Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Monday
No commentary today, just a quick Sunday recap and the Monday Bonus Play. Actually, there’s not much to recap as far as Sunday was concerned. I got involved with only one game and stated simply, ran into Jhoulys Chacin on the wrong day. The Angels righty had been nothing short of horrendous for a very lengthy period, but he commanded his breaking ball really well against the Yankees and that paved the way to a 2-0 Halos win. So 0-1 for me on Sunday, but I’m still pretty happy with the way the baseball has run lately.
The Monday card is very thin and honestly not very appealing from a value standpoint. But I’ll go ahead with one play in what certainly has a chance to be the day’s most lopsided result.
CUBS (Lester) at PADRES (Jackson) 10:10 PM
Take: CUBS -1.5 -125
Generally speaking, laying juice while also trying to beat the runs line with the favorite is not what I’d term a winning strategy. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t occasions where it’s an unacceptable process, and I see tonight’s Cubs-Padres game falling into that category.
Jon Lester has regained his usual winning form for the Cubs. It seems unlikely to me that the Padres will do much damage to the talented southpaw. If you look at the full season data for the Friars, it appears that they’re quite productive against opposing lefties. Maybe that should read that they were putting up some impressive numbers. But this team is no longer configured the same way with the trading deadline maneuvers, and the current performance data against southpaws has dropped off in a very big way.
I’ll admit that Edwin Jackson sure surprised me with a couple of strong starts for San Diego. But even a broken clock is correct twice each day, and sure enough, what I’d call the real Edwin Jackson resurfaced in his most recent start. Jackson got blown up, and I expect a similar fate for the veteran righty this evening.
Jackson just doesn’t have the right stuff to stifle the Cubs. The BB/K ratio is unimpressive. Jackson is no longer a particularly hard thrower, with his average fastball now in the 92 range. Therefore, location is more vital than ever for a guy who simply doesn’t have great command. Jackson doesn’t induce much in the way of soft contact, so there’s a pretty good chance we’re going to see a bomb or two launched tonight by a team that can ravage this type.
Anything is always possible in any one baseball game, so maybe Jackson has one of those nights and the Padres get to Lester. But the paper trail is pretty clear on this one and after getting waxed yesterday at Coors, I expect a much different result tonight at Petco. I’m going to spot the -1.5 here and roll with the Cubs.