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Trends - Philadelphia at LA Dodgers


W/L Trends



Philadelphia
•Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
• Phillies are 13-5 in their last 18 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. National League West.
• Phillies are 11-5 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Phillies are 11-27 in their last 38 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Phillies are 18-45 in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Phillies are 7-21 in their last 28 games following a win.
• Phillies are 2-6 in their last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Phillies are 6-20 in their last 26 Monday games.
• Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Phillies are 5-2 in Eflins last 7 starts.
• Phillies are 5-2 in Eflins last 7 starts on grass.




LA Dodgers
•Dodgers are 10-1 in their last 11 vs. National League East.
• Dodgers are 26-9 in their last 35 home games.
• Dodgers are 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Dodgers are 36-16 in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Dodgers are 66-30 in their last 96 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Dodgers are 72-34 in their last 106 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Dodgers are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win.
• Dodgers are 4-0 in Urias' last 4 home starts.
• Dodgers are 5-0 in Urias' last 5 starts.
• Dodgers are 5-0 in Urias' last 5 starts on grass.


OU Trends



Philadelphia
•Over is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 vs. National League West.
• Over is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 overall.
• Over is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 on grass.
• Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 Monday games.
• Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 road games.
• Over is 6-2 in Phillies last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 10-4 in Phillies last 14 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 7-3-1 in Phillies last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Over is 4-0 in Eflins last 4 starts vs. National League West.
• Over is 5-1 in Eflins last 6 road starts.




LA Dodgers
•Under is 22-7 in Dodgers last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Under is 41-13 in Dodgers last 54 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 22-8 in Dodgers last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 5-2 in Dodgers last 7 Monday games.
• Under is 34-15-2 in Dodgers last 51 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 11-5 in Dodgers last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 13-6 in Dodgers last 19 games following a win.
• Under is 39-18 in Dodgers last 57 home games.
• Under is 35-17 in Dodgers last 52 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 33-16-2 in Dodgers last 51 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 4-0 in Urias' last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.


Head to Head



•Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
• Phillies are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.


Umpire Trends - Name unavailable



No trends available.

 

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The Sports Consensus

MLB Twins over 9

 

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Insider Sports Report

MLB Texas -110

 

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Top Rank Sports Picks

MLB Rays +130

 

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National Sports Service

MLB Reds under 9

 

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Elite Sports Picks

MLB Baltimore -145

 

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Monster Sports Picks

MLB Orioles over 8.5

 

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Primetime Sports Picks

MLB Tigers under 7.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bob Harvey

Giants vs. Marlins
Play: Under 6½

Runs figure to be at a premium tonight when the San Francisco Giants and Florida Marlins open a three-game set in South Beach. First pitch arrives at 7:10 PM ET at Marlins Park where the Fish and Jose Fernandez are moneyline favorites over Johnny Cueto and Bay Area bunch. The UNDER is 6.5.

The Giants (63-48, 31-27 road) are just 6-15 since the All-Star break and have seen their lead over the Dodgers shrink to just one-game. The Marlins (59-52, 29-24 home) took two out of three in Colorado over the weekend, giving them a one-game lead over St. Louis in the race for the NL's second wild-card spot.

Cueto (13-3, 2.73 ERA) is 8-1 with a 2.82 ERA in 12 road outings but has allowed at least four runs in four of his last seven outings. The two-time All Star allowed five runs over five frames in a setback versus the Marlins last season, falling to 4-2 with a 4.18 ERA in eight career starts against them. San Francisco has lost three of Cueto's last four starts after winning 16 of his first 18.

Fernandez (12-6, 2.87 ERA) surrendered three runs in six innings during Tuesday's loss to the Cubs, marking only the second time he’s dropped consecutive starts in the same season. He’s been as good as gold at home posting an out of this world 26-2 record and 1.62 ERA in 38 career starts at home. He’s 1-1 lifetime with a 5.25 ERA in two turns vs. the Giants.

Cueto and Fernandez have combined to hold the opposition to two or fewer runs in 28 of their 43 starts this season.

The Giants and Marlins have squared off 13 times since the stadium opened in 2012, and 10 of the contests have been decided by two runs or fewer.

