NBA Fantasy News 2011/2012

[HacheMan]

Babbling Brook

There are a few things in life that make us feel really, really good. A piping hot steak off the grill. The love of a beautiful woman. A new high score in Temple Run. And of course, picking someone up off waivers and having him turn into an every-night beast.

Owners that have been stashing Brook Lopez (foot surgery) can taste a similar feeling. In competitive leagues and/or those with an IL spot, Lopez has almost certainly been on a roster all or most of the season. So getting him back on the court will be akin to adding an elite fantasy center.

On Thursday, Lopez was out of his walking boot dressed for Nets practice. He was doing shooting drills and even some light rebounding. His arms reportedly “look muscular” thanks to the weightlifting he did following surgery. And most importantly, the Nets say he is still on track with that 6-8 week timetable. That means Lopez is expected back in 2-4 weeks.

Lopez will be eased in initially, but let’s not forget how special of a talent this guy is. The true 7-footer is a career 50.4 percent shooter from the field and 80.1 percent shooter from the line. Those are the difference-making numbers. And over the final 25 games of last season, he averaged 22.7 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks. He had never missed a game in his NBA career before this season.

If Lopez returns in three weeks, he’ll play in roughly 35 games. That’s a nice, meaty portion of the season to chew on.

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NEWS OF THE DAY #2
Rajon Rondo is downplaying his wrist injury, but the Celtics were concerned enough to send him for an MRI on Thursday afternoon. Coach Doc Rivers is already on the record calling his point guard “doubtful” for Friday’s game against the Suns.

There’s a little extra concern here because the damage is to Rondo’s shooting wrist. The good news is that Rondo can get by just shooting layups and floaters. Look for Avery Bradley to start Friday with Keyon Dooling (knee) in doubt, but Rondo’s injury doesn’t appear overly serious.

NEWS OF THE DAY #3
Marcus Camby (ankle) will return to the starting lineup Friday after practicing in full again on Thursday. We can safely expect the same role and production Camby had before going down: 8.2 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 21-25 minutes.

The other issue here is the playing time of uber-talented Nicolas Batum. In games that Camby has been active for this season, Batum is averaging just 10.2 points and playing 24 minutes a night. His two best games of the year came with Camby sidelined. Batum’s eye is fine, but his arrow is pointing sideways at best right now.

THURSDAY NIGHT GAME THOUGHTS, HEAT POUND LAKERS
LeBron James has played without Dwyane Wade (foot, ankle) four times this year. He’s averaging 32.2 points, 10.0 assists and 7.0 rebounds in those games. Wade remains without a timetable for return. … Shane Battier started in place of James Jones so he could check Kobe. Battier ended up with 11 points in 34 minutes. … Mike Miller only played 20.3 minutes per game last year. Not sure why anyone thought he would play more this year after the Heat added Battier. Miller got 14 minutes Thursday, even with Wade out. … Andrew Bynum is as strong and healthy as he’s ever been. Again, the Matthew Stafford of the hoops season.

THURSDAY NIGHT GAME THOUGHTS, UNDERCARD
The Hornets’ power forward spot is going to be based on game flow. Jason Smith had it going on Thursday, so he got 29 minutes. It could be Chris Kaman, Carl Landry or even Gustavo Ayon next game. … Trevor Ariza’s groin may still be balky, but he logged 45 minutes. … Devin Harris has a big problem: He can’t shoot and has lost confidence in his shot. … I’ve been burned by Roddy Beaubois many times before. The Mavs just don’t trust him as anything more than a spurt scorer. One game won’t change that. … No, Shawn Marion isn’t back. Don’t overreact to one game when a guy is 33 years old. … Derrick Favors got ejected for throwing the ball in frustration. He hasn’t topped 25 minutes in a game since Dec. 30.

INJURY FAST BREAK: GUARDS
Chris Paul (hamstring) is questionable for Friday. He did work out for an hour prior to Wednesday’s game. … Derrick Rose (toe) is headed for a game-time call. C.J. Watson is the handcuff. … Stephen Curry (ankle) is doubtful for Friday. Nate Robinson will rock on. … Vince Carter (foot) is out at least through Saturday. … Anthony Parker (back) practiced Thursday. The Daniel Gibson party is likely over already.

INJURY FAST BREAK: FORWARDS AND CENTERS
Andrea Bargnani (calf) did not practice Thursday. He may be targeting Sunday for a return. … Josh Howard (quad) is targeting Saturday or Wednesday for his return. He’s got a long way to go to earn a starting job. … Michael Beasley (foot) is not traveling with the Wolves on their two-game trip. … Spencer Hawes (Achilles) is a game-time decision for Friday.

DEPTH CHART QUICK SLANTS
The Kings are going to roll with a “partnership” at power forward between starter Jason Thompson and J.J. Hickson. Chuck Hayes (shoulder) will only make this situation worse once he returns. … Coach Flip Saunders is now praising Andray Blatche for team play. He’s locked into huge minutes again. … The dust-up between Stephen Jackson and Scott Skiles is water under the bridge now. Jackson should start Friday. … Nikola Pekovic is not likely to be named the starter, but has earned 15-20 minutes per game.

 

[HacheMan]

Where Are You Ben?
The Magic play five games in Week 5, while the Nuggets, Warriors, Clippers, Lakers, Thunder, Kings and Jazz have three games. All other teams go four times next week.

Week 5 is nearly here, although many of us are just trying to survive the end of Week 4. Injuries to Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Stephen Curry and Spencer Hawes, to name a few, have been devastating to fantasy owners. And if you’re like me and have Wade in your lineup this week, sorry about your luck. C.J. Watson, Mo Williams and Nate Robinson should be owned, at least watched closely, by the owners of Rose, Paul and Curry, while Wade and Hawes don’t really have a backup worthy of being owned in most leagues. And while Mike Miller was all the rage after his six treys on Wednesday, he didn’t do much of anything on Thursday. He’s worth watching, but my guess is he’ll be hurt before he helps your fantasy team.

The rookies are also playing very well this season and point guards Ricky Rubio, Kyrie Irving, Brandon Knight, Iman Shumpert and Kemba Walker, along with shooting guard MarShon Brooks should all be owned in most leagues.


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Point Guards

Luke Ridnour Timberwolves

Ridnour is starting at shooting guard, but might only qualify at point guard in some leagues. In any case, he’s averaging 12.5 points, 3.4 assists, 1.4 3-pointers and 1.0 steal per game. He cooled off on Wednesday night and while it’s possible his run could finally be slowing down, Rick Adelman likes him and Ridnour is worth owning in most leagues.

Andre Miller Nuggets

Miller is stuck on the bench behind Ty Lawson, but is making the most of it this season, averaging more than 10 points, six dimes and a steal per game. He will also have the occasional explosion from behind the arc, as he’s hit seven 3-pointers this season with five of them coming in just two games. And one of those games was a big one, when he blew up for 28 points, eight rebounds, 10 assists, two steals and three 3-pointers on Wednesday. And it looks like he’s spending enough time on the court with Lawson that it’s hurting Arron Afflalo’s progress this season.

Rodney Stuckey Pistons

Stuckey is also coming off the bench and is recovering from a groin injury. He’s been hit or miss since his return from injury, but is averaging 11 points and nearly 4.5 assists per game on the season. He’ll be shaky off the bench, but should be able to match those numbers as the sixth man in Detroit. Late breaking news tells us that Stuckey's groin will keep him out on Friday and this is an injury that could linger, so you might want to look elsewhere for help in Week 5.

Delonte West Mavericks

West is starting at shooting guard and playing point guard when Jason Kidd is injured or resting, and is averaging 8.5 points, 3.0 assists and more than a steal per game in January. Vince Carter is currently injured, which helps West’s cause, but he looks like a useful add in deeper leagues as long as he’s starting.

Baron Davis Knicks

Davis is due back in the next two weeks from a sore back and is worth stashing now that he’s getting close. Point guards generally fare well under Mike D’Antoni and while I think Davis will be hurt on and off for the whole season, he’ll be worth using when healthy. Iman Shumpert should be owned in most leagues right now and my hope is he slides over to shooting guard once Davis is back. But even if he ends up being Davis’ backup, Baron should be hurt enough that Shumpert will hold his value.

The Rest

Kirk Hinrich Hawks - He’s due back any day now and could have value off Hawks bench.

Devin Harris Jazz - He’s been terrible, but could still have value, especially if traded.

Isaiah Thomas Kings - He’s getting solid minutes and looks like a better hold than

Shooting Guards

Ben Gordon Pistons

Gordon is heating up, averaging 14.6 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.3 3-pointers per game. He’s scored 18 in two straight games and is playing heavy minutes, and it looks like he might finally be ready to start producing consistently.

Evan Turner Sixers

Turner is back from a quad injury and playing well, going for 20 points on Wednesday with a near triple-double, and has scored in double figures in four straight games, if you don’t count a two-point effort on the night he suffered the injury. He’s coming off the bench, but should get starter’s minutes for the Sixers.

Nick Young Wizards

Young got off to a slow start and is challenged by Jordan Crawford, but is fighting him off, averaging 16 points and 1.5 threes per game. As long as he’s starting over Crawford, he should be safe to put into starting fantasy lineups. He’s scored 24 and 27 points in two of his last four games, and could be heating up for the lowly Wizards.

Richard Hamilton Bulls

Hamilton is back from a groin injury and had 11 points, six assists and a 3-pointer in his return to action Wednesday. Once healthy and grooving again for the Bulls, he should be able to average close to 14 points, four rebounds and four assists, with the occasional steal and 3-pointer.

J.J. Redick Magic

Redick has been filling in for Jason Richardson, who is due back soon from a knee injury. Redick has scored in double figures in four of his last five games, knocking down eight 3-pointers during that stretch. And even with Richardson’s return looming, is still worth a look if you need threes. Especially with the league’s only five-game week coming in Week 5.

The Rest

Arron Afflalo Nuggets – Off to a slow start, but has hit double digits in points in eight of his last nine games, hitting 16 3-pointers over that stretch.

Leandro Barbosa Raptors – Cooled off on Wednesday, but has scored 20 or more in three of his last five with six 3-pointers.

Kawhi Leonard Spurs – He’s starting for the Spurs and hit double figures in six straight before Wednesday’s 2-point dud.

Shannon Brown Suns – Coming off bench, but could be starting before long, after Ronnie Price failed miserably in Wednesday’s start.<!--RW-->

Small Forwards

Tayshaun Prince Pistons

Prince is on fire, scoring 20, 20 and 29 points in his last three games. He’s getting a ton of minutes and has hit five treys over his hot streak. He won’t score 20 per game, but is playing well enough to be added in nearly all leagues.

Nicolas Batum Blazers

Batum went on a tear in the absence of Marcus Camby but suffered an eye injury on Wednesday. Camby is due back for the Blazers Friday, but so is Batum, who likely earned more minutes after averaging 24 points, eight rebounds, a steal, two blocks and four 3-pointers over a recent two-game stretch without Camby in uniform.

Trevor Ariza Hornets

Ariza came back from his groin injury with a bang on Wednesday, racking up 18 points, five rebounds, seven assists, four steals and a block on 7-of-13 shooting. He hit just 3-of-9 with a 3-pointer on Thursday for 10 points, five boards, three assists and a steal. His shooting percentage is always a concern, but he’ll do enough across the board to be worth using in many leagues. He will also take a hit once Eric Gordon is back, but we still don’t know when that will be. Ariza’s groin flared up on Thursday but he played through it.

Marvin Williams Hawks

Marvin is recovering from a sprained ankle and hasn’t looked great in his return, but should get plenty of minutes and shots with Al Horford shut down with shoulder surgery. He had 12 points and eight boards in his last game and was hitting a 3-pointer per game before suffering the injury. Twelve points, seven boards and a 3-pointer per game should be easily in reach once he’s back at full strength.

Carlos Delfino & Tobias Harris Bucks

Delfino hasn’t blown up yet, but is getting minutes and has hit 13 threes in his last six games. Stephen Jackson is in Scott Skiles’ doghouse (and suspended for Friday), while Mike Dunleavy should be back for that one. Delfino is still worth a look right now, despite inconsistent scoring. He’s also racked up 10 steals and three blocks in his last four games, and is rebounding and handing out assists. If his shot starts falling, he could put up some really big numbers. Rookie Tobias Harris is also worth a look, averaging 13 points and 5.5 boards in his last two games. He’s a deep-league special, but will see inconsistent minutes coming off the bench. But as long as Jackson is struggling and fighting with his coach, Skiles won’t be afraid to let Harris play.

The Rest

Chandler Parsons Rockets – Inconsistent scorer, but starting and averaging nearly eight points, seven boards, two steals and a block in eight starts.

Omri Casspi Cavaliers – Is finally coming on, averaging close to 12 points, six rebounds and a 3-pointer over his last three games. He also has two steals and two blocks over that stretch.

Richard Jefferson Spurs – Cooled off recently, but still starting and a good source of threes.

James Johnson Raptors – Now starting for Raptors, but awful on Wednesday. Just keep an eye on him if you need steals and blocks.

Corey Brewer Nuggets – Getting inconsistent minutes, but productive when he plays.

Power Forwards

Andray Blatche Wizards

Blatche is back in the starting five for the Wizards and had 12 points, 10 boards, four assists, two steals, a block and a 3-pointer on Wednesday. He should be owned in all leagues, but grab him if he was dropped in yours. I picked him up in a 14-team league on Sunday and am pretty happy about it.

Markieff Morris Suns

His first start was ruined by the flu on Wednesday but it looks like he could be the starting PF in Phoenix the rest of the way. He can score, board, block and hit 3-pointers, making him a very attractive fantasy option. I think he should be grabbed in most leagues, even if you’re not going to start him.

Al Harrington Nuggets

Harrington is quietly averaging 14 points, five boards, 1.8 steals and 1.7 3-pointers off the Nuggets bench. He’s getting 24 minutes a game and seems to be doing exactly what George Karl wants him to.

Jason Smith Hornets

Smith started at power forward and scored a season-high 17 points on 8-of-16 shooting with five rebounds, one assist, one steal, and three blocks over 29 minutes in the Hornets' overtime loss on Thursday. He's starting over Chris Kaman and has also had games of 15 & 10 and 14 & 6 with nine blocks over his last four games. The frontcourt is a mess in New Orleans, but Smith is somebody to consider in 12-team leagues if you need a PF. Just know that Kaman or Carl Landry could overtake him for the starting job at any time.


Marreese Speights Grizzlies

Speights has been hit or miss as the Grizzlies starting power forward in place of Zach Randolph, deserves to be owned as long as he’s starting. And he should keep the job for another month or so as Randolph recovers from his torn MCL.

Tyrus Thomas Bobcats

Thomas has struggled as the starting power forward in Charlotte but could get hot at any time. He’s averaging six points, three boards and two blocks recently, but is still worth holding in case he finally gets it figured out. Bismack Biyombo recently had a big game, but I’ve listed him under the centers.

Centers

Samuel Dalembert Rockets

We told you to hang onto Sammy through his slow start and that patience is really paying off, as he’s averaging 15 points, 13 rebounds and two blocks over his last five games. If he’s available in your league, pick him up right now.

Brook Lopez Nets

Lopez is recovering from a broken foot but appears to be on pace to return sometime in the next month. I have trouble holding injured players for too long, but Lopez is getting close enough that it’s time to move on him. And over the final 25 games of last season, he averaged 22.7 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks, and while I doubt he does that again this year, he might come close if he truly is healthy.

Mehmet Okur Nets

In the meantime, Okur is holding down the center position in Jersey and playing better. He’s averaging 11 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.8 3-pointers over his last five games. And he should continue to do so over the next month with Lopez in street clothes.

Nikola Pekovic Timberwolves

Pekovic’s numbers are not impressive, but he did start over Darko Milicic for the second half of Wednesday’s game, and Darko hasn’t exactly gotten it done at center for the Wolves this season. If Pekovic does take the job, he’ll be worth adding in deeper leagues and could average 10 points, five boards and a block per game, which he came close to in 11 starts last season.

Jason Thompson Kings

Thompson replaced J.J. Hickson in the starting five for Sacramento on Wednesday and had nine points, 10 rebounds and a couple steals in 26 minutes. While he’s worth a close look, Thompson, Hickson and Chuck Hayes (once he’s back from a shoulder injury) will all share time at PF for the Kings. But until Hayes is back, Thompson might be worth a deep-league fill-in.

Bismack Biyombo Bobcats

The rookie had 11 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks on Tuesday, which was his first real production of the season. He might be worth a flier right now, but only if you have a scrub to cut. I need to see him do this a couple more times before taking the bait. Before getting 21 minutes on Tuesday, he was a DNP in his previous game, and is averaging just 12 minutes per game on the season. Keep a close eye on him Saturday at Chicago.

 

[HacheMan]

Monday's Dose: Dirk Shutdown

Injuries are the story of the season thus far, as stars like Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Stephen Curry, Rajon Rondo, Manu Ginobili, Eric Gordon and Gerald Wallace have all missed games this season. There is plenty to talk about with those guys, but we’ll save that until the end of the column. Here are 15 stories to think about heading into Week 5.



1. Dirk Nowitzki Shut Down Until Sunday



I said I’d wait until the end to hit the injury report, but Nowitzki’s surprising shutdown is worthy of top billing for Monday’s Dose. He’s dealing with a sore knee, but the bigger issue seems to be his conditioning. I’m guessing the Mavs will run him during his rest period in hopes of getting him back into shape. His numbers have been hugely disappointing, but his trade value is just too low right now to move him in fantasy leagues. He should be back on Sunday, so get him benched in weekly leagues. Expect Shawn Marion to have a big week in his absence, while Lamar Odom, who had a season-high 16 points on Saturday, could also be worth a flier with Dirk out for the next three games.



2. The Magic Play Five Games in Week 5



The Magic play five times this week, meaning Dwight Howard and Ryan Anderson are must-starts, while Jameer Nelson, Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu, J.J. Redick and Glen Davis are all worth a look in weekly lineup leagues without game limits. Turkoglu missed Wednesday and Friday’s game with back spasms, but could be back for all five of this week’s games. His status for Monday’s game at Boston is up in the air, but I’m thinking he should be in starting lineups this week after the time off.



The Nuggets, Warriors, Clippers, Lakers, Thunder, Kings and Jazz play three games, and all other teams go four times in Week 5.



3. The James Johnson Saga



New Raptors starter Johnson blew up on Friday for a career-high 23 points to go along with six rebounds, two assists, two steals, four blocks and a 3-pointer, and backed it up with seven points, two rebounds, two assists, two steals, three blocks and a 3-pointer on Sunday. Scoring will be an issue, as will be inconsistency, but the Raptors play four times this week, and Johnson could put up a lot of steals, blocks and threes – which are fantasy gold. Linas Kleiza had 16 points and two 3-pointers, and could overtake Johnson as the starting small forward at some point, but rolling the dice on JJ could pay big dividends this week. Do you feel lucky? Leandro Barbosa had 19 points and three 3-pointers on Sunday, and has hit double figures in eight of his last nine games. I’m rolling him out in some leagues this week, and you should too.



4. Rise Of Bismack Biyombo



Do I trust rookie Bismack Biyombo? Absolutely not. But the fact remains he had 11 points, seven boards, two steals and four blocks on Sunday, and 11 points, 12 boards and four blocks on Tuesday. The Bobcats will use him primarily as a backup center for now, but he’s playing well enough to be picked up in deeper leagues. He had just four points in 11 minutes on Saturday, but is coming on.



5. DeAndre Jordan Has Become A Force



Jordan had 16 points, 16 rebounds and two blocks on Sunday and looks like a must-start player going forward. Jordan has been a bit of a mess thus far, scoring 4, 12, 2, 19, 2 and 16 points in his last six games, but has also racked up more than 10 rebounds per game over that stretch, along with 21 blocks in his last seven games. The Clips play just three times this week, but Jordan should be able to help you win boards and blocks for the week, despite the limited schedule.



6. Paul Pierce Is Back



Pierce’s heel injury appears to be behind him and he had 34 points, eight rebounds, 10 assists and three steals on Sunday. He was pretty bad to start the season, but is clearly back. Get him in your lineup.



7. Ricky Rubio Is Having Fun



I was offered Danny Granger for Ricky Rubio in one league, but am not taking the bait. I was really down on Rubio coming into the season, but he’s exceeded everyone’s expectations thus far. He’s averaging 11 points, 4.6 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 2.4 steals and nearly a 3-pointer per game, and is shooting 40 percent from the floor. He hit just 5-of-30 shots in a terrible three-game stretch recently, but broke out of the funk with 5-of-12 hits on Saturday. Despite the shooting concerns, he’s racked up 30 steals in his last eight games, along with a healthy dose of assists, rebounds, points and threes, and should be in all starting lineups until further notice. My head tells me to trade him for Granger, but my heart won’t let me do it.



8. Samuel Dalembert Is Rolling



Dalembert is averaging 16 points, 10 rebounds and more than two blocks per game over his last four games and has been playing very well in his last six. The Rockets play four times a week from here until the All-Star break, and Dalembert has reached must-start status until further notice. The Rockets’ first 3-game week won’t happen until the week of March 25^th.



9. Al Harrington Loves George Karl



Al Harrington torched the Knicks, his former team, for 24 points, 11 rebounds and four threes, just a night after gutting the Wizards for 29 points, seven boards and five 3-pointers. He’s averaging 15.5 points, nearly six boards, nearly two 3-pointers and over a steal per game on the season despite coming off the Nuggets bench. If he’s available in your league, pick him up.



10. Tiago Splitter Is Worth A Look



Tiago Splitter started in place of Tim Duncan on Saturday, as Duncan was simply given a rest due to the Spurs playing four games in five nights. Splitter responded with 25 points and 10 boards on 11-of-13 shooting, and has scored in double digits in three straight games. He’s not a must-own player at this point, but should be watched closely from here on out.



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11. Danilo Gallinari Abuses Knicks



Gallinari is balling after a slow start and torched the Knicks, his former team, for a career-high 37 points to go along with 11 rebounds on Saturday. He should have a big year the rest of the way for the Nuggets and should be in all starting lineups going forward.



12. Richard Hamilton Ready To Rock



Rip Hamilton had 20 points on Saturday and has quietly scored in double figures in every game he’s played in this year, except for the first one of the season, when he scored just six points. He’s not doing much outside of scoring, but is getting over his groin injury and should continue to get better from here on out. If he’s available in your league, grab him. The Bulls play four times in each of the next three weeks.



13. Dorell Wright Gaining Confidence



Wright had 18 points, five boards and four 3-pointers on Friday, and is averaging 14.5 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.5 3-pointers over his last six games. His season got off to a shaky start, but the confidence is coming back and he should be owned in all leagues. The Warriors only play three times in each of the next three weeks, so weigh your options carefully when setting lineups. The Warriors’ schedule of the second half is great, so trading for Wright, or other Warriors, in the next couple weeks makes a lot of sense.



14. Anthony Morrow Could Be Ready For A Run



Morrow had a couple real bad games last week, but has hit double figures in eight of his last 10 games and had 19 points, five boards and three 3-pointers on Sunday. He’s coming off the bench for the Nets, but with Damion James out indefinitely after more foot surgery, Morrow should get a lot of minutes. And while we’re talking about the Nets, MarShon Brooks scored 20 points again on Sunday, and should be owned in all leagues.



Bonus: Shaun Livingston played 39 minutes in another start on Sunday (Stephen Jackson off the bench), scoring 10 points (3-of-7 FGs, 4-of-4 FTs) with five rebounds, three assists, two steals and three turnovers. The Bucks have won two straight since Scott Skiles gave Livingston a major role as a starter, so he might not go back to the bench for at least a couple more games. Injuries are a big concern and with Jackson and Mike Dunleavy back in action, it should only be a matter of time before he's back on the bench. Just keep an eye on Livingston.



15. Injury Report



Here we go.



Dirk Nowitzki – knee – Shut down until Sunday. Bench him, and give Lamar Odom a look.

Dwyane Wade – ankle – Sat again on Sunday and there’s no word on when he’ll play. Bench for now.

Chris Paul – hamstring – Appears close to a return, but only 3 games. Start him at your own risk.

Derrick Rose – toe – Feels close and Bulls have 4 games. Think about starting him, despite risk.

Carmelo Anthony – wrist – Played through it on Saturday, but iffy for next couple games.

Stephen Curry – ankle – Struggled on Friday, but appears to be good to go – for now.

Eric Gordon – knee – Click on his name for a cryptic blurb. I’d bench him for now.

Roy Hibbert – nose – Broke nose Sunday, but played well in spite of it. Start him.

Andrea Bargnani – calf – Has missed 6 straight, but I’m guessing he’s back Tuesday.

Spencer Hawes – achilles – Game-time decision for Monday, and I’m leaning toward starting him.

Tim Duncan – rest – Should be fine for this week and Spurs play four games.

Rajon Rondo – wrist – He’s missed two straight, but could return Monday vs. Magic.

Joakim Noah – ankle – Missed Saturday’s game, iffy for Monday. My guess is he’ll play.

Luol Deng – wrist – Injured in Saturday’s game, but guessing he plays on Monday.

Gerald Wallace – finger – Missed Saturday’s game but could play against Sacto on Monday.

Ray Allen – ankle – Not much swelling, sounds likely to give it a go on Monday.

Hedo Turkoglu – back spasms – Missed Friday, worth roll of dice with 5 games.

Arron Afflalo – groin – Sounds likely for Wednesday, but Nuggets only have three games.

Marcus Thornton – thigh – Left his last game with injury, just 3 games this week. Bench him.

D.J. Augustin – foot – Will miss at least three more days, so best to bench him.

Rodney Stuckey – groin – Had 28 on Saturday, but says groin will nag him all year. I’d play him.

Nikola Vucevic – quad – Doubtful for Monday, useless if Hawes is back anyway.

Kirk Hinrich – shoulder – Should be back sometime this week, but not a great fantasy option.

Tristan Thompson – ankle – Scored 16 on Saturday, X-rays negative. Too inconsistent to start right now.

Rudy Fernandez – achilles – Andre Miller is a nice play for as long as Rudy is out.

Ben Gordon – shoulder – No word on his status for Week 5, but I’m guessing he plays.

Daniel Gibson – personal – Guessing he’s back in action this week.

Baron Davis – back – Could be starting for Knicks by the end of week. Pick him up.

Manu Ginobili – hand – Still looking at mid-February, but might be time to grab him.

Brook Lopez – foot – Targeting mid-February, probably time to grab him.

Zach Randolph – knee – Also targeting mid-February, so time to think about grabbing him.

Vince Carter – foot – Iffy for Monday, I’d bench him until you see him play.

Jose Juan Barea – ankle – Sat out over the weekend, not worth starting him in fantasy.

Michael Beasley – foot – Was out over the weekend, role unknown when he returns.

Iman Shumpert – cramps – I think he’s fine and worth starting with 4 games until All-Star break.

Markieff Morris – flu – Should be ready to start in 4 games this week. Weigh options carefully.

John Salmons – flu – Iffy for Monday, Francisco Garcia will play well if Salmons is out.

Chuck Hayes – shoulder – Due back in about a week, and worth a pickup if you need a big man.

Josh Howard – quad – Was out again on Saturday, don’t use him until you see him on the court.

 

[HacheMan]

John Wall Building Momentum

We’re four weeks into this absurdly dense NBA season, and vexing new conundrums are surfacing in the world of fantasy hoops every week. For instance: Chris Paul missed all five games last week with a hamstring injury that initially seemed mild, Dirk Nowitzki – who has averaged 79 games played the last 12 seasons – has been shut down for at least four games to improve conditioning, and Dwyane Wade has already missed more games this year (seven) than he has in each of the last three seasons.

The bottom line: It’s a strange, unpredictable, injury-ravaged NBA world these days, and as always, the Stew now attempts to bring clarity to some key situations across the league. Let’s begin:

Is John Wall officially going berserk? At long last, we can answer that question in the affirmative. After averaging just 12.8 ppg on 34.3 percent shooting in his first 11 games, Wall has posted 24.4 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 8.4 rpg, 1.2 spg and 1.2 bpg in his last five. He’s still shooting just 40.9 percent during that stretch and has yet to hit a three this season (0-of-8 so far), but a player many people drafted in the second round is finally beginning to return appropriate value.

Dorell Wright is playing better, but should we really be that excited? During his current six-game run, Wright has averaged 14.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg and 2.5 3s, numbers that compare favorably to last season’s breakout of 16.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg and 2.4 3s. However, Wright’s assists are still down during this streak (1.0 apg as opposed to 3.0 last season), and the rest of his recent stats (1.0 spg, 0.3 bpg, 1.0 TOs) reflect a player who’s still considerably less involved than he was last year. In addition to shooting less (10.3 FG attempts per game in his last six as opposed to 14.0 per game last season), Wright is shooting outside more: 58.1 percent (36-of-62) of his recent shot attempts have come from three-point range. It’s good news that Wright is hitting his threes (and therefore scoring more), but there’s still no reason to expect a sudden return to last season’s all-around productivity.

