i dont see any reason to think PHI is the play here. but last thurs i saw no reason why SA was the play vs. DEN, except revenge factor. the most a starter played was 33 mins last night, LBJ 30 1/2. the only quality win that PHI has through 21 games is vs DET and that was with iverson, so quality of that is not that heavy. o/u combo of CLE away and PHI home is 6-13-1, last three matchups went under.
YOU said: "dont see any reason to think PHI is the play here"
this statement makes the play all that much better. Not being a prick, but that is what most of the betting public will think too. :wink:
Why is a team that has won by 12+ and covered 9 straight times only giving 6.5 or 7 pts to crappy team:wink:
Cleveland (18-3) at Philadelphia (9-12)
btw, Philly has a losing record at home. How ez will this be for Cleveland?? You are over thinking this one. I know, I did it last night when I knew Washington was the right side to be on but didn't bet them.
You will win more than lose by picking these spots. Does Philly get blown out by 24 tonight, maybe, but I will take these spots all day everyday. GL with whatever you decide.
AZ
DING DING DING DING....THE BELL IS GOING OFF!!! :think2:
haha, yea. i had WAS ML last night, but there was actually an angle there. Same with ORL last night. DET has been playing horrible lately and it was a perfect situation for an improving WAS to get a win. ORL line would have been more of a pk if POR had not been so good at home this year, but ORL has been good on b2b. I see no angle for PHI tonight. give me one, please, then i will consider them.
I used to cap by the numbers but information paralysis set in. I started a family and my extra time went down the tubes. I bet more now on situations and instincts. I also have a network of opinions I respect as well as watch lines and numbers. I spend more time now trying to be on the side of vegas. Not a perfect process or system, but I do okay.
Some opinions I respect tell me to stay away from the freight train that is Cleveland right now, but I will be on them anyway. Not as big as I want to be, but like I said, I do respect opinions of others and they are keeping my enthusiasm under control.
I may be really hard headed but it seems to be one of the best spots in a while. This line could have been set at 9 and the action would still be 2:1 on Cleveland. Cleveland sleep walked through a home game last night. They set the record they wanted to set with 12+ point covers. That was the one reason I only bet Tor small last night. I knew there would not be a back door cover. Toronto was going to have to be in the game or forget it. They were never in the game.
So we have a team playing back to back games, history made last night, ez win and cover, travel day, and a line set at least 2-3 pts lower than it needed to be set to get more than 50% action on Cleveland. Add in the heavy action on Cleveland with NO line movement and to me it sets up for a play on Philly, despite the fact that Philly is garbage right now and has given us no reason to back them. It's just a spot I will play almost always anymore. Last thing, home dogs getting very little love like this have cashed for me a lot this year. TIFWIW. GL with whatever you decide.
SORRY BREWER FOR HIJACKING YOUR THREAD, BUT I KNOW THIS IS A GAME OF INTEREST TO YOU AS WELL.
AZ
Some opinions I respect tell me to stay away from the freight train that is Cleveland right now, but I will be on them anyway. Not as big as I want to be, but like I said, I do respect opinions of others and they are keeping my enthusiasm under control.
I may be really hard headed but it seems to be one of the best spots in a while. This line could have been set at 9 and the action would still be 2:1 on Cleveland. Cleveland sleep walked through a home game last night. They set the record they wanted to set with 12+ point covers. That was the one reason I only bet Tor small last night. I knew there would not be a back door cover. Toronto was going to have to be in the game or forget it. They were never in the game.
So we have a team playing back to back games, history made last night, ez win and cover, travel day, and a line set at least 2-3 pts lower than it needed to be set to get more than 50% action on Cleveland. Add in the heavy action on Cleveland with NO line movement and to me it sets up for a play on Philly, despite the fact that Philly is garbage right now and has given us no reason to back them. It's just a spot I will play almost always anymore. Last thing, home dogs getting very little love like this have cashed for me a lot this year. TIFWIW. GL with whatever you decide.
