NBA 2008-09, Week 2 thread...

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Can you explain whats the difference with pinnacle and other books? Is there no juice or reduced or something? Why arent you still using it?
 

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Can you explain whats the difference with pinnacle and other books? Is there no juice or reduced or something? Why arent you still using it?

Not available to residents of the U.S.A., thank you very much George Bush and Congress from the last week of DEC, 2006...

I get my lines there for my database, and when I bet the Knicks game at Olympic at 204.5, of course they have standard -110 juice and at the same exact time I bet it at Olympic, it was +100 juice at Pinnacle...

I would have lost $250 instead of $275...

Plus, you can "sell" points there, so I probabl would have "sold" half-a-point and made the total 205 and got, what, +104 or +105 juice and then if I had won, I would have won more than my bet...

Huge advantage to get reduced juice or no juice or positive juice...

HUGE advantage over the course of a long NBA season...
 

F me, F U
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Brew, great to see u posting!! Hope baseball is going well. Slow time of year I'm sure. Just finished fall ball down here couple weeks back w/ another state championship at 8s. Solid group but it's a marathon. Already running tryouts this weekend for Spring!!

I'll pop in knowing u are posting here.
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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Thanks again for the consistent read.

Couple of hindsight notes for you to file in hopes they help in coming weeks.

1) Phoenix past two seasons playing Away vs teams who finish in bottom half of the league has seen 34 of 46 games where they scored Over 103 (applied to Ind Wed) and 33 of 46 Over 105 (applied to NJ Tuesday)

At this point in season, requires a bit of presumption for some opponents as to whether they will finish in bottom half. (Chicago on Thursday). Likely most useful in games vs East where listed Totals allow for Phoenix TT to stay at 105 or less.

====
2) Sacramento playing Home After Away is 14-3 SU since beginning of last season and 12-5 ats at -2

Sac at Home versus teams from bottom half of league is 14-5 since beginning of last season and 13-6 at -2

Memphis playing Away After Home is 5-19 since beginning of last season and 6-18 ats at +2

====

Best to us all for continued sharing of good info and increased success in return for disciplined play.

Steve
 

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Thanx for the info, barman & BOL to you, sir...

Brew, great to see u posting!! Hope baseball is going well. Slow time of year I'm sure. Just finished fall ball down here couple weeks back w/ another state championship at 8s. Solid group but it's a marathon. Already running tryouts this weekend for Spring!!

I'll pop in knowing u are posting here.

Congrats on another state championship...We just acquired an 11u team that is 1st in our state and in the top 25 in the country...It's slow, but a lot busier than last year now that we've been open for just over a year...Good to see you...

-----------------------------------------------------

Ok, tough beat with the long drought during the last 6 minutes of the Knicks game last night, but that's the NBA, you expect tough losses and move on to the next day...

PHI at ORL -- 10 of the last 14 have gone Over h2h...Philly has been outscored in 3 of 4 quarters in both of their Road games, and outscored badly at that...ORL has won 5 of the last 6 SU (3-3 ATS) and 12 of the last 17 SU (7-9-1 ATS) h2h...Philly lost and did not cover their only back-ender this year and it was on the Road at Atlanta, blowing a 23-point lead...Philly had 26 turnovers last night, which may be close enough to a general rule I have where you take a good team off a 30+ turnover game the next time out...Philly Under is 4-1 this year and ORL is 3-1 to the Under...Philly's back-ender at ATL was an Under...

HOU at PORT -- Houston has won 5 straight and covered 3 straight h2h, and the Rockets have won 15 of 18 SU in this h2h match-up, but are just 10-8 ATS in those games...The Under is 7-2 and 10-4 over the last 9 & 14 games, althogh the previous 4 went Over...Portland's only back-ender this season was an Over and they have gone Over 3 straight...PORT much-improved at Home and they beat SA in their only Home game this season...

Teams with rest playing teams on back-enders are 6-10 ATS this season, but most of those ATS losses were by "bad" teams or teams with .500 or losing records so far this season...In fact, 9 of those 10 ATS losses were by .500 teams or worse, with the Lakers the only winning team Not to cover in that spot, but they had an over-inflated 8-point line to cover at DEN and they almost did cover it anyway, winning by 7...ORL is a .500 team and HOU is 3-1 with this situation tonight...

If you look at the Hou/Port total, currently at 184.5, if you go back over several seasons between these 2 teams h2h, you will see this:

23 of their last 30 games have had totals Under that 184.5...There were also two 186's and a 185...20 of the last 30 have gone Under the vegas number h2h here...

Not much really sticking out here as far as a bet goes, so I may pass and look at the 13-game card for FRI...
 
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Hey Brewer, any luck getting on with matchbook? My credit card company blocked my deposit with them, so I authorized a wire last Thursday, but it hasn't went through yet (their accounting dept says it takes 10-15 days).
 

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Hey Brewer, any luck getting on with matchbook? My credit card company blocked my deposit with them, so I authorized a wire last Thursday, but it hasn't went through yet (their accounting dept says it takes 10-15 days).

