Monday Service Play Thread 01/16/2023

[GLUCK2U]

A sure bet became a $1,400,000 loser.
View attachment 57373

idiot
it's the NFL?? COME ON

 

[BuzzKill]

Lets go Brandon!

Brandon Lang

60 Dimes - Dallas Cowboys first half

 

[savage1]

A good intelligent debate tries not to assume/include new speculations such as bettor has won million of those silly risk/reward to justify one more silly/dumb reward. Who knows what he was thinking or done b4? Just the evidence what we know is it's a silly unjustified risk/reward bet.

Just like no one in OPEC or billionaires spend $292 million to win a more than $1B Power Ball. That's 3 days of ROI. LOL

I fired my advisors when they gave me 10%-12% average ROI and moved my accts.

I got to get this last one positively in.

I knew this analogy is far from perfect but let's use it anyways.

Lets take the 27-0 score at the time the bed and convert the 27 to a hypothetical gun that contained 27 chambers.

The question is whether it would be a wise investment to play Russian Roulette and for someone to put up the same

1.4 million in the football bet to win 11K and assume that the 27/-1 odds are in your favor that you wouldn't pick

the wrong one and thus die!!

 

[onetrikpony]

You only have 1 life this guy has MANY Millions

 

[Lovethegreen]

Executive
250% Cowboys

 

[doctork]

Sterling
30 ?

 

[crawdads2424]

ROOT:

Gold Standard: Cowboys -2.5

 

[moneymike0835]

Anyone seen Essler big 3* on NFL? Thanks

 

[Betmaker110]

Totals Guru

Cowboys vs. Bucs U 45.5
Stars vs. Golden Knights U 6.5
Cornell vs. Columbia O 146.5
Panthers vs. Sabers O 6.5

Is this guy good? Fade or Follow?

 

[Eagle73]

Dwayne Bryant

8:15 PM ET -- NFL
151 Dallas Cowboys
152 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: 151 DALLAS -2.5 (-110)
Bet Size: 5%
Line Parameters:
5% play at -2.5 or better
3% play at -3
1% play at -3.5
Yes, I'm a Cowboys fan, but I NEVER bet with my heart. In fact, I've only bet on Dallas once all season and that was a 5% MAX Bet winner when they went into Minnesota and destroyed the Vikings, 40-3.
This play is 100% about me being a contrarian. If you followed me this season, then you've seen me write things like:
-> No guts, no glory.
-> Scared money don't make money. And I'm not afraid to make bets where if I lose I look like an idiot, and if I win I look like a genius. Case in point, some of you will remember my 5% MAX Bet winner on the 0-1-1 (0-2 ATS) Colts when they upset the 2-0 Chiefs back in Week 3.
-> If a bet is easy to make, it's most likely gonna lose. The toughest bets to make are usually the best ones to make because they win more often than not.
So, let's go back to the contrarian thing. When you have a line at 3 or less and everybody is lining up to bet the same side... well, that should be a red flag.
Think about everything you've been hearing about this game. Things like:
-> Dallas looked like crap in getting blown out in DC last weekend.
-> Dallas' pass rush has fallen off in recent weeks.
-> Dallas is 1-4 on grass this season.
-> Tom Brady is 7-0 in his career against the Cowboys.
-> Tom Brady is the GOAT, while Dak is 1-3 in his career playoff starts and led the league in INTs this season despite missing five games.
Does all that sound familiar? Those are the same talking points you'll hear no matter what channel you're watching, yet the oddsmakers opened Dallas as a 3-point road favorite against the almighty Brady. I haven't seen a single person picking the Cowboys in this game, and that makes me love this play even more. If Dallas had beaten the Commanders last weekend and looked good doing it, I'd probably be betting on the Bucs here.
Here are some facts: Dallas is #6 in Overall DVOA, while the Bucs are #17. The Dallas defense is second to only the 49ers in DVOA, while Tampa's D is #13.
When you've got a spread this low and everybody's on the same side (including the media), you're gonna win many more bets than you lose by going the other way. I'm not afraid to make a bet where I look like a genius if I when and a moron if I lose. Like I said, no guts, no glory.
-> TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams (completion pct. of 61% or better) this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 18.9, OPPONENT 24.6
-> DALLAS is 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 33.1, OPPONENT 17.7
-> TAMPA BAY is 0-7 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.

These are just his interpretation thru his thinking. Very easily someone else could make the opposite. I personally think these are 2 of the more incompetent coaches in the league. Lovie‘s never been a winner and McCarthy had Rodgers and still only managed to go to one super bowl. I think Dak is more likely to make a mistake then Brady. Not a big fan of Brady’s at this point of his career but think he might have One more win in him, besides I like seeing JJ Cry after Cowboys lose.