched after playing just 15 minutes, scoring four points on 2-of-5 shooting with two rebounds and two assists, and with no report of an injury it begs the question of what is going on in Houston. Whether it’s Kevin McHale’s fault or the players’ faults, the changing rotations and benchings are cause for some sort of concern. Samuel Dalembert scored just two points with three boards, two assists, a steal, and a block in 18 minutes, which actually represents an improvement over the past week. That they beat the Blazers last night means that McHale will be emboldened by the decisions, but often times a win in these cases will be followed by a return to playing the starters. It’s guesswork and it would be hard to pull Martin from lineups without an injury to report, while I still can’t imagine dumping Dalembert. Outside of acquiring Chris Kaman, there is simply nobody in Houston that can do what he does. As for bench performances by Courtney Lee (16 points, four boards, three assists, four triples) and Chase Budinger (22 points, four threes) – I’m selling those in such a jumbled scenario.



COULD YOU PASS THE CROW?



Kobe Bryant said that his wrist is completely healed, and while he might have some voodoo doctor somewhere I don’t believe him unless the wrist injury itself was an over-dramatization by his camp. All things considered, I’m not too bothered by my call to sell Kobe high for the type of return I described (Round 2 or 3). Poker players will tell you it’s not the result but the play you make that counts. You move risks when the value is high, and you take risks when you think you need to make a move. But in terms of pure results, Kobe has destroyed me on that prediction and nevertheless it’s only fair that I call myself out. It’s still worth asking if a player with his mileage will be able to keep it up.



FOUR QUARTERS OF (LINSANITY)



1^ST QUARTER: Danny Green got his first career-start and put up an increasingly familiar goose egg on five shot attempts, and needless to say his deep-league value is in the tank with Manu Ginobili (hand) coming back. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him fall off the radar, too. Elton Brand (thumb) returned to action after a two-game absence and promptly put up 11 points and 13 boards. He should be fine with Spencer Hawes (back) out and needs to be in lineups. Steve Novak was the spot-starting winner for the Knicks last night with five triples, four boards, and 17 points. Bill Walker hit just 2-of-10 shots for five points with six boards and both guys played 27 minutes. It looks like Novak is a better fit with Lin, so consider swapping the pair if you’re looking at them on Friday against the Lakers. Amir Johnson started at center for the Raptors on Wednesday, and I was strangely encouraged by his quiet seven-point, six-rebound, and one-block effort over 25 minutes. It reminds me of his early-season play, which gradually turned into something owners could work with.



2^ND QUARTER: Ben Gordon (shoulder) returned to action after reports had him sporting multiple tears and plenty of doom and gloom. He hit 6-of-7 shots (no threes) for 14 points with five boards, two assists, and two steals in 22 minutes off the bench. With plenty of question marks even if he retains a starting role, it’s only time to watch and owners of Rodney Stuckey (12 points, six assists) and Brandon Knight (13 points, four assists) shouldn’t be overly worried. Anthony Morrow returned from a one-game absence due to his grandmother’s death, and I speculated he might struggle in his first game back. That’s what he did with six points on 3-of-12 shooting, five boards, three assists, and a block, and there’s no reason to panic here. Jordan Farmar picked up the slack and scored 22 points on 8-of-13 shooting with three triples and three assists. If you want to pick up Farmar as a speculative, short-term add in 12-team formats go for it, but don’t drop anybody with semi-consistent value to do it. He’ll take a hit when guys get healthy. MarShon Brooks (toe) said he’ll be back real soon and I’ve been banging the drum. It’s probably too late now but add him for his upside and expected production. Keith Bogans hurt his foot badly last night, adding a few extra minutes to the Nets’ wing rotation.



3^RD QUARTER: J.J. Barea got hot with 17 points, three boards, six assists, two steals, and three triples as Ricky Rubio (four points, one assist) and Luke Ridnour (two points) struggled and Rick Adelman pulled his starters. Ridnour has now scored in single digits for 3-of-4 games and wasn’t a beacon of consistency prior to that. Feel free to cut him for a hot free agent with Barea playing his way back into shape. I don’t care that Marreese Speights grabbed 15 rebounds last night, as he needs to do that for a full week before I’ll trust him. I find Dante Cunningham’s 12 points and seven boards more interesting, but it doesn’t matter until you’re about 16-18 teams deep. Nikola Vucevic started for Spencer Hawes (back) and couldn’t get things going, and one has to wonder if his knee/quad isn’t right. Ditto for Hawes’ value this season, as his back is a major concern. I’m holding Hawes to see if any light can be shed on the topic.



4^TH QUARTER: Nene (heel) returned from a one-game absence last night, which is a decent sign for his overall health and the 16 points and 10 boards weren’t so bad themselves. Dwyane Wade’s tweaked ankle from Tuesday wasn’t a big deal as he exploded for 33 points. He’ll be a bit touchy all year, but what else is new. Antawn Jamison also tweaked a leg on Tuesday, didn’t show any problems with it last night as he scored a season-high 27 points with eight boards and three assists. He’s picking it up, which could mean it’s time to move the aging, injury-risk. Raymond Felton (foot) played and scored nine points on 4-of-11 shooting with six assists and five turnovers. There are problems with Nate McMillan’s backcourt and it appears to be systemic, which is the first blemish on Nate McMillan’s coaching season. I have to call off the buy low on Felton until his foot is right, but it’s clear that when it is that McMillan wants to run so I’ll be ready to put it back on. Marcus Camby (bronchitis) played and had an off-night, scoring no points with just five boards, two steals, and no blocks. He’ll be fine. Amare Stoudemire (personal) is targeting Monday for a return.

 

[HacheMan]

Potential blocks breakouts

By John Cregan
Special to ESPN.com

In the NBA's marquee matchup last night, Dwight Howard delivered one of his better performances of the season versus the Heat: 25 points (on only 14 field goal attempts), 24 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocks. A 20-20 is a great night by any standard, but this was already Howard's sixth of the campaign, as many as the rest of the NBA combined.




However, for Howard's fantasy owners, his most exceptional line in 2011-12 came last Friday versus the Cavaliers, when Howard swatted eight shots, nearly four times his season average of 2.2 blocks per game.




The truth is, when you own a player who averages 25.5 points and 14.0 boards a night, you should expect at least 10 games with 20 and 20 per season. And Howard is the rare rebounder who can affect a fantasy league's standing just with his own gaudy averages.

But eight blocks is the kind of night Howard will maybe -- maybe -- have once every couple of seasons. The most blocks he's ever had in a game is 10. The most anyone's had in a game this season? Also 10 (Serge Ibaka). As his owner, I'll take a Howard's eight-block night even over his 45-point beauty back on Jan. 12. (I'll take Dwyane Wade's three blocks last night -- from the shooting guard position -- over the 33 points he scored, because a three-block night from a guard is maybe a twice-a-week occurrence.)




Eight blocks is the kind of night that can sew up a win in a weekly head-to-head league or cause a team to jump two to three spots in a rotisserie league. And it's never been truer than as of this writing; in all the time I've written about fantasy basketball, blocks have never been at more of a premium.




This season, distribution of blocks per game across the player pool is insanely top-heavy, with premium production concentrated at Five Alive levels.




In a 10-team league, the average player posts about 0.7 blocks a night, which means in a 40-game H2H weekly matchup, swatting anything above 36 shots usually means a win in that category.




Due to the injury-plagued dynamic of this particular season, the blocks category presents a unique opportunity for fantasy owners: the ability to markedly improve one's team without making a trade. There are game-changing amounts of blocks popping up on the wire every day.




I picked up Marcus Camby in one rotisserie league last week, and within three days had shot up to first in that league in blocks. Sixteen blocks in four games can have that kind of effect. Right now, Camby's block percentage is all the way up to 5.9 percent, his highest since leading the league at 7.3 percent in 2007-08.




If you've never taken a look at blocks percentage (BLK%), well, I'm glad you're here, because it's one of my favorite stats. BLK% is a formula that estimates the percentage of field goal attempts blocked by a player while that player is on the floor. It's a very useful stat when trolling for untapped potential in the blocks category. If you want to calculate it yourself, use this simple formula:




100 * (BLK * [Team MP / 5]) / (MP * (Opp FGA - Opp 3PA)




(Or you can just look it up on Basketball-Reference.com. It's up to you.)




I use block percentage as a sort of a PER for blocks to project the way a high BLK% player could produce given more minutes. JaVale McGee is the official leader in BLK% this season at 7.9 percent, but there are a few players with higher BLK% who don't have enough minutes to qualify.




Let's look at some under-the-radar players that could be on the verge of a blocks breakout:




Bismack Biyombo, PF/C, Charlotte Bobcats (7.3 BLK%): I don't care if he's secretly 38 years old, I've been on Bismack Watch since he entered the league due to his mini-Ibaka potential and Bobcat membership. His being on the lottery-bound, frontcourt-bereft Bobcats spells a path to early and steady minutes. Biyombo's numbers are going to be up and down, but he's posted two double-doubles in the past 10 games while adding 16 blocks during the same span. He'll start putting it all together with greater frequency as the season progresses.




Trevor Booker, PF, Washington Wizards (4.0 BLK%): Many of you (up 15.2 percent in ownership) obviously agree with me that the time to scoop up Booker has arrived. Booker's a high-motor player on a bad, bad team; a solid prescription for fantasy-relevance. Blocks, steals, boards (though not as many as I'd like), some offense … a nice medium-upside add.




Brandan Wright, PF, Dallas Mavericks (8.1 BLK%): Wright has been something of a roto tease since he began his career playing Nellieball in Golden State. Injuries and a questionable motor have conspired to cancel out his considerable athletic upside, but like Anthony Randolph, Wright's talent occasionally forces him to surface on the fantasy radar. His minutes have been on the rise over the past couple of weeks, and his nine blocks in the past four games mean he's building some deep-league value. His off-the-charts 24.71 PER is another strong indicator of his potential.

Gustavo Ayon, PF, New Orleans Hornets (5.6 BLK%): Now here's a guy I really like; along with his solid BLK%, Ayon gets almost as many steals despite his being 6-foot-10. The Hornets' frontcourt is in a world of hurt, and management has already decided to give Ayon minutes ahead of the more established, Twitter-friendly Chris Kaman.




Fantasy history is littered with names of big men who have risen up with a hot couple months to close out a season, never to be heard from again (Mikki Moore, Anthony Tolliver), and Ayon could be one of those names. Don't forget, he's flourishing on a team that's dropping in overall value like it had just been bought by Bain Capital; 25 MPG could easily be in his future.




Rodrigue Beaubois, PG/SG, Dallas Mavericks (3.0 BLK%): Beaubois has done a lot in the past month to shake his "inconsistent" label. Once given a regular 28-30 MPG, Beaubois responded with a nice balanced run of box scores. Best of all were the 15 blocks in 11 games, a shockingly high total for a 6-foot-2 speed guy. Like the next guy on this list, if Beaubois were on a bad team, he'd already be a fantasy factor.




Kenneth Faried, PF, Denver Nuggets (10.2 BLK%): Add minutes, watch stats grow, repeat … free Kenneth Faried! Faried's played only 60 minutes total this season, but already has eight blocks (not to mention 28 points and 26 rebounds). If Faried were on a lottery team, he'd be a fantasy contributor, but for now, he's buried on Denver's depth chart.




He's absolutely worth keeping tabs on due to his overstuffed per-40-minute numbers and the precarious health record of the players ahead of him in Denver's frontcourt rotation. Oh, and his PER is a sky-high 23.20. Think DeJuan Blair, but with better block totals.




Brandon Rush, SG/SF, Golden State Warriors (2.6 BLK%): All 3s, blocks and steals, Rush is a prime example of a fringe player who can make a difference as a situational add in medium-to-deep leagues. And he obviously likes playing for Mark Jackson; just look at his career-high .569 clip from behind the arc.




Daniel Green, SG, San Antonio Spurs (2.9 BLK%): Sort of a junior version of Rush. Has had some nice games, but his short-term future doesn't look very bright with Manu Ginobili's projected return.




Ekpe Udoh, PF/C, Golden State Warriors (6.0 BLK%): Even with Kwame Brown out for an extended period, Udoh's locked in a value-killing time-share with Andris Biedrins. But with Biedrins forcing Golden State to play 4-on-5 on offense, Udoh should get an opportunity to pull down more consistent minutes as the season unfolds. All Udoh does at this point is block shots -- his rebounding numbers are shockingly low for a big man -- but he's already altering trajectories at an elite level.