Did a SportsBook to SportsBook transfer from Olympic and then another from 5dimes...They have a list of Books you can do that from...Much easier and no fees...Credit cards are a waste any more as Banks will block almost all transfers to Sportsbooks...

Still using the sportsbooks until I get more comfortable with MatchBook...
 

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Im new and i've been following you and a few others this year and i have no complaints, Thank you very much for your help. Im just wondering what h2h means?
 

Maniiliq
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How much of a balance it too much of a balance to have in MatchBook ? How safe is it ?

thanks
 

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Im new and i've been following you and a few others this year and i have no complaints, Thank you very much for your help. Im just wondering what h2h means?

h2h = head-to-head



How much of a balance it too much of a balance to have in MatchBook ? How safe is it ?

thanks ?

It's an A or A+ Book, you can look them up online on the SBR site...I have had over 20K in one book or another at different times in past years before Congress passed that legislation (then I pulled almost every dollar out), but I only deal with A Books, so I know it's safe with them...If you deal with C-, D or F Books, you're money is not safe, IMO...Go to the SBR site and look at the reviews, recommendations and grades...


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Did a SportsBook to SportsBook transfer from Olympic and then another from 5dimes...They have a list of Books you can do that from...Much easier and no fees...Credit cards are a waste any more as Banks will block almost all transfers to Sportsbooks...

Still using the sportsbooks until I get more comfortable with MatchBook...

Yeah, I was with BetUS and they don't support the transfer (surprise, surprise) I cashed out with them because I'm fed-up with their taylored lines and other bs. Hopefully, you'll be hitting your stride about the time I'm funded with matchbook :toast:
 

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Thanx...Nothing is guaranteed, of course...

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 4-4, -$100
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 32-30-1
#1 picks: 6-3

Totals: 31-32
#1 picks: 1-8
=====================================

Day 10:

Random Thoughts already posted...I am passing today on bets...#1 Totals a debacle right now...I should stick with #1 sides till further notice...

Sides:

#1 Port +5
#2 Phi +5

Totals

#1 Port un 183.5
#2 Phi un 193.5

NO BETS

=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot... Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================
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Thanks for posting your information despite you not playing. I'm jumping on the Hou/Port under. I believe in your #1 Total to bounce back tonight.
 

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Thanks for posting your information despite you not playing. I'm jumping on the Hou/Port under. I believe in your #1 Total to bounce back tonight.

Wow...You are either brave, insane or playing the odds, I am not sure which, but GL to you Heavy, I hope you hit it...
 

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RANDOM THOUGHTS on Friday's card:

NO at CHAR – These 2 teams have met 8 times and NO has won 6 of them SU and 7 of them ATS…Looks like a lot of points to me, but then again all 6 of the Hornets wins in this h2h series have been by at least 9 points…<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
NY at WAS – All 3 games last year h2h went Over, but one was OT-aided…I may be stubborn here, but this game looks like an Over …Knicks have covered 4 of the last 5 h2h…WAS looking for their first win of the season…Knicks looked bad at Philly, their only Road game…Of course, WAS didn’t look good at all vs. NJ, their only home game…<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
DET at NJ – Iverson’s debut with DET…DET 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS against NJ the last 12 h2h…4 Overs and a push the last 5 h2h…DET 4-0 to the Over this year while NJ is 3-0 to the Under, although their last game should have been an Over against PHOE…Possible look-ahead for DET as they have Boston next…<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
IND at CLE – The Cavs have had a convenient schedule to this point as they have a day off after each game…They are 4-1 ATS…CLE is 10-1 SU and 8-1-2 ATS the last 11 vs. Indy h2h…These 2 have been streaky with their totals the last 20…6 Overs, then 6 Unders, a push and an Under, then 4 Overs and the last 2 have gone Under…<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
TOR at ATL – The Hawks a surprising, if not shocking 3-0 record to start the season and they are 3-0 ATS and 3-0 to the Under…TOR has won and covered 4 of the last 5 vs. ATL, but lost their last game at ATL…TOR is 6-0 ATS the last six 1H lines vs. ATL…4 of the last 5 and 13 of the last 15 have gone Over h2h…<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
MIA at SA – Lowest spread between these 2 at SA since 1996…24 of the last 30 h2h have gone Under including 3 straight and 16 of the last 18…SA has won 10 straight h2h at SA, going 8-2 ATS…SA 0-4 ATS on the season, while MIA is 0-2 SU & ATS this season on the Road…<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
PHOE at CHI – Suns should be 5-0 to the Over this season (ridiculously low 4Q at NJ got a miracle Under there)…Suns also 4-1 SU & ATS on the season…PHOE 8-2 SU & ATS the last 10 vs. CHI…4 of the last 6 Over h2h…I am not worried about the side here as the Over looks like the play as CHI has played mostly Under opponents so far and still have 2 Overs in 5 games…<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
OKC at UTA – Jazz swept OKC last year, although the Thunder covered 2 and have actually covered 8 of the last 11 h2h…All 4 games last year went Under h2h…OKC 4-0 to the Under this season and Utah 3-1 to the Under…No Deron Williams again (doubtful)…Utah 4-0 on the season and they have covered 3 in a row…<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
MIN at SAC – All 3 games went Over last year h2h…Early revenge spot for Minny, who won at home vs. Sac 9 days ago and it was an Under…Brad Miller is back for SAC…<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
DAL at DEN – Mavs have won 9 of 13 h2h but DEN has won 3 of last 4 h2h…11 of the last 16 h2h have gone Under, but 2 of 3 last year went Over…DAL has had 3 straight Unders, going Under the Vegas line by an average of 14 PPG…How do Billups and McDyess fit into the Denver equation?...Does Denver slow it down now?...Doubt it, but their defense could improve some more in terms of points allowed per possession…<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
MEMP at GS – Warriors a revenge spot here as they already lost to MEMP at MEMP 90-79 four days ago…The game was 31 points Under the Vegas number, but the pace was certainly quick, with 174 shots and 35 FTs…While MEMP shot ok at 46.2%, GS only shot 34.4%...Maggette is expected to miss and Harrington wants out of GS as he is demanding a trade and has been a problem all season, feuding with Nellie…He only played 16 minutes last game and only scored 3 points…He may not play Friday…MEMP had 4 straight Unders before going Over at SAC last time out (barely), but it took 106 points in the 2H to get Over the total…GS had won 7 straight h2h before the loss 4 days ago and 4 straight and 5 of the last 6 h2h have gone Under…<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
HOU at LAC – No line posted…Rockets have won 17 of 20 SU and are 13-7 ATS h2h vs. Clips…HOU 9-1 SU and ATS last 10 at LAC…Clippers 0-5 on the season SU & ATS, and are 4-1 to the Under (in regulation – 1 over was OT-aided)…Gotta think the Clips have the motivational edge here…They did last time out vs. the Lakers, but LAL wore them down and took over in the 4Q (Clips led at the half)…So is a 1H bet on the Clips applicable here?...Clips have covered 4 straight 1H lines, despite being 0-5 SU and ATS…HOU has the Lakers up next…<o:p></o:p>
 