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Why is Gerald Wallace so afraid of leaving home? In case you hadn’t noticed, Wallace – who missed Saturday’s game with a finger injury – is averaging an obscenely lopsided 20.1 ppg on 63.2 percent shooting at home, as opposed to 8.3 ppg on 29.6 percent shooting on the road. It’s actually an extreme exaggeration of a career-long trend (15.0 ppg at home, 11.8 on the road), and ultimately I would expect this odd imbalance to correct itself. In the meantime, I’m going to send the Blazers a DVD of Hoosiers so that Wallace can watch that one scene in which Gene Hackman explains to his team that the opponents’ court is the exact same dimensions as their home court.

Is the fun over for Kawhi Leonard? I was never really buying in to begin with – in part because he’s a rookie playing for Gregg Popovich and in part because it aggravated me how many times I put the “h” before the “w” before finally getting it right – but either way, there’s no overlooking the fact that Leonard has averaged just 4.7 ppg in his last three games. Granted, he did have a nice line Saturday night (eight points, 11 rebounds, a steal and a block), but Leonard isn’t a major factor in 3s (26.9 percent – 7-of-26 – on the season) and doesn’t consistently do much other than score a little bit, rebound a little bit and pick up some steals, meaning that you should be able to find more reliable options in standard-sized leagues.

Speaking of slightly disappointing swingmen, were our expectations too high for Paul George? It looks that way. Don’t get me wrong – I’m still a big believer in George’s potential, but at age 21 he’s just not ready to consistently handle high-volume stats. George has scored more than 15 points just three times all season, and aside from solid numbers in threes (1.6) and steals (1.2), he’s not explosive in any single counting stat (11.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.3 apg, 0.5 bpg). It’s also worth noting that in his best category (3s), George has actually been overachieving, hitting 49.0 percent from beyond the arc this year, including 28.6 percent (4-of-14) in his last six games. His scoring still could escalate as the season goes on, but it’s clearly time to lower our lofty preseason expectations and realize that George is just a low-end contributor at the moment.

Elton Brand: on the decline or still pretty useful? The answer lies somewhere in between. The 32-year-old is playing seven less minutes per game this season (35 last season, 28 this season), but his last eight games have been notably solid: 12.6 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.4 spg, 2.0 bpg. He’s prone to clunkers because the Sixers won’t play him much more than 20-25 minutes in lopsided games, but the defensive stats alone (1.3 spg, 1.6 bpg on the season) make the slowed-down version of Brand a viable option in most formats.

Was that James Johnson outburst on Saturday night just a mirage? It looks that way. There was certainly some cause for excitement (and a speculative waiver wire add) after Johnson’s 23-point, six-rebound, two-steal, four-block breakout on Saturday night, but he was back to his routine of nice D stats but not much else on Sunday (seven points, two rebounds, two assists, two steals and three blocks in 19 minutes). Johnson would be a very appealing waiver wire add if he somehow got his scoring together, but with just two games of more than eight points all season, there’s not much hope that he’s on the verge of figuring it out.

Productive player I would actively be attempting to trade: Nene. Quite simply, I’m worried about that lingering heel injury, which forced him to miss another game on Friday before returning to play 45 minutes (with 12 points, 13 rebounds, five assists, three steals and a block) on Saturday. To be clear, I realize that it’s not easy to bring yourself to shop him given the stats lately (14.1 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.1 bpg in his last seven games), but considering his shaky free throw shooting (61.8 percent on the season), high turnovers (a career-worst 3.1 per game) and lingering injury risk during a season that offers very little relief, now would be a wise time to see if another owner in your league is willing to trade you a productive player less likely to induce headaches going forward.

 

[HacheMan]

If only these guys were given more PT ...

By Brian McKitish
Special to ESPN.com



It was only a matter of time before injuries became the leading storyline of the 2011-12 fantasy hoops season. With a jam-packed 66-game schedule, we figured this time would come, and with high-profile players such as Dirk Nowitzki, Derrick Rose, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade all nursing injuries, fantasy owners have been left scrambling to find replacements. We're only about a quarter of the way through the season, so this recent wave of injuries likely is only the tip of the iceberg.

The best way to combat injuries to your fantasy lineup is to know exactly who benefits when injuries strike. And the best way to predict future success, in my opinion, is to analyze per-minute statistics. How would a particular player fare if he was given an opportunity at full-time starter's minutes (35 minutes per game)? Granted, we can't always expect a player to be as productive per minute in 35 minutes as he is in 20 minutes, but we at least have an idea of what he is capable of.

The Top 130

"Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2010-11 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses."1. LeBron James, SF, MIA (1)
2. Kevin Durant, SF, OKC (2)
3. Chris Paul, PG, LAC (3)
4. Kevin Love, PF, MIN (4)
5. Derrick Rose, PG, CHI (5)
6. Dwight Howard, C, ORL (6)
7. Kobe Bryant, SG, LAL (7)
8. Russell Westbrook, PG, OKC (8)
9. Pau Gasol, PF/C, LAL (9)
10. Carmelo Anthony, SF, NY (10)
11. Dwyane Wade, SG, MIA (12)
12. Josh Smith, PF/SF, ATL (11)
13. Monta Ellis, PG/SG, GS (14)
14. Deron Williams, PG, NJ (13)
15. Al Jefferson, C/PF, UTAH (15)
16. Kyle Lowry, PG, HOU (16)
17. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, POR (17)
18. Stephen Curry, PG/SG, GS (18)
19. Andrew Bynum, C, LAL (21)
20. Rudy Gay, SF, MEM (22)
21. Amare Stoudemire, C/PF, NY (19)
22. Blake Griffin, PF, LAC (23)
23. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, DAL (20)
24. Ty Lawson, PG, DEN (24)
25. Marc Gasol, C, MEM (27)
26. Rajon Rondo, PG, BOS (25)
27. Andre Iguodala, SF/SG, PHI (26)
28. Steve Nash, PG, PHO (29)
29. Danilo Gallinari, SF/PF, DEN (28)
30. John Wall, PG, WSH (34)
31. Ricky Rubio, PG, MIN (30)
32. Chris Bosh, PF/C, MIA (31)
33. JaVale McGee, C, WSH (32)
34. Paul Pierce, SF/SG, BOS (33)
35. Joe Johnson, SG/SF, ATL (35)
36. Marcin Gortat, C, PHO (36)
37. David Lee, PF/C, GS (37)
38. Greg Monroe, PF/C, DET (39)
39. Brandon Jennings, PG, MIL (42)
40. Kevin Martin, SG, HOU (38)
41. James Harden, SG, OKC (43)
42. Andrew Bogut, C, MIL (44)
43. Marcus Thornton, SG, SAC (41)
44. Andrea Bargnani, C/PF, TOR (40)
45. Danny Granger, SF, IND (45)
46. Jrue Holiday, PG, PHI (46)
47. Luol Deng, SF, CHI (47)
48. Gerald Wallace, SF/PF, POR (48)
49. Ryan Anderson, PF, ORL (56)
50. Paul Millsap, PF, UTAH (52)
51. Roy Hibbert, C, IND (49)
52. DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, SAC (50)
53. Mike Conley, PG, MEM (60)
54. Nene Hilario, C/PF, DEN (53)
55. Kyrie Irving, PG, CLE (58)
56. Jose Calderon, PG, TOR (51)
57. Kris Humphries, PF, NJ (66)
58. Tyreke Evans, PG/SG, SAC (54)
59. Eric Gordon, SG, NO (61)
60. Carlos Boozer, PF, CHI (62)
61. Tony Parker, PG, SA (69)
62. Raymond Felton, PG, POR (63)
63. Jarrett Jack, PG/SG, NO (65)
64. Ray Allen, SG, BOS (55)
65. Tyson Chandler, C, NY (68)
66. Jeff Teague, PG, ATL (74)
67. Stephen Jackson, SG/SF, MIL (57)
68. Joakim Noah, C/PF, CHI (71)
69. D.J. Augustin, PG, CHA (67)
70. Andray Blatche, PF, WSH (72)
71. Wesley Matthews, SG/SF, POR (64)
72. Jason Terry, SG, DAL (70)
73. Spencer Hawes, C, PHI (73)
74. Serge Ibaka, C/PF, OKC (59)
75. Anderson Varejao, PF/C, CLE (77)
76. Chauncey Billups, PG/SG, LAC (79)
77. Iman Shumpert, PG, NY (86)
78. Darren Collison, PG, IND (76)
79. Kevin Garnett, PF, BOS (78)
80. Antawn Jamison, PF, CLE (81)
81. Dorell Wright, SF, GS (88)
82. Hedo Turkoglu, SF, ORL (82)
83. DeAndre Jordan, C, LAC (90)
84. Al Harrington, PF, DEN (85)
85. Caron Butler, SF, LAC (87)
86. Luis Scola, PF, HOU (83)
87. Tim Duncan, PF/C, SA (89)
88. Nicolas Batum, SF, POR (91)
89. Channing Frye, PF/C, PHO (80)
90. David West, PF, IND (92)
91. Paul George, SF/SG, IND (93)
92. DeMar DeRozan, SG, TOR (84)
93. Samuel Dalembert, C, HOU (113)
94. Kemba Walker, PG, CHA (97)
95. Gerald Henderson, SG, CHA (98)
96. Nick Young, SG, WSH (102)
97. Brandon Knight, PG/SG, DET (110)
98. Boris Diaw, PF/SF/C, CHA (75)
99. Emeka Okafor, C, NO (101)
100. Jameer Nelson, PG, ORL (104)
101. Manu Ginobili, SG, SA (105)
102. Jason Kidd, PG, DAL (96)
103. Mario Chalmers, PG, MIA (106)
104. Elton Brand, PF, PHI (107)
105. Rodney Stuckey, PG/SG, DET (114)
106. Byron Mullens, C, CHA (108)
107. Lou Williams, PG/SG, PHI (125)
108. Carlos Delfino, SF/SG, MIL (109)
109. Jamal Crawford, SG/PG, POR (100)
110. Andre Miller, PG, DEN (111)
111. Trevor Ariza, SF/SG, NO (NR)
112. Jared Dudley, SF/SG, PHO (95)
113. Chris Kaman, C, NO (94)
114. Amir Johnson, PF/C, TOR (103)
115. MarShon Brooks, SG, NJ (122)
116. Devin Harris, PG, UTAH (99)
117. Michael Beasley, SF/PF, MIN (116)
118. Tony Allen, SG, MEM (118)
119. Arron Afflalo, SG, DEN (119)
120. Tyrus Thomas, PF, CHA (120)
121. Ben Gordon, SG, DET (121)
122. Anthony Morrow, SG/SF, NJ (115)
123. Shawn Marion, SF/PF, DAL (123)
124. Tayshaun Prince, SF, DET (NR)
125. Zach Randolph, PF, MEM (127)
126. Kawhi Leonard, PF, SA (124)
127. Marvin Williams, SF, ATL (NR)
128. Thaddeus Young, SF/PF, PHI (128)
129. Jason Richardson, SG, ORL (129)
130. George Hill, PG/SG, IND (NR)


To help combat the injury bug that's sure to follow fantasy owners all season, I've compiled a list of players who have been ultra-productive on a per-minute basis, and would have considerable value if an increase in playing time were on the horizon.
Players like Kemba Walker, Byron Mullens and Brandon Knight would have been on this list a few weeks ago, but it appears Charlotte head coach Paul Silas and Detroit head coach Lawrence Frank have beaten me to the punch.

Per minute warriors


The following players are already owned in most fantasy formats due to their impressive per-minute production, but how much more valuable could they be if injury opened the door for increased playing time for them?
Lou Williams, SG/PG, Sixers (MPG: 24.7, Per 35 Minutes: 21.9 points, 5.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 2.2 3-pointers)
Anyone who owned Williams during the 2009-10 season knows just how valuable the 25-year-old can be in a starter's role. In 38 career starts (all during the '09-10 season), Sweet Lou posted 15.7 points, 4.3 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.3 3-pointers with terrific efficiency from both the floor and the line. Injuries thwarted what should have been his breakout campaign, and when the Sixers drafted Jrue Holiday the following season, Lou was demoted back to his more natural role as a sixth man who provides instant offense off the bench. He's settled into his Jason Terry-esque role quite nicely this season, and while he's already owned in 100 percent of ESPN leagues, he'd get a significant bump in value if Holiday, Jodie Meeks or Andre Iguodala were to succumb to injury.
Al Harrington, PF, Nuggets (MPG: 25.5, Per 35 Minutes: 21.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 2.4 3-pointers)
Back in the mid-to-late '90s, before the Internet made it easy to scout high school basketball prospects, there were limited opportunities to see future NCAA and NBA stars in action. That is, unless you happened to live in central Jersey and had a chance to attend the PrimeTime Shootout every year in Trenton. Originally a regional tournament featuring the best teams in the Northeast, the PrimeTime Shootout eventually became a national event featuring high school mega stars such as LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Josh Smith and Carmelo Anthony. The best high school player I saw back in the '90s was Camden's DeJuan Wagner, who was simply unstoppable, but the second best had to be St. Patrick's Al Harrington. I mention this not only to reminisce about the glory days, but also to illustrate that Harrington has always been an electric scorer. He was doing it as a 17- and 18-year-old in St. Patrick's green, and he's still doing it as a 31-year-old in Nuggets blue. Ranking 59th on our Player Rater thanks to his scoring, steals and 3-point shooting, Harrington is taking advantage of the void left by Wilson Chandler and J.R. Smith in Denver. He'll continue to be a quality fantasy option despite the fact he's playing just 25.5 minute per game, and has some serious upside potential if more minutes head his way at any point this season.
George Hill, PG/SG, Pacers (MPG: 25.6, Per 35 Minutes: 14.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.1 steals, 1.5 3-pointers)
Owned in just 33 percent of ESPN leagues, Hill has flown under the fantasy radar during his first season in Indiana despite posting 10.5 points, 1.6 steals and 1.1 3-pointers while shooting an efficient 48.5 percent from the floor and 86.2 percent from the line. Hill's inconsistency on a nightly basis (which is directly related to his playing time) makes him less attractive right now, but he's still a borderline fantasy option in standard leagues thanks to his high steal rate. And as you can see by his per-35-minute numbers, he'd be quite a fantasy force if given more playing time.
Leandro Barbosa, SG, Raptors (MPG: 22.8, Per 35 Minutes: 19.0 points, 0.8 steals, 1.2 3-pointers)
Thanks to a recent bump in playing time, Barbosa's ownership has picked up in recent weeks as he's posted 16.0 points and 1.0 3-pointers in 27.4 minutes over his past five games. Aptly nicknamed the Brazilian Blur due to his speed and quickness, Barbosa won't score as much once Andrea Bargnani returns from an injured calf, but remember that he also plays behind the oft-injured Jose Calderon, as well. Just remember that Barbosa's value is fairly limited to scoring, steals and 3-pointers, as he is not much of a rebounder or assist man.
Carlos Delfino, SG/SF, Bucks (MPG 30.5, Per 35 Minutes: 10.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 2.0 3-pointers)
With Mike Dunleavy on the shelf, Delfino's playing time has picked up of late, and while he has struggled to be a consistent scoring threat, he has proven to be one of the league's best in terms of steals and 3-point shooting. Delfino is not going to be a world-beater in any category other than steals and 3s, but he should be on rosters in most formats simply due to the fact he's so productive in two of the scarcest fantasy categories.
Nicolas Batum, SF, Trail Blazers (MPG: 25.6, Per 35 Minutes: 15.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 1.1 blocks, 1.9 3-pointers)
It's not a big secret that Batum has tremendous upside whenever he's able to earn minutes, but I thought I'd mention it here just in case anyone was sleeping on his potential. One look at his per-minute numbers should sell you on his potential value, particularly given his ability to provide the rare combination of blocks and 3-pointers.

Put me in, Coach


The following players have shown glimpses of potential in limited minutes and could have considerable value later in the season if they can earn increased playing time.
Markieff Morris, PF, Suns (MPG: 21.0, Per 35 Minutes: 12.6 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 0.8 blocks, 1.8 3-pointers)
Morris hasn't fared well since being inserted in the Suns' starting lineup last week, but I still believe in his talent despite the recent setbacks. His game reminds me a bit of Wilson Chandler's, and his per-minute numbers certainly support the comparison. I know it's still early yet, but the 6-9 Suns are on the outside looking in at the Western Conference playoff race, and we will be seeing a lot of Morris as the season progresses if they continue to struggle.
Tiago Splitter, PF/C, Spurs (MPG: 20.8, Per 35 Minutes: 14.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.5 blocks)
Splitter showed us what he could do with extended minutes when he erupted for 25 points and 10 rebounds in Tim Duncan's absence Saturday. With tremendous footwork and touch around the basket, Splitter is shooting 62.0 percent from the floor on the season. His steady play should lead to increased minutes, and he's looking like a great speculative addition to fantasy rosters given the age and injury problems that the Spurs will continue to face during this condensed season.
Tristan Thompson, PF, Cavaliers (MPG: 18.3, Per 35 Minutes: 15.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.1 blocks)
He's still an extremely raw talent, but wow does this 20-year-old have game. Fellow rookie Kyrie Irving has been phenomenal, but Thompson has flown under the radar due to the lack of playing time. Judging by his per-minute numbers, Thompson projects to be a double-double threat with plenty of blocks once he refines his game. The 6-9 Cavaliers are currently in the playoff hunt in the East, but if they fall out of contention, they'll surely be looking to give Thompson an extended look in the second half.
Taj Gibson, PF, Bulls (MPG: 19.4, Per 35 Minutes: 12.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, 0.7 steals, 2.5 blocks)
Of all the players on this list, Gibson is the one I'm most confident in, given the injury history of frontcourt mates Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah. We've seen Gibson have spurts of value as an injury replacement in the past, and this year would be no different

 

[HacheMan]

Dose: Down Goes Deng

Well, Week 5 is off and running and injuries remain the top story, as Dwyane Wade sounds doubtful for Tuesday, Derrick Rose was back for the Bulls and MarShon Brooks was a surprise scratch on Monday with a sore Achilles. Here are the top stories from Monday’s action and news.



The NBA Season Pass is up and running, so check it out! Weekly projections and rankings, exclusive live chats, the schedule grid and breakdown, customizable scoring, and much more is all there. Do you miss football already? Didn’t get into enough hoops leagues? Check out SnapDraft, where you can draft a new team every night and win some cash.



Magic Hit All-time Low



The Magic got 18 points, 14 rebounds, a steal and block from Dwight Howard, and 11 rebounds from reserve Glen Davis, but that was the only good news to report from Boston regarding Orlando on Monday. The Magic were trounced 87-56 by the injured Celtics and hit a grand total of 16 field goals in the loss. The 56 points set a team record for futility, topping a 57-point effort in 1996. They also committed 25 turnovers, 20 of which came in the second half, while Hedo Turkoglu, who returned from a back injury, scored seven points as the team’s second-leading scorer. Previously smoking-hot Ryan Anderson missed all eight of his shots and failed to score. The good news is they have four more games this week to make up for Monday’s disaster, but this is not the way the Magic, or their fantasy owners, saw this week kicking off. Things have to get better on Tuesday at Indiana, right?



Derrick Rose Returns For Bulls, But Luol Deng’s Wrist Is A Mess



Derrick Rose was finally back in action after missing four straight games with a toe injury. He hit 9-of-16 shots and two 3-pointers for 22 points, five rebounds, eight assists and a steal in a win over the Nets. The injury could realistically linger all season, but at least he’s back for now. If he makes it through the week and you want to sell high, it’s not a bad idea. Meanwhile, Luol Deng will be out for about a week (at least) with a wrist injury that could even require surgery. Ronnie Brewer started in his place and had 11 points and five rebounds in 27 minutes, but Richard Hamilton might be the big winner in Deng’s injury. Rip had 22 points, four boards, 10 assists and two 3-pointers and should be picked up in all leagues given Deng’s iffy status. Joakim Noah had 16 points and 10 rebounds, and this could be a sign that it’s time to sell high.



Anthony Morrow Starts For Nets, MarShon Brooks Hurt



Anthony Morrow started in place of MarShon Brooks (Achilles) and scored 15 points. He didn’t hit a 3-pointer, and Brooks says he’ll be back on Wednesday. Morrow looks like a safe add again, especially with DeShawn Stephenson struggling, and Damion James out indefinitely due to another foot surgery. Deron Williams had 16 & 10, while Jordan Farmar came off the bench for 22 points and three 3-pointers in 32 minutes. I don’t trust Farmar much, but he’s worth keeping an eye on. He’d scored 13 in each of his previous two games, but had just 5 & 6 in the two games prior.



Rashard Lewis Starting Again For Wiz



Rashard Lewis was back in the starting five for the Wizards, who looked dreadful again in a blowout loss to the Sixers. Lewis had 11 points and six rebounds in 27 minutes, and is at least worth a look now that he’s off the bench. Flip Saunders’ job appears to be in serious jeopardy, as the Wizards simply don’t look like they know how to work as a team.



Monday’s Big Lines



Kyle Lowry had his second triple-double with 16 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists, three steals and a 3-pointer on 4-of-13 shooting. He’s having a monster season for the Rockets and I see no reason to sell-high on him.



Kevin Love had a career-high 39 points on 13-of-19 shooting, hitting all five of his 3-point attempts and 8-of-10 free throws, while chipping in with 12 rebounds. Ricky Rubio (12 assists) loves finding Love open from downtown, and this looks like a fantasy match made in heaven. Nikola Pekovic played just 10 minutes for two points and one rebound, and it doesn’t look like the Wolves are ready to start him at center. Rookie Derrick Williams made his first start and had 11 points and seven rebounds in 37 minutes, and could be worth grabbing with Michael Beasley out for another week with his foot injury. However, Wes Johnson was out due to illness on Monday, which could have been the reason for Williams’ start. Just keep an eye on Williams and think about grabbing him if he sticks in the starting five.



Tony Parker played through a sore back and had 20 points and a career-high 17 assists on 8-of-14 shooting, while Tim Duncan returned from a night off with 28 points and seven rebounds in the Spurs' win over the Hornets. Kawhi Leonard started, but failed to score in just seven minutes. There are no reports of an injury to the rookie, so it looks like he just got “popped” by his coach.



Jarrett Jack had 26 points, six rebounds, nine assists and a 3-pointer on 12-of-22 shooting in the loss to the Spurs, and is a must-start point guard in four-game weeks. Trevor Ariza had another nice line of 18 points, six boards five assists, three steals and two 3-pointers on 7-of-13 shooting, and is another player who should be flying off waiver wires right now. And with the latest news that Eric Gordon is going to need another three weeks to get his knee in order, Jack and Ariza (and Marco Belinelli) should all continue to get plenty of run going forward. Carl Landry had 18 points and eight rebounds in 32 minutes off the bench, while Chris Kaman had six points and four boards in just 14 minutes. Jason Smith started, and it looks like these three are locked into an unpredictable timeshare for the Hornets until further notice.



The Hawks seem to be surviving life without Al Horford thus far and got big lines from Joe Johnson, Jeff Teague, Josh Smith and Zaza Pachulia, who started at center last night. Johnson had 28 points, Teague posted 15 points, six rebounds and five assists, Smoove added a monster line of 19 points, 13 rebounds, four assists, a steal, three blocks and a 3-pointer, and Pachulia added nine points and 14 boards in 28 minutes. Pachulia will need to continue to start to be worth starting in fantasy leagues, so keep an eye on him. Atlanta has won seven of eight games since losing Horford and it will be interesting to see if they can keep this up. It all hinges on the play of Smith, in my opinion, and he’s been a beast since Horford dropped.



Shawn Marion looked like his former self on Monday with 29 points and four 3-pointers in 31 minutes, while Lamar Odom started for Dirk Nowitzki and had 11 points, three boards, five assists and two 3-pointers in 28 minutes. Dirk should be back for the Mavs on Sunday, so Odom’s run should be a short one. Ian Mahinmi had 17 points, nine boards and three blocks off the bench, and it’s still possible he’ll replace Brendan Haywood as the starter at some point. He had scored in single figures in six of his previous seven games before Monday’s explosion, so just keep an eye on him.



Gerald Wallace played through his sprained middle finger and somehow hit 9-of-12 shots for 20 points, eight rebounds, two steals, a block and a 3-pointer in the Blazers' win over the Kings. Nicolas Batum didn’t fare so well, failing to score in 19 minutes. However, Marcus Camby tweaked his groin and lasted just 13 minutes, so Batum could be in line for more minutes and production again real soon. Jamal Crawford heated up in Batum’s stead and had 26 points and two 3-pointers.



Stephen Curry’s ankle injury is finally under control and he had 18 points, six rebounds, five assists, three steals and two 3-pointers in the Warrirors' heart-breaking loss to Memphis, while Monta Ellis had 20 points, four rebounds, five assists, two steals, a block and three 3-pointers on Monday. The return of Curry has limited Nate Robinson, who played just 12 minutes for five points and six dimes. Dorell Wright played 34 minutes but scored just eight points, but I would keep rolling him out there as long as the minutes are there.<!--RW-->



Stephen Jackson Scoreless Monday



Stephen Jackson came off the bench again on Monday and failed to score, missing his only shot despite playing 28 minutes. Shaun Livingston started and played 17 minutes, Carlos Delfino scored just five points in 20 minutes, and Mike Dunleavy had 17 points in 31 minutes. As usual, the Bucks are too deep at shooting guard and both forward spots, and these guys will all be a roll of the dice from night to night. Jackson’s situation is especially concerning since he’s not getting along with Scott Skiles, but his value is too low to trade him right now, and he's too good a player to drop in 12-team leagues.



Markieff Morris Starts For Suns



Markieff Morris started again for the Suns on Monday and had seven points, 11 rebounds and a steal in 29 minutes. He hit just 2-of-9 shots, but the minutes were there and should be going forward. I still think he’s worth holding in many leagues, if you have someone to drop.



Five Games In Week 6



The Grizzlies pulled off a huge comeback to beat the Warriors Monday and got 20 points and nine assists from Mike Conley, 12 points and eight boards from Tony Allen, 15 points, 12 boards and a block from Marc Gasol, and 23 points, nine boards, four assists, three steals and two blocks from Rudy Gay. That marks seven straight wins for Memphis, who is in first place in the Southwest with a 10-6 record. They also have five games next week, so the aforementioned players look like must-starts in Week 6, while Marreese Speights and O.J. Mayo will also be worth a look. Speights had eight points and four boards in 24 minutes, while Mayo had 11 points, missing all five of his 3-point attempts.



The Pistons also play five times next week, making guys like Tayshaun Prince, Jonas Jerebko and Rodney Stuckey look like interesting pickups. Prince only had nine points on Monday, but will bounce back, while Stuckey, who is playing through a groin injury, added 12 points in a loss to the Thunder. Jerebko added 11 points, five boards, two steals and a three and could be on the verge of replacing Ben Wallace in the starting lineup. Ben Gordon was out again on Monday with a shoulder injury and is very iffy for Wednesday, and Stuckey's groin is still not right, making him a little iffy for the rest of the week. Austin Daye finally saw some run and had nine points, seven rebounds and a 3-pointer on 3-of-10 shooting in 20 minutes. If he gets minutes the rest of the week, he’ll also be worth a deep-league look with five games next week.



Injury Report



Dwyane Wade sounds unlikely for the Heat on Tuesday with his sprained ankle and remains day-to-day. I wish we knew when he was going to play again, especially since he’s planted in several of my lineups again this week.



Chris Paul’s hamstring is reportedly feeling better and he’s a game-time decision for Wednesday against the Lakers. My gut says he’ll play for the Clips, but my gut isn’t a doctor.



Carmelo Anthony says he’ll play for the Knicks on Tuesday despite a bad wrist and being banged up in general, and he should remain in lineups until further notice.



Andrea Bargnani sounds like he could return from his calf injury for the Raps on Tuesday.



Baron Davis has started practicing with the Knicks and is targeting Saturday for his debut. His minutes are going to be limited starting out, so don’t expect any miracles from him until he’s got a week under his belt.



Mickael Pietrus (shoulder), Rajon Rondo (wrist) and Ray Allen (ankle) were all out for Monday’s romp over the Magic. The C’s are off until Thursday, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Rondo and Allen back for that one.



Marcus Thornton was out again for the Kings with his quad injury on Monday, which allowed Isaiah Thomas to go for 11 points and eight assists in 28 minutes. Thornton’s status for the week remains in doubt, while owners in deep leagues should keep an eye on Thomas.



Arron Afflalo (groin) and Rudy Fernandez (achilles) are game-time decisions for the Nuggets on Wednesday.



Josh Howard (quad) is practicing again for the Jazz, but is too unreliable to use in weekly leagues until he proves he can stay on the court.



