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MJ is right in that historically the debt/GDP isn't all that bad although its projected to get really bad going forward

and near term its gonna have some major issues as soon GDP will be negative due the looming depression while tax inflow plummets and government spending skyrockets

that said the bigger problem honestly is who owns the debt

in the past when we had debt/GDP rates sky to 100%+ to fund wars we americans bought bonds and funded our government debt so our savings were being invested in our country

this time is very different in that on the consumer side our savings rate is very very poor and we are in up to our neck in debt just like the government and guys like china and japan hold a bulk of our debt
 

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MJ is right in that historically the debt/GDP isn't all that bad although its projected to get really bad going forward

and near term its gonna have some major issues as soon GDP will be negative due the looming depression while tax inflow plummets and government spending skyrockets

that said the bigger problem honestly is who owns the debt

in the past when we had debt/GDP rates sky to 100%+ to fund wars we americans bought bonds and funded our government debt so our savings were being invested in our country

this time is very different in that on the consumer side our savings rate is very very poor and we are in up to our neck in debt just like the government and guys like china and japan hold a bulk of our debt

Thanks for some sanity regarding debt to GDP...it's a hard issue for people to understand. But if you don't understand it ...you aren't in the debate.
(See Fletch's post for a perfect illustration) :missingte

But the idea that foreigners hold the majority of our debt is another canard put out by our lefty media.

It's just not true...not even close.

piechart200706.png
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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also places like japan have like a 2/1 debt/GDP after their decade of deflation fighting throwing gobs of "stimulus" packages out there like the US is ready to do but on the consumer side their citizens are very frugal and save a ton

so chances are japanese are gonna keep paying taxes over the long term and it'll get paid off over time and some of it carries forward as they grow over the long haul

think of the US like a corporation

if it is leveraged 10 to 1 debt to equity like an investment bank than okay i'd be worried about it going tits up and defaulting on its debt :)

but having a debt/marketcap (GDP) in the 50-100% range doesn't mean its going to go tits up anytime soon

look around the stock market right now a ton of companies have 50%+ debt/market cap ratios

the biggest problem in this whole thing is american's don't save anymore....no country can survive without its citizens saving....but i think that trend is slowly starting to change.....which was long overdue....with the depression looming.....
 

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and MJ y i think i'm wrong on "majority" of debt but historically i think its pretty bad

the problem is american's savings rate has plumeted to near 0% since the early 1990s....and over the years way to much of it was programmed by the media to invest a large percent of your savings into corporate equities and not be diversified.....although recently like i say with the depression looming savings starting to perk up and with the stock market carnage and fact that markets are flat since the 1990s now i think people waking up to the scam of the man as far as equities go......

long term saving more is necessary.....short term its gonna create more hurt as our economic capacity/job market is dependent on american's continuing to spend beyond their means and this is happening at a time when people losing jobs left and right so those keeping their jobs are retracting feeding on itself....our time has run out
 

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Everything i have ever said on here about Debt has been over the last 25-40 years.... Because....

Its trending to insurmountable astronomical numbers!!!!!

Look at what i told you and point out where im wrong. Please do so, instead of just saying rubbish about not knowing what im talking about, because we both know that isnt the case at all. When did i ever say historically it was bad? I didnt, because im talking about the last quarter century. :ohno:

:cripwalk:
 

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GDP has been too

from like 60s to 2000 stock market and GDP have ramped big time

longer term obviously its an issue no doubt

as the GDP growth days are over for now and spending is gonna keep on a ramping

as usual tiz stuck in the middle of arguments on this forum between the MJ and the fletch both sides have a point :)
 

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Everything i have ever said on here about Debt has been over the last 25-40 years.... Because....

Its trending to insurmountable astronomical numbers!!!!!

Look at what i told you and point out where im wrong. Please do so, instead of just saying rubbish about not knowing what im talking about, because we both know that isnt the case at all. When did i ever say historically it was bad? I didnt, because im talking about the last quarter century. :ohno:

:cripwalk:

Fletch...you obsess about a number...and never provide context.

Thats what car salesmen do. :lol:

You are full of shit...the debt isn't astronomical...and its much less than past highs...and its still much less than most of the Western world.

I think 60% of GDP is probably optimal...we are now around 70%...a little bit high.

But not a disaster by any means.

Enough already. Crying about astronomical numbers is just plain stupid...if you don't consider the astronomical economy we have to pay for it.
 

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debt_burden_history_20050204_1.gif


Astronomical Fletch?

Not even close...by historical standards or western economic standards...or ...any standard...other than some loony Gold Bug standard. :missingte
 

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Did we have a trillion dollar trade deficit at any point in that graph? :nohead:

And does inflation impact GDP? :lolBIG:

When in that graph did we bail out entire sectors? :lol:


Key word MJ....

TRENDING
 

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Did we have a trillion dollar trade deficit at any point in that graph? :nohead:

And does inflation impact GDP? :lolBIG:

When in that graph did we bail out entire sectors? :lol:


Key word MJ....