Other Players to Watch: Chris Andersen, PF/C, Denver Nuggets; Chandler Parsons, SF, Houston Rockets; Jason Smith, PF, New Orleans Hornets; Brendan Haywood, C Dallas Mavericks; Randy Foye, PG/SG, Los Angeles Clippers

 

[HacheMan]

The Week's Top NBA Pickups

Houston, we have a (major) problem



Kevin McHale is getting all kinds of props for guiding the Rockets to a 16-11record and three straight wins, the last two coming back-to-back and on the road at Portland and Phoenix. In reality, this is all good, but in fantasy, he’s causing some major headaches due to his random rotations and his love of his bench.



Kevin Martin has been put into the doghouse, and played just 15 & 13 minutes in his last two games. I have no idea if or when Martin is going to return to form, but McHale has said he’s going to reward the guys who actually earn minutes, and don’t just show up for work. Apparently Kev-Mart falls into the “just showing up” group, along with Samuel Dalembert. Heck, even Luis Scola got just 23 minutes on Thursday, less than five guys who came off the bench. And the fact they’re winning isn’t helping our cause. Kyle Lowry, Scola, Goran Dragic, Chase Budinger, Courtney Lee, Jordan Hill and Patrick Patterson are McHale’s guys right now, while Martin, Dalembert, and to some extent Chandler Parsons are struggling. I guess you have to bench Martin and Dalembert until they get back in McHale’s good graces again, while rolling the dice on the bench brigade will be tricky. Good luck, if you own any of these guys. And as tempting as it might be to cut Martin, you just can’t do it. Dalembert’s another story though, and has been slumping for nearly two weeks. If you can drop him for Chris Kaman, it makes sense.



Milwaukee, we have a logjam



Carlos Delfino blew up for 25 points, nine boards, four steals and six 3-pointers on Wednesday, while Stephen Jackson and Mike Dunleavy also played more than 30 minutes and posted solid numbers. I have no idea how Skiles will be able to continue to play them all 30 minutes a night, and the fact that he’s trying is likely the reason for Brandon Jennings’ slump. I’m fine with using any of these four players in fantasy right now, but just know that someone is going to take a serious hit soon. We just don’t know who it will be. Let’s see what happens on Friday night at Cleveland, but right now Jennings is a must-start, Delfino should be ridden while he’s hot, and Dunleavy and Jackson could also be solid options in most leagues. Just know that at least one of them is going to start struggling, and Scott Skiles won’t hesitate to ride the hot hands, whichever bodies they happen to be attached to.



Point Guards



Jason Kidd Mavs – I am not a Kidd fan, and am not rushing out to pick him up, but he’s available in nearly 60 percent of all leagues and is due back any day. If you need threes, steals and assists, go for it. Just be prepared for him to rarely score more than five points in a game, as well as be a serious injury risk. He can still play, but there’s a reason (or several of them) that he’s probably available in your league.



Ramon Sessions Cavs – Kyrie Irving’s concussion will keep him out over the weekend and leave his status in some doubt for next week, but Sessions is clearly a short-term add. He went off for 24 points and 13 dimes on Wednesday, and is owned in less than 20 percent of fantasy leagues. And if he happens to get traded to the Lakers or Miami, look out.



Goran Dragic Rockets – Dragic initially looked like a bust for those of us who picked him up and put him in lineups for Thursday’s game, as Kyle Lowry was able to play through his elbow injury. But Kevin McHale’s rotation and lineup, as documented above, is a train wreck, and Dragic came through with 11 points, four boards, 11 assists, two steals and a three last night, and could continue to get plenty of run regardless of the health of Lowry. And yes, this is bad news for Lowry, in case you were wondering.



Greivis Vasquez Hornets – I will be the first to admit that I dropped Vasquez in several leagues after Wednesday’s dud, when Jarrett Jack returned and pulled the sheet from under Vasquez and the roll he was on. But it was one game and he didn’t play well, hitting just 2-of-7 shots for five points and four dimes in 20 minutes. But there’s still a possibility of a timeshare here, and the Hornets just didn’t look great with Jack running the show coming off a knee injury. I still think Jack is the guy to own here, but if you’ve got Vasquez, or want to pick him up, it might be a good idea to sit on him for a few more games and see how this plays out. Coach Monty Williams isn’t exactly running a stable rotation in New Orleans, so anything’s possible. Update: Late news on Friday broke that Jarrett Jack is out, meaning Vasquez will start. The run is clearly not over.



Jameer Nelson Magic – Nelson is owned in less than 40 percent of ESPN leagues, but has scored 15 & 12 points in his two games since returning from a concussion. He also had 12 dimes in one of those games, and zero in the other. Yes, he has struggled this season, but you know he’s going to be out there with Dwight Howard every night and could finally be ready to get it going.



The Rest



Devin Harris & Earl Watson Jazz – The point guard situation in Utah has been a mess all year, but both of these guys should be watched closely from night-to-night, and I have still not given up on Harris, despite his awful season.



Steve Blake Lakers – He’s back from his rib injury and played 32 minutes on Thursday. He struggled, but once he’s back up to speed, could be a sneaky addition in deeper leagues if the minutes stick - and they should.

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Shooting Guards



Randy Foye Clippers – Foye started on Wednesday and had 15 points, two assists, a steal and a 3-pointer in the loss. That’s a pretty good start though, and it looks like he could keep the job all season, especially after reading this nonsense from Mo Williams (great column). Remarkably, Foye is still only owned in 11 percent of ESPN leagues, while Mo’s available in zero leagues.



MarShon Brooks Nets – Brooks could play on Friday night after missing seven straight games with a fractured toe and Achilles problem. He’s only owned in 20 percent of leagues out there right now, and looks like a must-add player to me. He’s averaging 15 points, four boards, a 3-pointer and a steal, and should move right back into the starting lineup upon his return.



Iman Shumpert & Landry Fields Knicks – Fields is probably owned in your league, but Shumpert may not be. Both are spending time at shooting guard and small forward with the loss of Carmelo Anthony, who should be out at least another week. It’s just one game, but Fields had 16 points and eight boards in Wednesday’s win at Washington, while Shumpert had 17 points, four rebounds, three steals and a 3-pointer. Shumpert wasn’t great at point guard for the Knicks, but could be a much better fantasy option coming off the bench and playing off the ball at several positions.



J.R. Smith (and Wilson Chandler) – News is breaking on Friday afternoon that Chandler’s Chinese team eliminated Smith’s from the playoffs, meaning Smith could be here shortly after his season ends on Feb. 15. The Knicks, Lakers, Clippers, Thunder and Timberwolves have all been mentioned as possible destinations, but it’s hard to tell fact from fiction right now. But it sounds like Smith will be here a lot sooner than Chandler will be, as he’ll have to stick around for the playoffs. Just like every other year at this time, Smith will be a hot pickup, play inconsistently with some massive lines mixed in, end up in his coach’s doghouse, and then start the cycle all over again. If you’re desperate for a 3-point shooter, go ahead and stash him now. Chandler is expected to sign with the Nuggets as a restricted free agent, but it could get complicated with FIBA, his free agency status and the new CBA. Stay tuned.



Ben Gordon Pistons – Gordon quietly returned from a 10-game absence due to a shoulder injury and hit 6-of-7 shots for 14 points (no threes) on Wednesday. I don’t trust Gordon, but he was heating up just before going down and is worth a close eye in all leagues as he gets back into a flow. In the five games just before he went down, Gordon scored 14, 15, 18, 18 and 10 points, with eight threes and six steals to boot.



The Rest



Kyle Korver Bulls – Worth a look if you need threes for as long as Richard Hamilton is out.

Daniel Gibson Cavs – Started on Wednesday, but Anthony Parker on his way back.

Tony Allen Grizzlies – Dealing with hip/knee issues, missed Wednesday, but was playing well.

Jose Juan Barea Wolves – Coming on as Luke Ridnour starting to struggle. Watch closely.

Michael Redd Suns – Has scored in double figures in four straight, but I still don’t trust him.

Eric Gordon Hornets – Maybe a week away from starting real workouts? Who knows on return date?



Small Forwards



Hedo Turkoglu Magic –Turkoglu has been dropped by many owners during the horrendous slump he’s staggering through right now, but is still owned in eight out of 10 leagues. He’ll break out of the funk and go back to scoring, boarding, assisting and hitting threes, so just make sure he wasn’t dumped in your league.



Linas Kleiza (and Leandro Barbosa) Raptors - Jerryd Bayless is down after aggravating his constantly injured left ankle and could miss Friday’s game. And since it’s still not fully healed, it could be a problem all season. In addition to Jose Calderon getting a boost, Kleiza and Barbosa will see extra touches and minutes. Kleiza had 30 points and a fat line on Monday and backed it up with 12 points and eight boards on Wednesday. He’s heating up and worth a look in all leagues. Barbosa is coming off a bout with the flu and has lost some of his mojo, but is worth keeping an eye on if Bayless is going to miss time.



Steve Novak Knicks – Like Jeremy Lin (and so unlike him), Novak has exploded on the scene for the Knicks, scoring 19 points in two straight games, shooting lights out, and canning 10-of-17 3-pointers in them. Carmelo Anthony is likely going to miss another week and if you’re team is struggling from downtown, Novak could be the answer. He’s still available in almost all leagues, mainly because there’s no way he’ll continue to shoot it this well, and the fact that he is Steve Novak, but taking a flier on him makes sense in the right situation.



Reggie Williams & Corey Maggette Bobcats – Maggette is expected to get some minutes on Friday as he works his way back from a hamstring injury, which could be a real buzzkill for the new owners of Williams. Williams has scored 21 in two straight starts, averaging 5.0 boards, 5.5 assists and 2.0 3-pointers in them. I don’t expect Maggette to stay healthy for long, and am not rushing to pick him up. I suspect he’ll come off the bench, but he’s at least worth keeping an eye on once he’s back. And if you own Williams, or want to pick him up, it still makes sense for as long as Gerald Henderson is out (which is at least a couple more weeks).



Grant Hill Suns – I don’t really trust Hill and the fact his game schedule is nuts for the next 10 days could mean he’ll miss a couple. The Suns play on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, Sunday, Monday and Wednesday starting this Monday, which means Hill has a five-game week. He’s averaging 12 points, five boards, 4.5 assists and a steal over his last two games, but was struggling before that with a sore knee. If he can somehow make it through those five games in the upcoming week he could make for a nice add in deeper leagues.

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Power Forwards



Channing Frye Suns – Frye blew up on Thursday for 21 points, 10 boards, two steals, two blocks, a monster dunk and four 3-pointers, and is averaging 13 points, six boards, 1.6 blocks and 1.8 3-pointers over his last five. He’s owned in just 64 percent of ESPN leagues and with five games in the upcoming week, should be the hottest pickup in fantasy leagues right now. Go get him, as the slump appears to be over.



Jonas Jerebko Pistons – I really have a feeling that Jerebko could be about ready to replace Jason Maxiell as the Pistons’ starting power forward, but even if it doesn’t happen, he’s hot, averaging 12.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks and 0.6 threes over his last five games. He’s hit double figures in four of his last five games and is finally over his Achilles injury. The Pistons have four games next week and Jerebko should be a solid add if you need a PF.



Trevor Booker Wizards – Booker is starting over Jan Vesely while Andray Blatche is out with a calf injury, and is playing well. He’s averaging 12 points, six boards and nearly two blocks over his last five games and the Wizards go four times next week. If you’re scared of Jerebko, picking up Booker looks like a safe bet.



Jason Thompson Kings – Thompson came into the week hot with three straight double-doubles, then completely disappeared for a couple games before bouncing back Thursday night with 11 points and 10 boards in 30 minutes. I like him better than Chuck Hayes and if he double-doubles again on Saturday, I think he looks like a decent four-game option next week.



Kenneth Faried Nuggets – Faried is a deep-league special after starting for the Nuggets on Thursday, when he had eight points and 10 rebounds in 23 minutes. However, he didn’t even play in his previous game, and whether he remains a starter is questionable. But if your waiver wire is bare and you need a burly rebounder, Faried is worth a look.



The Rest



Patrick Patterson Rockets – Patterson is getting a lot of minutes and averaging 11 points, six boards and a block over his last five games. McHale likes him better than Samuel Dalembert right now.



Zach Randolph Grizzlies – Randolph is getting closer, but we still don’t know when he’s due to play. If you have room to stash him, now is probably the right time to grab him.