Kirk Hinrich (shoulder) is targeting Wednesday for a return for the Hawks, but will come off the bench behind Teague.

 

[HacheMan]

Kobe's career arc

Who will get the minutes? It’s a simple question that rarely has a simple answer.

Coaches are constantly tinkering and toying with their rotations. Sometimes it has to with injuries and in other instances, it’s a result of ineffective play from a certain player. The impact this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Every Tuesday for the rest of the season, I’ll explore a certain aspect of half the league’s rotations while attempting to get inside coaches’ heads. The idea isn’t to tell you what Kevin Love and LeBron James are going to do -- it’s to decipher how much burn fringe players are going to get.

Here’s last week’s look at the East. Let’s kick this week off in Hollywood, where an all-time great is currently staving off a decline.

LAKERS
Position: Shooting guard
Obviously, there is no position battle here. The question is if Kobe Bryant can sustain his current usage.

For any mere mortal, the answer is an emphatic no. And even for Kobe, the safe bet is no. He is 33, is in his 16th NBA season and underwent offseason surgery on his right knee. He gets pregame injections in his right (shooting) wrist and no one knows how long his German experimental procedure will last. We’re all aware of the condensed schedule due to the lockout.

Still, coach Mike Brown is burning up Kobe. He’s playing 38.2 minutes per game, up from 33.9 a year ago. Kobe is taking 24.8 shots per game, the most he’s jacked since the 2005-06 season. He’s going to the foul line 8.1 times per game, his highest rate since the 2006-07 season. In other words, Kobe’s career arc and usage is bumping back up despite his age and physical issues. It’s just not sustainable. Look for some games off and a reduction in minutes out of pure necessity later in the season.

BLAZERS
Position: Small forward
Nicolas Batum has to be among the most underutilized players in the NBA. His per-36 minute numbers this season are 15.5 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.9 treys, and 1.1 blocks. He’s also a plus defender.

Batum’s minutes are tied to Marcus Camby’s health. When Camby is out, LaMarcus Aldridge can kick to the center spot and Gerald Wallace can move up to power forward. Batum logged 41 minutes and then 32 minutes in two games that Camby missed last week.

Usually, it’s a poor strategy to hold a player while waiting for an injury. But in this case, it’s a strong play. Camby is injured so much -- he went down with a groin strain Monday night -- that Batum is going to get plenty of chances. His blocks/3-pointers combo is unique enough to hold.

CLIPPERS
Position: Sixth man
Mo Williams has proven that he is a fantasy must-start anytime Chris Paul (hamstring) is out. In the last three games, Williams is averaging 25.6 points, 3.6 assists, 2.6 3-pointers and 1.3 steals in 31.0 minutes per game. Paul appears headed for a game-time call on Wednesday.

It’s another story, however, when Williams, Paul, Chauncey Billups and Randy Foye are all healthy. When that has been the case this season, Williams is averaging just 23.8 minutes per game. Barring a trade, Williams will just be a roster stash/deep-league option once Paul gets back in action. Williams is a plus-NBA player, but there just aren’t enough minutes to go around.

GRIZZLIES
Position: Power forward
I was right about Marreese Speights coming to Memphis and immediately running away with the starting job. Speights has started eight straight games and averaged 24.0 minutes per. The problem is that he’s a jump-shooting big that doesn’t block. For a fringe talent, that’s really hard to succeed with.

Speights is averaging just 8.8 points, 7.1 rebounds and 0.3 blocks while shooting 43.9 percent. He’ll get hot with his jumper every five games or so, but that’s not enough to trust on a nightly basis. We can move on, especially with Zach Randolph (knee) due back in a few weeks.

HORNETS
Position: Power forward
Despite the mess at the “four,” Emeka Okafor has held solid at the “five.” He’s started all 17 games and played at least 25 minutes in 13 of those. That leaves precious few minutes to split up between starter Jason Smith, Chris Kaman, Carl Landry and even Gustavo Ayon.

Smith is not a starting-caliber NBA talent, but he’s an energy guy that brings it every night. When Kaman gets going, he’s among the better raw scorers for 7-footers in the league. And Landry has shown an ability to be among the better sixth men around when given an opportunity. So, the only thing that makes sense for coach Monty Williams here is simple game flow.

Whoever gets hot is going to stay on the floor. That’s led to wildly unpredictable minutes between all four of his power forwards on a night-to-night basis. It’s a headache fantasy owners should simply avoid.

Editor’s Note: For exclusive columns, chats, pickup advice, weekly rankings and much more, check out the Season Pass!

JAZZ
Position: Point guard
Devin Harris’ fall from grace is ugly and confusing. He was a bonafide All-Star for the Nets in 2008-09, averaging 21.3 points, 6.9 assists, 3.4 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game. Now, just three years later, Harris is in a position battle with journeyman Earl Watson.

Over the last five games, Harris is averaging 7.0 points and 4.4 assists in 24.2 minutes. During that same span, Watson is averaging 5.2 points and 6.0 assists in 22.6 minutes. The main reason is that Harris is a scoring point guard that has lost all confidence in his ability to score.

The Jazz have now reportedly “made it known” that Harris is available in a trade. They have no long-term commitment to him and therefore no reason to play someone that doesn’t give them the best chance to win. Deep-leaguers can roster Watson as a timeshare emerges.

KINGS
Position: Small forward
John Salmons has started 17 games for the Kings this year. He’s averaging 7.1 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.8 assists on 34.5 percent shooting. The team is 6-11 in those games. Something has to give.

Coach Keith Smart made an interesting move on Monday night, starting Donte Greene at small forward thanks to Marcus Thornton’s thigh injury. I don’t think that will stick. Greene has been with the Kings for four years now and has never averaged more than 21.5 minutes in a season. He’s started 76 career games, but averaged just 9.0 points, 3.6 rebounds and shot 41.0 percent in those chances. Terrible production for a guy that stands 6’11.

There’s also no reason to think the Kings will roll with Francisco Garcia as a starter. Now 30, Garcia has had countless opportunities on bad Kings teams to establish himself as a must-start player for the franchise. He’s never been able to do it.

So where does that leave us? Perhaps Tyreke Evans at the “three” is the answer. Maybe Smart will eventually roll with a lineup of playmaking rookie point guard Isaiah Thomas, Thornton, Evans, Chuck Hayes and DeMarcus Cousins. Salmons, Garcia, Jimmer Fredette and Greene would all be bench players. It’s food for thought -- note that Thomas has played 20 minutes or more in six of his last eight games.

MAVERICKS
Position: Center
The injuries to Dirk Nowitzki (knee, rest) and Vince Carter (foot) have made a mess of this rotation. Once they both get healthy, guys like Lamar Odom and Delonte West will go back to really weak fantasy plays. But the epic battle between Brendan Haywood and Ian Mahinmi will rage on.

Over the last five games, Haywood is averaging 5.8 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.0 blocks in 24.6 minutes. Mahinmi is at 10.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 22.4 minutes. While Mahinmi is clearly the more explosive player, he’s still really raw at age 25. Coach Rick Carlisle isn’t just going to demote a veteran like Haywood that has been with the Mavs for three years.

The best play for fantasy owners is just to ignore the intermittent tantalizing lines Mahinmi puts up off the bench. This is a true timeshare that isn’t going anywhere.

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NUGGETS
Position: Shooting guard
Andre Miller doesn’t need a fountain of youth at age 35. He’s had the old man YMCA game his entire career.

Therefore, the issue with Miller isn’t his skill set or age. It’s his role. When Arron Afflalo (groin) is healthy, he’s the Nuggets’ starting shooting guard. Period. Coach George Karl loves Afflalo’s defensive presence and all-around floor game. And when Rudy Fernandez (Achilles) is healthy, he needs 22-25 minutes. The most we can expect out of Miller when everyone is healthy is 25-28 minutes.

THUNDER
Position: Power forward
Prior to Monday night, not much had changed with Serge Ibaka over the last two weeks. The Thunder clearly have no intention of giving him true starter’s minutes as the expense of Kendrick Perkins or Nick Collison. He’s averaging 24.9 minutes per game on the year.

However, Ibaka may have finally found a short-term opening as Collison went down with an ankle injury Monday night. Over the final 28 games of last year, Ibaka averaged 28.8 minutes per game. Those extra four minutes were enough for him to average 10.8 points, 8.8 rebounds and 3.0 blocks. In other words, top-30 fantasy numbers. We can still buy low on Ibaka as he can only go up.

ROCKETS
Position: Small forward
Since Chandler Parsons was promoted into the starting five 10 games ago, the Rockets are 8-2. He’s not going anywhere. The problem is that Parsons has fallen by the wayside in Houston’s offense. Despite playing 28.8 minutes over the last 10 games, he’s attempting just 7.8 shots per game. It’s the rare case of a highly athletic player getting major minutes, yet still not providing standard-sized owners with value.

SPURS
Position: Shooting guard
Kawhi Leonard started on Monday night, left with 4:50 remaining in the first quarter, and didn’t return until there was 1.4 seconds left in the game. The reason? Leonard’s inability to make outside shots and his overall limitations as an offensive player.

“I just wanted to give Gary (Neal) a chance to start (the second half),” coach Gregg Popovich said, “See if we could generate some offense.”

In his eight starts, Leonard is averaging a meager 7.5 points to go with 0.9 steals, 0.6 blocks and 0.6 treys. Manu Ginobili will be back at some point and Pop is clearly not prepared to treat his rookie as a true starter. We should be aiming higher.

SUNS
Position: Power forward
Since promoting Markieff Morris and Ronnie Price to the starting five, the Suns are 2-1. The two wins came at New York and at Boston. The loss was a narrow one at home to the Mavs. In other words, look for this new-look lineup to stick for now.

Channing Frye and Jared Dudley have no one to blame but themselves for their demotion. When Frye isn’t making shots, he’s not giving the Suns much of anything. Morris is a 3-point bomber in his own right, making 17-of-35 on the season despite playing just 21.5 minutes per game. He’s also a better rebounder and defender than Frye at 6’10/245.

Frye will certainly have some big games over the course of the season as a deadly shooter and capable shot-blocker. But the Suns have a younger, better model of him. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Markieff stick as the starter the rest of the way as part of a value-killing timeshare.

* Bonus note on the Suns: Ronnie Price is a third-string talent and Dudley is in the doghouse. So deep-leaguers need to watch the electric Shannon Brown, who would really be exciting if handed the starting shooting guard gig. Brown has played 25 minutes or more four times this year. In those games, he’s averaging 13.0 points, 1.2 steals and 1.2 3-pointers.

TIMBERWOLVES
Position: Center
There was some excitement last week when it looked like Nikola Pekovic might supplant Darko Milicic as the Wolves’ starting center. I’m not sure why.

Pekovic started 11 games a year ago, but averaged jus 9.8 points, 4.5 rebounds and 0.6 blocks. In order to get prized rookie Derrick Williams playing time at the “four” where they like him, Kevin Love needs to kick to the center spot often. And Milicic, as seen by his career block rate of 2.6 per 36 minutes, can be effective despite his wild inconsistency.

Once Michael Beasley gets back from his Darren McFadden-like foot injury, Brad Miller (knee) resurfaces, J.J. Barea (hamstring) sustains health and Martell Webster (back) gets going, it’s going to be even messier here. Pekovic and Milicic have no prayer at a breakout.

WARRIORS
Position: Small forward
Slowly but surely, Dorell Wright is finding a little groove. More importantly, rookie Klay Thompson isn’t ready yet and Brandon Rush has cooled off.

Over the last five games, Wright is averaging 12.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.6 treys in 32.0 minutes. That’s now the ceiling for him, but it’s sustainable. The Warriors certainly haven’t given up on Wright, playing him at least 30 minutes in eight of his 15 games and four of his last five. Lower expectations, but hold tight here.

 

[HacheMan]

Carmelo Anthony: Glue Guy

At least for one night Carmelo Anthony was a glue guy, and no I’m not sniffing glue. And no, I don’t expect to see any more of the one-point outings he had last night, and I admit I may have sniffed some glue following the 49ers loss this Sunday. I just can’t be sure about anything other than the Kyle Williams tattoo that I woke up with in my armpit.



Back to business though, upon learning that the cause and solution to all of the Knicks’ problems had gone 0-for-7 from the field with just one point on a technical free throw, I admittedly thought the round mound of slowing the ballgame down had suffered some sort of crisis. Then seeing the Knicks’ winning score, I couldn’t help but wondering if Anthony had been ejected only to see his team rally to win in spite of the guy holding their offense hostage with each successive jab step.



It was none of that, and all kidding aside it wasn’t all that surprising to see Melo take a big step back following his 10-of-30 shooting effort in Saturday’s loss to a Nuggets team he spurned for the media glitz of New York. Of course, this came after 61-of-172 (35%) stretch shooting the ball and a six-game losing streak. "Maybe I need to not take so many shots," he said after the symbolic loss. "Should I pass it more? Maybe I should take the blame for the games we've been losing (and the) offensive struggles.”



I’m not going to bore you with the complete history lesson, but the Knicks are in the bind that they are in because of Carmelo Anthony. His people stripped the team so he could get his contract extension with the side benefit of stroking his ego. Anthony, for everything he hasn’t proven in this league, joined a team that was previously winning and imposed his way of handling matters on the court despite the losing it bred. Saturday’s loss was the final proof the jury needed to see to determine that O.J. did it, and the folks that think he didn’t have a bunch of glue all over their nose.



And though the quotes were relayed to us as the words of a dejected man, we don’t know if he was truly being introspective or just passively defensive when he said that. Only he knows. It doesn’t matter though -- we will get the answer to that question on the court, because if he doesn’t make the necessary changes the Knicks will keep losing and the New York media might eat him for lunch.



So I wasn’t surprised to run the tape and see that Carmelo Anthony was a good offensive teammate last night. The game-plan was obvious from the get go. Anthony was going to defer. He held the ball like it was a hot potato and he put himself in the corner at times, literally. His seven field goal attempts came within the flow of the offense, and ironically he looked like a guy that was trying too hard to make the shot because he knew he’d only get a handful of them. He set off-ball screens to free other guys up, and he moved out of their space when it wasn’t his turn to stand there. His teammates responded by actually keeping their hands above their waists when making their cuts. They smiled and laughed as movements were easy. Things actually worked.



They started to resemble an NBA offense.



Maybe it was just one game. Maybe it was the Bobcats. Maybe he was tired of the white hot spotlight of the New York media breathing down his neck. But if you’re an Amare Stoudemire (18 points, eight rebounds, one block) owner, this stuff is important. The venerable Tommy Beer, a true basketball expert and solid Knicks guy, said that Stoudemire showed more explosion last night. Going to the tape I would agree, but he’s still taking too many jumpshots – which tells me he’s not fully back. None of that is going to matter if Melo is grinding the offense to a halt. Landry Fields and Iman Shumpert are both guys holding fantasy value right now, but they’re inconsistent. Their inconsistency, along with that of Toney Douglas and whoever else is going to play the PG position – will be tied to whether or not the Knicks run offensive sets as they did last night. The Knicks even got out and ran a little bit, and frankly there is absolutely no reason that Melo should be walking the ball across the half-court line at the 16 second mark. These are the things that owners need to watch for when assessing the Knicks. Even Anthony’s owners will shave off a few extra points if it means a better field goal percentage and a couple of extra assists per night.



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THE JACKSON FIVE



Tyson Chandler scored 20 points with a season-high 17 rebounds and a block in his abuse of B.J. Mullens, but the tougher fantasy decisions rest with Landry Fields and Iman Shumpert. Fields is on a nice little hot streak, and last night he scored 18 points on 6-of-12 shooting with four rebounds, five assists, two steals, two blocks and a three in 30 minutes. Meanwhile, Shumpert hit just 1-of-9 shots for three points, five boards, two assists, two steals, and a block in 25 minutes. Their four-game stretch is a microcosm of what each player represents right now, as Fields has been mostly steady and Shumpert has two nice games and two awful games. Here are their averages over that span:



Fields: 36 minutes, 15.8 points, 0.8 threes, 3.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, 53.3% FG, 57.1% FT, 2.5 turnovers (Round 6 value in 8-cat, Round 7 value in 9-cat)



Shumpert: 34 minutes, 11.3 points, 1.3 threes, 4.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 3.0 steals, 0.3 blocks, 36.4% FG, 80.0% FT, 2.8 turnovers (Round 4 value in 8-cat, Round 6 value in 9-cat)



As you can see, Shumpert is actually holding more value but his inconsistency along with Fields’ experience and recent play means that Fields could end up holding the starting shooting guard position when Baron Davis returns. Davis could debut tonight at Cleveland, but he’s going to be handled with kid gloves and provides neither the Knicks nor fantasy owners any guarantees. That said, if you have a need for point guard in any respect then hopefully you made the add a few days ago while he was still available. Look for Davis to come in and add some stability to the offense, but he’ll also steal touches from everybody when he’s on the court and isn’t afraid to jack up bad shots, either.



This leaves Shumpert, a hot add a few weeks ago, as somebody panicked owners might drop if/when news breaks that he will come off the bench. Given the strong valuations during a tough stretch for the rookie, I’ll be right there to pick him up. Davis isn’t a good bet to stay healthy and Shumpert will continue to improve as the year goes on. As for Fields, he’s certainly worth an add and looks a whole lot better in a functioning offense. I’d also look to sell Fields for just about anything I can get my hands on with Shumpert possibly overtaking him as the year goes on.



Of course, it all comes back to Melo. If he plays within the offense, then you can expect Amare to return somewhere close to form, Fields and Shumpert to both hold value, Tyson Chandler will continue to put up big lines, Baron Davis will be a low-end value guy, and maybe even Toney Douglas could make some noise. This is New York and Mike D’Antoni’s offense, but it’s Melo’s world and we’re all just pawns in it.


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CARMELO PART DEUX



Dwight Howard (14 points, nine rebounds) broke the Magic scoring record last night, and he was about as excited as John Boehner was listening to Obama talk during last night’s state of the union address. He talked about his time in Orlando in the past tense and I’m pretty sure he’s sick of talking out of the side of his mouth. He is gone one way or another. And the guy that can only hope it happens sooner rather than later is Jameer Nelson, who put up a now normal line of two points on 1-of-5 shooting and five assists. Howard has publicly discussed wanting to play with a top point guard (i.e. not Nelson), and Nelson just hasn’t been the same player after the vote of no faith. It isn’t helping that teams are following the Hawks’ playoff blueprint of letting Howard beat them while snuffing out most of his teammates on a given night. The Magic’s 12-5 record is a mirage, with one home win against the Lakers and road wins against the Blazers and Pacers as their only ‘good’ wins on their schedule. Meanwhile they’ve lost to the Thunder, Pistons, Bulls, Spurs, and Celtics. Things are going to get worse before they’re going to get better.



Ryan Anderson bounced back with Howard in some foul trouble, scoring 24 points with five threes and eight rebounds, and Hedo Turkoglu was the only other truly productive player with 11 points, three treys, and eight assists. As the offense is currently constructed, they are the only guys you can count on from night to night. Jason Richardson was awful with two points on 1-of-6 shooting and not much else, while J.J. Redick scored 15 points on 6-of-13 shooting (including a three) with three rebounds, two assists, a steal, and a block. I think a swap of roles here could be helpful for both players, though I wonder if Richardson is pushing his knee too hard in hopes of holding his starting job.



TOE TALK



D.J. Augustin finally was ruled out for four games due to the slight crack in his right big toe, opening up the Bobcats rotation in the short-term. Kemba Walker predictably put up numbers in his place, scoring 22 points on 7-of-17 shooting (including two threes) with five rebounds and two blocks, but managed just two assists and had four turnovers. That sounds about right for the shoot-first rookie. Derrick Brown started at small forward and scored 15 points on 6-of-13 shooting with four rebounds, two steals, and a block in 33 minutes, and looks like a guy with a 1-2 week window of productivity. Tyrus Thomas kept up the enigma act with four points on 1-of-9 shooting with four rebounds, two steals, and two blocks in 31 minutes, but what else is new. Bismack Biyombo played just 11 minutes, missing all five of his field goal attempts with just three rebounds and no blocks. I still have the guy rostered in a few leagues knowing that the second half of the season could be big. If they were daily leagues without game limits, or weekly leagues that I wasn’t doing well in I would not be so bold right now.



Boris Diaw wasn’t able to take advantage of the open minutes, scoring just four points on 2-of-6 shooting, six rebounds, and one assist in 24 minutes. I’ll have to go back and check, but I thought I yelled pretty loudly to sell-high a few weeks back. Hopefully I yelled loud enough. Byron Mullens showed why he was drafted in the second round as he was manhandled underneath all night, and finished with six points on 3-of-8 shooting, five rebounds, one steal, and three blocks. His weaknesses are being exposed more than I thought they could be, as teams are chasing him off his jumper and forcing him to play more physically. Mullens has borderline fantasy value in 12-team leagues over the past two weeks, but dropping him when he’s slumping and at his ‘floor’ doesn’t seem right, especially with nobody to truly push him for playing time.



I’M GONNA GIT YOU SUCKA



Andrea Bargnani (calf) returned to action and just destroyed the Suns with a season-high 36 points on 10-of-21 shooting (10-of-10 from the foul line, four threes). He also added six boards, two assists, two steals, and a block, and dare I say he played like the No. 1 pick he was drafted to be. Also hot last night was Leandro Barbosa, who played so well while scoring 19 points with three treys that he forced DeMar DeRozan (four points, 23 minutes) to the bench down the stretch. That shouldn’t sit well with DeRozan’s owners, but now is definitely not the time to give too much weight to Dwane Casey’s decisions. He reportedly met with each player individually on Monday and appears to be on the warpath. Amir Johnson (five points, three boards) was one of the casualties of war on Tuesday, as lumberjack Aaron Gray (two points, five boards, two steals, 15 minutes) started in his place and left Johnson with just 13 minutes of action. Don’t even ask about Ed Davis – he’s on the side of a milk carton. As for DeRozan, he could easily be the Raptors’ No. 2 scorer throughout the second half of the year and he’s added a 3-point shot to his repertoire. There’s too much upside to drop him, and I personally feel comfortable buying low though it’s a hard recommendation to make publicly with Toronto getting somewhat crowded. Jerryd Bayless and Linas Kleiza have both returned and James Johnson is emerging.



As for Johnson, I noticed the first signs of problems when Casey told media that he was “banged up on every limb of his body” on Wednesday, which would normally cause a coach to back off if they aren’t running around the court that well on Sunday. But Johnson was chewed out for a lack of effort on Sunday, and it sounds to me like a case of Casey being done covering for his player. Since Johnson doesn’t have a public history of effort issues, we’re guessing he is able to win out in the long run over Gray and that Casey is just trying to motivate him. It’s worth holding for at least a game or two to see where this heads.



One player whose recent promotion isn’t worth questioning is James Johnson, who started his fourth straight game at small forward and posted 18 points, 10 boards, and a steal, while Rasual Butler played just seven minutes and nearly handed the game over with a turnover late. Yes, Johnson is inconsistent, but even factoring in two stinker games he is averaging 13 points, five boards, 1.5 steals, 1.8 blocks, 0.5 threes, and shooting 47.7 percent from the field and 88.9 percent from the line. That’s good for fourth round value over that span and you don’t just find that type of upside every day. I know we didn’t call him a must-add player because of his recent inconsistency, but in my book you have to make the aggressive play to add him in exchange for anybody that you can’t call a must-start player in a standard 8/9 cat, 12-team format. If I get burned I can live with it, but I can’t live with Johnson kicking my ass up and down the stat sheet while he plays for somebody else


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ONE LAST SUNSET



The Suns are depressing to watch. Despite the often gaudy numbers, Steve Nash (17 points, seven rebounds, 14 assists) can’t shake anybody anymore and nobody in the media wants to say it. He still gets what is blocked for him and is fine within the flow of the game and when using screens, but it’s a problem that the main ball-handler can’t get the type of penetration he and his teammates need in order for all of them to be successful. The problem gets exasperated exponentially when Jared Dudley (six points, three steals, 23 minutes), Channing Frye (three points on 1-of-7 FGs, three boards, 12 minutes), and Grant Hill (11 points, five rebounds) are all sub-par athletically.



This has led to a ton of pick-and-rolls with Nash and Marcin Gortat, who is performing admirably, but he’s not somebody that you can build an offense around, at least not yet. Markieff Morris (four points, 17 minutes), Ronnie Price (four points, five boards, 27 minutes), Shannon Brown (seven points, 17 minutes), and Hakim Warrick (17 points, four assists) have athleticism going for them, but the culmination of the entire group has resulted in offensive possessions that look like the basketball equivalent of three yards and a cloud of dust. Nobody is open, and the machine is so broken that they don’t even run anymore. It’s a sad situation, but it has become clear that nobody outside of Nash and Gortat is a must-own player. While I’d like to think that Morris, Dudley, or Frye is capable of stepping up, my guess is that some athleticism needs to be added to the roster to make any of them worth banking on with a roster spot. Sadly, if I had to bet on any of them right now it would be Hill, who left last night’s game with a cut over his eye but should be fine. Beyond that we know better than to bet on Warrick, and if I had to rank the whole group by gut I’d go Hill, Dudley, Morris, and the rest of them don’t deserve the ink.



EXTRA MAYO PLEASE



O.J. Mayo has quietly become one of the more productive waiver wire pickups of the last couple of weeks, scoring another 20 points last night with two threes and a steal in the Grizzlies’ loss to the Blazers. He is averaging 16 points, 1.2 steals, and 2.4 threes over his last five games, which is good for third to fourth round value over that span. I mentioned it somewhere when Marreese Speights was signed, but we now have the answer to who between the two stood to gain more by Zach Randolph’s knee injury.



THE CAMBYMAN CAN



Marcus Camby not only played after suffering a strained groin on Monday, but he dominated the glass with a season-high 22 rebounds and five blocks against Marc Gasol and Co. last night. It doesn’t really change his fantasy value, as he’s still an injury-prone guy built for owners needing center help. But if you have the center position filled there’s no need to add a guy that will probably have a little red cross next to his name by the time you read this.



THIS IS ME GIVING YOU THE FINGER



Gerald Wallace aggravated his finger injury but stayed in the game, and finished with seven points on 3-of-6 shooting with 11 rebounds and two steals in 32 minutes. Typical. Speaking of typical, Nicolas Batum came off the bench and scored 10 points on 2-of-4 shooting with two rebounds, two assists, a steal, a block, and a 3-pointer in just 20 minutes, and besides his mother being held by immigration officials he’s also being stonewalled on a contract extension. The situation with his mother will subside, but he’s not exempt from getting moody or down on himself, so watch how he reacts to whatever the Blazers decide on Wednesday. Overall, it seems more likely that his stress lessens by about this time next week.



CARBON COPIES



Flip Saunders was fired yesterday and if you think things are getting better any time soon in Washington, think again. New coach Randy Whitman is essentially “Saunders without the accolades” according to one recent report, and the problem with that group of players is so deep rooted in their personalities and lack of work ethic that it will take a big-time move to fix things. Either some players will have to go or a big-name coach will need to be brought in, but when the team picks up their level of play for a week or two to prove to folks that it was all Flip’s fault – don’t buy into some sort of renaissance taking place. Now if they were to give Sam Cassell the job you might have me listening. That’s just stupid enough to work.



HAW HAW HAW



Spencer Hawes (Achilles) could be out until Monday after a conflicting set of reports first said he couldn’t “lift on his toes,” followed by one that implied the injury wasn’t serious. We’re pretty sure the latter report was understated and I’ll be looking at Nikola Vucevic (quad/knee) closely over the next few days. He’s a game-time decision for tonight’s game, but heard a ‘pop’ when he was injured and had to be carried off the floor. Other than that news has been skimpy, but he theoretically has a chance to make headway in the position battle if he can get on the floor. A guy that can hit threes and block shots, he could be a poor man’s Andrea Bargnani if everything works out in his favor. He’s just to be watched for now.



FOUR QUARTERS OF FURY



1^ST QUARTER: Rajon Rondo (wrist) is expected back on Thursday, while Ray Allen (ankle) didn’t travel with the team … Keyon Dooling (knee) is the better option between he and Sasha Pavlovic if he can go. Josh Howard (quad) is probable to play on Wednesday … unless you’re comfortable gambling on a guy with very little chance of staying healthy you need to look elsewhere. Arron Afflalo (groin) will not play on Wednesday, and has more or less come around and justified being owned in 12-team leagues … better days are probably ahead. Dirk Nowitzki (knee) could miss more than the original four games he was scheduled to miss.



2^ND QUARTER: Michael Beasley (foot) practiced on Monday but isn’t expected to play this week … he could return as a sixth man but owners should wait-and-see rather than dropping him. Rick Adelman doesn’t seem to trust Derrick Williams, and until the Wolves are realistically out of playoff contention Williams isn’t going to be given any favors. Vince Carter (foot) did some light shooting on Tuesday, and will need to prove himself before owners should waste time watching him. Chris Paul looks to be a game-time decision for Wednesday’s game, and with a red-hot Mo Williams VDN has options … either way Mo takes a hit, but owners should ride him until the wheels fall off. Gerald Henderson said that he plans to play on Wednesday against the Wizards after a hard fall.



