Recap; 1-1
Record: 14-16
Split on Sunday (all fades went 4-3, so I missed out on picking up a unit.)
Off a good week, lowered the deficit by 5 games. The goal is to pick up two games plus 1.6 in juice this week.
Four to choose from today.
WF1 (10-22; Hm 2-10, Rd 8-12) says take Atl and GS.
WF2 (6-8; Hm 3-5, Rd 3-3) says take Mem and LAC
For new players looking to learn different ways to 'cap, here's an example of how to dig deeper in stats to try and find something worth playing.
Atl is a play in WF1. Record for that play, all teams, is 10-22. Looks good. But . . .
Dig deeper.
Atl is on the Rd, the play is 8-12 on the Rd, all teams. Still looks good. But . . .
Dig deeper.
What is Atlanta's record as the Fade team in this spot? 1-1. No help there. But . . .
Dig deeper.
What is Mia's record when they are the team to play ON in a fade in this play? 2-1. More fuel for the "take Mia" fire.
Crunch the numbers as many ways as you can, it helps you make a more informed decision on what to play. Or not to play.
I'll start the day with Fadin' the Hawks and takin' the Heat.
I'll make a decision to take any additional plays in the 7pm spots after I see how Mia does.
LAC is in the ONLY spot that does not have a losing record (3-3), so I'm leaning towards the Suns,
Mia -4
Good luck with your play today.
Record: 14-16
Split on Sunday (all fades went 4-3, so I missed out on picking up a unit.)
Off a good week, lowered the deficit by 5 games. The goal is to pick up two games plus 1.6 in juice this week.
Four to choose from today.
WF1 (10-22; Hm 2-10, Rd 8-12) says take Atl and GS.
WF2 (6-8; Hm 3-5, Rd 3-3) says take Mem and LAC
For new players looking to learn different ways to 'cap, here's an example of how to dig deeper in stats to try and find something worth playing.
Atl is a play in WF1. Record for that play, all teams, is 10-22. Looks good. But . . .
Dig deeper.
Atl is on the Rd, the play is 8-12 on the Rd, all teams. Still looks good. But . . .
Dig deeper.
What is Atlanta's record as the Fade team in this spot? 1-1. No help there. But . . .
Dig deeper.
What is Mia's record when they are the team to play ON in a fade in this play? 2-1. More fuel for the "take Mia" fire.
Crunch the numbers as many ways as you can, it helps you make a more informed decision on what to play. Or not to play.
I'll start the day with Fadin' the Hawks and takin' the Heat.
I'll make a decision to take any additional plays in the 7pm spots after I see how Mia does.
LAC is in the ONLY spot that does not have a losing record (3-3), so I'm leaning towards the Suns,
Mia -4
Good luck with your play today.
Screwed up my Hm/Rd situation in Mia game.
Atl is Hm, Mia Rd.
Hm record is even worse than Rd for this spot, so I like my position even more.
And from the way I read this playoff picture thing (though I don't follow too closely 'cuz I don't like the sport very much, so correct me if I'm wrong) Atl has less incentive tonight.
They're locked into the play in tournament, can't drop out of it, can't move up into one of the guaranteed top 6 spots.
Mia on the other hand has a chance (slim as it may be) to get into the top 6.
Their last two games are against 25-53 Toronto though, so that helps a bit.
But they need Indy to lose their last three, and with the Pacers also getting the Raptors for a game that's unlikely.
Still, the late push starts tonight if they're to have any chance.
Atl is Hm, Mia Rd.
Hm record is even worse than Rd for this spot, so I like my position even more.
And from the way I read this playoff picture thing (though I don't follow too closely 'cuz I don't like the sport very much, so correct me if I'm wrong) Atl has less incentive tonight.
They're locked into the play in tournament, can't drop out of it, can't move up into one of the guaranteed top 6 spots.
Mia on the other hand has a chance (slim as it may be) to get into the top 6.
Their last two games are against 25-53 Toronto though, so that helps a bit.
But they need Indy to lose their last three, and with the Pacers also getting the Raptors for a game that's unlikely.
Still, the late push starts tonight if they're to have any chance.
Recap: 1-0
Record: 15-16
It took double OT to get the W, and it looked shaky at times, but Mia came through in the end.
My plan was to wait for the results from the early game before making a decision on one of the two later game spots.
If the early game won I would bank the unit and wouldn't post/play a later game.
If the early game lost I would have to decide whether to play a later game or not, but with Mia going into double OT the late games started before Mia ended, sparing me from having to make a decision. Good thing too, because both later spots lost.
I liked the spot Phx was in but did not like the line, -9. Did a score check and saw the Clippers were up 35-4. Yikes!
Got three spots, two games, to choose from today.