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
Joined
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=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 4-4, -$100
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 33-31-1
#1 picks: 7-3

Totals: 32-33
#1 picks: 1-9
=====================================

Day 11:

Random Thoughts already posted...Overtime cost the Port Under yesterday, thank god there was no bet...NBA #1 Sides have always been my pride and joy and they have weathered this early storm and are 7-3 and obviously I should be betting those...#1 Totals have lost 8 straight and totals are either on ON or OFF and most years, #1 totals don't kick in until mid-December, although in recent years they have been fast out of the gate...Uh, NOT this year...I like my top 3 totals a lot tonight, but I simply cannot bet them due to the horrible start my totals have had...

Sides:

#1 LAC +6
#2 Tor +3
#3 Chi +4.5
#4 OKC +11
#5 Memp +7
#6 NJ +7.5
#7 Was -5.5
#8 Char +7.5
#9 SA -6
#10 Milw +13.5
#11 Sac -4
#12 Dal +1
#13 Ind +8.5

Totals

#1 Chi ov 204.5
#2 Was ov 210
#3 Memp ov 195
#4 Tor un 185.5
#5 OKC un 185.5
#6 Sac ov 199
#7 Dal ov 206
#8 Ind ov 193.5
#9 NJ ov 190
#10 Char un 186
#11 SA un 189.5
#12 LAC ov 181.5
#13 Milw un 183

Bets:

Level 1 -- Toronto Raptors +3, $275 to win $250 -- Taking the better team here...Atlanta is red-hot out of the gate...We all know it won't last...But admittedly, the hardest thing to do when you are looking at a hot team is trying to figure out WHEN they re going to lose...Generally I will let the hot streak end and then go against them, but ATL has only played 3 games, so it's not like they are 6-0 and counting, where I would definitely let the streak ride out and then go against them as soon s they lose...Raptors coming off their first loss of the season and I look for them to bounce back while I look for a slight let-down out of the Hawks, who played way above their heads, IMO, at New Orleans to beat the Hornets last time out...

Level 1 -- Los Angeles Clippers +6, laying $275 to win $250 -- This is a bit risky for me only because LAC is on a NC5 to start the season (and are 0-5 SU) and I generally let these streaks end before I bet them because sometimes these streaks will get up to as high as 8 to start the season ATS-wise...But I like Baron Davis...He didn't go to the Clips to lose...He wants to win, make no mistake about it...Sure, it's taking some time to have Camby and Davis fit in here, but the Clips have Covered 4 straight 1H lines before falling apart in the 2H all 4 of those games...It is just a matter of focus and playing 48 minutes and I am sure Coach Dunleavy hammered that home at practice yesterday...Getting 6 at Home against a team who played a tough OT loss last night is a bonus, IMO, as 3 Houston starters played heavy minutes in that tough loss...

=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot... Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================
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New member
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot... Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…





some of the best advice one can give anyone...bol on ur season brew
 

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