3^RD QUARTER: Damion James (foot) had season-ending surgery, which is a win for Anthony Morrow and MarShon Brooks. Brooks’ MRI came back negative and he is still a game-time decision for Wednesday’s game. All of the news has been positive so far, so I’m cautiously optimistic owners will have their rookie of the year candidate back to his normal self within a short amount of time. Roy Hibbert (16 points, 12 boards, two blocks) played through his broken nose and while it’s unsettling to know one hit could knock him out, plenty of guys have survived this situation before him. David West had just six points and three boards, and his lack of consistency is probably equal parts conditioning and lack of practice with his teammates. That shouldn’t make owners feel any better about it, but it does suggest there is a chance he gets it together as we go.



4^TH QUARTER: Luol Deng (non-shooting wrist) appears to be out for at least a week, if not more, and Richard Hamilton is not just a must-own player he’s a must-start player while Deng is out. As for replacement starter Ronnie Brewer, he’s the perfect add for Deng’s owner, but beyond that owners can probably do better looking for a long-term solution. Dwyane Wade (ankle) did not play on Tuesday and may not play on Wednesday, either. Chris Bosh scored a season-high 35 points while LeBron James struggled with 18 points on 8-of-21 shooting on Tuesday. They will both take slight hits when Wade returns, but in particular with Bosh, owners shouldn’t get caught up in that. The Rupaul of big men worked hard this summer and is a better player than last year’s version – plain and simple.

 

[HacheMan]

Daily Dose: Big Wednesday

Simply put, Wednesday night was madness. There is a whole lot to get into so I’m not going to waste any time with the foreplay.

ONE FULL PAGE OF INJURY NEWS



Chris Paul (hamstring) finally returned to action after a five-game absence, scoring just four points on 2-of-8 shooting with four rebounds, 12 assists, and a steal in 27 minutes. He emerged unscathed as far as we can tell, and that leaves Mo Williams (16 points) and his owners hoping for some late-round value going forward. Don’t drop Williams until he forces you to, as he has been on fire lately.



Andrea Bargnani broke owners’ hearts after leaving last night’s game due to the same calf injury that cost him six games, and of course he was having a great night before the injury with 25 points, three treys, five rebounds, and four assists. He was “walking gingerly” and couldn’t put much weight on his calf, and he’ll be out indefinitely and my guess is we’re looking at weeks and not days. Look for Amir Johnson (six points, one board, three blocks, 24 minutes) to be pressed into action, and if Johnson is still in Dwane Casey’s doghouse Ed Davis and Aaron Gray would be the next guys up from a fantasy perspective. Johnson should be owned in all 12-team, 8- and 9-cat leagues, while the other two should simply be watched. This also helps the cause of James Johnson, who posted a typical two points on 1-of-4 shooting with five boards, one assist, one steal, and six blocks over 39 minutes in the Raptors’ double-overtime win over the Jazz.



Al Jefferson hurt his ankle in shootaround and upon leaving told the media he simply needed to use the restroom, but really he meant to take a dump on owners who were made to think that Big Al was going to play. Once late-breaking news hit that he would be out, Derrick Favors was given the start and promptly put up 16 points, 12 boards, and a block. It’s pretty easy to point out that when one of Big Al, Favors, or Paul Millsap is out that the others are going to do well. Jefferson was in a walking boot, which doesn’t mean much of anything these days, and he’s questionable for Friday’s game. Beyond that, your guess is as good as ours about how serious it is, though we get the sense we’re measuring days and not weeks. Don’t go adding Favors unless we get news that it’s the latter.



Ty Lawson left last night’s game with a sprained ankle and said afterward that he’ll probably miss a few days. Lawson is always a bit overoptimistic with his injuries and needs to be held back by the coaching staff at times. Andre Miller (15 points, four rebounds, 10 assists) was playing well enough to be owned before the injury and with this news he should be owned in all formats. Likewise, Arron Afflalo was playing well enough to be owned in many 12-team, 8- and 9-cat leagues, so it stands to reason that this news can only help him while he recovers from his groin injury. Corey Brewer (15 points, blowout) is the deep-league spot-service special if Lawson misses a few games, and you can add Rudy Fernandez (Achilles) to that list if he can get back on the court.



Dwyane Wade (ankle) was moving well before Wednesday’s game but did not go, so we’ll do it all over again on Friday against the Knicks.



Andrew Bogut left Wednesday’s game with a seemingly severe ankle sprain, and will “likely miss a couple of games” according to beat writer Gery Woelfel. That means it’s Drew Gooden time, even though his 11 points, two rebounds, and a rare 3-point bucket didn’t scream ‘take me.’ Gooden has averaged about 15 and nine in five starts this season in place of Bogut. That’s good enough to add over the short-term unless your fantasy squad is set down low.



Luol Deng (wrist) said that he will play on Sunday against the Heat, which is a big game to circle if you’re Deng. Sadly, he’s not favored to produce like he did before the injury if he’s playing hurt, with Richard Hamilton ready to steal touches at his side.



Spencer Hawes (Achilles) did not play and there is no timetable for Nikola Vucevic (knee/quad) to return. It sounds like Hawes is going to beat him back, as Doug Collins said he was getting “closer to a return.” That report was updated to say he would probably be back no later than early next week. If you weathered the storm it’s definitely time to hold Hawes with Vucevic looking like he could be out for a bit and nobody else to push him. Just be ready to move him if he starts putting up numbers again and news on Vucevic isn’t too bad. There’s just too much injury risk and threat to his playing time as Vucevic develops.



MarShon Brooks (Achilles) did not play on Wednesday but hopes to be back Friday. Anthony Morrow scored 16 points with two threes and Jordan Farmar had 12 points with two threes of his own. While Morrow will almost certainly go back to the bench when Brooks returns, I like him to hold late round value once the peaks and valleys are ironed out.



Baron Davis (back) did not play last night after some talk that he would, and one has to wonder what we’re really looking at here. It seems like he’s not so sure he can perform and is buying time. That said, he’s still worth holding and/or adding if you are in need of a point guard.



Marcus Thornton (thigh) has a “significant hematoma,” which is where blood pools near blood vessels instead of under the skin where bruising shows. In English, that’s not good, and he’s expected to miss 1-2 weeks.



Gerald Henderson (back) was a last second scratch on Wednesday after taking a fall in Tuesday’s game. There’s no indication that the injury is serious. Matt Carroll played well with a season-high 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting in 35 minutes, but he needs much more of that to matter in fantasy leagues or in Charlotte.



Luke Ridnour did not play on Wednesday due to a sore left knee. This came out of nowhere so the severity of the injury is unknown. Wayne Ellington started in his place and scored 16 points on 5-of-15 shooting with a three, four rebounds, three assists, one steal, and two blocks in nearly 40 minutes of action. He has been inconsistent, but he has also shown flashes of utility and my best guess is that Rick Adelman’s offense is the rising tide that lifts all boats in Minny. There’s not enough for an add, but if playing time ever opens for Ellington don’t hold his career-to-date against him too heavily.



Chris Kaman was inactive without having any injury. He’s either falling out of the rotation or (if you’re into conspiracy theories) involved in a trade, but hoping for the latter means you’re wearing a tin hat (hey, I do).



Thaddeus Young played through a lower back contusion he suffered last night, finishing with 10 points on 5-of-9 shooting and five boards. If anything happens there it’ll boost the usual suspects – Evan Turner, Lou Williams, and Jodie Meeks (in that order)



Rodney Stuckey (groin) was pulled off the Rotoworld injury report after scoring 15 points with four boards, six assists, and a steal. He may be back on it eventually, but owners can slowly take their finger off the panic button.



Gerald Wallace played through his finger injury but it may be causing him to shy away from the action, as he had just six points and six rebounds in 32 minutes. As long as he’s healthy, he needs to be in your lineup, though, as this is his absolute ‘floor’ when he plays.



Nick Collison (ankle) did play 17 minutes last night, but Serge Ibaka looked good with 14 points on 7-of-11 shooting with seven rebounds and two blocks. And wouldn’t you know it – the beat writer in Oklahoma City and Scott Brooks were synchronized in saying how much Ibaka has changed. The writer then discussed some short-comings in man-defense for Ibaka, and frankly I don’t have the time to go to the tape each time one of them tries to justify why he’s not on the court. Four times now I’ve gone to the tape and seen nothing but good defense after the comments from the peanut gallery say otherwise, and four times it has been nothing but bunk. I’ll go and check it out again just to do my job, but the general public will eat that type of stuff up and think that magically Ibaka changed his ways. Whatever. It’s good for owners, though, because the storyline indicates that Brooks is moving more toward playing Ibaka. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was making better eye-contact during rah-rah speeches in the locker room.


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GIVE ME SOME LOVE



Kris Humphries had 13 points and a season-high 19 rebounds and his value should be stable as things stand.



Chris Bosh scored 27 points on 12-of-15 shooting with six rebounds, four assists, a steal, and a three with Dwyane Wade (ankle) out on Wednesday. I’ve said many times this year that I think Bosh is going to perform above preseason expectations all year, but owners have to think about putting out the feelers after his recent hot stretch. Most players know that his numbers will take a hit when Wade returns, but believe it or not there are people out there that don’t pay much attention. LeBron James scored 32 points with another full line including a 13-of-14 mark from the foul line and a three, and you won’t find me moving him on behalf of Wade’s return.



Austin Daye jolted the fantasy populace with a career-high 28 points on 10-of-18 shooting with four treys, six boards, and a steal in 30 minutes last night, but the stark reality is that Ben Gordon (shoulder) and Tayshaun Prince (personal) will be back as wet blankets soon. Daye certainly earned minutes with his performance, but I think owners in 12-team leagues have to simply sit back and watch. If you have a dead weight roster spot and nothing promising on your waiver wire feel free to make the add, but this is not a run-to-the-wire moment.



Ersan Ilyasova has improved since heading back to the bench, and last night he posted a ridiculous career-high of 19 rebounds while also chipping in with seven points and a block in just 28 minutes. He is averaging nine points and nine boards to go with 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 0.6 threes in 22 minutes per game as a sub, which is good for sneaky late round value in 8- and 9-cat, 12-team leagues. Ilyasova is going to be touch-and-go coming off the bench, but he can’t play any less than he is right now and will be needed more with Andrew Bogut (ankle) out for at least a couple of games. I don’t see how owners in need of a power forward can’t add him now that these numbers have held, and there’s also room for growth (that’s what she said).



Samuel Dalembert is going to stop getting blurbs on nights he grabs 18 rebounds with 13 points and two blocks at the rate he is going, and since I own him virtually everywhere I’m feeling downright giddy. Kyle Lowry almost triple-doubled on a 2-of-16 shooting night with eight points, eight rebounds, and 10 assists, and Kevin Martin added 29 points. Good times. But the story of the night was the Chandler Parsons Project, who scored 16 points on 7-of-14 shooting with seven rebounds, five assists, two steals, and two blocks. He’s another guy I’ve been adamant about holding onto while he has provided solid value despite low amounts of counting stats. If he is available run and pick him up.



Ricky Rubio scored 17 points with seven rebounds, 12 assists, and four steals, and has officially rendered any European stats useless until the end of time.



Paul Millsap scored a season-high 31 points with 11 rebounds, a steal, a block, and a three with Al Jefferson (ankle) out, and Millsap is providing top-15 value in 8-cat leagues on a per-game basis courtesy of BasketballMonster.com and top-7 value in 9-cat formats. Those numbers jump up to top-8 and top-5, respectively, over the past two weeks. I don’t know about you, but with the trade deadline a potential pitfall and the late-season development of Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter on the horizon – I’m all about selling while the going is good. Favors has been notably muzzled so far this year, and some of his surrounding players have been so bad that Millsap has been relied upon heavily. That smorgasbord of negative happenings is bound to hit on at least one level.



Stephen Curry (ankle) is officially back, scoring a season-high 32 points with six rebounds, seven assists, and four steals in a much-needed Warriors win last night. There is going to be a point in time in which folks start to feel comfortable with Curry’s ankle, and if his trade value is ever high enough to return a first round pick or a second-round pick with an up-arrow – it’s my position that you have to take the deal simply to eliminate the risk. If his ankle didn’t get better with a summer’s worth of rest, no amount of time this year is going to make it any better than it was to start the year.



PICKUP LINES



Tyrus Thomas exploded for 13 points, nine boards, four steals, and a career-high NINE blocked shots in 33 minutes, and has now entered Stage 1 of Dr. A’s Six Stages of Owning Tyrus Thomas. If anything has changed about Thomas since then let me know, but he’s a must-own player after this outing, even if it came against the Wizards.



Linas Kleiza was a forgotten man on draft day, but has proven healthy and effective lately. He busted out last night with a season-high 25 points on 8-of-16 shooting (including four treys) with five rebounds and a steal in 33 minutes. Yes, the Raptors had a productive box score as a group in a double-overtime game against the Jazz, but Andrea Bargnani’s calf injury makes Kleiza worth a look in 12-team formats. I don’t see how Toronto can produce two valuable small forwards without trending toward a small lineup while Bargnani is out, and I’d still prefer to own James Johnson because he’s starting and has big-time upside. The kicker here, though, is that Kleiza’s scoring could be needed while Bargs is out and that could make Kleiza the better player to own in the short-term. It’s a tricky situation, but if you missed out on Johnson then give Kleiza a look.



Devin Harris finally busted out last night with a season-high 24 points with three rebounds, six assists, a steal, a block, and a three in the Jazz’s double-overtime loss. I recently added him when he was dropped with very little expectation, with the hopes that some of his recent embarrassment would spark better play. There are a lot of factors to suggest this is a mirage, including Jose Calderon’s matador defense and the added minutes of double-OT, but the Jazz really need him to improve his trade value at a minimum and Earl Watson just isn’t an NBA starter. If he was dropped, consider the add with the same logic I used.



Jimmer Fredette’s season started with fans climbing over themselves to see him in Sacramento, and landed with a thud when the powers that be in Sacramento were semi-forced to give Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton (thigh), John Salmons, and DeMarcus Cousins the keys to the car. Well those guys went and drove the car 130 MPH off the side of a cliff, and with Thornton out for 1-2 weeks with a severe bruise there is a nice window open for Jimmer to jump through. Last night he hit five 3-point shots as the Kings were getting drop-kicked out of their own building, scoring 19 points with one rebound, three assists, and a steal in 36 minutes.



The situation for owners in a 12-14 team league is dicey, because Thornton could come back and obviously ruin his value, but with the Kings needing all of the public support they can get to get an arena deal – Jimmer could end up demanding minutes with some solid play. Kings fans are already fed up with the selfish brand of basketball played by Tyreke Evans and Co., and with embarrassing losses piling up, the change to a willing passer in Fredette and even some more Isaiah Thomas (16 points, six assists, garbage time) makes basketball sense. Jimmer’s next game is in Utah on Saturday and it sets up well for both owners taking a chance, and also for the Kings to internally decide that a change needs to be made if they can win on the road. As I blurbed last night, he graduated last night from a long-shot flier stash in 12-team leagues, to a speculative add in hopes he can win a 25-30 minute role with a directive from Keith Smart to his guys to pass Jimmer the ball.







FREUDIAN SLIPS



First off, I’d like to thank the reader Gary for pointing out my mistake yesterday. I called B.J. Mullens a second round pick when he was the No. 24 overall pick in 2009, and maybe it was a Freudian slip with the way he has been playing lately. Teams have figured out how to muscle him around and defend his perimeter approach, and coming off a two-point, zero-rebound outing in which he played through a bruised shooting hand – owners are right to be concerned. I said yesterday that it doesn’t make sense to ditch him while he’s slumping, but there is a sense that this could be more than a slump. Try to see where this heads if you can, but don’t pass up on a sure-fire or high-upside waiver wire pickup to do it.


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YOUR GUESS IS AS GOOD AS MINE



Alvin Gentry is looking at making changes and he specifically mentioned the possibility of moving Markieff Morris out of the starting lineup. If you’re holding onto Channing Frye you may want to wait and see what happens, and at the same time it’s time to slow whatever roll you had with Morris, too.



THIS IS THE MILLENIUM OF THE AFTERMATH



DeMar DeRozan (44 minutes) bounced back from some slow outings in last night’s double-overtime win, scoring 17 points on 6-of-11 shooting (including a three), eight rebounds, two assists, and two steals, while Leandro Barbosa was plenty effective with 13 points on 6-of-9 shooting in 25 minutes off the bench. After Tuesday’s benching in the fourth quarter all is well again for DeRozan’s owners, and I hope somebody out there scored him on a buy low offer even though I was iffy about recommending it. With Andrea Bargnani (calf) out indefinitely, Barbosa should be owned in 12-team formats as a clear top scoring option whenever Bargnani goes out.



Jose Calderon (35 minutes) also bounced back and is holding off Jerryd Bayless for the time-being, as he scored 12 points on 5-of-13 shooting with four rebounds and seven assists. Bayless played 22 minutes and hit just 1-of-6 shots for five points, but handed out seven assists and isn’t going away. The sell-high window may have opened slightly for Calderon owners, and he is by no means in full control of the position battle. He’s winning, but for 'how long' and 'how long can he stay healthy' are the appropriate questions.



WE’RE OFF TO SEE THE WIZARDS



Randy Whitman said that he would use the same rotation now that he’s coach. Way to take the whole ‘Flip Saunders without the accolades’ thing seriously, Randy. That said, there’s no real reason to tinker with the composition of the rotation unless he’s going to sit guys for effort and the like.



And as I alluded to yesterday, the Wizards did come out and beat a bad Bobcats team behind a solid effort by Andray Blatche. Blatche scored 17 points on 7-of-15 shooting with 10 rebounds, four assists, and two steals. Mild shoulder concerns aside, he looks like a good buy low candidate in 8- and 9-cat leagues. His higher-volume 38.7 percent mark from the field is very likely to move back toward his 45.9 percent career mark.



John Wall hit 6-of-9 shots for 12 points, six boards, four assists, two blocks, and seven turnovers, and has quietly hit 44 percent of his shots over the past two weeks with second round per-game value in 8-cat leagues. That valuation dips to fifth round value in 9-cat leagues when you factor in 4.8 turnovers per game over his last eight contests. Surely his owners are frustrated with him in both formats, but especially in 9-cat there is room to buy low.



As for the rest of the crew I’m much too concerned about the pending implosion there to get behind anybody not named Wall, Blatche, or JaVale McGee (six points, 10 boards, four blocks). Once the honeymoon period with Whitman is over it will be up to the group to change their ways, and I don’t know anybody predicting that will happen. That’s going to mean inconsistent results that owners can’t plan for with guys like Nick Young (20 points, 7-of-18 FGs, two threes) and Jordan Crawford (nine points, five assists, 19 minutes).



CONTRACT CORNER



Kevin Love signed a four-year deal worth $62 million with an opt-out after three years, which was the price the Wolves had to pay in order not to sign him for five years. I don’t know how fired up I am about the Wolves’ decision one way or another, but Love profiles as the type of guy I’d want signed for five years. They may have just negotiated their way into a three-year deal.



Danilo Gallinari was rumored to have accepted a four-year, $40 million extension, which is an absolute steal for a guy shaping up to be a nice No. 2 on a contending team. Now Denver just needs to go out and get a No. 1.



Ryan Anderson did not sign a contract extension, probably because he wants to continue to let his market value rise. That and I’m sure the Magic weren’t pitching him any great offers with the Dwight Howard situation hanging over them.



JaVale McGee was not given an extension, but the Wizards followed up by saying they would match any offer they got with McGee being a restricted free agent this summer. This essentially buys them time to make sure he doesn’t do anything really dumb.



I said on Twitter that Nicolas Batum would be low-balled and that’s what his agent said happened when he wasn’t extended. Batum went out and scored 16 points on 5-of-8 shooting with three rebounds, one steal, and two blocks in 23 minutes off the bench. This could spin a few different ways, but we know that Batum will be motivated to put up numbers. I’d tend to answer ‘yes’ to the question of whether or not he should be owned in most 12-team, 8/9 cat formats.



The Bobcats exercised their team option on Gerald Henderson, who is averaging 15.4 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.0 steals on 47.1 percent shooting this season.



The Nets will not pick up the option on Damion James’ (foot) contract. More importantly, they will not extend Brook Lopez, who becomes a restricted free agent this summer.



Toney Douglas saw his team-option exercised, which was a no-brainer at the $2 million price tag.



Terrence Williams and Courtney Lee will not have their options exercised, but the Rockets made nice by saying they’re interested in Lee for next year. I guess that’s the omelet equivalent after a one-night stand.



THURSDAY NIGHT LIGHTS



Ray Allen (ankle) and Mickael Pietrus (shoulder) have been ruled out for Thursday (UPDATE: Pietrus has been ruled in), and Rajon Rondo (wrist), Keyon Dooling (knee), Chris Wilcox (knee), Jermaine O’Neal (knee), and the Celtics training staff are all game-time decisions… none of the backups are particularly appealing for spot-starts.


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COMMISSIONER GORDON



Eric Gordon’s extension has become the newsiest of the bunch, which is to be expected after he was made the centerpiece of the now infamous Chris Paul trade. And rather than talk about David Stern’s imprint, the more relevant aspect of the situation is Gordon’s knee. First and foremost, only his doctors and agent truly know what is going on with it. Information has been very hard to come by, and Monty Williams sounds like a guy that wants nothing to do with the liability of explaining the injury.



"I’m sure it’s a bone bruise, but I don’t know the other stuff that’s going on,’’ Williams said when he wasn’t evading questions. “He’s out three weeks because the doctors said he needs three weeks to rest.” Williams then added, “It’s more than precaution. It just hasn’t healed the way that they wanted. They still see something on his knee that they don’t like, so he’s got to take more time.’’



Setting aside the knee for a second, it was reported that Gordon wanted the same deal that Russell Westbrook got, which was five years and $80 million. I don’t know what Gordon is smoking, but a guy with durability concerns at a minimum – who has played well but not at an elite level by any means – doesn’t warrant that type of a deal. As you’ll see by the deals that Kevin Love (4/62) and Danilo Gallinari (4/40) got, the idea that Gordon would get that money is laughable even before we consider the knee. Then you had Gordon’s camp leaking reports all week that he really, really, really wanted to extend in New Orleans, and I needless to say I wasn’t the only one in the media saying that there was a strategic element to the whole thing.



Now back to the knee, the story with bone bruises is that they often occur when there is some sort of a tear in a ligament, but it’s not mandatory that they come with a tear. Simple, but excessive force can also do it. That’s what it sounds like we’re dealing with here. And, yes, cartilage damage is often found in the case of a serious bone bruise – and there can be trouble re-generating cartilage as a result. Am I doctor? Hell no, but I do keep up on matters like these for a number of reasons. Gordon needing three weeks off without any blatant tear or on-court injury is a huge red flag, and it suggests that something isn’t taking well to the pounding a basketball player’s knee takes. Again, while it could be nothing, it’s something owners can’t ignore.



Moving back to the contract, I mentioned on Twitter that the Hornets would likely low-ball Gordon at four years for $42 million. I added that this was an aggressive guess (if anything on the low side). A Hornets team blog quoted a source as saying Gordon rejected a four-year, slightly over $50 million deal. Maybe he really thinks he is worth $12 million more than Gallinari and worth more than the $62 million Love got. If he really got a $50 million-plus offer then that tells me the Hornets aren’t so concerned about the knee. If Gordon and his camp think he can play through the injury and earn an even bigger deal as a restricted free agent this summer then that says they’re not so concerned about the knee.



So that’s all good news, but with the Pacers supposedly interested in Gordon, wouldn’t David Stern want to lock up the centerpiece of his Chris Paul deal so guys like me can’t rail on him for vetoing the Lakers deal? All Indy will do if they are so interested in him is up his price.



This is all just background music for the Eric Gordon owner. All I really know at the end of the day is that there are red flags, and despite those flags, as a Gordon owner I’ll be holding him in most formats through the next three weeks to see where this heads – just like everybody else. If reports become clearer and start taking a positive tone I’ll drop those red flags. But if the funny business continues, there’s going to be a point in time where owners will want to start thinking about trading Gordon while there’s still value there.



TODAY IN KNICKS BASKETBALL



Seeing Carmelo Anthony’s 5-of-14 mark last night I went back to the game tape to be clear about what is going on in New York. Anthony finished with 15 points, four boards, and six assists, which is good for mere mortals, but fantasy owners want to know what’s up. Is it the wrist? Is it the ankle? I can’t say for sure that those things aren’t affecting him, but what I can say is that I was once again impressed with the way the Knicks offense functioned on the whole. Watching the Cavs stay ahead of them on the scoreboard as I watched just the offensive film, I’d be scared to watch the defensive cut. Offensively, I could nitpick about a few things here and there, but the bottom line is that they didn’t get their 3-point shots to drop (3-of-20). There were less than 5-6 shots taken that I would classify as ‘bad shots.’ Especially early on, we even got a taste of some Melo/Amare pick-and-roll and it was run well.



Once again, Melo was a willing passer and only had one really bad shot – a hero three with about four minutes to go that might have been the final straw with the Knicks scuffling. He took a handful of shots that were the results of random offensive breakdowns (deflections, good defense, forgivable miscommunications), but on the whole I’m not nearly as concerned about him and the Knicks offense after the last two nights. It seems the message was sent to Anthony, and he has responded by letting his teammates play. The two games against doormats in Cleveland and Charlotte couldn’t have come at a better time, as it has allowed them to tweak their approach when nobody is watching. With their next stop in Miami on Friday, we’ll get to see if Melo tightens up and tries to play hero or if the new approach can stick.



If it does, yes, there is a chance that Melo takes a hit to his fantasy value because he’s not ball-hogging, but for everybody else it will be great news. For Knicks fans it will be awesome news, and even though they lost to the lowly Cavs I thought the offensive ball movement will pay dividends down the road.



Landry Fields (32 minutes) had a nice night with 13 points, five boards, and a steal on 5-of-7 shooting. Iman Shumpert (22 minutes) was a bit over-aggressive on 2-3 plays and missed some rhythm jumpers, but his penetration skills are going to be key for the Knicks this year. He scored seven points with four boards, two assists, and a block – and you can bet his owners are concerned. Shumpert’s minutes actually landed in Toney Douglas’ bucket tonight. Douglas hit just 2-of-8 threes, but like I said before those shots came mostly in rhythm (with two exceptions) and he had a handful of nice plays. Eight points, one rebound, three assists, and two steals in 25 minutes is what the box score will show, but Douglas looks night and day better when the offense is functioning as it did last night.



I know Baron Davis is possibly going to play on Friday, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets held back in such a big-ticket game. I’m sure Mike D’Antoni likes what he is seeing on the court offensively, so he may not want to mess with it. I’d have to come across a big-time waiver wire acquisition to drop Shumpert, even with Baron Davis coming back, because I think the kid has a shot at mid-round value in the second half of the year. Fields is playing well enough to be held, and don’t be surprised if Toney Douglas starts canning threes regularly. This all hinges on Melo keeping his current approach.



A FEW WORDS ON AMARE STOUDEMIRE



Amare Stoudemire scored 19 points on 9-of-19 shooting with 14 rebounds and two steals. He still settled for a handful of jumpers when the old Amare might try to take his man off the dribble, but he had plenty of pop in those old legs of his last night. He made Anderson Varejao look silly a few times on the offensive glass and is starting to resemble the player that owners thought they drafted. I have mostly lost my concern that he is going to suffer a huge dropoff in explosion, at least this year.

 

[HacheMan]

Dose: Bogut Could Be Done

There were two NBA games on Thursday night, but the big topics of conversation were green & yellow uniforms, as well as the health of Andrew Bogut, Eric Gordon and Andrea Bargnani.



The news on all three players is not good and six weeks sounds about right for all three of them, although we’re still awaiting the official timetable on Bogut and Bargnani. It sounds like Bogut’s ankle is broken, or shall we say fractured, while Bargnani’s calf could possibly be torn. And while Gordon’s knee doesn’t seem to be afflicted with ligament or cartilage damage, something is obviously not right. I hate to say this, but I would strongly consider dropping all three of them in fantasy hoops. We still don’t have a definitive timetable on Bargnani, but I expect him to be iffy to return anytime in the next six weeks, and the same can be said for the other two. We’re quickly approaching Week 6 and there are only 18 weeks in this year’s season. That means we’re nearly 1/3 of the way through, and none of the three are expected to see daylight before we hit week 12. Maybe one of them will come back and be a difference maker in the fantasy playoffs, but I’m thinking it’s better to cut your losses and get a healthy body in your lineup.