WF1 (11-23; Hm 2-11, Rd 9-12) says take Min (Rd) and LAC (Hm)
WF2 (7-9; Hm 3-6, Rd 4-3) says take LAC
Ya gotta like a play that's 2-11 (an 11-2 Fade) but after watching LAC embarrass Phx, do I want to take a chance on the Suns tonight?
Sure they'll want revenge, but wanting and getting are two different things.
And laying 4' on the Rd?
No thanks.
Side note - when both Wrong Fav spots say take the same team, the record is 1-1, no edge there to make me want to take Phx.
That leaves me with the Min/Den spot.
At 9-12 it's just a 57% edge for a Fade, not very appealing.
Digging deeper I see Min has not been in the Fade spot before, so 0-0 record there, and Den is 1-1 as the team to play ON, so no incentive there to make me want to use them tonight.
My goal for the week was to pick up two wins and then work on recouping lost juice.
Got one W last night, think I'll wait for a stronger spot than either of my choices tonight.
In the final week of play there is the added handicapping factor of trying to figure out if teams are going to play or rest their starters.
It's tough enough to beat the books without that extra burden, so unless I get a really strong % play I may wait until the play-in games before making my next bet.
Remember - you don't HAVE to bet every day.
In fact, betting every day is part of the downfall of many who try their hand at this game.
Good luck with your play today.
Record: 15-16
It took double OT to get the W, and it looked shaky at times, but Mia came through in the end.
My plan was to wait for the results from the early game before making a decision on one of the two later game spots.
If the early game won I would bank the unit and wouldn't post/play a later game.
If the early game lost I would have to decide whether to play a later game or not, but with Mia going into double OT the late games started before Mia ended, sparing me from having to make a decision. Good thing too, because both later spots lost.
I liked the spot Phx was in but did not like the line, -9. Did a score check and saw the Clippers were up 35-4. Yikes!
Got three spots, two games, to choose from today.
WF1 (11-23; Hm 2-11, Rd 9-12) says take Min (Rd) and LAC (Hm)
WF2 (7-9; Hm 3-6, Rd 4-3) says take LAC
Ya gotta like a play that's 2-11 (an 11-2 Fade) but after watching LAC embarrass Phx, do I want to take a chance on the Suns tonight?
Sure they'll want revenge, but wanting and getting are two different things.
And laying 4' on the Rd?
No thanks.
Side note - when both Wrong Fav spots say take the same team, the record is 1-1, no edge there to make me want to take Phx.
That leaves me with the Min/Den spot.
At 9-12 it's just a 57% edge for a Fade, not very appealing.
Digging deeper I see Min has not been in the Fade spot before, so 0-0 record there, and Den is 1-1 as the team to play ON, so no incentive there to make me want to use them tonight.
My goal for the week was to pick up two wins and then work on recouping lost juice.
Got one W last night, think I'll wait for a stronger spot than either of my choices tonight.
In the final week of play there is the added handicapping factor of trying to figure out if teams are going to play or rest their starters.
It's tough enough to beat the books without that extra burden, so unless I get a really strong % play I may wait until the play-in games before making my next bet.
Remember - you don't HAVE to bet every day.
In fact, betting every day is part of the downfall of many who try their hand at this game.
Good luck with your play today.
Recap: 0-0
Record: 15-16
Ok, I could say I played too tight last night as both Fades won, but there have been nights when I didn't make plays and saved money as the plays lost. Ya just gotta hope that it all evens out in the end.
Correction from yesterday's post: "Ya gotta like a play that's 2-11 (an 11-2 Fade.)"
That was referring to the Phx/LAC game.
The 2-11 record is for Wrong Favs #1, at Hm.
Phx/LAC was WF2, not 1; correct record was 3-6 (3-7 now.)
Three spots today:
WF1 (11-24 overall; Hm 2-11, Rd 9-13) has Bos
WF2 (7-10 overall; Hm 3-7, Rd 4-3) has Det and Bos
When both programs say take the samme team the record is 1-1.
Also have two totals. Used to get more of these, but haven't had one since Friday last week.
Hou/Utah Un (4-7)
NO/Sac Ov (12-27)
Fading Overs has been a problem for me. When I used it, it lost, when I didn't use it, it won.
Great record (on 3/17 I had it charted at 5-18) but I hardly used it (like I said, not a fan of the NBA and I was still busy with college ball).
Then when I jumped on, it began a reversion toward the mean.
It's at 12-27 today so it's still a good Fade at 69%.
(Subset of that 12-27 - when both programs say take the Ov, as today's #'s say to do, the record is 3-10.)
Slight concern in that the Ov is 8-4 the last two days, with uncertain motivation and reduced minutes for star players as the season winds down.
