My best advice 95% of you won't take for this football season!

wantitall4moi · Aug 3, 2004

BTW Fezzick, here is a question.

Sea was 9 over +120 a couple weeks ago at Oly. Did you take them at that number? Now they are 9 over -185 and under +155. That is a 75 cent freebie thatthe won;t win exactly nine games.

So another question. Why not max bet on the over 8.5, then bet the under 9? Especially if you can find an over 8.5 (-170)that is lower than a 9 (-185). That is a simultaneous side. And since you are seemingly loading up on this "bad" number, you are getting a free shot at a winning number of 9.

Plus if they are a bust, as they have been the last few years you have a saver at nice odds.

You could take it even further than that and take them at Pin for a simultaneous 34 cent scalp. Even with a $1000 limit at Pin that is still a free 140 or 111 at 1000 on the under versus 1900 on the over. Or since you like the over, you lay 1000 on the under for about 115, and 1925 on the over @ -170 for 135. That is if you can get that much down on the over where they are -170.

Fezzik · Aug 3, 2004

It really doesn't matter what I do on Seattle.

I can stand pat with my big position, or I can wait and hedge some as the season approaches.

Bottom line, the true sharps knew this number was off for them. They didn't play like scared wanna be advantage player rabbits betting 1 unit on the over. Instead they bombed Sea over "back to the stone age" knowing that the buyback would be there if they wanted it, and equally importantly knowing that Sea should be lined at a level more like 9.5 games, and should be favored to win that division.

wantitall4moi · Aug 3, 2004

No offense, but where are they betting it huge? What books offer anything more than a grand on season win totals?

You guys always claim to take huge leads, but unless you bet it every time it moves for a grand where is this so called advatage?
Is that even a unit play for you big timers?

I mean you guys must all be betting 5 or 10 dinmes a game right? So how is it that a grand on a future is so huge?

And since we have seen how futures are handles at Pin I doubt they would be letting guys bet more than the posted limit even if they asked, and especially since all the "sharps" were betting it.

I know you have a rep and are pretty well respected, but some of what you say is pretty contradictary.

avssports · Aug 3, 2004

with so much parity in the NFL, i don't know how anyone can feel comfortable pounding a futures bet..it seems like teams just take turns making the playoffs..i wouldn't be surprise to see the Lions making some noise this year...