While the news on those three isn’t great, there do appear to be options available in many leagues, although savvy owners were picking these guys up overnight on Wednesday. Here are some names I’d consider in the wake of injury-fest 2012.



Linas Kleiza – 25 points on Wednesday and should see big minutes with Bargnani sidelined indefinitely.

James Johnson – Already a hot pickup and should see more touches sans Bargnani.

Trevor Ariza – Hit just 1-of-8 shots on Wednesday, but benefits from loss of Gordon.

Drew Gooden – Went nuts last time Bogut was out and should be an automatic pickup right now.

Ersan Ilyasova – Had 19 boards on Wednesday and will help Gooden fill the Bogut void.

Marco Belinelli – Struggling, but starting with Gordon out.

Amir Johnson – Has to see a big increase in minutes with Bargnani out.

Leandro Barbosa – He’s playing very well and should continue to do so.



As for the games last night, the Celtics mounted a furious comeback and overcame a 27-point deficit to beat the Magic, despite not having Rajon Rondo or Ray Allen. In fantasy news, there doesn’t appear to be a timetable on Rondo’s return from a wrist injury, but I don’t think his situation is anywhere near as dire as the aforementioned players’. E’Twaun Moore had a career-high 16 points and Avery Bradley started in place of Rondo, but had just six points and two assists. Oh, and Jermaine O’Neal was out again with a sore knee, so Brandon Bass started, but had just 10 points and five rebounds. Unlike the injury situations with Bogut, Gordon and Bargnani, the Celtics just don’t have any firepower on their bench that can pick up the fantasy slack for the stars.



For the Magic, Dwight Howard fought through back spasms to have another Howard-like game, but the Magic just didn’t have it last night. Howard, J.J. Redick, Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson, Jameer Nelson and Ryan Anderson all scored between seven and 16 points, which is just boring. In fact, this game was tough to watch before the Celtics mounted their big fourth-quarter comeback.



After that game ended, folks tuning into TNT had three thoughts on their minds as the Clippers and Grizzlies game tipped off. Either viewers thought they had tuned into an alternate version of the movie Semi-Pro, in which the Tropics were playing the Kansas City Kings, or maybe the KC Kings were facing the Washington Generals, or Ernie Johnson was hosting high school night basketball, featuring the Cathedral Irish and West Rowan Falcons. I was watching this one from a sports bar with no audio, and it was tough to stomach.



The Grizzlies donned seemingly huge green shorts and yellow jerseys, while the Clippers donned baby blue unis, and the whole thing had a serious 70’s vibe. Marc Gasol simply looked overmatched by the dreadful colors and large shorts, which was a throwback nod to the Memphis Tams, whoever that may be. And it was tough to even tell the difference between Mike Conley and Chris Paul, which should be enough information to tell you just how bad the uniforms were.



In actual game news, Blake Griffin flirted with a triple-double and Paul looked good in his second game back from a hamstring injury, as the Clippers took down the Grizzlies by a score of 98-91. Marc Gasol and Rudy Gay had another big line for the Grizzlies, while O.J. Mayo started the second half over big man Marreese Speights, and finished with 14 points and three 3-pointers. Mayo is worth a pickup right now, and has scored in double figures in six straight games. Speights had an apparent case of DeAndre Jordan-itis, but my guess is he sticks in the starting five over Mayo going forward. But if Mayo does somehow crack the starting lineup for good, he’ll go from being a nice waiver-wire pickup to a must-own player in a hurry.



As for players who can probably be dropped in order to pick up one of the aforementioned injury replacements off waiver wires in fantasy, B.J. Mullens and Chris Kaman come to mind, along with guys like Marvin Williams, Boris Diaw, Lamar Odom and Brandon Rush. Other guys worth picking up right now include Tyrus Thomas, Austin Daye (keep an eye on him after Wednesday’s 28-point explosion), Andre Miller (Ty Lawson could miss a couple games with an ankle sprain), Tiago Splitter, Rodney Stuckey, Landry Fields, Nicolas Batum, Chandler Parsons, Chuck Hayes (back Saturday?), Ronnie Brewer (starting for Luol Deng), Jimmer Fredette, Isaiah Thomas (Marcus Thornton is out), Bismack Biyombo, Derrick Brown, Jordan Farmar and Injury Report




Ray Allen – Was out Thursday with ankle sprain and questionable Friday.

Rajon Rondo – Missed Thursday with wrist injury and could miss several more games.

B.J. Mullens – Has a bruised shooting hand and will be replaced by DeSagana Diop on Friday.

Gerald Henderson – Ruled out for Friday with bruised tailbone, Matt Carroll will start.

D.J. Augustin – Will likely miss the rest of the week (toe), with Kemba Walker and Derrick Brown filling in.

Luol Deng – Says he wants to return on Sunday, making Ronnie Brewer a shaky pickup.

Dirk Nowitzki – Should be back on Sunday, signaling an end to Shawn Marion’s nice run.

Ty Lawson - Ankle injury could keep him out the rest of this week.

Arron Afflalo – Doubtful for Friday with achilles injury.

Rudy Fernandez – Doubtful as well with a groin injury.

Tayshaun Prince – Iffy for tonight for personal reasons, Austin Daye could shine again.

Ben Gordon – Shoulder injury could keep him out again on Friday.

Zach Randolph – Targeting mid-February from knee injury, might be worth stashing now.

Dwyane Wade – Has missed six straight games with sprained ankle, iffy for Friday.

Luke Ridnour – Missed Wednesday with sore knee, Wayne Ellington benefits.

Michael Beasley – Nearing a return, but role in question with Derrick Williams playing well.

Andrew Bogut – Could be done for season with broken ankle. Drew Gooden now a must-own.

MarShon Brooks – Achilles injury, but could play on Friday.

Brook Lopez – Targeting mid-February return, can be grabbed and stashed.

Eric Gordon – Will be out 3-6 weeks with bruised knee, cuttable depending on options.

Baron Davis – Should play next week, but I’m not sold on him being able to get/stay healthy.

Spencer Hawes – I’ve been holding on and he could play this weekend through sore achilles.

Grant Hill – Took stitches above eye, but should be back tonight.

Manu Ginobili – Targeting mid-February at earliest from hand injury, might also be worth stashing.

Marcus Thornton – Thigh injury is lingering and could miss another week.

Chuck Hayes – Hoping to play on Saturday after missing several weeks with shoulder injury.

Andrea Bargnani – We’re awaiting MRI results, but could be out for several weeks.

Al Jefferson – Ankle tendonitis leaves him iffy for Friday. Derrick Favors will play well if he’s out.

 

[HacheMan]

Wired: Week's Top Pickups

It’s been another wild week in the NBA with injuries to Andrew Bogut and Andrea Bargnani making the latest headlines. Check out the fallout, as we break down 26 guys worth a look in your league.



The NBA Season Pass is up and running, so check it out! Weekly projections and rankings, exclusive live chats, the schedule grid and breakdown, customizable scoring, and much more is all there. Do you miss football already? Didn’t get into enough hoops leagues? Check out SnapDraft, where you can draft a new team every night and win some cash.



Point Guards



Devin Harris Jazz



Harris finally had the breakout game his owners have been waiting for on Wednesday night when he had 24 points and six dimes for the Jazz. I’m wondering if the absence of Al Jefferson might have had something to do with it? In any case, if he was dumped in your league he looks like an automatic pickup despite his struggles this season, and should be a safer option than Baron Davis going forward. He came into Wednesday averaging just eight points and 4.5 assists per game.



Iman Shumpert Knicks



Shumpert has been dropped in many leagues with the pending return of Baron Davis. However, I trust Shumpert and his shaky shooting ability more than I do Baron’s back, knees or any other part of his body. Shumpert could easily come off the bench behind Davis and Landry Fields, but my guess is that he’ll get plenty of minutes as the sixth man, as well as plenty more starts while Baron deals with injury woes all season.



Baron Davis Knicks



Davis will be back sometime next week for the Knicks, but as you already know, I’m not expecting much. Is he worth grabbing and holding in many leagues? Absolutely. I’m just not going to get my hopes up that he’ll do much or stay healthy long enough to help fantasy owners. I’ve been wrong before, but I’m going to let other owners deal with what should be an ongoing headache with Davis.



Mo Williams Clippers



Williams was great when Chris Paul was out and scored 16 & 18 points with five 3-pointers in the two games since Paul has come back. He’s technically more of a sell-high guy right now, but point guard options are probably limited in your league, and Mo-Will might be the best thing available.



Jordan Farmar Nets



Farmar has played very well in four straight games and it’s no coincidence that MarShon Brooks has been out for most of those with an Achilles injury. Brooks is due back soon, but Farmar has probably earned a spot in the rotation with his strong play. He’s scored between 12 and 22 points in his last four with seven 3-pointers, and while he should cool off upon Brooks’ return, he’s still worth a deep-league look.



Shooting Guards



Linas Kleiza Raptors



Kleiza is a very hot pickup with news that Andrea Bargnani is out indefinitely with a calf injury, although it doesn’t sound like Bargnani’s injury is as bad as feared. He could miss a few weeks or a month, but at this point, Kleiza should be grabbed in all leagues. He had 25 points and four 3-pointers on Thursday, and that was with Bargnani on the court. It has taken him time to return to form after knee surgery, but it’s time to make the move.



Landry Fields Knicks



Fields has been feeling it for the Knicks and likely locked down the starting shooting guard with his strong play of late. He’s hit double figures in five straight games and has been producing across the board in most categories.



Rodney Stuckey Pistons



Stuckey had 15 points and six assists in heavy minutes, telling us that his groin problem appears to be behind him. Tayshaun Prince was out for personal reasons and Ben Gordon’s been out with a shoulder injury, which has meant more minutes for Stuckey. As long as his groin is healthy, he’s going to be a solid fantasy play going forward, even coming off the bench in Detroit.



Mike Dunleavy Bucks



Dunleavy has scored 17 & 18 points in his last two games and knocked down three 3-pointers on Wednesday. He’s coming off the bench for now, but is Carlos Delfino never gets it going, Dunleavy could easily be started by Scott Skiles.



Isaiah Thomas & Jimmer Fredette Kings



Both of these guys have played well in the absence of Marcus Thornton, who will miss a few more games with a calf injury. Neither is a must-own player, but both deserve a look in all leagues. I just have trust issues with them, as their minutes are sporadic. Jimmer had 19 points and five treys on Wednesday, while Thomas had 16 points, six assists and two 3-pointers. If they play well again on Saturday, grab one of them if you’ve got room.<!--RW-->



Small Forwards



James Johnson Raptors



I think we’ve covered this guy pretty heavily, but he’s still available in many leagues. In summary, his season highs are as follows:



Points: 23

Rebounds: 10

Assists: 5

Steals: 6

Blocks: 6

Threes: 1



While he’s been a bit hit and miss all year, Bargnani’s absence is going to work in JJ’s favor, although he was already starting for the Raptors, and getting heavy minutes. Find a way to get him on your team, unless you already struggle to score points. He’s averaging just six points thus far.



Nicolas Batum Blazers



Batum has put up monster numbers when he gets minutes and been a bit disappointing when he is limited to about 20 mpg. But he is blocking shots, stealing the ball, knocking down threes and rebounding, making him a potential fantasy beast. He becomes more of a must-own player when Marcus Camby is hurt, but as long as Camby is healthy, Batum has trouble getting enough minutes. He’s still a guy worth stashing if you have room.



Chandler Parsons Rockets



Parsons was on his way to being dropped in many leagues before Wednesday’s big line of 16 points, seven boards, five assists, two steals and two blocks. He didn’t hit a three that night, but has 10 of them on the season. He’s not a must-own player, but is averaging eight points, six boards with a steal, a block and an occasional 3-pointer, which might be enough to help your team.



Derrick Brown Bobcats



Brown is a default starter for the Bobcats right now and had 10 points and five rebounds on Wednesday. If he stays in the starting unit, and he could, he could end up averaging 12 points and six rebounds, so just keep an eye on him if you need a forward.



Austin Daye Pistons



Daye scored 18 points - in the second quarter! He finished with a career-high 28 points and four 3-pointers, along with six rebounds, but got the extra minutes because Tayshaun Prince and Ben Gordon were out. Maybe this will change the mind of Pistons' coach Lawrence Frank, but Prince will be back for the next game and should remain the starter. I'm going to predict that this is Daye's highlight of the season, and while I don't think he's a must-add except in deeper leagues, he's at least worth keeping a close eye on going forward. He was getting just 12 minutes and three points a game, so I doubt Larry is ready to bench Prince and turn Daye loose. I'd love to see it happen, but I am guessing Daye is fool's gold right now.



Power Forwards



Tyrus Thomas Bobcats



Thomas exploded for 13 points, nine rebounds, four steals and nine blocks on Wednesday. I've been preaching for owners to hang onto Thomas specifically for a night like this. The problem is that he does this a couple times a year, gets everyone worked up and then ends up being a monumental disappointment the rest of the way. There's a good chance that could happen again, but he's healthy and getting a ton of minutes for Charlotte. It could end up being another false alarm, but Thomas should be grabbed in all leagues at this point.



Carl Landry Hornets



Landry has suddenly become the top power forward option in New Orleans, as Chris Kaman has been put on the bench, in the doghouse, or whatever else you want to call his disappearing act. Landry is not a great rebounder and doesn’t block shots, but has scored between 15 & 19 points in his last three games. Jason Smith is the starter, but Landry’s the guy to own.



Ersan Ilyasova Bucks



Ilyasova exploded for seven points and 19 rebounds on Wednesday and is averaging 11 points and nine boards over his last five games. And when you add in the fact that Andrew Bogut will miss eight to 12 weeks with a broken ankle, EI looks like a must-own player, along with Drew Gooden (see centers).



Amir Johnson Raptors



Johnson should see a boost in minutes for as long as Andrea Bargnani is out. He’d fallen out of favor lately and saw a drop in minutes, but could be ready to turn it on again with the Raptors thin up front. He can score, board and block shots, and while I like Kleiza, Gooden and Ilyasova more, Johnson could end up being the sleeper of the bunch.



Gustavo Ayon Hornets



Maybe you’ve never heard of him, but Ayon had 16 points, three steals and a block in 17 minutes on Wednesday. He’s had a few nice games this season, but is far from reliable. But if you’re in a very deep league, he could be worth a look now that he’s getting some of Centers




Drew Gooden Bucks



Gooden posted big numbers the last time Bogut was out, but is only averaging eight points and five boards on the season. He had 11 points, two board, three steals and a block on Wednesday, when Bogut went down, and played 28 minutes in that one. If he starts at center, he should be able to average 15 points and nine rebounds, which is what he’s averaging for the season when starting at center. He’s a must-own player in my book.



Tiago Splitter Spurs



Splitter is hot for the Spurs despite coming off the bench. He had 16 points, eight boards and a block on Wednesday and has hit double figures in five straight games. He also scored 25 points last Saturday, and while I don’t really trust him or Gregg Popovich, Splitter can be grabbed in almost any league for now.



Chuck Hayes Kings



Hayes is due back on Saturday for the Kings, but will join a crowded front court. He averaged about six points and eight rebounds before going down with a shoulder injury and should be able to do so again. He’s not a must-own player, but if you need big-man help, he should offer it.



Derrick Favors Jazz



Favors started for Al Jefferson, who could miss time with ankle tendinitis. Favors had 16 points, 12 boards and a block on Wednesday, but if Jefferson plays on Friday night, Favors should go back to being a forgotten man on the Jazz bench.



Bismack Biyombo Bobcats



Biyombo is flirting with having value right now and has blocked 29 shots this season. Scoring and minutes have been wildly inconsistent, but if you need blocks, he might be the best thing available on your waiver wire. And if/when the Bobcats fall out of the playoff hunt, they simply have to turn Biyombo loose.

 

[HacheMan]

Dose: Lineup Changes Abound

It’s Monday and as long as you don’t play in a Yahoo! Weekly league, that somehow still requires you to set a lineup before you go to bed on Sunday night, you’ll likely be setting your lineups illegally at work today. Let’s go with team-by-team notes and hope that this doesn’t take too long to get through.



The NBA Season Pass is up and running, so check it out! Weekly projections and rankings, exclusive live chats, the schedule grid and breakdown, customizable scoring, and much more is all there. Do you miss football already? Didn’t get into enough hoops leagues? Check out SnapDraft, where you can draft a new team every night and win some cash.



Atlanta 3 games



Jeff Teague was back from his ankle sprain in a big way on Sunday and should be good to go, but the Hawks play just three games this week. The same holds true for Josh Smith and Joe Johnson (despite struggling on Sunday). Marvin Williams and Zaza Pachulia are playing well for the red-hot Hawks, but should be on benches with three games.



Boston 4 games



Rajon Rondo sounds like he could be out until the All-Star break, and has mentioned targeting the Thunder game on Feb. 22 for his return from a wrist injury. He could easily return before then, but it sounds like Feb. 22 might be his personal target date. Fill-in Avery Bradley, who tweaked an ankle on Sunday, is worth a look, but hasn’t played well enough yet to be dropped into lineups. Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are all healthy and worth starting with four games this week. Jermaine O’Neal is shaky with a knee injury (shocking, I know), so Greg Stiemsma could be a sneaky deep-league play if JO is out.



Charlotte 3 games



Gerald Henderson is iffy with a tailbone injury and I’ve got him benched for this week, while D.J. Augustin (toe) doesn’t sound likely to play this week. Kemba Walker and Tyrus Thomas look like good plays, while B.J. Mullens and Boris Diaw are potential fantasy starters after playing well on Saturday. And if this is the best Charlotte has to offer, you can see why they aren’t very good. Matt Carroll, Bismack Biyombo and Derrick Brown are worth a look in deep leagues, but aren’t trustworthy. The Cats play just three times this week.



Chicago 4 games



Luol Deng was out again on Sunday and is too shaky to have in weekly lineups. Richard Hamilton was back and can be used, despite struggling with his shot last night. Derrick Rose, Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah remain must-starts, while Ronnie Brewer is also a possibility if Deng remains out.



Cleveland 3 games



Kyrie Irving, Antawn Jamison and Anderson Varejao are decent 3-game starters, while I wouldn’t risk starting Omri Casspi, Anthony Parker (back), Daniel Gibson (neck) or Ramon Sessions in most leagues this week.



Dallas 4 games



Jason Kidd sounds doubtful to play this week, meaning Roddy Beaubois is a nice option for Week 6. Vince Carter started at shooting guard on Sunday and should stay there as long as he’s healthy. He had 21 points and is worth a flier, while Jason Terry, Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion are also worth starting. I’d stay away from Brendan Haywood and Lamar Odom this week, unless you’re in a deep league.



Denver 4 games



Ty Lawson was out on Sunday, but was close to playing through his sprained ankle. He’s a risk-reward play for Week 6, but I’d probably run him out there. Andre Miller, Danilo Gallinari and Nene should all be good to go, while owners in deeper leagues may want to run with Rudy Fernandez or Arron Afflalo, who has been struggling. Al Harrington is playing well enough to be used in four-game weeks.



Detroit 5 games



Tayshaun Prince is back from a personal leave but struggled on Saturday, making him an intriguing play with five games this week. Brandon Knight, Rodney Stuckey and Greg Monroe all look like great plays, while Austin Daye is a risk-reward choice in deeper leagues. Ben Gordon’s shoulder injury makes him nearly unplayable, while Jonas Jerebko could have a few nice lines this week.



Golden State 3 games



They only go three times, but Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis and David Lee have must-start status in my book. Dorell Wright is also worth a look, but I bet you can find safer options than Andris Biedrins, Nate Robinson and Brandon Rush.



Houston 4 games



Kyle Lowry can’t throw it in the ocean right now, but remains a must-start point guard, while Samuel Dalembert and Luis Scola look automatic in weekly leagues. Kevin Martin has missed two straight with plantar fasciitis, but I think I’d roll the dice on him where I own him. Chase Budinger is coming on as Chandler Parsons struggles, so weigh options carefully with those two. And if Martin suffers a setback, Courtney Lee is also worth a look. Big man Jordan Hill has double-doubled in two straight in limited minutes, but he makes me nervous.



Indiana 4 games



Darren Collison, Paul George, Danny Granger, David West and Roy Hibbert all look good to go, although Hibbert struggled on Sunday. George Hill and Tyler Hansbrough might be worth a look in deep leagues, but I’d stay away if possible.



Clippers 4 games



Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups, Caron Butler, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan all look like solid plays, while Mo Williams is a deep-league option.



Lakers 3 games



Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum are must-starts, while Metta World Peace and Derek Fisher should be avoided with three games, if possible.



Memphis 5 games



With five games, Mike Conley, Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol are all must-starts, with O.J. Mayo, Tony Allen and Marreese Speights worth a look in weekly leagues. Mayo and Allen are the best options there, as Speights is struggling. There are conflicting reports as to whether or not Zach Randolph (knee) will be back this season or not, so using a roster spot to hold him is risky. He’s having another MRI on Monday.



Miami 4 games



LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are must-starts, while Mario Chalmers might be worth a look. Outside of that, I’d ignore Norris Coles, Shane Battier, Twitter as I would like to be, I'm there a lot. Check me out.



Milwaukee 4 games



Brandon Jennings and Drew Gooden are must-starts this week, while Stephen Jackson (coming off a suspension), Mike Dunleavy and Carlos Delfino are decent options. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is starting at PF, and Shaun Livingston at SG, but they are too inconsistent to be used if you have options. Ersan Ilyasova looks like a better bet. And in case you’ve been living in a cave, Andrew Bogut could be done for the season with a fractured ankle, making Gooden a top pickup.



Minnesota 4 games



Here’s where things get interesting. Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio are must-starts, while Michael Beasley is relevant again after Sunday’s line of 18 points, 12 boards, two steals, a block and two 3-pointers in 30 minutes. With four games, I’m rolling the dice on him. Darko Milicic has missed a couple games with the flu and Nikola Pekovic played well in his absence. It’s possible that Pekovic could stick in the starting five over Darko!, but I’m not sure I have the guts to use Pekovic this week. However, he does look like an interesting pickup in case it happens. Luke Ridnour is back from his injury, but hasn’t played well in his last couple games. As for Derrick Williams, I’m starting him in my 30-team leagues because I don’t have options, but he should probably be dropped for now, with Beasley back and ballin’. Wes Johnson and Martell Webster (Jose Juan Barea, ankle) are worth keeping an eye on, but I wouldn’t plan on using them.



New Jersey 4 games



Deron Williams and Kris Humphries look like auto-starts, while Anthony Morrow and MarShon Brooks, who returned from an Achilles injury on Sunday, look like solid options. Mehmet Okur could miss a few more games with a back problem, but Shelden Williams is not worthy of most starting lineups. And with the return of Brooks, Jordan Farmar is too risky in most leagues. As for Brook Lopez, he can be held if you think he’ll be back and dominant for the Nets in a few weeks. FYI, I’m not holding him in any of my leagues, but never really had an opportunity to do so.



New Orleans 4 games



Jarrett Jack, Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor all look like solid plays, while Marco Belinelli and Carl Landry are also worth a look. But Ariza and Bello are struggling, and Landry saw just 14 minutes on Sunday, making them all a little risky this week. Chris Kaman is on the trading block and has been shelved for the Hornets, so make sure he’s on your bench.



New York 4 games



The Knicks are a mess, but Carmelo Anthony should be back after a two-game layoff. Melo and Amare Stoudemire are must-starts, while guys like Toney Douglas, Landry Fields, Iman Shumpert and Bill Walker are all worth a look. I’m even considering Jeremy Lin in my 30-team league after he had nine points and six dimes on Saturday, as my only other options are Derek Fisher for three games, or Marcus Thornton for potentially zero. All of these guys are worth a look, but only Melo and Amare can be counted on, and that’s a stretch given what Melo did to his owners last week (two bad games, two DNPs). As for Baron Davis, he’ll play at some points, supposedly, but he’s not close to being ready for fantasy use as of now. I feel bad for you if you live and breathe the Knicks.



Oklahoma City 4 games



Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden are must-starts, while Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins are worth a starting look in deeper leagues. It’s sad that Ibaka’s minutes have been screwed with so badly by Scott Brooks, but Ibaka has played well lately, going for 20 points and 12 boards on Friday, while blocking 47 shots on the season. I say play him with four games.



Orlando 4 games



The Magic are simply a mess after being blown out in Indy on Sunday, but Ryan Anderson was back for that one. Dwight Howard, Anderson and Hedo Turkoglu look like good starts, despite some inconsistency, while Jason Richardson and J.J. Redick can both be used in some leagues. Richardson is really struggling and Stan Van Gundy could be considering a lineup change that would put Redick in the starting five. But that’s just my take. Chris Duhon played well on Sunday and will start for Jameer Nelson on Monday, and possibly for the whole week, but it will take a nice set of cajones to start Duhon (or Nelson) in weekly leagues this week. But for a one-game play on Monday, I’m good with Duhon.



Philadelphia 4 games



Spencer Hawes missed the week with his Achilles injury and I wasn’t happy about it. He seems to be nearing a return, but I don’t have the stones to play him as of now. Hopefully we get good news on Monday afternoon, as the Sixers host the Magic tonight. Andre Iguodala (trip-dub on Saturday), Jrue Holiday, Lou Williams and Elton Brand all looks like strong plays, while Evan Turner, Jodie Meeks and Thaddeus Young can be used in many leagues.



Phoenix 4 games



The Suns made a lineup change on Saturday and Jared Dudley responded to the start at SG with 20 points and a fat stat line in his return to the first unit. With four games, I say roll with him. Steve Nash suffered a thigh contusion courtesy of Marc Gasol’s knee and will be a game-time decision for Monday. If I owned him, I’d probably roll him out there, as they play the Mavs, which is Nash’s former team. We should have a Nash update before lineup deadlines on Monday. Channing Frye was also a starter over Markieff Morris on Saturday, but Morris was the better player. My gut says Frye will get it going soon, but weigh your options carefully before rolling with either player. I’m inclined to bench both of them. Grant Hill and Morris might be worth starting in your league, while C Marcin Gortat has become the textbook definition of a must-start player over the last few weeks.



Portland 4 games



Raymond Felton, despite struggling some, Wesley Matthews, ditto, Gerald Wallace, LaMarcus Aldridge and Marcus Camby all feel like good plays this week, while Nicolas Batum can be used in a pinch. The next time Camby or Wallace goes down, Batum will be worth using in most leagues.



Sacramento 3 games



Marcus Thornton’s thigh injury is still too shaky for him to be in lineups, while Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins are solid starts, despite the three-game week. Jimmer Fredette, Jason Thompson (ankle), Chuck Hayes (iffy with another shoulder injury), Francisco Garcia and Isaiah Thomas are all worth a look in some leagues, but aren’t great options with three games.



San Antonio 4 games



Gregg Popovich is up to his old tricks again and it’s nearly impossible to predict who will play well for the Spurs. I’d call Tony Parker and Tim Duncan must-starts, with guys like Richard Jefferson, Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair, Kawhi Leonard and Gary Neal possibilities. Neal blew up for 19 points and three 3-pointers on Sunday, but could easily disappear in his next one. And if you want to stash Manu Ginobili for the playoffs, go ahead and grab him.



Toronto 4 games



The Raptors started the following lineup on Sunday, to great results in a win over the Nets: PG Jose Calderon, SG Jerryd Bayless, SF DeMar DeRozan, PF James Johnson, C Amir Johnson. Calderon, Bayless and DeRozan all had big nights and I’m good with rolling with them this week. James Johnson wasn’t at his best, but I’m still fine with using him with four games this week, depending on options. He produced in most categories in Week 5, and should do so again this week. Amir Johnson was actually outplayed by Ed Davis Sunday, but as long as Amir is starting, he’s the option I’d go with. Andrea Bargnani isn’t likely to play this week (or next) after aggravating his calf injury. DeRozan looks like a must-start after Sunday’s season-high 27, and I wouldn’t hesitate to roll Bayless or Calderon out there, either. Leandro Barbosa has been hot off the Raps bench, but missed Sunday with a sprained ankle, making him a risky option in weekly leagues. Linas Kleiza is also worth consideration with four games this week, although he's been up and down in his last three. I am leaning towards starting him if you own him.



Utah 4 games



Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap should be in all lineups, despite Jefferson’s gimpy ankle. Just watch for news on Monday. Raja Bell suffered a minor groin injury on Saturday and I’m thinking it could be enough to keep him out for a couple games. If it happens, C.J. Miles, who scored 20 on Saturday, should start and looks like a real nice option for points, steals and threes, and will be even if he does stay on the bench. Gordon Hayward had a season-high 21 points on Saturday with a nice all-around line, but has been very inconsistent. I’d be hesitant to run him out there if I had options. Devin Harris continues to struggle, but did have 24 points and six assists on Wednesday. I’m going to roll him out there in my deeper leagues. As for Derrick Favors, as long as Millsap and Jefferson are healthy, you simply can’t play him in 12-team leagues.