But what the hell, I'm in a "Why not have a little fun while you still can" mood, so I'm playing it.
NY -2'
Hou/Utah Ov 227'
NO/Sac Un 216
Good luck with your play today...
Record: 15-16
Ok, I could say I played too tight last night as both Fades won, but there have been nights when I didn't make plays and saved money as the plays lost. Ya just gotta hope that it all evens out in the end.
Correction from yesterday's post: "Ya gotta like a play that's 2-11 (an 11-2 Fade.)"
That was referring to the Phx/LAC game.
The 2-11 record is for Wrong Favs #1, at Hm.
Phx/LAC was WF2, not 1; correct record was 3-6 (3-7 now.)
Three spots today:
WF1 (11-24 overall; Hm 2-11, Rd 9-13) has Bos
WF2 (7-10 overall; Hm 3-7, Rd 4-3) has Det and Bos
When both programs say take the samme team the record is 1-1.
Also have two totals. Used to get more of these, but haven't had one since Friday last week.
Hou/Utah Un (4-7)
NO/Sac Ov (12-27)
Fading Overs has been a problem for me. When I used it, it lost, when I didn't use it, it won.
Great record (on 3/17 I had it charted at 5-18) but I hardly used it (like I said, not a fan of the NBA and I was still busy with college ball).
Then when I jumped on, it began a reversion toward the mean.
It's at 12-27 today so it's still a good Fade at 69%.
(Subset of that 12-27 - when both programs say take the Ov, as today's #'s say to do, the record is 3-10.)
Slight concern in that the Ov is 8-4 the last two days, with uncertain motivation and reduced minutes for star players as the season winds down.
But what the hell, I'm in a "Why not have a little fun while you still can" mood, so I'm playing it.
NY -2'
Hou/Utah Ov 227'
NO/Sac Un 216
Good luck with your play today...
Recap: 2-1
Record: 17-17
Indy,
New York came through for us, pretty much in control the whole game. That spot, WF1 at Hm, is now 2-12, or a 12-2 Fade. Good stuff.
From earlier this week: "The goal is to pick up two games plus 1.6 in juice this week."
Last night got me to the first part of the goal, picked up two wins and dug my way out of the seven game deficit I was in, to get back to .500
My thinking going into today was take the last day of the season off, be glad the hole didn't get any deeper than seven games, and use the playoffs to work off the juice and try to bank a profit before the championship series ends.
That WAS the plan.
But then I did the handicapping for today.
And like what I have.
From yesterday, regarding taking the Under on the Sacramento game:
"Slight concern in that the Ov is 8-4 the last two days, with uncertain motivation and reduced minutes for star players as the season winds down."
I'm not sure the reason for that 8-4 is because bench players are getting more minutes and the games are being played at a faster pace as they try get some shots and earn notice to get more playing time. I could look into the average shots per game over the last day or two and compare it to the season average but don't have time.
But I did make time to look into seeing if it's just a coincidence or if the last two or three days of the regular season last year saw an advantage for the Overs.
Here's what I found - the last two days of the regular season last year, the Ov was 12-6.
Small sample, means nothing, right?
So I went one year further back.
Ov was 13-6 on the last two days of the regular season.
Yesterday the Ov was 4-1.
That means in the last two days of the regular season for the past two years, plus yesterday (the second to last day of this regular season, today being the last day) the Ov is 29-13, 69%.
Do I know the reason why? No.
But I am I going to use it today if I have a Fade that calls for an Under?
Hell yeah.
Which is why I'm NOT going to take the day off as mentioned above.
I have three games that call for an Under.
This play was 4-7 going into the Utah game yesterday, which went over by 17' pts. It's now 4-8.
Based on the recent trend for the Ov in the last two days of the regular season, and a spot to Fade that is 4-8, I'm playing all three.
I also have another game using the same spot Boston was in last night, WF1 at Hm, record 2-12. The play says Sacramento should be the Fav, so it's Phoenix for me. (I always recommend to not jump on a streak, but if you've been using it ride that horse until it bucks you.)
Indy is WF1 also, but on the Rd, 9-13, a decent play at 59% but also has a subset that is 1-3. Taking that play too and using Cleveland.
And finally, again, the ONLY situational play I have that has a winning record, WF2 on the Rd (4-3), says Chicago should be the Fav. I'm going with my theory that says "If all the other plays are losing then this one's likely to join them and fall into the red, too" so I'm fading this one, too.
Six plays.
So much for taking a day off!
Wash -1'
Cle -2'
Phx -5
Char/Bos Ov 218
Atl/Min Ov 226'
Utah/LAC Ov 224
Good luck with your play today.
Record: 17-17
Indy,
New York came through for us, pretty much in control the whole game. That spot, WF1 at Hm, is now 2-12, or a 12-2 Fade. Good stuff.
