Strategy for finding value in MLB Cy Young betting
By JOE FORTENBAUGH
Despite a Major League Baseball-worst 9-21 record since entering the All-Star break with a Major League Baseball-best 57-33 mark, the atmosphere surrounding AT&T Park in San Francisco Thursday night was as electric as a midnight tour through the rarely viewed hospital wing at Alcatraz. Thursday marked the commencement of a four-game series between the freefalling Giants and equally disappointing New York Mets, who had dropped 14 of their previous 21 outings before landing in the Bay Area.
Two baseball clubs in disastrous form rarely makes for must-see television, but this game was different, as the Giants and Mets would turn to staff aces Madison Bumgarner and Jacob deGrom in the hopes of kick-starting a run that would hopefully last until late October. The pregame storyline was simple: Two Cy Young candidates who ranked among the top-five in ERA in all of Major League Baseball doing battle in a series opener that featured a Las Vegas over/under of just 6.0 runs.
30 hits, 17 runs and three hours and thirty minutes later, Bumgarner had his 12th win of the season despite surrendering four earned runs in just five innings of work as the Giants emerged victorious by way of a 10-7 shootout over the defending National League Champions. What was billed as a Cy Young showdown was anything but as deGrom served up a career-high eight runs and 13 hits in five innings pitched while Bumgarner was remembered more for his go-ahead two-run jack in the bottom of the fourth rather than the grand slam meatball he threw Justin Ruggiano earlier that same inning.
But what I found to be even more intriguing than what took place on the field at AT&T Park Thursday night was what was taking place 570 miles southeast in Las Vegas. Despite near identical ERAs entering their much-anticipated showdown (Bumgarner: 2.11, deGrom: 2.30), deGrom’s odds to win the National League Cy Young Award were significantly worse (50/1) than MadBum’s chances (4/1).
The answer to this discrepancy, in part, lies in the oft-misevaluated statistic known as “wins.”
Both Bumgarner and deGrom boasted top-five ERAs, competed for playoff contenders and owned WARs (Wins Above Replacement) north of 3.5 entering Thursday night. But Bumgarner’s 11 victories significantly trumped deGrom’s seven, which I believe was a big factor in the Las Vegas Cy Young odds.
This is a mistake, and it’s a mistake made far too often by fans, voters and media members alike.
Wins is a team metric, not an individual metric. To prove this point, let me ask you a simple question: Which of the following pitchers would you rather have taking the bump for your favorite club in Game 1 of the World Series:
Pitcher A: 10-0 record
Pitcher B: 0-10 record
Based on that information alone, virtually all of you would select Pitcher A and his perfect record. But now let’s add some additional information to the mix:
Pitcher A: 10-0 record, 9.00 ERA, 11 runs of support in every start
Pitcher B: 0-10 record, 1.00 ERA, 0 runs of support in every start
I’m guessing most of you are now leaning toward Pitcher B, correct?
The above example is just one way of illustrating how flawed the win statistic is when utilized to judge individual players. And this doesn’t just happen in baseball. Peyton Manning won a Super Bowl with the Denver Broncos last February, but few would make the case that he was the reason why. In fact, Manning was one of the worst signal-callers in the entire National Football League last year, but he was fortunate enough to play with the NFL’s most ferocious defense.
In addition to starting pitchers and quarterbacks, the win metric is often misevaluated when analyzing NHL goaltenders as well. Simply put, too many variables come into play with team sports to make the mistake of applying a statistic like wins to an individual player. Save that for golf and tennis. If we’re going to evaluate individual players, then let’s at least utilize individual statistics to help create a more accurate analysis.
And with that, let’s take a look at the current Cy Young landscape and see if we can identify any value that may exist:
AMERICAN LEAGUE CY YOUNG ODDS
The Favorite
J.A. Happ, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays (9/4): He’s at the top of the heap because he’s won 11 straight decisions. But note that Happ ranks seventh in the American League in ERA (3.05), 16th in strikeouts (133), 12th in WAR (3.5) and tenth in WHIP (1.14). Take away that 17-3 record and it’s unlikely the 33-year-old is your Cy Young favorite in late August.
The More Deserving Favorite
Cole Hamels, LHP, Texas Rangers (9/2): Outranks Happ in WAR (5.2, 1st), ERA (2.80, 3rd), strikeouts (159, 5th) and innings pitched (160.2, 6th). Additionally, Hamels has surrendered just ten runs through his last seven starts (48.2 innings pitched) and has a date with Cincinnati on the horizon.
The Dark Horse
Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore Orioles (N/A): No relief pitcher has won the Cy Young since Eric Gagne back in 2003, so it’s no surprise to see that Britton has been left off the odds board…for the moment. But Baltimore’s closer has been absolutely electric this season, with a lights out 0.54 ERA and a perfect 37 saves in 37 chances. Believe it or not, Britton hasn’t surrendered a run since April 30 (42 consecutive appearances) and boasts a WAR of 3.1 despite throwing only 50.1 innings this season. Given the exorbitant prices the Cubs paid to land Aroldis Chapman and the Indians surrendered to acquire Andrew Miller, maybe it’s time to revisit the idea of using Cy Young votes on relief pitchers.
The Rest
Rick Porcello, Red Sox: 9/2
Chris Sale, White Sox: 6/1
Steven Wright, Red Sox: 8/1
Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays: 8/1
Chris Tillman, Orioles: 15/1
Corey Kluber, Indians: 18/1
Danny Salazar, Indians: 20/1
Michael Fulmer, Tigers: 40/1
Carlos Carrasco, Indians: 50/1
Jose Quintana, White Sox: 200/1
NATIONAL LEAGUE CY YOUNG ODDS
The Favorite
Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals (5/2): Again, Strasburg’s 15 wins (tied for first in NL with Jake Arrieta) have him overvalued here. What we should be looking at is the fact that the 28-year-old ranks 19th in the National League in ERA (3.59) and 15th in WAR (3.3) while receiving a ridiculous 6.57 runs of support per start (second-most in MLB behind Rick Porcello). On a lesser club with, say, eight wins, Strasburg would be nowhere near the top of the odds board.
The Value Pick
Max Scherzer, RHP, Washington Nationals (15/1): Ranks second in WAR (4.7) among National League pitchers, first in strikeouts (211), third in K/BB (5.15) and third in opponent’s batting average (.194). Unfortunately for Scherzer, his 12 wins rank seventh in the National League and as we’ve already discussed here in this column, that metric carries far too much weight.
The Rest
Jake Arrieta, Cubs: 7/2
Madison Bumgarner, Giants: 4/1
Johnny Cueto, Giants: 4/1
Kyle Hendricks, Cubs: 8/1
Jose Fernandez, Marlins: 15/1
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: 18/1
Jon Lester, Cubs: 50/1
Jacob deGrom, Mets: 50/1
Noah Syndergaard, Mets: 100/1
Jason Hammel, Cubs: 200/1
By JOE FORTENBAUGH
Despite a Major League Baseball-worst 9-21 record since entering the All-Star break with a Major League Baseball-best 57-33 mark, the atmosphere surrounding AT&T Park in San Francisco Thursday night was as electric as a midnight tour through the rarely viewed hospital wing at Alcatraz. Thursday marked the commencement of a four-game series between the freefalling Giants and equally disappointing New York Mets, who had dropped 14 of their previous 21 outings before landing in the Bay Area.
Two baseball clubs in disastrous form rarely makes for must-see television, but this game was different, as the Giants and Mets would turn to staff aces Madison Bumgarner and Jacob deGrom in the hopes of kick-starting a run that would hopefully last until late October. The pregame storyline was simple: Two Cy Young candidates who ranked among the top-five in ERA in all of Major League Baseball doing battle in a series opener that featured a Las Vegas over/under of just 6.0 runs.
30 hits, 17 runs and three hours and thirty minutes later, Bumgarner had his 12th win of the season despite surrendering four earned runs in just five innings of work as the Giants emerged victorious by way of a 10-7 shootout over the defending National League Champions. What was billed as a Cy Young showdown was anything but as deGrom served up a career-high eight runs and 13 hits in five innings pitched while Bumgarner was remembered more for his go-ahead two-run jack in the bottom of the fourth rather than the grand slam meatball he threw Justin Ruggiano earlier that same inning.
But what I found to be even more intriguing than what took place on the field at AT&T Park Thursday night was what was taking place 570 miles southeast in Las Vegas. Despite near identical ERAs entering their much-anticipated showdown (Bumgarner: 2.11, deGrom: 2.30), deGrom’s odds to win the National League Cy Young Award were significantly worse (50/1) than MadBum’s chances (4/1).
The answer to this discrepancy, in part, lies in the oft-misevaluated statistic known as “wins.”
Both Bumgarner and deGrom boasted top-five ERAs, competed for playoff contenders and owned WARs (Wins Above Replacement) north of 3.5 entering Thursday night. But Bumgarner’s 11 victories significantly trumped deGrom’s seven, which I believe was a big factor in the Las Vegas Cy Young odds.
This is a mistake, and it’s a mistake made far too often by fans, voters and media members alike.