Ersan Ilyasova Bucks – Missed his last game with back spasms, but is averaging 10 points, 11 boards and nearly a block over his last four. He had 17 points, 12 boards, two blocks and a 3-pointer in his last game, and could be a sneaky add if he’s healthy. And it sounds like there’s a decent chance he’ll play against the Cavs on Friday night.



Gustavo Ayon Hornets – Ayon is starting for the banged up Hornets, averaging five points, five boards, a steal and a block over his last five games, making him a possible deep-league special.



Centers



Nikola Pekovic Wolves – Pekovic was last week’s pickup of the week and responded by simply going off for the Wolves. He’s averaging 17 points, 10 boards, a steal and 0.6 blocks over his last five and appears to have locked down the starting job over Darko. He should be owned in all leagues, but is still available in more than 20 percent of fantasy leagues.



Chris Kaman Hornets – Kaman has been pulled off the trading block and is playing pretty well, averaging 13.5 points, 10.5 boards and 2.5 blocks in his two games since returning from exile. If you need a big man, you could certainly do worse, and he’s still available in more than 30 percent of fantasy leagues.



Brook Lopez Nets – Lopez took part in part of the Nets shootaround on Friday but there’s still no target date on his return. He’s owned in just over 50 percent of fantasy leagues and now feels like the right time to move on him, if you’ve got an open roster or bench spot.



Ekpe Udoh Warriors – Udoh isn’t scoring, but is getting minutes for the Warriors and has 14 blocks in his last five games. If you’re hurting for blocks, he might be the best option out there.



Bismack Biyombo Bobcats – Biyombo is a bit of an inconsistent mess for the Bobcats. But he’s been starting and had 11 points, 12 boards, a steal and two blocks on Saturday, but hasn’t done much of anything in his other four games of his last five. If you need blocks, or are looking for a player who can break out a bit in the second half, he’s worth a look. I wouldn’t recommend adding him in points leagues though, as he won’t score enough to have value.<!--RW-->



Jeremy Lin Fever – Catch It



As if it hasn’t already, the Jeremy Lin hysteria is about to hit a fever pitch on Friday night when Lin’s Knicks host Kobe Bryant and the Lakers at the Garden. That place is going to be rocking and my buddy and fantasy competitor David Chang, celebrity chef and owner of Momofuku restaurants, will be in attendance. Perhaps no one is as big a Lin fan as Chang, but I somehow got Lin off the wire before he could get to him. Chang was quoted in the New York Times on Thursday, saying that Lin’s emergence has been “the most important event for Asian-Americans in sports history,” and he agreed to expand on those thoughts for me to print here, since Lin is not only the talk of New York, but the NBA right now. We play in both a fantasy hoops and baseball league run by Pavement’s Stephen Malkmus, and are in negotiations on a mythical deal that would send Jason Heyward to me in exchange for Lin in the first ever cross-sport fantasy trade.



Here we go.



"I'm about to freaking cry watching this guy," is what my buddy said about Jeremy Lin as we watched the Knicks take out the Bullets (Wizards) on Wednesday. I'm prone to hyperbole, but I believe Lin is as close to Fernandomania as we will ever get for Asian-Americans. Strip away race and that he bleeds crimson...what matters is that he is a shining example of what makes sports wonderful. Mike D'Antoni likened Lin to Secretariat, but I’m thinking he’s more Seabiscuit - the scrappy, resilient underdog that makes stuff happen, no excuses, and is accountable for his actions.



Let’s take a look at the most notable Asian-American athletes that have come along before Lin. I'm sure I'm missing some, but here’s my list. NFL players Haruki Nakamura, Kailee Wong, Scott Fujita and Patrick Chung don't count because they broke my heart. Manny Pacquiao may be the best pound-for-pound, but is also not on my list. Eugene Chung, a first-round draft pick by the Pats, was a 6'6” 330-pound monster, but also a bust. Another Hokie bust was Ed Wang.

In what I like to call the genetic glandular anomalies, I always wondered why every Asian NBA player had to be seven-feet tall? Wang Zhizhi is probably my favorite giant. Yao Ming was bred to be an NBA superstar, but at 7'6”, even Shawn Bradley had a longer career. Yao was awesome, but how could he inspire any normal-sized kid to play like him? I had massive hopes for Yi Jianlian, especially since he was last seen playing for the Bullets (Wizards). He is also a seven-foot giant, but has speed, quickness and raw talent – like the Tony Mandarich of the NBA. And then there’s Seung-Jin Ha - A Yonsei University product that played like two games in the NBA. Sun Yue was the shortest of the group and was like 6'5” when he was just 18. I thought he was going to be a nasty combo-guard for the Lakers, but no bueno.



While there were plenty of disappointments, there have been some success stories as well. There’s tennis phenom Michael Chang, who was amazing in the Finals of the French Open, but had just one Grand Slam title, which he won when he was just 17. I remember watching that match early in the morning in 1989 when I was a kid and seeing my parents whooping it up, and it made me strangely curious as to what was going on. But he wasn't McEnroe in the end, and well, I'm just biased. Chang wasn't going to be the Fernando Venezuela of tennis.

Back to the NFL, Dat Nguyen actually exceeded expectations for the Cowboys. I hate Dallas, but had to root for them when Nguyen played. Surprisingly, the NHL has also incubated some good hockey players. Richard Park had a nice run, and I’d watch games with my dad when he’s playing. Even back when Jim Paek was like a fourth-line defenseman for the Penguins, we would watch them beat the Caps in the playoffs.

Anyway, I've always maintained that one day it was going to happen in the NBA, the sport where I feel the best athletes in the world play. I just never dreamed it was going to be Jeremy Lin who would turn real life into fantasy basketball. I thought Golden State signed him as a marketing gimmick. And when Doc signed him off waivers in our league, I was crushed. But that's why Doc is God when it comes to the NBA. It's only been three games, but Lin has already changed the world.

 

[HacheMan]

With Lin gone, who's left to pick up?

By Josh Whitling
Special to ESPN.com

I'm going to write about Jeremy Lin -- not to suggest that you should add him, but because that opportunity has already come and gone. People gauge a car's power by how quickly it can go from zero to 60, and in fantasy hoops, we should gauge a player's stock by how quickly he goes from zero to 95 percent owned. It took Lin about four days.




I know some feel like coverage of Lin is reaching Tebow-esque inundation levels, but he illustrates a point I regularly harp on in this column: If you think a player is worth adding, don't wait until he has just one more impressive outing, because by then it's often too late.




When putting this column together each week, I typically choose a group of players early in the week and monitor them throughout. I deliberately select too many players to include in the article, because I have to winnow down the list based on how they perform and their ownership percentage. If a player is owned in more than about one-third of leagues, I don't include them in this column. I don't think I've ever seen a player go from owned in zero leagues to owned in essentially all leagues as quickly as Lin. It goes to show that when you have an inkling that a player's worth a roster spot, you should go for it -- or else he could be putting up 23 points and 10 assists for somebody else.

Here are some widely available players whose performance has recently improved. If your team needs what they can provide, act now, before the window has closed.

Jason Thompson, PF, Sacramento Kings (19.7 percent owned): He posted a couple of clunkers earlier this week after putting up three consecutive double-doubles then bounced back Thursday with 10 points and 10 boards in 28 minutes. In 12 starts this season, Thompson is averaging 10 points, 8.1 rebounds, 0.6 blocks and 0.5 steals per game while shooting 53.3 percent from the floor. His usage has fallen off since he averaged 12.5 points and 8.5 rebounds for the season in 2009-10, but now that he's starting again, Thompson is a worthy add due to his ability to score efficiently (career .494 field goal percentage) and rebound.




Ersan Ilyasova, SF/PF, Milwaukee Bucks (16.3 percent owned): Drew Gooden is the one who's gone gangbusters since Andrew Bogut went down, but Ilyasova has also improved and become the Bucks' best rebounder. His 16.4 rebounds per 48 minutes ranks seventh in the league and tops among small forward-eligible players. During the past 15 days, Ilyasova is averaging nearly a double-double, with 9.4 points, 9.9 rebounds and 1 block per game. He also provides minor contributions in 3-pointers, steals and blocks, with averages of 0.5, 0.6 and 0.6 per game for the season, respectively. He sat out Wednesday's game with back spasms, but when he returns, he's the team's primary rebounder and is worth adding if you need boards.




Chase Budinger, SF, Houston Rockets (14.8 percent owned): He's been on and off rosters all season and entered the season with high expectations after averaging 14.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.5 3s and 0.7 steals in 24 games after the All-Star break last season. He's picked it up as of late, scoring at least 12 points in seven of his past nine contests, capitalizing on Kevin Martin's struggles. Martin has scored in single digits in four consecutive games, but despite his statistical woes, the Rockets have won four of their past five games, so Kevin McHale should continue riding his bench as long as it's working. Budinger's game is bereft of defensive stats, but he can score and drain 3s, so if that's what your fantasy team needs, ride him while he's hot.

Reggie Williams, SG/SF, Charlotte Bobcats (14.4 percent owned): Williams returned from offseason knee surgery at an ideal time, as he's stepped into a starting role and become a primary offensive option for the Bobcats with Gerald Henderson sidelined. He flashed his offensive skills in 24 games as a rookie for the Warriors in 2009-10, averaging 15.2 points and 1.4 3s per game. His role was diminished last season, but in nine starts he averaged 17.7 points and 2.4 3s per game. He's averaged 21 points, 5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 2 3s in his past three games and should average more than 15 points and two 3s while Henderson is out, maintaining 3-point value all season.




Alonzo Gee, SG/SF, Cleveland Cavaliers (13.8 percent owned): His seven-point performance Wednesday snapped a streak of five consecutive double-digit scoring efforts, as Gee is shining as the primary offensive option off the bench for the Cavs. During the past 15 days, he's averaging 11.8 points and 0.9 3s per game and should be good for similar points and 3s going forward, but his steals are his most valuable category. He's averaging 1.8 swipes in the same span and 1.5 per game on the season in just 27 minutes per game. His 2.6 steals per 48 minutes ranks 14th in the league, and as long as he's getting minutes, he's worth owning in all formats simply due to his steals. Consider the points and 3s gravy.




Randy Foye, PG/SG, Los Angeles Clippers (11.8 percent owned): Foye benefits most from Chauncey Billups' season-ending injury, and he's proven in the past that he's capable of being a fine fantasy contributor when given the opportunity. Last February, he averaged 36.8 minutes per game due to injuries on the Clippers' roster and put up 17.1 points, 4.1 assists, 2.2 3s and 1.2 steals per game. He won't put up those type of numbers sharing the backcourt with Chris Paul, but his ability to score, drain 3s and get steals is legit. He averaged 16.3 points per game in 2008-09 starting in Minnesota and for his career has averaged 1.2 3s per game. He'll also notch around three assists per game and is worth adding in all formats due to his increased opportunity.

Michael Redd, SG, Phoenix Suns (1.9 percent owned): He started slow, but Redd has become an offensive option off the bench for the Suns, averaging 13.0 points and 1.8 3s in his past four games. The former 26.7 point-per-game scorer, who has averaged more than two 3s per game in four separate seasons, never relied on elite athleticism to do his damage, so he should continue to be able to find ways to score despite the toll injuries have taken on his body. He's a viable deep-league option if you need points and 3s, just don't expect much else.

Wilson Chandler, SG/SF, Zhejiang Lions (1.8 percent owned)/J.R. Smith, SG/SF, Zhejiang Golden Bulls (1.7 percent owned): Smith is averaging 35.2 points, 7.3 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 2.6 steals per game in China, while Chandler is putting up 25.6 points, 11.2 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 0.8 blocks. They obviously won't carry those stats back to America, as the ease with which players can put up numbers there is illustrated by the fact that NBA castoffs such as Lester Hudson and Marcus Williams are averaging more than 30 points per game. Chandler reportedly wants to rejoin the Nuggets, and Smith is an unrestricted free agent who will be coveted by a bevy of teams. Both of their Chinese teams might make the playoffs, and if they do, the wait for these players will stretch to mid-to-late March. Because of his free agency and playing style, Smith's return is generating more buzz, but Chandler will likely have the most fantasy impact, as he finished 57th on last season's Player Rater with positive contributions in all categories but field goal percentage. Both players are worth owning if you have an available bench spot, but if you wait for them to return, it will be too late.

