My best advice 95% of you won't take for this football season!

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> If I win a wager(s) and my account balance goes UP, then IT'S MY MONEY, and it should be treated with same care and respect as MY MONEY that I started the day/week/month with. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

amen big mistake that is often made...

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> if your with a local and settle up day is tuesday and your up $1000 going into MNF then most will bump their average play up and take a shot.. if your down a dime, some guys may set it out and not risk the dime to get out of the hole.. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

mith much respect I disagree that following the above type of practice is benefitial to the player... I know that many players will let their plays be affected by wether or not they will have to settle up with their local bookie or not, however, if you are disicplined & have your money managed correctly (IMO) 'settle up day' with your bookie should have ZERO impact on the play that you make...

 

[Journeyman]

when I made the post i noted 95% of bettors...its very very safe to say 95% of offshore wagerers are not pros....the reason i feel its essential to not up your plays from your season plan, very simple, you will get the 'fever' , you will not know when to cut back, atleast most won't...and at the end of the year many will look back and see they won more games then they lost and very likely will be down, if not O.U.T.

its very difficult to stay true to your plan , I see this almost everyday, I hear the sob stories on Im's or from friends...and I have dont the same dumb sh!t

 

[Illini]

I guess I'm just unsure and not quite sold on Fezzik's advice. I know he's probably the sharpest in here, but it confuses me a bit. If the best handicappers can only consistently win 56% of the time, it seems that betting the same amount every time would free them up and just allow them to pick winners. Everyone would agree that chasing is a losing man's game, even though we all have to fight ourselves to not do it. So why is there ever a need to up your bet? To me, it would be added stress, because then those games are more like a "must win." I bet a lot more than one unit on Michigan St over Penn State in football last year, because it was the worst line I think I will ever see in my lifetime. They covered by 30 points, but I felt guilty for upping my bet. I guess I'm curious to know more about you pros out there. Do you give each pick a certain number of stars and bet accordingly, varying on almost every bet? Or is it more like when line comes around that you just can't believe with your own eyes, do you double up or triple up? Explain more to this newbie, cause I'm only going into my 3rd year of betting.

 

[theswami]

Isn't this an odds game? It would make sense to bet more on a game that you feel stronger about.

Where "gambling" goes wrong for the average bettor is that he chases...not because he has a better read on a game or noticed that the line was off more than it is on a "average" play but because he is down and playing catch-up on games that probably shouldn't be bet in the first place.

BTW, before I got smart about this game, I used to chase like a m-f'er. I'm just glad that was in high school and college before I had an opportunity to do real damage. Then again, I also enjoyed "gambling" more then, now it can almost be a chore.

 

[SportSavant]

If the world has a certain NFL team minus 5.5 -110...

& you find a bookie or a local that has -7 -110

would you not say (especially if you like the dog anyway) that the + 7 -110 is worth more than the standard 1 UNIT... there are times when you must look at the mathematics of a situation & Press... Over the long run these 'Rogue' Plays should hit higher than the standard 55% (hopefully)

 

[SENDITIN]

Good point Sport...always pound the local guy with the slow or non moving line.

The best method I've come across though is to round up all of your friends and hold their bets. There's no thinking involved...only profit.

 

[SSI]

savant, didnt mean it was the correct way,, i meant that is what people tend to do.. i dont mind taking a shot with the house's money.. i play foots differently than hoops or bases somewhat,, i tend to pick and choose a little more unlike bb where i tend to flat bet more.

 

[JohnnyDeMarco]

I agree with Jman. If you flucuate your plays you are going down. Every once in a while maybe step it up. You dont know how many times over the years Ive had guys 8-2 or 9-1 and they are down money overall.

 

[avssports]

i think there's more than one way to make it in this business..just pick the style that fits your personality..you give pocket aces to 10 pros and they'll play it 10 different ways...for anyone to be criticle of a person's betting style because it differs from theirs is pretty narrow-minded...i've bet using both flat and varying my unit sizes, for me flat betting has been much more profitable because it keeps me under control emotionally and mentally..the advantage of keeping my bankroll far outweighs making an extra couple of hundred dollars on a game...

 

[Phaedrus]

Interesting stuff. I've thought about putting disclaimers in my plays for those that follow them, because my unit count can be misleading -- a two-unit or three-unit or pi(r)squared unit bet is not a bet about which I am feeling more confident than a one-unit bet ... my bets size is varied by a long-term system of money management that is based on (a) how I am doing overall for the season and (b) what that particular "type" of play has done for me for the season.

Example:

I start everything out at 1 unit per (or to win 1) flat bets. Once I am up 10 units overall, and for as long as I am up at least 10 units, I go to a 2 unit flat bet. As the season hashes out there will be certain trends, teams etc. that have an overall higher winning result than others -- and for these, if I am up enough, I'll wager more. One trend bet that has always done me well is in NCAA hoops to play +150 or higher ML dogs on the spread (usually +4.5 to +5.5 points.) Say I'm up 15 units overall and bets on this trend for the season are 20-10 +9 units ... hell yes I'm going to put extra units on the next one. The theory behind this is akin to reinvesting dividends on a winning stock -- if it's performing then it is just stupid to not compound the earnings while the going is good. And it's a self-correcting practice, because if the trend reverses the short-term losses clearly signal that it is time to cool off.

