SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH -1 +108 over San Diego
We’ll once again turn to spotting -1 run instead of -1½ because it carries less risk, especially with home teams. For those of you that do not have the luxury of playing at a sportsbook that offers this type of wager, it is quite simple to simulate it. The equation is as follows:
The Pirates are -139 on the money line and -1½ +165 on the run line.
Wager part of your units on the money line @ -139. As an example, we’ll use a $100 wager.
Therefore a $100 bet at -139 pays 71.34.
You would then bet $71.34 (we’ll call it $71) as the second part of your bet on the run line @ -1½ +165.
Whatever amount your money line wager pays off, you place that exact amount on the run line.
If the game wins by 1 run, you win $71 in your first bet and lose $71 in your second bet, therefore resulting in a push. If your team wins by 2 or more, you win both wagers, which would be equivalent to +108.
A.J. Burnett has been lights out at home in seven starts with six of those being of the dominating variety. Overall, Burnett owns a 2-2 record at home, a 1.29 ERA, and a 1.13 WHIP in 48.2 innings. He has made five consecutive dominant starts at home, where he has posted a 1.76/1.96 ERA/xERA split. The opposing Padres have the fourth worst OPS in MLB (.668) and that’s when they were going good. Over their last six games, San Diego has scored one run or less four times. They scored twice in one other of those remaining two games. Over the weekend in St. Louis the Padres scored four runs in three games so they figure to come into this series as frustrated as any team in the league. That’s not even the best part of this wager, as our James Shields’ fade continues.
We warned you about Shields three starts ago when he went into Arizona with a 7-0 record and 3.59 ERA. He’s now 7-3 with a 4.14 ERA after allowing 21 hits and 13 earned runs over 16.2 innings. Even that’s been fortunate, as Shields posted an 84% strand rate combined in two of those three starts. Shields’ has also issued 10 free passes over his last three starts in 16.2 innings, which adds up to 31 base-runners (not including errors), over his last 16.2 innings. We also mentioned that no other starter was getting hit harder than Shields was at that time. Well, things have actually gotten worse, as Shields has posted a 42%/32%/24% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate over his last five starts covering 29 innings. The Padres are 0-5 in those starts and unless the Pirates are sleeping, the string of losses for Shields is very likely to continue here.
Atlanta team total over 3½ +100
Very tempting to take the Braves on the money line at +148 (or thereabouts) but the Brewers bats are absolutely on fire and so are the Brewers with eight straight wins. We don’t want to bet against a hot team despite the fact that Kyle Lohse should never be priced in this range. That leaves us playing the Braves over the number. Unless Lohse gets extremely lucky, Atlanta has a great chance to go over this number in five innings, let along nine. In 46.1 innings at Miller Park this year, Lohse has allowed 60 hits (oppBA of .313) and 42 earned runs (8.16 ERA). What makes the Braves even more appealing here is that they are one of the most patient teams at the plate, working deep into counts while wearing out pitchers in the process. It gets frustrating for any pitcher when they can’t finish off guys. Atlanta’s 266 strikeouts this season ranks them among the top teams with the fewest strikeouts. The Braves will put wood to the rock here. This is a pure hitter’s park where Lohse’s profile does not play well at.
PITTSBURGH -1 +108 over San Diego
We’ll once again turn to spotting -1 run instead of -1½ because it carries less risk, especially with home teams. For those of you that do not have the luxury of playing at a sportsbook that offers this type of wager, it is quite simple to simulate it. The equation is as follows:
The Pirates are -139 on the money line and -1½ +165 on the run line.
Wager part of your units on the money line @ -139. As an example, we’ll use a $100 wager.
Therefore a $100 bet at -139 pays 71.34.
You would then bet $71.34 (we’ll call it $71) as the second part of your bet on the run line @ -1½ +165.
Whatever amount your money line wager pays off, you place that exact amount on the run line.
If the game wins by 1 run, you win $71 in your first bet and lose $71 in your second bet, therefore resulting in a push. If your team wins by 2 or more, you win both wagers, which would be equivalent to +108.
A.J. Burnett has been lights out at home in seven starts with six of those being of the dominating variety. Overall, Burnett owns a 2-2 record at home, a 1.29 ERA, and a 1.13 WHIP in 48.2 innings. He has made five consecutive dominant starts at home, where he has posted a 1.76/1.96 ERA/xERA split. The opposing Padres have the fourth worst OPS in MLB (.668) and that’s when they were going good. Over their last six games, San Diego has scored one run or less four times. They scored twice in one other of those remaining two games. Over the weekend in St. Louis the Padres scored four runs in three games so they figure to come into this series as frustrated as any team in the league. That’s not even the best part of this wager, as our James Shields’ fade continues.
We warned you about Shields three starts ago when he went into Arizona with a 7-0 record and 3.59 ERA. He’s now 7-3 with a 4.14 ERA after allowing 21 hits and 13 earned runs over 16.2 innings. Even that’s been fortunate, as Shields posted an 84% strand rate combined in two of those three starts. Shields’ has also issued 10 free passes over his last three starts in 16.2 innings, which adds up to 31 base-runners (not including errors), over his last 16.2 innings. We also mentioned that no other starter was getting hit harder than Shields was at that time. Well, things have actually gotten worse, as Shields has posted a 42%/32%/24% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate over his last five starts covering 29 innings. The Padres are 0-5 in those starts and unless the Pirates are sleeping, the string of losses for Shields is very likely to continue here.
Atlanta team total over 3½ +100
Very tempting to take the Braves on the money line at +148 (or thereabouts) but the Brewers bats are absolutely on fire and so are the Brewers with eight straight wins. We don’t want to bet against a hot team despite the fact that Kyle Lohse should never be priced in this range. That leaves us playing the Braves over the number. Unless Lohse gets extremely lucky, Atlanta has a great chance to go over this number in five innings, let along nine. In 46.1 innings at Miller Park this year, Lohse has allowed 60 hits (oppBA of .313) and 42 earned runs (8.16 ERA). What makes the Braves even more appealing here is that they are one of the most patient teams at the plate, working deep into counts while wearing out pitchers in the process. It gets frustrating for any pitcher when they can’t finish off guys. Atlanta’s 266 strikeouts this season ranks them among the top teams with the fewest strikeouts. The Braves will put wood to the rock here. This is a pure hitter’s park where Lohse’s profile does not play well at.