Steve Novak, PF, New York Knicks (0.9 percent owned): His minutes will diminish drastically once Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony are back in the Knicks' lineup, but 3s from the power forward spot are hard to find, and Novak shot well enough when given increased chances to maintain a role as sharpshooter off the bench even when STAT and Melo are back. He's a consideration only if you need to make up ground in 3s in a deep league, but by averaging 1.6 3s in 10.9 minutes per game, Novak has demonstrated the ability to be a one-category wonder off the bench.

Kenneth Faried, PF, Denver Nuggets (0.4 percent owned): Faried, who averaged 14.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game last season at Morehead State, has played well when given the opportunity this season. He started Thursday, with Timofey Mozgov and Danilo Gallinari both out of the lineup, and responded with 10 boards in 23 minutes. His per-minute stats have been fantastic (20.8 rebounds, 4.6 blocks per 48 minutes); all he needs to do is secure consistent PT to have value. With the injuries to the Nuggets' frontcourt, he's getting more chances. He'll be erratic, but the talent is there.

 

[HacheMan]

Dose: Down Goes Varejao

Last week was one of the craziest, most exciting NBA weeks I’ve ever experienced. I’m not sure what this week holds in store, but here is what we do know in the wee hours of Monday morning.



Atlanta 3 games: Jeff Teague is slumping since the return of Kirk Hinrich, which isn’t fun. Especially since Hinrich hasn’t done enough to be owned in most leagues. He’s just hurting Teague. I still think Teague’s value will swing back up, so I’d rather see owners bench him than cut him, unless we’re talking about a 10-team league, or smaller. And how fun is Josh Smith right now? The All-Start snub didn’t hurt, either.



Boston 3: Brandon Bass is out for a couple weeks and Jermaine O’Neal is hurting again (shocker), which forces both Chris Wilcox and JaJuan Johnson into action. Wilcox looks like the better option, but keep in mind he’s not a shot blocker. Kevin Garnett also gets a boost, while Rajon Rondo gets props for his 32-10-15 trip-dub on Sunday.



Charlotte 4: Corey Maggette replaced Tyrus Thomas in the starting lineup, meaning another apparent Fail for Thomas in fantasy. Reggie Williams also disappeared and the Bobcats are just terrible. Maggette’s worth a flier until he gets hurt again, and Kemba Walker’s nice to own, but the rest of this team, Bismack Biyombo included, is just tough to own. D.J. Augustin (toe) is targeting Wednesday, but is not guaranteed for that one, and Gerald Henderson remains out for at least another week or two with his hamstring injury.



Chicago 3: Luol Deng was 3-of-12 on Sunday with a big wrap on his wrist, and could struggle with it the rest of the way, but at least he’s playing. Derrick Rose, on the other hand, was out again on Sunday and will see a specialist on Monday for his sore back. Not great news, and we’ll have to hope for more information prior to lineup deadlines tonight. I’d bench him in weekly leagues for now, if you have another decent option. Richard Hamilton could be out through the All-Star break with his groin injury.



Cleveland 3: Anderson Varejao suffered a fractured wrist and is out indefinitely, and will be re-examined in a week. If you can hang on until the exam happens, do so. It's a real shame, as he was having an All-Star type of season. Semih Erden will likely start in his place, while Tristan Thompson will also see a boost. Neither one of them are guaranteed to be of huge help to fantasy owners, while Alonzo Gee is playing well (17 points Saturday) and could end up being a better pickup than either of them. Kyrie Irving is hoping to return on Wednesday from a concussion, which will ruin Ramon Sessions, who owners either need to drop or pray he gets traded to the Heat or Lakers. Daniel Gibson has been starting at shooting guard, but it remains to be seen if he can hold Anthony Parker off once he returns from a back injury, but no one is sure when that will happen.



Dallas 4: Jason Kidd is back from a calf injury and is probably worth grabbing if he was dumped in your league, while Dirk Nowitzki is finally playing like Dirk Nowitzki again.



Denver 4: Nene is set to miss a few games with a strained left calf, so bench him for now. Rudy Fernandez, Corey Brewer and Kenneth Faried are all worth a look in many leagues right now, while Arron Afflalo has finally turned it around over his last two games. Danilo Gallinari is out for another month with his sprained ankle, so keep him benched, or drop him if you must.



Detroit 4: Brandon Knight is struggling with consistency, so weigh options carefully before starting him. Rodney Stuckey is finally healthy and playing well enough to be used in most leagues, while Jason Maxiell is still starting over Jonas Jerebko. I still think Jerebko is a better play in all leagues, but it would be nice if he were starting. Ben Gordon is back and had 14 points on Friday, but hit 2-of-9 shots on Sunday, when the Pistons looked terrible against the Wizards. At least Greg Monroe is reliable.



Golden State 4: Klay Thompson and Brandon Rush are worth keeping an eye on in most leagues, but Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry, David Lee and Dorell Wright are the guys you want in your lineups, despite Wright’s disappearance on Sunday. Ekpe Udoh is worth a look if you’re desperate for blocks, but simply won’t score.



Houston 4: Kevin Martin finally bounced out of the doghouse and had 28 points on Sunday, while Samuel Dalembert had five points, seven boards and three blocks in 21 minutes. Both can be put back into starting lineups, but come with no guarantees. Goran Dragic fell back to earth, along with Chase Budinger, and it looks like Dragic’s only hope is an injury to Kyle Lowry on most nights.



Indiana 4: Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert, Paul George, Darren Collison and David West remain solid starts for the Pacers, although only Granger and Hibbert have been fully reliable nightly.



Clippers 4: Mo Williams has been quiet since the loss of Chauncey Billups and played Saturday despite attending a funeral prior to the game. He should start playing better than he has. Randy Foye is coming through for his new owners as a starter, while DeAndre Jordan bounced back on Saturday. Foye, Jordan, Chris Paul, Caron Butler and Blake Griffin are all must-starts with four games this week. J.R. Smith will likely sign with someone this week now that his China run is over, and the Clippers would be a nice place for him to land, although it would obviously hurt Foye.



Lakers 3: Kobe Bryant hit a game-winner on Sunday, while Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum remain the other two must-starts for L.A., despite the three-game week. Keep an eye on Steve Blake, who is going to rack up solid minutes as Derek Fisher continues to be Derek Fisher. And after watching Ron Artest continue to struggle, it looks like there’s no hope of him being relevant in fantasy this season. Do you think Kobe knows who Jeremy Lin is now? Gilbert Arenas worked out for the Lakers on Sunday, but I’m not convinced he’s going to suddenly return to form. However, given the Lakers’ limited options at point guard, Arenas will probably be worth a pickup if he signs.



Memphis 4: Tony Allen is back from hip/knee issues and played well Sunday, while O.J. Mayo is in a shooting slump, hitting 9-of-37 in his last four games. Both players are worth a look with four games, as is Marreese Speights (19 & 9 Friday, 7 & 11 Sunday), while Rudy Gay, Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are must-starts. Zach Randolph is getting closer, but still may not play until after the All-Star break.



Miami 4: Mario Chalmers has been struggling through a hand injury, but played better on Sunday, when he had 15 points and two 3-pointers. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh should all have big weeks with four games, but Chalmers is the only other player I’d consider starting in weekly leagues.<!--RW-->



Milwaukee 4: Brandon Jennings is mired in a bad slump, shooting just 34 percent in February. Jennings and Drew Gooden are must-stars, and Ersan Ilyasova looks like a nice four-game option, while Stephen Jackson, Mike Dunleavy and Carlos Delfino are all proverbial rolls of the dice this week.



Minnesota 4: Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic and Michael Beasley all look like strong plays with four games, while Luke Ridnour has been hurt by the emergence of Jose Juan Barea. Start both of them at your own risk this week.



New Jersey 4: MarShon Brooks has struggled in his two games since returning from a toe injury, but should bounce back. Anthony Morrow has also been quiet, but those two, along with Deron Williams and Kris Humphries look like solid options this week. Jordan Farmar could continue to play well off the bench, but is a little shaky with Brooks and Morrow healthy, while Brook Lopez is hoping to practice on Monday. If it happens, he could be back at some point this week.



New Orleans 3: Jarrett Jack missed Friday’s game with a sore knee allowing Greivis Vasquez to make another start. It sounds like Jack is likely to miss the entire week, making Vasquez a solid fantasy option, despite just three games. Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor are the only other sure bets for the Hornets. Gustavo Ayon is worth a deep-league look, but is unreliable. Chris Kaman was out on Saturday with an ankle injury, leaving his status for the week up in the air as well. This team is a mess.



New York 4: The Knicks have won five straight thanks to the heroics of Jeremy Lin, who should be in all starting lineups right now. It’s hard to say what will happen when Carmelo Anthony (longshot for Tuesday, risky weekly start) is back, but the assists and minutes should stay strong for Lin, even if the scoring dips some. Amare Stoudemire is due back Tuesday against Toronto, while Iman Shumpert, Landry Fields, Steve Novak are all worth a look in most leagues. Jared Jeffries played pretty well in the absence of Amare, but that run should be coming to an end. As of now, I’m planning to bench Melo this week, but we’ll see if Monday brings any news.



Oklahoma City 4: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Serge Ibaka are good to go with four games, while Kendrick Perkins double-doubled on Friday. Perkins is worth a deep-league look, but has struggled most of the season. Thabo Sefolosha remains iffy with his foot injury, and Daequan Cook has been a solid source of threes in his absence (but was just 1-of-9 on Friday).



Orlando 4: Hedo Turkoglu finally woke up on Saturday with 19 points and a full stat line, and should be in lineups despite his recent struggles. Jason Richardson is hot and is a must-start, along with Dwight Howard and Ryan Anderson. Jameer Nelson can be used in a pinch if you’re thin at point guard, and has actually played better in his four games since returning from a concussion.



Philadelphia 4: Andre Iguodala, Jrue Holiday, Elton Brand, Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams are all worth rolling out with four games, while Evan Turner has quieted down lately, failing to hit double figures in six of his last seven games. As for Spencer Hawes, it sounds like he’ll miss another week with his Achilles injury, but Nikola Vucevic and Lavoy Allen aren’t exactly tearing it up in his absence. Keep Hawes benched and keep an eye on the other two going forward. I wouldn’t put any of them into my lineup right now.



Phoenix 5: Steve Nash, Marcin Gortat, Jared Dudley and Channing Frye all look like must-starts, while guys like Markieff Morris and Michael Redd are worth a look in deeper leagues. Morris had 18 points and three blocks on Saturday, but I don’t trust him enough to put him into regular weekly lineups.



Portland 4: Marcus Camby expects to play on Tuesday despite a bruised right ankle, but he has calmed down as of late. Nate McMillan is talking about a lineup change, but it’s not clear what he can do differently that would be effective. With four games, Raymond Felton, LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Gerald Wallace, Nicolas Batum, Jamal Crawford and Camby all look like solid options in most leagues. If Camby does miss time, look for Batum to play well in his absence. And while McMillan appears to want to bench Felton, it’s hard to imagine him doing so at this point.



Sacramento 4: Tyreke Evans struggled on Saturday with 1-of-9 shooting, but with four games, Evans, DeMarcus Cousins and Marcus Thornton are all must-starts. Jason Thompson, Chuck Hayes, J.J. Hickson, Jimmer Fredette and Isaiah Thomas are all worth a look, but none are trustworthy at this point. I’m inclined to say Thompson is the safest of the bunch, but he had just two points and six boards in 19 minutes on Saturday.



San Antonio 3: With just three games Tony Parker looks like the only must-start here, although Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili (17 minutes in Saturday’s return) are also solid starting options in fantasy. Gary Neal, Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair are options, but I wouldn’t recommend any of them with just three games. I had to pick up Splitter in a league where I lost Varejao, and while he’s been playing well, I don’t trust Pop to play him consistent minutes. But he has hit double digits in scoring in four of his last five, with some boards and a few blocks.



Toronto 3: Jose Calderon is on fire in the absence of Jerryd Bayless (ankle) and had a career-high 30 on Sunday. Go ahead and start him with three games, unless you’re stacked at point guard. James Johnson, Linas Kleiza, DeMar DeRozan, Amir Johnson, Ed Davis and maybe Aaron Gray are all worth a look, but also shaky with three games. DeRozan, Kleiza and Johnson are the most interesting options, and Kleiza has hit double figures in five of his last six, knocking down 13 threes over that stretch.



