My 2015 offseason thread

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Russ, Hope I dont step on your toes, but Im going to start a thread called "My 2015 Inter-Season Thread". That is all.


Looking forward to it. I am glad many of us are getting on the same page. Take my word for it. The harder your prepare the better and it will pay off. Of course we have to make some adjustments as the season progresses but so be it. Sharing is the key. BOL
 

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Russ, good to see you posting. Let's get ready to rumble this fall!
 

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from philesteele.com:

[h=1]Marquee WK 1 College Games[/h]
PRINTED 2/14/2015 (courtesy of 5dimes)​
Thursday, September 03, 2015
North Carolina+7 (†Charlotte, NC)
South Carolina-7
Michigan1
Utah-1
Saturday, September 05, 2015
Arizona State6
Texas A&M-6
Alabama-12 (†Arlington, TX)
Wisconsin12
Virginia16
UCLA-16
Texas+12
Notre Dame-12
Auburn-10 (†Atlanta, GA)
Louisville10
Monday, September 07, 2015
Ohio State-16
Virginia Tech16
 

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The following players finished in the top 25 in total offense in 2014 and do not return for the 2015 season.

(1) Connor Halliday (Washington St) (2) Shane Carden (E Carolina) (3) Brandon Doughty ( W KY)
(5) Marcus Mariota (Oregon), (7) Bryce Petty (Baylor) (9) Blake Frohnapfel (U Mass) (11) Rakeem
Cato (Marshall) (13) Jake Waters ( Kansas St) (14) Grant Hedrick (Boise St) (15) Jameis Winston
(Florida St) (16) Garrett Grayson (Col State) (17) Andrew Hendrix (Miami O) (19) Brett Hundley
(UCLA) (21) Clint Trickett (W Vir)

The following players finished in the top 25 in total offense in 2014 and do return for the 2015 season:

(4) Trevone Boykin (TCU) (6) Dak Prescott (Miss St) (8) Jared Goff (Cal) (10) J. T. Barrett (Ohio St) (12) Fredi Knighten (Ark St) (18) Marquise Williams ( N Car) (20) Anu Solomon (Arizona) (23) Zack Terrell (W Mich) (24) Cody Kessler (USC) (25) Sam Richardson (Iowa St)

#22 Everett Golson transferred from N. Dame and will play for Florida in 2015
 

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The following players finished in the top 25 in passing in 2014 and do not return for the 2015 season:

(1) Brandon Doughty ( W KY) (2) Shane Carden (E Carolina) (3) Marcus Mariota (Oregon) (4) Garrett Grayson (Col St) (6) Jameis Winston (Fl St) (7) Rakeem Cato (Marshall) (9) Conner Halliday (Wash St) (10) Bryce Petty (Baylor) (13) Grant Hedrick (Boise St) (14) Dylan Thompson (S Car) (15) Jake Waters (Kansas St) (16) Blake Sims (Ala) (20) Cody Sokol (La Tech) (21) Blake Frohnapfel (U Mass) (22) Clint Trickett (W. Vir) (24) Andrew Hendrix (Ark St)

The following players finished in the top 25 in rushing in 2014 and do not return for the 2015 season:

(5) Jared Goff (Cal) (8) Trevone Boykin (TCU) (11) Cody Kessler (USC) (12) Anu Solomon (Arizona) (17) Dak Prescott (Miss St) (19) Zack Terrell (W Mich) (23) Nick Arbuckle (Geo St) (25) Fredi Knighten (Ark St)

(18) Everett Golson transferred from N. Dame and will play for Florida in 2015
 

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The following players finished in the top 25 in passing in 2014 and do not return for the 2015 season:

(1) Brandon Doughty ( W KY) (2) Shane Carden (E Carolina) (3) Marcus Mariota (Oregon) (4) Garrett Grayson (Col St) (6) Jameis Winston (Fl St) (7) Rakeem Cato (Marshall) (9)

Conner Halliday (Wash St) (10) Bryce Petty (Baylor) (13) Grant Hedrick (Boise St) (14) Dylan Thompson (S Car) (15) Jake Waters (Kansas St) (16) Blake Sims (Ala) (20) Cody Sokol

(La Tech) (21) Blake Frohnapfel (U Mass) (22) Clint Trickett (W. Vir) (24) Andrew Hendrix (Ark St)

The following players finished in the top 25 in rushing in 2014 and do not return for the 2015 season:

(5) Jared Goff (Cal) (8) Trevone Boykin (TCU) (11) Cody Kessler (USC) (12) Anu Solomon (Arizona) (17) Dak Prescott (Miss St) (19) Zack Terrell (W Mich) (23) Nick Arbuckle (Geo

St) (25) Fredi Knighten (Ark St)

(18) Everett Golson transferred from N. Dame and will play for Florida in 2015
 

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The following players finished in the top 25 in rushing and do not return for the 2015 season:

(1) Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin) (2) Tevin Coleman (Indiana) (5) Jay Ajaya (Boise St)

(9) Duke Johnson (Mia Fl) (11) David Cobb ( Minn) (12) Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska)

(13) Cameron Artis-Payne (Auburn) (19) Jeremy Langford (Mich St) (21) Javorius Allen (USC)

(22) Anthone Taylor (Buff)

The following players finished in the top 25 in rushing and do return for the 2015 season:

(3)Ezekiel Elliot (Ohio St) (4) Donnel Pumphrey (S D St) (6) Devon Johnson (Marshall)