TRENDING

Sorry Fletch...but you just keep trotting out the same old tired arguments with no context...and keep moving the goalposts.

Now it's about "trending"? :lolBIG:

Extrapolating a trend into the future is a sure sign of a scheister.

In the 90's we would all be trillionaires by now if we had extrapolated the trend of our investment returns into the future. Oops...doesn't work that way.

Same for Global warming.

Same for the doom and gloom of the Population Bomb nuts in the 70's.

Same as the Peak Oil nuts for the last 50 years.

Extrapolating trends into infinity is great for a Top Selling Doom and Gloom Book.

But it doesn't prove your point one bit. In fact it shows you have drunk the Kool aid.

Probably a Gold Bug Book would be my guess...you repeat all their nutty stuff over and over. :ohno:
 

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MJ, read my posts....because if you did trending is what i have always said. Its not something i just came up with now. Look at Debt to GDP ratio and how fast its climbing. The pace isnt slowing....its RISING! Im still waiting for you to answer my questions above. And i would like to hear more about Exponential growth AKA grow or die. Because recessions cant be good for this ideology, right? I mean with this logic, you cant afford to let the "kooky" market work itself out. Even though its a purging, its self cleansing, no, you want bailouts and even more spending....because Debt doesnt matter, trends arent real. Does that sum it up for you?

:nohead:

The 90's? during the Tech/Dont com bubble? More fake wealth. LOL.

And for the record, i dont care what you tie the dollar to, just tie it to something... you little Lib.
 

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MJ, read my posts....because if you did trending is what i have always said. Its not something i just came up with now. Look at Debt to GDP ratio and how fast its climbing. The pace isnt slowing....its RISING! Im still waiting for you to answer my questions above. And i would like to hear more about Exponential growth AKA grow or die. Because recessions cant be good for this ideology, right? I mean with this logic, you cant afford to let the "kooky" market work itself out. Even though its a purging, its self cleansing, no, you want bailouts and even more spending....because Debt doesnt matter, trends arent real. Does that sum it up for you?

:nohead:

The 90's? during the Tech/Dont com bubble? More fake wealth. LOL.

And for the record, i dont care what you tie the dollar to, just tie it to something... you little Lib.

Fletch...it never ends with you.

Who said anything about exponential growth? :lolBIG:

All you need is slow steady growth...over time...just like the last 200 years.

Thats why we haven't paid off the debt since 1837...and there is no need to...there is a trend for you. But you ignore that trend.

You just don't get it Fletch...I can't help you.

Rant all you want...it's not going to change. And it doesn't have to.

We've been doing it for almost 200 years now...the debt has been much worse in the past than it is now.

The numbers are relative...they aren't absolute.
 

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Fletch...it never ends with you.

Who said anything about exponential growth? :lolBIG:

All you need is slow steady growth...over time...just like the last 200 years.

Thats why we haven't paid off the debt since 1837...and there is no need to...there is a trend for you. But you ignore that trend.

You just don't get it Fletch...I can't help you.

Rant all you want...it's not going to change. And it doesn't have to.

We've been doing it for almost 200 years now...the debt has been much worse in the past than it is now.

The numbers are relative...they aren't absolute.

:missingte

"Grow or die" is obviously exponential, think about what your saying. :ohno:


*sigh* here we go again, open your ears this time.....

At the very minimum the interest payment on the debt must be paid as stated in the Constitution of the United States.

In 1988, this is what the interest payment on the national Debt was:

$214,145,028,847.73

(thats 214 Billion MJ, i know you have trouble with big numbers)

This is the payment in 2008
$451,154,049,950.63


inflation.gif



Now, what happened in this time to make it more then double? Actually, during this stretch you actually had 4 balanced budgets (thus surpluses) for the first time in 39 years. So in many ways since 1980, 1988 - 2001 was pretty tame. Does this sound like im sandbagging for Clinton, maybe but facts are facts. Now the question becomes....

Are we doing now something more efficient or better then then before? Or are we doing things worse or much worse? Spending at all time highs, deficits at all time highs, trade deficits approaching a trillion annually and bailouts galore all say we are doing much worse, and not enough revenue to pay for it all.
Thus the debt is going to only TREND much much negative ahead. Twenty years form now, we could be paying the interest on the national debt of annual payments reaching 1 trillion. What do tax payers pay now? 1.5 trillion? So yhea, your right we dont need to pay off the debt, because like the debt the intrest doesnt matter either. Thank god your not running a business, i reckon you would be in line for a welfare bailout in no time with your thick headed logic. What do you expect from a meat packer :lol:



 

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Grow or die" is obviously exponential, think about what your saying. :ohno:

No it's not...growth doesn't have to be exponential...just slow and steady.

Just like the last 200 years or so. It's a trend Fletch. :lol:

Your charts are real pretty...except you forgot to include the other half of the balance sheet again.

Which proves you don't even understand the issue on a basic level.