Utah 4: Despite some chatter about Tyrone Corbin limiting minutes with some back-to-backs coming up, Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap and suddenly Gordon Hayward are must-starts this week. Devin Harris had 11 & 7 on Friday, but just 9 & 3 on Sunday, as usual. Raja Bell, Josh Howard and C.J. Miles are all worth a look as well, but can’t be trusted. If Corbin does limit Jefferson’s minutes this week, Derrick Favors could make some noise.



Washington 3: John Wall had a career-high 15 dimes on Sunday, Nick Young stayed hot and JaVale McGee has been great in back-to-back games after slumping. All three are worth playing despite the 3-game week. Rashard Lewis returned from a knee injury Sunday and had 10 points in just 12 minutes, and Jan Vesely had 10 points, eight boards and three blocks against the Pistons. He’s always worth a close eye, but isn’t trustworthy, especially with Trevor Booker playing well. Booker had nine points, seven boards and a couple blocks on Sunday, and is another guy worth using if you don’t have a better four-game option. Jordan Crawford is now 6-of-34 in his past three games, so I’d bench him for now, while I also don’t trust Lewis or Vesely enough to start them right now.

 

[HacheMan]

Carry On Hayward Son

I’ve never quite understood why people sometimes say they can “smell a breakout coming” from a certain player. It’s a phrase that sounds good, but really makes no sense when you think about it literally. After all, can we really smell impending statistical improvement, and if so, what does it smell like? Is it a pleasant scent, like freshly-baked baguette, sautéed garlic or a pan-seared ribeye? Or is it more putrid, like the smell of your basketball shoes and socks when you neglect to take them out of the gym bag for two days?

Whatever the case – and regardless of how silly the phrase may be – I have decided to use it right now, and I’m using it to tell you that I smell a breakout coming for Gordon Hayward.

In his last nine games, the 21-year-old has averaged 14.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.8 bpg, 0.8 3s (and 0.9 turnovers) on 50.5 percent from the field and 80.5 percent from the line. And in his last four games, Hayward has been even better: 15.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.3 spg, 1.0 bpg and 0.5 3s on 58.5 percent from the field and 78.6 percent from the line.

Those aren’t explosive numbers – and I suppose this would be more of a quiet, steady breakout than a truly monstrous one – but add it all up and you have a player capable of averaging 15-plus points and 4-plus assists with great percentages and something close to the coveted 1-1-1 (one 3, one steal and one block per game). Furthermore, Hayward has the potential to continue improving as the season goes on – he averaged just 8.0 ppg on 38.2 percent shooting with no 20-point efforts in his first 17 games, but has three 20-plus point outbursts (and the aforementioned 14.9 ppg scoring average) in his last nine games.

In sum, Hayward is emitting an odor. And I mean that in a positive way.

In other items on the Stew’s agenda this week…

Let’s take a moment (and by a moment, I mean several moments) to discuss Jeremy Lin. First, a quick anecdote: On Friday night I boarded a bus, at which point the driver immediately asked the score of the Knicks game. I informed him that the Knicks were up eight in the first half and that Lin had 14 points. His response, stated in complete seriousness: “Only 14?”

I relay this anecdote as a reminder of just how wild the Lin hype has become. Granted, he has earned it by averaging 26.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 8.0 apg and 2.0 spg in his last five games. And even though the league will make adjustments to make Lin’s life more difficult, there’s no doubt that he can legitimately play.

With that said, I submit to the committee that with Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire out, we’ve seen an absolute perfect storm of circumstances for Lin to make a big statistical impact. It’s the very same storm that has allowed Steve Novak to get his most extended run since 2009, a stretch that has seen the end-of-the-bench sharpshooter average 15.5 ppg and 4.0 3s in his last four games.

Quite simply, what we’re seeing with the Knicks right now is not their normal layout, and the flow of this offense is going to change drastically when Anthony and Stoudemire return. Say what you will about the possibility of Melo suddenly being willing to move the ball more, but I’m of the belief that a guy who has been a high-volume iso scorer throughout his career is not going to change his style that dramatically his ninth year in the league. And Lin, who has averaged 19.4 FG attempts per game in his last five, will take a huge hit in that department once Melo (18.8 FG attempts per game) and Amare (15.6) return.

The bottom line: As enjoyable as this whole run has been (and as fun as it will hopefully continue to be), Lin’s value in fantasy leagues can’t possibly get any higher. He won’t have as many opportunities to drive and shoot once Melo and Amare are back, and I’m not buying the argument that his assists will get a big boost playing alongside them. After all, he’s already averaging an impressive 8.0 apg during this run. Can we really expect him to average more than that when the offense is inevitably going to get more stagnant?

If I had to guess, I’d put Lin closer to 13 ppg and 7-8 apg once the team's top two scorers are back. And I say this not to be a buzzkill, but to advise testing the trade value of a player whose circumstances really can’t get any better than they are right now. To be clear, I’m not saying that he’s going to self-destruct or that you have to unload him immediately, but if you evaluate the situation without getting caught up in the excitement, it’s obvious that Lin’s numbers are due to take a significant hit.

Follow me on Twitter: @MattStroup

In other news, here comes Jamal Crawford. He began the year consistently playing limited minutes as he got incorporated into Portland’s schemes (an average of 25 minutes per game in his first 21 games), but already has four games over 30 minutes this month, two games over 40 minutes and an average of 32 minutes thus far in February. Not shockingly, numbers have followed: Crawford is averaging 19.6 ppg, 4.7 apg, 1.1 spg and 2.0 3s (43.6 percent from the field, 93.1 from the line) through his first seven games this month. Granted, Portland is just 3-4 during that run, so hopefully Nate McMillan won’t rethink his decision to unleash Crawford, but I’m optimistic that he can keep it going (with some inevitable rough stretches that are part of the life of a streaky shooter).

Meanwhile, I’m worried about Jarrett Jack’s knee. File this under pure speculation/I’m not a doctor/I have no access to the Hornets’ medical records, but this situation has some spooky similarities to the knee trouble that has held Eric Gordon out of all but two games this year. In both instances, the injury initially sounded pretty mild, and each player returned after missing a few games, but then had to shut it down again after that one-game return. It’s still too early to call this a Gordon situation given that Jack has only missed four games total with his injury, but I’m worried that the 4-23 Hornets just don’t have much incentive to rush him back. This falls under the category of “I hope I’m wrong” – and fortunately for Jack’s fantasy owners, I am sometimes – but I could see this turning into a multi-week absence.

With the injury to Anderson Varejao, Tristan Thompson has surged toward the top of my watch list. We should obviously expect some inconsistency from the 20-year-old – and beware that he’s a wretched free throw shooter (42.6 percent) – but the increase in playing time could yield some intriguing results. In the four games in which he has played 20-plus minutes this season, Thompson has posted 11.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 0.8 spg and 1.8 bpg. Don’t hesitate to add the No. 4 overall pick if you’re in need of boards and blocks.

With Danilo Gallinari (ankle) expected to miss another month, we should all take note of Corey Brewer. Brewer recently missed three games while on personal leave, but got his first start of the year on Saturday, posting 19 points, five rebounds, two steals and a three in a season-high 34 minutes. So far this season he has played 30-plus minutes on three occasions, averaging 18.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.3 spg, 0.7 bpg and 1.3 3s in those games. I’m not convinced that he’ll be a consistent scorer – and he’s not guaranteed big minutes every night – but Brewer has a chance to make a notable impact with Gallinari out.

 

[HacheMan]

Weekly Dish: Where to rank Lin

By Brian McKitish
Special to ESPN.com

After one of the more exciting stretches of basketball in recent memory, I finally get to answer the question I've been asked repeatedly all week: "Where are you going to rank Jeremy Lin?"





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Averaging 26.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 2.0 steals and 0.6 3-pointers while shooting 51.5 percent from the floor and 73.8 percent from the line in his past five games, Lin has been a top-10 fantasy performer the past week. Is Lin for real, or will he come crashing down to earth once Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire return?





The Top 130

Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2011-12 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses. 1. LeBron James, SF, MIA (1)
2. Kevin Durant, SF, OKC (2)
3. Chris Paul, PG, LAC (3)
4. Kevin Love, PF, MIN (4)
5. Dwyane Wade, SG, MIA (5)
6. Russell Westbrook, PG, OKC (7)
7. Dwight Howard, C, ORL (8)
8. Derrick Rose, PG, CHI (6)
9. Kobe Bryant, SG, LAL (9)
10. Pau Gasol, PF/C, LAL (10)
11. Deron Williams, PG, NJ (11)
12. Josh Smith, PF/SF, ATL (12)
13. Stephen Curry, PG/SG, GS (13)
14. Al Jefferson, C/PF, UTAH (14)
15. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, POR (15)
16. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, DAL (17)
17. Monta Ellis, PG/SG, GS (16)
18. Kyle Lowry, PG, HOU (18)
19. Andrew Bynum, C, LAL (20)
20. Blake Griffin, PF, LAC (23)
21. Rudy Gay, SF, MEM (21)
22. Marc Gasol, C, MEM (22)
23. Carmelo Anthony, SF, NY (19)
24. Ty Lawson, PG, DEN (25)
25. Amare Stoudemire, C/PF, NY (27)
26. Paul Millsap, PF, UTAH (26)
27. Steve Nash, PG, PHO (29)
28. Ricky Rubio, PG, MIN (28)
29. Paul Pierce, SF/SG, BOS (30)
30. DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, SAC (38)
31. John Wall, PG, WSH (32)
32. Marcin Gortat, C, PHO (35)
33. Rajon Rondo, PG, BOS (31)
34. Greg Monroe, PF/C, DET (37)
35. Brandon Jennings, PG, MIL (33)
36. Andre Iguodala, SF/SG, PHI (34)
37. JaVale McGee, C, WSH (36)
38. David Lee, PF/C, GS (40)
39. Marcus Thornton, SG, SAC (50)
40. Joe Johnson, SG/SF, ATL (39)
41. Danny Granger, SF, IND (46)
42. James Harden, SG, OKC (42)
43. Roy Hibbert, C, IND (45)
44. Chris Bosh, PF/C, MIA (43)
45. Mike Conley, PG, MEM (44)
46. Ryan Anderson, PF, ORL (47)
47. Tyreke Evans, PG/SG, SAC (55)
48. Kyrie Irving, PG, CLE (48)
49. Gerald Wallace, SF/PF, POR (49)
50. Luol Deng, SF, CHI (51)
51. Serge Ibaka, C/PF, OKC (60)
52. Joakim Noah, C/PF, CHI (59)
53. Manu Ginobili, SG, SA (84)
54. Jrue Holiday, PG, PHI (53)
55. Kris Humphries, PF, NJ (54)
56. Jeremy Lin, PG, NY (NR)
57. Carlos Boozer, PF, CHI (56)
58. Kevin Martin, SG, HOU (41)
59. Nene Hilario, C/PF, DEN (52)
60. Tyson Chandler, C, NY (58)
61. Dorell Wright, SF, GS (64)
62. Tony Parker, PG, SA (57)
63. Jose Calderon, PG, TOR (61)
64. Paul George, SF/SG, IND (71)
65. Kemba Walker, PG, CHA (66)
66. DeAndre Jordan, C, LAC (67)
67. Jason Terry, SG, DAL (70)
68. Ray Allen, SG, BOS (72)
69. Caron Butler, SF, LAC (74)
70. Kevin Garnett, PF, BOS (75)
71. Jeff Teague, PG, ATL (69)
72. Jarrett Jack, PG/SG, NO (63)
73. Drew Gooden, PF, MIL (92)
74. Antawn Jamison, PF, CLE (80)
75. Andrea Bargnani, C/PF, TOR (62)
76. Eric Gordon, SG, NO (68)
77. Al Harrington, PF, DEN (77)
78. Nicolas Batum, SF, POR (85)
79. David West, PF, IND (88)
80. Darren Collison, PG, IND (79)
81. Luis Scola, PF, HOU (86)
82. Tim Duncan, PF/C, SA (83)
83. Jared Dudley, SF/SG, PHO (90)
84. Lou Williams, PG/SG, PHI (94)
85. Nick Young, SG, WSH (87)
86. Mo Williams, PG, LAC (108)
87. Raymond Felton, PG, POR (78)
88. Hedo Turkoglu, SF, ORL (82)
89. Wesley Matthews, SG/SF, POR (81)
90. Brandon Knight, PG/SG, DET (89)
91. Danilo Gallinari, SF/PF, DEN (24)
92. DeMar DeRozan, SG, TOR (95)
93. Channing Frye, PF/C, PHO (109)
94. Jamal Crawford, SG/PG, POR (105)
95. Michael Beasley, SF/PF, MIN (91)
96. Emeka Okafor, C, NO (97)
97. Brook Lopez, C, NJ (122)
98. Nikola Pekovic, C, MIN (115)
99. D.J. Augustin, PG, CHA (102)
100. Spencer Hawes, C, PHI (73)
101. Andre Miller, PG, DEN (98)
102. Jason Richardson, SG, ORL (113)
103. Elton Brand, PF, PHI (110)
104. Arron Afflalo, SG, DEN (124)
105. MarShon Brooks, SG, NJ (127)
106. Jameer Nelson, PG, ORL (120)
107. Rodney Stuckey, PG/SG, DET (104)
108. Marcus Camby, C/PF, POR (106)
109. Gerald Henderson, SG, CHA (101)
110. Trevor Ariza, SF/SG, NO (111)
111. Boris Diaw, PF/SF/C, CHA (96)
112. Anthony Morrow, SG/SF, NJ (99)
113. Zach Randolph, PF, MEM (123)
114. James Johnson, SF, TOR (114)
115. Jason Kidd, PG, DAL (121)
116. Iman Shumpert, PG, NY (100)
117. Randy Foye, SG/PG, LAC (NR)
118. Anderson Varejao, PF/C, CLE (65)
119. Landry Fields, SG, NY (116)
120. Samuel Dalembert, C, HOU (93)
121. Devin Harris, PG, UTAH (112)
122. Shawn Marion, SF/PF, DAL (117)
123. Trevor Booker, PF, WSH (NR)
124. O.J. Mayo, SG, MEM (107)
125. Gordon Hayward, SG/SF, UTAH (126)
126. Ersan Ilyasova, SF/PF, MIL (NR)
127. Chase Budinger, SF, HOU (NR)
128. Mario Chalmers, PG, MIA (125)
129. Stephen Jackson, SG/SF, MIL (128)
130. Tayshaun Prince, SF, DET (130)