From earlier this week: "The goal is to pick up two games plus 1.6 in juice this week."
Last night got me to the first part of the goal, picked up two wins and dug my way out of the seven game deficit I was in, to get back to .500
My thinking going into today was take the last day of the season off, be glad the hole didn't get any deeper than seven games, and use the playoffs to work off the juice and try to bank a profit before the championship series ends.
That WAS the plan.
But then I did the handicapping for today.
And like what I have.
From yesterday, regarding taking the Under on the Sacramento game:
"Slight concern in that the Ov is 8-4 the last two days, with uncertain motivation and reduced minutes for star players as the season winds down."
I'm not sure the reason for that 8-4 is because bench players are getting more minutes and the games are being played at a faster pace as they try get some shots and earn notice to get more playing time. I could look into the average shots per game over the last day or two and compare it to the season average but don't have time.
But I did make time to look into seeing if it's just a coincidence or if the last two or three days of the regular season last year saw an advantage for the Overs.
Here's what I found - the last two days of the regular season last year, the Ov was 12-6.
Small sample, means nothing, right?
So I went one year further back.
Ov was 13-6 on the last two days of the regular season.
Yesterday the Ov was 4-1.
That means in the last two days of the regular season for the past two years, plus yesterday (the second to last day of this regular season, today being the last day) the Ov is 29-13, 69%.
Do I know the reason why? No.
But I am I going to use it today if I have a Fade that calls for an Under?
Hell yeah.
Which is why I'm NOT going to take the day off as mentioned above.
I have three games that call for an Under.
This play was 4-7 going into the Utah game yesterday, which went over by 17' pts. It's now 4-8.
Based on the recent trend for the Ov in the last two days of the regular season, and a spot to Fade that is 4-8, I'm playing all three.
I also have another game using the same spot Boston was in last night, WF1 at Hm, record 2-12. The play says Sacramento should be the Fav, so it's Phoenix for me. (I always recommend to not jump on a streak, but if you've been using it ride that horse until it bucks you.)
Indy is WF1 also, but on the Rd, 9-13, a decent play at 59% but also has a subset that is 1-3. Taking that play too and using Cleveland.
And finally, again, the ONLY situational play I have that has a winning record, WF2 on the Rd (4-3), says Chicago should be the Fav. I'm going with my theory that says "If all the other plays are losing then this one's likely to join them and fall into the red, too" so I'm fading this one, too.
Six plays.
So much for taking a day off!
Wash -1'
Cle -2'
Phx -5
Char/Bos Ov 218
Atl/Min Ov 226'
Utah/LAC Ov 224
Good luck with your play today.
Recap: 2-4
Record: 19-21
I did not expect to be here today. While I was handicapping Friday's card I looked ahead to Saturday and saw there were no games scheduled, so I thought Friday was the last day of the regular season.
Yesterday I noticed there are games today.
Not sure why the NBA would not schedule a single game for a Saturday, which is one of the highest revenue-producing days of the week, but, here I am on Sunday 'capping the card.
Not a very happy handicapper either. Here's why:
I've noted in my last two posts how there's an edge for Overs the last couple days of the season.
Last two days of the season, last two years, it's a combined 26-12.
So I used three Overs on Friday, because of the 26-12, and because they fit a nice system I had for Fading Unders.
And Overs went 10-3-1, 76%.
10-3, 76%.
Only three of fourteen games stayed under, and I had two of them on the Over. That's just shit luck.
Friday's plan to start the day was lay off the games, and be happy that I got out of the seven game hole I dug myself. But I liked the stats and the three Overs I had circled, so I made my bets and now I'm two games under.
Today's plan is simple - I've been handicapping the NBA for a couple weeks now but not playing them despite having a lot of great stats to use. I've been leaving money on the table. So today I'm playing every game that qualifies.
I'm not crazy about the Brooklyn and Chicago spots, even with the big spreads.
I don't like the Atlanta Ov spot. They're one of the teams that screwed me on Friday, staying Un on a day where everyone else was going Ov. And the line stinks. But it qualifies, so ...
SA -4'
Hou -2'
Wash/Bos Ov 226'
Atl/Ind Ov 239'
Char/Cle Ov 209'
Brk +16
Chi +15
Record: 19-21
I did not expect to be here today. While I was handicapping Friday's card I looked ahead to Saturday and saw there were no games scheduled, so I thought Friday was the last day of the regular season.
Yesterday I noticed there are games today.
Not sure why the NBA would not schedule a single game for a Saturday, which is one of the highest revenue-producing days of the week, but, here I am on Sunday 'capping the card.
Not a very happy handicapper either. Here's why:
I've noted in my last two posts how there's an edge for Overs the last couple days of the season.