Washington 4 games



Andray Blatche has been benched and is also dealing with a minor thigh injury. I’m not cutting him, but will bench him in weekly leagues, or dailies if I have other options. Let’s just hope he’s temporarily in Randy Wittman’s doghouse, and not permanently there. John Wall, Nick Young and JaVale McGee all look like must-start options, while I’d stay away from Rashard Lewis and Jan Vesely, who is starting over Blatche, for now. Jordan Crawford, as always, is worth a watchful eye, but is a very shaky fantasy play with Young playing well.

 

[HacheMan]

Millsap Manifesto

Funny how time flies when the schedule features a silly number of games packed into a relatively brief timeline, and as of Monday, the majority of the league’s teams were already approaching the one-third mark of this odd but entertaining NBA campaign. Here are some key topics the Stew has been pondering as we begin Week 6:


Exactly how valuable is Paul Millsap? Utah’s starting PF got off to a relatively unspectacular start (12.7 ppg in his first nine games), but lately Millsap has gone flat-out berserk, averaging 21.3 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.8 spg and 0.7 bpg on a high-volume 52.7 percent from the floor in his last nine games. That makes Millsap the No. 4 overall player in Basketball Monster’s 9-category rankings during that stretch (behind only Chris Paul, Kevin Durant and Kevin Love), and for the season, he has surged to No. 8 overall on the Basketball Monster leaderboard. It may be a bit ambitious to think that Millsap can remain in the top-10, but the 26-year-old is looking like no worse than a second-round value this season.

Is Blake Griffin finally ready to add “Consistent Shot-Blocker” to his resume? Griffin matched his old career-high with two impressive blocks against Memphis on Thursday, then set a new career-high with four blocks against the Nuggets Sunday night. That recent binge gives him an average of 1.3 bpg in his last eight games, many of them downright monstrous (including one Al Harrington layup that he swatted off the backboard Sunday evening).

So can he keep averaging 1-plus bpg going forward? Basically, it’s just a matter of effort. To be clear, I’m not suggesting that Griffin doesn’t play hard – in fact, he plays as hard as anyone in the league – but up until now, he hasn’t consistently tried to block shots. Given that this is still just an eight-game run it’s too soon to say that this trend will definitely continue, but if he stays focused on it, the only thing preventing him from dominant fantasy stats are missed free throws (which, unfortunately, remain a major issue).

Follow me on Twitter: @MattStroup

Is Kyle Lowry’s shooting slump a legitimate cause for concern? Lowry has shot a miserable 19.0 percent (8-of-42) in his last four games, including 13.8 percent (4-of-29) in his last three. That’s obviously cause for some concern, but it should be noted that the first of those four games was a triple-double and the second was an 8-8-10 line (on 2-of-16 shooting) before back-to-back quiet games in easy wins over the weekend. The bottom line: Lowry is struggling badly with his shot, but A) he has never been a marksman (42.7 percent during his breakout campaign last year); B) he has still averaged 9.0 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 7.3 apg and 1.8 spg during his slump and C) Houston continues to win and he should be allowed to play through it. Stay patient if he’s already on your roster, and if not, there’s a brief window here to attempt to buy low.

Is that breakout coming for Jrue Holiday? Since we haven’t done one in a couple of weeks, let’s break out a side-by-side stat comparison of Holiday in 2010-11 and Holiday through his first 20 games of 2011-12:

2010-11: 14.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 6.5 apg, 1.5 spg, 1.0 3s, 2.7 TOs, 44.6% FG, 82.3% FT

2011-12: 14.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.6 apg, 1.9 spg, 1.3 3s, 2.7 TOs, 43.7% FG, 87.2% FT

As you can see, his increases (in points, steals, 3s and free throw shooting) have mostly been marginal, while he has actually been worse in rebounds, assists and FG% this year. Add it up, and he’s No. 49 on Basketball Monster’s 9-category leaderboard, a solid position, but only slightly better than his final ranking last year (No. 58).

So what’s the story? One thing holding back his numbers is the fact that the Sixers have been surprisingly deep and balanced, the league’s only team with seven players averaging in double figures. Holiday does lead Philly in FG attempts per game (13.4), but the team just isn’t set up for one guy to consistently get big stats. He’s still plenty valuable and has a lot of upside at age 21, but he’s not on the brink of becoming a truly elite fantasy PG during this abbreviated season.

Is now a good time to buy low on Raymond Felton? Let me answer that succinctly: no. Quite simply, circumstances just aren’t lined up for Felton to put up big numbers going forward. Yes, he’s better than the 7.5 ppg and 4.3 apg he has averaged on 31.4 percent (11-of-35) shooting in his last four games, and he should be better than his career-lows of 10.4 ppg and 36.8 percent shooting. However, with Jamal Crawford playing plenty of backup PG (and averaging 16.5 ppg, 5.5 apg and 2.3 3s in his last four games), Felton frequently becomes an afterthought in the Portland offense (his 10.5 FG attempts per game are fifth on the team). There’s certainly room for some improvement if he starts shooting better, but his ceiling in this offense remains low as long as Crawford is healthy.

Is the fun over for Iman Shumpert? After posting an encouraging 18-5-7 line last Saturday (Jan. 21), the Knicks rookie averaged just 6.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.0 spg and 0.3 3s on 29.7 percent shooting (11-of-37) in four games last week. That, we can all agree, is atrocious – and makes Shumpert tough to start during the upcoming week – but I would advise staying patient if possible, because Shumpert is aggressive and talented enough to make a fantasy impact even if coming off the bench for New York. Situations like this one are why we have bench spots in fantasy leagues.

Is Kirk Hinrich’s return going to siphon value from Jeff Teague? It’s a logical question in theory, but if you’ve watched the Hawks this season, there’s no denying that Teague has been a major catalyst in Atlanta’s 15-6 start. He did have an ugly game on Friday night (in part because he sprained an ankle), but he bounced back with 24 points in just three quarters of a blowout win on Sunday and should retain something in the range of top-50 value going forward.

Is there reason to believe in Tiago Splitter? In his last four games, the Spurs backup big man has averaged 14.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 0.8 spg and 0.6 bpg on 67.4 percent FG shooting in 26 minutes per game. Granted, one of those games (a 25-10-4 line) came without Other Things to Consider: He’s still not a consistent scorer (and had just six points on Sunday), but James Johnson has averaged 12.0 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.7 spg and 2.5 bpg in his last six games … A big factor holding back Tyreke Evans’ fantasy value: a lack of threes. He’s at 24.4 percent (10-of-41) on the season, and has hit more than one three in a game just once all year … When Randy Wittman took over as Wizards coach, he publicly challenged JaVale McGee to lead the league in blocks. In Wittman’s first three games, McGee has averaged 4.3 bpg.

 

[HacheMan]

Early busts start to bounce back

By Brian McKitish
Special to ESPN.com

Don't look now, but some of this year's biggest early-season disappointments are finally starting to show signs of life. Just as players such as John Wall and Marcin Gortat have left their slow starts in the rearview mirror, fantasy owners are beginning to wonder if recent hot streaks for Serge Ibaka, Joakim Noah, Dorell Wright and Devin Harris are signs of things to come. Let's take a deeper look at some of the early-season bust candidates who have begun to turn things around after a month of play:


Serge Ibaka, C/PF, Oklahoma City Thunder: I probably should have included Serge on my list of per-minute warriors last week but didn't because despite his struggles, his shot-blocking stats have been close to preseason expectations. Much of Ibaka's early-season issues stemmed from a lack of confidence on the offensive end, but as the season has progressed so has Ibaka's confidence. Head coach Scott Brooks has noticed the improvement and has adjusted Ibaka's minutes accordingly. With 10.4 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.8 blocks in 30.2 minutes per game over his past five contests, Serge is looking much more like the player we hyped relentlessly in the preseason rather than the potential bust we saw in the early part of the season.


The Top 130

"Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2010-11 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses."1. LeBron James, SF, MIA (1)
2. Kevin Durant, SF, OKC (2)
3. Chris Paul, PG, LAC (3)
4. Kevin Love, PF, MIN (4)
5. Dwyane Wade, SG, MIA (11)
6. Derrick Rose, PG, CHI (5)
7. Dwight Howard, C, ORL (6)
8. Kobe Bryant, SG, LAL (7)
9. Russell Westbrook, PG, OKC (8)
10. Pau Gasol, PF/C, LAL (9)
11. Josh Smith, PF/SF, ATL (12)
12. Deron Williams, PG, NJ (14)
13. Carmelo Anthony, SF, NY (10)
14. Stephen Curry, PG/SG, GS (18)
15. Monta Ellis, PG/SG, GS (13)
16. Al Jefferson, C/PF, UTAH (15)
17. Kyle Lowry, PG, HOU (16)
18. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, POR (17)
19. Andrew Bynum, C, LAL (19)
20. Rudy Gay, SF, MEM (20)
21. Marc Gasol, C, MEM (25)
22. Blake Griffin, PF, LAC (22)
23. Amare Stoudemire, C/PF, NY (21)
24. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, DAL (23)
25. Ty Lawson, PG, DEN (24)
26. Danilo Gallinari, SF/PF, DEN (29)
27. John Wall, PG, WSH (30)
28. Steve Nash, PG, PHO (28)
29. Paul Pierce, SF/SG, BOS (34)
30. Ricky Rubio, PG, MIN (31)
31. Andre Iguodala, SF/SG, PHI (27)
32. Rajon Rondo, PG, BOS (26)
33. Brandon Jennings, PG, MIL (39)
34. JaVale McGee, C, WSH (33)
35. Marcin Gortat, C, PHO (36)
36. Chris Bosh, PF/C, MIA (32)
37. Joe Johnson, SG/SF, ATL (35)
38. Greg Monroe, PF/C, DET (38)
39. David Lee, PF/C, GS (37)
40. Kevin Martin, SG, HOU (40)
41. James Harden, SG, OKC (41)
42. Mike Conley, PG, MEM (53)
43. Paul Millsap, PF, UTAH (50)
44. Roy Hibbert, C, IND (51)
45. Danny Granger, SF, IND (45)
46. Jrue Holiday, PG, PHI (46)
47. Gerald Wallace, SF/PF, POR (48)
48. Ryan Anderson, PF, ORL (49)
49. DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, SAC (52)
50. Nene Hilario, C/PF, DEN (54)
51. Kyrie Irving, PG, CLE (55)
52. Marcus Thornton, SG, SAC (43)
53. Jose Calderon, PG, TOR (56)
54. Kris Humphries, PF, NJ (57)
55. Carlos Boozer, PF, CHI (60)
56. Tony Parker, PG, SA (61)
57. Luol Deng, SF, CHI (47)
58. Tyreke Evans, PG/SG, SAC (58)
59. Andrea Bargnani, C/PF, TOR (44)
60. Jarrett Jack, PG/SG, NO (63)
61. Tyson Chandler, C, NY (65)
62. Joakim Noah, C/PF, CHI (68)
63. Serge Ibaka, C/PF, OKC (74)
64. Eric Gordon, SG, NO (59)
65. Dorell Wright, SF, GS (81)
66. Kemba Walker, PG, CHA (94)
67. DeAndre Jordan, C, LAC (83)
68. Jeff Teague, PG, ATL (66)
69. Wesley Matthews, SG/SF, POR (71)
70. Raymond Felton, PG, POR (62)
71. Ray Allen, SG, BOS (64)
72. Anderson Varejao, PF/C, CLE (75)
73. Jason Terry, SG, DAL (72)
74. Spencer Hawes, C, PHI (73)
75. Caron Butler, SF, LAC (85)
76. Kevin Garnett, PF, BOS (79)
77. Chauncey Billups, PG/SG, LAC (76)
78. Stephen Jackson, SG/SF, MIL (67)
79. Andray Blatche, PF, WSH (70)
80. Darren Collison, PG, IND (78)
81. Antawn Jamison, PF, CLE (80)
82. Hedo Turkoglu, SF, ORL (82)
83. Al Harrington, PF, DEN (84)
84. Luis Scola, PF, HOU (86)
85. Tim Duncan, PF/C, SA (87)
86. Nicolas Batum, SF, POR (88)
87. Iman Shumpert, PG, NY (77)
88. David West, PF, IND (90)
89. Paul George, SF/SG, IND (91)
90. Samuel Dalembert, C, HOU (93)
91. Nick Young, SG, WSH (96)
92. Gerald Henderson, SG, CHA (95)
93. DeMar DeRozan, SG, TOR (92)
94. D.J. Augustin, PG, CHA (69)
95. Brandon Knight, PG/SG, DET (97)
96. Emeka Okafor, C, NO (99)
97. Boris Diaw, PF/SF/C, CHA (98)
98. Manu Ginobili, SG, SA (101)
99. Lou Williams, PG/SG, PHI (107)
100. Michael Beasley, SF/PF, MIN (117)
101. Andre Miller, PG, DEN (110)
102. Devin Harris, PG, UTAH (116)
103. Jameer Nelson, PG, ORL (100)
104. Elton Brand, PF, PHI (104)
105. Rodney Stuckey, PG/SG, DET (105)
106. Jamal Crawford, SG/PG, POR (109)
107. Jared Dudley, SF/SG, PHO (112)
108. Jason Kidd, PG, DAL (102)
109. Channing Frye, PF/C, PHO (89)
110. James Johnson, SF, TOR (NR)
111. MarShon Brooks, SG, NJ (115)
112. Tiago Splitter, PF, SA (NR)
113. Trevor Ariza, SF/SG, NO (111)
114. Drew Gooden, PF, MIL (NR)
115. Tyrus Thomas, PF, CHA (120)
116. Mo Williams, PG, LAC (NR)
117. Shawn Marion, SF/PF, DAL (123)
118. Marcus Camby, C/PF, POR (NR)
119. Brook Lopez, C, NJ (NR)
120. Byron Mullens, C, CHA (106)
121. O.J. Mayo, SG, MEM (NR)
122. Mario Chalmers, PG, MIA (103)
123. Arron Afflalo, SG, DEN (119)
124. Baron Davis, PG, NY (NR)
125. Tayshaun Prince, SF, DET (124)
126. Anthony Morrow, SG/SF, NJ (122)
127. Rodrigue Beaubois, PG/SG, DAL (NR)
128. Zach Randolph, PF, MEM (125)
129. Tony Allen, SG, MEM (118)
130. C.J. Miles, SF/SG, UTAH (NR)




Joakim Noah, C/PF, Chicago Bulls: Perhaps in response to sharp media criticism of his effort on the court early in the season, Noah has upped his intensity in recent action and it's shown in the box scores as he's averaged 12.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.5 blocks in 32.8 minutes over his past four games. It is nice to see that Noah can flip the switch like this, but can we trust him to keep playing at this pace? There are still some risks, given his injury history and early-season play, but it looks like he's finally figured things out and can be relied on for rebounding, steals and blocks going forward.


Dorell Wright, SF, Golden State Warriors: After last year's breakout campaign, Wright started the 2011-12 season looking like the bust of the season. With averages of just 5.7 points, 4.5 rebounds, 0.8 steals and 0.6 3-pointers after his first eight games, Wright was a borderline drop candidate in the middle of January. But since then, he's posted 14.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 2.5 3-pointers in his past nine games. The good news is that he's finally starting to get involved in the Warriors' offense, the bad news is that we still can't expect him to be as dominant as he was last season when he's only attempting 10.0 shots per game compared to 14.0 last season.


Devin Harris, PG, Utah Jazz: As far as non-injury busts go, Harris is probably the league's biggest disappointment. After 18 contests, Harris is shooting just 41.9 percent from the floor with averages of just 9.2 points, 4.6 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.9 3-pointers in 25.9 minutes per game. Once revered for his ability to get to the free throw line, Harris has lacked aggression and is attempting only 3.1 foul shots per game. Like Jazz coach Ty Corbin, I have stubbornly stuck with Harris in a few leagues in the hopes that he would find his rhythm and provide his typical in points, assists, steals and free throw percentage. Thankfully, Harris has started to show signs of life with 14.3 points and 5.3 assists in his past three games. Corbin wants to see him be more aggressive, and it looks like Harris is slowly beginning to turn his season around. I'm not ready to declare him all the way back, but he should be scooped up in leagues if an impatient owner dropped him too soon.


Rankings News and Notes



• It took Paul Millsap some time to settle into his role in the deep Utah Jazz frontcourt, but we knew the workhorse would get his eventually. With 19.8 points, 10.8 boards, 1.2 steals and 1.0 blocks over his past five games, Millsap is finally posting the numbers we've come to expect from him.


• Tony Parker has completely taken control of the San Antonio Spurs since Manu Ginobili's injury, posting 18.1 points along with 7.9 assists and 1.0 steals per game in January. Parker has always been a great scorer, but we've never seen him distribute the ball like he's doing right now. Expect him to continue to play at this level at least until Ginobili returns to the lineup.


• Speaking of underrated point guards, Mike Conley is quietly having his best season as a pro. With 12.9 points, 7.5 assists, 2.5 steals and 0.8 3-pointers per game, Conley looks as confident and aggressive as he ever has. Currently the seventh-ranked point guard on our Player Rater when sorted by averages, Conley looks to be in the midst of his breakout season.


• It's been a roller-coaster ride for owners of any Phoenix Suns not named Steve Nash or Marcin Gortat. Alvin Gentry has been tinkering with his lineups, giving Jared Dudley and Channing Frye owners headaches. At some point, Frye owners are going to have to come to terms with the fact that he's a streaky player. We've been down this road many times in the past with him, so his owners will have to wait out this slump. As for Dudley, he appears to have regained his starting role after going off for 20 points with three steals in 42 minutes on Saturday night.



• With averages of 12.9 points, 10.5 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 1.1 blocks this month, Kris Humphries has been one of the league's most productive big men for fantasy leaguers. Many have questioned how Brook Lopez's impending return will impact Humphries, but I'm not too worried about him, given the way he competes on both sides of the court. Remember, Humphries was a double-double machine with Lopez on the court last season.


• James Johnson's athleticism is off the charts, and while it hasn't helped his consistency on the offensive end, it's certainly showing up defensively. With 9.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 2.2 blocks in 28.2 minutes over his past five contests, Johnson is a must-add for anyone in need of steals and blocks in fantasy leagues.



• With D.J. Augustin out of action, rookie Kemba Walker has taken charge of the Bobcats' offense, with 16.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.4 3-pointers per game over his past five games. Walker won't be able to keep up this kind of pace once Augustin returns, but he's proven that he can be a big-time, multicategory producer even as a rookie.


• It feels like we've been talking about Rodrigue Beaubois' upside forever, so it's nice to finally see the 23-year-old having success in relief of Jason Kidd in Dallas. Roddy is super athletic and can contribute in multiple fantasy categories, provided that he can secure enough minutes in the Dallas Mavericks' rotation. With 11.6 points, 4.0 assists, 1.2 steals, 2.4 blocks and 1.0 3-pointers over his past five games, Roddy should be a fantasy force at least until Kidd returns to the lineup. Even then, he could still hold some value if he continues to play at this pace.

 

[HacheMan]

Dunk of All Dunks?

Monday was another crazy night in the Association, and I’ve decided that managing a winning fantasy hoops team might be the most difficult thing to do in fantasy sports. It’s an everyday job, and there are lineup tweaks and injuries every single night. Especially this season, as every hour seems to bring a new injury. Yesterday’s victims included Al Jefferson, Andray Blatche, MarShon Brooks, Jameer Nelson and Tuesday's Injury Report




Al Jefferson sat with a sore right foot, and the fact he’s taken two injections, is in a walking boot and said he felt like he was “walking on glass” during his last game is a little scary. Scary enough that I picked up Derrick Favors in a couple leagues on Monday afternoon. Favors wasn’t great last night, but should be worth owning for as long as Jefferson is out. Jefferson remains day-to-day, but could miss the whole week, so while Favors isn’t a must-own guy, he's nice to have if you’ve got the room.



Andray Blatche will miss three to five weeks with a strained calf. Ironically, I had to cut him in one league to get a healthy player (Favors), and did so about three hours before this news was announced. So I’m glad I made the move. I just traded MarShon Brooks to get Blatche, and it ended up being a trade of shall we say, garbage for junk. More on Brooks in a minute. Blatche will be replaced by both Jan Vesely and Trevor Booker, but Booker looks like the best option for now after going for 14 points, nine boards and two blocks off the bench last night.



MarShon Brooks has a fractured toe and has been shelved indefinitely. Anthony Morrow is the guy to pick up here, as DeShawn Stevenson (knee) and Damion James (foot, out for season) are also in trouble. I am dropping Brooks and Blatche across the board, picking up guys like Michael Beasley, Vince Carter, Jared Dudley, Jerryd Bayless, Mike Dunleavy and, in some cases, Chris Duhon and Derrick Favors (short term).



Jameer Nelson is out for the week with a concussion, meaning Chris Duhon should get all the minutes he can handle. If you were late to the party and missed out on Duhon, you’ll be happy to know he had three points and two assists in 35 minutes last night. But the good news is he played 35 minutes, so there’s a chance he’ll pay off with three games left this week.



Nicolas Batum went down at the end of Monday’s game after twisting his left knee and is awaiting an MRI on Tuesday morning. This one could go either way – he could be fine, or be out for an extended time. He had a nice line with 15 points, four 3-pointers, a steal and a block, and as an owner in several leagues, I’m hoping he’s OK.



Steve Nash was out with a thigh contusion and will be iffy for Wednesday at New Orleans.



Carmelo Anthony is questionable for tonight’s game, but my gut says he’s playing, and that he’ll play well. He really burned his owners last week, especially those of us in weekly lineup leagues, but I’m expecting a bounce back this time around. If he doesn’t play tonight, he should be ready by Thursday, and could give owners three nice games. But I think he’s going to do it four times.



Stephen Curry says his ankle is still bothering him, but he’s looked good playing through it. All you can do is roll him out there and hope for the best, which is exactly what I’m doing in several leagues right now.



Dunk of the Year?




Blake Griffin may have had the dunk of the year without even dunking, as he threw one down over Kendrick Perkins that was basically unforgettable. I’m not sure what else to say about it, other than that the pass from Paul was just about as good as the dunk, in a boring, textbook sort of way. Griffin's blast quickly sent this one from LeBron James over John Lucas to No. 2 on the list.



Game News and Notes



Magic Fall To Sixers



Ryan Anderson had 14 points and 20 rebounds in another loss by the Magic, signaling that he’s back, while J.J. Redick started for injured Jason Richardson and had 10 points and three 3-pointers. I predicted Redick getting a starting job on Sunday, and regardless of how injured Richardson’s knee is, Redick could get a real chance here going forward. He’s not must-own, but he’s nice to have right now. Hedo Turkoglu hit 1-of-9 shots, which was good for negative fantasy points in many leagues. Hopefully he’s ready to break out of the funk soon, as he’s scored a total of 13 points over his last three games, hitting 4-of-24 shots over that stretch. Had I done proper research, I would have benched him this week. The Magic have lost six of eight games, and trade rumors involving Dwight Howard heated up again last night, as Stephen Jackson missed a game AFTER his one-game suspension ended. There’s a chance he could be heading to New Jersey, but there’s also a chance he is simply leashed to a chain inside the doghouse of Scott Skiles. Whatever the case, bench Jackson until we see him back on the court.



Jrue Holiday was terrible for the Sixers last night, but they won, despite putting just three guys in double digits, led by Andre Iguodala’s 14 points. Holiday’s assists have been disappointing this season and he was just 3-of-11 for six points and six dimes last night, but he looks like a great buy-low candidate to me.<!--RW-->



Bulls Beat Wizards



Richard Hamilton tweaked his groin injury and missed last night’s game, while Luol Deng continues to sit with his wrist injury. Both are too shaky to start right now, and are borderline droppable. I might hold onto Deng if I owned him, but the wrist could be a problem all year. No one would blame you for dropping him, but just know the move could backfire (or make you look like a genius, as well as help you sleep better at night). Derrick Rose went off for a season-high 35 with eight dimes and three blocks, and says his toe is feeling better (yes!).



JaVale McGee had another big night with 16 points, nine boards and three more blocks, and could benefit from the loss of Blatche.



Heat Over Hornets



LeBron James and Dwyane Wade went off last night, while Chris Bosh cooled off. You could see this coming with Bosh, as he was unlikely to keep up the dominant run he was on, especially with Wade finally healthy again. Mike Miller had 14 points, but hurt his shooting hand, and while he’s intriguing, the injury problems are going to linger, so I’d ignore him.



The Hornets box score is flat-out boring, although Greivis Vasquez is starting to come on a bit. If you’re in a deep league, he’s worth watching over the next couple games after scoring 11 last night and handing out eight dimes in his previous game.



Minnesota Beats Houston



Nikola Pekovic started again for the Wolves, with eight points and seven boards in just 19 minutes, as Darko Milicic sat out again due to a lingering illness. Pekovic isn’t a must-own player, but could be if he steals Darko’s job. Michael Beasley has proven me wrong and went off for a season-high 34 points off the bench, which is a Timberwolves record for a non-starter. He had 18 in his previous game and now looks like a must-own player now that his foot injury is behind him. He’s helped by the fact the Wolves are 10-11, and has rendered Derrick Williams useless (drop him). Ricky Rubio blew up for 18 points, eight rebounds and 11 assists, and is a candidate for waiver-wire pickup of the year. Or he was a great late draft choice. Either way, you have to think his first triple-double is just around the corner.



Kevin Martin returned for the Rockets and had 29 points after missing a couple games with plantar fasciitis, while Kyle Lowry had just 11 points and three dimes in 26 minutes. Goran Dragic hit just 2-of-10 shots, but played 24 minutes, and is easing his way into a timeshare with Lowry. I still think Lowry will bounce back and start taking over games again, so now is a good buy-low opportunity with him.



Bucks Drop Pistons



Drew Gooden remains a must-own player and had 16 points, five boards and a block, while Brandon Jennings had 21 points, and Mike Dunleavy filled the hole left by Stephen Jackson with 20 points. Eventually Jackson should hurt Dunleavy’s numbers, but if you rolled the dice on him for this week, he’s off to a good start. Dunleavy has scored 17, 18, 4, 15 and 20 points in his last five games with seven treys.



Brandon Knight’s five-game week got off to a horrendous start, as he missed all four of his shots and failed to score last night. He scored 20 on Friday and should bounce back. I rolled the dice on Tayshaun Prince in a league or two with five games this week and he had 14 points, eight boards, a steal and a block, but the Pistons only play three times in Week 7. I’ve already dropped him in anticipation of that one. Greg Monroe and Rodney Stuckey were solid last night, while Austin Daye played a team-high 37 minutes. He hit just 4-of-14 shots (10 points, 5 assists, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks) and could take a hit in minutes when Ben Gordon is back from his shoulder injury, but if you want to pick him up, do it. The Pistons still have four games remaining this week.



Spurs Beat Grizzlies



The Spurs were led by Matt Bonner’s 15 points and five 3-pointers in the win, and while I don’t have the guts to own Bonner, he’s hit 20 3-pointers over his last six games. Deal with him at your own risk, but if you’re desperate for threes, he could fill a void. Gary Neal backed up his 19-point effort with zero points in 15 minutes on Monday. As usual, Gregg Popovich’s players are impossible to get a feel for.



Rudy Gay was horrendous Monday, missing all seven of his shots for one point in the loss. He’ll be fine, and consider this a nice buy-low opportunity. O.J. Mayo led the way with 17 points off the bench, and is worth an add in most leagues, hitting double figures in scoring in seven of his last eight games.



Dallas Downs Suns



Vince Carter started again and had 21 points and five 3-pointers in the win. He had 21 in his previous game and I picked him up and plugged him into several leagues Monday afternoon. The next injury is probably just moments away, but grabbing him makes sense right now. Delonte West came out of nowhere for a season-high 25 points, with five 3-pointers on 9-of-12 shooting off the bench. Roddy Beaubois is a nice player to own with Jason Kidd out for the week, but had just eight points and seven assists last night as the starting point guard. Yes, Dirk Nowitzki played again, but had 10 points on 4-of-10 shooting, trying his owners’ patience along the way.



The Suns got 17 points, 10 boards and four blocks from Marcin Gortat, who is easily a must-start player right now. Steve Nash was out with a thigh injury and owners have to hope he’s ready for the next one. Jared Dudley had 15 points and three 3-pointers in another start and looks like a safe add in any league, while Channing Frye struggled again. Frye is starting again and could get hot at any time, while Sebastian Telfair had 13 points and six dimes in place of Nash. Just keep an eye on Telfair in case Nash’s injury lingers.



