with the god awful week of maction behind us we are finally going to see some reasonable football played tonight. being from the west coast the pac 12 has always been my stronger conference to play because i watch way to many games. so here's my insight into the three games tonight. the lines and totals used will be current from scores and odds:
ECU -3 @ cincy, total 68
both teams are coming off a bye week which means both teams should be primed and ready to go for this game. cincy is on a 3 game win streak but don't let that fool you, those 3 wins have come against SMU, S. florida, and tulane, all of whom are below .500 on the season and 3 of the bottom 5 teams in the AAC. cincy got demolished against ohio state, memphis, and miami, all of which are respectable opponents. Now ECU comes into town after a horrible loss against temple in terrible weather. Ecu may not be the elite team as everyone once thought, but they can hang big numbers all over the scoreboard when they are firing on all cylinders. this team should come in ready to embarrass someone and this game could be over at half considering cincy's last 3 games of defensive stats have come against teams that are offensively inept. Ecu plays defense and its pretty respectable to go along with their potent offense who ranks 4th in the nation in total yards per game....this is an easy choice to me, ecu is better and more talented, i'll lay the points.
pick: ECU -3
Southern miss @ UTSA -7, total 46
this line came out at -11.5 and has dropped 4.5 point before gameday! that's ridiculous and incomprehensible. im sure it was sharp money that came in early to drive that way down as there is no reason to ever give a road team that many points against a struggling UTSA squad. with that being said UTSA is filled with seniors and im sure they want to go out on a high note and win these last coupe games. they are awful offensively but their defense is very good in that conference and they have played arizona and other teams very tight this year. this may sound funny but i think UTSA is the much better team here and i can see value in picking them at -7, but its risky. a very good capper on this forum has already posted a thread with his nod going toward the under. "enfuego" is very smart and i agree with his perception of this game being low scoring because utsa and southern miss both struggle to move the ball. im giving enfuego the credit with this pick, since its clearly not my idea but i like it none the less.
pick: under 46, lean UTSA-7
cal @ USC -15, total 72
this game could be wild. USC is the heavy favorite here and its because of their playmakers and wins against arizona and stanford, but they did lose to utah, boston college and arizona state. the pac 12 south division has been all over the map this season with arizona being a top 10 team at one point, usc being top 15, and now arizona state being the flagship towards the pac 12 champoionship. there is a lot of parity in this division so its truly hard to tell which team is a contender and which is a pretender. Cal on the other hand is a monster on offense, and has apparently decided to quit playing defense all together this season. they have scored 30+ in 8 of their 9 games this year and 40+ in 6 games, but have given up 30+ in 6 games!... hard to tell against this USC team whether cal will score 20, 30 or 40, but they will score. USC likes to take games off, and both teams are coming off a 12 day rest period so i expect both offenses to show up. dont let USC's last win at washington state deceive you, washington states all american QB was injured early and that made all the difference. Cal actually mixes in a running game too unlike washignton state, and they are building something there for the next couple of season. laying 15 points with a USC team that has very little depth is concerning to me, and my mind tells me that cal who lost to oregon by 18 should be able to cover this spread. i'm going to wait to see if the line moves more in favor of usc as i think it will, and if so ill take a play on the points an cal. as for now my play is on the total. for Usc to win this game they will probably need to score 45+ points and they should at home against a non existent cal defense, but sarkisian also likes to take his foot off the gas pedal late in games and chew clock when he has a lead. as long as cal can keep this within 14 for most of the game it should keep sarkisian's foot on the pedal and be a rather high scoring affair with a little drama at the end. With two very uptempo and explosive offenses that don't struggle to hang points on the board, i look for a high scoring game with a score prediction of something like usc 55 cal 38.
my pick: over 72
Bol everyone and like i said, these are my plays and im not a professional handicapper by any means so follow at your own discretion.
ECU -3 @ cincy, total 68
both teams are coming off a bye week which means both teams should be primed and ready to go for this game. cincy is on a 3 game win streak but don't let that fool you, those 3 wins have come against SMU, S. florida, and tulane, all of whom are below .500 on the season and 3 of the bottom 5 teams in the AAC. cincy got demolished against ohio state, memphis, and miami, all of which are respectable opponents. Now ECU comes into town after a horrible loss against temple in terrible weather. Ecu may not be the elite team as everyone once thought, but they can hang big numbers all over the scoreboard when they are firing on all cylinders. this team should come in ready to embarrass someone and this game could be over at half considering cincy's last 3 games of defensive stats have come against teams that are offensively inept. Ecu plays defense and its pretty respectable to go along with their potent offense who ranks 4th in the nation in total yards per game....this is an easy choice to me, ecu is better and more talented, i'll lay the points.
pick: ECU -3
Southern miss @ UTSA -7, total 46
this line came out at -11.5 and has dropped 4.5 point before gameday! that's ridiculous and incomprehensible. im sure it was sharp money that came in early to drive that way down as there is no reason to ever give a road team that many points against a struggling UTSA squad. with that being said UTSA is filled with seniors and im sure they want to go out on a high note and win these last coupe games. they are awful offensively but their defense is very good in that conference and they have played arizona and other teams very tight this year. this may sound funny but i think UTSA is the much better team here and i can see value in picking them at -7, but its risky. a very good capper on this forum has already posted a thread with his nod going toward the under. "enfuego" is very smart and i agree with his perception of this game being low scoring because utsa and southern miss both struggle to move the ball. im giving enfuego the credit with this pick, since its clearly not my idea but i like it none the less.
pick: under 46, lean UTSA-7
cal @ USC -15, total 72
this game could be wild. USC is the heavy favorite here and its because of their playmakers and wins against arizona and stanford, but they did lose to utah, boston college and arizona state. the pac 12 south division has been all over the map this season with arizona being a top 10 team at one point, usc being top 15, and now arizona state being the flagship towards the pac 12 champoionship. there is a lot of parity in this division so its truly hard to tell which team is a contender and which is a pretender. Cal on the other hand is a monster on offense, and has apparently decided to quit playing defense all together this season. they have scored 30+ in 8 of their 9 games this year and 40+ in 6 games, but have given up 30+ in 6 games!... hard to tell against this USC team whether cal will score 20, 30 or 40, but they will score. USC likes to take games off, and both teams are coming off a 12 day rest period so i expect both offenses to show up. dont let USC's last win at washington state deceive you, washington states all american QB was injured early and that made all the difference. Cal actually mixes in a running game too unlike washignton state, and they are building something there for the next couple of season. laying 15 points with a USC team that has very little depth is concerning to me, and my mind tells me that cal who lost to oregon by 18 should be able to cover this spread. i'm going to wait to see if the line moves more in favor of usc as i think it will, and if so ill take a play on the points an cal. as for now my play is on the total. for Usc to win this game they will probably need to score 45+ points and they should at home against a non existent cal defense, but sarkisian also likes to take his foot off the gas pedal late in games and chew clock when he has a lead. as long as cal can keep this within 14 for most of the game it should keep sarkisian's foot on the pedal and be a rather high scoring affair with a little drama at the end. With two very uptempo and explosive offenses that don't struggle to hang points on the board, i look for a high scoring game with a score prediction of something like usc 55 cal 38.
my pick: over 72
Bol everyone and like i said, these are my plays and im not a professional handicapper by any means so follow at your own discretion.
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