Last two days of the season, last two years, it's a combined 26-12.
So I used three Overs on Friday, because of the 26-12, and because they fit a nice system I had for Fading Unders.
And Overs went 10-3-1, 76%.
10-3, 76%.
Only three of fourteen games stayed under, and I had two of them on the Over. That's just shit luck.
Friday's plan to start the day was lay off the games, and be happy that I got out of the seven game hole I dug myself. But I liked the stats and the three Overs I had circled, so I made my bets and now I'm two games under.
Today's plan is simple - I've been handicapping the NBA for a couple weeks now but not playing them despite having a lot of great stats to use. I've been leaving money on the table. So today I'm playing every game that qualifies.
I'm not crazy about the Brooklyn and Chicago spots, even with the big spreads.
I don't like the Atlanta Ov spot. They're one of the teams that screwed me on Friday, staying Un on a day where everyone else was going Ov. And the line stinks. But it qualifies, so ...
SA -4'
Hou -2'
Wash/Bos Ov 226'
Atl/Ind Ov 239'
Char/Cle Ov 209'
Brk +16
Chi +15
Left two few plays off of the previous post, and the records for the plays.
Beow is the full card with the records for the plays I'm fading next to the spreads.
The top three are in the only play I have that has a winning record.
I've been fading these thinking it's going to join the other plays with losing records but I haven't done well as it's still winning at 5-3.
Orl -4' (5-3)
SA -4' (5-3)
Sac -16' (5-3)
Hou -2' (3-9)
Wash/Bos Ov 226' (6-9)
Atl/Ind Ov 239' (6-9)
Char/Cle Ov 209' (6-9)
Brk +16 (6-11)
Chi +15 (6-11)
Beow is the full card with the records for the plays I'm fading next to the spreads.
The top three are in the only play I have that has a winning record.
I've been fading these thinking it's going to join the other plays with losing records but I haven't done well as it's still winning at 5-3.
Orl -4' (5-3)
SA -4' (5-3)
Sac -16' (5-3)
Hou -2' (3-9)
Wash/Bos Ov 226' (6-9)
Atl/Ind Ov 239' (6-9)
Char/Cle Ov 209' (6-9)
Brk +16 (6-11)
Chi +15 (6-11)
Recap: 8-1
Record: 27-22
Finished the NBA reg season with a profit.
And I did it by finding something to Fade.
It's a theme that runs through all my internet posts and all the articles I've written over the years for new bettors and/those who are losing their Battle with the Books:
Everybody who doesn't 'cap their own games is looking for a winner to tail/follow.
98% of sports bettors lose.
So why are you looking for a needle in a haystack??!!
It's much easier to find someone/something that loses and Fade them/it.
My weekly goal was to pick up two wins to get my record back to even, then pick up the lost juice. I hit both goals and then some (and the only play I had with a winning record went 0-3 and now also has a losing record, as anticipated.)
Hit three of my four season goals: Did no damage to my bankroll, made a profit, and had fun.
Nowhere close to my other goal, 67%. I had situational spots with records that might have gotten me there, just didn't play enough games.
Now, the post season.
Just because something worked in the regular season does not mean it will work in the post season.
I'll chart/track the same plays as I used reg season, but also keep new records for them in the post.
One game qualifies for Tue: LAL/NO Un.
This spot was 6-12 reg season, a 67% Fade.
Not sure if I'll play it.
As I said, I'm not sure how my spots will do in the post season, I'd like to get results from a few games before I jump in.
The opening 228 has already dropped 3-4 pts in my favor, 225 is now the common number with a few 224 starting to show up.
No need to make a decison today since the line is moving in the desired direction, might as well see where it's at tomorrow.
Good luck with your play this post season . . .
Record: 27-22
Finished the NBA reg season with a profit.
And I did it by finding something to Fade.
It's a theme that runs through all my internet posts and all the articles I've written over the years for new bettors and/those who are losing their Battle with the Books:
Everybody who doesn't 'cap their own games is looking for a winner to tail/follow.
98% of sports bettors lose.
So why are you looking for a needle in a haystack??!!
It's much easier to find someone/something that loses and Fade them/it.
My weekly goal was to pick up two wins to get my record back to even, then pick up the lost juice. I hit both goals and then some (and the only play I had with a winning record went 0-3 and now also has a losing record, as anticipated.)
Hit three of my four season goals: Did no damage to my bankroll, made a profit, and had fun.
Nowhere close to my other goal, 67%. I had situational spots with records that might have gotten me there, just didn't play enough games.
Now, the post season.
Just because something worked in the regular season does not mean it will work in the post season.
I'll chart/track the same plays as I used reg season, but also keep new records for them in the post.
One game qualifies for Tue: LAL/NO Un.