Jazz Beat Blazers



The Jazz, who were without Al Jefferson (foot), beat the Blazers on Monday behind 19 points, 15 boards and two blocks from Paul Millsap. Derrick Favors started for Jefferson, but had just eight points, six boards and no blocks. If Big Al will miss more time, and he might, Favors could have a solid week. Devin Harris had 13 points and four assists, and is finally showing signs of life, while Josh Howard had 11 points, seven boards and four assists in a start for Raja Bell (groin). Howard, and not C.J. Miles got the start for Bell last night, and is worth a look for however long he can stay healthy. But my guess is he might be hurt by the time you change your underwear. Miles had 15 points off the bench, and I’m more comfortable owning him than Howard right now, although my feathers have been ruffled by the fact Miles came off the bench behind Howard. As for the Blazers, outside of Nicolas Batum’s knee injury, I don’t see much relevant to talk about in terms of fantasy from last night.



Clippers Dominate Thunder



The Clippers looked fantastic last night and I am struggling to find a reason they can’t win it all this year. Chris Paul led the way with 26 points, 14 dimes and two 3-pointers on 12-of-16 shooting, while Blake Griffin and Caron Butler each scored 22 points, with strong all-around lines. Griffin blocked two more shots, and has added that to his arsenal this season, especially lately. DeAndre Jordan had 11 points, 11 boards and three more blocks, and is a must-start fantasy center this season, despite his woes at the free throw line. And while Griffin is taking some heat for his free throw shooting and turnovers, if you punted those categories and don’t include them in his rankings, he comes in at No. 13 overall on Basketballmonster.com. And if you came here looking for Blake’s dunk, I included it at the beginning of the column.



The Thunder got monster lines out of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, but the Clippers were dominant in this one. Daequan Cook somehow had four 3-pointers and 12 points off the bench, but is only worth a look in deeper leagues, while Serge Ibaka disappointed in 31 minutes with just two points, five boards and a block. I’m going to call it a case of DJ-itis.

 

[HacheMan]

The Real Bayless

Who will get the minutes? It’s a simple question that rarely has a simple answer.

Coaches are constantly tinkering and toying with their rotations. Sometimes it has to with injuries and in other instances, it’s a result of ineffective play from a certain player. The impact this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Every Tuesday for the rest of the season, I’ll explore a certain aspect of half the league’s rotations while attempting to get inside coaches’ heads. The idea isn’t to tell you what Kevin Love and LeBron James are going to do -- it’s to decipher how much burn fringe players are going to get.

Here’s last week’s Position: Shooting guard
The Raptors have played eight games without Andrea Bargnani (calf) this season. They are 1-7 in those contests, with the one win coming in Jerryd Bayless’ first start of the season.

Coach Dwane Casey isn’t giving Bayless all the credit, but it’s surely not a coincidence. He has to see that the 2008 No. 11 overall pick is a difference-maker on both ends of the floor. In 14 starts a year ago, Bayless averaged 18.1 points, 6.7 assists, 3.6 rebounds, 1.2 treys and 1.0 steals. We can safely project top-50 fantasy status for Bayless anytime he’s getting 32-35 minutes per game.

No one knows right now if Bayless will continue to start. Here’s what we do know:

* DeMar DeRozan has started 168 career NBA games. One of those (Sunday night) has come at small forward, and the other 167 were at shooting guard.

* Leandro Barbosa (ankle) was out Sunday. He expects to play Tuesday.

* It’s going to be really tough to play Bayless and Jose Calderon together against big shooting guards like Joe Johnson (Tuesday) and Dwyane Wade (Sunday).

* Bargnani says this calf strain is worse than the one that cost him six games earlier this month. He’s unlikely to play for at least a couple weeks.

* The Raptors are averaging 87.5 points per game, 28th in the NBA. They desperately need some punch.

* ESPN’s Marc Stein reported Friday that the Raptors are open to trading Calderon. That's nothing new, Calderon has been on the block for more than a year.

Add this all up and what we have is a must-add. Even if Bayless is coming off the bench for now, the Raptors need him for 25-plus minutes per night. An intermittent starting role based on matchups and a possible promotion over Calderon is very possible.

BOBCATS
Position: Sixth man
With D.J. Augustin (foot) and Corey Maggette (hamstring) nowhere close, there are a lot of minutes and shots to go around. There’s also a desperate need for offense. Enter Reggie Williams, who is finally ready after offseason knee surgery. Coach Paul Silas sounds excited.

“He really understands the game,” Silas said. “He’ll really help our offense. How he passes, how he shoots. Two or three weeks from now I think he’s going to be unbelievable.”

In 104 career games with the Warriors, Williams averaged 10.6 points and 1.3 3-pointers per game in just 23.1 minutes. Even though Augustin, Kemba Walker and Position: Small forward/shooting guard
Did anyone really think that Stephen Jackson in Milwaukee with Scott Skiles was ever going to work? Jackson has been suspended by the team, suspended by the league, took a DNP-CD on Monday night and is now predictably angry. He’s also shooting a career-low 36.7 percent from the field and averaging just 12.8 points per game.

"I ain't surprised. They know how I feel. It ain't no secret," Jackson said. "Everybody knows the situation. I'm going to cheer the team on and do what I've got to do. ... My situation is going to get better soon. But until then I'm going to support these guys and continue to collect my check.”

It sounds like Jackson expects to be dealt out of town, but the interesting part is that would not even clear up the swingman spots in Milwaukee. Shaun Livingston, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Carlos Delfino, Mike Dunleavy, Beno Udrih and Ersan Ilyasova are all candidates for 20-25 minutes on any given night. All upside is capped, meaning we can safely ignore game-to-game outbursts.

BULLS
Position: Center
Perhaps all Joakim Noah needed was a little spark to set him off. He got that last week when Taj Gibson was sidelined by an ankle injury.

Gibson is back now. But in five games since that injury, Noah is averaging 34.2 minutes. And in the last three -- when Gibson has been active -- Noah is averaging 35.1 minutes. He’s earned that with renewed aggression and the kind of well-rounded game that makes him a top-40 kind of fantasy player. Over those last five games, Noah is getting 13.2 points, 12.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.4 blocks, 1,0 steals and shooting 64.1 percent from the field. Gross. It's smooth sailing now that the torch has been lit.

CAVS
Position: Shooting guard
Anthony Parker’s back issues have turned chronic. He aggravated the injury again on Sunday and at age 36, it’s not going away. Daniel Gibson would normally get the starting nod here and be staring at 32-35 minutes, but he can’t even turn his head right now due to a neck injury.

For the immediate future, former undrafted free agent Alonzo Gee projects as the likely starting shooting guard. In 34 starts last year, he averaged 8.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, 0.9 assists and 0.4 treys. Move along.

Editor’s Note: For exclusive columns, chats, pickup advice, weekly rankings and much more, check out the Season Pass!

CELTICS
Position: Power forward
When Jermaine O’Neal missed a game back on Jan. 2, Greg Stiemsma got the nod. Over the last three games that O’Neal has missed, it’s been Brandon Bass in the starting lineup.

It’s a small yet key note here because O’Neal is hurt so often and the Celtics could be looking at major changes around the trade deadline. Bass’ per-36 minutes this season are: 14.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.9 blocks. And over the last 15 games, Bass is all the way up at 30.0 minutes per game. Coach Doc Rivers has no problems leaning on him.

HAWKS
Position: Point guard
There was never going to be a real battle here. Kirk Hinrich is healthy now, but he’s 30 and has an expiring contract. Jeff Teague has led the team to a 15-6 start and is a part of the future at age 23. A Hinrich trade for a big man at the March 15 deadline is a reasonable expectation.

The main reason Teague’s minutes have been limited over the last three games is his minor ankle sprain. After resting in Sunday’s blowout and getting an off day Monday, he should quickly ramp back up to 32-35 minutes per game.

HEAT
Position: Point guard
LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have all been active together 11 times this year. In those games, Mario Chalmers is averaging just 6.7 shot attempts while playing 27.0 minutes per game.

It’s the same story down the line throughout the Heat’s lineup. When the Big 3 are all healthy, the minutes and shots are squeezed so tight that no one else can hang on. It’s not Norris Cole or Shane Battier or Position: Point guard
Iman Shumpert is taking a lot of the blame for the Knicks’ offensive woes. The wildly-athletic rookie has been removed as the starting point guard and coach Mike D’Antoni sounds serious about it.

“He’s learning the league. We’re learning where to play him,” D’Antoni said. “The 1 spot is not a natural one. It’s too much.”

That puts Toney Douglas back in the starting five, at least until Baron Davis (back) is ready a week or two from now. We can expect 25-30 minutes for Douglas, but the problem is his shot selection and lack of playmaking ability. He’s shooting 32.3 percent on the year and is averaging 2.6 assists as a point guard. Consider Douglas a mere 3-point specialist and Shumpert waiver-wire material in most formats.

MAGIC
Position: Shooting guard
When the Magic decided to bring back Jason Richardson in free agency, I was confused. They had a homegrown talent ready to go at shooting guard, J-Rich is 31 and he has a history of knee issues. Now they are likely regretting that four-year, $25 million deal.

Richardson is shooting 41.4 percent from the field and averaging just 9.9 points in 28.3 minutes per game. He had to sit out on Monday due to his sore knee on a back-to-back. Meanwhile, J.J. Redick is shooting 42.4 percent from the field and averaging 11.4 points in 26.3 minutes.

It’s not a stretch to suggest that Redick is the better player right now, period. There’s enough warning flags with J-Rich to project 27-30 minutes per game for Redick the rest of the way. He may not officially win the starting job, but Richardson’s missed games and lack of in-game production will be enough for Redick to sustain solid low-end fantasy value.

NETS
Position: Shooting guard
When healthy, MarShon Brooks has proven to be a starting-caliber NBA shooting guard as a rookie. The problem is he’s not healthy.

Achilles’ tendonitis is a serious injury because rupturing the tendon can ruin a career. Ask Elton Brand. And on Monday, it was revealed that Brooks has a broken toe. So the Nets are wisely going to exercise caution with their 23-year-old prospect.

"We want to try to keep this kid in a healthy place," coach Avery Johnson said. "We’re trying to figure out how we’re going to monitor his minutes, and maybe he’s not gonna play 48 or 38 minutes again this year. Maybe it’s 28."

The biggest beneficiary here is Anthony Morrow, who now has a serious chance to lead the league in 3-pointers made. As a starter this year, Morrow is averaging 31.6 minutes per game. That’s a fair projection going forward with Brooks, Damion James (out for season, foot) and Position: Power forward
When Austin Daye can comfortably defend the opponents’ power forward, he gets major minutes. Over the last four games, Daye’s minutes have spiked to 30.5 per night off the bench because he faced the likes of Josh Smith, Thaddeus Young and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. He’s responded by averaging 14.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.6 3-pointers in his last five.

But against bigger teams, it’s Ben Wallace/Jonas Jerebko time. At 205 pounds, it’s impossible for coach Lawrence Frank to use Daye with the already small lineup of Brandon Knight, Rodney Stuckey and Tayshaun Prince. In the first 18 games of the year, Daye topped 20 minutes once. He is a matchup play with upside.

SIXERS
Position: Shooting guard
Only two players on the Sixers are guaranteed 30 minutes every single night: Andre Iguodala and Jrue Holiday. Every other position is based on game flow and feel from Coach of the Year Doug Collins.

For Jodie Meeks, game flow means making 3-pointers. And over the last few weeks, he’s been able to do just that. In the last 10 games, Meeks is playing 29.2 minutes per game and making 3.0 treys per night on 41.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc. He’s played 30 minutes or more five times in his last 11 games. Owners in need of a 3-point specialist should look no further.

WIZARDS
Position: Power forward
Perhaps Jan Vesely really did deserve to be the No. 6 overall pick in the draft. But I just don’t see it. And it doesn’t look like new head coach Randy Wittman does either. Vesely has started the last three games, but is averaging just 3.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, 0.0 blocks and 2.0 assists in 23.3 minutes. That’s just unbelievably poor per-minute production.

So now that Andray Blatche (calf) is out 3-5 weeks, Wittman is in a tight spot. As a dead team, the Wizards need to get Vesely valuable minutes as a part of the young core. But it’s obvious that Trevor Booker is the far superior option if the team wants to win.

The answer will likely be a timeshare. While Vesely has gotten those 23.3 minutes over the last three, Booker has gotten 22.6. But note that Monday night, Booker got 26 while Vesely got 15. Unless the Flying Czech suddenly gets going, that’s the kind of split to expect.

 

[HacheMan]

Anderson Varejao sees 20/20

Management has me on some other projects, so this Dose is going to be a quick-hitting review of Tuesday’s news.



Follow me on Twitter here.



INJURY NEWS



Manu Ginobili started doing “basketball work” and is about a week away from performing in one-on-one drills. This isn’t a hamstring tear or muscle ailment that is subject to aggravation, but rather a broken bone that has a definitive timeline more or less. Ginobili’s return will be guided by the doctor’s recommendation on what timeline is needed for the bones to properly set, and from there it will be an issue of pain management and slowly building up the small muscles around the hand so the hand itself is stable. All of this is more or less a cookie-cutter transaction from a doctor’s perspective, so if Ginobili is sitting around in your daily league go ahead and pick him up.



Brook Lopez (foot) ran for the first time on Monday, and while I have him coming back a few weeks after Manu I’d also be willing to take a chance on him with what we know. Just look at your schedule and figure out if you can swing things with Lopez rotting on your bench. So far, it sounds like his rehab is going well, and he could be a force for your squad down the stretch.



Richard Hamilton (groin) could be out “a while” after he got up for Sunday's big game against the Heat and Tom Thibodeau didn’t stop him. This means that Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer deserve a close look, because no matter what Hamilton or Luol Deng (wrist) say, they could be missing some time.



Rajon Rondo (wrist) did not play on Tuesday and one way or another somebody is lying about his return date. Doc Rivers said he is probably targeting Friday for his return.



MarShon Brooks (Achilles) is out indefinitely, and I feel a little lame for not raising the red flag a little higher. I did initially, but was convinced by team reports that he was healthy when my gut said otherwise.



George Hill will not travel with the Pacers for their next two games after suffering a chip fracture in his ankle, and it sounds like he could be out a week or more. This takes some pressure off of Darren Collison and owners in deep leagues should watch Lance Stephenson.



Steve Nash (thigh) is a game-time decision for Wednesday’s game, but if he can’t go Ronnie Price isn’t playing well enough to be used unless you’re semi-desperate. Sebastian Telfair actually played better than Price on Monday and could also get the start.



The Blazers website tweeted news that Nicolas Batum had a bone contusion on his left knee, which in other words is a bone bruise. The tweet did not say that there was ligament damage, but we can’t rule that out as a large percentage of bone bruises come with torn ligaments. Bone bruises also can come with torn cartilage and restrict the growth of cartilage, so this isn’t a small thigh contusion or anything. The fact that he is being evaluated in a week should let owners know that this is a week-to-week injury and not day-to-day, as the Blazers website would like you to believe. Jamal Crawford, Wesley Matthews, and Raymond Felton all deserve to be owned outside of terribly shallow formats that don’t reward 3-point shooting.



Raja Bell (adductor) will not play on Wednesday, and this could be the opening Ty Corbin needs to move him out of the starting lineup. Bell has struggled with this injury in the past and owners may want to consider it a multi-game injury. Al Jefferson (foot) is annoying his owners with constant minor injuries, but with solid performance all year long the instant reaction is not to overact. The other reaction is to figure out if this is his body breaking down or if he is just a guy that attracts minor injuries.



I thought Spencer Hawes (Achilles) might have been held out on Monday so he didn’t have to deal with Dwight Howard, but if he misses Wednesday that theory turns to mud. He is playing 2-on-2 and 3-on-3, but has been day-to-day forever and his injury history says that’s not good. Nikola Vucevic might have also been held out on Monday for the same reasons, and both players should be watched to see who can step up.


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LAST NIGHT’S ACTION



Jerryd Bayless started at shooting guard and was pulled from the starting lineup at halftime once Dwane Casey realized Joe Johnson was having a field day on the shorter Bayless. This, of course, will happen anytime the Raptors play a larger shooting guard and Casey will either have to adjust nightly or go away from Bayless in the starting lineup. Either way, I like Bayless enough to have him stashed in two 12-team leagues prior to this development, and I’ve added him in two other 12-team leagues. Whether it’s at shooting guard or at point guard, Bayless will be a factor in fantasy leagues this season. Trade rumors surrounding Jose Calderon don’t hurt, either.



Leandro Barbosa (ankle) returned to action and played just 17 minutes, scoring four points on 2-of-8 shooting. He’ll probably return to his scoring ways with Andrea Bargnani (calf) out, but might get jumbled around a bit while the Raptors settle on a lineup. Linas Kleiza was also disappointing with seven points on 2-of-9 shooting (including a three) in 21 minutes. I’ve had questions about his ability to produce given the log-jam at the wings in Toronto.



Anderson Varejao scored a season-high 20 points with a career-high 20 rebounds last night, and while one may want to say it’s because there is nobody else there to contend with him – they’re not watching the games. Varejao is noticeably slimmer this season and he’s much more aggressive with the ball around the hoop. He’s actually an offensive contributor and that’s why he’s having a career season – not because Semih Erden and Tristan Thompson haven’t been ready to contribute.



Paul George had a nice night with a career-high 24 points on 8-of-11 shooting (including four treys), and I have no clue why he would be dropped – but if he was make sure he’s owned now.



Anthony Morrow scored a season-high 28 points with four rebounds and five treys, and with MarShon Brooks out indefinitely hopefully owners were already all over it. If not, stop what you’re doing and pick up Morrow in any 8- and 9-cat leagues. His ankle injury could be an issue going forward, but not enough of one to deter owners at all. Shawne Williams hit just 3-of-10 shots last night, and will be the next guy you want to look at if you missed out on Morrow. We’re not expecting a bunch, but Williams could be a nice add for those needing 3-pointers over the next few weeks.



Joe Johnson scored a season-high 30 points (13-of-18 FGs, three treys) and enjoyed the height advantage.



Amir Johnson played just 14 minutes with two points and one board, while Ed Davis double-doubled with 11 points and 11 rebounds, and Aaron Gray replaced Johnson with the starters in the second half. None of them are particularly good options right now, and Johnson can be benched or even dropped if you see a stronger free agent. Stash Ed Davis if you would like, but he needs to show me more before I go adding him aggressively.



Rudy Gay bounced back from the worst outing I’ve seen out of him in ages on Monday (one point), scoring 20 points with a season-high 13 rebounds, five assists, two steals, two blocks, and two 3-pointers in the Grizzlies’ overtime win against the Nuggets. Gay had a chase-down block that essentially saved the game, and any concerns that Rudy was capable of unraveling were dismissed last night. O.J. Mayo played after some concern about his ankle, scoring 18 points with three treys, and Marc Gasol was his normal capable self with 20 points, 13 boards, two steals, and three blocks.



Tyreke Evans hit 9-of-22 shots (including a three) against the hapless Warriors, scoring 22 points with 10 rebounds, nine assists, three steals, and a block. Evans has really turned it on lately, making highlight variety plays that wouldn’t have happened in last year’s injury-riddled campaign. The shot selection issues are still there, but I’m backing off some of my criticism after a week of mostly effective basketball out of him. The Kings still need to take the ball out of his hands more, though. Jason Thompson had 13 points and 11 boards, and prior to Chuck Hayes’ shoulder aggravation the Kings organization was pretty clear about returning Hayes to the starting lineup. Now, I’m not so sure. We’re probably looking at a timeshare, but with Thompson playing pretty well he gets a fighting chance to hold his value – but he probably won’t.



Carmelo Anthony (ankle) returned to action, scoring 25 points on 9-of-14 shooting with six assists. I have yet to watch the tape but I will be looking for signs of ball movement to see if the other Knickerbockers have a chance at normalcy this season. Amare Stoudemire tweaked his ankle warming up for the second half, but didn't show any signs of it being serious and we’ll be all over the updates. Iman Shumpert got the start at PG after some flip-flopping by Mike D’Antoni, and scored six points with four rebounds, six assists, and two steals in 35 minutes. I didn’t drop him in any 12-team leagues as he turned into ‘Slumpert’ and now I’m happy I held. Landry Fields scored 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting with four treys, five boards, three assists, five steals, and a block. He fits within the Knicks’ current scheme and should be locked and loaded into all lineups.



Ty Lawson (ankle) returned to action (12 points, three boards, four assists, five turnovers, 36 minutes), but was outplayed by Andre Miller who had 20 points and a fat stat line. We’ll cut Lawson some slack but clearly Miller isn’t done producing and is thriving in George Karl’s system. Arron Afflalo isn’t producing this season, and it’s safe to say now that Andre Miller is cutting into his workload. Afflalo scored just eight points with three assists and no 3-pointers in 36 minutes, and with plenty of time to get into shape and the like it’s pretty clear what’s going on here.



I’m not worried about Brandon Knight’s slump, as the Pistons would be fairly crazy if they took him off the floor barring a massive face-plant. I don’t think we’re there yet. Bench him but don’t drop him. I’m not buying the Austin Daye hype until Ben Gordon’s shoulder injury takes a stronger turn for the worse. I know the upside is there but the minutes won’t be if the Pistons have a full house.





MISCELLANEOUS



Stephen Jackson in Milwaukee was a joke move by the Bucks brass in my opinion, so his current woes are not surprising. He fell to me in the ninth or tenth round in an 8-cat league and I even started him this week, but he’ll be benched (not dropped) until he gets back on the same page with Scott Skiles. If he lands with the Nets, he could step into a primary scoring role and be a nice asset.



Alvin Gentry is reportedly trying to stick by Channing Frye, probably because he has to. Markieff Morris has proven better in spurts and Hakim Warrick is a mess. I’ve found it easier to look at Frye as a weird roster stash for the chance he stops sucking. If he ever gets it going he’ll be a nice value.

 

[HacheMan]

Blocked: The Serge Ibaka Story

We’re knee deep into the NBA season and before you know it we’ll be talking about the trade deadline in wonder about where it all went. There are teams that are still tweaking rotations like it’s training camp, and there are other teams that are legitimately packing their seasons in to play the young guys. Somewhere, Billy Hunter and David Stern are laughing at us all.



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BLOCKED: THE SERGE IBAKA STORY




Serge Ibaka played 40 minutes and scored four points last night, but went off with a season-high 10 blocks and 11 rebounds last night. Check my prior work to get some back-story about the so-called defensive lapses that Scott Brooks and the local media have used as rationale for why his playing time has been stolen by ancient Nazr Mohammed, mediocre Kendrick Perkins, and a solid but fully-developed Nick Collison. You’ll hear more about it today, with reports about his changed defensive approach framing the story of why a third-year player is not being developed when he has the potential to be a game-changer in the playoffs. It's bunk. Meanwhile, I’ll keep on evaluating Ibaka’s fantasy value by Brooks’ willingness to play him, and not by some misguided explanation about a guy I’ve graded out as average-to-elite on 95 percent of his defensive possessions.



And on a separate note, any time Perkins gets a premeditated entry pass in the post, I immediately return my trust rating in Brooks’ coaching ability back to Rambis.



TOO HOT TO HANDLE, TOO COLD TO HOLD



LeBron James scored a season-high 40 points with four triples and a full stat line, but the Heat lost to the Bucks last night. Brandon Jennings traded blows with him and hit seven triples of his own, scoring 31 points on 9-of-25 shooting with four rebounds, eight assists, and four steals. I’m all but sure Jennings’ field goal percentage will revert back to career form, but the rest of the numbers we’ve been seeing have a strong chance of holding. That’s a recipe to sell-high in leagues where field goal percentage can hurt you, but by all means be terribly picky. I think he’s good enough and needed enough to avoid Scott Skiles’ machinations, after two solid weeks of staying Skiles-free with Beno Udrih around.



In other Bucks news, Ersan Ilyasova wants out of the NBA but he can’t stop producing low-end value, and had another nine points, 14 boards, and two blocks. Face it, you’re never, ever going to feel comfortable using him, but after three weeks of this productivity owners with a hole in their roster have no excuse for passing him up. Drew Gooden was awesome again with a 17-9-5 line, and is already on the shortlist for waiver wire pickups of the year. As for Stephen Jackson, he’s still in the doghouse and played just nine minutes. Bench and hold, unfortunately. Carlos Delfino was active in the 19 minutes Skiles granted him, scoring 11 points on 3-of-6 shooting (3-of-5 from deep) with a block and a steal. There’s potential there, but I have zero trust in the situation after the past two weeks of Delfino being jerked around.



NICK NOLTE APPROVED



Roddy Beaubois hit just 3-of-13 shots for nine points, four rebounds, and four assists last night, and we need to see better play out of him this week for any role change to take place when Jason Kidd (calf) returns. As of tonight, my guess is that Kidd’s minutes are not threatened. That said, owners need to hold Buckets until Kidd gets back for the right to find out. Ian Mahinmi got a start with Brendan Haywood (back) out, but scored just six points with nine boards and needs to do more in these opportunities to convince owners to make the add. I like him in the position battle, that’s only half the battle for Mahinmi. Dirk Nowitzki is still slumming it up, this time without a crazy woman involved, and wrapped up last night with a 2-of-15 shooting mark, eight points, and eight rebounds. Yes, he’s still a buy low target and is a better target with each passing dud. Delonte West backed up his season-high 25 points with just five points in 16 minutes last night, which illustrates the trouble with the guard slots in Dallas. One or two of them will be left out on most nights. Vince Carter struggled with eight points on 3-of-10 shooting and an otherwise respectable stat line, and still might be the most productive of the three remaining guards until Kidd gets back. And if you had Rick Carlisle punting a basketball into the stands like a poor man’s Nick Nolte, you are the amazing Kreskin.



ONE DOWN, ONE TO GO



Chris Paul scored a season-high 34 points with a fat stat line and Blake Griffin followed up his horrifying dunk on Kendrick Perkins with another nice night, scoring 31 points with 14 boards and three blocks. In 8- and 9-cat leagues Griffin has been a punter’s play, as his free throw shooting and blocks have dragged his overall value down. That may be changing, though, as he’s currently averaging 0.9 steals and 1.0 blocks per game and that makes him much more versatile in fantasy leagues. Punting more than one category sets owners up for trouble in my opinion, and this trend makes Griffin a much more manageable asset.



BULLS ON PARADE



Joakim Noah went 0-for-3 from the field and finished with two points, seven boards, and no blocks in 27 minutes, while Taj Gibson played 21 minutes and was productive. I’ve been blurbing at you guys to sell-high and hopefully you thought about it. In other Bulls news, C.J. Watson’s 20-4-4 line was a total fluke, but if you’re in a deep, deep league he has a shot at some value while Luol Deng (wrist) and Richard Hamilton (groin) are out.



ROTATING PISTONS



Austin Daye played 11 minutes last night as the Pistons stayed big with Jason Maxiell at power forward instead of Ben Wallace (five minutes), and Jonas Jerebko played 31 minutes on his way to 14 points on 5-of-10 shooting (including a three). Jerebko has provided late-round value recently on the strength of 95% free throw shooting, 52.5% field goal shooting, and otherwise versatile, but unspectacular stat lines. The lack of counting stats is a bummer and so is playing off the bench, but give him a look if you need to plug a hole in your lineup. As for Daye, I wasn’t on that train and probably won’t be until the Pistons’ rotation thins out.



TOUGH PILLS



Danny Granger is back to being productive and had a nice little altercation with Kevin Love (21 points, 17 boards, no threes, one block), and the two might still be talking trash this morning. Granger hit 9-of-19 shots (including five treys) for a season-high 36 points with seven boards and the buy-low window is shut.



FOR UPDATED PROJECTIONS, DAILY PICKUP ADVICE, EXCLUSIVE CHATS, AND MORE CLICK HERE.


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ROCKET SCIENCE



Kevin Martin hit 10-of-21 shots (including six threes) for 29 points and it’s safe to project that his foot is healthy for fantasy purposes after two solid nights. Kyle Lowry hit just 5-of-12 shots for 15 points, but had seven assists, two steals, and a three and this could be the best buy-low moment he has all year. As far as I know, he has court on Thursday and could easily have been stressing out. Luis Scola scored four points with three rebounds in 25 minutes, and I don’t think he’s worth the risk on a buy low offer in 8- and 9-cat leagues. Yes, he can only go up, but can he stay above the Mason/Dixon line in 12-team formats? In 8-cat leagues it’s possible, but it’s possible the failed trade and the coaching change (among other possibilities) have sapped his confidence. The Chandler Parsons project has disappeared but has the type of fantasy friendly game that props his value up. He scored just three points with one rebound and two assists in 16 minutes, while Courtney Lee (32 minutes, 15 points, 7-of-12 FGs) soaked up his minutes and not Chase Budinger (nine minutes, zero points). This kills any momentum for Budinger with owners and makes Parsons droppable, but if you find he had a minor injury it might put this outing into proper perspective and give owners looking long-term a reason to hold. Either way, I’m not going to kill anyone for dropping Parsons with his upside seemingly held-in-check.