 

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Wunderdog

San Francisco @ Miami
Pick: Miami -140

San Francisco is 3,000 miles from home, its seventh straight road game of a long trip. It hasn't been a good second half. San Francisco fell to 6-15 since the All-Star break following Sunday's 1-0 loss in Washington. The Giants are on a 3-11 run on the road, plus 4-13 against a right-handed starter. San Francisco ace Johnny Cueto has a 4.18 ERA in eight career starts against Miami. Miami just took two of three in Colorado over the weekend and have a one-game edge over St. Louis in the race for the NL's second wild-card spot. The Marlins are 16-5 against the NL West. Miami has an ace of its own in Jose Fernandez (12-6, 2.87 ERA), who is 26-2 with a 1.62 ERA in 38 career starts at home. The Marlins are a sizzling 30-4 in his last 34 home starts, so back home field.

 

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Rocketman

Texas @ Colorado
Play: Texas -109

The Texas Rangers travel to Colorado to take on the Rockies on Monday night. Texas is 65-47 SU overall this year while Colorado comes in with a 55-56 SU overall record on the season. Cole Hamels is 12-3 with a 2.89 ERA overall this year, 8-2 with a 1.90 ERA on the road this season and 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA his last 3 starts. Hamels has a 3.53 ERA in his 12 starts vs Colorado in his career. Texas is allowing only 3.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall and 3.8 runs per game in interleague play this season. Colorado is allowing 6.4 runs per game at home this year and 6.4 runs per game in interleague play this season. Texas is 38-26 this year after a win. We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight!

 

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Larry Ness

Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins
Pick: Houston Astros

The Houston Astros came out of nowhere to make the playoffs in 2015. They won a one-game wild card playoff over the Yankees but then fell short against the eventual World Series winning Royals in an ALDS matchup. However, the Astros have not been able to build on last year’s success, as at 57-54, Houston finds itself in the third place in the AL West (7 1/2 games back of the Rangers) plus four games out of the final wild card spot. As for the Twins they enter on an 8-3 run but the bottom line is, Minnesota still owns the AL’s worst record at 45-66.

The Twins fired their GM a while back and the team’s 11-11 record since the All Star break is an indication the team is playing “loose and free.” However, Minnesota hosts a Houston team which knows time is running out on its playoff hopes and this figures to be a tough series for the Twins. Tonight’s game is not made easier by the fact that Tyler Duffey (6-8, 6.21 ERA) gets the start for the Twins. He’s on the verge of losing his spot in the rotation and with good reason. While the Twins have been competitive since the break, Duffey hasn’t made it easy on his teammates in that span when taking the mound. He’s lasted just 16 innings in four post-All Star starts, allowing 20 ERs on 31 hits for an abysmal 11.25 ERA. Somehow, the Twins have gone 2-2.

In contrast, Houston’s McHugh enters having allowed three ERs or less in EIGHT of his last nine starts. Let me also note that he has never lost to Minnesota in his brief career, going 3-0 with a 3.04 ERA in four career starts against the Twins (team is 4-0). The Astros need to do well here in Minnesota in this four-game series and McHugh over the struggling Duffey makes for an easy choice.

 

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Chase Diamond

Houston at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota

This game has the 57-54 Astros playing the 45-66 Twins. Big emotional series loss to their division rival Rangers yesterday an it was in extra innings after fighting back to tie the game. Now they have to get up to play the lowly Twins. Astros have lost 5 of their last 6 games and I think the Twins will be way more up for this game and I love the plus money here Tyler Duffy struggled in his return to being a starting pitcher look for his and his team to be super motivated tonight and get us a plus money win.

 

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Don Best Consensus

Brewers TT Over 4.5

The Over is 9-4-1 in MIL last 14 Mon. games. The Brewers are facing Whalen, who makes his 2nd MLB start. He gave up 4 ER over 5 innings his first time out. Some of the Brewers younger players are getting settled in, with Arcia and Broxton having a great hitting series against the Diamondbacks.

 

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Jack Jones

Detroit Tigers +111

I like the value we are getting with the Detroit Tigers as road underdogs to the Seattle Mariners in Game 1 of this series Monday night. The Tigers are playing their best baseball of the season right now having gone 10-2 in their last 12 games overall.

Detroit certainly has the edge on the mound tonight behind Michael Fulmer, who is 9-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 17 starts this season. Fulmer faced the Mariners on June 22, giving up just one earned run over 4 1/3 innings of a 5-1 victory.

Hisashi Iwakuma is past his prime and sports a 3.99 ERA over 22 starts this season. He has never fared well against the Tigers, going 1-2 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in six career starts against them. Iwakuma allowed 5 earned runs, 3 homers and 14 base runners over 4 2/3 innings of a 1-5 loss to the Tigers on June 22 opposite Fulmer.

Fulmer is a sensational 9-1 (+10.1 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. Fulmer is 11-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season. Fulmer is 11-0 (+12.7 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.

 

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Brandon Lee

Tigers vs. Mariners
Play: Under 7½

The books have set the total too high for tonight's series opener between the Tigers and Mariners. Detroit will send out Michael Fulmer, who is enjoying an amazing rookie season. Fulmer is 9-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 17 starts. Seattle counters with Hisashi Iwaukma, who has won 12 games in 22 starts and owns a strong 3.86 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in 10 home starts. He's also coming off a dominant outing at home against the Red Sox, where he gave up just 5 hits and no walks over 7 1/3 scoreless innings. UNDER is 8-0-1 in the Tigers last 9 following a loss and 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games. UNDER is also 8-2 in the Mariners last 10 against the AL Central and 8-3 in their last 11 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

 

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Jimmy Boyd

Rangers vs. Rockies
Play: Under 10½

Typically I don't want anything to do with the UNDER in Coors Field, but this is a rare situation where the total is simply too high to pass up. We have two starters facing off that are more than capable of keeping this a much lower scoring game than the oddsmakers expect.

Texas will send out Cole Hamels, who is 12-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.254 WHIP in 22 starts. He's been at his best on the road, where he's 8-2 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 12 starts. Hamels struggled in his first outing at Colorado way back in 2009, but has been dominant at Coors Field since. In his 4 starts since his debut here, he's allowed just 7 runs in 28 1/3 innings over 4 starts. Allowing 3 earned runs or less in each outing.

Colorado counters with Tyler Anderson, who has pitched effectively in his 10 starts this season, posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.262 WHIP. That's even more impressive when you consider 7 of his 10 starts have come at Coors Field. He'll have a slight advantage here with this being the first time he's faced Texas, plus the Rangers are struggling a bit here at the plate. Texas is averaging just 3.0 runs/game and hitting a mere .253 as a team over their last 7 games.

UNDER is 7-1-2 in the Rangers last 10 interleague games, 12-3-1 in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 15-5 in their last 20 when they come in with a bullpen WHIP of 1.250 or less in their last 15 games. UNDER is also 5-0-1 in the Rockies last 6 during Game 1 of a series, 5-1-1 in their last 7 interleague games and 19-9 in their last 28 games in the 2nd half of the season against a team that averages 7 or more strikeouts/game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Power Sports

Houston vs. Minnesota
Pick: Houston

A weekend that started out w/ so much promise (5-0 shutout of Texas on Friday) quickly deteriorated into disappointment as the Astros then dropped B2B games to the first place Rangers and thus lost ground in the American League West. Now they have to hit the road, but that's not all that bad considering the opponent is Minnesota. For tonight's opener, Houston faces a pitcher in terrible form and should have no problem pulling out a win.

Twins starter Tyler Duffey has a cringe-inducing 14.91 ERA and 2.795 WHIP his L3 starts. During that time, he has given up a total of 16 runs on 25 hits in just 9 2/3 innings of work. Overall, Duffey's numbers are not good this year. In 18 starts, his ERA and WHIP are 6.21 and 1.526 respectively. He's actually been less effective at home than on the road w/ a 7.96 ERA and 1.684 WHIP here at Target Field.

Houston counters w/ Colin McHugh, who comes off a quality outing against Toronto where he struck out 10 over six innings and allowed only three runs. Unfortunately, the Astros still lost that game 3-1. McHugh gave up three solo home runs in the loss. I'm not concerned about the home run ball here as McHugh had allowed just two in his previous five starts. Houston leads the AL in run prevention (448). Minnesota is last (577).

 

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SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay +131 over TORONTO

Jake Odorizzi is one of the hottest pitchers in the majors right now with four walks issued, 27 K’s and a 1.71 ERA over his last 32 frames covering five starts. It gets better too. In his last start, Odorizzi’s groundball rate was 50%. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts was 15%, which is up five percentage points from his overall swing and miss rate of 10%. Before he had spent much time in the majors, minor league analysts projected that Odorizzi would mature into a reliable and very effective starter. Now 26 years old and in the middle of his third full season, that may be coming into fruition. Furthermore, Odorizzi owns current Blue Jays’ hitters. In 134 career AB’s against Odorizzi, current Jays have a mere 20 hits (.149 BA). That’s when the Jays were seeing beach balls. Right now, Toronto is seeing BB gun pellets with a .207 team batting average over the past 20 games, which ranks dead last in MLB over that span.

One can never rely on a knuckleball pitcher because the risk is too high when spotting a tag. That risk becomes even greater when applied to Toronto’s R.A Dickey. At home, Toronto has won just two of Dickey’s last 14 starts. This year at the Rogers Center, Dickey is 2-8 with an ERA of 5.40 over 71.2 innings. What’s even more disturbing is that Dickey has been tagged for 15 jacks in those aforementioned home innings.

This is the time of year that also-rans begin to enjoy the spoiler role. These two are longtime rivals and the Rays would love nothing more than to come in here and make life miserable for the Blue Jays. Tampa has always competed well against Toronto and in fact, the Rays came in here in May and beat the Blue Jays, 6-3, 12-2 and 13-2 in a three-game sweep. Now they’ll come in relaxed with no pressure whatsoever while the Blue Jays continue to squeeze their bats tight.

Cincinnati +174 over ST. LOUIS

The price here on the Cardinals is just plain stupid. The Cardinals are playing foolish baseball by committing too many errors, not moving runners over and leaving pitchers in there too long. Their relievers have been a complete disaster too. They’ll now look to Michael Wacha to turn things around and while it could happen, he and the Cardinals are way overpriced for us to ignore the dog in this one. Wacha has a 1.40 WHIP after 126 innings, which is above our 1.30 threshold for acceptability. In other words, he’s pitching with too much traffic on the bases almost every single game. In his last start, Wacha walked one and struck out three in five innings. His first-pitch strike rate over his last six games is only 57%, which suggests he could be running out of gas. For the most part, Wacha’s season has been a decent one for sure. However, Wacha's xERA of 4.11 isn't anything to get excited about. He hit a wall at the end of last year with an ERA of 7.37 in last six starts and he had serious shoulder issues late in 2014. Backed by solid control, a groundball tilt, and respectable swing and miss stuff, there's a lot to like about Wacha at the age of 25. Thing is, he’s a late season big risk, especially with the signs of fatigue setting in.

We’ve backed Cody Reed a few times this season without much success but we’re not about to give up on this talented starter. Reed has wicked stuff without the results and while said results are ugly on paper (7.30 ERA) it’s all been fueled by some rotten luck. The beautiful thing is that Reed’s surface ERA after eight starts gets us a hugely inflated number here. First off, Reed has 38 K’s in 41 innings, which comes with the full support of his 12% swing and miss rate. He averages 93 MPH on the gun and is often at 95 MPH. In his last start, Reed’s groundball rate was 70%. His overall groundball rate is in the upper echelon of starters at 57% and 63% over his past four starts. Reed’s low strand rate of 65% and high hr/f rate of 31% have combined to torpedo his surface stats. That hr/f rate is actually a sick number that is working against him. More bad luck can be seen in Reed’s BABIP, which is at .367. Typically, balls in play will find holes or drop in three out of every 10 at bats, which explain a hitter that bats .300 every year. Said hitter will ALWAYS put the ball in play and that’s the reason for his consistent BA. Well, the same numbers apply to pitchers too. League average for BABIP is .297, which gives us an idea of just how unlucky Reed has been. This kid has nasty stuff and once his metrics normalize, the wins will follow. At this price against the reeling Cardinals, this is a wager worth making.

