Let's start my week 13 picks with the totals:
usc@ucla- over 63, this is the battle of LA and I don't see usc stopping Brett Hundley, and UCLA can't stop anyone period so it's on like donkey kong
ok state@baylor- over 66.5, baylor will be looking to impress and they may cover 29, but the over is the safer bet I believe as the pokes should find the endzone a few times. Besides they've got nothing to lose and they should go for it a lot in order to keep up.
colorado@oregon- over 71.5, this is senior day for the ducks but their defense won't be able to contain Nelson spruce and a very fiesty buffalo team. Oregon should score virtually at will and colorado should put up 20+ points. I can't pull the trigger on the cover because the ducks don't bury lesser teams they left off the gas pedal, but this could be 50 total points at the half alone. This is one f my more confident plays overall.
Marshall@uab- over 68, marshall can score a ton and in bunches but it's senior day for uab so expect a battle on the scoreboard and big numbers. I'm also taking marshall to cover 20pts.
indiana @ ohio state- over 64.5, indiana will score once or twice eve of they are garbage tds, but Ohio state will light it up to reassure voters they deserve in the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised to see 56 from the Buckeyes themselves.
SIDES:
marshall -20, I love this team and they cover consistently in a weak conference, in laying 20
northwestern- pick'em, what the hell, why not
minnesota +10- way to much on the line even with nebraska having senior day, this game means to much to be decided by 2 tds
michigan state -22, im gonna wait to see if I can get -21 but if not I'll take 22 since its senior day as well and they should be motivated to go out on a high note for the seniors last game in east Lansing, look for an air tight defensive performance. Lay the points
boise state -12.5, wyoming is not good, boise is.
Memphis -20, see game above. Same story
fsu -17, the noles are closing in on a playoff birth, time to turn the dial up at home... Fsu rolls
arkansas +3.5, it's senior day in Fayetteville and ole miss is in disarray. Their defense will travel but I think we will see more bad bo then good bo and the running attack of the hogs should eventually wear down a great front seven for ole miss. I think it's a straight up win but I'll take the 3.5
wisconsin-10.5@iowa, it's hard not to take Melvin here especially after iowa just got embarassdd by minnesota....??? Yikes, melvin is in the heisman hunt, give him the rock 35 times here and ride that stallion to a 24point win..... Did I mention wisconsin has an elite defense? Yes. Elite. I'll lay the points
usc@ucla- over 63, this is the battle of LA and I don't see usc stopping Brett Hundley, and UCLA can't stop anyone period so it's on like donkey kong
ok state@baylor- over 66.5, baylor will be looking to impress and they may cover 29, but the over is the safer bet I believe as the pokes should find the endzone a few times. Besides they've got nothing to lose and they should go for it a lot in order to keep up.
colorado@oregon- over 71.5, this is senior day for the ducks but their defense won't be able to contain Nelson spruce and a very fiesty buffalo team. Oregon should score virtually at will and colorado should put up 20+ points. I can't pull the trigger on the cover because the ducks don't bury lesser teams they left off the gas pedal, but this could be 50 total points at the half alone. This is one f my more confident plays overall.
Marshall@uab- over 68, marshall can score a ton and in bunches but it's senior day for uab so expect a battle on the scoreboard and big numbers. I'm also taking marshall to cover 20pts.
indiana @ ohio state- over 64.5, indiana will score once or twice eve of they are garbage tds, but Ohio state will light it up to reassure voters they deserve in the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised to see 56 from the Buckeyes themselves.
SIDES:
marshall -20, I love this team and they cover consistently in a weak conference, in laying 20
northwestern- pick'em, what the hell, why not
minnesota +10- way to much on the line even with nebraska having senior day, this game means to much to be decided by 2 tds
michigan state -22, im gonna wait to see if I can get -21 but if not I'll take 22 since its senior day as well and they should be motivated to go out on a high note for the seniors last game in east Lansing, look for an air tight defensive performance. Lay the points
boise state -12.5, wyoming is not good, boise is.