This spot was 6-12 reg season, a 67% Fade.
Not sure if I'll play it.
As I said, I'm not sure how my spots will do in the post season, I'd like to get results from a few games before I jump in.
The opening 228 has already dropped 3-4 pts in my favor, 225 is now the common number with a few 224 starting to show up.
No need to make a decison today since the line is moving in the desired direction, might as well see where it's at tomorrow.
Good luck with your play this post season . . .
would never use a program, or a computer to find my plays nothing better than Pen and Paper and go thru the stats, past results, injuries, and sometimes just gut feeling about games, been doing this for a long time, I was good enough at this to get a job as a line adjuster for a major off shore sports book in the late 90's WWTS , I just think nothing is better than good ol homework, wish you the best this playoff year, I rarelt bet NBA till playoffs pure college , but have done well, I do pay attention the last 3-4 weeks of NBA , went 3-0 yesterday when many lost, I hope to do well this playoffs we will see gl brother wishing you the best 151 I am on Lakers tomorrow and Warriors and I bet Dallas for series vs LA congrats on the 8-1
kings have too many injuries
No plays for me tonight, yet.
Just dropping in with some additional thoughts and numbers.
one151rum, my pal from C Mall,
Thanks for the "congrats."
It took me to the last day of the reg season to gain a profit, but I got there, and in the end that's all that matters.
My own fault really, I had good stats to work with but just didn't use them properly.
"Nothing better than Pen and Paper."
Same here. I'm Old School, all my charts are in spiral notebooks, the stack of notepads from years past is almost 12 inches high now.
Each day gets its own page. Plays are in different color inks, for ex. Wrong Fav 1 spots are in orange ink, WF2 sky blue (helps separate them and also helps when looking back to check on how individual teams did within each play.)
Lines are in blue ink, records are in black. Red check mark next to plays that lost, green next to wins.
I much prefer it this way instead of a database on a pc.
"I rarely bet NBA till playoffs pure college, I do pay attention the last 3-4 weeks of NBA."
Same here again, which is why my first NBA post is March 27. I enjoy watching college. I don't know, seems purer to me?
I have no interest in NBA, I try watching it but always end up changing channels.
* Tonight for example, I'll have $ on the Laker game but instead of watching it I'll be tuned into a double feature on Lifetime, "Mother May I Sleep with Danger" and "From Straight A's to XXX."
Thanks for stopping in buddy.
Back to 'capping.
I have one more play that qualifies tonight, not sure how I missed it yesterday.
Wrong Favorite, Play #1 says take LAL. This play was 12-26, all teams, reg season; 9-14 for Rd teams like LAL tonight.
Digging deeper into stats, LAL was WF1 once this season, and was one of the 26 losses. It was a Rd spot for them, one the 14 losses there.
NO was the team to play ON three times this season; they went 2-1.
All signs point to Fading LA.
Well, all but one. My #'s say LAL wins by Double Digits. The spread is NO -1. It's rare that I have a DD differential between my # and the books, but when there is the Fade is 1-3, which points to not Fading LA tonight.
Like every game, you can find stats to favor either side.
Not sure what to do here.
My other play is LAL/NO Un, a 6-12 spot that says take the Ov.
The opening # was 228, dropped to 223 yesterday, buy backs from middlers came in (?) along with Joe P buying the Over as they tend to do so it's back to 224'/225 today. I'm regretting not grabbing that Ov when it hit 223 yesterday.
Let's look at some averages.
LAL PPG on the Rd 117'
NO PPG at Hm 115
Avg total 232' which is Ov tonight's # of 224'/225
H2H? In two games in 2024 they combined for 232 and 261; BOTH Ov tonight's #.
Two other times they played this season, 238 and 222.
Not a lot to support the Un in these stats.
I like to buy a game when I have a strong feeling for it, when I believe I see things clearly.
It may win, it may lose, but I had a strong conviction going in and no second thought/hindsight afterwards regardless of the results.
I don't have that conviction tonight. My stats say NO and Ov but my gut says LA and Un.
Smart thing to do would be to lay off. BUT . . . all season long I've left $ on the table by not using my stats, so how smart was that? Not very.
What to do, what to do? FukifIknow.
Hopefully I'll decide on a play before tip off. I'll post it if I do.
*YES, I'm kidding about watching anything on Lifetime. But for me the NBA is almost just as unwatchable.
Just dropping in with some additional thoughts and numbers.
one151rum, my pal from C Mall,
Thanks for the "congrats."
It took me to the last day of the reg season to gain a profit, but I got there, and in the end that's all that matters.
My own fault really, I had good stats to work with but just didn't use them properly.
"Nothing better than Pen and Paper."