DON’T LET THE SUN GO DOWN ON ME



Steve Nash (thigh) returned from a one-game absence and put up 30 and 10 and set the franchise career assists record, but the real fantasy story was Channing Frye, who scored 16 points on 6-of-9 shooting with seven boards, a steal, and two blocks. I called him a reverse psychology stash yesterday in the event he stopped sucking, and in this lockout inspired season it wouldn’t be shocking if it took a guy like Frye two months to get his flow back. For what it’s worth, I held him in my 12-team big money league in which we start 12 guys with four reserves. Jared Dudley started again and scored 15 points with a reasonably full stat line. I recently added him with a big FAAB play in that same league and feel like I’ve got a reasonable starter. Grant Hill left Wednesday’s game with a knee injury, which if serious could open up minutes and opportunities for Dudley and Frye, as well as Markieff Morris (five points, one three, one block, just 10 minutes) and Josh Childress (eight points, 4-of-4 FGs, four boards, 21 minutes).



NO AGRAVIOS



Forgetting that DaJuan Summers started at shooting guard and played 15 forgettable minutes, even if he hit 2-of-5 shots (including a three) for five points, let’s get to the good stuff. Greivis Vasquez has always had the talent to step in and produce right away for the Hornets, who lack talent, but he needed to learn the system and we may find out one day that Monty Williams played the situation too tightly. Either way, Vasquez’s 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting with three treys and 12 assists in a career night were a big-time explosion – big enough to possibly force Monty’s hand. Marco Belinelli has no business playing big minutes in the NBA, and Vasquez is essentially a shooting guard masquerading as a point. Yes, there are risks – Monty is a ‘yanker,’ as in he yanks guys around, and Vasquez hasn’t been reliable to date. Everything else is in place, though, so if you have a guy that you can afford to cut now is the time to take a flier.



CASEY AT THE BAT



Ed Davis started over Amir Johnson last night and scored 10 points with 12 boards and two blocks, and appears to be the favored fantasy play for now. Just don’t expect consistency from Dwane Casey until Casey proves he can be consistent. For now he’s tinkering. Jerryd Bayless was moved out of the starting lineup (no real surprise) and scored 14 points with two threes and not much else. I had him stashed in two 12-team leagues and added him in three more since he got healthy enough to play. I’m not dropping him and might not all year if all goes as planned.



JUST A PEK



I took a chance on Nikola Pekovic in a 12-team league two days ago, because he is noticeably quicker and that is keeping him from fouling out. Ricky Rubio has also done a good job of setting him up in the pick-and-roll, and even though Darko Milicic (illness) returned I can’t see him staying healthy and/or consistently effective. Pekovic had 13 points and 12 boards last night and he might end up being the most consistent near-double double guy in the league when it’s all said and done.



FOR WHOM THE BELL TOLLS



Josh Howard was ineffective last night with four points and three rebounds in 22 minutes, while C.J. Miles (16 points, three boards, two threes, 22 minutes) and Gordon Hayward (12 points, 5-of-11 FGs, three rebounds, three assists, one steal, and one block) were productive. One of the three will be left in the cold each night, and all of them are worth a look in fantasy leagues. I’d rank them Hayward, Howard, and Miles as long as Howard is healthy, and if Raja Bell (adductor) returns to the starting lineup then I don’t like Hayward as much. Hayward has some shakes to his game, but not enough to get his own shot when defenses sag off of Bell knowing they can chase him off the 3-point line.



REDICKULOUS



J.J. Redick should be owned in all 8- and 9-cat, 12-team leagues after providing late-round value all year, because Jason Richardson’s knee and athleticism have me wondering if he’s falling off a cliff. Once again, excellent signing Otis. Redick scored a season-high 21 points on 5-of-7 shooting (including three treys) and won’t be available for long.



NEAL BEFORE POP



I’m not buying Gary Neal’s 15-point outing and if you want an update on Kahwi Leonard he’s still on that deep-roster, 12-team big money squad. Leonard (eight minutes) will be the first to go during our weekly FAAB, however, after failing to break Gregg Popovich’s tendency to play matchups and mess with rookies. I don’t mind stashing him due to his overall value proposition within Pop’s scheme (and the fantasy realm), but it’s impossible to ignore that Manu Ginobili (hand) will be back soon and things are going to get crowded. Leonard hasn’t been helped by the fact that Richard Jefferson’s veteran presence has been more necessary with Ginobili out, and that Jefferson has answered the call by hitting his jumper and playing focused, albeit flawed defense. Leonard’s strengths are obvious, but his flaws are accentuated playing somewhat out of position at shooting guard. Elsewhere along the Riverwalk, Tim Duncan (25 points, seven rebounds) has a very good chance of being rested on Thursday, so owners have been warned.



THE BOBKITTENS



The Bobcats are awful and lost by 44 points to the Blazers last night, and this symbolic loss is just one more reminder to the organization that it’s time to play the young guys. Kemba Walker hit just 1-of-11 shots for four points and three assists, and owners would have to be crazy to drop or move him, regardless of what is happening with D.J. Augustin. Kemba will be on the court this year. Tyrus Thomas had a typical Tyrus line with seven points, five boards, two steals, and two blocks, and is young enough to qualify for the youth movement. Bismack Biyombo is also a Bobkitten, and I have him stashed in a few places.


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RUN RAYMOND RUN



It might seem like a bad night to evaluate the Blazers after they helped Gerald Wallace (23 points, five boards, three steals, one block) exact revenge upon his old Bobcats squad to the tune of a 44-point dismantling, but two key guys that have been shooting awfully bad lately deserve a spotlight nonetheless. Less relevant to last night’s result is Wesley Matthews, who hit 3-of-6 shots and is shooting a career-low 41 percent on the year. Jamal Crawford’s arrival isn’t doing him any favors, but it’s a bit of a stretch to put Matthews’ troubles entirely on that. He’s simply not making shots, and those things tend to work themselves out as long as the player in question hasn’t fallen off a cliff. I don't think Matthews is that guy. If Nicolas Batum’s knee injury (day-to-day, trying to play Saturday) is more serious than he or the team is letting on, then Matthews will have even more opportunity to work back toward his 45.5 percent career mark. Sitting at mid-round value in 8- and 9-cat formats on the year, and late round value in the last two weeks, there is room to buy low here.



Then there’s the case of Raymond Felton, who got fat over the summer and while slimmed down since those photos were snapped, he hasn’t been running the ball like Nate McMillan wants. Felton’s answer as to why he won’t run? “I don’t know,” he said when asked about it before last night’s game. Wouldn’t you know he ran the ball last night, and with Jamal Crawford his only real competition at point guard he has all the time in the world to get his act together, at least until Nolan Smith becomes an option (read: not anytime soon). Felton has late round value on the year in 8- and 9-cat formats, and that has improved a bit over the last two weeks, and his 37.2 percent mark from the field is also bound to move toward his 41.1 percent career mark. As for buying low, we’re talking about a starting, pedigreed point guard with little to no competition for minutes with the law of large numbers on his side. That he could play worse is certainly a possibility, but what are we talking about here – a 70 percent chance he improves? 80 percent? Surely Felton gets a few percentage points for being in a contract year, unless of course his current contract was incentivized with cupcakes.



Nate McMillan praised him for running the ball last night and here’s a shocking theory – the fat out-of-shape guy is getting into shape two months late and didn’t want to push tempo early in the year because he couldn’t. Assuming Felton continues to push the ball, which he is being asked to do, the touches and opportunities will increase. With extra opportunities guys usually do one of two things – play their way out of a role or get a better feel for their own game through the added success they have. Felton is good enough to be the latter. He is the definition of a buy low guy.



ODDS AND ENDS



Kenyon Martin is going to decide this weekend where he will sign, and owners might as well just wait to hear where that will be outside of desperate, deep-league scenarios. Shawne Williams started at small forward with half of New Jersey injured, and despite his own leg issues he could be worth a look for his 3-point shooting. Williams had 11 points, five boards, and three treys last night. Ishmael Smith was called up by the Magic and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Stan Van Gundy give him a shot. He knows what he has in Chris Duhon and will be looking to catch lightning in a bottle with Jameer Nelson scuffling. I’m not buying Jason Smith’s 16 points, four boards, and three blocks until he does it again. You couldn’t pay me to take on Rashard Lewis after his 20-point, eight-rebound line. He is old, breaking down, and not that good anymore. Trevor Booker (eight points, nine boards, two blocks) is still the add in Washington.



FOUR QUARTERS OF INJURY UPDATES



1^ST QUARTER: Spencer Hawes (Achilles) and Nikola Vucevic (quad/knee) still aren’t playing despite being day-to-day forever. I don’t buy what Doug Collins is selling about their health to date, as they would have been out there if they were right. Luol Deng (thigh) did not play last night and Richard Hamilton (groin) says he’ll stay out until he’s 100 percent. Reports have had them ready to play for a while now, but I’m glad I didn’t buy them. The Chicago Sun-Tribune has missed a few times already, and has Deng “expected to start Thursday.” We’ll see. Ditto Jason Richardson (knee) whenever his status gets updated. The guy hardly looks like he can run, let alone jump, but he was “expected” to play last night and didn’t. Rajon Rondo (wrist) didn’t play and once again I’m not shocked. His new target is Friday and short of a guarantee owners are gambling if they’re counting on him.



2^ND QUARTER: Raja Bell (adductor) missed last night and will miss Thursday. He missed four games on two separate occasions with the same injury last year. Don’t be surprised if the Jazz play it safe and use this time to work with Gordon Hayward, Josh Howard, and C.J. Miles. Earl Watson left last night’s game with a severe left ankle sprain (X-rays negative, doubtful for Thursday), so it’s time to hold or add Devin Harris (sore left hamstring, expected to play Thursday) no matter how bad he has been playing. If I had to guess, he’ll have about a week or so to get his act together at a minimum and Utah needs him to enhance his trade value. Not having Earl look over his shoulder could help. Al Jefferson (foot) continued to make minor injuries look minor with 27 points and 12 boards last night, so the status quo remains in effect in Utah’s frontcourt. Marcus Thornton (thigh) was a full participant in practice yesterday and might play Thursday. Jimmer is not being helped by the coaches, who haven’t figured out a pick-and-roll game for him, but the end-result is that he failed his interview, nonetheless.



3^RD QUARTER: Baron Davis (back) isn’t close to returning, which is another shocker. There was a reason Cavs reporters had him out for half of the year. Zach Randolph’s MRI (knee) came back and there is no change in his rehab status. My advice is to ignore anything you’ve heard so far and to put stock in the next three weeks’ worth of reports. Anthony Morrow (ankle) missed last night’s game but I’m all over adding him. Gerald Henderson went from back injury to hamstring injury, and we’re starting to see a lack of information out of anybody not named Rick Bonnell in Charlotte. Reggie Williams went 0-for-7, and could be in line for big minutes and Paul Silas is fired up about him. Williams is a guy that owners can slowplay over the next 24 hours while they look at other waiver wire prospects – at least until news hits that he will start or take on a big role if/when Henderson is announced as day-to-day.



4^TH QUARTER: Shawn Marion hyper-extended his right knee but stayed in the game last night, and if he’s not healthy then Lamar Odom gets his zillionth chance to get his head in the game. Odom was out with an illness last night, and my official last straw came on Monday night. Yours probably came earlier. He needs to prove himself to me from the waiver wire if Marion’s knee isn’t an issue. Linas Kleiza (knee) didn’t play, highlighting yet another reason I wasn’t high on him. Caron Butler was a late-scratch with a sore back, but as long as it’s not his knee I’m probably okay with it. He has proven me wrong with his play so far this year, but it’s still early. That knee has gotta hold up. Rodney Stuckey added ‘ankle’ to his banged-up body descriptors, but stayed in the game and finished with seven points. Watch for the update and I’m still adding him if he hits the wire, at least until Ben Gordon’s shoulder doesn’t sound like it’s ready to fall off.

 

[HacheMan]

Introducing Field Goal Impact

By John Cregan
Special to ESPN.com

During last week's discussion of categorical scarcity, I mentioned that in a later column, we'd be looking a little more deeply at the true impact of a player's cumulative effect on a fantasy team's performance from the field. That is, how much a player is really impacting your team's field goal percentage.


Well, I knew I couldn't just throw out a proposition as tantalizing as that and not follow through. Unlike Paul George, I am not a roto tease.


Specifically, I want to approach it from the perspective that it isn't merely enough just to look at who has the best and worst field goal percentages (FG%) when gauging which players are helping and hurting you the most, because two other factors are at play: 3-pointers converted and field goal attempts (FGA).


Adding 3-pointers and FGA to the conversation helps factor in two key components: efficiency and volume. It's not enough just to list who has the highest and lowest FG% and leave it at that, because it penalizes players that give you 3s and distorts the conception of which players are actually making the largest impact on your team's field goal percentage.


I figured there was some next-level stat I hadn't heard of that guys like Daryl Morey carry an app for on their iPad (and I don't even have an iPad). There are stats I use all the time that can point us in the right direction, but nothing I'd ever heard of to specifically balance a player's shooting efficiency with volume of shot attempts.


One stat I love in this general area is true shooting percentage (TS%), which delineates how often a player generates points per attempt, be it from the field or the free throw line. (It's the reason why I've always been such an admirer of Chauncey Billups, the TS% king).


But I was searching for a stat that first of all removed the free throws from the TS% equation, leaving us with just 2-point and 3-point field goal attempts, then factoring in that with a player's comparative shot volume.


There's a stat called points per shot (PPS) that measures how many points a player generates per field goal attempt (Dwight Howard leads the NBA at 1.53 PPS, with LeBron right behind at 1.52). But that wasn't quite it, since it leaves out volume.


So I asked the marvelous ESPN Stats & Info department, who have been invaluable this season in helping me figure things out that normally would have required me to quit my day job(s) to grasp. And they, very correctly, pointed me towards effective field goal percentage -- also known as adjusted field goal percentage -- or eFG% if you're nasty.


Effective field goal percentage takes points per attempt, and turns it into a percentage, adding 3s into the equation. The formula looks like this:


(FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA


Stats & Info was kind enough to give me a list of the current NBA leaders in eFG% that are also averaging more than 10 field goal attempts per game. So this list, by removing the low-volume shooters, gives us a rough idea of what I'm talking about (hint: the league average eFG% is 48.1 percent, and anything above 52.0 percent is pretty darn good).




<table><thead><tr><th></th><th></th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Ray Allen </td><td> 64.0% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Mo Williams </td><td> 58.5% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Steve Nash</td><td> 58.0% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Al Harrington </td><td> 57.5% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> LeBron James </td><td> 56.8% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Marcin Gortat</td><td> 56.1% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Kevin Durant </td><td> 55.7% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Chris Paul </td><td> 55.7% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Kyrie Irving </td><td> 55.4% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Dwight Howard </td><td> 55.3% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Ryan Anderson </td><td> 55.0% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Andrew Bynum</td><td> 54.8% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Stephen Curry</td><td> 53.8% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Jeff Teague</td><td> 53.7% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Chris Bosh </td><td> 53.6% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Nene </td><td> 53.5% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Paul Millsap </td><td> 53.1% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Anthony Morrow</td><td> 52.9% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Rajon Rondo</td><td> 52.8% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> David Lee </td><td> 52.6% </td></tr></tbody></table>



This list is a great Cliffs Notes version of players to target when looking to boost your team's field goal percentage. It's useful because it shows a true representation of which players are giving you an extra, hidden boost due to their 3-point prowess. Which, by the way, makes Kyrie Irving our front-runner for eFG% Rookie of the Year.


Now, I'll add on to that myself by giving you some of the NBA's worst eFG% offenders that average more than 10 FGA per game (hint: anything below 45.0% is pretty darn bad).




<table><thead><tr><th></th><th></th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> John Wall </td><td> 39.8% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> DeMar DeRozan </td><td> 40.6% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Jamal Crawford </td><td> 41.8% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Kemba Walker </td><td> 41.9% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Stephen Jackson </td><td> 42.8% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Monta Ellis </td><td> 43.4% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Tyreke Evans </td><td> 43.6% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Amare Stoudemire </td><td> 43.8% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Danny Granger </td><td> 43.8% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Carmelo Anthony </td><td> 43.9% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Dwyane Wade </td><td> 44.4% </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Tony Parker </td><td> 44.9% </td></tr></tbody></table>



Conversely, the most damning names on this list are the players not known for 3-point attempts, which basically makes it a one-name list. Congrats, Amare.


But I was going for exactitude. If this elusive stat wasn't available readily on ESPN.com, or Basketball-Reference.com, I was going to have to go right to The Source.


Now, I've never approached John Hollinger about anything in my life, because my fear of people I admire is legendary. (This is due to a brief encounter I had with Lou Reed when I was an intern at Late Show with David Letterman that still supplies me with 2-3 nightmares per year.)


Anyway, this seemed pretty important -- I never want to let any of you down -- so I went right up the ESPN food chain, marshaled my courage, and e-mailed The Source. Lo and behold, I found out two things: 1. John Hollinger is a perfectly nice and approachable person; and 2. The stat I was looking for did not exist.


This was exciting to me; a stat so obscure that only I was apparently interested in it? I threw out a few examples of stats I thought could be applicable to this nonexistent stat (usage rate, eFG%, FGA per game), and Hollinger, just as I hoped he would, whipped out this formula:


(FG%-league average) * (FGA/gm)/(League average FGA/gm)


This was wonderful, but I added one small touch, including the 3-point factor by changing the FG% part to eFG%, thereby colliding Stats & Info's chocolate with Hollinger's peanut butter. The resulting formula:


(eFG%-league average) * (FGA/gm)/(League average FGA/gm)


For right now, we'll call it field goal impact (FG%i). I ran all the top effective field goal players through the formula, and came up with this ranking:


Top 20 in field goal impact, 2011-12 season

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th> eFG% </th><th> FG%i </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> LeBron James</td><td> 56.8% </td><td> 22.3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Ray Allen</td><td> 64.0% </td><td> 21.4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Kevin Durant</td><td> 55.7% </td><td> 18.8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Mo Williams</td><td> 58.5% </td><td> 15.3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Al Harrington</td><td> 57.5% </td><td> 14.7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Steve Nash</td><td> 58.0% </td><td> 14.1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Chris Paul</td><td> 55.7% </td><td> 13.8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Kyrie Irving</td><td> 55.4% </td><td> 13.0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Marcin Gortat</td><td> 56.1% </td><td> 12.7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Dwight Howard</td><td> 55.3% </td><td> 12.6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Ryan Anderson</td><td> 55.0% </td><td> 11.6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Chris Bosh</td><td> 53.6% </td><td> 11.1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Andrew Bynum</td><td> 54.8% </td><td> 10.8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Stephen Curry</td><td> 53.8% </td><td> 10.1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Paul Millsap</td><td> 53.1% </td><td> 8.9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> David Lee</td><td> 52.6% </td><td> 8.9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Jeff Teague</td><td> 53.7% </td><td> 7.8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Nene</td><td> 53.5% </td><td> 7.3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Anthony Morrow</td><td> 52.9% </td><td> 7.1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Rajon Rondo</td><td> 52.8% </td><td> 7.0 </td></tr></tbody></table>



To me, this feels about right, because it slightly reshuffles the eFG% rankings in favor of the players with the highest volume of field goal attempts. It puts LeBron ahead of Ray Allen, which is fair, since he attempts twice as many shots (20.5 FGA versus 10.0 FGA). It also shoves Marcin Gortat down a few pegs, since Gortat stays within 12 feet of the basket (and we love him for it).


Just remember that this stat isn't a percentage, it's a score. The average NBA player should have a FG%i of zero. If zero is the mean, it dictates that the players who are harming your field goal percentage will have a negative score.


Lowest field goal impact, 2011-12 season

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th> eFG% </th><th> FG%i </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> John Wall </td><td> 39.8% </td><td> -15.5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> DeMar DeRozan </td><td> 40.6% </td><td> -14.0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Amare Stoudemire</td><td> 43.8% </td><td> -11.3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Danny Granger</td><td> 43.8% </td><td> -10.8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Jamal Crawford </td><td> 41.8% </td><td> -10.4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Stephen Jackson </td><td> 42.8% </td><td> -10.2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Kemba Walker </td><td> 41.9% </td><td> -10.1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Tyreke Evans</td><td> 43.6% </td><td> -9.4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Carmelo Anthony</td><td> 43.9% </td><td> -8.5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Dwyane Wade</td><td> 44.4% </td><td> -8.4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Monta Ellis</td><td> 43.4% </td><td> -7.4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Tony Parker</td><td> 44.9% </td><td> -6.4 </td></tr></tbody></table>



As someone who manages to masochistically watch every Wizards game, it wasn't a shocker to see Wall is No. 1 with a bullet. What FG%i did was bump up high-volume shooters like Amare and Granger ahead of players like Kemba Walker and Monta Ellis. See how Amare surges ahead of Carmelo due to his attempting five extra shots per night? The stat, in an unrefined way, appears to work.


Here's the FG%i for five other high-volume shooters with more middle-of-the-road eFG%:




<table><thead><tr><th></th><th> eFG% </th><th> FG%i </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Kobe Bryant </td><td> 48.3% </td><td> 0.6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> LaMarcus Aldridge </td><td> 50.1% </td><td> 4.9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Andrea Bargnani </td><td> 51.5% </td><td> 8.0 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Derrick Rose </td><td> 49.7% </td><td> 3.8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Rudy Gay </td><td> 47.4% </td><td> -1.5 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Personally, I'm digging this because it's showing Bargnani's hidden value (something I've been pushing for a long time). It would put Bargnani right below David Lee in the NBA hierarchy, which again feels about right. It shows that Kobe will have only a small effect on your team's field goal percentage (unless the rest of your team has a particularly high or low FG%), and you can enjoy his high-volume stats with a guilt-free conscience.


Again, this is a very unrefined stat. There are people smarter than I who could really hone this down. But at the least, this would have made for a fine ninth-grade science project. I do think it points to a small hole in our statistical galaxy, one that's especially important when examining stats from a fantasy perspective.

 

[HacheMan]

Shards in Charlotte

The Bobcats were already one of the worst teams in the league. Then they lost Corey Maggette (hamstring) and D.J. Augustin (toe) to injury. On Thursday, things got even worse when they announced Gerald Henderson would be out 2-4 weeks with a hamstring pull of his own.

Early signs point toward this being a long-term injury. The 3-20 Bobcats certainly won’t rush him, the All-Star break looms in three weeks and serious hamstring strains are always tricky. Don’t be surprised if Henderson misses the full month. Considering Henderson was averaging just 0.3 3-pointers, 0.9 steals, 0.4 blocks and 1.8 assists, most owners will be forced to move on.

So what we have left is a team blatantly devoid of talent and scorers. That’s also known as an opportunity for fantasy owners.

When Henderson missed two games in January with a back injury, Matt Carroll started at shooting guard. Carroll averaged 15.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.0 steals and 0.5 3-pointers in those spot-starts. That likely earned him the starting gig going forward, at least until Augustin gets healthy or Reggie Williams gets up to speed.

Remember that Williams is the guy that has averaged 1.3 3-pointers made per game in his career on 40.1 percent shooting from beyond the arc. He’s also the guy that coach Paul Silas said will eventually be “unbelievable” for the Bobcats. Both Carroll and Williams need to be on the deep-league radar, with Carroll serving as the short-term add.

Editor’s Note: For exclusive columns, chats, pickup advice, weekly rankings and much more, check out the Season Pass!

NEWS OF THE DAY #2
Coach Rick Carlisle predictably squashed any talk that Roddy Beaubois would stick as the starter once Jason Kidd (calf) returns.

Yes, the Mavs are 6-1 without Kidd and 8-8 with him. But Kidd is the future Hall of Famer coming off a championship and Beaubois is still the inconsistent future. Roddy B may cut into Kidd’s minutes more and more as the year goes on, but a full-blown changing of the guard isn’t happening.

NEWS OF THE DAY #3
Jarrett Jack was a surprise late scratch Thursday night due to maintenance for a sore knee. That gave intriguing second-year combo guard Greivis Vasquez the start at point guard.

Predictably, Vasquez posted 16 points, five assists, three rebounds and two steals. That comes on the heels of a 20-point, 12-assists outburst off the bench on Wednesday night. Simply put, Vasquez can play.

And perhaps more importantly, Vasquez goes 6’6/211, meaning he’s very capable of playing the shooting guard spot while Eric Gordon (knee) is out. Marco Belinelli and NEWS OF THE DAY #4
Kenyon Martin has received clearance to leave his Chinese team and rejoin the NBA immediately as an unrestricted free agent. Yawn. Martin is 34 and averaged just 8.6 points, 6.2 rebounds and 0.7 blocks for the Nuggets a year ago. He was also getting just 14 points per game in the Chinese Basketball Association, a league where J.R. Smith has gone off for 60.

The prime suitors for Martin right now are the Clippers, Hawks and Heat. He’s not someone standard-size owners need to worry themselves with. Especially after it was revealed late Thursday night that China is fighting Martin’s release.

THURSDAY NIGHT GAME THOUGHTS: EARLY GAMES
The Grizzlies are finding out why Marreese Speights found the doghouse in Philly. He doesn’t play hard, takes bad shots and has perhaps the worst basketball IQ in the league. We can move along. … The Hawks were down by 24 after three quarters. Don’t read into the limited minutes for Jeff Teague and Josh Smith. … Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire look healthy. They should be fine to play in all three games of the Knicks’ back-to-back-to-back. … Iman Shumpert continues to start at point guard and Baron Davis (back) is at least a week away, if not more. Shumpert has played at least 35 minutes in two straight. … Gary Neal (seven points, 29 minutes) started ahead of Kahwi Leonard (two points, 11 minutes). … Tim Duncan played 22 minutes despite rumors of a rest night.

THURSDAY NIGHT GAME THOUGHTS: LATE GAMES
Marcus Thornton (thigh) returned with 20 points in 41 minutes. Jimmer Fredette played zero minutes. … DeMarcus Cousins appeared to get benched, as he played just 14 minutes. Stay tuned here. … Earl Watson is out indefinitely with a severe ankle sprain. It looked like a big chance for Devin Harris until he was a late scratch with a hamstring issue. Enter Jamaal Tinsley, who impressively went for nine points and 13 assists in 34 minutes. A timeshare with Harris likely coming here. … Gordon Hayward has reached double-figures in four straight games as he continues to hold off C.J. Miles. … Blake Griffin has 13 blocks in his last five games. Hmmmm. … Caron Butler (back) returned with 11 points in 25 minutes.

INJURY QUICK SLANTS: GUARDS
Jason Richardson (knee) did not practice Thursday and is questionable for Friday. Either way, J.J. Redick’s fantasy-friendly game is coming on in a big way. … Steve Nash (thigh) will play Friday even though he’s at 70 percent. … George Hill (ankle) expects to miss no more than three weeks. … Anthony Parker (back) is out again Friday. Mychel Thompson will start, but INJURY FAST BREAK: FORWARDS AND CENTERS
Luol Deng (wrist) remains sidelined. He hasn’t had a setback, however, making Saturday a possibility. … Andrea Bargnani (calf) remains out indefinitely with no timetable for a return. … Spencer Hawes (Achilles) still doesn’t feel right when he gets on his toes. No timetable here, either. … Darko Milicic (knee) missed practice Thursday. Nikola Pekovic is a sneaky add, just know that he doesn’t block much and is a turnover machine. … Lamar Odom (illness) and Brendan Haywood (back) are both expected back Friday. … DEPTH CHART QUICK SLANTS
… Amir Johnson is having some personal issues, partially causing a drop in play. Ed Davis and Aaron Gray appear locked in up front for now. … ALL-STARS
The NBA announced the All-Star starters for the Feb. 26 All-Star Game in Orlando. I also announced my fantasy All-Star starters for a game being played in my head nightly:

REAL EAST ALL-STARS
PG Derrick Rose
SG Dwyane Wade
SF LeBron James
PF Carmelo Anthony
C Dwight Howard

FANTASY EAST ALL-STARS
PG Derrick Rose (Assists at career-high 8.0 per game)
SG Joe Johnson (3-point shot is back. Making 2.0 per game on 38.3 percent)
SF LeBron James (Shooting 55.3 percent from field. Career mark is 48.1 percent)
PF Ryan Anderson (Shooting “just” 43.2 percent from 3-point range. It’s sustainable)
C Greg Monroe (I play Roto style, so Dwight Howard is not an option)

REAL WEST ALL-STARS
PG Chris Paul
SG Kobe Bryant
SF Kevin Durant
PF Blake Griffin
C Andrew Bynum

FANTASY WEST ALL-STARS
PG Kyle Lowry (Chris Paul has missed 25 percent of his team’s games)
SG Kobe Bryant (Somehow reversing career arc at age 33)
SF Kevin Durant (Only one averaging at least 1.0 blocks, 1.0 steals and 1.0 3-pointers)
PF Kevin Love (Raised scoring from 20.2 last year to 25.3 this year)
C Marc Gasol (Dwight, JaVale, Tyrus Thomas, Josh Smith only others at 2.0 blocks, 1.0 steals)