SORRY BREWER FOR HIJACKING YOUR THREAD, BUT I KNOW THIS IS A GAME OF INTEREST TO YOU AS WELL.
AZ
================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 27-21, +$1237
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 154-154-5
#1 picks: 23-20
Totals: 160-146-7
#1 picks: 19-23-1
=====================================
Day 44:
Totals ice, ice cold right now and Sides (14-4 with all picks before last night and 5-4 last night) hot...LAL 4-0 ATS in back-enders...Chart-play for Minny and the Minny Under (as DEN had an Over-7 snapped)...Chart-play also for the CLE Over as their Under-6 snapped...
Debating a play right now...Might be a 1Q Over, but I haven't decided...Nothing jumping off the page and I am turning gutless to against CLE again...I almost hope they cover because I will definitely fade them against Philly on the back-end of this home-and-home on FRI with Philly getting double-digits...
Sides:
#1 LAL -12.5
#2 NY +8
#3 Phi +6.5
#4 Tor -3
#5 Char +12.5
#6 Atl +6
#7 Min +12.5
#8 Memp -2
#9 Milw +1
Totals:
#1 NY ov 214
#2 Phi ov 186.5
#3 Milw ov 220
#4 Min un 207.5
#5 Atl un 189
#6 Char un 185.5
#7 Memp ov 201
#8 Tor ov 210
#9 LAL un 216
No BETs yet...
GL... <!-- / message -->
================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 27-21, +$1237
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 154-154-5
#1 picks: 23-20
Totals: 160-146-7
#1 picks: 19-23-1
=====================================
Day 44:
Totals ice, ice cold right now and Sides (14-4 with all picks before last night and 5-4 last night) hot...LAL 4-0 ATS in back-enders...Chart-play for Minny and the Minny Under (as DEN had an Over-7 snapped)...Chart-play also for the CLE Over as their Under-6 snapped...
Debating a play right now...Might be a 1Q Over, but I haven't decided...Nothing jumping off the page and I am turning gutless to against CLE again...I almost hope they cover because I will definitely fade them against Philly on the back-end of this home-and-home on FRI with Philly getting double-digits...
Sides:
#1 LAL -12.5
#2 NY +8
#3 Phi +6.5
#4 Tor -3
#5 Char +12.5
#6 Atl +6
#7 Min +12.5
#8 Memp -2
#9 Milw +1
Totals:
#1 NY ov 214
#2 Phi ov 186.5
#3 Milw ov 220
#4 Min un 207.5
#5 Atl un 189
#6 Char un 185.5
#7 Memp ov 201
#8 Tor ov 210
#9 LAL un 216
No BETs yet...
GL... <!-- / message -->
================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
Really thinking this Lakers game will be a slaughter...2 bets for now...
BET:
Level 1 -- Minnesota Timberwolves +12.5, laying $250 to win $250 -- No Kenyon Martin and Melo will have limite minutes...Chart-play for Minny after covering last night to snap the NC7...Chart-play stronger when the team breaks the NC streak with a loss that covered, rather than a win that covered...New coach McHale looking for that first win, so this tream will be giving effort tonight...
Level 1 -- Minnesota/Denver Under 208.5, laying $252.50 to win $250 -- These 2 teams have net twice already and both stayed Under this number...The game at Denver was a 174 if I remember correctly...Again, no K'Mart and Melo may be limited...Minny 4-1 to the Under in back-enders this season...Again, a chart-play to the Under here as DEN went Under last time out after 7 straight Overs...I could be wrong, of course, but I really hope I don't get swept here with 2 chart-plays like this, not to mention the other factors in my favor, IMO...
BET:
Level 1 -- Minnesota Timberwolves +12.5, laying $250 to win $250 -- No Kenyon Martin and Melo will have limite minutes...Chart-play for Minny after covering last night to snap the NC7...Chart-play stronger when the team breaks the NC streak with a loss that covered, rather than a win that covered...New coach McHale looking for that first win, so this tream will be giving effort tonight...