Same here. I'm Old School, all my charts are in spiral notebooks, the stack of notepads from years past is almost 12 inches high now.
Each day gets its own page. Plays are in different color inks, for ex. Wrong Fav 1 spots are in orange ink, WF2 sky blue (helps separate them and also helps when looking back to check on how individual teams did within each play.)
Lines are in blue ink, records are in black. Red check mark next to plays that lost, green next to wins.
I much prefer it this way instead of a database on a pc.
"I rarely bet NBA till playoffs pure college, I do pay attention the last 3-4 weeks of NBA."
Same here again, which is why my first NBA post is March 27. I enjoy watching college. I don't know, seems purer to me?
I have no interest in NBA, I try watching it but always end up changing channels.
* Tonight for example, I'll have $ on the Laker game but instead of watching it I'll be tuned into a double feature on Lifetime, "Mother May I Sleep with Danger" and "From Straight A's to XXX."
Thanks for stopping in buddy.
Back to 'capping.
I have one more play that qualifies tonight, not sure how I missed it yesterday.
Wrong Favorite, Play #1 says take LAL. This play was 12-26, all teams, reg season; 9-14 for Rd teams like LAL tonight.
Digging deeper into stats, LAL was WF1 once this season, and was one of the 26 losses. It was a Rd spot for them, one the 14 losses there.
NO was the team to play ON three times this season; they went 2-1.
All signs point to Fading LA.
Well, all but one. My #'s say LAL wins by Double Digits. The spread is NO -1. It's rare that I have a DD differential between my # and the books, but when there is the Fade is 1-3, which points to not Fading LA tonight.
Like every game, you can find stats to favor either side.
Not sure what to do here.
My other play is LAL/NO Un, a 6-12 spot that says take the Ov.
The opening # was 228, dropped to 223 yesterday, buy backs from middlers came in (?) along with Joe P buying the Over as they tend to do so it's back to 224'/225 today. I'm regretting not grabbing that Ov when it hit 223 yesterday.
Let's look at some averages.
LAL PPG on the Rd 117'
NO PPG at Hm 115
Avg total 232' which is Ov tonight's # of 224'/225
H2H? In two games in 2024 they combined for 232 and 261; BOTH Ov tonight's #.
Two other times they played this season, 238 and 222.
Not a lot to support the Un in these stats.
I like to buy a game when I have a strong feeling for it, when I believe I see things clearly.
It may win, it may lose, but I had a strong conviction going in and no second thought/hindsight afterwards regardless of the results.
I don't have that conviction tonight. My stats say NO and Ov but my gut says LA and Un.
Smart thing to do would be to lay off. BUT . . . all season long I've left $ on the table by not using my stats, so how smart was that? Not very.
What to do, what to do? FukifIknow.
Hopefully I'll decide on a play before tip off. I'll post it if I do.
*YES, I'm kidding about watching anything on Lifetime. But for me the NBA is almost just as unwatchable.
Regular season record: 27-22
Postseason record: 0-0
For my last post:
"My stats say NO and Ov but my gut says LA and Un."
The biggest mistake I made during the season was not using the plays I was charting. I swore I was not going to make that same mistake in the postseason, but I didn't use/Fade LAL/NO Un, (6-12 reg season) or my other play, WF #1 says take LAL, (12-26, 68% Fade.)
I let my gut override my stats and this saved me from going 0-2.
That that should be good news, yes?
No. Because as I said, what works in the regular season doesn't always work in the postseason.
And the first day of the postseason saw my numbers go 0-2. I was relying on them to help me in the postseason but I may be SOL.
Wednesday night wasn't much better.
I have a play called 3W/3L on my charts, records Hm 1-4, Rd 7-12, both a solid fade. The play called for a bet ON Chicago and they covered. So my Fade spots are now 0-3 going in tonight's games. Not a lot of confidence using them in the postseason.
Two games qualify tonight.
Chi/Mia Un (6-12 reg season, 1-0 post)
Sac/NO Ov (13-27 overall reg season, 0-0 post)
In this spot, regular season, Chi was 2-2, Mia is 0-0, no edge.
In this spot, regular season, NO is 2-2, Sac 1-4, nice edge here at a combined 3-6, BUT one of those three wins was this same matchup, NO/Sac on 4/11 and that game sailed over by 40 points!
I'm going to ride the postseason record of 3-0 until/if the Fades become viable again.
Chi/Mia Un 207
Postseason record: 0-0
For my last post:
"My stats say NO and Ov but my gut says LA and Un."
The biggest mistake I made during the season was not using the plays I was charting. I swore I was not going to make that same mistake in the postseason, but I didn't use/Fade LAL/NO Un, (6-12 reg season) or my other play, WF #1 says take LAL, (12-26, 68% Fade.)