The answer to that question, of course, is somewhere in the middle.




Let's get the bad news out of the way first. There is little chance that Lin will continue to see 39 minutes with 19.4 shot attempts per game once Melo and Amare return to the lineup. It's also hard to imagine that Lin will continue to shoot 51.5 percent from the floor when he's just 3-for-17 from downtown in this stretch. But none of this means Lin can't still be a highly effective fantasy point guard.




Breakout candidates are normally found when talent meets opportunity, and Lin has already proved he has the talent (albeit in a small sample size). His basketball IQ is off the charts, and I'm not saying that just because he went to Harvard. Similar to the Minnesota Timberwolves' Ricky Rubio, Lin knows how to direct an offense, and he knows how to get in passing lanes and create deflections on the defensive side.




As for the opportunity? Well, he's found himself in the fortunate situation of being the only true point guard for a team that has been desperate for one all season. He's playing for a coach that (as we've come to learn this year) needs a true point guard to succeed, and he's playing in a system that has been very friendly to point guards over the years. If Chris Duhon and Raymond Felton can be fantasy stars running the point for Mike D'Antoni, why can't Jeremy Lin?




With that said, I've ranked Lin 56th this week, just behind Kyrie Irving and Jrue Holiday among point guards but in front of Tony Parker and Jose Calderon. That's pretty high praise for a player who only has about a week's worth of history to look at, but I believe in D'Antoni's fantasy-friendly system, and I believe in Lin's ability to run that system effectively.




Moving up





Lost in the "Linsanity" craze has been the play of DeMarcus Cousins, who has put up 18.2 points, 12.5 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks over his past 10 games. Cousins has been a man among boys in the paint since Keith Smart replaced Paul Westphal as the Sacramento Kings' coach, and fantasy owners should consider him a top-30 player going forward.




Cousins' teammate, Marcus Thornton, is back to full strength after a thigh injury and is averaging 19.7 points, 1.3 steals and 3.0 3-pointers in six games since his return. These are the type of dynamic numbers we've come to expect from Thornton whenever he's getting quality playing time.




With two separate 10-block games this month, I think it's safe to say Serge Ibaka's slow start is finally behind him. Now that his minutes have crept up into the range of 30-32 per night, Ibaka should be considered a borderline top-50 player.




We discussed Nikola Pekovic briefly last week, but Pek has continued his solid play with 15.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.0 blocks per game over his past five. Pekovic is a brilliant offensive rebounder, which should ensure that he continues to earn quality minutes in the Timberwolves' frontcourt. He shouldn't be available in many leagues at this point, but it's worth checking just in case he has flown under the radar.




Mo Williams hasn't played particularly well since Chauncey Billups went down with a season-ending Achilles injury, but Williams and Randy Foye will be the primary beneficiaries for the Los Angeles Clippers. Williams, who averaged 15.4 points, 1.4 steals and 1.8 3-pointers in the month of January, should right the ship soon and become a quality fantasy option for scoring, 3-point shooting and steals.




Moving down





After sitting out two games near the end of January with a foot injury, Kevin Martin has struggled mightily in his return, with just 12.7 points per game while shooting 38.9 percent from the floor this month. Houston Rockets coach Kevin McHale has not been shy about tinkering with his lineups while Martin struggles. In this stretch, McHale has limited Martin to 24.1 minutes per game while Chase Budinger and Courtney Lee help pick up the slack. There has been no indication that Martin is hiding an injury, so it appears as if this is merely a shooting slump. Martin appeared to be back on track in Sunday night's 28-point effort against the Warriors, so let's cross our fingers and hope the slump is over.




Brandon Jennings has been a streaky shooter throughout his short career, and, after spending much of the season on an incredible run, he finally has hit a bit of a cold streak in recent action. Luckily, he's still been productive despite shooting only 34.4 percent from the floor in seven games this month. Jennings will be fine, but his owners will have to remember that he can go cold from the floor from time to time.




Some might be surprised to see Tony Parker dropping a few spots in the week's rankings after averaging 26.0 points, 7.2 assists and 1.4 steals over his past five games, but his scoring and assists should take a hit with Manu Ginobili back in action.




Samuel Dalembert is up to his old inconsistent tricks again. After posting 9.4 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game in the month of January, Dalembert has slumped with just 3.6 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in 17.5 minutes this month. Dalembert has always struggled with inconsistency, and I wouldn't be surprised one bit if he ended up having value again this season.




Speaking of inconsistency, Tyrus Thomas has managed just 6.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.4 blocks over his past five games. Thomas very well may have a few more stretches when he appears to be turning the corner, but fantasy owners are starting to get wise to his disappearing act. Thomas drops out of the Top 130 this week, and he'll have to put up more than just a couple of solid starts in a row before he'll be welcomed back in.

 

[HacheMan]

Dose: Goodbye, Gordon

Monday didn’t contain many bombshells, which was a nice change in the fantasy hoops world. Sure, Eric Gordon is having more surgery, Brook Lopez is getting closer, and Chris Kaman is relevant again, but there was limited Jeremy Lin news yesterday, other than the fact he became the first player in history to win both the D-League and NBA Player of the Week awards in the same career, but who’s counting?



I’ve been on a Pavement kick lately, and despite my better judgment, am going with song titles for headlines in today’s column. Here we go.



Shady Lane



For those of you holding Eric Gordon, the news wasn’t great on Monday. He’s having knee surgery and will be out for at least six more weeks, meaning his season could easily be over, although it’s not like it ever started. We’re also not sure why the Hornets weren’t more forthcoming with the extent of his injury, but it doesn’t matter now. Greivis Vasquez, Trevor Ariza and Jarrett Jack (if his knee is not in the same state as Gordon’s) are all going to benefit from this news and if you are holding Vasquez, continue to do so. He had 12 points, 10 assists and three steals on Monday night, but hit just 4-of-12 shots. If you can drop Gordon for GV, do it, but there is no reason to hang onto Gordon any longer in fantasy leagues. Jack is out for the rest of this week, making Vasquez a nice option for at least a couple more games.



Elevate Me Later



Brook Lopez should participate in today’s (Tuesday) practice and if that’s successful, I’m guessing he’ll play by the end of the week. In other words, if he’s somehow still available in your league, pick him up, and get ready to use him as soon as this weekend.



The good news on Derrick Rose is that there is no structural damage in his back, and that he’s just suffering from spasms. But the bad news that’s lost in those headlines is that he sounds doubtful for play on Tuesday because of it. If you can plug another option (C.J. Watson?) into your lineup for tonight, do it, although with just nine games, you may not have options available. In any case, just be thankful Rose isn’t likely to miss an extended time period with his balky back.



Spencer Hawes is supposedly targeting Friday for his return from an Achilles injury, but I’ll believe it when I see it. He’s been out for 15 games with a couple different injuries, but if he could come back on Friday and stay healthy throughout the rest of the season, it would be a dream come true for many fantasy owners. However, based on how tough it’s been for Hawes to get back on the court this season, another setback seems more reasonable than a miracle return to glory. If you’re still holding him, there’s no use in letting go now. Nikola Vucevic finally came to life on Monday with eight points, 10 boards and two blocks, but should become irrelevant if Hawes really is ready to go by the end of the week.



Unfair



Carmelo Anthony is expected back “toward the end of this week” from his groin injury. That means he’ll likely miss Tuesday and Wednesday’s games, meaning Jeremy Lin has a couple more nights to enjoy his scoring spotlight. As for Lin’s value going forward, DO NOT CUT HIM. Sure, Melo will come back and eventually slow down the flow of the ball in New York, but I doubt it’s that big of a deal, and I am thinking the two will feed off each other in the end. Lin’s scoring will take a hit, but he could still average 12-14 points, 12 dimes per game, as well as post full stat lines on a regular basis. Melo has already been painted into the bad-guy corner without playing a game with Lin, but I think it is going to work out better than anyone expects it to. Melo needed a good point guard to play with and he finally has one.



Luke Ridnour missed Monday’s game for personal reasons, and while it’s unclear when he’ll return, Jose Juan Barea had 11 points and two 3-pointers in 25 minutes, and I sense a timeshare coming from the two guards. Hanging onto Ridnour is fine, but expecting him to post numbers like he was earlier in the season is looking like a pipe dream.



Spit On A Stranger



D.J. Augustin (toe) is targeting a Wednesday return, which will likely shift Kemba Walker to the position of backup point guard. This is fairly bad news for Walker, who might have shifted to shooting guard instead, meaning he’s a possibility to be dropped from fantasy teams if Paul Silas sticks to his word. However, Walker had 21 points, five assists and three 3-pointers on Monday, and I’m leery about Team Jordan actually benching the rookie. The Bobcats have not only lost 15 straight games, but are 3-25 on the season! After visiting Charlotte on Saturday night, I’m not sure Michael Jordan is even still managing this team, and if he allows Silas to bench a promising rookie in order to start a guy like Corey Maggette in a lost season, it would be inexcusable. The new lineup, when everyone is healthy, would be PG Augstin, SG Gerald Henderson, SF Maggette, PF Boris Diaw and C Bismack Biyombo. Henderson is due back from his hamstring injury soon, and possibly by the end of the week, and it would make a heck of a lot more sense if they started the following lineup, in order to let the kids play and develop for the future: PG Augustin, SG Walker, SF Henderson, PF Diaw/Tyrus Thomas, C Biyombo.



I have no idea why Silas is being allowed to steer this sinking ship, but using Maggette over Walker just makes no sense. Cut Walker if you must, but at some point, the Bobcats have to let him play and learn how to function in the NBA. Speaking of Maggette, he had 22 points and three steals in 32 minutes last night, but even if he continues to start, you have to think his next injury is just a couple games away. Ride Maggette until he breaks, and then look for Walker to suddenly re-emerge as a starter. Reggie Williams continues to start, and had 14 points last night, but is soon headed to the bench once Henderson is ready to go.



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Debris Slide



We are still awaiting word on Anderson Varejao’s timetable to return from a broken wrist. My guess is he’ll miss a month, but look for a new update later on Tuesday. Tristan Thompson and Alonzo Gee look like the guys to pick up if he’s out that long, in that order.



Kyrie Irving is due back for the Cavs on Wednesday (maybe), meaning Ramon Sessions’ run is about to come to an end. Sessions was flat-out balling, but I’m afraid the only hope for him is to be traded to the Heat or Lakers, which is probably a pipe dream. I’m fine with dropping Sessions, but if you have the luxury of hanging onto him without it hurting your team, do it.