Level 1 -- Minnesota/Denver Under 208.5, laying $252.50 to win $250 -- These 2 teams have net twice already and both stayed Under this number...The game at Denver was a 174 if I remember correctly...Again, no K'Mart and Melo may be limited...Minny 4-1 to the Under in back-enders this season...Again, a chart-play to the Under here as DEN went Under last time out after 7 straight Overs...I could be wrong, of course, but I really hope I don't get swept here with 2 chart-plays like this, not to mention the other factors in my favor, IMO...
================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 28-22, +$1234.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 158-158-6
#1 picks: 23-21
Totals: 164-151-7
#1 picks: 20-23-1
=====================================
Day 45:
Totals had their 4th straight losing night, but the #1 Total did win...Work getting busier, so time may be more limited, but I do want to make money at this as it is still a hobby for me after doing it full-time for a few years...I don't like the board at all tonight, but if you held a gun to my head, I would take the Port/Utah game Over as it a chart-play that way for PORT...WASH looks tempting as Boston has NO tomorrow...WAS swept BOS last year in the regular season I think (goign from memory on that one)...I may have to start posting before I get to work, because now that the busy season is about to hit, once I get here, time is becoming much more limited...
No bets unless a 2H play presents itself...And I am hoping this weekend presents some good opportunities...
Sides:
#1 Was +10
#2 Port +2.5
#3 Char +13
Totals:
#1 Port ov 194
#2 Was ov 196
#3 Char un 191
GL... <!-- / message -->
================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 28-22, +$1234.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 158-158-6
#1 picks: 23-21
Totals: 164-151-7
#1 picks: 20-23-1
=====================================
Day 45:
Totals had their 4th straight losing night, but the #1 Total did win...Work getting busier, so time may be more limited, but I do want to make money at this as it is still a hobby for me after doing it full-time for a few years...I don't like the board at all tonight, but if you held a gun to my head, I would take the Port/Utah game Over as it a chart-play that way for PORT...WASH looks tempting as Boston has NO tomorrow...WAS swept BOS last year in the regular season I think (goign from memory on that one)...I may have to start posting before I get to work, because now that the busy season is about to hit, once I get here, time is becoming much more limited...
No bets unless a 2H play presents itself...And I am hoping this weekend presents some good opportunities...
Sides:
#1 Was +10
#2 Port +2.5
#3 Char +13
Totals:
#1 Port ov 194
#2 Was ov 196
#3 Char un 191
GL... <!-- / message -->
================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
Southern Miss, the back-check you requested is as follows:
You asked for the results of a team that is a Road FAV on back-to-back nights and what is their ATS record on that second night...
NOT counting this season, from 1991-92 thru 2007-08 (17 seasons):
those teams are 224-243-13 ATS...
Below are the breakdowns (1st day results | 2nd day results):
Breakdowns for the 243 NC's:
W/C | L/NC -- 84
W/C | W/NC -- 46
L/NC | L/NC -- 53
W/NC | L/NC -- 32
L/NC | W/NC -- 13
W/NC | W/NC - 12
W/Tie | L/NC -- 3
Breakdowns for the 224 C's:
W/C | W/C -- 115
L/NC | W/C -- 73
W/NC | W/C --31
W/Tie | W/C --5
Breakdowns for the 13 Pushes:
W/C | W/Tie -- 8
L/NC | W/Tie -- 5
I have the winning percentage and wins/losses for both teams for every match-up (on Day 2), etc., so you can possibly filter out a dominant team beating a patsy on Day 2...
If you want to study the results and break them down further, let me know and I'll post a link to the results for you to look at....
You asked for the results of a team that is a Road FAV on back-to-back nights and what is their ATS record on that second night...
NOT counting this season, from 1991-92 thru 2007-08 (17 seasons):
those teams are 224-243-13 ATS...
