NBA 2008-09, Week 4 thread...

[brewers7]

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
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Bets record:
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Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 16-14, +$90
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Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
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Sides: 90-98-4
#1 picks: 15-11

Totals: 105-86-1
#1 picks: 10-16
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Day 27:

Got cute yesterday and bet my #2 side instead of my #1 side on the moneyline and it backfired...#1 wins and #2 loses although it was still a winning day thanx to betting it on the moneyline as my #1 total was a cakewalk winner, as it is pure foolishness to take a Wiz/Knicks game under with the pace the Knicks play at...The logic was simple....Houston does not play at a fast pace, yet they played the Wiz into the mid 190s the day before...So with the Knicks pace, that 204 was a STEAL as every quarter went Over as the game went almost 40 points Over the Vegas total, which the public squares bet downward all day long...

Don't like much today...May bet the SAC/LAL 1Q over and the reasons become self-evident when you look at the 1Q totals for these 2 teams this year, especially for SAC, who comes out of the gate fast...The Lakers do, too, before they settle into their triangle offense, so they don't have as many 1Q Overs as SAC, but at Home, they seem to be very frenetic the first 6 minutes of every game at Staples for whatever reason, so a bet may be in order...We'll see...

Sides:

#1 Tor +5
#2 Min +10
#3 Phi -6.5
#4 Sac +17
#5 Chi +8.5

Totals:

#1 Sac ov 208.5
#2 Tor un 185 #3 Chi ov 206.5
#4 Min ov 189
#5 Phi un 208


NO BETS (yet)

GL...

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

 

[newmeat]

May bet the SAC/LAL 1Q over and the reasons become self-evident when you look at the 1Q totals for these 2 teams this year, especially for SAC, who comes out of the gate fast..

Is there a good place to get qtr info?

 

[Vallon]

Is there a good place to get qtr info?

I use covers.com matchups. You usually can get about 10 previous games between the teams. Click on the scores and there's a breakdown of scores by quarters.

Jumped on this play last night, didn't get past 54.5 points until 40 seconds left, but it got there.

 

[brewers7]

Is there a good place to get qtr info?

I have a database with the 1Q info...

I will be posting the first 4 weeks of my database for this season on this forum in my Week 5 thread tomorrow or the day after...

I was busy yesterday, so I skipped the bet, and of course, easy winner...6 of the last 7 1Qs between those 2 teams went Over h2h, and 6 of the last 7 h2h at Staples all went Over in the 1Q, plus I believe SAC had 3 straight Overs in the 1Qs this season coming into the game...

Jumped on this play last night, didn't get past 54.5 points until 40 seconds left, but it got there.?

I watched that 1Q last night before falling asleep at half-time and that 1Q total was never in doubt though...Needed just 8 points with 3:22 left and despite a big dry-spell of missed shots all over the place for the next 2 minutes, there was enough FTs to get there...That 1Q Over was way easier than it looked in the final boxscore, even though the total did get to 59...

 

[newmeat]

I use covers.com matchups. You usually can get about 10 previous games between the teams. Click on the scores and there's a breakdown of scores by quarters.

Jumped on this play last night, didn't get past 54.5 points until 40 seconds left, but it got there.

Thanks Vallon. I cashed also on the 1Q.

I will be posting the first 4 weeks of my database for this season on this forum in my Week 5 thread tomorrow or the day after...

Good stuff Brewers. Appreciate the work.

 

[ZJP6050]

anything tonight brew

 

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 16-14, +$90
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 93-100-4
#1 picks: 15-12

Totals: 108-88-1
#1 picks: 11-16
=====================================

Day 28:

Running way late today and I am not going to bet when feeling rushed...Besides, not a lot jumping out at me today...If i had to make bets, I'd probably look at my top 2 totals (I don't like any sides today)...#3 total is a "chart-play" for sure...SA had 7 straight Unders, now an Over their last outing means chart-play to the Over for this game ...Ginobili back...Utah has 6 straight Overs...I watched parts of their last 2 games and it looked maniacal at times...Just non-stop running up and down the court...yet I look at both boxscores, and there were only about 150 shots and 45 FTs taken per game...Lots of turnovers...Lots of easy shots, so hight FG%'s for both games...Should be an Over here with CHI coming in...Bobcats a stone Und team all season (10-2 tothe Under in their 12 games)...

I'll try and post a link to my database for the first 4 weeks of the season i tomorrow's thread...


Sides:

#1 Char +3
#2 Orl -8.5
#3 Hou -3.5
#4 Memp +3
#5 Sac +11.5
#6 Utah -6.5
#7 LAC +5.5

Totals:

#1 Utah ov 202
#2 Char un 176
#3 Memp ov 181
#4 Hou ov 186.5
#5 Sac un 204.5
#6 Orl un 190
#7 LAC ov 186

NO BETS

GL...

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

 

[JackARoot]

Nice no-call B :toast:

Two one point misses on the top two totals hno: