Dwayne Bryant
8:15 PM ET -- NFL
151Dallas Cowboys
152Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: 151 DALLAS -2.5 (-110)
Bet Size: 5%
Line Parameters:
5% play at -2.5 or better
3% play at -3
1% play at -3.5
Yes, I'm a Cowboys fan, but I NEVER bet with my heart. In fact, I've only bet on Dallas once all season and that was a 5% MAX Bet winner when they went into Minnesota and destroyed the Vikings, 40-3.
This play is 100% about me being a contrarian. If you followed me this season, then you've seen me write things like:
-> No guts, no glory.
-> Scared money don't make money. And I'm not afraid to make bets where if I lose I look like an idiot, and if I win I look like a genius. Case in point, some of you will remember my 5% MAX Bet winner on the 0-1-1 (0-2 ATS) Colts when they upset the 2-0 Chiefs back in Week 3.
-> If a bet is easy to make, it's most likely gonna lose. The toughest bets to make are usually the best ones to make because they win more often than not.
So, let's go back to the contrarian thing. When you have a line at 3 or less and everybody is lining up to bet the same side... well, that should be a red flag.
Think about everything you've been hearing about this game. Things like:
-> Dallas looked like crap in getting blown out in DC last weekend.
-> Dallas' pass rush has fallen off in recent weeks.
-> Dallas is 1-4 on grass this season.
-> Tom Brady is 7-0 in his career against the Cowboys.
-> Tom Brady is the GOAT, while Dak is 1-3 in his career playoff starts and led the league in INTs this season despite missing five games.
Does all that sound familiar? Those are the same talking points you'll hear no matter what channel you're watching, yet the oddsmakers opened Dallas as a 3-point road favorite against the almighty Brady. I haven't seen a single person picking the Cowboys in this game, and that makes me love this play even more. If Dallas had beaten the Commanders last weekend and looked good doing it, I'd probably be betting on the Bucs here.
Here are some facts: Dallas is #6 in Overall DVOA, while the Bucs are #17. The Dallas defense is second to only the 49ers in DVOA, while Tampa's D is #13.
When you've got a spread this low and everybody's on the same side (including the media), you're gonna win many more bets than you lose by going the other way. I'm not afraid to make a bet where I look like a genius if I when and a moron if I lose. Like I said, no guts, no glory.
-> TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams (completion pct. of 61% or better) this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 18.9, OPPONENT 24.6
-> DALLAS is 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 33.1, OPPONENT 17.7
-> TAMPA BAY is 0-7 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.
8:15 PM ET -- NFL
151
152
Play: 151 DALLAS -2.5 (-110)
Bet Size: 5%
Line Parameters:
5% play at -2.5 or better
3% play at -3
1% play at -3.5
Yes, I'm a Cowboys fan, but I NEVER bet with my heart. In fact, I've only bet on Dallas once all season and that was a 5% MAX Bet winner when they went into Minnesota and destroyed the Vikings, 40-3.
This play is 100% about me being a contrarian. If you followed me this season, then you've seen me write things like:
-> No guts, no glory.
-> Scared money don't make money. And I'm not afraid to make bets where if I lose I look like an idiot, and if I win I look like a genius. Case in point, some of you will remember my 5% MAX Bet winner on the 0-1-1 (0-2 ATS) Colts when they upset the 2-0 Chiefs back in Week 3.
-> If a bet is easy to make, it's most likely gonna lose. The toughest bets to make are usually the best ones to make because they win more often than not.
So, let's go back to the contrarian thing. When you have a line at 3 or less and everybody is lining up to bet the same side... well, that should be a red flag.
Think about everything you've been hearing about this game. Things like:
-> Dallas looked like crap in getting blown out in DC last weekend.
-> Dallas' pass rush has fallen off in recent weeks.
-> Dallas is 1-4 on grass this season.
-> Tom Brady is 7-0 in his career against the Cowboys.
-> Tom Brady is the GOAT, while Dak is 1-3 in his career playoff starts and led the league in INTs this season despite missing five games.
Does all that sound familiar? Those are the same talking points you'll hear no matter what channel you're watching, yet the oddsmakers opened Dallas as a 3-point road favorite against the almighty Brady. I haven't seen a single person picking the Cowboys in this game, and that makes me love this play even more. If Dallas had beaten the Commanders last weekend and looked good doing it, I'd probably be betting on the Bucs here.
Here are some facts: Dallas is #6 in Overall DVOA, while the Bucs are #17. The Dallas defense is second to only the 49ers in DVOA, while Tampa's D is #13.
When you've got a spread this low and everybody's on the same side (including the media), you're gonna win many more bets than you lose by going the other way. I'm not afraid to make a bet where I look like a genius if I when and a moron if I lose. Like I said, no guts, no glory.
-> TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams (completion pct. of 61% or better) this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 18.9, OPPONENT 24.6
-> DALLAS is 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 33.1, OPPONENT 17.7
-> TAMPA BAY is 0-7 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.
