NBA 2008-09, Week 2 thread...

[homedawg]

Brewers not to disagree with your Toronto selection at all, but why do you not think the Hawks can't keep up this great start they have? I for one think they are going to have an excellent year. My largest season win total bet i made was on Atlanta over 35.5 games. I think they have the talent to win consistently in the East. Joe Johnson is emerging as one of the better players in the conference, Josh Smith is elevating himself to perennial all-start status, Bibby is an exeperienced playoff tested point guard, Al Horford rookie of the year with huge potential, Marvin Williams an extremely talented former #1 draft pick who seems to be coming into his own, and some solid, serviceable NBA bench players. Offense was never a problem with Atlanta, but this season they looked to be locked in on the defensive end. If they can play defense at this level, or even close to it we could be looking at a top 5-6 seed in the Eastern Conference. Just my thoughts.

BOL on the card. As always your info is appreciated.

 

[SaltyVeteran]

Good Luck Brewers. Like the Clippers selection..

 

[gabbana]

Brewers not to disagree with your Toronto selection at all, but why do you not think the Hawks can't keep up this great start they have? I for one think they are going to have an excellent year. My largest season win total bet i made was on Atlanta over 35.5 games. I think they have the talent to win consistently in the East. Joe Johnson is emerging as one of the better players in the conference, Josh Smith is elevating himself to perennial all-start status, Bibby is an exeperienced playoff tested point guard, Al Horford rookie of the year with huge potential, Marvin Williams an extremely talented former #1 draft pick who seems to be coming into his own, and some solid, serviceable NBA bench players. Offense was never a problem with Atlanta, but this season they looked to be locked in on the defensive end. If they can play defense at this level, or even close to it we could be looking at a top 5-6 seed in the Eastern Conference. Just my thoughts.

BOL on the card. As always your info is appreciated.

same thought here ...i doubt atlanta is weaker at home then on the road, this is a home game i know the raptors are good it will be close but im staying away ..might take a look at over but idk..bol brew.

 

[indiana]

Brewers............

thank you for the plays........ here's where you start your run


indy

 

[Ruffneck]

Your writeups are definetly worth the time to read! Thank for the info.
Good luck tonight!

 

[brewers7]

Thanx guys...

Brewers not to disagree with your Toronto selection at all, but why do you not think the Hawks can't keep up this great start they have? I for one think they are going to have an excellent year. My largest season win total bet i made was on Atlanta over 35.5 games. I think they have the talent to win consistently in the East. Joe Johnson is emerging as one of the better players in the conference, Josh Smith is elevating himself to perennial all-start status, Bibby is an exeperienced playoff tested point guard, Al Horford rookie of the year with huge potential, Marvin Williams an extremely talented former #1 draft pick who seems to be coming into his own, and some solid, serviceable NBA bench players. Offense was never a problem with Atlanta, but this season they looked to be locked in on the defensive end. If they can play defense at this level, or even close to it we could be looking at a top 5-6 seed in the Eastern Conference. Just my thoughts.

BOL on the card. As always your info is appreciated.

Thanx...

I didn't say they cannot keep up this great start...Of course they can win tonight, beat OKC and CHI their next 2 games and be 6-0 going into the BOS game...No doubt about it...

To me this game tonight is a situational spot that is an offshoot of one of the Handicapping 101 rules that I have that states:

"You always take a good team in a bounce-back spot off a loss against a bad team in a let-down spot off a win"...

Now I don't consider ATL a "bad" team, but will they finish over .500 this season?...Maybe...Iffy at best...But I do consider Toronto a good team...Raps off their 1st loss of the season are in bounce-back mode and ATL clearly is coming off a HUGE win at New Orleans and it is just the nature of sports, all sports, that after a big win like that will follow a let-down spot...ATL is not BOS, so I have to go against them here...

I my be dead wrong tonight and lose the bet, no doubt...But I have seen this spot hundreds if not thousands of time in the NBA over the years and I have seen it in the other 3 professional sports and you may think this is hogwash to cite this as an example, but even in the semi-pro baseball league that I have been a part of for 20+ years, I have seen countless examples of it...I remember a powerhouse team I ran for a few years having an off-year and it came down to the final week to clinch a playoff spot and we beat the best team in the league to put our magic number at 1 and then the next time out we lost to the worst team in the league with my dominant ace on the mound...We had just come off an emotional win and let-down the next time out even though it was an important game...We clinched the next game, but that let-down spot is just an occurrence that cannot be ignored in all sports so that is why my money goes on Toronto tonight...

Does this guarantee a win for me?...

Hail no, but I like betting these spots...

GL to ya, homedawg, I always appreciate your input and BOL to you, sir...

 

[United]

Thanks for taking the time to post your info and thoughts:toast:

Good luck

 

[brewers7]

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 4-6, -$650
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 41-36-1
#1 picks: 7-4

Totals: 40-38
#1 picks: 1-10
=====================================

Day 12:

I might be a good fade for the next 2 or 3 weeks...My pride-and-joy, my #1 sides are 7-4, so perhaps I should just be betting those...My #1 totals have now lost 9 straight, hich must be close a record for me...I have tracked these but don't know of the top of my head what my worst streak is for #1 totals...I know I lost 10 in a row on the #1 sides once in the last 17 years, and it was last year, when I had severely limited capping time...My best win streak was 11, in 1996-97, I believe...