The debt has been much higher in the past...we are only getting to the high range of what I am comfortable with.

It's not a disaster yet.

In fact the debt service was easier under Bush than Clinton's balanced budgets.

Economic growth and revenue are the half of the equation you refuse to acknowledge for some reason.

We'll have to assume you never applied for a loan.

They are just as interested in your income as they are your debt.

Duh...:nohead:
 

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No it's not...growth doesn't have to be exponential...just slow and steady.

Just like the last 200 years or so. It's a trend Fletch. :lol:

Your charts are real pretty...except you forgot to include the other half of the balance sheet again.

Which proves you don't even understand the issue on a basic level.

The debt has been much higher in the past...we are only getting to the high range of what I am comfortable with.

It's not a disaster yet.

In fact the debt service was easier under Bush than Clinton's balanced budgets.

Economic growth and revenue are the half of the equation you refuse to acknowledge for some reason.

We'll have to assume you never applied for a loan.

They are just as interested in your income as they are your debt.

Duh...


:missingte


Hey, i have three charts for you. All from the same period....notice any correlation? Concentrate from 1980 and beyond.


GDP_FDI_adjusted.png




inflation.gif




USMTotal.gif
 

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National debt is 11 trillion

Non-bank corporate debt $9 trillion

Mortgage debt $9 trillion

Financial institution debt $12 trillion

Unfunded Medicare liability $30 trillion

Social Security liability $12 trillion

Money supply off the charts.

Trade deficit is 1 trillion annually.

Consumption is over 70% of GDP.



If you cant create new loans, then the economey retracts, thus you need debt and people to take on more debt all the time to keep up with your slow constant growth. Trouble with that is... we dont have any more room to take on this debt (AKA we are BROKE).

* About 43% of American families spend more than they earn each year.

* Average households carry some $8,000 in credit card debt. Thats 167% more than the $3,000 average for households in 1990.

* Personal bankruptcies have doubled in the past decade.



Bottom line is, Americans got greedy and stupid...Wall street got greedy and the FED got shortsighted and was unwilling to allow the markets to purge themselves. Congress is short sided and refuses to be responsible caretakers of the coffers. All a giant cluster fuck, and your unwilling to see the forest from the trees even though we both know the truth.
 

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National debt is 11 trillion

Non-bank corporate debt $9 trillion

Mortgage debt $9 trillion

Financial institution debt $12 trillion

Unfunded Medicare liability $30 trillion

Social Security liability $12 trillion

Money supply off the charts.

Trade deficit is 1 trillion annually.

Consumption is over 70% of GDP.



If you cant create new loans, then the economey retracts, thus you need debt and people to take on more debt all the time to keep up with your slow constant growth. Trouble with that is... we dont have any more room to take on this debt (AKA we are BROKE).

* About 43% of American families spend more than they earn each year.

* Average households carry some $8,000 in credit card debt. Thats 167% more than the $3,000 average for households in 1990.

* Personal bankruptcies have doubled in the past decade.


Bottom line is, Americans got greedy and stupid...Wall street got greedy and the FED got shortsighted and was unwilling to allow the markets to purge themselves. Congress is short sided and refuses to be responsible caretakers of the coffers. All a giant cluster fuck, and your unwilling to see the forest from the trees even though we both know the truth.

It's been worse before...and we are still better off than most of the Western world. Probably a rough recession ahead of us no doubt...but those are normal...it's not the end of the world.

debt_burden_history_20050204_1.gif
 

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It's been worse before...and we are still better off than most of the Western world. Probably a rough recession ahead of us no doubt...but those are normal...it's not the end of the world.

debt_burden_history_20050204_1.gif


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Notice how this foreign investment in debt ramps up correlates perfectly with the three charts above? Those being <st1:stockticker>GDP</st1:stockticker>, money supply and National Debt. So, what’s the common denominator? The only answer and the root of it all…the money supply and the abuse of it. Thus all the wealth you have see wiped off the books on the Dow and what not are just that, gone. Not to someone or some company, just eroded away....because they were never real in the first place.



debt-foreign-share.gif



And for the record we are in a deep recession right now, regardless of what some phony <st1:stockticker>CPI</st1:stockticker> stats state. <st1:stockticker>CPI</st1:stockticker> is calculated in an absolute joking manner. Hell it doesn’t even include Taxation or food and energy prices. Last time i checked those affected my pocket book.
<o:p> </o:p>
Are we better off then the rest of the world? I would agree MJ, we probably are. But we are running on borrowed time. The world wont end, you are correct good sir, but the world as we know it will surly end, the world as we know it as Americans that is. The fast times are over. The jig is up.
 

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Sure...Reagan gave us a hell of a run since 1982 or so...it's a cycle.

Thats how these things work. After that big of a boom there is bound to be a bust.

But it's not unexpected or something different.

I hope it's not like the 70's and Carter...but Obama looks like a Carter II ...or worse unfortunately.
 

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