Unfortunately this is totally meaningless if you just started following my picks three days ago and it's four months into the season, but the system does pay off well overall -- as can be evidenced my my usually sub-.500 results that are nonetheless almost always on the plus money side of the balance sheet.


Phaedrus

 

[wantitall4moi]

The thing about rouge numbers is tricky. The 5.5 and finding a 7. I would most defiately try to middle that. Until the game is over no one can be sure which number was "right" and which number was "wrong"

And therein lies the problem. Because you think +7 is so much better than +5.5 and you think you have found a "secret" number you bet way more than you should. And if you are wrong you pay a much steeper price. I would rather lay the -110 both ways and have a middle and a side shot. That way I don't have to be right or wrong, just lucky. Because even if it is steam that moved the line, there is no gaurabntee the steam is right. Steam has been shitty for a long time in all the sports. That is why I am not a big believer in it. And you cannot convince me nor can you prove to me that it has been a money maker, short of specific betting slips.

Generally I am not a big middler, but it is worth it in most cases, especially with the right numbers and the right odds.

You still have to pick more winners than losrs, even if you are staging bets. Because sooner or later you will lose those big bets.


And being ahead or behind really shouldn't factor in either. That is ust another psychological barrier to overcome. Say you are up 2500 after starting with 1000. Then you start going crazy. Greed sets in from that point, and unless you are living with a horse shoe up your ass you are going to lose. Vegas(books) love guys that win, because they are the guys that come back EXPECTING to win the next time, and 90% of the time those guys lose what they won last time, and then some.

Unless a guy hits some off the wall 15 team parlay for 15K or something ridiculous they are going to piss away what they won. And if it is a local degenrate at the Stardust even that 15K won't last the season.

I see guys hit $1000 parlays all the time downtown, and they are bust within a week. Some call it greed, I call it lack of vision. They are living in the here and now looking to bust them up all at once. I look to grind it out over the long haul. Those places aren't going anywhere, so why try to break them? Take yopur share everyday and be happy.

 

[Journeyman]

nice write up wantitall

 

[heart222]

I think the odds change or the type of teams playing each other. couple of years ago was betting hockey over because of the new rule changes. most games were 4.5 and 5 and did well about 2 weeks in books awoke and it became 5 5.5 changesthe dynamic. So I bet flat and if ahead some number move my bet up a little. from say 25 to 35 type of thing. Smae happens in football I am what you guys would call a square I bet favorites and over most of the time so when home favorites around i am comfortable and can do well but when stong teams go on road i struggle a little so i think its a matter of type of style and schedule matching your style. in baskets i bet west vs east when west is home most of time had a good year yet one week ind and det and n.j. went west i passed i dont think its automatic i like to be mechanical butr somewhere instinct takes over. like yesterday decided atl had won enough and left alone along with my norma lovers balt and clevland so much for instinct. just the thoughts of ajoe the fan type bettor.

 

[Fezzik]

The 49ers opened at 7.5 at one shop this year.

Flat bettors would play their 1 unit under 7.5.

And they would be fired for gross incompetence by any serious, pro bettor. Ditto for those playing 1 unit on Mia under 9 +105 when Ricky went down.

Picking 54-56% has only some correlation with betting winning percentage. Their are guys than cannot pick their nose vs. market numbers that can spot somewhat off lines (1 unit plays) vs. very off lines (back up the truck).

Excuse me, while I bomb in some more Seahawks over 8.5 -170 bets..............

 

[wantitall4moi]

Futures are not reletive in this argument. They are a whole other animal. Especailly since most places have very low limits on futures, INCLUDING Pinnalce, the end all be all for most guys. They are $1000 as far as I know. So for some that might not even be a full unit in and of itself.

Not to mention if you could have found under 9 +105 AFTER he announced then you take the shot for a max bet, then a buy back. You could take over 8 for + odds thus having a no lose shot with two sides (both even numbers), or you could take the 7.5 at Pin for the higher odds and shoot for the middle.

All depends on what you want. But since the max is 1000 the choices are limited.

Same goes for the Sf line. I heard about the 7.5, but never saw it,best I saw was 6.5, which is still good enough, but again the limits were restrictive, but there you have a middle shot, and plus odds on the 5.5 Over. So again a no lose shot right there. With the 7.5 you have two middle shots as well as the nice odds on the over.

Call it sissy betting, or whatever. But I will take the free money every time, expecially with limited limits.

 

[oldmanTED]

Establishment of a bankroll at the outset of a season or wagering year is very important prior to deciding how one will wager. Flat betting a dollar amount without having a bankroll could either result in a quick exit for the year or lead to a minimal gain while grinding out a decent winning percentage of 55% or better.