Memphis -20, see game above. Same story
fsu -17, the noles are closing in on a playoff birth, time to turn the dial up at home... Fsu rolls
arkansas +3.5, it's senior day in Fayetteville and ole miss is in disarray. Their defense will travel but I think we will see more bad bo then good bo and the running attack of the hogs should eventually wear down a great front seven for ole miss. I think it's a straight up win but I'll take the 3.5
wisconsin-10.5@iowa, it's hard not to take Melvin here especially after iowa just got embarassdd by minnesota....??? Yikes, melvin is in the heisman hunt, give him the rock 35 times here and ride that stallion to a 24point win..... Did I mention wisconsin has an elite defense? Yes. Elite. I'll lay the points
Hope everyone had a blessed thanksgiving and enjoyed the great feast. Let's start with some totals, which i will admit are not my forte. All of these picks will be posted in my season long thread as well
my personal betting scale:
small-20$
medium- 50$
large- 100$
Totals:
virginia/ Virginia tech under 40.5- tech didn't score a point last week in regulation then lost in OT to wake forest. They've got serious offensive issues, but both defenses play like savages. Their may be only 1 td all day if any at all.
(MEDIUM)
arkansas/Mizzou under 44.5- the Razorbacks haven't given up a point in the sec west in 8 straight quarters and Mizzou is God awful offensively.... But they are good defensively. I'm shocked to see the total above 40 so I'll gladly play the under (MEDIUM)
ball state/ bowling green over 57.5 - im not high on ball state period and I know bowling green doesn't play much defense, but they score a lot, and they usually find a way to give up 20+ every game. I think this total will be very close and I could see a 40-20 game. (SMALL)
w. Kentucky/Marshall over 75 - everyone knows Marshall can score and they play good defense as well, but this might be their biggest test yet. Some people think western Kentucky has an elite passing attack, I wouldn't go that far but they should score more than a fair share, which should prompt Marshall to light up their flag football defense.
(MEDIUM)
side plays:
virginia - pick'em..... As stated above tech is brutal this year offensively and this game will be a defensive slugfest. Both defenses are good so im going with the team that adtually has a chance to put the ball in the endzone. (MEDIUM)
arkansas -3 ..... I've been upfront and honest that I pick games based upon factors like, momentum, injuries, motivation, homefield advantage, etc etc and not based upon stats. They are building something in arkansas, and if they had a real qb and one go to wideout they would have dropped jaws this year in the sec west, and they almost did anyways. This team is a freight train right now filled with confidence and attitude. Mizzou can barely score at times. I'm playing the hot hand here in what I think is an overmatched Mizzou squad... Good luck tackling those two monsters behind the biggest line in every level of football. Could be ugly in the 3rd quarter. (LARGE)
colorado state-7.5.... These guys are destroying people. Air Force has made me some money but it stops here... I don't care about the hook, this should be an 18 pt win. The Rams can run it, and pass it with one of the best wideouts in the country. Air Force will have to be perfect on offense and they won't be in my opinion. (LARGE)
Western Kentucky (contingent upon the line getting to +24!) this is a lot of points against a Marshall team that hasn't quite been clicking the past two weeks. W. Kentucky scores a lot which should allow them to stay within the number, but I'm not crazy about it. I will post this play but I won't personally put it into my local bookie until I see +24 ( MEDIUM)
UCLA-6..... God this game could be bad news for ucla. Stanford is way down as we all know but they love playing against ucla and oregon and shutting down these high profile scrambling QBs. Ucla is hot right now and playing to get revenge on my ducks, which scares the piss out of me, but they just may overlook this game a little bit.... It's senior day so expect a lot of emotion, but remember, defense travels and stanford loves being a road dog.. I'm going to take ucla here primarily because ty Montgomery is questionable/doubtful for stanford and he makes them go.... I'm treading lightly here but I'm sure ucla will win by 40 lol (SMALL)
LEANS!
N. Illinois +7.5 ..... This is for the Mac west division title, but I'm not sure why the public is so crazy about western Michigan. They are hammering this line. Granted the Broncos have a much more explosive passing attack and a good rushing attack to balance it, but their defense and offenses are only slightly better statistically. NIU is the definition of blue collar, they just find ways to win. Here's a couple things I like in this situation.....it's an early game, NIU is coming off 9 days rest while w. Michigan is off 6 days, and lastly, NIU has been here and done this so many times before.... That experience makes me want to take a stab at NIU but the MAC is such a shit show I won't play it large.
navy -8.5..... Navy becomes bowl eligible with a win.... Very big for a service academy. They have a great qb to boast as well with a potent option attack..... I just don't like the 8.5 number. I'll wait and see.
thanks guys and as always the input and advice is always appreciated.