Nene and Danilo Gallinari are technically questionable for Tuesday night, but realistically have no shot of playing. Bench Nene until further notice, as he could miss the whole week with a calf injury, while there is still no timetable on when we might see Gallo and his bum ankle again. I’m not a fan of cutting Gallinari, but in some leagues it probably makes sense to get a healthy body in your lineup.



Blake Griffin hit just 2-of-9 free throws on Monday, snapping a hot streak. He was 22-of-27 from the line coming in over his previous four games after implementing a new routine at the stripe, but crashed back to earth last night. Hopefully it was a fluke, and he’ll shoot them better the rest of the way. Despite the hot four-game run, he’s still hitting just 52 percent from the line on the season.



Stephen Curry might have tweaked his troublesome ankle last night, but stayed in the game and played through it. He hit just 3-of-10 shots for nine points, seven boards, five assists and a 3-pointer, while Monta Ellis was 5-of-20 for 18 points. I still don’t know how they did it, but despite an off night for Curry, Ellis and Dorell Wright, the Warriors beat the Suns. Wright played just 23 minutes and had five points on 2-of-6 shooting for the Warriors. He has scored nine or less in three of his last four games, and while that’s highly annoying, he should break out of the funk soon. Keep him in your lineup for now.



Coolin’ By Sound



Elton Brand, who is playing through a sore thumb, saw just 18 minutes for eight points and six boards on Monday night. There was no report of an injury and he was in some foul trouble, but the minutes are obviously a concern. The Sixers beat the Bobcats last night, but it wasn’t in runaway fashion, leaving some concern about Brand. Keep an eye out for some new Brand news on Tuesday.



Grounded



Stephen Jackson played just 17 minutes and had seven points, and Mike Dunleavy had five points in 19 minutes for the Bucks. Meanwhile, Carlos Delfino went nuts, hitting five 3-pointers to finish with 24 points and two steals on 8-of-12 shooting in 32 minutes in a loss to the Heat last night. Putting one of these guys into your lineup is the equivalent of playing Russian roulette, but if you rolled with Delfino this week, so far, so good. I pick-and-played Delfino and am thrilled with the early results, but I could see him falling apart by the end of the week if Jackson or Dunleavy get hot again. The Bucks’ rotation is a mystery, and will continue to be a tough read the rest of the way, thanks to Scott Skiles.



Devin Harris, who I have been accused of standing by for too long, hit just 1-of-4 shots for two points and four assists for the Jazz on Monday. Earl Watson had seven points and five dimes in 29 minutes, and the two point guards look to be locked into a timeshare until further notice. Harris looked “disengaged” at times last night, so keep a close eye on Watson. If he takes over as the starter, he’ll become a must-own player.



Gordon Hayward, who was coming in hot, had just eight points on 3-of-6 shooting for the Jazz last night in a loss to the short-handed Hornets. Hayward had hit double figures in scoring in eight of his nine games coming into the night, so this just looks like an off game to me. Keep him in your lineup.



Frontwards



Wilson Chandler’s Chinese team is expected to go deep into the playoffs, meaning we may not see him until the end of March, or early April. Given that the NBA’s regular season is slated to end on April 26^th, holding Chandler seems pointless as of now.



Zach Randolph is targeting a return in early March from his knee injury and could play in 29 games or so, making him worth a pick-and-hold in most leagues.



J.R. Smith is due to sign with someone in the near future, and the Clippers appear to be the front-runners for his services, as Chris Paul leads a campaign to sign him. Like I said recently, expect some huge lines mixed in with off nights from Smith, as well as a stint in the coach’s doghouse once he’s up and running in the NBA. He’s probably worth holding in many leagues, but I wouldn’t cut a good player to get him.



Starlings Of The Slipstream



Hedo Turkoglu has been dropped in some leagues, but had 14 points, six rebounds, six assists, two steals, a block and two 3-pointers for Orlando in their win over the Timberwolves last night. He hit just 4-of-12 shots, but has hit double digits in scoring in three straight, averaging 14 points, six boards and four assists over the stretch, along with hitting seven 3-pointers. Keep him in your lineup, or grab him if he was dropped. Jameer Nelson had 14 points, six rebounds, two assists and two 3-pointers on Monday, and is averaging 12 points, four rebounds, five assists and a 3-pointer over his last five games. If you can cut Devin Harris to pick up Nelson, do it.



Gold Soundz



Chris Kaman started despite a sprained ankle and went off for 27 points, 13 rebounds and a block on Monday. Emeka Okafor was out with a sore knee, leaving Kaman and Gustavo Ayon as the only healthy bigs on a thin Hornets’ roster. Ayon had 13 points, nine boards and three blocks, and both of these guys are worth using for now. Especially if Okafor is going to miss more time with his injury. This was Okafor’s first missed game of the season and the injury doesn’t appear to be serious, but all three are going to play solid minutes with Jason Smith and Carl Landry out with injuries. If you pick-and-played Ayon for the week, so far, so good.



Easily Fooled



Brendan Haywood somehow had 10 points and nine rebounds in Monday’s win over the Clippers, and had seven points, 10 boards and two blocks in his previous game. Prior to that, he totaled two points and eight rebounds in his previous two games. Unless you’re in a very deep league, ignore Haywood for now.



Ekpe Udoh had nine points, four boards and three more blocks on Monday, and is averaging five points, three boards and 2.2 blocks over his last five. If you’re desperate for blocks, he’s going to rack them up consistently as long as he continues to get 24 minutes per game.

 

[HacheMan]

Linvincible?

Who will get the minutes? It’s a simple question that rarely has a simple answer.

Coaches are constantly tinkering and toying with their rotations. Sometimes it has to with injuries and in other instances, it’s a result of ineffective play from a certain player. The impact this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Every Tuesday for the rest of the season, I’ll explore a certain aspect of half the league’s rotations while attempting to get inside coaches’ heads. The idea isn’t to tell you what Kevin Love and LeBron James are going to do -- it’s to decipher how much burn fringe players are going to get.

Here’s last week’s Position: Point guard
Jeremy Lin has been evaluated in every way, shape and form over the last 10 days. The purpose of this column is minutes, so let’s keep the focus there. Over the last five games, Lin is averaging a ridiculous 39.0 minutes per game. To put that in perspective, only one player (Kevin Love) is averaging at least 39.0 minutes on the year.

Late in the wins over the Wolves and Lakers last weekend, Lin was visibly exhausted on the court. Simply put, this usage is unsustainable. Lin needs to exert maximum effort to get the most out of his talent and is also the primary ball handler. He’s not like Love or Kobe Bryant (38.4 MPG) or Kevin Durant (38.0 MPG), who can glide around the court with ease.

That said, there’s a reason Mike D’Antoni is riding Lin like “friggin’ Secretariat.” The Knicks are 5-0 when he plays 35 minutes or more and 8-15 when he doesn’t. Lin is going to have a long leash as the starter and won’t be threatened in the least by Baron Davis, Iman Shumpert or anyone else. Expect him to settle in around 31-35 minutes the rest of the way, with Shumpert moving off the backup wing spot and into a backup point guard role once Carmelo Anthony (groin) returns.

OK, so we know Lin’s numbers will take a hit simply by the eventual loss of 4-8 minutes each night. Amare Stoudemire’s Tuesday return will mean less shots. And once Anthony returns, possibly as soon as Friday, there will be even less shots. Over the last five games, Lin is attempting 19.4 shots per game and getting to the line 8.4 more times a night. Carmelo Anthony was taking 18.8 shots and 7.4 free throws and everyone called him a cancerous ball hog.

I’m not selling Lin for anything less than a top-60 player, but not anticipating some kind of hit in minutes, points, field-goal percentage and just about every other category is unreasonable.

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BOBCATS
Position: Shooting guard
Yes, the Bobcats are 3-25. But when healthy, they actually have a decent amount of talent that needs playing time.

Let’s talk about what’s going to happen once D.J. Augustin (toe, day-to-day) and Gerald Henderson (hamstring, week-to-week) return. Coach Paul Silas has already said he wants to scrap the mini-me backcourt, pushing Kemba Walker into a backup role. He’s also said that Henderson is his starting shooting guard, so we can say goodbye to sharpshooter Reggie Williams’ starting gig. Tyrus Thomas has already (and deservedly) been benched in favor of Corey Maggette. Thomas shot just 34.6 percent in his 18 starts.

OK, so in the long run we’ll have a starting five of Augustin, Henderson, Maggette, Boris Diaw and Bismack Biyombo. Walker, Thomas and Williams will struggle to top 25-28 minutes as reserves. The time to sell on those three is now.

BUCKS
Position: Small forward
Stephen Jackson won’t confirm or deny that he’s asked for a trade. Still, we can be pretty confident that he has and that the Bucks are trying to accommodate him. Over the last three weeks, Jackson has picked up three DNP-CDs and not started a single game. In six February appearances, he’s playing just 21.9 minutes per night. Captain Jack is playing the good soldier for now, but we can be sure he’s seething inside.

At this point, it’s unclear where Jackson will land after the March 15 deadline. We know he won’t hold reliable value in Milwaukee and I’m not sure he be an asset anywhere. A rebuilding team won’t want him, so only good teams make sense. And at age 31 with a 36.5 field-goal mark this year, he wouldn’t be a first, second or third option on a good team. Only deeper-league owners should be holding.

BULLS
Position: Shooting guard
The Bulls have one of the most stable rotations in the league right now. Even when they’re hit with injury, we know what’s going to happen. With Derrick Rose’s back acting up over the last four games, C.J. Watson has averaged 32.2 minutes per game. When Luol Deng is out, Kyle Korver starts and plays at least 35 minutes. And when Richard Hamilton is out, Ronnie Brewer starts and plays around 30 minutes.

The problem, of course, is that Brewer is a defensive stopper that gets exactly zero plays run for him. In his 22 starts this year, he’s averaging just 8.1 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.5 assists. The 1.4 steals are sustainable, but we should be able to do better. Hamilton’s predictably declining health is a yawner.

CAVALIERS
Position: Shooting guard
Anthony Parker (back) has been out for two full weeks and doesn’t appear close to a return. The real question is if he’s been “Pipped” by Daniel Gibson?

Parker is 36 and averaging a miserable 6.0/2.4/2.0 triple slash in his 18 starts this year. Gibson is 25 and averaging 11.8/4.5/4.0 in his four starts. Boobie is also widely recognized as the Cavs’ best perimeter defender.

The only thing holding Gibson back here is size. Much like the Jerryd Bayless situation, it’s hard to start a 6’2/200 guy at shooting guard. Over the last two seasons, Parker has started 83 of the 90 games he’s appeared in. It would be a mild surprise if Gibson holds the starting gig when/if Parker gets healthy. All we can do is simply ride Boobie in the meantime.

Bonus: Power forward
Anderson Varejao’s injury theoretically opens up monster minutes for No. 4 overall pick Tristan Thompson. But coach Byron Scott has chosen to start Semih Erden at center and Thompson has got just 19 minutes on Saturday. What gives?

Well, Thompson was coming off an ankle injury that caused him to miss four straight games at the start of February. He’s also just 6’9/227 and won’t be 22 years old until March. Scott is going to bring him along slowly.

"I want to keep him coming off the bench for right now," Scott said. “He missed a while and I want him to get a few more practices in and get his timing back."

Thompson will eventually be the man here, but it’s going to take some time. He’s a hold while we wait for Erden to inevitably faceplant.

CELTICS
Position: Center
Sixth man Brandon Bass (knee) is not expected back until after the All-Star break and Jermaine O’Neal (shoulder) is day-to-day. That’s led to two straight games with 22-plus minutes for pure rebounder Chris Wilcox. In those two games, Wilcox is averaging 7.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 0.5 assists with one block and one steal. Yawn. Even when injuries inevitably leave the aging Celtics’ front line shorthanded, there’s not much upside here.

HAWKS
Position: Point guard
Kirk Hinrich made his season debut 10 games ago. During that time, Jeff Teague is playing just 27.7 minutes per game. In the first 18 games of the season, Teague was playing 35.0 minutes per game. Yes, the 31-year-old Hinrich has siphoned more than seven minutes per game from the youngster.

The saving grace here is that Hinrich has an $8 million expiring contract and the Hawks are in desperate need of a big man. They are also 13-5 in games Hinrich hasn’t played in and 5-5 with him. A trade at the March 15 deadline would make a ton of sense here.