I let my gut override my stats and this saved me from going 0-2.
That that should be good news, yes?
No. Because as I said, what works in the regular season doesn't always work in the postseason.
And the first day of the postseason saw my numbers go 0-2. I was relying on them to help me in the postseason but I may be SOL.
Wednesday night wasn't much better.
I have a play called 3W/3L on my charts, records Hm 1-4, Rd 7-12, both a solid fade. The play called for a bet ON Chicago and they covered. So my Fade spots are now 0-3 going in tonight's games. Not a lot of confidence using them in the postseason.
Two games qualify tonight.
Chi/Mia Un (6-12 reg season, 1-0 post)
Sac/NO Ov (13-27 overall reg season, 0-0 post)
In this spot, regular season, Chi was 2-2, Mia is 0-0, no edge.
In this spot, regular season, NO is 2-2, Sac 1-4, nice edge here at a combined 3-6, BUT one of those three wins was this same matchup, NO/Sac on 4/11 and that game sailed over by 40 points!
I'm going to ride the postseason record of 3-0 until/if the Fades become viable again.
Chi/Mia Un 207
Regular season record: 27-22
Postseason record: 1-0
Recap:1-0
Picked up a W with my only post season play thus far when Mia/Chi slipped in Un 207 with 203 scored.
Plays in the systems I use have been few and far apart, and ones I liked enough to play are even rarer.
All plays combined are sitting at 8-7, so the plays that worked so well as Fades in the reg season have no value post season.
Like I always say, "What works in the regular season doesn't always work in the postseason" and that's what I'm seeing so far this year.
Today I have a few spots to choose from.
I've written about two methods I have for trying to identify Wrong Favs but I actually have three.
One hardly ever has any games that qualify so I never mention it. During the entire NCAA season it only gave me 15 plays; Hm 2-2, Rd 2-9.
I've only been 'capping NBA since NCAA ended, and it has kicked out zero plays. So I was shocked to see it has one tonight - Minnesota.
No record on the play in the NBA, but it was 2-9 for Rd spots (like Min tonight) in the NCAA.
One of my other NBA WF spots has Minn too, 5-6 Rd, and it's 1-1 in the post season, both Rd spots.
So what's more likely, the 1-1 post season record goes to 2-1 or 1-2?
Based on the the reg season NCAA #'s (2-9) for this spot, I'm going with 1-2.
Phx -4'
Postseason record: 1-0
Recap:1-0
Picked up a W with my only post season play thus far when Mia/Chi slipped in Un 207 with 203 scored.
Plays in the systems I use have been few and far apart, and ones I liked enough to play are even rarer.
All plays combined are sitting at 8-7, so the plays that worked so well as Fades in the reg season have no value post season.
Like I always say, "What works in the regular season doesn't always work in the postseason" and that's what I'm seeing so far this year.
Today I have a few spots to choose from.
I've written about two methods I have for trying to identify Wrong Favs but I actually have three.
One hardly ever has any games that qualify so I never mention it. During the entire NCAA season it only gave me 15 plays; Hm 2-2, Rd 2-9.
I've only been 'capping NBA since NCAA ended, and it has kicked out zero plays. So I was shocked to see it has one tonight - Minnesota.
No record on the play in the NBA, but it was 2-9 for Rd spots (like Min tonight) in the NCAA.
One of my other NBA WF spots has Minn too, 5-6 Rd, and it's 1-1 in the post season, both Rd spots.
So what's more likely, the 1-1 post season record goes to 2-1 or 1-2?
Based on the the reg season NCAA #'s (2-9) for this spot, I'm going with 1-2.
Phx -4'
Regular season record: 27-22
Postseason record: 1-1
Recap: 0-1
Missed with God-awful Phoenix last time. Not worth taking time to check it but I'm pretty sure they lost every single quarter. Slugs.
Today I have a spot that calls for the Clippers/Mavs game to go Over.
Regular season 14-30, postseason 1-4.
That's an easy decision to make right there.
Also have another spot that says take Dallas, record for Favs in this spot, regular season, was 8-13, record for Hm teams 2-5, postseason Hm1-1, Favs 1-1.
Today:
LAC +6
LAC/Dal Un 209'
Postseason record: 1-1
Recap: 0-1
Missed with God-awful Phoenix last time. Not worth taking time to check it but I'm pretty sure they lost every single quarter. Slugs.
Today I have a spot that calls for the Clippers/Mavs game to go Over.
Regular season 14-30, postseason 1-4.
That's an easy decision to make right there.
Also have another spot that says take Dallas, record for Favs in this spot, regular season, was 8-13, record for Hm teams 2-5, postseason Hm1-1, Favs 1-1.
Today:
LAC +6
LAC/Dal Un 209'