BOL
my personal betting scale:
small-20$
medium- 50$
large- 100$
Totals:
virginia/ Virginia tech under 40.5- tech didn't score a point last week in regulation then lost in OT to wake forest. They've got serious offensive issues, but both defenses play like savages. Their may be only 1 td all day if any at all.
(MEDIUM)
arkansas/Mizzou under 44.5- the Razorbacks haven't given up a point in the sec west in 8 straight quarters and Mizzou is God awful offensively.... But they are good defensively. I'm shocked to see the total above 40 so I'll gladly play the under (MEDIUM)
ball state/ bowling green over 57.5 - im not high on ball state period and I know bowling green doesn't play much defense, but they score a lot, and they usually find a way to give up 20+ every game. I think this total will be very close and I could see a 40-20 game. (SMALL)
w. Kentucky/Marshall over 75 - everyone knows Marshall can score and they play good defense as well, but this might be their biggest test yet. Some people think western Kentucky has an elite passing attack, I wouldn't go that far but they should score more than a fair share, which should prompt Marshall to light up their flag football defense.
(MEDIUM)
side plays:
virginia - pick'em..... As stated above tech is brutal this year offensively and this game will be a defensive slugfest. Both defenses are good so im going with the team that adtually has a chance to put the ball in the endzone. (MEDIUM)
arkansas -3 ..... I've been upfront and honest that I pick games based upon factors like, momentum, injuries, motivation, homefield advantage, etc etc and not based upon stats. They are building something in arkansas, and if they had a real qb and one go to wideout they would have dropped jaws this year in the sec west, and they almost did anyways. This team is a freight train right now filled with confidence and attitude. Mizzou can barely score at times. I'm playing the hot hand here in what I think is an overmatched Mizzou squad... Good luck tackling those two monsters behind the biggest line in every level of football. Could be ugly in the 3rd quarter. (LARGE)
colorado state-7.5.... These guys are destroying people. Air Force has made me some money but it stops here... I don't care about the hook, this should be an 18 pt win. The Rams can run it, and pass it with one of the best wideouts in the country. Air Force will have to be perfect on offense and they won't be in my opinion. (LARGE)
Western Kentucky (contingent upon the line getting to +24!) this is a lot of points against a Marshall team that hasn't quite been clicking the past two weeks. W. Kentucky scores a lot which should allow them to stay within the number, but I'm not crazy about it. I will post this play but I won't personally put it into my local bookie until I see +24 ( MEDIUM)
UCLA-6..... God this game could be bad news for ucla. Stanford is way down as we all know but they love playing against ucla and oregon and shutting down these high profile scrambling QBs. Ucla is hot right now and playing to get revenge on my ducks, which scares the piss out of me, but they just may overlook this game a little bit.... It's senior day so expect a lot of emotion, but remember, defense travels and stanford loves being a road dog.. I'm going to take ucla here primarily because ty Montgomery is questionable/doubtful for stanford and he makes them go.... I'm treading lightly here but I'm sure ucla will win by 40 lol (SMALL)
LEANS!
N. Illinois +7.5 ..... This is for the Mac west division title, but I'm not sure why the public is so crazy about western Michigan. They are hammering this line. Granted the Broncos have a much more explosive passing attack and a good rushing attack to balance it, but their defense and offenses are only slightly better statistically. NIU is the definition of blue collar, they just find ways to win. Here's a couple things I like in this situation.....it's an early game, NIU is coming off 9 days rest while w. Michigan is off 6 days, and lastly, NIU has been here and done this so many times before.... That experience makes me want to take a stab at NIU but the MAC is such a shit show I won't play it large.
navy -8.5..... Navy becomes bowl eligible with a win.... Very big for a service academy. They have a great qb to boast as well with a potent option attack..... I just don't like the 8.5 number. I'll wait and see.
thanks guys and as always the input and advice is always appreciated.
BOL