HEAT
Position: Sixth man
LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh combine to attempt 50.2 field goals per game. The average NBA team attempts around 80 field goals per night. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that the Heat have just 30 shots to split up among the other six players in their rotation. Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller and Shane Battier are all excellent real-life players whose fantasy value is swallowed up by the Big Three. I also discussed Mario Chalmers’ declining role when the Big Three are healthy two weeks ago Position: Sixth man
When Jason Richardson has been healthy this year, J.J. Redick is averaging just 23.3 minutes per game. That’s just not enough, even for someone with an extremely fantasy-friendly game like Redick.

To make matters worse for Redick, Richardson has been surprisingly on fire in February. Over his last seven games, J-Rich is averaging 18.1 points and 3.7 3-pointers made on 48.9 percent shooting. The Magic are 5-2 during that span and playing their best ball of the season. Redick is just a stash while we wait for an injury.

NETS
Position: Small forward
MarShon Brooks is back in the starting five, but hasn’t topped 23 minutes since returning. It’s a concern after the Nets hinted at limiting the youngster’s minutes going forward due to nagging injuries.

"We want to try to keep this kid in a healthy place," coach Avery Johnson said back on Jan. 28, before Brooks went down with a fractured toe. "We’re trying to figure out how we’re going to monitor his minutes, and maybe he’s not gonna play 48 or 38 minutes again this year. Maybe it’s 28."

With Anthony Morrow entrenched in 31-34 minutes and Jordan Farmar more than capable of playing 30 quality minutes nightly off the bench, the Nets can certainly use kid gloves with Brooks. Expect the rookie to settle in around 28-30 minutes.

PISTONS
Position: Power forward
The Pistons have shown their hand with their three-guard rotation. Brandon Knight and Rodney Stuckey will stick as starters, with Ben Gordon entrenched in his natural bench scorer role. The more interesting battle is being waged at power forward.

Jonas Jerebko started the first 13 games of the season. He averaged 9.8 points, 6.0 rebounds and 0.6 3-pointers while playing 29.2 minutes per game. The problem is that the Pistons went 3-10 during that span and Jerebko got demoted. The bigger problem is that current starter Jason Maxiell has been part of a 4-2 surge in his six starts. Jerebko is younger and the better offensive talent, but a promotion doesn’t appear close. Owners will have to settle for 22-25 minutes nightly.

RAPTORS
Position: Shooting guard
Dwane Casey has nine healthy players right now that all hover around the same skill level. That’s going to lead to wildly unpredictable rotations.

Since Andrea Bargnani aggravated his calf injury 10 games ago, DeMar DeRozan, Jose Calderon and James Johnson have started every night. Ride them. The other spots appear to be dependent on matchups.

When it’s been reasonable, Casey has gone small by starting Jerryd Bayless at shooting guard. However, Bayless is coming off an ankle sprain and the Raptors are 2-4 in his six starts this year. When Casey goes big, he shifts DeRozan to shooting guard and plays Aaron Gray/Amir Johnson up front. That lineup beat the Celtics on Friday and almost knocked off the Lakers on Sunday.

Add it up and we have a hairy situation for Bayless owners. He’s not at 100 percent, the team has arguably played better without him and he really struggles to defend most opposing shooting guards. Still, I’m holding in all spots. A Calderon trade remains possible and Bayless’ explosive game demands 25 minutes. In those six starts, he averaged 14.5 points, 3.3 assists, 2.0 3-pointers and 1.0 steals.

SIXERS
Position: Power forward
Jrue Holiday and Andre Iguodala are going to play 32-36 minutes every night. Everyone else is subject to game flow thanks to the Sixers’ depth.

Elton Brand is no exception as the “Old Chevy” is noticeably wearing down. His usually automatic jumper has been short of late, perhaps due to his thumb injury. Over the last four games, Brand is shooting just 38.6 percent and therefore playing just 26.3 minutes per night. He’s been outplayed by Thaddeus Young every night and even Nikola Vucevic over the last two games. Once Spencer Hawes (Achilles) gets healthy, perhaps as soon as Friday, Brand will be in an even bigger squeeze for minutes.

Still, Brand figures to use the upcoming All-Star break to recharge his batteries. And although he’ll likely hover around 26-28 minutes the rest of the way, there’s still value here. Only five NBA players are blocking 1.5 shots and getting 1.0 steals right now (Marc Gasol, Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, Marcus Camby and James Johnson). Brand is at 1.5 and 0.9.

WIZARDS
Position: Center
JaVale McGee curiously averaged just 22.3 minutes in the first five games of February. Blame it on the asthma. That’s right, the insanely athletic yet often awkward McGee apparently has a pretty severe case of athletic asthma. Doctors told him he was breathing at 75 percent.

Now McGee has some new medicine and is feeling fresh. Over the last two games, he’s playing 35.2 minutes and is averaging 23.0 points, 12.0 rebounds and 1.5 blocks. Whether the slump was related to the asthma or not, coach Randy Wittman recognizes McGee as a long-term building block and won’t bail on him.

 

[HacheMan]

Grand Theft Roto: Trade Jeremy Lin?

By Tom Carpenter
Special to ESPN.com

You know a sports story has reached epic levels when people who don't follow sports in any way are asking you questions like, "What's the deal with this Jeremy Lin kid?" Some want to compare Lin's mania to the buzz that surrounded Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow when he was on a six-game winning streak that helped lead his team to the playoffs this past season. There are some similarities: both stories expanded beyond the normal boundaries of the sports community, and there were questions about whether Tebow and Lin had the requisite skills to become successful professionals in their respective sports.




However, there are two enormous differences which make the Lin phenomenon that much more impressive than "Tebow Mania." First, Tebow was one of the greatest collegiate football players of all time, while Lin was -- to be blunt -- a nobody. Second, while Tebow had some incredible comeback wins that were impressive, he did not pile up statistics the likes of which no one -- I repeat, no one -- has ever done in the history of his game, like Lin has done in the NBA.




With this kind of buzz about an unknown player like Lin, there's no bigger question in Fantasyland than, "What's his trade value?" To answer that question, I'm going to use an actual example from one of my experts leagues to show how I assessed Lin's free-agent and trade value. What I want you to take note of as I go through my process is how you can use these factors to assess the value of any player in free agency and trades. Also, as I tend to note quite often, the trade value of a player has as much to do with your team's needs as the actual projected production and risk of the player involved.




This experts league has a head-to-head points system that rewards quality all-around play. That means that guys who have excellent percentages or pile up quality hustle stats are going to produce well. Chuckers who have poor shooting percentages and just score and board are going to have limited production. On Friday morning as I prepared to make my FAAB bid on Lin, my team had the second-best record and second most points scored in the league, and I had a two-game lead in my division. In other words, my team was solid and picking up steam, so I figured I was in prime position to make a play on Lin as a bonus add if he turns out to be the real deal.




Of course, that brings us to the big question: is Lin the real deal? Obviously, there is no true answer to that because he's an unknown who has done things that no one has ever done. But we can make an educated assessment by looking at what we know and don't know about Lin.




What we know about Lin




• He was a successful high school player in California. Lin averaged 15.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, 7.1 assists and 5.0 steals as a senior, as he helped lead his team to the California Division II title. Despite being named to the California All-State team, he failed to garner a basketball scholarship offer, so he went to the Ivy League.




• He played college ball at Harvard. That means that he is very intelligent and motivated, which in turn means he's fully capable of grasping Mike D'Antoni's offense and making good decisions on the court as the point guard. It also means he's not likely to flake out like many young ballers would do in this type of situation.

• He was successful in college. He scored 30 points against UConn and was named to the All-Ivy League first team his junior and senior seasons. Lin averaged 16.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 2.4 steals and 1.1 blocks as a senior. In December 2009, ESPN's Dana O'Neil wrote this piece about Lin, which gives a nice background on who Lin is and how he approaches the game.




• He's 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds. That means that he's big enough and strong enough to handle himself against most NBA point guards. If you've watched any of his games in the past week, you can see he's quick and agile enough to play both sides of the ball, too.




• He failed to impress the right people in the NBA. Lin was unable to secure a role with the Golden State Warriors as a rookie. He failed to earn practice time with the Houston Rockets in December. And somehow he couldn't get any minutes at the point for the Knicks this season, even though D'Antoni was desperately trying to find someone -- anyone -- to run the point.




• He's been historically good. Lin scored more points in his first three and four starts than anyone in the NBA since the merger with the ABA. Magic Johnson? Michael Jordan? LeBron James? Kevin Durant? Larry Bird? Blake Griffin? Nope. None of them were as good as Lin has been out of the gate as a starter.




• He's averaged 27.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 5.5 turnovers, 2.0 steals, 0.8 3-pointers and shot 51.3 percent on field goals (on 19.5 attempts) and 74.3 percent from the stripe (on 8.8 attempts) in those first four starts. In Fantasyland, he was basically LeBron James for a week.




What we don't know about Lin




• Is he just lucky? Plenty of players have gotten hot for a week only to never be heard from again. Based on what we know about Lin, I think he can play in the NBA, especially once he can lean on studs like Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire instead of shouldering the entire team.




• Can he maintain this pace? No. Once Melo and STAT get back on the hardwood, Lin will not take 19.5 shots per game, nor will he average 8.8 free throw attempts. He did shoot better than 50 percent from the floor in his final two seasons at Harvard. While it's unlikely he'll maintain that pace for the rest of the NBA season, I do think he can maintain a respectable percentage -- maybe in the range of 45-47 percent.




• Will opposing coaches find a way to corral him? This is my biggest concern at this point (pun intended). Give a good coach enough time and film, and he should find a way to limit the production of most point guards who aren't among the elite at the position. Having Melo and Amare to limit the direct pressure on Lin will help. Another positive for Lin is his ability to work the pick-and-roll. It's nearly impossible to slow down a properly run pick-and-roll tandem. With Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler both solid as the big man in the pick-and-roll, Lin could be hard to stop in that respect.




With all of this in mind, I was buying on Lin as the hottest free-agent pickup of the season. Figuring that he should at least have a legit shot at being a reliable player in this format and possibly a stellar option, I dropped $53 of my $100 FAAB budget on him to be sure I landed him. I beat out several bids in the $20 range and one at $51. I got my man Friday evening.

First thing Saturday morning, I received a trade offer from the owner who bid 51 bucks on Lin. While my team has been dominant this season, this owner's team has been hit hard by injuries and poor play from guys like Zach Randolph, Kyrie Irving, Danny Granger and Stephen Jackson. That left him 0-6 and incredibly desperate to do something dramatic.




We tossed a couple of trade proposals back and forth before settling on this one: my John Wall and Lin for his Chris Paul and Z-Bo. In my opinion, it was a good trade for both of us.




This brings me to my earlier point about how the fantasy value of a player is in the eye of the beholder, based on the specific needs of the owner's team. My team is solid and will be in the playoffs, so I'm focused on making sure my team is at its best for the postseason run. So I get a significant upgrade from Wall to CP3, and if Z-Bo can get back on the court in the next month, I'll have a much-needed quality forward for my playoff roster.




Meanwhile, the other owner gets an immediate infusion of talent and depth. Wall is fully capable of having a monster second half of the season, and maybe the owner gets lucky and Lin stays hot the rest of the way. It's his only hope for making the playoffs. In other words, while my good team was looking to be better in a month, his struggling squad was aiming for immediate improvements.




So when someone asks me whether Lin for Player X is a good deal, the true answer will almost always be that it depends on the needs of the teams involved. With that in mind, if you snagged Lin off waivers and are wondering if you should keep or trade him, consider your position in the standings and the statistical needs of your team. How much risk do you need to take to be successful? How much do you believe in Lin? Even more importantly, how much would another owner be willing to pay for him?




In a vacuum, not considering outside factors, I think a good starting point for Lin trade offers would run the gamut from injured guys like Z-Bo and Andrea Bargnani to midrange players with big upside like Paul Millsap, Kyrie Irving, Ty Lawson, Marc Gasol, DeMarcus Cousins and Ryan Anderson. Primarily, I think trading or acquiring Lin is best done through a multiplayer deal like the one I described. This way you can lessen the risk involved for both teams by spreading it among two or three players.




The bottom line is that his trade value will almost assuredly not be any higher than it is right now, so flip him quickly if you want to max out that value. If you're desperate to make a splash and believe he can maintain his studly ways, then go "all-Lin" and keep him on your roster (damn, I was that close to being the first person to write an entire column on Lin without making a pun out of his name).