(7) James Conner (Pitt) (8) Samaje Perine (Oklahoma) (10) Kareem Hunt (Toledo)

(14) Jordan Howard (UAB) (15) Paul Perkins (UCLA) (16) Jarvion Franklin (W Mich)

(17) Nick Chubb (Georgia) (18) Leon Allen (W Ky) (20) Devonte Booker (Utah)

(23) Nick Wilson (Arizona) (24) Marteze Waller (Fresno St) (25) Royce Freeman (Oregon)
 

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The following teams are returning QB/RB duos that could show improvement:

Miss St returns #17 QB Dak Prescott and #32 RB Josh Robinson

Cal returns #5 QB Jared Goff and #37 RB Daniel Lasco

La Tech returns #20 QB Cody Sokol and #27 RB Kenneth Dixon


Here are some QB’s that could move up in the rankings in 2015:

#26 Gunner Kiel (Cinn) #27 Connor Cook (Mich St) #29 (Brad Kaaya (Miami Fl)
 

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I saw a picture of Perine today in Rivals. This kid has a pair of guns as big as pumpkins. He's going to be a load back there if Riley lets him loose...
 

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Oops - What do you think about the change of schools. I think he will do just fine.

I think he may not win the starting job!

I think it was a shitty move by Jimbo. Bad for team chemistry. They have a solid QB in McGuire and 2 blue chip freshman.
 

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I think he may not win the starting job!

I think it was a shitty move by Jimbo. Bad for team chemistry. They have a solid QB in McGuire and 2 blue chip freshman.

Jimbo's WIFE must agree with you Coach...she's started some wild rumors around Tallahassee lately.
 

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Wow, you would think they made him some promises before he transferred. Maybe he just got tired of playing in cold weather lol.
 

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One stat I look at is how a team’s total offense relates to their scoring offense. If those stats are disproportionate it makes me wonder. It always makes me wonder when a team has a better ranking in total offense than they do in scoring offense. Conversely it always makes me wonder when a team has a better ranking in scoring offense than they do in total offense. Here are some examples. I will list their total offense ranking first and their scoring offense ranking second, both in parenthesis.

Wash St (#7) / (#45) – so #7 in total offense but only #45 in scoring offense. Something wrong somewhere. Normally a team ranked in the top 30 or so in total offense also has a similar ranking in scoring offense. Not here. Here are some more.

Texas Tech (#10) / (#52)
N. Mex State (49) / (#92)
Tulsa (56) / ( 91)

Factors involved are categories like turnovers, red zone offense, etc.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

The following teams have better offensive scoring rankings than they do total offense rankings.

Duke (66) / (40) – So #66 in total offense but #40 in scoring offense. Big difference.

Florida (#93) / (#53)
La Tech (#62) / (#13)
Maryland (#109) / (#65)
Minnesota (#103) / (#66)
Missouri (#95) / (#70)
N Texas (#114) / (#76)
Tennessee (#90) / (#62)
UCF (#99) / (#69)
Utah (#76) / (#49)
Washington (#76) / (#49)
W Virginia (#12) / (#34)

Again there are factors to consider but in comparing last year’s stats to this year’s teams there are more such as number of returning starters especially key players, how long a HC and his systems have been in effect, strength of schedule, and many more.

These stats are not something you get exposed to very often. These are just a part of my comprehensive spreadsheet that I use to prepare for an upcoming season.
 

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Below are the red zone offense rankings for the teams mentioned in the above post concerning total offense and scoring offense:

Wash St #82
Texas Tech #100
N Mex St #65
Tulsa #101

Duke #34
Florida #11
La Tech #22
Maryland #9
Minnesota #32
Missouri #3
N Texas #1
Tennessee #5
UCF # #81
Utah #52
Wash #23
W Virginia #83

So you can compare these to the stats and see how red zone offense can help or hurt the relationship between total offense and scoring offense.
 

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The high tempo wide open offenses have dominated football in recent years. Before then teams who could rush and control the ball (time of possession) pretty much dominated and it reflected in the ATS records. Last year the same thing happened with the new offenses. I think partly because the wide open offenses have spread out the defenses and that teams that can run do just that.

In 2014 the top 25 teams in Time Of Possession went 186-139 (58%) ATS. They were led by Western Michigan (10-3), Arkansas (10-3), Georgia Tech (10-4), Ohio St (10-5) and Rice (9-4).

So Time of Possession again becoming a positive factor. Will that continue in 2015 we shall see.

BOL
 

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I will take a little time off now and allow some time to digest the most recent posts. If you have any questions please let me know. BOL
 

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The high tempo wide open offenses have dominated football in recent years. Before then teams who could rush and control the ball (time of possession) pretty much dominated and it reflected in the ATS records. Last year the same thing happened with the new offenses. I think partly because the wide open offenses have spread out the defenses and that teams that can run do just that.

In 2014 the top 25 teams in Time Of Possession went 186-139 (58%) ATS. They were led by Western Michigan (10-3), Arkansas (10-3), Georgia Tech (10-4), Ohio St (10-5) and Rice (9-4).

So Time of Possession again becoming a positive factor. Will that continue in 2015 we shall see.

BOL

I'm very interested in watching Oklahoma's offense this year. I think they made a homerun hire at OC.

I'd disregard ANY stats related to UF's 2010-2014 offenses.....
 

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