Personally, each of my plays will be a percentage of my bankroll at the start of each week, ranging from 1%-5%. If the bankroll increases or decreases 20%, the amount of the wager will be increased or decreased accordingly, but the percentage range remains the same. Example: Opening bankroll 10K, wagers range between $100 to $500 per play. Bankroll reaches 12K, wagers range between $120 to $600. Bankroll decreases to 8K, wagers range between $80 to $400. These are base figures. The vig is added.

This type of method while protecting the bankroll, allows for a much greater increase in the bankroll over the course of the year as well as return on investment then flat betting. Archived is a thread I wrote last December which chronicled my 2002 Football Season in it's entirety where my win percentage was a decent 55%, but my increase in bankroll was 94%.

The decision on what percentage to apply in any particular game has absolutely nothing to do with how successful or unsuccessful I am at any point in time. It has to do with the fundamental differences between the two teams and line value. Other factors are included as well. The greater the fundamental differences in the teams as well as the wider the difference between my number and the line, the greater percentage the play. Throughout the year, most plays will fall into the 1% category, with fewer plays in the higher percentages, with a 5% play being rare, with approximately a half dozen for my entire wagering year from August through June.

This method isn't for everyone, but after 30+ years, I have become very comfortable with the consistent return this method has provided. Like any good investment, it provides a compounding affect rather then a straight line of growth.

Regardless which money management method one chooses, it is better to have a plan before the season or wagering year begins, then to have no plan at all. The graveyards are filled with those that could handicap games well, but had no clue how to manage their money. Like any other business, without a plan, success is unlikely.

Best of luck this year.

 

[wantitall4moi]

My only question to this method ted is say in week one with a 10K bankroll you have 5 simultaneous bets going at $500 per. That means your bankroll is standing at 7500, and another $500 bet would be 6.67% of your roll, not 5%, or roughly a 75% increase over 5% (since we are talking in percentages)

Now this might not happen and probably won't but it is a dilemna nontheless. Not to mention if said 5 bets go 0-5. Now your bankroll is already down 25% after one week, and betting 1-5% is going to take doubly long to not only regain losses, but attain a profit. Especailly since the REAL MONEY bet amount has now decreased from 100 to 500 to 75 to 375.

The thing everyone has to realize is worst case scenario, even with the best laid money managemnet plan. Some might call it a defeatests attitude, I call it a contingency plan.

Afterall sound money managements main focus is to avoid catostrphic losses or ruin.

Eevryine wants to pretend they get rich quick when in fact mist go broke quick. I have no problems claiming to be a scalper, grinder, low risk taker, "unable to pick my nose" bettor. All I know is I show a profit in every sport I bet every year. (with one football season exception)

The thing is, it isnt how much you win, it is how much you don't lose. The more consistantly I don't lose, the more money I make overall. When done right it is a business. No glamour, no excitement. Just looking at numbers and lessening risks.

 

[oldmanTED]

wantitall4moi:

You may have not completely understood what I wrote. Most of my plays will be 1% of my bankroll, with less plays being a higher percentage and finally the rare 5% plays occuring approximately a half dozen total plays for the entire wagering year between August and June. I will never have multiple 5% plays. If I knew how to find the link to my archived thread on the 2002 Football Season, I would post it here, so you would see the breakdown of the plays. Perhaps one of our posters could find the link and attach it to my reply.

A quick look at my posted plays from December 2003 through June 2004 showed 291 total plays broken down as follows:

5* Plays: (1-0)
3* Plays: (10-7)
1* Plays: (150-116-7)

As you can see the risk to the bankroll was minimal throughout the seven month stretch. Hope this somewhat clarifies my approach.

 

[wantitall4moi]

I figured as much. Like I said, I was using an extreme example. But you aren't going hog wild on the multiple star plays either. Like a lot of peole do.

To me for mst people it is all a psychological thing. When you win it generates winning because you are calmer, more happy and are thinking more clearly. When you lose you get nervous, maybe even desperate, and that is when the trouoble starts. That is why I take the stand that if people went into it with a worstcase scenario mind set they would be better off.

But obviously you still have to pick winners at a good enough rate to succeed. Unless you are just in it as a hit and run bettor. Meaning you lay it down on 5 or 6 games a year and hope to go undefeated. I call it the "Vegas Mentality". When saps come into town witha huge bakroll, hit the tables as soon as they get into town and are looking to break the bank in two days. Inevitabely most are broke before midnight and are stuck there for another day and a half without any money, unless they came alone then they just hit the 15 again. If I had a buck for every couple I saw where the girl was bitching at the guy for losing their money so fast I wouldn't need to bet.

Obviously hot streaks happen, but they generally don't last 60 hours. The easiest weay for them to win is to party for a couple days then hit the tables right before they leave and hope to hit just before they have to leave, then they don't have time to lose back their winnings.

 

[MARSELLUS]

I will try to follow your advice still I think I won't be able because ususally I change the amount 20 times before actually placing the wager