I am not capping badly, as I have winning records for both sides and totals for ALL picks and went 8-5 in both categories last night, a card I liked...I told a friend yesterday afternoon that I should bet every side & total and I'd probably have a good day, and well, 16-10 is better than the 0-2...problem is it would be such a departure for me to bet every side and total on a 13-game board, that it would just feel too weird to do it, even though it may be a good idea when I see a board like yesterday...

Only real problem I am having right now is getting the winners to the top of the list (in the #1, 2 & 3 picks range, instead of 7, 8 or 9)...Yesterday a good example as I bet my top 2 sides and went 0-2, while going 8-3 with all the other sides...My #2 and #3 totals were easy winners, while my #1 was a stone loser, and I took the Over at the #1 pick even knowing that CHI was one of the top teams defensively in FG% allowed this season...Not making smart enough decisions with my bets and top totals...

My #1 sides have always been pretty solid historically...My #1 totals have been solid the last 4 years, but very flaky and bad at times in previous years...There is no way I will be having Level 2 or 3 bets any time soon until I get the picks at the top of the list and bets straightened out...But I may hover around 50% for a few weeks and may not get hot until around Week 6 if history is any indicator here...Time will tell...Be very careful when contemplating bets on my plays right now...I am only betting 2.5% of my bankroll right now and am in no danger whatsoever of losing that BR, but it's important to keep the bet level low until further notice...

Some quick MISC stuff:

ORL has covered 7 straight 1Q lines vs. WAS...
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
NJ has covered 8 straight 1H lines and 7 of 8 1Q lines vs. Indy and 17 of the last 20 Over the total h2h...NJ has covered 7 of last 9...
<o></o>
NO covered 6 straight and 10-of-13 vs. MIA and 6-of-last-7 have gone Over h2h...
<o></o>
PORT 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS last 10 vs. Minny…6 of last 7 Over after 8 unders h2h…PORT has covered 6 straight...


Sides:

#1 Phoe -5.5
#2 Chi +2
#3 NJ +8
#4 NO -11
#5 Orl -9.5
#6 Port -8

Totals

#1 Port ov 191
#2 Phoe ov 197.5
#3 NO un 191.5
#4 NJ ov 199
#5 Chi un 189
#6 Orl un 198.5

Bet:

Level 1 -- Phoenix Suns -5.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- The first game of the season with my favorite trend, the 4-games-in-5-days-trend, so this is an automatic play on the visiting team and since I am in no mood to overthink when I am struggling, i will just make the automatic play and bet it...I won't bet these blindly, as these 4-of-5's can be very streaky, too...SHAQ didn't play last night (rested for tonight) and the PHOE startrs did not play extended minutes...Still no Redd...Milwaukee may be at Home, but had to travel farther than PHOE and they may have exerted more energy keeping that Celtics game close last night than PHOE did getting hammered at CHI...I don't see MILW winning this game, so since PHOE has good FT shooters, even if the game is very close at the end, if MILW fouls them in the waning seconds, PHOE should get over that number by hitting their FTs, but in all honesty, I hope this is a double-digit win for the Suns and I don't have to sweat too much...

=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

<!-- / message -->

 

[SaltyVeteran]

Good Luck Brew

 

[mr.handicapper]

GL brewers

 

[Miz]

Great Thoughts Brew. Good luck tonight!

 

[brewers7]

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 5-6, -$400
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 43-39-2
#1 picks: 8-4

Totals: 43-41
#1 picks: 1-11
=====================================

Day 13:

I like my top 5 Sides tonight...I track how many times I win at least 4 of my top 5 NBA sides (because in my early days, I would play 5-team round-robins with my top 5 sides...I have yet to hit 4 out of 5...Was 3-1-1 one day...But for whatever reason, I like those the card today and my top 5, but the problem is I like them so much, it is difficult for me to differentiate one clear-cut pick above the other 4...So with the slow start, I will NOT bet any of them, instead of betting all 5...I may regret this decision...I'll know at night's end...

#1 totals now at 10 straight losses, which may be a personal high...Last night the PORT over missed by a point...I know I said I am not touching my totals with a bet until the tide turns, but it's going to be hard for me not to bet this GS/Sac Over in some fashion...I am "due" to win one right?...Well, before you employ a martingale strategy starting tonight on my #1 totals, I'll have to relay a true story to keep you from doing it...I have always been good at MLB totals...But about 5 or 6 years back, I lost my #1 MLB total on opening day, won it on Day 2, and then proceeded to lose 19 straight #1 totals in a row...19...I couldn't do that if I tried...Thank goodness that didn't happen earlier in my betting career because I may have lost everything, but in that instance, I actually did wait for the streak to end (and it helped to have the end of the NBA season and playoffs starting up and the NHL playoffs going to keep me away from betting at any point during THAT disaster...