Below are the breakdowns (1st day results | 2nd day results):
Breakdowns for the 243 NC's:
W/C | L/NC -- 84
W/C | W/NC -- 46
L/NC | L/NC -- 53
W/NC | L/NC -- 32
L/NC | W/NC -- 13
W/NC | W/NC - 12
W/Tie | L/NC -- 3
Breakdowns for the 224 C's:
W/C | W/C -- 115
L/NC | W/C -- 73
W/NC | W/C --31
W/Tie | W/C --5
Breakdowns for the 13 Pushes:
W/C | W/Tie -- 8
L/NC | W/Tie -- 5
I have the winning percentage and wins/losses for both teams for every match-up (on Day 2), etc., so you can possibly filter out a dominant team beating a patsy on Day 2...
If you want to study the results and break them down further, let me know and I'll post a link to the results for you to look at....
================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 28-22, +$1234.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 159-160-6
#1 picks: 23-22
Totals: 166-152-7
#1 picks: 20-24-1
=====================================
Day 46:
Getting busier for me, but I will continue write-ups whenever I can...sy season is about to hit, once I get here, time is becoming much more limited...Like one play...hate to go against CLE, but...
Sides:
#1 Phi +10.5
#2 NO +6.5
#3 Min +8
#4 Det -6
#5 Memp +2
#6 LAC +8.5
#7 LAL -16.5
#8 Tor +2.5
#9 Atl +2.5
#10 Phoe -1.5
#11 GS +1.5
Totals:
#1 Phoe ov 209.5
#2 Memp ov 199.5
#3 Det ov 200#4 Tor ov 205
#5 Phi ov 189.5
#6 Atl ov 193
#7 NO un 189
#8 LAC un 189
#9 Min ov 192.5
#10 LAL un 215
#11 GS un 215
BET:
Level 1 -- Philadelphia 76ers +10, laying $250 to win $272.50 -- Hate to go against a C10, but the Cavs cannot cover forever...This is the back-end of a Home-and-Home and where is the motivation here for CLE compared to Philly?...CLE just beat them at Philly...The Sixers might think they "had them" last game, but the Cavs outscored them by 17 in the 3Q to pull away a bit...Philly still got back in it in the 4Q, making it a 2-possession game...The Sixers have been incredibly flaky, losing 5 straight Home games, but they have actually won their last 2 road games...Only 7 teams since 1991-92 have gone beyonf a C10, which doesn't really anything for this particular instance, but I like taking teams who lost the first of a home-and-home series, especially gettign double-digits...
GL... <!-- / message -->
================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
<!-- / message -->
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 28-22, +$1234.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 159-160-6
#1 picks: 23-22
Totals: 166-152-7
#1 picks: 20-24-1
=====================================
Day 46:
Getting busier for me, but I will continue write-ups whenever I can...sy season is about to hit, once I get here, time is becoming much more limited...Like one play...hate to go against CLE, but...
Sides:
#1 Phi +10.5
#2 NO +6.5
#3 Min +8
#4 Det -6
#5 Memp +2
#6 LAC +8.5
#7 LAL -16.5
#8 Tor +2.5
#9 Atl +2.5
#10 Phoe -1.5
#11 GS +1.5
Totals:
#1 Phoe ov 209.5
#2 Memp ov 199.5
#3 Det ov 200#4 Tor ov 205
#5 Phi ov 189.5
#6 Atl ov 193
#7 NO un 189
#8 LAC un 189
#9 Min ov 192.5
#10 LAL un 215
#11 GS un 215
BET:
Level 1 -- Philadelphia 76ers +10, laying $250 to win $272.50 -- Hate to go against a C10, but the Cavs cannot cover forever...This is the back-end of a Home-and-Home and where is the motivation here for CLE compared to Philly?...CLE just beat them at Philly...The Sixers might think they "had them" last game, but the Cavs outscored them by 17 in the 3Q to pull away a bit...Philly still got back in it in the 4Q, making it a 2-possession game...The Sixers have been incredibly flaky, losing 5 straight Home games, but they have actually won their last 2 road games...Only 7 teams since 1991-92 have gone beyonf a C10, which doesn't really anything for this particular instance, but I like taking teams who lost the first of a home-and-home series, especially gettign double-digits...
GL... <!-- / message -->
================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================
<!-- / message -->