Atlanta +141 over MILWAUKEE

Robert Whalen makes just the second start of his MLB career. Whalen was tagged for four runs in the first inning of his first start against Pittsburgh but settled down and did not allow another run over the next four frames. He ended up going five full and allowing four runs for an ERA of 7.20, which looks ugly on paper but does not tell the full story. Whalen began the season in Double-A before getting the call to Triple-A in mid-July. Despite struggling with the injury bug in recent seasons, he’s been fully healthy in 2016. When healthy, he is a command/control starter with average stuff. He consistently throws good strikes to all quadrants of the strike zone with all three offerings. Whalen’s fastball mostly sits in the low-90s, but he exhibits a lot of deception with his throwing motion and arm slot. Additionally, the sinking action on his fastball makes it difficult to elevate. His other pitches include a curveball that serves as his putaway pitch and a solid-average change-up. There is no question that Whalen bring risk but this is simply a scouting report on the guy and has very little to do with our decision to back the Braves. This one is all about the fade.

Not interested in Milwaukee as a big favorite and certainly not interested in Zach Davies as a big favorite either. The Brewers are coming off a six-game trip to San Diego and Arizona where they won once in both cities. The opposition scored 39 times on the Crew in those six games. Davies' stock is high because he has won three games in a row while posting a 2.45 ERA over that stretch but the skills do not support the results. Davies' swing and miss rate in his last start was 4%. He averages 89 MPH on the gun and relies heavily on a change that he throws 20% of the time. He’s decreased the usage of both his cutter and curve so that he’s mostly throwing fastballs and changeups and when he’s inside the zone on those, players are making contact 90.1% of the time. Zack Davies is on quite a roll with an ERA of 1.78 over his last five starts. That’s the same ERA that James Shields had over a recent five-game stretch, which once again proves that pitchers can get very lucky (or unlucky) over an extended period of time. Davies xERA over his last five starts is 4.03 with the fact remaining that excels at nothing. He has a repeatable delivery and induces a fair amount of groundballs but he is average at best and never will be anything more. Davies has far more appeal as a dog.

The Braves pick up Matt Kemp at the trade deadline and subsequently score five runs or more in four of their past five games while winning all four. Against the Cardinals on the weekend, Atlanta scored 13 and six runs respectively on Saturday and Sunday. Feeling good and having fun, these enthusiastic Braves have a great chance to keep it going against here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB
Dunkel

Monday, August 8


San Francisco @ Miami

Game 951-952
August 8, 2016 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
(Cueto) 17.768
Miami
(Frnandez) 12.700
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 5
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
-150
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+130); Under

Atlanta @ Milwaukee

Game 953-954
August 8, 2016 @ 7:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Whalen) 13.722
Milwaukee
(Davies) 12.809
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
-170
9
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+150); Under

Cincinnati @ St. Louis

Game 955-956
August 8, 2016 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
(Reed) 12.896
St. Louis
(Wacha) 16.465
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 3 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-200
9
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(-200); Over

Philadelphia @ LA Dodgers

Game 957-958
August 8, 2016 @ 10:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
(Eflin) 14.359
LA Dodgers
(Urias) 17.434
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-205
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-205); Over

Tampa Bay @ Toronto

Game 959-960
August 8, 2016 @ 7:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Odrizzi) 13.964
Toronto
(Dickey) 16.593
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 2 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-150
9
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-150); Over

Houston @ Minnesota

Game 961-962
August 8, 2016 @ 8:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(McHugh) 18.267
Minnesota
(Duffey) 16.156
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-140
9
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-140); Over

Baltimore @ Oakland

Game 963-964
August 8, 2016 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
(Gausman) 15.256
Oakland
(Grveman) 16.156
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
-155
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+135); Under

Detroit @ Seattle

Game 965-966
August 8, 2016 @ 10:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
(Fulmer) 14.434
Seattle
(Iwkuma) 16.267
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
-115
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-105); Under

Texas @ Colorado

Game 967-968
August 8, 2016 @ 8:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas
(Hamels) 17.552
Colorado
(Andrson) 16.133
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas
-130
10 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Texas
(-130); Under