Just a note on the ATL game...OKC (as Seattle) had won 8 straight vs. ATL and covered all 8 and covered all 8 1H lines until the Hawks beat them last January 25 at Seattle to end all 3 of those streaks...Even with h2h match-ups like this where rosters change yearly and arenas change, for whatever reason, when streaks like that end, they generally immediately reverse themselves the other way...

Also, if the Iverson trade had not happened, I would have been all over Detroit and they would have been a #1 side...It's that revenge spot again where Detroit is playing the team that eliminated them from the postseason last season (Boston) for the first time this season...That situational spot already 3-0 ATS this season (don't think I missed any)...But the Iverson trade throws a monkey wrench into things a bit because now the Pistons are making adjustments after that trade which may slow them down a bit for this big game...

I should have a bet later...Unless I chicken out...

Sides:

#1 Atl -5
#2 Det -2
#3 Sac -4
#4 Hou +7.5
#5 Tor -3
#6 Den -8
#7 NY +4
#8 Dal -4

Totals

#1 Sac ov 215
#2 Det un 186.5
#3 NY ov 207
#4 Atl ov 183
#5 Tor un 183
#6 Hou un 187.5
#7 Den ov 199
#8 Dal un 185.5


=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

 

[brewers7]

Bet:

This bet is currently plus-juice at Pinny...

Level 1 -- Golden State/Sacramento over 54, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- The Kings have suddenly become a stone Over team the last 4 games and Golden State, well, it doesn't matter who is hurt, who got traded, they are going with their wild up-tempo style...The Warriors are just 1-2 to the over in the 1Q on the Road, but went Over at MEMP in the 1Q their last Road game (3 games ago) and have gone Over in the 1Q 3 straight games now and 4-of-6 this season...Only reason I am not betting the Over for the game is because if it is close, GS has a propensity to play low-scoring 4Q's on the Road, although SAC did not play a slow 4Q at Home their last time out...I already know the pace will be there for an Over in the 1Q, we just need the shots to fall...GS has averaged 24 shots and 6 FTs in the 1Q this year (26 shots and 4 FTs in the 1Q the last 3 games) and they played MEMP twice...SAC has averaged 23 shots and 5 FTs their 2 Home games in the 1Q and MEMP was one of those games... <!-- / message -->

 

[SaltyVeteran]

Wanted a piece of Detroit when I first saw it as well but I agree with your take about Iverson. Would be on it otherwise. Good Luck Today.

 

[aca]

A Nice shot! :aktion033

 

[Get-Money]

bump

 

[brewers7]

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 6-6, -$150
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 47-43-2
#1 picks: 8-5

Totals: 45-47
#1 picks: 1-12
=====================================

Day 14:

So tempted to bet Memphis tonight as PHOE is playing their first home game after a 4-of-5 road trip and this young MEMP team is playing fairly well to this point with a 3-4 record SU and a 4-3 ATS record...Their 3 ATS losses were by extremely narrow margins, losing by 10 last night at Denver (getting 8.5), losing by 10 at CHI (getting 8) and losing by 5 at SAC (while getting 3), and SAC has blown out their other 2 home opponents...PHOE killed MEMP at home last year by 21 and they won both games at MEMP by 14...Different teams this year...

#1 totals for me almost laughable right now...I can shake my head at it without worrying about it only because I am not betting them...Helps to have 1Q and 1H bet options...I watch a lot of GS games and the color announcer made a great point a few games ago when he said this GS team is very young and will struggle shooting in opponents' arenas...Also being young, the energy of the Oracle Arena crowd helps them for their home games...This is why I took the Over in the 1Q at SAC yesterday...There is a website that has 1Q, 2Q, 3Q & 4Q breakdowns for shots and FTs made and taken per Quarter and I can see the pace of games and I track the results of ATS and Over/under in every quarter in my database, so I knew the GS/SAC over was pretty much a gimme and it would have been a Level 2 bet had I been handicapping better...They got 69 points in the 1Q for an easy win...

This is a new personal high losing streak for #1 totals...But I think it is a good thing, though...It shows the importance of tracking your own picks...People don't believe they can lose a lot of plays in a row...I have been tracking my plays for many, many years and it can be humbling to see all of the losing streaks over the years, but it is important to see those streaks to ward off any feelings of invincibility in regards to my top plays...When this #1 totals streak ends (if it ends) I should have an immediate win streak of 3 or 4 games (or hopefully more) afterwards...I am waiting for the streak to end before betting a total, although I could still bet a 1Q or 1H total if I see one...

I was 3-3 Week 1 and unless I see a 2H bet worthwhile, I'll be 3-3 for Week 2...Need to bet with MatchBook to eliminate this juice and hopefully and get on a winning streak...I like my Top 3 sides tonight, but I liked my Top 5 sides last night and went 2-3...I am exercising caution until I feel I am on the verge of breaking out...


Sides:

#1 Memp +11.5
#2 Tor +8.5
#3 Orl -7
#4 OKC +11
#5 NJ +9

Totals

#1 OKC ov 196.5
#2 NJ un 187.5
#3 Tor un 183
#4 Orl un 191.5
#5 Memp un 196.5

NO BETS

=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

<!-- / message -->