Wins is a team metric, not an individual metric. To prove this point, let me ask you a simple question: Which of the following pitchers would you rather have taking the bump for your favorite club in Game 1 of the World Series:
Pitcher A: 10-0 record
Pitcher B: 0-10 record
Based on that information alone, virtually all of you would select Pitcher A and his perfect record. But now let’s add some additional information to the mix:
Pitcher A: 10-0 record, 9.00 ERA, 11 runs of support in every start
Pitcher B: 0-10 record, 1.00 ERA, 0 runs of support in every start
I’m guessing most of you are now leaning toward Pitcher B, correct?
The above example is just one way of illustrating how flawed the win statistic is when utilized to judge individual players. And this doesn’t just happen in baseball. Peyton Manning won a Super Bowl with the Denver Broncos last February, but few would make the case that he was the reason why. In fact, Manning was one of the worst signal-callers in the entire National Football League last year, but he was fortunate enough to play with the NFL’s most ferocious defense.
In addition to starting pitchers and quarterbacks, the win metric is often misevaluated when analyzing NHL goaltenders as well. Simply put, too many variables come into play with team sports to make the mistake of applying a statistic like wins to an individual player. Save that for golf and tennis. If we’re going to evaluate individual players, then let’s at least utilize individual statistics to help create a more accurate analysis.
And with that, let’s take a look at the current Cy Young landscape and see if we can identify any value that may exist:
AMERICAN LEAGUE CY YOUNG ODDS
The Favorite
J.A. Happ, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays (9/4): He’s at the top of the heap because he’s won 11 straight decisions. But note that Happ ranks seventh in the American League in ERA (3.05), 16th in strikeouts (133), 12th in WAR (3.5) and tenth in WHIP (1.14). Take away that 17-3 record and it’s unlikely the 33-year-old is your Cy Young favorite in late August.
The More Deserving Favorite
Cole Hamels, LHP, Texas Rangers (9/2): Outranks Happ in WAR (5.2, 1st), ERA (2.80, 3rd), strikeouts (159, 5th) and innings pitched (160.2, 6th). Additionally, Hamels has surrendered just ten runs through his last seven starts (48.2 innings pitched) and has a date with Cincinnati on the horizon.
The Dark Horse
Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore Orioles (N/A): No relief pitcher has won the Cy Young since Eric Gagne back in 2003, so it’s no surprise to see that Britton has been left off the odds board…for the moment. But Baltimore’s closer has been absolutely electric this season, with a lights out 0.54 ERA and a perfect 37 saves in 37 chances. Believe it or not, Britton hasn’t surrendered a run since April 30 (42 consecutive appearances) and boasts a WAR of 3.1 despite throwing only 50.1 innings this season. Given the exorbitant prices the Cubs paid to land Aroldis Chapman and the Indians surrendered to acquire Andrew Miller, maybe it’s time to revisit the idea of using Cy Young votes on relief pitchers.
The Rest
Rick Porcello, Red Sox: 9/2
Chris Sale, White Sox: 6/1
Steven Wright, Red Sox: 8/1
Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays: 8/1
Chris Tillman, Orioles: 15/1
Corey Kluber, Indians: 18/1
Danny Salazar, Indians: 20/1
Michael Fulmer, Tigers: 40/1
Carlos Carrasco, Indians: 50/1
Jose Quintana, White Sox: 200/1
NATIONAL LEAGUE CY YOUNG ODDS
The Favorite
Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals (5/2): Again, Strasburg’s 15 wins (tied for first in NL with Jake Arrieta) have him overvalued here. What we should be looking at is the fact that the 28-year-old ranks 19th in the National League in ERA (3.59) and 15th in WAR (3.3) while receiving a ridiculous 6.57 runs of support per start (second-most in MLB behind Rick Porcello). On a lesser club with, say, eight wins, Strasburg would be nowhere near the top of the odds board.
The Value Pick
Max Scherzer, RHP, Washington Nationals (15/1): Ranks second in WAR (4.7) among National League pitchers, first in strikeouts (211), third in K/BB (5.15) and third in opponent’s batting average (.194). Unfortunately for Scherzer, his 12 wins rank seventh in the National League and as we’ve already discussed here in this column, that metric carries far too much weight.
The Rest
Jake Arrieta, Cubs: 7/2
Madison Bumgarner, Giants: 4/1
Johnny Cueto, Giants: 4/1
Kyle Hendricks, Cubs: 8/1
Jose Fernandez, Marlins: 15/1
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: 18/1
Jon Lester, Cubs: 50/1
Jacob deGrom, Mets: 50/1
Noah Syndergaard, Mets: 100/1
Jason Hammel, Cubs: 200/1
